Talk Elections

General Politics => International General Discussion => Topic started by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2013, 08:12:39 AM



Title: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2013, 08:12:39 AM
 Independence Square in Kyiv is occupied by protestors, and government buildings are being blockaded. Yanukovych is caught between 2 rocks. Can't sign the Customs Union when this has become a nationalist issue, can't reverse course without pissing off Putin. Some cracks are appearing in his party: the parliamentary speaker wants a government-opposition roundtable and sees no need for a state of emergency (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/world/europe/ukraine-unrest.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0Been ongoing for the past 11 days, hundreds of thousands of protesters in the streets[/url). Either Klitschko or Tymoshenko would trounce him in 2015 per the latest polls, so there's not much to look forward to either.

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-12-01/violent-clashes-huge-protest-in-kiev-ukraine-viktor-yanukovich-vitaly-klitschko/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25088613


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2013, 10:32:32 AM
There might be a non-confidence motion later today (http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/178492.html), but Yanukovych's POR holds a parliamentary majority and at any rate there's no way to enforce a government resignation without Yanukovych's cooperation IIRC, unless the rules changed since 2004.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on December 02, 2013, 04:04:08 PM
It's good to see the Ukrainian people standing up to Russian intimidation. Russia has always since 1991 tried to uphold the premise that all the former Soviet SSR's are inherently Russia's sphere of influence (sans the Baltic states, of course) and it's good to see Georgia and now the Ukrainians standing up to them.

The thing is in Eastern Ukraine there is a Russian preponderance with road signs in Russian, ect. so it's not going to be as clear cut.

I have always held that in the medium-term Russia is America's number one geo-political foe ( know, I know, I hate to sound like John Bolton) and think we should try to expand NATO membership to Georgia and work harder to undermine the regime in Belarus. I was quite disappointed when Democrats attacked Romney in 2012 for saying as much to be honest.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 03, 2013, 08:05:30 AM
Non-confidence failed. Had 186, needed 226 which won't happen without major POR defections.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/04/world/europe/ukraine-unrest.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: windjammer on December 03, 2013, 11:59:43 AM
Non-confidence failed. Had 186, needed 226 which won't happen without major POR defections.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/04/world/europe/ukraine-unrest.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)
:(


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ingemann on December 03, 2013, 03:35:53 PM
If anyone want to know what soft power means, this is a very good example. Soft power is when you can make demand of a country, and the country's own citizens demostrate in favour of the foreign power making the demands.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on December 09, 2013, 02:59:41 PM
I appears things are escalating with state security services (?) storming the oppositions main offices.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/12/9/armed-men-storm-ukraineoppositionoffices.html

AL JAZEERA: Masked men with guns raided the Kiev party headquarters of Ukraine's jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko and took a computer server on Monday, spokeswoman Natalia Lysova said.

Lysova blamed police for the raid, but the police denied any involvement. Online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda said the raid was the work of the SBU state security service, which was unavailable for comment.

The raid occurred amid heightened tension in the Ukrainian capital after hundreds of thousands of people attended a protest rally on Sunday, which continued Monday, demanding the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovich, Tymoshenko's arch rival.

The protesters, gathered on Kiev's Independence Square, are furious with the Yanukovich government for its decision to ditch a landmark pact with the European Union in favor of a trade deal with Moscow, Ukraine's Soviet-era overlord. Scores of riot police were dispatched to the area on Monday, stoking fears of a crackdown.

Yanukovich subsequently agreed Monday to meet with the country's three former presidents to discuss how to end the political crisis. The president said the round table would take place Tuesday.

Tymoshenko, whose fiery rhetoric galvanized protesters in the Orange Revolution of 2004-05 that denied Yanukovich the presidency then, is serving a seven-year sentence for abuse of office in a case condemned by many in the West as politically motivated.

Ukraine's opposition leaders have called on pro-Europe demonstrators to pressure Yanukovich to sack his government and drop plans for closer ties with Russia.

The latest protests have escalated a weeks-long confrontation between authorities and protesters that has raised fears of political and economic instability in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic home to 46 million people.

----------------


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 09, 2013, 03:04:55 PM
They've also ransacked media outlets and stole one of their servers. Ashton will be flying into Kiev tomorrow, while Biden, Bildt and the US Embassy have all personally warned Yanukovych not to use force. Yanukovych has agreed to a proposal from the ex-presidents for roundtable talks. Merkel and the EPP are backing Klitschko, who will meet Flanby and Fabius in Paris tomorrow. Remember: Yanukovych wanted to use force in 2004 but was overruled by Kuchma.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: GMantis on December 09, 2013, 05:36:16 PM
It's good to see the Ukrainian people standing up to Russian intimidation. Russia has always since 1991 tried to uphold the premise that all the former Soviet SSR's are inherently Russia's sphere of influence (sans the Baltic states, of course)
Or maybe Russia is upholding the premise that a country can't join a free trade area with one trade block and expect to receive preferential treatment from a rival trade block. In fact, that pretty much what Barroso said earlier this year, though he meant it the other way around. And while an association with the far richer EU would be beneficial to the Ukraine, would it offset damages from worsened trade relations with Russia. Add the kind of conditions that Ukraine would probably have to accept from the IMF for a loan and the choice doesn't seem nearly as clearcut.

Quote
and it's good to see Georgia and now the Ukrainians standing up to them.
In a country as polarized as Ukraine, statements such as these are about as meaningful as "America stood behind Bush in 2004", ie not at all. As for Georgia, "standing up" against Russia resulted in hundreds of casualties and tens of thousands of people permanently expelled, so perhaps such actions, however brave they may seem viewed from 10 thousand km away, shouldn't be emulated so rashly.

Quote
The thing is in Eastern Ukraine there is a Russian preponderance with road signs in Russian, ect. so it's not going to be as clear cut.
Yes, if by preponderance you mean that over 80% of the population prefer to use Russian in daily life. But I don't think they are road signs in Russian, at least until recently. Until Yanukovich came to power, the Ukrainian had pursued a persistent Ukrainization policy and had made Ukrainian the only state language - including in the most strongly Russophone provinces of Ukraine (granted, the Crimea was practically an exception). This was changed by a law passed in 2012 which permitted provinces to use an additional language (not only Russian, incidentally) if it was widely spoken on their territory.

Quote
I have always held that in the medium-term Russia is America's number one geo-political foe ( know, I know, I hate to sound like John Bolton) and think we should try to expand NATO membership to Georgia and work harder to undermine the regime in Belarus. I was quite disappointed when Democrats attacked Romney in 2012 for saying as much to be honest.
And when Georgia demands that NATO fulfills their treaty obligations and remove the Russian occupying troops (in Georgia's view) from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what will happen then?
Also, Lukashenko being removed doesn't mean that Belarus will suddenly become a pro-Western country. Belarus is overwhelmingly Russian speaking, has little cultural differences with Russia and their national consciousness is fairly weak. So it's quite possible that Belarus might become even closer to Russia if Lukashenko is removed.
And Romney was right in the sense that if you want a country to be your foe, it will eventually become so. Why the US would want this to happen with Russia is another matter.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 10, 2013, 07:04:39 PM
Police are clearing Maidan out as we speak.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on January 22, 2014, 02:36:46 PM
Well, the sh**t has really hit the fan...

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At least 5 dead as we speak.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on January 22, 2014, 02:38:49 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pkzi6-zz55M

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EH4KRGzhhQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI7IIUsoEFQ


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: NewYorkExpress on January 22, 2014, 03:07:46 PM
Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 22, 2014, 04:09:12 PM
Tomorrow Maidan will attack. There are also 5 tanks and some APCs inbound from Kharkov. State of emergency will also be imposed, tonight they'll cut electricity. Been interfering with electronic comms all day. Oh, and 5 people have been killed with over 300 injured today alone.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 22, 2014, 11:33:01 PM
Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

What do you mean?

Russia did not intervene in Georgia when the pro-Russian president was overthrown in a revolution.

They only intervened when the Georgian military acted aggressively towards people who had not been under Georgian authority for more than a decade and didn't wish to be.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: NewYorkExpress on January 22, 2014, 11:56:15 PM
Putin's gotten even more brazen since then....


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 23, 2014, 12:18:40 AM
Additionally, Putin has hedged his bets here.

Remember that Tymoshenko is in jail for giving Russia a sweetheart deal on gas.

Yanyukovych's hard turn back to Moscow is him trying to show his loyalty in the face of Russia's indifference.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on January 23, 2014, 08:23:10 AM
They only intervened when the Georgian military acted aggressively towards people who had not been under Georgian authority for more than a decade and didn't wish to be.

I'm sure that was Putin's main concern....


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Pingvin on January 23, 2014, 08:43:27 AM
Right now it's not pro-EU, but pretty much anti-Yanukovych now.
May God give Ukrainians enough power to resist.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 25, 2014, 04:18:54 PM
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, acting leader of the Tymoshenko Bloc, has been offered the position of Prime Minister.

Vitali Klitschko has been offered Deputy PM.

Really though, it should be the other way around, based on who's been leading the protests.

This is obviously Yanukovych trying to ferment a power struggle within the opposition. Smart move on his part.

I wonder if they will take the bait though.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 25, 2014, 04:21:03 PM
Prior to that offer, my prediction was thus:

Klitschko would get elected in the next election, whenever that ends up being.

Tymoshenko would be the main candidate against him when he runs for re-election, and she would have Russian backing.

I was fairly confident of that prediction too.

Everything will become very confused if Yatsenyuk becomes PM though.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 25, 2014, 04:31:07 PM
They didn't take the obvious bait, said protests will continue till the laws are repealed, parliamentary republicanism is restored, Tymoshenko's released and an early presidential election is held. The oligarchs are meeting tonight. They're probably the key here.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Silent Hunter on January 27, 2014, 12:17:03 PM
Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

At the end of the day, provided they're still buying the gas, Moscow could care less.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on January 27, 2014, 10:43:31 PM
Or maybe Russia is upholding the premise that a country can't join a free trade area with one trade block and expect to receive preferential treatment from a rival trade block. In fact, that pretty much what Barroso said earlier this year, though he meant it the other way around. And while an association with the far richer EU would be beneficial to the Ukraine, would it offset damages from worsened trade relations with Russia. Add the kind of conditions that Ukraine would probably have to accept from the IMF for a loan and the choice doesn't seem nearly as clearcut.

The long-term political situation makes alignment with the EU much better for Ukraine IMHO. Better to become part of the integrating European Community then a vassal of anachronistic and authoritarian Russia.

In a country as polarized as Ukraine, statements such as these are about as meaningful as "America stood behind Bush in 2004", ie not at all.

You know what I mean, stop hairsplitting.

As for Georgia, "standing up" against Russia resulted in hundreds of casualties and tens of thousands of people permanently expelled, so perhaps such actions, however brave they may seem viewed from 10 thousand km away, shouldn't be emulated so rashly.

Well I guess if the Russians are going to use force then everyone should just give them what they want. Not. Also it's highly unlikely Russia would invade Ukraine because doing so would almost certainly lead to open war with the EU nations.

And when Georgia demands that NATO fulfills their treaty obligations and remove the Russian occupying troops (in Georgia's view) from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what will happen then?

They won't, that's just silly. The obligation to use force would only apply if Russia renewed offensive action. Technically speaking we would be obligated to retake South Ossetia but in real life it's a more complicated situation. The idea is that it would be a defensive alliance. The United States would be the senior partner and the Georgians would know better then to make ridiculous requests.

Also, Lukashenko being removed doesn't mean that Belarus will suddenly become a pro-Western country. Belarus is overwhelmingly Russian speaking, has little cultural differences with Russia and their national consciousness is fairly weak. So it's quite possible that Belarus might become even closer to Russia if Lukashenko is removed.

Good point. Perhaps Belarus is a good buffer state.

And Romney was right in the sense that if you want a country to be your foe, it will eventually become so. Why the US would want this to happen with Russia is another matter.

It's not a matter of "want". It's a matter of competing geo-political interests.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 28, 2014, 02:00:59 AM
Countries don't have to compete for the sake of competing.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on January 28, 2014, 06:42:45 PM
Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

There is a difference: Ukraine is, what, a dozen times as large? And, except in Crimea, that would be all that is needed to make everyone forget about their disagreements and start fighting the common enemy: yes, even in the East. Any invasion outside of Crimea would be dreadfully bloody.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 28, 2014, 09:06:53 PM
Also, Georgia f***ing started that war. Russia was not the aggressor.

If Russia invaded Ukraine, they would be the aggressor.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on January 28, 2014, 09:50:34 PM
Also, Georgia f***ing started that war. Russia was not the aggressor.

If Russia invaded Ukraine, they would be the aggressor.

Well, if it starts, it would start with Crimea declaring independence and calling up the Russians. In fact, unlike in Abkhazia or South Ossetia (both of which before the Soviet break-up were plurality Georgian, and for whose native populations Russians are, at best, protectors of convenience), Crimea has been plurality Russian (at least, by self-identification) since Stalin expelled the Tatars. Furthermore, Russia has retained the naval base in Sebastopol (itself and overwhelmingly ethnically Russian city).

And, of course, any Ukrainian government (Yanukovich included) would go haywire if Russian troops marched across the Kerch Straight. They would have to do something - not even attempting to retain control there would be viewed as High Treason throughout the country. In fact, Ukrainians, however sane otherwise, lose their bearing when they talk about those Russians in Crimea - many would love to deport them all back to Mother Russia. So, arguably, Russia could manufacture the case for being on the defensive with relative ease, if it wanted to. It would, in fact, be more straightforward than in Georgia: they would be defending ethnic Russians.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 28, 2014, 10:04:22 PM
1) That's not going to happen.

2) Even if it did, it would require Crimea to declare independence NOW. Totally different from South Ossetia which had been de facto independent for a decade before the war started.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 28, 2014, 10:29:52 PM
Also, the PM resigned today.

I don't know who that would ever appease.

Maybe Yanyukovych is just trying to win international sympathy and look pitiful.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: NewYorkExpress on January 29, 2014, 09:17:16 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/30/us-ukraine-usa-sanctions-idUSBREA0T04O20140130 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/30/us-ukraine-usa-sanctions-idUSBREA0T04O20140130)

Congress is considering sanctions...

I think you have to include Russia in any sanction package... Putin may not be showing it, but he's practically encouraging a brutal crackdown.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 29, 2014, 10:03:21 PM
Parliament passed a law giving the protesters amnesty on the condition they leave government buildings.

Yanyukovych is doing a good job of PR. She really looks like he's willing to bend and it's the protesters who are unreasonable.

Of course, he's also the guy who poisoned one of his rivals and put another in jail on trumped up charges...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on January 29, 2014, 10:38:54 PM

2) Even if it did, it would require Crimea to declare independence NOW. Totally different from South Ossetia which had been de facto independent for a decade before the war started.

South Ossetia, at its best, had a population of around 100 thousand people. Before the Russian defense/invasion that was down to about 70 thousand. A sizable chunk (around a quarter of the total) of that were Georgians, who lived on fully Georgian-controlled land (about half the territory of SO at the time). Recent estimates of the population of South Ossetia average somewhere in the vicinity of 40 thousand people (around 50 thousand by official data, under 30 thousand by some independent estimates, some actually even lower, closer to 25 thousand). It seems, the outcome of Russian defense was not only to ethnically cleanse the place (and there are, basically, no Georgians left there), but also to remove around a third of the pre-existent Ossetian population as well. Overall, the population has halved after Russian intervention (dropped to barely a third of its late Soviet levels) Does not look like a dramatic humanitarian success - more like a catastrophe. I am pretty sure, if anybody really cared to report from SO, that is how it would have been covered.

Anyway, from what I read at the time, though Georgians might have been the first to start shooting, they seem to have been deliberately provoked (with Russian troops having been first assembled nearby). It would not be too hard to organize something similar in Crimea - Ukrainians could be easily provoked into some minor atrocity. However, one should remember, that if half the population of Crimea has to flee, it would be a million refugees.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RodPresident on February 04, 2014, 10:14:03 PM
In presidential election, opposition would go with a candidate with legal issues, Timoshenko (in prison), Klitschko (for living abroad) or go with a most safe option, like Yatseniuk? Can Tyahnybok upset going into run-off and cause a Yanukovich victory in a reverse 1998.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 05, 2014, 03:26:09 AM
They will probably go with Klitschko, legal issues be damned. The government has shown they are very PR conscious. They are not going to ban candidates from running, especially famous ones sure to attract Western media. It would invite more protests.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: CatoMinor on February 07, 2014, 03:03:28 AM
Quote
The men, Hennadiy Korban and his partner Borys Filatov, decided to remove advertising videos featuring glamorous models from a large outdoor screen at an upscale shopping mall called Passage and replace them with a live broadcast of raucous antigovernment protests at Independence Square in Kiev.

They also ordered their local properties to hoist the flags of the European Union and Ukraine, a gesture of open revolt in a Russian-speaking region where economic and political power have traditionally been united in looking more to Moscow than to Europe for guidance.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/world/europe/ukraine-chief-loses-support-in-stronghold.html

Trouble for Yanukovych if he starts losing control in the east.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 07, 2014, 09:08:16 PM
Russia cites tapes of ambassador as proof the US is meddling in Ukraine.

Oddly though, tapes seem to prove the US isn't with the protesters, they are genuinely trying to sail a middle course between Russia and the EU.

First, they tell the EU to  off, they say they don't want Klitchko (the more radical opposition leader) in office, and they want to prop up a possible BS "national unity" government that Yanukovych will appoint.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Silent Hunter on February 08, 2014, 05:15:10 AM
The ambassador's comment about the EU is a sentiment shared by many of its citizens, I would say.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 18, 2014, 02:10:46 PM
And the sh**t is hitting the fan once again...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Deus Naturae on February 18, 2014, 10:19:42 PM
The police are now bombing the protestors. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26249330)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 19, 2014, 12:10:18 AM
A lot of sh**t.

This is getting to be very dangerous. If Russians come in, it will be awful.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: retromike22 on February 19, 2014, 12:42:32 AM
A lot of sh**t.

This is getting to be very dangerous. If Russians come in, it will be awful.

