Talk Elections

Paul and Santorum: The Collapse of Willard Mitt Romney.


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Iowa Caucus Results:
Ron Paul 24.56%
Rick Santorum 24.53%
Mitt Romney 21.43%
Newt Gingrich 13.3%
Rick Perry 10.33%
Michelle Bachmann 4.97%

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Bachmann drops out, endorses Rick Santorum

“Things aren’t looking good for Mitt Romney, a nomination that was looking to be his, is now being bombarded by a resounding loss in Iowa, and a violent drop in his poll numbers in New Hampshire” – Chris Matthews

“It seems that the Republican establishment is in a panic mode of Ron Paul and Rick Santorums momentum, seeing him now within the margin of error of Mitt Romney in NH and Rick Santorum with Mitt Romney nationally, and now even Huntsman is moving up from Romney falling.” – Rachel Maddow

National Poll:
Mitt Romney: 25%
Rick Santorum: 24%
Ron Paul: 20%
Newt Gingrich: 10%
Jon Huntsman 10%
Rick Perry: 1%


NH Poll:
Mitt Romney - 26%
Ron Paul - 25%
Jon Huntsman - 24%
Newt Gingrich - 12%
Rick Santorum – 6%

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 “None of the other candidates on this stage are proposing any real cuts to the budget, I am” – Ron Paul

“Look, I don’t want to cut a trillion out of the budget right away, I want this to work reasonably. We can’t resort to extremism in economic times like this. We need to push our economy in the right direction before we do anything drastic.” – Mitt Romney

“When he was a governor, Mitt Romney was on the wrong side of the issues: he supported gay marriage and was pro-choice. As soon as he left office to run in 2008, he abandoned these issues to become a conservative. Now, can we really trust someone who changes this quickly. I’ve been a social conservative no matter what, cause I am a real conservative.” – Rick Santorum

“What a lot of these candidates are proposing is reckless extremism, while what Mitt Romney proposes is whatever people want to hear. I am here to propose real solutions, solutions that might not be popular to some, but solutions that will put America back on the right track” – Jon Huntsman

National Poll:
Rick Santorum: 30%
Mitt Romney: 27%
Ron Paul: 19%
Jon Huntsman: 16%
Newt Gingrich: 8%
Rick Perry: 0%


NH Poll:
Jon Huntsman: 27%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Ron Paul 24%
Rick Santorum: 13%
Newt Gingrich: 7%
Rick Perry: 0%

South Carolina poll:
Rick Santorum: 24%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Newt Gingrich: 19%
Ron Paul: 14%
Jon Huntsman: 10%
Rick Perry: 3%

“Mitt Romney got savaged on that stage from all sides, economic Conservative, social conservatives, and even moderates, while Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum did well on that stage. Pauls numbers stayed consistent, with more of his base getting rallied up due to his victory in Iowa, but more GOP fear coming through and balancing out.” – Chris Matthews

Awesome stuff man. Hope to see more.

This was how things were supposed to go ;)

Interesting, looking forward to this one.

1% of the Precincts reporting
Ron Paul: 25.9%
Mitt Romney: 25.6%
Jon Huntsman: 25.4%
Rick Santorum: 18.4%
Newt Gingrich: 5.6%
Rick Perry: 0.1%

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“It’s too close to call now, but it looks like there is a three way tie for first place right now, with a surprisingly strong fourth finish from Rick Santorum. Things don’t look good for Mitt Romney, even if it’s a narrow win, considering just before he was leading by as much as 30 points before the Iowa caucuses before his third place showing there.” – John King

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 “Now hold on John, it looks as if, with more results in, we have a clearer picture of the race now. Even though the winner still isn’t clear, it looks like Rep. Ron Paul will be getting third place now, narrowly. It’s all down to the surging Jon Huntsman and establishment favorite Mitt Romney” – Wolf Blitzer

32% of the Precincts reporting:
Mitt Romney: 26.3%
Jon Huntsman: 26.2%
Ron Paul: 24.5%
Rick Santorum: 18.5%
Newt Gingrich: 4.0%
Rick Perry: 0.1%

“Now our reporters at Romney headquarters say there is a dead calmness in the room right now. There aren’t many people there, a sure sign of weakness, but the people who are there are now patiently awaiting the results. Hoping for a glimmer of hope from this weakening campaign” – John King

“Well the Romney camp certainly has something to be afraid of here, but no longer is it Ron Paul” – Wolf Blitzer

That morning...

“It looks like the election is being called… for Governor Romney!” – Wolf Blitzer


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100% of the Precincts reporting:
Mitt Romney: 26.0%
Jon Huntsman: 25.9%
Ron Paul: 24.8%
Rick Santorum: 18.6%
Newt Gingrich: 5.0%
Rick Perry: 0.1%

Rick Perry Drops Out, doesn’t make an endorsement, but makes statements favorable to Santorum and Gingrich.
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"Even though Romney, from the brink of death, pulls a victory out, he still has plenty of competition for the position that he previously claimed throughout the primary race." - Chris Matthews

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Delegate Count:
Mitt Romney: 11
Ron Paul: 10
Rick Santorum: 8
Jon Huntsman: 3
Newt Gingrich:0

Interesting. I'd love to see Gingrich clinch the nomination .

National Polls:
Mitt Romney: 20%
Rick Santorum: 20%
Ron Paul: 19%
Jon Huntsman: 16%
Newt Gingrich: 12%

South Carolina Poll:
Rick Santorum: 26%
Newt Gingrich: 23%
Mitt Romney: 20%
Ron Paul: 12%
Jon Huntsman: 7%

Florida Poll:
Mitt Romney: 32%
Newt Gingrich: 23%
Jon Huntsman: 22%
Rick Santorum: 8%
Ron Paul: 5%

Nevada Poll:
Ron Paul: 30%
Mitt Romney: 29%
Jon Huntsman: 28%
Newt Gingrich: 5%
Rick Santorum: 4%

“Due to Gingrich’s performance in the South Carolina debate and his newfound monetary strength,  he’s being pushed into the top tier of the South Carolina primary, beating a 3rd place Romney by a full six point margin. However, Santorum’s strength with social conservatives in South Carolina is causing Newt to but head to head with the former senator” – Wolf Blitzer

“Thanks to Mitt Romney’s superior strategy and thinking ahead, Romney still maintains a strong lead in Florida, but for how long? What seemed like an insurmountable lead has now shrunk to single digits, with Huntsman and Gingrich surging. Santorum, rather, is looking towards South Carolina for his first win, while Paul is looking for his second win in Nevada, where he has considerable Mormon competition in Huntsman and Romney, looking like a rematch of New Hampshire.” – Chris Matthews

Skipping to the results (cause I am feeling a tad lazy)


South Carolina Results:
Rick Santorum: 31.26%
Newt Gingrich: 30.00%
Mitt Romney: 18.54%
Ron Paul: 12.20%
Jon Huntsman: 8.00%


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“I will continue to fight for the conservative values that I believe in, and the results show that America is fighting with me!” – Rick Santorum

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“Just a couple of weeks ago, they counted us out. They said we couldn’t do it. Well let me tell you America… big ideas CAN still happen!” – Newt Gingrich

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“I will continue my campaign as we look on to Florida, where I think we will make a big impact.” – Mitt Romney

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Delegates:
Rick Santorum: 27
Mitt Romney: 11
Ron Paul: 10
Newt Gingrich: 4
Jon Huntsman: 3

Its make or break for Romney in Florida, but if he is forced out, I have a hard time seeing Huntsman filling in the void as the main "establishment" candidate. God knows Paul won't be that guy, so I guess Santorum will get that slot.

Thats the kink in my narrative that I am quietly working out, whether or not Romney wins in Florida, but you're right that it gets difficult to see who takes that establishment spot once Romney is forced out.

Interesting.

I've been considering recently who Santorum would have chosen as a running mate. My guess was Rand Paul, as a way to broaden his base.

So I'll definitely be interested in this version of the veepstakes.

Rand or Huntsman would of been great picks. It's funny, I too was thinking the same thing last week.

National Polls:
Rick Santorum: 28%
Mitt Romney: 19%
Ron Paul: 19%
Newt Gingrich: 17%
Jon Huntsman: 17%

Florida Polls:
Newt Gingrich: 27%
Mitt Romney: 26%
Jon Huntsman: 22%
Rick Santorum: 13%
Ron Paul: 8%

Nevada Polls:
Ron Paul: 33%
Jon Huntsman: 27%
Mitt Romney: 24%
Rick Santorum: 3%
Newt Gingrich: 3%

Colorado Polls:
Jon Huntsman: 42%
Ron Paul: 28%
Mitt Romney: 15%
Rick Santorum: 7%
Newt Gingrich: 2%

Minnesota Polls:
Ron Paul: 41%
Rick Santorum: 24%
Jon Huntsman: 20%
Mitt Romney: 7%
Newt Gingrich: 2%

Missouri Polls:
Rick Santorum: 40%
Mitt Romney: 25 %
Newt Gingrich: 20%
Jon Huntsman: 7%
Ron Paul: 3%

“Florida Polls are showing that, inspite of Gingrich’s narrow loss in South Carolina, his campaign in the state seems to be working, putting him oh so slightly ahead of Romney in the polls there. Santorum’s win in South Carolina certifies him at this time to be the frontrunner. Don’t count Romney quite out yet, he’s within margin of error of Florida, the make or break state for his campaign. He's not Giuliani yet! However, the three states after Nevada, where Romney is within margin of error of second (would be the easy winner if it weren’t for the Mormon split with Huntsman), things aren’t looking favorable for him: Minnesota is clearly Ron Paul territory, even with Bachmann's Santorum endorsement, Huntsman is aiming at his first win in the state of Colorado, and Santorum is aiming for a HUGE win in Missouri, where he leads only second place finish in those states by a whole fifteen percentage points. It’s all down to Florida though for his campaign.” – Chris Matthews

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“I think the American people want to know what you did at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac!” – Mitt Romney

“I think it is unconscable for someone to try to pin that on me, I was merely a historian” – Newt Gingrich”

“They don’t hire historians for over 2 million dollars Newt!” – Mitt Romney

“YES THEY DO!” – Newt’s thoughts

“As the Florida debates close, Romney gets at least a couple points boost, pushing him back in the lead in Florida, the ever important decision maker for Romney, It seems as if the make-or-break state for Romney is going to be a make. Gingrich is falling down and Huntsman can’t seem to pick up his numbers, even though he is pushing a hard third, maybe even up to second by election day!” – Wolf Blitzer

FLORIDA ELECTION DAY
12% of Precincts Reporting
Mitt Romney: 27%
Newt Gingrich: 25%
Jon Huntsman: 25%
Rick Santorum: 13%
Ron Paul: 10%

“While its too close to call yet, Romney’s lead has been growing since the beginning of the night, so it looks as if it’s a Romney win right now, but its hard to say.” – John King

“What does this say about Santorum and Paul, who are clearly fourth and fifth respectively?” – Wolf Blitzer

“Well, all that means is that their focus is, rightly so, on future primaries. Paul is focused heavily on smaller states, while Santorum is looking at his socially conservative base, which extends to Missouri, the south, and even Michigan. Santorum might even hang on to his national lead if Romney squeaks out, which is what is seeming to happen.” – John King

“What about Gingrich, if he loses tonight, where does he go?” – Wolf Blitzer

“It’s hard to say, Gingrich has been staking his campaign on wins in South Carolina and Florida. His campaign would’ve continued with a win in one, but as it looks like now it’s a win in none, so his chances are thin and I think he is done even with a strong second because he has no real base of support.” – John King

“And Huntsman?” – Wolf Blitzer

“Unlike Gingrich, Huntsman has been running a great campaign on more moderate/conservative republicans that are frustrated with Romney’s constant flip-flopping and Santorum’s socially-focused conservatism, but are unwilling to go into the Paulite zone. A strong second in Florida would help him solidize himself as a serious candidate, and should he make a strong performance in Nevada, and finally, a win in Colorado, then he should be on the map.” – John King

“We’ll get back to that in a moment, but CNN would like to call the Florida election for Mitt Romney.” – Wolf Blitzer


Florida Primary Results:
Mitt Romney: 28.46%
Jon Huntsman:  27.12%
Newt Gingrich: 22.45%
Rick Santorum: 12.97%
Ron Paul: 9.00%

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“I’m glad America is on board with our message of personal responsibility and economic prosperity!” – Mitt Romney

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“I was surpised by how close I came once again to a huge victory! All I have to say is Nevada and Colorado… I’m coming for ya!” – Jon Huntsman

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“Tonight, I am suspending my campaign. Even though we came back from the brink, what ended up happening was a fallbackward, and no longer see an opportunity for grandiose ideas. I will not be making an endorsement until all is final in the unrest of these primaries” – Newt Gingrich

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Mitt Romney: 61
Rick Santorum: 27
Ron Paul: 10
Jon Huntsman: 3
Newt Gingrich: 4

I think Florida was supposed to allocate delegates proportionally, as no state could use a winner take all system til after April 1st. I don't know why the RNC never used its own rules. But this is great. I'm working on something similar.

Great update :) Can I suggest using the color code "gold" instead of yellow? It makes it easier to read, while not going all the way for organge.

Even with a Florida win, where else can Romney really go in the near future? He might be able to hold out until Super Tuesday, but that still is a good distance into the future.

Nevada, and then Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado

National Poll:
Rick Santorum: 34%
Ron Paul: 24%
Mitt Romney: 22%
Jon Huntsman: 20%

Nevada Poll:
Ron Paul: 35%
Jon Huntsman: 30%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Rick Santorum: 5%

Colorado poll:
Jon Huntsman: 45%
Ron Paul: 25%
Rick Santorum:16%
Mitt Romney: 14%

Missouri poll:
Rick Santorum: 50%
Mitt Romney: 30%
Jon Huntsman: 10%
Ron Paul: 5%

Minnesota:
Ron Paul: 45%
Rick Santorum: 30%
Jon Huntsman: 14%
Mitt Romney: 7%

Maine:
Ron Paul: 42%
Jon Huntsman: 30%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Rick Santorum: 5%

Much Later:

Michigan:
Rick Santorum: 35%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Jon Huntsman: 22%
Ron Paul: 15%

Arizona:
Mitt Romney: 40%
Jon Huntsman: 34%
Rick Santorum: 20%
Ron Paul: 15%


"The map ahead so far looks stagnant: some for sure wins for candidates. Ron Paul has a death grip on Minnesota, Jon Huntsman on Colorado, and Santorum on Missouri. It looks like an uneventful night coming up. But tonight is the night before the Nevada primary, where Ron Paul has been seriously throwing his resources against Huntsman and Romney. Romney, just winning the Florida primary by a thread, looks for a way, any way, to continue his momentum. Unforunately, it seems like Paul and Huntsmans constant campaigning (and Huntsman splitting of the mormon vote) has shut down Romney's possibility in the state, pushing him to third place. It looks like Romney will have to wait til Michigan, where Santorum has worked himself a huge lead in a state where Romney was born in. Luckily, Romney still holds a sizable lead in Arizona, a must win state." - Chris Matthews


Nevada Primary Results:
Ron Paul: 40.82%
Jon Huntsman: 28.53%
Mitt Romney: 19.56%
Rick Santorum: 11.09%

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"My supporters are wonderful, and I am glad they are continuing their support of the freedom revolution currently happening within the Republican party!" - Ron Paul

"Ron Paul wins the first sizable victory of the campaign! It looks like the Paul campaign, inspite of all efforts to invalidate its viability, remains so. Huntsman, slightly downgrading his poll numbers, still gives a strong showing that won't destroy his decidedly very strong showing in Colorado, and Santorum even pushes 11% in a state when he was previously polling below 3%. Among all this progress, its Romney, the leader of the pack in Florida, who goes down." - Chris Matthews

Meanwhile, at Fox News...

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"The utter incompetency of the Romney campaign to deal with these people challenging his campaign is absurd. He's dealing with the craziest senator in the country, a moderate-to-liberal Governor of Utah, and the craziest congresman in the country... this is outrageous" - Bill O'Reilly

"If the Romney campaign doesn't shape up, it looks like the American people will shut them down" - Sean Hannity

"A campaign of this level of incompetency is something I can't even remeber. Even McCain managed to get rid of his competitors, although now I question him because of them is Romney. It's time for him to step down and let a real conservative take the reigns" - Rush Limbaugh.

Back in the World

"It looks like Fox News's fury is all on Mitt Romney, surprising since he's been trying to appeal to them, while fellow moderate Huntsman has been taking the high road. Either way, this can't be good for his campaign, going into three states where it doesn't look favorable."

