Talk Elections

With the 2012 cycle behind us, it's time to start focusing on what is looking like (for now, at least) an uphill battle for Governor Corbett.

He's ending 2012 with dismal ratings (PPP has his approval in the mid 30s). To add insult to injury, Corbett isn't exactly loved by the base because of his involvement in some party matters. The real potential problem/wild card is newly elected Attorney General Kathleen Kane. She is the first Democrat to hold the office and campaigned on investigating the Sandusky scandal even further. Since Corbett was Attorney General from 2005-2011, questions are being asked as to why more wasn't done on his watch.

Will Kane go after him? Will he bother to run for re-election? If he does, will he lose the primary? The buzz in Republican circles isn't about whether or not he'll get a challenge but who will do it and how serious will it be? Businessman Scott Wagner is all but officially in the race. Will a bigger name step forward? If Corbett survives all of this, will he still be able to survive his re-election battle? Several big name Dems - former Congressman Sestak, State Treasurer Rob McCord, Auditor General Jack Wagner, Senator Casey (some think he will take the plunge in two years instead of waiting for the safer bet in 2018) - are considering a bid but will they be strong enough to break the eight year pattern?

Stay tuned. This one will be interesting.

Besides the Sandusky situation, what else has Corbett done to become the most endangered incumbent, surpassing even Scott and Kasich?

Also, is there any chance for the legislature to be in play? I know that they gerrymandered the hell out of it but Democrats still had record gains in the senate. Was it just because of Obama's coattails or have they become so unpopular that Republicans are in danger of losing their majorities?

The Democrats currently have a handful of extra seats due to malapportionment. They will lose them next cycle.

Corbett's budget cuts really created an uproar and, as I noted, the base has never been too thrilled with Corbett. He pissed off a lot of activists this year with state party endorsements.

The Legislature isn't in play. The Dems had a ton of things break their way in Senate races (retirements by popular Republican incumbents in Dem areas) yet the GOP still has a 27-23 majority. The House will stay in Republican hands, too, unless we see a 2006/2008 environment. Plus, due to our redistricting fiasco, everyone ran in the 2002 districts again. That won't be the case in 2014. Obama had little to nothing to do with dragging Democrats across the finish line in those pick ups.

The paradox for Bob Casey and why he might go now, rather than later is the risk that some other Democrat were to nab Corbett now. If that happened, 2018 goes from being the safe play to the nonexistant play. The weaker Corbett looks, the more likely Casey runs now rather than later.

Well, yes, but for someone as cautious as Casey, the eight year pattern looms large. He won't lose a job by running in 2014 but if he loses the General (or even the primary!) then that's two defeats in Gubernatorial races. That would seriously weaken him.

Corbett certainly has no bipartisan support, and the Dems are itching to send him out. I hope the party will look to Joe Sestak, whose loss shouldn't be of concern considering the climate in which he ran. Jack Wagner is not an exciting candidate at all, but is a safe run, I suppose. There's a 0% chance I would vote for Casey if the Dems ran him and if I have the spare time and am still in the area I may even jump on a third party campaign if there is one.

Wagner is certainly the safest bet but he'd have the primary problem.

The reason why I don't take Sestak too seriously is because he just doesn't come across as an executive. That and because I see him as more of a federal issues kind of politician (exactly why I've always laughed off Schwartz running for Governor).

The Wikipedia page has Josh Shapiro up there. He's a little too young imo and not very well known yet, but I actually watched an Eagles game with him. Cool guy.

He won't do it in 2014. Maybe 2018 as a Casey primary challenger. The base loves him but he's another one that doesn't rock the boat. If, for whatever reason, Casey doesn't run in 2018, look for Shapiro to run. He's most likely to take on Toomey in 2016 though. That should be a good race.

Since we were talking about the Legislature earlier...

The final House race has been called for the Republican incumbent. Saccone was the top Dem target of 2012. He beat a twelve term incumbent in 2010 by 151 votes. The former Representative sought a rematch. This time, it was even closer but Saccone won by 114 votes. This means the composition of the House remains the same: 112 Republicans to 91 Dems.

Not to jinx it but good luck netting eleven seats in 2014, Dems. :P

You have to remember that the 2014 Senate cycle is the same one that was up in 2010, when Republicans pretty much won every seat they possibly could.  They have at least one really vulnerable seat in heavily Democratic Lower Bucks that should clearly be in Democratic hands.  At least one other SEPA Republican seat has got to be in danger. 

Demographics sometimes don't understand from gerrymanders. New York Republicans thought they had locked up the senate for another decade but look what happened last week.

Same with Democrats in Arkansas this year and in Alabama in 2001. 

1) That seat isn't heavily Democratic.

2) It isn't going anywhere as long as Tomlinson runs for re-election so, no, it isn't in danger. Not to sound hostile but don't say something should "clearly" belong to one party when you don't have a clue about other factors in the race.

2014 could be Tomlinson's last race. When he goes, yes, I'll admit it will be tough to hold but we aren't at that point.

How's that mayor of Allentown doing?

He's been floated as a potential candidate. Don't know much about him but he could emerge as a dark horse.

That seat is heavily Democratic.  It includes the most Democratic part of Bucks county(the lower part) and probably gave Obama close to 60% of the vote in 2008 and 2012 and even went for John Kerry and Al Gore solidly.  Tomlinson himself likely wont lose, but once that seat opens up , it will likely fall into Dem hands.  Kind of the opposite of the Wozniak seat in  SWPA. 

Ok no offense but it doesn't necessarily work that way. You're thinking national results translate into easy wins at a more local level. That isn't the case there. Yes, the Dems have made serious inroads especially in lower Bucks (Bensalem, the township right across the street from me, is a classic example thanks to an increased minority presence) but the Bucks GOP is very strong at the state and local level. Again, when Tomlinson goes, it will certainly be competitive and probably Dem favored but it isn't a slam dunk. As long as Tommy is there, it's fine for us.

Which Allegheny Senate Democrat is out of a seat under the latest map? I presume Costa survives.

I was pretty sure that the map passed was going to eliminate the seat of the Republican who had to resign and go to jail.

Technically.

http://senatorpileggi.com/PDF/redistricting/060812/FinalSenate2012MapWithZooms.pdf


Looks like they renumbered 40 to 38, and pushed 40 east. 15 and 37 will likely go back to the GOP next election as both acquired new GOP territory.

I have a feeling that Corbett won't run again, and even if he does, he'll lose in the primary.  I hope maybe Bill Scranton III may run, or maybe some high-profile Republican legislator.  I would hate to see Pennsylvania break the tradition of changing party control every eight years.

New Quinnipiac poll out today: Corbett approval at 40%, disapproval at 38%. I expected it to be a little worse.

I expected his approvals to rise a little, so not surprised. He's still very vulnerable (moreso than any Republican governor besides Rick Scott and Paul LePage).

But I just made this map of the PA Attorney General race this year, and:

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It doesn't show, but Kathleen Kane killed in places like Fayette County and did well in the "T" overall, despite only doing slightly better than Obama and Casey in the Philly suburbs. Though she may not want to (she was just elected AG), she'd be potent against Corbett if she chose to run.

Looks like she did well in SWPA too, though could be wrong.

Fayette County is SWPA.

She'd be seriously overplaying her hand if she ran in 2014. She did so well this year because of her high profile primary win over a well known opponent (Pat Murphy) while our nominee (a really great, extremelly qualified guy) was unknown thanks, in part, to the lack of a primary. Hell, she even had Bill Clinton come in to campaign for her. That was an "up yours" to Murphy. The Clinton's helped him big time in 2006 only to have Murphy turn around and be one of Obama's biggest cheerleaders two years later. The Clinton's were pretty bitter. Shocker, right? Anyway, Kane had a lot of cash through her primary and into November to hit the air while Freed had one ad towards the very end. It was a very one-sided race so don't think that that result is necessarily indicative of how Kane would do in other races.

Nobody mentioned Jason Altmire on this thread. Thats a shock.

Wouldn't win a primary. I'm not even sure he's interested in running for office again. I could be totally off on that but his name isn't typically floated by the usual suspects.

I think LePage will probably win reelection, though.  He may be vulnerable, but I still think that he'll come out victorious if he runs again.

Wonder if he'll run against Rothfus again. He would've likely won if he were the nominee.

Corbett draws his first opponent: former Secretary of Environmental Protection John Hanger.

The annual Pennsylvania Society gathering in NYC is in two weeks. I'll be sure to report on the rumors that will undoubtably be swirling.

One effect of a partisan gerrymander is that one creates a huge bench for the Other Side. Recent Reps get to run for statewide offices.

It's not Pennsylvania, but just look at one of the unintended consequences of the Indiana state legislature redistricting Rep. Joe Donnelly into an impossible seat. He ran for the Senate, which would have been futile against Dick Lugar -- but the Tea Party ran a successful challenge to Dick Lugar only for that extremist challenger to face a moderate. Donnelly got the usual Democratic votes for Lugar and won.

I don't know whether Joe Sestak would be more interested in the Governorship in 2014 or the US Senate seat in 2016.   

i wonder if Jason Altmire Will Run if he did How good could he do against Corbett

Altmire could win if he ran for Congress in two years. He's probably too conservative to win a statewide nomination.

I was actually working in District 39 until they transferred me to the longshot race up in District 5 in Erie County.

Ouch. I bet they wish they had those additional people in the 39th!

I think they were up pretty strongly with how far off the deepend Saccone is.

PoliticsPA reports that Jason Altmire is not only taking a cushy job but he's leaving the state: he will serve as Senior VP of the Florida chapter of Blue Cross Blue Shield.

I had a feeling he'd float this again and having this come out right before PA Society was done on propose - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-castor-mulling-primary-challenge-to-corbett/44677/ (http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-castor-mulling-primary-challenge-to-corbett/44677/)


For those that don't know, Castor and Corbett have history. Their Attorney General primary in 2004 was especially nasty. Corbett (running as the establishment favorite) won with 53% to Castor's (running as the outsider just like Toomey at the same time) 47%. Castor was the Montco DA at the time. He is now in his second term as a County Commissioner.

“Right now I’m lining up donors, strategists, and grassroots organizers,” he said today, “and today’s announcement will enable me to gauge the support I might have for a run.” - Castor

Allyson Schwartz looks like she might might run.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20121207_Allyson_Schwartz_hires_Democratic_Party_finance_chief_as_she_considers_running_against_Corbett.html

Yeah, Schwartz has been rumored for years though I've never bought it. She's more of a legislative type and federal issues seem to be her thing (even though she spent fourteen years in the State Senate). That said, if she isn't looking to become a major leader in the House then she might do this. She's going to be too old for the Senate in 2016 and 2018.

Speaking of Schwartz for Governor, the big buzz was about her last night at Pennsylvania Society. I actually had a brief "hello" moment with her. :P I had a few minutes with a staffer of hers that I had class with and he wasn't doing the usual coy routine; he seemed very serious so we'll see.

I actually didn't even see the man who was supposed to be the center of attention - Bruce Castor - though he was certainly up there for the weekend.

The latest big news: Casey won't rule out a run in 2014.

Some PA Society partygoers stated Treasurer McCord said he will defer to Schwartz if she wants to run.

Former Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (elected in 2008 and defeated in 2010) is thinking about a run.

Finally, my State Senator - Mike Stack - confirmed that he's considering throwing his hat in the ring. Hahaha...oh my...

Looks like I have to take back something I said: Castor wasn't in NYC. On his Facebook, he stated that he committed to be with his family during this time before all of this talk began and wasn't even asked by the media he'd attend (we all expected you to be there especially with this talk, Bruce). 

He certainly timed his announcement though. He didn't mind everyone talking about him while he wasn't there.

