Talk Elections

...president of the United States?
...chancellor of Germany?
...president of France?
...prime minister of the UK?
...prime minister of Canada?
...prime minister of Australia?

???

Other than the bolded, the others look reasonable.  Though 1) Isn't Merkel going to retire at some point?  She's really going to be chancellor for 11+ years?  2) I don't know that Abbott will last that long, given how frequent party coups have become in recent years here in Oz.  Maybe he'll get replaced by Joe Hockey or something by then.

Harper, not Cameron (doubt the Canadians would want British leftovers ;) ) I think Merkel will accept one more term.
I really, really hope somebody will oust Abbott, but since he is the current Liberal leader he is the most realistic bid.

...president of the United States? - The Democrat
...chancellor of Germany? - The Christian Democrat
...president of France? - Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? - The leader of the Conservative Party
...prime minister of Canada? - Sexy Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? - Tony Abbott

...prime minister of Scotland - Nicola Sturgeon ;)

...president of the United States? - Hillary Clinton (Defeated Rand Paul by a margin of 379-159 in the electoral college and 54-45 in the popular vote)
...chancellor of Germany? - Angela Merkel (But soon to retire. Won the 2013 election easily.)
...president of France? - Francois Hollande (Narrowly defeated Nicolas Sarkozy again by a margin of 50.5-49.5)
...prime minister of the UK? - Ed Miliband (Labour won a majority of around 30 seats in 2015.)
...prime minister of Canada? - Justin Trudeau (But only in a minority government.)
...prime minister of Australia? - Joe Hockey (Coalition easily won the 2013 and 2016 elections but Abbott was ousted in early 2017. Replaced by his Treasurer Joe Hockey.)

President: Republican
Chancellor: Angela Merkel
President: UMP
UK PM: Ed Miliband
Canadian PM: Stephen Harper
Aussie PM: Tony Abbott

Hillary Clinton as US president working with Ed Miliband as UK PM could be interesting, given Hillary's feelings for Ed's brother:  ;)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/17/hillary-clinton-david-miliband-interview

Not to mention the rumor that the Clintons helped David land that charity job in New York.

()

President: Andrew Cuomo
Chancellor: Angela Merkel
President: UMP guy
UK PM: Ed Miliband
Canadian PM: Stephen Harper
Aussie PM: Tony Abbott

...president of the United States? Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Merkel, I guess
...president of France? Dunno. Lean Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Milliband
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau, maybe? *cringes*
...prime minister of Australia? Abbott I guess.

...president of the United States? Chris Christie
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? *pleasegodnotcopépleasepleaseplease*
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Some Labor guy, hoping Abbot gets ousted after one term...

...president of the United States? Whoever the Democrats choose.
...chancellor of Germany? Merkel
...president of France? Whoever the UMP choose.
...prime minister of the UK? Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Harper
...prime minister of Australia? Abbott

These are basically "what polls show now"; obviously, things will change and these will look hilarious in the actual 2017.

...president of the United States? Paul Ryan
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? François Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper  (())
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott

US: Hilary Clinton
Germany: Merkel, but she is retiring at the 2017 election later in the year
France: François Fillon, but I must say thinks are pretty unclear (Copé, Sarkozy, Hollande are possible, Le Pen if things get ugly for PS and UMP explodes since then).
UK: Ed Milibrand
Canada: Justin Trudeau, ugh
Australia: Abbott (but he might be victim of a leadership spill or just lose to Labor in 2016)

How does it work in Germany?  Is there actually precedent for a party leader who's retiring of his/her own volition to step down at the election, and not months/years beforehand, so as to give her successor a running start, a la the Blair/Brown transition in the UK?

German chancellors (especially CDU ones) have the awful tendency to stick around forever.

I think Merkel is going to break Adenauers record.

I think BILD reported a couple of weeks ago that Merkel plans to step down sometime around the middle of her next term. This was quickly denied by her. Afterwards, everbody was going like "oh crap, now we're stuck with her forever... thanks BILD! :P "

a few longshot bets:

Hillary Clinton
Thomas de Maizière
Marine Le Pen
Ed Milliband
Stephen Harper
Julia Gillard

...president of the United States? Chris Christie (Republican)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (CDU)
...president of France? Jean-Francois Cope (UMP)
...prime minister of the UK? David Cameron (Conservative)
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper (Conservative)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott (Liberal)

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (CDU)
...president of France? Francis Hollande (Socialist)
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Milliband (Labor)
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper (Conservative)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbot (Liberal)

2015 EDIT: Talk about having an egg on my face!
EDIT AGAIN: Oh God, now I'm wrong about Canada.
2016 EDIT: Eff it, no more predictions. Ed Milliband went down in flames, Theresa May is the second female Prime Minister, and sweet Jesus the President is talking cheeto who used to host a tacky reality show.

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (CDU)
...president of France? Francois Hollande (Socialist)
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Milliband (Labor)
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (Liberal)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott (Liberal)

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (CDU)
...president of France? Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)
...prime minister of the UK? David Cameron (Conservative)
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper (Conservative)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott (Liberal)

Clinton
Merkel
Hollande
Milliband
Harper
Abbott

Don't really know enough about Germany and France, so they're a little up in the air.

Just like reading through the 2004 threads where John Edwards was cited as the "future of the Democratic Party." ;)

...president of the United States? Ermm... I don't really know, perhaps Hillary Clinton?
...chancellor of Germany? Peer Steinbruck?
...president of France? definitely Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Thomas Mulcair (no way to Justin Trudeau I dont wanna him become PM!)
...prime minister of Australia? either Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott?