Results from Triple State Fantasm:

Minnesota:
Ron Paul: 47.53%
Rick Santorum: 27.43%
Jon Huntsman: 16.23%
Mitt Romney: 8.81%

"This is not a good showing for a state that Romney won significantly in 2008, but there are reasons. One, Ron Paul showed strong in 08, and it seems Ron Paul's movement has shown much more traction this year. Another reason is that Santorum has high traction with social conservatives, and this plays to his strength in Minnesota, where the Republicans are further to the right than most in liberal states such as Minnesota. Finally, Huntsman is gaining traction with moderates, seeing as Romney isn't picking up really anywhere." - Wolf Blitzer

Colorado:
Jon Huntsman: 43.54%
Ron Paul: 34.95%
Rick Santorum: 15.21%
Mitt Romney: 6.30%

"Huntsman's long anticipated win finally came with Colorado, but it wasn't as big as expected, mostly suffered by Romney, but also by Santorum, whose social conservative base did not come to show as big this year. Ron Paul, however, thanks to momentum from a more serious win in Nevada, pushed his margin closer, and moving towards the single digits. Still, Huntsman pulls off his first big win." - John King

Missouri:
Rick Santorum: 59.55%
Mitt Romney: 17.36%
Jon Huntsman: 15.45%
Ron Paul: 7.64%

"... and Santorum pulls off a 40 point victory over Romney and Huntsman in Missouri, a state that was obviously his for the win. Not a single piece of good news tonight for Romney, whose momentum after Florida was immediately killed." - Wolf Blitzer

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Delegates:
Rick Santorum:90
Mitt Romney: 68
Ron Paul: 64
Jon Huntsman: 27

Michigan, Arizona... and the build-up to the Most Super Tuesday of 2012!

Michigan Polls:
Rick Santorum: 37%
Mitt Romney: 26%
Jon Huntsman: 20%
Ron Paul: 17%

Arizona Polls:
Mitt Romney: 38%
Jon Huntsman: 33%
Rick Santorum: 24%
Ron Paul: 5%

Maine Polls:
Ron Paul: 44%
Jon Huntsman: 30%
Mitt Romney: 20%
Rick Santorum: 3%

Wyoming:
Mitt Romney: 43%
Jon Huntsman: 42%
Ron Paul: 10%
Rick Santorum: 5%

Washington:
Ron Paul: 38%
Jon Huntsman: 37%
Mitt Romney: 20%
Rick Santorum: 5%


"After the three state strike out for Mitt Romney, polls remain stagnant in these upcoming three states, even as Michigan stands as Romney's home state. Plus his 'trees are the right height' gaffe seems to be making an impact on his likability, where Santorum's family man image and populist conservative rhetoric is speaking to his consitutiency there. Maine seems increasingly out of reach for anyone not named Ron Paul, even with Huntsman's attempt at an insurgent campaign out there. In good news for Romney, Arizona seems to be safe keeping, even with, again, an insurgent campaign by Jon Huntsmen." - Chris Matthews

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"Rick, you're going to try to convince people you're a conservative, but you're merely a big spending liberal who wants to invade our personal lives!" - Ron Paul

"You're right, Paul, I don't want to just let people do as they please! Thats not what our founding fathers invisioned!" - Rick Santorum

"I believe the statements that Santorum are making are just showing the kind of radical nature that Americans don't want in their politics! Should I be elected, we will focus on solutions, not soap boxes for extreism." - Jon Huntsman

"I agree with Huntsman" - Mitt Romney

"What was supposed to a momentum of vigor and force for the Romney campaign turned into one for Jon Huntsman, whose campaign has been quietly moving forward after his big win yet expected win in Colorado, picking up a large crowd of moderates unconvinced by Romney's constant change in ideology. It seems as if that will have an impact in Michigan, where Santorums numbers are shrinking due to his weak performance in the debate where he attempted to fight off blacklash from all three candidates. It looks like the polls, while less than expected, will stand in the elections tonight." - Chris Matthews

Michigan Primary:
Rick Santorum: 34.53%
Mitt Romney: 27.84%
Jon Huntsman: 25.52%
Ron Paul: 12.11%

Arizona Primary:
Mitt Romney: 34.21%
Jon Huntsman: 33.82%
Rick Santorum: 19.35%
Ron Paul: 12.62%

"Thank you people of Arizona for continuing my presidential campaign, and we will march onto Super Tuesday!" - Mitt Romney

"I am happy for our victory in Michigan, so hopefully we will push for more manfuacturing jobs as we lead the way to Super Tuesday!" - Rick Santorum

"Wow folks. Once again, the pundits couldn't catch us, as we managed to, once again, put the picked favorites into a tight squeeze. Even though we didn't quite make it, it shows that we are still a viable and electable choice for 2012 and I will be continuing my campaign onto Super Tuesday!" - Jon Huntsman

"The freedom movement will continue onto Maine, Washington, and to the states of Super Tuesday!" - Ron Paul

Speaking of Maine...

Maine Caucus:
Ron Paul: 43.21%
Jon Huntsman: 38.53%
Mitt Romney: 14.62%
Rick Santorum: 3.04%

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"Well ya look at that!" - Ron Paul

"On the way, we have two more states before Super Tuesday comes up: Washington and Wyoming. One is very important to the Ron Paul campaign, the other to Romney, and both are important to Jon Huntsman: either one a win for Huntsman, and he gains some momentum for Super Tuesday. The other candidate, Santorum, having gained enough momentum from his victory in Michigan even when he lost the Arizona debates allows him to continue onto Super Tuesday, even without a giant win in either of the states, as the polls show him in dead last in both. " - Rachel Maddow

Washington Results:
Ron Paul: 40.25%
Jon Huntsman: 39.57%
Mitt Romney: 14.53%
Rick SAntorum: 5.65%

Wyoming Results:
Jon Huntsman: 45.34%
Mitt Romney: 42.45%
Ron Paul: 8.21%
Rick Santorum: 4.00%

"The story out of the night is that Huntsman survives. He skids out of the Wyoming caucus by beating Mitt Romney by 3 points. Ron Paul, however, also skids out of the Washington caucus, beating Huntsman by less than a percent. Either way, the momentum is on the side of any candidate for Super Tuesday. Any candidate, that is, except for Mitt Romney, who cannot build on any of his wins it seems like." - Chris Matthews


Delegate Map
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Mitt Romney: 122
Rick Santorum: 103
Ron Paul: 96
Jon Huntsman: 80

Super Tuesday Poll Map
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Romney States:
Massachussets (Easy)
Virginia (Medium, Slight Paul contention)
Ohio (Hard, Strong Santorum conetntion)

Santorum States:
Tennessee (Easy)
Oklahoma (Easy)
Georgia (Easy)

Paul States:
Alaska (Easy)
North Dakota (Easy)
Vermont (Medium, slight Huntsman contention)

Huntsman States:
Idaho (Hard, slight Romney contention and Paul contention)

Hoping for a brokered convention :)

Super Tuesday: One candidates momentum is another candidates downfall!

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"It looks as if the first results are coming in for Super Tuesday, and all of the states are serious contests. First Vermont, suprising, because most considered that an easier Paul state. But the liberal republicans in Vermont decided to, instead, side more with Huntsman, as he is leading by a paper thin margin so far, far exceeding his poll numbers. Still, its nothing to snuff at, its still early in the night" - Chris Matthews

Vermont, 33% of the Precincts in:
Jon Huntsman: 45.34%
Ron Paul: 43.45%
Mitt Romney: 8.12%
Rick Santorum: 3.09%

"Virginia seemed like an easy Romney victory, and it looks like he'll still win, but surprisingly, even with 15% of the Precincts in right now, its too close to call. Paul, despite demographics are running against him, has run a very insurgent campaign considering they are the only two candidates on the ballot." - Rachel Maddow

"Well, at least Romney has Massachusetts in the bag, as he pulls a far and away victory in his home state. Nothing to see there. Romney gets all 38 delegates from the state." - Lawrence O'Donnell

Virginia, 15% of the Precincts reporting:
Mitt Romney: 51.45%
Ron Paul: 48.55%

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Massachusetts Results:
Mitt Romney: 59.45%
Jon Huntsman: 29.21%
Ron Paul: 7.45%
Rick Santorum: 3.89%

"Another close margin today, this time in a very important state for Romney to win: Ohio. And it  doesn't look good so far. He was leading by single digits, but Santorum's conservative populist message has managed to infiltrate, and so far he is picking up a lead early on. Still to close to call, but it looks call-worthy soon enough. This adds to Santorums good news with easy victories in Tennessee and Georgia." - Keith Olbermann


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Tennesse Primary:
Rick Santorum: 51.23%
Mitt Romney: 28.06%
Ron Paul: 10.75%
Jon Huntsman: 9.96%

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Georgia Primary:
Rick Santorum:57.19%
Mitt Romney: 25.91%
Ron Paul: 9.55%
Jon Huntsman: 6.56%

Ohio, 25% of the Precincts reporting:
Rick Santorum: 36.55%
Mitt Romney: 35.25%
Jon Huntsman: 17.85%
Ron Paul: 10.35%

"Now we're going to make some calls: we'd like to call Vermont for Huntsman, and Virginia for Romney." - Chris Matthews

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Vermont Primary:
Jon Huntsman: 46.42%
Ron Paul: 42.83%
Mitt Romney: 8.25%
Rick Santorum: 2.50%

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Virginia Primary:
Mitt Romney: 52.15%
Ron Paul: 47.85%

"Now a couple more states have results: One from North Dakota, and the other from Oklahoma. And the choices are clear for both states: North Dakota for Ron Paul (his first win of the night) and Oklahoma for Santorum." - Rachel Maddow

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North Dakota Primary:
Ron Paul: 50.43%
Rick Santorum: 25.75%
Jon Huntsman: 12.32%
Mitt Romney: 11.50%

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Oklahoma Primary:
Rick Santorum: 53.80%
Mitt Romney: 28.50%
Jon Huntsman: 9.63%
Ron Paul: 7.50%

"And now time for some calls... one that might the mark of an end of a campaign. Ohio goes to Santorum." - Chris Matthews

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Ohio Primary:
Rick Santorum: 38.54%
Mitt Romney: 35.43%
Jon Huntsmen: 17.02%
Ron Paul: 9.01%

"As the polls close in Idaho and Alaska, it appears that Romney is preparing a statement. From what I hear, its about the state of his campaign, which seems to point to his withdraw from the campaign, but we will have to wait until then. The final two states are clear victories: Idaho for Huntsmen, and Alaska for Ron Paul." - Lawrence O'Donnell

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Idaho Primary:
Jon Huntsman: 53.45%
Ron Paul: 33.22%
Mitt Romney: 10.00%
Rick Santorum: 3.33%

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Alaska Primary:
Ron Paul: 40.82%
Mitt Romney: 28.42%
Jon Huntsman: 23.55%
Rick Santorum: 7.21%

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Rick Santorum: 294
Mitt Romney: 258
Ron Paul: 152
Jon Huntsman:137

Mitt Romney quits race

"Thank you everyone for all of your efforts to help my campaign, but I no longer see a course of action I can take that would cause my victory without obstruction of the party. As a result, I am withdrawing from the Presidential race, and endorsing Jon Huntsman, whose strong executive leadership is closest to my solutions based campaign. Hopefully he will bring economic prosperity to this country and defeats Barack Obama!" - Mitt Romney

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"Because of Romney's announcement, most of his numbers in the polls receeds to Huntsman, but even then, Santorum's momentum for Super Tuesday clearly makes him the frontrunner for the moment being." - Wolf Blitzer

National Polling:
Rick Santorum: 40%
Jon Huntsman: 35%
Ron Paul: 25%

I assume Huntsman is now the "establishment" candidate? Weird seeing a liberal (in my opinion, the second most conservative, but the base does not think like me on this one), conservative, and tea party candidate all heading towards the convention. This will be good :)

Also, is Buddy Roemer still running? He might become relevent later on as the choices narrow down.

Skipping to the end of the Primary season:

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Jon Huntsman: 968
Rick Santorum: 703
Ron Paul: 278
Mitt Romney: 258

"Now these would be the numbers, however Mitt Romney is making a special announcement today, and from what we hear, it is very beneficial to Jon Huntsman. That guess is partially because it is WITH frontrunner in terms of delegates Jon Huntsman." - Chris Matthews

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"Today is the day I guess. I am announcing I am releasing my delegates, with a recommended course for the next president of the United States, Jon Huntsman!" - Mitt Romney

"Thank you, Mitt." - Jon Huntsman

"Since, as we expect, most, if not all, of Romney's delegates will go to his endorsed candidate, that pushes Huntsman over the 1144 edge, and, as a result, finally makes him the nominee for President under the rules of the RNC primary rules!"

()


Jon Huntsman: 1208
Rick Santorum: 709
Ron Paul: 290

()

"I guess its time to endorse, and I will fight for our Republican nominee..." - Rick Santorum

()

"I will not be making an endorsement as of yet, but it doesn't look favorable so far" - Ron Paul

PPP (D):
Jon Huntsman: 48%
Barack Obama: 44%

Rasmussen:
Jon Huntsman: 49%
Barack Obama: 42%

CNN:
Jon Huntsman: 46%
Barack Obama: 45%

Fox:
Jon Huntsman: 44%
Barack Obama: 44%

no, but in this timeline American's Elect gets its act together and nominates Buddy Roemer as their candidate.

The libertarians still nominate Gary Johnson as their nominee.

This is great man; keep it up!

This is great. But Huntsman is the one candidate that I and Obama was afraid of. He'll beat him sadly.

I don't know.  I think Obama and his team were pretty afraid of Ron Paul, if only because his low name regognition meant that he had a lot to work with once he got to tap into the GOP cash pits, provided something crazy happens and he actually wins the nomination.

Huntsman VP Selection:

Pat Toomey - Senator of Pennsylvania

()

John Thune - Senator of North Dakota

()

Brian Sandoval - Governor of Nevada

()

Rand Paul - Senator of Kentucky

()

Mitch Daniels - Governor of Indiana

()

"The GOP base will not settle for moderates, and they are currently outraged at the possibility of Brian Sandoval. That being said, besides that one odd selection his part (and somewhat of Rand Paul), it seems to GOP doesn't worry too much about Huntsman even if they aren't happy with him. And why should they? In the latest Rasmussen poll, a Republican leaning poll, Huntsman already leads by 5 points, and almost double digits with independents! It looks like its going to be a tough race for the President!" - Chris Matthews

Rasmussen Poll:
Jon Huntsman: 47%
Barack Obama: 42%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 8%

Toss-Ups Map
()

Map No Toss-Ups
()

"The most surprising thing about the state by state polls is Indiana: Social conservatives in Indiana are so outraged, that Huntsman only leads by a point... with 40% of the vote. Almost 20% of voters in the state are undecided, which leads one to wonder, is their a third party candidates that could stir the pot in the state? Probably not, and if Huntsman picks a more right-wing VP, or even Mitch Daniels, this epidemic will stop." - Chris Matthews

This is great! Go Huntsman!!

^
Huntsman / Paul 12!

I'd prefer a Obama vs Huntsman vs Paul race. Or some important politician running as the Constitution party candidate.

Well I would prefer to see a pragmatic-libertarian GOP, and maybe a President Rand Paul in 2020 or 2024 ;).

Rick Santorum jumps into the Presidential ring under the Constitution Party!


()

"I can not, and will not, allow the conservative voice to be silenced. This election has been narrowed down to a liberal and a moderate. Therefore, I am announcing my run under the Constitution party ballot, with my running mate, Michelle Bachmann, we will take back this country from the depths of socialism!" - Rick Santorum

"Due to Huntsman's strong standing with Independents, he only shifts from first to second with single digits to Obama, but Santorum's jumping into the race places him in a strong third place with 20% of the vote, and nearly all of the south. It looks like this election, due to utter turmoil between the conservatives, has landed into the hands of Barack Obama."

National Poll:
Barack Obama: 39%
Jon Huntsman: 33%
Rick Santorum: 20%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 6%

Toss-Up Map
()

No Toss-Ups Map
()

()

"Both of these candidates represent what got us into this mess: Republican policies on the economy that pushed us into a great recession. We're not done yet, we still have to make adjustments." - Barack Obama

()

"Barack Obama and Rick Santorum both represent extremism in American politics: Santorum's radical social conservatism and Obama's continued plunging government into business. Santorum will try to paint himself as a fighter for economic liberty, but his record proves otherwise. Similarly, Obama will paint himself as a fighter of liberty abroad, but that too, is at fault. I give American the choice of reason, the choice of liberty, and the choice of a new tomorrow." - Jon Huntsman

"As of today, we are getting news that Huntsman's list has narrowed: John Thune and Pat Toomey are no longer in consideration. Since Santorum split the conservative base, those two names, names that would've attempted Huntsman's consolidation of the republican base, are now eliminated because of Santorum's split with the party. Rand Paul looks like a favorable name, as does Mitch Daniels at the momente, and Sandoval's stock has gone up since the Santorum's abandonment of party." - Wolf Blitzer

Great update!!

The Constitution Party might not nominate Santorum. They are strongly in favor of Ron Paul's foreign policy, and despite their strong conservative social views, do not state that they should be forced down the peoples throats. A Santorum run under the Tea Party banner is more likely, IMO.

Couldn't Santorum have just not endorsed Huntsman and let the party activists nominate a "conservative"?

Huntsman really was the most conservative candidate, for whatever its worth ;)

I feel like, while this is true, Santorum would cause an influx of folks to the party, and cause the same thing that happened to Pat Buchanan's nomination of the Reform Party. It would probably destroy the Constitution Party.


Santorum originally cared about the party by endorsing Huntsman, but then his whole thinking went array when two things happened: 1. a third party showing for him proved he had a substantial audience different to that of Huntsman and Obama and 2. The possibility of two moderates on the ticket (The pure mention of Sandoval and Daniels).

That makes a ton of sense. Thanks for clearing this up :).

Santorum takes a lot of heat, Obama fumbles on what he'd do in a second term, and Huntsman's VP polling choices

()

"Look, Santorum's a nice guy and a good family man, but his views are just out of the mainstream. I endorsed Jon Huntsman for a reason: He can get the country back on the right track. Santorum's entire focus on social and cultural issues gives root to the fact that, he has no real economic plan for this country."