Here's a more surprising development: State Senator Tim Solobay - a Pro Life, Pro Gun "Casey Democrat" - has thrown his hat in the ring. Solobay is from the Southwest and might just benefit from the amount of Southeastern candidates running. This could be interesting.

Schwartz talked for DCCC Finance Chair. Obviously very unlikely to run now.

Castor questions the timing of Corbett's NCAA lawsuit - http://mobile.pennlive.com/advpenn/pm_29239/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=JgEpuIAm (http://mobile.pennlive.com/advpenn/pm_29239/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=JgEpuIAm)

PPP's latest has Corbett with a 38% approval rating (among five most unpopular Governors). Pennsylvanians approve of his NCAA lawsuit but only 27% approve of his handling of the entire Penn State scandal.

Rendell leads Corbett 46% to 40%. He's tied with Kane and leads the rest:

The rest of the Democrats we tested Corbett leads by modest margins. It's 41/38 over Michael Nutter, 41/37 over John Hanger, 42/36 over Joe Sestak, 41/35 over Rob McCord, 41/34 over Allyson Schwartz, and 41/29 over Tom Wolf.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html)

Only lesson Nutter by three? Ouch. Just...ouch.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html#more


Question: are Pennsylvania voters tiring of Tea Party pols? Sure, Republicans won the majority of House seats from Pennsylvania in 2012, but only because of gerrymandering that concentrated D voters in a few ultra-safe seats and left the rest of the state full of R+5 districts.

Tom Corbett cannot gerrymander himself out of the consequences of unpopularity. He is a Hard Right pol in a moderate state.



He would have to win over the doubters to have a chance. He will need miracles to win re-election 22 months from now. That 2014 will be a midterm election might help -- but not enough. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

 

Bob Casey Jr. is likely to run for Governor at some point, it's in his DNA. He would crush Corbett. I dislike Corbett, so I hope someone challenges him in the GOP primary.

Actually the current PA legislature was elected with the heavily Democrat favored lines that gave Democrats extra seats in Allegheny County that they should not have.

In a prelude to a discussion about the lawsuit against the NCAA, ESPN columnist Gregg Easterbrook goes after Corbett on Penn State scandal:

http://espn.go.com/espn/playbook/story/_/id/8822435/russell-wilson-nfl-best-young-quarterback#pennstate

I love the trap pbrower walked into, claiming the GOP wins in the legislature in 2012 were because of the gerrymandering. We maintained the margin we achieved in 2010 under the Dem-favored map.

Corbett leads Castor 55% to 11% but only 45% of Republicans want Corbett as the nominee - http://www.politicspa.com/ppp-poll-corbett-55-castor-11-in-gop-primary/45347/ (http://www.politicspa.com/ppp-poll-corbett-55-castor-11-in-gop-primary/45347/)

Only 54% of Republicans approve of Corbett's job performance. Corbett's highest numbers are with conservative and very conservative Republicans (and lowest with moderate to liberal Republicans) but that doesn't catch the serious anger the grassroots conservative activists feel towards the Governor.

Oh boy, I should be following this more.  Of the potential or declared candidates, are there any that stand out as genuine progressives?

Sestak is the closest. Hanger is, too, but he isn't a top candidate.

The PA Democratic party is generally fairly moderate compared to other state parties, and usually focuses on "bread and butter" issues. Sestak is your best bet for a "progressive" who can actually win the primary and the general.

Ah god.  Sestak is a prick.  I never understood why the PA Democratic Party is so centrist.

It can be fairly liberal (in a populist sort of way) on economic issues. But the state party's traditional base (and a good chunk of its supporters even today) are culturally conservative white Catholics.

Nailed it.

Latest Quinnipiac...

Corbett disapproval at 42%. Approval at 36%. 51% think he doesn't deserve re-election (31% believe he does). Only 49% of Republicans would support him for another term. That's a huge problem. Look for Castor to get a lot more attention now.

Corbett is finished. It's a shame, but he should just bow out gracefully.

It will be a travesty if the state party cannot get it together just enough to oust Corbett. Thing is, Rendell isn't exactly popular either and went out with numbers that were just a bit better than Corbett's. I'm at this time hoping for Sestak, but admittedly I don't know a lot of them.

Corbett is unpopular amongst non Tea Party GOPers (and of course everyone else) for trying to completely decimate the university system's budget. I mean decimate it, destroy it, evaporate it. Administrators in the system have said that they will not be able to function if Corbett were to get all the cuts he wanted. But Corbett probably did not / does not really want all of them because what the Right wing does when it negotiates is it starts so extremely far out in right field that with modest concessions from the Left, the Right still wins by a lot.

Corbett is also generally unpopular, as I see it from here, for trying to privatize the turnpikes, the lottery, and the liquor stores - at least there's been a lot of opposition, but his cuts to education and the university system are far and away hurting him the worst.

In addition to what Snowstalker said about the PA Dem party, Pennsylvania has vast numbers of NRA members in the "Pennsylbama" or "Pennsyltucky" region - the woods, basically. So, the Dem party here is a bit milquetoast compared to other states. I would have switched to Green were it not for the primaries, in which I do vote, and that's for national reasons mainly.

Corbett also has problems with Tea Party activists. Don't discount that.

Corbett's son-in-law, a Philly narcotics officers, is under investigation by the FBI and IA.

Franklin & Marshall does a story about how Corbett's ratings are the worst in the history of their poll. Castor shares the story on Facebook with the comment, "Anyone else getting a bad feeling about this?"

Bruce sure does have a lot of fun with this!

Why is Corbett unpopular?  Usually, PA gives incumbent governors a second term.

He's never been beloved by the base. He didn't help matters by being very forcefully in favor of a U.S. Senate candidate last year that the base was skeptical of (said candidate went on to lose the primary. Badly). He isn't seen as a particularly inspiring or charismatic leader. His cuts to education and social services have infuriated the left.

You missed the point on being unable to gerrymander his way out of political trouble in 2014. Gubernatorial elections are by straight popular vote in Pennsylvania as elsewhere. Republicans ran stealth candidates with big money behind them, and those candidates are not gaining popular support, but that is a very different story.

...A year to nine months before a re-election campaign, an incumbent Senator or Governor needs a 44% approval rating to have a roughly 50% chance of winning re-election. The chance of being re-elected approaches 100% with an approval of 50% and approaches 0% with an approval rating near 40%. Below a 40% approval rating most incumbents either choose not to run or lose to primary challenges.

Governor Corbett could win re-election, but if his standing with voters does not improve within a year he will almost certainly (97% or more) be a political goner.  

He's not a skilled politician. It took this long to get liquor privatization on the agenda.

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives, which is what I presumed you meant when you said 'House' above, has 109 Republicans and 93 Democrats.

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives was not elected by a Republican gerrymandered map, but rather than gives Democrats a massive bonus by not being compliant with 1M1V.

A rare event: both state committees are holding their winter meetings this weekend in Harrisburg.

I'm getting word that McCord is telling people he's in and Schwartz is passing out stickers with her logo but no office. I'm guessing she's just teasing everyone.

Still waiting on Sestak, though if necessary I'll support anyone who isn't Allyson Schwartz in the primary.

“She’s 80% of the way in,” said Marcel Groen, the chair of the Democratic party in Schwartz’s home county. He’s one of the most influential party leaders in PA.

http://www.politicspa.com/exclusiv-after-dga-poll-schwartz-80-in-for-gov/45970/ (http://www.politicspa.com/exclusiv-after-dga-poll-schwartz-80-in-for-gov/45970/)

God help us. Never thought I'd see this.

Dear Jesus. We must stop the New Democrat virus before it spreads.

Schwartz's "New Democrat" act is irritating but that's only because it's an act. You don't really think she's a centrist, do you?

This is an election I will follow closely. I will turn in my resume to McCord, Sestak and Pawlowski and try to work in Erie PA for whatever campaign ends up hiring me.

...are you planning on moving to Erie for some other reason (and if so, uh, why)? Also, didn't you bring up Pawlowski before? I haven't heard about him running in a long time.

Very deep cuts to education have ticked off most everyone center right to left, privatizing the lottery has ticked off the older people, and his views on women are actually terrifying, and I can't imagine that if I were a woman that I could bring myself to even consider him. As a man I can't bring myself to even consider him. He's effectively a nightmare.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/15/tom-corbett-ultrasound-bill-pennsylvania_n_1348801.html

He hasn't learned this sort of thing yet.

A PA-13 primary will be interesting. Do you think anyone beats Mike Stack?

Bob Brady's Congressional map is clearly designed to give Philadelphia 3 districts rather than 2.

Stack? Haha, oh man. I wouldn't be concerned about Stack running.

Brady's district is the way it is so he could have a whiter district. He was going to get a primary challenge from a black candidate before the district changed.

I see another PA-13 style thread.

Politico chimes in on Corbett, asking "What's the matter with Tom Corbett?" (http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2013/02/whats-the-matter-with-tom-corbett-156063.html)

http://www.abc27.com/story/21216936/longtime-rendell-adviser-david-cohen-backs-corbett

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) - Republican Gov. Tom Corbett has picked up an influential supporter with close ties to his Democratic predecessor in his expected bid for a second term.

David Cohen, executive vice president of Comcast Corp. and longtime political adviser to former Gov. Ed Rendell, confirmed Friday that he's supporting Corbett's re-election.

Yeah, that Cohen news is surprising and pretty big. Believe it or not, the story now is that Corbett is courting labor.

Anyway, The Inquirer's headline today is "Schwartz Poised to Run for Governor." Ugh.

Sestak is grumbling about Governor again.

Of course, the 2 SEPA candidates probably knock each other out.

Two? It could be three. McCord is a frontrunner, too, and is from Montco.

I hope he runs, he'd make a pretty good Governor and could beat Corbett. He shouldn't wait for Toomey. He doesn't seem that bad as a GOP Senator so he'd be harder to beat.

 Joe Sestak: "I want to serve again" (http://politi.co/YaLYJx0)

If its 3, some Western PA Democrat will sweep in and win the primary.

Schwartz is saying she intends to run but businessman and 2007 Philly mayoral candidate Tom Knox is looking for attention, too: he has hired Frank Keel as an advisor. That's a pretty big deal.

This Penn State fiasco is a political nightmare for Corbett and he won't get past it.....or him effing up trying to privatize the lottery.

Former Congresswoman Dahlkemper is officially out. She's running for Erie county Executive instead.

Schwartz is running.

http://articles.philly.com/2013-02-25/news/37291228_1_allyson-schwartz-tom-corbett-woman-governor

Never thought I'd see it. Likely a clear sign that she thought a Senate race in 2016 might be pushing it.

Does Schwartz running mean that Sestak is more likely to challenge Toomey again?

I'd say so.

Either he's still having a ton of fun poking Corbett or Schwartz's move helped push him towards finally jumping in - http://www.brucecastor.com/ (http://www.brucecastor.com/)

It's going to be quite a year!

Friends of Bruce Castor lol

Why is that funny? That's a common campaign PAC title (at least around here). :P

That needs to stop. Its incredibly tacky. I don't understand why Castor would make a career killing primary run instead of trying the open Congressional seat. Its not like either is in his favor, so why beat up your own party's incumbent?

First of all, I don't think he's even in the new 13th. Secondly, it's an even more Dem favored district now. Thirdly, it's not as evenly split between Montco and NE Philly anymore.

