Talk Elections

I'll go ahead and start the new thread. As we're already getting lots of opinion polls for the relevant elections.

Schedule:

20 January: Niedersachsen Landtagswahl (Lower Saxony STATE)
26 May: Schleswig-Holstein Kommunalwahlen (S-H LOCAL)
15 September: Bayern Landtagswahl (Bavaria STATE)
22 September: Bundestagswahl (German Federal Parliamentary Election)
before or on 15 December: Hessen Landtagswahl (Hesse STATE)

15.12.2012, GMS, Bavarian State Election:

CSU 49
SPD 22
Grüne 10
FW 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4


CSU absolute majority (49-40)

16.12.2012, Infratest dimap, NRW State Election:

SPD 40
CDU 32
Grüne 12
FDP 5

Piraten 4
Linke 4


SPD/Green easily retains majority (52-37).

Two federal polls as well!

16.12.2012, Emnid, Bundestag:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 4

Red-Green with no majority (42-47).

---

17.12.2012, GMS, Bundestag:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 29
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3
FW 1

Red-Green with no majority (43-47).

Since it wasn't answered in  the old thread:

Sorry. Meant to answer that.

I tend to doubt it. When you have the Left down to 7% or so, like now, you've really only got pretty die-hard supporters left. An overwhelming difference between the East and the West as well. The protest votes from Western states have largely gone back to other left-of-center parties since 2009.

Red-Green's only real chance would be for: a.) the FDP gets thrown out + b.) Steinbrück can lure some CDU voters into supporting him.

IMO:

19.12.2012, Forsa, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 38
SPD 27
Grüne 14
Linke 8
FDP 5

Piraten 3


First time in a while that the FDP has been at 5%.

Red-Green with no majority. (41-51); Black-Yellow with no majority. (43-49)

Particularly amusing that the governing coalition is actually 2% ahead of red-green.

LOL, so the right coalition now actually gets more votes?

Wish the Pirates would eff off.

They have pretty much. I wouldn't assume that the remaining 3% would automatically go to SPD or Greens.

Well that's part of their problem: they obfuscate the national picture with their rag-tag support. I am pleased their bubble has burst, though.

I know they won't join a red-green coalition, but surely Linke could be convinced to give red-green confidence and supply, right?

Definitely. But I doubt the SPD will allow that situation.

I don't see what the issue is. In the Netherlands and in all the Scandinavian countries, social democratic parties routinely form coalitions or have vague support agreements with far left/Communist parties. Why is this so taboo in Germany?

Surely ever heard of the GDR?

20.12.2012, Allensbach/FAZ, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 37,5
SPD 30
GRüne 14
Linke 6,5

FDP 4,5
Piraten 3,5

SPD/Green almost at majority (44-44).

21.12.2012, Infratest/dimap, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 30
Grüne 13
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green with no majority (43-47).

New Niedersachsen poll by INFO GmbH for Focus:

38.5 CDU
33.0 SPD
12.5 Greens
  4.5 Pirates
  4.0 Left
  3.5 FDP
  4.0 Others

Majority for SPD-Greens (45.5-38.5)

23.12.2012, Emnid, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 13
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4
others 3

SPD-Green with no majority (41-48).

Epic fail is epic.

All roads lead to Merkel. Wasn't a Black-Green coalition also being mooted a while back too? Though obviously most likely is still a Grand with the remaining FDP tacked on.

Interesting -- I hadn't really followed the 2012 thread, but considering the federal election will be taking place (and a desire to rectify my general lack of knowledge about German politics), I'll be watching this one much more closely.

Not much to add besides that at the moment, however...

It's certainly not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on black-green.

It's either CDU+FDP, CDU+SPD, or SPD+Greens.... with CDU+SPD being the most likely outcome at this point.

Forget about CDU+Greens, SPD+Greens+FDP, SPD+Greens+Left or any other wishful thinking-type coalition.

Probabilities at this point, if you ask me:

CDU/SPD 65%
SPD/Green 20%
SPD/CDU 10%
other (the likliest being CDU/Green) 5%

^^

While being less likely than CDU/SPD and probably also SPD/Greens, I happen to think that the chances of a CDU/FDP revival (/survival) are generally underestimated. If you take the latest Emnid/Infratest polls and add a percent to the FDP's numbers, black-yellow isn't that far from winning another majority again.

I dunno, I have trouble seeing the Union actually stay at 40%. I think Steinbrück can only go up with swing voters (not that there are many in Germany) at the moment.

I don't doubt the FDP will make it back into the Bundestag. Actually, I think it's very likely...but the left-wing would really have to implode for the current government to be re-elected...

26.12.2012, Forsa, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 41
SPD 27
Grüne 13
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD-Green with no majority (40-49).

If the FDP were 1% higher, black-yellow would almost be re-elected (46-48).

New Berlin Forsa poll:

state

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federal

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Wow.  FDP now is part of "other" in Berlin.

And Left and Greens are up and Pirates are almost out. I'm liking this election (as opposed to the federal one which sucks).

Usual seasonal bumps. College students and young professionals are visiting their parents over Christmas (and high-school teachers are off to Crete or La Gomera for a bit of sun), so SPD and Greens drop by a point, while the CDU gains a bit. Wait until late January, when the well-off pensioneeers cruise the Caribbeans or take their annual spa treatment in the Czech Republic and Hungary, and you will have the CDU at 38%, while the SPD is back at 30%, and Greens at 15%.

The only interesting thing appears to be a slight move from the SPD towards the Left - not surprising, as Steinbrück is anything but a left-leaning SPD candidate.

There are just 2 words that explain why the Berlin-SPD has fallen behind the CDU:

"Fucked-up Airport"

Wait, why are they having another election in Berlin so early?

They aren't.

So why poll a local election which is 3 or 4 years away?

Because the main newspapers in the states want some polls once in a while.

Usually, if the election is just over you already see a new poll within a few months already.

In Germany and here as well ...

I see. :P

Hahaha, poor Steinbrück:

Steinbrück: Merkel gets 'women's bonus' in polls

Peer Steinbrück, SPD challenger to Angela Merkel in next year's election, has committed a second PR blunder in two days. After complaining that chancellors get paid too little, he said Merkel's popularity was down to a "women's bonus."

"Angela Merkel is loved because she gets a women's bonus," Steinbrück told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper.

The statement was part of a slightly clumsy attempt to praise his election opponent, during which he said that female voters in particular admired Merkel's career trajectory.

He said the chancellor had "asserted herself in a men's world, seems very unpretentious and presents herself very modestly," which he said were all qualities that those who traditionally voted for his Social Democratic Party valued too.

"But that doesn't mean that I'm seen as the 'God help us' candidate," he added.

Steinbrück also said that he did not intend to adapt his own presentation style in the upcoming election campaign to counteract Merkel's "advantages."

"That would just be exposed as play-acting anyway," he said, before arguing that elections weren't won by popularity in any case. Steinbrück pointed out that, as state premier of North-Rhine Westphalia in 2005, he had been ahead of his election opponent Jürgen Rüttgers in the popularity polls, but had still lost the election.

The SPD candidate's faux pas comes close on the heels of Saturday's complaint that the German chancellor is paid too little for the amount of responsibility he or she has. "Almost every bank director in North-Rhine Westphalia earns more than the chancellor," he told the FAS.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20121230-47045.html

This guy is even more of a self-parody than Romney, albeit from the other side of the aisle. An SPD candidate supposed to represent blue-collar voters saying that he'd be underpaid... in comparison to bankers. Then saying his female opponent's female supporters vote their gender. I don't know if Germany has a political satire show like Private Eye or SNL but if they do this would be a marvelous skit. Cause you couldn't make this sh**t up. :P

At least he's basically resigned to losing, so not totally detached from political reality.

It's called the SPD.

What the heck happened to the SPD to make them so bad?

That's what happens when you stand for nothing. The SPD as a party has the same problem Romney had as a person. They have no convictions, so nothing to say, so they have to figure out on their own what to say... except they are idiots, thus what they come up with ends up being a gaffe.

Eh, plenty of politicians suffer from chronic foot-in-mouth syndrome; probably best to separate Steinbrück's rather severe case of that condition (which has been known about for many years anyway) from the SPD's structural difficulties.

Well, I knew from the start that with Steinbrück, things would not be easy. He single-handedly killed a reasonably working red-green coalition in North-Rhine Westphalia, just to find himself on the opposition bench after a historically unprecedented CDU-FDP win of the subsequent state election. But these two gaffes in a row go beyond my wildest expectations ..

One more reason to look for a black-green coalition in 2013 as the only feasible way to get some issues moved foreward in Germany. The last thing I want to see at the moment is Peer Steinbrück as Foreign Minister of a Grand Coalition - we Germans have already enough problems in the international (Euro) arena...

My prediction for the coming opinion polls:
CDU 40%  (-1, as the Christmas holiday bump recedes)
SPD 27% (no change, as post-Christmas upswing is eaten away by Steinbrück's gaffes)
Greens 15% (+2, half of it post-Christmas upswing, other half thanks to Steinbrück)
Linke 9% (+1%, thanks to Steinbrück)
FDP 4% (unchanged), maybe getting 5% due to Steinbrück)
Pirates 3% (unchanged), others 2%

As has been said, the newspapers want new polls to publish once in a while. In addition, state elections and satisfaction with state governments really are a big deal in a federal country, unlike in an unitary state. State elections in Germany or Austria are therefore not local elections - elections in cities normally would be local, but Berlin is a city state. And of course in any parliamentary system you're going to see a lot of party support polls at any point of the electoral cycle, which is different from a presidential system like France where the person who holds the presidency is most important and the exact level of support for political parties comparatively less crucial.

In Berlin, it's the local newspaper Berliner Zeitung which wants a poll every month and so Forsa conducts that for them. There is also a poll conducted by Infratest dimap every few months for another paper Berliner Morgenpost and for the local public broadcaster RBB.

Incidentally, the Forsa/BZ polls have not had FDP as separate entry since December 2011. For them, FDP in Berlin state elections is firmly among "Others". However the competing polls from Infratest dimap have shown the state FDP consistently at 2% during the year 2012 too. Since the "Others" in Forsa polls are at 8-9% while their share in Infratest polls is more like 5 or 6%, it seems clear that Forsa also polls FDP at around 2%, but when publishing the results Berliner Zeitung chooses to not show that and instead shoves the party in the Others column. Not that two percent would be anything to be particularly happy about, either...

Never thought I'd say this, but I'm praying for another black-yellow majority, and for the SPD to get shattered.  It's exactly what it deserves.

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:

Federal

28% [+3] SPD
27% [+3] CDU
26%  [-3] Left
  7% [+1] Greens
  4%  [-5] FDP
  3%  [nc] Pirates
  5% [+1] Others

Merkel leads Steinbrück by 51-22 in her "home state".

State

36% [+3] SPD
24%  [-3] Left
22% [+2] CDU
  7% [+1] Greens
  3%  [-4] FDP
  2% [+2] Pirates
  6%  [-1] Others

http://www.maerkischeallgemeine.de/cms/beitrag/12447543/62249/MAZ-Umfrage-Kanzlerin-liegt-vor-Gegenkandidat-Steinbrueck-SPD.html

Merkel's 'home state'? You might say so, considering she grew up in Brandenburg - and was born in Hamburg, studied in Saxony (Leipzig), worked in Berlin pre-1990, then in Bonn (NRW)  ..

But her constituency is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (since 1990), where her second husband works and resides. That state's interests is also what she is pushing forward - G8 summit in Heiligendamm, promoting wind energy (NORDEX is Mecklenburg's largest company by turnover), supporting shipbuilding deals with Russia, etc. So, the common German perception would be Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, not Brandenburg being Merkel's home state.

I know. That's why I wrote "home state", not home state.

What kind of coalition does that make ? Incumbent Red-red or previous Red-black ?

New unemployment report: 6.7% unemployment in December 2012, +0.2% against November, +0.1% against December 2011.
East-West split remains, but softens a bit: West 5.8% (+0.2% against 2011),. East 10.3% (-0.3%). Employment gains highest in Berlin (-0.4% against 2011), Saxony (-0.4%) and Brandenburg (-0.3%). Biggest umemployment increase in Saarland (+0.5%) and NRW (+0.3%). Lower Saxony unchanged at 6.4%, Bavaria 3.6% (+0.2%).

PDF map by county and detailed data can be found here:
http://www.arbeitsagentur.de/zentraler-Content/A01-Allgemein-Info/A011-Presse/Publikation/pdf/Landkarten-Eckwerte-2012-12.pdf (http://www.arbeitsagentur.de/zentraler-Content/A01-Allgemein-Info/A011-Presse/Publikation/pdf/Landkarten-Eckwerte-2012-12.pdf)

Newly published survey on renewable energy (TNS infratest. 4.060 respondents):

"Increasing the use of renewable energy is important (24%) / very or extremely important (69%)"
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Opinion on the recent increase of the renewable energy levy (payable by all non-industrial consumers) by the federal government to 5 €ct / kwH is more ambiguous: 51% deem the increase to be too high, 44% acceptable, 2% still too low (2% no opinion). Acdptance varies strongly by state, and is especially low in Eastern Germany.
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I don't know how the coalition climate is, if it is good then probably Red-Red, if it is worn out then probably Red-Black like before.

New Niedersachsen poll by Infratest dimap for NDR (they vote on Jan. 20):

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Governor David McAllister (CDU) leads big in the direct vote for Governor:

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Governor David McAllister (CDU) gets a 64-25 job approval rating:

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Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) gets a 68-31 job approval rating:

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SPD-frontrunner Peer Steinbrück gets a 52-38 job approval rating:

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FDP-leader Philipp Rösler gets a 20-72 job approval rating:

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Green-leader Jürgen Trittin gets a 52-38 job approval rating:

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A CDU-FDP coalition would be ... 65-32 bad for Niedersachsen:

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A SPD-Green coalition would be ... 52-44 good for Niedersachsen:

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A Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD) would be ... 52-44 bad for Niedersachsen:

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A CDU-Green coalition would be ... 73-23 bad for Niedersachsen:

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http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/umfragen/niedersachsentrend149.html

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

Because Niedersachsen is in the west.

When the party is polling 7% nationally, that's to be expected.

Got it. One other thing. Why does a Black-Green coalition poll so low? It's even worse than the CDU-FDP one.

Because it makes no sense whatsoever?

Because nobody in the core votership of either party feels anything but contempt for the notion except as a last resort. (Journalists and younger career politicians tick very differently, of course.)

Meanwhile, CDU/CSU has reached a new record-high (best poll result since November 2007) in the new Infratest dimap poll:

41% CDU/CSU (West: 42%, East: 39%)
29% SPD (West: 30%, East: 24%)
12% Greens (West: 13%, East: 8%)
  6% Left (West: 3%, East: 17%)
  4% FDP (West: 4%, East: 4%)
  4% Pirates (West: 4%, East: 4%)
  4% Others (West: 4%, East: 4%)

47% SPD-Greens-Left vs. 45% CDU-CSU-FDP

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Linke, FDP and Pirates all ended up right under 5%? :P

A CDU absolute majority is possible with that scenario... :)

I'd actually prefer that, by far, to another black-yellow coalition.

Well yes, of course.

That is a pretty simplified answer.  The more complete one:

1) Niedersachsen has made the experience that a state-level Red-Green coalition can actually work (Schröder-Trittin from 1990-1998), unlike many other states, in which such coaltitions typically got killed by the SPD. In addition, most major cities (Hannover, Osnabrück, Göttingen, Lüneburg) have a long tradition of reasonably well-working red-green alliances, while the 2006 black-green "test balloon" in Oldenburg failed miserably.
Thus there should be quite a Red-Green preference in the green-leaning part of the electorate (including potential voters for Pirates and the Left) - and with SPD leaners anyway.

