Talk Elections

I figured this would be a good thread to have. I've regained my interest in Greek politics recently, having found that doing a bit of research on the topic is an excellent way to procrastinate, so I can even make a big and informative first post!

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Brief Intro: Greek Political Parties

ND: New Democracy, the center-right party that's in favor of austerity and the bailouts. Was a member of the old two-partyish system before everything went crazy. They're the main partner of the current coalition government.

PASOK: Panhellinic Socialist Movement, the center-left party that also supports austerity as a necessity, which has caused them to lose a lot of their supporters. They currently support the government and were the main opponents to ND before all these new parties showed up and PASOK imploded.

KKE: The Greek Communist Party, unreformed since the days of the civil war. They've been around for ages and are always in Parliament winning roughly the same share of the vote, but they're notoriously stubborn and have only entered a coalition once, for about a year, since the fall of the dictatorship.

SYRIZA: The Coalition of the Radical Left, the second largest party (or, technically, "party group", because they're a coalition of dozens of different parties and organizations) in Parliament and the most prominent opponents to austerity.

ANEL: Independent Greeks. A rightist anti-austerity party that stole a fair bit of votes from ND to enter parliament in 2012.

DIMAR: The Democratic Left. A small and new party that campaigned with a rather nuanced (some would say "vague") approach to the bailout and austerity. They joined the coalition government with PASOK and ND, ostensibly to provide leverage so that ND wouldn't try anything too extreme.

XA: The Golden Dawn. Some consider them Neo-Nazis, but some think they're just Nazis. Insane extremely rightist party that loves fascist symbolism and really hates immigrants, Germany, and everything else non-Greek.

The Greek Parliament has 300 seats. 250 seats are awarded proportionally to the nationwide popular vote (with a three percent threshold) while the other 50 seats are given as a "bonus" to the party that polls the highest. Because of this 50 seat bonus, first place is very important!

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Division of Parliament

ND: 125 (129 were elected)
PASOK: 25 (33 were elected)
DIMAR: 16 (17 were elected)

total seats for government: 166 (was 179 after June elections)

SYRIZA: 71
ANEL: 20
XA: 18
KKE: 12

independents: 12 (4 former ND, 7 former PASOK, 1 former DIMAR)
RIKKSY: 1 (a former PASOK MP who started "Radical Movement of Social Democratic Alliance")

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Most recent opinion polls

http://www.grreporter.info/en/syriza_first_party_alexis_tsipras_not_convincing_prime_minister/8215 (http://www.grreporter.info/en/syriza_first_party_alexis_tsipras_not_convincing_prime_minister/8215)

VPRC Marc Pulse SYRIZA    31.5%    28.8%    26.0% ND 26.5% 26.4% 21.5% PASOK 5.0% 7.5% 6.5% DIMAR 5.5% 6.1% 4.0% ANEL 6.5% 6.9% 7.5% KKE 6.5% 5.9% 5.5% XA 12.5% 11.8% 13.5% other 6.0% 6.6% 6.0%

Yeah... that's a pollster consensus with Syriza first, ND second, and Golden Dawn third. For a sombering thought, note that Golden Dawn were significantly underpolled by everyone in both the May and June elections last year.

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Recent news from Greece

Syriza is attempting to develop a more unified party structure so it can better appeal to voters and appear more capable of governing. (http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_04/12/2012_472949)

Samaras is talking about a cabinet reshuffle (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/19/us-greece-reshuffle-idUSBRE8AI0PT20121119); he wants PASOK and DIMAR to become more involved in the cabinet but is also thinking about kicking out a couple of DIMAR's Ministers because they're flaky on austerity.

Syriza leader Tsipras predicts new elections will be held soon (http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/337219). I think I might tend to agree with him, given the rates of defection PASOK is seeing and DIMAR's lack of unity (three DIMAR members voted against the party on the austerity package, but unlike other party's dissenters they weren't kicked out).

I'll go ahead and cross-post this stuff here too, since that other thread was just weird.

Bump

Samaras just had a confidence motion pass to reinforce party discipline ahead of a bunch of difficult austerity votes. The confidence motion had 155 votes, which notably is less than the 180 they will need to prevent new elections next spring

Didn't a bunch of GD MP's (including their leader) get arrested a while back? Whatever happened with that?

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_01/12/2014_545056

It seems like Tsipras has been consulting a lot on defense and foreign affairs lately, including with the current government. It looks a bit like he is taking a crash course on these topics. My understanding is that he's getting seriously prepared to become prime minister.

Just so everyone's up-to-date with everyone's favourite joke party, PASOK are renaming themselves the Democratic Party. As expected, they can't even do that right - Wikipedia maintains they changed their name at the start of this month, but the media still seem intent on calling them PASOK. Oh yeah, and Papandreou is sulking.

Oh, the irony.. 

I think the US Democrats should rename themselves PASOK, that would be fitting.

the Pan American Socialists of Obama and Klinton?

Holy shyt. They renamed themselves after the Democrats to seem MORE left-wing?

I don't think it really deserves a separate thread on the IE board, because it's just the parliament voting, but the Greeks have accelerated their presidential election to December 17 (even if the term of current president Karolos Papoulias doesn't expire before early March). They need 180 votes to elect one and if they can't it will lead to a parliamentary election.

Samaras will make his choice of candidate known tomorrow. If they fail on the 17th there will be a second poll on December 22 and a third and final round on December 27. If they don't get a candidate elected in the third round Samaras will be forced to call an election, which according to Greek political journalists will be either January 25 or February 1.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2014/dec/08/japans-recession-deeper-german-industrial-output-live (http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2014/dec/08/japans-recession-deeper-german-industrial-output-live)

The background is that the Euro-zone countries have just given Greece a 2 month extension on their  loan package and the government says they don't want to risk uncertainty. They claim the move will:

"prevent the opposition from undermining Greece's economy and directing messages of political uncertainty to financial markets"

I can't see a scenario where the opposition (SYRIZA) doesn't win a plurality. I also can't see them forming a government. They won't win a majority of seats, and none of the other parties are viable coalition partners. SYRIZA won't work with PASOK, the party of austerity, and of course KKE won't doesn't even acknowledge SYRIZA. The only right-wing party that might enter a coalition with SYRIZA is ANEL, but that would be a very unstable and short-lived government.

With that in mind, I have to wonder what is going to happen with this extension and how the markets will react over the next two months. I'm not very optimistic.

Is there anybody who could get 180 votes? I don't see any,way to avoid early elections.

PASOK wouldn't enter a coalition with SYRIZA, but I'm sure the Democratic Party would consider it!

Non-sarcastically there's also the possibility of Potami as a junior partner

I suppose they could agree on a well respected non-political figure (artist, scientist etc.) if they really wanted to, but I doubt there is any will to think out of the box.

Not that it matter much, but according to Wiki it's actually 200 in both the first and second ballot, and then declines to 180 on the third ballot.

If SYRIZA, PASOK, and the KKE have a majority, they will form a government

SYRIZA isn't going to reject PASOK if it makes the difference between forming or not forming a government, they're not stupid.

Same with the KKE. You can't use their past behavior to predict how they would react in this situation because there's never been a situation like this in the past.

Ah, I had forgotten about The River. Isn't that a lot of ex-Potami and DIMAR people? I guess it's a possibility. Though I have my doubts that any of the "Serious People" parties want to attach themselves to SYRIZA. And honestly, I can see a number of people within SYRIZA not wanting to form a government. They are at the zenith of their power now. Once they become the government, they have to make a decision which will either cost them most of their votes or plunge Greece down a very scary path.


If you're unaware, KKE is the last remaining old-style Stalinist party in Europe. The median age of its Politburo is in the 70s. The leadership have repeatedly denounced SYRIZA as revisionists and splitters (SYRIZA left KKE in the 90s to form a new party) and refuses to work with them in any way. A few years ago, when KKE joined with the police to beat the hell out of protestors, a lot of the people they were beating on were SYRIZA members and voters. The two do not play nice.

KKE can best be understood as a political sect where a group of people cling to the anachronistic beliefs of their forefathers long after they have died out in the rest of the world. An American parallel would be if Father Coughliln's National Union for Social Justice had survived WW2 and still had dedicated supporters, who kept reelecting a dozen Congressmen time and again.

The latest poll:

Syriza 32.5    
ND 26.5    
Pasok 8.0
Anel   4.0    
Golden Dawn 7.5    
Dimar 1.0    
KKE 6.5    
Potami 7.5    
Others 6.0

Syriza/Potami are at 40% alone (and have a solid majority with Pasok). KKE are irrelevant at the moment. ANEL is quite close to the 3% threshold and actually under (2.6%) in the second latest poll, if they don't get in things will be slightly easier.   

With the 50 seat bonus 40% will be enough to a majority.

If PASOK doesn't enter into a coalition with SYRIZA, it will probably split into two parties over the issue.

There are already some splinter parties (Agreement for the New Greece, Dynamic Greece and the New Reformers), which were part of Elia for the Euro-elections.

40% to Syriza/Potami with about 7% wasted votes will give them 108 seats, if you add the bonus that's a majority of 158. If ANEL is out this will be more solid. There is a good chance Pasok will be irrelevant.

Metron even had Syriza/Potami at 43.7% combined on December 1-3.

I was thinking a more major split between Papandreou and Venizelos.

If they are not needed and Syriza doesn't want them there would be no basis for a split.

I can't imagine how they wouldn't be needed. It would be risky to depend on The River alone.

I also think it's odd you people keep talking about SYRIZA "not wanting" PASOK. They don't want PASOK because they've been promoting austerity. If PASOK joined a SYRIZA led coalition, they wouldn't keep promoting austerity, at least not nearly as much as they do now.

SYRIZA doesn't like PASOK because of PASOK's policies. If PASOK's policies changed, SYRIZA would have no reason to keep disliking them.

Those clashes took place in 2009, when ND and PASOK were still the largest two parties and no one had any idea who, if anyone, was going to break the two party system. KKE and SYRIZA were both minor parties competing with each other to see who would lead the left. That battle is over now, SYRIZA won and the dynamic is now changed.

From what I know, Papandreou is more open to a coalition because he is desperate to be in power again.

However here is the situation for Syriza: once they are in power, they face some very, very bleak decisions. About the only easy free kudos they can get is to announce inquiries into corruption in the "old regime", which many PASOK ministers were very complicit with.

As for KKE, Syriza are likelier to form an alliance with ND than those weirdos. The Communists are sort of like the "testimonial parties" of the Netherlands: they have no interest in governing or joining a coalition, they're just ... there.

This is currently an article on the front page of KKE's English website:

http://inter.kke.gr/en/articles/SYRIZA-the-left-reserve-force-of-capitalism/

KKE will never, under any remotely realistic circumstance, join a coalition with SYRIZA.

