Title: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Likely Voter on August 08, 2012, 05:16:43 AM Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS Poll on Swing States
Wisconsin Obama: 51 Romney: 45 Virginia Obama 49 Romney: 45 Colorado Obama 45 Romney: 50 Likely Voters, 7/31-8/6/12 Article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/us/politics/polls-see-sharp-divide-in-3-swing-states.html?hp Graphs: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-polls Details: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/08/us/politics/08poll-results-documents.html This is a follow up to last weeks NYT/CBS Swing State Poll of FL, OH, PA discussed here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156770.0 Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 08, 2012, 05:22:09 AM That Colorado poll is bizarre.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 08, 2012, 05:25:01 AM That Colorado poll is bizarre. Yeah, in 2008 it was more Democratic than Virginia but now it's 9 points more Republican? Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Eraserhead on August 08, 2012, 06:28:45 AM Officially confused about Colorado now. Polls are all over the place there.
The Wisconsin and Virginia numbers have been a lot more consistent. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Supersonic on August 08, 2012, 07:11:46 AM Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected.
Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Phony Moderate on August 08, 2012, 07:14:32 AM Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney?
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 08, 2012, 08:02:52 AM Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected. Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'. And if you ignore Rasmussen polls while standing on your head and switch all 4s to 8s you get purple monkey dishwasher. Lets be honest here... its likely that Q had a bad poll and we're all freaking out about nothing... especially when you consider that Romney has NEVER LEAD IN A CO POLL in our database and this is the first time Q is polling the state. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: pepper11 on August 08, 2012, 08:12:00 AM Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected. Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'. And if you ignore Rasmussen polls while standing on your head and switch all 4s to 8s you get purple monkey dishwasher. Lets be honest here... its likely that Q had a bad poll and we're all freaking out about nothing... especially when you consider that Romney has NEVER LEAD IN A CO POLL in our database and this is the first time Q is polling the state. Bain attacks probably backfired. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: krazen1211 on August 08, 2012, 08:13:19 AM PPP puts out garbage and Ras puts out polls at the polling average. How interesting.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Eraserhead on August 08, 2012, 08:21:11 AM Anybody else find it amusing to see Virginia and Wisconsin voting almost identically now?
Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected. Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'. And if you ignore Rasmussen polls while standing on your head and switch all 4s to 8s you get purple monkey dishwasher. Lets be honest here... its likely that Q had a bad poll and we're all freaking out about nothing... especially when you consider that Romney has NEVER LEAD IN A CO POLL in our database and this is the first time Q is polling the state. Bain attacks probably backfired. In Colorado only? Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: President von Cat on August 08, 2012, 08:44:30 AM Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Likely Voter on August 08, 2012, 08:49:55 AM I dont think the Bain ads ran in CO, plus both campaigns went off the air after Aurora.
When you look at the data, the CO crosstabs are odd. Not only does it have GOP +10 weight, the age breakdown has 38% of 65+ (it was 22% in 2010, which was a GOP wave year). I think it is just an outlier (like Quinnipiac's FL poll from last week). But put them all in the blender and you get a close race in CO, probably right around the nat'l avg. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 08, 2012, 09:30:22 AM The Colorado poll was discredited by Daily Kos, when it was discovered that the poll was almost 40% people over 65.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 08, 2012, 09:42:40 AM As a Obama supporter I find the Colorado numbers disappointing but I will not dismiss them out of hand just because I don't like them. Add them to the mix and it looks like Colorado is closer to a tossup than I thought. Wisconsin and Virginia are right in line with other polling.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 08, 2012, 09:47:06 AM As a Obama supporter I find the Colorado numbers disappointing but I will not dismiss them out of hand just because I don't like them. Add them to the mix and it looks like Colorado is closer to a tossup than I thought. Wisconsin and Virginia are right in line with other polling. Actually, the polls from Wisconsin and Virginia are also a little more Republican than other polls. Quinnipiac isn't exactly known for left-leaning polls. These are the geniuses who had a potential "right-to-work" referendum winning in Ohio. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Umengus on August 08, 2012, 10:01:28 AM Party id:
