Talk Elections

MO Sen. candidate Todd Akin said today he "isn't a quitter" but Crossroads and the GOP are pulling money out and a number of Republicans are calling for him to pull out.

Here is what NRSCC chairman Cornyn said in a statement

Anyone else get a Mob 'bad things could happen' vibe from that statement?

If he is going to drop out, his words today sure seem to imply otherwise:

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"That's a nice campaign you got there. Be a shame if anything happened to it..."

Weiner wanted to stay in at first too -- I think Akin will be financially starved and placed in a position where he has to go (or lose by double-digits)...

The deadline for his dropout though is tommorow.

Please, please stay, Todd. Well, at least for another 23 hours and 42 minutes.

If he had another week in which to drop out, I think he'd go, but I don't think he'll decide by tomorrow that he can't come back from this.  Plus if he drops out now, he has no political future whatsoever.  He can't hope to bounce back unless he remains in the campaign.

Well, he's 65, so he doesn't really have a long career ahead of him.

TPM seems to imply tomorrow's deadline isn't solid. He can drop out over the following five weeks, he'd just need a waiver from a judge for that to happen, and those waivers are given out easily.

I live in Akin's district...people here are outraged...I've already gotten calls from polls suggesting Danforth or Brunner might run in his place.

John Danforth wouldn't be able to get nominated to anything as a Republican in Missouri in 2012.

If I were Claire McCaskill, I'd be trying to see if I could get an endorsement or two from some moderate Republican officeholder out of this. Maybe Jo Ann Emerson.

From PPP's Twitter feed, it looks like they're polling Missouri tonight, and will have numbers out within a few hours.  The poll may well determine what Akin decides to do tomorrow.

If Akin stays in the race, will we nonetheless see a large fraction of his campaign staff quit on him?

If they have a lick of sense, they will.

Especially financial sense, since they probably will face difficulty in terms of getting a pay check from his campaign.

i suspect his campaign is true believers. I think his wife is his campaign manager.

PPP previews their poll release:

"After all that Akin STILL leads McCaskill, 44-43. Little difference from our last poll which was Akin 45-44."

"75% of Missouri voters think Akin's comments were inappropriate, but they're still voting along party lines."

Wow.

If PPP is biased, then they would be giving an Akin a boost right now to keep him in the race. Just sayin'. ;)

I'm not sure if I'm saddened that people would still vote for someone who could say something so idiotic or happy that people are taking slip-ups well.

Either way this scares me about voters.

Looked like the Show me state has showed us how stupid they are.

Sometime in the not so distant future, Akin will wake up to find a severed horse head in his bed and Brunner will be secretly informed that if worse comes to worse, a meeting will be set up with Akin present.  The gun will be hidden behind the toilet in the restaurant bathroom.

I'm not saying it will stay this way but imagine how foolish McCaskill would look after helping this guy become the nominee, watch as he completely melts down...and still lose to him. Yikes.

I've lived in Missouri for the past year and the people of this state show me every day how stupid they are.

Hmm, if he stays in and actually remains competitive, I'm sure Republicans will find a way to pump money to him without looking hypocritical. This is unfortunate - this just gives him more of an excuse to stay in the race.

Akin has led in every poll for a while. He was definitely favored to win before this comment. Maybe he'll narrowly lose now. The current Virginia Republican nominee for Senate knows how these things go.

This looks like a case of "the better it gets, the worse it gets".  If Akin can poll competitively for a while (at least until late September, beyond which point I think it's impossible for him to get off the ballot), then he may stay in the race.  Yet McCaskill will get an infusion of $ that's bigger than she would have otherwise gotten, and Akin will not get the outside support he needs.  Sure, they may pump some $ in covertly, but it won't be as much as he would get in a normal competitive race like this.  Plus Akin will get no support from prominent surrogates, because other politicians won't want to be seen with him, and some of his own campaign staff may leave.