Papandreou seems legitimately left-wing, although he's certainly a power monger as well. I am reminded of how this whole mess started, when Papandreou called for a referendum on austerity, which was basically his way of coming out against austerity at a time when that was considered politically unrealistic.

It's more possible that KKE will form a coalition with Golden Dawn than with SYRIZA.
If you watch any political talk-show then you will notice that the representatives of KKE save their harshest attacks not for the government which practices austerity but for SYRIZA.

The "serious people" may not have a choice if the polls don't change their way during the campaign. The poll I showed  gives Syriza 137 seats and it's not even their best recent poll (that's 34.5%) All polls give a majority to Syriza/KKE/Golden Dawn combined making the serious people a minority and they even give Syriza/KKE a majority making the non-socialists a minority.

Regarding a Syriza majority they get 150 seats for 36% with 10% wasted votes, that is unlikely, but actually not completely unrealistic if ANEL drops below the threshold, as they have been in some polls.
 

PASOK carries an awful lot of bagage in the form of corruption, nepotism and clientilistic networks, It might very well be more attractive for Syriza to avoid them if possible.

You really don't know anything about Greek politics then.

Stavros Dimas has been nominated as presidential candidate. I don't know who he is but he is also vice-president of New Democracy, so my guess is that he is not really a consensual candidate.

Former Wall Street laywer, which seems like a ripe excuse for Syriza/ANEL to reject out of hand. Honestly, ND should have nominated some fluffy charity worker - then they could have played the "oMGz Syriza is so partisan and extremist, they opposed our bunny rabbit of a candidate."

Yes, this is really stupid. A respected non-political figure would be the obvious move.

Wall Street Lawyer 1968-69
Consultant in the World Bank 1969-1975
Deputy Governor of the Hellenic Industrial Development Bank 1975-77
Deputy Minister of Economic Coordination (28 November 1977 – 10 May 1980)
Minister of Trade (10 May – 11 October 1980)
Minister without Portfolio (11 October 1980 – 21 October 1981)
Parliamentary spokesperson for the New Democracy party (October 1985 – June 1989)
Minister of Agriculture (2 July – 12 October 1989)
Minister of Agriculture (23 November 1989 – 13 February 1990)
Minister of Industry, Energy and Technology (11 April 1990 – 29 July 1991)
Secretary-General of New Democracy (1995–2000)
Senior Member of the Political Analysis Steering Committee of New Democracy (2000–2003)
Head of the New Democracy delegation to the Council of Europe (2000–2004)
EU Commissioner for the Environment (2004-2010)
Deputy Leader for ND (2010-present)
November 2011 to 17 May 2012 also Minister of Foreign Affairs

Talk about establishment,,, and 73 years old.

This might be useful if you want to understand the conundrum we're in as a country.

http://www.parapolitiki.com/2014/04/attaining-recovery-abandoning-democracy.html#sthash.Pc0s9mXi.gbpl (http://www.parapolitiki.com/2014/04/attaining-recovery-abandoning-democracy.html#sthash.Pc0s9mXi.gbpl)

Attaining recovery, abandoning democracy

...

 In the name of some obscure made-in-Greece concept of “Europe” and the country’s future place in it, Greece is being ruled by a government which doesn't exactly behave in a very Εuropean way, meaning the very core of Εuropean values, such as the Εuropean acquis of the Rule of Law and Good Governance. The Greek government has been repeatedly disrespectful towards the Constitution and frequently tries to scare the people off for short-term political gain. In the name of stability, the Troika is being portrayed as the ultimate enemy, invented as such by the Greek political system in order to just make sure that Greece will not change so much that it no longer needs its old political bureaucracy.

Nowadays, more than fiscal recovery, a breath of fresh air is very much needed in the Greek political system, far away from the politicians of the past, most of them being evidently prone to corruption and clientelism. Greece should be rescued in a real European way, not in a dangerous post-soviet style of governing, which could only lead to the restoration of the old or the creation of a new system of oligarchs in the country, fated to fail, once again, in the not so distant future.

It looks like the government may make it after all. They got 155 seats, there are 24 Indies to court and while the leadership of ANEL and DIMAR are against it a number of their MPs are willing to break party discipline on the issue. There is a petition going round in parliament to support electing a president and apparently 172-176 MPs are behind it now, so the government only needs an additional 4-8 votes, that looks doable, but it will be close.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-greece-elect-a-new-president-of-the-republic (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-greece-elect-a-new-president-of-the-republic)

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-parliament-elect-dimas-for-president (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-parliament-elect-dimas-for-president)

The breakdown among Indies should be:

13 Yes
8 No
3 Maybe

So 168 + 4 deserters + 4 maybes (3 Indies and 1 potential deserter)

Also: "The final wild card is Golden Dawn. While it is widely assumed that the neo-fascist party will vote in lock step against the government defections from the party cannot be ruled out."

The rounds are now set to December 17, 23 and 29. So six days between each instead of the minimum five.

The opposition:

SYRIZA 71
KKE 12
Golden Dawn 16
ANEL 12
Democratic Left 10

So 121 combined.

EDIT: The petition includes a vague promise of early elections somewhere in 2015 (after completing the negotiations with the Troika and officially ending the Memorandum) and a commitment to constitutional reform incl. directly elected president (needs to be approved by two successive parliaments, so important to get it through in this one).

It will be so... amusing... if the government remains in power due to defections from Golden Dawn.

Even if it happens, the political cost will be immense. Golden Dawn is viewed now by the vast majority of voters as a criminal organization and nobody in their right mind wants to be associated even in a tangential way with them.

This is false.  It was actually KKE who left Synaspismos.  Basically what had happened was that KKE and EAR (a left-wing party that wanted nothing to do with the USSR) allied in 1989 forming Synaspismos, hoping they could win some seats from PASOK which was in bad shape due to a banking scandal.  Synaspismos was part of a grand coalition for a few months along with ND and PASOK, until the 1990 election when ND won an outright majority.  All KKE members who felt betrayed left Synaspismos.
SYRIZA didn't exist until the '00s when SYRIZA formed a coalition with smaller left-wing parties.

Anyway, regarding this election, I suspect ND and PASOK will get the 180 votes they need.  I doubt the independent MPs are willing to lose their nice, fat salaries.
If they somehow fail to elect a president, I predict a SYRIZA/Potami government.

Papandreou has made a public statement about the political situation that is so critical of the government that political observers in Greece are now certain he will form a separate party if there is going to be an election.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreou-to-launch-new-party (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreou-to-launch-new-party)

“The unprecedented absence of the Government and the Opposition from the front of dealing with the deeper causes which led us to the crisis and to the verge of a national tragedy, both instead hiding behind anti-memorandum slogans.”

Also argues the government (and Syriza) does not "take on the entrenched clientelist interests which are the true source of the troubles rocking Greece" and ignores the "true dilemma" which concerns the transition to a "post-clientelist" Greece.

Even if Papandreou has been critical of the government for a long time it is the impression that sending out such an extremely critical and harsh statement totally denouncing the government his own party is a part of as a complete failure and doing it at this critical time means he has now decided to split from Pasok/Pasok - Democratic Alignment/the Democrats or whatever is the official name of the party at the moment ;)

Some Indies considered likely or certain yes-voters have declared they will vote against Dimas and this has  led to DIMAR and ANEL closing ranks and supporting their leaderships no position. Observers now estimate that 132 will either vote no or not show up. Syriza officials claim there will be 137 no/abstain votes. Anyway, it looks like the tide has changed.

I wonder whether a new Paprendeau outfit could hoover up the remaining PASOK people. I'd imagine he could make a decent crack at To Potami as well. (i.e. the Very Serious moderates who find the leftists unthinkable but Samaras unpalatable).

Good news for everyone: Golden Dawn has suffered a fall in the polls recently, below the resurgent To Potami and drawing parallel with both the commies and The Most Democratic Olive PASOK Tree (or whatever it's going to be called come next election)

XA falling into fourth place is a very good thing. The Greek Constitution requires the President to give the second place party a mandate to try and form a government if the largest party can't do it, and then give that mandate to the third largest if they can't do it. It would be an absolutely terrible political situation if both SYRIZA and ND fail to form a coalition with XA in third.

Just imagine- the two big parties fail, then a bunch of literal Nazis get some semblance of official recognition and three full days of maximum publicity right before a new election is inevitably called.

Days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks of "major problems" if they vote in the "wrong" way. Pierre Moscovici avoided an explicit endorsement, but praised the "impressive" strides made by the government.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/12/us-greece-eurozone-juncker-idUSKBN0JQ16E20141212

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN0JU19T20141216?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Seven Golden Dawn MPs granted prison leave to attend presidential vote!

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_16/12/2014_545471

A couple of polls.

MRB (December 15)

Syriza 30,8%, ND 26.7%, To Potami 7.3%, Olive Tree (PASOK) 7%, KKE 6.4%, XA 5.7%, ANEL 3.6%, Other 10.6%.

GPO (December 15)

Syriza 28%, ND 23.1%, To Potami 6%, KKE 5.5%, PASOK 5.1%, XA 5%, ANEL 2.7%, ANTARYSIA 1,3%, LAOS 1,3%, Undecided 15.3%.

ANEL boss Panos Kammenos is under fire after he claimed on TV that Jewish institutions don't pay taxes.. lol ANEL.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/opposition-leader-claims-that-jews-dont-pay-taxes (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/opposition-leader-claims-that-jews-dont-pay-taxes)

And the head of the Korydallos prison parole board has allowed the seven detained Golden Dawn MPs to vote for President. How very democratic...

These statements by European officials are very counterproductive. They just reinforce people's perception that our current government are tools of the EU and give credence to SYRIZA's demagoguery that Europe's conservative governments are trying to scare us in order to help their ideological brethren of ND. 

Of course they are counterproductive. Every time I read hypocrite statements by the great protector of tax evaders, I feel more tempted to throw myself into the arms of demagogues. Are Samaras, Passos Coelho or Rajoy anything different from obedient pawns?

My God is Juncker stupid?

The expected breakdown of Indies before tonight vote:

7 "Yes":

Katerina Markou, Spiros Lykoudis, Panagiotis Melas, Grigoris Psarianos. Christos Aidonis, Kostas Giovanopoulos, Giorgos Davris.

10 "Present=No":

Odysseas Voudouris, Theodoros Parastatidis, Chrysoula Giatagana, Petros Tatsopoulos, Mimis Androulakis, Rachel Makri, Markos Bolaris, Paris Moutsinas, Vassilis Kapernaros, Theodora Tzakri.

7 undecided or mixed:.

Vassilis Oikonomou: Will vote present tonight, but says this will not predetermine his stance in the next two votes.

Mika Iatridi has said she will not change her vote throughout the process. She said she most probably will go for “present”.

Giorgos Kasapidis and Yannis Kourakos hasn't said anything,

Byron Polymerase has said he "would become the 180th if there were 179", but unclear what he will do tonight.

