Talk Elections

DAY 1:

USA

2-way: 47.4% Romney, 46.0% Obama
5-way: 45.8% Romney, 44.6% Obama, 2.0% Johnson, 0.9% Stein, 0.2% Goode

The new three-day rolling average of 1,076 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 28.1% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,076 is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

FLORIDA

2-way: 48.4% Romney, 46.7% Obama
5-way: 47.5% Romney, 46.2% Obama, 1.6% Johnson, 0.8% Stein, 0.2% Goode

The new three-day rolling average of 827 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

OHIO

2-way: 49.5% Obama, 45.9% Romney
5-way: 48.2% Obama, 44.0% Romney, 2.6% Johnson, 1.3% Stein, 0.7% Goode

The new three-day rolling average of 827 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 16.9% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28.1% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

VIRGINIA

2-way: 48.4% Obama, 47.1% Romney
5-way: 48.1% Obama, 46.0% Romney, 1.1% Goode, 0.9% Johnson, 0.5% Stein

The new three-day rolling average of 827 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

http://www.jzanalytics.com

weird numbers with Romney leading PV and Obama leading in Ohio and Virginia.

It could be true if Obama is not doing so well in his "safe" states and Romney doing better in his "safe" southern and western states.

Especially if Obama is only ahead by 15 or so in CA and in MA ...

No!!!!!!!!! Make it stop!

NO MORE TRACKERS!!!!

The numbers seem to be about right. The pollster doesn't.

I'm worried that there isn't enough time left in the campaign for Zogby to show insane results.

We needed some comic relief. 

Zogby + Internet polling + Newsmax, all bundled together.

What more really needs to be said?

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Don't worry! - Planet Z is not subject to the same laws of physics as other parts of the known Universe.

Plenty of time for crazy and insane results.

I am living on Channel Zzzzzzzzzzzzz...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6BpPx05YyQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6BpPx05YyQ)

Zogby's polls can probably be thrown right in the trash.  Their final poll had Kerry winning Tennessee, Arkansas and Colarado while losing Ohio by six points. 

In the past Zogby polls have been a joke. This season (mostly) they seem not too crazy, but you dont know if it is the broken clock effect or are they actually getting better.

wow, I thought that poll was a myth. But sure enough, it's on the RCP archives. Kerry leads by 1.9 in August 2004! Did they only poll Nashville?

DAY 2:

USA

2-way: 47.1% Romney, 45.9% Obama
5-way: 45.2% Romney, 44.9% Obama, 2.2% Johnson, 1.0% Stein, 0.8% Goode

FLORIDA

2-way: 48.0% Obama, 47.0% Romney
5-way: 47.4% Obama, 46.7% Romney, 1.7% Johnson, 0.4% Stein, 0.0% Goode

OHIO

2-way: 48.9% Obama, 45.2% Romney
5-way: 46.8% Obama, 43.6% Romney, 2.5% Johnson, 1.4% Stein, 1.3% Goode

VIRGINIA

2-way: 48.8% Romney, 45.1% Obama
5-way: 47.4% Romney, 45.3% Obama, 1.2% Goode, 1.1% Johnson, 0.3% Stein

http://www.jzanalytics.com

I think Zogby was "ahead of his time" in trying to do online polls for elections as far back as 2004 when that methodology was still in its infancy and the online panels had all kinds of skews. Its now 2012 and the online panels are vastly better and more reliable - so i don't think there is any reason to believe Zogby is less reliable this year than anyone else doing online polls

Zogby was okay in 2008 wasn't it?

It's only day 2 and we're all over the place, Obama moving ahead in Florida, but taking a big drop in Virginia, nice work Zogby

I think you can see the effects of the hurricane on NOVA in their VA results from yesterday.

Zogby was on par with Gallup ... make of that what you will.

Sandy?

All over the place in 2008. One day they would have Obama up 12, then he would fall to just being up four the next day.  

Their final national poll had Obama up 54%-43%.  

Zogby's "fun and games" in 2004 with the fake polls based upon leaked exit poll results was such a black mark that he simply cannot ever been forgiven.

I don't care if it was 8 years ago or 108 years ago.  the man has no honour.

Is this all internet based polls? Zogby used to flood my inbox with this crap

and to all of my email accounts as well. I could've given 4 votes to romney if I actually cared to fill out his surveys. How is that the least bit accurate?

If this was by a pollster with a better track record, this would be amazing evidence for the likelyhood of a ev/pv split.

I was thinking this might end up alright, but after the sizable second day swings, probably not.

That was your first mistake.

Not terrible, but still way off.  It went from a total joke to third rate. 

Day 3 (10/28-10/30):

Florida: Obama 47.7% (-0.3%), Romney 47.4% (+0.4%)
Ohio: Obama 50.4% (+1.5%), Romney 44.3% (-0.9%)
Virginia: Romney 47.8% (-1.0%), Obama 46.7% (+1.6%)

National: Romney 48.3% (+1.2%), Obama 45.1% (-0.8%)

lol

I'm really surprised you guys would sticky Zogby polls, kinda sad reflection.

These swings are ridiculous.

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Day 4:

47% Obama (+2)
47% Romney (-1)

47% Obama (+2)
46% Romney (-1)
  2% Johnson (nc)
  1% Goode (nc)
  1% Stein (nc)

Numbers for FL, OH, VA not yet posted.

Obamamentum.