Aside from all of that, he may (I still say "may" because he really might just be having fun at Corbett's expense. They hate each other) want to run because it isn't necessarily career ending. This is his opportunity (if ever there was a time). He is possibly taking on a member of his own party because the Governor isn't popular. Only 49% of Republicans in a recent PPP poll said they'd support Corbett for a second term. It isn't crazy for people to take a look at challenging him when you hear that result. Plus, there are enough people in the party that are worried that Corbett is a goner and want to save the Governorship/down ballot races while there is time.

http://articles.philly.com/2013-02-25/news/37271768_1_stack-58th-ward-democratic-leader

Stack, 49, is betting the voters of Pennsylvania are ready for a machine politician from the city much of the state loves to hate. He is Democratic leader of the 58th Ward, son of a beloved ward leader, and grandson of a New Deal congressman (a sponsor of the first federal minimum wage, 25 cents an hour).

But the Northeast is more like Pittsburgh or Scranton than Center City, Stack argues. And though he has supported her, he thinks Rep. Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County is too liberal to win statewide.

"She's done a great job in Congress and is on the fast track to leadership," Stack said Friday in an interview at the Tiffany Diner on Roosevelt Boulevard. "I think Allyson can best serve Pennsylvania in Washington."

Hahaha. Oh man. If he does this, he could be a real pain for her in the region. I think that's the extent of it though.

He's got a point about her ideology but Schwartz has a perfect response to that, which any moron could see and use.

IMO, it would be foolish for Stack or Schwartz to run.  Schwartz should wait till 2016 to challenge Toomey.  I'd rather go with McCord.

Castor wrote to Corbett, urging him to reject the Medicaid expansion.

Things are spicing up...

Likely GOP primary voters

Corbett - 49%
Undecided - 30%
Castor - 21%


Sestak is clearly unlikely to run now but was holding a one point lead over Schwartz, 20% to 19%. McCord is at 7% while Tom Knox clocks in at 3%.


http://www.politicspa.com/harper-poll-corbett-sestak-lead-guv-primaries/46492/ (http://www.politicspa.com/harper-poll-corbett-sestak-lead-guv-primaries/46492/)

If Sestak doesn't run, I'm not sure how much I like any of the other possibilities.

While we're speaking about that Harper Poll, here are the results concerning the state's most respected politicians.

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll-38065980#respect (http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll-38065980#respect)

Governor Tom Ridge - 24%
Governor Ed Rendell - 22%
Senator Rick Santorum - 21%
Governor Robert Casey Sr. - 18%
Senator Arlen Specter - 15%

Santorum doing that well and above Casey, Sr.? I'd love to believe it but...uh...

Also, Santorum beats Ridge among seniors but loses to Ridge among Republicans?

AFAIK this is just who they respect most proportionally, not a ranking system. Santorum is the only one out of these guys that isn't moderate, so I'm guessing most of his votes come from his base. If it was a ranking system I'm sure Casey would be higher.

PPP claims Corbett's numbers have gotten worse. He now trails every possible Dem opponent.

Corbett leads Castor 43% to 23% in the latest PPP poll. That's down from 51%-11%. 49% of Republicans want someone else as the nominee. In a match up (which will never happen) between Corbett and Tom Smith, the Governor is only up by four.

Corbett's approval rating is 33%. Disapproval at 58%.

LOL

Yeah, I think this confirms that he's getting a serious primary challenge either from Castor or someone else. At this point, I think retirement is very possible, too.

Corbett's gone then. This is how these things start.

By the way, 45% of Republicans disapprove of his job performance. Only 43% approve.

See that strange because those are the likely primary voters. Of republicans in the GE poll, they approve 48-41.

Corbett is basically coming to a point where, unless he starts recovering right now (like Snyder has), he will lose the primary. His lead over Castor seems to be purely name rec.

Castor himself, as (if I understand this correctly), a conservative but from and liked in Montco, seems to be a pretty strong candidate. Phil?

Quinnipiac has their own PA poll out today, so we'll see if they back up PPPs findings:

Castor is generally liked in Montco. He was a very popular District Attorney and top vote getter for Commissioner in 2007 but has hit some speed bumps over the years with people inside the state and local party. In 2011, the GOP lost control of the board for the first time since the 1800s and Castor came in behind both Shapiro and Richards so he got the third of three seats. The divisions within the Montco GOP and a stellar Shapiro campaign are the reasons why that happened. Since then though Castor and the Dems have governed in a very cooperative way, with several publications running stories focusing on the bipartisanship, calling it a model for governance.

I'd say Castor is conservative but he doesn't have the reputation as a saber rattler. So much talk about Castor is about his time as DA, Commissioner and his personality so you don't get too much insight into his ideology. I think most people would say he's a moderate just because of where he's from and his success there. Plus, his very loyal personal following is within a county party known for having been dominated by moderates so that plays a role, too.

Bottom line: we'll have to see if/when he runs just how conservative he really is but don't expect him to be some conservative icon.

Quinnipiac's findings...

53% of registered voters oppose Corbett's re-election. Approval rating at 39%/disapprove at 49%.

59% of Republicans say he deserves another term but 33% say he does not. He trails all Dems except Knox, Wolf and McCord (surprising) but almost all head-to-head match ups are within three points.

In other news, Casey has a 48%-34% approval rating. Toomey is at 43%-32%.

For the record, Tom Smith officially announced that he is not running.

His numbers have cratered in the T, where he won 70-30 or so in 2010. Breaking even in SEPA and 22% in Philadelphia are actually not bad.

Schwartz is in. She has hired a former Obama operative to handle communications. McCord is also signaling that he's running so this should be fun.

On the GOP side, this has appeared - http://castorwatch.com/ (http://castorwatch.com/)

Dirty laundry between McCord and Schwartz staffers.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/pennsylvania-governor-democratic-primary-89481.html

Toomey considering a primary to Corbet - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-toomey-considering-guv-primary-with-video/47009/ (http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-toomey-considering-guv-primary-with-video/47009/)


An elaborate April Fool's joke by PoliticsPA. ;)

Guess I'm on board with McCord for now.

Aside from the Schwartz-McCord drama, former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf has jumped in and is pledging to spend $10 million. That will certainly buy some attention for the least known candidate.

I see no path for a Democrat from York County to win the nomination.

See the 2010 Dem Lt. Gubernatorial primary for the most similar situation. I agree though that it is unlikely in a more high profile race with heavier hitters.

Schwartz makes it official (Part VIII) - files her PAC today.

Do you Pennsylvania posters know the answer to this? What is the required legislative vote for overriding the Governor's veto in Pennsylvania? Is it 2/3 or a simple majority? I'm finding conflicting information.


http://swtimes.com/sections/opinion/steve-brawner/commentary-governor%E2%80%99s-veto-largely-irrelevant-%E2%80%94-now.html


http://www.legis.state.pa.us/WU01/VC/visitor_info/creating/legislative.htm


http://articles.philly.com/2010-11-18/news/24954771_1_rendell-veto-veto-of-school-bill-charter-schools

In what is being deemed big breaking news, Joe Sestak's first quarter report shows he raised $460,000. Curiously, most of it came from maxed out individuals on one date - Sunday, March 31st (Easter).

 While his committee is still designated as a U.S. Senate campaign committee, the name has been changed to "Friends of Joe Sestak" and money could be transferred to a Gubernatorial campaign account.

http://www.politicspa.com/breaking-hes-back-sestak-raises-460k-in-q1/47539/ (http://www.politicspa.com/breaking-hes-back-sestak-raises-460k-in-q1/47539/)

If Sestak runs, he'll win the Primary and the General.

Making things even more interesting, Chairman Brady said he likes my State Senator - Mike Stack - for Governor. If he actually does this, he's instantly legitimate because of Brady's blessing.

I'm all in for Sestak - I hope he runs. I'll just vote against Corbett if I have to, but Sestak is a known quantity, and I think he might do well in the western part of the state. He's far left of the rural areas, but the Navy background will blunt a good portion of it. I'm guessing he will run (waiting till 2016 for a Senate run is far too uncertain), and I think he would demolish Corbett in a general election, which would be cause for a party. :)

Latest Quinnipiac headline: Schwartz, Sestak and McCord up 9+ points on Corbett. I'll browse the details later.

The Governor's approval rating is 38% with 47% disapproving. 50% say he doesn't deserve re-election. Favorability is at 29%.

The Democratic primary numbers: 59% undecided, 15% for Schwartz, 15% for Sestak. No one else is above 3% (which is pretty embarrassing for McCord).

Castor literally just announced that he is not running for Governor. No surprise.

Is Sestak running? Will Tom Corbett be primaried?

He hasn't said.

 
Castor was the only major official floating a primary challenge. Now that he's out, Corbett doesn't have any major opposition...as of now.

I know it's not an election but I don't know where I should post.

I'm interesting for the US religion, particularly for the division between catholics and protestants. And for Pennsylvania I found two opposite informations:
The first information:
Christianity – 80%
Protestant – 51%
Mainline Protestant – 25%
Evangelical Protestant – 18%
Black Protestant – 7%
Jehovah Witness – 1%
Roman Catholic – 29%
Orthodox – 1%
Non-religious/ Unaffiliated – 13%
Judaism – 2%
Other religions – 1%
Don't know/ refused – 1%

The second information

Pennsylvania: 53% roman catholiscism



What information is correct?

Sestak is officially out per an e-mail and is said to be considering a rematch against Toomey.

Oh goodie.

Dang, I like Sestak a lot, and I like Toomey a lot. I was hoping he would run for Governor.

This. I was sincerely hoping I wouldn't have to vote for Allyson Schwartz, but it appears that she'll be the Dem candidate, barring a huge upset. Ugh. I won't vote for her, though.

Mark Critz may run for may run for LG (http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/05/former_us_rep_mark_critz_consi.html) instead of a Congressional rematch.

McCord has formed his committee.

Damn, this is depressing.  I hope the Greens have ballot access. 

Krazen, I think you should know because you are a republican, who could seek the republican nomination for the Pennsylvania governor if Corbett retires? Thanks

Yep, this.

---

Krazen's opinion shouldn't be valued.

If that happens, Bruce Castor might just have to run for the sake of the party's legitimacy.

And your best candidate from SWPA for the primary foiled the Voter ID plan. Give me the abortion shop owner any day, at least she respects democracy.

Talk of Corbett stepping aside or getting a primary has started up again but Castor has emphasized that he isn't going to run.

If Corbett does step aside, look for our Lt. Governor to run. He's a former Bucks county Commissioner who would do well in the SE. He has been a very loyal soldier for Corbett and conservative causes despite a more moderate background. He's also very passionate. Not sure if any other top tier candidates would jump in. Gerlach was interested in it in 2010 but now has a safe seat in the House and is the type that respects the party's wishes if the powers that be unite behind a candidate (in this case, probably Lt. Governor Cawley). Lower tier candidates would obviously run as well.

Yeah, Cawley strikes me as the type to run if Corbett doesn't. I'm not sure if any Reps are running, but I think Gerlach is happy with his current job too. Phil, you know about anyone in the state house who might run?

I'm not betting on Turzai to beat Schwartz, considering he managed to royally screw up Voter ID and became the poster boy of the movement against it. Does he lack as much political savvy as I think he does?

Yeah, Voter ID isn't a losing issue for the GOP here. Whatever the case, I don't know where this talk about Turzai for Governor is coming from. He hasn't hinted at it and I highly doubt he'd do it.

Someone like Daryl Metcalfe - the firebrand far right wing State Representative from out west who ran for Lt. Governor in 2010 - might do it. He wouldn't win the primary and would still run for his House seat (as he did in 2010) but he does have a following. In a one-on-one with a total establishment type, he absolutely could make it interesting. The General with Metcalfe as the nominee would be...well...very good for one side and very bad for the other.

I got it from the Wikipedia page, so I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing.

Metcalfe sounds like a disaster for y'all though. Sounds more like Ted Cruz than Pat Toomey.

