Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 25, 2012, 12:54:07 PM



Title: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 25, 2012, 12:54:07 PM
Who will win each of the following counties? I'll state later why I'm watching each one for how it votes.

Fayette, PA
Floyd, KY
Loudon, VA
Duval, FL
Dare, NC
Plymouth, MA
DuPage, IL
Pine, MN
Orange, CA
Douglas, GA


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Devils30 on September 25, 2012, 01:03:56 PM
Fayette, PA- Romney (but not by much more than 2008)
Floyd, KY- Romney (by roughly same)
Loudon, VA- Obama (possibly by greater than 2008)
Duval, FL- Obama by less than 2% (inner city trending Dem)
Dare, NC- Romney
Plymouth, MA- Obama
DuPage, IL- Obama
Pine, MN- Obama
Orange, CA- Romney (very narrow)
Douglas, GA- Obama (possibly by a few points more due to minority growth)


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: mondale84 on September 25, 2012, 01:28:55 PM
Obama will win all of them.


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: old timey villain on September 25, 2012, 01:37:01 PM
I'd also watch Gwinnett County, GA. It's been Republican for years but it's less than 44% white now. if the second largest county in the state goes for Obama it could be a sign that Georgia will be competitive in the future.


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: © tweed on September 25, 2012, 01:45:57 PM
the crazy thing about DuPage 08 was that Obama won by almost eleven points. beating his national tack by a non-negligible amount.  if the race keeps heading where we think it's heading he will win DuPage but I find it hard to believe he will beat his national number by 3.6%ish again


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Donerail on September 25, 2012, 02:03:38 PM
Don't see Duval swinging; they went R in every election except 76 and 64 (and 68, but not for the Democrat).


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 25, 2012, 02:50:23 PM
Don't see Duval swinging; they went R in every election except 76 and 64 (and 68, but not for the Democrat).

It actually also voted R in 1964.


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 25, 2012, 03:09:58 PM
My reasons for including each:

Fayette, PA: traditionally Democratic county which Obama lost in 2008 for the first time since 1972; can Romney's lack of appeal with blue-collars swing it back?
Floyd, KY: A county that has never voted Republican swung to McCain in 2008 despite having gone over 60% for Kerry, but it was really close. Another test of the white blue-collar vote.
Loudon, VA: The closest of the NoVa counties that Obama won. A test of whether Romney really can make gains in affluent suburbia.
Duval, FL: A traditionally Republican county, it was close in 2008. Can Obama carry it with the increasingly diversifying population?
Dare, NC: Though McCain won it by 9%, it voted against Amendment 1 (possibly because of the claims that it would harm tourism; Dare's Outer Banks are a big vacation spot).
Plymouth, MA: The only county in Massachusetts that was more Republican than the national average. Can Romney pick up one county in his home state?
DuPage, IL: Obama carried a traditionally affluent Republican county in his home state by a significant margin; will the favorite son effect continue or will it snap back?
Pine, MN: Once part of the Democratic blue-collar Iron Range, Pine is increasingly becoming an exurban Minneapolis county. Does Obama hold on?
Orange, CA: The ultimate test of wealthy whites swinging to Romney vs. heavy minority (specifically Hispanic) turnout. Hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since the New Deal.
Douglas, GA: A narrow Obama county in 2008; suburban but racially diverse. Like Orange, will Obama's coalition stay together?


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: 5280 on September 25, 2012, 03:12:53 PM
I'm taking Snowstalkers counties and adding mine.

Fayette, PA
Floyd, KY
Loudon, VA
Duval, FL
Dare, NC
Plymouth, MA
DuPage, IL
Pine, MN
Orange, CA
Douglas, GA
Jefferson, CO
Arapahoe, CO
Larimer, CO
Albany, WY
Ventura, CA
Carson City, NV
Dallas, TX


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 25, 2012, 08:44:58 PM
You sure about Dallas? I'd say Harris is a better bellwether.

And my bets on how they go:

Fayette, PA: Obama
Floyd, KY: Obama
Loudon, VA: Obama
Duval, FL: Romney
Dare, NC: Romney
Plymouth, MA: Romney
DuPage, IL: Obama
Pine, MN: Obama
Orange, CA: Romney
Douglas, GA: Obama


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on September 25, 2012, 09:40:01 PM
Montgomery County, PA

/kidding


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: seb_pard on September 25, 2012, 09:54:19 PM
and staten island?


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 26, 2012, 12:23:06 AM
Will Romney do better than McCain in Maverick County, TX? Of course Obama will win it, but McCain did terribly there, which was hilarious.


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: © tweed on September 26, 2012, 05:52:05 PM

good call.  Romney should play relatively well there, gun to my head I say he carries it


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on October 08, 2012, 09:57:30 AM
Bump. Thoughts on these 10?


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: timothyinMD on October 08, 2012, 03:15:03 PM
Keys to winning the election:
Jefferson, CO Loudoun, VA, Wake, NC, Hillsborough, FL, Hamilton, OH, Washoe, NV, Brown, WI

For fun:
Plymouth and Barnstable, MA
All of Utah
All of Hawaii
Southern WV
Northwest ND
Suffolk, NY

For purposes of looking to the future:
Maricopa, AZ, Harris, TX, Cobb, GA will be interesting


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: NVGonzalez on October 08, 2012, 03:20:34 PM
Keys to winning the election:
Washoe, NV

THANK YOU!!!!


Title: Re: 10 counties to watch
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 08, 2012, 06:00:18 PM
the crazy thing about DuPage 08 was that Obama won by almost eleven points. beating his national tack by a non-negligible amount.  if the race keeps heading where we think it's heading he will win DuPage but I find it hard to believe he will beat his national number by 3.6%ish again
I think Romney narrowly wins DuPage County.