Talk Elections

The 2014 Senatorial Predictions are now active (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php).

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Mark Darr (R)
Colorado: Jane Norton (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R)
Hawaii special: Charles Djou (R)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Chet Culver (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Justin Amash (R)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (Tate Reeves if Cochran retire) (R)
Montana: Max Baucus (D)
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Gary Johnson (R, maybe as indi or lib?)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lee Bright (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (R)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi(or Cynthia Lummis if he retire) (R)

LOL no on the bolds

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R)
Hawaii special: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Mark Keenum (R)
Montana: Marc Racicot (R)
Nebraska: Adrian Smith (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsay Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant (D)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Well, regarding the names in bold, it might be a little wishful thinking on my part xD

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) or Tate Reeves (R)
Montana: Max Baucus (D)
Nebraska: Dave Heinemann (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Provided that the Democrats are good at keeping their elections as local as possible.  Flips in bold.

---

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: John Barrow (D)
Hawaii special:
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (Tate Reeves if Cochran retire) (R)
Montana: Brian Schweitzer (D)
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Alabama- Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska- Mead Treadwell (R)
Arkansas- Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado- Mark Udall (D)
Delaware- Chris Coons (D)
Georgia- Paul Broun (R)
Hawaii- Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho- Jim Risch (R)
Illinois-Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa- Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas- Todd Tiahart (R)
Kentucky Alison Lundgren Grimes (D)
Louisana- Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine- Susan Collins- (R)
Massachusetts- Ed Markey (D)
Michigan- Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota- Al Franken (D)
Mississippi- Stacey Pickering (R)
Montana- Champ Edmunds (R)
Nebraska- Dave Heineman (R)
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey- Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico- Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina- Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon- Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island- Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina- Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina Special- Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota- Kristi Noem (R)
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas- John Cornyn (R)
Virginia- Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming- Elizabeth Cheney (R)

Alabama- Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska- Begich (D)
Arkansas- Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado- Mark Udall (D)
Delaware- Chris Coons (D)
Georgia- Handle
Hawaii- Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho- Jim Risch (R)
Illinois-Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa- Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas- Todd Tiahart (R)
Kentucky Mitch (R)
Louisana-Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine- Susan Collins- (R)
Massachusetts- Ed Markey (D)
Michigan- Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota- Al Franken (D)
Mississippi- Stacey Pickering (R)
Montana- Daines (R)
Nebraska- Dave Heineman (R)
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey- Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico- Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina- Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon- Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island- Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina- Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina Special- Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota- Rounds (R)
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas- John Cornyn (R)
Virginia- Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming- Enzi (R)

Pretty much these exactly.

I don't think Graham will keep his seat.  People in SC (especially in Low Country) cannot stand him.

Those Low Country people are smart

I don't see Graham losing yet unfortunately. Unless I am mistaken, his home base is up in the northwest, and his hawkishness should appeal to the people by the coast.

In some states, we can't exactly predict if we don't know the candidates, so I'm going to offer my predictions based on different scenarios. Seems like the only feasible way to do it.

Alabama
Sessions                        Safe R Hold

Alaska
Begich v. Treadwell         Lean D Hold
Begich v. Miller               Likely D Hold
Begich v. Palin                Safe D Hold
Overall: Likely D Hold

Arkansas
Pryor v. Cotton              Lean R Pickup
Pryor v. Darr                 Likely D Hold
Pryor v. Womack           Toss-Up
Overall: Toss-Up

Colorado
Udall                             Safe D Hold

Delaware
Coons                           Safe D

Georgia
Cleland v. Broun            Likely D Pickup
Cleland v. Gingrey         Likely D Pickup
Cleland v. Kingston        Likely D Pickup
Cleland v. Handel           Likely D Pickup
Nunn v. Broun              Lean D Pickup
Nunn v. Gingrey           Lean D Pickup
Nunn v. Kingston         Toss-Up
Nunn v. Handel            Lean R Hold
Carter v. Broun             Toss-Up
Carter v. Gingrey          Toss-Up
Carter v. Kingston        Lean R Hold
Carter v. Handel           Lean R Hold
Overall: Lean D Pickup (only because the GOP field is unusually weak and the Dem field is unusually strong)

Hawaii
Hanabusa                    Safe D Hold
Schatz v. Lingle           Safe D Hold
Schatz v. Djou             Lean D Hold
Overall: Likely D Hold

Idaho
Risch                           Safe R Hold

Illinois
Durbin                         Safe D Hold

Iowa
Braley                          Likely D Hold

Kansas
Roberts                        Safe R Hold

Kentucky
McConnell v. Grimes     Lean D Pickup
McConnell v. Other       Likely R Hold
Overall:                        Toss-Up

Louisiana
Landrieu                      Likely D Hold

Maine
Collins                         Safe R Hold

Massachusetts
Markey                        Safe D Hold

Michigan
Peters v. Rogers           Likely D Hold
Peters v. Land              Likely D Hold
Overall: Likely D Hold

Minnesota
Franken                      Safe D Hold

Mississippi
Cochran                      Safe R Hold

Montana
Schweitzer                  Safe D Hold

Nebraska
No idea what candidates will run since Johanns is retiring, but regardless, it's a Safe R Hold

New Hampshire
Shaheen                     Safe D Hold

New Jersey
Booker                        Safe D Hold

New Mexico
Udall                           Safe D Hold

North Carolina
Hagan                         Lean D Hold

Oklahoma
Inhofe                         Safe R Hold

Oregon
Merkley                       Safe D Hold

Rhode Island
Reed                           Safe D Hold

South Carolina
Graham                      Safe R Hold
Graham Primaried Out          Lean R Hold

South Carolina Special
Scott                          Safe R Hold

South Dakota
Rounds                       Safe R Pickup

Tennessee
Alexander                    Safe R Hold

Texas
Cornyn                       Likely R Hold

Virginia
Warner                       Safe D Hold


West Virginia
Moore Capito              Likely R Pickup

Wyoming
Enzi                          Safe R Hold

Lightning Round
Alabama: Sessions
Alaska: Begich
Arkansas: Cotton
Colorado: Udall
Delaware: Coons
Georgia: TOO DIFFICULT
Hawaii: Hanabusa
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin
Iowa: Braley
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: Grimes
Louisiana: Landrieu
Maine: Collins
Massachusetts: Markey
Michigan: Peters
Minnesota: Franken
Mississippi: Cochran
Montana: Schweitzer
Nebraska: Osborn
New Hampshire: Shaheen
New Jersey: Booker
New Mexico: Udall
North Carolina: Hagan
Oklahoma: Inhofe
Oregon: Merkley
Rhode Island: Reed
South Carolina: Graham
South Carolina Special: Scott
South Dakota: Rounds
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Cornyn
Virginia: Warner
West Virginia: Moore Capito
Wyoming: Enzi

Georgia certainly looks to be the most competitive/exciting race of the year.

For Georgia, GOP Candidates will most likely be Gingrey and Democratic will be Nunn, I believe Nunn will pull it off, but it will be crazy close.

Alabama: Sessions
Alaska: Begich
Arkansas: Cotton
Colorado: Udall
Delaware: Coons
Georgia: Nunn
Hawaii: Hanabusa
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin
Iowa: Braley
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: Grimes
Louisiana: Landrieu
Maine: Collins
Massachusetts: Markey
Michigan: Peters
Minnesota: Franken
Mississippi: Cochran
Montana: Schweitzer
Nebraska: Heineman
New Hampshire: Shaheen
New Jersey: Booker
New Mexico: Udall
North Carolina: Hagan
Oklahoma: Inhofe
Oregon: Merkley
Rhode Island: Reed
South Carolina: Graham
South Carolina Special: Scott
South Dakota: Rounds
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Cornyn
Virginia: Warner
West Virginia: Moore Capito
Wyoming: Cheney

 Alabama: Jeff Sessions (Republican)
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (Republican)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (Republican)
 Colorado: Mark Udall (Democrat)
 Delaware: Chris Coons (Democrat)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (Democrat)
 Hawaii: Brian Schatz (Democrat)
 Idaho: Jim Risch (Republican)
 Illinois: Dick Durbin (Democrat)
 Iowa: Bruce Braley (Democrat)
 Kansas: Pat Roberts (Republican)
 Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (Republican)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (Republican)
 Maine: Susan Collins: (Republican)
 Massachusetts: Ed Markey (Democrat)
 Michigan: Gary Peters (Democrat)
 Minnesota: Al Franken (Democrat)
 Mississippi: Thad Cochran (Republican)
Montana: Champ Edmunds (Republican)
 Nebraska: Dave Heineman (Republican)
 New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat)
 New Jersey: Cory Booker (Democrat)
 New Mexico: Tom Udall (Democrat)
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (Republican)
 Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (Republican)
 Oregon: Jeff Merkley (Democrat)
 Rhode Island: Jack Reed (Democrat)
 South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (Republican)
 South Carolina Special: Tim Scott (Republican)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (Republican)
 Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (Republican)
 Texas: John Cornyn (Republican)
 Virginia: Mark Warner (Democrat)
West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito (Republican)
 Wyoming: Mike Enzi (Republican)

Ark Pryor
GA  Nunn
IA.  Braley
KY  McConnell
LA   Landrieu
MI   Peters
MT.  Walsh
NC.  Hagen
SD.  Rounds
WV.  SMC

Also...Champ Edmunds? What? The only Republican candidate who could possibly beat John Walsh is Steve Daines, and he's probably running.

