Talk Elections

A list of of republicans in Obama (2012) states and democrats in Romney states in the Senate and Governorships.

Democrats (Republican Targets):

Senate:

2014:

Mark Begich (D-AK)
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
OPEN (D-MT)
Kay Hagan (D-NC)
OPEN (D-SD)
OPEN (D-WV)

2016:

NONE

2018:

Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
Jon Tester (D-MT)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Governorships:

2013:

NONE

2014:

OPEN (D-AR)

2015:

OPEN (D-KY)

2016:

OPEN (D-MO)
Steve Bullock (D-MT)
OPEN (D-WV)

Republicans (Democratic Targets):

Senate:

2014:

Susan Collins (R-ME)

2016:

Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Mark Kirk (R-IL)
Chuck Grassely (R-IA)
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
Rob Portman (R-OH)
Pat Toomey (R-PA)
Ron Johnson (R-WI)

2018:

Dean Heller (R-NV)

Governorships:

2013:

Chris Christie (R-NJ) (obviously safe)
OPEN (R-VA)

2014:

Rick Scott (R-FL)
Terry Branstad (R-IA)
Paul LePage (R-ME)
Rick Snyder (R-MI)
Brian Sandoval (R-NV)
Susana Martinez (R-NM)
John Kasich (R-OH)
Tom Corbett (R-PA)
Scott Walker (R-WI)

2015:

NONE

2016:

NONE

Conclusion: The democrats should have a good Senate year in 2016, and a good governor year in 2014. Meanwhile the republicans should have good Senate years in 2014 and 2018, and possibly a good governor year in 2016.

Only quibble: Pubs would target Bennet and Reid in '16, especially if Gardner/Sandoval can be recruited.

He's listing Democrats in Romney states/Republicans in Obama states. Otherwise, for a start, Collins and Manchin wouldn't be on the list.

If you want, I'll star the ones that are/aren't vulnerable.

GOP targets
Begich
Landrieu
Pryor
MT open
SD
WV

Democratic targets
GA open

2016
Democratic targets
Kirk
Johnson
Toomey

GOP targets
Bennett

I agree with Roguebeaver. The Pubs will have 2 targets who could flip in a neutral year with the right candidate:
-In  Nevada: Reid could lose against the governor
-In Colorado: Bennnet isn't really strong, but the Pubs would have to pick a decent nominee, maybe Mike Coffman?

And in a republican year, the washington senate seat could flip too: Patty Murray isn't really popular and I read that Dave Reichert could challenge her, and Reichert is obviously a strong candidate.

I would add Ayotte to Democratic targets and Reid to republican targets and your list looks good.

2014
Mitch McConnell- lots of people are laughing at this but I'm serious. Democrats really need to help recruit Allison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell is the biggest PoS in the Senate and we cannot let the rich crooks win and the big money and special interests cronies win another election for McConnell. I am Canadian and I feel like I would be very tempted to come to Kentucky to campaign for Grimes

Hopefully the Democrats can win or make the open seat in Georgia competitive for Nunn.

I'm not laughing.  Never was.

Anyway, here would be my list.  This doesn't necessarily take into account how these states voted in 2012, and we don't even know who's running in some of these races (colors are for the party currently holding the office):

2013 Governor
Virginia

2014 Governor
Arkansas
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina

2014 Senate
Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Montana
New Hampshire
North Carolina
South Dakota
West Virginia[/color]

2015 Governor
Kentucky
Louisiana

2016 Governor
Delaware
Missouri
Montana
North Carolina
Washington
West Virginia

2016 Senate
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Illinois
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

2017 Governor
New Jersey
Virginia
(Depends on who wins this year)

2018 Governor
None
(Depends on who wins in 2014)

2018 Senate
Arizona
Florida
Indiana
Maine (For both parties)
Massachusetts
Michigan
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Dakota
Ohio
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Conclusion: 2014 could be a good year for Republicans in the Senate but for either party for Governors; 2016 should be good for Democrats for Senate and Republicans for Governors; 2018 should be good for Republicans for Senate.

If Bennett and Reid couldn't be beaten in a year like 2010, they won't lose in a Presidential year.  Neither of those states are getting any easier for Republicans.

Looks okay, except you might want to add Connecticut and Massachusetts to 2014 Gov seats your party's targeting. Malloy has mediocre approvals, and Democrats might be running Martha f()ing Coakley again in MA. For Senate that year NH is likely out of the question, given how hard of a time the Republicans are having finding candidates.

2015/2016 looks good. Maybe I'd put Iowa in there if Grassley leaves and take out Delaware (Castle seems to be the only one who's able to win, and Beau Biden is waiting in the wings). ND won't be targeted at all either. Hoeven was more popular than Jesus Christ when he left for the Senate, and I don't assume that's changed. We've got a better chance at picking up Utah or Wyoming than North Dakota.

For 2017 I'd definitely put both down. Virginia only lets its governors serve for one term, and New Jersey's going to be heavily targeted by Democrats whether Guadagno takes over or not. 2018 I'd switch out Nebraska for Nevada and take off MA. Warren is a good fit for the state and it was reasonably difficult for Democrats to beat Fischer without incumbency. Nevada's trending Atlas red though. Hell, even New Jersey could find its way on here.

I get you on Bennet, but Reid faced an awful candidate. If Governor Sandoval runs, I find it hard to believe Reid would win re-election. Other than Sandoval, though, Nevada's bench looks not too great.

Taking into account potential retirements

2016 Senate
1st Tier:
Kirk (IL)
Johnson (WI)
Toomey (PA)
Portman (OH)
Ayotte (NH)
Rubio (FL)

Bennet (CO)
Reid (NV)

2nd Tier:
McCain (AZ)
Grassley (IA)
Isakson (GA)
Coats (IN)
Paul (KY)
Vitter (LA)
Blunt (MO)
Burr (NC)
Thune (SD)

Murray (WA)

2018 Senate
1st Tier:
Heller (NV)

Donnelly (IN)
McCaskill (MO)
Tester (MT)
Heitkamp (ND)
Baldwin (WI)
Manchin (WV)


2nd Tier:
Flake (AZ)
Cruz (TX)

Nelson (FL)
Stabenow (MI)
King (ME)
Klobuchar (MN)
Heinrich (NM)
Brown (OH)
Casey (PA)
Kaine (VA)
Murphy (CT)

Reid will probably retire and remember Cortez-Masto is looking either looking to run for either Governor or US Senate in the near future. I don't think she will run for 1 of the 4 US House Seats in NV in the near future.  The NV Dems have Miller(The Secretary of State) waiting in the wings too ready to run for Governor or even US Senate.

Agreed, likeliest bet is that in 2016, Reid retires and Cortez-Masto wins the open seat. I don't really see Sandoval running for Senate in 2016.

2013 Governor
Virginia

2014 Governor
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
South Carolina

2015 Governor
Kentucky
Louisiana

2016 Governor
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
North Carolina
West Virginia

2017 Governor
New Jersey
Virginia

2018 Governor
???

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*=Possible Retirement

2014 Senate
Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia


2016 Senate
Arizona*
Colorado
Florida*
Illinois
Iowa*
Kentucky*
Nevada*
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

2018 Senate
Arizona
Florida*
Indiana
Maine*
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
West Virginia*
Wisconsin

Sandoval is probably the only Republican who could win that seat and even then, it would be very close in a Presidential year.

The R's almost had Reid beat in 1998. He only beat John Ensign by 400 votes that year. Reid being pro-life and pro-gun may have saved him that year. NV was still Moderately Republican back then. It wasn't a battleground state back then.

Yeah, Nevada was more like how Arizona is now back in 1998.