Former Golden Dawn members Chrysovalantis Alexopoulos and Stathis Boukouras are expected to go for 'yes', but haven't declared.

Good grief, why is the EU establishment so bone-headed?

Of course they are. How do you think we got into that mess.

It's scary how they have absolutely no understanding of the average citizen...

Dimas only got 160, 135 No (officially present). Big dissapointment for the government. Ministers had unofficially said anything below 160 was a disaster.

It will be interesting to see the breakdown. They claimed seven certain indies. Either some of their own people are among the five that didn't show up (unlikely) or they got even less than that.

RIP Samaras Government

Among the seven "certain" Yes voters Former ANEL MPs, Panagiotis Melas voted no, so down to max six.

Former ANEL Yiannis Kourakos, who was considered fairly safe Yes also voted no.

Among the five absent were former Golden Dawn MP Boukouras and former ANEL MP Giovanopoulos (one of the "seven certain"), but the three others are unconfirmed,

Oh dear- this doesn't look good.

Does anyone know whether it is possible to nominate new candidates after the first round?

Of course. You can field a different candidate at every round if you wish so.

I saw that the threshold is 200 in the 1st and 2nd round, and 180 only in the 3rd round. The second round does not seem winnable, but the government may try to field a more consensual candidate in the 3rd round.

The government knew right from the start that only the third round was winnable. They never counted on winning the first two. They are just tests.

There is no mentioning in the press that they might consider it, but then again this was a much worse result than expected, so maybe.

Right from the start I thought bringing a well respected artist or scientist in play would have been the smart move, but the Greeks have no tradition for non-political Presidents. Dimas is on the ND left and has done a lot for the environment as EU-commissioner. I think they considered him as someone acceptable to the left, while still not problematic for right wing Indies. They have the problem that they need support from both left wingers and right wingers, so not easy to find someone better unless they go non-political.

There is also the hypothesis among some "experts" that they are gambling on a "parenthesis of the left". Handing power to a Syriza led government which will then crash and be forced to call an election, which will then give a solid majority to the old parties. Get the threat out of the way, so to speak. Dunno if thats realistic, but it would explain some things.

haha

relevant bit of Greek Constitution:

Yeah, it will take (too much) time to get organized and actually be able to form a working Syriza-government if they win.

"Let us make a very realistic working assumption: that the current parliament on the 29th of December will be unable to elect a President of the Republic. As such, within 10 days parliament will be dissolved and elections announced – within 30 days – which will be won by the party which holds a steady lead in the polls over recent months: that is, SYRIZA.

At a first glance, even with an absolute majority the new government will first have to elect a President of the Republic and subsequently seek a vote of confidence from parliament. That means that the soonest we will have a government will be the 15th of February!

To put it simply, the new government will have about 2 weeks to come to an understanding with the Troika to conclude – if it hasn’t happened until then – the review of the bailout program and reach an agreement over a precautionary credit line, or to negotiate its own program as Alexis Tsipras has committed to doing, in the event that SYRIZA wins the elections.

One question is immediately raised: Why did Samaras and Venizelos - despite the pressure of the lenders to do so - not request a six month extension, or at least a three month extension of the program in order for the new government to have time to negotiate?"

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/the-unpatriotic-politics-of-the-coalition-government (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/the-unpatriotic-politics-of-the-coalition-government)

Haha wow so they're literally already undermining the Tsipras Government before it begins

If they are contemplating the "Parenthesis of the Left" scenario, it's clear that -in order to stay in power- they don't care if they are undermining the present and the future of the country. The easy conclusion is that Samaras and Venizelos lack of moral legitimacy before the Greek people, because they are part of the problem. Therefore, getting rid of both is the first step to change anything. Hopefully for better, but that's uncertain. 

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/the-trap-set-for-tsipras-a-parenthesis-of-the-left

New poll shows the gap closing. Still, its conducted on 14-17. We are still waiting for one polled after the vote. Hopefully they do one today and tomorrow. ANEL is really on the edge now.

SYRIZA 28.5% 
New Democracy 24.9%
PASOK 4.8%.
Golden Dawn 5.8%
Communists  5.4%
The River 5.4%
Independent Greeks 3%
Undecided 7.8%

56.1% prefer a new president elected by parliament, while only 40.4% favour snap elections.

PASOK may be willing to look into the old Indie/DIMAR proposal of a three step compromise plan:

1. Consensus on electing a president - new candidate.
2. Launching constitutional reform process (incl. directly elected president)
3. Setting a date for early general elections later in 2015 (most likely autumn)

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/pasok-might-side-with-independents-initiative-for-wider-consensus (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/pasok-might-side-with-independents-initiative-for-wider-consensus)

^ that poll would give a parliament as follows (take it with a grain of salt though because the undecideds aren't factored in):

SYRIZA: 143
ND: 81
XA: 18
KKE: 17
Potami: 17
PASOK: 15
ANEL: 9

I think we can safely assume that a majority of politicians and their families in Greece would be in serious trouble if anyone started looking seriously at their past behavior (corruption, tax evasion, etc). It's a bit sad but I think a new political class would have to turn a blind eye on the past wrongdoings.

!!!

Breaking news:

ANEL backbencher Pavlos Chaikalos announced on a Greek morning TV show that someone repeatedly offered him bribes to vote for Dimas (http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/12/19/independent-greeks-mp-reveals-bribery-attempt/) and that he recorded one of the attempts and has already testified to prosecutors about it. He was allegedly offered €700,000 in cash, €2 or €3 million in professional contracts, and the full settlement of his current bank loans. The TV host said he was aware of another MP who had privately made similar allegations.

Yeah, TOC also had that story, but its not really surprising - maybe the price is a little higher than what I would have guessed.

From the ANEL press conference:

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/what-panos-kammenos-said-about-the-alleged-bribery-over-president-election (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/what-panos-kammenos-said-about-the-alleged-bribery-over-president-election)

Papandreou has declared he will launch a new party and are calling for an emergency, all-party government to change the Constitution and renegotiate with the international creditors.

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/12/19/george-papandreou-to-launch-new-political-party/ (http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/12/19/george-papandreou-to-launch-new-political-party/)

Don't twist your panties in a knot B.K.
Chaikalis is a well-known comedian and real-life buffoon who makes Pepe Grillo look like the second coming of Winston Churchill. I'll be extremely surprised is this whole affair produces even a whiff of serious evidence.  

The prosecutor's office has confirmed that Chiakalis did testify and provided them with a copy of the recording, and he's already named one "George Apostolopoulos" as the middle-man who directly offered the bribes in the recording. Does Greece have laws against "false reporting of a crime" and/or slander laws that would (or, I guess, should) have prevented Chiakalis from pulling this stunt if it was a complete fabrication?

At any rate, whether this is true or not, ANEL is milking it for all it's worth, presumably in a desperate attempt to stay relevant enough to pass the electoral threshold (http://en.protothema.gr/kammenos-and-chaikalis-press-conference-on-the-bribery-attempt/):

Now they got (some) footage of the attempted bribery.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/recording-released-of-alleged-bribery-attempt-of-mp-chaikalis (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/recording-released-of-alleged-bribery-attempt-of-mp-chaikalis)

EDIT: Its been removed from TOC, but maybe its still on some other sites. It was parapolitika.gr, that published it originally.

All a bit dubious as well:

"It should also be noted that at no point in the footage can the mouths of the two men be seen and matched with the words they are supposedly saying. Additionally the audio and video seem to be at the very least out of sync. For example at about the 4.07 mark Apostolopoulos can be seen taking a sip of coffee when he is supposedly speaking."

"Everything you wanted to know about the Independent Greeks bribery scandal / fiasco / circus but were afraid to ask"

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/was-anel-mp-pavlos-haikalis-offered-a-bribe-of-3-million-euros (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/was-anel-mp-pavlos-haikalis-offered-a-bribe-of-3-million-euros)

Samaras offered to widen the governing coalition and to organize early elections before the end of 2015 once the bailout talks are complete. Apparently several independent MPs see that as an acceptable compromise, and the leaders of ANEL and the Democratic Left rejected the offer (but party discipline does not seem really high). We will see on the 23rd what difference it makes.

Ok so apparently Apostopolous testified something to the effect of 'yes everything that was recorded was true and accurate but I was just baiting HIM to see if he could be bribed, because I don't trust him and I wanted to catch him, and this was all on my own so nobody else knew about it (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/apostolopoulos-testifies-over-alleged-bribery-of-mp-haikalis[/URL)'

IMO either an actual attempted bribery took place, Chaikalis is a masterful troll who planned this all out with Apostolopolous and others to create the most electoral turmoil without technically committing any crimes they could be caught with. Probably relevant that Apostopolous used to work for ND then ANEL and now a bank- he's in a position to be the middle man for a bribe or the perfect collaborator for a ruse, but it's ridiculous to take his own story at face value

Also I really wish there were better English language websites doe greek news

Its basically the core of the original part of DIMAR-Indie compromise proposal, so some DIMAR MPs are bound to suppoort it.

EDIT: It seems to be identical to it, which makes sense. First Pasok said they supported it and then ND budged.

Prosecutor drops bribery case for lack of evidence.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/news/article/prosecutor-finds-no-evidence-to-alleged-mps-bribery-case

Second round is finished.

168 MPs voted for Stavros Dimas as new head of state while 131 voted present (=no). One MP was absent.

Changes:

The two former Golden Dawn MPs – turned independents Stathis Boukouras and Alexopoulos have changed their votes and voted for the government’s candidate and S. Kasapidis also voted ‘present’

K Giovanopoulos who was absent in the first vote has voted in favour of Dimas

V. Economou and Mikas Iatridis, who voted ‘present’ in the first round voted for Stavros Dimas.

No change:

Niki Founta and V. Kapernaros – both considered possible yes votes - voted ‘present for the second time.

All four absentees from the first round voted. Four of them voted no.

Another DIMAR MP has become independent, but she still voted no.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/presidential-election-round-2-who-changed-their-vote---and-who-didnt

Status is that 13 independents supported Dimas, 11 were against (incl. the new indie gal) and 1 stayed away. Still no deserters from DIMAR or ANEL.

"What the government needs to avoid snap elections in January/February is in effect, a Christmas miracle, as without significant numbers of defections (or an unlikely change in the party lines) of the small opposition parties Independent Greeks and DIMAR, it will be effectively impossible for the government to elect a new president."

 

It's rather interesting that DIMAR and ANEL are voting no because they will most likely not get reelected.  Maybe they're waiting for the last election to get more out of a deal either with ND-Pasok or Syriza.  DIMAR leader Kouvelis has already said that they might be reunited with Syriza soon and I suspect that he will be the next president

I am sure ANEL expects to be reelected.

DIMAR still being united behind a no is more remarkable, since the governments compromise offer was broadly identical to the original petition being send around by some DIMAR and some Indies.

