Talk Elections

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Obama is still favored, however, if the other two debates are similar to this, Mitt Romney will win the election.

Agreed but with a 2000 Bush style win.

To put it in probabilistic terms, Obama has about a 70% chance of winning after this debate, but if the other two debates go like this Mitt has about a 60% chance of winning.

The Rust Belt isn't going to vote for Mr Let Detroit Go Bankrupt. Goode will keep VA in the Dem column. And all the Mexicans in CO, NV, and NM will keep those states in the Obama camp

Obama. But Romney has clung to the possibility he could pull off a win. If he lost tonight it probably would have been over barring a major surprise. I expect Ryan to beat Biden, if that keeps up perhaps we'll see even polling.

Still Obama.

Obama. I'm not sure if Romney will even get a bump out of this (although the MSM lovefest may produce one in itself).

Obama, but this might bring one or two senate seats back from the brink.

Those numbers have not been too bad.  I'd list it as unsure.

Obama

I'm not quite sure about this; Obama being defeated at what he usually excels does not bear well for him even if he still leads the polls.

Yes, that's what I'm thinking... Romney earned a second look from people, but this certainly didn't seal any deals.

I haven't changed my view all along that Romney will win.  Records matter, the economy matters, and some of the optics of Obama's term have been jarring.

Still Obama.

Obama, but he better not f**k up the other two debates.

Unsure. Back to 50/50 for me.

Obama, but a landslide is now out of the question.

Obama has never been an incredible debater, to be honest. He managed to beat McCain in '08 but that was only after about 9,000 debates with Hillary Clinton (and MSM declared him the loser of at least 8,000 of them).

People have very short memories... He beat McCain because McCain was only slightly worse than he was.

gonna take a lot more than this.  Intrade is severely overreacting -- Obama is down from 75 to 65

I wonder if one should buy Obama now or wait a couple of days to see if an actual drop in the polls does materialize.

Obama still leads.  The national polls may get closer, but my guess is that we are now at about Obama +1 and I certainly don't see Romney picking up 5 points in Ohio based on last night.  ~70% chance of Obama victory, down from ~80% 24 hours ago.
 
Now there is the VP debate, which probably won't matter.

Then there is the town hall debate, which I would call a tossup at this point.  Romney will be better prepared than Obama again, which likely does help, but the format won't be as good for him as last night was.  Telling Lehrer/Obama how much stuff you know is different from telling an individual voter how much stuff you know, and the probability of an Awkward Romney Gaffe is highest.  There will probably also be fewer economy questions and more social issues questions- Dems should be grateful that Lehrer didn't bring up women's issues and the like last night as Romney might have cleaned Obama's clock on those too.

Then there is the foreign policy debate, which (a) people likely won't vote on and (b) is not Romney's home turf, as the economy is.

Also, Obama's not done a debate like this for 4 years.

Indeed. He had a ton of practice in the form of his debates against Clinton in '08. Romney was the practiced one here, not that he was up against incredibly challenging opponents in his primary... :P

And of course Kerry whooped Bush in the first debate in 2004. And Bush was generally considered to have won the first one in 2000. Bit of a pattern here...

In regards to InTrade, people often expect overreactions now on that, some might've bought Romney figuring he'd rise so they could sell later.

Obama I say...70% to win. I believe however Ryan will beat Biden and continue the momentum

If Obama loses the town hall debate...that could be the tipping point. Last night was not the tipping point, last night was Romney proving he looked presidential and ready for prime time.

It will take a Romney debate sweep to gradually chip away in places like Penn. and Ohio. Those margins will not be made up overnight. Last night was just a first step

guys I don't think vs.-incumbent elections are decided by things like debates.

Well Ford's debate gaffe arguably cost him the election, but Obama didn't have anything comparable.

Nixon cost Ford the election, the fact that it ever came as close as it did was a total joke.

Romney will win the election if voters judge the 3 debates.  Obama is a bad debater.  Voters will clearly see that Romney would make a more competent president, just based on the debates. 

But I have a feeling that Liberals will just ignore the debates and say they are meaningless, and hope the media boosts Obama's popularity enough for a win. 

But its pretty clear now, that Romney should win the election.

Its eerie how much this election is paralleling 2004. Like that one the incumbent came out of the conventions with a big lead all through September who then went on to lose his first debate. I suspect that Romney, like Kerry, will get a bump to tighten the race.

If Obama loses all three debates as badly as last night I think he could lose the election, but like Bush, I suspect he will do better in the next ones. Obama has got the message and the town hall is more suited for him, and should be able to win or draw the foreign policy debate. I dont really think the VP debate matters except for entertainment but Biden should do fine.

The problem for Romney is that he may tighten the race but, again like with Kerry, I don't see him winning OH (or enough states to compensate for losing OH).

You are all missing the point.  The Rust Belt might very well vote for Romney, especially if he explains what he really believed about the auto bailout and that his proposed plan was exactly what happened in real life.  And even if Romney wins the next two debates, it's not a guarantee that he wins the election.   In 2004 it was agreed that John Kerry won all the debates, and he still lost.  And all the signs I've seen, including the polls, suggest it will be a close election.  I say that it's a 50-50 chance for either candidate winning.  But I will admit, this campaign seems eerily similar to the 2006 gubernatorial election in my home state of Michigan.

I doubt.

Romney response to the Auto bailout is convoluted(and wrong btw) and a mess.

Tomorrows job number will be VERY important.

If it is a "good" number for Obama (saw 150K or better) Romney likely loses a good bit of the bump he get from last nights trashing of the teleprompterless unwonderkinder.......

If it is a "bad" number, say under 100K, Romney gets a quick and powerful reinforcement of his message, and he might get a pretty decent bump.

Obama is running a better campaign.

He has more money, and is doing a better job coordinating his message with friendly organizations (CBC, ABC, NBC, NYTimes, PBS, etc) than Romney is with his friendlies (Crossroads GPS, Talk Radio, etc)

The GOP has always subcontracted it's "grassroots" out to conservative organizations, and they are still not quite there for Romney.

Obama is still ahead, it's closer than it was.

Not true.  Romney opposed federal funding for the auto industry bailout.  The Obama Administration provided federal funding for the bailout. 

Plus Ford was basically only a pseudo incumbent anyway.

Obama, though I'm less confident now.