Talk Elections

Nova Scotia goes to the polls Saturday to elect mayors and councils across the province.

The main race of course is in Halifax, where former MP Michael Savage is the front runner. Incumbent mayor Peter Kelly (a Tory) is stepping downl. Savage represented Dartmouth-Cole Harbour for the Liberals between 2004 and 2011 when he was defeated by Robert Chisholm of the NDP.

The most recent poll I can find from last month shows Savage at 67%. In 2nd place is police officer Tom Martin (13%) and in 3rd is businessman/social worker Fred Connors (10%).

2008 mayoral race
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Peter Kelly (blue) vs. Liberal city councillor Sheila Fougere (red)

The Cape Breton RM, Nova Scotia's second largest municipality is also having an open seat. The front runner there is Cecil Clarke, a former Tory MLA. His main opponent is Rankin MacSween (who appears to be vaguely on the left). Clarke also ran federally for the Tories in 2011 and narrowly lost to Mark Eyking (less than 600 votes)

I think if I were a Haligonian, I would vote for Fred Connors. Seems like an interesting person (vaguely left of centre): http://www.thecoast.ca/halifax/the-voice-of-passion/Content?oid=3423659

Savage will probably win all 16 districts though (note, the council has been reduced from 23 seats), making for a boring map. If the race tightens, maybe Connors can win a couple districts on the peninsula. But anti-Savage vote splitting will probably prevent that. Tom Martin, the police officer might also be a Liberal, as he ran Sheila Fougere's 2008 campaign. (she has endorsed Savage though)

For the record, I plan on using their campaign colours on any map I make. Savage is green, Connors blue and Martin is purple.

Turnout from 2008: http://www.cbc.ca/ns/features/municipalelections/2008-results/

Highest was in Canso (84.1%) lowest was in Truro (19.4%). Halifax was 36.2% and it was 50.4% in Cape Breton.  Province wide was 42.1%

Savage and Clarke will win in landslides in their respective municipalities as their principal opponents have either declined to run or drop out.

What will be more interesting will be the city council races. The number of districts was reduced so several districts have councillors running against each other.

I assume you live in NS based on your avatar. Is there any interesting council races you want to mention? What is the general partisan make up of the HRM council?

Sure.

1) District 1 (big rural district) has 2 incumbent right leaning councilors; Barry Dalrymple, and Steve Streach (former Tory candidate, Dad was a PC MLA for about 10 years)

2) District 3 (Rurban district) has soft lefty Bill Karsten facing off against hardcore lefty Jackei Barkhouse.

3) District 6 (Poor urban area) has left leaning councilor Darren Fisher facing off against former NDP MLA Jerry Pye.

4) District 7 (South end of Halifax. Wealthy conservatives plus university students) involves a liberal councilor (Sue Uteck) a Liberal challenger (Gerry Walsh) and a conservative (Waye Mason) who somehow managed to get endorsed by the unions :S

5) District 8 (North End Halifax; poor with some gentrification) has two leftists, Dawn Sloane and Jennifer Watts

6) District 12 (Rich suburb+poor suburb) Has conservative Mary Wile and longtime centrist/alcoholic Reg Rankin. I only bring up his alcoholism because my Dad works for the city and Rankin has drunk dialed him twice.

The Halifax peninsula (urban core) and Dartmouth are generally quite left leaning, with lots of focus on green everything, public transit and affordable housing. The municipality is quite large with both a 250 000+ city/suburbs and rural farmland. The rural areas get charged similar property tax rates but do not get the same services. They focus mainly on tax reform and lean to the right. The suburbs are in between and generally vote based on their incomes with poorer areas leaning left and the professional areas leaning right.

I guess municipal politics are more reflective of people's true ideology than federal or provincial elections? I know the Tories dont have any seats in the HRM provincially.

Blog post! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/10/nova-scotia-municipal-elections-2012.html

Thank you, DC Al Fine for your run down :)

Yeah sort of. The Conservatives have a bad reputation here, so it's much easier for a small c conservative to win municipal office than a Conservative to win in another election. Federally, the Tories are halfway competitive in two of the four seats (Halifax West & Sackville Eastern Shore). Provincially, you have to remember, the PC's were thrown out of office in a landslide. The PC's usually hold 1-4 seats in Halifax on the outskirts of the city.