Best scenario for the GOP would be poll numbers that looked so bad that Akin could have been convinced to drop out, but the PPP numbers suggest that may not be coming.

The sample is more gop than '10

Life is beautiful.

We are at the height of the scandal right now and I guess Akin will recover from this blunder if he stays in the race (which I find the most likely scenario). Akin's favorability ratings are probably going to improve if he manages to lead a flawless campaign in the next weeks while McCaskill's numbers are unlikely to change much. So Akin still has a good chance to win this race.

Lol, now we Dem hacks will take this at face value while the GOP hacks will argue that we should renorm it for the 2006 electorate.

If Akin's smart, he'll realize Rove and Cornyn are bluffing and will have to spend money here in October if he stays in and within striking distance.

Because if there's one thing Akin has proven, it's that he can run a flawless campaign ;)

But I don't see him getting the same level of support that a candidate in a similarly competitive race would have gotten under normal circumstances.  Enough party elders have declared Akin politically radioactive now that they'll have to be careful about how they handle this.  My gut tells me that Eraserhead's instincts here are right:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157837.msg3393574#msg3393574

that Akin is probably toast one way or the other.  Even if the race is tied right now, I have the feeling that Akin is in a political death spiral.....though I'm uncertain about whether the death spiral will be slow enough that he'll decide to take his chances and stay in the race regardless.

The payoff for Akin means that even if his chance of winning is 25%, he should stay in. If it's 10%, he should stay in. The lesson of Rand Paul and god knows what other teabaggers from 2010 plus this poll show he can win. What's more, republicans have so successfully blackballed him that he has no reason to drop out. A nice appointment in the Romney administration? A cushy job at a Koch-funded "think tank"? Those could lure him out, but now they're off the table.

This guy has nothing to lose and a poll showing he's got something to win. The one thing of value he has is his nomination and he won't give it up.

Thanks, Claire!

LOL at responding to a post assuming unreasonable wishful thinking by Akin by calling it unreasonable wishful thinking by McCaskill.

McCaskill oh-so-cynically comes out in his defense

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/todd-akin-defended-democratic-rival-claire-mccaskill/story?id=17048232#.UDO9_N2PXSg

McCaskill is in a funny position. She spent money to manipulate the GOP race to get Akin in, all in hopes that he would do something stupid. But it worked so well that he may stupid himself right out of the race. So now she has to strangely defend his right to be in the race.

I dont envy MO voters with their choice between these two

Akin is allegedly getting back on the Huckabee radio show again.


Blunt, Ashcroft, Bond, Danforth, Talent issue joint statement calling on @ToddAkin to get out of the race. #MOSen

He just said on the Huckabee show he's staying in.

Could they run an independent Republican- not Brunner or Steelman since MO has sore loser laws- as an Indie and throw everything behind that person? Sort of like CO '10.

There must be some time limit to get on the ballot. Seems a bit late. What are the rules?

The party (and crossroads) could always pick someone for a write in campaign (ala 2010 AK Murkowski) but it would have to be someone who already had statewide name recogntion and good ratings. Not sure who that would be.

I give him even odds of being the next senator from Missouri.

The only one who is legally able and personally willing to do it is Auditor Tom Schweich. But he isn't all that well-known even for a statewide official. Another choice who has 100% name ID and $$$ is Matt Blunt but he's never been interested in anything since leaving office.

In the interim the GOP needs to get some big-name evangelicals to join the chorus.

Of course MO isn't AK. It may have a big lean to R but not AK level. Claire would probably easily win in a three way race with two Republicans. Akin should be able to hold on to most evangelicals, and that would be that.

Instead of a new candidate, I bet a new SuperPac will emerge in support of Akin that suddenly has a ton of undisclosed money. That way the establishment can pretend they arent backing Akin.

Your point is that Akin should stay in no matter what since he supposedly has nothing to lose. This is exactly the type of spin Claire would personally use because she knows she's competitive (at the very least) against Akin. Unless you honestly think she wants him to withdraw...