Are we back to this?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 19, 2014, 08:36:58 AM
If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 19, 2014, 09:01:54 AM
A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the government is a bunch of corrupt thugs and the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franzl on February 19, 2014, 09:16:10 AM
Well looks like I chose a good time to visit Ukraine last month, before the sh**t hit the fan...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 19, 2014, 09:31:17 AM
If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on February 19, 2014, 09:32:23 AM
If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Nor would Ukrainians. It's one thing on which government and opposition agree.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: windjammer on February 19, 2014, 09:39:54 AM
Time to massively help them against tyranny!


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 19, 2014, 10:05:48 AM
Yes, I'm sure some of the neo-Nazi protesters occupying government buildings will do a fine job.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 19, 2014, 10:06:57 AM
If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

I know, but I can see some kind of Russian militar interventionism if a pseudo civil war starts. It would be an obvious movement.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 19, 2014, 10:22:01 AM
The region of Lviv has apparently sort of seceded:

The Western region of Lviv has reportedly declared independence from Ukraine in a potential breakthrough of the anti-government protests in the country.

Hours after protesters seized the prosecutor's office in central Lviv, the executive committee of the region council - also called the People's Rada – claimed control over the region.

"The regime has begun active military action against people [...] Dozens of people have been killed in Kyiv and hundreds have been wounded [...]Fulfilling the will of society, the executive committee of the Lviv region's council, the People's Rada, is assuming full responsibility for the fate of the region and its citizens," reads a statement.


http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-facing-civil-war-lviv-declares-independence-yanukovich-rule-1437092


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 19, 2014, 10:48:24 AM
Hopefully the duly elected government can continue to hold strong against mob violence.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 19, 2014, 11:04:05 AM
Maybe they should just get it over with and formally split the country into two. This would solve a heck of a lot of problems:

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 19, 2014, 11:29:24 AM
Maybe they should just get it over with and formally split the country into two. This would solve a heck of a lot of problems:[/img]

It's not that easy. Central regions are not that homogeneous:

()

The advantage for "europeists" is that they have a plurality of the votes of the youth even in the east.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 19, 2014, 11:33:13 AM
And Crimea should have never been part of Ukraine. It was a Kruschev's whim and I can't understand why it didn't go back to Russia when the USSR collapsed.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 19, 2014, 11:41:28 AM
Rumours of the Gov. allowing army to put things in order.

Sincerely, I can't see any solution for all this trouble.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 19, 2014, 11:46:26 AM
Pro-Russian Separatism Rises In Crimea As Ukraine's Crisis Unfolds

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-crimea-rising-separatism/25268303.html


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 19, 2014, 12:38:51 PM
The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Poland will be in Kiev tomorrow, so I guess it's unlikely that the Ukrainian government tries to do any bullsh**t while they're there.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 19, 2014, 12:51:16 PM
If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Ojala. From your lips to god´s ears.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 19, 2014, 12:56:29 PM
Maybe they should just get it over with and formally split the country into two. This would solve a heck of a lot of problems:

()

Except for Crimea, they all feel quite Ukrainian, actually. Even in Donetsk or Luhansk - even though in those places they consider their language to be Russian (linguistically, even the dialects across the border in Russia, in Krasnodar and thereabouts, have many features that suggest classifying them as Ukrainian, but as the languages are fairly close - like German and Dutch or Castilian and Catalan - what matters is which literary standard they prefer, and in Donetsk it is overwhelmingly Russian).  But, whatever language, it is far from certain that, say, Russian troops would be much welcomed almost anywhere (Sebastopol, probably, excluded).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Gustaf on February 19, 2014, 01:09:54 PM
Hopefully the duly elected government can continue to hold strong against mob violence.

You mean hopefully they can continue to massacre young protesters? I'm sure they can but I wouldn't be so gleeful about it.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 19, 2014, 02:21:00 PM

Says the naive "socialist" high schooler.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on February 19, 2014, 02:28:34 PM

I think he sunk into communism, at this point.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 19, 2014, 02:57:18 PM
Hopefully the duly elected government can continue to hold strong against mob violence.

You mean hopefully they can continue to massacre young protesters? I'm sure they can but I wouldn't be so gleeful about it.

I don't want to see anybody massacred, but I'm more and more concerned about the growing strenght of the far right nationalists whom, frankly, the Democrats can't control.

Trust me, those are people you don't want to gain any power.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 19, 2014, 03:39:06 PM

You do know the protesters range from centrists to neo-Nazis, right? Ukraine will either be a slave to Merkel, a slave to Putin, or a slave to local (literal, not even hyperbolic) fascists. It will not end well.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 19, 2014, 04:29:44 PM
The president is claiming there's a truce. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26267220)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: CatoMinor on February 19, 2014, 04:33:01 PM
Who exactly are the neo-nazis? (and please cite evidence of them being such) I have yet to see any swastikas or skinheads in the pictures of the groups attacking the gov't offices yet.

I have no doubt that there are likely some racists and anti-immigrants in the groups, but that does not equal neo-nazi.  


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Hnv1 on February 19, 2014, 04:37:34 PM
Who exactly are the neo-nazis? (and please cite evidence of them being such) I have yet to see any swastikas or skinheads in the pictures of the groups attacking the gov't offices yet.

I have no doubt that there are likely some racists and anti-immigrants in the groups, but that does not equal neo-nazi.  
Does the Slavic far right use the swastica often? I would think that it would be quite unpopular


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 19, 2014, 04:53:59 PM

You do know the protesters range from centrists to neo-Nazis, right? Ukraine will either be a slave to Merkel, a slave to Putin, or a slave to local (literal, not even hyperbolic) fascists. It will not end well.

Sos un pelotudo importante.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: CatoMinor on February 19, 2014, 05:10:19 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_LFrMcoEm4#t=1486432

live feed


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 19, 2014, 05:37:33 PM

You do know the protesters range from centrists to neo-Nazis, right? Ukraine will either be a slave to Merkel, a slave to Putin, or a slave to local (literal, not even hyperbolic) fascists. It will not end well.

Sos un pelotudo importante.

estoy de acuerdo :)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 19, 2014, 05:49:36 PM
Who exactly are the neo-nazis? (and please cite evidence of them being such) I have yet to see any swastikas or skinheads in the pictures of the groups attacking the gov't offices yet.

I have no doubt that there are likely some racists and anti-immigrants in the groups, but that does not equal neo-nazi.  

Fascist elements are not limited to swastika-displaying skinheads (although there were report that a group occupying one of the government buildings displayed a flag with the Celtic Cross. )

Most of those in question as proud ideological heir to Stepan Bandera (check this dude). They're hardly pro-European, liberal crowd. They're literally fascists (and, as most of you know, I hate to use this term in a vain). Sorry, but I have zero confidence in the Democratic opposition as long as they are mixing up with such people. Es-specially if these elements are beginning to dominate the process.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Gustaf on February 19, 2014, 08:43:20 PM
Who exactly are the neo-nazis? (and please cite evidence of them being such) I have yet to see any swastikas or skinheads in the pictures of the groups attacking the gov't offices yet.

I have no doubt that there are likely some racists and anti-immigrants in the groups, but that does not equal neo-nazi.  
Does the Slavic far right use the swastica often? I would think that it would be quite unpopular

Yeah, you would, but no it isn't, is the short answer. :P



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Deus Naturae on February 19, 2014, 11:51:01 PM
Kerry: U.S. open to sanctions. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-ukraine-sanctions-us-idUSBREA1I14620140219)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Miles on February 20, 2014, 03:07:45 AM
Protestors/police still clashing despite the truce. (http://www.france24.com/en/breaking/20140220-protesters-clash-with-police-ukraines-capital-despite-truce/?ns_campaign=breaking_news&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=reseaux_sociaux&ns_fee=0&ns_linkname=breaking_20140220_protesters_clash_with_police_ukraines_capital)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 20, 2014, 07:11:49 AM
Kerry: U.S. open to sanctions. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-ukraine-sanctions-us-idUSBREA1I14620140219)

Did we slap sanctions on Bahrain when they murdered protesters? Oh wait no, they're our ally so it's okay.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: windjammer on February 20, 2014, 07:21:39 AM
Kerry: U.S. open to sanctions. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-ukraine-sanctions-us-idUSBREA1I14620140219)

Did we slap sanctions on Bahrain when they murdered protesters? Oh wait no, they're our ally so it's okay.
Of course.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 20, 2014, 08:03:22 AM
Reports are both sides are now quite armed (with part of the Berkut switching sides). And there was some fire and some bodies, so I'm not very confident truce can be enforced :(

Who exactly are the neo-nazis? (and please cite evidence of them being such) I have yet to see any swastikas or skinheads in the pictures of the groups attacking the gov't offices yet.

I have no doubt that there are likely some racists and anti-immigrants in the groups, but that does not equal neo-nazi.  
Does the Slavic far right use the swastica often? I would think that it would be quite unpopular

Yeah, you would, but no it isn't, is the short answer. :P



If I could get five cents for every time I saw Slavic neo-nazis using swastika, I'd be more wealthy than Warren Buffet.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on February 20, 2014, 09:59:36 AM
Quote from: Oleksandr Feldman, president of the Ukrainian Jewish Committee and member of the parliament of Ukraine
From the moment of its spontaneous combustion on Nov. 21 and for weeks thereafter, the mass pro-European Union encampment in the center of Kiev appeared to represent the epitome of 21st-century European values.
The activities of the vast, multi-ethnic crowd in Maidan Square quickly came to be called Euromaidan and celebrated themes of democracy, pluralism and an end to government corruption. But the uplifting mood began to change in early December when Ukraine’s three main opposition parties – Fatherland, UDAR and Svoboda – began to take control of Euromaidan.
Activists of the ultranationalist, anti-Semitic and grotesquely misnamed Svoboda (Freedom) soon came to the fore, giving the protests a progressively darker and more violent edge. A turning point came during a mass march through the center of Kiev on Dec. 10, when a group of Svoboda activists, led by members of parliament, toppled a statue of Lenin while chanting an ominous warning to the president: “Yanukovych, you’ll be next!”
Ever since the breakthrough success of Svoboda in the 2010 elections, leaders of Fatherland and UDAR repeatedly have declined entreaties from myself and many other supporters of democracy inUkraine to break their electoral alliance with Svoboda, apparently seeing the party and its leader, Oleh Tyahnybok, as essential partners in the coalition to topple President Viktor Yanukovych.
Yet during the last days of December, as momentum slipped from the demonstrators with news that Yanukovych had buttressed his position by accepting a $15 billion loan package from Russian President Vladmir Putin, Fatherland leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk and UDAR chief Vitali Klitschko must have become acutely aware that Svoboda’s growing profile was tarnishing the protesters’ claim to membership in the camp of modern-day Europe and not the fascist Europe of 70 years ago.
This became crystal clear during a cringe-inducing vertep, a comedic skit based on Ukrainian folk tradition, performed on the main stage at Euromaidan on New Year’s Eve. Based equally on the birth of Jesus and contemporary Ukrainian politics, the lead role was played by a Svoboda parliamentarian named Bogdan Benyuk, who donned black garb and sidelocks to play a stereotypical Orthodox Jewish wheeler-dealer character called Zhyd (Kike). Explaining to the crowd that he is involved in various occupations – including banking, stock market speculation, loan sharking and hosting a talk show – the Jewish oligarch character sings gleefully, “East and West belong to me; our people are everywhere.”
Zhyd creates problems for the newborn Jesus and contemplates taking a bribe from a character evoking both Yanukovych and King Herod to help him crush the protesters. Fascinatingly, the Jew switches sides and joins the opposition when he learns that on orders from the king, the regime’s forces are preparing to kill Jewish firstborns. The audience is given to understand that the shift in loyalty is due not to a belated outburst of conscience, but rather because Zhyd is worried the regime may turn on his own people.
The bottom line of the supposedly all-in-good-fun skit – it was followed by a solemn singing of theUkrainian national anthem and congratulatory speeches by Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyahnybok – appeared to be that while perfidious Jewish oligarchs care only for the welfare of Jews, given their supposed power and influence it’s preferable for the opposition coalition to have them inside the tent pissing out rather than the other way around.
Even more jarring imagery came to the fore the following day when 15,000 opposition members greeted the new year by marching in a Svoboda-sponsored torchlight parade down Central Kiev’s Kreshatik Boulevard in commemoration of the 105th anniversary of the birth of Stepan Bandera, an ally of Nazi Germany whose followers participated in massacres of Ukrainian Jews. Marchers carried red and black nationalist banners and shouted nationalist slogans as they cheered Tyahnybok and expressed their undying love for Bandera.
On Jan. 7, the U.S. Senate unanimously adopted a resolution calling on the Ukrainian authorities to refrain from the use of force and maintain a national reconciliation dialogue with the opposition, while calling on all parties to refrain from hate speech and anti-Semitic actions. Clearly, while still sympathetic with the declared democratic aspirations of the opposition, neither the United States nor the European Union will long tolerate the growing ascendancy of Svoboda.
To salvage their remaining credibility, Yatsenyuk and Klitschko must immediately denounce the neo-fascist drift of recent weeks and break off their alliance with Svoboda. Then they should sit and negotiate with the Ukrainian government and leaders of the country’s vibrant civil society, including all the religious communities, to find a solution to the protracted standoff in Kiev that gives hope for a democratic future for Ukraine based on rule of law.

Convinced now ? I'm with Snowstalker and Kalwejt on this one.

 



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 20, 2014, 10:21:53 AM
Reminds me a bit of Syria, of all places.

Authoritarian government supresses initially peaceful protests, which results in the protests gradually being taken over by extremists and a civil war-like situation. Replace Islamists with neo-Nazis.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Person Man on February 20, 2014, 10:38:24 AM
Reminds me a bit of Syria, of all places.

Authoritarian government supresses initially peaceful protests, which results in the protests gradually being taken over by right-wing extremists and a civil war-like situation. Replace Islamists with neo-Nazis.
Even easier.

The main difference is that this is happening in the backyard between  global allies and rivals, not regional allies and rivals. This probably increases the chances of this escalating by a small amount or not.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 20, 2014, 11:15:27 AM
The French, German, and Polish foreign ministers have apparently decided to extent their stay in Kiev and remain there till tomorrow at least. Today they met with Yanukovych and leaders of the opposition.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: traininthedistance on February 20, 2014, 11:49:50 AM
Well, Timothy Snyder (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/20/fascism-russia-and-ukraine/) writing in the NY Review of Books is unconvinced about this whole "protesters are fascists" idea and wants to turn it back on Putin & co.:

Quote
The protests in the Maidan, we are told again and again by Russian propaganda and by the Kremlin’s friends in Ukraine, mean the return of National Socialism to Europe. The Russian foreign minister, in Munich, lectured the Germans about their support of people who salute Hitler. The Russian media continually make the claim that the Ukrainians who protest are Nazis. Naturally, it is important to be attentive to the far right in Ukrainian politics and history. It is still a serious presence today, although less important than the far right in France, Austria, or the Netherlands. Yet it is the Ukrainian regime rather than its opponents that resorts to anti-Semitism, instructing its riot police that the opposition is led by Jews. In other words, the Ukrainian government is telling itself that its opponents are Jews and us that its opponents are Nazis.

...

Following the same strategy, Yanukovych’s government claimed, entirely falsely, that the price of closer relations with the European Union was the recognition of gay marriage in Ukraine. Kiselyov is quite open about the Russian media strategy toward the Maidan: to “apply the correct political technology,” then “bring it to the point of overheating” and bring to bear “the magnifying glass of TV and the Internet.”

Why exactly do people with such views think they can call other people fascists? And why does anyone on the Western left take them seriously?

I don't claim to be particularly well-informed about the situation there, but food for thought perhaps.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 20, 2014, 12:00:12 PM
The nationalists are like the 10% of the opposition. I would be more concerned about the far right in countries like France.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on February 20, 2014, 12:03:40 PM
There's a near 0% chance of the fascists taking power in Ukraine. They don't have anywhere near wide enough support, being loud and vocal doesn't make up for that. Plus they hate the EU as much as the current government.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 20, 2014, 12:05:34 PM
Did we slap sanctions on Bahrain when they murdered protesters? Oh wait no, they're our ally so it's okay.

Well of course. It would be stupid to make foreign policy solely on humanitarian grounds. The goal is to gain influence and power, not to be nice and moral.

The reason I think the West should support the "rebels" in this case is almost solely to undermine Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 20, 2014, 12:07:37 PM
This thread reminds me for some reason of what a joke network Russia Today is, and how it's frustrating that so many people think they are being "alternative" by watching it.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on February 20, 2014, 12:07:58 PM
Convinced now ? I'm with Snowstalker and Kalwejt on this one.

He was elected to Parliament as a member of the government party. So, obliviously, he will try to remove all credibility to the opposition.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 20, 2014, 12:10:39 PM
EU has agreed on a sanctions package that includes asset freezes and visa bans, per BBC. Oligarchs, alas, aren't on that list.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franknburger on February 20, 2014, 12:20:30 PM
German TV yesterday had a longer feature from a  team that joined Klitchko over a few days when he was travelling to several provincial capitals. They showed him discussing with a local Yanukovich supporter who strongly opposed the Ukraine opening towards the EU, as that would lead to the legalisation of gay marriage. Oh, this great Soviet Union tradition of disinformation.

On my company's Christmas party, I met an old colleague and friend from Ukraine and asked him, half jokingly, how the Maidan was those days. Turned out that he had been spending almost every night there, and he didn't report anything about Neo-Nazis (which he sure would have been concerned about if that was a real issue). According to him, the overwhelming mood was (a) "We feel European, not Soviet/Russian" and (b) "We need the oligarchs to stop, and we need Europe's help in that". Haven't heard of him since, though, maybe the mood has changed in the meantime. But overall, it reminds me more of post-Soeharto Indonesia, where agent provocateurs tried to stifle anti-Chinese action in order to provide the military with a reason to keep power, than of Syria.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on February 20, 2014, 12:34:47 PM
I think we can expect both sides to be anti-semitic. It's Ukraine, after all...

I think the bad guys, aka the government, are clearly bad. I think the good guys, aka the opponents, are mostly bad and pursuing other interests than freedom and democracy for all...

So I guess it's another of those lose-lose situations. Don't we get a lot of those...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 20, 2014, 12:37:30 PM
There's a near 0% chance of the fascists taking power in Ukraine.They don't have anywhere near wide enough support, being loud and vocal doesn't make up for that.

Formal membership-wise? Yes, but you obviously know very little about Western Ukraine. It's a very fruitful ground for such types. You really should do some reading on Bandera, who is a hero in the region and to whom Ukrainian far-rightist are proud ideological heirs.