I'm updating my predictions from June. Some of them were very misinformed, and some of them just have changed a lot.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mark Begich
Arkansas: Tom Cotton**
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Michelle Nunn
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa**
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Bruce Braley
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes**
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Gary Peters
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Thad Cochran
Montana: John Walsh**
Nebraska: Shane Osborn
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Kay Hagan
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham
South Carolina Special: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito**
Wyoming: Mike Enzi

**Least Confident (McConnell, Pryor, Tennant, Daines, and Schatz could all easily win as well)

Alabama: Jeff Sessionsha s a 100% chance of winning
Alaska: joe miller will be the nominee and the senator
Arkansas:  to mcotton will win because he loves the constitution and mark pryor wants to force arkansans into gay abortions
Colorado: could go either way but i think the pubs have the slight edge depending on who they nominate
Delaware: coons will probably win but o'donnell could make it very competitive, especially if biden son is the nominee after he primaries coons becauset he biden name in adelwre is bad now because they are embarrassed
Georgia: Gingrey
Hawaii: if hanabuka and sh**ts cause enough rival they can probably make a rino like lingee win, it should be someone beter but hey its a pick up chance
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin because the frauds from scihago if that were stoppdd a true conservative like keyes could win he has run in illinois before and wouldnt tolerate the fraud biker gangs and abortion lovers
Iowa: Whoever the repbulcians nominate will defeat braley easily, this one is gone
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: Mat bevin will almost certainly be the nomienee and winner when people find out grimes will probably import brown ones from chicago to swing the results, mcconnell would still beat grimey but he is a rino
Louisiana: Senator Cassidy will be great
Maine: A tea party freedom fighter will beat collins and win the seat, maine isnt that liberal and collin's hijinks in the seante cannot work
Massachusetts: markey could keep the seat, but if the right rino runs than mass will evict the commie
Michigan: land will win easily against the chubber, this race is gone thanks to the unions
Minnesota: big contest here, dems could maybe defend it, idk
Mississippi: whoever beats cochran
Montana: daines
Nebraska: osborn
New Hampshire:  hte republican nominee, this one is basically gone shaheen has a 15ish% chance of holdin gon because of all the atheist commies in new hmp
New Jersey: if the accusations of cory bookers homosexuality becomes true it could swing idk hopefully lonegan runs again
New Mexico: slight edge to udall but the dems will have to work hard to defend this one
North Carolina: hagan dont have a chace
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe, on eof my favorites!
Oregon: merkley will not be reelected
Rhode Island: Jack Reed cause of the frauds lots of hippies and motorcycle gangs make the dems win here
South Carolina: Cash!
South Carolina Special: Scott!
South Dakota: rino rounds will fail in the primary against true conservative larry rhoden he gets the seat easily in the general
Tennessee: javaris lamar or whatever his name is will lose in the primary
Texas:hopefully gohmert runs but cornyn is fine and can win easy
Virginia: mark warner has an edge but we'll see idk va is weird it voted obama but its not libral
West Virginia: McGeehan easily
Wyoming: two great candidates! id be hapy with enzi or cheney, enzi prolly gets it

dude are you fcking high?

We definitely will have some losses but it may be balanced out will net gains, like Walsh can definitely win while Treadwill upstages Begich.

I can see a scenario which Grimes and Nunn replaces Landrieu and Hagan also.

No, just a troll.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Dave Heinemann (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

My current predictions. 

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Dave Heinemann (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Overall, Republicans pick up two seats, but Democrats manage wins in Kentucky and Georgia.

Updated Predictions

Alabama- Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska- Mead Treadwell (R)
Arkansas- Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado- Mark Udall (D)
Delaware- Chris Coons (D)
Georgia- Michelle Nunn (D)
Illinois- Richard "Dick" Durbin (D)
Idaho- Jim Risch (R)
Iowa- Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas- Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisana- Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine- Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts- Ed Markey (D)
Michigan- Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota- Al Franken (D)
Mississippi- Chris McDaniel (R)
Montana- Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska- Don Stenberg (R)
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey- Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico- Mark Udall (D)
North Carolina- Greg Brannon (R)
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon- Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island- Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina "A"- Lee Bright (R)
South Carolina "B- Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota- Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas- John Cornyn (R)
Virginia- Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming- Liz Cheney (R)

Net result is R+4... but they'll need a new leader.

You're right... I can't count worth jack...

As for the new GOP leader... I'd say it'll be Thune or Moran.

It will be 51-49 setting up what will be the tie breakers in 2016 in Illinois and NV.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) --> Safe R
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R) --> Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) --> Lean R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) --> Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) --> Safe D
Georgia: Republican (R) --> Lean R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) --> Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) --> Safe R
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) --> Lean D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) --> Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) --> Lean R
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) --> Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins (R) --> Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) --> Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) --> Toss-Up
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) --> Likely D
Mississippi: Cochran (R) --> Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) --> Likely R
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R) --> Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) --> Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) --> Safe D
New Mexico: Mark Udall (D) --> Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) --> Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) --> Safe R
Oklahoma: James Lankford (R) --> Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) --> Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) --> Safe D
South Carolina: Linsey Graham (R) --> Safe R
South Carolina: Tim Scott (R) --> Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) --> Likely R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) --> Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) --> Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) --> Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley Capito (R) --> Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) --> Safe R

Here's my profile prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515)

For a net gain of R+5 (50/50). These are subject to change obviously, and this will be updated in the future according to primary results and future polls. Eventually, I'll add result number estimates. Right now, Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana are all very fragile in terms of predictions.

Update: Moving Michigan from Lean D to Toss-Up, at least for a while. Land has been leading in the polls for a while now. Also NC Lean D --> Toss-Up. Hagan is statistically tied in (non-junk) recent polls.

Update: Moving Colorado from Likely D to Lean D and Arkansas from Toss-Up to Lean R. Added Oklahoma special race. Also moved my Alaska prediction from Begich to Treadwell. Prediction is very shaky there but its still a toss-up until we get more info on the race.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mead Treadwell
Arkansas: Tom Cotton
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Paul Broun
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Matt Whitaker
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
Louisiana: David Cassidy
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Terri Lynn Land
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel
Montana: Steve Daines
Nebraska: Shane Osborn
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Greg Brannon
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lee Bright
South Carolina: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Mike Enzi

AL: Safe R
AK: Tossup
AR: Lean R
CO: Likely D
DE: Safe D
GA: Likely R
HI: Lean Hanabusa/Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Safe D
IA: Likely D
KS: Safe R/Roberts
KY: Likely R
LA: Tossup
ME: Safe R
MI: Likely D
MS: Safe R/Lean McDaniel
MT: Likely R
NJ: Safe D
NM: Safe D
NC: Tossup
OK: Safe R
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
WV: Likely R
WY: Safe R/Likely Enzi

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Phil Gingrey (R)
Hawaii special: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (R+1)
Nebraska:  Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) (+1)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant (D)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Republicans pick up three seats, so Senate composition come 2015 is 52-47 favoring the Democrats.

Landrieu and Tennant squeak-out victories in their respective states.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

R+3. 52-47 in favor of Democrats.

My predictions as of December 23, 2013.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Mead Treadwell (R)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Ken Buck (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Christine O'Donnell (R)
Georgia: Phil Gingrey (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii Special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavasso (R)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) def. Bob Vander Plaats (R)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) def. Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Gabriel Gomez (R)
Michigan: Terri Lynn Land (R) def. Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Jim Abeler (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis (R)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Jay Stamper (D)
South Carolina Special: Tim Scott (R) def. Rick Wade (D)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D), Larry Pressler (I)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D)
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. David Alameel (D)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def. Natalie Tennant (D)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) (+1)
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) (+1)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (+1)
Nebraska:  Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Larry Pressler (I) (+1)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) (+1)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Republicans gain two seats in the Senate, making it a 51-46-3 Senate in favor of the Democrats, unsure if Pressler can pull it off in South Dakota, and if he does, unsure of what party he's going to caucus with.

MnT Walsh
MI Gary Peters
Ia Braley
SD Pressler
Ga Nunn (run off)
KY Grimes
Ark Pryor
Nj Booker (full term)
MA Markey (full term)
NH Shaheen

AK Treadwill
LA Cassidy (run off)
NC Brandon
WVa SMC

50D-47R-3I

I've never thought of this. Do you know what kind of chance he actually has at winning? He'll probably effect the race quite a bit, but really haven't seen any polling of him.

I'd be surprised if Pressler hit double digits, if he makes an impact at all. Seems rather anonymous and he's been out of it for nearly 20 years. Hardly a well-known, popular figure like King in ME.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

R+7, Pubs take the Senate 52-46-2

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) - my gut says I'm being optimistic here, but in the absence of significant knowledge and the fear of Miller I guess I lean towards the incumbent.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) - Pryor is toast IMO. Won't be as bad as Lincoln, but will still be bad.
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) - I'm getting worried that Colorado are starting to weary of Dems, but the opposition here is poor.
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R) - with any other Republican, I'm gonna back Nunn though.
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) - Hawaii is the only place where Hanabusa's primary challenge is viable IMO, but the way they are campaigning means I feel that Schatz has the slight edge. Either will win the general election.
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) - would be more competitive with a strong candidate though.
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) - THE race to watch. Will favour McConnell for now, but to not believe that Grimes has a shot is pretty unrealistic.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) - gaining the Chairmanship of the Energy Committee will only help her fundraising. Will probably depend also on how many seats the Dems are sitting on, being 49-49 or 49-50 will probably hand the state to Cassidy.
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) - hopefully the Dems also put gay marriage on the ballot here.
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R) - he WILL make the race competitive, but it's still Mississippi.
Montana: Steve Daines (R) - has tightened given Baucus's resignation.
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) - would be an R pickup with a stronger candidate.
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) - unconvinced that Pressler will have much of an impact. He's been out of office too long for people to remember him, and this isn't as independent-friendly as Maine.
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) - this is getting interesting though.
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) - nup, a Dem pickup isn't happening unless Capito gets primaried.
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) - why did Cheney even bother?