2.) Niedersachsen's party alignments are still strongly driven by the catholic-protestant divide. Compare, e.g.. party votes in the 2009 federal election for the neighbouring constituencies of Cloppenburg-Vechta (CDU 54.5, SPD 16.5, Green 5.3), and Diepholz-Nienburg (CDU 33.8, SPD 27.7, Green 10.0). Socio-economically, these two constituencies are much alike (rural/ small town, farm-based, strong agro-processing and agricultural machine-building), but the former is majority catholic, while the latter is protestant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldenburg_M%C3%BCnsterland (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldenburg_M%C3%BCnsterland). Interactive map for 2009 results per constituency can be found here: http://www.nls.niedersachsen.de/BW2009/start.htm (http://www.nls.niedersachsen.de/BW2009/start.htm)

Unlike in other states. e.g. Baden-Würtenberg, the Lower Saxony Greens have never made inroads into the catholic part of the local electorate. To the opposite, their top candidate, Stefan Wenzel, is member of the Synode of the German Evangelical (Lutheran) Church. As such, reluctance of the rural / catholic part of CDU voters to go along with the Greens is quite understandable.

3.) Another key constituency of the state's CDU is "Heimatvertriebene" (post WW II displaced persons from former German territories in the East). In 1950, they accounted for 27% of the State's total population, concentrated in the central eastern part of the State (roughly everything east of the middle Weser - Hameln to Verden), and, to a lesser extent, along the Elbe and upper Weser towards Wilhelmshaven and Oldenburg. Their integration into the CDU did not occur immediately, but via several other parties - BHE, DP, and, most importantly, the NPD in the late 1960s / early 1970s.  Thus, you still find a (demographically decreasing) number of CDU politicians in Eastern Lower Saxony with late 1960s/ early 1970s NPD past, the most prominent of which is the current major of Brunswick (CDU, ruling with FDP support).  This, in turn, is not pushing enthusiasm for any kind of cooperation with the CDU in the left-leaning part of the electorate in central-eastern Lower Saxony.

The above also explains why a 64% job approval will most likely not be enough for David McAllister to keep his job. There are just too many people in Lower Saxony who will never vote for a guy from the "black with brown dots"-party, irrespectively of his personality and performance. And the FDP, which might otherwise help him to the post, has burnt its image nationally too badly to obtain a meaningful number of swing voters.

Been appreciating your insight, Franknburger.

*is motivated by above post to check newbie's profile to see where in Germany he's from*

Oh yeah, and a belated "welcome to the forum!" is in order, too!

Thanks for the welcome! Newbie was born and grew up in Hannover (surprise, surprise !). studied and lived for many years in Hamburg (when not travelling the world working as a consultant), and is since more than ten years residing in Schleswig-Holstein's "bacon belt" northeast of Hamburg.

On a further disclosure: In my youth, I was among the founding members of the GAL, after getting fed up with the way my school-mate Olaf Scholz was running the local JuSo group. However, the GAL somehow lost me when they computerised their membership files, and I never bothered to remind them about me ... 

Good to see.

So you must be at least 50 years old ?

50-60 I guess ?

A great analysis, Franknburger. Two things aside and in addition to it:


First: It has never been thoroughly proven that the German refugees voted overwhelmingly for right-wing parties. There are also different instances; in rural southern Germany, for example, it were refugees who built up the local Social Democratic Party chapters after the war. So, in my opinion, the story went the other way round: Leftist, liberal and centrist refugees tended to abandon their eastern heritage rather quickly. Right-wing refugees, on the other hand, would emphasize their East European roots and their restorative claims. Both led to the popular impression that all refugees were and are right-wing.

Second: By now, the political and electoral influence of the organized refugees ("Heimatvertriebene") is marginal at best. They never really managed to pass their identity and ideas to the following generations, so when the last "real" refugees die, it will be basically over for them. As you said, however, their extremist right-wing image is still very much alive. Especially for the Greens and The Left, the "Heimatvertriebene" are a popular boogeyman, and every CDU politician mentioning the matter will immediately be accused of nazi connections. This doesn't correspond to the real political impact of the last refugees, though.

Turning 50 this year.

Widespread discussion within the FDP, that the results of the Lower Saxony election are going to trigger the resignation of federal chairman Philipp Rösler.

Who's next in line? Rainer Brüderle, I suppose. Probably also an improvement over Rösler and Westerwelle, since Brüderle somewhat maintains an aura of authenticity and a certain folksy charm. His speeches are also almost incomprehensible, which can't really hurt when you're a FDP politician these days (Brüderle has a tendency to mumble a lot, combined with a Rhenish accent). :P

Being a notorious wino doesn't help either. :)

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

Could you explain why? I was under the impression the Merkel government (certainly Merkel herself) is quite popular. Of course I don't know much about German politics.

Merkel is personally popular, but that's it. The government is pretty strongly disliked.

The FDP has made a fool of themselves for the last 4 years and is perceived to be a corrupt and incompetent group entirely driven by special interests. (See hotel tax affair)

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

I see.


Neither Wikipedia nor Google have helped -- could you provide a link?


Maybe I'm just American, but I feel like more than 4% of the population would support that agenda...

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html (http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html)

This was kind of the start of their crash.

What makes the FDP unpopular is not so much their tax cut agenda but the fact that they were not able to push it trough (not even the slightest bit of it), despite being part of the government for almost four years now.

Thanks for the link -- that's quite dissuasive for possible FDP voters who aren't very wealthy...


Rather like the Lib-Dems? I see how it is.

I aggree that there is no statistical proof how refugees tended to vote - but it is nevertheless clear which party collected most of their functionnaires, which was the CDU / CSU.

I also don't think that one can compare Southern Germany with Lower Saxony in this respect:
For once, the integration challenges (and resulting tensions) were much larger. In Eastern Lower Saxony, as in Schleswig-Holstein, you had roughly one refugee coming on every local-born - a ratio that, with the possible exception of the Bavarian-Czech border districts, was far higher than anywhere else in West Germany.
Secondly, by around 1970 the Lower Saxon SPD had become the party of the protestant (urban & rural)  establishment, as previous such parties, including DNVP and NSDAP, had been throughly discredited by / after WW II. [The heavily industrialised part of Hannover where I grew up had a sizeable portion of pre WW I polish immigrants - roughly half of my primary school mates had Polish last names. It was out of any question that any 'German' interested in politics would join the SPD, while any 'Pole' would join the CDU. And the 'Germans', of course, would rather be suburban middle-class, while the 'Poles' would be blue-collar.] As such, refugees, to the extent they were not already (as catholic Silesians) attracted by the CDU, needed an anti-establishment platform, which was first offered by the BHE, then the NPD, and ultimately, especially after Willy Brandt's formal cession of eastern territories to Poland and the USSR in 1970, by the CDU.

It is perfectly imaginable and understandable for me that things went the other way round in rural Southern Germany, and refugees there flocked to the SPD in opposition to the prevailing CDU/CSU establishment (actually a pretty fascinating detail of the southern German political landscape that I had not been aware of before).


True! A lot of my friends, and my wife, are 'second-generation' "Heimatvertriebene" (at least from one parental side), without self-identifying so. As to the "real" refugees, those who have survived displacement and hunger tend to be quite durable (at least I hope so for my mother-in-law), so they may still be around for a while as loyal CDU voters (in Northern Germany).

However, I think it is equally important to recognise and understand the political socialisation of left-leaning people of my generation (babyboomers), which often was started by older relatives making statements like "The Nazis were not worse than the Russians", followed by swearing on the treacherous SPD giving up German lands in the East. So, the refugee functionnaire might be the bogeyman, but the real source of anger was the own grandfather or uncle  - and that is what is making the "Heimatvertriebenen" issue so emotional.
The real tragic is that the refugees rarely shared their experience. My mother-in-law, e.g., only recently told me and my wife how she, at the age of seven, saw her mother being raped by a Russian soldier. Its understandable - this is not the kind of stories you really want to tell at the coffee table. But since most of such stories have probably never been told, the "real" refugees came, and are still coming, across as backward-oriented, revanchist, nazi-leaning phrase-mongers.

And they pretty much sealed the deal when, after running their election campaign on the "More net from gross" (income) slogan, they agreed to raising public system health insurance premiums by 0,5%, without coming up with any meaningful cost reduction proposal.  Note that the Ministry of Health is run by the FDP.
SPD and Greens have for long been demanding to liberalise the pharmacy sector, allowing the entrance of internet pharmacies and larger pharmacy chains, in order to cut down on the exessively high costs of pharmaceutical distribution, but self-employed pharmacists are known to be one of the most loyal FDP voters groups ..

Oh yes, and then there were the Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein FDP divisions running  "shut down dangerous nuclear reactors" campaigns during the respective state elections, in reaction to several major failures of the Krümmel reactor which is located some 30 km south-east of Hamburg. And what was the first action of the FDP-run Ministry of Economy? Revoking the old red-green compromise on gradually phasing out nuclear energy. After Merkel's post-Fukushima turnaround, the Krümmel reactor was the first to be immediately shut down, but that is being credited to Merkel, not to the FDP.

Need more? Just ask, there is plenty ..

Just because you have a point in you platform a lot of people could agree with doesn´t translate into voters. A lot of Americans would agree with part of the Libertarian, Green and Constitutional Parties platforms, but they won´t vote for them. If a party come across as a waste of your vote, dishonest, imcompetent or corrupt a lot of their core voting segment wiill not vote for them.

You need to post more :)

If the FDP want to increase their support, they need to re-define what they stand for. It seems like right now they're trying to be vague as possible and let voters project what they want. That might work with the Pirates or Beppe Grillo, who are seeking a young, angry, protest voters but not with a bunch of pro-business technocrats.

This parallel, yet opposite, development is indeed fascinating. One has to see, of course, that there were a lot of conservative/right-leaning refugees in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, as well. The close connections between the "Sudetendeutsche Landsmannschaft" and the CSU, for example, are notorious. It holds true, however, that many refugees felt attracted by a political party that was (and still is) perceived as an anti-establishment, "outsider" force in the South. At least up until the 1970s, you can savely assume that - while not every refugee was a Social Democrat - almost every Social Democrat in rural Southern Germany was a refugee. By the way: There is no "indigenous" Social Democracy in said region to this day. As far as my personal observations reach (Upper Bavaria south of Munich), around 80% of SPD members there are no native-born Bavarians, but "Zugereiste", especially from Franconia and Northern Germany. To some degree, they have replaced the refugees as social outsiders.



What you say here is very true and very important. Actually, I can understand both sides (at least I hope so): The refugees' bitterness against Russians, Poles and Czechs, but also the following generation's outrage against the views of their refugee mothers and fathers. While this is completely comprehensible, I find it still annoying that it doesn't seem to be possible to discuss these matters in a neutral way, without emotional involvement and outbursts of sentiment. I mean, the events happened 70 years ago. This shows, however, that the memories seem to be too fresh still, and that the expulsion affected the German society in a more profound way than we like to admit.  

Part of the problem is that FDP has become increasingly redundant.

They were big on civil liberties once, but the issue has been largely taken over by the Greens (and the Pirates... and the Left to some extent). And business interests can be represented by the CDU just as easily, only without the blatant whoring.

What's left is the premise that taxes are inherently evil.

IMO they started to lose it when they voted against legalizing civil unions for gays and lesbians in 2001. Or maybe when they approved of wire-tapping back in 1995. That's when they became just a more secular version of the CDU.

It's true that in most places in rural Upper Bavaria the SPD is a somehow "foreign" (and non-catholic) party, at least most of its membership. On the other hand there have always been some "indigenous" SPD voters, maybe in the past more than today.

The early-industrialized communes (Kolbermoor, Hausham, Penzberg, Peissenberg,...) have/had some kind of Social Democratic tradition, reaching back about 100 years, i.e. before the post-WW2 expulsions. Although I have to admit that these have also been places with a somehow diverse population (almost "social outsiders").

Other interesting comunes in our region are Geretsried, Traunsreut, Waldkraiburg and Neugablonz, new towns founded after WW2, with a very high refugee population. I would have to look up their historical voting behavior, but they were certainly among the strongholds of parties like the WAV, GB/BHE and in the 60s/70s the NPD. Today they have low turnout (similar to the Hausham type of communes) and relatively high CSU results (at least compared to other relatively big communes in the same area). The reasons for this could be the immigration of (mostly conservative) Eastern European ethnic Germans who were able cheap housing in the blocks.

My mother's family is partially refugee (though not moving to a "refugee town") and the parental and grandparental generations were very conversative or revisionist. What Franknburger told about his mother-in-law's family resembles very much what my mother told me she had heard: It has always been a very important theme at home, though very rarely talked about (openly). My great-grandmother hated the Russians and Poles very much until the end of her long life because the expulsion and the rape of her then 14-year-old daughter (though this was nothing she talked about openly, of course). She was a fervent CSU supporter because it represented the Western style economic miracle and social conservatism. She also admired Helmut Kohl, at least until 1990 when he conceeded the Eastern territories to Poland.

What is interesting though is that often the baby-boomer generation children of right-leaning refugees became more left-wing and the children of conservative "indigenous" people not so often...

throughout the Kohl years it was purely lip service. (Or I guess right in 82-4 they prevented a rollback of 70s reforms... but after that...) And up to the early 70s, the civil liberties-interested people were but a welldefined wing, and usually a minority one, within a party they shared with people who were, for want of a better word, somewhat reformed old nazis. Those people, insofar as they didn't just die or retire, defected to the CDU over the Ostverträge, of course.

Noooooo.

That (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laUJzGMUEI4) was the start of their crash.

Emnid, 06.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 27%
Grüne 14%
Linke 8%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
sonstige 3%

Red-Green with no majority (41-49).

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%, following the leadership discussion during their recent party conference!
SPD decrease continues. [Today's "Joke of the day" in my local newspaper: "What is the measurement unit for the average interval between two gaffes?" "One Steinbrück"]

Chancellorship preference:
Merkel           58% (+7)
Steinbrück     22% (-4)

:D And the decimal is one Romney. :P

I didn't through than FDP could go lower than where they were.

"Fast Drei Prozent" quip comes out of retirement.

New Bavaria state election poll (09.01.2013): Absolute CSU majority possible

()

FW=Freie Wähler (Association of local / community level independent lists). 10.2% in last Bavarian election, but have remained marginal in other state elections (1-3 %). Have vowed for a coaltion with SPD and Greens to oust the current Bavarian CSU/FDP government.

Sonstige: Piraten 3%, Linke 2%

It's really time for the CSU to experience the opposition bench.

Won't happen, but Ude would be a good Ministerpräsident.

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

Basically center-rights that don't like the CSU. They've declared their support for a SPD-Green-FW coalition.

CSU has not won yet. Comparing the current Bavaria poll with previous ones, it seems that the anti-CSU block remains stable, i.e. disappointed SPD voters defect to the Greens or the FW, but not to the CSU.

Now, let's assume that until the election in Autumn 2013

(i) Unemployment in Bavaria will continue to rise (decreasing car exports),
(ii) Discontent about the increase of the renewable energy levy will grow (it will take some time until people really feel it in their pocket), and the increase is blamed on black-yellow,
(iii) Ramsauer's performance as Federal Ministter of Transport gets publicly questioned (Berlin-Brandenburg Airport, major cost increases for Stuttgart 21 and for the Fehmarnbelt Connection), and he does not stop to call for the introduction of motorway tolls for passenger cars;

this might peel another 3-4% from the CSU's current standing.

Assuming further that

(iv) Ude manages to detach himself from Steinbrück (and some other SPD highlights - Andrea Nahles comes to mind ..), and
(v) the opposition parties are able to convince voters that a change in power is achievable,

some FDP-leaners (who were never the CSU's best friends) and Pirate-leaners might decide that kicking the CSU out will be more fun than making a fundamental, but ultimately ineffective political statement - and suddenly the CSU majority is gone.

Yes, I know, it's a number of "if"s ..

Freie Wähler are a bit like the over-40 variant of the Pirates. Their common agenda is increasing local-level autonomy, better funding of communities, and strengthening direct democracy. Beyond that, it gets pretty diffuse. On the local level, they often form in opposition to specific infrastructure or investment projects, typically driven by a mix of environmental and financial / economical concerns (e.g. environmentalists and inner-city retailers uniting against a planned greenfield shopping mall).

The Bavarian state level Freie Wähler owed their 2009 success to a good extent to CSU party-rebel Gabriele Pauli, who had criticised CSU party establishment and politics from a (moderate) feminist perspective.

