Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 01:14:51 AM



Title: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 01:14:51 AM
Conducted after the debate:

47% Obama
43% Romney
  4% Others

The poll also found that President Obama is currently leading among independent voters, 48-31.

Quote
Those who said that they watched or heard about the debate believe that Gov. Romney won by a huge margin, 68-19. That includes almost half of Obama supporters (47 percent), with just 37 percent of the President’s supporters saying he did the better job. In addition, 38 percent of likely Colorado voters said their impression of Gov. Romney is improving, while 18 percent of respondents felt the same way about President Obama.

“Two important lessons from the polls are, first, there are very few undecided voters left in Colorado, and second, Gov. Romney has improved his position to win them over in the closing days of the race,” said University of Denver political scientist Dr. Peter Hanson. “President Obama is maintaining a narrow lead in the state, but the major question is how much movement we can expect in the polls in coming weeks with not many voters left for the candidates to persuade.”

Led by Dr. Hanson, Dr. Masket and J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company, the poll was conducted on Oct. 4 and 5 via telephone with 604 Colorado residents who are 18 years of age or older. To qualify as likely Colorado voters, respondents had to say that they live in Colorado and would definitely vote in the upcoming Presidential election. Responses were adjusted by age, race, and educational attainment to reflect the general population based on recent Census data. The poll included a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. To view the complete poll findings and full description of the methodology, please click here: http://debate2012.du.edu/archive/stories/poll.

http://blogs.du.edu/today/news-media/new-university-of-denver-poll-obama-holds-narrow-lead-in-colorado-voters-overwhelmingly-say-romney-won-first-debate


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 01:15:30 AM
Here come the "real" polls, not the GOP-leaning push polls.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 07, 2012, 01:19:59 AM
In thewords of fromer President George "Will Ferrell" Bush, This Is A Great Day For America.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 01:21:42 AM
There could have been a Romney-bounce actually ...

... if Obama was ahead by 10 in CO before the debate ... :P


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 01:26:08 AM
The toplines also make sense:

http://debate2012.du.edu/media/documents/coloradovoterspoll.pdf

Umengus won't complain about party ID on this one I guess.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: NVGonzalez on October 07, 2012, 01:48:35 AM
I said that it would be 1-2 point bounce. Romney's numbers got a bounce from a positive view but he did no damage to Obama's numbers, plus that jobs report may negate the bounce or at least decrease it so...


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Likely Voter on October 07, 2012, 02:01:35 AM
PPP is a real polster and we can't ignore the 5% bump there. There is also been movement to Romney on Gallup, Rasmussen, Rand and Reuters.  Romney is getting some kind of bump we just dont know how big or how sustained.  

That being said it is hard to imagine a path to 270 for Romney without CO. 'If this poll is close to right, Romney needs another bounce to win election


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: morgieb on October 07, 2012, 02:34:28 AM
PPP is a real polster and we can't ignore the 5% bump there. There is also been movement to Romney on Gallup, Rasmussen, Rand and Reuters.  Romney is getting some kind of bump we just dont know how big or how sustained.  

That being said it is hard to imagine a path to 270 for Romney without CO. 'If this poll is close to right, Romney needs another bounce to win election
PPP did also say that the bounce wasn't sustained, though.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: LastVoter on October 07, 2012, 03:55:45 AM
PPP is a real polster and we can't ignore the 5% bump there. There is also been movement to Romney on Gallup, Rasmussen, Rand and Reuters.  Romney is getting some kind of bump we just dont know how big or how sustained.  

That being said it is hard to imagine a path to 270 for Romney without CO. 'If this poll is close to right, Romney needs another bounce to win election
It's because Opebo is right, the white voters in WI is very different from the one in CO.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Umengus on October 07, 2012, 04:06:41 AM
The toplines also make sense:

http://debate2012.du.edu/media/documents/coloradovoterspoll.pdf

Umengus won't complain about party ID on this one I guess.

party id: R +1 (like in 2008)

I don't buy the 17 % Obama lead amongst Independents (only 10 % in 2008), like I don't buy the 16 % Romney lead amongst Independents voters in the national rasmussen poll.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Yank2133 on October 07, 2012, 08:04:53 AM
PPP is a real polster and we can't ignore the 5% bump there. There is also been movement to Romney on Gallup, Rasmussen, Rand and Reuters.  Romney is getting some kind of bump we just dont know how big or how sustained.  

That being said it is hard to imagine a path to 270 for Romney without CO. 'If this poll is close to right, Romney needs another bounce to win election
PPP did also say that the bounce wasn't sustained, though.

As did reuters, Romney got a massive bounce on Friday.....but both PPP and Reuters claim to have not seen much movement on Saturday.



Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Person Man on October 07, 2012, 08:37:26 AM
The toplines also make sense:

http://debate2012.du.edu/media/documents/coloradovoterspoll.pdf

Umengus won't complain about party ID on this one I guess.

party id: R +1 (like in 2008)

I don't buy the 17 % Obama lead amongst Independents (only 10 % in 2008), like I don't buy the 16 % Romney lead amongst Independents voters in the national rasmussen poll.
After Ken Buck, its conceivable..