I can't see any fascist governments in Kiev either, but what I can see and what I'm scared about is these types gaining more and more influence. History shows what they're capable of.

Quote
Plus they hate the EU as much as the current government.

You point being? Of course they do, but why should that stop them from joining the protests? It's in their best interest to be involved.


I hope it will never come to this. Having a civil war on my border is the last thing I'd like to see.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 20, 2014, 04:40:40 PM
Well, Timothy Snyder (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/20/fascism-russia-and-ukraine/) writing in the NY Review of Books is unconvinced about this whole "protesters are fascists" idea and wants to turn it back on Putin & co.:

Quote
The protests in the Maidan, we are told again and again by Russian propaganda and by the Kremlin’s friends in Ukraine, mean the return of National Socialism to Europe. The Russian foreign minister, in Munich, lectured the Germans about their support of people who salute Hitler. The Russian media continually make the claim that the Ukrainians who protest are Nazis. Naturally, it is important to be attentive to the far right in Ukrainian politics and history. It is still a serious presence today, although less important than the far right in France, Austria, or the Netherlands. Yet it is the Ukrainian regime rather than its opponents that resorts to anti-Semitism, instructing its riot police that the opposition is led by Jews. In other words, the Ukrainian government is telling itself that its opponents are Jews and us that its opponents are Nazis.

...

Following the same strategy, Yanukovych’s government claimed, entirely falsely, that the price of closer relations with the European Union was the recognition of gay marriage in Ukraine. Kiselyov is quite open about the Russian media strategy toward the Maidan: to “apply the correct political technology,” then “bring it to the point of overheating” and bring to bear “the magnifying glass of TV and the Internet.”

Why exactly do people with such views think they can call other people fascists? And why does anyone on the Western left take them seriously?

I don't claim to be particularly well-informed about the situation there, but food for thought perhaps.


To be honest, there's a fair chance that both Nazis and Jews are among the protesters.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 20, 2014, 05:19:34 PM
Ukrainian parliament has voted to end the so-called anti-terrorist operations in the country.

Now we have to see if Yanukovych and the security forces comply.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Illini on February 20, 2014, 05:46:14 PM
I think the bad guys, aka the government, are clearly bad. I think the good guys, aka the opponents, are mostly bad and pursuing other interests than freedom and democracy for all...

I disagree. Euromaidan has been gradually shifting to a more pro-EU tone over the course of the last few months. Obviously a power vacuum would create potential for an authoritarian regime, but I would not say that the current protests are showing that at the moment.

Anyway, why is Snowstalker so reluctant to at least entirely criticize the existing government? The pro-Russia faction consists of many neoliberal, capitalist, and religious orthodox viewpoints.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 20, 2014, 05:48:13 PM
There were reports earlier that the EU FMs had gotten an agreement for early parliamentary and presidential elections, but subsequently backtracked. Klitschko also said they haven't reached agreement.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Illini on February 20, 2014, 05:57:12 PM
70 killed, up to 550 injured today alone

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-kiev-death-toll-955/


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Deus Naturae on February 20, 2014, 06:00:10 PM
John McCain and Chris Murphy join the calls for sanctions. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/john-mccain-chris-murphy-ukraine-sanctions-103684.html)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 20, 2014, 07:03:33 PM
According to SPIEGEL ONLINE's Ukraine live ticker, Viktor Yanukovych, the leaders of the opposition, members of the Ukrainian parliament, and the German and Polish foreign ministers are in Yanukovych's office at this hour to hammer out some sort of deal.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 20, 2014, 09:10:10 PM
Did we slap sanctions on Bahrain when they murdered protesters? Oh wait no, they're our ally so it's okay.

Well of course. It would be stupid to make foreign policy solely on humanitarian grounds. The goal is to gain influence and power, not to be nice and moral.

The reason I think the West should support the "rebels" in this case is almost solely to undermine Russia.

Again, why do you believe in hostility for the sake of being hostile? That's idiotic.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 20, 2014, 09:14:59 PM
humanitarian grounds. The goal is to gain influence and power, not to be nice and moral.

The reason I think the West should support the "rebels" in this case is almost solely to undermine Russia.

This.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 20, 2014, 09:47:32 PM
Why?

If you aren't legitimately opposed to their ideology, why bother to undermine them?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 20, 2014, 10:02:09 PM
Guys, stop bullsh**tting about this sh**t. People are dying. I myself may have many problems with this or that, but when the government sends snipers to shoot citizens in the streets, it is time to shut up - at least until the moment when that government is no longer there.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Illini on February 20, 2014, 10:25:06 PM
Guys, stop bullsh**tting about this sh**t. People are dying. I myself may have many problems with this or that, but when the government sends snipers to shoot citizens in the streets, it is time to shut up - at least until the moment when that government is no longer there.

Why shut up rather than speaking out against the government there?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 20, 2014, 10:31:10 PM
Guys, stop bullsh**tting about this sh**t. People are dying. I myself may have many problems with this or that, but when the government sends snipers to shoot citizens in the streets, it is time to shut up - at least until the moment when that government is no longer there.

What?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Illini on February 20, 2014, 10:37:42 PM
Lviv has declared independence from the Ukrainian central government

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-facing-civil-war-lviv-declares-independence-yanukovich-rule-1437092


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 20, 2014, 11:19:22 PM
Lviv has declared independence from the Ukrainian central government

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-facing-civil-war-lviv-declares-independence-yanukovich-rule-1437092

It is not just Lviv. Basically, the entire west is not under the control of the central government. Not merely the usual suspects (Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk), but a few others as well (Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytsky) and even the Transcarpathia, which has always been the one pro-government bit in the West.

In Khmelnytsky, for instance, the head of the local office of the State Security Agency (SBU - the ex-KGB) was arrested during his appearance at the regional legislature (he was trying to explain/apologize for the killing of a demonstrator the previous day by his men).  He was  taken away by the members of the local military unit, which had declared its allegiance to the local authority. In Lutsk (capital of Volyn) the (appointed) governor was refusing to resign - after which he was handcuffed and forced to kneel before the demonstrators. In Transcarpathia the local faction of the governing party (the only sizeable faction of this sort in the West) disbanded itself, with the members leaving the party (the party´s national MPs from the region have also declared themselves independents and participated in today´s opposition-led meeting of the Rada in Kiev).  The Transcarpathian unit of the police special forces (Berkut) declared its allegiance to "the people" and is refusing commands from its superiors. Basically, if I get it right, pretty much anything west of, as well as some bits further east (Poltava), is now out of the central government control to full or partial extent.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 20, 2014, 11:28:46 PM
The Army's deputy chief of staff has resigned, BBC citing local media.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 20, 2014, 11:38:24 PM
The Army's deputy chief of staff has resigned, BBC citing local media.

Yep. BTW, Yanukovich yesterday replaced the Head of Armed forces - the new guy is the former Head of the Navy (born in Belarus, based all his life in pro-Russian Crimea).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 20, 2014, 11:41:31 PM
The real danger is today in Crimea, actually. At noon local time there is an extraordinary session of the local legislature. If the Russians. The rumor is, it will give the Russians the pretext to get in, by asking for "help". The Tatars are in arms - but there aren´t many other pro-Ukrainian groups there.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 21, 2014, 01:04:20 AM
Lviv has declared independence from the Ukrainian central government

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-facing-civil-war-lviv-declares-independence-yanukovich-rule-1437092

In before I hear the first "time to retake Lwów"...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 21, 2014, 01:06:59 AM
humanitarian grounds. The goal is to gain influence and power, not to be nice and moral.

The reason I think the West should support the "rebels" in this case is almost solely to undermine Russia.

This.

Go meddle in your own f**king hemisphere, please.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 21, 2014, 03:55:50 AM
Yanukovych has apparently agreed to a compromise early this morning, but the opposition doesn't seem to be fully satisfied yet. Another round of Government-Opposition-Germany/Poland talks are scheduled for noon today.

UPDATE: So far, the agreement seems to include a re-instatement of the amendment to the Ukrainian constitution of 2004 which had limited the powers of the president, the formation of a coalition government, and presidential elections in December of this year.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 21, 2014, 06:39:59 AM
A good source for direct up-to-date information is the Twitter account of the Polish foreign minister:

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/

Quote
Radosław Sikorski ‏@sikorskiradek 6 Min.

Together with F.W.Steinmeier on the way to meet Maidan activists to discuss the draft agreement.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zuza on February 21, 2014, 06:46:44 AM
Presidential elections already were scheduled for February 2015, only 2 months later. It would make more sense to call an early parliamentary elections.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 21, 2014, 06:48:58 AM
Yeah, it seems that Yanukovych is unwilling to step down now is the main objection opposition leaders have to the proposed agreement.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 21, 2014, 06:54:08 AM
I think the bad guys, aka the government, are clearly bad. I think the good guys, aka the opponents, are mostly bad and pursuing other interests than freedom and democracy for all...

I disagree. Euromaidan has been gradually shifting to a more pro-EU tone over the course of the last few months. Obviously a power vacuum would create potential for an authoritarian regime, but I would not say that the current protests are showing that at the moment.

Anyway, why is Snowstalker so reluctant to at least entirely criticize the existing government? The pro-Russia faction consists of many neoliberal, capitalist, and religious orthodox viewpoints.

The pro-Russian faction is just as awful, yes, but I find it necessary to push back against the western narrative of this and Venezuela being "noble protesters united against pure evil governments!!!11!"

For the record, I unfortunately have little faith in the proposed peace deal.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 21, 2014, 07:30:03 AM
The pro-Russian faction is just as awful, yes, but I find it necessary to push back against the western narrative of this and Venezuela being "noble protesters united against pure evil governments!!!11!"

Well, obviously there are always shades of grey.

Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King possessed some truly negative traits and the Western Allies did horrible things during WWII.

There no 100% morally pure characters. Perhaps the human need to believe in 100% morally pure characters sometimes has the result that people are made bigger than they are, but then again we won't be able change to that.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 21, 2014, 08:11:20 AM
Breaking: Maidan Council agrees to sign compromise with Yanukovych.

UPDATE: Full text of the agreement here... http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/671350/publicationFile/190027/140221-UKR_Erklaerung.pdf


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 09:50:50 AM
The street isn't happy, primarily because Yanukovych remains in office till the election.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 21, 2014, 09:51:58 AM
Guys, stop bullsh**tting about this sh**t. People are dying.

Lots of people as well...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 21, 2014, 10:07:21 AM
The street isn't happy, primarily because Yanukovych remains in office till the election.

The question is how large the share of protestors is who are truly disaffected by this agreement. The coming weeks will show, I guess.

In any case, the Ukrainian Parliament just voted to restore the Constitution of 2004, which was the first demand of the agreement.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 10:19:15 AM
Plus Tymoshenko is still in jail and Klitschko's residency issue is still unclear.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 21, 2014, 11:37:33 AM
How many times has Ukraine gone back and fourth, chipping away power from the president only to give it back a few years later?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 11:39:00 AM
Rada has just voted to release Tymoshenko. 12 more MPs have left POR.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 21, 2014, 11:44:44 AM
Rada has just voted to release Tymoshenko.

The Ukrainian Parliament has also voted to release all protesters who have been arrested the last couple of days. And they voted to remove the Minister of Interior from office.

Mhm, if the Maidan protestors keep pushing now maybe they could get rid of Yanukovych after all. Today's agreement doesn't explicitly exclude an impeachment. :P


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franknburger on February 21, 2014, 12:42:11 PM
This is a mail I received today from my Ukrainian friend:

Quote
Dear Friends and Colleagues,

Many of you have been doing business in Ukraine or at least have been in this beautiful country once. Now we face difficult  times. People of Ukraine need  your support and understanding . Please, have a look at below video, which clearly explains the concerns of Ukrainian people.

I’ll appreciate if you could share this video with colleagues and friends for better understanding. Each of us could do some little things for support.

This is really essential if  a global world and global society are not just nice declarations.
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP0Lx40WTWs
 
We will overcome “with a little help from our friends” 
Many thanks,

Sasha


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 02:46:42 PM
Go meddle in your own f**king hemisphere, please.

Our interests expand beyond our own hemisphere, sorry.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 21, 2014, 03:07:25 PM
Go meddle in your own f**king hemisphere, please.

Our interests expand beyond our own hemisphere, sorry.

Well, if you think that by getting involved in the way you spoke of now, and totally destablizing Central Europe when the peaceful resolutuion is still possible, you're going to advance the U.S. interest, then you're just naive. If only it will make Putin very happy.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 03:09:44 PM
Protestors are calling for Yanukovych to leave by 10 AM tomorrow or else. Opposition leaders got a hostile reception when addressing the crowd. Meanwhile in the Rada, an impeachment bill has been filed.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 21, 2014, 04:10:12 PM
Decent article, at least from my perspective. (http://socialistworker.org/2014/02/05/whats-at-stake-in-ukraine)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 04:31:25 PM
A lot of unconfirmed reports that Yanukovych and some of his top allies have either fled by air to Kharkiv or from Kharkiv to Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 04:33:09 PM
Well, if you think that by getting involved in the way you spoke of now, and totally destablizing Central Europe when the peaceful resolutuion is still possible, you're going to advance the U.S. interest, then you're just naive. If only it will make Putin very happy.

The idea isn't to prevent a peaceful resolution, it is to make sure that said resolution is in favor of the faction which benefits our interests. The idea is to bring Ukraine close to the EU in the long-term. This is a chance to peel a vassal away from Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 04:36:24 PM
Ukrainian media outlet cites presidential administration sources as saying Yanukovych and a handful of top allies and guards are Kharkiv-bound. (http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-4-yanukovych-teeters/#2126)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 04:38:12 PM
A lot of unconfirmed reports that Yanukovych and some of his top allies have either fled by air to Kharkiv or from Kharkiv to Russia.

Great news!


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 21, 2014, 04:38:34 PM
Ukrainian media outlet cites presidential administration sources as saying Yanukovych and a handful of top allies and guards are Kharkiv-bound. (http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-4-yanukovych-teeters/#2126)

Strikes me as an indicator that the peace deal isn't going well.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 04:52:10 PM
Ukrainian media reporting that there's 20000 anti-Yanukovych protestors marching in Kharkiv now. Here's an alleged video. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s72NLnabzcY&sns=fb&app=desktop)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 04:58:01 PM
Yanukovych's personal belongings are being evacuated from his Kyiv residence, local media say.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 05:08:04 PM
Apparently he'll make a statement about "the split of Ukraine", whatever the hell that means. Hopefully only metaphorical.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franzl on February 21, 2014, 05:21:35 PM
Go meddle in your own f**king hemisphere, please.

Our interests expand beyond our own hemisphere, sorry.

Who cares about the Ukranian people, right, as long as it serves American interests.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 05:31:36 PM
Who cares about the Ukranian people, right, as long as it serves American interests.

Welcome to geo-politics.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on February 21, 2014, 05:35:26 PM
Who cares about the Ukranian people, right, as long as it serves American interests.

Welcome to geo-politics.
1989 called. They want their approach to foreign policy back (duh-dum-ching).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 05:43:31 PM
1989 called. They want their approach to foreign policy back (duh-dum-ching).

It's not a Cold War thing. This is how it's always been done. It's like does anyone really think the UK went to war with Germany in 1914 because they were just "so concerned" about poor little Belgium. No, they went to war to stop Germany from becoming the dominant European power generally. Belgium was just a casus belli.

It's the same now as it ever was. The United States has global interests and they will be upheld, although sometimes a humanitarian mask is necessary (ala Libya 2011).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 21, 2014, 05:50:35 PM
1989 called. They want their approach to foreign policy back (duh-dum-ching).

It's not a Cold War thing. This is how it's always been done. It's like does anyone really think the UK went to war with Germany in 1914 because they were just "so concerned" about poor little Belgium. No, they went to war to stop Germany from becoming the dominant European power generally. Belgium was just a casus belli.

It's the same now as it ever was. The United States has global interests and they will be upheld, although sometimes a humanitarian mask is necessary (ala Libya 2011).

So we should just embrace geopolitical sociopathy instead of backing away from it?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on February 21, 2014, 05:59:13 PM
1989 called. They want their approach to foreign policy back (duh-dum-ching).

It's not a Cold War thing. This is how it's always been done. It's like does anyone really think the UK went to war with Germany in 1914 because they were just "so concerned" about poor little Belgium. No, they went to war to stop Germany from becoming the dominant European power generally. Belgium was just a casus belli.

It's the same now as it ever was. The United States has global interests and they will be upheld, although sometimes a humanitarian mask is necessary (ala Libya 2011).
America should be keeping the Russians at bay in North and South America. The EU is big enough of a bloc to take care of itself.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 06:11:17 PM
So we should just embrace geopolitical sociopathy instead of backing away from it?

If only life were that simple. "Geo-political sociopathy" is geo-politics. Not to say there isn't room for humanitarianism (for example I think we should've intervened in Rwanda) but at the end of the day we have to do what is necessary lest our enemies gain the upper hand.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 21, 2014, 06:15:17 PM
I know you'll find it very difficult to do this, but, please, please, please, please stop being a c-nt.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franzl on February 21, 2014, 06:23:02 PM
So we should just embrace geopolitical sociopathy instead of backing away from it?

If only life were that simple. "Geo-political sociopathy" is geo-politics. Not to say there isn't room for humanitarianism (for example I think we should've intervened in Rwanda) but at the end of the day we have to do what is necessary lest our enemies gain the upper hand.

Spoken like a true HP. Congratulations.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on February 21, 2014, 06:26:09 PM
Did someone did an IP check to be sure than Cory and krazen aren't the same person?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 21, 2014, 06:32:09 PM
Different subspecies of reprobate, I fear.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 07:08:27 PM
So we should just embrace geopolitical sociopathy instead of backing away from it?

If only life were that simple. "Geo-political sociopathy" is geo-politics. Not to say there isn't room for humanitarianism (for example I think we should've intervened in Rwanda) but at the end of the day we have to do what is necessary lest our enemies gain the upper hand.

Spoken like a true HP. Congratulations.

Sorry real life is to "mean" for your tastes.

So does anybody have any factual disagreements with my assertion?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franzl on February 21, 2014, 07:14:34 PM
So we should just embrace geopolitical sociopathy instead of backing away from it?

