Talk Elections

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IF held today = Obama 303 / Romney 235(-34)
   "Swing" = Obama 243(-27) / Romney 206(-63) / Toss 89
"swing score"= Obama 60     /  Romney 29
Closest states to becoming tossups = NC, NV

Rhode Island is a tossup?

no, it was left blank... corrected.

The only poll showing Obama not leading in Florida since May has been Purple Strategies, an uproven pollster with no track record. Calling the state slight Romney makes no sense.

CO is more of a tossup than NV, you're wrong on that. VA is barely for Obama, and AZ is solid Romney based on polls. FL is tossup still.

everything you said, is the way I have it.  ...except for the part about me being wrong.

I haven't seen a single poll with Romney ahead in NV; the same cannot be said for CO.

PPP has it O+1
Purple = R + 3
Quinnipiac looks all messed up with useless registered voter samples.

You should acknowledge their really hasn't been much good polling done in Florida lately.  

Also SurveyUSA has Obama +5 and Mason-Dixon has Obama +1. At worst (for Obama), the state is a tie. Also the last Quinnipiac poll was likely voters, not registered.

Yea... CO IS a tossup.  NV is the closest lean dem state to becoming a tossup.  

It's Romney+1 on the map.  I'll flip it when I see some better polling for either side.  I could have left it blank, but I think it's better to leave it very slight lean R until we have some reason to think otherwise.  The state leans that way, Romney has been out of the country, The Veepstakes are around the corner, and the convention is in Tampa for crying out loud.       

Watch Obama win NV by double digits again.

Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.

That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.

After Reid beating the polls by so much in 2010, it wouldn't surprise me. Nevada's only grown more hispanic since 2008.

Like how?  more D? or even?

I'm still wondering how Florida is under Romney's camp.

Even.

Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.

It has been tied in CO though.

Hah. Spoke too soon.

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that's really good news

Something happened to Connecticut...

yea, I'm finding weird things happen when you drag an image.  They particularly happen in the southern region of New England. 

Not really, that Colorado poll by Quinnipac has multiple markers of being heavily skewed towards the Republicans.  Once you correct for any of them, it is a slight Obama poll, not a Lean Romney.

Dodgy poll puts Mitt up in Colorado, while two other polls released the same day show a tie and an equal Obama lead = Romney narrowly leads in Colorado?

Well it's good to know that this map is a complete joke then.

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IF held today = Obama 288         / Romney 235(-34)    / Toss 15
"Swing_less" = Obama 243(-27) / Romney 206(-63)   / Toss 89
"swing score"= Obama 45          /  Romney 29           / Toss 15
IN "Swing_State-us" = 8 states.  =less(23 R / 19[+DC] D)
Closest states to becoming tossups = NC, NV

My swing state map:
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Obama- 193
Romney- 191
Toss-Up- 154

Yes, but remember, Reid was helped by the impression of Angle as a right-wing extremist (ala Goldwater 1964), the fake "Tea Party" candidate, and the "None of these candidates" option on the ballot.  If Sue Lowden had been the GOP nominee, she would have beat him.  That's the problem with ideological purity: half a loaf is better than no bread, and if we aren't willing to have to victory of some of our policies rather than the defeat of all of them, we will never be able to govern long-term.  And also, Nevada has a large Mormon population, so that could help Romne offset Obama's margins with Latinos.

How is it possible to consider New Mexico a tossup at this point?

Yea, I have a "pinned" category where a swing-ish state shows a solid/consistent/likely lean, even though it is quite possible that it could theoretically flip.  Obama has PA, MI, NM, and NV "pinned" right now.  I expect NV will become pure-swing eventually.  NM and MI are other possibilities.  Romney has NC and will probably have FL (if he maintains a slight lead in national polls) pinned, especially after the VP and convention bumps.        

Trend and history.  Obama at 42% is a pretty freighting thing for an incumbent president.  I have it as a pinned-down-swing-state, but it could become competitive relatively easily.     

New Mexico is a swing state, and remember, Gore only carried it by 366 votes in 2000 and Bush narrowly carried it in 2004.

Bush was able to actually appeal to Hispanics. McCain didn't and I see no reason to believe that Romney will either.

Good point, but it's still a swing state.  The only thing that will change that is a realignment on the level of 1980 or 1992.

Before:
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After:
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...looks like a nice little trend toward Romney/Ryan.  They have certainly established a path to victory.   

What's your evidence that Ryan is helping in IA or VA, or that WI is anything but a tossup.

Why is SC more Republican than Louisiana, Tennessee,  Arkansas, or Kentucky?

Louisiana should be more Republican than South Carolina.  Arizona should be more Republican than Missouri. New Mexico, Nevada, lean Obama.

While the margin of Mitt's victory may well be smaller than that of  Louisiana, Tennessee,  Arkansas, or Kentucky, it is safely Mitt's.  We have compared to most places a very small middle. (Politically that is, we don't fare as well on obesity.)  Nate Silver pointed out on his 538 blog that SC has the third smallest swing according to his measures.  Mitt has no chance of getting 60% of the vote here, but he also has no chance of getting less than 50%.

Nevada is still a swing state, even if Obama leads in the polls there.  And they also have a large Mormon population that could help Romney offset Pres. Obama's likely margins with Latinos there.

If you look at the swing state maps at NBC, CNN, WaPo and RCP they all agree the following are swing states: NV, NH, WI, IA, CO, OH, VA, FL.

A couple also still list NC as a swing state other two list as lean Romney. All are calling PA, MI, and NM as lean Obama. If you look at current spending, neither campaign is putting much into those three states.