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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2013, 10:07:33 AM



Title: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2013, 10:07:33 AM
There will be a provincial by-election in the riding of Kent, NB on Monday.

2010 map:

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The riding is mostly Francophone, but has some rural Anglophone pockets. The 2010 map does not match the linguistic divide in the riding, though. The Tory areas in the SE are around Bouctouche, a French town. The two NDP polls are the Elsipogtog First Nation where the NDP candidate got more than half of her votes from with nearly 80% of the vote in each one. She is from that Reserve.

You can check out the area (federally) on the 506's site here: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/13002.php?e=2011

The Anglo areas in the riding are just south of the Elsipogtog FN, and went heavily Liberal in the provincial election, but voted Tory in the federal election. The coastal area was more Liberal.  The Anglo areas appear to of a Red Tory tradition, backing the PCs in 2000, but going Liberal in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 federal elections. The Bouctouche area has always been the most Conservative part of the riding, for reasons I have no clue.

Federally, the NDP also won the Elsipogtog First Nation with the same candidate they had provincially, and she won 89% of the vote there. The NDP has some history in the area, having won the riding (Beausejour) in the 1997 federal election- but the MP switched parties during her term. The NDP also won a poll in Bouctouche in 2011.

The Liberals are running their seat-less leader (Brian Gallant) in the riding as it has been vacated by their former leader, former Premier Shawn Graham. The NDP is running the same candidate, so expect big numbers from the FN vote again. The Tories are running Jimmy Bourque, a carpet bagger politico staffer.

The Liberals will most assuredly win, but I wonder if the NDP has a shot at 2nd?



Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2013, 11:05:56 AM
Correction, I'm doing some more research on the language areas of the riding, and the northern and western parts are the English areas (mostly sparsely populated, except for the village of Rexton in the north), while the southern areas are the Francophone regions. The reserve is Micmac speaking.

Basically the Richibucto Valley is Anglo, and the Bouctouche Valley is Franco.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 11, 2013, 11:29:38 AM
I wouldn't be that surprised by an NDP 2nd place finish.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Benj on April 11, 2013, 11:39:06 AM
The NDP is polling way up in New Brunswick from their 2010 numbers. I'd be surprised if they didn't take second. Tories are up, too, but they're clearly not taking this by-election seriously.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 11, 2013, 12:11:45 PM
The NDP is polling way up in New Brunswick from their 2010 numbers. I'd be surprised if they didn't take second. Tories are up, too, but they're clearly not taking this by-election seriously.

Interestingly, the last time there was a by-election in Kent, the NDP came 2nd :P


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2013, 12:56:37 PM
For interest's sake, I just calculated the approximate linguistic breakdown:

French: 55%
English: 33%
Mi'kmaq: 10%



Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2013, 01:06:38 PM
Another correction: The federal NDP poll in the Bouctouche area is another Micmac reserve, "Bouctouche 16". Provincial that reserve is in a much larger poll/precinct, and so the NDP votes there were likely diluted.

Interestingly, the third best NDP poll in the riding is the long one along the south shore of the Bouctouche River, where the NDP got 15%. The area was strong federally too for the NDP, getting about 26% there.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2013, 02:43:50 PM
The riding has a long Liberal history, electing only one Tory since 1917:

Results since 1917
3 members
P.J. Melanson, Liberal (1917-1925)
A.J. Bordage, Liberal (1917-1944)
A.A. Dysart, Liberal (1917-1940)
R.G. Richard, Liberal (1925-1930)
F.G. Richard, Liberal (1930-1939)
Isaie Melanson, Liberal (1939-1956)
J.K. McKee, Liberal (1940-1952)
Armand Richard, Liberal (1944-1952)
H.A. Dysart, Liberal (1952-1964)
L.J. Robichaud, Liberal (1952-1971)
A.F. Richard, Liberal (1956-1974)
Camille Bordage, Liberal (1964-1967)
Omer Leger, Prog. Cons. (1971-1974)
---
1 member after 1974
A.R. Graham, Liberal (1967-1998)
S.M. Graham, Liberal (1998-2013)

The Tory was one of just 3 members to boot. And the riding has been represented by a Graham since 1967. A lot of nepotism in this riding from some of the surnames...


