Talk Elections

Editor's Note: The D.C. metro phone survey was conducted among 550 adults age 18 and over, between July 26 and July 29, 2012.

This included representative samples of 200 people in Virginia (Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford) 250 in Maryland (Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George's and 100 in D.C.

DC: 83-11 Obama

MD: 65-22 Obama

NoVa: 48-46 Obama

http://www.wtop.com/120/2984147/Obama-Romney-in-NoVa-dead-heat

Obama's gonna have to do better than that in NoVa.

This poll left out the independent cities in Virginia, where Obama blows the competition away.

Yeah that's what I suspected. The poll is highly doubtful.

MOE on 200 is +/- 7%, too.

Yeah polls of 200 people are basically useless.

It only excludes Fredricksburg, Alexandria and Manassas. Even excluding those cities, you would really expect Obama to at least have a 10 point lead in NOVA. The high margin of error is worth noting though.

There has been quite the liberal push back on poll number today. Must be a changing tide for Romney.

Are you trying to be a joke poster?

Have you seen the thread on the colorado poll with Romney ahead? Ever dem on the board is trashing it.  There were no such outcries when pew had a national pol with GOP at 18%.

He is a joke poster.





Also, LOL at outfits that poll counties and "regions"

Alexandria is quite large, and the area has more independent cities than just those 3.

Lolno. Try again:

As a Person just pointed out, the only one who said that poll was even remotely plausible was the troll Bandit who typically claims to think normal polls are skewed roughly 10 points too Republican.

You are an idiot or a troll. Either way, you've been added to my ignore list.  (I used to have a short ignore list, then 2012 happened.)

Anyway, should we consider adding the DC subsample to the database?  Granted, a 10% MoE poll in normal circumstances shouldn't be entered, but we're not likely to get many, if any, better polls for DC.

Do we really need DC polls in the database?

It might help those wondering whether to put Obama the 80% decile or the 90% decile in their predictions.

Anyway, entered:
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1120120729106 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1120120729106)

Falls Church and Fairfax have 14 people in them.  Ain't gonna help much

**************


This is such a weird poll.  Who just polls a metro area?  Anne Arundel and Calvert are not DC metro, neither is Spotsylvania

Why are we so sure this poll excludes the independent cities?  Simply because the editor's note did not laboriously list them?  I don't think so. And when the poll was conducted, if someone said they were from Alexandria, the poll would exclude them, when purporting to poll NOVA? Really?  Please connect the dots guys. It seems ludicrous to me. Sure maybe the pollsters are nutters, but you guys will need a smoking gun to make your case here, like some admission from them that that is exactly what they did, because they are in fact nuts. Thank you.

It doesn't explain the inclusion on rural areas in the Maryland part.

This poll sucks, move along.

The story "laboriously" noted the seven counties of NoVa they polled. If you want to argue that the cities were included, the burden of proof is on you.

Really?  If that is your ruling, I think I am going to have to file a writ of mandamus with the appellate court.

Circumstantial evidence just isn't your thing is it?  Hi, I am calling for the Perfect Polling People ("PPP") to ask if you plan to vote for POTUS this year, and if so for whom, and by the way, please tell me also where you live. I live in Alexandria. Oh, you live in Alexandria? I feel so sorry for you. No, we don't want your worthless little opinion, because you live in an independent city, and those suck, and if we had our way, you would not be able to vote at all. Have a nice day.

I agree with Torie.  The idea that they explicitly ignored the independent cities, or somehow forgot to include them, seems unrealistic, even if the copy is vague.

I emailed the author of the story for a clarification, specifically asking if Alexndria, Fredericksburg, etc. had been polled. She repeated the list of counties, and said "Those are the designated areas we are told where the polling took place."

Or in another words, she doesn't know and just knows what she is told.


What were the NOVA results in 2008?

Excluding the cities it was 56.7-43.3 Obama. Excluding Arlington County as well it was 55.5-45.5. And including all the cities it was 57.6-42.4. So anyway you cut it, this is a bad poll for Obama.

So, she's basically saying the pollster sent her a list of those, and refusing to make any further inference.  I think this is a case where you need to contact the pollster directly.

So is Romney losing massive ground in SW VA or something? Otherwise the numbers wouldn't make sense with where we know VA to be at right now (Obama by 3-5).

I sent them the same email just now, but the public email address is undeliverable. It's after business hours, so I can't call.

But needless to say my confidence in this firm is not increased.

Hmm, thanks for the legwork on this!  Bizarre all-around

Junk poll from a junk firm.

I think it's safe to just assume this isn't a very good poll and these are probably not very good numbers. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Mitt Romney gets fewer votes out of SW VA than McCain did. Really Romney should be doing better than McCain in NoVA, so the fact that Obama hasn't lost that much of his 2008 margin in the state means he's making up ground somewhere else.

Obviously we don't really know regional details like this at this point, but it wouldn't surprise me if Obama is outperforming 2008 in Hampton Roads. Romney is a much worse candidate for the military community there than McCain, and Obama is probably a better candidate for them now than in 2008. The  first of these is kind of true for rural VA, but the second isn't.

The areas that they did clearly poll still should have Obama a good lead.  The sample size is, however, low.

If it is actually an accurate poll, Obama is trouble in VA, but I do question if it is accurate.