I like our chances. In senate and gov. U can change the races around as much as u want but Mnt and AK as well as Ga and La are our firewall. Barring the GOP sweeping the runoffs, there is no path to Senate majority. Picking up gov seats in vul states in MI with Black turnout will help our chances. It will be 49d-48r-3I.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieau (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: John Walsh (D)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Treadwill GOP pickup
Pryor  inc
Mark Udall inc
Handel or Kingston GOP hold
McConnell Inc
Landrieu inc
Peters Dem hold
Walsh Dem hold
Shaheen inc
Tillis or Brannon GOP pickup
Rounds GOP pickup
Warner inc
SMC GOP pickup

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) R+1
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) D+1
Hawaii (Special): Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) D+1
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Edward Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R)
Montana: John Walsh (D)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) R+1
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) R+1
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Overall: R+1 (52 D (2 I) - 46 R)

AK Sullivan R pickup
Ark Cotton R pickup
CO Mark Udall
GA Handal or Kingston
KY Lundergren Grimes D pickup
LA Mary Landrieu
MI Gary Peters
MT John Walsh
NH Shaheen
NC Tillis R pickup
SD Larry Pressler
Va Mark Warner
WVa SMC R pickup

()

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) R+1 (My classification is Lean R, very close still)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) D+1 ( Lean D, she is giving a very strong challenge)
Hawaii (Special): Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) D+1 (Lean D, But it will be a huge dogfight to the end)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) (She has been in these very tough positions before, I think she will pull it out again)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Edward Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) ( Lean D, based on Michigans voting tendencys, but the Gop is giving this a real good try)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) (I do want to see if Jim Hood runs though)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) R+1 (Safe R, I dont see the Democrats winning this unless something like a Todd Akin happens to Daines)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) (Waiting for Scott Brown to do something)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) (Lean D, she has seems to have stabilized her numbers)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) R+1 ( Lean R, I haven't seen alot of numbers from this race, last numbers were 40% Rounds, 34% Weiland so not a complete blowout)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) R+1 (Safe R, cannot see the Democrats holding this even with a Todd Akin like explosion against Capito.
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

2 Democratic gains:
Georgia
Kentucky

4 Republican Gains:
Arkansas
West Virginia
Montana
South Dakota

+2 Republican

Senate goes from 55-45 Democrat Control to 53-47 Democrat Control

Guys, why do you think John Walsh will win? Because he's the incumbent now?? That just doesn't justify it, I don't think anybody will think of him as an incumbent either. He's down by at least 12 in the polls, and Obama is increasing his unpopularity here.

Time to update

Alabama-Jeff Sessions
Alaska-Mead Treadwell/Daniel Sullivan (Whichever of these two challengers emerges with GOP nomination should win)
Arkansas-Tom Cotton (If your're looking for a safe bet on an incumbent to go down, Pryor is your bet)
Colorado-Mark Udall (This one will be closer than previously thought, but I think Hickenlooper is more likely to lose)
Delaware-Chris Coons (Only way this gets interesting is if someone like Beau Biden is a late primary entry)
Georgia-Karen Handel(Upset Special A) (I think the GOP primary is close enough that only Art Gardner and Derrick Grayson, Handel is probably the best candidate to match Nunn's advantage's, but it will be very close.)
Hawaii-Brian Schatz (Yes, this Primary will get nasty, yes it could get competitive, but if former popular former Governor Linda Lingle couldn't win here, how could Cam Cavasso?)
Idaho-Jim Risch
Illinois-Dick Durbin
Iowa-Bruce Braley
Kansas-Pat Roberts (The sad part is if Milton Wolf wins the GOP primary, He'd win the General with Ease)
Kentucky-Alison Lundergan Grimes (Gut tells me she beats McConnell, loses narrowly to Bevin, therefore upset special B)
Louisiana-Bill Cassidy (In Runoff) (30% chance Landrieu doesn't make the runoff)
Maine-Susan Collins
Massachusetts- Ed Markey
Michigan-Gary Peters
MinnesotaAl Franken
Mississippi-Chris McDaniel
Montana-Steve Daines(Even with Walsh becoming an incumbent, the Democrats are still heavy underdogs)
Nebraska-Ben Sasse
New HampshireJeanne Shaheen( If Scott Brown makes up his mind about what he's doing, this race could be more competitive... but Shaheen would still be favored)
New Jersey Cory Booker (Even more of a prohibitive favorite with the Christie imbroglio going on)
New Mexico-Tom Udall
North Carolina Greg Brannon
Oklahoma-Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma 'B' T.W Shannon
Oregon-Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island-Jack Reed
South Carolina-Lee Bright(Graham needs to get over 50%, because I don't think he's going to win a runoff)
South Carolina "B" Tim Scott
South Dakota Mike Rounds (Pressler gets to about 10-15% but I think he draws from both candidates equally, thus a Rounds victory)
TennesseeJoe Carr (Again, doesn't matter who wins the GOP primary, they'll win the General with ease)
Texas John Cornyn (If Steve Stockman was slightly competent he could beat Cornyn)
Virginia Mark Warner (This one has the potential to get closer (5-10% margin) with Gillespie, but there's no guarantee  that he will be the nominee.
West Virginia Shelly Moore Capito(Even with Tennant, this one's gone)
Wyoming Mike Enzi (All the fun got sucked out of this race when Liz Cheney dropped out)

Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Alaska - Mark Begich (slew of right wing indies and a potential Miller nomination will pull him over the line)
Arkansas - Tom Cotton R+1 (Luck has run out for Arkansas Dems, and Cotton is a compelling candidate)
Colorado - Mark Udall
Delaware - Chris Coons
Georgia - Michelle Nunn D+1 (The GOP field is a sh**t sandwich, and if Nunn is still leading after the Obamacare rollout fiasco then I like her chances)
Hawaii Class III - Brian Schatz (I have confidence he'll beat Hanabusa in the primary, but it's safer than Safe D no matter who Dems nominate)
Idaho - Jim Risch
Illinois - Dick Durbin
Iowa - Bruce Braley (Like Georgia, the GOP field is a sh**t sandwich and that will throw it to Braley)
Kansas - Pat Roberts (I do, however, think he'll lose renomination if someone of higher caliber than Milton Wolfe jumps in)
Kentucky - Alison Lundergan Grimes D+1 (She's proven that she has appeal in Coal Country and Obamacare is working exceedingly well in Kentucky, to the detriment of the viciously anti-Obamacare McConnell)
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (Even if it does go to a runoff, Landrieu has pulled it off before. Remember "Operation Icing on the Cake"?)
Maine - Susan Collins
Massachusetts - Ed Markey
Michigan - Gary Peters (His deficits now are likely due to low name recognition, and the polls may be under-sampling the Detroit metro)
Minnesota - Al Franken
Mississippi - Chris McDaniel (Cochran will go down easy in the primary, but it could go to Childers if he ends up saying something so mind-numbingly, ear-meltingly offensive that even Mississippi won't want him, which is certainly possible given his previous record)
Montana - Steve Daines R+1 (Walsh will put up a solid fight, but this one is gone barring a Libertarian peeling off enough Republican votes to throw it our way like in 2012)
Nebraska - Shane Osborn
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (Scott Brown is just looking for attention with his potential Senate bid, and even if he does go for it the attack ads will write themselves and he might not even make it out of the primary)
New Jersey - Cory Booker
New Mexico - Tom Udall
North Carolina - Kay Hagan (She needs to thank God every second of every day for giving her such sh**tty opponents, otherwise she'd be gone in a heartbeat)
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma Class III - Jim Lankford
Oregon - Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island - Jack Reed
South Carolina - Lee Bright (Graham doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell in a primary runoff)
South Carolina Class III - Tim Scott
South Dakota - Mike Rounds R+1 (Could change if Weiland drops out and endorses Pressler)
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Texas - John Cornyn
Virginia - Mark Warner (The Beltway Press's constant fluffing of Gillespie is quite humorous)
West Virginia - Shelly Moore Capito R+1 (Like Arkansas, luck has run out for West Virginia Dems)
Wyoming Mike Enzi

So that's 2 Dem pickups and 4 GOP pickups, for a net change of R+2, leaving us with a 53D-47R Senate.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Jane Norton (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: John Walsh (D)
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lee Bright (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

Update (hopefully you can see this)

()

Yes, this is probably a bit favorable to the republicans, but I'll make a few special notes:

Michigan: Only because Land has been consistently leading, will most likely pull back to Lean D before election time.

Oregon: Well, Merkley is getting some tough opponents, but no doubt I expect him to win.

Colorado: Lead has been shrunk to ~5 points, but GOP field is weak. This should resemble NV'10 or WA'10.

Arkansas: Base is dying, Pryor approval is awful, and Cotton is now leading in the polls.

Montana: This could be Lean R or Likely R, but I think people are really overestimating Walsh here.

Georgia and Kentucky: Despite ties in the polls, Georgia has in-elasticity for republicans and Kentucky has an incumbent. Both states should both resemble their elections from '08.