Damaged goods due to the ongoing Euro Hawk scandal. Right now, he's struggling to remain defense minister.




Steinbrück just had to fire his spokesman and is busy denying rumours (which are probably true) that his own party chairman thinks of him as a loser. Mitt Romney had a better chance of winning at this point in 2012 than Steinbrück has now.

Who are some up-and-coming CDU or opposition leaders who would make some Chancellors down the road, once Merkel quits?

During her first years in office, Merkel has been very effective in side-lining any potential rivals inside the CDU like Lower Saxony PM Wulff, or Hessen PM Koch.  More recently, voters have done that job for her (David McAllister in Lower Saxony, Norbert Röttgen in North-Rhine Westfalia). Ursula von der Leyen (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_von_der_Leyen), currently Federal Minister of Labour, and daughter of former Lower Saxony PM Ernst Albrecht, has for a long time been high on the list of possible successors, but seems to have been falling out of favour after publicly criticising the CDU's family policy as being too conservative.
There have been quite a number of press articles in Germany about the obvious lack of leadership alternatives to Merkel (and other party seniors like, e.g., Schäuble) within the CDU. As concerns State PMs, among which Chancellors are typically recruited, the CDU has lost most major states (Hessen is likely to follow this autumn), and currently only governs Saarland, Thuringia, Sachsen-Anhalt and Saxony. Saxony PM Stanislaw Tillich (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislaw_Tillich) would probably have the best chances from that field. There is of course Bavaria and the CSU, but after two CSU candidates (Strauss in 1980, Stoiber in 2002) losing seemingly 'safe' federal elections, I doubt the CDU will give it a third try.

As concerns the SPD, party leader Sigmar Gabriel combines great political talent with the charisma of a sand bag. He could have become candidate for the upcoming election, but denied, so I wonder whether he would run in 2017. Inside the SPD, there are great hopes on North-Rhine Westfalia's PM Hannelore Kraft  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannelore_Kraft), but she has repeatedly denied any ambitions for chancellorship. Otherwise, from the field of State PM's, Hamburg Mayor and former party secretary Olaf Scholz  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olaf_Scholz) might have ambition, potential and networks, provided he wins his next election in Hamburg. Wowereit (Berlin) and Platzeck (Brandenburg) are most likely linked too much to the Berlin-Brandenburg airport mess to have any chances, while most other SPD PMs have not been in office for long enough to be considered for chancellorship.

And here is the substitute's benches:

()

Ronald Pofalla (* 1959), former CDU Secretary General and now Merkel's Chief of Staff.  Kind of the Steinbrück type, has been attacking some CDU colleagues quite rudely, so he might not even be able to shore up enough support within the CDU. In any case, rather a good number two than a frontman, and also a bit old to be the party's hope for the future.

()
Kristina Schrüder (* 1977), Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Women and Youth. Obviously being built up by Merkel (that Ministry used to be her first Cabinet post as well), but Schröder seems to lack the class that her predecessor, Ursula von der Leyen, undoubtedly possesses. Has not come out with any significant policy proposal during her nearly four years in office.

()
Manuela Schwesig (* 1974), Deputy Chairwoman of the Federal SPD (one out of five), and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Minister of Labour and Social Affairs.  The SPD's answer to Kristina Schroder. Haven't noticed much of her so far, but with a master degree in public finance, she should be able to work beyond the traditional "family, youth & women" focus. In Peer Steinbrück's 'shadow cabinet', she is responsible for reconstruction / development of East Germany.

()
Andrea Nahles (* 1970), SPD Secretary General since 2009. Strong critic of the Schroder government's social security reforms, with acceptance problems in the general public (too 'left', too 'feminist'). Probably similar to Pofalla - good number two, but no front-woman.

()
Hubertus Heil (*1972), SPD Secretary General from 2005 to 2009, and now Deputy parliamentary whip. Sigmar Gabriel's protégé, with similar political talent and charisma.

()
Aydan Özoğuz (* 1967), Deputy Chairwoman of the Federal SPD, Bundestag member since 2009, married to Hamburg Senator (State Minister) of Internal Affairs Michael Neumann.  Olaf Scholz's protégé. Quite a long shot, as two of her brothers are being linked to Islamist groups.

...president of the United States? - Rand Paul [/hack]
...chancellor of Germany? - SPD guy/gal
...president of France? - The Sark
...prime minister of the UK? - Seriously: Miliband, non-seriously: Farage
...prime minister of Canada? - Harper
...prime minister of Australia? - Tony Abbott

In all likelihood, Merkel prefers Ursula von der Leyen as her successor.

Then again, she'd already tried to hand von der Leyen the presidency of Germany in 2010 and this was vetoed by the CDU state bosses who wanted a more conventional "CDU-esque" choice (and look how well that turned out :P ). So it all depends on how much grip Merkel will have over her own party when she retires.

I suppose David McAllister still seems like a strong option provided that he'll enter Merkel's cabinet after the election. So far he plans to run for the European parliament in 2014 though which is more of dead end.

I thought McAllister was the CDU Crownprince?

A bunch of neoliberals, obviously.

And I want to retract my former prediction of Chris Christie. It'll more likely be Scott Walker.

Only if he wants it to be... and frankly, so far he doesn't seem to have made up his mind.

