Talk Elections

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Thanks! Extremely predictable, but interesting nonetheless. It's amazing how diverse the North side of Bartlett and Cordova have become. What's up with that strong Obama area near Macon and Houston Levee? Wouldn't expect it to be majority black out there.

Is Germantown a particularly rich tea party not IMBY(referring to blacks of course) suburb?

Germantown is the richest town in the whole metro area. Country club kind of place. They are notorious for their extremely picky zoning and sign laws. They will come and get you if your grass is an inch too high or you leave your garage door open, etc.  Quite a few horses live out there also. Not exclusively uber rich. There are a few apartment complexes and some only slightly large homes, but plenty of obscene wealth as well. The eastern side of Germantown is newer and particularly extravagant. I find a lot of the ginormous houses in poor taste, but I'm certainly not going to be in the market for million dollar real estate anyway. Police don't have much to do, so they are notorious for their speed traps. If you are a black who drives an old GM product, I'd advise avoiding Germantown altogether. By far, the places with the highest concentration of blacks are the public schools. Many white people prefer to go the private route, and Shelby County Schools is still forced by the courts to draw crazy district lines for the purposes of integration. As a result Germantown High School is majority, though not overwhelmingly, black. The parts of Memphis just west of Germantown are very fancy as well, without the oppressive police state.

So what happens if you refuse to cut your grass... or at least keep it at the specified length? Would you get fined? and then if you refuse to pay the fines, get arrested? lololol

All towns around here have ordinances regarding grass. It's a property maintenance issue and a public health issue as wildly overgrown grass encourages snakes and rodents and other nasty critters. Germantown, however, takes it to an extreme and will cite you for just slightly overgrown grass. It's similar to a parking ticket. Small fine at first with increasingly penalties for serial noncompliance. Most neighborhoods in Germantown also have active neighborhood associations, each with their own rules. Common no-nos at that level include things that are perceived to hurt property values like renting your home or putting up a chain link fence around your yard. The neighborhood associations can go to court and get a lien against your property if you refuse to follow the rules. They also have rather pricy dues, which must be paid each year above the county and municipal property taxes. Some, but not all, will also have a neighborhood clubhouse, pool, tennis court, gym etc. that is part of the package, but you must join the association and follow the rules if you own a property in the neighborhood. Did I mention that these people are 100% dyed in the wool "small gov't" Republicans?

Do you have a racial breakdown.  I somehow suspect most of the Obama precincts are either majority African-American or at least over 40% African-American.  A college campus is the only area I could see him winning where it is over 60% white.

The white liberal area is Midtown. The pale red in the center of the west part of the 240 loop. Lots of pretty early 20th century homes, many quite large and fancy. Plenty of young people in aging apartments as well. Quite a diverse area economically. It is common there to have a few blocks of million dollar homes next to blocks of genuinely shady low rent properties. White people, especially those with money, live along Poplar Avenue, which cuts through town out to the elite suburbs of Germantown and Collierville. As you can see by the deep red color, blacks live on the north and south sides of town, most of which are not pleasant places at all. The far SE is home to many higher income blacks, although many of them prefer to live in majority white neighborhoods also.

Ah good ole Memphis! I grew up there. Interesting to see this, and I agree it's very predictable.  Do you have any other election years for Shelby County?

The South side of Memphis should move across the border and take over Mississippi

Moving all the county to Mississippi would cut Romney's margin there by two thirds. ;D

Using only the continuous D precincts, would that actually flip the state?

I'd love to see a breakdown of precincts for Desoto County, MS especially those bordering Shelby. Oh the irony, I'm sure.

Wow I hear complaints of "big government" over silly things, but this really sounds like big government in action. No one cares when anyone in my house cuts the grass, and it's none of their business anyway.

Almost certainly. It would also bring the races into parity. Almost. It would also make for a very funny looking state :P

If you simply put Shelby County in Mississippi, Romney still wins the state 51/48, but with a difference of only 51K votes. Wow! So if you were to take that a step further and only include the Dem vote from Shelby Co., Obama would win MS by 84K votes. So, somewhere in between that would yield the shock of the century, hypothetically.

Interestingly enough, The vote from TN without Shelby Co actually didn't change as much as I thought. Without Shelby, TN would be 64/35 Romney. I thought it would be more like 72% Romney.

Two points:
1. It wouldn't be the shock of the century. It would be a well known fact that Greater Mississippi would be a swing state.
2. You greatly overestimate the percent of TN that lives in Shelby County if you think we can swing the state that much. We're only about 15% of the state, and dropping every day.

A precinct breakdown for Desoto would be interesting, as Desoto isn't monolithic.  When you drive into Memphis from Desoto , it's certainly not obvious.  Minorities do move to the suburbs too.  The demographic shifts  in many metro Atlanta counties over the decades have been almost comical, and while Memphis doesn't have anywhere near the growth as Atlanta, demographic shift could still occur beyond the city limits.

Local paper did an article about the precinct level results.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2012/dec/31/presidential-vote-by-precinct-reveals-shelby-of/
Most important part
WSMS is my precinct.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/

Check out this cool demographic map of the US. One thing that stood out concerning this region is that there is a precinct in Shelby County that is 95% black sitting right next to a precinct in DeSoto across the state line that's 80% white! Almost the entire southern border of Shelby is like that- majority black precincts in Memphis bordering majority white precincts in Mississippi just a few feet away. It's similar to 8 Mile Road in Detroit. You don't see that very often anymore.

This is in the cluster of R60 precincts about the 240 sign on the map, isn't it? So the other precincts around vote similarly but are just in the 80s for White population?

This is absolutely true. The white people in Memphis live along Poplar Avenue/Highway 72, which runs through the center of town. All those areas just on the TN side of the state line used to be white flight suburbs 30 years ago. Those folks have since moved right across the state line into MS. DeSoto is very much a hunting/fishing/pickup truck/confederate flag kind of place, though the eastern side is nicer than the western side. The black population has been increasing pretty fast down there though. The mayor of Southaven has also been good for a great deal of lulz lately.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQDI9VsHxB4
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Davis_(Mississippi_politician)#Expense_abuse_investigation

Right. We're just inside the loop. You'll see that the shield on Don's map is just below a major road (Walnut Grove). We are north of that and north of the small pricinct boundary line just above that. It's rather surprising because the areas on the other side of Walnut Grove are much fancier. See my post on the most expensive house thread for comparison. I bet they have just enough Asians to lose the 90% white designation :P

Or Mexican live-in domestic servants. ;D

Not a popular thing here, even among the super wealthy. People in Memphis are obsessed with crime, security, and privacy. The idea of having a live in servant, especially one of a different race, simply would not compute.

Though Obama won 4 precincts that were 76 to 82% white (handedly too), and won a fifth of white majority precincts overall.

Does the Shelby County, TN results map mirror the "Black/White" divide of the county?

Yes, to varying extents.  The lighter (50-60% Obama) red precincts in the center of the map (Midtown) are almost as white as the Romney precincts, but all of the 60%+ Obama precincts are overwhelmingly black.  The Obama precincts out east are majority white, but there are some African-Americans moving into those areas which swung those precincts to Obama.

I'm still mystified by those two Obama precincts in the eastern part of the county, just south of Lakeland. Are things "changing" that much out there? Going "downhill"? I wouldn't be surprised if the election people just bungled the results :P