Title: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 04, 2012, 02:01:59 AM
2012 President:
AL: 61-38 Romney
AK: 61-34 Romney
AZ: 53-44 Romney
AR: 60-38 Romney
CA: 58-39 Obama
CO: 50-47 Obama
CT: 56-42 Obama
DE: 57-41 Obama
DC: 91-8 Obama
FL: 50-49 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
GA: 52-46 Romney
HI: 67-32 Obama
ID: 68-29 Romney
IL: 58-40 Obama
IN: 55-44 Romney
IA: 50-48 Obama
KS: 58-41 Romney
KY: 58-41 Romney
LA: 59-40 Romney
ME: 55-44 Obama (ME-02: 51-47 Obama)
MD: 60-38 Obama
MA: 58-39 Obama (Stein: 2%)
MI: 53-45 Obama
MN: 53-45 Obama
MS: 57-42 Romney
MO: 53-46 Romney
MT: 52-44 Romney
NE: 58-41 Romney (NE-02: 53-45 Romney)
NV: 52-44 Obama
NH: 51-47 Obama
NJ: 57-41 Obama
NM: 51-41 Obama (Johnson: 7%)
NY: 60-38 Obama
NC: 50-48 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
ND: 57-41 Romney
OH: 51-47 Obama
OK: 67-33 Romney
OR: 54-44 Obama
PA: 53-46 Obama
RI: 60-39 Obama
SC: 54-45 Romney
SD: 55-44 Romney
TN: 58-40 Romney
TX: 58-41 Romney
UT: 74-22 Romney (Anderson: 2%)
VT: 63-35 Obama
VA: 50-47 Obama (Goode: 2%)
WA: 56-42 Obama
WV: 56-42 Romney
WI: 51-47 Obama
WY: 65-34 Romney
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Later:
Senate, Governors & House.
AL: 61-38 Romney
AK: 61-34 Romney
AZ: 53-44 Romney
AR: 60-38 Romney
CA: 58-39 Obama
CO: 50-47 Obama
CT: 56-42 Obama
DE: 57-41 Obama
DC: 91-8 Obama
FL: 50-49 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
GA: 52-46 Romney
HI: 67-32 Obama
ID: 68-29 Romney
IL: 58-40 Obama
IN: 55-44 Romney
IA: 50-48 Obama
KS: 58-41 Romney
KY: 58-41 Romney
LA: 59-40 Romney
ME: 55-44 Obama (ME-02: 51-47 Obama)
MD: 60-38 Obama
MA: 58-39 Obama (Stein: 2%)
MI: 53-45 Obama
MN: 53-45 Obama
MS: 57-42 Romney
MO: 53-46 Romney
MT: 52-44 Romney
NE: 58-41 Romney (NE-02: 53-45 Romney)
NV: 52-44 Obama
NH: 51-47 Obama
NJ: 57-41 Obama
NM: 51-41 Obama (Johnson: 7%)
NY: 60-38 Obama
NC: 50-48 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
ND: 57-41 Romney
OH: 51-47 Obama
OK: 67-33 Romney
OR: 54-44 Obama
PA: 53-46 Obama
RI: 60-39 Obama
SC: 54-45 Romney
SD: 55-44 Romney
TN: 58-40 Romney
TX: 58-41 Romney
UT: 74-22 Romney (Anderson: 2%)
VT: 63-35 Obama
VA: 50-47 Obama (Goode: 2%)
WA: 56-42 Obama
WV: 56-42 Romney
WI: 51-47 Obama
WY: 65-34 Romney
(
Later:
Senate, Governors & House.
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 04, 2012, 02:11:55 AM
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:
50.4% Obama
47.3% Romney
0.8% Johnson
0.6% Stein
0.3% Goode
0.2% Anderson
0.4% Others
Turnout: 136.3 million (56.6% of the VAP "voting age population")
50.4% Obama
47.3% Romney
0.8% Johnson
0.6% Stein
0.3% Goode
0.2% Anderson
0.4% Others
Turnout: 136.3 million (56.6% of the VAP "voting age population")
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on November 04, 2012, 02:22:17 AM
State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 04, 2012, 02:23:37 AM
State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.
Of course all of this will be revised up until Monday evening. I'll probably "up" WI a bit for Obama if the final polls are out.
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 04, 2012, 02:27:28 AM
Only a little unsure about CO. Otherwise, this looks pretty good. Good luck, Tender!
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2012, 06:34:02 AM
I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. :)
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 04, 2012, 06:34:52 AM
I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama. :)
Ahh, thx.
Will correct that ... ;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2012, 02:29:52 AM
Updated Presidential #s ...
Senate:
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1577
I'm not sure about MT and ND though. One or both of those could be won by the GOP.
But let's stay optimistic ... ;)
Senate:
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1577
I'm not sure about MT and ND though. One or both of those could be won by the GOP.
But let's stay optimistic ... ;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2012, 02:34:26 AM
Governors:
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=557
Not sure about MT, this could go either way.
NH will probably elect Maggie Hassan by a small margin.
Inslee and McCrory should probably win by 5 (Inslee) to about 9-10 (McCrory).
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=557
Not sure about MT, this could go either way.
NH will probably elect Maggie Hassan by a small margin.
Inslee and McCrory should probably win by 5 (Inslee) to about 9-10 (McCrory).
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2012, 02:36:06 AM
House:
I'm not going to do individual seats, but my guess is that the Dems gain slightly.
But when all is counted, it will still be 226-209 for the Republicans.
I'm not going to do individual seats, but my guess is that the Dems gain slightly.
But when all is counted, it will still be 226-209 for the Republicans.
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2012, 02:39:03 AM
SSM referendums and CA death penalty and CO grass:
WA: 53-47 pro SSM
MN: 51-49 against the hetero marriage amendment
MD: 52-48 pro SSM
ME: 53-47 pro SSM
CA: 52-48 for the abolition of the death penalty
CO: 51-49 against marihuana
WA: 53-47 pro SSM
MN: 51-49 against the hetero marriage amendment
MD: 52-48 pro SSM
ME: 53-47 pro SSM
CA: 52-48 for the abolition of the death penalty
CO: 51-49 against marihuana
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2012, 02:44:21 AM
If you see any flaws in my numbers/maps that is not matching up, please tell me ... ;)
Title: Re: Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread
Post by: LiberalJunkie on November 05, 2012, 04:08:52 AM
Heres the swing map for your prediction.
(
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Also the popular vote:
50.4% Obama 68,695,200
47.3% Romney 64,469,900
0.8% Johnson 1,090,400
0.6% Stein 817,800
0.3% Goode 408,900
0.2% Anderson 272,600
0.4% Others 545,200
Turnout: 136.3 million
Just for fun :P
(
Also the popular vote:
50.4% Obama 68,695,200
47.3% Romney 64,469,900
0.8% Johnson 1,090,400
0.6% Stein 817,800
0.3% Goode 408,900
0.2% Anderson 272,600
0.4% Others 545,200
Turnout: 136.3 million
Just for fun :P