That's looking like quite a longshot right now.  :P

...president of the United States? - Clinton
...chancellor of Austria? - Faymann
...chancellor of Germany? - Merkel
...president of France? - Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? - Cameron
...prime minister of Canada? - Harper
...prime minister of Australia? - Rudd

Probably
...president of the United States? Chris Christie, narrowly (Republican), will win re-election
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (CDU),comfortbly, and will retire in 4 more years
...president of France? Franciose Hollande (PS), will narrowly win re-election
...prime minister of the UK? Narrowly, David Cameron or whoever succeeds him (Conservative)
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper, narrowly (Conservative)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott, about to be defeated or replaced (Liberal)

*bump*


Nope.  Looks like that won't happen.  :P

Looks like Shorten is the favorite to be the next Labor leader, so he'd presumably then be the favorite to be the PM in four years if Labor wins the next election, but time will tell.

Who knows? He might lose and retake the ALP leadership 15 times before the 2016 election, and might well win them anyway. :P

US President - Republican
Chancellor of Germany: Angela Merkel
President of France: UMP
UK PM: Ed Miliband
Canadian PM: Stephen Harper
Aussie PM: Tony Abbott

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnball

*bump*

Shorten looking like a decent bet for Australian PM.

If nothing else, I believe the reformed procedure for selecting ALP party leader makes it hard for Shorten to be replaced before the next election.  Whereas I don't think there have been any corresponding reforms on the other side of the aisle, leaving Abbott vulnerable to a coup in the event that things get really bad.

Also, Hollande is looking like a shakier prospect for president of France.

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton (most likely anyway. All the prospective Republicans don't quite seem strong enough right now, the only one who has a real shot is Walker)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (or whoever her replacement is in the CDU, they'll probably have the edge in German politics for a long time)
...president of France? Whoever the UMP nominate (that's right, I think Hollande is f[Inks]ed)
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Milliband (won't rule out Cameron though, he's still fairly popular personally IIRC whereas Milliband isn't)
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper (though I suspect Harper might consider giving up the gun. Not convinced on Trudeau jnr. just yet)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott (unpopular sure, but his majority is pretty big and I don't see enough stomach for a coup given how Labor's second term went)

I would change 3 things.
France would be Copé.
Australia would be Shorten.
Germany would be Van der Leyden (since Merkel would have retired at 2017 election).

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? David Cameron
...prime minister of Canada? Rob Ford (I wish :))
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (eugh)
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnball

No, Angela Merkel won't be Chancellor four years from now. It's an open secret that she intends to retire by 2017 at the latest and is already setting up Urusla von der Leyen as her hand-picked successor.

She's already working on an exit.

I totaly disagree with you on that. Nobody knows whether Merkel will retire by 2017 and von der Leyen is very unpopular in her own party. I'd rather say Thomas de Maizière will be the next Chancellor either 2017 or 2019.

POTUS: ?
Chancellor of Germany: CDU ?
France: Nicolas Sarkozy
UK PM: David Cameron
Canada: Stephen Harper
Australia: Tony Abbott

...president of the United States? Betting on Jeb Bush now. I still have a hard time seeing the Dems win for a third time in a row.
...chancellor of Germany? At this point, it's anybody's guess. If Hannelore Kraft is in, I believe she has a decent shot in 2017.
...president of France? Jean-François Copé seems the most likey... Let's brace ourselves.
...prime minister of the UK? Still believe in Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Why not Bill Shorten then?

If Jeb Bush were the nominee, he'd have a shot at winning, but I just don't see how he could make it thru the primaries.  The GOP is still in denial that their message played at least as great a role in their loss in 2012 as their messenger did.  Their stance on social issues plays well with their base, but loses in a national general election.  By 2016, they won't be able to successfully run nationally on repealing the ACA, and while they might be able to run in the general election on replacing it, their base in the primaries and their safe Congressional seats is still going to insist on repeal.  It looks doubtful that the economy will take a severe enough turn to the worse to give the GOP enough traction on economic issues to win the White House running on those.

Australia- Prime Minister; While I think the Liberal Party will remain in power for the next four years  I find it unlikely that Tony Abbott will be Prime Minister in four years. My guess is the next Prime Minister will be Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop, New South Wales Liberal Party Leader Mike Baird Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Education Minister Christopher Pyne or Health Minister Peter Dutton


Canada- Prime Minister; I'm probably not going out on much of a limb here... but I'm pretty certain Thomas Mulcair the next Prime Minister of Canada.

U.K Prime Minister- David Cameron loses his coalition partners but picks up enough seats on his own to hang on.

France- President; Nicolas Sarkozy

Germany- Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel

President of the United States; If Hillary Clinton is the Democrats nominee they win. Otherwise the Republicans could nominate Vidkun Quisling and win.

Seriously, do you understand how the Australian system works?

He a troll.

Maybe its better that NYE stick to spamming news articles after all...

Why is Sarkozy red?

Wow.


UK : Ed Miliband
USA : Hilary Clinton
France: Jean-François Copé, probably
Germany: I wouldn't surprised if it was still Merkel.
Australia: Bill Shorten

Bonus:

Japan: Shinzo Abe
New Zealand: John Key

and Canada?

Whoops forgot about you guys.

My guess is most likely Trudeau, but anything can happen what with redistributions and left wing splitters and Trudeau potentially messing up.

*bump*

Things are getting interesting in the English-speaking Commonwealth countries re: who might be head of government one year from now, let alone four years from now.