Hadn't thought of that. A pretty good idea as long as the mainstream media doesn't start reporting heavily on it.

I still think Akin is the favorite to win, although his comments are utterly despicable, but I expect they will be mostly forgotten a week from now, except in McCaskill's campaign. Fact is- despite a -34 net approval, he's still leading among independents in a GOP-leaning state against an opponent who voters are cool towards, leaning towards dislike. I expect this controversy to tighten the race, but in the end, I think he'll pull it out.

That is just my gut feeling though, and I'd love to be disproved in November.

It's not "spin," it's my assessment of Akin's position. People in his position don't usually give up their one remaining asset. I don't see how saying Claire would say the same thing disproves the point, which is that Akin's interests have diverged greatly from those of the Republicans, and the Republicans made that happen.

What do you think his reason for stepping down would be, given that he's going into total obscurity if he does?

Scott Conroy said on Twitter that sources are telling him Akin may drop before 9/25. Has to be before the DNC ends.

If not then the seat should be deliberately jettisoned like with Ted Stevens 4 years ago.

It doesn't disprove the point. I'm just saying it reads like something she would say and seems like a bit of wishful thinking to barely entertain why he'd drop out.

So he drops out and fades into obscurity. He would probably prefer that over the hell he will be given over the next few months.

This situation is reminiscent of Torricelli's withdrawal from the NJ Senate race which led to Lautenberg's return in 2002.  Recall that the deadline to replace a candidate in NJ had passed, but the State Supreme Court ruled that the Democrats were entitled to a candidate.  It was pretty clear to most that Torricelli withdrew because his poll numbers dropped with scandal charges in the air.

It is also a reminder of Tom Delay's attempt to get off the ballot in Texas in 2006 and have a replacement named.  He did get off the ballot, but Texas' strict laws would not allow a replacement to be named and a write in campaign for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs fell short by a 52% to 42% margin.

Stevens barely lost. If he hadn't been jettisoned, maybe he would have won. I don't think the GOP would risk that again, whatever their current threats.

What makes you think that he possess the ability to run such a campaign? When he was third in the polls and way back from Steelman, his entire campaign was essentially based around him getting headlines for making one stupid statement after another to bring attention to himself. Worse still, he didn't even really win the primary by any particular action that he took, but instead won it as a result of the actions taken by Steelman, Brunner and McCaskil.

Missouri isn't as Republican as Alaska, and doesn't have their current governor on the Republican ticket though.

Akin has not been indicted on seven counts of failing to report gifts, and hasn't trailed in most polls. He's still very much in the game, although not a shoo-in for victory.

Sharron Angle remained competitive too. For the next little while 'tis a waiting game, unfortunately.

Palin also called on Akin to quit and also urged Steelman to go third party. So instead of the headline being "Palin calls on Akin to quit" it's "Palin calls on Akin to quit, Ignorant of MO Election Law." Which shouldn't surprise anyone.

The Republicans have a better chance with Akin than a 3-way race.

This is why we should go back to the days of smoke-filled rooms to decide party nominees.  Using primaries as a method for selecting nominees is dumb.....though it does make things more interesting from a political spectator's point of view.

Exactly. The GOP isn't going to throw away a chance at this seat with a fight with Akin or a third party candidate. Expect the NRSC and Crossroads GPS to stop talking about Akin or acknowledging him, and then within a few weeks a new group funded by Koch, Adelson, or Friess called Prosperity Eagles for Freedom USA will start running ads against Liberal Claire McCaskill who wants to give your Medicare money to welfare deadbeats.

That would be pretty funny for someone watching the ad, but I agree with the substance of this argument. They're not going to give up on Akin if he stays in the race. Right now, I just see seven realistic shots at GOP pickups. Out of these, only Nebraska is a sure thing. Wisconsin is pretty likely. I'd say Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana are about 50-50 or slightly higher, with Democrats having better candidates but the dynamics of the state favoring the Republican. George Allen is a very slight underdog in Virginia and Connie Mack can win in Florida, though it'll be fairly tough.