CO: R+5 VA: D +7 WI: D +7 Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 08, 2012, 10:03:37 AM Party id: CO: R+5 VA: D +7 WI: D +7 In other words, massive Quinnipiac fail. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: 5280 on August 08, 2012, 10:16:51 AM Good to see some positive signs.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: DrScholl on August 08, 2012, 10:19:32 AM The Colorado poll is just wrong, Romney hasn't posted any leads like that in Colorado in any polling, why exactly would that change? Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: ajc0918 on August 08, 2012, 10:30:28 AM Party id: CO: R+5 VA: D +7 WI: D +7 In other words, massive Quinnipiac fail. What should they be? Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: krazen1211 on August 08, 2012, 11:27:43 AM Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll. but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times. Lol. Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: mondale84 on August 08, 2012, 11:33:41 AM Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll. but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times. Lol. Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway. 38% of Colorado poll respondents are over 65...this is a definite outlier. Also, no way Romney is +5 in Colorado when Scott Rasshack puts it tied...Obama +3 or so. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: krazen1211 on August 08, 2012, 11:36:45 AM Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll. but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times. Lol. Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway. 38% of Colorado poll respondents are over 65...this is a definite outlier. Also, no way Romney is +5 in Colorado when Scott Rasshack puts it tied...Obama +3 or so. Try again with actual math. Reducing the number of Republicans by 3-4% won't shift the poll by 8 points. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: mondale84 on August 08, 2012, 11:51:24 AM Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll. but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times. Lol. Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway. 38% of Colorado poll respondents are over 65...this is a definite outlier. Also, no way Romney is +5 in Colorado when Scott Rasshack puts it tied...Obama +3 or so. Try again with actual math. Reducing the number of Republicans by 3-4% won't shift the poll by 8 points. Math on a outlier poll is useless. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: krazen1211 on August 08, 2012, 12:00:41 PM Math on a outlier poll is useless. As is, of course, the random arbitrary musings of someone deciding that Obama is leading by 3 points when the polls show otherwise. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 12:03:15 PM Meh. If Obama takes Virginia and Wisconsin, it doesn't matter what Colorado does. That said, this poll feels really wrong.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 08, 2012, 12:04:16 PM The metric I like to look at when they include it is the "who did you vote for last time" question.
Colorado: Poll: O+2 Actual: O+9 Virginia: Poll: O+9 Actual: O+7 Wisconsin: Poll:O+13 Actual: O+14 Granted, people can move between states, forget who they voted for, or simply lie to the pollster, But those numbers are another indication that the Colorado result is skewed towards the Republicans since the difference is beyond the MoE for the poll. If one were to adjust the toplines to have the poll samples conform to actual 2008 results, you'd end up with: CO: O+2, VA: O+2, WI: O+7. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 12:10:02 PM Random factoid: This is the first non-Rasmussen poll in two weeks to show Romney winning a state.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: DrScholl on August 08, 2012, 12:19:32 PM Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll. but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times. Lol. Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway. Why do you always quote old posts? Anyway, you aren't proving a point, because I didn't say Quinnipiac deliberately rigged the numbers. You fail, as usual. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 08, 2012, 12:20:01 PM Random factoid: This is the first non-Rasmussen poll in two weeks to show Romney winning a state. You mean swing state Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 12:25:14 PM Random factoid: This is the first non-Rasmussen poll in two weeks to show Romney winning a state. You mean swing state Going off the database, the last time Romney was ahead in a non-Rasmussen poll happened in a poll conducted on July 26, which I suppose is a day short of two weeks. If you count Missouri as a swing state, July 25, two weeks ago, was the last Romney lead. If not, there's that random Michigan poll on July 23. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Umengus on August 08, 2012, 01:08:29 PM Q is a university pollster and universities are trash pollsters.
But a R+5 in colorado is not impossible compared to 2008 (R+1) and considering that Republicans will turn out better... IMO, the 2008 model will not be the 2012 model... Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 08, 2012, 01:35:04 PM Q is a university pollster and universities are trash pollsters. But a R+5 in colorado is not impossible compared to 2008 (R+1) and considering that Republicans will turn out better... IMO, the 2008 model will not be the 2012 model... FWIW Exit polls in 2010 had Dems +5 in Colorado http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#COS01p1 Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 08, 2012, 02:01:39 PM Come on folks. The Colorado poll is obviously bad. Its internals don't make sense, its toplines don't make sense. You're not going to betray the cause by admitting that this poll stinks.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on August 08, 2012, 02:03:39 PM I actually thought that Quinnipiac was one of the more reliable university pollsters.*
*Then again, their 2010 CT polls weren't that great, IIRC. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Tender Branson on August 08, 2012, 02:04:48 PM Yepp Lief, if 2010 is an indicator, the "likely voter polls" which currently show a GOP advantage might as well be D+3, which changes everything. Especially there are polls now and polls after the first week of September ...