...president of the United States? Jeb Bush
...chancellor of Germany? Hannelore Kraft
...president of France? Alain Juppé
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Hannelore Kraft
...president of France? Marine le Pen
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten

...president of the United States? Scott Walker
...chancellor of Germany? Hannelore Kraft
...president of France? Nicholas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Alan Johnson
...prime minister of Australia? Annastacia Palaszczuk
...prime minister of Canada? Thomas Mulcair

US: Scott Walker
Germany: Some rando CDU person
France: Sarkozy
UK: Cameron
Canada: Trudeau
Australia: Bill Shorten

...president of the United States? Scott Walker
...chancellor of Germany? Someone from the SPD
...president of France? Marine Le Pen
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Milliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Someone from the ALP

I'll change France to Sarkozy and Australia to Shorten.

...chancellor of Austria? Reinhold Mitterlehner or Sebastian Kurz
...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel or someone else from the CDU
...president of France? Alain Juppé
...prime minister of the UK? David Cameron will be re-elected
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper will be re-elected
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

...president of the United States? Scott Walker
...chancellor of Germany? Hannelore Kraft
...president of France? Nicholas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau

Marine LePen will never be elected President of France.

N.E.V.E.R

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This.

I think it is fairly certain she will reach the second round. If her opponent is Sarkozy turnout could get really low and le Pen would be favoured in that scenario.

There'd  be some sort of Union Sacrée against her. If not officially, at least in people's heads.

Especially if the economy crashes again in the next year or so.

I won't say "never", but she almost certainly won't win in 2017.

I would have thought going up against someone as hated as Sarkozy would be her big chance.

Low turnout and possibly even left-wing support could help her do pretty well (perhaps as much as 45%) but the share of people who would never support her is still slightly above 50% at this point. Come 2022, anything will be possible.

POTUS: Jeb Bush
Chancellor of Germany: Angela Merkel (or Ursula von der Leyen)
France: Nicolas Sarkozy
UK PM: Ed Miliband
Canada: Justin Trudeau
Australia: ALP

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Hannelore Kraft
...president of France? Nicholas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau

There sure is a lot of Hannelore Kraft hype going on here. The thing is, she probably won't even be the SPD's chancellor-candidate. Sigmar Gabriel is the most likely bet. Gabriel probably won't form a coalition with the Left though (neither it is assured that Kraft would for that matter) and the SPD surely won't become stronger than CDU/CSU in parliament.

So, the best the SPD can hope for is becoming junior partner in a Grand coalition again. Although a CDU/Green coalition is certainly also a strong possibility for 2017. Probably not with Merkel though. Scuttblebutt is that she wants out and even had to deny past reports that she plans to retire prior to the 2017 election.

Appointing Ursula van der Leyen as defense minister was also widely interpreted as an attempt to build up a successor, even though von der Leyen has come under criticism for a mediocre performance as head of the defense ministry lately. So vdL is not the shoo-in anymore she was once considered. Thomas de Maizière is another possibility. He's widely regarded as competent, but he's also boring as hell (inoffensive, uncharismatic, centrist technocrat :P ).

Is there anyone within the CDU openly campaigning to succeed Merkel, or are they keeping a low profile for now?

...president of the United States? Jeb Bush
...chancellor of Germany? Ursula von der Leyen
...president of France? Nicholas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
...prime minister of Australia? Julie Bishop
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper

Not really. Mostly because Merkel will decide when she retires and she will have a lot to say on who is going to succeed her, pending approval by the CDU's executive committee. Ursula von der Leyen is basically the heir apparent, but in order to keep that position she'll have to do a good job as defense minister (so far, her performance is seen as a mixed bag though). Thomas de Maizière is considered next in line after VdL, but he seems to lack the ambition to actively pursue the office of the Chancellor, so he's more of a backup if nobody else steps in or if the person who steps in is vetoed by one the party's wings.

This thread is depressing.

This prediction is only a week old, and is already on life support.  :P

It was already on life support when he made the prediction.

True.  But it's now more on life support than it was a week ago.

*bump*

OK, so it looks like Miliband isn't going to happen.

:(

Well there's one wrong.

And at the risk of sounding like Talleyrand, I suspect by 2019, we may have wall-to-wall Conservative governments across all six countries.

Pretty sure Shorten will get Milibanded, now.

President of the United States: Hillary Clinton
Chancellor of Germany: I really don't know
President of France: Nicolas Sarkozy
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson
Prime Minister of Australia: Malcolm Turnbull
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

USA: the bum end of a terminally unpopular Scott Walker Presidency.

UK: David Cameron, ready to hand over to Theresa May.

Australia: Whatever ALP weirdo decides to knife Shorten. Maybe plibersek.

Canada: I'm going to go off on a curveball and suggest Thomas Mulcair

France: Alain Juppe. Hopefully Sarko will be in prison.

Germany: Hannelore Kraft

Spain: Pedro Sanchez (tenuously)

Italy: Matteo Renzi

Ireland: Enda Kenny, somehow.

*bump*


Oops.

Well, given Australian parties' tradition of ousting leaders, I won't even be surprised if Abbott manages to become party leader again before the next elections...

*bump*

Those who predicted Cameron and Trudeau are looking good.  Probably Turnbull too, though that's less certain.

*bump*


Hmmm....