() http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriele_Pauli (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriele_Pauli)

The Freie Wähler party leader has frequently come out as strong euro-sceptic, while the Bavarian secretary general is a political scientist with research focus on European integration. One of the most prominent supporters outside Bavaria is Hans-Olaf Henkel, former CEO of IBM Europe and ex-President of BDI (German Association of Manufacturing Industries).

Rightish. Basically the party for former CSU voters who have become disgruntled with the CSU... which is for all intents and purposes also their main political and election strategy.

At the same time, they also like to emphasize their independence within the party system, especially in regards to CDU/CSU and FDP. Back in 2010 they supported SPD/Green candidate Joachim Gauck for president and not CDU candidate Christian Wulff. Which wasn't that surprising, considering that Gauck is just their kind of "independent conservative". So they're also a bit of a anti-mainstream protest party.

:( to the FDP numbers, but I just want to point out that using Franzl notation, this poll is a 42-49 Black with no majority.

How do you figure? CDU is down 42-49.

I'm really doing poorly today...somehow I thought Grüne were at 5 instead of 15... ::)

Checked a bit on the demographic profile of Freie Wähler voters in Bavaria in 2009 (infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen exit polls):

• less educated (university graduates underrepresented)
• middle-aged men (35-60 years)
• young to middle-aged women (18-24 years old women overrepresented!)
• no overall gender gap
• predominantly rural
• slightly stronger among catholics than among protestants (possibly due to rural focus)
• around 50% of votes gained against 2003 came from CSU

Thanks for the states' guides: finding them very interesting. :)

Won't happen. Here is why: German voters see the effects of the economic crisis in other European states (60% youth unemployment etc.) and are thankful that Merkel, CDU and CSU "saved" them from such misery. This notion is, of course, not true: The black-yellow coalition has done exactly zilch to this effect. If anything, the former red-green coalition's social and economic reforms are responsible for Germany's relative economic stability. The voters' perception, however, is different.

As long as this doesn't change - i.e, as long as the crisis in Europe persists, which will be for a very long time - the Conservative reign over Germany will continue. That's even more true for Bavaria, traditionally more conservative than Germany in general.

Yes and no ..

Clearly, German voters are no friends to 'chasing away the captain when the ship is in heavy sea' - hence the high job approval for Merkel.  I therefore also have no doubt that she will remain Chancellor after the 2013 federal election, but she will have to rule with another partner (SPD or Greens), that will shift government policies further to the left. And, in fact, the current government has already been much more centrist than I had expected. If anybody had told me three years ago that a black-yellow government would abolish the army draft, speed-up the closing-down of nuclear plants, maintain and slightly expand minimum wages, and maybe even (that's my bet for their final 'June surprise') introduce some kind of women quota for management positions, I would have called her/him a phantast.

But Bavaria is a completely different story. The state government is not a relevant actor on the European stage (instead, it is rather a constant source of disturbing background noise). And, the CSU has been in power for so long that even traditionally conservative voters feel that a change could be healthy. Not saying that the change will happen, but it might ..

B.t.w.: Germany's current economic strength is of course to some extent attributable to the innovation pull, and the reduction of labour costs that were triggered by the red-green ecological tax reform. Mostly, however, Germany is now receiving the benefits of its geographic proximity to Central and Eastern Europe (and Scandinavia), while Southern Europe, on top of home-made problems, has to cope with the post-Arab spring economic crisis on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea. 

New Infratest dimap federal poll shows the CDU/CSU-SPD gap widening:

41% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  3% Pirates
  4% Others

CDU/CSU has no majority (41-48).

New Bavaria federal election poll by Forsa:

49% CSU
19% SPD
14% Greens
  5% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Pirates
  7% Others

...

3 new state election polls:

Lower Saxony - Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF

39% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  4% Others

SPD-Greens has a slim 46-44 majority over CDU-FDP.

Lower Saxony - GMS for the state-CDU

41% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  2% Others

46-46 tie between CDU-FDP and SPD-Greens.

Bavaria - Forsa

46% CSU
18% SPD
13% Greens
  9% Freie Wähler
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  2% Pirates
  5% Others

CSU has a 46-40 absolute majority.

Prediction:

SPD-Greens is losing it in Lower Saxony.

...

PS: Strangely strong showing by the Left in Bavaria @ 4% in the Forsa poll.

But they already got 4.4% in the 2008 state election, so maybe they could pull off something similar. Or the poll is just bad. Probably the latter.

What are the chances that the McAllister-CDU wins close to 45% on election day and the FDP about 5% ?

Maybe not quite 45, but he's popular enough something like that might happen.

Just noticed that the TV debate between McAllister and the SPD-guy will start in 15 minutes.

Here is the live-stream:

http://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/livestream217.html

Note that the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen figures are not a poll, but a projection.  As such, they are also including longer-term partisan trends and voters' tactical considerations. Unfortunately, neither the underlying actual polling data nor the detailed mechanism to convert this data into a projection are being published.

Further details from the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll:

• 50% of CDU leaners think that CDU voters should help the FDP to pass the 5% threshold
• 42% of respondents are yet unsure for whom to vote, or whether to vote at all. (Again, no further breakdown between 'undecided' and 'not sure whether I will vote" has been published.)
• Coalition preferences (% "would like", i.e. multiple answers possible): CDU/SPD 47, SPD/Green 47, CDU/FDP 30, CDU/Green 26

My guesses:

• Actual FDP support is considerably lower than 5%, probably not more than some 2%. The projection, however, assumes that enough CDU leaners will 'lend' their vote to the FDP to pull them above 5%. This also implies that current CDU support might rather be around 42% (i.e. where the GMS poll puts it), but has been reduced by some 3% to account for FDP 'vote lending'.
• Roughly half of the 42% 'undecided' are only unsure whether to vote CDU or FDP.  To which extent the remaining 21% 'undecided' are still up for grabs by the CDU, or only swinging between SPD/Greens/Linke/Pirates, is left for anyone to guess.

In any case, this will become a nail-biter.

Two questions/musings:

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in Bavaria?

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in the Federal election?

Bonus question musing:

Chances that the CDU/CSU wins in the high 40s in the Federal election and wins an outright majority of seats?

10%
1%
3-5%

Question 1: Only if the CSU backs a plan to create an additional 2 or 3 starting lanes at the Munich Airport and the SPD back their plans ... :P

Question 2: Only if a Nuclear Power Plant blows up somewhere in Germany.

Question 3: Only if Merkel does something "really cool" in the next months and the economy recovers.

Nothing Merkel or the CDU do will really have an influence on number 3. The economy is already doing reasonably well.

It'd just be the result of a fluke if FDP, Piraten and Linke all managed to go slightly under 5%.

As addendum to my last post, in illustration on the difference between Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projections and polls, a comparison of their December 2012 Federal results (outdated, January figures should come in tomorrow):

CDU: Poll 44, Projection 40
SPD: Poll 34, Projection 30
Greens: Poll 13, Projection 13
FDP: Poll 2, Projection 4
Linke: Poll 5, Projection 7
Pirates: Poll 1, Projection 3
Others: Poll n/a, Projection 3

In other words: In their projection, they typically shift 2% from CDU to FDP, 2% from CDU to others (makes sense, NPD etc. which may not be stated in polls), 2% from SPD to Linke, and 2% from SPD to Pirates / others.

For the 2009 Federal election, FORSA was by far the most accurate pollster. They were the only pollster which saw the rise of the Pirates coming, did not - like everybody else - overestimate CDU performance, and were one of the two (emnid being the other) that had the Left correctly at 12%.
On the other hand, their Bavaria poll has been in the field for an extremely long time (since Dec 17), so the findings may be partly outdated. That should, however, first of all put their SPD result in question.

Steinbrück is crashing in the latest ARD poll:

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Job approval ratings:

()

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 11.01.2013, Federal Elections

Raw poll data [projection in brackets]

CDU:        49 (+5)     [42 (+2)]
SPD:        27 (-7)      [28 (-2)]
Greens:    13 (-)        [13 (-)]
Linke:       4 (-1)     [  6 (-1)]

FDP:         2 (-)        [ 4 (-)]
Piraten:     2 (+1)      [ 3 (-)]
Others       n/a          [  4 (+1)]

Preferred chancellor: Merkel 65%, Steinbrück 25% [SPD leaners: 27% Merkel, 62% Steinbrück, Grüne leaners: 43% Merkel, 47% Steinbrück]

Politician scores: Gains for Merkel, Schäuble, Seehofer, Trittin; losses for Steinbrück, Gabriel, Westerwelle, Rösler

Chart slideshow with further questions:
http://wahltool.zdf.de/Politbarometer/mediathekflash.shtml?2013_01_11
[long-term trendlines can be accessed via the menu on the right-hand side]

INFO/Focus, 12.01.2013, Niedersachsen State Election:

CDU 38%
SPD 31,5%
Grüne 14,5%
Linke 6%

FDP 4,5%
Piraten 3%

Red-Green majority (46-44).

But only works if the FDP stays out, of course. And the Linke number seems a bit high to me.

CDU-FDP hanging on depending on the Left staying out does tend to ensure it gets in. In the end, people usually want the government out more than they want a particular alternative in.

And it's not as if the state SPD ruled out governing with the Left if necessary.

We'll see, but Lower Saxony really doesn't seem like a place where the Left should be doubling its support at the last minute...

I was thinking McAllister would survive somehow, but maybe confirming black-yellow in office is too much for some people to stomach.

I'd probably vote SPD in this election, btw.

Meh, who knows whether that 3% was ever accurate.

Also, of course... the Left got 7.1% in 2008, more than in Hesse on the same day (though that had a lot to do with the state SPD being wholly uninspiring and the resulting low turnout) and 8.6% at the 2009 federals, above their West German average.

There was also a third poll in Niedersachsen out Thursday.

Lower Saxony - Infratest dimap for ARD, 10.01.2013

40% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

SPD-Greens 46-45 over CDU-FDP.

This is almost identical with the FG Wahlen and GMS polls published the same day, and their field periods are also similar, as all three have collected their data early this week. The field period of the outlier poll from INFO is in fact a week earlier than the others, just after new year's day, which might explain something, though not the Linke surge. INFO's new poll is the first and only Lower Saxony poll since September that expects Linke to cross the 5% limit.

If the poll consensus holds right, then the Left would not get in and FDP would have 50-50 chance of clearing the 5% hurdle. Based on that, CDU just has to lend some Zweitstimmen-support to FDP to keep up the hope of a continuing right-wing government. The Left is more of a question, however: as has been said above, they have actually had better results in Lower Saxony than in other western states (Saarland being the obvious exception). And in January 2008, all polls predicted 3% to 5% for the Left, and still they got 7,1%. So there is room for surprise.

New Emnid poll:

41% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Left
  4% Pirates
  3% FDP
  4% Others

In the last 2 months, the gap between CDU/CSU and SPD has widened from 8% to 15% ...

()

Indeed ... :P

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing :)

Kinda yeah...

At this point, the best thing that could happen to SPD is probably for it to fall into irrelevancy and start again from scratch in a couple years.

It's still very unlikely, of course, but a CDU absolute majority might be best for everyone. Stable government, FDP and SPD get to start over...

Very true.

However, I'd rather it not happen in such crucial times for Europe, where CDU's stances could potentially ruin everything... (Yes, I know SPD isn't much better on this regard, but still)

I remain of the opinion that crashing out of the Bundestag would probably be the death of the FDP, and have been at pretty much any point since the 60s.

Time to start thinking about a coalition with the Greens and the Left, SPD.

It's too late, for 2013.

And it's not as if the nationwide Left has been trying to become more "respectable" either, the hard left's influence has grown.

2013 is gone.

Either CDU-FDP again or a Grand Coalition.

Then in 2017, Merkel vs. Kraft.

Kraft would be a very good idea for the SPD.

If there's a Grand Coalition, SPD will have to forget about 2017, most likely.

In former West Germany, SPD should be open to coalitions with Left Party, at least to see how works.

At this point, there aren't that many places in West Germany where the Left would even get in.

And things are moving that way at the state level.

From a purely tactical point of view, a black-green coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens) would be ideal for the SPD. Many Green Party members were politically socialised in the 80s and 90s, in strong opposition to the Kohl government, and are still staunchly anti-conservative. In case of a black-green coalition, they would most likely move to the SPD, already beginning during the coalition agreement talks. The Greens being forced to compromise with the CDU would alienate their base even more.

The leaders of the Greens know this as well, of course, which is why it won't happen.

Said LibDem supporters before the last UK election.

INSA/YouGov poll, Federal election (15.1.2013)

CDU 39 ()
SPD 28 ()
Grüne 15 (+1)
Linke 7 ()

FDP 4 ()
Piraten 3 ()

Freie Wähler 2 ()
others 2 (-1)

Less swingy than the other recent polls, but its internet polling.

CDU/CSU is continuing it's dramatic gains in the newest Forsa poll. And now a TWENTY point margin between them and the SPD.

Forsa, 16.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 43%
SPD 23%
Grüne 14%
Linke 8%

Piraten 4%
FDP 3%

Black ALONE is only trailing the entire (represented) opposition 43-45.
Red-Green FAR AWAY from a majority (37-51).

You beat me on the FORSA poll! Nevertheless, one more interesting detail:  According to FORSA, many SPD leaners, frustrated and irritated by the debate on Steinbrück, "duck away and don't dare to commit to their party".

But i still have one:

EMNID, Bavaria State elections (for CSU!), 15.01.13:

CSU      48 ()
SPD      20 (-1)
Grüne   12 (+2)
FW         8 ()

FDP       3 (-1)
Linke     3 (+1)
Piraten   3 (-1)
Others   3 ()

Changes relate to last EMNID poll (14.10.2012)  

And you just barely beat me on the Bavarian one. Easy CSU majority remains easy, with 48-40...

If you had tried to combine FORSA and EMNID Bavaria in one post, I would have beaten you on both ..

It is surprising that the Greens are not profiting more from the SPD's weakness (o.k., in Bavaria they are, but not in the Federal election polls). Seems like everybody is waiting whether they will stand to their red-green commitment once the Lower Saxony election is through ..

One wonders how the narrative will change after sunday, indeed. If tigerduck is not reelected, that is - that would not create a new narrative.

So is CDU-FDP (or CDU alone? lol) practically destined for re-election if black-yellow is re-elected in Niedersachsen? I'm starting to get that impression.

Might get even worse (or more interesting, depending on your perspective) in Lower Saxony: FDP in with CDU loan votes, CDU / FPD and SPD / Greens virtually tied, and Linke in due to frustrated SPD leaners.

Resulting government options:
a.) Grand coalition (led by CDU)
b.) Black - green
c.) Traffic-light (note that the Lower Saxony FDP leader and Minister of Environment, Stefan Birkner, is the brother-in-law of Schleswig-Holstein's Green party leader and Minister of Environment, Robert Habeck)
d.) Red-green minority government tolerated by Linke.

Prepare for at least three weeks of non-stop drama.

Bonus questions: Provided FDP comes in with CDU loan votes, the CDU may only get to 36-37%. Still ahead of SPD, but more than 5% loss agianst 2008. Will McAllister survive or step down?

If CDU comes in at 36%, they would be entitled to 49 (out of 135)  seats, but they won 68 FPTP mandates in 2008. So, if the CDU loses less than 20 FPTP mandates to SPD, any senior government member that fails to conquer her/his district is out of the new Landtag. McAllister  runs in a reasonably safe CDU district, but not so his "crown princes" (Schünemann in Holzminden- lean CDU, Althusmann in Lüneburg - lean SPD, Ökzan in Hannover-Mitte - safe SPD).

FPTP projection map for Lower Saxony (54 CDU, 33 SPD): http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_130112.html (http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_130112.html)
P.S.1: I personally do not dare to make any projection for the national level until we know about the conposition of the next Lower Saxony government.

P.S.2: One thing is sure - unless CDU/ FDP cruise to victory in Lower Saxony, after Sunday, Steinbrück's gaffes will disappear from the headlines for some weeks ...

So, Steinbruck is basically a joke candidate?

He made himself one.

Hence the thread joke of gaffe intervals being "Steinbrucks" with "Romneys" as decimals. :P

The irony is that Steinbrück wasn't a joke candidate before he actually became a candidate.

Prior to his nomination he was widely considered to be f***king awesome, in a "omg, Merkel is really screwed now!" kind of way.