Everything else I think is self explanatory. R's should pick up anywhere from 4 to 7 seats (I'm currently predicting 5). Subject to change of course for many of these races.

updated

AL: Safe R
AK: Tossup
AR: Lean R
CO: Lean D
DE: Safe D
GA: Likely R
HI: Lean Hanabusa/Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Safe D
IA: Likely D
KS: Safe R/Roberts
KY: Likely R
LA: Tossup
ME: Safe R
MI: Likely D
MS: Safe R/Tossup
MT: Likely R
NJ: Safe D
NM: Safe D
NC: Tossup
OK: Safe R
OK-S: Lean Lankford
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
WV: Likely R
WY: Safe R

UPDATE:
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) LEAN D
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) TOSSUP
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) LIKELY D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) SAFE D
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) TOSSUP
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) LIKELY D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) TOSSUP
Louisiana: Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN D
Maine: Susan Collins (R) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) TOSSUP
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) SAFE D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) LIKELY R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: TW Shannon (R) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) LIKELY R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+3

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions (R); SAFE R
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R); TOSSUP (+1)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R); LIKELY R (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D); LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D); SAFE D
Georgia: Jack Kingston (R); LIKELY R
Hawaii: Colleen Hanabusa (D); SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R); SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D); SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D); LIKELY D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R); SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R); LIKELY R
LA: Bill Cassidy (R); TOSSUP (+1)
ME: Susan Collins (R); SAFE R
MI: Gary Peters (D); LEAN D
MS: Thad Cochran (R); SAFE R
MT: Steve Daines (R); LEAN R
NH:  Jeanne Shaheen (D); LIKELY D
NJ: Cory Booker (D); SAFE D
NM: Tom Udall (D); SAFE D
NC: Thom Tillis (R); TOSSUP (+1)
OK: Jim Inhofe (R); SAFE R
OK-S:  James Lankford (R); SAFE R
SC: Lindsey Graham (R); SAFE R
SC-S: Tim Scott (R); SAFE R
SD: Mike Rounds (R); LIKELY R (+1)
WV: Shelly Moore Capito (R); LEAN R (+1)
WY: Mike Enzi (R); SAFE R

7 GOP Pickups result in a switch in Senate control; 52R-47D

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) def. No One. Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Daniel Sullivan (R). Lean D
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) Likely R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) Likely D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Tom Kovach(R). Safe D
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) def. Phil Gingrey(R). Tossup.
Hawaii special: Colleen Hanabusa (D) def. Campbell Cavasso(R). Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def Generic(D). Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R). Safe D.
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) def. Mark Jacobs (R). Lean D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D). Safe R
Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes def. Mitch McConnell (R). Tossup
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) def. Bill Cassidy (R). Lean D.
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D). Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Mark Inman (R). Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terry Lynn Rand (R). Tossup
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Julianne Ortman (R). Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D). Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D). Likely R
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R) def. Kim Robak (D). Likely R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown. Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R). Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Allen Weh (R). Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Tom Tillis (R). Tossup.
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D). Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Jason Conger (R). Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Curt Schilling (R). Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Jay Stamper (D). Likely R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. ????????????. Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D). Likely R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D). Likely R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Kesha Rogers (D). Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gilliseppe (R). Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def. Natalie Tennant (D). Lean R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Dave Freudenthal (D). Safe R

Dem:51 (-2)

Rep:47 (+2)

What do you all think?

This would be GOP +2. You're counting Iowa as a R seat currently, which it's not.

Alright, fixed, I thought that it was an open seat.

But other than that, what do you think?

Begich I def Sullivan (Treadwill implosion) LD
Cotton def Pryor I R+1 LR
Udall I LD
Handel LR
Braley LD
Cassidy def Landrieu I R+1 tossup
Peters def Land tossup
Daines def Walsh I  R+1 LR
Hagen I def Tillis tossup
Rounds def Weiland  R+1 LR
SMC def Tennant R+1 LR

50/50 senate

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) - Safe R
*Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) - Toss-Up
*Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) - Lean R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) - Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) - Safe D
Georgia: Phil Gingrey (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D) - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) - Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) - 58%, Jim Oberweis (R) - 39%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) - Likely D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) - Lean R
*Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) - Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins (R) - Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) - Safe R
*Montana: Steve Daines (R) - Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) - 61%, Dave Domina (D) - 36%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) - Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) - 49%, Thom Tillis - 48%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) - Safe R
Oklahoma: James Lankford (R) - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) - Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) - Safe R
South Carolina: Tim Scott (R) - Safe R
*South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) - Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) - 57%, David Alameel (D) - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) - Safe D
*West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) - 56%, Natalie Tennant (D) - 42%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) - Safe R

* Pickup

Net R+6, republicans barely take the senate 51-47-2

()

()

UPDATE:
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) LEAN D
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) LEAN R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) SAFE D
Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) TOSSUP
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) LIKELY D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) TOSSUP
Louisiana: Mary Landrieau (D) TOSSUP
Maine: Susan Collins (R) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) TOSSUP
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) SAFE D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) LIKELY R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) LIKELY R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+3

Primaries:

AK: Dan Sullivan
CO: Cory Gardner
GA: Michelle Nunn, Jack Kingston
HI: Colleen Hanabusa
IA: Mark Jacobs
KY: Mitch McConnell
LA: Bill Cassidy
MS: Thad Cochran
NE: Shane Osborn
NH: Scott Brown
OK: TW Shannon
OR: Monica Wehby
SD: Mike Rounds

I don't this map making it. We will win MI before we win GA.

Winner in Bold

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R) (R+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: Karen Handel (R) vs. Michelle Nunn (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)  vs. Jim Oberweis (R)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Matt Whitaker (R)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)  vs. Chad Taylor (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) (D+1)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) vs. Bill Cassidy (R) vs. Rob Maness (R) vs. Paul Hollis (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R) vs. Shenna Bellows (D)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) vs. Brian Herr (R)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) vs. Terri Lynn Land (R)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) vs. Jim Abeler (R)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (R) vs. Travis Childers (D)
Montana: John Walsh (D) vs. Steve Daines (R) (R+1)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) vs. Dave Domina (D)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. Scott Brown (R)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) vs. Brian Golberg (R)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) vs. Allen Weh (R)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) vs. Thom Tillis (R)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) vs. Matt Silverstein (D)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) vs. Monica Wehby (R)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Brad Hutto (D)
South Dakota: Rick Weiland (D) vs. Mike Rounds (R) vs. Larry Pressler (I) (R+1)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) vs. Larry Crim (D)
Texas: John Cornyn (R) vs. David Alameel (D)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) vs. Ed Gillespie (R)
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R) (R+1)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)


Hawaii (Special): Brian Schatz (D) vs. Cam Cavasso (R)
Oklahoma (Special): T.W. Shannon (R) vs. Constance Johnson (D)
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott (R) vs. Joyce Dickerson (D)


Overall: R+3

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R)
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D)
Georgia: David Perdue (R)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D)
Michigan: Terri Lynn Land (R)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska: Shane Osborn (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)
Oklahoma special: T.W. Shannon (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R)

R + 9

Hey Will, that would be R+9. You didn't count SD or MT.

Thanks, I fixed it.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (Republican)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (Republican)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (Republican)
Colorado: Corey Gardner (Republican)
Delaware: Chris Coons (Democrat)
Georgia: David Perdue (Republican)
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (Democrat)
Idaho: Jim Risch (Republican)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (Democrat)
Iowa: Joni Ernst (Republican)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (Republican)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (Republican)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (Republican)
Maine: Susan Collins (Republican)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (Democrat)
Michigan: Terri Lyn Land (Republican)
Minnesota: Al Franken (Democrat)
Mississippi: Chris McDaniel (Republican)
Montana: Steve Daines (Republican)
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (Republican)
New Hampshire: Scott Brown (Republican)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (Democrat)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (Democrat)
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (Republican)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (Republican)
Oklahoma (Special Election): James Lankford (Republican)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (Democrat)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (Democrat)
South Carolina: Lee Bright (Republican)
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (Republican)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (Republican)
Tennessee: Joe Carr (Republican)
Texas: John Cornyn (Republican)
Virginia: Mark Warner (Democrat)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (Republican)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (Republican)

All in all, the Senate races will turn out badly for the Democrats. In 2016, however, there is a strong possibility that the Democrats will regain the Senate due to the fact that many vulnerable Republicans first elected in 2010 are up for re-election in states that will likely go Democratic in the Presidential race.

Am I the only one who thinks that Brown's New Hampshire campaign is hilarious? "Obamacare Isn't Working" lmao

...
What?

Decided to update my predictions, hope you guys like them ;)

That's awfully pessimistic, things just aren't that dire and if anything the mood is improving for Democrats.

I just have a gut feeling that the Democrats are going to fare poorly in the Senate races this year (though I see them doing pretty well in the Gubernatorial races and some House races).

I have updated the 2014 US Senate Predictions to include OK Special.  Please update your predictions.
Enjoy,
Dave

In the event of a runoff in Louisiana and/or Georgia, will our predictions be graded based on the runoff results or the Election Day results?

The one that matters is the one that elects the candidate.  So neither of these can be <50%.
Enjoy,
Dave

Begich def Sullivan
Pryor def Cotton
Grimes def McConnell
Hagen def Tillis

Cassidy wins in runoff
Kingston wins in runoff
SMC def Tennant
Rounds def Weilan
Daines def Walsh

3-5 seat net loss for Dems

UPDATE:
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) LEAN D
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (R) def. Tom Cotton (R) PURE TOSSUP
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) SAFE D
Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) LIKELY D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  TOSSUP/ TILT R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) PURE TOSSUP
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LEAN D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Julianne Ortman SAFE D (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) LIKELY R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LEAN R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis TOSSUP/TILT D
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) LIKELY R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+4

()

Update

Alabama:Jeff Sessions
Alaska:Mark Begich
Arkansas:Tom Cotton
Colorado:Mark Udall
Delaware:Chris Coons
Georgia:Michelle Nunn
Hawaii:Colleen Hanabusa
Idaho:Jim Risch
Illinois:Dick Durbin
Kansas:Pat Roberts
Kentucky:Mitch McConnell
Louisiana:Mary Landrieu
Maine:Susan Collins
Massachusetts:Ed Markey
Michigan:Gary Peters
Minnesota:Al Franken
Mississippi:Thad Cochran
Montana:Steve Daines
Nebraska:Ben Sasse
New Hampshire:Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey:Cory Booker
New Mexico:Tom Udall
North Carolina:Kay Hagan
Oklahoma:Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford
Oregon:Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island:Jack Reed
South Carolina:Lindsey Graham
South Carolina (Special):Tim Scott
South Dakota:Mike Rounds
Tennessee:Lamar Alexander
Texas:John Cornyn
Virginia:Mark Warner
West Virginia:Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming:Mike Enzi

Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Mark Pryor, Tossup
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu, Tossup
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Natalie Tennant, Tossup
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

Republicans net 3, resulting in a Democratic Senate (52-48).