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Alain Juppé (please...)
...prime minister of the UK? Is that McDonnell guy talked about as more likely to succeed Corbyn? If so, hopefully him.
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnbull

I will take some accolades now.  Not all accolades as I foolishly said he had a shot in the general election if he could only get there, but accolades nonetheless.

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Nicolas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Angela Eagle
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (despite me thinking Malcolm wins tomorrow)

A few bolters, but meh.

Shorten's going to hang on as ALP leader even if they lose the election this weekend?  (Not saying that's not true, I just haven't really thought about it.)

If it's close enough I suspect he will, yeah.

...president of the United States? Donald Trump
...chancellor of Germany? Sigmar Gabriel
...president of France? Nicolas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcom Turnbull

Hillary Clinton
Sigmar Gabriel
Alain Juppe
Theresa May
Justin Trudeau
Bill Shorten

Congrats.  You were the only person in this thread to guess Donald Trump for POTUS, who now looks likely to be the right answer.  Of course, none of the people posting in 2013 got it right.

Also, no one guessed Theresa May for UK PM until after the Brexit vote took place, though Crabcake came close:

...president of the United States? Donald Trump
...chancellor of Germany? Sigmar Gabriel
...president of France? Francois Fillon
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcom Turnbull

...president of the United States? Donald Trump (might not be president in the next year if he loses the election)
...chancellor of Germany? No clue
...president of France? Francois Fillon
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (wins in a landslide (200+), and wins nearly a majority of the popular vote)
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (Turdbull's poor choices will come back to haunt him)

Sigmar Gabriel. LOL.

Well this is off to a bad start. Clinton and Sarko lost and Eagle got cold feet.

President of the United States- Trump
Chancellor of Germany- Merkel
President of France- Fillon
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom- May
Prime Minister of Canada- Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia- Shorten

One month to go until the four year anniversary of this thread’s creation.  Many people who were guessing back in 2013 got Merkel right, and a few got Trudeau right.  No one else who was guessing within the first month of this thread’s creation got any of the other ones right.  Heck, regardless of who wins the French runoff, no one even got the correct political party on that one.  :P

Props to change08 though, for correctly (assuming he isn’t ousted within the next few months) guessing Turnbull in his post from Sept. 2013:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174056.msg3861745#msg3861745

This threat fundamentally proves that conventional wisdom is almost totally dead in world politics. With that in mind:

...president of the United States? Tom Perriello
...chancellor of Germany? Martin Schulz
...president of France? Emmanuel Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
...prime minister of Canada? Maxine Bernier
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Bhorten?

This thred shows how pointless such speculations are and if somebody's right, it's mostly a good luck.

Looking back in this thread, if any of my predictions are even close to being right I will give up beer for a year.

President of the United States: Steve Bullock (eh, at least it's more original than Trump or Warren)
Chancellor of Germany: Angela Merkel (on her way out, with Hannelore Kraft winning the subsequent election)
President of France: Emmanuel Macron
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Theresa Villiers (May will likely be gone around this time and I have no idea who'll succeed her (it won't be Boris), so why not?)
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia: Bill Shorten

...oh and just for sake of guessing:
Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson

President of the United States- Donald John Trump
Chancellor of Germany- Angela Merkel
President of France- Emmanuel Macron
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom- Theresa May
Prime Minister of Canada- Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia- Bill Shorten

Two of them are already proven wrong, and another in all but name. I got Trudeau right, and I guess Merkel and Turnbull might still work out (though hopefully not!).

...president of the United States? Kamala Harris
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Emannuel Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May, but way behind in the polls to John McDonnell's Labour (hopefully)
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Anthony Albanese

...president of the United States? Trump (It won't be election day 2020 at this point)
...chancellor of Germany? Who knows at the moment
...president of France? Emmanuel Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten

Huh?  Four years from today will be April 2021, three months after the inauguration of whoever won the 2020 election.

...president of the United States? Mike Pence (succeeded to the Presidency following the July 2019 resignation of Donald Trump; defeated the Democratic challenger, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, in the 2020 presidential election)

...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (has already announced she wouldn't seek re-election to a 5th term)

...president of France? Emmanuel Macron (hovering around 40% approvals, & climbing; expected to run for re-election in 2022 (& defeat most candidates in 2nd-round hypotheticals))

...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May (not yet gone but behind Yvette Cooper's Labour in the polls prior to the expected May 2022 general election)

...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (headed for a third majority in 2023)

...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (Labor's 2019 victory had mirrored the Coalition's 2016 narrow margin victory with 76 seats & the Liberal Party again switched leaders: back to Tony Abbott, who in 2021 is expected to (again) defeat Labor at the 2022 election)

...president of the United States? Mike Pence (although could be Trump or a Democrat)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Emmanuel Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau, although he should be on a reduced majority or minority.
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (sigh...)

President of the United States: Darryl W. Perry
President of Syria: Mike Assad

Why was I thinking it was 2016...

...president of the United States? depends on who actually runs in 2020

I don't think the Aussie Liberals are toast yet, btw. Their poll deficit isn't embarrassingly high and there's still over two years until an election is due. Remember that Beazley got a similar result in 1998 to Shorten in 2016.

...president of the United States? Cory Booker
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Emmanuel Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten

I was very tempted to put Trump as President but ultimately decided not to.

