Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential Election => Topic started by: Sol on October 11, 2012, 11:48:43 AM



Title: Swing States
Post by: Sol on October 11, 2012, 11:48:43 AM
So, what states do you think will be up in the air in 2016?

Here's my prediction with an Obama win:

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And a Romney win:
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Clearly, there'll need to be refinement for both of these.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Cryptic on October 11, 2012, 12:01:55 PM
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My guess right now, obviously subject to change.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: 5280 on October 11, 2012, 02:02:23 PM
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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 11, 2012, 02:07:59 PM
This.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 02:15:51 PM
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.

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With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Comrade Funk on October 11, 2012, 02:42:49 PM
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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Sol on October 11, 2012, 03:07:04 PM
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:16:49 PM
Depends on the nominees.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: morgieb on October 11, 2012, 04:25:01 PM
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Cryptic on October 11, 2012, 04:25:49 PM

True.  Some states might be turned off by certain nominees and ideologues.  


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:05:31 PM
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The same as they are now.  I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.

Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.

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With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party.
Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.

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With of course, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota as lean-blue, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio as lean-red, and Virginia and Florida being periphery targets for each party.
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: 後援会 on October 11, 2012, 06:23:20 PM
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.

I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican.

Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea?

Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.

Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 07:09:32 PM
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.

I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican.

Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea?

Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.

Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't.
How does Nevada tilt Democrat?  They've elected all Republican governors since 1998.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Donerail on October 11, 2012, 07:23:46 PM
The same as they are now.  I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.

Hate to burst your bubble, but Washington isn't a swing state... And neither is Maine (discounting ME-02).


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: morgieb on October 11, 2012, 09:36:52 PM
Swing states by definition do not "lean."  And even if they did, Iowa and Ohio do not lean red.

I disagree. For example, Nevada and Florida are both considered swing states, but the former is generally understood to tilt Democrat and the latter Republican.

Then again, perhaps tilt is a better idea?

Georgia's got a little kick left it. Don't think it'll be turning into a swing state anytime soon. Nothing like the Research Triangle or NoVa to fuel Democrats.
What about Atlanta?
It's more like a bigger version of Richmond/Charlotte.

Basically. The Atlanta suburbs are very very Republican in a way that NoVa isn't.
How does Nevada tilt Democrat?  They haven't elected all Republican governors since 1998.
We're talking Presidential level. It voted Obama by 13 in 2008.

It's true at a lower level however that it is a key swing state, if not leaning R.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Adam Griffin on October 12, 2012, 01:09:36 AM
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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 12, 2012, 08:25:45 AM
The same as they are now.  I would also include leaners: Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.

Hate to burst your bubble, but Washington isn't a swing state... And neither is Maine (discounting ME-02).
I didn't say they were.  I said they were leaners that have been swing states in the past.  I like to call them "semi-swing states."


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Knives on October 12, 2012, 09:15:36 AM
I think these states depending on the candidates and the result of this election could swing either way.

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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: LastVoter on October 13, 2012, 03:33:48 AM
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It's going to be a tough map for pubbies.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: opebo on October 13, 2012, 11:49:25 AM
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It's going to be a tough map for pubbies.

Texas?  I think the OP said 2016, not 2020 or 2024.

For 2016 they're actually the same as they are now:

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However Nevada and Virginia will lean a little more Dem in 2016 than in 2012, and maybe Wisconsin and Iowa a little less.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: LastVoter on October 13, 2012, 08:11:57 PM
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It's going to be a tough map for pubbies.

Texas?  I think the OP said 2016, not 2020 or 2024.

For 2016 they're actually the same as they are now:

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However Nevada and Virginia will lean a little more Dem in 2016 than in 2012, and maybe Wisconsin and Iowa a little less.
The demographics and intensifying shift in the southwest and intensifying racism among white working class will dictate next election. Here's a corrected map btw:
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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on October 13, 2012, 09:14:02 PM
Shouldn't Mississippi be more Republican?


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 13, 2012, 11:25:30 PM
Same states as we have now.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: morgieb on October 14, 2012, 12:24:13 AM
Shouldn't Mississippi be more Republican?
Ignore the margins. It's the same as 08.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: 5280 on October 14, 2012, 12:37:13 AM
I love how the Democrats love to bring the word 'racist' in every topic when it comes to immigration policies. You know being an illegal is breaking the law right?


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: LastVoter on October 14, 2012, 10:56:31 PM
I love how the Democrats love to bring the word 'racist' in every topic when it comes to immigration policies. You know being an illegal is breaking the law right?
There are lots of laws that should be broken, especially drug and immigration laws. Opebo would probably add another set of laws to that list.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on October 14, 2012, 11:58:20 PM
Too many D-friendly maps in the Midwest.

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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Averroës Nix on October 15, 2012, 11:58:47 AM
Nix's 2016 Statewide Presidential Race Ratings: Generic D vs. Generic R

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Safe D: CA+NY+IL+WA+MD+MA+HI+RI+DE+VT+DC = 154 EVs

Likely D: PA+NJ+OR+CT+NM+ME = 57 EVs

Lean D: MI+MN+NV = 32 EVs

Toss-ups: OH+VA+WI+CO+IA+NH = 60 EVs

Lean R = FL+AZ+NC = 55 EVs

Likely R = TX+GA+IN+MO+MT = 78 EVs

Safe R = TN+SC+AL+KY+LA+OK+UT+KS+AR+MS+WV+NE+ID+WY+ND+SD+AK = 102 EVs

All D: 243
All R: 235
Toss-ups: 60

Cautionary note: My degree of certainty is low. I suspect that the 2016 electoral map might look significantly different from what we've seen since 2000.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on October 15, 2012, 12:05:51 PM
A wild card: What would Cuomo/Beebe vs. Christie/Martinez look like?


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Sol on October 15, 2012, 12:29:33 PM
A wild card: What would Cuomo/Beebe vs. Christie/Martinez look like?
Something like this, maybe:
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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: solarstorm on October 24, 2012, 01:18:30 AM
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Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Spanish Moss on October 24, 2012, 04:10:22 AM
I'd like to think New York, particularly upstate.  Maybe our issues would actually be addressed.  I can dream.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: 5280 on October 24, 2012, 07:01:34 PM
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What would the election be like if every state was toss up?


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: The Constable on October 24, 2012, 07:39:25 PM
Is Missouri still that much of a swing state? Four years from now my odds would be on it getting redder.


Title: Re: Swing States
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 24, 2012, 09:41:16 PM
Generic D vs. Generic R

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Specific candidates that would change the map:

Warner or Clinton vs. Generic R

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Schweitzer or Hickenlooper vs. Generic R

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Generic D vs. Rubio or Martinez or Cruz

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