If only life were that simple. "Geo-political sociopathy" is geo-politics. Not to say there isn't room for humanitarianism (for example I think we should've intervened in Rwanda) but at the end of the day we have to do what is necessary lest our enemies gain the upper hand.

Spoken like a true HP. Congratulations.

Sorry real life is to "mean" for your tastes.

So does anybody have any factual disagreements with my assertion?

You misunderstand me. I'm not commenting on what may or may not influence American foreign policy. Rather, I'm personally identifying you as an HP, the reasons for which you've demonstrated quite well in this thread. I imagine you won't have the slightest idea why, but that's ok.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 21, 2014, 07:23:17 PM
You misunderstand me. I'm not commenting on what may or may not influence American foreign policy. Rather, I'm personally identifying you as an HP, the reasons for which you've demonstrated quite well in this thread. I imagine you won't have the slightest idea why, but that's ok.

I'm sorry if the type of cynicism that's required to make foreign policy for a major power is too much for you to understand. This isn't exactly anything new.

And of course you haven't demonstrated actual factual reasons to disagree with my assertion so whatever.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2014, 07:29:31 PM
Security services have opened a criminal case against the mayor of Kharkiv for promoting separatism.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 21, 2014, 09:34:39 PM
1989 called. They want their approach to foreign policy back (duh-dum-ching).

It's not a Cold War thing. This is how it's always been done. It's like does anyone really think the UK went to war with Germany in 1914 because they were just "so concerned" about poor little Belgium. No, they went to war to stop Germany from becoming the dominant European power generally. Belgium was just a casus belli.

It's the same now as it ever was. The United States has global interests and they will be upheld, although sometimes a humanitarian mask is necessary (ala Libya 2011).

When someone says your ideas are stupid, it's not a winning idea to come back and say "hey, my ideas led to World War 1!"


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franzl on February 22, 2014, 04:27:32 AM
You misunderstand me. I'm not commenting on what may or may not influence American foreign policy. Rather, I'm personally identifying you as an HP, the reasons for which you've demonstrated quite well in this thread. I imagine you won't have the slightest idea why, but that's ok.

I'm sorry if the type of cynicism that's required to make foreign policy for a major power is too much for you to understand. This isn't exactly anything new.

And of course you haven't demonstrated actual factual reasons to disagree with my assertion so whatever.

As I expected.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Silent Hunter on February 22, 2014, 04:38:04 AM
The speaker of the parliament has resigned and the opposition have occupied the presidential offices; President reportedly in Kharkiv.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 22, 2014, 06:05:24 AM
The Ministry of Interior and the Ukrainian Police have supposedly switched sides and pledged their support to the protestors now.

It seems that Yanukovych signing the compromise with the opposition was widely intepreted as a de facto surrender of the president. The precise content of the agreement has become more or less irrelevant now, but it certainly helped setting things in motion...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 06:13:24 AM
So we should just embrace geopolitical sociopathy instead of backing away from it?

If only life were that simple. "Geo-political sociopathy" is geo-politics. Not to say there isn't room for humanitarianism (for example I think we should've intervened in Rwanda) but at the end of the day we have to do what is necessary lest our enemies gain the upper hand.

Spoken like a true HP. Congratulations.

Sorry real life is to "mean" for your tastes.

I mind you being an HP. I mind that your conception of reality is very unrealistic.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 22, 2014, 06:35:43 AM
Ukrainian Parliament has just elected Arsen Avakov as the new Minister of Interior.

Avakov is a member of Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 22, 2014, 07:44:59 AM
Tymoshenko apparently has been released from prison.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 22, 2014, 08:57:20 AM
Yanukovich says on live tv that he is not resigning.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 09:03:54 AM
Yanukovych is not resigning, and says current parliament is illegal. Hmm, maybe an arrest warrant executed by the military should be forthcoming.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 09:10:24 AM
Says east is "stable" unlike west.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 22, 2014, 09:15:11 AM
Pics from Yanukovich's residence:

()

()

()

Private zoo:

()

()

()

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 09:31:30 AM
21st century Marcos, and his family has plenty of loot too. Man's clearly insane.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 09:34:09 AM
21st century Marcos, and his family has plenty of loot too. Man's clearly insane.

Nah, he's just your very typical oligarch.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 09:36:27 AM
I meant what he's doing now is insane, not the loot.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 09:38:13 AM
I meant what he's doing now is insane, not the loot.

I don't know. He might very well be looking for a way out ot the country, which would be all but insane.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 09:42:18 AM
He could've taken a plane to Moscow. Didn't.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 09:49:23 AM
Kharkiv MPs are calling for militias to be formed, apparently. (Paging the Army?) But police in one of the biggest eastern cities have joined the protestors.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RodPresident on February 22, 2014, 09:55:43 AM
Things are going to become Civil War. Party of Regions Rada members are going to resign not only on fear, but because amnesty promises and that EU people need them to get majority. Yanukovich went to his power base (east) than get massacrated in Kiev. Power balance is in Armed Forces and Putin hands. If Putin promises support and Army loyal forces keep around, Yanukovich can build a government in Kharkiv or Donetsk to wage a war against East Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 09:58:38 AM
Army has promised neutrality. Lavrov is denouncing the opposition and demanding that the EU use their influence to implement the agreement.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:00:02 AM
Sikorski just Tweeted this. (https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/437229992117035009)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:13:31 AM
The Rada has voted to remove Yanukovych. Now voting on a May 27 presidential election.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:24:52 AM
May 25 presidential election. Bildt: Ukrainian territorial integrity guaranteed by all European countries. (https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/437245754466639872)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:30:10 AM
He's been located at a Kharkiv golf club. Only 40km from Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:48:58 AM
Reports that Tymoshenko has left prison.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on February 22, 2014, 10:50:03 AM
He's been located at a Kharkiv golf club. Only 40km from Russia.

What!? He's f[inks]ing playing golf!?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:54:06 AM
Hague: he and Steinmeier agreed to support new government, push for IMF package. (https://twitter.com/WilliamJHague/status/437245242266632192)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:58:22 AM
Tymoshenko is apparently headed to Maidan.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 11:06:19 AM
Russian TV is broadcasting Yanukovych's "alternative congress", which also has Russian MPs in attendance.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 11:13:09 AM
The mayor and governor of Kharkiv have fled to Russia. (http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/192039.html)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 22, 2014, 11:18:06 AM
Tymoshenko leaving the prison:

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 11:50:06 AM
Parliament speaker (who's also Acting President): Yanukovych tried to flee to Russia but is now in his hometown of Donetsk. His former interior minister was also given an ultimatum by Belarus to quit the country by 1800 local.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 12:03:15 PM
Apparently border officials stopped him from boarding a plane.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 22, 2014, 12:40:30 PM
I mind you being an HP. I mind that your conception of reality is very unrealistic.

The opposite is true. The fact that self-interest dominates international relations is backed up by almost all of human history.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 12:42:06 PM
I mind you being an HP. I mind that your conception of reality is very unrealistic.

The opposite is true. The fact that self-interest dominates international relations is backed up by almost all of human history.



Unsuprisingly you're missing the point.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 22, 2014, 12:43:49 PM
Unsuprisingly you're missing the point.

You and Franzl keep saying vague things like this, but have yet to provide any supporting logic whatsoever.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 22, 2014, 01:15:20 PM
Fine, whatever. You are a very clever little boy. HAVE A GOLD STAR!!!!11


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Nhoj on February 22, 2014, 01:35:50 PM
It seems that some of the party of regions members voted for his removal.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: afleitch on February 22, 2014, 01:37:34 PM
Fine, whatever. You are a very clever little boy. HAVE A GOLD STAR!!!!11

Only I get to hand out gold stars on here ;) And Cory hasn't done his homework so no red pen smiley face either.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 02:08:00 PM
Unsuprisingly you're missing the point.

You and Franzl keep saying vague things like this, but have yet to provide any supporting logic whatsoever.

I have explained a page or two ago. It's not my fault you need to work on your reading comprehension.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franknburger on February 22, 2014, 02:21:27 PM
Cory, while you might think Ukraine to be a good case for a seminar on "Basics of Geopolitics", there are actually some here who know, and are concerned about, real people living there. Just imagine for a moment we wouldn't be talking Ukraine but Canada or Cuba instead, and consider whether in that case you would still stick to your statements.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 02:43:53 PM
Ahkmetov stressed the need for a "strong, independent and united Ukraine."  (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/world/europe/ukraine.html?hpw&rref=world) So if Yanukovych is planning some sort of secessionist gambit, his top oligarchic ally won't support it.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RodPresident on February 22, 2014, 03:09:45 PM
Ahkmetov stressed the need for a "strong, independent and united Ukraine."  (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/world/europe/ukraine.html?hpw&rref=world) So if Yanukovych is planning some sort of secessionist gambit, his top oligarchic ally won't support it.
Oligarchs fear international isolation if they support separatism. Akhmetov's Shakthar can be expelled of European competitions and his money can be freezed. And oligarchs know that they'll be kingmakers in Presidential election between Klitschko and Tymoshenko.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 03:18:23 PM
Speaking of that, no idea what'll happen there. Will rump POR present a candidate? Will the party leaders change their earlier agreement to all run in the jungle? That presumed a runoff with Yanukovych or now, whoever from POR might take his place.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Pingvin on February 22, 2014, 03:20:44 PM
POR is pretty much an "one-man party", so I really doubt it. Only if they make some kind of rushed coalition with other Russia-oriented forces.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 22, 2014, 03:29:21 PM
So is anyone here actually trying to understand this on its own terms as opposed to putting and inserting inappropriate narratives to make this situation seem 'coherent'?

The particular narrative chosen, of course, depends on the arbitrary whims and intuitions of the poster in question and thus a pretty unremarkable 'analysis'.

I support whichever side is pro-civil unions ftr.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on February 22, 2014, 03:37:08 PM
So is anyone here actually trying to understand this on its own terms as opposed to putting and inserting inappropriate narratives to make this situation seem 'coherent'?

The particular narrative chosen, of course, depends on the arbitrary whims and intuitions of the poster in question and thus a pretty unremarkable 'analysis'.

I support whichever side is pro-civil unions ftr.

I'm just waiting for Thomas Freidman to weigh in with his lucid commentary, naturally.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zuza on February 22, 2014, 04:31:30 PM
I support whichever side is pro-civil unions ftr.

So in the Ukraine your candidate will be "againt all"...

(Though if any of the currently prominent Ukrainian politicians would ever support civil unions, most likely it would be Klichko, I suppose)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 04:35:01 PM
Rada will vote for a PM tomorrow. Meanwhile journalists are combing through Yanukovych's residence, gathering all the documents he left behind.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on February 22, 2014, 04:39:07 PM
I support whichever side is pro-civil unions ftr.

So in the Ukraine your candidate will be "againt all"...

(Though if any of the currently prominent Ukrainian politicians would ever support civil unions, most likely it would be Klichko, I suppose)

...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 22, 2014, 04:48:04 PM
The Euromaidan protests have become the Euromaidan Revolution today.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: patrick1 on February 22, 2014, 04:48:55 PM
I support whichever side is pro-civil unions ftr.

So in the Ukraine your candidate will be "againt all"...

(Though if any of the currently prominent Ukrainian politicians would ever support civil unions, most likely it would be Klichko, I suppose)

Gully was making a wry statement on people transposing their own values and experiences on to a conflict which they have little understanding.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 22, 2014, 04:55:15 PM
It seems that some of the party of regions members voted for his removal.

36 yes votes came from the Party of Regions. To be precise, 36 yes votes from those who are still formally affiliated with the Party of Regions. The POR has currently 134 deputies left, a drop from 204 since the beginning of this year.

The majority of those who had left the POR in the last eight weeks and who are now "independents" voted for Yanukovych's removal as well.

http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/radan_gs09/ns_golos?g_id=3863




Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 22, 2014, 05:36:01 PM
I'm guessing Serhiy Tihipko will be the pro-Russian presidential candidate in the snap election.

Former head of the Bank of Ukraine. Former head of Labor Ukraine and Strong Ukraine, two explicitly left-wing pro-Russian political parties. Third place candidate (about 10%) after Yanukovych and Tymoshenko in the last election, joined POR shortly after.

Natalia Korolevska of Forward Ukraine is another possibility, although she's less explicitly pro-Russian and she lost a lot of clout when her party just barely failed to make it into parliament. She had been a member of the Tymoshenko bloc, first as part of Tymoshenko's Fatherland party, then as leader of a new Social Democratic Party of Ukraine. She pulled the Social Democrats out of the bloc so she could support the government. She's still a minor minister I think. She's also an oligarch herself.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 06:30:54 PM
Ukrainian rabbi tells Kiev's Jews to flee city
Fearing violence against Ukraine's Jews, the Jewish community asks Israel for assistance with the security of the community.

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/jewish-world-news/1.575732


I really hope that certain nice guys won't take an advantage of the situation



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 22, 2014, 06:40:41 PM
"Correction (Feb. 22, 4:20 P.M.): An earlier version of this report incorrectly described Rabbi Azman as the chief rabbi of Ukraine. Azman is not the country's chief rabbi, but one of two rabbis challenging the official chief rabbi, Yaakov Bleich, in Kiev, and like most Chabad rabbis, is aligned with the Kremlin."


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 06:45:50 PM
"Correction (Feb. 22, 4:20 P.M.): An earlier version of this report incorrectly described Rabbi Azman as the chief rabbi of Ukraine. Azman is not the country's chief rabbi, but one of two rabbis challenging the official chief rabbi, Yaakov Bleich, in Kiev, and like most Chabad rabbis, is aligned with the Kremlin."

I saw that, but thing is still worth mentioning, esspecially given the certain elements' heavy presence on the streets as we speak.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on February 22, 2014, 06:50:41 PM
Thousands Storm Viktor Yanukovych's Palace, Find His Private Zoo And Other Luxuries (PHOTOS)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/22/yanukovych-zoo-palace-ukraine_n_4838187.html


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 22, 2014, 06:53:13 PM
Thousands Storm Viktor Yanukovych's Palace, Find His Private Zoo And Other Luxuries (PHOTOS)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/22/yanukovych-zoo-palace-ukraine_n_4838187.html

I guess we can all agree the man has no taste whatsoever ;)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 22, 2014, 09:51:59 PM
I'm just waiting for Thomas Freidman to weigh in with his lucid commentary, naturally.

He already "wrote" next week's column (http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-P2lEHukfPUJ:thomasfriedmanopedgenerator.com/The%252BTalk%252Bof%252BUkraine%252Ba3d45e+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a) two months early. ;)

(Sadly, thomasfriedmanopedgenerator.com appears to be offline, hopefully just for the moment, so I had to link a cached copy of it from Google.)



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 22, 2014, 09:53:15 PM
Cory, while you might think Ukraine to be a good case for a seminar on "Basics of Geopolitics", there are actually some here who know, and are concerned about, real people living there. Just imagine for a moment we wouldn't be talking Ukraine but Canada or Cuba instead, and consider whether in that case you would still stick to your statements.

Of course I would, and even more so as the stakes for America would be higher.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 10:48:51 PM
Russian news apparently reporting that he's seeking asylum there.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 22, 2014, 10:55:07 PM
Russian news apparently reporting that he's seeking asylum there.

Where do you keep getting this? RT says the President isn't leaving and I haven't heard/seen any substantiation by major media outlets (Al-Jazeera/France 24/ect.).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2014, 11:00:11 PM
I got it from an expert I follow on Twitter.  (http://www.profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/novosti-sng/ukraine/entry1008200510.html) Unconfirmed for now. Any Russian-speakers here?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 23, 2014, 06:18:53 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304129

Quote
Here in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, the most important thing coming out of a congress of pro-Yanukovych politicians is the sentiment that they don't want Ukraine to split but to remain united.

Kharkiv's regional governor, Mikhaylo Dobkin, told the meeting of MPs from predominantly Russian-speaking areas of eastern Ukraine and Crimea : "We're not preparing to break up the country. We want to preserve it."

However, they have refused to recognise developments in the national parliament. They are calling "fascist" those who have taken power in Kiev, and do not want armed fighters to come to their towns.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2014, 06:32:34 AM
Any news about Yanukovich? It'd be nice if they managed to arrest him before he flees to Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 23, 2014, 07:21:07 AM
Any news about Yanukovich? It'd be nice if they managed to arrest him before he flees to Russia.

He's either north, west, east, or south of Kharkiv.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Pingvin on February 23, 2014, 08:47:47 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304129

Quote
Here in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, the most important thing coming out of a congress of pro-Yanukovych politicians is the sentiment that they don't want Ukraine to split but to remain united.

Kharkiv's regional governor, Mikhaylo Dobkin, told the meeting of MPs from predominantly Russian-speaking areas of eastern Ukraine and Crimea : "We're not preparing to break up the country. We want to preserve it."

However, they have refused to recognise developments in the national parliament. They are calling "fascist" those who have taken power in Kiev, and do not want armed fighters to come to their towns.

Dobkin had left the Ukraine yesterday.
Yanukovych tried to flee, but was stopped. Rumored location is Donetsk.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: swl on February 23, 2014, 08:56:51 AM
Hiw own party has now rejected Yanukovich:

Quote
Dear compatriots

We are experiencing one of the most difficult and tragic periods in the history of our country. Ukraine was deceived and robbed but even that is nothing compared to the grief faced by dozens of Ukrainian families who lost their loved ones on both sides of the confrontation. Ukraine betrayed, and people pushed their foreheads. All responsibility for this lies with Yanukovych and his immediate environment.

We, the Party of Regions faction in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (parliament) and our party members, strongly condemn the criminal orders that led to the loss of human life, an empty treasury, huge debts, shame in the eyes of the Ukrainian people and the world, bringing our country was on the brink, threats split and the loss of national sovereignty. Any attempt to influence the situation, to persuade the president had not been heard.

Party of Regions faction represents the interests of more than ten million voters in Ukraine and more than one million members.

Parties of regions - is the normal, hardworking people who love their land, their people, It includes industrialists, scientists, workers, doctors and teachers.

We have come to parliament to serve Ukraine and its people.

Party of Regions said that difference of opinion, and sometimes - differences in ideology are not an obstacle to work together for the benefit of Ukraine. There are different views, but we have one goal - a united, strong and independent Ukraine.

We condemn the cowardly flight of Yanukovych.

We condemn the betrayal.

We condemn the criminal orders , which framed the common people, soldiers and officers.