A new poll from Harper Polling shows a generic Republican trailing a general Dem by only one point but when asked about Corbett specifically, only 24% said he deserves re-election. A whopping 56% want someone else.

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pa-poll-state-budget-corbett-reelection#corbett (http://harperpolling.com/polls/pa-poll-state-budget-corbett-reelection#corbett)

So a pure toss up if Corbett is retiring?

If you just take the generic R vs. generic D numbers, sure. But if that was to happen, we'd see some stronger players on our bench stepping up and I think they'd be more appealing than McCord or Schwartz in a General.

If you look at Pennsylvania's historical trends, PA has been re-electing their governors since 1974 and I expect that to continue unless the PA GOP either recruits someone to challenge Corbett in a GOP primary or forces him to retire due to horrible approval ratings.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania Democrats need to get their act together by forcing the other candidates to DROP OUT and unite behind 1 candidate (Schwartz) considering that Pennsylvania has never elected a female governor ever.

You mean you don't expect that to continue unless he is primaried or forced to retire, right?

By the way, recent write up in the national press about certain Republican Congressmen quietly putting out feelers for a run in case they have to step in due to more talk of Corbett being forced aside.

Which ones do you think? I think we established that Gerlach won't do it, and I don't think Fitzpatrick will either. Their seats are plausible opportunities for Democrats, so who else has gubernatorial aspirations?

Either one could reconsider. Taking Corbett's place is a lot different than shoving Corbett aside. Though Fitzpatrick has said he doesn't want to be in politics forever (He's going to retire from the house in 2016 if I recall) and I doubt he'd take a run for Governor in any situation.

Out of the current reps, I'd bet Gerlach, Kelly and maybe Murphy & Barletta to take a shot.

I think Meehan would be most likely but Dent would also strongly consider it. Meehan would fare better with the base. Mike Kelly would be a real wildcard if he wants it. Not sure that he's interested but he's popular in the party and more recognizable (he's made national news). He'd be the real base favorite out of the Congressmen candidates unless Barletta ran.

Corbett's face literally in the crosshairs - http://www.politicspa.com/greene-co-dems-target-corbett-literally/50004/ (http://www.politicspa.com/greene-co-dems-target-corbett-literally/50004/)

Chances that he gets shot because of this?

That's just terrible

Yeah that's really distasteful

Bad taste.

Remember when Palin did it?

Mark Critz is running for Lieutenant Governor. (http://tribune-democrat.com/breakingnews/x1938696713/Critz-confirms-that-he-will-run-for-lieutenant-governor)

Except it wasn't remotely the same.

And damn you, Miles! I was here to break that news! :P

Sorry Phil! Yeah, I hate when that happens to me.

What do you think about his chances?

I think he has a great chance if he isn't already the frontrunner. With every (major, at least) candidate for Governor hailing from the eastern half of the state, a Southwest candidate for Lt. Governor is perfect for geographical balance. Also, the Dems will be looking to win over moderate to conservative Dems in the General. Critz helps with that, of course...to the extent that the Lt. Gubernatorial matters. He would help on a personal level, too. I think it's fair to say that someone like Allyson Schwartz isn't going to connect on a personal level as well in the T and in most areas out west. Critz would be chief surrogate in those areas.

Critz is also a big name in the party in general. Compare him to almost every other candidate* for the spot and Critz becomes the clear star. Even if he wasn't, look at the 2010 Lt. Gubernatorial primary on the Dem side. The big name - former Philadelphia City Controller and major Dem activist Jonathan Saidel - lost because there was another, lesser known (in a statewide context) candidate from Philly. They both lost to not-too-well-known two term State Representative Scott Conklin from the Penn State area because the SE split between Saidel and Smith-Ribner. It was a three way squeaker but Conklin winning was still a big upset. Critz could also benefit from a similar split and much more so than Conklin did if more eastern candidates got in.

*The obstacle for Critz is that there is one big name candidate running: State Teachers' Union President and former Allegheny county Councilman Mike Crossey. He'll get support out west and is obviously a player in the labor movement. We'll have to see how much it matters though. For all we know, he could bow out in favor of Critz.

Schwartz/Critz would be a weird ticket though.

A former Planned Parenthood clinic owner paired with someone who was one of if not the most Pro-Life Democrat in Congress.

"sup" - Dan Lipinski

Sure it would be but Schwartz is a smart candidate. She's pragmatic enough to know that she "needs" someone like Critz.

Looking at Pennsylvania's historical trends on the Keystone State Governors:

1974-Milton Shapp (D) reelected governor
1978-Dick Thornburgh (R) elected
1982-Thornburgh reelected
1986-State Auditor General Bob Casey, Sr., elected governor
1990-Casey Sr., reelected
1994-U.S. Rep. Tom Ridge (R-PA) elected governor in GOP Revolution landslide
1998-Ridge reelected
2002-Former Philly Mayor Ed Rendell (D) elected to the governorship
2006-Rendell reelected easily
2010-State AG Tom Corbett (R) elected to the governorship
2014-???

Corbett has 3 statewide election victories in his belt

But his approval ratings are down the tubes and no one in PA cares about what happened in the 80's when it comes to reelecting Corbett or not. 

People give too much credit to supposed trends as if they're guaranteed rules, without considering that it may just be coincidence or that certain circumstances of the current election may prevent that trend from holding up.

1948- Matthew Nealy (D) beat W. Chapman Revercomb (R) by 14 to become the Class 3 Senator from West Virginia
1954- Nealy reelected, beating Robert Sweeney (R) by nearly 20 again.. Nealy dies in 1958.
1958- John Hobitzell (R) was appointed to succeed him by a Republican governor, but he was beaten months after being sworn in by Jennings Randolph (D) by almost 20 points.
1960- Randolph re-elected, this time by 10.
1966- Randolph (D) re-elected again in a landslide. Almost 20.
1972- Randolph once again wins and breaks 20.
1978- Jennings Randolph (D) fends off a strong challenge from popular former governor Arch Moore (R), scraping by with one point.
1984- Jay Rockefeller (D) beats John Raese (R) by 5 points.
1990- Rockefeller reelected in an over 30-point landslide
1996- Rockefeller wins by more than 50
2002- Rockefeller (D) reelected Senator
2008- Rockefeller wins by over 25
2014- Because the Class 2 Senate seat from West Virginia has not elected a Democrat and has been a landslide since 1984, the Democrat will win in 2014 by a landslide.

See? I can cite random facts to back up things that won't happen too.

I've always been critical of the stock people place in this re-elect pattern but it's amazing how so many of the Dems that cited it from 2004-2006 for Rendell now think it is irrelevant. Not talking about anyone here necessarily; talking head hacks have done it though.

Anyway, as critical as I've been about the pattern, I don't think it makes sense to say it will be broken because "people don't care about what happened in the '80s." That's not why the pattern matters or exists. The pattern exists as a result of Pennsylvania's cautious electorate and even though Corbett's in the tubes right now, he could still benefit from it. If he gets up to a rating in even just the 40s, I think this becomes a totally different race leaning in his favor.

But will Tom Corbett run again?

He insists that he is.

Former Auditor General Jack Wagner is supposedly considering another bid for Governor. He's obviously not a hit with the liberal base but he'd easily be the most electable in November and is probably looking to unite the non-eastern PA vote.

Tennessee also has the similar trend in reelecting their governors as well:
1978-Lamar Alexander (R) elected governor
1982-Alexander reelected
1986-Ned McWhether (D) elected to the governorship
1990-McWhether reelected
1994-Don Sundquist (R) elected, defeating then-Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen (D)
1998-Sundquist reelected overwhelmingly
2002-Bredsen (D) elected to the governorship.
2006-Bredesen reelected
2010-Bill Haslam (R) elected
2014-Haslam likely reelected
2018-??

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/08/government_reformers_say_gov_t.html

From John Hanger's Facebook page.

Knowing Corbett, he's likely to go ahead with the reelection bid.

The Dem primary could get nasty, which would benefit Corbett in the general.

boo corbett yay hanger

Sawx, I'm curiious, where will you vote in 2014? Pennsylvania or New Hampshire?

probably PA, i just want to help corbett out the door and the democrats can hold on for a year

Well, I stand corrected on this. I didn't even see him recently mentioned as a rumored candidate until someone mentioned it here. I didn't take it seriously but it looks like he's in.

()


For those that don't know, he's the Mayor of Allentown.

About an hour ago, McCord's Facebook page posted that an "announcement about the future" would be coming soon. It was accompanied by a picture of the State Treasurer talking to voters.

Well, I met John Hanger yesterday when he came to my college. I'd have to say I was pleased with what he had to say. Would highly recommend all the D-PAs here to listen to him, tell everyone you know about him, and to donate. He's got good grassroots ideas but needs the money.

McCord running for Governor ?

I believe a crowded Democratic primary would get nasty and possibly help the GOPers like Corbett (if he isn't pushed out).

...yeah, this isn't anything surprising...

But an official announcement still hasn't happened.

Corbett does have a big EGO, he'll still run for reelection despite folks pressuring him to pull a David Palmer and bow out of the 2014 governor's race.

http://www.politicspa.com/santorum-endorses-corbett/51144/

Rick Santorum states that he will "Absolutely" campaign on Corbett's behalf throughout the election.


R+1, Dems have no chance now.

Yes, Santorum and Corbett are close. Corbett introduced Rick before the 2006 concession speech.

Yeah seriously, John Hanger is the man.

This is getting a lot of attention - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r5MvXLyXmE#t=37 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r5MvXLyXmE#t=37)

Rumor that Corbett is dropping out and endorsing Cawley to succeed him.

I'm not sure Cawley would be much better, considering his ties to Corbett.

Why?

Where are you hearing this, Phil?

Yeah, some obviously believe that. But there are serious differences in style between the two that the public would see.


Well, if there isn't an actual story published, think about it...


:P

No way Corbett drops out.

The talk continues. There is supposedly already an effort to draft Toomey...

http://www.politicspa.com/gop-rumors-swirl-about-top-ticket-change/51795/ (http://www.politicspa.com/gop-rumors-swirl-about-top-ticket-change/51795/)

Also, this is apparently all over if Toomey wants in. Corbett supposedly will bail if he says so. Cawley is a back up. If neither run, Corbett stays.

I'd imagine Meehan or Dent run for the GOP in this case. If Toomey comes in, of course it firmly leans Republican.

Toomey making a run for Governor means that Democrats could potentially pick up a Senate seat AND a Governorship. Which would be amazing.

Toomey's seat is up in 2016, just so you know. Of course, if he lost for Governor, it would be a bad sign that he's in trouble in 2016 but the two aren't directly related.

I'd say it Tilts D solely due to Sestak's power as a candidate in 2016.

Toomey is going to be very hard to beat. Leans R, but much closer to Likely than Tilt.

Toomey could absolutely win the Governorship, and Sestak is already thinking of running for Senate in 2016 no matter what.

If Toomey runs for Governor, I'd absolutely consider voting for him over Schwartz.

If Toomey comes in, he'd crush them both very easily.


Why?  He's not a hardcore conservative by any means, but he isn't a centrist, either.

Schwartz is a very gross individual imo. I don't like how she comes off, plus she's had some reaaaaaaaaaaally terrible votes in the House. Toomey is at least honest about what he believes in (see: why I love Chris Christie)

Yeah, I'd love to see Toomey vs. Schwartz! I have wanted that (and expected it in 2010) for awhile. It wouldn't be a slam dunk but I definitely believe Toomey would be favored.


:D

Who would Toomey appoint to his Senate seat if he were to win?