The DIMAR/SYRIZA merger seems uncertain, because DIMAR wants to continue as an autonomous unit and have policy concessions, and with their current poll numbers I see no reason for SYRIZA to give them that.

Dimas has stated that he will not accept the presidency if elected on Golden Dawn votes, and a group of ND MPs  say they will vote against Dimas if Golden Dawn supports him to cancel out its votes.
Dimas has said nothing about independents that are former Golden Dawn members.

DIMAR merging with SYRIZA would not be surprising at all- they are splitters from not only SYRIZA but also from the same constituent party of SYRIZA that Tsipras himself was from. The leader of DIMAR spent a year as SYRIZA's Parliamentary spokesman, serving alongside Tsipras as the party's parliamentary leader. They go way back.

Actually the reason Kouvelis left SYRIZA to form DIMAR was because when Alekos Alavanos, the previous SYRIZA leader retired, Tsipras and Kouvelis were the two candidates that ran for the leadership position.  Tsipras was endorsed by Alavanos and had the support of the smaller radical left and green parties while Kouvelis had the support of the center left wing of SYRIZA.  Kouvelis and most of his supporters left the party soon after the election to form DIMAR and while they have been very critical of SYRIZA, after the May 2009 election when SYRIZA was asked by the President to try and form a government, Kouvelis was very supportive.  I think it would be good for Greece if the moderate and pragmatic DIMAR merged with SYRIZA, but I suspect that it might hurt their election prospects since the public seems to have a very bad opinion of DIMAR.  What's really funny is that Alavanos who was the main reason Tsipras became the SYRIZA leader has now left the party and founded Plan B a party that supports leaving the Eurozone (they had less than 1% in the EU elections IIRC).

By the way Bacon King, this is a pretty good website on greek political news:  http://en.protothema.gr/

Syriza would have very little to gain by merging with DIMAR, which is polling around 1-1.5% at the moment. If you add the fact that DIMAR wants policy concessions and to retain structural independence I see no reason why they would be interested. The only possible gain would be to secure DIMAR doesn't vote for Dimas in the end and prevent an election, but this advantage is wiped away by the fact that an election is no good for Syriza if they don't win it and taking microscopic and unpopular DIMAR aboard would be counterprodutive to that goal.

DIMAR "breakaway" the Reformists are merging with Potami with the aim of creating a third pole. This could become a safe haven for the centre-left Indies and make them more inclined to risk an election.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/the-reformists-and-the-river-announce-alliance

Live coverage:

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/live-the-final-vote-for-president-of-the-republic

It's over. Get ready for January 25 or February 1.

Basically impossible by now.

EuroCrisis II - This time it's personal

"This is now like half-time of a football match with one side up by 5-0. All that is left to see is the nature of the defeat for the government."

And it is official.. 121 against.

168-132 the final result.

I feel sorry for the President tbh. His position has just been used as a political tool.

Greek interest rates up 10% BEFORE the vote.

Merkel beside herself.

These elections are going to be insane.

Fantastic late X-Mas gift for any political junkie. One election to determine the future of the world's second largest currency.

168-132, not a single extra vote..

Athens Stock Exchange in freefall

Well, I predict ND will win again. They have been gaining steadily and when it comes down to the wire a lot of people will be scared. But it will be fun to watch for us outsiders.

Well, don't take greek polls at face value. SYRIZA will win handily this time but will fall short of a majority of seats.

Landslide Lyndon, I am curious, which party are you planning to vote for?
 

I don't know yet. They are all horrible.
If Papandreou goes ahead and forms his own party then I will probably vote for it.

Man, I would love to be a fly on the wall for the upcoming... discussions (negotiations?) between Prime Minister Tsipras and a bunch of EU/ECB/IMF technocrats.

In Austria, voters like to punish the party that calls/was responsible for snap elections.

In this case, SYRIZA (and some others) are virtually the ones who made the new election happen.

Are Greek voters different on this issue ? Lifting the party that called for snap elections to an election win ?

My guess: SYRIZA wins with a plurality, they make some noises and act tough for a while, the bond market goes haywire, they return to the kennel with tails tucked in, become the new ND.

Nah, the new Pasok.

A conversation between Pablo Iglesias and Alexis Tsipras on twitter:

‏@Pablo_Iglesias_
2015 será el año del cambio en España y en Europa. Empezaremos en Grecia. Vamos Alexis!! Vamos @syriza_gr !!


‏@atsipras
@Pablo_Iglesias_  Vamos a ganar! We will win! Θα νικήσουμε! #syriza #Podemos #SiSePuede

Also:
http://en.protothema.gr/on-the-3rd-of-january-mr-papandreous-party-formally-introduces-itself-to-the-greek-political-reality/

Well, supposedly the people didn't want snap elections. But the government and Samaras are so unpopular that it will take a major miracle for them to avoid being defeated at the polls.

Frankly the voters have become extremely cynical. They don't expect that a SYRIZA administration will change anything meaningfully to the better. They are also well aware of the dangers if they try to antagonize the EU leadership and Germany.
But the majority has adopted a "Let me die with the Philistines" attitude and will probably cheer on if we take down the Eurozone with us.

About as venal or maybe a little less, do you think?

Greece will be using the same system as in previous elections, correct? 250 seats distributed proportionally for parties passing a 3% threshold, and then 50 seats as a bonus for the top party just because?

To ensure majorities (and that the Commies wouldn't hold the balance of power. Yeah, about that...)

Yes, that's correct

I couldn't agree more: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/how-to-save-greece-now

Yeah, good luck selling that to the Germans.

If the two options left are a concerted haircut on the Greek debt or a unilateral default, the former is the less worse option for everyone: Greece, Germany and everyone else in Europe.

Maybe I overestimate her, but I think Merkel is able to choose the less worse option even if it harms her party.

Papandreou is not starting a new party.. no, no, nothing that trivial. He is starting a "progressive movement" named either Change Movement or New Change and with a platform that will be decided at a congress after the election... so "vote for change" delivered by a guy that has been around forever in charge of a movement without a program.

"A Movement which will work in the next parliament to secure all of the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the crisis.

A Movement which will give all of its powers to make a reality of the transition to a Post-clientelist Greece, with a vision of building a Greece of Justice and Creativity."


http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreou-announces-new-progressive-movement

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreous-new-party-taking-form

Still:

"a large percentage of the party’s candidates expected to be under 40 and relative newcomers to politics."

Well, nothing says "change" more than a party formed by a former PM whose family has been part of the highest echelons of the country's political class for the past 90-odd years.

Well that turned out to be anticlimactic... I had expected Papandreou to give us something with a bit of substance at least. 


I love a political party that tells us they will solve a problem with-out telling us how they plan solve it. ::)
The above statement could in practice mean almost anything, and since the party won't get a platform until after the elections it would seem they will fight the campaign on equally empty and meaningless rhetoric and talking points. If they actually manage to beat the 3% threshold I expect their parliamentary group to break down at the first tough vote.     

I give Papandreou an F for a jokingly bad attemt to create a new party. Someone should ask him why, since he claims to know the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the greek crisis, he didn't just solved the problem when he was Prime Minister. 

Bumping this since the elections are over.

ANEL will be in a coalition with SYRIZA or at least offer co fidence. Potami and KKE TBD.

Deputy PM who will be responsible for Eurozone negotiations is reported to be this guy: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giannis_Dragasakis

Tsipras will be at the Presidential Palace at 3:30 PM local time (2 hours, 10 minutes from now) to officially announce cabinet and take office as PM

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Two important names leaked: Dragasakis as Deputy PM overlooking the finance & economy ministries and leading negotiations with the Eurozone and Yanis Varaufakis as finance minister.

Tsipras's first act as Prime Minister: laying a wreath at a memorial where Nazis killed 200 Greeks (http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/jan/26/greece-election-syriza-victory-alexis-tsipras-coalition-talks-live-updates#block-54c65129e4b087a04fca5518)

I'M SURE THIS IS NOT SYMBOLIC AT ALL

Ha already sticking it to Golden Dawn.

I don't follow the internal machinations of Greek political parties as much as I should, but with that being said: why haven't Syriza and KKE formed a coalition? Does KKE view Syriza as "neoliberal" et al?

"Traitors to the working class" etc.

Let's just say that Marxist-Leninsts and Left-wing Radicals have a "tense" relationship.

Syriza was formed from people and factions that were expelled (at various different points over the decades) from the KKE for lacking sufficient ideological purity.

View the KKE as less of a "party" in the traditional sense, and more as just a statement.

Sounds like a fun government.

Any bets when early elections will occur? Maybe this summer? :P

Mostly to Merkel, I would think.

An early election isn't likely if the government breaks up because Syriza almost has a majority and will lose support after they start governing. You need a situation in which Syriza break up along factional lines and they start hating each other to the point where no cooperation is possible for an early election to make sense - which could happen of course, but is far from certain.

(a left wing breakaway from Syriza could very well remain neutral in votes of confidence if they still thought "Tsipras is better than the alternative")

Otherwise a Syriza-Anel breakdown just means a Syriza minority government with a new partner as tacit support or a new coalition.

So what, if anything, do we know about this Aristeidis Baltas character?

Also, was it expected that the new cabinet would be this much of a dudefest?

BK and I specifically advanced the SYRIZA blackmail theory of debt negotiations a while back. Turns out Dan Davies, a former BoE guy, got to that idea first and with much more detail. (http://crookedtimber.org/2015/01/25/greek-games-and-scenarios/)

Here's an argument: the only way SYRIZA can launch a massive stimulus program would be to drop out of the Eurozone, since every Greek government agency and bank will be squeezed out of the credit markets and the Europeans wouldn't keep funding. Ditto for any of their attempts to repatch the Greek labour system. The Greek government has been forced to keep a primary surplus, but that may not last very long as Greek tax revenues are already falling.

The only reasonable concessions I see SYRIZA getting is a lowering of the primary surplus to allow for a smoother transition in the crumbling health sector, and maybe some for migration policy. But that won't be enough for voters.

does anyone have a link to a list of the full members of the cabinet?
it would also be interesting to which factions in syriza the ministers and parlamentarians belong or come from.

edit: I found some lists myself:
hxxp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Alexis_Tsipras
hxxp://blockupy-goes-athens.tumblr.com/post/109332357655/kurzer-blick-auf-das-ministeriumskabinett with some additional information (in german), so the Alternate Minister of Immigration Policy seems to have a "post-autonomous" background.

and do you know which kind of electoral reform syriza proposes, esp. concerning the threshold?

The list which I got from Greek news wire ANA. 

New government announced
Jan. 27 (ANA-MPA) -- The new SYRIZA government on Tuesday announced the composition of its first cabinet.

