Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 06, 2012, 06:05:50 PM



Title: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 06, 2012, 06:05:50 PM
No link yet, but Obama still clings to a small lead in the Badger state, 49-47. That's a tightening from a 7 point lead in late September, 52-45. No link yet. But it seems that Friday was a worse polling day in the state for him and that the Saturday interviews looked more like the pre-debate ones.
EDIT: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-down-to-2-in-wisconsin.html
Breath a sigh of relief my fellow Democrats.
Quote
The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He's gone from leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage (92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama's held steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.
But Mitts favorables have shifted from an underwater 44-51 to 49-58. White voters have gone from favoring Obama by 5 to supporting Romney by 3. That's a net -8 from the President.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Yank2133 on October 06, 2012, 06:07:30 PM
Yeah, it seems Friday must of have been the best polling day for Mitt this entire election.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 06:09:56 PM
I actually predicted that exact result on another forum! damn, why didn't I do it here.



Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Oakvale on October 06, 2012, 06:20:45 PM
Quote
Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers


Hmmm... ;)


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Thomas D on October 06, 2012, 06:31:33 PM
Big Birds Fav numbers among the WI GOP:

37/12

What is wrong with these people?


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Ty440 on October 06, 2012, 06:32:46 PM
Wow. Now this is what a bounce looks like.

()


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Devils30 on October 06, 2012, 06:44:25 PM
Good bounce for Mitt but if he's still down here after that debate it doesn't look terribly promising.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 06:47:19 PM
Looking at the internals... Obama's increased his position among Indies, but Romney has consolidated his support among the GOP... and some Dems may have shifted to the undecideds...


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Vern on October 06, 2012, 06:55:01 PM
Very good numbers or Romney. I believe He can still win this state.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 06, 2012, 08:02:11 PM
Good news, let's see if Romney can keep it up. Not winning Badgerland except as 293/297.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 08:13:32 PM
It's a good number for sure, but if it's true Romney peaked on Friday - he'll have to do really well to maintain momentum.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 06, 2012, 08:43:30 PM
Wow. It's worse than I thought. Looks like opebo was right: complete collapse with white voters. If it's this bad in Wisconsin, a relatively racially enlightened state, I'd hate to see the numbers in Ohio or Virginia.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 08:48:56 PM
Wow. It's worse than I thought. Looks like opebo was right: complete collapse with white voters. If it's this bad in Wisconsin, a relatively racially enlightened state, I'd hate to see the numbers in Ohio or Virginia.

Oh just relax lol


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 08:50:01 PM
Well, it is a bounce, but there is no guarantee it will hold.

And Lief, take a pill.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Ty440 on October 06, 2012, 08:54:46 PM
Wow. It's worse than I thought. Looks like opebo was right: complete collapse with white voters. If it's this bad in Wisconsin, a relatively racially enlightened state, I'd hate to see the numbers in Ohio or Virginia.

Obebo is a sage when it comes to the white voter. When he says whites aren't gonna vote for you. You can take it to the bank.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 08:59:37 PM
Apart from 2008 of course...

The white voter has been especially skittish this year, they were behind Obama, then Romney, then back to Obama and now back to Romney - there's absolutely no reason to assume they can't move again in a month...


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Sbane on October 07, 2012, 12:30:32 AM
If Romney is not up here currently, he is not winning it without winning the PV. It all comes down to Ohio.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 12:57:24 AM
If Romney is not up here currently, he is not winning it without winning the PV. It all comes down to Ohio.

We could see an expanding base for Romney as well.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Sbane on October 07, 2012, 01:01:58 AM
If Romney is not up here currently, he is not winning it without winning the PV. It all comes down to Ohio.

We could see an expanding base for Romney as well.

In terms of states? What other states besides Wisconsin are you looking at? Obviously states like VA, IA, CO and FL on their own aren't going to cut it for Romney, though they are prerequisites. Adding NH to that list doesn't work. NV and WI are the only ones who work and I do think Romney has a better chance in WI than NV. This poll shows that WI is not a Romney state even when he is in a strong position, thus I think OH is still the key. And although I do think Opebo is trolling with his "racist whites" meme, in OH it might actually affect the race. The type of people Obama needs to win in OH tend to not like Blacks.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 01:08:15 AM
If Romney is not up here currently, he is not winning it without winning the PV. It all comes down to Ohio.

We could see an expanding base for Romney as well.

In terms of states? What other states besides Wisconsin are you looking at? Obviously states like VA, IA, CO and FL on their own aren't going to cut it for Romney, though they are prerequisites. Adding NH to that list doesn't work. NV and WI are the only ones who work and I do think Romney has a better chance in WI than NV. This poll shows that WI is not a Romney state even when he is in a strong position, thus I think OH is still the key. And although I do think Opebo is trolling with his "racist whites" meme, in OH it might actually affect the race. The type of people Obama needs to win in OH tend to not like Blacks.

I mean Romney could also be broadening his support.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 07, 2012, 05:22:35 AM
Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day. 


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Sbane on October 07, 2012, 08:52:27 AM
If Romney is not up here currently, he is not winning it without winning the PV. It all comes down to Ohio.

We could see an expanding base for Romney as well.