President of the US: Donald Trump
Chancellor of Germany: Whoever the SPD nominates in 2021
President of France: Emmanuel Macron
Prime Minister of the UK: Theresa May (also wins reelection in 2022)
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia: No idea

Also, Prime Minister of Spain: Mariano Rajoy, or whoever PP nominates if he retires (probably Soraya Saenz, but I can also see Cospedal or Feijoo instead)

April 30, 2021:

POTUS: Bernie Sanders, or some other Democrat
Chancellor of Germany: Angela Merkel, or if she retires in her term, someone else from the CDU
PM of the UK: Theresa May (Tories)
President of France: Emmanuel Macron (EM)
Chancellor of Austria: Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)

President of the US: Any Democrat
Chancellor of Germany: Angela Merkel, probably
President of France: Emmanuel Macron
Prime Minister of the UK: Theresa May
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia: Bill Shorten, probably

Prime Minister of Portugal: António Costa (PS) or Rui Rio (PSD)

President of The United States: Sherrod Brown
Prime Minister of UK: Theresa May
Prime Minister of Canada:Andrew Scheer
President of France: Emmanuel Marcon

President of the US:  Donald Trump
Prime Minister of UK:  Theresa May
President of France:  Emmanuel Marcon
Chancellor of Germany:  Angela Merkel
Prime Minister of Canada: Maxime Bernier

I already got one wrong (Fillon). I'm fairly confident about the rest (I posted this in November 2016 and Trump still will be presidentin November 2020 even if he loses in 2020). By May 2021 Trump will be gone. So:

President of the United States- Warren (ew)
Chancellor of Germany- Merkel (on her way out, presumably replaced by someone from the SPD)
President of France- Macron
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom- May
Prime Minister of Canada- Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia- Shorten

I'll add some bonus guesses:

Prime Minister of the Netherlands: Mark Rutte
Prime Minister of Belgium: Charles Michel
Prime Minister of Denmark: Mette Frederiksen
Prime Minister of Italy: Matteo Renzi
Prime Minister of Spain: Mariano Rajoy
Prime Minister of Poland: Please let it be Grzegorz Schetyna. Please
Prime Minister of Portugal: Antonio Costa
President of the European Commission: Jyrki Katainen

PM of the UK: Corbyn (Labour)
President of the US: Warren (Democratic)
Chancellor of Germany: Merkel or maybe someone else in the CDU
President of France: Macron (REM)
PM of Canada: Scheer (Conservative)
PM of Greece: Mitsotakis (ND)
President of Cyprus: Papadopoulos (DIKO)
PM of Spain: Rajoy (PP)

The last post in this thread from 2013:


He managed to get three out of six right.

US: a Democrat (if I had to guess, maybe Gillibrand)
PM of the UK: Jeremy Corbyn
President of France: Emmanuel Macron
Chancellor of Germany: Jens Spahn
Chancellor of Austria: Sebastian Kurz
Prime Minister of Belgium: Charles Michel
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia: Bill Shorten, or some other ALP member
Prime Minister of New Zealand: Bill English
Prime Minister of Israel: Binyamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister of Italy: Antonio Tajani

...president of the United States? This far out, and with no knowledge of the final candidates, no clue.
...chancellor of Germany? No clue
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Corbyn
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Shorten

And would have been five out of six if not for two electoral upsets.

Anyhow:

...president of the United States? Idk, could well be Trump, if not him then someone like Gillibrand
...chancellor of Germany? Merkel'll still be there, despite her current issues
...president of France? Macron, with low approval ratings
...prime minister of the UK? May, with low approval ratings
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau, with somewhat better approval ratings than the above
...prime minister of Australia? Whoever in the ALP caucus managed to successfully overthrow Bill Shorten

United States: whomever the Democrats nominate.
Germany: whomever the CDU/CSU choose.
France: Macron (REM) doesn't face election until 2022
UK: whomever the Tories have replace May, Rudd, Johnson and Davis being top contenders. Don't think the government will fall so election in May 2022
Italy: whomever leads centre-right coalition
Canada: Justin Trudeau
Australia: Bill Shorten

So partywise my predictions which I think have a better chance at being right, but expect a few surprises

US: Democrats
Germany: CDU/CSU
France: En Marche
UK: Tories
Italy: Forza Italia (Democratic Party wins popular vote but centre-right union parties back Forza Italia)
Canada: Liberals
Australia: Labor

*bump*


Well, it's four years later, and looks like this was wrong.  Merkel's still in.

Four years ago, some folks in this thread were correctly predicting Merkel and Trudeau.  Only one poster was predicting Turnbull in Australia.  Unsurprisingly, no one guessed Trump, May, or Macron.

May wouldn't have been that unreasonable in 2014, I believe the consensus then was that Osborne, Johnson and May were the 3 frontrunners with everyone else being extremely far behind. Macron in March 2014 would have been extremely weird, in March 2015 it would have been unlikely but possible. Predicting Trump would have been batsh**t insane in March 2014.

Yeah, Merkel's intention to resign by 2017 probably had been true at one point. What basically happened was that Ursula von der Leyen - who was originally given the Defense ministry in an effort to groom her as Merkel's successor - ended up being a less-than-stellar defense minister in practice. And when you're as long in office as Merkel you're starting to get convinced that only you (and maybe someone who's handpicked by you) is capable of running the country in any competent fashion.

Von der Leyen turned out to be dud, so that meant that Merkel either had to run for another term or risk turning the party and the country over to someone who's not loyal to her, like Jens Spahn. She decided to do the former and eventually appointed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as her new heir-apparent after the 2017 election. In picking Kramp-Karrenbauer she even followed the same pattern she had used when appointing Von der Leyen four years prior... choosing a pragmatic, moderate-to-liberal, female CDU politician who's practically a younger clone of yourself.