The new government is as follows:

Prime Minister: Alexis Tsipras

Government Vice-President: Yiannis Dragasakis

Interior - Administration Reconstruction Minister: Nikos Voutsis

Alternate Minister for Administrative Reform: George Katrougalos

Alternate Minister for Civil Protection: Yiannis Panousis

Alternate Minister for Migration Policy: Tasia Christodoulopoulou

Deputy Minister for Macedonia-Thrace: Maria Kollia-Tsarouha

Economy, Infrastructure, Shipping and Tourism Minister: George Stathakis

Alternate Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Networks: Christos Spirtzis

Alternate Shipping Minister: Thodoris Dritsas

Alternate Tourism Minister: Elena Kountoura

Productive Reconstruction, Environment and Energy Minister: Panagiotis Lafazanis

Alternate Minister for the Environment: Yiannis Tsironis

Alternate Minister for Rural Development: Vangelis Apostolou

Deputy Minister for Rural Development: Panagiotis Sgouridis

Finance Minister: Yanis Varoufakis

Alternate Minister: Nadia Valavani

Alternate Minister: Costas Mardas

Education, Culture and Religious Affairs Minister: Aristidis Baltas

Alternate Minister for Culture: Nikos Xydakis

Alternate Minister for Education: Tasos Kourakis

Alternate Minister for Research and Innovation: Costas Fotakis

Deputy Minister for Sports: Stavros Kontonis

Labour Minister: Panos Skourletis

Alternate Minister for Social Solidarity: Theano Fotiou

Deputy Minister for Combatting Unemployment: Rania Antonopoulou

Health and Social Insurance Minister: Panagiotis Kouroumblis

Alternate Minister for Health: Andreas Xanthos

Alternate Minister for Social Insurance: Dimitris Stratoulis

Foreign Minister: Nikos Kotzias

Alternate Minister for European Affairs: Nikos Chountis

Alternate Minister for International Economic Relations: Efklidis Tsakalotos

National Defence Minister: Panos Kammenos

Alternate Minister: Costas Isychos

Deputy Minister: Nikos Toskas

Justice Minister: Nikos Paraskevopoulos

Minister of State for Combatting Corruption: Panagiotis Nikoloudis

Minister of State for Coordinating Government Operations: Alekos Flambouraris

Deputy Minister: Terens Quick

Minister of State: Nikos Pappas

Deputy Minister to the Prime Minister and Government spokesman: Gavriil Sakellaridis

Proposed Parliament President: Zoi Constantopoulou

The new government announced some measures today, but didn't see anything about its income tax hike to 75% on incomes beyond 500k euros.  Has it said anything about this yet?

The situation is getting pretty serious.  Greek Banks have lost over 40% of their value in 3 days since SYRIZA won the Sunday elections.  Billion has been pulled out of Greek banks since November, according to Moody’s, with more withdrawals likely amid fears that the life support from the European Central Bank will be extinguished.  Greece bank-deposit withdrawals accelerated in the run-up to the Jan. 25 election, reaching $11bn. Moody’s predicts that ECB funding will rise from $84bn to $98bn this month.  Total deposits in Greek banks stood at $185bn in Nov., according to the latest available data from Bank of Greece and as I mention above it has gone down since. 

Tsipras seems to indicate they will avoid "catastrophic clashes" with creditors but also claimed he cannot disappoint the voters.  Sounds like he is trapped then.  Also the new regime froze plans to privatize the public power utility PPC. It also said it had cancelled the privatization of national train operating company Trainose and the sale of a 67-per-cent stake in the Piraeus Port - Greece's largest - for which PRC's Cosco Group and four other companies had been shortlisted.  Yes, another good way to start by angering the PRC which would be another source of funds if negotiations with EU falls apart.

The government said it would immediately pass legislation to increase the minimum wage to 751 euros per month, raise pensions for those on low incomes and rehire thousands of sacked public sector employees.  Sigh.  This will make the funding needs even more acute and make the Greek negotiation position with EU even more desperate. 

I am eager to see what takes place now and see if Tsipras backs down or takes this whole thing supernova.  I am betting on him backing down.  I am already monitoring Greek ETFs for a time to get in just when it seems the whole situation will blow up before Tsipras backs down, which I am pretty sure will come.

Just so we are clear.  The FTSE/Athex Banks Index is now at 54.  In May Jun 2012 when the last Greek crisis was at its peak it was 160 at the lowest.   Greek bank funding and capital flight seems to be the biggest risk right now.

That proposal was in their May 2012 platform and they have not mentioned it since. There was zero mention of tax increases in the platform they ran on in 2015

Well, unless they raise SOME taxes, how are they going to fund their spending - especially, as they are refusing to sell things off.

Honestly, if I were them, I would sell Western Thrace to the Turks. Erdogan would pay a fortune :)

Well, raising taxes have no use with the widespread tax evasion. Raising taxes on people not paying any won't make any change.

Well, he could take their kids hostage, or something.

Well, yes, something has to be done about widespread tax evasion. I happen to think it's more logical to build a solid system preventing it and then raising taxes than the reverse. Doing it the other way would punish people paying taxes and would likely increase tax evasion.

Ok, fine. Do Germans have to coninue financing Greek government in the interim?

Their choice, but, you know, even ND would have needed more money. You can't turn around the economical situation of a country in 6 months!

Here's their 2015 platform:
http://links.org.au/node/4209

It's revenue neutral, with €12 billion from increased revenue, mostly to be earned from encouraging/coercing compliance with existing tax laws and the related debts that Greeks already owe

Tsipras appointed as his External Affairs Minister a well-known Putin admirer with ties to the infamous Aleksandr Dugin.
Splendid.

After Greek energy and finance ministers aired off their grievances about sanctions to Russia, any observer worth their salt has realized Syriza is also threatening a rapproachment with Russia as part of its negotiations - "the Russia card," so to speak.  (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-28/russia-sanctions-are-syriza-s-new-bargaining-chip)

There is something very clever about this move. Though Syriza's alternative foreign policy was telegraphed during the campaign, it does not seem like to me that people took it seriously. Now, a day before negotiations, the press is taking it very seriously. What Syriza is doing is compelling national decision makers to make a tradeoff between getting their money back and national security. While this is not enough to actually pressure the ECB into a debt writeoff, the hope would be to cause enough dissension among European leaders such that the ECB loses the pressure to play hardball with Greece.

While debt lended by the ECB itself is not up to negotiation (a member of the executive reiterated this fact this morning), a third of the package is debt from other Eurozone countries.

Of course, clever isn't enough for victory. All the meetings and press rumours right now are just gossip, really. The negotiations start on Friday, when Finance Minister Varoufakis meets with ECB chief Draghi. We'll see who makes the initial offer.

That is pretty damn clever.  So far Tsipras has played his hand very well.

It is clever, but dangerous. Because they could call the bluff and tell him to go get his refinancing in Moscow. Hitching himself to a sinking ship is dangerous. Also, that brings into the conversation not merely the eurozone, but EU itself - the others might decide that European collective decision-making would be better without any Greece involved. And leaving both euro and EU would lead to a real humanitarian disaster in Greece.

Well, this is going to be entertaining :)

Amateur Hour Keeps Traders Guessing. Bank stocks in Athens lost about $11 billion of their value after ministers in the newly formed government made some populist proclamations, namely, pledging to increase the nation’s minimum wage and halt privatizations.  Deputy Prime Minister Yiannis Dragassakis told people to essentially ignore those comments today, saying they were the product of inexperienced officials speaking out of turn. Greece is, he said, “interested in attracting investors.”

Russian investors, I presume.

he isn't rocking the boat with EU sanctions against Russia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/world/europe/european-union-russia-sanctions-greece.html?_r=0

http://www.parapolitiki.com/2015/01/new-greek-foreign-ministers-awkward.html (http://www.parapolitiki.com/2015/01/new-greek-foreign-ministers-awkward.html)

Professor Nikos Kotzias was nominated as the new Foreign Minister of Greece in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and he has already received severe criticism, for what is politely described by The Economist as "cordial relations" with the religious-nationalist segment of the Russian elite.

After a rather moderate career as an expert-diplomat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kotzias emerged as a prominent figure in the greek public sphere over the last years, when he supported some of the most populist explanations of the greek crisis.

In Kotzias' worldview, modern Germany should be blamed almost for everything. In fact, Kotzias regards the Eurozone crisis just as a Berlin-motivated plan to transform countries like Greece into modern German protectorates. The title of his last book is more than clear: Greece, a Debt Colony – European Empire and German primacy.

The problem in Kotzias' case is that he has crossed the line more than once and has pointed out some analogies between Nazi Germany and modern Germany of Angela Merkel. This has offered him some recognition among far-right parties and opinion-makers in Greece.

Here are some of his quotes:

-Germany believes that she found some free space to march in the Middle East and control Cyprus, the 'unsinkable aircraft carrier', geo-economically. To set foot in where Hitlerism failed to reach. (Epikaira Magazine, 18 April 2013)

-Germans want to pop up in the Middle East, a place that they failed to conquer under the guidance of (General) Romel. (Epikaira Magazine, 26 April 2013)

-Nowadays, Germany doesn't display biological racism, as it did during 19th century and in some part of the 20th century. However, Germany spreads financial racism and nationalism. (Interview in Eleytherotypia, 19 April 2014)

-Germany, in order to play its new role, which is desired by its own dominant forces, continuously reconsiders its history, aiming -among other things- to get rid of its responsibility for crimes it committed in the 20th century. (Personal Blog, 1 March 2014)

I have heard many ludicrous attempts to use the term racism where it doesn't belong, but "financial racism" is a new one.. ::)

I would expect Nikos Kotzias to be more of an ANEL pick. Has he any left wing credentials? Or did they chose him to accomodate ANEL?

He was a close adviser to George Papandreou but he left PASOK when Papandreou refused to consider him as Foreign Minister in 2009.

Varoufakis has a pretty full itinerary starting today - after meeting with Eurogroup President Djisselbloem today, he's meeting with George Osborne next week, as well as the French and Italian Finance Ministers and EU Commissioner Juncker.

The problem is that his first meeting is already a bit of a farce. At the press conference, Varoufakis announced his plan: negotiating with all partners (i.e. not with the Troika) to come to some negotiated end to the bailout schemes. Djisselbloem shot him down right after.

A picture says a thousand words, really.

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EDIT: A year ago, Greece had surplus demand for their 3-year maturity government bonds. Now the yield rates are at 19%. (http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/greece-3-year-bond-yield) Not as bad at 2011, but we're getting there.

What if...they really believe their weird strategy can be successful? I know everybody's always thinking that at some point Syriza will come around but these guys have no experience of being in government. Maybe they really are drinking the Kool Aid.

Most likely, they are. Well, you know what happens to those who do.

If I were Erdogan, I would start planning for taking over Western Thrace.

Then the Greek people will get what they voted for.

I note that ANEL got the Defense and Macedonia and Thrace portfolios. This is going to be fun.

As long as it is not Flavor Aid.