I'll probably catch some flack for giving Landrieu and Pryor a pass while predicting that Hagan loses.  However, I think that Democrats are overstating their chances in North Carolina - Hagan's victory in 2008 was much narrower than Landrieu's or Pryor's, and a Hagan victory would be much more dependent on Black turnout than a Democratic victory in AR, LA, or WV. 

All in all, 2014 should be a good year for conservative Southern Democrats. 

Alabama: Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan, Tossup
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, Tossup
Colorado: Cory Gardner, Tossup
Delaware: Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia: David Perdue, Lean R
Hawaii: Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin, Safe D
Iowa: Joni Ernst, Tossup
Kansas: Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, Lean R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy, Tossup
Maine: Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters, Tossup
Minnesota: Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines, Safe R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaeen, Lean D
New Jersey: Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis, Tossup
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford or T.W. Shannon, Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley, Lean D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special): Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds, Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner, Lean D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito, Lean R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi, Safe R

Republicans +9

Your projection is actually +4 (51-49 Dem), WV is democratic right now - if Capito wins it would be a pickup.

Also, Hagan's margin of victory in 2008 was actually bigger than Landrieu's- Hagan won by 8.5%, Landrieu won by just 6.4% (Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent democrat in 2008). Obviously Pryor won by a lot more than Hagan did, but that was only because Pryor had no major party opposition last time - he ran against a green party candidate - rather than because of anything Pryor had done or not done as Senator. As it was, that Green Party candidate got 20.5% of the vote (a very strong third-party performance), so there was a movement against him even then.

But I said that Tennant wins...so WV is not a pickup. 

I would seriously bet you $1000 that the combination of NC/WV (Kay Hagan losing AND Natalie Tennant winning) is not possible. 

I just can't see Tennant winning.

Also:
Alabama:  Jeff Sessions, Safe R
Alaska: Mark Begich, Tossup
Arkansas:  Tom Cotton, Tossup (+1)
Colorado: Mark Udall, Lean D
Delaware:  Chris Coons, Safe D
Georgia:  Dave Perdue, Likely R
Hawaii:  Brian Schatz, Safe D
Idaho: James Risch, Safe R
Illinois:  Dick Durbin, Safe D
Kansas:  Pat Roberts, Safe R
Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell, Tossup
Louisiana:  Bill Cassidy (+1)
Maine:  Susan Collins, Safe R
Massachusetts:  Ed Markey, Safe D
Michigan:  Gary Peters, Lean D
Minnesota:  Al Franken, Safe D
Mississippi:  Thad Cochran, Safe R
Montana:  Steve Daines, Likely R (+1)
Nebraska:  Ben Sasse, Safe R
New Hampshire:  Jeanne Shaheen, Likely D
New Jersey:  Cory Booker, Safe D
New Mexico:  Tom Udall, Safe D
North Carolina:  Thom Tillis, Tossup (+1)
Oklahoma:  Jim Inhofe, Safe R
Oklahoma (Special): James Lankford, Safe R
Oregon:  Jeff Merkley, Likely D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed, Safe D
South Carolina:  Lindsey Graham, Safe R
South Carolina (Special):  Tim Scott, Safe R
South Dakota:  Mike Rounds, Safe R (+1)
Tennessee:  Lamar Alexander, Safe R
Texas:  John Cornyn, Safe R
Virginia:  Mark Warner, Likely D
West Virginia:  Shelley Moore Capito, Likely R(+1)
Wyoming:  Mike Enzi

So the final result is R+6 and a narrow GOP pickup.

Update (with hopefully less hackishness):

Alabama: Jeff Sessions
Alaska: Mark Begich
Arkansas: Mark Pryor
Colorado: Mark Udall
Delaware: Chris Coons
Georgia: Jack Kingston (on second thought I think his greater support from the Tea Party will let him pull an upset over Perdue)
Hawaii: Brian Schatz
Idaho: Jim Risch
Illinois: Dick Durbin
Iowa: Bruce Braley (although I think this will be much closer than people expect)
Kansas: Pat Roberts
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (see Iowa)
Louisiana: David Cassidy (although, as I've stated before, I'm not sure what effect another GOP failure to pick up the Senate will have on Landrieu's chances in a runoff)
Maine: Susan Collins
Massachusetts: Ed Markey
Michigan: Gary Peters
Minnesota: Al Franken
Mississippi: Thad Cochran
Montana: Steve Daines
Nebraska: Ben Sasse
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey: Cory Booker
New Mexico: Tom Udall
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (complete tossup IMO)
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe
Oklahoma: T.W. Shannon
Oregon: Jeff Merkley
Rhode Island: Jack Reed
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham
South Carolina: Tim Scott
South Dakota: Mike Rounds
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
Texas: John Cornyn
Virginia: Mark Warner
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito
Wyoming: Mike Enzi

I'll update these after each big primary date from now on. After a state's candidates for Senate are determined I will add percentages and bold the winner.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions - Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan - Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton - 51%, Mark Pryor - 46%. Toss-Up
Colorado: Mark Udall - Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons - Safe D
*Georgia: David Perdue - 54%, Michelle Nunn - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii (S): Brian Schatz - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch - 65%, Nels Mitchell - 33%. Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin - 58%, Jim Oberweis - 40%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley - Disputing between Likely or Lean D
Kansas: Pat Robertson - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell - 51%, Alison L. Grimes - 48%. Lean R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy - Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins - Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran - Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines - Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse - 60%, Dave Domina - 38%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker - Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall - Safe D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis - 49%, Kay Hagan - 49%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: James Inhofe - Safe R
Oklahoma (S): T.W. Shannon - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley - 56%, Monica Wehby - 43%. Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham - Safe R
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott - Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds - Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn - 58%, David Alameel - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner - Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley M. Capito - 55%, Natalie Tennant - 44%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi - Safe R

State bolded = pickup. My prediction - R+7
*Runoff predictions. I don't think Perdue or Nunn will get across 50%, probably something like 49-48.

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???

Yes?

Strange that someone would be confused, I actually thought this map was pretty reasonable save for Georgia...

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Safe Republican: Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Montana (pick-up), Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), South Carolina, South Carolina (special), South Dakota (pick-up), Tennessee, Texas, Maine, West Virginia (pick-up)

Leans Republican (in order of confidence - from highest to lowest): Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup Republican (in order of confidence): Louisiana (pick-up), North Carolina (pick-up), Arkansas (pick-up), Alaska (pick-up), Colorado (pick-up), Iowa (pick-up)

Tossup Democrat: None

Leans Democrat (in order of confidence): New Hampshire, Oregon, Michigan

Safe Democrat: Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Virginia

Currently projecting a Republican net gain of 9 seats.

Why is New Mexico only Likely D?

I'll be updating my prediction after the June 24th Mississippi runoff.  If McDaniel wins, that alone probably flips MS, AK, AR, KY and NC from GOP to the Democrats.

Isn't that a little extreme?

Also, Del Tachi, if the GOP would lose 5 Senate seats due to McDaniel, wouldn't GOP leaders in the state be more concerned and not talking about "dialing back" help to Cochran?  Wouldn't they be panicked/horrified and do everything possible to help him?

First of all, not all national groups are letting their foot off the gas in the runoff, and we can expect in-state groups to ramp-up their efforts.

As for your argument, I don't think the national GOP even realizes how much this guy is a disaster waiting to happen.  Except for the week of the nursing home incident, McDaniel's campaign has been relatively low-profile.  If he wins the primary, the heat of the spotlight most definitely intensifies on McDaniel - national Democratic organizations and liberal media will not let a single breath out of McDaniel's mouth undissected and uncritcized.  McDaniel probably already has said dozens of highly objectional soundbites at his campaign events so far, its just that the national liberal establishment isn't listening like the way they will be after June 24th (should he win).

Also, the people at the NRSC probably suffer from the same one-dimensional, not-backed-in-any-sort-of-reality mindset of "it's Mississippi - Republicans will always win elections there, derrrrr."  

To them and y'all:  Jim Hood just called.   

---

As for how many seats McDaniel costs the GOP, I'm going to be honest and say I honestly don't know but it could get pretty ugly for the Republicans.  

Mitch McConnell being tied so intricately to the national Republican Party means that any major gaffes from any Tea Party backed candidates will probably hit him the hardest.  Couple that with McConnell's history as a serial underperformer and ALG's strong candidancy and I think that probably puts McConnell at the top of McDaniel's "friendly fire" list.

Bizarre comments about rape or other women's issues from McDaniel would probably stand to benefit female Democratic incumbents, and this could make Hagan and Landrieu favorites if the gaffe is repulsive enough.  Could also help ALG, Tennant and Nunn.  

Arkansas and Alaska are close anyway, so the GOP doesn't really have the luxury of having the crazy-ass things Chris McDaniel says blasted on Morning Joe and BuzzFeed.  

Now, please don't get me wrong:  Its not like voters in Colorado and Michigan will go into the polling booth on election day with Chris McDaniel's comments in the back of their heads (well, not most of them at least) but a particularly bad gaffe exploited properly by national Democrats would be enough to drive up liberal turnout which typical lags behind in midterm years.  Thus, a McDaniel nomination helps raise the Democrats' chances in every single race this year.  