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: 5280 on August 08, 2012, 02:17:58 PM Some of you guys need to stop fantasizing CO being a very liberal state, it's annoying. We are clearly a competitive state, and will always be like that.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: mondale84 on August 08, 2012, 02:23:42 PM Some of you guys need to stop fantasizing CO being a very liberal state, it's annoying. We are clearly a competitive state, and will always be like that. LOL...obvious hack is obvious Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Person Man on August 08, 2012, 02:27:30 PM Though not as hackish as saying the GOP is destined to make Colorado back into the right-wing political backwater it was in the late 90s and early 2000s.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: pepper11 on August 08, 2012, 02:28:50 PM Come on folks. The Colorado poll is obviously bad. Its internals don't make sense, its toplines don't make sense. You're not going to betray the cause by admitting that this poll stinks. Where was the outrage with the pew poll that had 18 % GOP. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Sbane on August 08, 2012, 02:32:17 PM How many people here actually believed Obama was up by double digits? Only Bandit?
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 08, 2012, 02:53:33 PM Come on folks. The Colorado poll is obviously bad. Its internals don't make sense, its toplines don't make sense. You're not going to betray the cause by admitting that this poll stinks. Where was the outrage with the pew poll that had 18 % GOP. The entire board agreed that poll was a ridiculous outlier with severe structural flaws. Just like this one is. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: backtored on August 08, 2012, 03:32:21 PM Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney? One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain. The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest. It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states." And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway. So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: backtored on August 08, 2012, 03:35:00 PM Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt. We've had plenty of them here in the Denver area. And they're probably helped Romney rather than hurt him. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: backtored on August 08, 2012, 03:38:15 PM Party id: CO: R+5 VA: D +7 WI: D +7 In other words, massive Quinnipiac fail. Active voter registration in Colorado is R +5. Q nailed it. Colorado is shaping up to be a race very similar to the 2010 Senate race, where the Republican led by a handful for the most of the race, only to be caught from behind at the very end. The rproblem for the president is that Mitt Romney actually appeals to the same sorts of people that Ken Buck turned off: suburban women. The fact is that Romney has a clearer path to victory in Colorado than Mr. Obama. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: backtored on August 08, 2012, 03:44:56 PM Though not as hackish as saying the GOP is destined to make Colorado back into the right-wing political backwater it was in the late 90s and early 2000s. Colorado was never the beacon of conservative thought people think it was. Never. President Clinton took the state in '92, the same year that Amendment 2 passed. In 2000 President Bush won by 9 points, but Ralph Nader did quite well, taking votes for Gore, and medical marijuana also passed. In 2006 Democrats swept everything, but the marriage amendment passed by 10 points, marijuana legalization lost by 20 points, and civil unions lost on the ballot. The whole liberal narrative is built on the idea that demographics somehow turned a super-red state blue. That's wrong on two accounts. First, Colorado has always been a relatively independent state. Bill Owens was the first Republican governor in a really long time, and the state has a history of ticket-splitting and wild politics. Second, it's not at all a blue state now. Republicans have a solid active registration advantage, and the state continues to be an anti-tax haven with strong social conservative elements. We'll see how things shake out in November, but this poll indicates that Colorado hasn't changed that much at all. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: 5280 on August 08, 2012, 03:59:59 PM Colorado is a politically polarized state much like the nation. The Republican and Democrat parties can be extreme at times, Denver and Boulder are liberal and CO Springs and Highlands Ranch is conservative, which are the hotspots for both parties.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: cinyc on August 08, 2012, 04:38:03 PM The metric I like to look at when they include it is the "who did you vote for last time" question. Colorado: Poll: O+2 Actual: O+9 Virginia: Poll: O+9 Actual: O+7 Wisconsin: Poll:O+13 Actual: O+14 Granted, people can move between states, forget who they voted for, or simply lie to the pollster, But those numbers are another indication that the Colorado result is skewed towards the Republicans since the difference is beyond the MoE for the poll. If one were to adjust the toplines to have the poll samples conform to actual 2008 results, you'd end up with: CO: O+2, VA: O+2, WI: O+7. You can't do that. Poll samples on the "who did you vote for in the last election" question often don't match the previous results for various reasons - people who voted in the previous election fail the likely voter screen because they aren't as enthusiastic about voting this time or moved in or out of the state or died or have buyer's remorse about who they voted for the last time and lie to pollsters or whatever. The 2008 electorate isn't the same as the 2012 electorate. That said, the CO poll seems a bit off. But I wouldn't doubt a small Romney lead. Obama is campaigning there today for a reason. The state is at least close, not some Democratic blowout. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: ajb on August 08, 2012, 05:17:21 PM Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney? One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain. The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest. It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states." And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway. So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all. Except that Ohio and Michigan aren't actually swinging toward Romney. They've both moved noticeably towards Obama in the past month or so: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 08, 2012, 05:33:50 PM Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney? One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain. The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest. It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states." And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway. So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all. Except that Ohio and Michigan aren't actually swinging toward Romney. They've both moved noticeably towards Obama in the past month or so: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html No, you misunderstand, he's admitting that it's working in Ohio and Michigan but saying that it's a different story out in Colorado. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: ajb on August 08, 2012, 05:57:28 PM Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney? One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain. The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest. It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states." And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway. So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all. Except that Ohio and Michigan aren't actually swinging toward Romney. They've both moved noticeably towards Obama in the past month or so: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html No, you misunderstand, he's admitting that it's working in Ohio and Michigan but saying that it's a different story out in Colorado. Whoops, misread that. Sorry! Anyway, I don't think there's any evidence that Colorado is moving towards Romney, either. If you compare like polls with like, there's been very little change in the last few months in Colorado -- Rasmussen has had the race tied, PPP has had Obama up by 6 or 7, Purple Strategies has had Obama up by 1 or 2, or the race tied. We haven't had one of these CBS/NYT/Q-Pac polls of CO before, so it's hard to know how to read it, but given that the simultaneously-released PPP and Rasmussen polls show no change, I think it's unlikely that there's been much of a shift at all in CO. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 08, 2012, 06:10:20 PM I also can't get past that bizarre two-fifths senior citizens sampling error.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: pbrower2a on August 08, 2012, 10:23:59 PM The metric I like to look at when they include it is the "who did you vote for last time" question. Colorado: Poll: O+2 Actual: O+9 Virginia: Poll: O+9 Actual: O+7 Wisconsin: Poll:O+13 Actual: O+14 Granted, people can move between states, forget who they voted for, or simply lie to the pollster, But those numbers are another indication that the Colorado result is skewed towards the Republicans since the difference is beyond the MoE for the poll. If one were to adjust the toplines to have the poll samples conform to actual 2008 results, you'd end up with: CO: O+2, VA: O+2, WI: O+7. You can't do that. Poll samples on the "who did you vote for in the last election" question often don't match the previous results for various reasons - people who voted in the previous election fail the likely voter screen because they aren't as enthusiastic about voting this time or moved in or out of the state or died or have buyer's remorse about who they voted for the last time and lie to pollsters or whatever. The 2008 electorate isn't the same as the 2012 electorate. That said, the CO poll seems a bit off. But I wouldn't doubt a small Romney lead. Obama is campaigning there today for a reason. The state is at least close, not some Democratic blowout. Transposition errors are rare, but they happen. I would have been more likely to believe that Quinnipiac would have Obama up 5 in Colorado than down 5 when Rasmussen shows a tie and PPP shows a small Obama lead. If it is a transposition error, then Quinnipiac will correct it fast. Checking it against the previous election is valid. If a state went 53-46 for Republican A against Democrat B in 2004 and a representative sample of those voters now goes 46-53 for Democrat A' against Republican B' in 2008 then something is very different. Polls can do one thing reliably: show whether candidates are poaching what was recent and necessary (if perhaps flimsy) support of what might have been a winning campaign in recent years. One would have expected statewide polls to show such between 1976 and 1980 for reasons that should have been obvious. Carter was a disappointment as President who beat an incumbent who had been appointed to the Vice-Presidency after never having won a statewide election and Reagan had smoothed out his reputation as a hard-liner while becoming a slick politician. In 2008 John McCain had a better life story.... but he faced a Democratic nominee far stronger than John Kerry in scary economic times. Barack Obama is as slick a politician as he was in 2008; he is a good strategist. If the economy is worse than it was in 2007, then expectations are also lower. Could it be that an effective leader successfully gets people to lower their expectations instead of promising the impossible? FDR did that; Jimmy Carter didn't. All in all I can state that the Presidential election of 2008 will, barring unforeseen and unpredictable events or (now) unquantifiable effects of recent behaviors, look much like the Presidential election of 2008. In essence Barack Obama is in roughly the same position that he was in in August 2008 with far fewer ways in which to lose than in which to win. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: morgieb on August 09, 2012, 03:13:08 AM Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney? Romney probably has better appeal to independents there than 08 McCain did. Title: Re: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 Post by: Person Man on August 12, 2012, 04:29:41 PM Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney? Romney probably has better appeal to independents there than 08 McCain did. but McCain was a "Maverick". Even liberal college professors in 2004 were upset they didn't get a chance to vote for him against Gore...and McCain lurched to the right slower than Romney did and they both picked young radicals to be their running mate. |