To be perfectly fair, however, we'll have to admit that it was not Steinbrück's fault. Like, he had a real chance, messed it up, and in consequence, Merkel will win again. Instead, it was the other way round: The media and the general public desired a Merkel victory right from the beginning. Therefore, they needed (to make up) reasons why Steinbrück couldn't win.

That's why his recent "scandals" were blown up in a ridicolous way. For example, the fact that he is rich and got fees for his speeches could (and should) have been a sidenote. Instead, the media orchestrated a month-long campaign, even though he'd done nothing illegal.

Or, take the last "scandal" for another example: When he said that the chancellor's salary is too low, it was interpreted as a sign of greed. Had he uttered the exact opposite ("The chancellor's salary is too high."), I bet the headline would have been: "Envious Steinbrück is jealous of poor Merkel's salary!"

Yes, this is normally the way with so-called 'gaffe-prone' politicians. It isn't as though they don't do the things they're pulled up for, it's that when this happens there's usually an agenda at work.

Steinbrück should have known about Merkel's women network, which includes Friede Springer (Springer-Verlag - BILD, PRO 7, SAT 1), Sabine Christiansen (former ARD talk show host), Liz Mohn (Bertelsmann Verlag - RTL), Berlin event queen Isa von Hardenberg, etc. He also should have known how Merkel has dealt with rivals inside her party.

The "speech honoraria" issue was silly, and reasonably quickly dismissed. But it should have served as a warning on things to come. And what does Steinbrück? Interview after interview, just before Christmas, when domestic policy news are scarce, and the press is eager to have something to write about. Obviously, he hoped to be able to set the policy agenda. But his interviews came totally unprepared, i.e.  without launching issues in advance via 'friendly' media, and without ensuring adequate orchestration, e.g from civil society groups. That was stone-age PR!

Moreover, he did not realise that there are times when it is better to shut your mouth, and not to answer certain questions (e.g. chancellor's salary). To cite my local paper again "Fast thinker without adequate brain-to-mouth filter. High time for campaign reboot in protected mode".

Bottom line: Naive, unprepared, uncontrolled. No chancellor material.

A new poll from GMS for Lower Saxony:

CDU: 41%
SPD: 33%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 5%
Left: 3%
Pirates: 3%
Others:2%

CDU-FDP 46% vs SPD-Greens 46%!

It stays exciting!

I'd say a greater than 50-50 chance black-yellow holds on.

I'm not pretending that he doesn't have a foot-in-mouth problem or even really defending him as such, just agreeing with the obvious truth that this sort of thing is only ever an issue when the media have decided to make it an issue. Of course you can soon get to the point where things that are not 'gaffes' are deemed to be them: Michael Foot's donkey jacket that wasn't, etc.

Yep, of course, the gaffe thing was orchestrated.

The point I was trying to make is that Merkel's excellent media relation through her women's network is widely known. So Steinbrück should have prepared himself, acted carefully, and built counter-alliances before exposing himself. He didn't - and that tells about his political talent (and team-playing abilities).

The trend looks favorable for the black-yellow coalition in Lower Saxony. I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to get a narrow majority again. In fact, I think this is the most likely outcome at this point.

New Infratest dimap polls

Federal (18.01.2013), for ARD:

CDU        42 (+1)
SPD         26 (-2)
Grüne      13 (-1)
Linke         7 (+1)

FDP          4 ()
Piraten      4 (+1)
Others      4 ()

Rheinland-Pfalz, State (17.01.2013), for SWR:

CDU       43 (+3)
SPD        33 (-3)
Grüne     13 (+1)

FDP         2 (-1)
Linke       3  (+1)
Piraten    3 ()
others     3 (-1)

On Janzary 16,2013, Kurt Beck has stepped down as state PM (he is turning 65 this February) and been replaced by Malu Dreyer (SPD).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malu_Dreyer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malu_Dreyer)

Any predictions for the Niedersachsen state elections? Here's mine:

CDU: 41%
Their potential is even higher, but they'll lose a bunch of tactical voters to the FDP.

SPD: 27%
The SPD share will collapse, perhaps to even lower levels than 27%. Polls generally tend to overestimate SPD support; moreover, the media climate for them is toxic right now. In the end, a great number of SPD voters will stay at home.

Greens: 15%
They will benefit from disgruntled SPD voters, but not enough to make up for the SPD's losses.

FDP: 8%
The "big surprise" of the evening, but not for me. The hardcore FDP supporters alone would have sufficed to put them over the 5% threshold. Now, they'll get a big number of additional votes from tactical CDU-voters.

The Left: 4%
Will profit a bit from SPD supporters who don't like Steinbrück, but not enough to make it to 5%.

Others: 5%
Pirates won't play a role in this one.

Conclusion:
Easy win for black-yellow, already foreshadowing the Bundestag results in September. Things could only get interesting if the Left somehow managed to reach over 5%. But even in this case, CDU-FDP should have a stable majority.

O,k,, here I go:

First, the major blocks:

• CDU/FPD together at 44 % - this is their average showing in the January polls, and 2-3% more than they had in the December polls. Still quite a swing, but less than the swing in current federal elections polls- those were opinions, now comes a real election.
• Sonstige (further ran) 3%. NPD below 1% (the NSU shock has not yet fully ebbed away), but quite sone eurosceptic Freie Wähler vote, plus 1% who even find the Pirates already too established
• SPD/Grüne/Linke/Piraten: 53% (which is the balance).

Now the detailed breakdown:
CDU/FPD This is tricky. I orient on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll, which saw generic FDP support at only 2%, but also found 50% of CDU leaners favoring CDU support to lift the FDP above 5%.  For such potential "FDP loan voters' there is little incentive to "withold" their loan - an absolute CDU majority is, according to all polls, out of reach. Since the FDP does not yet appear to be 'safe', I tend to assume that roughly one quarter of potential 'FDP loan voters' will actually vote FDP. 42% CDU lean * 50% "support FDP" * 0.25 ~ 5.5%. So, my prediction is: FDP 7.5% (2% generic + 5.5%  'loan'). CDU 36.5 %, [/li][/list]

SPD: 31 % That's the easy one - the SPD is regularly polled too high (frustrated leaners not turning out, plus landline polling, which neglects cell-only voters -> Grüne, Linke, Piraten). So I take the polling consensus of 33%, minus  2% average SPD overestimate as occured in the recent state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and the Saarland.

Grüne: 14,5%.: Similar story - regularly underestimated by landline polling, plus suburbanisation (well-earning university graduates becoming parents, moving out of the posh inner-city quarters into some semi-urban area where no pollster expects anybody to vote green). So I take the polling consensus of 13%, plus 1% underestimate, plus 0.5% of disgruntled SPD leaners (and moderate / environmentalist catholics that would hate a SPD-led government, but now see black-green as a possible option).

Pirates: 2.5% 3% is the polling consensus, including INFO / YouGov (internet polling). Now, if there is anybody who should have a good grab at the Pirate's support, it is an internet pollster, so  I don't see the Pirates crossing 3%. In neighbouring Schleswig-Holstein, the Pirates have so far performed rather poorly in the state legislature, which people (at least in the northern half of Lower Saxony) will have noticed.

Linke: 5 % All landline polls have them at 3%, but INFO/ YouGov internet polling at 6%. In 2008 they performed 2% better than the poll average (landline polling issue), and they may repeat this. They are also quite likely to pick up some disgruntled SPD voters.

Bottomline: A nailbiter. Decimals will decide whether the Linke passes 5%, and whether black-yellow or red-green is in front (which is becoming irrelevant if the Linke make it past the 5% hurdle). Furthermore, as CDU overhanging mandates are likely (resulting in additional compensation mandates that complicate seat allocation), it will take several hours until the winners are known (if there are any).
 

My Niedersachsen prediction:

42% CDU
31% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP (slightly above 5% to be exact)
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

CDU-FDP re-elected with 47% vs. 44%.

My prediction:
CDU 37-40%
SPD slightly below 30% (bad trend)
Greens 14-15%
FDP 6-7% (including tactical vote)
Left 4-5% (profitting from disgruntled SPD voters, but seen as "lost vote")
Pirates 3%
Others 3-4%

CDU/FDP slightly favored, but very close.

My prediction:

CDU 39.5
SPD 29.5
Grüne 15.0
FDP 6.0

Linke 4.5
Piraten 2.0

sonstige 3.5


CDU + FDP (black-yellow): 45.5
SPD + Greens (red-green): 44.5

Prediction

CDU 41.0
SPD 28.0
Grüne 15.5

Linke 4.5
FDP 4.5
Piraten 3.5
sonstige 3.0

43% CDU
31% SPD
15% Greens
4.9% FDP
  3% Left
  2% Pirates
  2% Others

Lower Saxony predition:

39% CDU - Some tactical voters for FDP, while getting a few centrist swing voters.
29% SPD - Steinbrück dragging even the state party down.
15% Greens - Benefits of SPD voters.
  8% FDP - Still alive, and tactical voting adds 1-2 percent or so.
  4,5% Left - Again higher than polls, but just not enough to get in.
  2,5% Pirates - They are on a way to becoming a local party in Berlin city election in a few years.
  2% All others

Leading to a continued black-yellow majority of 47% against 44% of the red-green.

Ahead of the state election, a new federal Emnid poll:

43% CDU/CSU (+2)
25% SPD (-1)
13% Greens (-1)
  7% Left (-1)
  4% FDP (+1)
  4% Pirates (nc)
  4% Others (nc)

Biggest. Gap. Ever.

Compared with their 11/11 poll, it seems 5% from the SPD switched over to the CDU (38-30).

Lower Saxony:

First turnout measurement at 10am: 5.37% (down from 5.67% in 2008)

http://www.landeswahlleiter.niedersachsen.de/portal/live.php?navigation_id=6743&article_id=112202&_psmand=21

Doubt it will stay that way, but we're almost in CDU absolute majority territory regardless of whether the Left gets in... (43-45 with the Left at 7%)

Lower Saxony turnout at 12:30pm:

23.03% (up from 22.65% in 2008)

Alright, for the heck of it, a prediction.

CDU 41.6%
SPD 28.1%
Greens 13.6%
FDP 5.5%
Left 5.2%
Pirate 3.0%
other 3.0%

McAllister barely hangs on.

Prediction- big surprises ahoy!!
CDU 45.2%
SPD 25.7%
Greens 12.4%
FDP 7.1%
Left 5.1%
Pirate 2.6%
other 1.9%

When do the polls close and how long does it take for results to trickle in?

Polls close in 45 minutes. Exit polls immediately, which are usually quite reliable within 1% or so.

Polls close at 18 h MET (in 45 minutes). Exit polls will be available immediately, first projection at around 18:30. Final results should be available by 22:00.However, if it is really tight and also depending on FPTP votes (and consequent allocation of compensation votes), it may take until midnight.

Participation is surprisingly high, which is a good sign for SPD. At 16:30, 51.3% had voted, compared to 49.5% at the same time five years ago.

For those understanding German, the best place to follow results should be
http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/index.html (http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/index.html).

Otherwise, try http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/lower-saxony-election-could-foretell-national-vote-a-878457.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/lower-saxony-election-could-foretell-national-vote-a-878457.html)

I'm really kind of undecided about this election.

I'd probably vote SPD in Niedersachsen, and I don't really want to see black-yellow given the satisfaction of surviving as a coalition, but on the other hand.....watching the SPD in the coming days and weeks if they screw this up massively....would also be quite amusing.

53.3%

listening to the NDR livestream, they seem to be hinting it's looking good for black-yellow.

You are right. Thanks for the correction-

Looks like a good day for the Conservatives in Germany/Austria today ... :P

guesstimated final turnout 60.5%.

These are often quite wrong, though.

46-46!!!

CDU 36.0
SPD 32.5
FDP 10.0
Greens 13.5
Left 3.5
Pirates 2.0

Some surprises. And a long wait.

Ok ...

68-67 seats for Black/Yellow

10% FDP ?

WTF ?

"If you want to see McAllister reelected you have to vote FDP".

Looks like the CDU loan votes for FDP worked.  In retrospect SPD should have loaned some votes to Linke.

That's what they did in 2008, to ensure CDU does not get an absolute majority.

ZDF exit polls show 36.5 vs 36.5.  Wow, this will take a while to figure out who won and will have to take into account the FPTP winners.

Epic result for FDP if true (at 9.5 to 10%), yet dissapointing for CDU. Really expected a single party near-majority. SDGP Vs CFDU neck and neck as well. Nail-biter. I'll be supporting McAllister for Premier.

LOL

Both ARD and ZDF are currently predicting a 1-seat majority for the black-yellow coalition but take this with a huge grain of salt ... This will be a nailbiter.

Yeah, German exit polls are very good....but I wouldn't bet the farm on a 1 seat majority in them.

ZDF

FDP 9.6
Green 13.5
SPD 32.9
CDU 36.8

CDU/FDP    46.4
SDP/Green 46.4

Eesh, US 2000 style nailbiter.

ARD has CDU-FDP narrowly ahead in votes, but also at effective tie.

This should be seen as disappointing to CDU.  If CDU were told ahead of time that Left would be below 5% and FDP will be above 5%, then CDU would have expected a small but significant majority.  Instead it is neck to neck.

Only I doubt this election will be going to court... ;)

And I doubt that Lower Saxony is as bad as Florida in counting votes.

Yeah.  The worst actually is New York State where I live.  10 weeks after the nov 2012 elections, they finally have the results in for one of the New York State Senate races.  Florida is bad, New York is worse.

lmao, they actually polled FDP supporters in the exit poll. These percentages agreed with the following propositions...

91% I could have just as well voted CDU
87% I cared mostly about reelecting McAllister
68% My vote is a classic "borrowed vote"
45% I decided to vote FDP some time ago
33% the FDP is the party I feel closest to
20% I am wholly convinced of the party I voted for

They actually said they've never seen numbers quite as crass.

Merkel party leads state vote; majority unclear: exit polls
Jan. 20 (AFP) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party was in the lead Sunday after the first state poll in a general election year, exit polls indicated, but it was unclear whether its coalition would hang on to power.
Exit poll results from Lower Saxony broadcast on public television showed Merkel's Christian Democrats leading with around 37 percent and their current coalition partners, the Free Democrats, with about 10 percent. The Social Democrats had about 33 percent and their favoured allies the Greens 14 percent.
The knife-edge race was due to develop throughout the night as results trickle in, determining which coalition will come out on top eight months before a national election that will decide whether Merkel wins a third term.
The Christian Democrats (CDU) were down from their 42.5 percent score at the last election in 2008 but appeared to benefit from the popularity of state premier David McAllister, a half-Scot seen as a potential Merkel successor.
The big winners of the night, however, were the pro- business Free Democrats (FDP), who looked to tally their best result in Lower Saxony in post-war history.
Polls had indicated they risked slipping below the five- percent hurdle required for seats in the state parliament but they seemed to get a lift from conservative voters splitting their ballots under Germany's two-vote system in a bid to rescue the coalition.
If the FDP failed to win representation, its embattled leader Philipp Roesler, who is also Merkel's vice chancellor, was seen as likely to step down -- possibly as soon as Sunday night.
The outcome seemed to give him a reprieve, if only brief. Around 6.2 million people were called to the polls in Lower Saxony, home to European auto giant Volkswagen and run by the same centre-right alliance with which Merkel governs in Berlin.
If the state coalition holds on to power, analysts say it will give Merkel, who already enjoys a robust lead in national polls and ranks as Germany's most popular politician, a strong boost heading into the September election.
But if the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens manage to eke out a victory -- a distinct possibility based on the exit polls -- pundits say it could help shore up the battered campaign of Merkel's gaffe-prone challenger Peer Steinbrueck.
Steinbrueck, a former finance minister from Merkel's 2005- 09 "grand coalition" government, was anointed by the SPD as its chancellor candidate last autumn.
But he has run into trouble in recent months with revelations that he made around 1.25 million euros ($1.66 million) over the last three years in speaking fees, and with comments that Merkel owed much of her popularity to her gender. dlc/gd

 

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

He already is. :P

Dead in the sense that he has as much chance of becoming chancellor as Steinmeier 4 years ago....or dead in the sense that you think he'll be replaced as Kanzlerkandidat?