I mean, we should not be making fun of the Greeks. The old parties screwed up badly - the voters had every right to run them out of town. Pity, they chose the Kool Aid crowd instead - but they took a long time to be pushed that way.

Greece should have never adopted the euro. And, of course, once the crisis started, the right thing to do would have been to negotiate the return to the drachma and devaluation. Trying to deflate out of trouble was politically unsustainable - everybody knew that. Well, acting on wish and prayer, the "responsible politicians" responsibled themselves into irrelevance.

Now, of course, Greece´s foreign partners do share some blame. They should have, actually, proposed the way out of euro, and offered to provide means to soften the blow. But, then, again, German negotiators are not supposed to be representing the interests of Greek voters - Greece elects its own government for thos purposes. Unfortunately, it now elected a bunch of idiots, it seems. But, given the last few years, it is easy to see how one can think that even idiots would do better.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/greece-shuns-eu-bailout-cash-before-dijsselbloem-visit

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis set the clock ticking on Greece’s standoff with the euro area on Friday saying he’s ready to take his chances without a financial backstop rather than submit to more austerity.

Unless EU/Germany folds then we are looking at the collapse of all Greek banks without liquidity support from the ECB which will in turn will lead the the nationalization of all Greek banks and collapse of the Greek financial system.  I think in the end Tsipras will fold and come crawling back.

I doubt. He was elected on this. And not that he would ideologically object to a bank nationalization.

It will be an awful period for an average Greek, of course. That is why I have long believed that it should have been a "normal" Greek government that should have taken Greece out of the euro: they would have been able to do it more gently. This way, it will be much harder. And dealing with the consequences will take a generation, at least.

My condolences to the Greek public.

For the sake of balance, Varoufakis characterizes his views (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiIO4YciewU) in English on Newsnight. (start at 3:30)

Varoufakis says he did not say he will stop negotiating with the Troika institutions, but wants a "new agreement" without "representatives here ... to enforce and oversee the implementation of a programme that has utterly failed"

Nor did he say he wants to stop privatizations, but for the new government to begin a new auction.

I agree, it's really hard condemn the Greeks for running Pasok and ND out of town. But beside that I think we should give the Greeks a chance before we see whether Syriza was the Kool Aid. Some of the structural changes to the ministeries look promising, and that's something which have been noted outside Greece.

One of the main reasons, for how hard the rest of EU have dealt with Greece, is the fact that the past Greek governments after the crisis have been unwilling to make any structural reforms. Which meant that the only medicine you could force on Greece was austerity. If this new government start structural re-organisation, which lower the Greek corruption, it's not impossible that Syriza may get some extra good will compared to the old government which no one trusted.

The trolling continues...

New Greek nationalist defence minister resurrects old tensions with Turkey

Greece’s new nationalist defence minister has prompted Turkey to scramble fighter jets just days after taking office by taking a helicopter trip over the uninhabited islets off the Turkish coast that nearly triggered a war in 1996.

Turkish jets entered Greek airspace and were intercepted by Greek jets as the defence minister, Panos Kammenos, and military chiefs flew by helicopter to the islet of Imia to drop wreaths in memory of three Greek officers killed nearby in a helicopter crash 19 years ago, the Greek defence ministry said.

[...]

 “The reason the defence minister went there was to show his patriotism and to honour those who died there,” an Independent Greeks party spokeswoman, Marina Chysoveloni, said. “No one had ever done this in the last 19 years.“

Ankara did not confirm its aircraft had entered Greek airspace. “All the necessary precautions were taken by our side but, as our airspace has not been violated, there is no need for a reaction,” a foreign ministry official said.

...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/30/greece-turkey-imia-kardak-tensions-fighter-jets

France, US support Greece in debt battle: https://euobserver.com/political/127444

Just to balance this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/tsipras-damage-control-fails-to-budge-euro-officials-on-greece

"In the past two days, officials in Berlin, Paris and Madrid have rejected the possibility of a debt writedown as they held out the prospect of easier repayment terms, an offer that has been on the table since November 2012."

France offered "support, but not relief".

I'll quote Krugman, since common sense is fairly uncommon as of late:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/opinion/paul-krugman-europes-greek-test.html

It's possible to (how do you say in English) kick the can down the road for 10 or 15 years, by just delaying reimbursement again and again. There is no need for a writedown because if the eurozone survives, debt mutualization will inevitably happen at some point and the problem of Greek debt will be solved that day.

See

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/02/greece-politics-bonds-swap-idUSL6N0VC4GU20150202

It seems Varoufakis is proposing something somewhat similar to my compromise above he "will seek a "menu of debt swaps" including two types of new bonds - one indexed to nominal economic growth and one he called "perpetual bonds" to replace European Central Bank-owned Greek bonds "

Not really, since this deal has nothing to do with equity or government assets (and if Varoufakis did propose such a thing people will call for his heads). Basically, barring any inclinations of a writedown from debtors, Greece wants to renegotiate when their bonds reach maturity. The growth one basically reaches maturity at "when the Greek government can deal with it," and the perpetual ones reaches maturity at "never".

Greece will still pay interest/coupons on all the debt with their primary surplus, but essentially vows never to have another situation where the government is short several billion near the end of the month and have to max out another credit line from the Troika to fix it. To convince their creditors of this plan's credibility, Greece can pull out the Krugman argument: "we will have to be forced to collapse and default at this rate, so this is the best scenario where you won't get implicit writedowns through default."

Consider this Varoufakis making the first offer, I guess. Given the Europeans' cool reception and only a few more weeks of solvency, he has to bite his tongue and put something out. This is one of three proposals from him: the other two are the elimination of the Troika auditors and ability to negotiate with individual creditors, and reduction of Greece's mandated primary surplus to 1.5%, down from 4.5% now.



EDIT: Varoufakis's itinerary so far:
Friday, met with Eurogroup head Jeroen Djisselbloem; Sunday, met with French FM Michel Sapin; Monday, met with British Chancellor George Osborne; Tuesday, met with Italian FM Pier Carlo Padoan; Wednesday, will meet with ECB chief Mario Draghi; Thursday, will meet with German FM Wolfgang Schaeuble; meeting with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker TBD.

The Greek government hired French banker Mathieu Pigasse to advise them in the negotiations to scale back their debt. I heard him on the radio today and he seems like a pretty smart guy. He completely debunked the German/austericrats' arguments in a rational and non-demagogic way.

I agree.  I am saying they are similar in the sense that both my idea and his tries to link performance of the economy as a whole to the payout which could mean even higher over-payout if the Greek economy does very well down the road.

That's right regarding the GDP-indexed bonds most people talked about, where the coupon is some function of GDP growth or levels relative to a baseline (the Greeks actually tried this in 2012). The question remains: is this what Varoufakis is proposing?

Since this is breaking news, the details are frustratingly vague. But Varoufakis is, I think, proposing something different: bonds with a "bisque clause": (http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/03/21/why-i-signed-the-petition-for-a-portuguese-debt-restructure/)


Emphasis mine. "Inversely related" isn't really the right word here either - "monotonically decreasing step function" would be more accurate, but also hard to say.

Agreement found between Greece and the rest of the eurozone. My (very limited) understanding is that Greece basically agreed to continue with the bailout program negotiated by the previous government, and got very little in return. It's only a short term agreement and the next "battle" will be about what's coming after the bailout program.

Tsipras was forced to back down.  He was trying to expand the battlefield by refusing to fight on the ground of EU creditors.  He seems to have been forced to back down.  So the deal is Greece has to come back next week with what sort of reform commitments he is willing to agree to and the EU creditors will vote ya or nay on extending the bailout.  The reason he had to back off is because even though the Greek voters voted for his party, their Euros did not.  Since his election victory the Greeks pulled out a lot of Euros from the Greek banking system as well as delay paying taxes so tax receipts are falling way short of target.  This means that even if Tsipras defaults on all Greek debts he will still need external funding to stay afloat. 

There is only one outcome of this, Greek Euro exit or not. Repaying the debt or dealing with the consequences of possible default will have and it always will be on the backs of the Greek lower and middle classes.  The wealthy are wealthy for a reason, they will find ways to avoid paying, especially in the era of mobile capital.   Tsipras cannot change fundamental laws of economics.  His whole program  of relief for the lower classes was never possible other than in some minor and marginal ways.

The agreement is much more limited than you seem to think in my opinion. More details here: http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/greece-bends-eurozone-will-find-short-term-agreement/

Could be.  At the core bailout extension came at the cost of concessions including a commitment to spell out reforms within two days.  The reforms would be aimed at persuading its European creditors to extend further loans. Athens received no immediate loan assistance.  Tsipras did warn Greece that "real difficulties" lie ahead.  It seems that the reforms he has to come up with by next week will deviate dramatically from what he promised in his election platform. 

Daniel Gros, director of the centre for European policy studies points out:

"From a symbolic and therefore political point of view, the Greeks yielded on everything,"
"They can hope to receive nothing now... only to give,"

So Greece swept in an inexperienced party with unseemly cultural-liberal tendencies, which then formed government with a party with very unseemly cultural-ultraconservative tendencies, for, essentially, nothing? Wonderful. Absolutely wonderful.

Greek dictatorship here we come.

Alexis Flanby off to an excellent start.

First, no one had expected the Greek could have gotten more, at least no one knowing anything about the issue.

Second, the new Greek government seem to have made some institutional reforms which may have much more positive long term consequences than any deal with EU if they work (like strengthen the collective power of the government versus the individual ministers). Also if they begin to collect the taxes the Greeks owes, that will also have much greater effect. If Greece can get a real revenue surplus, and it's very possible as the payment of most of the debt including the interest have been pushed into the 2020ties, they will be in a much better position, at the next negotiations.

Well, we can safely say that Tsipras has vindicated his staunchest critics. He personally and his party seem totally unprepared to govern, despite the fact that it was a given they would be our next government for months now. The choice of an inexperienced narcissist like Varoufakis as our Finance Minister is just his most glaring mistake.

Also, the fact that Tsipras chose for President the right-hand man of Karamanlis, the minister responsible for our bloated public sector and the December 2008 riots, generated quite the backlash, even from right-wingers who consider the 2004-09 government responsible for our current predicament.  

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You should not become discouraged too soon. As Krugman wrote recently, " big fights are still to come".

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/opinion/paul-krugman-what-greece-won.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&module=Collection&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article

Despite what Krugman calls the "unholy alliance between left-leaning writers with unrealistic expectations and the business press, which likes the story of Greek debacle because that’s what is supposed to happen to uppity debtors", the Syriza government didn't show the servitude of the François Hollande administration. Remember that Greece is a bankrupt country and its economy only represents a 2% of the Eurozone. While it was unrealistic to expect major concessions from the great powers, the negotiations showed differences inside the EU membership and, according to James K Galbraith (who is the son of that Galbraith and advised Varoufakis in the negotiation), the Commission and the ECB were more "constructive" than certain national governments. For instance, Spain and Portugal fought bitterly any type of concessions to Greece due to domestic policy reasons. Both are struggling to convince their voters that austerity works, despite all evidence, and have a deep interest in the failure of the Greek government. Such attitude is not only a sample of servitude and misguided economic extremism, it's highly irresponsible. If Syriza fails and is humiliated, as many radicals would like, it will be a gain for the Golden Shower, which is awaiting for its window of opportunity. Chancellor Brüning implemented austerity in Germany in the early 30s and everybody knows the consequences.

