Talk Elections

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Time to do this again.

Jeb Bush if he runs.

If not, probably Rubio or Christie, possibly Portman or Huntsman.

Paul Ryan

I think either Christie or Paul. I think Christie will be the establishment choice after Rubio ends up being a flop (which I think he will). Paul will be the conservative grassroots choice. I have a difficult time, at this point at least, seeing the nominee being someone else.

The probable results of the initial primaries and caucuses should be looked at:

Iowa-Paul or Santorum
New Hampshire- Bush (if running), Christie or Huntsman
South Carolina-Bush (if running), Rubio or Paul
Florida-Bush (if running), Rubio

Ftr, I voted Rubio in this poll, though obviously he's not the strongest frontrunner in the world and it's very early.  Christie and Paul also in the mix, though of course they're both very flawed candidates as well.

The sleeper of the moment (and now probably up to #4 in likelihood of winning the nomination in my book) is Scott Walker.  Definitely looking stronger in recent weeks/months, if only because the other potential candidates are looking a bit less impressive.  And Walker's recent travel schedule strongly suggests that he intends to run as long as Paul Ryan doesn't.

I voted Rubio in the last poll, but his star is rapidly fading. His immigration push hasn't been good for him - not, as many pundits claim, because he's losing conservative credibility, but because he's losing his (undeserved) reputation for being a skilled and effective politician.

Went with Christie this time, although I suspect that we'd all be talking about Walker were we not preoccupied with Ryan (whose putative candidacy is, in my view, a red herring).

Christie. The conservative wing is too crowded right now, but I expect that to sort itself out. The primary will be carnage.

Rubio or Christie.

Christie

Jeb Bush.  Social conservatives may be wary of Christie, and Bush would be more electable than Rubio.

Rubio, Paul, and Christie, in that order.

I'm rather sure it'll be Christie. The thing is, the GOP would be ridiculous not to choose him. So that means they probably won't.

Also, I do still see a path for my girl. It's narrow, but it's there.

Depends which righties run, but for now Rubio, Christie ... ... Paul. Though I'm hoping none of the above.

I don't see why everybody thinks Jeb is so electable, considering how hated his brother is.

Anyway, I think it will be Christie or Rubio.

Christie.

It's likelier that he'll run than that Rubio will run. Rubio may back Jeb.

And he has less competition among the more moderate primary voters that supported Romney in 2012, and McCain in 2000 and 2008.

Rand Paul's views are likely to divide primary voters. He has a shot, but I would rate him below Christie, Rubio and Ryan.

Indeed. But fascinating and extremely fun to watch. Hopefully they'll be a decent Intrade replacement up somewhere by then.

I think Christie still has the best shot, but his chances have lessened in recent months. Once he's been re-elected and can start focusing on a Presidential run, I expect him to shift to the right a bit in an effort to appease conservatives, and thus, will end up in a similar position to where Romney was in 2011, though he'll face stronger opposition than Romney did.

1. Christie
2. Rubio
3. Bush
4. Martinez/Paul
5. Other...

Rubio.

Even though there's lots of hate for him on the far-right, I went with Christie.

How does Christie even have a chance anymore?

The vote split will help Christie rise to the top of a crowded field. By the time the momentum builds for one alternative, he'll have a huge lead and be unstoppable. He'll likely be forced to pick a right-wing VP, but he's the easy favorite.

Too early to say. Gut feel says that Christie is too unpopular with the Right to win, but if the invisible primary doesn't take it toll, he may be hard to stop.

Christie is the most likely nominee/not likely to be the nominee.

Or Christie is the Huntsman of 2016.

I think it's gonna be between Rubio, Christie, Santorum, and Jeb Bush.

He doesn't. He's worse off than Rubio. Both are being blasted from the right.

Didn't vote since it's too far out but my gut says a Republican governor that's not Chris Christie. The senators have too much baggage since every vote they make is scrutinized now.

He seems to have advantages Huntsman didn't.

He starts as the top candidate in his category, while Huntsman had to compete with Romney.

He starts with higher name recognition.

And he's an impressive presence. At the very least, we're likely to get some good town hall videos with Christie.

This is probably true. With a potentially crowded field, there is no Republican with a better than even chance of being the nominee.

I still say Christie. I just have a hard time seeing the right-wing of the party being able to unite behind one candidate, and as it happened in '08 and '12, I think electability will trump ideological purity once again.

Rand Paul or Marco Rubio.

Christie will never be accepted by the primary voters, at least not without taking away everything that makes him appealing in the general election.

I think Rubio is most likely, but I think I would take the field over Rubio. Something just tells me that he is going to fall out of this frontrunner status for one reason or another.

I would like to say it is going to be Christie, because he is probably the GOP's best shot at the White House, but he is not conservative enough for the primary voters. Romney had the benefit of some Democrats voting in the Republican primaries, since the Dem. primary was a given. Christie shouldn't have that luxury. The base doesn't look like its too willing to move left, so that rules out Christie.

Paul is too libertarian for the ones controlling the money.

I really think the candidate will end up being one of the much less currently talked about possibilities (not any of the 2012 candidates, Bush, Ryan, etc.). Voters might not want a candidate who has been a face of the GOP through such an unpopular time for the party. Look for someone like Thune, Walker, Portman, or Kasich to come in as a "fresh face".

Right now I would have to say Christie.  Rubio is intriguing, but I just can't see this immigration deal working out for him, nothing is going to pass and he will be severely weakened because of it.  Ryan is too young and not going to fire up the base.  Paul is gaining steam I think, and he is a lot more electable now than I ever would have thought initially after his Senate election.  However, Christie will be able to rally moderates and the establishment, so right now I see him as most likely. (Of course this will probably change a million times in the coming months)

How many Republicans are even better than even to run? I'd say Santorum, Paul, maybe Cruz and that's it. I don't think any Republican is much higher than 10% to be nominee or will be until 2015.

Voted Rubio, but I think Paul has a real shot.

Chris Christie will be the Rudy Giuliani of 2016, IMHO.

Jeb Bush has a toxic last name. Two failed Presidents in the family aren't going to do him any favors with the general public.

Christie has completely alienated the right-wing of the party.

My money is on Scott Walker.

I'd say Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum are more likely than not to run

Rick Santorum is close to certain, barring health issues. Followed by Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal. And then Rand Paul at something like 75% likelihood of running.

Paul Ryan's numbers have taken a beating, although he handled himself well enough as a Veep candidate. And you don't agree to the spot unless you're really ambitious.

I don't see immigration as a major issue for Rubio, but there is the Jeb question. There's probably a 40% chance he decides to sit out 2016.

Cruz has been making some moves, and the far right likes him. But it isn't clear how he'll hold up to national scrutiny.

Christie eventually. Things look incredibly bleak now, but after Rubio, Paul, Santorum, Cruz, all these other candidates collapse, Christie will end up being a winner. Though, again, I would not count out Scott Walker, who seems to have his head on straight, not prone to immense flip flopping, nor does he seem prone to huge gaffes like some of these other candidates are.

There will be the thread of nominating someone who is fringe but the GOP will eventually come to support of an establishment choice.