Keystone Phil

I'd still be too young. ;)

No idea if he'd go with someone close to him as a placeholder or an elected official. Obviously, we're thinking a little too far ahead on this. :P

Toomey should appoint Phil as Senator screw the law

If they are passing out Senate seats like candy up there then I think it is time I move back. :P

Casey's will be available when he inherits the Governorship sooner or later. ;)

 

Corbett will be kicking off his re-election campaign in Philadelphia on November 7th. That will get plenty of attention. He'll be in one of the most Republican parts in NE Philly to announce but it's still noteworthy.

In huge endorsement news, Bob Brady has officially backed Schwartz in the Dem primary now that State Senator Mike Stack has decided to run for Lt. Governor instead of the top spot.

Like I said before, I'm NOT counting out Corbett in 2014.

We've seen several other state governors survive horrible first terms before (Lawton Chiles, Pete Wilson, etc.,)

And more importantly the fact that there's still a year left to buoy himself even in the slightest. It's a strong lean but there's still time.

I'm still hoping John Hanger is able to garner steam for the nomination, though Schwartz is almost guaranteed it now. Ugh.

In other news, Daylin Leach is a badass and I can't wait to vote for him next year. (http://www.politicspa.com/leach-asks-congress-to-do-something-with-video/52167/)

Yeah, some believe Brady's endorsement will actually mean people like McGinty and maybe even McCord will withdraw.


We do have a PA 13 thread. Use it.  ;)  It will definitely pick up steam next year as that primary will be one of the most interesting in the country. All kinds of factions of the Democratic party squaring off.

Ah poop I didn't know there was one. My b!

Stop it.

Well, is there a chance that the democrats regain the upper and/or lower chamber in 2014?
Has someone the PVI  for the state districts?

Remote possibility of the Senate due to some tricky open GOP seats and screw ups from 2012. The House will take a wave election. We have a decent majority there and after redistricting, it will be very hard to crack.

Gains by either party will be offset with some losses in both chambers. New congressmen like Walsh can regain a seat lost to us by Begich. Both chambers in competetive races will have turnover. But we see a net pickup in the House and a marginal pickup by GOP in senate.

We're talking about PA here, not home.

I don't think that the Senate or the House will flip in 2014. Slight chance of the Senate coming to Democrats (about 20%), but the House? No way in hell.

Which is hilarious because no one would have seriously thought the reverse several years ago.

Correction: Corbett's first announcement location is in Allegheny county. Philly is just a stop on the kickoff tour. Kind of figured this was the case.

Democrats may have an interesting name for a run in PA-05 against Glenn Thompson



Jay Paterno, son of Joe (http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/10/jay_paterno_eyeing_5th_distric.html)

Isn't Paterno the pedophile coach?

No, he's the "doesn't-report-pedophile-to-police" coach

No, the nonce is still alive. JoePa's just the guy who covered it up.

He'll get destroyed if he runs. One of Joe's other sons ran (as a Republican) for Congress in the old GOP friendly PA 17 in 2004. Tim Holden crushed him. Jay Paterno is running as a Dem in a safe GOP seat. It won't end well for him.

Rothenberg has moved the Gov race from Toss-Up to Lean D (http://www.politicspa.com/rothenberg-moves-pa-gov-to-lean-democrat/52408/)

Rothenberg, Cook, and Sabato now all agree that Corbett is pretty much toast. And knowing how pro-incumbent Rothenberg is this early in the election cycle, it really means something.

Corbett's numbers still in the trash-can:

GovRun. Do you believe that Governor Corbett should run for re-election or do you believe he should step aside so another Republican candidate can represent the party in the 2014 election for governor? (231 registered Republicans)

44% step aside
42% run for re-election

DesREGov. Do you believe that Tom Corbett has done a good enough job as Governor to deserve reelection, or do you believe it is time for a change? (all RV voters)

20% deserves re-election
67% time for a change

IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of [FILL name] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough about [FILL name] to have an opinion? (rotated)

TOM CORBETT: 23-52 unfavorable

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct13.pdf

Corbett will definitely fire up Republicans against Schwartz but...

So much for all the talk about stepping aside. (http://www.politicspa.com/gov-corbett-to-officially-launch-campaign/52562/)

Reported here over a week ago. ;)

Corbett will tell the experts and pollsters to SHOVE IT: I'm seeking reelection and going to win.

Do NOT count out Corbett.

Whatever you say Doug.

Corbett will kick off his re-election campaign next week. (http://www.politicspa.com/update-gov-corbett-to-officially-launch-campaign/52562/)

I think this needs to be reported about three more times in this thread for people to get the point.

I think it's just the fact that Democrats love to hear it.

Wait, are you supporting Corbett?

I put this poster on my ignore list today.

Well, I got back a few hours ago from Mayor Gray's reelection party. The countdown to take down Corbett starts now.

Wagner will decide by December whether he will run for Governor again - http://www.politicspa.com/wagner-to-decide-on-guv-bid-by-december/52825/ (http://www.politicspa.com/wagner-to-decide-on-guv-bid-by-december/52825/)

The former two term Auditor General ran in 2010 and ran for Lt. Governor in 2002 (as Casey's unofficial running mate) so he is no stranger to statewide contests. Wagner's entrance would be huge not only because of his deep connections and experience with the establishment but also because he will be the only candidate from the west.

Harper Polling is out with some interesting findings. In the Dem primary, Schwartz leads the pack with 22%. Former DEP Secretary Katie McGinty is in second with 15%. McCord takes 12%, Hanger is at 7%, Pawlowski has 6% and Wolf is in last with 5%. 34% are undecided.

44% say they would prefer a "moderate, more electable Dem" while 38% want a "liberal Democrat who champions progressive issues."

Interesting numbers on abortion: only 52% say it should be legal in most cases with 43% saying it should be illegal in most cases. That part isn't surprising (to me at least). What is: men took a more liberal stance on the issue than women. Younger people continue the recent trend of supporting more restrictions.

http://www.politicspa.com/harper-poll-pa-dems-split-on-abortion-more/52946/ (http://www.politicspa.com/harper-poll-pa-dems-split-on-abortion-more/52946/)

I think you are aware that I am not a fan of Corbett.  Consider that when I post.

1.  Corbett just had a fairly major victory on transportation funding, including an increase in the speed limit to 70 MPH on some Interstates.  That tends to be popular outside SEPA.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/70_mph_speed_limits_coming_to.html  PA conservatives like fast driving and cheap liquor.  :)   If the State Stores were sold, he'd win in a landslide.

There could be some legislative victories that strengthen him.

2.  The "Kane investigation" on Sandusky will go no place.  Corbett was accused of dragging his feet.  His "alibi" is that they didn't know about the other victims until October 2010.  It came from a tipster to the Centre County DA, Parks Miller.   Parks Miller is a fairly liberal Democrat, female, and a Kane supporter.  She first ran in 2009, and Corbett supported her opponent.  She has zero reasons to cover up for Corbett.  I think they can show that he didn't know about the second and subsequent victims until late 2010.  Some of the Sandusky investigation/PSU complaints will collapse.

Also, the trials should be over; I expect convictions, though Spanier could escape. 

Sandusky will have a lesser impact than it does now.

3.  Fracking is receding as an issue.  Schwartz wants to tax it, not ban it.  http://www.phillymag.com/news/2013/09/05/top-corbett-challenger-puts-cards-table-tax-fracking/  Corbett can be seen as being on the right side of history on this issue.  Even more than Sandusky, this could have damaged him.

Fracking is a moderate plus for Corbett.

4.  Corbett does slightly better in the African American community that the average Republican.  He has been known to fire senior staffers for even minor comments.  It more than just having a black grandson.

There will be slight erosion of the Democratic base.

I wouldn't proclaim him the winner in 2014 just yet, but I think he will be strengthening going into the election.

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

Interesting. Do you think Republican anti-tax voters will be receptive to this argument?

"Conservatives vow to punish Pa. lawmakers who supported gas tax hike"

http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20131122/conservatives-vow-to-punish-pa-lawmakers-who-supported-gas-tax-hike

Basically, Republicans outside of the SE hate it (not to say that there aren't Republicans here that don't like it).

Some of it are user fees, and I doubt if we would see it coming in.

I basically saw Thornburgh do the same think in 1981-2, successfully.

Are you sticking to the idea that the transportation bill is a positive for Corbett's reelection?

I know I'm not being asked but I'll answer anyway: overall, yes. It will help his standing in the SE. He's getting a lot of praise from Dem leaders down here that were very worried about it not passing. Yeah, he's hitting a few bumps with the GOP but he's used to that now and, quite frankly, I think a large part of his strategy will be charging up the GOP against Schwartz.

Pennsylvania will be a toss up, not lean dem.

That's interesting and a good point. As a Democrat, I think it's good policy (without examining the details) and applaud his getting it passed. I would never vote for him but I'm sure there are moderate Republicans in the SE who appreciate this accomplishment. Since I only look at PA federally I forget that they can vote very differently on a state level.

Ouch.

Yeah, that's almost literally unbelievable.

How do you mess up that badly? Is he that awful??

Wow...so his overall approval will be in the 20s? Not that Corbett being toxic is news or anything, but I never expected him to drop THAT low.

24% approve, 65% disapprove. Dem primary is wide open with yet announced Wagner just four points behind Schwartz. 42% of Republicans want Corbett as the nominee while 47% want someone else. Several Dems already at 50% against Corbett.

http://t.co/4BFXEu9Okm (http://t.co/4BFXEu9Okm)

Why is he so unpopular?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/corbetts-numbers-just-keep-getting-worse.html#more

24% disapproval. He has gone below Rick Scott at his worst points.

At those low levels of support he could end up with mass demonstrations against him this summer.

Incompetent? Corrupt? Extreme?

Think of what happened in the Senatorial races in Indiana and Missouri: the Republican nominees for the US Senate trivialized rape as an abstraction with "legitimate rape" and similar formulations, and lost decisively in states that Barack Obama lost decisively. The Penn State scandal involved rape, and not as an abstraction -- boys getting raped by some assistant coach who betrayed a basic trust. Being involved in any attempted coverup after the fact is hard to recover from.   

Only down 15-20 points? Looks like a toss up to me because PA is a "swing state".

Said every news outlet ever.

For Corbett to perform better in the African American community in 2014, he's going to need between 16-25 percent of Blacks. In 2010, he only got 8 percent of the African American vote.

If I was Corbett, I'd follow Chris Christie's 2013 model and go into both African American and Latino communities like NOW.

Speaking of minority voting support, how much of the African American vote did then-Gov. Tom Ridge (R) get in 1994 and 1998 ?

I liked this comment on PPP's PA poll:

Good question. Unfortunately, Tom Corbett isn't Tom Ridge or Chris Christie, so it's very unlikely.

Also, very good to see Hanger climbing up in the polls.

One of Corbett's major problems is that he has not accomplished much.

...except people have been saying that about Corbett for at least a year now so...

Well, Corbett's been politically toxic for at least a year now.

There's a significant segment that has been critiquing him for at least that period of time and weren't simply saying he wasn't conservative enough as a talking point. They're really battled him on a number of issues before the legislature. Also keep in mind that a third of Republicans didn't vote for him in the 2010 primary.

Fair enough, but not being conservative enough is hardly why he's currently less popular than headlice, or why his re-election chances are so slim.

On a related note, Phil, can you explain to me again why Corbett doesn't have a serious primary challenger again? I've seen the polls showing him leading Meehan, Dent, Fitzgerald, etc., but not by that much. When only 42% of Republican voters want him to be their nominee for gov (granted, against that perinially overpolling candidate, "someone else"), you'd think there'd be sufficient grass roots AND establishment support to dump him (and possibly save the GOP's bacon in November by doing so).

So what gives? Is it truly a case of "the devil you know" mentality dominating the PA GOP here?