I don't buy Ohio, Hawaii, Michigan, and Michigan being real opportunities for a gain at this point in time. I'm also pretty doubtful Wilson can win in New Mexico without a wave. Heinrich is a well-liked and strong candidate in a Democratic-leaning state, and he's going to have to make a serious slip-up for her to have a chance, although the margin won't be double digits either way.

Akin is opening the door to a possible exit from the race.

http://www.karnnewsradio.com/rssItem.asp?feedid=112&itemid=29896373

Maybe I overestimate Akin's ability to learn from mistakes but I guess the outrage his latest statement caused will make him a lot more careful in the future. The stupid things he said in the primary didn't have any negative impact on his campaign but the rape remarks certainly had - maybe this was the wake up call Akin needed. "A flawless campaign" in his case probably means that all he has to do is stick very closely to a few keywords and avoid situations where he could run into trouble so maybe he shouldn't give too many interviews anymore. After all, due to McCaskill's unpopularity in Missouri, Akin just has to be perceived as a more or less acceptable alternative, he doesn't need to be loved by everyone.

Rape isn't something taken lightly over here. When your party is already involved in a War on Women, and you start trying to tell these women that they were not legitimately raped, you wouldn't be able to overcome that, especially against a female opponent. We've seen the GOP lose races because of this as recently as 2010 in Colorado.

Apparently there's a loophole in MO law which would allow Akin to swap races with Ann Wagner, who's the nominee in his CD.

I'm not seeing that part of it?

It's not a loophole. Ann Wagner would exit her race in the same manner, and then each would get nominated by the party.

The only reason to give it to Wagner is to free up MO-02 for Akin to save his career.

Or at the very least successfully push people over the theshold of convincing them that such is really the case when it is not. Either way, the result is the same and the idiot in question loses.

I wasn't expecting him to mess up so quickly. At this point I lean towards him dropping out next month.

Not that it will be because his positions are really out of the ordinary within the Republican party: http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/08/22/724331/chart-akins-views-on-womens-health-are-in-line-with-gop-party/

Definitely sounds like he's going to get out. Oh well.

Press conference at 2:15 pacific.

Wouldn't that put MO-02 in play, if Akin is parachuted back in?  Granted, if that is the price it would be worth it, but still.

No its gerrymandered, he wouldn't lose there over this.

The more Pub burbs of St. Louis are that far "out there?"

I'd say so.  You're the redistricting fan - what does the new district 2 look like by the numbers?  I just looked at the map, and I surmise he'd have no trouble.. but I could be wrong.

So he is getting out? Source? Because on Intrade there is still an opportunity if this is nearly certain.

Update:

"Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) will hold a press conference somewhere in St. Louis County at 5:15 Eastern Standard time.

He will announce he's staying in the Missouri Senate race against Sen. Claire McCaskill (R-Mo.), multiple news outlets are reporting.

Akin updated his Facebook cover photo earlier on Friday to a photo that reads "We proved the party bosses wrong. Now, help us defeat Claire McCaskill" — a clear indication that, even when it was uploaded around 3 p.m. Washington time, Akin had plans to continue his fight."

Thank you, based God.

Not really. This is a R+7 or so district full of straight ticket southern Republicans. Why do you think Carnahan and Clay passed it up?

And even if it does, House seats are expendable.

krazen, keeping the spin to a minimum, what's your outlook on Ann Wagner? Do you know much about her?

Eh, roughly 50 years old, reasonably physically attractive. Former state party chair and ran for RNC chair, so she's pretty much the opposite of Akin in that regard. Former ambassador to Luxembourg.

Pro-life and pretty conservative down the line, but not a foot in mouth type, and there's enough PAC money on the sidelines. Which is probably enough to win this Senate seat in this state in this year.

If I recall she was considering the Senate seat until Akin vacated MO-02.