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Title: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 07, 2012, 07:16:12 PM PPP has tweeted that Obama is still ahead. No numbers yet. But soon.
Quote Y'all asked for a preview of Virginia so here it is: Obama is still ahead there. Final numbers soon EDIT: Obama 50-47. Romney got his 2 point bounce, up from 51-46 3 weeks ago. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html 1) Obama leads 52-44 among women and trails by only 1, 49-48 among men. 2) He's down 57-40 among white voters but up 59-34 among nonwhite voters. 3) Those under 40 support Obama 59-38, so VA might become a blue state in the next 20 years. 4) The only thing making it close is Romney's huge lead, 59-43, among the group most likely to vote. Old Folk. Quote Romney's performance in the debate on Wednesday seems to have helped his image with Virginia voters. They think he won the debate by a 61/28 margin, including 71/17 with independents. Compared to our last poll he's seen a 10 point gain in his net favorability rating from -2 at 47/49 in mid-September to now +8 at 52/44. The problem for Romney is that most of that gain has come with Democrats, from 6/90 to 21/76. But still only 8% of those Democrats are actually voting for Romney. Much of the improvement in Romney's image is people going from hating Romney and voting for Obama to respecting Romney but still voting for Obama. The reason the race hasn't moved much despite the improvement in Romney's image is that Obama's held steady over the last three weeks in spite of his poor debate performance. 3 weeks ago 50% of Virginians approved of him and 48% disapproved. Now 50% of Virginians approve of him and 48% disapprove. There's been no movement whatsoever in perceptions of his job performance. Obama has a 50/47 advantage over Romney in terms of who voters trust more on the economy, and a 51/46 edge on foreign policy. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 07, 2012, 07:16:47 PM Good news :)
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on October 07, 2012, 07:19:04 PM Good Fuc*ing news!!
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Ty440 on October 07, 2012, 07:19:55 PM lol.. couldn't wait until the actual numbers to post huh
I was gonna post this too but decided to wait Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 07, 2012, 07:21:00 PM Good Fuc*ing news!! Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 07:22:30 PM If it more than +1, he is.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Alcon on October 07, 2012, 07:22:59 PM If it more than +1, he is. By "he," you mean Obama, and by "what," you mean still ahead? Why +1? (Unless you mean up in the poll...where actually he needs to just be up one respondent, even if that rounds to a tie.) Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 07, 2012, 07:34:24 PM Obama leads 50-47, compared to 51-46 in September. Not bad.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 07:35:30 PM If it more than +1, he is. By "he," you mean Obama, and by "what," you mean still ahead? Why +1? (Unless you mean up in the poll...where actually he needs to just be up one respondent, even if that rounds to a tie.) PPP has a slight D bias. +2 or better, Obama is still holding VA. +1, and it is a tossup. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Likely Voter on October 07, 2012, 07:35:42 PM Quote PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Oakvale on October 07, 2012, 07:37:00 PM Quote PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago I will now accept my accolades (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160774). Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: TrapperHawk on October 07, 2012, 07:37:18 PM Quote PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago +3 right now? I'll take it. Better than I expected actually. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: NVGonzalez on October 07, 2012, 07:37:47 PM 2 points. Yup.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Ty440 on October 07, 2012, 07:41:59 PM In a state that Bob Freaking Dole carried in 1996, Romney is in a dogfight in a must win key state. This can't be good for republicans no matter how you spin it.
This is not your father's Old Dominion. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Likely Voter on October 07, 2012, 07:45:48 PM It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days?
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: TrapperHawk on October 07, 2012, 07:50:43 PM It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days? I know that Wisconsin's poll was done from the 4th to the 6th. Maybe Virginia's includes polling from the 7th? (Today). I'm not sure though. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 07:52:11 PM Quote PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Our new Virginia President poll is Obama 50, Romney 47. Just a slight shift toward Romney from 51/46 3 weeks ago +3 right now? I'll take it. Better than I expected actually. Agreed. They said it has been the closest this year. I do want to see the internals. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Adam Griffin on October 07, 2012, 07:53:09 PM It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days? It doesn't surprise me. Virginia has been perhaps the fastest Democratic-trending state of the past 5-6 years. I think it's more or less reached stability, but could become 1-2 points more Democratic by 2016. This is great news. There's no way Romney can win without OH/VA, unless he sweeps NC, WI, FL, IA, NV, CO & one of the following - MN, NH, PA, MI or NM. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 07, 2012, 07:53:55 PM I said to a friend that was panicking about WI and 'oh God what about VA!' my argument was that VA has been a LOT more stable than WI this year.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: 後援会 on October 07, 2012, 07:57:31 PM It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days? Could be that Wisconsin is simply more "elastic" than Virginia. You know, having more white people and all. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: memphis on October 07, 2012, 07:58:34 PM What about Goode?