But attempts at total intimidation and lynching, to destabilize the situation in the regions is not acceptable in a democratic society.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: politicallefty on February 23, 2014, 09:06:33 AM
Any news about Yanukovich? It'd be nice if they managed to arrest him before he flees to Russia.

He's either north, west, east, or south of Kharkiv.

Am I the only one that can draw the parallels to Romania 1989?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 23, 2014, 11:43:43 AM
Any news about Yanukovich? It'd be nice if they managed to arrest him before he flees to Russia.

He's either north, west, east, or south of Kharkiv.

Am I the only one that can draw the parallels to Romania 1989?

You certainly can draw parallels, but they wouldn't really be appropriate.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on February 23, 2014, 04:13:42 PM
Will PoR survive? It's somewhat personalist.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franknburger on February 23, 2014, 04:55:22 PM
Daring some kind of political outlook, I think recent events will push Ukraine's territorial reform and decentralisation even further up the agenda than before. It had been one of PoR's main political demands while still in opposition, but, once having taken power, they - ehm - felt somewhat less pressed to move forward. Nevertheless, building on concepts that were developed during Tymoshenko's 2007-2009 presidency, the Constitutional Assembly  has in 2012 drafted a reform proposal that combines territorial reorganisation (merger of micro-units) with local governance reform and empowerment. I might be able to retrieve a respective map (I have attended a presentation by one of the EU experts that consulted the Constitutional Assembly), but that could take a little while.

For those interested, here are some background documents with a few more details:
http://cor.europa.eu/en/documentation/studies/Documents/local-regional-government-ukraine.pdf

http://www.aer.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Commissions/CultureEducation/EventsAndMeetings/2013/0425-27_DNK/WorkDocs/Briefing_note_on_local_and_regional_government_in_Ukraine.pdf


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 23, 2014, 05:05:08 PM

Actually the Party of Regions was extremely well organized when you compare it to the various parties of power under Kuchma and Yushchenko.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Deus Naturae on February 23, 2014, 06:54:52 PM
The parliament has elected Oleksandr Turchinov, a Tymoshenko ally, Acting President. (http://www.independent.ie/world-news/tymoshenko-ally-in-presidency-role-30034288.html)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 23, 2014, 07:00:20 PM

Actually the Party of Regions was extremely well organized when you compare it to the various parties of power under Kuchma and Yushchenko.

And it isn't as though President Waxwork had much of a personality...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Miles on February 24, 2014, 03:38:18 AM
Arrest warrant issued (https://twitter.com/AP/status/437864923243487232) by the interim interior minister for Yanukovych.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 24, 2014, 08:03:20 AM
Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII, I doubt that they can do much about it.

Rhetorics sound as if they're about to break off diplomatic relations with Ukraine though or something like that.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 24, 2014, 08:10:56 AM
Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII, I doubt that they can do much about it.

Rhetorics sound as if they're about to break off diplomatic relations with Ukraine though or something like that.

Putin is anything but impatient. Russia suffered a setback in 2004-2005, just to regain an upper hand later. Now, despite making noises (which would be very surprising if they haven't), they'll probably wait for the next round as well.

And make no mistake, given the divisions and every government inability to maintain support, there will be the "next round".


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Silent Hunter on February 24, 2014, 12:21:34 PM
Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII, I doubt that they can do much about it.

Ukraine isn't Georgia. It has a much bigger military than the latter, whose air force was quite literally what was left in the Sukhoi factory when the country became independent and they had enough problems with that.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 24, 2014, 01:27:22 PM
Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII...

It is the year 14. I would not discard that possibility, actually.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on February 24, 2014, 03:32:42 PM
It is the year 14. I would not discard that possibility, actually.

Wouldn't it just be the damnedest irony....


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: King on February 24, 2014, 05:14:35 PM
Of course, it wouldn't be an international incident without John McCain demanding the USA jump into the pool.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: NewYorkExpress on February 25, 2014, 12:23:46 PM
http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-delays-announcement-of-new-government/1858553.html (http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-delays-announcement-of-new-government/1858553.html)

In addition to delaying the formation of a unity Government, the Parliament of Ukraine has voted to recommend that the International Criminal Court try Yankouvych, former Interior Minister Vitaly Zharchencko and former Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka for "Serious Crimes"


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 25, 2014, 01:20:11 PM
http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-delays-announcement-of-new-government/1858553.html (http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-delays-announcement-of-new-government/1858553.html)

In addition to delaying the formation of a unity Government, the Parliament of Ukraine has voted to recommend that the International Criminal Court try Yankouvych, former Interior Minister Vitaly Zharchencko and former Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka for "Serious Crimes"

That makes a degree of sense.  Clearly Russia and the Russophiles in Ukraine would never accept the legitimacy of a domestic prosecution.  Even if one accepts the legitimacy, the possibility of them getting a fair hearing in the Ukraine is slim.  Also, once handed over to the Hague, there would be no possibility of pressuring the new government to release them.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 25, 2014, 01:25:10 PM
Putin doesn't need to send tanks, when he can simplz turn off gas.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 25, 2014, 03:25:33 PM
Crimea playing up secession/rejoining Russia. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26321329)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 26, 2014, 07:55:00 AM
Putin orders ‘combat readiness’ tests for western, central Russian troops (http://rt.com/news/putin-drill-combat-army-864/)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 26, 2014, 12:47:39 PM
It has been in Russian/Ukrainian news for some hours now. Frankly, I am scared.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 26, 2014, 12:50:16 PM
Crimea playing up secession/rejoining Russia. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26321329)

Actually, they have not been able to do this today - no quorum in the local legislature was partly to blame. But also there seems to be some rethinking - for the moment the local legislative and executive leaders are blaming each other for separatism and hinting at a modicum of loyalty. One reason might be, today there was a massive pro-Ukrainian demonstration by Crimean Tartars in Simferopol. They may be realizing, a secession might lead to a local civil war.

Sebastopol is quite another matter, though.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franknburger on February 26, 2014, 06:40:22 PM
Sebastopol used to be 'hip' around 2005-07, and saw quite a real estate boom. I know several expats that bought flats there. The financial crisis has hit Ukraine hard and probably also affected Sebastopol's real estate market, and there are obviously many locals unhappy of being crowded out by rich people from Kiew, Dnjepropetowsk and abroad. But the local business elite might want to give the thought of joining Russia (and suddenly having to compete with overhauled Sochi) a second thought, and finally vote with their purse.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: badgate on February 27, 2014, 03:12:06 AM
Kerry warns Russia against military action and pledges $1 billion in international loans to Ukraine. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kerry-warns-russia-that-military-action-in-ukraine-could-lead-to-international-backlash/2014/02/26/92a9834a-9f35-11e3-9ba6-800d1192d08b_story.html)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: YL on February 27, 2014, 03:16:57 AM
Various news organisations are reporting that armed men have seized the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol and hoisted a Russian flag.  It doesn't seem clear who they are.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: badgate on February 27, 2014, 03:50:13 AM
()
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/438008339801579520/photo/1


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 27, 2014, 06:12:07 AM
It seems the Crimean protests are the result of a decision of the Ukrainian Parliament to revoke a law which established Russian as an additional official language in all regions of Ukraine with at least 10% Russian speakers.

The Crimean parliament building as it looks right now:

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2014, 06:18:19 AM
It seems the Crimean protests are the result of a decision of the Ukrainian Parliament to revoke a law which established Russian as an additional official language in all regions of Ukraine with at least 10% Russian speakers.

Repealing that law was a really goddamn stupid move, tbf.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 27, 2014, 06:22:23 AM
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/02/27/ukraine-yanukovych-whereabouts/5857331/

Quote
Ukrainian fugitive President Viktor Yanukovych asked Russia on Thursday to protect him from "extremists," as a respected Russian news organization reported that he was seen in a Moscow hotel and was now staying in a Kremlin sanatorium just outside the city.

Yanukovych, who fled from Ukraine's capital Kiev last week, said in the Thursday statement that he still considers himself to be the legitimate leader.

"I have to ask Russia to ensure my personal safety from extremists," he said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 27, 2014, 06:27:16 AM
From Yanukovych's statement:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/27/ukraine-pro-russian-gunmen-seize-crimea-parliament-live-updates

Quote
"I, Viktor Fedorovich Yanukovych appeal to the people of Ukraine. As before I still consider myself to be the lawful head of the Ukrainian state, chosen freely by the will of the Ukrainian people.

Now it is becoming clear that the people in south-eastern Ukraine and in Crimea do not accept the power vacuum and complete lawlessness in the country, when the heads of ministries are appointed by the mob.

On the streets of many cities of our country there is an orgy of extremism ...I have to ask the Russian authorities to provide me with personal safety from the actions of extremists."


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Miles on February 27, 2014, 08:01:18 AM
Ukraine parliament approves Arseniy Yatsenyuk as new prime minister. (https://twitter.com/AP/status/439020902572105728)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 27, 2014, 08:23:41 AM
The new Ukrainian government is basically a coalition of Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party and the nationalist Svoboda along with a couple of former Maidan activists. Vitali Klitschko's UDAR refused to join the government.

Meanwhile, some ex-Party of Regions MPs have formed a new group in the Ukrainian Parliament called "Economic Development". ED is led by Anatoliy Kinakh, a former prime minister under Leonid Kuchma back in 2001/02.

Current seat distribution in the Rada is apparently as follows (in brackets the change since beginning of this year):

Party of Regions 127 (-77)
Batkivshchyna 88 (-2)
UDAR 42 (+-0)
Svoboda 36 (+-0)
Economic Development 33 (+33)
Communist Party 32 (+-0)
Independents 91 (+53)
[Vacancies 1 (-7)]


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2014, 09:39:31 AM
The new Ukrainian government is basically a coalition of Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party and the nationalist Svoboda...

...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2014, 09:50:08 AM
The new Ukrainian government is basically a coalition of Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party and the nationalist Svoboda...

...

Considering the events that led up to this, it's probably fair and tactically sound not to exclude them from the political power-sharing just now. After the situation is stabilized, hopefully they will be relegated to opposition like most other far-right parties.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 27, 2014, 10:11:08 AM
But these people are actual Nazis.

And to pick up on just one specific point, this is an overtly antisemitic political party - that used to have an actual period Nazi emblem as its logo: I wish I was making this up but I'm not - in a country that has, how shall we say, not exactly fessed up to the less than heartwarming role that many of its people had in the Holocaust.

Perhaps it is 'tactically sound' (but aren't there points even further down the Nazi road of crazy than Svobada? What if these 'moderate' Nazis start losing votes to less 'moderate' Nazis?) but there are limits, surely...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2014, 10:55:43 AM
Yanukovych will make a statement in Rostov-on-Don Friday, per Russian media.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 27, 2014, 11:16:57 AM
Why didn't UDAR join the government?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2014, 11:18:18 AM

Helps to be outside when the presidential election comes, given the "hell" (Yatsenyuk) that's sure to come their way for the next 3 months.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: YL on February 27, 2014, 12:03:57 PM
Crimea is apparently going to hold some sort of referendum on its status at the same time as the May elections.  The question is reported as "Does the Autonomous Republic of Crimea possess governmental independence or continue to be part of Ukraine on the basis of treaties and agreements – Yes or No?"

The whole situation looks very messy, and I can't see how having people like Svoboda in government in Kiev helps...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on February 27, 2014, 01:59:16 PM
Crimea is apparently going to hold some sort of referendum on its status at the same time as the May elections.  The question is reported as "Does the Autonomous Republic of Crimea possess governmental independence or continue to be part of Ukraine on the basis of treaties and agreements – Yes or No?"

That's a really confusing way of wording that question.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: bore on February 27, 2014, 03:50:40 PM
Crimea is apparently going to hold some sort of referendum on its status at the same time as the May elections.  The question is reported as "Does the Autonomous Republic of Crimea possess governmental independence or continue to be part of Ukraine on the basis of treaties and agreements – Yes or No?"

That's a really confusing way of wording that question.

If that translation's correct, yes is the right answer for both sides.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: badgate on February 27, 2014, 03:52:10 PM
I understood the question perfectly well. It's the "Yes or No" that is confusing.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on February 27, 2014, 04:01:29 PM
I understood the question perfectly well. It's the "Yes or No" that is confusing.

Yeah, that's what I meant.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2014, 05:55:33 PM
Russian Army units are occupying an airport in Sevastopol.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 27, 2014, 06:08:03 PM
Russian Army units are occupying an airport in Sevastopol.

Sevastopol airport is, mostly, a military base (there are some commercial flights, but that usage is tiny, the main international airport is in Simferopol). Still, it is clearly not part of the RUSSIAN military base in Sevastopol.

With Russian troops occupying administrative buildings in Simferopol, it is not like this is unexpected. How long before the other international "guarantors" of Ukrainian territorial integrity (US and UK) do anything? Unfortunately, I am afraid, they will do nothing.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2014, 07:56:38 PM
Eli Lake's US intelligence sources say they don't think Russia will invade. (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/27/u-s-spies-no-russia-isn-t-about-to-invade-ukraine.html)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 27, 2014, 08:06:08 PM
Eli Lake's US intelligence sources say they don't think Russia will invade. (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/27/u-s-spies-no-russia-isn-t-about-to-invade-ukraine.html)

They will not "invade". They will "fulfill their international duty on request of the legitimate government of Ukraine".


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 27, 2014, 08:16:37 PM
Russian Army units are occupying an airport in Sevastopol.

Just checked. It is not Sevastopol. It is Simferopol. It is A LOT worse.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2014, 05:09:41 AM
Can they go beyond Crimea though? The "protecting Russians" argument won't work then.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 28, 2014, 05:31:39 AM
Russian Army units are occupying an airport in Sevastopol.

Just checked. It is not Sevastopol. It is Simferopol. It is A LOT worse.

It was both, actually. Although the "occupation" of Simferopol has ended already.

Ukraine claims a Russian invasion, Russia denies the involvement of any of its military units and points to "pro-Russian self-defence forces".


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: YL on February 28, 2014, 05:46:05 AM
Guardian reporter Harriet Salem (via the Guardian's live blog):

Quote
    On the road between Sevastopol and Simferopol there was a roadblock but they were letting most people through with Crimean number plates. A sign at the roadblock read “People who live by the sword…” but the second half was missing

    A man at Sevastopol airport, who said he was a captain in the tactical aviation brigade in Sevastopol but declined to give his name, told the Guardian there were about 300 people of unknown identity inside the airport but he said, without elaborating: “We don’t consider it any invasion of our territory.”

    He said the men looked like military, were wearing two different types of uniform, and were armed with sniper rifles and AK-47s. “We don’t know who they are, nor where they’ve come from” he said He also said that there were two Kamaz (a manufacturer of trucks) vehicles inside. “They [the vehicles] looked like they could contain 50 people at a push so how they got 300 people inside, I don’t know,” he said

    Major Fidorenko from the Ukrainian military at the base at the airport said they’d been in touch with the unknown gunmen who said they were there “to prevent unwanted landings of helicopters and planes”.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 28, 2014, 10:57:17 AM
I think we should not jump at conclusions just yet. Kremlin-backed groups? Possibly. Russian Army? I doubt.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 28, 2014, 11:55:55 AM
The interim authorities need to come out with a statement saying they respect all of Ukraine's treaty obligations and expect friendly relations with all of their neighbors. It might have no effect or it might just solve everything.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Silent Hunter on February 28, 2014, 12:09:50 PM
I don't think anyone wants a shooting war here... but if people aren't careful, we might get one.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: YL on February 28, 2014, 01:14:41 PM
The Guardian's Moscow correspondent wasn't very impressed (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/viktor-yanukovych-russia-ukraine-coup) with Yanukovych's press conference.  Anyway, Yanukovych claims he's still president, and that he thinks Crimea should remain within Ukraine, but that what's happened there was "a natural reaction to the bandit coup in Kiev".

Elsewhere, apparently Vladimir Zhirinovsky turned up in Sevastopol.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 28, 2014, 01:19:08 PM
Russian AF IL-76s are landing at a base near Simferopol.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: YL on February 28, 2014, 01:29:32 PM
There are reports that Crimean airspace has been closed.  (BBC News)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 28, 2014, 02:04:51 PM
BBC now says no IL-76 at Gvardeysky, the AFB near Simferopol.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 28, 2014, 02:45:16 PM
Well, according to treaties, the Russians are perfectly allowed to use Sevastopol airfield. Also, it's where their Black Sea fleet is based, so they are allowed to deploy troops to defend their garrisons as well. Given the situation, that would be logical.

What I completely don't understand and what is hard indeed to explain is the business with Simferopol.

EDIT: Forgot Ukraine closed airspace.

Elsewhere, apparently Vladimir Zhirinovsky turned up in Sevastopol.

I forgot all along him :P


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on February 28, 2014, 03:06:28 PM
AP (according to Fox) is reporting a Russian convoy crossing into the Crimea. 


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 28, 2014, 03:26:06 PM
Now Ukrainian officials are claiming 15 Russian transport planes in Simferopol, 2000 troops.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 28, 2014, 03:42:17 PM
Crimea might be more trouble than it's worth for the Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on February 28, 2014, 03:51:32 PM
Crimea might be more trouble than it's worth for the Ukraine.
Would be true, if there were any reason to believe that Russians would stop at the Crimea. Unfortunately, there is absolutely none.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 28, 2014, 04:26:25 PM
It just my guess, but I don't see any large invasion as of now. Putin is probably baiting the new government to make some sort of mistake, that would futher erode their already diminished position with the Maidan, that now pretty much controls Kiev. Divide et impera.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2014, 04:39:59 PM
It just my guess, but I don't see any large invasion as of now. Putin is probably baiting the new government to make some sort of mistake, that would futher erode their already diminished position with the Maidan, that now pretty much controls Kiev. Divide et impera.

Yeah, I have a hard time thinking the West would tolerate a full-fledged invasion. Taking Crimea would be equivalent to what they did with Georgia back in 2008, which already put Russia in a tough spot.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on February 28, 2014, 04:50:50 PM
Russians admit they are in:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10668357/Russia-admits-that-it-has-moved-troops-in-Ukraine.html


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: nuclearneo577 on February 28, 2014, 05:06:47 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O-63RbV3vE#t=9890

Obama is speaking about this right now.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 28, 2014, 05:06:51 PM
Oh sh**t: Russian troops trying to disarm a Ukrainian brigade. Obama about to make another statement, probably empty.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: nuclearneo577 on February 28, 2014, 05:35:16 PM
Well, if Russia is setting up for some kind of offensive movement, are they going to wait for somebody to shoot at them first, or do they still need more troops in place?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 28, 2014, 05:39:44 PM
Ukrainian defence ministry says Russian troops will attack at 0500 local.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on February 28, 2014, 05:41:19 PM
Country invades a foreign nation to protect its fellow countrymen and the rest of the world is just sitting on their asses. Welcome to Munich 38.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 28, 2014, 06:23:36 PM
Country invades a foreign nation to protect its fellow countrymen and the rest of the world is just sitting on their asses. Welcome to Munich 38.