Latest ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.5%
SDP/Greens  46.3%

The party that seems to be gaining as the count goes on seems to be FDP

CDU does seem to have a tendency to gain 1% or so between the first exit poll and the final results.

1 plus the possibility of 2. :)

2 happening would be really fun to watch.

New ZDF poll (19:00)

CDU 36.4
SPD 32.7
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.7

Red-green 46.3, black-yellow 46.1

Seat projection 75-75 (including FPTP & compensation)!

This will become a long evenng !

Latest ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.1%
SDP/Greens  46.3%

Wann kann wir die ersten Wahlkreisergebnisse sehen?

Sobald sie ausgezählt sind.

stimmt ;)

aber hast du keine idee?

The state page does not do running counts, only releasing district results once they're complete. And seems to be down due to traffic. Same old same old... ::)

http://www.wahl.hannit.de/

Looks like the SPD is ahead across most of the Hanover suburbs. Lacks comparison figures, though.

ARD

CDU/FDP      46.3%
SDP/Greens  45.9%

Latest ZDF Projection (19:23)

CDU 36.5
SPD 32.5
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.7

black-yellow 45.2 red-green 45.1

black-yellow leads with 73 - 72 seats

First district results expected after 20 h.

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.2%
SPD/Greens 46.1%

ARD projections (20:00):

CDU 36.3
SPD 32.6
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.8

Red-green 46.2 black-yellow 46.1

Either +1 seat red-green, or both blocks equal, depends on FPTP & compensation

That would be so hilarious.

Quite the election.

Some background on Lower-Saxony FPTP:

According to the latest ARD & ZDF polls, the CDU would be entitled to 53 seats. However, the last FPTP projection published a a few days ago projected 54 FPTP seats for the CDU. In this case, the CDU would keep the extra seat. If they gain more than 54 FPTP, other parties would get compensated (i.e. the seat total rises), but even after compensation, CDU might stil get one seat more than they would get on proportional assignment.

According to available data, Hannover FPTP seats should go 4 SPD, 1 CDU, which is in line with pre-election predictions

ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.1%
SDP/Greens  46.2%

No change from previous projection 30 minutes ago.

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

A tie still seems possible...

What about a tie.  Would not that not mean a grand coalition?

Intresting.  It would seem that a majority SPD/Greens would be out if CDU would get these bonus seats.   I guess what they have to hope for is to win by one seat and in turn means a tie which would mean a grand coalition.

Mhm, okay, it's seems you're right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XyMePUidzs

CDU GAIN Delmenhorst!

Here are some results for the Göttingen region

(http: / /) wahlen.kds.de/2013ltw/index.html , I cannot include links.

SPD won the constituencies of Göttingen and Göttingen/Münden, Northeim, Einbeck, Osterode and Holzminden (where Minister of the Interior, Schürnemann (CDU), lost).
CDU won Duderstadt.

Which makes a FTPT net gain of 1 for the SPD in this region (Holzminden).

According to the german wikipedia the SPD in Delmenhorst had some kind of corruption scandal, where the former SPD Landtag member Swantje Hartmann was involved.

CDU    SPD    FDP    Grüne    Linke
Stimmenanteil in %    39,1    37,7    4,6    11,5    3,7
Veränderung    +5,6    -5,4    -1,5    +7,9    -5,2
Abgegebene Stimmen    10914    10524    1297    3222    1034
Piraten: 3,4% 936.
Zweitstimmen    CDU    SPD    FDP    Grüne    Linke
Stimmenanteil in %    34,0    34,5    8,2    12,9    3,9
Veränderung    -2,0    -0,4    +0,9    +7,1    -6,2

Delmenhorst list SPD 34.5 (+0.9), CDU 34.0 (-2.0), Greens 12.9 (+7.1), FDP 8.2 (+0.9), Left 3.9 (-6.2)
direct however... CDU 39.1 (+5.6), SPD 37.7 (-1.5), Greens 11.5 (+7.9), FDP 4.6 (-1.5), Left 3.7 (-5.2)

Looks like a popular incumbent stood down... and like Green voters didn't split their tickets much.

EDIT: Or that.

http://wahlarchiv.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2013-01-20-LT-DE-NI/html-wkreise-20-42.shtml

At last, a working link to the results announced so far.

It's back to 72-72 tie on ZDF. I don't quite get in which circumstances there are extra-seats allocated.

I don't think anyone does...

Well that's reassuring... ;)

@Watermelon: Extra seats are allocated, if one party wins more FPTP districts than it would get seats in the Landtag according to proportional representation for the full 135 seats, so called Überhangmandate. As Niedersachsen has a share of 87/135 "direct seats" there are many Überhangmandate possible. Those are compensated but a mixture of rounding errors and D'Hondt seat allocation can lead to a fully 50/50 in the Landtag.

The CDU seems to be winning more wahlkreise than election.de had predicted...

LOL - the Black Sheriff is gone! Seems my sister and my nieces voted right..

Checked Hannover-Land results (counting not yet finished):
3 CDU FPTP (Langenhagen, Garbsen, Springe)
4 too close too call (less than 500 votes difference): Laatzen (SPD lead), Lehrte, Neustadt, Barsinghausen  (all CDU lead).

Pre-election projection was 4 CDU - 3 SPD

Home Minister Uwe Schünemann goes down.
And Gerhard Schröder's wife fails to win the seat she ran for, despite the SPD leading the list vote.

For those who can read German, here is the Lower Saxon overhang mechanism, as described by wahlrecht.de

Überhang- und Ausgleichsmandate
Gewinnt eine Partei in den Wahlkreisen mehr Mandate als ihr nach dem Verhältnisausgleich zustehen, so verbleiben diese Sitze der Partei. Die übrigen Parteien erhalten Ausgleichsmandate. Dazu wird die Zahl 135 um das Doppelte der Anzahl der Überhangmandate erhöht. Diese Mandatszahl dient dann als Grundlage einer erneuten Berechnung entsprechend des o. a. Verfahrens. Sind auch nach dieser zweiten Verteilung immer noch Überhangmandate vorhanden, so verbleiben sie der Partei ohne weiteren Ausgleich. Aufgrund dieser recht halbherzigen Lösung ist es zudem möglich, daß eine Partei gleichzeitig Überhang- und Ausgleichsmandate erhält.

That's frigging weird. Echoes of Schleswig-Holstein... not to mention Florida. :P

Will there be an uproar if due to overhand seats bonus, CDU/FDP wins less votes than SPD/Greens but comes to power with a one seat majority?  Or does the population accept that as part of the system.

Actually, no one knows, as this never happened anywhere, before. But as there is some discussion as black-wellow did want to tailor the federal election law in their favour there is some uproar possible.

Yep - black-yellow seems to be great in doing unconstitutional election system reforms. After their last two reforms of Federal election law have been scrapped by the Constitutional Court, we still don't have a valid legal base for the federal elections this Spetember.


We had a similar situation In Schleswig-Holstein in 2009, which went to constitutional court and resulted in early elections last autumn. However, the Lower Saxony compensation modus is less extreme, so it may actually get through undisputed.

ARD

CDU/FDP     46.2
SPD/Green   46.0

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.1
SPD/Green   46.3

Both seems to be released around the same time.

Wow: Grüne come in ahead of CDU in Oldenburg Mitte/Süd  (25.8 vs. 23.6), and get 25.1% in Lüneburg! Would not wonder if they came out first in Göttingen.

What about black/green if black/yellow fails to prevent black/red?

I'd like to see this.

Not with McAllister, not with the Lower Saxony Greens.

And - what really matters most - not a few months ahead of the Bundestag election.

SPD 29.9, Greens 28.5. So close.

I count 46 CDU, 31 SPD, 10 seats still out.

FPTP seats I think SPD already won 32 out of the 87 seats available.  That means that CDU at most will have 55 seats in FPTP seats.  It seems that given current vote shares, CDU should get around 56 seats.  This means the chances of a overhang of seats for CSU is low.

SPD up to 33 seats out of 87. 

ARD

CDU/FDP       46.0
SPD/Greens   46.3

With CDU getting overhang seats window closing, it seems that it will either be a 2 seat lead for SPD/Greens or a tie.  Most likely a tie.  This is fun.

It's apparently looking like almost certain that it'll be either a one-seat lead for red-green or a tie; as well as a tiny red-green vote lead.

ARD

CDU/FDP       45.9
SPD/Greens   46.3

The SDP/Greens lead is growing.

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.1
SPD/Green   46.2

but does project SPD/Green seat lead of 69-68

Recount!!!

I don't understand how the result can become 69-68

If CDU gets one überhangmandate, shouldn't two Ausgleichmandate be given, so the total tally should be 138?

EDIT: Sorry, misread it. Thought it sad that Ausgleichmandate should be twice the Überhangmandate, but it really said that the number of seats should be highened by the number of ÜberhangmandateX2.

It looks more and more like SPD/Greens, rather than CDU/SPD.

In any case, CDU/FDP has become more or less impossible, it seems?

No.

If they'd be using a logical process, the number would depend entirely on how things round - there'd be so many seats as are needed for the CDU to "deserve" the number of seats it actually got (the lowest such number, so marginally favoring the overhang-winning party already). But in Lower Saxony, the number of Ausgleichsmandate is identical to the number of Überhangmandate. And in rare cases (not relevant to the situation now), the CDU might even get some of them! :D

What's the story behind the CDU leader in Lower Soxony having such a Scottish sounding name?

He has a British father.

And double citizenship.

He's a dual Scottish-German citizen :)

What? Scottish father! :P

Soon, hopefully. For now it's British-German.

That ARD thing is missing only the Hameln result, has been for, what? An hour?
The official state page has a 53-district result up, with comparison result for that part of the state. Applying a uniform swing to that gives a 0.2 CDU-FDP lead, actually, but it's missing a lot of Green strong areas (probably all of the Hanover area, plus x).

Come on. I wanna know who won. Tell me who won. >:(

ARD says that red-green have won according to their "final projection". But everybody knows better than to trust the ARD.

I wouldn't trust an electoral system where you elect a Parliament that can end up plus or minus 10 members depending on outcome...

For what it's worth, ZDF came up with the same seat projections as ARD.

A few minutes earlier, too.

So if SPD wins by the skin of their teeth... interesting.

Oh, I just noticed that red-green defeated a cdu-fdp coalition here in Hesse 22 years ago to the day!

http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/eventlivestream865.html

Any moment now... NDR cameras already aimed at where the Landeswahlleiter is supposed to announce the result....

Come on, hurry up... I want to go to bed.

Ich muss morgen um 6 raus...

There she is!

Official result

CDU 54
SPD 49
Greens 20
FDP 14

And there you have it. Black-yellow and McAllister have been defeated.

This must give the opposition quite a large majority in the Bundesrat as well?

By the narrowest possible margin. So no federal Mo either way.

Some more highlights from the ARD exit polls:

McAllister did a good job: 69 %
CDU/FDP should stay in government: 39 %
Time for government change: 57 %
Prefered coalition: red-green 52 %,  black-yellow 36 %

Which party is most competent:

Topic         Relevance      CDU    SPD       FDP
Education        45%           33      45       2
Employment     24%           43     37
Economy          13%           51     32        3
Families            12%           31     45

Essentially, McAllister was killed by

• Discontent with the FDP (which, ironically, the election result does not show)
• Red-Green campaigning for abolishment of college fees (Lower Saxony is one of the two states that still impose that fee) - I know from my sister and my sister-in-law, both with children that will finish school this year, that the issue was important, if not decisive for their vote
• Discontent with federal-level CDU/ CSU family policies (introduction of the so-called 'stove premium'- grants to mothers staying at home to take care of their non-school-age children, instead of investing the money into early childhood day care)

Another issue was nuclear policy, which does not show up in the exit polls, but becomes apparent in the huge Green party gains in the North-East, where the Gorleben proposed nuclear waste dump is located.

As a matter of interest, how much are college fees in those German states that charge them?

In a way this is good for both coalitions? Nobody did terribly or got embarrassed (apart from the Left)

I sort of feel, am completely ready to be wrong, that SPD gained more from this than CDU.  At least they can claim SPD/Greens beat CDU/FDP fair and square without any help from Left going over 5% or FDP going below 5%.  Of course the gain is tiny but I feel they are net winners from this.

Some interesting results here, and I stand corrected on my overall prediction. At least I got "inflated FDP" tendentially right.

Talking about McAllister's very bad, not good, horrible day: His seemingly ingenious idea - give CDU voters a hint to vote FDP - backfired terribly. Not only did it not work; due to his shenanigans, his much celebrated and favoured CDU lost over 6% and 14 seats. Somehow I feel that his political future will lie outside of Lower Saxony.

For me, the real surprise of the evening was not the FDP's strong showing, but the all right result for the SPD. I had really expected for their vote to collapse, given the media climate right now. Instead they held their own, which I attribute to Stephan Weil, who was obviously perceived as a decent, competent candidate.

By the way: This is not over yet. One seat is a very thin majority, and red-green could have a hard time electing their PM, or hanging on for the full term.

For completeness sake, here the final official results:

CDU     36.0 (-6.5)
SPD     32.6 (+2.3)
Grüne  13.7 (+5.7)
FDP      9.9  (+1.7)

Linke    3.1 (-4.0)
Piraten    2.1 (+2.1)
Freie Wähler 1.1 (+0.6)
NPD      0,8  (-0.7)

Main voter movements as per ARD exit polls (Note: the figures don't always add up with the final result, especially not for CDU):

• CDU: Gains from non-voters / First voters (49 k) and from Linke (10 k),  losses to FDP (104 k), SPD, (37 k), Grüne (20 k) and others (6 k, Freie Wähler?)
• SPD: Losses to Grüne (49 k) and Piraten (6 k), Gains from non-voters (90 k), CDU (37 k), Linke (15 k), FDP  (20 k) and "others" (7k)
• Grüne: Loss to Piraten (7 k), gains from non-voters (59 k), SPD (49 k),  CDU (20 k), Linke (17 k), and FDP (9 k)
• FDP: Gains from CDU and from non-voters (9 k), losses to SPD, Grüne, "others" (7 k) and Piraten (5 k)
• Linke: Losses to non-voters (40 k),  Grüne, SPD, CDU, Piraten (9 k), "others" (3 k).
• Piraten: Gains from "others" ((13 k), non-voters (11 k), Linke, Grüne, SPD, FPD

Key trends:

• Strong CDU->FDP movement (loan votes)
• Some 3% movement from black-yellow to red-green; of which SPD picks up roughly 2%, and Grüne 1%
• Some 1.5% movement from SPD to Grüne
• SPD benefits most from increased participation (some 3% gain), followed by Grüne (first voters?) and CDU
  
• Linke lose almost 2% to non-voters (which threw them out of the new Landtag), but also significantly to Grüne, SPD, CDU (!) and Pirates (in this order).
  

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

To all map-makers out there: No point in doing result maps, they are available at http://vis.uell.net/nds/13/atlas.html (http://vis.uell.net/nds/13/atlas.html) (with individually scaleable color ranges).

However, I have not yet been able to find a 2008-13 swing map, and I don't think anybody has ever done a trend map on German State elections. Such maps would be great to have ...

So in addition to this 500 € / semester fee, how much does the student/parents pay for college in Germany.  I assume it is different for public and private universities.

Yes, em...

Here we're told that the current annual charges of €2,500 aren't nearly enough and that we need to increase fees to the same level as "most other countries" of about €7-9,000 p.a.

Most European countries either don't charge for university tuition in public universities, or charge nominal sums. The outstanding exception is the UK, with Ireland (AFAIK) having the next highest annual fees.

Ok.  I guess I just need to calibrate my expectations on college expenses relative to my own personal experience.  Myself and many members of my family who are in USA all went to fairly elite and expense universities.  Back when I went back in the 1990s, it was $30K a year, relatives that went a decade later was $40K a year and now it is $50K a year.  Even public universities are around 10K-15K these days.  Other relatives that are back in Taiwan Province of ROC, the annual cost of college is around $2K which most people there find quite reasonable and is still higher than  500 €/semester especially given the relative low cost of living in Taiwan Province.   This is why I am taken aback that 500 €/semester would become a campaign issue that potentially shifted the result of this election. 

The 500 €/ semester is for public colleges. Private colleges may be much, much more.