Meanwhile, at Fox News

()

"Santorum's brute actions in attempt to put his name out there show he is entirely in the business of self-promotion. From his record of big spending in Congress, to his ties to lobbyists, the man shows that, inspite of his rhetoric, he has no real character. He doesn't fight for anyone, only for his own self-interest"

()

"What the man is doing is outrageous. I couldn't care if Elmer Thud was the republican nominee, and Jon Huntsman is certainly that, but we need to stand by this nominee. Santorum doing this is just devastating and just hands the election to Obama. We don't need four more years of THIS.

()

Sean Hannity: "Why wouldn't you have just endorsed Huntsman?"
Rick Santorum: "I've stated the answer before, and its a simple one: I believe we need a real conservative out there, speaking on real conservative values!"
Sean Hannity: "You do realize that you won't win the White House, and are just dividing the vote."
Rick Santorum: "I don't believe so. I believe that most of America will realize I represent them. They are tired of government regulations, and they are tired of the liberal paradox of just letting you do whatever you want."
Sean Hannity: "But wasn't America founded on freedom, Mr. Santorum!"
Rick Santorum: "That's not the kind of freedom, I believe, that the founders would've endorsed. Certainly not the kind of freedom I endorse. I believe staunchly in family values and having the traditional family values."
Sean Hannity: "While I agree with you on a lot of issues, possibly more than Huntsman himself, I still think you are spiting the Party and giving the Election to Barack Obama."
Rick Santorum: "I don't think so, but thanks anyway."

Meanwhile, with Barack Obama

()

David Gregory: "What will your plan be for a second term?"
Barack Obama: "You know, David, that is a good question. From my perspective, what I need to do is to continue what I've been doing: bringing the American people to change Washington from the outside. Cause, look, we've still got work to do..."
David Gregory: "Anything specific about your second term?"
Barack Obama: "Well, since I would've won a second term, It would cause the GOP stop gating to stop, and we will try to work some things out in terms of what will happen with the economy and the debt and..."


"With the entrance of Santorum, he already gets bombarded by his former friends during the GOP Primary: Fox News. This bombardment shows in the negation of his poll numbers, he's already down 5 points just after his announcement. And Obama had a disasterous appearance on Meet The Press where he wasn't able to even address what he would do with a second term. Meanwhile, with Jon Huntsman's campaign, he seems to be holding the fort rather well, with disenfranchised democrats, moderates, and even conservatives due to Santorum's constant attacks from Fox News, going to him. He's already back in the lead, and tomorrow he's dropping the name of his VP." - Chris Matthews

National Polls:
Jon Huntsman/??? - 40%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 34%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann - 15%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 8%

With Mitch Daniels:
Jon Huntsman/Mitch Daniels - 41%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 35%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann - 13%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 8%

With Rand Paul:
Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul - 42%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 35%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 11%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 9%

With Brian Sanoval:
Jon Huntsman/Brian Sandoval: 40%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 32%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 17%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 8%


Regular Map:
()

Daniels Map:
()

Paul Map:
()

Sandoval Map:
()

I liked how Hannity took Santorum took Santorum down a notch. Even Hannity believes in freedom when it affects Republicans ;)

And its...

()

RAAAAAAAAAAAND PAUL

"I accept Jon Huntsman's offer to run on the ticket for the presidency of the United States. We will take our country back from the depths of Obamanomics and the Fed's irreversibly bad economic policies. At this point, nothing can stop us!" - Rand Paul

()

"As the polls show, with the pick of Rand Paul, Santorums stock shrinks. However, it shrinks even WORSE than the polls expected. Santorum's campaign is leaking: the continued barrage of negativity against him from former Republican allies is drowning him. Only Tom Tancredo and Mike Huckabee are staying with him, and only one endorsement is being considered as a positive. This pushes not only Kentucky and Tennessee further to Huntsman, but also Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, North Carolina, and even Indiana and Pennyslvania, states that were not considered part of the Rand Paul bounce. Even Minnesota, a lean Obama state, is moving closer and closer to a toss-up, partially because of Michelle Bachmann's controversial statements as of late. This race is getting more and more interesting each time we get to it" - Wolf Blitzer

"It doesn't look like Santorum is going to have any momentum, and due to the 15% polling limit to get onto the debates, it doesn't look like he's going to have any shot at even getting into the debates, which would be devastating to his campaign." - John King

National Polls:
Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul: 44%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 36%
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 8%

The Map at this Point:
()

I think Ron Paul introducing Rand the RNC would be a great way to fire up the base. It would turn Paul supporters (who generally like Huntsman anyway) back to the fold if they are flirting with Johnson's campaign as well. I really look forward to seeing the conventions in this timeline.

Obama approval numbers may be devastating if he's polling at 34%.

They are lower in this than they are in real life (possibly because of an even starker lack of vision), but Huntsman is also taking a significant chunk of Obama's audience, people who kind of approve of how he's doing, but are ultimately disappointed (which, it seems to me, is a giant audience).

The Republican National Convention

National Polls:
Huntsman/Paul: 42%
Obama/Biden: 40%
Santorum/Bachmann: 10%
Other: 0%
Undecided: 8%

"Before the convention, the Obama campaign has been making headway, due to Obama's revamped and newly more progressive campaigning style. Obama has moved more and more to the left on social issues, while not making fiscal issues a huge part of his campaign: in other words, putting emphasis on some of his strengths in terms of demographics. However, Paul has been hammering Obama's violations of civil liberties, while Huntsman has been hammering his poor fiscal ideas, so as a ticket, they've been managing to hold down the incumbent president, but for how long?" - Wolf Blitzer

Noteworthy Speakers at the GOP Convention:
()

"Huntsman will tell us the hard truths we need to hear!"

()

"The American dream doesn't reside with this President! It's time a move in the right direction, and that is in the direction of Huntsman/Paul!"

()

"Santorum is proposing a wholly authortarian agenda on America, while Obama is proposing a wholly liberal agenda for America. Let's stop making agenda and lets focus on fixing the problems that we have in this country, and there is only one ticket that will do that, and that is Huntsman/Paul!"

()

"A lot of you maybe wondering: Gary, what are you doing here, I thought you were the nominee for the Libertarian party? Well, I think liberty has come to the Republican party, and the Huntsman/Paul ticket is just what America needs: not fiscal liberalism nor social conservatism, but fiscal conservatism and social tolerance!"

()

"I am proud to introduce the young man who has made me the proudest in my lifetime, on the only ticket that endorses us to get out of Afghanistan: my son, RAND PAUL."

()

"This was a convention that soared... strong speeches from just about everyone, a touching endorsement from Ron Paul, and a surprising endorsement from former Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who also put on a strong speech." - Bret Baier

"Yes, but Bret, I think, what started from Christie's speech, was too much preparing for future runs and publicity shows, not completely supporting of their nominee. Even though a lot of speeches were, not enough for it to be a completely effective convention, I suspect only a 3-4 point bump. Either way, no convention can look good for Santorum." - Brit Hume

National Poll:
Huntsman/Paul: 46%
Obama/Biden: 37%
Santorum/Bachmann: 9%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 8%

Jon Huntsman today, Rand Paul tomorrow, LIBERTY FOREVER!  Our time is NOW!

:D

Better than real life.

The Democratic National Convention, Major Boost for the President!

"It seems as if the DNC really touted Obama's message very well. While they couldn't throw many hurdles at the Huntsman/Paul ticket (though they did throw some extremism accusations at the vice president), they did throw many attacks on the third party candidacy of Rick Santorum, further sinking his boat. It appears that right after the convention, the President is seeing his first lead since Santorum entered the race, albeit much narrower than that point." - Wolf Blitzer

"Going into the debates, this isn't a good position for Huntsman/Paul, but Obama back in 08 was behind after the conventions, so the excitement could wear off quickly." - John King

Obama/Biden: 43%
Huntsman/Paul: 42%
Santorum/Bachmann: 6%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 8%

Toss-ups Map
()

No Toss-Ups
()

If only this were real!

Agreed!

The First Debate

()

"Inspite of the rule of 15%, Rick Santorum had managed to strike a deal where, since he had performed at 20% at one point, he would be allowed one debate and see where it goes from there, should his poll numbers go up to 12%, he would be allowed to the next debate, and 15% to the one afteward. This requires a great performance on his behalf, we're about to see what happens with the candidates. Right now, Huntsman is back in the lead, but by a very thin margin, leading a possible resurgence of the incumbent president should he do well." - Wolf Blitzer

National Polling before the Debate:
Huntsman/Paul: 44%
Obama/Biden: 43%
Santorum/Bachmann:8%
Other: 0%
Undecided: 5%

Bob Scheiffer - "As you all know, the economy hasn't quite returned yet... We're still stuck in the 8% unemployment range. What be all of your respective plans in order to shift this economy and why would they be better than your opponents, first Governor Huntsman."

Jon Huntsman - "Well, my plan is simple: cutting taxes, flattening the tax code, and getting rid of regulations harmful to businesses. I want to slice all of the loopholes so that our tax system is more efficient, in order to cut taxes for the people. I feel like this would free up the economy, which is what we need right now: the freer the markets the freer the people. We also need to make serious cuts, as this debt is a serious issue. I've taken the Ron Paul plank of proprosing a one trillion dollar cut in the budget in the first year. I'm aware that some programs might not get the funding they want, but my feeling is that we need to cut back not only the dollars and cents to make these programs more efficient, but in order to save our country from economic collapse we need to make these cuts. I also am at odds with the Senator from Pennyslvania in that I will also make cuts to the Military as president. Defense is out of the question, but our military doesn't need to be everywhere it needs to be, plus its time to come home from Afghanistan. Through this, we will make our ways towards a balanced budget."

Bob Scheiffer - "Senator Santorum?"

Rick Santorum - "Well that's all nice, but we need an economic plan that benefits families. Huntsman makes all this talk of cutting loopholes, but doesn't mention the negative effects that cutting all of those loopholes I have. I propose a lot of the same principles, but in different ways. I would not cut those loop holes, families need them to build a traditional family. I would also not cut into the military, because that puts our military in serious danger. What the Governor is talking about is pure Ron Paul-ism, and that is why I left the republican party!"

Bob Scheiffer - "Your response, Mr.Huntsman?"

Jon Huntsman - "Well Senator Santorum, it's nice to see you basically admitting that you don't care about the fiscal future of this country, because the facts are there: we have a 16 trillion dollar deficit, we need to make serious action now in order to get rid of it. Cutting loopholes would allow for us to pay for it. Just screaming out about how tax cuts are going to solve the problem isn't going to solve the problem. We also need cuts in spending (including the military), and cuts in the loopholes. Don't just take my word for it, look at his record: 5 trillion added to the deficit under the Bush administration. He voted with Bush nearly 100% of the time. I don't want to go the route of George W. Bush, I want to go my own route and fix this countries economic problems."

Bob Scheiffer - "President Obama, you haven't gotten much of a chance to speak yet, have you?"

Barack Obama - "Doesn't look like it Bob, haha. Look, changing the course half way through isn't the way to go. We're still fighting for our economic future. We were in a recession when I came into office, and we are still pushing our way through. Without my policies, the stimilus, the bailouts, we wouldn't be where we are now. We'd be worse off. And that is why I think both of these men are wrong on their economic proposals, and we need to continue what we've been doing."

Bob Scheiffer - "So you are proposing another stimulus"

Barack Obama: "That is correct."


"From that snippet of the debate, the president, inspite of a huge group of reasons to vote for him given by the DNC, dwelled in non-specifics, never quite able to make his plans clear. His ideas were broad and easy to snipe at. Governor Huntsman and Senator Santorum took their shots at his plans, and It seemed like a very weak debate for the President. Watch for his poll numbers to take a dip or a dive, depending on how the public views it." - Anderson Cooper

National Polls:
Huntsman/Paul: 47%
Obama/Biden: 40%
Santorum/Bachmann: 8%
Other: 0%
Undecided: 5%

This is really interesting man; keep it up!  (Kinda wish we'd nominated Huntsman now; then Santorum's political career would be over IOTL too ;))

Election Night

()

"The Polls are starting to close in the first states around this nation, and we are already starting to get some calls: The President has won Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachussets, New York, Maryland, and Delaware:"

Vermont:
Barack Obama: 58.32%
Jon Huntsman: 38.23%
Rick Santorum: 1.45%
Other: 2%

Massachussets (Santorum not on the Ballot):
Barack Obama: 56.35%
Jon Huntsman: 42.65%
Other: 1%

Rhode Island:
Barack Obama: 57.82%
Jon Huntsman: 41.54%
Rick Santorum: 0.64%

New York:
Barack Obama: 60.00%
Jon Huntsman: 39.58%
Others: 0.42%

Maryland:
Barack Obama: 54.45%
Jon Huntsman: 37.83%
Rick Santorum: 7.72%

Delaware:
Barack Obama: 60.12%
Jon Huntsman: 32.23%
Rick Santorum: 5.65%

D.C.:
Barack Obama: 93.24%
Jon Huntsman: 7.76%

"While Jon Huntsman pulls out with Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Viriginia, North Carolina, and surprisingly early on in the race, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. So far to close to call is New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, and Ohio.

Georgia:
Jon Huntsman: 48.53%
Barack OBama: 35.23%
Rick Santorum: 16.24%

South Carolina:
Jon Huntsman: 47.24%
Barack Obama: 33.65%
Rick Santorum: 19.11%

West Virginia:
Jon Huntsman: 52.21%
Barack Obama: 35.26%
Rick Santorum: 12.53%

Virginia:
Jon Huntsman: 50.52%
Barack Obama: 41.24%
Rick Santorum: 8.24%

North Carolina:
Jon Huntsman: 50.20%
Barack Obama: 40.27%
Rick Santorum: 9.53%

New Hampshire:
Jon Huntsman: 53.45%
Barack Obama: 45.12%
Rick Santorum: 1.43%

Pennsylvania:
Jon Huntsman: 48.35%
Barack Obama: 43.10%
Rick Santorum: 8.55%

New Jersey:
Barack Obama: 48.45%
Jon Huntsman: 47.99%
Rick Santorum: 3.66%

Conneticut:
Jon Huntsman: 50.24%
Barack Obama: 49.76%

Maine:
Barack Obama: 49.52%
Jon Huntsman: 47.98%
Rick Santorum: 1.54%

Ohio:
Jon Huntsman: 47.58%
Barack Obama: 45.24%
Rick Santorum: 7.18%

The Map So Far:
()

"States the president shouldn't have to be competitive in he is, but here's the most shocking one: Maine. Maine's polls weren't even close until the last two weeks. Now its turning into a toss-up state over night. This doesn't look good for the incumbent's re-election chances, pointing to 1980 where Reagan and Carter were, not necessarily to their qualities and qualifications. And it will certainly be a closer election than that one, to be sure."

Why does it seem like Samtorum is sapping more support from Obama than from Huntsman?

Yeah this is a little odd. Obama performing at 2008 like levels in safe blue states and then losing swing/lean-D states when Santorum would be splitting the right-wing vote?

Well Huntsman is draining big amounts of Independent and Democratic votes in swing states from Obama because he seems more independent to them (reason why Santorum is performing easily better in Southern states), but in a lot of safe D states they see him for how a lot of people on this board do see him: really conservative.

"Well, now it seems we have some more calls for the night, first, The President wins Illinois and Maine.

Illinois:
Barack Obama: 54.35%
Jon Huntsman: 38.54%
Rick Santorum: 8.11%

Maine:
Barack Obama: 50.23%
Jon Huntsman: 48.24%
Rick Santorum: 1.53%

Albeit one elector WILL go to Governor Huntsman

while Jon Huntsman wins Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, and Oklahoma:

Kentucky:
Jon Huntsman: 50.45%
Barack Obama: 37.56%
Rick Santorum: 12.99%

Tennessee:
Jon Huntsman: 45.33%
Barack Obama: 33.45%
Rick Santorum: 21.22%

Indiana:
Jon Huntsman: 50.34%
Barack Obama: 41.22%
Rick Santorum: 8.44%

Missouri:
Jon Huntsman: 49.53%
Barack Obama: 42.82%
Rick Santorum: 7.65%

Michigan:
Jon Huntsman: 47.44%
Barack Obama: 42.23%
Rick Santorum: 10.33%

Oklahoma:
Jon Huntsman: 38.43%
Barack Obama: 33.85%
Rick Santorum: 27.78%

And the first calls for the night for Senator Santorum are the two states he's led the whole time: Mississippi and Alabama.

Alabama:
Rick Santorum: 43.55%
Barack Obama: 37.43%
Jon Huntsman: 19.02%

Mississippi:
Rick Santorum: 36.55%
Barack Obama: 32.32%
Jon Huntsman: 31.13%

Several states remain to be called, and some surprising ones: Arkansas, Louisana, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Florida.

Arkansas:
Jon Huntsman: 35.45%
Barack Obama: 34.44%
Rick Santorum: 30.11%

Lousiana:
Rick Santorum: 34.43%
Jon Huntsman: 32.79%
Barack Obama: 32.78%

Iowa:
Jon Huntsman: 43.43%
Barack Obama: 42.82%
Rick Santorum: 13.75%

Minnesota:
Jon Huntsman: 42.44%
Barack Obama: 42.02%
Rick Santorum: 15.56%

Wisconsin:
Jon Huntsman: 45.45%
Barack Obama: 44.90%
Rick Santorum: 9.65%

()

Jon Huntsman: 146
Barack Obama: 86
Rick Santorum: 15

Its looking like a bad night for Obama...can't wait to see how this turns out :) Will it continue after the election and into the next Presidents term?

