Talk Elections

Based on RNC speeches, who is positioning to run for President in 2016 (if Romney loses the general)?

I'm saying Christie, Rice and Ryan.

Christie and Ryan for sure.

I'm unsure about Rice at this point.

While it's interesting to see what kind of reaction they inspire, we didn't learn anything new about familiar characters like Christie, Ryan, Thune, or Rice.

The most revealing moments of the convention are the performances by politicians who haven't been on the national stage for long. Ted Cruz's speech stood out to me - unlike other neophytes (e.g. Ayotte), he was comfortable and charismatic while onstage. If Romney loses, I expect that we'll hear a lot of speculation about him running in 2016.

Rice should have been the VP nominee in 2004 or 2008.  I don't think she wants to run for office.

Christie might run, if he has been re-elected.

Christie, definitely. Maybe Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Bob McDonnell, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Paul Ryan, Marsha Blackburn, Marco Rubio....

these are all guesses, of course.

Christie obviously wants to run.  He's been dropping hints non-stop for ages, well before his RNC speech.

A Rice campaign wouldn't be successful. Let's get that clear. She's many things. An intellectual. An academic. A bureaucrat. But she's not a retail politician. She looks great now, but she's not being treated like a politician. She's being treated like an intellectual, which is what she is.

Of course, she's a viable VP, especially for someone most people think is very conservative *cough* Ryan *cough. But she wouldn't run a presidential campaign. And hell, I don't even know if Ryan would run a presidential campaign.

In order of the likelihood that they win the nomination:

1. Ryan
2. Christie
3. Martinez
4. Rubio
5. Paul

Why Martinez above Rubio? I agree she'd be a better candidate but she's not a political celebrity like Rubio is with the right.

She would be a very good running mate for Christie or Ryan.

Ryan, Christie, Paul, Martinez, and Rubio.

His parents were both American citizens at the time.

You mean... his kids are anchor babies?

I highly doubt Martinez runs as early as 2016.  She's still looking after her sister and father, and she'll only be starting her second term as governor before she has to start running.


Huckabee?  How in the world would he survive the combination of the Akin/Boozman scandal(s), and the Clemmons clemency?

Here's my best guess on the likelihood of the most likely candidates running for the 2016 GOP nomination, should Obama win this year (in order from most likely to least likely):

1) Christie
2) Santorum
3) Jindal
4) Morry Taylor
5) Ryan
6) Rubio
7) Rand Paul
8 ) McDonnell
9) Perry
10) Pence
11) Walker
12) Jeb Bush
13) Thune
14) Cruz
15) Palin

One parent is actually enough. Mother or a father (who acknowledges paternity).

Which kind of makes birtherism stupid even if it were true.

How about Mary Fallin?

Oh her? The woman from a deep red state who is getting absolutely no buzz whatsoever? Not a chance in hell.

If a woman is on the ticket in 2016 or 2020, it will be Rice or Martinez or someone elected in 2014/2016.

Christie, Ryan, Paul... dunno who else. Apart from Paul, no member of the Class of 2010. At least not topping the ticket.

I think that Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Bob McDonnel, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan (assuming Romney loses in 2012) are all going to run for the Republican nomination in 2016. There is a possibility that Susana Martinez and Condoleezza Rice may run as well. I hope that Rick Santorum does not get the nomination beacuse I think his ideas and positions are dangerous and destructive to our country.

You're gonna LOVE Phil.

I will take this troubled child under my wing and lead him on the right path.

Christie and Ryan for sure.

Bush needs to be Sec of Education in a Romney administration to ever run, otherwise his time will be too long ago.

Rice wants it, but I'm not sure if she'd be able to run without another cabinet post.

Martinez opened the door if she wants it. Rubio has always known he can run and his speech about his background probably means a yes. Santorum of course will highly consider running. McDonnell is basically Romney 2.0 speaking wise, he'll have a strong resume so why not considering term limits? I didn't see Jindal's speech. Decent chance Walker runs. Paul probably will to continue to the Paul momentum.

Rand will likely follow most of his dads footsteps and be the libertarian standardbearer in the party so I see him with an 85 percent chance of running.

Rubio... He's running unless the Obama birthers focus hard on him. With both Rubio and Rand, I would run for governor first. Both are relatively young and healthy so a term or two runnin a state would be good for them.

Martinez.... Depending on how New Mexico is doing I could see this. 65% chance of running.

Santorum.... He wants it. Small problem... Hasnt he been out of office for almost a decade already

I hope Martinez does run. I don't think she'd win it in 2016, but I think she'd garner enough support and attention to be a serious contender for 2020 or 2024. I really think this woman has a good shot at being sworn in as the first female president.

I actually agree with Rick Santorum on most economic issues and admire him for standing up to the principles he believes in 100%, but I think he is a tad bit too hardline on foreign poicy in my opinion and his positions on social policies are too extreme for my tastes.

In total agreement with you, except I could see a surprise primary win from her in 2016 (2020/24 is more likely however). I've always liked her story, but seeing her speech in full makes me more confident than ever in saying Martinez has a very bright political future.

2016 will see Christie for sure, but I expect that campaign to go bust pretty quick. Too much fodder for the dems, and too moderate in my opinion to rally more behind him. Rubio may also be a serious contender in 2016, but depending on the dem selection could prove to be a poor choice given his vulnerabilities.

If she doesn't make it in '16, she ought to try to become a senator after her governorship so she's still in the spotlight. Really, she has until the 2028 election to remain in contention if she plays her cards right (she'd be 69).

Santorum is too much of a nut job to be a viable candidate.  He may be naive enough or self centred enough to believe he could win the nomination, but the truth of the matter is that the Republicans are not going to nominate him for anything.  I think we all know that.

I don't see this in 2016... but maybe an election or two after that one, based on the RNC, I see Mia Love running as a candidate who would likely gather a good deal of support and who would win the primaries were she to run at that time.

I ing hate Martinez.