Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Likely Voter on October 08, 2012, 05:46:42 PM



Title: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Likely Voter on October 08, 2012, 05:46:42 PM
A week ago we knew where the race was. Obama had a good lead of about 3%, maybe more and lead in all the swing states except maybe NC. Since the debate there has been a lot of polling, some showing huge swing to Romney, others showing smaller swings and then there is some indication of a stabalizing or maybe a swing back. Its confusing.

So where do you think the race is right now in terms of PV and EV?


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Adam Griffin on October 08, 2012, 05:58:19 PM
332-206

49.5%/47.5%

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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 08, 2012, 06:19:45 PM
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294 - 191 - 53


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Comrade Funk on October 08, 2012, 06:45:54 PM
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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Simfan34 on October 08, 2012, 06:56:34 PM
Obama 271 - 206 Romney

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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on October 08, 2012, 06:58:52 PM

This, pretty much.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: LastVoter on October 08, 2012, 07:01:12 PM
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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Likely Voter on October 08, 2012, 07:17:41 PM
If the election were held today, then I predict
Obama 49.9
Romney 48.9
Other 1.2

EV is Obama 284/Romney 254

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And what's with those leaving states in grey? Make the call! It's not like there is any money on it.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Reaganfan on October 08, 2012, 07:39:38 PM
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Romney: 275
Obama: 263


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on October 08, 2012, 07:42:40 PM
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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Devils30 on October 08, 2012, 07:44:24 PM
Obama 50.3, Romney 48.6, Others 1.1:
Obama 303, Romney 235

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Close States:
OH: Obama +2.3
PA: Obama +6.2
VA: Obama +2.1
WI: Obama +4.3
IA: Obama +3.1
NV: Obama +5.5
CO: Obama +3.4
NH: Obama +1.8
FL: Romney +0.7
NC: Romney +3.5


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: RI on October 08, 2012, 07:54:48 PM
Same as it ever was, minus maybe NC which might lean Romney now. Maybe not. Hard to say at the moment.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on October 08, 2012, 07:57:38 PM
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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Cory on October 08, 2012, 08:41:06 PM
I'll just go ahead and post on behalf of Politico and Winfield, they deserve a break:

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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 08, 2012, 08:58:09 PM
NM and MI probably go Mitt before PA.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 08, 2012, 09:05:41 PM

Lol no


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 08, 2012, 10:17:23 PM
It isn't laughable for certain and I'm probably right.  Although PA could have shifted a lot in the last few days which could make me wrong. 


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Adam Griffin on October 08, 2012, 10:23:30 PM
It isn't laughable for certain and I'm probably right.  Although PA could have shifted a lot in the last few days which could make me wrong. 

I halfway agree with this. There are some strong Democratic fundamentals in Pennsylvania that make it a fairly solid bastion despite being closer than states like NM at times. Had Voter ID been upheld, then it might have been a different story. I think Michigan should be considered on par with Pennsylvania, however; New Mexico could still be a flip-flopper but not in this current climate.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: technical support on October 08, 2012, 11:24:48 PM
Romney's so called  bounce seems to be fading already


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2012, 01:13:46 AM
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WI, MI and PA are "slight/lean" Obama.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Tidus on October 09, 2012, 04:25:31 AM
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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 06:12:12 AM

This.

Obama is probably up around 2 points nationally. This time last month he was also up 2 points and led in all the above states. Last week he may have been up 4-5 points and led in all the above states. When he was tied with Romney, or close to it around the time of the RNC he was ahead in all of the above states (Florida excluded perhaps) An Obama lead of anything in the range of 0 to 5 points doesn't really shift any of these states either way. We've had no serious polling from Florida nor any post Friday polling from Ohio so we have to wait and see however even if Romney was up 1-2 points nationally it's possible, just possible that Obama would still lead the Electoral College.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 07:09:26 AM
This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

 


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: opebo on October 09, 2012, 09:14:11 AM
This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

Very good.  I like where you put New Hampshire and Nevada - realistic I think.  I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

Yeah, I don't think its really very realistic to include MI, PA, or (particularly) NM in this type of analysis.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 09, 2012, 09:16:20 AM
I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: opebo on October 09, 2012, 09:20:29 AM
I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:

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But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:

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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 09, 2012, 10:29:06 AM
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No Tossups:
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Electoral Vote:
Obama - 272
Romney - 266

Popular Vote:
Romney/Ryan - 49.62%
Obama/Biden - 49.04%


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 09, 2012, 11:12:25 AM
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No Tossups:
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Electoral Vote:
Obama - 272
Romney - 266

Popular Vote:
Romney/Ryan - 49.62%
Obama/Biden - 49.04%

This, with the EV/PV split, but flip CO and VA.  One is much more into the federal government than the other.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 11:22:56 AM
I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:

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But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:

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This is dead on. 

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Erc on October 09, 2012, 11:31:53 AM
For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

Is there any evidence that the Romney campaign is even thinking about moving into PA again?  If somehow he ends up winning the state, it would be as part of a 300+ EV win anyway.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 11:48:53 AM
For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

Is there any evidence that the Romney campaign is even thinking about moving into PA again?  If somehow he ends up winning the state, it would be as part of a 300+ EV win anyway.

