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Title: How many Congressional districts will Obama carry? Post by: Mr.Phips on September 26, 2012, 12:03:05 AM He carried 237 last time under the new lines. Any districts that Obama lost last time that he might carry and vise versa?
Title: Re: How many Congressional districts will Obama carry? Post by: Nichlemn on September 26, 2012, 01:28:30 AM If there was a sortable spreadsheet, it'd be easy to make guesses with uniform swing. (This Daily Kos one (https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en&key=0At9k6QrlThx6dDVjUmt4RzM4YXZQWVBZSE81dzJ5dVE&hl=en&gid=0") doesn't seem to be sortable).
As it stands, with 538 projecting a PV victory of about 3.5 points, I'm guessing that would leave Obama with perhaps a bare majority of CDs. Obama winning with a minority is very plausible. Title: Re: How many Congressional districts will Obama carry? Post by: Nichlemn on September 26, 2012, 01:53:15 AM As for McCain/Obama districts, the least McCain AZ districts seem to be the best shots (AZ-02 at 50-49 being the most plausible, followed by AZ-01 at 51-47).
Obama/Romney districts will mostly be the narrowly Obama districts from 2008. CT-04 (Fairfield County, home to lots of finance types) is probably the strongest Obama district (at 60%) that Romney has a reasonable chance at carrying. Title: Re: How many Congressional districts will Obama carry? Post by: Bacon King on September 26, 2012, 02:06:40 AM Are we talking 2008 district lines or 2012 district lines?
Title: Re: How many Congressional districts will Obama carry? Post by: Mr.Phips on September 26, 2012, 02:38:57 AM Are we talking 2008 district lines or 2012 district lines? 2012 lines. |