I'm thinking it will continue until 2020 or 2024 should I have the energy for it.

Final Election Result


()

()

Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul: 48.85% 339
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 43.08% 183
Rick Santorum/Michelle Bachmann: 8.07% 16

"There were some shocking wins, Santorum pulled off two states and the most conservative sector of Nebraska, Jon Huntsman pulled New Jersey, Minnesota, Connecticut, and an elector from Maine, and the President managed to win Ohio and the biggest shocker of all Louisiana, a state that otherwise would've been 2 to 1 Republican if not for a Santorum run. Even then, this election result seemed set in stone since the end of the primaries: Jon Huntsman will be our next president." - Wolf Blitzer

What the hell happened in Ohio?

Santorum drew a tad too many people towards the end and Obama polled out by skin of his teeth.

Switching Pennsylvania and Ohio might be more realistic, in my opinion. Connecticut and Minnesota seem unlikely to go for Huntsman, even in this election. Otherwise, the results are fine.

Wouldn't I been just intolerable during this whole thing? But that is a beautiful map. Huntsman wins my state? I'm in tears even now.

No republican would win atleast by that much with a third party conservative.

If blue-states realize Huntsman is a conservative, as you said before, how's he carrying Conn., Oregon, Minnesota and Maine-1? And, more important, doesn't Santorum have some kind of favourite-son effect in PA? Because he's delievered Ohio (a toss-up state) to Obama, but not Pennsylvania (lean dem state), where he comes from.

Anyway, this is good :) It'll be interesting to read about how Huntsman works with the Senate and the House. Will he become a true conservative or will his main support come from the moderates -RINOS and DINOS?

I don't know about Santorum in PA; look at the 06 senate race there (losing by 20 points as an incumbent) and many believe he pulled out of the primaries when he did to save his political career, because if he hadn't he might've lost the PA primary as many polls predicted.  Pennsylvania doesn't really like him that much IMO.

But yeah, I'm really looking forward to seeing more of this, keep it coming man!

Did the Republicans get control of the Senate and keep the House in this TL?

Short Wrap-Up of Huntsman's Term: It's a Miracle!

Approval at the beginning of term: 67%
Approval right before the democratic primaries: 60%
Lowest Approval: 51% (Fighting with Democrats in Congress for the ultimate repeal of The Affordable Care Act)
Highest Approval: 69% (Unemployment hits 5%)

Unemployment now: 4.6%

Polls against probable Democratic opponents:

Vs. Cuomo:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
Andrew Cuomo: 35%
Undecided: 15%

Vs. Warner:
Jon Huntsman: 51%
Mark Warner: 36%
Undecided: 13%

Vs. O'Malley:
Jon Huntsman: 56%
Martin O'Malley: 30%
Undecided: 14%

Vs. Warren:
Jon Huntsman: 60%
Elizabeth: 28%
Undecided: 12%

Vs. Hickenlooper:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
John Hickenlooper: 30%
Undecided: 20%

Vs. Schweitzer:
Jon Huntsman: 49%
Brian Schweitzer: 34%
Undecided: 17%

Vs. Clinton:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
Hillary Clinton: 40%
Undecided: 10%

"It's clear that Hillary Clinton, who has made it seem as if it is pretty unlikely that she will run, has the best shot at beating President Huntsman, and even she trails by 10 points. She is followed by Governor Cuomo, Senator Warner (who hasn't yet announced), Former Governor Schweitzer, who trail by 15 points. While they are all very distant, most anything is possible. Hickenlooper trails by 20 points, but 20 percent of the people are undecided because nobody knows him, so even he is a possibility. Every other candidate who seems to have thrown their name in, are joke candidates at this point, especially Warren, who is leading in the polls for the Democrat primaries very early in the season, even though she barely won a spot as a House of Representatives in Massachusetts in 2014 after beating former Congressmen Joesph Kennedy in the primary for Barney Frank's old spot."

Democratic Primary Polls as of March 2015 (without Mark Warner):
Congresswoman Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 15%
Former Governor Brian Schweitzer: 14%
Governor John Hickenlooper: 9%
Former Governor Martin O'Malley: 6%
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 3%
Mayor Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 34%

Democratic Primary Polls as of March 2015 (with Mark Warner):
Congresswoman Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Senator Mark Warner: 16%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 13%
Former Governor Brian Schweitzer: 12%
Governor John Hickenlooper: 7%
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 3%
Mayor Julian Castro: ~0%
Undecided: 31%

Hilldog makes it very clear she isn't running, Mark Warner jumps into the game!

()

"I am announcing my candidacy for the presidency of the United States because I can stop the gridlock in Washington and bring healthcare reform to the country, all while keeping towards a message of change through moderation!" - Mark Warner, announcing his candidacy.

()

"I am delighted that people would want me to run, but I will not be making that leap. As the great Lyndon Baines Johnson, I will not run, nor will I accept, your nomination to be President of the United States of America." - Hillary Clinton

"Two game changers here: Mark Warner, a moderate, can nullify Jon Huntsman stature as the mdoerate conservative president by being even more centrist than he is. A smart move, plus American since the repeal have been more and more favorable towards healthcare reform, which is a strong plank of his candidacy. However, the Democrats just lost their absolute best chance at changing the white house: Hillary Clinton has chosen not to run for the presidency. This shakes things up, and along with some serious gaffes from Congresswoman Warren and a couple of controversies involving Governor Cuomo, it looks like Warner is surging to the leader of the pack." - Wolf Blitzer

Democratic Primary Polls:
Mark Warner: 19%
Brian Schweitzer: 15%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
John Hickenlooper: 8%
Joe Biden: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 32%

Iowa Polls:
Brian Schweitzer: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
John Hickenlooper: 14%
Joe Biden: 6%
Mark Warner: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Andrew Cuomo: 1%
Undecided: 32%

New Hampshire:
Andrew Cuomo: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Julian Castro: 8%
Mark Warner: 7%
John Hickenlooper: 7%
Brian Schweitzer: 5%
Joe Biden: 1%
Undecided: 36%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 32%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Julian Castro: 6%
John Hickenlooper: 6%
Brian Schweitzer: 2%
Joe Biden: 2%
Elizabeth Warren: 2%
Undecided: 38%

September: Last, but perhaps Least, Congressman Antonio Villaraigosa joins the race

()

"I will be running for the Presidency of the United States because I have a unique vision for the United States!" - Antonio Villaraigosa

"Congressman Villaraigosa makes a very late entry into the race, and it's really impacted his chances too: Some polls during the late spring/early summer months had him polling as high as five percent with the possibility of more, but now that momentum has drained and he is in Julian Castro/Joe Biden land with around 1% of the vote, and in some states, no supporters. But who knows, that was what was thought of the fate for President Huntsman, and look how he turned it around? so his candidacy, even if it ends predictably, should be an interesting one to watch. Can we get a check up on the current state of the race otherwise?" - Wolf Blitzer

"Well, it looks like Mark Warner is holding on to his lead, though Andrew Cuomo is now starting to breathe down his neck again, due to a tour of his touting his record as Governor of New York. Elizabeth Warren has been tumbling down: she's polling at around 5% now where she was in contention for frontrunner status just a couple weeks ago. This is partially due to gaffes, partially due to democrats realizing she is completely unelectable on the national stage, and partially due to some poor early debate performances. Don't count out Schweitzer or Hickenlooper. Brian Schweitzer is just a point behind Governor Cuomo, while Hickenlooper is within margin of error of Governor Cuomo. This is really shaping up to be a really interesting race on the Democratic side."

Democratic Primary Polling as of September:
Mark Warner: 21%
Andrew Cuomo: 17%
Brian Schweitzer: 16%
John Hickenlooper: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Joe Biden: 2%
Antonio Villagairosa: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 23%

Iowa Caucus:
Brian Schweitzer: 24%
John Hickenlooper: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Mark Warner: 8%
Joe Biden: 3%
Andrew Cuomo: 2%
Antonio Villagairosa: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 25%

New Hampshire:
Andrew Cuomo: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Mark Warner: 10%
Brian Schweitzer: 8%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Joe Biden: 2%
Antonio Villagairosa: 1%
Julian Castro: ~0%
Undecided: 29%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 34%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Julian Castro: 12%
Joe Biden: 7%
John Hickenlooper: 3%
Elizabeth Warren: 1%
Antonio Villagairosa: ~0%
Undecided: 31%

Nevada:
John Hickenlooper: 28%
Brian Schweitzer: 20%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Antonio Villagairosa: 8%
Mark Warner: 5%
Joe Biden: 4%
Elizabeth Warren: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 21%

Iowa Caucus Night

Poll right before the Iowa Caucus:
Brian Schweitzer: 24%
John Hickenlooper: 23%
Mark Warner: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Joe Biden: 6%
Andrew Cuomo: 5%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Undecided: 16%

"Brian Schweitzer has been holding a fairly consistent fight with John Hickenlooper for the lead in Iowa. However, the more establishment candidate Mark Warner has been blowing up in the state as of recent, showing amazing momentum, while Elizabeth Warren has been sinking in the state like the rest of her candidacy. Tonight is that important night: Time to find out just who comes out on top." - Chris Matthews

Iowa Caucus 1% of the Precincts Reporting:
Mark Warner: 23.34%
Brian Schweitzer: 22.84%
John Hickenlooper: 22.54%
Andrew Cuomo: 12.82%
Elizabeth Warren: 7.33%
Joe Biden: 7.32%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2.43%
Julian Castro: 1.38%

"Wow. In a shocking turn of events, Mark Warner has taken Iowa hostage. The barrage of ads from Schweitzer to Hickenlooper has shot his unfavorables sky high, while Hickenlooper's lack of response to those ads, due to his promise not to release negative ads, while in the beginning sinking Schweitzer's favorables further, is now starting to sink him further, thus allowing for a Warner comeback. Also note: Andrew Cuomo is in 4th place. Andrew Cuomo never made a stop anywhere in Iowa, never made a campaign speech in Iowa, and has almost no ground game in the state. It shows his strength as a candidate, and is a great sign of a massive victory in New Hampshire, where he is almost assured a win due to the sinkage of Elizabeth Warren." - Lawrence O'Donnell

"Speaking of Warren, at this point, there are reports of her quitting the race already. While her performance is not nearly what was expected even by polling the day of, she still is ahead of three other candidates: Former Vice President Joe Biden, who, despite of being a bottom tier candidate the whole time, has made effort to try to win the presidency yet again, and a congressman and a mayor who obviously had no chance to start because one started too late and the other has no ground game anywhere because he doesn't have the experience that one would want in a presidential candidate. All four of these people have zero chance but are fun to watch for a little bit." - Rachel Maddow

"And now, we have even more results from Iowa, and a bit of a shocker to a fans of him: John Hickenlooper is in third place."

Iowa Caucus 54% of the Precincts Reporting:
Brian Schweitzer: 25.43%
Mark Warner: 25.42%
John Hickenlooper: 22.22%
Andrew Cuomo: 12.82%
Joe Biden: 6.53%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.22%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 1.75%
Julian Castro: 0.61%

"Well, while this doesn't end Hickenlooper's campaign, he focused a lot of his resoures on Iowa, and it all depends on a win in Nevada. Should he not pull off a victory there, his campaign will be quixotic in nature if continues further on. Unfortunately, even if Schweitzer loses Iowa as well, Schweitzer has been polling better everywhere else, which means the possible delegate haul for him is much higher, so Hickenlooper's chances are further sliced." - Chris Matthews

"What does it mean if Schweitzer wins Iowa, even with Mark Warner's last minute surge?" - Rachel Maddow

"Well, it all just goes to show that Mark Warner COULD'VE won Iowa. It might be even better, since he could go the Bill Clinton route in look back on that state, where New Hampshire is much less likely considering he is not even in contention in the state at this moment in time, and hasn't put any resources into that state. Basically, if you're looking at two frontrunners in the race, it would have to be Governor Cuomo and Senator Warner." - Chris Matthews

"Speaking of Senator Warner, he will be taking second place tonight, as Former Governor Brian Schweitzer wins the Iowa Caucus!"

()

"Wow guys, this is truly a great moment. We won the Iowa caucus, and like former President Barack Obama, we will carry this moment to a bold victory in these primaries, and ultimately, a bold victory to this White House!" - Brian Schweitzer

Iowa Caucus:
Brian Schweitzer: 24.56%
Mark Warner: 24.32%
John Hickenlooper: 22.95%
Andrew Cuomo: 13.53%
Joe Biden: 7.12%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.95%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2.11%
Julian Castro: 0.46%

()

Delegate Count:
Brian Schweitzer: 16
Mark Warner: 15
John Hickenlooper: 14

Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro drop out, with one endorsing Brian Schweitzer, the other endorsing Andrew Cuomo respectively.

()

"I know Brian Schweitzer, he is a good friend of mine, and the only candidate left who will really change Washington!" - Elizabeth Warren

()

"Look, perhaps I ran for President too early. I can understand that. Luckily, there is one candidate who represents true leadership and boldness that I feel like would change the way we do things on capital hill, and that person is Governor Andrew Cuomo, the next president of the United States!" - Julian Castro

Other announcements

"Wow, Iowa. Looks like our message of courage through moderacy has sweeped the nation! I hope to continue this message to New Hampshire, South Carolina, all the way to the White House!" - Mark Warner

"If you told us one year ago that we would be less than two percentage points from winning the Iowa caucus, I would've told you to hold your horses, because that isn't happening. Well you know what? It did happen, and I'm glad we made it happen!" - John Hickenlooper

"Look folks, this isn't a one state campaign. We're moving on! We're going onwards to other states. So what we lose in Iowa? We got the whole rest of the nation to win, and I certainly plan to do that, America!" - Joe Biden

"Look, I was expecting this much. However, we've got more primaries. The pundits can say what they like, but we will march forward into the primary and see what else is in store for this campaign, cause we've gone nowhere if not up." - Antonio Villaraigosa

"I would just like to thank to people of Iowa, because I wasn't expecting this. Watch us as we take the presidency with us!" - Andrew Cuomo

Democratic Primary Poll:
Mark Warner: 28%
Andrew Cuomo: 26%
Brian Schweitzer: 14%
John Hickenlooper: 10%
Joe Biden: 5%
Antonio Villaragosa: 3%
Undecided: 14%

New Hampshire Poll:
Andrew Cuomo: 44%
Brian Schweitzer: 14%
John Hickenlooper: 12%
Antonio Villaragosa: 8%
Mark Warner: 5%
Joe Biden: 1%
Undecided: 16%

Nevada:
Brian Schweitzer: 32%
John Hickenlooper: 28%
Antonio Villaragosa: 8%
Joe Biden: 6%
Mark Warner: 4%
Andrew Cuomo: 4%
Undecided: 18%

Michigan:
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
Brian Schweitzer: 24%
Mark Warner: 18%
John Hickenlooper: 8%
Joe Biden: 5%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 3%
Undecided: 17%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 38%
Andrew Cuomo: 18%
Joe Biden: 9%
Brian Schweitzer: 7%
Antonio Villaragosa: 5%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Undecided: 18%

The New Hampshire Primary

()

New Hampshire:
Andrew Cuomo: 51.23%
Brian Schweitzer: 20.34%
John Hickenlooper: 12.35%
Mark Warner: 11.35%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 3.24%
Joe Biden: 1.49%

"It looks like the only two people getting any delegates from New Hampshire tonight are the obvious winner of the first primary Governor Andrew Cuomo, who beats the only other delegate contender by over 30 points, Brian Schweitzer. Of course, this was expected, even if Elizabeth Warren were still in the race. How are the other candidates dealing with this giant loss?" - Wolf Blitzer

"Well, the fact is there: Former Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Antonio Villaraigosa are done after tonight, and looked cooked after the Iowa Caucus anyway. Antonio Villaraigosa can't get a Jon Huntsman-esqe surge after this because he also fumbled the New Hampshire caucus. If any of you remeber, at that point current front runner Mitt Romney narrowly beat Jon Huntsman, but Huntsman made a strong mark where he was previously polling in the 1% range. However, Villaraigosa has done nothing to change this, so his dropping at this point would be smart for his political career." - John King

"What about 3rd and 4th place winners, I know Governor Schweitzer is happy with his result, particularly because he was focusing on states that are more towards his working man message?" - Wolf Blitzer

"Well, John Hickenlooper put some resources into the state of New Hampshire, he was hoping for a slight upset there, so that might be an issue for his camp. However, his focus wasn't there, and he's currently leading in some new Nevada polls so we might see a surge from the Governor from Colorado. As for Governor Warner, this is most definitely a precursor for bigger things from him, and he is expected to devastate the field in South Carolina much like Governor Cuomo. Like Cuomo's performance in Iowa, nobody was expecting Warner to pass the double digit range, and that alone is an acheivement. It's a testament to his current frontrunner-ness in spite of not yet winning a state." - John King

"Well, we're going to look and see what happens next, as it appears that Former Vice President Joe Biden appears to be dropping out." - Wolf Blitzer

Joe Biden leaves the race, endorses Mark Warner

()

"Look folks, this race is no longer viable for me. I can not and will not keep on running. Instead, I am endorsing my good friend Mark Warner because I know he will take the country in the right direction! He's a good man and he knows his compromises!" - Joe Biden