Are you Snowstalker now? Are all of you now Snowstalker?

SYRIZA doesn't have the room to implement its platform without EU concessions. Velasco is right. Greece still needs financing, even after a hypothetical Grexit and debt default. We should accept a gradual path as opposed to a radical one that would be extremely risky for Greece.

Greece pass anti-austerity bill: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/euro-finance/greece-pass-anti-austerity-bill-312603


Syriza popularity is rising, so it looks like they suceeded to present it as a victory at home.

Talking of future negotiations, there are rumors about a 3rd bailout plan once the current one (extended until June) expires.

Are they also planning to eliminate the various tax exemptions to the Church and shipowners and to seriously crack down on tax evasion? That would be the best way to convince Europe that austerity doesn't always have to hurt the poorest.

Dunno, depends how much ANEL are in hock to the barons of the Orthodox Church.

I'm bumping this, because being this close to "game over" territory now, any general discussion should take place in the right thread.

A bank run is underway. The government has imposed a bank holiday until July 7 and capital controls (60 euro withdrawal per day).

Massive queues have been formed at ATM, gas stations and yesterday at super markets.
Here are some photos.

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Kozani

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Larissa

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Aegaleo, a western suburb of Athens.

It's pretty clear one of 3 things has to happen.

1. The banks compromise some
2. Greece declares bankruptcy
3. Greece exits the euro

The time for that is past.

What the heck is 1 supposed to mean?

Probably something like the GREEDY BANKERS submit to the RADICAL DEMOCRATIC WILL of the PLUCKY GREEK PEOPLE.

The only problem of course is that in our case the greek banks are the victims of Tsipras's recklessness and brinkmanship.
 

RIP YANIS :'(

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A narcissist to the bitter end:

Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today.

I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s referendum.

And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.

We of the Left know how to act collectively with no care for the privileges of office. I shall support fully Prime Minister Tsipras, the new Minister of Finance, and our government.

The superhuman effort to honour the brave people of Greece, and the famous OXI (NO) that they granted to democrats the world over, is just beginning.
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

The gridlock has been all about me! The creditors hate me and now I have valiantly decided to offer my resignation so that Greece may live. No word btw on his promise of a deal on Monday and the reopening of banks the following day.

is this game theory

bumping this so we have one thread to discuss it rather than the handful scattered about.

Passage in Greek Parliament is currently uncertain, Merkel has to deal with a backbench revolt against it herself, IMF hates the deal because it's too harsh on Greece

Hollande is officially going for a Eurozone parliament, as endorsed by Piketty and a handful of academics. Seems like a sensible idea, so it will never pass in a feasible form.

Who else thinks varafoukis is going to try and return under a non-Syriza banner?

Maybe they need a compromise on the lines of a EZVEZL. Also Remember the French made the Euro happen in the first place... don't rule them out.

Parliamentary committees have passed the deal.

French National Assembly passes the bailout. Tsipras tells his caucus that it'll be hard to remain PM if he doesn't have their support. Government estimates 30-40 rebels.

ND tells Tsipras he's on his own once the bailout measures are passed next week.

PASOK are coming in to the left of Syriza. Yes, that PASOK

Nice to be a minor party, completely out of power - you may be as irresponsible as you like. Something, surely, SYRIZA can very much empathize with.

Tsipras receiving a surprise phone call last night...

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Varoufakis votes "no" on the agreement.

Bailout bill has passed.

Some interesting articles on how the Greek crisis has caused the rise of a Eurosceptic left throughout the EU.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/14/left-reject-eu-greece-eurosceptic

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11742624/EMU-brutality-in-Greece-has-destroyed-the-trust-of-Europes-Left.html

Tsipras lost 38 MPs voting either no or present.

Where can one look up the results?

Saw it through a Greek journalist in my Twitter feed.

When will the greek electorate learn that A loan is NOT FREE MONEY.

? ? ? ?

Tsipras will stay, but reshuffle imminent and replace anyone who resigns their seat.

TOC has a few names:

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/news/article/parliament-approves-bailout-prior-measures-by-229-votes (http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/news/article/parliament-approves-bailout-prior-measures-by-229-votes)

"38 SYRIZA lawmakers abstained or voted against the government,  including former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, current Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, Deputy Labour Minister Dimitris Stratoulis and speaker of parliament Zoe Constantopoulou."

I found the full list:

http://www.newsbomb.gr/politikh/voylh/story/607562/yperpsifistike-me-229-psifoys-to-nomosxedio-tis-symfonias-diaforopoiithikan-38-voyleytes-toy-syriza (http://www.newsbomb.gr/politikh/voylh/story/607562/yperpsifistike-me-229-psifoys-to-nomosxedio-tis-symfonias-diaforopoiithikan-38-voyleytes-toy-syriza)

Well, its all Greek to me... ;)

If you run it through Google Translate, you'll at least get the names; even if it won't perfectly translate the entire article.

Eurogroup has agreed on a bridge loan. Greek interior minister says a snap September or October election is likely.

Google doc of Syriza dissenters in English (ministry and parliamentary sub-group listed as applicable)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EAZVy4bC0YDOceksy7BpdypRgMf-sPTu_M_OAMvxnoc/edit#gid=0

32 no votes, 6 abstentions, 1 conspicuous absence by a Left Platform MP

An snap election in under one year?

They really don't like this bailout program. So not only will the full 83 billion tranche is not going to be released. But most likely a grexit if a hypotectical Syriza-B splitting from the main party, made up of the rebels. comes to power that promises to leave the eurozone.  Or just Syriza itself if they decide to oust tsipras over the agreement and want a grexit.

Its not like Syriza has any other objectives at this point after failing to negotiate and trying to create a standoff. to force the EU to give them unlimited euros for a "stimulus programme" along with debt "forgiveness".

Tsipras is viewed as the best option available.

"Political commentator Nikos Dimou said Tsipras was likely to emerge stronger from a fresh ballot.

"Most Greeks do not want to return to the drachma," he told AFP.

"SYRIZA would win again, and by an even wider margin than last time"

http://www.ekathimerini.com/199616/article/ekathimerini/news/early-greek-vote-inevitable-after-syriza-mutiny-analysts-say (http://www.ekathimerini.com/199616/article/ekathimerini/news/early-greek-vote-inevitable-after-syriza-mutiny-analysts-say)

Well, I thought that was pretty much mandatory. EU wants things than needs constitutionnal amendments and such amendments must pass in two consecutive Parliaments.

just a pure plug: the "coverage" and dialog on AAD (http://atlasafterdark.freeforums.net/thread/930/greek-collapse-thread?page=18) yesterday far exceeded what you'll find here.

What bad faith. Had you posted this here there would be no problem.

it wasn't worth my time.

I am very proud of my contributions to that AAD thread

This is awesome: http://www.random-austerity-measure-generator.com/

Compared to the US Great Depression, the Greece situation started off very mild. But after the New Deal kicks in, the US starts making a good recovery while austerity keeps hurting Greece more and more.

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Any one of those would do a lot more good for Greece than actual activity of Mr. Varoufakis :)

Reshuffle done. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/17/us-eurozone-greece-reshuffle-list-idUSKCN0PR1Z820150717?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter) Spiegel says Tsipras may be PM for the long haul. (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-prime-minister-tsipras-shows-greeks-he-can-save-them-a-1044265.html)

With all the talk about a possible snap election polls start to get interesting again. Compared to the election Syriza has gained and Potami and Pasok are up as well. ANEL is back at the threshold and ND is has lost support.

Latest poll from Palmos Analysis from yesterday:

Syriza 42.5
ND 21.5
XA 6.5
Potami 8.0
KKE 5.5
ANEL 3.0
Pasok 6.0   
Others 7.0

(apparently the round it to the nearest half percentage point)

Pasokmentum! :P

Maybe Fofi Gennimata is a better communicator than Venizelos. At least she is a new generation and another gender. She is from a political family and her dad was a co-founder of Pasok, so hardly anti-establishment, but perhaps more appealing anyway.

Potamentum as well (and it sounds better..). There has been a shift to the left - likely some centrists that backed ND to avoid Syriza reconsidering - and Syriza actually seems to be rewarded for being "responsible". As Nikos Dimou said in the comment I quoted earlier in thread Greeks do not want to drop the Euro. Good to see the two sects (Golden Dawn and KKE) aren't gaining.

EDIT: Fofi G. is actually less than 8 years younger than Venizelos, so hardly another generation. She just looks younger.

New Democracy - which was completely humiliated after the failure of the Nai campaign, which they threw a lot of their resources, infrastructure and general machinery at - may have a female leader of its own. Dora Bakoyanni, a member of the liberal wing (you might remember her leading one of the million tiny liberal parties that splintered off ND at the start of the crisis) apparently wants the job - she was the runner-up when Samaras (a more traditional rightist) was chosen.

Notably the daughter of Konstantinos Mitsotakis prime minister in the early 90s, who was toppled by non other than Samaras! who formed his own party and withdrew support over Mitsotakis not taking a hardline on the whole Macedonia thing

Tsipras wants a snap election as soon as agreement is reached on the third bailout. Mulling either Sept. 13 or 20. (https://twitter.com/FGoria/status/623851159300616192)

ECB adds 900M of ELA.

Guardian reporting of rumours in Athens that Left Platform might form a breakaway party, which Tsipras welcomes.

My dream election of Tsipras (pro bailout coalition) vs Varoufakis (anti bailout coalition) is coming closer to reality :D

This seems to originate from German media bureau MNI citing an anonymous source.

The ND caretaker leader wants new leader elected by a primary on August 30. Will announce the procedure on Friday - speculation Samaras might try a comeback..

http://www.ekathimerini.com/199816/article/ekathimerini/news/meimarakis-set-to-propose-election-of-new-nd-chief (http://www.ekathimerini.com/199816/article/ekathimerini/news/meimarakis-set-to-propose-election-of-new-nd-chief)

WSJ also saying a SYRIZA schism is expected, though not till the party's national congress this fall. Suggesting a snap election would be later in the fall. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/greek-prime-minister-alexis-tsipras-remains-popular-despite-tough-bailout-deal-1437563249l)

Says who? Samaras is out for good and won't be missed by anyone.


Doubtful. The Troika will probably dissuade Tsipras from that and tell him to wait till October, after the first assessment of how the program goes.