Close.  You were off by a few months.

Also, no one was predicting Scott Morrison for Australia back in 2014/2015.

I really haven't a clue who's gonna be German Chancellor four years from now. It surely won't be Angela Merkel, since the discussion about her future usually circles around the question "will she retire sometime prior to the 2021 election or will she complete her current term in office after all"? However, her anointed successor AKK - suffering from a severe form of foot-in-the-mouth disease ever since she took over the CDU - is kind of fizzling out at the moment. So.. Armin Laschet maybe?  ???

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of England and Wales: Jacon Rees-Mogg

At this point I think in four years the PM of the UK will probably be Swinson. Corbyn has Labour in a death grip and won't leave until he's carried out, turning them into a fringe nuisance party. The Tories are unlikely to hold total power until then, so the LDs are likely to continue to rise until they become the opposition and eventual coalition leaders.

Oh yes, the same thing we've heard in the 1980s: Labour is done and the SDP-Liberal alliance will inevitably get to power.

Labour's never been in the vise grip of an unelectable cult leader who would rather see the party and country flounder than give up his little slice of power.

The LDs have rarely had a natural political talent as good as Swinson, either.

These comments just show that you are a moronic cultist yourself - merely a different kind.

Of course, your utterly risible username confirms that too :)

And that comment about Swinson - genuine ROFLMAO.

She is a lightweight centre-right neoliberal.

The end.

This reply and others you've done reek of cultist leftism.

I don't think such a description of her is even particularly controversial.

She is what she is.

Like, even right leaning LibDems tend not to think a statue of Thatcher is a good idea.

2 years later, I was wrong about Rajoy, Papadopoulos and probably Merkel but I am still confident I was right about Mitsotakis and Macron. Interesting that I predicted Warren as the Democratic nominee, I forgot this myself. There is a lot of indication nowadays this may come true - although a Trump re-election seems more likely than it did back then. I still stand by my predictions for Corbyn and Scheer, although less confidently now.

Updating, holy hell I was off on some of these back in 2017 haha

...president of the United States? who knows honestly
...chancellor of Germany? AKK probably
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Gove
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

...president of the United States? Biden
...chancellor of Germany? AKK
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Swinson
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

And AKK has turned out to be a dud as well. Guess this means Merkel will have to run again in 2021...

This looks likely now.  Seems unlikely there'll be another election before 2021, so Johnson will still be PM then.

Well, no one who posted in this thread in either 2017 or 2018 predicted Biden would be POTUS four years later.  Obamaisdabest predicted Harris would be prez in 4 years back on April 29, 2017: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174056.msg5628151#msg5628151

That seems very unlikely to be correct at this point, but I guess in the unlikely event that Biden gets a massive health scare during his first three months in office, then it could happen.

The other predictions people had back in 2017/2018 for who would be president in 2021/2022 were: 4 predictions for Trump, 2 for Pence, 2 for Warren, and 1 each for Booker, Bullock, Gillibrand, Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Tom Perriello, and Darryl W. Perry (lol).  And like I said, zero people predicting Biden.

Also, as noted in my previous post, back in April 2017, LabourJersey predicted that Boris Johnson would be UK PM in four years.  No one else was predicting Johnson back in 2017.  Most people at that point predicted that May would still be PM in 2021.

Lots of people in 2017 predicted Merkel in Germany, Macron in France, and Trudeau in Canada, but those were the safest predictions to make in 2017.

Narrator: Turnbull did not work out.

I've grown increasingly uninterested in predictions over the last few years, so I don't think I'll be engaging in this thread again.

Putin and Xi I predict will be still in power in 2025.

Does any1 want to try a new prediction for Jan 2, 2025 ?

Well this aged very poorly lmao. Only one I ended getting right is Macron which was impossible to miss.

Especially hilarious is the fact that I predicted Theresa May hanging for way too long (though in fairness the Conservative Party did win reelection, just not with May).

Anyways, here is my new bet for the start of Jaunary 2025:

President of the US: Whoever the Republicans nominate (technically Biden but he will be in the lame duck term)
Chancellor of Germany: Whoever wins the CDU leadership election in 2021
President of France: Emmanuel Macron
Prime Minister of the UK: Keir Starmer
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia: Anthony Albanese

Prime Minister of Spain: Pedro Sánchez

President of the United States: Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris as President-elect.

Chancellor of Germany: Heiko Maas

President of France: Marine Le Pen

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson

Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

Prime Minister of Australia: No clue

Well, I don't see Merkel, Macron, or Trudeau being forced out-of-office sometime in the next 4 months, so 3 out of 6 ain't bad! (Not to mention, the specific predictions for both Merkel & Macron appear to have been spot-on!) Thank god my American prediction ended up being hilariously incorrect, but RIP the hopes for PM Shorten & an incoming PM Yvette Cooper :P

Here goes nothing for January 2, 2025:

...president of the United States? Joe Biden (preparing for his imminent 2nd term)

...chancellor of Germany? Markus Söder (Armin Laschet was elected CDU chair, but Söder was chosen to be the CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate & went on to form the expected Black-Green coalition, though bumpier-than-expected coalition talks mean they're not able to take office 'til Jan. 2022, allowing Merkel to surpass Kohl & become the longest-serving post-war Chancellor in Dec. 2021.)