In terms of states? What other states besides Wisconsin are you looking at? Obviously states like VA, IA, CO and FL on their own aren't going to cut it for Romney, though they are prerequisites. Adding NH to that list doesn't work. NV and WI are the only ones who work and I do think Romney has a better chance in WI than NV. This poll shows that WI is not a Romney state even when he is in a strong position, thus I think OH is still the key. And although I do think Opebo is trolling with his "racist whites" meme, in OH it might actually affect the race. The type of people Obama needs to win in OH tend to not like Blacks.

I mean Romney could also be broadening his support.

What exactly do you mean by this? Romney can win an unexpected state when the PV is basically tied?


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 08:53:11 AM
Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day. 

No "negation," so far.  2/3 of Rasmussen sample has been after the jobs number, and it is unchanged.

Also keep in mind that Obama can claim that unemployment is no worse when he took office.  He can't claim it is better than when he took office.  Bush did get reelected, however, with worse numbers (though not as bad).


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 08:54:44 AM


What exactly do you mean by this? Romney can win an unexpected state when the PV is basically tied?

He could be attracting undecides. 


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 07, 2012, 10:00:19 AM
Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day.  

You mean the jimmied up jobs report?  The unemployment rate does not fall by almost half a percentage point without the economy creating 300,000+ jobs.  It just doesnt happen.  

Im nearly 100% certain that the Obama administration played around with these numbers in order to get a result that Obama wanted before the election.  You cant change the number of jobs created, but you can change the rate.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 07, 2012, 10:39:50 AM
Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day. 

No "negation," so far.  2/3 of Rasmussen sample has been after the jobs number, and it is unchanged.

Also keep in mind that Obama can claim that unemployment is no worse when he took office.  He can't claim it is better than when he took office.  Bush did get reelected, however, with worse numbers (though not as bad).

I do not factor Rasmussen's ridiculous numbers into my analysis.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 07, 2012, 11:50:34 AM
Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day.  

You mean the jimmied up jobs report?  The unemployment rate does not fall by almost half a percentage point without the economy creating 300,000+ jobs.  It just doesnt happen.  

Im nearly 100% certain that the Obama administration played around with these numbers in order to get a result that Obama wanted before the election.  You cant change the number of jobs created, but you can change the rate.
The rate fell because the jobs created in the months of August and July were revised up drastically. That means that combined with this month and the net + revisions of those two months we created over 200,000 new jobs so the rate fell.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2012, 12:42:33 PM
Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day.  

You mean the jimmied up jobs report?  The unemployment rate does not fall by almost half a percentage point without the economy creating 300,000+ jobs.  It just doesnt happen.  

Im nearly 100% certain that the Obama administration played around with these numbers in order to get a result that Obama wanted before the election.  You cant change the number of jobs created, but you can change the rate.

People going back to school in September.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Oakvale on October 07, 2012, 12:45:54 PM
Do any of the Republicans in this forum outside of JJ and Phil have ANYTHING to contribute outside of "GOOD NEWS"?

and any bounce from the debate Romney got is washed out by the jobs report.  People flocked to Romney for 2 days because he made a great (BS, mind you) case that the economy was going to sh**t.  Friday negated that.  Obama by 5.5 on election day. 

You mean the jimmied up jobs report?  The unemployment rate does not fall by almost half a percentage point without the economy creating 300,000+ jobs.  It just doesnt happen. 

Im nearly 100% certain that the Obama administration played around with these numbers in order to get a result that Obama wanted before the election.  You cant change the number of jobs created, but you can change the rate.

Please feel free to elaborate on this buffoonish conspiracy theory.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 07, 2012, 07:02:04 PM
For what it's worth, looking at the internals of this poll, the entirety of Romney's bump seems to come from an increase in Republican enthusiasm. Nate Silver as well points out that in all the registered voter polls we're seeing, there's not been much movement. These data points, plus Obama's approval ratings holding steady at around 50% in all the polling, seems to indicate that Romney's bounce will be ephemeral, and indeed could disappear pretty quickly.

We'll see in the next few days, but it's important to remember that these PPP polls are incredibly unreliable right now. Robo-polling + polling right after a big news event + weekend polling is a pretty terrible combination.


Title: Re: PPP Wisconsin: Obama 49-47
Post by: AmericanNation on October 08, 2012, 09:12:32 PM
If Romney is not up here currently, he is not winning it without winning the PV. It all comes down to Ohio.

We could see an expanding base for Romney as well.

In terms of states? What other states besides Wisconsin are you looking at? Obviously states like VA, IA, CO and FL on their own aren't going to cut it for Romney, though they are prerequisites. Adding NH to that list doesn't work. NV and WI are the only ones who work and I do think Romney has a better chance in WI than NV. This poll shows that WI is not a Romney state even when he is in a strong position, thus I think OH is still the key. And although I do think Opebo is trolling with his "racist whites" meme, in OH it might actually affect the race. The type of people Obama needs to win in OH tend to not like Blacks.

Yea Romney will need to win the PV to win Wisconsin.  Same is going to be true with OH and VA.  Obama has been outspending Romney like crazy here.  Romney had been dialing back money here to focus on other places (10 point deficits will do that to Boston), but this news will reverse the flow of money (seriously I've herd it will).  Romney will need to win by 1% to 1.5% nationally to win Wisconsin.