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Oakvale on October 07, 2012, 07:59:33 PM Important point -
Quote Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr Keep hope alive, fellas. ;) Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: RI on October 07, 2012, 08:01:44 PM It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days? I know that Wisconsin's poll was done from the 4th to the 6th. Maybe Virginia's includes polling from the 7th? (Today). I'm not sure though. Yes, that was the case. The Virginia poll included more "normal" days than the Wisconsin one. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2012, 08:09:55 PM If the right-leaning snap polls by Gravis, Rasmussen, and We Ask America soon after the debate were valid, then the PPP poll in Virginia (PPP is as good as any except perhaps Selzer) suggests that the Romney campaign is in deep trouble.
The bump that President Obama got for offing Osama bin Laden was also short-lived. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Sbane on October 07, 2012, 08:13:28 PM It's a bit weird that WI is tighter than VA. Were the polls both done over the same three days? Could be that Wisconsin is simply more "elastic" than Virginia. You know, having more white people and all. This is correct, but it is way too simplistic to just say "white people" and be done with it. Virginia has a lot of southern whites who are voting for Romney no matter what and liberals up in NOVA who are voting for Obama no matter what. Add in a bunch of Blacks and Puerto Ricans and you have a fairly stable electorate. In Wisconsin you have the northern half of the state being working class whites living in small, but industrial, towns with no racial tension. These are quintessential swing voters. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 07, 2012, 08:15:53 PM Wow, if it's true that Romney's bump disappeared after Friday, then he may be well and truly f[inks]ed. If that debate can't turn this race around, I'm not really sure what can.
I'd like to see more polling before I untie my noose though. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: 7,052,770 on October 07, 2012, 08:15:58 PM PPP has a slight D bias. No it doesn't. Nate Silver demonstrated how it actually has a slight R bias. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Oakvale on October 07, 2012, 08:19:13 PM PPP has a slight D bias. No it doesn't. Nate Silver demonstrated how it actually has a slight R bias. Well to be fair - and it's not often I'll leap to J.J.'s defense! :P - pretty much every pollster had an R bias compared to the final result in 2010. PPP less so - that either means they're more accurate or biased towards Democrats, although personally PPP's one of the few pollsters I pay much attention to. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on October 07, 2012, 08:19:57 PM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: DrScholl on October 07, 2012, 08:28:20 PM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites. That is correct, the rural areas there have a lot more Democratic pockets than most states do, whereas the Milwaukee suburbs are more heavily Republican than other suburbs in northern states. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 08:45:29 PM If the right-leaning snap polls by Gravis, Rasmussen, and We Ask America soon after the debate were valid, then the PPP poll in Virginia (PPP is as good as any except perhaps Selzer) suggests that the Romney campaign is in deep trouble. The bump that President Obama got for offing Osama bin Laden was also short-lived. You make an assumption, that the race will be static. That might not be the case. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Likely Voter on October 07, 2012, 08:49:36 PM So the answer to my question is that the WI poll was Thu/Fri/Sat and the VA poll was Thu/Fri/Sat/Sun
Quote PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Ty440 on October 07, 2012, 08:50:32 PM Whites :
Romney 57% Obama 40% Looks to be a near repeat of 2008. NOT good for Romney, Virginia has only become less white since then. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 07, 2012, 08:51:53 PM Well, it's PPP, so that's still more like Obama+1... Still good news on balance. Virginia is slightly more republican than the nation as a whole, so it might be a sign that Romney's bounce didn't make the race a pure tossup. I guess this would translate into Obama+2 nationwide, which is "dangerous territory" but not quite a dead heat.