In addition, there is a semestrial contribution payable, which varies from University to University, but typically ranges around 200-300 €/ semester. This contribution usually covers the funding of things like student's councils, mensas, etc., and in most cases also public transport (i.e, each student is entitled to use inner-city public transport for free - that's why Universities in larger cities tend to have a higher semestrial contribution than those in small towns).

The key issue in a non-city state like Lower Saxony, however, is that parents need to either fund their children's housing at the study location, or transport to that place (and that means in most cases an extra car plus fuel money).

I am always impressed by how good Germany exit polling are, especially in light of horrible exit polling in USA.  I wonder how Germany exit polling firms does it ? 

Yep, I know, 500 €/ semester sounds peanuts  for most people outside Central Europe. However, you have to consider the following in this respect:

• Public colleges / universities have traditionally been free of charge (this dates back to the middle-ages), but also for quite some times been chronically under-financed. When black-yellow state governments started to introduce college fees, they promised that the extra revenue would be used to improve college education (more lecturers, etc.), and also hoped that this would increase incentives for colleges to orient more on students' demands. None of this has matierialised, however (essentially, the reform was half-hearted, 500 €/ student is nothing compared to the extra funding that can be gained from federal and EU research budgets). So, the common public perception is that college fees are just one more way for government to extract citizens' money, and the discussion is not solely about the fees themselves, but about government's spending prioriies (education vs. motorways / airports / "white elephants")
• Due to WW I & II, Germany has a unique demographic structure. The post-WW II 'baby boomers (my generation), born between 1959 and 1968, account for almost 20% of the population and some 25% of the electorate. They have induced a secondary 'baby boom' between 1985 and 2000 (with an early-1990s post-unification birth dip in East Germany) - and many of these kids are in college now, or expected to go there soon. As such, college education (and costs thereof) is not just a side issue, but quite central to the electorally dominating age group, plus most of new voters.

You have to help me here.  Why would we view the results as McAllister's idea has backfired?  It seems to me if some CDU voters voted for FDP, that did not diminish the CDU/FDP total vote.  It seems the defeat was really a function of CDU+FDP votes numbered less than SPD+Green voters by a slim margin.  It seems if McAllister did not do what he did and FDP falls below 5%, that would just mean a larger SPD+Green majority as all FDP votes would have been wasted.  He merely came up with the only strategy that gave him a chance for him to keep his position.  The fact it did not work merely means that the votes were not there for him ever to win in this election, not that the idea is a bad one.

]Some remarks on the regional profile of the parties:

• CDU: Unsurprisingly, the CDU stronghold has again been the catholic south-west of the state, where they passed 50% of the secondary (PV) vote in all but one district. Their strongest district was Vechta (57.8%), followed by Cloppenburg (57.6%).They also came out quite strong in the catholic Eichsfeld (Duderstadt district, 42.3%), and in the rural belt between the Hamburg, Bremen, Hannover and Brunswick/ Wolfsburg metro areas. They performed rather poorly in the large cities. Osnabrück South (31.2%) was their best urban district, and (unsurprisingly) Hannover-Linden (18.9%) their worst.  
• SPD: Equally unsurprising, the SPD has been most succesful in their traditional strongholds in East Frisia (north-west, Emden strongest district with 46.4%) and in the south-east. Since their candidate, Stefan Weil, used to be the mayor of Hannover, they still performed reasonably well in parts of that city, where they reached around 38%  Otherwise,  they did not reach above 34%, often not even 30%, in the main cities. Weakest, however, were they in the CDU-dominated catholic areas (Cloppenburg 16.8%)
• Grüne: They took the cities by storm, gaining more than 25% in Göttingen, Lüneburg, Oldenburg Mitte-Süd and Hannover-Mitte. They furthermore came out strong in the North-west (Gorleben nuclear waste dump),  the Hamburg and Bremen peripheries, and parts of the Hannover, Brunswick, Oldenburg and Göttingen peripheries. Their good result(13.8%) in the SPD stronghold of Emden comes as a surprise (or not, considering that Emden has become one of the largest windpower manufacturing sites in Germany). Their weakest regions continue to be the catholic CDU strongholds, but even in their worst district (Cloppenburg, 7.1 %), they managed to double their vote compared to 2008.
• [FDP: No clear regional pattern. Essentially, they tend to be stronger where the CDU is also stronger, with the best results in the predominantly protestant strip between Bremen and the Catholic south-west (Diepholz 14.5%, Oldenburg-Land 14.1%), and in rural protestant regions (e.g. Holzminden 14%). They fared worst in traditional blue-collar districts (steel, automotive) in the East (Salzgitter 5.7%)
• Linke: Interesting mix: Strong in green strongholds (Hannover-Linden 6,8%, Elbe/Gorleben 5.9%)), but also doing comparatively well in traditional blue-collar SPD strongholds such as East Frisia, Wilhelmshaven and Salzgitter. In CDU-dominated areas, they did not ger a feet on the ground. Their worst district was Lingen (1.6%)

Tuition fees are certainly the main reason I would have voted SPD yesterday.

So, Red-Green won by one ?

Nice.

And no recount. Nobody going to court. Nobody claiming irregularities...

I love European elections sometimes. ;)

Regarding Niedersachsen:

According to wahlrecht.de

(Translation: If the SPD loses 1399 votes to the FDP, the red-green majority would be gone. A lot, but theoretically possible between now and the final result.)

The Red-Green majority is actually a result of the legal oddity remarked on earlier.

135 seats using D'Hondt and a 5% threshold (as the state does): CDU 53, SPD 48, Greens 20, FDP 14
CDU won  54 direct seats; so 137 seats according to the law that the number of Ausgleich should (not must, there's an excemption but it's not applicable here) be equal to the number of Überhang... the 136th seat would have gone to the CDU anyways while the 137th seat goes to the SPD. And the 138th seat would be the FDP's, hence Franzl's post (though it's closer between 136 and 137).
If parliament were increased only to the minimum number necessary to keep things proportional, we'd have seen a tie. Of course there are also states with an odd "normal" number that add an extra seat if Überhang & Ausgleich lead to an even number, which in this case would have the same result as the rule Lower Saxony uses.

Now imagine if red-green hadn't also beat black-yellow by 12000 votes.

---

And it gets worse; Ste-Lague or Hare-Niemeyer (they exceedingly rarely disagree if you have a threshold that makes single-member parties impossible, and they don't do here) despite usually being more exactly proportional would have produced a false winner here - the seat distribution for 135 seats would be identical, but the 136th seat goes to the FDP, the 137th to the CDU, and it isn't the SPD's turn again til the 138th.
That's how close it was.

---

And while I'm at it, D'Hondt, no threshold, minimum necessary Ausgleich CDU 54, SPD 48, Greens 20, FDP 14 (obviously), Left 4, Pirates 3, FW 1, NPD 1. SPD-Greens-Left-Pirates (the two small groups presumably lending support rather than sitting in the government) or CDU-SPD.

Yes, but tell that to Christian Democratic MdLs out of a seat as a result.

The PM dropping hints himself may have been entirely unnecessary; if the FDP had gotten 5.2% and the CDU 40.7% without that (just on the strength of enough people figuring it out on their own; the FDP's "own" base support is 1 to 2% of the electorate), there wouldn't be any headlines about CDU losses now, it would all be (more or less rightly) considered the FDP's fault.

Yes, if education was the most important issue for voters and over 70% are against tuition fees, it's no wonder that the red-green victory could take place. One thing to remember, especially when following this from some country with high study fees is that in Germany or in its neighbors there's no tradition of study fees for public universities - you only pay the semester contribution (often to the student council) which entitles you to student discounts and free local public transport. About 10 years ago the black-yellow coalitions started introducing the 500€ semester fees, and at the high point in 2007-08 there were fees in all western states except Schleswig-Holstein and Rheinland-Pfalz (don't really know about Bremen though). But they were such a controversial issue that with red-green victories the fees have since been discontinued everywhere expect Bavaria and, until this election, Lower Saxony.


Close enough, although of course relatively unlikely.

Regarding the above situation with SPD getting the Ausgleichsmandat in d'Hondt, but FDP getting it in Sainte-Laguë or in Hare-Niemeyer, thus leading to a black-yellow majority again, the wahlrecht.de history says that Lower Saxony used to have d'Hondt until they changed it to Hare-Niemeyer after 1974 when FDP was in coalition with CDU and demanded it. But then before the 1986 elections CDU was governing alone and changed the method back to d'Hondt. So this loss was, in a way, the Union's own making.

The corest core group of the FDP board is currently deliberating behind closed doors while the remainder of the board are waiting to be let in for the session that was supposed to have begun three-quarters of an hour ago.
The rumour is that Rösler has offered to resign... but possibly not in good faith. There's definitely something fishy going on.

Yes, and education is one of the relatively few relevant things that states are exclusively entitled to legislate on, without any influence from the federal government. So it makes sense that education policy would be a deciding issue in a state election.

Maybe Rösler knows that his times as party chairman are over, but he tries to take Brüderle down with him (revenge!) and install one of his allies as his successor instead?

We'll know more sometime later today.

I love the tax data!

Rösler to remain party chair, Brüderle to be "top candidate" for federal election.

Boring. I want to see some blood spilled.

It is (partly) for this reason that I'm currently in the Netherlands fyi to go OT for a brief moment.

They're not exactly cheap either, are they? Over 1000€ a semester, I believe?

Yup. That's why we're flooded with Dutch students.

Explanations for the FDP bursting from the grave?

As outsiders, we tend to perceive "black-yellow" as one homogenous voting bloc. The 14 CDU MPs who lost their jobs yesterday would beg to differ. The same is true for Merkel and the national CDU, who get a lot of negative media attention right now, thanks to McAllister's poor results. The best sign that his strategy was a failure is the fact that hordes of CDU/CSU politicians are condemning it right now.

Moreover, and this is my main point, McAllister's strategy of secretly endorsing the FDP was not even necessary. FDP core support is at 3%, i.e. they'll get that, no matter what. Now, given the polls right before the election, it was always clear there would be enough CDU voters to put them over the threshold. McAllisters stealthy FDP campaign amplified this effect to exaggerated levels. Most people on this board - even the ones not familiar with Lower Saxony politics - were able to predict this. McAllister, an experienced career politician, was not. Instead, he shot himself in the foot. He might have lost anyway, but at least he could have blamed it on the FDP.  

Compared with the UK and Ireland, yeah it is cheap.

For those too lazy to read through everything that was written here yesterday ..

Understood, thanks a lot for making this clear for me.  Of course from a CDU point of view, to lower its vote to help the FDP only to lose the election anyway is a significant setback from both ends.  But I always figured that the SPD/Greens getting a constructive majority in Bundesrat would be such a setback to the government that it should pull out every trick in the bag to stop it.

There's very not that much that can be done with it. Some procedural stuff. Also, SPD/Greens don't have that with Lower Saxony, SPD/Greens/Left do. (SPD/Greens/Left/SSW, actually.)
The only really relevant question is whether CDU/CSU/FDP have a majority of their own there, and that ship sailed a long time ago. (Another thing that is not entirely irrelevant is that there is still a CDU/CSU/FDP/SPD majority... though it's now trimmed down to a single state. And a CDU/CSU/FDP/SPD two-thirds majority, necessary for constitutional changes, is now also further away than ever.)

My sincere condolences...

Will McAllister stay on for a rematch or not? Considering he was a sure goner until quite recently... I'd say he should at least be allowed to consider the idea.

With this election, SPD will be in every Lander government except for Bavaria, Hesse, and Saxony.  Unless CSU falls apart I do not see SPD being in government there after elections this year.  Hesse which will have elections late 2013 or early 2014 should be on route to a SPD/Green majority but really should be a function of what takes place in federal elections in Sept 2013.  As for Saxony, which is later in 2014, it comes down to if FDP can cross 5%.  If it cannot then SPD will be in government as well as a part of CDU/SPD grand coalition.  So I can see a situation a year and half  from now where SPD will be in every Lander government execpt Bavaria.  Quite an accomplishment. 

BTW, it seems very likely that Hessen will vote on the same day as the federal election at this point.

Hopefully Austria won't vote on the same day as Germany ... :P

Bad for my reporting ...

Quite an accomplishment indeed of having absolutely no political values, beliefs, agenda or anything... It's deeply pathetic if you ask me.

O.k., as nobody else has volunteered, I have prepared an evaluation of our Lower Saxony predictions. On the methodology - whenever a prediction included a range (e.g. 27-30%), I took the arithmetic mean, and whenever figures did not sum up to 100%, I balanced it by adjusting the share of "others".

First, let's compare our common wisdom with actual results (Prediction mean - actual -  error):

CDU      40.2     36.0    +4.2
SPD       29.4     32.6    -3.2
Grüne   14.5      13.7    +0.8
FDP        6.2      9.9      -3.2
Linke      4.4      3.1      +1.3
Piraten   2.7      2.1      +0.6
others    2.6      2.6      at least  this one we got collectively right ...

Now the ranking (total absolute error, ascending)

1. Franknburger (8.0)
2. palandio (12.0)
3. mubar (12.2)
4. Senator Franzl (14.2)
5. Tender Branson (14.6)
6. ERvND (15.2)
7. a Person (15.5)
8. Julio Madrid (16.6)
9. Esecutore de Midas (19.2)

Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Franknburger... :)

Thanks. However, it was mostly luck. As I underestimated the strength of the black-yellow block,, while ing off like everybody else on the FDP share, I happened to almost nail the CDU percentage.  A prediction to be really proud of looks different ....

So razor-thin upset victories happen for the left as well once in a while! :D

Nice. A weak performance for me, but in this case, I'm not really upset about it. ;)



LOL. You're talking about Merkel now, right?

1973 :(

Fixed there for ya.

But at least I just about nailed the Green share! :D

Also, taking all our predictions and the actual result, the actual result is the biggest outlier. Which, alas, tends to happen with predictions unless based on fairly strong evidence.

Consequences of the Lower Saxony elections so far:

• CDU: McAllister steps down as head of the Lower Saxony CDU, asks for two weeks of time until announcing his future plans. Rumours are that, even though he lost the election, he remains '"Mommy's darling", and Merkel is looking for a high-level post in Berlin for him. CDU leadership says Lower Saxony results are local and not signalling federal trends. 
• CSU: Seehofer announces that the CSU will not encourage FDP 'loan votes' in the Bavarian election upcoming this autumn.
• SPD: Party leader Gabriel sees the Lower Saxony success as blue-print for the upcoming federal elections. Steeinbrück attends the press-conference together with eight other senior party leaders, but does not speak. [My local newspaper comments that Steinbrück is now being "framed" by the party leadership].
• Grüne: Bavarian Grüne leader Janecek has come out with a policy paper suggesting his party should focus more on issues (energy policy, community financing) than on party blocks (red-green vs. black-yellow). Federal party leader Özdemir (himself a 'realo' as Janecek) has immediately reminded Janecek to focus his efforts on the upcoming elections in Bavaria. The 'realos' in the party leadership obviously don't want to discuss federal-level coalition options now, with the new red-green Lower Saxony government yet to be formed. Moreover, a leaked survey for the Green party shows 72% of Grüne voters prefering red-green, and only 10% black-green. 55% of Grüne leaners would not vote for the party if it committed to a coalition with the CDU.
• FDP: After quite some drama and inner-circle closed-door meetings, the FDP has announced that Rainer Brüderle will be their top candidate for the federal elections, but Rösler remains party leader. Regicide averted or just postponed?
• Linke: The party has presented an eight-person leadership team that 'frames' notorious 'solo entertainer' Gregor Gysi, and orthodox-communist Sahra Wagenknecht, whose last-minute engagement in Lower Saxony had backfired. They furthermore announced readiness to support red-green on the Budesrat level (red-red-governed Brandenburg holds the critical votes)

New Forsa poll (23.01.2013), Federal election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

CDU slightly short of absolute majority (42-45).
Red-Green far away from majority (37-50).

Looking at Lower Saxony example we can be quite sure about FDP overcoming the threshold with some loan from CDU voters.

Except that CDU supporters know now that a tactical vote for the FDP may actually hurt their own party rather than doing any good...

If the poll numbers were to stay the same (and that is, of course, a big if), and a CDU absolute majority were possible...I think they could convince their voters to forget about the FDP and make their own party as strong as possible.