Wow, that's a thorough analysis. 

It seems like the GOP has 2 options:
1. Pour millions into the runoff to try to keep McDaniel out of the nomination.
2. Make the GOP establishment/McDaniel's campaign treat McDaniel like a 5-year-old; not let him into certain interviews and only give him prepared speeches; make him practice/rehearse responses to a bunch of different question types and pound sensibility in his head; look at all his past interviews and come up with quick counterattacks should they arise

My guess is it'll probably be #2.

Now that most primaries have been completed I decided to finally make one of these.

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I don't believe the GOP expanded the map in either OR, VA, or NH. Just media hype. However, one place where I do think they expanded the map is CO, where I'm more pessimistic than most here (although I still see Udall winning). Landrieu now looks more likely to lose than to win, especially because of the runoff. I still think McConnell will lose narrowly. Georgia is still something of a question mark, but I anticipate it will probably end up going Lean R. Iowa could go toss up, but Ernst's post primary bounce isn't enough to convince me...yet.

IceSpear, that was very insightful. This is one of the more accurate maps in my view. I'll add that the National Journal argues that all three competitive Democrat-held Senate seats in the South will swing one way or the other together, which might be something to keep in mind once November is closer. (http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/the-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip-hotline-s-race-rankings-20140625) Personally, I'm only ranking LA as a Republican pick-up because I don't think Landrieu has what it takes to win a runoff in this political climate (I don't think that any candidate can pass 50% in LA on November 4th), but I'm leaving AR and NC as Democratic holds, because it seems like Pryor is in a uniquely strong position, and Tillis is a weak candidate compared to Hagan.

Thanks! I think all three races have their own dynamic. Landrieu and Pryor would be in similar positions if it wasn't for the jungle primary in LA, but the presence of it puts her in more danger than he is. It's not a fait accompli that turnout will go down in the primary (see 2002 in Louisiana, and more recently Cochran's victory a few days ago) but the odds would be against her. I'm still iffy on Pryor. I never wrote him off even back when everyone assumed he'd be Blanche Lincoln 2.0, and I'm not getting carried away either now that everyone assumes he's the favorite because of a couple favorable polls. The North Carolina race is a bit different due to the fact that Pryor and Landrieu are relying on their personal brand to carry them through, whereas Hagan is only still in the race because NC is a swingish (though GOP tilted) state. I think the weak field there ultimately gave her a decent path to victory, but she could easily go down even with a modestly more Republican climate than we're in now.

I'll update these after each big primary date from now on. After a state's candidates for Senate are determined I will add percentages and bold the winner.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions - 100%. Safe R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan - Toss-Up
Arkansas: Tom Cotton - 50%, Mark Pryor - 47%. Toss-Up
Colorado: Mark Udall - 50%, Cory Gardner - 48%. Lean D
Delaware: Chris Coons - Safe D
*Georgia: David Perdue - 54%, Michelle Nunn - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii (S): Brian Schatz - Safe D
Idaho: Jim Risch - 65%, Nels Mitchell - 33%. Safe R
Illinois: Dick Durbin - 58%, Jim Oberweis - 40%. Safe D
Iowa: Bruce Braley - 51%, Joni Ernst, 48%. Lean D
Kansas: Pat Robertson - Safe R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell - 51%, Alison L. Grimes - 48%. Lean R
*Louisiana: Bill Cassidy - 52%, Mary Landrieu - 48%. Toss-Up
Maine: Susan Collins - 65%, Shenna Bellows - 33%. Safe R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey - Safe D
Michigan: Gary Peters - Lean D
Minnesota: Al Franken - Safe D
Mississippi: Thad Cochran - 59%, Travis Childers - 39%. Safe R
Montana: Steve Daines - 55%, John Walsh - 43%. Likely R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse - 60%, Dave Domina - 38%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Jeane Shaheen - Likely D
New Jersey: Cory Booker - 60%, Jeff Bell - 38%. Safe D
New Mexico: Tom Udall - 58%. Allen Weh - 41%. Safe D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan - 49%, Thom Tillis - 47%. Toss-Up
Oklahoma: James Inhofe - 62%, Matt Silverstein - 37%. Safe R
Oklahoma (S): James Lankford - Safe R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley - 56%, Monica Wehby - 41%. Safe D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed - Safe D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham - 56%. Brad Hutto - 42%. Safe R
South Carolina (S): Tim Scott - 58%, Joyce Dickerson - 40%. Safe R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds - 56%, Rick Weiland - 39%. Safe R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander - Safe R
Texas: John Cornyn - 58%, David Alameel - 40%. Safe R
Virginia: Mark Warner - 57%, Ed Gillespie - 40%. Safe D
West Virginia: Shelley M. Capito - 55%, Natalie Tennant - 44%. Likely R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi - Safe R

State bolded = pickup. My prediction - R+6
*Runoff predictions.

Profile Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1528)

Alabama: Sessions
Alaska: Begich
As I've pointed out elsewhere, history of Republicans overperforming polls in Alaska appears to be more attributable to polling companies with spotty records than a genuine phenomenon. Unless Sullivan actually starts leading in non-Republican firms, I give the edge to the incumbent.
Arkansas: Pryor
Perhaps wishful thinking, but unless Cotton starts leading in non-Republican firms, I once again give the edge to the incumbent.
Colorado: Udall
See Alaska, but replace Republicans with Democrats. However, Udall and Gardner have both led numerous polls, making this call a bit more uncertain. While I could easily see this being a repeat of Wisconsin 2010, Udall has held the lead slightly more often, and thus I give him a statistically insignificant edge.
Delaware: Coons
Georgia: Perdue
Given that Romney won Georgia by 7 points, I find it hard to believe that Perdue could lose in a midterm year. Even if Perdue does manage to screw it up, the runoff gives him a bit more wiggle room than other bad candidates.
Hawaii: Schatz
Idaho: Risch
Illinois: Durbin
Iowa: Braley
Like Colorado, I have little faith in this call. However, Braley's slightly more frequent polling leads give him an insignificant edge.
Kansas: Roberts
Kentucky: McConnell
It would be nice if nonpartisan pollsters were willing to look at this race, but in order to be consistent with my other ratings, I should give the advantage to the incumbent unless Grimes consistently leads in nonpartisan polls (right now it's essentially a tie.)
Louisiana: Landrieu
While she is likely doomed if it gets to be a runoff, polls usually have given her a majority in the jungle primary, meaning there is a good chance that Cassidy won't have the runoff to his advantage.
Maine: Collins
Massachusetts: Markey
Michigan: Peters
Minnesota: Franken
Mississippi: Cochran
Montana: Daines
While Walsh has tightened the race, Daines still has a clear advantage.
Nebraska: Sasse
New Hampshire: Shaheen
New Jersey: Booker
New Mexico: Udall
North Carolina: Hagan
While I suspect that PPP might be inflating Hagan's chances here, the fact that other pollsters have corroborated this gives Hagan a clear advantage.
Oklahoma: Inhofe
Oklahoma: Lankford
Oregon: Merkley
Rhode Island: Reed
South Carolina: Graham
It would be hackishness on the highest level if I were to seriously propose that Ravenel could endanger Graham's reelection.
South Carolina: Scott
South Dakota: Rounds
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Cornyn
Virginia: Warner
West Virginia: Capito
Wyoming: Enzi

Most likely to flip:
1. South Dakota
2. West Virginia

3. Montana


4. Kentucky
5. Louisiana
6. Iowa
7. Arkansas
8. Colorado
9. Georgia
10. Alaska
11. North Carolina

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) LEAN D
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) PURE TOSSUP
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def.  Kevon Wade (D) SAFE D
Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LEAN R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) LEAN D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  LEAN R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LIKELY D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Julianne Ortman SAFE D (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis TOSSUP/TILT D
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) LIKELY R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+5

Pryor def Cotton
ALG def McConnell
Pressler def Weiland def Rounds
Hagen def Tillis
Roberts is upset in KS

50-47-3 Dem majority

For now, I will have to agree with SSWE's prediction:

+5 R pickup

West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana switch from D to R.

Louisiana goes R--Mary Landrieu will lead on Election Day but won't make it past 50 percent and will lose in the runoff.  Same for Michelle Nunn here in Georgia.  The Repubs got the strongest candidate in David Perdue.

Arkansas goes R as well--Cotton will squeeze out a win if the election were held today.


Dems will hold in Alaska (Begich is running a very good race), North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado.  Will fall short in Kentucky--Grimes should keep it interesting, though.

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (D) def. Mark Begich (D) TOSSUP
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) LEAN R
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def.  Kevon Wade (D) SAFE D
Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LIKELY R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) def. Bruce Braley (R) TOSSUP
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Chad Taylor (D) SAFE R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D)  LIKELY R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LEAN D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden LIKELY D (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. John Walsh (D) LIKELY R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) LIKELY D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Murray Sabrin (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Dave Clements (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) def. Kay Hagan (D) TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) LIKELY D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Raymond McKay (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) SAFE R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) LIKELY D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) LEAN R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+8

Mary Landrieu def Cassidy
Begich def Sullivan
Pryor def Cotton
Braley def Ernst
Peters def Land

SMC def Tennant
Perdue def Nunn
McConnell def ALG
Rounds def Weiland
Daines def Walsh

R net 3 seats

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R+ 8

Unfortunately, she wont make it, but Landrieu will.

Latest update with me:

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Many tears were shed in the making of this prediction. I've been denying that the GOP had the advantage for awhile now, but it is what it is.

Toss-Ups:

Iowa: Ernst sure has been performing better than I expected here. It will be close, but Braley has been using her anti-minimum wage stance to its maximum and has been duly pursuing liberal Dems and the rural community on her pro-oil stance (the rural community opposes oil because of bio fuels). Braley holds on.