FL/OH/VA still not posted. Did Zogby get bored with polling them? Or were his results to embarrassingly crazy, even for him?

Day 5:

48-46 Obama/Romney (+1, -1)

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/zogby-obama-romney-poll/2012/11/02/id/462507

Obama/Sandymentum !

It does your side very little good to actively attribute Obama's gains to Sandy. He's probably going to win anyway, but you're just giving us an excuse to blame Romney's loss on the storm. If that's the path y'all want to go down, fine.

"It was Sandy's fault."

That's what Cliffi, Politico (when he comes back), Winfield, Dirks and you will say when Romney loses, anyway.

All Sandy did was at most close Romney's last possible door. The fact that Romney was still standing outside before that is far more of an idictment of him and his campaign then anything with regards to the impact of the storm, which basically just froze things in place, possibly gave a Obama a small bounce. Romney needed to bounce back in the last week in the state by state polling this week to have a chance.

I think looking back, what sealed the deal was Romney's flawed strategy in the second debate and his failure to put away the Auto issue at the beginning of the season (preferrably back in or before the primary season too), which is what blocked him off in Ohio. With OH not there for him, his balloon began to wilt costing him VA and possibly FL as well as his chances to get NH, IA, CO, and/or WI which were all on the table after the first debate, or seriously compete in MI, MN or PA. Just ceding the Hispanic vote to Obama overall cost Romney NV and NM and made CO that much more difficult, as well as putting AZ on verge of at risk. Angering the Paulites, rather than bringing them to the table hurt in NV, NM, CO, IA and NH. Going too far to try and outmauevered Rick and Newt made him just as bad to many of the same swing voters, for which initially he was a more palatable choice to, as they were. 

Romney will probably do better in the popular vote and the electoral college then John McCain. He will probably have done a better job rallying base of off opposition to Obama, who scares the hell out of both factions of the GOP base, then McCain did off of support and love for Palin who one part of the base loved and the other part were scared by. He will have done a better job in terms of organizing both on the ground in general and in the early vote, raising money, and socking it to Obama (even when the facts were tenuous at best). However, when your standard of comparison is a 7% PV loss and a near 2-1 rout in the electoral college, just "doing better" isn't enough.

A mismanaged Presidential campaign and a basketfull of not ready for primetime Senate candidates, turned what should have been the year Republicans finished the job, and instead possibly put the party all the way back to 2009. The irony is that the GOP did get some good picks, but in states that the toplines preclude like CT, PA, and NM. A bunch of bad picks in swing states (unlike in a 2010 where all the swing state picks turned out to be great save for out west, even the TP backed swing state candidates like Toomey and Rubio could have a case to be made that they did more to help the GOP then hurt them in some way) and some even worse picks in the GOP territory have created a situation where just breaking even would be a miracle, when gains approaching double digits were plausible going in.

Part of the problem for the GOP is that it relied on short term fundamentals, like the cyclical conditions of the economy and popular opposition to a key piece of the Democratic agenda to base their success off of, rather than trying to play on a longer term paradigm. Things were heading in the right direction in 2009, where things got off track again was when victory just fell into the hands of the GOP in 2010.

What is worrisome is what will come to follow. You will have the "enlightened" establishment arguing for the emasculation of the base and the base for the execution of the establishment. Both will be nearly completely wrong in proscribing in their treatment of the other.

Only if that's what some Obamatons are actually attributing his win to, as Tender seemed to do.

In all honesty, I already blame Romney's ultimate loss on two things: his poor showing in the second debate, and Rick Santorum's overblown religiosity in the primaries.

How did the latter hurt Romney in this general election? Forced Romney too far to the right on social issues? In fairness Huckabee and the religious right wing already did that 4 years ago.

I think the the whole Catholic-contraceptives-Obamacare thing really sunk Romney with women in an unrecoverable kind of way. Had Santorum not made that issue the focus of the campaign, I expect things would have looked quite a bit different.

zogby sunday

Obama: 47
Romney: 47

Romney leads Indies by 12

Wonderful!  Oh, wait ....

Latest numbers:

USA

2-way: 48-46 Romney/Obama
5-way: 47-45-2-1-1 Romney/Obama/Johnson/Stein/Goode

FL

2-way: 50-45 Obama/Romney
5-way: 49-45-1-1-0 Obama/Romney/Stein/Johnson/Goode

OH

2-way: 50-44 Obama/Romney
5-way: 49-43-2-1-1 Obama/Romney/Johnson/Stein/Goode

VA

2-way: 52-44 Obama/Romney
5-way: 50-42-2-0-0 Obama/Romney/Johnson/Stein/Goode

http://www.jzanalytics.com

Isn't it virtually impossible to trail nationwide by 2 and be ahead by 5-8 in FLOHVA ?

I guess this is because it's ZOGBY ... :P

I knew if we were patient, Zogby would pull through with something crazy. He knows his audience.

Not only that but he had a 6-point national swing in three days. These polls are worthless.

Romney's best national poll result is from Zogby LOL

Obama with huge leads in FL, OH and VA but down nationally by 2? Uhhh, is Zogby drunk?

Statewide polls arent good. they can poll states like texas,utah and all other GOP states over and over. State polls are more believeable.

I said early on that maybe Zogby was coming in from the cold and maybe getting reasonable rational polling. But the wild swings of these tracking polls show that really he is still in dartboard territory.