Governors are very powerful in Pennsylvania and the Governor is the de facto head of his or her party in almost all states. Should tell you what you need to know.

Another factor is that it takes a huge amount of money to run in PA.  I would question if these guys have the war chest to run.

Corbett is being challenges for the nomination by Bob Guzzardi - a longtime activist, businessman/attorney and major donor to grassroots conservative causes over the years - http://www.politicspa.com/conservative-activist-mounts-primary-challenge-to-corbett/53515/ (http://www.politicspa.com/conservative-activist-mounts-primary-challenge-to-corbett/53515/)

Guzzardi is from Montco. He acknowledges he won't win but wants to send a message. Corbett's support for the transportation bill is what pushed Guzzardi into the race.

Wouldn't be surprised if he won the nomination. Who is going to show up at the polls to vote for Corbett in the primary?

He'll lose the general, of course, but so would Corbett.

It would be hilarious if Corbett lost the primary to a some dude.

Endorsed!

So what % would you guess Guzzardi will likely get, Phil?

Any chance you'll vote for him?

I think he stands a good chance at getting a significant percent just based on the protest vote. It's worth noting that Guzzardi has a lot of money but we'll see if he sticks with this.

Local 98 (the electricians union) endorsed and donated $100,000 to Schwartz. Huge primary endorsement.

Just out of curiousity, have there been any significant developments in the Lt. Gov. primary?

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

A bit down the road, but Kane is looking at the 2016 Senate race. (http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20131213_Sources__A_G__Kane_mullsU_S__Senate_run.html)

Yeah!!!!! Democrats need more women!

I still remember when Obama's state senate vote on the partial birth abortion bill was supposed to cause his landslide defeat to McCain.

Ok, maybe you're still not getting the difference a) between starting an abortion clinic and possibly recommending women to Kermit Gosnell and voting against a partial birth ban and b) the importance of abortion in state elections compared to Presidential elections. And no one said Obama's State Senate vote on that or any other issue was going to trigger a landslide loss for him. Tone down the hyperbole and stop comparing apples and oranges.

I think everyone can agree with me that Rob McCord is a much better candidate than Allyson Schwartz.

That's the thing, only single issue voter pro-life zealots care if someone started an abortion clinic. None of those people were voting Democrat to begin with. As for the Kermit Gosnell thing, it's merely speculation. But even if it does turn out to be true, how exactly is that Schwartz's fault? If you saw your PCP and they referred you to an oncologist who was secretly insane and murdered you during one of your examinations, would you blame your PCP for that?

Eh, I think some swing voters would have an issue with it. It will be seen as being far more than just vocally Pro Choice. And this is a state with many Pro Life Dems. Please don't think it would be a non-issue.

Also, if she has nothing to fear with Gosnell, she would have answered one way or the other on it, right? Well, she refuses to answer. And again, please stop with these idiotic comparisons. It's nothing like an oncologists "being secretly insane and murdering" a patient. There had been numerous complaints about Gosnell over the years.

With Corbett's anti gay comments, and with Schwartz the hard pro-choice, Social-centrist PA voters will love this election...

Indeed. What an election to be a moderate hero.

Corbett approval up to 36% in latest Quinnipiac poll. Trails all Dems except Hanger. Trails Schwartz by eight and McCord by three.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1991 (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1991)

Corbett also announced his support for legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

Likely D this guy is a dead man walking he will not be re-elected.

Why would he lead Hanger but trail everyone else? Odd.

Hanger is unknown and probably the furthest left of the bunch. It makes plenty of sense.

Well, it will be difficult to be reelected, but not impossible.

Corbett could win a rigged election!

Otherwise, forget it.

McGinty and Wolf are also unknown. I doubt enough people are paying attention to unknown Democratic primary candidate ideologies to account for a 12 point difference.

McGinty probably benefits as a female candidate and Wolf might already be spending some of his millions with minor advertising. While I totally agree that it's way too early for the general public to know about these lesser known candidates' ideologies, you'll have to at least concede that Hanger must be lesser known than McGinty and Wolf. "Corbett can't possibly be leading any opponent. The poll must be flawed" isn't a good argument.

This is from the latest PPP poll which shows their name recognition:

Wolf:
Favorable 9%
Unfavorable 16%
Not sure 75%

Hanger:
Favorable 9%
Unfavorable 17%
Not sure 74%

Ok so aside from saying they're equally unknown, I don't get your point. Are you arguing that the poll must be flawed because you don't like that Corbett is leading anyone or what?

My point is how it makes no sense that one unknown performs 12 points better than another unknown. That's the kind of difference you'd expect from a strong candidate vs. an unknown, or an unknown vs. a particularly weak/scandal plagued candidate. I couldn't care less if Corbett is leading him since he won't be the nominee anyway.

It makes no sense, in your opinion, so...what? The poll is wrong?

It makes no sense to anyone with more than two brain cells. You have yet to explain how it's possible that people with virtually identical name recognition and favorability ratings could perform at such drastically different levels against the same opponent.

And no, I'm not saying the poll is wrong. Just that that particular data point is out of place. If Corbett is really leading Hanger by 5 you'd expect his margin against the other unknowns to be relatively similar, not a 12 point difference. Or vice versa if Wolf is really leading Corbett by 7.

Actually, there's a perfect explanation for it: people that know Hanger don't like his views. Now I conceded the point that Hanger or anyone outside of Schwartz probably doesn't have a known ideology amongst the general electorate but there is an explanation for why Hanger would poll worse against Corbett. Work those three brain cells that you have a little harder.

I mean, I'll reserve my judgment because I'm a big Hanger supporter, but I don't think that the issue of energy and his general liberalism would give him that much of a disadvantage compared to everyone else.

But who knows. This all might be wishful thinking.

Again, their favorability ratings are virtually identical, as I posted above.

Funnily enough, in PPP's poll, Wolf does 7 points worse than Hanger. In Quinnipiac's poll Wolf does 12 points better than Hanger, a 19 point difference. Clearly one or both of these polls are way off.

State Senator Mike Waugh (R-York) is resigning. Special election coming soon. (http://www.politicspa.com/sources-waugh-to-resign-triggering-special-election/54081/)

obligatory D+1 post

Halvorsen raises less than $9k (http://atr.rollcall.com/shuster-primary-opponent-posts-another-paltry-quarter/) this quarter for PA-09.

Quote of the day:

Who is Tom Wolf? He just raised 13.27 million for Governor!

Businessman from York County, former secretary of the Department of Revenue. Rich as hell ~ $10 million of that is self-funded.

Seen him speak. Fairly dry, seems out of touch.

He beat Schwartz with the amount raised. Schwartz has not reported what she has on hand. Meanwhile, Tom Wolf took in almost $13.3 million, most of which was from a $10 million check he wrote to himself - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gov-mccord-boasts-6-mil-on-hand/54164/ (http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gov-mccord-boasts-6-mil-on-hand/54164/)

I'd still say McCord has the edge in the primary he is the strongest candidate for the General by far and would crush Corbett, Schwartz advantage in the polls will fade as the primary election grows nearer and the ads start dropping.

Allyson Schwartz has left Third Way, (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/23/allyson-schwartz-third-way_n_4654563.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003) partly because of their letter about Elizabeth Warren.

Hopefully she decides to go the whole way and pull a Gillibrand.

Awesome! Her connection to Third Way was a big reservation I had about her.

She was never really a Third Way type/moderate anyway. Please. Worst political act ever.

I'm voting for John Hanger.  Bout time we legalize marijuana.

Your deciding issue is marijuana. Really?

So is mine (normal college kid).

It's not like that would ever get through the assembly anyway. I doubt it would even get through a Democratic controlled one, considering the overall meekness of PA Dems in general.

Corbett thanks you.

That's true.  Still he's well qualified and Allyson Schwartz has actually been a bit of a corporate sellout in some respects. 

In what ways? I'm still open to changing my vote, so I'd like to hear it.

>implying hanger has more than a 1% chance in the general

So you're voting for a guy you think is unelectable? ???

Rob McCord looks like the strongest candidate in this race by far I don't see anything special Schwartz other than her being a women...

Would GE voters seriously be turned off by a candidate for their position on marijuana, or at least enough to vote for Corbett?

He's not unelectable by any means - his positions on energy would turn people off from voting for him than pot. However, I'm just stating facts - progressives seem to be coalescing around McGinty, and despite Hanger's grassroots efforts, he's still in fourth place. He's not likely to get past the primary.

So the 1% was his chances of winning both the primary and the GE? I thought you meant he had 1% chance of beating Corbett if he was already the nominee.

They'd be turned off by a candidate that's making that his priority or so it seems.

To be honest, Hanger and Corbett would be a toss-up in the GE because of his stances on energy (along with a few more issues), but I'm voting for him in case that 1% happens. I like to think idealistically, but the man himself basically said that to have a chance at victory he'd poll at 15% of the vote by December, and the most he got was 7%. He'd have a chance in the general, but as far as the primary goes, he's hanging on by a thread.

Marijuana will not win alone here.

Yeah, I'm not too keen on supporting Hanger since he'd likely be the weakest possible nominee and I really want Corbett gone. What do you think about McCord and McGinty?

I would have loved for McGinty to drop down to PA-6 a la Meehan, but she'd be a fine candidate. McCord I've heard is more economically moderate but pro-union, so lean plus.

Speaking of Hanger's (over)emphasis on marijuana, he now has billboards about it - http://www.politicspa.com/hanger-unveils-legalize-marijuana-billboards/54516/ (http://www.politicspa.com/hanger-unveils-legalize-marijuana-billboards/54516/)

Anyone think McCord is gonna pull a De Blasio and start having his family in ads and campaign with him to appeal to black voters?

()

He had a Facebook picture with a text about the voter ID ruling over a picture of his family.

So Phil, do you want to see Corbett stick with it and attempt to win?  Or would you rather him get primaried?

Ed Pawlowski is dropping out of the D primary, endorsing McCord. (http://www.politicspa.com/pawlowski-to-drop-guv-bid-endorse-mccord/54691/)

Only a matter of time.

Corbett and Cawley were officially and unanimously endorsed for re-nomination at the GOP State Committee meeting this morning.

So the PA GOP are giving up on the governor's race, then?

I'm not sure Corbett will lose, he might recover.

 Only 23% think Corbett deserves re-election (http://www.bctv.org/special_reports/government/franklin-marshall-college-poll/article_7797b1e4-8ab8-11e3-b909-001a4bcf887a.html)

Also shows 56-39 support for gay marriage, 58-36 against marijuana legalization.

A status update by Kathleen Kane on her review of the handling of the Sandusky case reveals that emails from Corbett's tenure as AG that were thought to have been deleted have been recovered. (http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=7434)


I'm sure nothing incriminating will come out of this for Corbett.

I'm still betting Corbett wins reelection

So much for joking. Just saying.

There's absolutely nothing no polls indicating he would be re-elected there has been no rebound in his approval rating months away from the election November I don't what your basing your assumptions on him winning on.

Let me save him the response:


"Yes but Pennsylvania usually re-elects their governors and I think he will beat Schwartz easily."

There are several arguments for it. No polls have shown him with a chance of winning...but it's February. He's begun his election year push that has been described as a "move to the center." His budget address focused on increased funds for special education and funding for rape and domestic abuse victims. It has gotten more positive play than any other budget address.

The Dems are going to have a bloodbath in the primary and whoever emerges is going to be short on cash and a damaged reputation. And the Corbett campaign will obviously take a lot of swings (they already are). A lot.

I've never been one of these people that believed the pattern of re-electing Governors was absolute but its existence speaks to PA's cautiousness. With a Dem nominee that will have been severely attacked throughout the year, the electorate here might not think it's worth it to swap one unpopular figure for another.