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: the506 on April 12, 2013, 08:30:56 PM
The Liberals will probably win this thing, but it's not like the Tories and NDP aren't trying. The NDP candidate is the former Elsipogtog chief and the PCs are desperately trying to pin Graham's failures to Gallant.

And Gallant's personality seems exactly like Graham. Slick, slimy, sleazy. He may win Kent, but there's no way he'll win the province. As if Alward was any less incompetent, but that's a story for another thread.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 04:41:09 PM
Polls close at 7.

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/04/kent-by-election-in-new-brunswick.html


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 06:48:13 PM
This isn't going to be that close: (3/43 polls)

Jimmy BOURQUE   M    PC   81
Brian GALLANT   M    L   221
Susan LEVI-PETERS   F    NDP/NPD   71


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 06:52:38 PM
In %:
Lib: 39.2%
PC: 21.7%
NDP: 19.0%


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 06:53:59 PM
In %:
Lib: 39.2%
PC: 21.7%
NDP: 19.0%

The Liberal % is off.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:01:15 PM
Liberals up by 300 votes. Real race for 2nd, PCs ahead of the NDP by 3 votes. 7 polls in.

BTW, the 506  has poll maps of every NB riding here: http://the506.com/elxnmaps/NB2010/


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 07:05:37 PM

Indeed, that should read as 59.2%

10/43

Brian Gallant (Liberal) 771 votes (63,1%)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 227 votes (18,6%)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 223 votes (18,3%)


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 07:12:04 PM
15/43

Brian Gallant (Liberal) 1223 votes (64,7%)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 356 votes (18,8%)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 311 votes (16,5%)


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:19:01 PM
16 polls in

Jimmy BOURQUE   PC   325
Brian GALLANT   1276
Susan LEVI-PETERS   NDP/NPD   380


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: the506 on April 15, 2013, 07:23:58 PM
There's someone on twitter (a Liberal insider?) who's been posting poll-by-poll results from the scrutineers. Most of them have so far come from Graham's strongest areas in 2010.

Gallant's probably going to win, but expect the margin to go down.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:31:15 PM
There's someone on twitter (a Liberal insider?) who's been posting poll-by-poll results from the scrutineers. Most of them have so far come from Graham's strongest areas in 2010.

Gallant's probably going to win, but expect the margin to go down.

Cool.

I guess you are referring to @robihot.

All the polls he is reporting have gone Liberal.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:34:28 PM
He's got one of the Mikmaq Reserves going Liberal. Not believing him...


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 07:35:42 PM
24/43

Brian Gallant (Liberal) 1836 votes (63,3%)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 594 votes (20,5%)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 469 votes (16,2%)


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 07:36:23 PM
He's got one of the Mikmaq Reserves going Liberal. Not believing him...

Well, one heavily NDP poll just passed, NDP jumped by 2%.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:38:26 PM
Well, scrutineers are usually ahead of the Elections people, so I don't know which one passed. Maybe he got the Lib and NDP numbers reversed for that Mikmaq poll.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:40:34 PM
Oh, he was mistaken, it was poll 2. Still not reporting anything but Liberal polls so far.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: the506 on April 15, 2013, 07:40:49 PM
He's got one of the Mikmaq Reserves going Liberal. Not believing him...

Think he had the wrong poll number.

The NB Liberal Party is also tweeting pxp results.

EDIT: interesting to note that in a couple polls near Bouctouche, the Liberal vote has gone *up*. Still nothing from the actual town which went PC.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:46:43 PM
I bet you're putting this data into a spreadsheet, no? I bet you'll have a map ready in no time!


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 07:53:10 PM
31/43

Brian Gallant (Liberal) 2727 votes (61,5%)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 1023 votes (23,1%)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 682 votes (15,4%)


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 07:54:54 PM
Wow. Not bad. NDP did really well in one of the advance polls. Still no wins yet.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 07:59:24 PM
Wow. Not bad. NDP did really well in one of the advance polls. Still no wins yet.

I know counting isn't finished, but that's a terrible result for the PC.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 08:06:09 PM
Yes. Wasn't the prediction from the beginning that the NDP would place 2nd?