Gee, please don't do Godwin.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Boris on February 28, 2014, 06:30:39 PM
So what's Russia's endgame here? Assuming that everyone is smart and no triggers are pulled, eventually Russian troops will withdraw and you're left with a defacto independent state (maybe recognized by only Russia and Belarus?) that has extremely close ties to Moscow? What about the 30-40% (is it that right? too lazy to look it up) of the population that is not pro-Russia?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 28, 2014, 06:32:37 PM
So what's Russia's endgame here? Assuming that everyone is smart and no triggers are pulled, eventually Russian troops will withdraw and you're left with a defacto independent state (maybe recognized by only Russia and Belarus?) that has extremely close ties to Moscow? What about the 30-40% (is it that right? too lazy to look it up) of the population that is not pro-Russia?

I was just thinking of such scenario. Doesn't even need to be partially recognized (see Transnistria).



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on February 28, 2014, 07:19:48 PM
US believes Crimea is now under full military control of Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on February 28, 2014, 07:28:29 PM
Well, CNN has just cited Munich and the Rhineland.  Godwin's Law seems to be suspended.

My guess is that Russia will annex Crimea.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franzl on February 28, 2014, 07:31:47 PM
My guess is that Russia will annex Crimea.

Brilliant guess there.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 28, 2014, 07:43:27 PM
Country invades a foreign nation to protect its fellow countrymen and the rest of the world is just sitting on their asses. Welcome to Munich 38.

Hitler wasn't sitting on 8,000 nuclear warheads though.

So this is more like Afghanistan 1979. Ironically, Putin waited until the Olympics were over. :P


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 28, 2014, 07:59:00 PM
Just read a report that the United States is considering to abstain from the annual G8 Summit (which is supposed to take place in June in Sochi of all places) and to urge the Europeans to do the same.

Welcome to Cold War II.

This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 28, 2014, 08:00:47 PM
This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on February 28, 2014, 08:18:11 PM
This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

It is not lost on me that the last Crimean War resulted in the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet, by the Russians.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: User157088589849 on February 28, 2014, 08:43:10 PM
This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

100% per cent right. The consequences of the collapsed austria-hungarian empire have never been resolved.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 28, 2014, 09:36:20 PM
This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.

Well, if this leads to us defunding the wasteful ISS, at least one good thing will have come out of it, tho it's not enough to make what's happening good overall.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 01, 2014, 12:45:42 AM
Just read a report that the United States is considering to abstain from the annual G8 Summit (which is supposed to take place in June in Sochi of all places) and to urge the Europeans to do the same.

Welcome to Cold War II.

This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.

There should never be a G8 again. G7 is the proper format, and it should be announced, firmly and unequivocably, yesterday. It is not about a cold war, it is about the reality: Russia does not belong.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 01, 2014, 12:46:08 AM
This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

There is a VERY big ideological difference: Russia is not a democracy.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 01:21:06 AM
If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

Told you.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 01:56:03 AM
I can see three possible scenarios:

a) The most probable: some kind of deal under the table between Western powers and Russia, with an Ukrainian Crimea with more autonomy from Kiev and Moscow getting complete control of key ports and airports (like American bases in Spain, Italy and Germany...or Okinawa).

b) Kiev trading an independent Crimea as a Russian puppet state while they keep their freedom to join EU.

c) Kiev not accepting any deal (kamikaze option). Moscow would occupy all Crimea and annex it.

The main problem is far eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkov): they not only speak Russian and prefer good relations with Moscow: they ARE ethnic Russians. Would they accept a "westernized" country? Not so sure.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 01, 2014, 02:42:31 AM


The main problem is far eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkov): they not only speak Russian and prefer good relations with Moscow: they ARE ethnic Russians. Would they accept a "westernized" country? Not so sure.

This is, actually, not true. In Kharkiv people are overwhelmingly self-identifying Ukrainians (nearly 71% thus identified in the 2001 census, against about 26% calling themselves Russian). In Donetsk and Luhansk there are also Ukrainian majorities (around 58% Ukrainian against 39% Russian. And of those self-identified Russians many have fairly complex identities. They may have a different idea of what it means to be Ukrainian, but they, most definitely, are not (for the most part) Russian: neither culturally, nor based on self-recognized identity. Many might identify with the Russian literary standard as their language, and are a lot less comfortable with literary Ukrainian, but, actually, local spoken dialects, especially in rural areas, are closer to Ukrainian (as between Germany and Netherlands, there is no sharp boundary).

There has never been any strong movement for joining Russia in those parts (unlike in Crimea). They might want somewhat closer links with the Eastern neighbor, but they all want it to remain a neighbor.

It is the Russians who do not believe those guys being Ukrainian. They themselves tend to have no doubts.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: YL on March 01, 2014, 03:34:58 AM
I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility that they're trying to carve out a puppet state on Ukrainian territory for Yanukovych.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 03:43:37 AM
Gracias por la información, ag.

Best map I have found comes precisely from 2001 census.

()

Another one from 2001:

()



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 03:51:21 AM
Concerning the validity of the census I found this analysis:

http://www.ukrweekly.com/old/archive/2003/020302.shtml

Wikipedia with complete results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Census_%282001%29


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Silent Hunter on March 01, 2014, 04:57:23 AM
That was in 2001; a lot of Tatars have moved back since then.


Title: Crimean crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 05:15:44 AM
It seems to be that the Ukrainians have only few options left.

Either they do nothing or they issue an ultimatum to Russia. And when the ultimatum runs out they again have the option between doing nothing or start shooting at Russian soldiers.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 01, 2014, 05:42:51 AM
Reading about Crimean politics on Wikipedia and it's crazy.

So apparently the Crimean Prime Minister that got overthrown was a member of the Party of Regions who used to be a cop who shot protesters.

He was overthrown for being too moderate...

So now the Prime Minister is this guy from a party called Russian Unity, which only won 4% of the vote in the last election.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 07:22:49 AM
Reading about Crimean politics on Wikipedia and it's crazy.

If you want crazyness, try to understand Central Asia Politics. Especially Turkmenistan.

Also:

El Pais de Madrid is reporting that Ukraine's Coastguard has received instructions for protecting all Black Sea ports from any Russian incursion.

It could be a mistake from the media or it could be a kamikaze movement.

--

Update, Wall Street Journal:

Breaking: Ukraine Warships in Black Sea

    

*Ukraine Warships Deployed in Black Sea on Alert — Border Service Official
*Ukraine Border Forces: Will Do Everything to Prevent Seizure of Bases, Ships
*Military Attempting to Take Control of Border Naval Bases Said They Act on Orders From Moscow — Ukraine Border Official

http://stream.wsj.com/story/deadly-clashes-in-ukraine/SS-2-457850/SS-2-468999/?mod=wsj_streaming_deadly-clashes-in-ukraine





Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 07:32:03 AM
Referendum on the future status of Crimea was pushed up by the new Crimean government by two months and will now take place on March 30.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 08:14:11 AM
Protestors have occupied the Kharkiv regional administration and raised the flag of Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 08:48:26 AM
Protestors have occupied the Kharkiv regional administration and raised the flag of Russia.

()

Apparently there were like 50 injured in clashes between pro-Russians and pro-Kiev in the city.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 08:54:20 AM
Donetsk:

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 09:10:12 AM
Crimea might very well be a smoke screen for Donbas.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 09:11:14 AM
Putin has "asked" the Duma for an AUMF in Crimea.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 09:13:09 AM
Putin has "asked" the Duma for an AUMF in Crimea.

Federation Council, not Duma.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 09:14:48 AM
And no one will do a damn thing.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 09:25:27 AM

I'm sorry for sounding cynical here, but what actually can be done?

I'm asking because it's not so obvious.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 09:30:58 AM
Resolution is ambiguous: mentions "Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country."

CBG in the Black Sea? Or a couple of SSNs?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 09:40:40 AM

I'm sorry for sounding cynical here, but what actually can be done?

Exchange Ukraine for Syria?



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 09:42:04 AM
Wonder if Putin invades all of Eastern Ukraine or most of Ukraine before pulling back and securing puppet state a la Georgia.

Federation Council unanimously approved AUMF.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 09:49:42 AM
Wonder if Putin invades all of Eastern Ukraine or most of Ukraine before pulling back and securing puppet state a la Georgia.

Federation Council unanimously approved AUMF.

Wait, wait, wait.

No invasion for the moment. Well, yes in Crimea, but it was never an actual part of Ukraine anyway.

I think that now we should watch how Ethnic Russian Ukrainians interact with the real Ukrainians and the new government and if they reach an agreement (more autonomy).

If not, perhaps we could have a new Transnistria de facto between Ukraine and Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 09:53:25 AM
Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt: Russian military intervention a violation of international law.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 09:54:13 AM
Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt: Russian military intervention a violation of international law.

Insert a certain Stalin paraphrase.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 09:57:31 AM
Thank god we have the mighty Swedish army in our side in this time of darkness.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 01, 2014, 10:04:06 AM
Still, all the seriously scary stuff aside, you have to be amused at the hilarious lack of consistency in the reporting of everything that's going on. One minute the Western media is very much in favour of revolutionary mobs seizing control of government buildings and so on, and now suddenly they are not so keen on the idea. And the same is true (in perfect reverse) for the Russian media.

Shocking, I tell you, shocking.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 10:20:19 AM
All I can say is that Putin's actions were... unexpected.

I "joked" with Hungary 1956, but I thought it would only happen in a situation of national chaos.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on March 01, 2014, 10:43:10 AM
The Russian parliament has approved the use of force in the Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: politicus on March 01, 2014, 11:25:30 AM
Thank god we have the mighty Swedish army in our side in this time of darkness.

All 50.000 of them!

But I think Bildt is right to state this obvious fact. All countries in Europe should condemn this aggression.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 11:39:36 AM
Thank god we have the mighty Swedish army in our side in this time of darkness.

All 50.000 of them!

Still, they'd probably kick our asses :P


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: CatoMinor on March 01, 2014, 11:46:25 AM
Thank god we have the mighty Swedish army in our side in this time of darkness.
Time for revenge for the Great Northern War?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 11:52:04 AM
- The Federation Council of Russia demands recalling the Russian ambassador to the United States in response to "Obama's insulting statement on the situation in Ukraine".

- Vitali Klitschko has called for a general mobilization of Ukrainian armed forces.

- Emergency session of the UN Security Council planned for later today, emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers most likely planned for monday.

- Lithuanian foreign minister Linas Linkevicius has suggested a meeting of the North Atlantic Council in accordance with Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: swl on March 01, 2014, 11:52:12 AM
It's not going to end well for the ethnic minorities in Crimea...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 01, 2014, 11:52:24 AM
So is anyone else afraid Obama will go cowboy after his Syria wavering and start WWIII?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 11:59:47 AM
So is anyone else afraid Obama will go cowboy after his Syria wavering and start WWIII?

Going to war against an authoritarian warmonger with 2 thousands nuclear bombs doesn't make any sense.

We have Sweden for the moment.

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 12:02:45 PM
As a side note, the Olympics may be over, but the Paralympics are supposed to open next Friday in Sochi.

Also, on March 26, Soyuz TMA-12M is scheduled to launch to the ISS with NASA astronaut Steven Swanson on board.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 01, 2014, 12:05:10 PM
It's not going to end well for the ethnic minorities in Crimea...

I'm far more concerned for the non-Ukrainians in Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 12:07:42 PM
Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 12:08:20 PM
It's not going to end well for the ethnic minorities in Crimea...

I'm far more concerned for the non-Ukrainians in Ukraine.

Thank you for the new USSR propaganda, but we don't need it.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Nhoj on March 01, 2014, 12:26:50 PM
It's not going to end well for the ethnic minorities in Crimea...

I'm far more concerned for the non-Ukrainians in Ukraine.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky has been running about Crimea and the current premier of Crimea got 4% in the last elections.[he was installed by the forces occupying its parliament. ] So well you should probably fear for non Ukrainians in Ukraine, you should also fear for non Russians in Crimea.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 01, 2014, 12:38:08 PM
It's not going to end well for the ethnic minorities in Crimea...

I'm far more concerned for the non-Ukrainians in Ukraine.

Thank you for the new USSR propaganda, but we don't need it.

I fail to see any resemblance between Putin's right-wing oligarchy and the Soviet Union, nor do I see how acknowledging the open racism of much of the new Ukrainian government is "propaganda".

Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 01:03:33 PM


This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Don't tell me...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Nhoj on March 01, 2014, 01:09:12 PM
Lithuania might be claiming that their security is threatened I suppose or maybe they have a treaty with Ukraine. I agree it doesn't make sense.

Edit: well a NATO meeting does make sense just not by article 4.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 01, 2014, 01:26:37 PM
Resolution is ambiguous: mentions "Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country."

CBG in the Black Sea? Or a couple of SSNs?

Can't.  The Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits limits what we can send into the Black Sea and what little we could send can only stay there 21 days.  Neither surface vessels larger than 15,000 tons nor submarines may enter. Carriers aren't explicitly excluded, but the tonnage limit effectively excludes them.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 01:56:54 PM
It's not going to end well for the ethnic minorities in Crimea...

I'm far more concerned for the non-Ukrainians in Ukraine.

Thank you for the new USSR propaganda, but we don't need it.

I fail to see any resemblance between Putin's right-wing oligarchy and the Soviet Union, nor do I see how acknowledging the open racism of much of the new Ukrainian government is "propaganda".

Putin's dream isrecreating the former USSR, minus its economy.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2014, 02:00:46 PM
Well, if there's a war there's at least Slovakia in between ... :P

Now, enough with the jokes - too serious the situation ...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 01, 2014, 02:40:23 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 02:46:55 PM
Snowstalker's heroes:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400276


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beet on March 01, 2014, 02:47:44 PM
Putin is scary... I had this feeling during Georgia 2008. Countries need to respect other countries' territorial sovereignty. The difference between this and what the U.S. does, the U.S. goes in, installs a new government, and then eventually, for the most part, leaves. Iraq, today, is effectively independent. It's not clear if that's the intention in Crimea. This would be more like the U.S. invading Nova Scotia. It has the appearance of a naked land grab. Exactly the kind of behavior the U.S. intervened in the first Gulf war to stop. If this kind of behavior is allowed to go forward, international relations could start devolving into a pre-WWII type situation where larger states simply gobble up smaller ones.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on March 01, 2014, 02:48:09 PM
One thing's for sure though...after this a majority of Ukrainians will never again allow their country to fall under Russia's sphere of influence.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 01, 2014, 03:00:12 PM
Snowstalker's heroes:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400276

Both sides strike me as quite awful, as is the case in most international conflicts. This is the problem that arises when you have a revolution without the element of class struggle.

One thing's for sure though...after this a majority of Ukrainians will never again allow their country to fall under Russia's sphere of influence.

Being under Merkel's sphere of influence isn't much better.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on March 01, 2014, 03:02:31 PM
Being under Merkel's sphere of influence isn't much better.

Yes cause German troops are rolling thru the streets of Athens. :hündinbitte:


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 03:04:21 PM
Being under Merkel's sphere of influence isn't much better.

Yes cause German troops are rolling thru the streets of Athens. :hündinbitte:

You can't blame him, sovietic propaganda made him insane.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 01, 2014, 03:06:59 PM
Putin is scary... I had this feeling during Georgia 2008. Countries need to respect other countries' territorial sovereignty. The difference between this and what the U.S. does, the U.S. goes in, installs a new government, and then eventually, for the most part, leaves. Iraq, today, is effectively independent. It's not clear if that's the intention in Crimea. This would be more like the U.S. invading Nova Scotia. It has the appearance of a naked land grab. Exactly the kind of behavior the U.S. intervened in the first Gulf war to stop. If this kind of behavior is allowed to go forward, international relations could start devolving into a pre-WWII type situation where larger states simply gobble up smaller ones.

That would be a reasonable analogy if the majority of the population of Nova Scotia identified as American.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 01, 2014, 03:09:13 PM
Being under Merkel's sphere of influence isn't much better.

Yes cause German troops are rolling thru the streets of Athens. :hündinbitte:

You can't blame him, sovietic propaganda made him insane.

For the millionth time, opposition to the current Ukrainian government=/=support for Yanukovych or Putin.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 03:11:39 PM
Being under Merkel's sphere of influence isn't much better.

Yes cause German troops are rolling thru the streets of Athens. :hündinbitte:

You can't blame him, sovietic propaganda made him insane.

For the millionth time, opposition to the current Ukrainian government=/=support for Yanukovych or Putin.

Comparing Merkel to Putin is supporting Putin, as one is clearly worse than the other one (and it's coming from someone strongly disliking Merkel).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 03:17:46 PM
Poland:

Quote
"The international community must exert the strongest pressure on Russia," Donald Tusk said after meeting with foreign and defense ministers in Warsaw on the rapidly deteriorating situation in Ukraine.

"We must give a very clear signal that Europe and the world will not tolerate acts of aggression or intervention," Tusk said, adding that, "it's time the people of Ukraine were shown who their true friends are".


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 03:26:49 PM
One thing's for sure though...after this a majority of Ukrainians will never again allow their country to fall under Russia's sphere of influence.

I wish things were that simple.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MasterJedi on March 01, 2014, 03:41:13 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 01, 2014, 03:48:55 PM
Perhaps it may not be appropriate for a prospective world leader to be making enemies lists.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 01, 2014, 03:51:36 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

()

Russia still isn't our foe. They aren't threatening the United States at all.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 03:53:17 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

He was right, but it's not the kind of thing you say in public. Why not mailing them the position of all American soldiers around the world, too?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 01, 2014, 04:08:11 PM
So, did the fiscal conservatives invade the social conservatives?? :P


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 04:14:35 PM
So, did the fiscal conservatives invade the social conservatives?? :P

No, the ex-socialists invaded social conservative land, with the support the social conservatives, against fiscal conservatives, if I remember well.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on March 01, 2014, 04:19:38 PM
Being under Merkel's sphere of influence isn't much better.