But as of now, the status of this race is clear.

Yeah - that's why I think this Leans D. Not out of the question, but trends alone won't carry him.

Will the primary really be that bloody? It's a little over 3 months from now. It's not like it's one of those states where the primary is in August or September.

Then they deserve to lose

State Sen. Rich Kasunic is retiring. (http://www.politicspa.com/sen-kasunic-to-retire-triggering-swing-district-battle/54928/) He holds a SWPA seat based in Somerset and Fayette counties.

R+1 I guess?

Most likely.

Yeah, I don't see the primary being too damaging to the eventual nominee, especially since IIRC this is the Democrats' #1 target this cycle, so the short on cash thing won't last.

There you have it, boys. NEW! Forum conventional wisdom: Corbett can get used to four more years in the mansion.

Um, not sure why the criticism. Is Snowstalker wrong somehow? ???

I literally have no idea what Phil is talking about.

Congrats Phil

Wolf is running some very good, "get to know him," ads on television, with his telegenic daughters.  I thought they were good ads.

It undermines the "Corbett slow walked it" argument a bit, but not entirely.

One problem is that Corbett has said, publicly, that they got the first tip that Sandusky was doing stuff on campus because of a tip sent to the Centre County DA in October 2010.

The DA there is elected, and she is a Democrat, first elected in November 2009.  Corbett endorsed her opponent in 2009, who was the incumbent.  She was re-elected, unopposed, in 2013, got both party nominations, and won by the largest margin of any candidate for that office since at least 1981, including one that also ran unopposed.  If she backs that up, there is no "slow walking" question.

...

It's a joke because everyone around here takes the opposite of what Snowstalker says as the truth.

Dem State Committee unsurprisingly didn't endorse for Governor at their meeting over the weekend. However, there is a story being spun as embarrassing for Schwartz: she came in second in the vote and it wasn't really close.

McCord - 154
Schwartz - 77
Wolf - 59
Hanger - 16
McGinty - 15

Three things: McCord is posting a hugely misleading graphic with these results and the headline "McCORD WINS!" McGinty coming in behind Hanger is pretty sad. Finally, Wolf is undoubtedly getting traction.

And things are already turning ugly between McCord and Schwartz (this gets especially bad when you're from the same county and competing in a primary). Former Philadelphia City Controller and huge Schwartz supporter/surrogate was quoted saying, "He's [McCord] a f**king a*****e." Not unfamiliar vocabulary for Saidel but noteworthy that it's getting ugly and it's only February.

http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics/state/&id=244653531& (http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics/state/&id=244653531&)

State House Speaker Sam Smith is retiring after 27 years in the House and two terms as Speaker. He was facing a more conservative primary challenger. He barely beat his unknown primary challenger in a shocker back in 2012.

I think it will be McCord or Wolf, at this point.  Wolf is running commercials on broadcast TV in Phila in the daylight.

Well, his avoiding a humiliating primary loss helps delay the PA GOP totally jumping the shark by a couple years at least, so.....

McCord's been twice elected statewide as Pennsylvania State Treasurer, I'm betting he wins the Democratic nomination for the governorship in May.

On the other hand, Corbett is hoping the Dems pick Schwartz or some left-winger, so he can beat the snot out of them in November.

Schwartz isn't a flaming liberal, but she sure isn't moderate either. Her main issue just isn't a good fit, and it gives Corbett room to eke out a victory.

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

Because Republicans having a wave in a redistricting year means that there are no Blue Dogs anymore. ::

Critz, Holden, and Altmire were gerrymandered out of their districts, Kanjorski just broke down because of a few Akin-esque comments, a scandal, and a strong challenger, but only got carried by the wave in 2008, and Carney lost in 2010. There's still a decent chunk of rural Democrats who are socially conservative, and are pro-life there. 2008 is also irrelevant because of a wave. Of course Obama's going to win by 10 points.

I wouldn't be surprised if there turned out to be more pro-life Democrats than pro-choice Independents or Republicans.  PA is one of those states where party ID doesn't necessarily match with ideology, is it not?

Also, I should point out that even Casey, Jr. received a 100% rating from NARAL in 2011.  He may not support abortion, but he's not as pro-life as he used to be.

Dude, we've been over this: 2008 wasn't going to be about partial birth abortion votes. The fact that the economy tanked gave Obama the big win. McCain's campaign threw a Hail Mary by running those ads (which I don't even remember).

And, as we have also discussed before, the link of Schwartz to abortion is a lot stronger than Obama's. Please stop this disingenuous routine of acting like they're the same. People are going to be very wary of Schwartz because of her history.

Danke schoen. Good to see someone else sees PA as more than two cities.

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

So if the abortion issue wasn't strong enough to take precedence over a "Democratic wave" and the "economy collapsing", why would it take precedence over Corbett's disastrous tenure as governor?

 A total of 54 percent of voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases while 37 percent say it should be illegal in all or most cases. (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1719)

Among Democrats:
33% Legal in all cases, 35% Legal in most cases, 14% Illegal in most cases, 9% Illegal in all cases

Among Republicans:
12% Legal in all cases, 19% Legal in most cases, 39% Illegal in most cases, 25% Illegal in all cases

So pro-choice Republicans actually outnumber pro-life Democrats in this socially conservative bastion of Pennsylvania. Independents are also solidly pro-choice.

It isn't the 80s or the 90s anymore.

You know Corbett is praying that Schwartz is the Democratic nominee, because he will tie her to the unpopular President Obama.

I still believe Corbett has a good shot of reelection if McCord isn't the nominee

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

What Accomplishments? The only accomplishment under Corbett was to offend Gay People when he compared Homosexuality to incest as far as I'm concerned.

BOLD PREDICTION: CORBETT WILL CAMPAIGN FOR OFFICE.


SAFE R

The accomplishment of not running an abortion clinic, duh. ;)

McCord didn't run an abortion clinic. It's clearly going to be more of an issue if someone like Schwartz is the nominee. Please stop comparing apples to oranges, dude. You are even annoying people that are on your side.

Running an abortion clinic and possibly having ties to the Gosnell clinic is going to get far more coverage in a state race (especially in a state with restrictive abortion laws) over a national campaign where the narrative was about the economic collapse. You really have to stop comparing the two. Of course Corbett's record is going to be the main focus but you're living in a fantasy land if you think Schwartz's history in that "other field" (which I believe was wiped from her website. Must not be taking campaign advice from you) is going to get as much play as Obama's support for partial birth abortion in a Presidential campaign waged in the midst of a financial meltdown.

Plus, PA is more partisan in Presidential elections. Dems "come home" far more often than in state and local elections. 

>accomplishments

Of course it's going to be "more of an issue" if Schwartz is the nominee. But the fact that people are acting like it will be the nail in the coffin of her campaign and nullify Corbett's 30% approval rating is hilarious. Yes, I'm sure the 37% of PA who thinks abortion should be illegal all/most of the time will be voting Corbett if Schwartz is the nominee, but since there's likely quite a bit of overlap between that 37% and the 30% of voters who approve of him, no big loss there. How is Schwartz running an abortion clinic going to turn off voters who think abortion should be legal all or most of the time? It isn't. Even "soft" pro-choice voters aren't going to think Corbett, who they already know and hate, is suddenly the lesser of two evils just because Schwartz ran an abortion clinic.

We wouldn't be talking about abortion if McCord was the nominee the focus should be on Corbett's dismal record, Schwartz would just give Corbett the ability to divert from his record and talk about Schwartz's.

I still don't think it will matter all that much against Corbett, whose deep unpopularity will drive the result of the race no matter what. Though a good argument for McCord would be that he'd probably get re-elected much easier than Schwartz would.

You can continue to cite one poll all you want but no one with more than two brain cells really believes only 37% of people in this state believe abortion should be illegal in most cases.

And it could still turn people off even if they identify as Pro Choice. People are fickle, my friend. Voting for someone that got her start in politics by running an abortion clinic might be a bridge too far for the "I'm Pro Choice but I'd never, ever personally get an abortion, it disgusts me, etc." folks.

By the way, Schwartz is going to catch hell for a lot more than just the clinic stuff. That's just what will personally turn people's stomachs. The Corbett campaign would have a blast with her championing of Obamacare, for starters.

I'm pretty sure whoever the nominee is could defeat Corbett I just think McCord will have the easiest time and the biggest margin of victory. Schwartz may win by 5 or more points but I could see McCord pulling out a blowout.

Underestimating Corbett is not a good idea, though I think it will be close.

Underestimating Corbett? I'm basing this off every poll for the past few years, he's deeply unpopular and not recovering, his base doesn't even like him. Any competent candidate would easily defeat him. He has made countless gaffes not to mention the PennState sex scandal hanging over him I can't see how this will be close.

We'll see.  I think it was Phil (?) who noted the Dem primary battle is going to be costly and bloody.  A wounded warrior will emerge to fight Corbett.  His true pub base not liking Corbett doesn't scare me much, because they're never going to support the Dem candidate.

Huge news on two fronts today.

Jack Wagner is now in the race for Governor. He obviously has a huge opening in his native western PA and anywhere that isn't the SE. He'll also get a good deal of institutional support even though the party is officially neutral (which surely had a lot to do with his decision to run). He'll obviously be viciously attacked from the left though.

Scott Paterno, the Dem in the family, threw his hat in the ring for Lt. Governor.

Ugh. Will Wagner ever go away?

Hemster, I've been trying to tell folks that.

Corbett should look at these examples of how governors were considered toast in their respective elections, but won reelection:

Lawton Chiles of Florida and Pete Wilson of California, both in 1994: both had horrible first terms and dreadful approval ratings, but managed to win reelection: Chiles won with the "Old He-Coon" comment directed at Jeb during one of their debates and Wilson won by good old fashioned race-baiting over Prop. 187 and abolishing racial preferences.

Jay Paterno.  But who cares, this family is nothing but a bunch of rotten attention whores.

New here; but, to throw in my two cents...

I hope that Tom Wolfe will win the Democratic Primary; him or John Hanger.

I think it's safe to say Hanger is the most liberal of all the Democrats running in the primary.

Who does command a following in the "T," where the last Lt. Gov democratic nominee was from.  It complicates the race.

Oh. Right. Oops. Too many of them. :P I remember Scott from his 2004 Congressional run.

Of course it complicates it.  The thought of him as Lite Gov makes me want to literally puke.

Paterno won't get the LG nod

Wolf is mounting a early lead in the primary; leading with 40% to Schwartz's 14% and 8% for Rob McCord.

http://www.delcotimes.com/general-news/20140225/tom-wolf-pulls-ahead-in-new-dem-gubernatorial-poll (http://www.delcotimes.com/general-news/20140225/tom-wolf-pulls-ahead-in-new-dem-gubernatorial-poll)

I'm shocked at how poor McCord is fairing.

Yeah, the surge was to be expected but that's more than I imagined. From literally worst in the last Harper poll to a clear front runner. That said, it won't last. The ad barrage was necessary when you're unknown but now he's the clear target. The others have the money and support to do it.

Right now, Tom Wolf is the nice guy from the countless TV ads that were seen during the seemingly countless snowstorms of the season. Give it a month or less and his negatives will be up.

I could see Wolf and Schwartz destroying each other allowing McCord to slip through.

I just hope Wagner doesn't get the nomination. I prefer Schwartz, but I'd be satisfied with anyone besides him.

Wolf - 36%
Schwartz (next closest) - 9%

Jack Wagner has not been mentioned in polling yet.

http://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-wolf-36-schwartz-9/55506/ (http://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-wolf-36-schwartz-9/55506/)

Congrats, Snowstalker.