National Polling:
Andrew Cuomo: 29%
Mark Warner: 27%
Brian Schweitzer: 20%
John Hickenlooper: 11%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 1%
Undecided: 12%

Nevada:
John Hickenlooper: 30%
Brian Schweitzer: 29%
Mark Warner: 12%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 10%
Andrew Cuomo: 8%
Undecided: 11%

Michigan:
Andrew Cuomo: 33%
Brian Schweitzer: 28%
Mark Warner: 16%
John Hickenlooper: 10%
Antonio Villaraigosa: ~0%
Undecided: 13%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 42%
Andrew Cuomo: 23%
Brian Schweitzer: 18%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Antonio Villaraigosa: ~0%
Undecided: 12%

Florida:
Mark Warner: 29%
Andrew Cuomo: 28%
Brian Schweitzer: 15%
John Hickenlooper: 14%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 2%
Undecided: 12%

()

Brian Schweitzer: 20
Andrew Cuomo: 18
Mark Warner: 15
John Hickenlooper: 14

()

Nevada:
John Hickenlooper: 32.53%
Brian Schweitzer: 30.84%
Mark Warner: 15.21%
Andrew Cuomo: 15.04%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 6.38%

()

Michigan:
Brian Schweitzer: 29.85%
Andrew Cuomo: 28.21%  
Mark Warner: 23.82%  
John Hickenlooper: 17.21%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 0.91%

Congressman Antonio Villaraigosa withdraws from the race, endorses Governor Cuomo

()

()

Brian Schweitzer: 68
Andrew Cuomo: 58
Mark Warner: 49
John Hickenlooper: 45

National Polls:
Andrew Cuomo: 26%
Brian Schweitzer: 25%
Mark Warner: 24%
John Hickenlooper: 13%
Undecided: 12%

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 39%
Andrew Cuomo: 28%
Brian Schweitzer: 13%
John Hickenlooper: 8%
Undecided: 12%

Florida:
Andrew Cuomo: 27%
Mark Warner: 27%
Brian Schweitzer: 20%
John Hickenlooper: 15%
Undecided: 11%

Major Super Tuesday States

Arizona:
John Hickenlooper: 35%
Mark Warner: 27%
Brian Schweitzer: 10%
Andrew Cuomo: 10%
Undecided: 18%

Georgia:
Mark Warner: 40%
Andrew Cuomo: 32%
Brian Schweitzer: 7%
John Hickenlooper: 4%
Undecided: 17%

California:
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
John Hickenlooper: 22%
Mark Warner: 19%
Brian Schweitzer: 18%
Undecided: 16%

Illinois:
Andrew Cuomo: 35%
Mark Warner: 30%
Brian Schweitzer: 10%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Undecided: 20%

Missouri:
Mark Warner: 34%
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
Brian Schweitzer: 16%
John Hickenlooper: 10%
Undecided: 15%

Mark Warner defeats Andrew Cuomo by double digits in South Carolina as expected!

()

South Carolina:
Mark Warner: 41.23%
Andrew Cuomo: 29.43%
Brian Schweitzer: 18.42%
John Hickenlooper: 10.92%

In a narrow and bitter race, Cuomo pulls out of the race stronger than ever, beating a surging Warner!

Florida:
Andrew Cuomo: 35.34%
Mark Warner: 34.85%
Brian Schweitzer: 17.35%
John Hickenlooper: 12.46%

()

Overall Delegates so far:
Andrew Cuomo: 159
Mark Warner: 137
Brian Schweitzer: 108
John Hickenlooper: 45

"We have two major people coming into the frontlines: Governor Andrew Cuomo and Senator Mark Warner. Both have campaigned heavily and have made strong performances in important states, and as a result, have the highest delegates and the most momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Former Governor Schweitzer, unfortunately, inspite of his shocking blow to Cuomo in Michigan, is now reduced to third in delegates, and most likely will end up in third on Super Tuesday, even if he wins every state he could possibly win. The real loser right now is John Hickenlooper, who, in the last two primaries, has failed to pick up a single delegate by falling below 15%. Should he continue this trend, he will find himself sooner rather than later out of the race." - Chris Matthews

Super Tuesday Map
()

Andrew Cuomo States (Strongest to Weakest):

New York:
Andrew Cuomo: 75%
Mark Warner: 10%
Brian Schweitzer: 4%
John Hickenlooper: 3%
Undecided: 8%

Massachusetts:
Andrew Cuomo: 60%
Brian Schweitzer: 19%
Mark Warner: 5%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Undecided: 11%

Connecticut:
Andrew Cuomo: 52%
Brian Schweitzer: 24%
Mark Warner: 8%
John Hickenlooper: 4%
Undecided: 12%

New Jersey:
Andrew Cuomo: 42%
Mark Warner: 26%
Brian Schweitzer: 15%
John Hickenlooper: 7%
Undecided: 10%

Delaware:
Andrew Cuomo: 40%
Mark Warner: 38%
Brian Schweitzer: 6%
John Hickenlooper: 3%
Undecided: 13%

California:
Andrew Cuomo: 30%
Mark Warner: 29%
Brian Schweitzer: 18%
John Hickenlooper: 15%
Undecided: 8%


Mark Warner States:

Alabama:
Mark Warner: 53%
Andrew Cuomo: 22%
Brian Schweitzer: 10%
John Hickenlooper: 3%
Undecided: 12%

Arkansas:
Mark Warner: 52%
Andrew Cuomo: 21%
Brian Schweitzer: 14%
John Hickenlooper: 3%
Undecided: 10%

Tennessee:
Mark Warner: 52%
Andrew Cuomo: 27%
Brian Schweitzer: 8%
John Hickenlooper: 4%
Undecided: 9%

Oklahoma:
Mark Warner: 46%
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
Brian Schweitzer: 15%
John Hickenlooper: 6%
Undecided: 8%

Missouri:
Mark Warner: 40%
Andrew Cuomo: 28%
Brian Schwetizer: 16%
John Hickenlooper: 5%
Undecided: 11%

Georgia:
Mark Warner: 42%
Andrew Cuomo: 32%
Brian Schweitzer: 9%
John Hickenlooper: 8%
Undecided: 9%

Illinois:
Mark Warner: 30%
Andrew Cuomo: 30%
Brian Schweitzer: 21%
John Hickenlooper: 11%
Undecided: 8%

Brian Schweitzer States:

Minnesota:
Brian Schweitzer: 48%
John Hickenlooper: 25%
Andrew Cuomo: 12%
Mark Warner: 4%
Undecided: 11%

North Dakota:
Brian Schweitzer: 43%
John Hickenlooper: 35%
Andrew Cuomo: 5%
Mark Warner: 5%
Undecided: 12%

Alaska:
Brian Schweitzer: 40%
John Hickenlooper: 30%
Andrew Cuomo: 15%
Mark Warner: 7%
Undecided: 8%

Idaho:
Brian Schweitzer: 31%
Andrew Cuomo: 30%
John Hickenlooper: 29%
Undecided: 10%

John Hickenlooper States:


Colorado:
John Hickenlooper: 60%
Brian Schweitzer: 25%
Andrew Cuomo: 3%
Mark Warner: 2%
Undecided: 10%

New Mexico:
John Hickenlooper: 44%
Brian Schweitzer: 28%
Mark Warner: 12%
Andrew Cuomo: 7%
Undecided: 9%

Arizona:
John Hickenlooper: 38%
Brian Schweitzer: 28%
Mark Warner: 16%
Andrew Cuomo: 10%
Undecided: 8%

Utah:
John Hickenlooper: 29%
Andrew Cuomo: 26%
Brian Schweitzer: 20%
Mark Warner: 15%
Undecided: 10%

Kansas:
John Hickenlooper: 30%
Brian Schweitzer: 28%
Mark Warner: 15%
Andrew Cuomo: 15%
Undecided: 12%

Super Tuesday Night, Part 1:

()

"It's that time of the year... Super Tuesday is here! We have the projecteed results from a couple of states, while other states are just looking as unclear as the polls looked before we checked them out, so first the clear states: New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New Jersey all head to Andrew Cuomo by varying large margins. Not a surprise: New England has always been his strong point, especially since he can point to himself as the liberal on social issues in a field full of moderates. Toss-ups right now are Delaware, where Warner currently has the lead, but that lead has been shrinking since the night began, and Georgia surprisingly, where Cuomo has been rallying support from African American voters. While polls in Georgia had significantly showed a Warner win there, they always did show a possibility of a Cuomo swipe, and I guess that's whats happening at the moment." - Joe Scarborough

()

New York:
Andrew Cuomo: 79.59%
Brian Schweitzer: 12.22%
Mark Warner: 5.32%
John Hickenlooper: 2.87%

Massachusetts:
Andrew Cuomo: 58.34%
Brian Schweitzer: 30.11%
John Hickenlooper: 5.85%
Mark Warner: 5.70%

Connnecticut:
Andrew Cuomo: 55.85%
Brian Schweitzer: 23.48%
Mark Warner: 14.23%
John Hickenlooper: 6.44%

New Jersey:
Andrew Cuomo: 49.95%
Mark Warner: 28.23%
Brian Schweitzer: 16.82%
John Hickenlooper: 5.00%

Toss-Ups for Now!
Delaware:
Mark Warner: 35.45%
Andrew Cuomo: 35.21%
Brian Schweitzer: 21.21%
John Hickenlooper: 8.13%

Georgia:
Mark Warner: 42.02%
Andrew Cuomo: 41.92%
Brian Schweitzzer: 11.04%
John Hickenlooer: 5.02%

()

Super Tuesday Delegates (So Far):
Andrew Cuomo: 394
Brian Schweitzer: 57
Mark Warner: 30
John Hickenlooper: 0

"If these results are anything to go by for the rest of the night, then they show a front-runner who will not be backing down in anyway. He leads the closest person in this race today by over THREE HUNDRED DELEGATES, which is a very hard mountain to climb. Cuomo is very formidable in this race at the moment, putting a place that Mark Warner thought was fairly safe in jeopardy. Mark Warner seemed to take the Mitt Romney approach by coming with his private sector experience, and Andrew Cuomo, due to his strong governance of New York, is appealing to African Americans in the state, and that seems to be having a massive impact, which we might see in other southern states where we thought that Warner was massively ahead" - Chuck Todd

Super Tuesday, Part 2

()

"We're back, as more polls have closed, more results have opened up: we have some Warner wins, some Schweitzer wins, and, inspite of the polling from the state, some Cuomo wins. First, Warner plucks off Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennesse, and Alabama, all by varying margins, but generally big ones, though Alabama and Tennesse are a lot closer than any pundit could have predicted. Missouri, expected to fall into Warner's column, goes undecided tonight, as Cuomo has been gaining in the state since the night began, with Warner still holding the lead. In Schweitzer's land, to the surprise of no one, the Caucus of Minnesota goes to him. Finally, in spite of polling favorable to Warner, due to a large turn-out in Cook County, Andrew Cuomo gets a narrow but solid margin, enough for us to call the state for him! Oh, and we can call Delaware for Governor Cuomo!" - Brit Hume

()

Oklahoma:
Mark Warner: 52.82%
Andrew Cuomo: 19.85%
Brian Schweitzer: 18.95%
John Hickenlooper: 8.38%

Arkansas:
Mark Warner: 53.38%
Andrew Cuomo: 23.58%
Brian Schweitzer: 12.25%
John Hickenlooper: 10.79%

Tennessee:
Mark Warner: 47.37%
Andrew Cuomo: 37.37%
Brian Schweitzer: 11.28%
John Hickenlooper: 3.98%

Alabama:
Mark Warner: 44.84%
Andrew Cuomo: 35.35%
Brian Schweitzer: 15.00%
John Hickenlooper: 4.81%

()

Minnesota:
Brian Schweitzer: 52.82%
John Hickenlooper: 30.21%
Andrew Cuomo: 11.11%
Mark Warner: 5.86%

()

Illinois:
Andrew Cuomo: 46.34%
Mark Warner: 39.98%
Brian Schweitzer: 10.01%
John Hickenlooper: 3.67%

Delaware:
Andrew Cuomo: 36.06%
Mark Warner: 35.25%
Brian Schweitzer: 22.23%
John Hickenlooper: 6.46%

Toss-up States Right Now!

Georgia:
Andrew Cuomo: 42.02%
Mark Warner: 42.02%
Brian Schweitzer: 10.52%
John Hickenlooper: 5.44%

Missouri:
Mark Warner: 36.35%
Andrew Cuomo: 35.01%
Brian Schweitzer: 18.98%
John Hickenlooper: 9.66%

()

Super Tuesday Delegates (So Far):
Andrew Cuomo: 552
Mark Warner: 215
Brian Schweitzer: 125
John Hickenlooper: 22

"Andrew Cuomo, even with a rush of Mark Warner wins, hold his lead of over THREE HUNDRED delegates over his opponents. After tonight, unless a major scandal involving all three candidates pops up, Hickenlooper is an unhappy camper. He needs to pack up and go at this point because he's finished with only 22 delegates. What little returns we are getting from states where he was supposed to be favorable in are looking worse as they come in, so ultimately his candidacy is finished, and its just a matter of time before Schweitzer, or even strong contender Warner, get knocked out of this race." - Brit Hume

Super Tuesday, Part 3:

()

"Some more results are coming in, and just when things looked bad for Hickenlooper, they just got worse. While he picked up three states (Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico), he lost two states he thought he was going to win tonight: Schweitzer swipes Kansas, and Cuomo swipes Utah. Brian Schweitzer also wins North Dakota, which isn't a huge shock considering its a caucus states, and he's been working up a Ron Paul-esqe strategy to swipe those kinds of states. Finally, we get results from both Missouri and Georgia, with Missouri heading towards Warner's direction and Georgia, shocking every pundit, goes to Cuomo!" - Wolf Blitzer

()

Colorado:
John Hickenlooper: 52.82%
Brian Schweitzer: 35.43%
Mark Warner: 9.34%
Andrew Cuomo: 2.41%

New Mexico:
John Hickenlooper: 44.82%
Brian Schweitzer: 27.34%
Mark Warner: 18.83%
Andrew Cuomo: 9.01%

Arizona:
John Hickenlooper: 38.21%
Brian Schweitzer: 25.45%
Mark Warner: 22.82%
Andrew Cuomo: 13.52%

()

North Dakota:
Brian Schweitzer: 49.24%
John Hickenlooper: 22.21%
Andrew Cuomo: 15.58%
Mark Warner: 12.97%

Kansas:
Brian Schweitzer: 30.45%
John Hickenlooper: 27.02%
Mark Warner: 26.73%
Andrew Cuomo: 15.80%

()

Utah:
Andrew Cuomo: 29.89%
John Hickenlooper: 27.32%
Brian Schweitzer: 26.21%
Mark Warner: 16.58%

Georgia:
Andrew Cuomo: 42.21%
Mark Warner: 41.98%
Brian Schweitzer: 10.23%
John Hickenlooper: 5.58%

()

Missouri:
Mark Warner: 36.65%
Andrew Cuomo: 35.12%
Brian Schweitzer: 18.52%
John Hickenlooper: 9.71%

()

Super Tuesday Delegates (So Far):
Andrew Cuomo: 642
Mark Warner: 316
Brian Schweitzer: 203
John Hickenlooper: 120

"While losing two of the states he was expected to pick off, there are rumors that Hickenlooper is planning his withdraw speech ALREADY, and the Idaho primary hasn't even been finished counting yet. It's certainly no surprise, before Super Tuesday, he was in last place, and after Super Tuesday that's exactly where it seems he will end up: far away from the nomination. Dropping the serious race down to three contenders, whom Governor Cuomo will go after with a fervor." - John King

Finally Over, Super Tuesday

()

"Cuomo's big night ends with a bang: California goes to him by double digits, and he takes Idaho by draining points from a sinking Hickenlooper. Alaska goes to Schweitzer by a large margin, but it doesn't carry him much, because its Alaska."

()

California:
Andrew Cuomo: 42.25%
Mark Warner: 28.43%
Brian Schweitzer: 18.35%
John Hickenlooper: 10.96%

Idaho:
Andrew Cuomo: 38.45%
Brian Schweitzer: 34.82%
John Hickenlooper: 25.43%
Mark Warner: 1.30%

()

Alaska:
Brian Schweitzer: 41.81%
Andrew Cuomo: 31.82%
John Hickenlooper: 16.21%
Mark Warner: 9.16%

()

Super Tuesday Delegates:
Andrew Cuomo: 850
Mark Warner: 421
Brian Schweitzer: 284
John Hickenlooper: 127

Andrew Cuomo wins Super Tuesday!

()

"It looks like the people chose us, as we march our way towards the nomination!"

()

Overall Delegates:
Andrew Cuomo: 1009
Mark Warner:  558
Brian Schweitzer: 392
John Hickenlooper: 174

John Hickenlooper drops out, endorses Governor Cuomo

()

"Before this campaign, I didn't even think of myself as Presidential material. I wanted to see if the people would even consider me, and for a while they did. However, I've made it to the big leagues, and it turns out I'm not quite ready. There for I will not be continuing my campaign for the presidency, and will endorse Governor Andrew Cuomo, the very qualified Governor of New York, for President of the United States."