I don't know, they will take a hard look at all the numbers they can for sure, in order to figure out if a shift is really happening.
From my perspective, having witnessed the transformation in Wisconsin a few years ago, PA is perhaps the most similar state to Wisconsin from a 'cultural nation' perspective.  This could be the real deal, not just the trap it is every election.  So the state might 'change' position from a 300+ win to a "new" Wisconsin/Colorado/Ohio that only needs around a 1%ish PV victory. 
It's an interesting gambit whether to expand the map or consolidate gains!       

I really like this ad for PA and I would like a new one for sure. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-44o5Dn6V98

 


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 09, 2012, 12:09:59 PM
I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:

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But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:

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This is dead on. 

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

For instance: The Philadelphia suburbs may have shifted significantly in the last few days, which totally reshapes the dynamic of the state, bumping PA into the tier with WI and CO.  These are predictable wild shifts that need to have an eye kept on.  Ohio and WI become a lot tougher for Obama if he's defending PA and MI.         

Careful with extrapolating.  If the volatility of the undecideds tells us anything, it's that we could easily be back to September numbers if Romney loses a debate.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 09, 2012, 12:13:54 PM
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Romney: 50.1%
Obama: 47.9%


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on October 09, 2012, 12:19:20 PM
In a dream of mine last night, this was the map:

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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 02:22:32 PM
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This may be a high water mark for a while, but here we are.
*Iowa is probably R or toss today, but we have no polling/info.   


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: opebo on October 09, 2012, 02:31:45 PM
I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 02:41:11 PM
I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.
To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: opebo on October 09, 2012, 02:46:01 PM
To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 

Nobody but whites are gonna shift, because I think non-whites are all well aware what this is about (they're certainly not going to support their own undoing).   I can't say about turnout - I would think that desperation would militate against giving up.. but maybe not.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Vosem on October 09, 2012, 02:48:38 PM

My map is this, but flip CO and OH. Another couple of days of debate coverage may be enough to flip the state, but I don't think Romney's quite there yet.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 03:04:22 PM
To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 

Nobody but whites are gonna shift, because I think non-whites are all well aware what this is about (they're certainly not going to support their own undoing).   I can't say about turnout - I would think that desperation would militate against giving up.. but maybe not.

In my travel through the state (anecdotal evidence) most Hispanics weren't politically engaged.  They were far less engaged than the other two groups.  The democrat Hispanics who hold office or run organizations obviously have networks of support, but they don't reach all of the population by any means.  Wild Card factor is the female Hispanic Republican Governor who can dispel a lot of the race baiting ideology dems rely on.           


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 09, 2012, 03:15:39 PM
In a dream of mine last night, this was the map:

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Which states were the closest?  It looks like what I would expect for, say, Julian Castro/Sherrod Brown narrowly defeating Ryan/Ayotte in 2020.  Extremely farfetched for 2012, though.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: zorkpolitics on October 09, 2012, 09:45:29 PM
Since Suffolk has stated they have stopped polling NC, FL, and VA because of Romney's "overwhelming" lead, I'd say the race today is
Obama 281
Romney 257
From now on its all about Ohio or less likely (NV plus IA) or (WI plus NH) etc
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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: CatoMinor on October 09, 2012, 09:55:11 PM
Since Suffolk has stated they have stopped polling NC, FL, and VA because of Romney's "overwhelming" lead, I'd say the race today is


uh.....I choose to not watch the debate, so I must have missed something. Did Romney verbally rape Obama on stage or something to the effect?


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 10:51:39 PM
Since Suffolk has stated they have stopped polling NC, FL, and VA because of Romney's "overwhelming" lead, I'd say the race today is


uh.....I choose to not watch the debate, so I must have missed something. Did Romney verbally rape Obama on stage or something to the effect?

It was something like a 35 to 0 football game.  Romney smoked him in every aspect.   


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: LastVoter on October 09, 2012, 10:58:43 PM
I might be a little optimistic with WI and OH. I still think VA is at least pink in this scenario, Romney needs to sharpen his whistling skills a lot to play the race card there properly, the supply of racist enough whites that were going to vote for Obama was not large enough.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 09, 2012, 11:01:25 PM

Um.... seriously?

There's only been one reputable poll of VA taken since the debate and it's only shown a 2% swing...

Yeah, you're on ignore until you stop opeboing out.


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: memphis on October 09, 2012, 11:11:36 PM
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Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 09, 2012, 11:15:47 PM

Um.... seriously?

There's only been one reputable poll of VA taken since the debate and it's only shown a 2% swing...

Yeah, you're on ignore until you stop opeboing out.

If Romney is leading 2% nationally, there's no way that he doesn't win the electoral college as well... those electoral votes need to come from somewhere...


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 09, 2012, 11:49:43 PM

Um.... seriously?

There's only been one reputable poll of VA taken since the debate and it's only shown a 2% swing...

Yeah, you're on ignore until you stop opeboing out.

If Romney is leading 2% nationally, there's no way that he doesn't win the electoral college as well... those electoral votes need to come from somewhere...

Actually... considering how Obama over-performed in on the coasts, the Mid-West and the swing states... it's plausible...

But considering the reputable swing-state polling is telling us a slightly different story to a 2% national lead...


Title: Re: Where is the race right now? w/ maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2012, 12:07:25 AM
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Based on 538.com forecasts.