But making a coalition possible. After all at federal level there is need of a 2% tactical vote for FDP, not more, not 7% like in Lowe Saxony

In fact, the CDU didn't lose the Lower Saxony elections because of too many "loan votes" for the FDP. On the contrary, it's possible to claim that the party lost because of too few. If roughly 2000 additional CDU supporters had voted tactically for the FDP, the black-yellow coalition would have a majority of seats now.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2013/landtagswahl-niedersachsen-2013.html#mehrheit

Allensbach, 23.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 28%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%

Black-yellow government with no majority (44-49).
Red-green with no majority (42-46).

Yes, but if, instead of +2.000 (1.827, to be precise) FDP 'loan votes', it would have been 3.260 more loan votes, CDU would have lost their extra seat from FPTP compensation to SPD. In that case, they would still have been allowed to retain the "overhanging" extra FPTP seat, resulting in a tie. If it had even been 7.390 FDP loan votes more, CDU would have lost a regular seat, meaning FPTP compensation goes up from 2 to 4 extra seats. The compensation seats would be allocatesd 2 CDU, 1 SPD, 1 Grüne, and we are back at the current 1 seat red-green majority (with FDP and Grüne each having one seat more than according to the actual distribution).

Too complicated?  I guess the Lower Saxony constutional court could think so as well, if asked by anybody. However, CDU and FDP may hve problems to put their own electoral legislation before court, while SPD and Grüne don't have any reason to do so at the moment.

There is no case for going to court. A simple "keep things proportional and the number of seats uneven" rule would have had the same result. Which is also not a "false winner" result.

Also, trying to argue you didn't really lose tends to look bad much quicker when you're the incumbent.

State? Do you mean "Stadt"? That means city.

At least British "rule" over Hanover was ended with this election once again. :P

Infratest dimap, 24.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 6%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Given the last state election results, it should be clear by now that the FDP will easily get 5% of the vote - and more. Instead of CDU 42, FDP 4, I'd rather predict CDU 38, FDP 8.

I wonder why the pollster don't adjust their data accordingly.

Because we are still 9 months away from an election and polls right now are not about doing election eve forecasts of what the actual results will be - at this stage they are measurements of how people say they will vote if an election were held today. Its not up to a polling company to arbitrarily decide that based on what happened in Lower Saxony - from now on in every poll we should subtract 4 points from the CDU and give it to the FDP.

They are actually doing it, but don't speak about it. The exception is Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (should provide an update tomorrow), which publishes raw data alongside their projection. Last time, two weeks ago,  Forschungsgruppe Wahlen had switched 2% from CDU to FDP when turning the raw data into their projection.

So, my guess is that all pollsters still see generic FDP support at around 2%, but have already applied 2% 'loan vote adjustment' before publishing results. Feel free to make further adjustments, based on the Lower Saxony experience, but do so on your own risk 8)

It might be controversial, but it's standard practice for (German) pollsters to "adjust" their data according to secret formulas. So, what you get from German polling companies (regardless of the time of the poll), will always be that "weighted" numbers, not what people actually said.

Under this premise, I still wonder why they haven't adjusted their formulas yet. It's not about Lower Saxony alone, but about the last four state elections: In each case, the FDP was predicted to get less than 5% of the vote, and ended up with more than 8%. I see a clear pattern here (loan votes from CDU supporters), and I think it's time to include this observation into the weighted polls.    

As German pollsters tend to make all kinds of 'loan vote'-related adjustments, I sometimes find it more informative to look at trends compared to their previous 'poll'  than at actual numbers. In this respect we have for infratest dimap compared to their last week's result:

CDU / FDP / others: unchanged
SPD +1
Grüne +1
Linke -1
Piraten -1

Looks like the "Steinbrück crash" is over, and Linke/ Piraten voters move towards red-green.

Probably a silly question, but I'm assuming that Die Linke has some safe direct seats in the former GDR, so do they really need 5%?

Two of them, so yeah.

They fell below the threshold and won only 2 FPTP seats (both in East Berlin, I believe) in 2002, so it does matter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_2002

They actually got 16 FPTP seats in 2009 (5 in Sachsen-Anhalt, 4 in Berlin, 4 in Brandeburg, 2 in Thüringen, 1 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern).
Three of them (all in East-Berlin) are pretty safe (more than 20% margin in 2009), another one - Märkisch Oderland in Brandenburg - seems reasonably safe (13.4$ margin in 2004). The other twelve were pretty tight (less than 5% margin).
()

Could this be a problem for CDU in FPTP seats?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/bild-878468-449405.html

Why is the CDU so strong in Sachsen relative to the rest of the former GDR?

Uncovering of the National Socialist Underground (NSU) terror cell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Underground) in late 2011 has shocked the population and, among others, lead to significant decreases of the NPD vote in the recent State elections, which however, were all in the western part.

NPD strongholds in the East tend to be rural, depressed areas characterised by high uneployment and strong outmigration, especially of young females. Eastern Mecklenburg-Pomerania, the most prominent area in the Spegel map, has the highest unemployment rate in all Germany. However, the mapping technique overstates the actual problem, as most NPD-heavy communities are rather small. The village of Koblentz, e.g. where they reached 33%, has 227 inhabitants. On  electoral district level, they reached 10-15% in the rural eastern part of the state, but less than 5% in the area's larger cities of Greifswald and Neubrandenburg.

Even though the political micro-climate in these rural eastern regions is quite different from the West, the NSU shock should at least contain, probably even substantially depress the NPD vote in the federal election. In any case, the NPD is far from winning any FPTP seat. The question is what former NPD voters turning away from the party due to the NSU shock will do: If they stay at home (most likely), or vote for small parties, not much will change. If they, however, should switch to the Linke (rather unlikely, but not completely unthinkable in former East Germany), the CDU might lose Neubrandenburg, the most southern of the Mecjkenburg districts (see map in my previous post), which they only carried by less than 300 votes in 2009. The same may happen in Schwerin-Ludwigslust in the south-west of the state, which was won by the CDU by less than 1000 votes. However, it is also questionable whether the Linke will be able to repeat there strong 2009 showing.

In Saxony, CDU FPTP are pretty safe, especially in areas where the NPD is strong. If at all, the CDU is in danger of losing Leipzig, should Grüne voters decide to support the SPD candidate.

Thuringia is anyway quite a battlefield, with CDU, SPD and Linke runing neck-by-neck in several districts. In comparatively NPD-heavy Sonneberg-Saalfeld (the State's southernmost CDU FPTP district), the CDU in 2009 won by less than 1.000 votes against Linke. In the center of the state, however, the issue will be more whether the greens continue their upward trend in cities like Jena, Erfurt and Weimar and, by-vote-splitting, help the SPD to gain FPTP seats, than the existing, but compartively small rural NPD lean.    

Hmm, I didn't know the Greens won a FPTP seat. Is there any chance they'll take more than 1 this time? Maybe another in Berlin or Baden-Wurrtemburg?

Unlike in the West, the catholic-protestant divide hardly plays a role in the East, With the exeption of a few catholic enclaves, most notably the Eichsfeld in North-Western Thuringia, the East is culturally protestand and, after 40 years of communist rule, strongly secularised. Party allegiances were mainly formed in the 1990s according to experience with State-level governments.

When, after unification, the CDU exported party veterans to the East to become State PMs, Saxony  happened to receive the most capable, and most liberal of them, Kurt Biedenkopf, who ruled the State from 1990 to 2002. Being the heartland of the former GDR's automotive industry, the state furthermore attracted substantial investment and tended to outperform the rest of former East Germany.  Political stability and relative economic prosperity contained the Linke vote, and have helped the CDU to gain broad-based support.

In a similar way, Manfred Stolpe, former head of the Lutheran Church in the GDR and PM of Brandenburg form 1990 to 2002, turned that state into the SPD's stronhold in the East.

In the other States, governments were less stable, so they are much more swingy. 2009 with its disastrous SPD result is actually a bit misleading, the 2005 map below gives a better picture of regional party allegiances.

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Berlin Kreuzberg-Prenzlauer Berg has traditionally been the by far strongest Grüne district (27.4% of PV votes in 2009). The next stongest districts in 2009 were:

Freiburg 22.8%
Berlin-Charlottenburg 22.1%
Berlin-Mitte 22.0%
Stuttgart I  22.0%
Berlin-Tempelhof 21.6%
Berlin-Pankow 19.8%
Köln II 19.8%
München-Mitte 19.4%

Except for Köln II, in all of the aforementionned the Grüne vote was higher than the SPD vote. If the SPD encouraged ticket-splitting of their voters, Freiburg and some more Berlin districts might be possible. Berlin-Mitte, where Grüne were the strongest party in 2009, and Berlin-Pankow, where Linke and CDU split up the remaining vote (currently held by Linke) look most promising. Berlin-Tempelhof might be in reach with substantial SPD ticket-splitting.

Berlin-Charlottenburg, Stuttgart I and München-Mitte, however will need a favourable federal trend for the combined green-red vote to overcome black-yellow.

Could also depend on the candidates. For instance, Green federal chairman Cem Özdemir runs in Stuttgart I... while Öczan Mutlu, a member of the Berlin state parliament aiming to succeed the retiring Green Bundestag MP for the district, is the party's candidate in Berlin-Mitte.

Given the fact that the Greens just won the mayorship in Stuttgart and Özdemir is a national public figure, he has pretty good chances at winning the district IMO.

Could perhaps be a problem for the Left, actually.

After all, both the NPD and the Left compete for the anti-establishment/anti-mainstream protest vote in the eastern states.

Your explanation is comprehensible. The CDU's strenght - and, even more so, the SPD's weakness - in Saxony is still remarkable.

Looking at the history of Saxony, the state has always been the stronghold of Socialist, Social Democratic and, later on, Communist parties. In the 19th century, there were times when almost half of the SPD's total FPTP seats were won in Saxony. After 1918, the state was a stronghold of the Communist party, while the SPD was still very powerful there. This trend seemed to continue after 1949, when most members of the Communist political elite were Saxons.

So, in 1990 almost everyone was convinced the SPD would continue to dominate a democratic Saxony. This didn't happen, however. You named some of the reasons, and of course, political changes and major shifts happen. Nevertheless, I'm baffled by the extent of this shift. In Saxony, the SPD is not only weak, but close to extinction. They hardly hang on to 10% of the vote, making it their worst state by far, even worse than Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. In regions like the Erzgebirge, where the SPD enjoyed 66%+ majorities pre 1933, they have completely vanished today. Of course the Linke (originally PDS) took some of this vote, but in general, this region is overwhelmingly Conservative and CDU-dominated by now. Still a bit of a mystery to me.  

This topic comes up here on a fairly regular basis; I'll dig out some old posts later (or someone else will or something). But basically the issue is that pre-1933 SPD strength in Saxony was based on the Party subculture (which was deeply embedded - to an almost remarkable extent - in some parts of Saxony; Leipzig and surrounds especially, though the pin up for it would be Freital at the other end of the state), something that was completely eliminated by over five decades of dictatorship. And it's also worth noting that while the SPD held up better in parts of Saxony than just about anywhere else in Germany during the early 30s, in some other parts (for which read: the Erzgebirge and the Vogtland) they completely collapsed.

Bavaria to hold regional German vote September 15

Voters in Germany's southern state of Bavaria will go to the polls on September 15, officials said Friday, meaning the ballot will be one week before the expected date for general elections.

Coalition partners in the southern region's government agreed the date because they wanted their ballot to be held independently from the national vote, two leading state deputies said.

The exact date for federal elections, which will see Chancellor Angela Merkel fight for a third four-year term, is still uncertain but coalition lawmakers are expected to discuss it next week.

At the end of November, a government source told AFP that the majority of the country's 16 states had agreed on September 22 for the federal vote.

The opposition Social Democrats want the elections at federal level as well as in Bavaria and another regional vote in western Hesse state to all take place on the same day.

http://www.expatica.com/de/news/german-news/bavaria-to-hold-regional-german-vote-september-15_256783.html

Let's hope our election is on the 29th then ...

I would not like it if it falls on the same date as Germany or Bavaria.

You have as well to consider socio-economic changes. Mining (and with it strong labour unions) used to be the main pre-WW II occupation in much of the Erzgebirge. After unification, with closing-down uranium mining and processing, it has almost completely disappeared. Also, while the (traditionally strongly unionised) automotive industry is still relevant in Saxony, it is far smaller (leaner) nowadays than it used to be before WW II.

Furthermore, as across most of the East, medium scale cities are still suffering heavy population losses The population of Görlitz. e.g., which was close to 100,000 before WW II, has decreased to 78,000 in 1989 and to less than 55,000 now. Even Chemnits, Saxony's third largest city, has gone down from 347,000 inhabitants in 1939 and 310,000 inhabitants iin 1988 to some 243,000 inhabitants today (though it is now starting to slightly gain population again). Thus, most districts are much more rural / smalltown nowadays than they used to be before the war.

The SPD still has reasoable potential in the large cities - unless, of course, it has, as member of a grand coalition, driven protest voters en masse to the Linke, as happened in 2009. For reference, here are the combined red-red and black-yellow shares for the large cities (PV, 2009 Federal):

Leipzig I:  Red-red 43.5, Black-yellow 42.8, Green 8.9
Keipzig II: Red-red 44.8, Blaxk-yellow 38, Green 14.7
Chemnitz: Red-red 45.7, Black-yellow 42.2, Green 7.1
Dresdem I: Red-red 37.7, Black-yellow 47.5, Green 10.9

Last but not least, while in most other States in the East, the CDU on a local level to a good extent maintained continuity with the old GDR CDU (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_(East_Germany)), Kurt Biedenkopf in Saxony strongly encouraged CDU modernisation and integration of the GDR's protest movement, and managed to have some high-ranking members of Bündnis 90 / Die Grüne joining the CDU. This has lead to Saxony's CDU being much more liberal and "green" than most other state parties. Consequently, Grüne support has until recently remained  below levels that could be expected in such an urbanised state, especially considering that Saxony has been the 'homeland' of  East Germany's peaceful revolution. This, in turn, has deprived the SPD of a potential local-level coalition partner and supplier of split votes for FPTP seats.

New Poll, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 25.01.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Jan 11, 2013):

CDU       45 (-4)
SPD       31 (+4)
Grüne     13 ()
FDP        2 ()
Linke      5 (+1)
Piraten    2 ()
others     2 (-1)

Steinbück-gaffe SPD-dip / CDU bounce ebbs away, FDP core support stays at 2%.


And their projection (the edited version)

CDU       41 (-1)
SPD       29 (+1)
Grüne     13 ()
FDP        4 ()
Linke      6 ()
Piraten   3 ()
others    4 ()

So their projection is essentially shifting 2% CDU 'loan votes' to FDP. 1% from SPD to Linke, 2% from CDU to "others" (NPD, Freie Wähler), and 1% from SPD to Piraten (dont ask me why!)

Given the polling, it hardly looks like the Left is in any position to retain its FPTP seats outside of East Berlin anyway, no?

Further results from the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll:

Which majority do you expect after the next federal election ?
Black-yellow     39
Red-green        33
None of these   28

Should CDU/ CSU support the FDP (CDU/CSU leaners only) ?
Xes                  22
No                   41
Don't care        34

Quick calculation: 45% CDU voters * 22% "support FDP" * 35% that will actually 'loan' their vote (Lower Saxony level) = 3.5% FDP loan votes (which would be sufficient to lift them above 5%).

The new leadership duo Rösler / Brüderly will affect the FDP:
Positively      19
Negatively    17
No impact     53

Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne    29 (+8)
CDU / SPD    22  (-6)
CDU/FPD      17  (+6)

17% believe the Pirates will make it into the next Bundestag
28% think the Linke still has a function in the West
7% of respondents will definitely not vote (down from 11% two weeks ago and 13% in December!) 12% are unsure (-1).

http://www.zdf.de/Politbarometer/Sonntagsfrage-FDP-nicht-im-Bundestag-26315690.html (http://www.zdf.de/Politbarometer/Sonntagsfrage-FDP-nicht-im-Bundestag-26315690.html)

I would not exclude Linke FPTP seats for Eastern Brandenburg, where CDU & FDP are traditionally weak, and Linke is mainly competing with SPD for FPTP. Especially if pre-election polls suggest that black-yellow could gain a majority should Linke fail to make it into the Bundestag,, SPD / Grüne / Piraten voters might be inclined to support the Linke candidate for tactical reasons. Some CDU, but especially FDP voters OTOH may vote SPD FPTP to prevent this.

