Title: Swing States Post by: Sol on October 11, 2012, 11:48:43 AM So, what states do you think will be up in the air in 2016?
Here's my prediction with an Obama win: () And a Romney win: () Clearly, there'll need to be refinement for both of these. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Cryptic on October 11, 2012, 12:01:55 PM ()
My guess right now, obviously subject to change. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: 5280 on October 11, 2012, 02:02:23 PM ()
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 11, 2012, 02:07:59 PM Title: Re: Swing States Post by: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 PM Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
() With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Comrade Funk on October 11, 2012, 02:42:49 PM ()
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Sol on October 11, 2012, 03:07:04 PM Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:16:49 PM Depends on the nominees.
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:25:01 PM Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Cryptic on October 11, 2012, 04:25:49 PM Depends on the nominees. True. Some states might be turned off by certain nominees and ideologues. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 PM ()
The same as they are now. I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington. Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats. () With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party. Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats. () With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 06:23:20 PM Swing states by definition do not "lean." And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red. I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican. Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea? Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats. Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 07:09:32 PM Swing states by definition do not "lean." And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red. I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican. Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea? Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats. Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Donerail on October 11, 2012, 07:23:46 PM The same as they are now. I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington. Hate to burst your bubble, but Washington isn't a swing state... And neither is Maine (discounting ME-02). Title: Re: Swing States Post by: morgieb on October 11, 2012, 09:36:52 PM Swing states by definition do not "lean." And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red. I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican. Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea? Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats. Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't. It's true at a lower level however that it is a key swing state, if not leaning R. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Adam Griffin on October 12, 2012, 01:09:36 AM ()
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 12, 2012, 08:25:45 AM The same as they are now. I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington. Hate to burst your bubble, but Washington isn't a swing state... And neither is Maine (discounting ME-02). Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Knives on October 12, 2012, 09:15:36 AM I think these states depending on the candidates and the result of this election could swing either way.
() Title: Re: Swing States Post by: LastVoter on October 13, 2012, 03:33:48 AM ()
It's going to be a tough map for pubbies. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: opebo on October 13, 2012, 11:49:25 AM () It's going to be a tough map for pubbies. Texas? I think the OP said 2016, not 2020 or 2024. For 2016 they're actually the same as they are now: () However Nevada and Virginia will lean a little more Dem in 2016 than in 2012, and maybe Wisconsin and Iowa a little less. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: LastVoter on October 13, 2012, 08:11:57 PM () It's going to be a tough map for pubbies. Texas? I think the OP said 2016, not 2020 or 2024. For 2016 they're actually the same as they are now: () However Nevada and Virginia will lean a little more Dem in 2016 than in 2012, and maybe Wisconsin and Iowa a little less. () Title: Re: Swing States Post by: BaldEagle1991 on October 13, 2012, 09:14:02 PM Shouldn't Mississippi be more Republican?
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 13, 2012, 11:25:30 PM Same states as we have now.
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: morgieb on October 14, 2012, 12:24:13 AM Shouldn't Mississippi be more Republican? Title: Re: Swing States Post by: 5280 on October 14, 2012, 12:37:13 AM I love how the Democrats love to bring the word 'racist' in every topic when it comes to immigration policies. You know being an illegal is breaking the law right?
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: LastVoter on October 14, 2012, 10:56:31 PM I love how the Democrats love to bring the word 'racist' in every topic when it comes to immigration policies. You know being an illegal is breaking the law right? Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on October 14, 2012, 11:58:20 PM Too many D-friendly maps in the Midwest.
() Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Averroës Nix on October 15, 2012, 11:58:47 AM Nix's 2016 Statewide Presidential Race Ratings: Generic D vs. Generic R () Safe D: CA+NY+IL+WA+MD+MA+HI+RI+DE+VT+DC = 154 EVs Likely D: PA+NJ+OR+CT+NM+ME = 57 EVs Lean D: MI+MN+NV = 32 EVs Toss-ups: OH+VA+WI+CO+IA+NH = 60 EVs Lean R = FL+AZ+NC = 55 EVs Likely R = TX+GA+IN+MO+MT = 78 EVs Safe R = TN+SC+AL+KY+LA+OK+UT+KS+AR+MS+WV+NE+ID+WY+ND+SD+AK = 102 EVs All D: 243 All R: 235 Toss-ups: 60 Cautionary note: My degree of certainty is low. I suspect that the 2016 electoral map might look significantly different from what we've seen since 2000. Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on October 15, 2012, 12:05:51 PM A wild card: What would Cuomo/Beebe vs. Christie/Martinez look like?
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Sol on October 15, 2012, 12:29:33 PM A wild card: What would Cuomo/Beebe vs. Christie/Martinez look like? () Title: Re: Swing States Post by: solarstorm on October 24, 2012, 01:18:30 AM ()
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Spanish Moss on October 24, 2012, 04:10:22 AM I'd like to think New York, particularly upstate. Maybe our issues would actually be addressed. I can dream.
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: 5280 on October 24, 2012, 07:01:34 PM ()
What would the election be like if every state was toss up? Title: Re: Swing States Post by: The Constable on October 24, 2012, 07:39:25 PM Is Missouri still that much of a swing state? Four years from now my odds would be on it getting redder.
Title: Re: Swing States Post by: Skill and Chance on October 24, 2012, 09:41:16 PM Generic D vs. Generic R
() Specific candidates that would change the map: Warner or Clinton vs. Generic R () Schweitzer or Hickenlooper vs. Generic R () Generic D vs. Rubio or Martinez or Cruz () |