"After Super Tuesday, reality gets clearer: Andrew Cuomo is the nominee. The only state that is out of the margin of error where Cuomo is losing is Nebraska, which is very much in Schweitzer territory and even THAT is in the single digits. Even Warner's home of Virginia, a state where Warner's approval is in the high 50s and sometimes even the 60s with everyone in the state, he is within a four point margin of error of LOSING the state." - Chris Matthews

National Polls:
Andrew Cuomo: 50%
Mark Warner: 28%
Brian Schweitzer: 17%
Undecided: 5%

Louisana:
Andrew Cuomo: 42%
Mark Warner: 40%
Brian Schweitzer: 10%
Undecided: 8%

Nebraska:
Brian Schweitzer: 43%
Andrew Cuomo: 38%
Mark Warner: 9%
Undecided: 10%

Washington:
Andrew Cuomo: 50%
Brian Schweitzer: 33%
Mark Warner: 6%
Undecided: 11%

Maine:
Andrew Cuomo: 60%
Brian Schweitzer: 25%
Mark Warner: 5%
Undecided: 10%

D.C:
Andrew Cuomo: 94%
Undecided: 6%

Maryland:
Andrew Cuomo: 55%
Mark Warner: 26%
Brian Schweitzer: 11%
Undecided: 8%

Virginia:
Mark Warner: 45%
Andrew Cuomo: 41%
Brian Schweitzer: 9%
Undecided: 5%

National Poll w/ Cuomo:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
Andrew Cuomo: 42%
Undecided: 8%

National Poll w/Warner:
Jon Huntsman: 52%
Mark Warner: 39%
Undecided: 9%

National Poll w/Schweitzer:
Jon Huntsman: 50%
Brian Schweitzer: 36%
Undecided: 14%

Jon Huntsman Approval Rating:
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 35%
Not Sure: 7%

Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating:
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 44%
Not Sure: 13%

Mark Warner Approval Rating:
Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 40%
Not Sure: 25%

Brian Schweitzer Approval Rating:
Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 28%
Not Sure: 38%

A Field Empties Rather Quickly After A Couple of Days

Day One:

Andrew Cuomo is continuing his winning streak, sweeping all three primaries!

()

Louisana:
Andrew Cuomo: 45.34%
Mark Warner: 42.82%
Brian Schweitzer: 11.84%

Washington:
Andrew Cuomo: 52.82%
Brian Schweitzer: 34.85%
Mark Warner: 12.33%

Nebraska:
Andrew Cuomo: 42.84%
Brian Schweitzer: 42.23%
Mark Warner: 14.93%

Overall Delegates:
Andrew Cuomo: 1106
Mark Warner: 582
Brian Schweitzer: 429
Unallocated: 174

"Andrew Cuomo keeps making his nomination more and more inevitable, but his oponents still won't let up..."

National Poll:
Andrew Cuomo: 57%
Mark Warner: 23%
Brian Schweitzer: 16%
Undecided: 4%

Viriginia:
Andrew Cuomo: 42%
Mark Warner: 41%
Brian Schweitzer: 12%
Undecided: 5%


Wisconsin:
Brian Schweitzer: 45%
Andrew Cuomo: 44%
Mark Warner: 6%
Undecided: 5%

Day 2:

Cuomo sweeps Maine in the upper 60s!

Maine:
Andrew Cuomo: 65.43%
Brian Schweitzer: 29.45%
Mark Warner: 5.12%


Brian Schweitzer quickly re-evaluates campaign, and decides to put it all down on the line in Wisconsin, where he leads by one point in one recent poll!

()

Day 4: Triplets Again

Andrew Cuomo sweeps three primaries again, Warner withdraws and endorses Cuomo after a devastating loss in his home state.

D.C.:
Andrew Cuomo: 96.84%
Brian Schweitzer: 2.16%
Mark Warner: 1.00%

Maryland:
Andrew Cuomo: 55.85%
Mark Warner: 30.84%
Brian Schweitzer: 13.31%

Virginia:
Andrew Cuomo: 45.43%
Mark Warner: 44.82%
Brian Schweitzer: 9.75%

Overall Delegates:
Andrew Cuomo: 1223
Mark Warner: 640
Brian Schweitzer: 436
Unallocated: 174

()

"The people have spoken, so I will now be shutting down my campaign and endorsing the nominee, who is a strong leader and will bring this country forward even more!

National Poll:
Andrew Cuomo: 70%
Brian Schweitzer: 25%
Undecided: 5%

Wisconsin:
Andrew Cuomo: 54%
Brian Schweitzer: 43%
Undecided: 3%

Day 11: The Final Day

Cuomo sweeps again, taking Hawaii by a landslide, and beating Schweitzer in Wisconsin, causing him to withdraw from the ballot from every state but his home!

Hawaii:
Andrew Cuomo: 84.22%
Brian Schweitzer: 15.78%

Wisconsin:
Andrew Cuomo: 53.84%
Brian Schweitzer: 46.16%

Overall Delegates:
Andrew Cuomo: 1280
Brian Schweitzer: 473
Unallocated: 814

()

"I am ready to withdraw my campaign. However, I will remain my states favorite son, so I will withdraw from the ballot from the rest of the nation EXCEPT for my home of Montana, because I love it so dearly. I will, however, endorse the nominee, who, like me, has executive experience that our country needs."

()

Andrew Cuomo is the Democratic Nominee!

()

National Polls:
Jon Huntsman: 52%
Andrew Cuomo: 42%
Undecided: 6%

Difficulty as the Nominee: Starting Rough

President Huntsman Approval: 58%
National Debt: $12 Trillion
Unemployment: 4.4%

National Polls:
Jon Huntsman: 52%
Andrew Cuomo: 40%
Undecided: 8%

National Polls w/ Third Parties:
Jon Huntsman (R): 49%
Andrew Cuomo (D): 38%
Allen West (C): 5%
Rocky Anderson (J): 2%
Jill Stein (G): ~0%
Undecided: 6%

()

()

()

"This is going to be a tough race for Cuomo to win. Not only does he lose, albeit closely, when the swing states are all toss-ups, but when it comes down to raw numbers, Cuomo barely crosses 200. The map is seriously on the side of the President, who polls very strongly in states where he isn't generally favorable. However, Cuomo does flip some states back to the democratic corner right away due to his appeal with New Englanders, which means he picks New Jersey and Connecticut up already, both states that Obama lost. What holds in the balance is whether or not Governor Cuomo can overcome the strong standard of this adminstration." - Chris Matthews

Possible Vice Presidential Choices:
Mark Warner, Senator of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer, Former Governor of Montana
Cory Booker, Senator of New Jersey
Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida
Deval Patrick, Former Governor of Massachussets
Amy Klobachar, Senator of Minnesota
Mark Udall, Senator of Colorado
Tom Udall, Senator of New Mexico
Kay Hagan, Senator of North Carolina

Andrew Cuomo picks Amy Klobuchar for VP!

()

()

"I picked someone who differs from my ideas to some extent, but to another agrees with the way we have to about things. Someone with different experience, but an experience, nevertheless, that would help us govern efficiently and effectively. Therefore, I have selected Amy Klobuchar, the Senator from Minnesota, as my running mate!" - Andrew Cuomo

"Thank you Andrew, and I am absolutely honored by the privileged to run with you. We may have some differences, but our mission is clear: we have to change America. President Huntsman may have gone in the right direction on a few issues, but that's not nearly enough. We can't merely be pointing towards a good place, we have to make it there, and that Cuomo/Klobuchar represents! - Amy Klobuchar

"This is a shocking pick. Many were expecting Mark Warner, thinking that he shared the experiences of Cuomo while also holding a different set of powers and already had a set base in order to run down Cuomo's margins in the south. Others were thinking Schweitzer would really help in Mountain states, but not necessarily enough to help Cuomo win them. With the pick of Klobuchar, the toss-up of Minnesota now goes Democratic again, no chance for President Huntsman to make his mark. Also the polling Wisconsin is effected. From the looks of it so far, this is a smart pick, and while it doesn't put the President in jeopardy yet, the polling numbers are looking more and more favorable to the Democratic ticket everyday." - Chris Matthews

National Polls w/o 3rd:
Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul: 50%
Andrew Cuomo/Amy Klobuchar: 44%
Undecided: 6%

National Polls w/ 3rd:
Jon Huntsman/Rand Paul (R): 46%
Andrew Cuomo/Amy Klobuchar (D): 42%
Allen West/Trent Franks (C): 5%
Rocky Anderson/Keith Ellison (J): 3%
Undecided: 4%

()

()

()

"And so the campaign trail begins again... doesn't seem like it'll be as rough as last time. It seems as if my opponents want a challenge, well, as the saying goes, bring it on! - President Jon Huntsman, in the state of Michigan, a critical state for his re-election.

Awesome stuff man

Unemployment dips below 4% for the first time since the sixties before the Conventions!

Unemployment rate: 3.9%
National Debt: 11.95 Trillion
Budget Surplus: $950 Billion

()

"Look, we just did something that no president has done since Lyndon Baines Johnson has done: We have unemployment below 4%. Now, don't pin that on my expertise, as much as i'd like to take credit. Credit, instead, the businesses. This is proof of how free markets change things for regular Americans." - President Huntsman

()

"We didn't do it, American innovation did it! But as President Huntsman said, it was the free market that made it happen! Do you want to go back to policies that, linger and hinder the free market? That's Bushonomics and Obamanomics and nobody wants to go back to those dark days!

"Something devastating for the democrats came out today: the jobs reports. It continues to show a very strong trend in the economy, which is helping to turn around the National Debt, and we've had a budget surplus for three years straight. Nobody said it was going to get easy to run against President Huntsman, but it just got a lot harder, with Cuomo's numbers dropping rapidly. That and Cuomo's personal unlikability among all voters is causing damage to his competent leader angle, flailing much in the way of Michael Dukakis." - Chris Matthews

National Polls w/o 3rd Parties:
President Jon Huntsman: 55%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 38%
Undecided: 7%

National Polls w/ 3rd Parties:
President Jon Huntsman: 53%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 35%
Former Mayor Rocky Anderson: 4%
Former Congressman Allen West: 3%
Undecided: 5%

Job Approval:
Jon Huntsman: 62/35/3
Rand Paul: 54/44/2

Favorables:
Andrew Cuomo: 38/51/11
Amy Klobuchar: 42/28/30
Allen West: 5/55/40
Rocky Anderson: 8/5/87

"There are also some odd reports out. There are reports of Rocky Anderson making a strong campaign effort in one state. He is making his one stand in the state of Vermont, where his campaign his heavily stationed. He campaigns around the nation, but in that one state, he is making serious headway. Not only that, but he is also making actual headway in the state. In the last poll in Vermont, Rocky Anderson was in third... with 20% of the vote. The endorsement of Bernie Sanders and the huge dislike among liberals of Andrew Cuomo is starting to seep in in a big way in the state, in what could turn out to be a stronger than expected run for Mr. Anderson." - Rachel Maddow

Vermont:
Andrew Cuomo: 38%
Jon Huntsman: 34%
Rocky Anderson: 20%
Undecided: 8%

()

()

Go, Rocky, go!!!

Democratic National Convention


Keynote Speaker Cory Booker, Senator from New Jersey
()

"This president does not understand some of the issues that are going on in America: He has repealed the health care law that would've helped so many, he's fought unions around the nation, and he standing silent as the far fringes of the GOP has come to reap their ugly heads and violate womens rights. We as a nation will not stand for it anymore. The Andrew Cuomo I know is a fighter, a leader, a Commander in Chief. Someone who doesn't idly stand by and let things happen, like President Huntsman has on a wide array of issues. His policies hurt the American family in many ways and we won't allow four more years of it!"

Brian Schweitzer, Former Governor of Montana and Democratic Nominee for Special Senate Election in Montana after Max Baucus' retirement.

()

"President Huntsmans an honorable man, but he doesn't stand up. He doesn't stand up to the big bankers, he doesn't stand up for universal health care, and he doesn't stand up for you. Why should you make the effort, then, to stand up for him by voting for him? You shouldn't.

Gavin Newsom, Democratic Nominee for Senator of California

()

"My old friend Jerry Brown once said 'Inaction may be the best form of Action'. Well, we all make mistakes, right? Well, Apparently not, because that's what President Huntsman believes. He believes if we just we leave everything alone, it will be okay. Well, let me tell you something entirely different: how about we make the effort, how about we change the country. Huntsman has been taking us back, back to days where we could crash at any moment. Well, we don't want those days. We want today! We want tomorrow! We want the future!"

"The Democrats, once again, have a very strong convention, hammering Huntsman lack of action. The question is, will it work, in spite of the success the administration has seen over the past couple of years? Only time will tell." - Chris Matthews

National Poll w/o Third Parties:
Jon Huntsman: 49%
Andrew Cuomo: 45%
Undecided: 6%

National Poll w/ Third Parties:
Jon Huntsman: 48%
Andrew Cuomo: 41%
Rocky Anderson: 5%
Allen West: 2%
Undecided: 4%

Vermont:
Jon Huntsman: 33%
Rocky Anderson: 28%
Andrew Cuomo: 27%
Undecided: 12%

Early 2020 Presidential Polling Democrats:
Senator Cory Booker: 24%
Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom: 20%
Former Governor Brian Schweitzer: 11%
Senator Mark Begich: 8%
Governor Peter Schumlin: 5%
Others: 5%
Undecided: 27%

Early 2020 Presidential Polling Republicans:
Vice President Rand Paul: 20%
Governor Paul Ryan: 19%
Senator Ted Cruz: 10%
Senator Jeff Flake: 5%
Governor Rob McKenna: 3%
Governor Mike Pence: 2%
Senator Marco Rubio: 1%
Others: 5%
Undecided: 35%

1996 anyone?

haha that does seem to be the trend of this election. The republicans get their Clinton I guess.

Rocky Anderson included in the debates!

()

"Two-time Justice Party Candidate and current front-runner in the state of Vermont and strong place holder in Hawaii has now made his strongest stand yet: He has made it to the debates. With the endorsement of Bernie Sanders, Buddy Roemer, John Anderson, and Elizabeth Warren, he has pushed to the favor of many liberal democrats and has no garnered as much as 5% in the polls, which he has argued is enough considering Santorum got into the debates with as low support as 4%. While the debate committee initially refused, they kept pushing and eventually the Justice Party nominee has made it. However, the flailing campaign of Constitution Party Nominee Allen West, who might be the most dis-liked person in the campaign including Andrew Cuomo, has proven itself unable to get into the debates, and has now dropped as low as 1% in the polls, leading many to speculate that he won't be able to even get that much as election time comes." - Chris Matthews

National Polls :
Jon Huntsman: 50%
Andrew Cuomo: 41%
Rocky Anderson: 5%
Undecided: 4%

Vermont:
Rocky Anderson: 33%
Jon Huntsman: 32%
Andrew Cuomo: 25%
Undecided: 10%

Hawaii:
Jon Huntsman: 35%
Andrew Cuomo: 32%
Rocky Anderson: 19%
Undecided: 14%

Colorado:
Jon Huntsman: 48%
Andrew Cuomo: 35%
Rocky Anderson: 10%
Undecided: 7%

Utah:
Jon Huntsman: 80%
Rocky Anderson: 9%
Andrew Cuomo: 4%
Undecided: 7%

Keep it up!! Go Huntsman!!!

Election Day

"The debates were fairly stagnant, albeit somewhat helpful to Governor Cuomo and his likability, but otherwise, the lead for Huntsman, like most of the election, was too much for him to overcome. Rocky Anderson did not deliver enough of a knock out punch to change what was going for him before, so while he won Vermont and got over 20% in Hawaii and over 30% in D.C., he was stuck everywhere else, getting in the 10%'s in Colorado, Utah (all in the Salt Lake City Area), Rhode Island, California, and Alaska. Everywhere else he got low single digits. Nevertheless, its a very strong third party run, and we might some Justice Party movement in the future." - Wolf Blitzer

()

President Jon Huntsman/Vice President Rand Paul 50.21% -323 Electors
Governor Andrew Cuomo/Senator Amy Klobuchar 44.23% - 212 Electors
Former Mayor Rocky Anderson/Former Congressman Keith Ellison 4.53% - 3 Electors
Former Congressman Allen West/Former Congressman Steve King 0.51% - 0 Electors

"President Huntsman won more of the popular vote, but in a rare occurance, he won less of the electorals. This is the first time since Woodrow Wilson since this has happened. Now there is a reason for that: he came up against a candidate who opposed the ideas of the previous adminstration. Even though things are going well, we still live in a divided country, so it was obvious that Cuomo, should he run a decent campaign, would do better than the low low approval ratings Obama did when he ran."  - Wolf Blitzer

I know I haven't commented before but this is some really great stuff.

Weird seeing the new Justice Party overshadow the Green Party so quickly.

The issue of campaign fiance reform started growning, and with the nomination of Andrew Cuomo, it became rather clear rather quickly that the Democrats weren't going to work towards  that, and Rocky Anderson took full advantage. Plus, the Green Party completely disappeared during 2012, and their establishment kind of faded to the Justice Party, while the Constitution Party faded due to the nomination of Allen West.