Arkansas: Pryor is a good candidate for the state, but its' rightward shift of recent years is forcing it away from even the Blue Dogs. Cotton is starting to establish a consistent lead, and he will not slip up.

Louisiana: Landrieu has not done everything she can to win this race. Like Arkansas, Louisiana has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP, abandoning even the moderates. Landrieu was popular there, but she would want to back off pro-choice stances from the past if she wants a chance. She hasn't done that, and that has motivated me to change this prediction. Cassidy takes it.

Kentucky: Of the southern toss-ups, this is where my most confidence is as a Democrat. McConnell has the organization and national power, which has caused many to say Grimes doesn't have a chance. She does, however, as anti-incumbent sentiment is strong there, and she has run a fantastic campaign. She's strong, dynamic, and feels just right for the state. The Dems take Kentucky narrowly; Grimes wins.

North Carolina: I had Hagan winning here for awhile, but her chances are slimming by the day. She isn't an especially exciting candidate and anti-incumbent sentiment will prove strong here as well. This will be a close one, but I have Tillis narrowly here.

What about Colorado? And Kentucky... just no

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Notable Races

Alaska: Sullivan is a decent candidate and Alaska is a red state, but Begich is a great fit for the state and seems to be running a very effective campaign. D HOLD.
Arkansas: Cotton is once again leading in the polls, as Pryor's bump has faded. Arkansas is moving rightward rapidly, and while Pryor is not a bad candidate, this is an R PICKUP.
Colorado: Gardner has made this a race, to his credit. However, Udall should be able to pull away and hold on. D HOLD.
Georgia: Back when the outcome of the primary was unclear, I had this as a D pickup. But this has essentially turned into a worst-case scenario for Democrats, with Perdue winning the Republican nomination. Nunn is a very strong candidate, but if she can't break 50% in November, then a pickup is unlikely. R HOLD.
Iowa: Ernst has been doing very well here, and actually leads in the polling now. I think Braley will survive in the end, but this is one of my shakiest calls. D HOLD.
Kentucky: Probably the Democrats' best chance for a pickup. Grimes is a very strong candidate, and is running a very good race. However, McConnell has survived tough elections before, and has a slight advantage overall. R HOLD.
Louisiana: This is probably the toughest race to call. At first glance, Landrieu should be able to win, having won tough races before, but the political climate has become even more hostile, and so it seems like her luck has finally run out. Like in Georgia, her best chance to win is in the initial November election. If the race proceeds to a runoff, Cassidy will most likely win. R PICKUP.
Michigan: Land is certainly a strong candidate, but Peters' polling lead has been consistent. Michigan is still a light blue state, and for that this race is a D HOLD.
Montana: With Walsh's withdrawal, the possibility of a D hold has evaporated entirely. Unless Schweitzer changes his mind and gets nominated, this is an R PICKUP.
North Carolina: Tillis seems to be performing better than expected here. He's closing the poll gap, but I think that in the end Hagan will hold on. D HOLD.
South Dakota: Rounds is a solid candidate, and Pressler's entry hasn't really affected the race as much as expected. R PICKUP.
West Virginia: Tennant is a strong candidate, but Capito leads significantly in the polls, and it doesn't seem like anything will change. After years of voting R presidentially, Republicans will finally succeed downballot. R PICKUP.

As you can see, I have Colorado at Lean D.

And Kentucky...oh yes.

Kentucky will probably be close, but if Grimes manages to win there, I don't see how North Carolina would throw Hagan out.

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Update

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The way it seems to me...

Safe Democratic
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Delaware

Likely Democratic
New Mexico
New Jersey
Oregon
Virginia
Illinois
Minnesota

Leans Democratic
New Hampshire

Toss-up (Edge to Democrat)
Colorado
Michigan

Toss-Up (Edge to Republican)
Iowa
Alaska
Arkansas
North Carolina

Leans Republican
Kentucky
Kansas
Georgia
Louisiana (Likely to go into runoff)

Likely Republican
West Virginia
South Dakota

Safe Republican
Texas
Nebraska
Montana
Oklahomas
South Carolinas
Maine
Tennessee
Wyoming
Idaho
Alabama (Uncontested)
Mississippi

UPDATE:
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) def. Dan Sullivan (R) PURE TOSSUP  
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
 Colorado: Mark Udall (D) def. Cory Gardner (R) LEAN D
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Kevin Wade SAFE D
Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) LEAN R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Bruce Baley (D) def. Joni Ernst (R) TOSSUP/TILT D
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) def. Greg Orman (I/D) LEAN R
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D) LEAN  R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) LIKELY D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden SAFE D (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. Amanda Curtis (D) SAFE R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Jeff Bell (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Allen Weh (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) def. Kay Hagan (D) PURE TOSSUP
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Mark Zaccaria (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) SAFE R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) SAFE R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+6

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R+4

Using the most conservative estimate (thus with many tossups and leans and few safe seats):

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Realistically, I'd put IL, MN, SD and NJ in the safe column.

Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: MI, MN, NH
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: AK, AR, IA, KS, LA, NC
Lean R: GA, KY
Likely R: SD
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Here's my guesstimate of what percentages will look like for each race.

Alabama:

Sessions - 100%

Alaska:

Sullivan - 48%
Begich - 47%

Arkansas:

Cotton - 51%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:

Udall - 50%
Gardner - 47%

Delaware:

Coons - 64%
Wade - 35%

Georgia (pre-runoff):

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 45%

Hawaii (S):

Schatz - 65%
Cavasso - 34%

Idaho:

Risch - 65%
Mitchell - 35%

Illinois:

Durbin - 56%
Oberweis - 43%

Kansas*:

Roberts - 46%
Orman - 43%
Taylor - 9%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 52%
Grimes - 46%

Louisiana**:

Landrieu - 45%
Cassidy - 29%
Maness - 14%
Other - 12%

Cassidy - 52%
Landrieu - 48%

Maine:

Collins - 66%
Bellows - 34%

Massachusetts:

Markey - 62%
Herr - 37%

Michigan:

Peters - 53%
Land - 45%

Minnesota:

Franken - 54%
McFadden - 43%

Mississippi:

Cochran - 59%
Childers - 40%

Montana:

Daines - 58%
Curtis - 39%

Nebraska:

Sasse - 60%
Domina - 38%

New Hampshire:

Shaheen - 54%
Brown - 46%

New Jersey:

Booker - 58%
Bell - 40%

New Mexico:

Udall - 59%
Weh - 41%

North Carolina:

Hagan - 47%
Tillis - 46%

Oklahoma:

Inhofe - 65%
Silverstein - 34%

Oklahoma (S):

Lankford - 64%
Johnson - 35%

Oregon:

Merkley - 57%
Wehby - 41%

Rhode Island:

Reed - 67%
Zaccaria - 33%

South Carolina:

Graham - 57%
Hutto - 42%

South Carolina (S):

Scott - 58%
Dickerson - 41%

South Dakota

Rounds - 46%
Weiland - 32%
Pressler - 22%

Tennessee:

Alexander - 63%
Ball - 35%

Texas:

Cornyn - 58%
Alameel - 40%

Virginia:

Warner - 58%
Gillespie - 38%

West Virginia:

Capito - 57%
Tennant - 42%

Wyoming:

Enzi - 70%
Hardy - 29%

*Assuming Taylor stays on the ballot
**Both the pre-runoff and runoff results

Profile Prediction (probably need to update this as well) (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515)

Net Gain R+6, realistic gain is anywhere from 4 to 8. Recent moves: SD from Safe to Likely. WV from Likely to Safe. IA from Lean D to toss-up. Sorry for the long list but likely I won't be updating again until October

Safe GOP (>98% Chance of Victory)
All unlisted GOP seats + Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota

Advantage GOP (60-98% Chance of Victory)
Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Tossup
Alaska*, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas*, Louisiana*

Advantage DEM
Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina

Safe DEM
All unlisted DEM seats

Asterisked seats would enter the colored category if additional polling information validated what scarce polling data is available.

Georgia would be in the tossup category due to Perdue's insignificant edge in polling, but the hurdle of a runoff works to Perdue's advantage (although I think the turnout difference between the general and the runoff would be far less pronounced than in 2008, when Obama was on the ballot in a presidential year)

Louisiana remains in the tossup category because Cassidy's current polling advantage is both unconfirmed by multiple sources and less than Manness's vote share. Given that it is uncertain whether Republicans will capture 5 or more seats on Election Day, I am not prepared to write off Landrieu's chances in a runoff. However, if Cassidy is truly ahead in the general election, it is hard to see Landrieu prevailing in a runoff, even if Republicans fall short of a majority.

Given my tendency to be slightly optimistic regarding Republican electoral chances (see my 2006, 2010, and 2012 predictions), I am inclined to assign the tossup seats without an asterisk next to them to the Democrats, if forced to choose.

Purple states

CO, NH, MI, IA, NC  Dem

KS indy pickup

Minimum seats Dem need for control is 47 without La and AK

For now I am calling it 47-3-50 & VP Biden breaks tie while La and Ga may head into runoff.