I dont think anyone is competitive in Sackville-Eastern Shore unless his name is Peter Stoffer.

I agree with you, but I'm speaking very generally. The PC's almost won Sackville-Eastern Shore in 1997, and they broke 30% in 2011. Take Stoffer out of it and it becomes an NDP-Conservative race. Compare this to Halifax, when Alexa McDonough retired and the Tories went from 18 to 20% :P

True. Eastern Shore was one of the PCs 3 districts in the HRM in the 2006 provincial election.

Results are slow coming in.

Mike Savage is winning in a landslide for Mayor.

Barry Dalrymple has won in District 1.

Bill Karsten has beaten Jackie Barkhouse in 2

Jennifer Watts wins in 5

Tight 3 way race in 7.

Peter Lund has been upset by Matt Whitman in Hammonds Plains

Savage is easily elected. Still quite a few polls to go, but he has a 30,000 vote lead.  Clarke wins in Cape Breton, but the race is closer there. He's ahead by 10,000 votes.

Actually, all of Cape Breton is in, Clarke wins 59% to Rankin's 38%.

Fisher beat Pye big time in District 6. Signs that the NDP is really unpopular in NS?

There are a lot of municipal elections this Fall across the country, so I have decided to just put it all in this thread.

Halifax mayoral race final results:
Mike Savage    63,547    57.7 - elected
Tom Martin    21,912    19.9
Fred Connors    20,77    18.4
Aaron Eisses    1,628    1.5
Steve Mackie    1,458    1.3
Robert (Wesley) McCormack    1,218    1.1

Cape Breton:
Cecil Clarke    27,732    58.6 - elected
Rankin MacSween    17,847    37.7
Elizabeth Barrie    800    1.7
Glenn Jessome    660    1.4
Wilf Isaac    286    0.6

Other results from last week

Iqaluit, Nunavut (Oct 15) - open seat
John Graham: 953 (71%)
Allen Hayward: 204 (15%)
Noah Ooloonie Papatsie: 184 (14%)


Yellowknife, NWT (Oct 15) - open seat
Mark Heyck: 2008
Tim Doyle: 1465
Paul Falvo: 816

Whitehorse, Yukon (Oct 18) - open seat
Dan CURTIS   2375 (43 %)   
Rick KARP   1100 (20 %)   
Bernie PHILLIPS   988 (18 %)   
Scottie HOWELL   587 (11 %)   
Mandeep SIDHU   480 (9 %)   

Saskatchewan will hold elections on Wednesday (Oct 24). PEI is on November 5 (small municipalities though). RMs in Saskatchewan (odd numbered) are on Nov 7 while Hamlets in Nunavut go Dec 3 and in NWT on Dec 10.

I suppose so. That part of Dartmouth is a safe NDP seat. So it would make sense that those people would vote for an NDP'er in all but name if they were pissed at the NDP.

Anything interesting that you want to comment on from last night?

Otherwise,

Focus is now on Saskatchewan.

Most interesting race will be Regina, as it is an open seat.

Leading candidates (most recent poll numbers):

Michael Fougere (30%)
Marian Donnelly (17%)
Meka Okochi (15%) - really interesting candidate. Is an immigrant from Nigeria who is running a really good campaign.
Liz Brass (4%)

Fougere appears to be the right wing candidate while the left is split between Donnelly and Okochi.

2009 maps - colours are based on the campaign colour

Regina

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Fiacco's worst ward (the lightest green) had a turnout of 14% :P

Saskatoon
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Atchison was the right wing candidate and Swystun on the left. Map shows traditional voting patterns.

Just to point out a mistake I made. Jackie Barkhouse, who I had previously reported as defeated, squeaked out a tiny victory on the last poll.

Great review guys.

So whats Halifax council look like this term? More or less unchanged, more right-wing, more left-wing? With Savage (a liberal so more moderate-progressive one can assume) and with the just mentioned lefty win by Barkhouse in a rural ward... is council more left this term?

Is Saskatoon expected to be a sleeper with it not being an open seat?

Is it expected that one of the Left candidates in Regina (Donnelly or Okochi) will drop to endorse the other?