2020 Election:

President Jon Huntsman

Highest Approval: 75% (Unemployment hit 3.5% in 2017)
Lowest Approval: 48% (Wall Street crashes, Unemployment goes up to 5% in 2019)

National Debt: $10.8 Trillion
Unemployment: 5.2%

Current Approval: 59%

Democratic Primary Challengers:
Senator of New Jersey Cory Booker: 24%
Senator of Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Senator of Alaska Mark Begich: 12%
Governor of Vermont Peter Schumlin: 10%
Senator of California Gavin Newsom: 6%
Senator of Colorado Mark Udall: 3%
Governor of Florida Charlie Crist: 2%
Senator of Hawaii Mazie Hirono: 2%
Congressman of Maryland Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 20%

Republican Primary Challengers:
Governor of Wisconsin Paul Ryan: 22%
Vice President Rand Paul: 20%
Senator of Arizona Jeff Flake: 13%
Former Governor of Washington Rob McKenna: 9%
Congressman of Georgia Herman Cain: 6%
Senator of Tennessee Bob Corker: 4%
Former Senator of South Carolina Jim Demint: 3%
Congressman of Alaska Don Young: 1%
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: 1%
Undecided: 21%

"The fields are both looking very similar: there is a lack of clarity in the field, but ultimately there are two front-runners in each case. For the democrats, it's Cory Booker vs. Elizabeth Warren. While Elizabeth Warren fumbled in the ball in her first campaign, liberals are happy to put her up again due to her rise as she swiped the Senate seat of John Kerry, as Massachusetts wasn't ready for two Republican senators.  Her position doesn't look as solid as Senator Bookers though: Mark Begich has been running a very retail campaign in Iowa, where the enthusiasm for him is very strong, while Governor Schumlin has a very strong home field advantage in New Hampshire. Although Newsom's stock has sunk a bit since the last time we looked at the polls, don't quite count him out as done yet: he's still a contender in big states. On the Republican side its mostly between Governor Ryan and Vice President Paul, where their differences are stark and many. Don't count out Jeff Flake, Rob Mckenna (whose New Hampshire operation is very strong), or Herman Cain, as a big turn in the race could change it for them. A shocking blow is Bob Corker: Corker was expected to be "next in line" kind of dark horse candidate, but he hasn't lead in any state, even his home state of Tennessee, where he trails Rand Paul and Herman Cain by ten points. It looks like the heat is turning on who is going to be the next President of the United States."

Sandoval In, Young Out

Ames Straw Poll:
Jim Demint: 30%
Jeff Flake: 18%
Herman Cain: 16%
Rand Paul: 9%
Paul Ryan: 8%
Don Young: 7%
Brian Sandoval: 6%
Bob Corker: 4%
Mitch McConnell: 1%
Rob McKenna: 1%

()

"The media pundits didn't see us coming, now did they? We will be making a huge effect on the election and moving forward!"

()

"We performed strongly, and we will continue to do so throughout the election."

()

"6% of the vote on a write-in? I guess that's a clear enough sign! I'm entering the Presidential Race for the Republican Nomination!"

()

"I will not continue my run for the presidency, as I see no path forward. Instead, I will be endorsing Governor Paul Ryan, because he has the plan and the experience to keep this country moving in the right direction."

Republican Primary Polling:
Vice President Rand Paul: 20%
Governor Paul Ryan: 20%
Senator Jeff Flake: 12%
Former Senator Jim Demint: 10%
Governor Rob McKenna: 7%
Former Governor Brian Sandoval: 6%
Congressman Herman Cain: 5%
Senator Bob Corker: 3%
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: 2%
Undecided: 15%

"Demint, from the last poll, has gained a total of seven points, so he is surging on a massive level. Rand Paul, whose father Ron Paul was a master of straw polls, did rather poorly, but expectantly since he didn't through any resources into the state. Brian Sandoval makes a very strong entrance into the polls at 6%, and taking out Don Young, who had the highest unfavorables of any candidate in the race.  He certainly cuts into Rob McKenna's market a bit, but how will his run effect in the long-run." - Chris Wallace

Amy Klobuchar enters the race!

()

Democratic Primary Polling:
Senator Cory Booker: 22%
Senator Amy Klobuchar: 15%
Senator Mark Begich: 13%
Senator Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Governor Peter Schumlin: 9%
Senator Gavin Newsom: 5%
Governor Charlie Crist: 4%
Senator Mark Udall: 2%
Senator Mazie Hirono: 1%
Congressman Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 18%

"This news has shifted the Democratic race in a dramatic way. Recently, due to controversies, Elizabeth Warren has fallen back, and the Democratic Party had been looking for the non-Booker candidate. They have now found that candidate in Former Vice Presidential candidate and Senator from Minnesota Amy Klobuchar, who is a safe bet compared to the Mark Begich, who favors free market solutions in terms of oil and a list of other issues, Peter Schumlin, who just isn't known anywhere, or Gavin Newsom, who has led a very uninspiring campaign and isn't trusted well by the Democrats." - Chris Wallace

This is awesome.  Just out of curiosity, was Lingle elected in 2012?  What's she up to?

Front-runner Demint!

()

"Wow, this is shocking so far. We've only had a couple of weeks, and I'm already taking the former Vice President down to third place. This has been quite an astounding couple of weeks for me."

National Poll:
Jim Demint: 22%
Paul Ryan: 16%
Rand Paul: 14%
Jeff Flake: 9%
Brian Sandoval: 8%
Rob McKenna: 6%
Herman Cain: 6%
Bob Corker: 4%
Mitch McConnell: 1%
Undecided: 14%

Iowa Polls:
Jim Demint: 32%
Jeff Flake: 17%
Paul Ryan: 11%
Rand Paul: 11%
Herman Cain: 7%
Brian Sandoval: 3%
Bob Corker: 3%
Rob McKenna: 3%
Mitch McConnell: ~0%
Undecided: 13%

New Hampshire:
Rand Paul: 20%
Brian Sandoval: 17%
Rob McKenna: 15%
Jim Demint: 13%
Paul Ryan: 11%
Jeff Flake: 3%
Bob Corker: 2%
Herman Cain: 2%
Mitch McConnell: 1%
Undecided: 16%

Now this means...

()

"Now of course I like Jim Demint. We were friends back when I was in the Senate. But people tend to think I'm an extremist, and I think HE'S too far to the right for my tastes: He wants to go BACK and try to fix problems in the Middle East. We're done with that, let's focus on our home instead of looking abroad."

()

"Now, if you're talking about conservative, you're definitely talking about Jim Demint. What are other things related to Jim Demint? Well, age, he turns 70 the year he gets inaguarted, he's party affiliated, meaning he will just do what the party tells him, instead of informing the ideas of the party like Ronald Reagan di. Now I wouldn't say I'm young, but I'm not govern-mentally defined as being able to retire, and I tell it how it is, even if my party doesn't like me saying it that way."

()

"Demint doesn't have the right experience to become President. I have worked in the private sector, the executive branch, and the legislative branch of the greatest Government the world has ever known. I am qualified to continue this administrations accomplishments and then some. He was just a three term congressman and a two-term Senator, He's fine, but he isn't nearly read to become the President of the United States."

Lingle lost in 2012, due to the fact Hawaii, inspite of electing her as the governor over Hirono, decided not to send her to Washington.

As the Warren Campaign continues crumbles, Peter Shumlin hops in to take their place.

()

National Polls:
Cory Booker: 21%
Peter Shumin: 18%
Amy Klobuchar: 13%
Mark Begich: 13%
Gavin Newsom: 7%
Charlie Crist: 5%
Elizabeth Warren: 4%
Mark Udall: 3%
Mazie Hirono: 2%
Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 13%

Iowa:
Cory Booker: 24%
Mark Begich: 20%
Peter Shumlin: 12%
Amy Klobuchar: 10%
Mark Udall: 6%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Gavin Newsom: 4%
Charlie Crist: 3%
Mazie Hirono: 3%
Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 11%

New Hampshire:
Peter Shumlin: 30%
Cory Booker: 18%
Amy Klobuchar: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Mark Begich: 10%
Mazie Hirono: 3%
Gavin Newsom: 3%
Mark Udall: 1%
Charlie Crist: 1%
Steny Hoyer: ~0%
Undecided: 14%

Iowa Caucus Approaching...

()

"I am withdrawing from the Presidential race, as once again, it seems that there is no path towards my victory. I will be endorsing Governor Shumlin, as he is a great progressive voice for the country!"

()

"Unfortunately, I will not be going forward in this campaign. However, my endorsement is for a true conservative: Former Senator Jim Demint. He is going to put our country back on the right path."

National Polls the Day of the Caucus (Republicans):
Rand Paul: 19%
Jim Demint: 16%
Paul Ryan: 16%
Jeff Flake: 13%
Brian Sandoval: 12%
Rob McKenna: 8%
Bob Corker: 4%
Mitch McConnell: 2%
Undecided: 10%

National Polls the Day of the Caucus (Democrats):
Peter Shumlin: 24%
Cory Booker: 22%
Mark Begich: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 14%
Charlie Crist: 6%
Gavin Newsom: 4%
Mazie Hirono: 3%
Steny Hoyer: 2%
Undecided: 10%

Meanwhile, in Iowa

Iowa, 5% of the Precincts Reporting:

Republicans:
Jim Demint: 22.54%
Jeff Flake: 21.94%
Rand Paul: 20.22%
Brian Sandoval: 14.32%
Paul Ryan: 11.21%
Rob McKenna: 4.23%
Bob Corker: 2.84%
Mitch McConnell: 2.70%

Democrats:
Mark Begich: 28.43%
Peter Shumlin: 26.34%
Cory Booker: 19.94%
Amy Klobuchar: 12.84%
Charlie Crist: 10.74%
Gavin Newsom: 6.77%
Mazie Hirono: 2.84%
Steny Hoyer: 0.84%

"It's a big shock for Cory Booker, the front-runner in the race for god knows how long, is now called for third place in the race. This can't be a good place for him to be on the Democratic side. That being said, polling in most other states, particularly in the states of Michigan and South Carolina, are fairly favorable to him, but watch for a change in that perhaps. Amy Klobuchar also bombs in the state, getting fourth and barely beating out Charlie Crist, a former Republican, who surprises everyone with a fifth place showing much higher than anyone expected." - Chris Matthews

"Meanwhile, on the republican side, the three way tie was expected. Jim Demint, who became the front-runner for a while, dropped significantly when his stature as the conservative candidate became an issue and his debate skills remained questionable throughout the campaign. They never hit Perry levels though, so he remained viable. Flake always had some kind of weird strength in Iowa, and Rand Paul inheriting his fathers legacy in the state, so we get a three way fight between these candidates. Paul Ryan certainly wanted to do better than fifth, I assure you, and Moderate Brian Sandoval surprising everyone with a strong fourth place with over fourteen percent of the vote. Even though he wasn't trying, Washington Governor Rob McKenna must be disappointed by that sixth place showing." - Rachel Maddow

Shumlin shouldbe President someday.

Mark Begich wins the Iowa Caucus, Shumlin still takes a strong second place in the Democratic Field

()


Democrat Iowa Caucus:
Mark Begich: 28.21%
Peter Shumlin: 24.43%
Cory Booker: 18.84%
Amy Klobuchar: 11.02%
Charlie Crist: 10.56%
Gavin Newsom: 4.33%
Mazie Hirono: 1.98%
Steny Hoyer: 0.63%

()

Delegates:
Mark Begich: 18
Peter Shumlin: 15
Cory Booker: 12


Rand Paul wins the Iowa Caucus, Flake and Demint are within .01% of eachother

()

Republican Iowa Caucus:
Rand Paul: 22.01%
Jeff Flake: 20.75%
Jim Demint: 20.74%
Brian Sandoval: 15.02%
Paul Ryan: 10.53%
Rob McKenna: 5.08%
Bob Corker: 3.84%
Mitch McConnell: 2.03%

()

Rand Paul: 11
Jeff Flake: 10
Jim Demint: 9
Brian Sandoval: 7

Mazie Hirono and Bob Corker drop out!

()

"I will not be continuing my quest for the Presidency of the United States, and will be endorsing Jim Demint for President."

()

"I will endorse Peter Shumlin for President."

Republicans:

National Polls:
Rand Paul: 22%
Jim Demint: 15%
Jeff Flake: 15%
Paul Ryan: 15%
Brian Sandoval: 15%
Rob McKenna: 8%
Mitch McConnell: 2%
Undecided: 8%

New Hampshire:
Rand Paul: 26%
Brian Sandoval: 25%
Rob McKenna: 15%
Paul Ryan: 10%
Jeff Flake: 10%
Jim Demint: 5%
Mitch McConnell: 3%
Undecided: 6%

South Carolina:
Jim Demint: 40%
Rand Paul: 24%
Jeff Flake: 16%
Mitch McConnell: 6%
Paul Ryan: 4%
Brian Sandoval: 2%
Rob McKenna: 1%
Undecided: 7%

Florida:
Brian Sandoval: 33%
Rand Paul: 23%
Rob McKenna: 14%
Jim DeMint: 12%
Jeff Flake: 8%
Paul Ryan: 4%
Mitch McConnell:0%
Undecided: 6%


Democrat:
National Polls:
Peter Shumlin: 24%
Cory Booker: 18%
Mark Begich: 17%
Amy Klobuchar: 13%
Charlie Crist: 10%
Gavin Newsom: 9%
Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 8%

New Hampshire:
Peter Shumlin: 42%
Cory Booker: 17%
Gavin Newsom: 15%
Mark Begich: 8%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Charlie Crist: 5%
Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 6%

South Carolina:
Cory Booker: 30%
Gavin Newsom: 27%
Charlie Crist: 12%
Peter Shumlin: 10%
Mark Begich: 6%
Steny Hoyer: 5%
Amy Klobchar: 4%
Undecided: 6%

Florida:
Charlie Crist: 29%
Cory Booker: 25%
Gavin Newsom: 20%
Peter Shumlin: 8%
Mark Begich: 7%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 7%

Sandoval, Begich win Wyoming Caucuses!

()

Wyoming (Republicans):
Brian Sandoval: 38.53%
Rob McKenna: 35.35%
Mitch McConnell: 15.45%
Paul Ryan: 4.43%
Jim Demint: 3.11%
Rand Paul: 1.87%
Jeff Flake: 1.26%

()

Brian Sandoval: 12
Rand Paul: 11
Jeff Flake: 10
Jim Demint: 9
Rob McKenna: 5
Mitch McConnell: 2

()

Wyoming (Democrats)
Mark Begich: 34.45%
Amy Klobuchar: 32.32%
Gavin Newsom: 12.21%
Cory Booker: 10.32%
Steny Hoyer: 6.87%
Charlie Crist: 2.82%
Peter Shumlin: 1.01%

()

Delegates:
Mark Begich: 24
Peter Shumlin: 15
Cory Booker: 12
Amy Klobuchar: 6

"If it wasn't clear enough, it's time for Mitch McConnell to leave the Presidential race. While he may banter about the fact he got 3rd in Wyoming when no one was expecting him to, Wyoming has little relevance in the Presidential race, so it's time for him to leave. Same with Steny Hoyer." - David Gergen

"Even though its just Wyoming, what does this loss say to Rob McKenna and Amy Klobuchar, who have both been struggling and got close, but no cigar?" - Wolf Blitzer

"Well, their chances are little to none, and this certainly doesn't help them. McKenna just doesn't have a fundamental standing in the Republican Party that Sandoval doesn't already provide and then some. McKenna is just a generic, liberal state republican moderate, Sandoval is much more than that. And Klobuchar is from a losing presidential ticket, so while she is charismatic and humorous, that doesn't help her a bit, plus Mark Begich has been much more effective in terms of campaigning in fewer states. Both of these candidates might continue for a little longer, but they ultimately will not be able to after a couple more states due to a lack of serious funding." - David Gergen

New Hampshire Polling A Day Before the Caucus:

Republicans:
Rand Paul: 24%
Brian Sandoval: 20%
Rob McKenna: 20%
Jeff Flake: 12%
Paul Ryan: 10%
Jim Demint: 6%
Mitch McConnell: 3%
Undecided: 5%

Democrats:
Peter Shumlin: 39%
Mark Begich: 17%
Cory Booker: 17%
Gavin Newsom: 12%
Charlie Crist: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Steny Hoyer: 1%
Undecided: 5%

Unless Shumlin or Newsom get the Dem Nomination, because of the sorry batch of candidates I'd probably cross-over and vote Flake or Sandoval for President.

New Hampshire Primary

Rand Paul wins, Rob McKenna disappoints while Flake over-performs

()

New Hampshire:
Rand Paul: 27.42%
Brian Sandoval: 23.43%
Rob McKenna: 16.23%
Jeff Flake: 15.21%
Paul Ryan: 9.22%
Jim Demint: 5.44%
Mitch McConnell: 3.05%

()

Rand Paul: 16
Brian Sandoval: 15
Jeff Flake: 12
Jim Demint: 9
Rob McKenna: 7
Mitch McConnell: 2

Rob McKenna drops out, endorses Brian Sandoval, while Paul Ryan stakes everything on Michigan

()

"There is no future for my candidacy. But luckily, there is another candidate that we can rely on for a truly moderate voice to continue the accomplishments of this administration. And that candidate and Brian Sandoval. "

()

"Nobody said running for President was going to be easy. Certainly, I didn't think it would be. Therefor, I am staking my candidacy, and possibly my career, on the state of Michigan, where I can hope for a win there."

Michigan Polls:
Brian Sandoval: 34%
Rand Paul: 21%
Paul Ryan: 19%
Jeff Flake: 14%
Jim Demint: 5%
Mitch McConnell: 2%
Undecided: 5%

Nevada:
Brian Sandoval: 60%
Rand Paul: 9%
Jeff Flake: 9%
Mitch McConnell: 8%
Jim Demint: 4%
Paul Ryan: 4%
Undecided: 6%

()

Shumlin takes New Hampshire expectedly, Booker barely beats Begich for second.