'Tis a shame Hanger isn't from New Hampshire. Or any state where retail politics can work, tbh.

Just about to post this.  It is the ads.  They are good and he is running a lot of them.  Wagner was not in the mix, however.

Wagner... meh... I suppose he's better than Corbett.

He's too conservative on social issues; and I do think that if he starts to be in play for the nomination; everybody will hit him on being so conservative for a Democrat.

Maybe a huge Wolf victory will allow the democrats to take both chambers ;D, and then to pass Medicaid expansion!

Everything I said.

Paterno, with a 1 point lead in Lt. Gov. race: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/jay_paterno_tops_2014_lt_gov_d.html#incart_river_default

48% undecided.

Seriously? I don't get how the Paternos still have such a following.

Corbett is polling worse than Santorum was in 2006 he's not even breaking 40% in any of these polls I think a challenger like Wolf who gets a lot of crossover appeal could break 60%.

Is anyone on the air but Wolf? And are any of the non-Allyson Schwartz/Tom Wolf candidates self-funders?

Katie McGinty aired her first ad on T.V a few days back. I think the others are all probably self funded; but especially Hanger, McGinty and Litz.

1% of the adults in PA went to Penn State.  The Paterno name is extremely well known.  Critz (sp.) is one point behind him, so it necessarily a massively strong showing.

Including myself.

Personally, he's never done anything in his entire political career... so...

The probability that I will be voting for him is slim.

I can't vote in the D primary, but Paterno on the ticket would make me more likely to vote for Corbett.

No dice; I don't care who they put on the ticket, I can't vote Corbett.

http://pcntv.com/2014/02/28/february-28-democratic-governors-candidates-forum/ (http://pcntv.com/2014/02/28/february-28-democratic-governors-candidates-forum/)

Democratic Governor Primary Debate.

The problem is, while I am not a big Corbett fan, the Democrats could do worse, and usually do.

Former Harrisburg mayor Linda Thompson running in PA-4. (http://www.politicspa.com/pa-4-thompson-announces-candidacy/55696/)

lol

Yeah, here is to hoping she won't make it out of the primary.

If she does, no way we are unseating Perry....

Well, that isn't happening anyway. This would just be added laughs. :)

By the way, the Mayor of York has endorsed her good friend Tom Wolf.

Sawx, do you know if Gray's made an endorsement?

Not surprising about the endorsement of Wolf; though I did not expect it so early.

Corbett is forestalling (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/tom-corbett-food-stamps_n_4908431.html?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000013) cuts to the state's food stamp program.

Can he be any less obvious?

Torn between Wolf and Hanger (and this will be my first vote).  I want to vote Hanger, but Wolfe is the only one of the viable candidates I can stomach.

CD13: (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/12/bill-clinton-marjorie-margolies-_n_4948289.html) Bill Clinton to stump for Margolies next month.

Deadline day was Tuesday. Seven Dems filed: Wolf, Wagner, McCord, Schwartz, McGinty and Hanger. Bob Guzzardi filed on the GOP side. Everything we expected. 

For Lt. Governor: Mark Smith, Brandon Neuman, Mike Stack, Jay Paterno, Brad Koplinski and Mark Critz.



We do have a PA 13 thread, you know... ;)

Hanger just pulled out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/john_hanger_withdraws_from_cam.html#incart_river_default

Next question is, how many signatures did Guzzardi get on his nominating petition?  Will Corbett challenge?  The last I heard was 2,600 (2,500, with 100 from ten different counties was needed).

That means Corbett has a good chance of winning reelection.

Yes, in the same sense that David Dewhurst had a good chance of avoiding a runoff. ;)

Renomination, yes, but not reelection.  Today, I'd say it will be a Democratic gain.

Are you on drugs? Honest question.

Awesome. And so did Jo Ellen Litz, though she didn't stand much of a chance either since both lacked cash and support and those one-issue campaigns never work, especially when it's something as minor as marijuana. Though I find it odd how Hanger gave Wagner the cold shoulder and said something nice about every other Democratic candidate except him. 

Statistically then, this means Schwartz has a 20% chance of getting the nomination, though this will likely be a race between Wolf, Schwartz, and McCord. Wolf is definitely favored, but I'm keeping my endorsement for Schwartz since she's probably the best qualified to be Governor. Her Congressional record on foreign policy and homeland security is terrible, though she wouldn't need that as Governor and the rest of her record is great. She can balance budgets, has good environmental and education records, is committed towards women's rights and the war on drugs, pro-minimum wage, pro-union, pro-gay rights, she's close to perfect. Hopefully, she can get a lot of help from the DGA and other outside groups because she'll desperately need it against Wolf.

Litz most likely just didn't have the signatures. I don't remember any announcement about her withdrawing. Again, not that it mattered.

Sawx, I'm NOT on drugs. Never used that crap ever in my lifetime, considering that I'm an USAF veteran.

You cannot rule out a comeback for Corbett.

Just saying. Same folks who were predicting that KBH was going to beat Perry in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but Perry kicked KBH's ass by 21 points (51%-30%) went onto defeating Bill White by 13 points in the general election:55%-42%., carrying 226 out of 254 counties.

Pennsylvania is not Texas. Perry won because of Texas's Republican lean, Corbett has to deal with his terrible approval rating in a light blue state.

Oh, I'm not ruling it out by any means. I'm just saying, to say he's favored at this point in the game is ludicrous.

The only way Corbett wins re-election is if he uses higher taxes as a wedge issue against the Democratic opponent.

Just heard about former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine (D)'s son committing suicide.

Very awful.

Jay Paterno's nominating petitions are being challenged:  http://www.centredaily.com/2014/03/15/4085857/rival-questions-jay-paternos-nominating.html

I would not rule out a Corbett re-election, but at this point, I would still call it unlikely.  I do expect the gap to close (as it has).

What about the Legislature?

Not likely to flip. Won't rule it out but Corbett has a better chance of winning than the leg flipping to Ds.

Has it? It seems pretty consistent that whichever Democrat is ahead in the primary is beating Corbett by double digits (Schwartz before, Wolf now).

Yes, it has.  He is off his lows.

Also worth noting Wolf's advantage is mainly name recognition. I'd expect a 5 (if Schwartz gets the nom)-8 (if Wolf/McCord get it) point Dem win, but a slim Corbett victory can't be ruled out.

It is closing and the Democratic AG is not doing the eventual nominee any favors.  Big scandal breaking with Kane.

What, this?

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=9474452

Sounds like it was a crappy case against some crooked Dems she declined to prosecute. Unless notably more comes to light, it'll only be the True Believers on the right "swayed" by this "scandal"

Yeah, the case seems pretty week. I don't think you need to bribe Democrats to vote against Voter I.D.

It has gotten a lot more than the right, with Seth Williams (D), the Phila DA, being critical.  The AG's Office had them on tape taking money, and Kane didn't scream "entrapment."

Now she is showing up at the Inquirer office with her attorneys and say that, on the advice of counsel, she won't answer questions.  Her handling of it is making it worse.

McCord is entering the air war:  http://blog.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2014/03/on_the_road_in_the_lehigh_vall.html#incart_m-rpt-1

Yeah, not good for Kane when Williams and The Inquirer are ripping you a new one. We're talking about elected officials taking expensive gifts without reporting it and cash but Kane thought the case was racist (that's going to look even more foolish now with Williams blasting her) and supposedly claimed that those criticizing her are sexist. 

Her stock is sinking fast. Horrible week for her.

And what part of this made you put scandal in quotes, Badger? Kane's handling of this or the actual acceptance of gifts and cash? If the latter, uh...

Won't be a factor by the time she runs statewide.

It may be a factor in this one.  Except for Williams, it is damaging the brand, and it is making Corbett look nonpartisan (which is more than he did in the last 9 years). 

She is suppose to do an "investigation of the investigation" of the Penn State Scandal, and this will make whatever the result is completely worthless.

The scandal is growing daily and Kane is almost to the point of no return.  When an AG shows up at the Inquirer offices with two lawyers and says that on the advice of counsel, she won't answer any questions, it is very bad (and largely self inflicted).

 

Yeah. Ok.

Corbett is in such bad shape politically that he would have to rig the election to be re-elected.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2012

So what does Nate Silver have to say about Corbett?

()

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/

Silver here discusses elections of 2006 to 2009.

The typical incumbent who was successful enough to get elected the first time can usually add 6-7% to early levels of approval to get a fair assessment of his vote share in the November election. (I would have expected reversion toward the mean, with those starting out way behind gaining the most and those far ahead seeing some support slip away). Such is the same whether the incumbent politician starts with 30% approval or 60% approval. An incumbent politician who starts with 44% approval will likely get 50% of the vote and win.

Politicians who seek re-election with approval below 35% are rare. Most spare themselves the trouble. 

Consider that appointed incumbents rarely do well. They didn't campaign for the office, and they may not know how to campaign -- and if they run, they usually gain little from their approval rating to the election. Maybe they need 50% approval with which to win.

An incumbent Governor or Senator is usually shown running against the average challenger and running a campaign of usual competence. To be sure, there can be incumbent politicians who face an unusually-strong challenger and run re-elections campaigns of unusual incompetence in a bad year for their Party and lose despite having 50% approval to begin with (George Allen in 2006). It's bad form for staffers to beat a heckler, and that probably did in the political career of George Allen. 

So why do politicians start with 51% of the vote and get approval ratings around 45% and win re-election? After they get elected they face much carping from the Other Side. That tears down approval ratings. Politicians can't be in campaign mode all the time; they must govern or legislate. But once the governing and legislating ends and campaigns begin, the opponent has to prove himself better than the incumbent. If good enough, an incumbent shows why he wins. If he is as awful as Governor Corbett, he shows that voting for him the last time was a huge mistake. 


()   

So how can Tom Corbett win re-election? With his putrid approval rating, he shows that electing him was a mistake in 2010.  He might pick up 7% from his approval rating to his share of the vote in November against an average opponent in an average environment for his Party... and he would probably lose 57-43.

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.

In 1986, Bob Casey, Sr, barely got 50% of the vote.  Less than 18 months prior to his re-election, he lost a major campaign for local government tax reform; it required a constitutional amendment that lost by about 70-30. 

In 1990, Bob Casey, Sr. won the greatest majority of any governor since 1926 and the greatest re-election since governors could be re-elected.  He won by greater than 2 to 1.

Incumbent politicians can recover from political failures. Just look at Barack Obama. He has promoted some legislation that has failed to get enacted, and he has made appointments that have failed. Good politicians take chances but never set themselves in a position in which everything collapses if one item on the agenda fails. 

They can't recover from scandals or mishandling them.

Calm down, bro. Wipe off the keyboard and chill.

I have been watching this for a week, and lived through the Dwyer/Benedict and Preate scandals, plus a bunch more local ones.  I have never seen one develop this quickly.  It is banner headlines in the Inquirer and the people lining up against her are not Corbett people.

Okay, so there is a "scandal"...whatevs... She ain't running for anything and she probably won't be if this stuff is for real

It reflects favorably on Corbett, as she basically ran against him in the election.  Kane just managed to do something Corbett never could; she's made Corbett look competent and nonpartisan in comparison.   

The former, obviously.

That said, even taking JJ's breathless pearl-clutching with a grain of salt, the added factor of the Philly DA blasting her and arriving at an editorial board meeting essentially just to plead the Fifth!?! :o

This may have legs after all. Mind you, it's a long way to say how it'll affect her in 2 years running either for re-election or against Toomey. And an even bigger jump yet to say even in the best case scenario for Republicans that this will actually sway more than a thousand votes statewide for Corbett in November (especially if he faces a relative outsider like Wolf).