Update (2nd last one before 11/4)

Safe D: DE, HI (S), IL, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: NH
Lean D: NC
Toss-Up: AK, CO, IA, KS, LA
Lean R: AR, GA, KY, SD
Likely R: None
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK (S), SC, SC (S), TN, TX, WV, WY

Changes since last update:

MI: Likely D --> Safe D
MN: Likely D --> Safe D
NC: Toss-Up --> Lean D
CO: Lean D --> Toss-Up
AR: Toss-Up --> Lean R
SD: Likely R --> Lean R

Profile Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515)

Guesstimate of margins for competitive races:

Alaska:

Sullivan - 50%
Begich - 46%

Arkansas:

Cotton - 52%
Pryor - 47%

Colorado:

Udall - 49%
Gardner - 48%

Georgia:

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 45%

Iowa:

Ernst - 50%
Braley - 48%

Kansas:

Orman - 49%
Roberts - 46%

Kentucky:

McConnell - 53%
Grimes - 45%

Louisiana:

Landrieu - 44%
Cassidy - 36%
Maness - 11%

Cassidy - 51%
Landrieu - 49%

North Carolina:

Hagan - 48%
Tillis - 46%

South Dakota:

Rounds - 39%
Pressler - 32%
Weiland - 27%

For a net gain of R+6 or R+7 (depending on Orman), with 52 or 51 Republicans (with or without Orman) and 48 or 49 Democrats (with or without Orman).

Begich, Grimes and Weiland win.

53-47

My most hackish senate map

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July 2013

I remember back in 2013 when people were doubtful about Maine, Montana was assumed Democrat because #Schweitzer4Senate, West Virginia was assumed democrat because it never votes Republican for Congress, and all the other battlegrounds were assumed democratic because muh Incumbency (except for McConnell of course)

Good times.

Here's my newest map:

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The states I'm least certain about are IA, NH, KS

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Georgia: David Perdue (R) (Lean R HOLD)
Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Kansas: Greg Orman (I) (Tossup)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) (Lean R HOLD)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Maine: Susan Collins (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) (Safe R GAIN)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) (Safe R HOLD)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaneen (D) (Lean D HOLD)
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) (Safe D HOLD)
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) (Safe D HOLD)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) (Lean D HOLD)
Oklahoma (1): Jim Inhofe (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Oklahoma (2): James Lankford (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) (Safe D HOLD)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) (Safe D HOLD)
South Carolina (1): Lindsey Graham (R) (Safe R HOLD)
South Carolina (2): Tim Scott (R) (Safe R HOLD)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) (Lean R GAIN)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Texas: John Cornyn (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) (Safe D HOLD)
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) (Safe R HOLD)
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) (Safe R HOLD)

R+7

Composition of the 114th United States Senate:
Republican Party: 52 seats
Democratic Party: 45 seats
Independents: 3 seats

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SFinal prediction
51D/48/1

Begich def Sullivan 51/49 (hold)

Cotton def Pryor 53/47 (R pick up)

Udall def Gardner 52/48 (hold)

Durbin def Oberweis 60/40

Braley def Ernst 51/49 (hold)

Orman def Roberts 47/43  (pick up)

Landrieu def Cassidy 53/47 (hold)

Collins def Bellows 70/28

Peters def Land 53/47 (hold)

Daines def Curtis 63/37 (R pick up)

Shaheen def Brown 54/46

Hagen def Tillis 51/49 (hold)

Rounds def Weiland 50/29 (R pick up)

Capito def Tennant 55/45 (R pickup)

Wash in senate

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South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana are the only seats that I am 100% sure the Republicans will pick up. Gun to my head, I would give the Republicans a slight edge in Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa and Kansas and would probably give Michelle Nunn a very minuscule edge in Georgia however.

Stupid question, but is the prediction for GA and LA for the election now or for the run-off? Because my prediction is that the Democrats "win" both without breaking 50% but then lose the runoff. How should I enter the prediction in that scenario?

Read the description in the header of the prediction page (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php?action=step2):

Final Prediction

Lean D: NH, NC
Toss-Up: CO, IA, KS, GA
Lean R: AK, LA
Likely R: AR, KY, SD
Safe R: MT, WV

Changes since last prediction:

NH: Likely D --> Lean D
AK: Toss-Up --> Lean R
LA: Toss-Up --> Lean R
GA: Lean R --> Toss-Up
AR: Lean R --> Likely R
KY: Lean R --> Likely R
SD: Lean R --> Likely R

Margins for close states:


(Bolded = Incumbent)

Profile Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2775)

R+8 or R+7 (depending on Orman). Republicans take the senate with at least 52 seats.

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Final prediction: 51* Democrats, 49 Republicans

FINAL UPDATE:

Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) def. Mark Begich (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) def. Mark Pryor (D) LIKELY  R
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) def. Mark Udall (D) LEAN R
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) def. Kevin Wade SAFE D
Georgia: David Perdue (R) def. Michelle Nunn (D) TOSSUP/TILT R  R
Hawaii special: Brian Schatz (D) def. Campbell Cavaso (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) def. Nels Mitchell (D) SAFE R
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) def. Jim Oberweis (R) SAFE D
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) def. Bruce Baley (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Kansas: Greg Orman (I) def. Pat Roberts  (R)  TOSSUP /TILT I
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) def. Allison Lundergan Grimes (D) LIKELY  R
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) def. Mary Landrieau (D) LEAN R
Maine: Susan Collins (R) def. Shenna Bellows (D) SAFE R
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) def. Frank Addivinola (R) SAFE D
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) def. Terri Lynn Land (R) SAFE D
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) def. Mike McFadden SAFE D (R)
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) def. Travis Childers (D) SAFE R
Montana: Steve Daines (R) def. Amanda Curtis (D) SAFE R
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) def. Dave Domina (D) SAFE R
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) def. Scott Brown (R) SAFE D
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) def. Jeff Bell (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) def. Allen Weh (R) SAFE D
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) def. Thom Tillis (R) LEAN D
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) def. Matt Silverstein (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma special: James Lankford (R) def. Constance Johnson (D) SAFE R
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) def. Monica Wehby (R) SAFE D
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) def. Mark Zaccaria (R) SAFE D
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) def. Brad Hutty (D) SAFE R
South Carolina special: Tim Scott (R) def. Joyce Dickerson (D) SAFE R
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) def. Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) LIKELY  R
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) def. Terry Adams (D) SAFE R
Texas: John Cornyn (R) def. Dabid Alameel (D) SAFE R
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) def. Ed Gillespie (R) SAFE D
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) def Natalie Tennent (D) SAFE R
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) def. Charlie Hardy (D) SAFE R

For a net gain of R+7/8, depending on how Orman cacuses

AL: Jeff Sessions (R) unopposed
*AK: Dan Sullivan (R) 49% (I) Mark Begich (D) 48% Others 2%
*AR: Tom Cotton (R) 53% (I) Mark Pryor (D) 44% Other 3%
*CO: Cory Gardner (R) 50% (I) Mark Udall (D) 48% Other 2%
DE: (I) Chris Coons (D) over 60%
GA: David Perdue (R) 49% Michelle Nunn (D) 47% Amanda Swafford (L) 4%. neither candidate breaks 50% GA goes to a January runoff.
HI: (I) Brian Schatz (D) over 60%
ID: (I) Jim Risch (R) over 60%
IL: (I) Dick Durbin (D) under 55%
*IA: Joni Ernst (R) 51% Bruce Braley (D) 47% Other 2%
*KS: Greg Orman (I) 49% (I) Pat Roberts (R) 47% Randall Batson (L) 4%
KY: (I) Mitch McConnell 54% Alison Grimes (D) 43% David Patterson (L) 3%
LA: (I) Mary Landrieu (D) 44% Bill Cassidy (R) 37% Rob Maness (R) 15% Other 4%. Landreiu and Cassidy advance to a December h2h runoff, where Cassidy has a decided advantage (this is the jungle primary).
ME: (I) Susan Collins (R) over 55%
MA: (I) Ed Markey (D) over 55%
MI: Gary Peters (D) over 55%
MN: (I) Al Franken (D) under 55%
MS: (I) Thad Cochran (R) over 55%
*MT: Steve Daines (R) over 55%
NE: Ben Sasse (R) over 55%
*NH: Scott Brown (R) 51% (I) Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49%
NJ: (I) Cory Booker (D) over 55%
NM: (I) Mark Udall (D) under 55%
NC: (I) Kay Hagan (D) 50% Thom Tillis (R) 46% Sean Haugh (L) 4%
OK and OK-special: (I) Jim Inhofe (R) over 60% and James Lankford (R) over 60%
OR: (I) Jeff Merkley (D) over 55%
RI: (I) Jack Reed (D) over 65%
SC and SC-special: (I) Lindsey Graham (R) under 55% Thomas Ravenel (I) over 5%, and (I) Tim Scott (R) over 60%
*SD: Mike Rounds (R) 45% Rick Weiland (D) 36% Larry Pressler (I) 15% Gordon Howie (I) 4%
TN: (I) Lamar Alexander (R) over 55%
TX: (I) John Cornyn (R) over 55%
VA: (I) Mark Warner (D) under 55%
*WV Shelley Moore Capito (R) over 55%
WY: (I) Mike Enzi (R) over 60%

Before Colorado, Kansas, Alaska and New Hampshire get counted, and before the GA and LA runoffs, I have the Senate 48-46 in favor of the GOP.

If Kansas goes to the Indie/Dem Orman as I predict, Alaska goes to Sullivan by a hair, and Colorado goes to Gardner, that makes it 50-47 GOP before the GA and LA runoffs. They only need to win one of NH, GA, LA to take Senate control.

I have Scott Brown in an upset, and then after the December and January runoffs in LA and GA both going to the GOP (Cassidy and Perdue will be favored) the final Senate result should be 53-47 in favor of the GOP, a six seat advantage.

Obviously in certain places votes are still being counted, but the results are pretty clear-cut now in nearly every race. I don't want to rush anyone, but when will we see scores and rankings?

We should probably wait for Louisiana to be over, if only for ceremonial purposes.

Wouldn't we have to wait until all results are certified before we get scores? For example, Jerry Brown is currently sitting at 59.9% with some more votes left to count, and it matters in our score whether we put >50% or >60%. Plus there's still the Louisiana runoff.