Yes cause German troops are rolling thru the streets of Athens. :hündinbitte:

You can't blame him, sovietic propaganda made him insane.

For the millionth time, opposition to the current Ukrainian government=/=support for Yanukovych or Putin.

Comparing Merkel to Putin is supporting Putin, as one is clearly worse than the other one (and it's coming from someone strongly disliking Merkel).
FWIW, Snowstalker said that being under Merkel's sphere isn't much better than under Putin's and I kind of agree with him. Of course it's not the same, but in the latter you have no right whatsoever, whereas in the former you are slowly stripped of all the rights your parents once had without being able to do anything about it because IMF and sh**t.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 04:28:29 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

()

Russia still isn't our foe. They aren't threatening the United States at all.

Russia still can quite effectively block American moves in foreign policy, as we saw in 2013.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 01, 2014, 04:35:57 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

()

Russia still isn't our foe. They aren't threatening the United States at all.

Russia still can quite effectively block American moves in foreign policy, as we saw in 2013.

Are you talking about Syria? Basically everyone agrees Russia did us a favor in that regard.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on March 01, 2014, 04:53:43 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

()

To be fair, China must be on a high right now. Let the West and Russia duke it out, in the meantime they'd be happy to watch. :P


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 05:02:28 PM
The Guardian:

Quote

9.48pm GMT

Presidents Putin and Obama have had a telephone conversation. Putin said that he reserved the right to defend Russian interests in Crimea and east Ukraine. Obama said he was concerned about any plans for Russian intervention in Ukraine.

Putin replied that he was concerned about “provocative criminal” actions by far rightists sanctioned by the Ukrainian authorities.

Reuters

Quote

9.07pm GMT

Ukraine has asked NATO to look at all ways to protect its territorial integrity. Foreign Minister Sergei Deshchiritsya said he had held talks with officials from the United States and the European Union and then asked NATO for help after what Ukraine’s prime minister described as Russian aggression.
A request had been made to NATO to “look at using all possibilities for protecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, the Ukrainian people and nuclear facilities on Ukrainian territory,” he said.
Reuters


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 05:16:06 PM
I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

()

Russia still isn't our foe. They aren't threatening the United States at all.

Russia still can quite effectively block American moves in foreign policy, as we saw in 2013.

Are you talking about Syria? Basically everyone agrees Russia did us a favor in that regard.

By preventing the U.S. from getting deep into this? Yes, but it's hard to deny it was a huge diplomatic victory for Russia and diplomatic defeat for the Obama administration.

I dislike Putin's regime as much as most of you guys, but I'm not going to be self-deluded by underestimating Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Person Man on March 01, 2014, 05:21:46 PM
What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cassius on March 01, 2014, 05:24:24 PM
What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

Low. If anything it may end up being Obama going head to head with Putin. Merkel doesn't have the. Diplomatic power to take on Putin succesfully.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 01, 2014, 05:32:46 PM
Appearently some ships of the Russian Baltic fleet arrived at Crimea as well.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Person Man on March 01, 2014, 05:48:55 PM
What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

Low. If anything it may end up being Obama going head to head with Putin. Merkel doesn't have the. Diplomatic power to take on Putin succesfully.

You would think that Merkel's FP  is more hawkish, closer and more ambitious than Obama's FP.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 01, 2014, 06:27:36 PM
The new Ukrainian government is basically a coalition of Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party and the nationalist Svoboda along with a couple of former Maidan activists. Vitali Klitschko's UDAR refused to join the government.

Meanwhile, some ex-Party of Regions MPs have formed a new group in the Ukrainian Parliament called "Economic Development". ED is led by Anatoliy Kinakh, a former prime minister under Leonid Kuchma back in 2001/02.

Current seat distribution in the Rada is apparently as follows (in brackets the change since beginning of this year):

Party of Regions 127 (-77)
Batkivshchyna 88 (-2)
UDAR 42 (+-0)
Svoboda 36 (+-0)
Economic Development 33 (+33)
Communist Party 32 (+-0)
Independents 91 (+53)
[Vacancies 1 (-7)]

Independent MPs have also come together to form a faction called Sovereign European Ukraine. They have 36 seats.

Both Economic Development and Sovereign European Ukraine support the interim government, which has a majority of 250 out of 449 seats.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 07:33:05 PM
UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 08:11:04 PM
UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 01, 2014, 08:19:58 PM
UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.

Should have been done years ago.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 08:33:13 PM
Completely agreed.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 08:49:27 PM
What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

Low. If anything it may end up being Obama going head to head with Putin. Merkel doesn't have the. Diplomatic power to take on Putin succesfully.

You would think that Merkel's FP  is more hawkish, closer and more ambitious than Obama's FP.

What makes you think Merkel is anything remotely resembling a "hawk"? In the UN Security Council, she abstained on authorizing military intervention in Libya. Merkel is primarily driven by the desire not to be involved in any kind of trouble.

Politically, she has probably realized that she won't be able to fully abstain from this one... and it most likely annoys the hell out of her.

The image Merkel has abroad of being some kind of political mastermind probably makes most Germans chuckle. Because at home she has more the image of someone who prefers to sit things out. She isn't seen as a leader, but as a moderator who is balancing out the interests of different factions within her party and/or government while lacking a personal opinion on (/not giving a sh**t about) a lot of issues.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 01, 2014, 09:02:36 PM
UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.

No, we need to keep a G8, but dump Russia and add Brazil. (Or to really troll Russia, add China in place of Russia.)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 01, 2014, 09:10:20 PM

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2014, 09:12:32 PM

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.

Quoted for truth.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Blue3 on March 01, 2014, 09:41:52 PM
Remember when Russia was all about "not intervening in the internal affairs of other countries"? 


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 01, 2014, 10:19:50 PM
Remember when Russia was all about "not intervening in the internal affairs of other countries"? 
Remember when Obama was?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MurrayBannerman on March 01, 2014, 10:23:28 PM

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.
Nor does any leader with a modicum of international self-interest and power.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cory on March 01, 2014, 10:42:13 PM

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.
Nor does any leader with a modicum of international self-interest and power.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: jaichind on March 01, 2014, 10:47:52 PM
See

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/

Russian news sources indicate that Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has defected to Russia.

My understanding is that most of the Ukrainian Navy resigned last week so if this ends up being true it does not surprise me.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Frodo on March 01, 2014, 10:52:04 PM
Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: jaichind on March 01, 2014, 10:57:55 PM
Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.



Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Frodo on March 01, 2014, 11:11:23 PM
Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.



Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.

So what you're saying is Putin is likely to have learned his lesson from the Georgia incident (I am not about to call it a 'war') in 2008, and is unlikely to be following much the same script here that he did there?  


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 01, 2014, 11:17:16 PM
Russia has never been happy about Khrushchev's transfer of the Crimea to the Ukraine and at least there is an existing autonomous republic it can use to provide a veneer of legitimacy for its takeover.  But there is no obvious border for a split of the rest of Ukraine.  I think the Russian strategy is to treat this as another Georgia where it lopped off the former Soviet-era autonomous districts along its borders. So while it will seek control of the Crimea and Sevastopol, I'm fairly hopeful that Putin will not make a play for the Eastern Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 01, 2014, 11:19:56 PM
Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.



Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.
Wouldn't Putin still be able to dominate the rump Ukraine economically in the same manner as he would a united, pro Russian puppet Ukraine though?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 01, 2014, 11:34:25 PM
I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Frodo on March 01, 2014, 11:47:34 PM
I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

All the West can do is advocate democracy, liberal values, and the rule of law, and push back against Putin whenever possible.  There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die.  His world-view was indelibly shaped by the Cold War.  So long as he lives and remains in power, any state on Russia's periphery -including Ukraine- not already a member of NATO and/or the EU will never have a truly liberal democratic future without interference from a Russia imbued with dreams of imperial restoration.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2014, 11:53:32 PM
I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die. 

Could West speed up that process?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Frodo on March 01, 2014, 11:56:03 PM
I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die.

Could West speed up that process?

If you are you advocating an assassination, I would advise against it.  :P

Considering the other (viable) alternatives at this point in time in Russia, Putin is the only game we have in town.  


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2014, 12:55:16 AM
And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 12:56:08 AM
Russia created Putin. Russians like Putin. Russians need a Putin.

They have no changed since the Tsar's age.

If you think that with his death the people will be converted in happy liberal democrats, well, you are wrong.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 12:58:34 AM
And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?


In the crazy 90s every republic from the ex USSR without the support of Moscow wanted to be part of NATO and they had some deal here, some deal there, etc.

Caucasus is a mess, but a very attractive region for energetic purposes.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Deus Naturae on March 02, 2014, 12:59:52 AM
The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8. (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/u-s-suspends-role-russia-g8-summit-after-obama-putin-n42116)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 01:00:42 AM
The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8. (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/u-s-suspends-role-russia-g8-summit-after-obama-putin-n42116)

The puppet state of Canadia is doing the same.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 01:03:39 AM
And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?


In the crazy 90s every republic from the ex USSR without the support of Moscow wanted to be part of NATO and they had some deal here, some deal there, etc.

Caucasus is a mess, but a very attractive region for energetic purposes.


Partnership for Peace.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Frodo on March 02, 2014, 01:04:01 AM
And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?


Sorry, I confused Georgia's 2008 vote to join NATO (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_NATO_membership_referendum,_2008) with actual NATO membership.  


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2014, 02:03:51 AM
Situations like these always make me feel good that this guy is in the White House:

()

And not these guys:

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 02:11:13 AM
30 minutes ago:


"Three former Ukranian Presidents, Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma and Víktor Yúschenko has asked the Kiev Paliament the military movilization of the country. "We have to be prepared to defend our Motherland" wrote in a text in Ukraínskaya Pravda."

Kuchma is a surprise, as he was a pro-Russia hero.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Nhoj on March 02, 2014, 02:15:59 AM
30 minutes ago:

It translates to something like this: "Three former Ukranian Presidents, Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma and Víktor Yúschenko has asked the Kiev Paliament the military movilization of the country. "We have to be prepared to defend our Motherland" wrote in a text in Ukraínskaya Pravda."

Kuchma is a surprise, as he was a pro-Russia hero.


he denounced yanukovych pretty early in the protests.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 02:16:28 AM
The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8. (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/u-s-suspends-role-russia-g8-summit-after-obama-putin-n42116)

The puppet state of Canadia is doing the same.

Canada has a large Ukrainian community. It will, hopefully, actually drag the southern neighbor into action.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 02:20:27 AM
I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.


Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 02:29:44 AM
I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.


Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.


I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2014, 02:33:26 AM
10 minutes ago, Ukraine ordered general mobilisation:

http://derstandard.at/1392686841173/Ukraine-ruft-Generalmobilmachung-aus


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2014, 02:36:37 AM
Ukraine declares total mobilization

Ukraine has announced general mobilization, with Secretary of the National Security Council Andriy Parubiy declaring that the entire country will be put on full combat alert.

The defense ministry is reportedly calling up all its reserve troops who are due to come to enrollment offices on Sunday, March 2.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_02/Ukraine-declares-total-mobilization-3356


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2014, 02:38:14 AM
If this is right, it suggests that a Russian takeover of Crimea won't be sustainable…..unless they also take over a decent chunk of the rest of eastern Ukraine:

link (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/03/vladimir_putin_s_crimean_mistake_the_russian_president_is_miscalculating.html)

Quote
That narrow strip of land tethering northern Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland, called the Perokop Isthmus, is the peninsula’s lifeline. What’s left out of most Western analyses of Putin’s brazen military intervention is the Crimea’s complete economic dependence on the mainland, which provides nearly all of its electricity and water and about 70 percent of its food.
.
.
.
Most of the Crimea is basically a desert, with less annual rainfall than Los Angeles. It is impossible to sustain its 2 million people—including agriculture and the substantial tourist industry—without Ukrainian water. Current supplies aren’t even enough. In Sevastopol, home of the Black Sea Fleet, households get water only on certain days. In fact, on Feb. 19, when snipers were shooting protesters on the streets of Kiev, Sevastopol applied for $34 million in Western aid (note the irony) to improve its water and sewer systems.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 02:38:54 AM
I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.


Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.


I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

This will NOT satisfy the Russians. No more than giving Sudenten satisfied the Germans back in 1938. The only reason to do this is if you desperately want to go fighting on a Russian front in a couple of year. The only way to prevent THAT is to make it so painful to Russia right now, that they never think of a repeat.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2014, 02:47:02 AM
Ummmm……   http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/house-ukraine-caucus-chair-some-group-had-to-step-in-to-medi


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 03:03:00 AM
I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.


Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.


I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

This will NOT satisfy the Russians. No more than giving Sudenten satisfied the Germans back in 1938. The only reason to do this is if you desperately want to go fighting on a Russian front in a couple of year. The only way to prevent THAT is to make it so painful to Russia right now, that they never think of a repeat.

Do you think that diplomatic sanctions would be enough?



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2014, 03:17:01 AM
Here's what Putin wrote in a NYT op/ed back in September, urging the US not to intervene in Syria:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?_r=2&

Quote
The United Nations’ founders understood that decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by consensus, and with America’s consent the veto by Security Council permanent members was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The profound wisdom of this has underpinned the stability of international relations for decades.

No one wants the United Nations to suffer the fate of the League of Nations, which collapsed because it lacked real leverage. This is possible if influential countries bypass the United Nations and take military action without Security Council authorization.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 02, 2014, 06:14:05 AM
In an interview with the newspaper Pravo, former Czech foreign minister Karel Schwarzenberg has compared Putin to Hitler.

Meanwhile, Crimeans seem to be in a great mood:

http://instagram.com/p/lBDJ87ss09/


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franknburger on March 02, 2014, 06:17:51 AM
Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Well, there is a second scenario. Imagine the EU reacting with a trade boycott on Russia that includes transit of Russian goods over EU territory. That would effectively cut off Kaliningrad oblast from the remainder of Russia, and leave Russia with three choices:
1. Trade in Kaliningrad for Crimea (highly unlikely)
2. Give in on Crimea / Ukraine
3. Try to use military force in order to keep supply routes to Kaliningrad open, which would imply aggression on Lithuania, and as such invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

As such, the Lithuanian request indicates to me that blocking Kaliningrad is being seriously considered. What is the Lithuanian position on this issue, and how the EU will ultimately decide, is another question, but the EU is having quite an ace up their sleeve still.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 06:22:05 AM
The mobilization might be an empty gesture. Even the regular army is obviously divided and waiting to see what happens. I doubt Kiev government would be in effective control regarding military matters.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 02, 2014, 06:25:47 AM
There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 06:30:06 AM
There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

That's exactly the problem.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 06:48:03 AM
There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

Source: RT.

Nope.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 02, 2014, 07:01:22 AM
There are reports that the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the Hetman Sahaydachniy, has defected to Russia - including having raised the Russian flag.

Source: RT.

Nope.

My source was Die Welt which cited Reuters.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: swl on March 02, 2014, 08:39:57 AM
Russia created Putin. Russians like Putin. Russians need a Putin.

They have no changed since the Tsar's age.

If you think that with his death the people will be converted in happy liberal democrats, well, you are wrong.
And the most powerful forces in Russia after Putin are not the happy liberal democrats, but the ultra-nationalists and the old style communists. Putin is holding together a country that sunk in quasi anarchy in the 90s, a country plundered by mafia and oligarchs that Westerners are happy to protect (hello Berezovsky and Abramovich), and where politics range from neo-nazis to stalinists. I don't think any current European leader would be able to maintain a relative stability in such a country.

Some compared him to Charles de Gaulle, and I somehow agree with that.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cassius on March 02, 2014, 09:05:10 AM
I think its a mistake for people to compare Putin to Hitler. I mean, from what I've read about him, Putin doesn't seem to possess the vast territorial ambitions that Hitler did, even if he does seem to desire some territorial expansion and the creation of a collection of pliant vassals surrounding Russia's borders. In a sense, his ambitions are far more practical, and achievable, than those held by Hitler. I'd also argue that Putin is far more stable and intelligent than Hitler ever was, so it would be dangerous to underestimate him in that category (though I'm not sure many do anyway).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 02, 2014, 09:15:18 AM
Kerry talking about economic sanctions and reversion to the G7 but twice says no military options are being considered. (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/01/nato_needs_to_move_now_on_crimea)

That Kaliningrad idea sounds fantastic. EU should approve that ASAP.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: windjammer on March 02, 2014, 09:19:27 AM
Kalwejt, how is Poland reacting?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2014, 09:22:57 AM
That Kaliningrad idea sounds fantastic. EU should approve that ASAP.

Even better, could Poland and Lithuania do that on their own?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Silent Hunter on March 02, 2014, 10:34:30 AM
Worth mentioning that a number of journalists have had their body armour stolen from them by militia in Crimea.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on March 02, 2014, 10:36:28 AM
Putin is not Hitler.  He is Russian, and his goals are traditionally Russian.

It has been the Russian goal, for about 250 years, to have a major naval presence and a warm water port, in the Black Sea.  If Putin feels that possibility is threatened, he will take whatever action he needs to take.

What I think will happen is an "independent" Crimea, that is a Russian client (or puppet) state, or outright annexation.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 02, 2014, 10:57:07 AM
The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on March 02, 2014, 10:58:31 AM
Yeah I'm viewing a Crimea on the lines of Northern Cyprus or Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabagh). Then the international community would be happy not to have to actually react. I don't think Putin eventually moves towards annexing Eastern Ukraine or actually splitting it. It would be opening a can of the proverbial worms, and Putin wants stability.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 02, 2014, 11:01:22 AM
Yeah I'm viewing a Crimea on the lines of Northern Cyprus or Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabagh).

Which has been more or less confirmed by the new Crimean government since they announced today that the referendum on March 30 is gonna decide whether Crimea wants to become an "independent" country.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on March 02, 2014, 11:05:09 AM
It won't be recognized by much, maybe only Russia and Belarus, perhaps a few more of the CIS.