In a state that Bob Freaking Dole carried in 1996, Romney is in a dogfight in a must win key state. This can't be good for republicans no matter how you spin it. Ahem... Would you like to talk about Obama's numbers in West Virginia, a State that Mike Freaking Dukakis carried in 1988? ;D Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 08:59:51 PM PPP has a slight D bias. No it doesn't. Nate Silver demonstrated how it actually has a slight R bias. Well to be fair - and it's not often I'll leap to J.J.'s defense! :P - pretty much every pollster had an R bias compared to the final result in 2010. PPP less so - that either means they're more accurate or biased towards Democrats, although personally PPP's one of the few pollsters I pay much attention to. It is one that I pay attention to, but I was thinking about 2008. It slightly overestimated Obama, but not by a huge amount. I think it has something to do with their modeling, but it isn't great and it is well within their MOE. It is consistent with about a one point lean to the Democrats. I give Rasmussen a higher bias to the GOP, but again, not by a lot. Frankly, those are the two best pollsters that publish routinely that are out there. Mason Dixon also tends to be very good, but they don't publish as often. My rule of thumb is basically, actual result is the race is actually Rasmussen R -2, PPP D -1. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 09:02:13 PM Well, it's PPP, so that's still more like Obama+1... Still good news on balance. Virginia is slightly more republican than the nation as a whole, so it might be a sign that Romney's bounce didn't make the race a pure tossup. I guess this would translate into Obama+2 nationwide, which is "dangerous territory" but not quite a dead heat. I'd say Obama +2. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Gass3268 on October 07, 2012, 09:05:06 PM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites. That statement is 100% correct! Just look at the maps for the Walker recall for the GOP extreme, Obama 08 for the Dem and Kerry 04/Gore 00 for the middle point. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2012, 10:01:18 PM This is what I go on: Quote Virginia Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance? Approve .......................................................... 50% Disapprove...................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 2% The reality: Quote Q8 If the candidates for President this fall were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would you vote for? Barack Obama................................................ 48% Mitt Romney.................................................... 44% Gary Johnson ................................................. 4% Virgil Goode .................................................... 1% Jill Stein .......................................................... 0% Undecided....................................................... 2% The two things that won't go away: Quote Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney more on the issue of the economy? Barack Obama................................................ 50% Mitt Romney.................................................... 47% Not sure .......................................................... 3% Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney more on the issue of foreign policy? Barack Obama................................................ 51% Mitt Romney.................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 3% And something of transitory concern: Quote Q6 Who do you think won the debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney this week? Barack Obama................................................ 28% Mitt Romney.................................................... 61% Not sure .......................................................... 11% Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: LastVoter on October 07, 2012, 10:45:54 PM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Reds4 on October 07, 2012, 11:21:34 PM I know this probably won't be popular to post.. but I'll go ahead and say that this poll shows Dems having a +6 Party ID advantage... same as 08... it is also 3 points more Dem than PPP's sample in September. Not a great poll for Romney, but not a terrible one either.
Title: VA: Public Policy Polling: Despite debate, Obama leading Post by: Miles on October 07, 2012, 11:24:42 PM New Poll: Virginia President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-7 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5102012107108)
Summary: D: 50%, R: 47%, I: 0%, U: 3% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html) Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Likely Voter on October 08, 2012, 12:00:24 AM Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic.
Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 12:03:27 AM Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic. Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession. Party ID is possibly the greatest factor in determining how someone will vote. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Alcon on October 08, 2012, 12:05:05 AM Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic. Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession. Party ID is possibly the greatest factor in determining how someone will vote. Yes, which is the main reason that re-weighting for party ID can be really problematic. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2012, 12:06:22 AM Again Party ID is just an attitude, not a demographic. Speaking of Demographics. this poll has 75% White, 18% Black. In 2008 that was 70% and 20%. Also this poll has 22% olds and 12% youngs when in 2008 it was 11% olds and 22% youngs. It also has 53% female when it was 54% female. In other words it underweights women, blacks, hispanics and young people. If this poll were "unskewed" to match the 2008 demograhics it would have a huge Obama lead, not that I'm saying it should I'm just making a point about this silly party ID obsession. Party ID is possibly the greatest factor in determining how someone will vote. But party ID is not a demographic. Party ID is a person's choice, just like voting intentions. Saying that democrats are oversampled in a poll is like saying the poll is wrong because it puts Obama ahead. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2012, 12:06:56 AM I think it's more accurate to say that how someone will vote is possibly the greatest factor in determining party ID.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: 5280 on October 08, 2012, 12:07:32 AM The gap is slowly closing.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Gass3268 on October 08, 2012, 12:10:25 AM Important point - Quote Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr Keep hope alive, fellas. ;) This is the most important point made by this poll. The job's report killed Romney's bounce! Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 08, 2012, 12:18:51 AM The gap is slowly closing. No, the gap closed.... we'll see if there's further closing in future polls. There's just as much chance that Obama moves out again, than Romney closing in further. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 12:20:57 AM But party ID is not a demographic. Party ID is a person's choice, just like voting intentions. Saying that democrats are oversampled in a poll is like saying the poll is wrong because it puts Obama ahead. Party ID, which in some way is a measure of attitudes, is a demographic, i.e. "a single vital or social statistic of a human population." http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/demographic It obviously is a "social statistic," much like religious preference. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2012, 12:23:46 AM Are you seriously arguing that party ID is comparable to religious preference now?