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 08:11:03 PM
Surprised that the Liberals are making gains from 2010. And, at the expense of just the Tories.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 08:21:05 PM
41/43

Brian Gallant (Liberal) 3317 votes (58,3%)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 1570 votes (27,6%)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 799 votes (14,1%)


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 08:26:19 PM
One more poll to go.
Jimmy BOURQUE    PC   821
Brian GALLANT              L   3454
Susan LEVI-PETERS   NDP/NPD   1600


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 08:36:26 PM
Final:

Jimmy BOURQUE   M    PC   837
Brian GALLANT   M    L   3543
Susan LEVI-PETERS   F    NDP/NPD   1615


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 08:46:46 PM
FINAL
Brian Gallant (Liberal) 3543 votes (59,1%) (+3.4)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 1615 votes (26,9%) (+11.6)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 837 votes (14,0%) (-11.7)


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 08:50:34 PM
Those swings would give Liberal 38, PC 37, NDP 22 at provincial level. 


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2013, 08:51:26 PM
Turnout was 69.5% WTF


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 15, 2013, 08:56:04 PM

It was 77.5% in 2010.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Benj on April 15, 2013, 09:06:58 PM
Those swings would give Liberal 38, PC 37, NDP 22 at provincial level. 

Which is pretty much exactly where the polls are, incidentally.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: DL on April 16, 2013, 10:57:21 AM
There have now been two byelections in New Brunswick since the 2010 election. Kent last night and Rothesay last June. The ridings are very very different from one another, but in both cases the pattern was for the Tory vote to crash, the Liberal vote to hold steady and for the NDP to go way up from low teens to high 20s...

I think at the very least it is fair to say that New Brunswick is becoming a party with a three party political system and one consequence of the NDP making such credible showings in these byelections is that between this and the latest polling numbers - the media is now starting to treat the NDP as one of the "big three" in a way they never did before. In the 2010 election the moment the writ dropped the media coverage made it out to be the traditional "Hatfields vs. the McCoys" Tory vs Grit run-off with the NDP treated as a fringe party along side the Greens and the so-called Peoples Alliance...that will not be the case in 2014.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 16, 2013, 02:00:27 PM
Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: minionofmidas on April 16, 2013, 02:10:10 PM
I love how small these ridings are.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: the506 on April 16, 2013, 02:14:14 PM

Look at PEI.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: DL on April 16, 2013, 02:16:01 PM
Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

An essential ingredient to winning seats in 2014 is for the NB NDP to be seen as a serious player by the local media...that rubicon has been crossed. It it is one factor that is necessary (though not sufficient) to win seats.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: minionofmidas on April 16, 2013, 02:20:49 PM
I tried, but their ridings are too small to see without a microscope!


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: the506 on April 16, 2013, 02:21:14 PM
Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

And that's the problem. The NDP surge won't mean a thing if all it means is they finish a stronger 3rd in every riding instead of a weak 3rd. Gotta love FPTP.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: DL on April 16, 2013, 02:31:17 PM
Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

And that's the problem. The NDP surge won't mean a thing if all it means is they finish a stronger 3rd in every riding instead of a weak 3rd. Gotta love FPTP.

Rothesay and Kent are two of the least winnable and most inhospitable ridings in all of NB for the NDP. If they can make a strong high 20s showing in those ridings - it means that they ought to be very much in contention in ridings in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton where there is already an NDP base to build on and where there will be more three-way races.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: Smid on April 16, 2013, 07:28:53 PM
DL, don't forget Bathurst.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: MaxQue on April 16, 2013, 07:40:59 PM

The NDP doesn't have really strenght there, it polled wellbecause the leader last time was Acadian. NDP federal numbers in that area didn't translate into results provincially (because that's a personal vote for Yvon Godin, through I suppose NDP got some roots, with the time).

Anyways, with ridings that small, swinging votes with a good candidate is easier and at 20+%, NDP is poised to win seats somewhere (I would guess in Saint John Harbour, first).

Anyways, they should win a seat as soon there is a by-election in a NDP-friendly seat, which Rothesay (suburbs of Saint John) and Kent (ruralish area) weren't.

Don't forget than there is redistricting, too, so seats won't be the same next time.


Title: Re: Kent by-election
Post by: adma on April 16, 2013, 09:13:29 PM
In the 2010 election the moment the writ dropped the media coverage made it out to be the traditional "Hatfields vs. the McCoys" Tory vs Grit run-off with the NDP treated as a fringe party along side the Greens and the so-called Peoples Alliance...that will not be the case in 2014.

This being New Brunswick, tee-hee on the "Hatfields" ref.