...president of France? Emmanuel Macron

...prime minister of the UK? Keir Starmer (2024 sees the Tories & Labour end up neck-&-neck in terms of seats (~285 each), & Starmer forms a minority coalition government with the Lib Dems in exchange for electoral reform, supported by a confidence-&-supply deal with the SNP in exchange for IndyRef2.)

...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (Liberals won a majority in the spring of 2022)

...prime minister of Australia? Anthony Albanese (2022 sees Labor win 73 seats to the Coalition's 72, & Albanese forms a minority government with the support of the Greens MP & 2 crossbenchers.)

Even if the Tories are still in power as 2025 arrives, its highly unlikely that Johnson will then be PM.

Nah, he is considered a rather mediocre Foreign Minister, plus it is highly unlikely the SPD will recover by then. He lost state elections he ran for three times in a row and even in case of an (unlikely) SPD recovery, state governors who could prove to win by then (Manuela Schwesig, Stephan Weil?) seem more suited to be the SPD candidate for Chancellor.

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

I mean, you're obviously wrong, but this thread is such a weird concept that it doesn't feel worth addressing.

If the Americans voted out Trump by a 5%-margin, the French will not elect LePen ...

There are certainly strong reasons for thinking it might not happen, but "look at America" maybe isn't one given that we are talking about *France* here ;)

"If the Americans voted for Reagan by a 10%-margin, the French will not elect Mitterrand..."

🍎 & 🍊

I'm probably going to me just as wrong as I was in 2013, but I'll give it a go.

United States: Kamala Harris, who will be running against a DeSantis/Hawley ticket in 2024.
United Kingdom: Depends when the GE is, but probably BoJo.
France: I have no idea.
Canada: A Liberal not named Trudeau.

Out of curiosity, do you foresee a DeSantis/Hawley ticket as a MAGA tripling-down, or as DeSantis running as a somewhat more Generic R and then bringing Hawley in to nail down the Trump diehard lane?

I think it’d be somewhere in the middle.

By law there has to be a general election by the end of 2024 in the UK. Whenever it is and whatever the result, I have made clear my view on the likelihood of the present PM still being there upthread.

Might as well cross off the ones that won't happen. Awful prediction  >__<

Not to worry, just shows that four years is an even "longer" period than usual right now.

These things are a bit like the stock market. It's usually better not to go for whatever is trending at the present moment.

There is a fair amount of truth in this, "conventional wisdom" is wrong an awful lot of the time.

*bump*

Well, no one posted predictions in this thread in 2018.  So we don’t know if anyone would have gotten Scholz or Albanese during that time.  However, we do have two predictions from September 2019 that predicted Albanese:

So four years from now is May 2026?

...president of the United States? Trump (hope this is wrong)
...chancellor of Germany? Scholz
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Starmer
...prime minister of Canada? Some Liberal, not Trudeau (Don't know enough about Canadian politics to be more specific)
...prime minister of Australia? Not Albanese (Again not an expert in Australian politics, but their PM's don't seem to last very long)

...president of the United States? Ronald Dion DeSantis, Esq.
...chancellor of Germany? Herr Marcus Thomas Theodor Söder
...president of France? Monsieuer Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Sir Keir Rodney Starmer
...prime minister of Canada? Ms. Christina Alexandra Freeland
...prime minister of Australia? Albo

Look who that one had as the UK premier, though :D

So I think I got 2/6. Ooooof.

Now let's try 2026:

US: Trump
Germany: Spahn
France: Macron (I know, bold call)
UK: Starmer
Canada: Trudeau
Australia: Albanese

Well, I was badly wrong.

2026:

Australia: I'll say it's still Albanese
United Kingdom: Rishi Sunak
France:Emmanuel Macron (as the 2027 Election hasn't happened yet)
Canada: Still Justin Trudeau
United States: Kamala Harris

Not terrible so far...

Lol Was very wrong. Anyway this is what I think for May 2026


President of the United States: Ron DeSantis

Prime Minister of UK: Keir Starmer(2024 ends with a narrow minority Tory Gov which falls a year later and Starmer wins)

Prime Minister of Canada: Pierre Poilievre

President of France: Emmanuel Macron

May 29, 2026:

President of the United States: Joseph Robinette Biden (Defeated Ronald DeSantis, 292-246)

Prime Minister of UK: Boris Johnson

Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

President of France: Emmanuel Macron

Chancellor of Germany: Olaf Scholz

Prime Minister of Australia: Anthony Albanese

Guess for May 2026:

Germany - Guenther
USA - DeSantis
UK - Johnson
France - Macron

Edit:

Russia - Putin, unfortunately.

America - Trump
United Kingdom - Starmer
Canada - Poilievre
France - Macron
Germany - Merz
Australia - Albanese

...president of the United States: Joe Biden
...chancellor of Germany: Friedrich Merz
...president of France: Emmanuel Macron
...prime minister of the UK: Keir Starmer
...prime minister of Canada: Chrystia Freeland
...prime minister of Australia: Anthony Albanese

LOL, been in a coma this year have we?

USA: Trump again
UK: Starmer
France: Édouard Philippe (cheating here by going for five years from now rather than four, but otherwise what's the point)
Germany: still Scholz
Canada: Poilievre
Australia: still Albanese

Those all look reasonably plausible right now.

As far as the UK in 2026 is concerned, if we assume there is a change of government then quite a big factor is how the Tories react to losing office. Quite possibly not that well, given current indications.