Savage is a left-Liberal, I think. He was big in the anti-poverty movement. My United Church minister (big time NDPer) gave him praise, and actually seemed upset when he lost (even to an NDPer) in 2011.

Regina will be an interesting race, but with the election on Wednesday, I can't see any of the candidates dropping out. Even if one did, it probably wouldn't be enough to beat Fougere.

I haven't taken a good look at Saskatoon yet, but I am disturbed that their right wing mayor's campaign slogan is "For a Progressive Saskatoon". Does that mean his main opponent is even further right?

"Progressive" can be a euphemism for "business friendly", you know.

Race in Saskatoon will be close

Latest poll (from Friday)

Mayor Don Atchison - 38%
Tom Wolf - 32%

Atchison is kind of a whacky right wing mayor. Rick Mercer dubbed him Canada's craziest mayor (must have been before Rob Ford came along - but then again we had Larry O'Brien at the time) Wolf appears to be a pragmatic centrist if not slightly left of centre. He has no political experience though, and he is a public servant.

Considering the next best candidate was polling at 1%, Wolf must be the candidate the left is rallying behind in Saskatoon.

New Democrats should watch the mayoral race in Moose Jaw. Former MLA Deb Higgins is running there.

here's my write-up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/10/saskatchewan-municipal-elections-2012.html

As expected, Savage wins every district.  Obviously, Savage did the best in the Dartmouth & Cole Harbour areas. Map coming soon.

Here it is: ()

The advance poll was the first to report and shows Fougere with narrow lead in Regina

Good, as the advance polls usually leans to the right.

Well, I think it was the advance poll. It said 0 polls reporting. Now there is 1 poll reporting, and Fougere has jumped to a 900 vote lead. Nothing in from Saskatoon yet.

Don Atchison is re-elected in Saskatoon :( Election was really close:

Don ATCHISON 34489
Tom WOLF 31085
Clay MAZURKEWICH 605

Regina is slow to come in but, it looks like Fougere is sure to win
12/32 polls

FOUGERE, Michael 8794 Votes (45.0%)
DONNELLY, Marian 5630 Votes (28.8%)
OKOCHI, Meka 3353 Votes (17.2%)
BRASS, Dr. Liz 1126 Votes (5.8%)
ELLIOTT, Jim 184 Votes (0.9%)
NOVAK, Chad 179 Votes (0.9%)
WIEBE, Charles 130 Votes (0.7%)
SIEKAWITCH, Tim 81 Votes (0.4%)
BROWN, Tom 67 Votes (0.3%)

Upset in Prince Albert as Mayor Jim Scarrow is defeated. No idea what's happening in Moose Jaw yet.

One good thing tonight was that former NDP MLA Deb Higgins was elected mayor of Moose Jaw (apparently the first woman mayor of the city). The city also rejected adopting a ward system by referendum :( 

Final Regina results

Michael Fougere, 21,685 votes (43 per cent).
Marian Donnelly, 16,240 votes (32 per cent).
Meka Okochi, 8,960 votes (18 per cent).
Liz Brass, 2,616 (5 per cent)
Jim Elliott, 481 (0.9 per cent)
Chad Novak, 413 (0.8 per cent)
Charles Wiebe, 341 (0.7 per cent)
Tim Siekawitch, 195 (0.4 per cent)
Tom Brown, 172 (0.3 per cent

Prince Albert
Dionne, Greg   4205
Link, Dean   832
Scarrow, Jim (X) 3129

Moose Jaw
Deb Higgins (5,239 votes)
Fraser Tolmie (4,645 votes)

Saskatoon results by ward

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Even split 5 wards a piece. I used the campaign colours, that's why the right wing candidate is in red and the left wing in blue. The furthest west ward (Ward 3) had a difference of 28 votes.

Regina

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Fougere's best ward was his home ward where he got 58.5%. It's also probably the most right wing ward in the city, so...

Donnelly wins three wards, breaking 50% in Ward 3 which is the inner city. She also wins Ward 6 which had horrible turnout for some reason.

Okochi didn't win any wards. His vote distribution was relatively even peaking at 21% in ward 10 (far north end) and was the lowest in ward 4 where he got 16% (Fougere's ward in the Southeast).  Since Okochi's vote totals were so even, it's safe to say that his candidacy wasn't particularly ideological.