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Franzl on October 07, 2012, 08:53:20 AM
Independents in Colorado tend very strongly to be progressives, IIRC. The number doesn't surprise me.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: opebo on October 07, 2012, 11:53:00 AM
It's because Opebo is right, the white voters in WI is very different from the one in CO.

Thank you sir.  And, as the Wisconsin white is to the Colorado white, so the Ohio white is to the Wisconsin white - after Ohio you start to get into Indiana and The South levels of hatred. 

Ohio's what I'm worried about, just Ohio. 


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Person Man on October 07, 2012, 01:01:57 PM
It's because Opebo is right, the white voters in WI is very different from the one in CO.

Thank you sir.  And, as the Wisconsin white is to the Colorado white, so the Ohio white is to the Wisconsin white - after Ohio you start to get into Indiana and The South levels of hatred.  

Ohio's what I'm worried about, just Ohio.  

A possible relatively comfortable Romney win?

(
)

If this is the case, the question then becomes- do we have to wait or change the message now? And what would it take for this closeted racism to start to percolate? It appears,
like Romney's views, that while they are nefarious, they are hard to combat.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Gass3268 on October 07, 2012, 01:14:20 PM
Wisconsin is not a swing state. Obama has led in the last 12 polls by about an average of 6 points. Until Romney has a poll leading in this state from a reputable, this is not a swing state.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 07, 2012, 01:43:13 PM
Another poll out of Colorado has Romney leading by 2 or 3 points.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 07, 2012, 01:51:00 PM
Another poll out of Colorado has Romney leading by 2 or 3 points.
Weren't those polls from a Republican Polling Firm and Gravis Marketing (which had Romney up like 17 in Florida)?


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: LastVoter on October 07, 2012, 04:18:33 PM
It's because Opebo is right, the white voters in WI is very different from the one in CO.

Thank you sir.  And, as the Wisconsin white is to the Colorado white, so the Ohio white is to the Wisconsin white - after Ohio you start to get into Indiana and The South levels of hatred.  

Ohio's what I'm worried about, just Ohio.  

A possible relatively comfortable Romney win?

(
)

If this is the case, the question then becomes- do we have to wait or change the message now? And what would it take for this closeted racism to start to percolate? It appears,
like Romney's views, that while they are nefarious, they are hard to combat.
No, at this point OH and WI aren't in Romney's column yet.
BUt if this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio) video reaches 10 milliion views, Obama needs to come up with a different strategy that involves winning Virginia or Florida, or come with an equivalent presentation that's just as effective into scaring the white working class in Ohio into voting for him. Similar to this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLo0Jwj03JU but a lot scarier, and hire Opebo to narrate it.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Peeperkorn on October 07, 2012, 04:31:37 PM
Joke poll/poster.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Person Man on October 07, 2012, 04:38:11 PM
That would be opebo's path for Romney, anyway. Though Florida is kind of weird. Florida should be lean D by virtue of population and demographics...but Florida cities just dont have those liberal inner suburbs(the downtowns are as big as the ones up north,but  just 5 miles from the tallest building in Central Florida is the State Fair so...) and the population is aging...so...


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: LastVoter on October 07, 2012, 04:54:37 PM
That would be opebo's path for Romney, anyway. Though Florida is kind of weird. Florida should be lean D by virtue of population and demographics...but Florida cities just dont have those liberal inner suburbs(the downtowns are as big as the ones up north,but  just 5 miles from the tallest building in Central Florida is the State Fair so...) and the population is aging...so...
"Opebo's" path is the only path to winning, Romney must win Ohio to win, and so does Obama.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 07, 2012, 05:03:08 PM
Seltzer is one of the most respected pollsters in the country. What are you thinking?


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2012, 06:25:07 PM
Another poll out of Colorado has Romney leading by 2 or 3 points.

Four, and by a very reputable pollster.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: 5280 on October 07, 2012, 09:13:48 PM
Like I said earlier, if Romney wins without CO, then I'm moving the F out of this sorry state.  It's turned into another debt ridden California.


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 12:30:43 AM
Or possibly, this one is an outlier.  I'd find it strange that there is a national bounce, but none in CO.

Uni poll?


Title: Re: CO-University of Denver/Selzer: No Romney-bounce in Colorado
Post by: opebo on October 08, 2012, 07:20:47 AM
(
)

That would be opebo's path for Romney, anyway. Though Florida is kind of weird. Florida should be lean D by virtue of population and demographics...but Florida cities just dont have those liberal inner suburbs(the downtowns are as big as the ones up north,but  just 5 miles from the tallest building in Central Florida is the State Fair so...) and the population is aging...so...
"Opebo's" path is the only path to winning, Romney must win Ohio to win, and so does Obama.

Actually Romney only needs Wisconsin or Iowa or Colorado in that winning OH, FL, VA scenario, right?

And while it seems realistic to say that Ohio is a must win for Obama, its not really the only way -  I haven't entirely given up on Florida or Virginia due to the minority factor and the anti-senior Ryan factor reducing Romney's margin among olds.  As many have said, VA polling has been very stable in this race, implying less racist whites.