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2012, 12:24:19 AM But party ID is not a demographic. Party ID is a person's choice, just like voting intentions. Saying that democrats are oversampled in a poll is like saying the poll is wrong because it puts Obama ahead. Party ID, which in some way is a measure of attitudes, is a demographic, i.e. "a single vital or social statistic of a human population." http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/demographic It obviously is a "social statistic," much like religious preference. Then voting intention is a "social statistic" as well. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 12:24:35 AM Important point - Quote Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr Keep hope alive, fellas. ;) This is the most important point made by this poll. The job's report killed Romney's bounce! They polled psychics? The jobs report came out Friday, yet they said the numbers from Thursday were like those of Saturday. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 12:28:11 AM Then voting intention is a "social statistic" as well. How they voted in the previous election might be, as would if they voted. Except in cases where they have acted on intention, like requesting an absentee ballot, it would be the statistic the poll was trying to measure. Are you seriously arguing that party ID is comparable to religious preference now? Lief, do you honestly think that religious preference isn't a social statistic? Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 08, 2012, 12:30:26 AM That's the thing, everyone seems to be saying that Friday was Romney's best polling day, it's not surprising because it depends when people poll, what their access to information was etc etc... Not everyone is as 'on' as us when it comes to political events.
It normally takes 24-48 hours for 'events' to filter it polling. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: traininthedistance on October 08, 2012, 12:34:47 AM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites. Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites. The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural). Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on October 08, 2012, 02:02:23 AM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites. Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites. The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural). I'd be willing to say New England as a whole, though I could be wrong about Maine. Maybe parts of the Southwest, for certain definitions of 'rural'? Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2012, 02:16:47 AM Minnesota, right? Connecticut too, pretty sure the NYC suburbs are more Republican than the rural areas.
Also it looks like possibly Indiana, at least in 2008: () Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: traininthedistance on October 08, 2012, 02:20:54 AM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites. Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites. The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural). I'd be willing to say New England as a whole, though I could be wrong about Maine. Maybe parts of the Southwest, for certain definitions of 'rural'? Rural Maine is less democratic than Portland, and similarly Burlington is even stronger Dem than the rest of Vermont. I could definitely see CT and RI as possibilities, though I don't know enough about what rural areas even exist in RI, or if eastern CT is Dem enough to make up for Litchfield. I'm pretty sure that none of the Southwest states would actually qualify here: while there are pockets of liberal white rural voters around all the ski resorts, I'd have to assume they'd be outnumbered by conservatives in each state. Hawaii might be a possibility too, come to think of it. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on October 08, 2012, 02:25:03 AM WI may be a state where rural whites are more Democratic than suburban whites. Now I'm wondering what other states we can think of where rural whites are more Dem than suburban whites. The only slam-dunk cases that come to mind are New Hampshire (obviously) and probably Massachusetts, on the strength of Western MA (and the fact that most of the rest of the state really can't be called rural). I'd be willing to say New England as a whole, though I could be wrong about Maine. Maybe parts of the Southwest, for certain definitions of 'rural'? Rural Maine is less democratic than Portland, and similarly Burlington is even stronger Dem than the rest of Vermont. I'm thinking of Windham County as opposed to Rutland here because that's the part of Vermont I grew up in, but I suppose there are parts of Vermont considerably more rural even than Windham County, it being Vermont and all. Quote I'm pretty sure that none of the Southwest states would actually qualify here: while there are pockets of liberal white rural voters around all the ski resorts, I'd have to assume they'd be outnumbered by conservatives in each state. It's not that rural, say, Arizona is particularly Democratic, I just wonder if it's not more Democratic even among whites than suburban Arizona. Quote Hawaii might be a possibility too, come to think of it. Possibly, depending on what qualifies as rural. ____ Oh, Minnesota, perhaps! Think about Bachmann's district as compared to the Iron Range. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Adam Griffin on October 08, 2012, 02:28:54 AM I'm wondering if there are quite a few examples. Georgia has some examples of this trend; when you factor out suburbs in Georgia that have less than 80% white population, you see some slightly smaller Democratic vote tallies in the northern and southwestern suburbs of Atlanta when compared to nearby rural areas. You also see the same trend around Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah, with the rural areas becoming slightly more Democratic.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: LastVoter on October 08, 2012, 02:33:37 AM States that would fit the bill imo: HI, IN, MN, MI, OH(not 2008), WV(no real suburban areas though), NH, MA, CT, NY(this one is close though), SC, GA(black belt), NM, ID. A few more examples could be made up but those states often lack suburban or rural areas. I think this depends on how far you are willing to stretch the definitions of rural and suburban.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: memphis on October 08, 2012, 03:29:46 AM TN for sure. Suburban whites are much more likely to live in the small Deep South area near Memphis, while rural whites live in the less solid Upper South further East.
Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Umengus on October 08, 2012, 02:30:50 PM Party id: D +6 (like in 2008)
Tied amongst independents: My opinion is that the winner of the independent vote will win the state. Title: Re: PPP Virginia: Obama Still Ahead, 50-47 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2012, 02:42:33 PM Why does the Atlas entry put Obama up by 4?
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