The artice doesn't say who - it just refers to "reports on Wednesday."(see the link)

Oh hey Lyndon, thought you'd vanished, or got sent to a gulag or something. How's your area of Greece holding up?

Parliament just enacted the next batch of reforms. 4 of last week's defectors voted with the government.

Looking at the recent polls, at the very least I'm glad the Greek people have yet to lose their sanity, based on the GD/ANEL/KKE numbers.

I, actually, quite admire the Greeks. They are dealing with the situation better than I would have expected.

I wish I could just vanish. These two weeks, from the announcement of the referendum to the voting of the first austerity package, were a living hell for me and everyone else who wants our country to stay in the EU and doesn't want it to become Hoxha's Albania.
There were days when I was literally paralyzed with fear.  

I am surprised that the Golden Dawn hasn't picked up more support than they have. If this were happening in a country with self respect, like Germany or the US, they would be at least up in the 20s by this point, and would be taken seriously like the National Front in France and like Donald Trump in the US.

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Donald Trump is no Nazi. Fascist, maybe.

Lol @ the idea Donald Trump is taken seriously.

That's a difference of degree, not of kind. Mussolini was a "fascist," but was he really that different from Hitler?

Anyway, if Trump were in charge of Greece, one can imagine what he would have told those IMF prostitutes after getting that OXI.

Maybe the fact that they are unapologetic neo-Nazis and the fact that their leadership is under trial for being a criminal organization that resorted to blackmail and murder has something to do with their limited success.

Just because you don't like someone, or some party, doesn't mean that they are not a significant political factor if they are winning support. If they are winning support, there is probably a reason for that.

But anyway, we should be talking about Greece, not Trump.

People in Greece seem to be like abused puppies, who finally got up the courage to run away from home, but as soon as they get a block away start to get hungry, and come crawling back to their masters. Sad.

No doubt that is the explanation. However, one would suspect that the Greek people would get over that more quickly, given the severity of the economic crisis.

I guess it probably won't start happening until a few months or a year from now, when the current program is fully implemented, when Greece misses its primary surplus targets, when automatic further cuts go into effect, and when unemployment reaches about 40% or so.

ND is keeping its interim leader till spring, per Grauniad.

So Left Platform's plan was to forcibly seize the central bank and mint, arrest the governor in preparation to refloat the drachma, and ask Putin for cash.  (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2a0a1d94-3201-11e5-8873-775ba7c2ea3d.html#axzz3gGWlxWJH)

Behind a paywall. You could quote a bit more without violating copyright.

Goes onto explain that there was nowhere near enough cash in those vaults, and the ECB would've declared Greek Euros counterfeit.

That's old news, more than a week old.

Also, we are talking about two separate plans. The first and more outlandish about the seizing of the National Mint and the arrest of the governor of the Bank of Greece was the Plan B of Left Platform, Tsipras's biggest block of internal opposition in SYRIZA, in case there was no agreement and the ECB stopped providing liquidity to our banks.
It was widely ridiculed by everybody and just goes to show how out of touch all these Marxist fractions in SYRIZA are.

But the other scoop about our government asking Putin for a loan seems to be far more serious.
In that case the plan was that if the negotiations with the troika broke down then Tsipras would use that development as an excuse to declare a return to national currency.
Then he would ask Russia for a 10 billion dollars loan and use that cash as currency reserve to ensure a smooth transition from Euro to drachma. That plan was going forward perfectly until the night of the referendum when Moscow said to Athens that a bilateral loan was out of the question.
That's the reason, supposedly, why Tsipras, despite the resounding victory of No, rushed to make an extremely conciliatory and pro-European statement, because he understood that he was facing the prospect of bankruptcy and Grexit without safety net.
As of now the government has neither confirmed, nor denied that report and to be honest I tend to believe it.

So who are the heavyweights of the Left Platform? The speaker, Zoe Konstantopoulou? Our old friend Yanis?

Panayiotis Lafazanis, the former Minister of Energy, is the informal leader.
Varoufakis and Konstantopoulou are lone wolfs and act for their own interest.

Report on Varoufakis' "Plan B", which is just as insane as Left Platform's idea.  (http://www.ekathimerini.com/199945/article/ekathimerini/news/varoufakis-claims-had-approval-to-plan-parallel-banking-system)

Honestly, nobody really knows anymore if Varoufakis is telling the truth, in which case he and the rest of the government ought to to be tried for treason, or if he is just babbling nonsense like the attention whore he is.

Syriza congress likely in September. (http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/world/2015/07/28/embattled-syriza-party-to-hold-congress.html)

New Yorker Varoufakis profile. (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/08/03/the-greek-warrior)

Tsipras proposing a party referendum.  (http://www.franceinfo.fr/actu/europe/article/grece-alexis-tsipras-propose-un-referendum-interne-son-parti-711091)

Syriza conference in September. (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/626863281169412096)

This would have been a coup.

But not a coup d'état.

Wait till you find that their plan also included the opening of all safety deposit boxes in all the banks and the confiscating of any money found there.

Judge orders police cybercrime unit to investigate Plan B. (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/628599820853358593)

Cybercrime? Wait, what? ???

Athens hopes for a quick debt deal, Germans say be careful. (http://www.politico.eu/article/athens-aims-for-quick-debt-deal-bailout-program/)

Greece reaches an agreement in principle, but no political deal yet. Politico says snap election this autumn. (http://www.politico.eu/article/greece-clinches-deal-bailout-program/)

Left Platform looks set to formally split.  (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/631500994396966912) Or as one of their MPs put it, "the Oxi front will soon materialize politically." (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/631500994396966912)

That means that if Tsipras calls a snap election this fall then it's almost impossible for SYRIZA to win a majority of seats. The whole point was to do it before the rebels have time to organize a new party.

Lafazanis and 11 other MPs have called for the founding of a "united front that will justify people's desire for justice and democracy." (http://www.ekathimerini.com/200525/article/ekathimerini/news/lafazanis-announces-creation-of-anti-bailout-movement)

Sounds like SRYIZA will then become neo-PASOK.

Have we seen any hypothetical polling of how a Left Platform would destabilise politics?

Greece's economy has surprisingly grown quite strongly in Q2, with a +0.8% growth Q/Q and +1.4% Y/Y.

The Q1 figures were revised up from -0.2% to 0.0% ...

Tourism was a huge boost, because Greece has record tourism right now.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33908034

Compared with the first half of 2014, GDP is up by 1% this year so far.

Economists actually predicted a fall of 2% for this year ...

There is no polling in August because everyone is on vacation. But I wouldn't be surprised if a pro-drachma party based on Left Plaform captured an 8-9% of the vote.

Bailout passed but Tsipras slipped under the number required for a minority government, so he'll seek a confidence vote next Thursday. (http://www.politico.eu/article/greece-approves-deal-bailout-program-but-tsipras-faces-revolt-syriza/)

Eurogroup has approved the bailout. First tranche will be approved next Wednesday and handed off the following day.

Tsipras has delayed the confidence vote and a September snap election is unlikely. More likely October or early November. (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/633575014969790469)

Tsipras aides about Lafazanis: split inevitable.  (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/633911741567627264)

First debt repayment made. (http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/08/20/eurozone-greece-debt-idINKCN0QP11R20150820) One senior minister calls for a snap election, and there are rumours in Athens that Tsipras will call a snap election tonight for 3 or 4 weeks from now. (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/634284039415967744)

Snap election for next month or early October. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/20/us-eurozone-greece-tv-idUSKCN0QP19320150820)

Well, while nobody was looking we made history: we have now our first woman prime minister ever.

Yeah, mentioned it in the election thread.

ND has announced that the procedures for electing a new party president has officially begun, with the intention of concluding the process ASAP.

Alexis Tsipras was sworn in as Prime Minister yesterday evening.

The new cabinet will take its oath tomorrow morning, before Tsipras departs for the emergency summit on the refugee crisis in Brussels.

Likely moves:

25 to 27 ministers
broad participation of non-political personalities/experts

some of the larger ministries will break up in order to become more manageable:

Ministry of Growth will break up into three (with Giorgos Stathakis expected to be in charge of one of them).
Ministry of Agricultural Development will become autonomous.
Ministries of Migration Policy and Infrastructure will also be a separate portfolio.

Dimitris Vitsas is set to be appointed President of Parliament, after Yannis Dragasakis declined the offer.

Dragasakis will probably get a supervisor role in the government overlook finances.

Olga Gerovasili will continue to act as government spokesperson.

Euclid Tsakalotos is new Minister of Finance

Giorgos Houliarakis will lead af Ministry dedicated to the implementation of the Greek reform program.

Nikos Voutsis and Giorgos Katrougalos stays as Ministers of Interior and Labour.

Caretaker Ministers of Migration Yannis Mouzalas stays on in the tough job.

Caretaker Minister of Shipping Christos Zois stays

Nikos Christodoulakiswill be booted as Economy Minister, but unsure who gets it,

ANEL boss Panos Kammenos will remain in charge of the Ministry of National Defense and Elena Kountoura will continue as Minister of Tourism.

Lets see if it holds true, to if Tsipras has some surprises.

EU prepared to essentially pay Greece to cede border control to the union.

http://www.tovima.gr/en/article/?aid=739590 (http://www.tovima.gr/en/article/?aid=739590)

Financial aid in return for accepting supervision of the country’s borders  from Frontex. Wonder if ANEL can accept that.. would fit many of their old conspiracy theories.

Tsipras just made minister Dimitris Kammenos. He is a cousin of Panos and a well-known homophobe and anti-semite who thinks that 9/11 was a jewish conspiracy.
How lovely! 

The new cabinet. 17 reappointments and few surprises.

http://www.tovima.gr/en/article/?aid=739875 (http://www.tovima.gr/en/article/?aid=739875)

Vet pry male dominated, these Syriza cabinets aren't they?

If I was responsible of the opinions of my cousins and extented family...

I have racists, bigots, communists and theocrats (but mostly normal, centrist or center-left people). Am I a terrible person because of that?

Well, he is responsible for putting his horrible cousin in the cabinet. But Panos K. is pretty terrible himself, so no surprise.

Hey px75 who did you vote for this time? PASOK-DIMAR, if I had to guess?

I don't think anybody is using Tsipras' choice to rail against P. Kammenos. This is about a hero of the European left filling his cabinet with a rabid anti-Semite.

Dimitris Kammenos now holds the record for shortest service in the Greek Cabinet- a mere twelve hours!

Apparently he voluntarily resigned shortly after Tsipras called Panos Kammenos to "suggest" that ANEL consider replacing him

Yeah, but not because I thought they were any good. I voted for them to prevent GD from coming third.

The funny thing (if you can call it that) is that his anti-semitic and homophobic comments aren't what led to his demise, Panos K. himself has also made a bunch of them.
The straw that broke the camel's back were some past comments where he called Tsipras an "idiot", a "criminal" and suggested that he was a Free Mason.

New Democracy have spectacularly botched their leadership election.