New Hampshire:
Peter Shumlin: 40.21%
Cory Booker: 20.43%
Mark Begich: 19.98%
Gavin Newsom: 11.54%
Charlie Crist: 4.32%
Amy Klobuchar: 3.01%
Steny Hoyer: 0.51%

()

Delegates:
Mark Begich: 29
Peter Shumlin: 27
Cory Booker: 17
Amy Klobuchar: 6

Steny Hoyer and Amy Klobuchar drop out, endorsing Cory Booker and Peter Shumlin respectively

()

"Looks like I wasn't welcome in this race. I am endorsing Senator Booker, because he knows bi-partisanship and doesn't need on the job training."

()

"Well, I enjoyed the sport. Peter Shumlin is someone who will change America in the right way, so I am endorsing him for President."

Michigan:
Cory Booker: 34%
Gavin Newsom: 30%
Mark Begich: 15%
Charlie Crist: 9%
Peter Shumlin: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Nevada:
Gavin Newsom: 35%
Charlie Crist: 22%
Mark Begich: 22%
Cory Booker: 10%
Peter Shumlin: 5%
Undecied: 6%

Brian Sandoval wins Michigan and Nevada, 3rd Place in Michigan Paul Ryan drops, doesn't endorse

()


Michigan:
Brian Sandoval: 38.43%
Rand Paul: 20.42%
Paul Ryan: 19.22%
Jeff Flake: 15.21%
Jim Demint: 6.32%
Mitch McConnel: 0.40%

 
Nevada:
Brian Sandoval: 52.23%
Jeff Flake: 18.53%
Rand Paul: 14.23%
Mitch McConnell: 9.55%
Jim Demint: 4.16%
Paul Ryan: 1.30%

()

Delegates:
Brian Sandoval: 69
Rand Paul: 27
Jeff Flake: 27
Paul Ryan: 11
Jim Demint: 9
Rob McKenna: 7
Mitch McConnell: 2

National Polls:
Brian Sandoval: 30%
Rand Paul: 24%
Jim DeMint: 18%
Jeff Flake: 15%
Mitch McConnell: 2%
Undecided: 11%

South Carolina Polls:
Jim Demint: 40%
Rand Paul: 20%
Mitch McConnell: 12%
Jeff Flake: 12%
Brian Sandoval: 9%
Undecided: 7%

Florida:
Brian Sandoval: 34%
Rand Paul: 24%
Jim Demint: 17%
Jeff Flake: 16%
Mitch McConnell: 1%
Undecided: 8%


Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom wins in Nevada, Cory Booker wins in Michigan

()

Nevada:
Gavin Newsom: 36.43%
Mark Begich: 23.85%
Charlie Crist: 21.92%
Cory Booker: 10.84%
Peter Shumlin: 6.96%

()


Michigan:
Cory Booker: 36.43%
Gavin Newsom: 28.23%
Mark Begich: 18.64%
Charlie Crist: 9.94%
Peter Shumlin: 6.76%

()

Delegates:
Cory Booker: 73
Mark Begich: 64
Gavin Newsom: 57
Peter Shumlin: 27
Charlie Crist: 5
Amy Klobuchar: 6

National Polls:
Cory Booker: 28%
Peter Shumlin: 22%
Gavin Newsom: 20%
Mark Begich: 15%
Charlie Crist: 10%
Undecided: 5%

South Carolina:
Cory Booker: 30%
Gavin Newsom: 25%
Charlie Crist: 18%
Mark Begich: 12%
Peter Shumlin: 7%
Undecided: 8%

Florida:
Charlie Crist: 26%
Gavin Newsom: 25%
Cory Booker: 25%
Mark Begich: 10%
Peter Shumlin: 5%
Undecided: 9%

Jim Demint wins South Carolina by a clear margin, 3rd Place Mitch McConnell drops out

()

South Carolina:
Jim Demint: 40.21%
Rand Paul: 25.43%
Mitch McConnell: 14.43%
Jeff Flake: 11.94%
Brian Sandoval: 7.99%

Cory Booker wins the South Carolina Primary!

()

South Carolina:
Cory Booker: 32.43%
Gavin Newsom: 30.21%
Charlie Crist: 22.28%
Mark Begich: 9.21%
Peter Shumlin: 5.87%

Rand Paul, in the midsts of a brutal campaign, pulls an upset in Florida after trailing by as  much as double digits against Brian Sandoval

()

Florida:
Rand Paul: 33.84%
Brian Sandoval: 33.43%
Jim Demint: 20.45%
Jeff Flake: 12.28%

Delegates Pre-Super Tuesday (Republican):
Rand Paul: 133
Brian Sandoval: 69
Jeff Flake: 27
Jim Demint: 27
Unallocated: 20

()

Gavin Newsom pulls out with the victory in Florida, Charlie Crist withdraws from the race after losing his home state

Florida:
Gavin Newsom: 28.43%
Charlie Crist: 28.21%
Cory Booker: 25.43%
Mark Begich: 13.74%
Peter Shumlin: 4.19%

Delegates Pre-Super Tuesday:
Gavin Newsom: 157
Cory Booker: 141
Charlie Crist: 67
Mark Begich: 64
Peter Shumlin: 27
Unallocated: 6

()

Republican Super Tuesday Prediction Map

National Polls:
Rand Paul: 28%
Brian Sandoval: 25%
Jim Demint: 25%
Jeff Flake: 18%
Undecided: 4%

()

Democratic Super Tuesday Prediction Map

National Polls:
Cory Booker: 34%
Gavin Newsom: 23%
Peter Shumlin: 20%
Mark Begich: 18%
Undecided: 5%

()

Go Rand!

Former Senator Jim Demint drops out of the Presidential Race, endorses Rand Paul

()

"This race is a fight for the soul of America. Whether we want to continue to fight conservatively for individual liberty and prosperous economic futures, or shattered dreams and socialism. I will not stand to tear my party apart for the means of socialism. Therefore, I will be endorsing Rand Paul, because he represents this vision so clearly, and has fought so hard as the Vice President and, earlier on, as a senator, for conservative values. He will continue the great strides we've made during the Huntsman years."


"Many of Demints supporters are still upset over his dropping out, adding 30% to the undecided range, while 20% of his supporters going to Flake inspite of the endorsement, and about half heading towards Vice President Rand Paul. Not shockingly to anyone observant to the race, Sandoval gets none of Demints supporters, mainly because he's the most moderate Republican candidate for president since, well, John Huntsman. It's a fifteen point lead for the Vice President, but anything can still happen at this point." - Chris Matthews

Can we see some head-to-head matchup polling. I'm convinced that unless we run Shumlin or Newsom, Cory Booker will be the nominee and we'll lose.

Mark Begich drops out of the race, doesn't endorse

()

"I will not be making an endorsement tonight, but I acknowledge that this campaign is officially over. After my term finishes up in Congress, I will go be to private life, where I feel like I belong. Campaigning isn't for me, its making government work. I think that none of the three candidates that I was running against ever have truly understood the individual, so, while I won't betray my party by running in a third party, I will not abdicate my support to any of these three candidates, honorable men they may be.


"An unusual statement from Mark Begich, whose libertarian lean definitely made him much different from the other democratic candidates in the field. It's not unusual for him to not endorse in this way, many do, but it is unusual for him to absolutely quit politics in their withdraw speech. Nevertheless, most of his supporters abandon the race, becoming undecided, with most of the ones that do go going to Peter Shumlin, who is the most liberal candidate of this campaign. So far, he is further down in the polls and in delegates, but a lot of the map looks favorable to him, while Newsom, who gained huge from California being his home state, has a rather dry looking map, with a bare edge in Washington state and not much else. Booker, after some question of his frontrunner status, is on fire lately, and it looks like he might become the nominee if Shumlin and Newsom disappoint anywhere, but the possibility of a brokered convention is still in play." - Chris Matthews


"Head to head polling shows that Booker, who appeals to moderates and cool heads, leads all his Republican challengers, though Sandoval makes it within the margin of error. Still not many people know of Shumlin, so against his opponents, even though the margins are high, its mostly because the public is not that aware of him even today. Newsom would be a strong candidate against anyone but Sandoval, because Sandoval negates a lot of his western strength. Any way you slice it though, it could be a tight race for whoever comes out to be the nominee." - Wolf Blitzer

Damn Begich. He should have supported Shumlin...

I hope Shumlin wins, but it's almost impossible... If he doesn't gain some traction, I'll support Booker over Newsom :)

Flake announces he will continue the race with a win in Wisconsin!

()

"Wisconsin seems like the perfect place for a free thinker, and I think that the state is ready for the Flake campaign, as I feel the momentum in the state coming my way!"

Great! Paul will be easier to defeat than Sandoval.. But, considering you're a libertarian, he may win anyway :p.

Only one critic: I don't think Booker gets only 2.66% of the vote in DC considering he's an afroamerican ;)

Let's see who carries Ohio. I hope it's Shumlin, he has the big Mo.

Not necessarily...

I mean I am deeply libertarian, but it's all about narrative!

Also, on the D.C. critic, that's probably right, but I was going under the assumption that the most liberal candidate wins D.C. handidly, and since Newsom is kind of pro-business and Booker clearly has ties, that Shumlin would CLEARLY take D.C. by gigantic margins.

Booker 2020!

Brokered convention!! I hope Shumlin manages to get the nod, but it's unlikely, as Newsom/Begich delegates are probably closer to Booker in terms of ideology.

Awesome stuff!  Rand 2020!

Also, if Rand wins in 2020, is it possible Huntsman might be brought on board as a de facto (or even the official) Secretary of State?  Will he be to Paul what Clinton is to Obama ITTL (election-wise, etc)

Are you from OK? If you are, what's your opinion about Henry?

I am, and I thought Brad Henry was, generally, a strong governor who held to his centrist ideas. He was a bit to the right on fiscal issues, but he didn't just try to go socially conservative to get elected, noted by his veto of anti-abortion legislation that got over-turned TWICE.

Bill Clinton to Arkansas is Brad Henry to Oklahoma in my view.

Democratic National Convention

1st Ballot Delegate Count:
Overall Delegates:
Peter Shumlin: 2007
Cory Booker: 2006
Unallocated: 200

"On the first ballot, we don't even have a nominee still... However, it is a lot closer than we thought it was going to be. It seems that the DNC is now proposing a compromise candidate..."


Former Senator and head of the DNC Bill Nelson
()

"As a compromise candidate we would like to nominate the Democratic Governor of Texas, Julian Castro!"

()

The pick of Castro is originally well-received, however...

()

"Look, I'm proud Castro got to where he was, but why did he? Because an incompetent governor decided to stretch his reign to king-like time period. He won't win Texas for a second term, and he especially won't win America. We need a candidate who can win, that can bring change to America, and that's what I bring as a candidate."

()

"Both Mr. Booker and Mr. Castro represent stagnation in America. They aren't going to make much of a difference. I, however, will, and I have the experience that neither of these men have."

Second Ballot:
Peter Shumlin: 2152
Cory Booker: 1382
Julian Castro: 621
Unallocated: 58

"Shumlin is currently pushing his margin of victory and the number of delegates he has, while the addition of Castro innumerably hurts Booker. This is starting to get clearer and clearer as we look at it. It seems like Cory Booker is going to lose this nomination...."

Third Ballot:
Peter Shumlin: 2211
Cory Booker: 1528
Julian Castro: 451
Unallocated: 23

()

"In spite of the original delegate count working against him, it seemed that Booker didn't have the grassroots, the momentum, or the confidence to gain the nomination, and it looks like Shumlin has swiped what he thought was rightfully his. Nevertheless, Booker plans to squash the beef and endorse the nominee enthusiastically. " - Chris Matthews

()

"AMERICA... we need this man! This man will change things for America. I know, I competed against him. Most people didn't know who he was before he ran. Now, people know him as the man who completely turned around and won the nomination, and I fully support him. I know he can make a difference because he already has, and he will be a great nominee and Brad Henry a great Vice Presidential nominee!"

"The way the democrats came together for this guy was absolutely beautiful, polls out of the Convention are already showing a giant bounce from the DNC, with Shumlin/Henry leading Paul/Sandoval by 5-10 points! This is the way to do a National Convention!" - Chris Matthews

Rasmussen:
Shumlin/Henry: 50%
Paul/Sandoval: 45%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 3%

PPP:
Shumlin/Henry: 53%
Paul/Sandoval: 43%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 3%

Map Tossups

()

Map No Tossups

()

Oh, great!

BTW, it's nice to see a map with so many toss-ups. Makes things really interesting.

I'd like to see some polls from Oklahoma :)

Polls from Oklahoma are much narrower than expected, but the lead is still near 10 points for Paul/Sandoval.

What's up with Arkansas.

Brad Henry is a moderate Democrat, Arkansas is still decently democratic (Obama just happens to be the absolute wrong Democrat for Arkansas)

We deserve a big update!!

Pre-First Debate Coverage

()

"Shumlin is going to pull out of this debate with a strong victory. Rand Paul is continuing to be wrong on the middle class, wrong on families, and wrong on social issues. He won't be able to connect with the American people like Mr. Shumlin can! Paul identifies himself with the hyper partisan Tea Party, Shumlin identifies himself with the people!"

()

"I'm very proud of the work we've done in Washington, and I believe Rand is as much of a factor in that success as I was. I think the media is under-evaluating his ability to debate, and I'm not normally a media denier. He's a firm believer in economic freedom and civil liberties, something that all Americans believe in when you look in the polls."

()

"Now I know Mr. Paul and Mr. Sandoval are trying to parade themselves as a bunch of good old moderates. They don't identify with the extremist, war-mongering faction of their party, they're oppose some of their parties core ideas and fighting for you. Well, that's just not the truth. Rand Paul, besides the war issue, had one of the most conservative voting records in the history of the Senate. Brian Sandoval as governor cut into education severely. These guys aren't moderates, their budget hunters, wanting to cut you and your family while keeping the benefits up in Washington. Shumlin-Henry wants to help the average American, not hurt them in the favor of more tax cuts."

()

"Now recent polls are showing the race a bit more even than before, but the lead is still in the hands of Shumlin and Henry, who have proven to be a surprisingly potent duo, with Shumlin running up the margins in the New England area, while Henry helping immensly in the mid-south. Their weakness? The west, where Paul and Sandoval are lapping them by a wide margin (minus California). We will be going to the Debate in a second but first, lets just take a look at those maps and polls."

National Polls:
Peter Shumlin/Brad Henry: 49%
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 47%
Undecided: 4%

Who Do You Think Will Win The Debate?:
Peter Shumin: 68%
Rand Paul: 22%
Not Sure: 10%

Toss-Ups Map:
()

No Toss-Ups Map:
()

 The debate will be crucial for Paul.

Debate was a tie!

Who won the debate?

CNN:
Rand Paul: 47%
Peter Shumlin: 46%
Not Sure: 7%

CBS:
Tie: 40%
Rand Paul: 30%
Peter Shumlin: 30%

CNBC:
Rand Paul: 47%
Peter Shumlin: 44%
Not Sure: 9%

()

"While Paul surprises in the debate, it still looks like a draw in the polling, both in the debate polls and in the national polls. Most say that Vice President Paul won on the economy, drug issues, and trade, while Shumlin won on class, healthcare, immigration, and environmental, with other issues within the margin of error. The debate helps Paul, but not by much."

National Polls:
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval: 49%
Peter Shumlin/Brad Henry: 48%
Undecided: 3%

Who Do You Think Will Win the VP Debate?
Brian Sandoval: 55%
Brad Henry: 35%
Undecided: 10%

Who Do You Think Will Win the Second Debate?
Peter Shumlin: 53%
Rand Paul: 40%
Undecided: 7%

Is Henry a good speaker? Because I think Sandoval is mediocre.

Henry is also fairly ordinary as a public speaker.

UPdate!!

Who is the Justice Party running this time around?

()

President-Elect Peter Shumlin/ Vice President-Elect Brad Henry: 51.5% 273 Electors
Vice President Rand Paul/Former Governor Brian Sandoval: 46.9% 265 Electors
Others: 1.6%

"It appears that Shumlin's strategy of picking a Southern Democrat managed to work. While he lost New Mexico and Iowa, two states he thought was expected to pick up, he managed to pull a surprise in Oklahoma, where Brad Henry spent a lot of time exclusively, mainly because was the very popular senator from the state. This was a complete shock to the Paul campaign, who fully expected to lose the popular vote while winning the electoral vote due to sliced margins in the south and Shumlin's glorified margins in the Northeast. Many were expecting a possible Shumlin win, none were expecting one of this level." - John King

()

"I congratulate my opponent and hope for another great four years of American prosperity, but that does not mean i will compromise on my principles. I am still a fighter for individual liberty and freedom, and that message will not be marginalized as long as America exists. We understand this on a basic level: its why I was not voted in. I am honored by the system we have, even if it didn't bring favor to me. Peter Shumlin is a very qualified man and I hope that he does the job well."

Peter Shumlin Approval:
Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 13%
Undecided: 25%

How did Shumlin lose NH? And how'd he win the PV by 5 points, but only the EV by 3?

Since Huntsman, NH had been traveling heavily Republican, even though Rand Paul only won it by a half a point. He won the popular vote by 5 points by slicing his margins in the south and boosting his margins immensely in most of the north east and in Illinois and California.

Great timeline! :)

I think I'm done with this timeline.

Might do a 1980 Timeline.

^
Also the 1980 thing sounds interesting

You did very well! :)

Excellent timeline 10/10