Looking into the districts in question, I also came across some interesting vote-splitting patterns. Essentially, the vote was straight-ticket for all parties, with the following exceptions (districts from north to south):

• Uckermark: Some 1.5% CDU/FDP ticket-spltting, Pirates (2% PV) split their FPTP vote equally on SPD and Linke
• Märkisch Oderland: 2% CDU/FPD, 2% SPD/FPD, 1% Linke/Grüne, Pirates (2.7% PV) overwhelmingly Linke for FPTP
• Frankfurt / Oder: SPD/FPD  1.4%, Pirates (2.5 % PV) overwhelmingly Linke for FPTP
• Cottbus; SPD/CDU 0.3%, SPD/FPD 0.3%, SPD/Pirates 2.3%, Linke/Grüne 0.3%, Linke/Pirates 0.6%

Interestingly, NPD and DVU PV voters have almost unanimously voted for the NPD candidate. Looks like a pretty hardcore followership (slightly below 4% in each of the districts) which will hardly swing elsewhere, but at best stay home the next time.
On this observation, I also checked Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - here the NPD FPTP vote even tended to slightly surpass their PV vote, while the opposite holds true for CDU.

Another insteresting district is Altmark (northwestern Sachsen-Anhalt, close to the Gorleben proposed nuclear waste dump). Here it is essentially CDU vs. Linke. As Grüne and Linke have traditionally united on anti-nuclear protest in adjacent Lower Saxony, the small but growing Grüne followership may decide to support the Linke candidate. 2009 split votes: CDU/FPD 1%, CDU/DVU 0.2%, SPD/FPD 2%, SPD/Pirates 1%, SPD/Grüne 0.5%, Linke/Grüne 1%.

The mayoral election of Leipzig, Germany's 11th largest town with nowadays a tendency of growth for years, will be held the 27th of January, which is actually tomorrow. A possible 2nd round - if no candidate reaches an outright majority would be held on 17th of February.

In the second round all candidates could compete again (as in Baden-Württemberg) - most people don't know that and think it's a runoff of the first two. Who gets the most votes, wins, even if it ist not a majority of 50 percent.

Mayors in Saxony are elected for seven-year-terms, which is an awful long period IMO. So the last election was in 2006, when former Mayor Wolfgang Tiefensee (SPD), who was reelected with 2005 in a landslide, went to Berlin to become Federal Minister/ Secretary of Transportation.

Burkhard Jung, former head of the local social and youth authority (I don't know how to translate "Dezernent für Jugend und Soziales" to English properly), won in the second round with 41.6 percent. Turnout was at 31.9 percent.

All mayors since 1990 have been members of the SPD. They allways polled between 40 and 50 percent in the first round - except for Tiefensee 2005 who 67 percent.
There are six candidates

Burkhard Jung (SPD, Incumbent)
Horst Wawrzinsky (CDU, until recently police president of Leipzig)
Barbara Höll (Linke, Member of the Bundestag, also a candidate in the election of 2005)
Felix Ekhardt (Grüne, scientist - environment and sustainability stuff)
René Hobusch (FDP, lawyer)
Dirk Feitertag (supported by the Pirates, lawyer with some social activism)

Biggest campaign seems how to deal with the high demand for day care centers and schools (as many young people migrate to Leipzig and found there families here there has been a continuing Baby boom for years after in the 90s many day care centers and schools were closed down.

There were also some scandals relating the city beaurocracy - e. g. they have been illegally selling houses with unknown owners too cheap which is near dispossession for years - well it's hard to put in only one sentence.
The CEO the local waterworks illegaly burned several hundred millions of Euros in high risk financial products. But Jung tried (and until know succeeded) not to get connected with this. Also there was a large media camapign in the only local newspaper that the local authorities were too mild agains drug abusers in Leipzig an that there was to much crime related to this.


Jung ist trying his first term as a full success, saying that the jobless rate is split by half and this would be his accomplishment - and many investors (logistics, automotive industry, biotechnologies) and tourists are coming to Leipzig. Well, we all know that stuff when there is no real political platform to run on.

When the CDU nominated Horst all feared a hard law and order camaign - related to the drugs and securitiy thing. There were some strange police actions in the last months like big raids in public parks (so called "Komplexkontrollen") and an police assault at a kindergarden in Connewitz claiming to go after drug criminals - but actially as a campaigner there were no such undertones. So actually he wants to do all what Jung does, but better.

Barbara Höll mainly is a federal politician and not that much of a local figure as though she ist from Leipzig. Her platform has more to do with federal than will local policies. She got around 15 per cent in 2005 and she will propably will get there again.

Felix Ekardt is an interesting figure as a person but mainly unknown. The Greens
made some self-ironic campaign posters and flyers that actually seemed to irritate some people. Platform is typically Green: transparency, environmental stuff, more money for children (new day care centers and schools etc.)).

Hobusch is at typicial FDP guy.

Feiertag ist a lawyer for social law who has a social justice, building of day care centers, transparency and ticket-free transportation platform.


Voting ethusiasm seems to be very low - which is a result of the so called "Leipziger Modell" to let participate the big parties proportionally in the local government and having now coalitions and making the decision making and responsibilities intransparent - but also of the candidates all percieved as weak contenders.

So Jung, though many people don't like him as he stand for nothing, will probably win. One local newspaper poll from 2nd of January - so actually shortly after Christmas and befor the main campaign - had him at 55% with Horst at 21, Höll at 12, Ekardt and Feiertag at 4 and Hobusch at zero.

That's a lot of interesting information. Thank you.

Emnid, 27.01.2013, Federal Election:



CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 13%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

Black short of a majority (41-47).
Red-green short of a majority (40-48).

The state government here has had a look at the federal polls and the state polls and now agrees with the opposition.

Damn, I kind of liked our mid-winter campaigs. :D

Polls in Leipzig have closed some minutes ago. Up-to-date results can be found at the world wide web: (I'm not allowed to post links).

leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/obm/2013/wahlergebnis-24701.aspx

Turnout is higher then in 2006 (around 41 per cent).

www.leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/obm/2013/wahlergebnis-24701.aspx
 (http://www.leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/obm/2013/wahlergebnis-24701.aspx)

SPD 40.2 CDU 25.9 Die Linke 15.3 Grüne 9.8 Feiertag 6.9 FDP 1.8.

At least the FDP managed to exceed expectations.

Means a second round of voting in two weeks. Unless they changed the law, all the past candidates can stand again if they want to, but a majority won't be required then.

Actually the 2nd round is in three weeks (seems to have to do with the February vacations). This could get quite interesting if there was some "All but Horst and Jung"-Movement at the left. Greens, Linke and semi-pirate Feiertag together got 32 per cent.

Greens and Linke both have party meetings on Tuesday how to deal with this.

And we now know that the Leipziger Volkszeitung did a junk poll.

FDP guy Hobusch claimed a "quite good" result and at the same time told, SPD result was a "total desaster" (Jung gut more than twenty times the votes of Hobusch).

What kind of incentive could the SPD offer die Linke or the Greens, or even Pirate-ish guy, to withdraw from second round and endorse them instead ? Since I recall you telling the city council was in any case made up of members of every party in proportion of what they got ?

Mabe some policy-driven projects like "a stronger effort at building day care centers and schools" with an accurate plan with numbers or doing something at the culture budget or having more transparency or whatever. But this all would be officialy unofficial as people don't like such deals. Höll (Linke) said today that she wants to participate in the second term. Feiertag ist too much anti-establishment to deal with Jung. I really don't know what the Greens will do (missed their election party because of a cold).

The empire strikes back (sort of)

As the Steinbrück-gaffe hype is ebbing away, the next non-story makes its round in German media and on the internet. Rainer Brüderle, freshly appointed FDP top-candate, is being accused of sexist comments to a female journalist (http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/01/25/germany-politics-sexism-idINDEE90O0CA20130125).

The event happened already one year ago, but has only been published by the STERN magazine last week. Convenienrly, Sunday evening politics talk show host Günther Jauch (who happens to also moderate "STERN TV on Wednesday evenings) made it an issue in yesterday's show.

From what I have read, a femalle journalst joined Brüderle at a hotel bar for informal background talks on the evening of a FDP convention. As Brüderle enjoyed  several glasses of wine, he started to comment on the journalist's cleavage, asked for dances, gave hand-kisses, etc., until a member of his staff had to call him to bed. The event itself is pretty banal, but it is being used to characterise Brüderle as old-fashioned male politician who disregards women in their intellectual and professional capabilites. Brüderle has so far declined to comment, but almost everybody else, including several of his party memebrs, had something to say ...

In a follow-up, female members of the Pirates have also been discussing perceived sexist attitudes of their male co-members (over 30.000 twitter feeds so far!).

INSA poll for Bild

CDU/CSU          40
FDP                    5
SPD                  28
Greens             15

Still finding out what Left got, but FDP is past 5.  It is unlikely that CDU/CSU/FDP will end up with majority.

Germany (and likely Hesse) to officially vote on Sept. 22:


http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahltermin-bundestagswahl-findet-am-22-september-statt-a-880338.html

...

So, basically we now have:

15.09. - Bavaria
22.09. - Germany and Hesse (?)
29.09. - Austria (?)

I have already for some time been thinking about the "51st state"comment -but now you relally deserve it 8)

You mean Austria as the 51st ?

;)

Not really, since there are only 16 German states ...

And the 17th is already the "Balearic Islands".

So, we would be the 18th German state.

Or the 19th (after Switzerland) ?

Keep the talk about Austria in your thread..  We've got serious stuff to discuss in this one.

Nicht ernst nehmen... ;)

Forsa, 30.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Black short of a majority (40-48).
Red-Green short of a majority (40-48).

GMS (CDU pollster), Federal elections, 20.01.2013, raw data (no projection):

CDU        42,9
SPD        26.3
Grüne     14.7
FDP          4.9
Linke        6.3
Pirates      2.5
Others      2.4

Non-voters / undecided 29.9

New ARD poll:

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Job Approval Ratings:

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Do you think the German Military should get "drones" ?

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In Bavaria there will be a referendum on university tuition fees on Sept. 15, together with the state election:

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Should be good for the leftwing mobilisation (even though I don't know how the Bavarians in general think about this issue). At least in Austria, about 70% of people want tuition fees.

n-tv claimed that 2/3-3/4 of Bavarians oppose tuition fees.

If true, considering red-green is taking over Niedersachsen, Germany will once again be without general tuition fees anywhere!

Interesting.

This is based on what (poll) ? Or just wild guessing by n-tv ?

I find it funny that Germany moves away from tuition fees while we are introducing them with March in an adapted form.

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/umfrage-mehrheit-gegen-studiengebuehren-1.1569103 (http://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/umfrage-mehrheit-gegen-studiengebuehren-1.1569103)

Infratest Dimap poll for BR, beginning of this January: 72% of Bavarians against tuition fees, only 25% for them.

I find the difference between German and Austrian public opinion regarding study fees very interesting. Any reasons for the high support in Austria?

It seems like practically every Western state had them for a short while, but they've proved quite unpopular.

Considering the margin, they might have cost McAllister his job.

Hmm.

Maybe the same thing that we saw in the draft issue, just a bit different:

In the draft debate, the old people were like: "If I had to be drafted, the young ones should be drafted as well !"

When it comes to the tuition fees, the old people think: "If I couldn't go to university and had to do REAL WORK instead, the young people who go to the unis now SHOULD AT LEAST PAY for it !"

;)

Indeed, the Balearic are annexed de facto. Some islands down here will be added soon.

Looking at some polls above, I think it's a shame the lack of a competitive candidate inside the SPD. We're condemned to see a Great Coalition. Bad news for Europe (and for the South, of course) :P

There's also a new Rheinland-Pfalz poll, which shows the new Governor Marie-Luise Dreyer from the SPÖ is now moving far ahead of CDU-leader Julia Klöckner:

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No state election poll ("Sonntagsfrage") though.

Interesting. I wonder what drove the CSU to de-couple State and Federal elections. Now they will have to cope in the state elections with an issue vote with high mobilisation potential, that they are bound to lose, while not getting Merkel coattails.

This could end up with a state-level CSU (and, more improtantly, FDP) defeat, which would send an important signal to the federal electorate just one week before the  federal election.

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At this rate the FDP should put Guido back in charge. :P

Which would instantly give him -12 on this grid... ;)

And note that their "new" hope, Brüderle, has taken serious hits from the sexism debate.

The problem with Guido is that his strategy to brand the FDP as "low tax / lean government" party failed, as they did not deliver on their promises. Reinstalling him would remind voters of that failure. Considering that German Minsters of Foreign Affairs typically get approval ratings far above 60%, Weseterwelle still scores pretty low.

Some more interesting takeaways from the infratest / ARD poll (http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend1660.pdf):

Which party shall lead the next government?
CDU      47 (-1)
SPD      45 (+6)

Time for government change?
Yes        60 (+1)
No         35 (+3)

Which of the following do you associate with black-yellow / red-green?
Growth                   53 / 30
Security                  51/ 31
The past                 47 / 30
Competence            47 / 34
Going forward         30 / 49
Justice                    30  49
Harmony                29 / 42

SPD-leaners only: Peer Steinbrück is a reason to vote
for SPD                 42
against SPD           45

Will the FDP leadership last until the federal election?
Yes                      46
No                       49

More or less Europe?
Strengthen common EU policies   65 (+5 against September 2012)
Rely on own strength                  31 (-9)

Markus Söder, the Bavarian Finance Minister from the CSU, does a Rudy Giuliani:

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Rudy Giuliani:

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He looks a bit like the Joker from the 1960s Batman series, to be frank. :P

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Emnid, 03.02.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

Holding steady. Grand it is since Merkel can't eke out too many more votes for the CDU/CSU alone and the FDP loan strategy might backfire.

Oh Ed

()

What's the problem?

04.02.2013, Forsa, Berlin (state election):

CDU: 26%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 25%
Linke: 10%
Piraten: 7%

others: 7%

The governing SPD-CDU would retain its majority (51-42), although the CDU would lead it.

Steinbrück

Obviously Steinbrück has not always behaved in an entirely comradely way towards international comrades, but there's no obvious problem in letting bygones be bygones.

Forsa, 06.02.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-green with no majority (40-48).
CDU with no majority (41-47).

Some trouble for Merkel:

University Revokes German Official’s Doctorate

By CHRIS COTTRELL
Published: February 5, 2013

BERLIN — A German university has moved to strip the country’s education minister of her academic title after ruling that she plagiarized parts of her doctoral dissertation some 30 years ago.

A body of scholars at Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf voted late Tuesday to revoke the doctorate of Education Minister Annette Schavan, a leading member of the governing Christian Democrats and a close confidante of Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to a statement made available on the university’s Web site.

The case against Ms. Schavan represented the second time a member of Ms. Merkel’s cabinet had had such problems with long-ago academic work. In 2011 Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a leading member of the Bavarian-based Christian Social Union, the sister party of Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats, left politics after it was revealed that he plagiarized parts of his dissertation.

Ms. Schavan was an outspoken critic of Mr. Guttenberg’s academic failings at the time.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/world/europe/german-university-revokes-minister-annette-schavans-doctorate.html

...

Notice the hypocrisy ... :P

Guttenberg, at least, resigned even before his title was revoked. Schavan seems like she wants to fight.

This scandal will have no consequences. Schavan is going to sue the university, effectively burying the issue until the court decides - which will be after the elections.

Maybe, if there are signs she will lose her case (which is likely), she might retire "for health reasons" after the federal election.

How fantastically German.

What a bizarre thing for it to come out 30 years after the fact.

Infratest dimap, 07.02.2013, Federal Election

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 29%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 6%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-Green almost at a majority (44-45).

The Guttenberg case lead to people looking over more politicians' doctoral theses.
Westerwelle's, btw, is incredibly thin on content, very badly written, but evidently not a case of plagiarism. :)

Schavan has resigned.