France and the UK have also suspended their participation in the G8's preparation btw.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: SPC on March 02, 2014, 11:08:45 AM
Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Well, there is a second scenario. Imagine the EU reacting with a trade boycott on Russia that includes transit of Russian goods over EU territory. That would effectively cut off Kaliningrad oblast from the remainder of Russia, and leave Russia with three choices:
1. Trade in Kaliningrad for Crimea (highly unlikely)
2. Give in on Crimea / Ukraine
3. Try to use military force in order to keep supply routes to Kaliningrad open, which would imply aggression on Lithuania, and as such invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

As such, the Lithuanian request indicates to me that blocking Kaliningrad is being seriously considered. What is the Lithuanian position on this issue, and how the EU will ultimately decide, is another question, but the EU is having quite an ace up their sleeve still.



Can't they just ship everything between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg, or perform a Kaliningrad Airlift?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 02, 2014, 11:23:54 AM
Today, Russian riot police units heroically ended treacherous "peace rallies" in Moscow:

()

()

()




Also, anti-Russian protests in Warsaw...

()

And in Riga too...

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 02, 2014, 11:25:12 AM
Weird how Merkel hasn't said anything publicly. Are there any pending NATO applications? Those should be approved ASAP. Brzezinski also outlined an excellent plan on Zakaria's show which is very similar to that FP piece I posted earlier.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 02, 2014, 11:27:29 AM
Weird how Merkel hasn't said anything publicly.

That isn't weird behavior for Merkel though.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 02, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-politics/ (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-politics/)
And lets ratchet it up another notch...

The Ukraine has begun to moblize... While a full-scale Georgia-style invasion probably still doesn't make much sense for Putin, the question does have to be asked... If something like that happens, how long could Ukraine hold out?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 12:02:53 PM
Don't know if anyone else has mentioned it, but while this is happening, Alexei Navalny has been placed under house arrested and forbidden to use the internet.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MurrayBannerman on March 02, 2014, 12:03:12 PM
Where would the EU get their gas and oil with the blockade of Kaliningrad?

Also, Merkel is cracking under the pressure at Germany's first chance since the 1930's to emerge as a European leader. If I were a German citizen, I would be furious.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 12:15:32 PM
Kaliningrad idea seems good on paper, but it's a fantasy.

First, the Russians are already using air and sea as a major transport venue. And how would you propose to cut it? By a naval blockade against the Russian Navy? You do realize this is an act of war.

Beside, Russia doesn't need to lift a single arm. Europe is still heavily dependant on their gas and oil. Very uncomfortable, but true. In such confrontation it'll be a matter of time before we would give in.

I'm sorry but what else do you expect? Let our economy utterly collapse or freeze to death in winter?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 02, 2014, 12:27:05 PM
The new Head of the Ukrainian Navy has sworn an oath of allegiance to Crimea.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: windjammer on March 02, 2014, 12:30:19 PM
The new Head of the Ukrainian Navy has sworn an oath of allegiance to Crimea.
What a moron and a corrupt bastard...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Franknburger on March 02, 2014, 12:33:30 PM
Also, Merkel is cracking under the pressure at Germany's first chance since the 1930's to emerge as a European leader. If I were a German citizen, I would be furious.

As a German citizen with a bit of knowledge about 20th century Eastern European history, I would be furious if Merkel (or any other leading German politician, for that matter) would come out with any sort of statement that isn't extremely well thought over, agreed with major partners (US, UK, France, Poland etc.), and hasn't been based on prior intensive talks with Russia on possible ways out.

In addition, note that Steinmeyer has been visiting the USA on Friday, while Merkel visited the UK yesterday. I assume they haven't yet had too much time to sit together and draw conclusions. I could also imagine a bit of follow-up on the respective visits still going on.
Last but not least, already a few weeks ago CSU (!) politicians had proposed nominating Gerhard Schroder as mediator, for his cordial relation to Putin. At that time, Schroder had declined, but recent events may have lead him to change his mind. In that case, he will definitely have requested free hand and demanded the German government to refrain from any official statement as long as he is trying to get some kind of deal settled.

Don't mistake public comments for leadership...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on March 02, 2014, 12:36:33 PM
The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

But that is what it is about, the possibility of the base on hostile soil.

If you were an ethic Russian official sitting in Moscow 100 years ago today you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have go through the territories filled with Poles, Finns, Belorussians and Ukrainians, that we govern before the set foot on Russian soil.  In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them.

If you were an ethnic Russian military official sitting in Moscow 30 years ago today, you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have to get past our Allies in East Germany, Czechoslovakia  and then Poland.  Even then, if they enter the Soviet Union, they will have to get past Belorussia and the Ukraine before they step on Russian soil.   In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them."

Today?

I'm not defending Putin, but I do understand why he might be a tad worried.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Beezer on March 02, 2014, 12:39:04 PM
Except that while Russia is stuck in the 19th century, most of Europe has moved on and is not about to invade the Motherland.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 12:39:44 PM
The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

But that is what it is about, the possibility of the base on hostile soil.

If you were an ethic Russian official sitting in Moscow 100 years ago today you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have go through the territories filled with Poles, Finns, Belorussians and Ukrainians, that we govern before the set foot on Russian soil.  In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them.

If you were an ethnic Russian military official sitting in Moscow 30 years ago today, you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have to get past our Allies in East Germany, Czechoslovakia  and then Poland.  Even then, if they enter the Soviet Union, they will have to get past Belorussia and the Ukraine before they step on Russian soil.   In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them."

Today?

I'm not defending Putin, but I do understand why he might be a tad worried.



Of course, no one is going to invade Russia ever.

As this incident shows, even when they give people reason to take military action against them, no one does.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 02, 2014, 12:44:03 PM
FT reporting that no military contingencies were discussed at the NATO meeting (https://twitter.com/SpiegelPeter/status/440170706332966913), which was not held under Article 4. (https://twitter.com/SpiegelPeter/status/440173566965739520)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 12:49:57 PM
Christ J.J...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: politicallefty on March 02, 2014, 01:21:45 PM
Any news about Yanukovich? It'd be nice if they managed to arrest him before he flees to Russia.

He's either north, west, east, or south of Kharkiv.

Am I the only one that can draw the parallels to Romania 1989?

You certainly can draw parallels, but they wouldn't really be appropriate.

I'll admit I was very wrong about this situation. At the time, I was expecting a Ceausescu-like result for Yanukovych. Obviously, I was very wrong.

This situation is very troubling. The US cannot be the primary country opposing Russia at this point. The US has virtually no political capital in influencing Russia. Unless a major European power makes a stand, Russia will have its way with non-NATO Eastern Europe.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 01:43:44 PM
Kaliningrad idea seems good on paper, but it's a fantasy.

First, the Russians are already using air and sea as a major transport venue. And how would you propose to cut it? By a naval blockade against the Russian Navy? You do realize this is an act of war.

Beside, Russia doesn't need to lift a single arm. Europe is still heavily dependant on their gas and oil. Very uncomfortable, but true. In such confrontation it'll be a matter of time before we would give in.

I'm sorry but what else do you expect? Let our economy utterly collapse or freeze to death in winter?

For the moment, it would be enough to stop the lan routes. Let them send everything by air or ship: flying outside the European airspace.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 01:44:26 PM
The US and American posters ought to stop speaking from a moral high ground given our aggressive post-Cold War wars against Panama, Iraq, Sudan, etc.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on March 02, 2014, 01:48:35 PM
Should we be worried? they won't send nukes over to the USA? lol.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 02, 2014, 01:48:49 PM
The US and American posters ought to stop speaking from a moral high ground given our aggressive post-Cold War wars against Panama, Iraq, Sudan, etc.

Yes, seeing as how every single American supported those wars no American has any right to ever criticize Russia for imperialist actions. It's a shame absolutely no Americans opposed or protested those wars.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 01:53:40 PM
I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: IceSpear on March 02, 2014, 01:58:35 PM
I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

lol at you buying that protecting ethnic Russians is the reason Putin invaded. Even Bush going to Iraq due to WMDs was more believable.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:01:58 PM
I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

lol at you buying that protecting ethnic Russians is the reason Putin invaded. Even Bush going to Iraq due to WMDs was more believable.

At the very least it gives Russia far more interest in Ukraine, and wanting control over Russian areas is quite clearly a goal of Putin's. Really, the only parts of Ukraine meaningfully different from Russia are the areas that were part of Austria-Hungary and then Poland, and were annexed into Russia in 1939.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 02:03:11 PM
I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: afleitch on March 02, 2014, 02:04:25 PM
Personally I don't care for either side that much in a confrontational situation. But I know which side intends to return to a full democracy and functioning constitution. And I know which side is currently encouraging a foreign military incursion.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:05:28 PM
I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 02:06:14 PM
The President, the Prime Minister, and the leader of the largest governing party in Ukraine are all native Russian speakers from Eastern Ukraine.

The chances of their government taking hostile action against Russian Ukrainians is about the same as the chances of Obama launching a genocide against White people.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 02:08:32 PM
I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

()

You don't like double standards? Then why do you oppose aggressive American military action but defend aggressive Russian military action?

This is the second time I am pointing out your own double standard.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:10:30 PM
I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Oakvale on March 02, 2014, 02:14:51 PM
Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime

()()()()


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 02:16:13 PM
I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

If you don't support Russian military action and you don't like propaganda then why are you buying into Russia's obvious propaganda about their reasons for invading?

Again, because you don't actually mind propaganda, you just have a knee jerk hatred for America or in this case, a movement you perceive as being American backed even though it wasn't. Additionally, you only believe America was behind it because, again amusingly, Russian propaganda.

Furthermore, most people supporting the revolution have been very honest about the fact that far right elements are involved. No one has denied it. We've just denied the ridiculous claim that all the protesters are Nazis or that the entire movement can be summed up as Nazis.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 02:16:54 PM
I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Some of them had snipers shoot random protesters. Others didn't. It's obvious which side are the good guys.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:19:46 PM
I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Some of them had snipers shoot random protesters. Others didn't. It's obvious which side are the good guys.

Neither, given that said protesters also overthrew a democratically-elected government they happened to dislike, then proceeded to strip away protections for non-Ukrainians in Ukraine. It's just that the oligarchs behind Euromaidan are pro-Western and want to join the EU, so they must be the good guys! CNN and the New York Times told me so! The only solution is for the Ukrainian conflict to become a class struggle (class was disappointingly a non-factor in the revolution) and for Ukraine's proletariat to overthrow both the pro-Brussels thugs and the pro-Moscow thugs.

And I never said that America was behind the protests (though I'm sure that Obama has something to do with the far-right rich kids trying to bring fascism back to Venezuela).


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 02, 2014, 02:21:29 PM
I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

()

You don't like double standards? Then why do you oppose aggressive American military action but defend aggressive Russian military action?

This is the second time I am pointing out your own double standard.

For the record Plante was released October 17, 2012. She was in jail for a whole week.

The sad thing is whoever made that probably could've found a decent comparison if they dug around for a bit more (much like how the Free Mumia people hurt the cause of the anti-death penalty movement by focusing on a guy who was almost certainly guilty and ignoring far stronger cases.)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 02, 2014, 02:21:48 PM
Irritation at the excesses of much of the Western media coverage is fine, but I'm sure you can express that without parroting Russian propaganda.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Oakvale on March 02, 2014, 02:23:06 PM
Neither, given that said protesters also overthrew a democratically-elected government they happened to dislike, then proceeded to strip away protections for non-Ukrainians in Ukraine. It's just that the oligarchs behind Euromaidan are pro-Western and want to join the EU, so they must be the good guys! CNN and the New York Times told me so!

Putin is a noble hero valiantly protecting his people from oligarchs and Eurocrats. The People's Cynic told me so. :)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 02, 2014, 02:24:57 PM
Putin's concern is maintaining the Crimean bases, warm-water Black Sea ports with access to the Med and beyond - it's the most Russian thing there is, that plus a bruised ego of having his puppet thrown out of office. You're fooling yourself if you think there is anything more to this than that.

It's OK there's allowed to be a bad guy here...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 02:25:11 PM
I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Some of them had snipers shoot random protesters. Others didn't. It's obvious which side are the good guys.

Neither, given that said protesters also overthrew a democratically-elected government they happened to dislike, then proceeded to strip away protections for non-Ukrainians in Ukraine. It's just that the oligarchs behind Euromaidan are pro-Western and want to join the EU, so they must be the good guys! CNN and the New York Times told me so! The only solution is for the Ukrainian conflict to become a class struggle (class was disappointingly a non-factor in the revolution) and for Ukraine's proletariat to overthrow both the pro-Brussels thugs and the pro-Moscow thugs.

And I never said that America was behind the protests (though I'm sure that Obama has something to do with the far-right rich kids trying to bring fascism back to Venezuela).

No "protections" were stripped away. Russian was removed as an official language, which it had only been for a couple of months. I personally think that was a dumb move but it doesn't endanger Russian speakers anymore than they were endangered from 1991-2013.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:28:38 PM
Putin's concern is maintaining the Crimean bases, warm-water Black Sea ports with access to the Med and beyond - it's the most Russian thing there is, that plus a bruised ego of having his puppet thrown out of office. You're fooling yourself if you think there is anything more to this than that.

It's OK there's allowed to be a bad guy here...

There's no reason for Crimea to be part of Ukraine. The "bad guys" are the rich corrupt thugs who oppress Ukraine's working class, whether they're Merkel's puppets or Putin's puppets.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Oakvale on March 02, 2014, 02:29:44 PM
Sidenote: I'm greatly enjoying the bizarre Merkel/Putin equivalency Snowstalker is babbling about here.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: IceSpear on March 02, 2014, 02:29:50 PM
I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Yanukovych killed his own country's people. The new government has not. So no, they aren't "just as bad".


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 02, 2014, 02:31:45 PM
Putin's concern is maintaining the Crimean bases, warm-water Black Sea ports with access to the Med and beyond - it's the most Russian thing there is, that plus a bruised ego of having his puppet thrown out of office. You're fooling yourself if you think there is anything more to this than that.

It's OK there's allowed to be a bad guy here...

There's no reason for Crimea to be part of Ukraine. The "bad guys" are the rich corrupt thugs who oppress Ukraine's working class, whether they're Merkel's puppets or Putin's puppets.

The point is, it is part of Ukraine.

Stop being mindless parrot ...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 02:34:25 PM
Snowstalker, you're not helping your cause.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:34:35 PM
I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Yanukovych killed his own country's people. The new government has not. So no, they aren't "just as bad".

Yanukovych was, again, awful, but what would you do if a motley crew of "enlightened" neoliberals and neo-Nazi skinheads were attempting to overthrow of a democratically-elected government?

Again, this is what happens when you try to have a revolution without an organized left (and attempted leftist protests against the government were quickly quashed by Svoboda thugs). When it's right-wingers vs. right-wingers, everyone loses except the moneyed elites.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 02:36:19 PM
Putin's concern is maintaining the Crimean bases, warm-water Black Sea ports with access to the Med and beyond - it's the most Russian thing there is, that plus a bruised ego of having his puppet thrown out of office. You're fooling yourself if you think there is anything more to this than that.

It's OK there's allowed to be a bad guy here...

There's no reason for Crimea to be part of Ukraine. The "bad guys" are the rich corrupt thugs who oppress Ukraine's working class, whether they're Merkel's puppets or Putin's puppets.

There is no reason for you to be spouting nonsense in support of various fascist dictators all over the world either. Nevertheless, you are continuously doing it: just for fun, I presume.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:37:44 PM
Putin's concern is maintaining the Crimean bases, warm-water Black Sea ports with access to the Med and beyond - it's the most Russian thing there is, that plus a bruised ego of having his puppet thrown out of office. You're fooling yourself if you think there is anything more to this than that.

It's OK there's allowed to be a bad guy here...

There's no reason for Crimea to be part of Ukraine. The "bad guys" are the rich corrupt thugs who oppress Ukraine's working class, whether they're Merkel's puppets or Putin's puppets.

There is no reason for you to be spouting nonsense in support of various fascist dictators all over the world either. Nevertheless, you are continuously doing it: just for fun, I presume.

The fascists are the ones who used a modified swastika as their party symbol and now hold several cabinet seats in the new government, no?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Yank2133 on March 02, 2014, 02:39:30 PM
Snowstalker pure leftist act was fun at first......now it is just sad.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on March 02, 2014, 02:42:27 PM
Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime

()()()()

Hummm, where have I heard about protecting minorities in Eastern Europe before?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on March 02, 2014, 02:45:26 PM
Except that while Russia is stuck in the 19th century, most of Europe has moved on and is not about to invade the Motherland.

I didn'r say i agreed.  I said I understood.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 02, 2014, 02:45:50 PM
I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

()

"Refusal to provide a grand jury testimony concerning activists in the region" sounds very civil and peaceful unless one knows that those "activists" ::)  were black bloc anarchist thugs who engaged in extensive vandalism during May Day 2012 protests in Seattle.  By contrast, Pussy Riot caused no damage with their protest.  So trying to equate the two is absurd.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on March 02, 2014, 02:46:29 PM

i repeat.  I said I understood, not that I agreed.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 02:46:54 PM

You mean, ultra-rightist, don't you?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2014, 02:47:41 PM
Bullsh*t is strong with this thread.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 02, 2014, 02:49:24 PM
This thread is rapidly turning into as much of a catastrophe as the current political situation in Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: J. J. on March 02, 2014, 02:50:51 PM
What are our treaty obligations with Ukraine like?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 02, 2014, 02:51:08 PM
I was just going to post "where is Tony with a Stop Saying Words! meme when you need it" but I see he just posted.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 02, 2014, 02:52:05 PM
Snow is full of so much false equivalence it's not funny. This is not about SAGE class or something you've read on a blog or something to do with left v right.  This is about Russia's military strategy and it has been Russia's military strategy since Peter the Great.

Yanukovych was not some  kind  of innocent party - he was elected with the help of Russia and on the back of ethnic Russians - he was a puppet, no the opposition are NOT Merkel's puppets. The parts of Ukraine where people live do not want to be tied Russia and want to look to the EU (if you had a choice between Russia or the EU... I think I'd know what most sensible people would choose) - The President then chose a blatant bribe from Russia etc etc etc


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 02:52:29 PM
What are our treaty obligations with Ukraine like?

You have guaranteed its independence territorial integrity in exchange for taking its nukes. I guess, if you are not willing to put a few tank divisions in ASAP, you should give the Kiev government their nukes back.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Yank2133 on March 02, 2014, 02:52:52 PM

You mean, ultra-rightist, don't you?

Yeah, that is more accurate.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 02:53:35 PM
As you all remember, I was one of those deeply concerned about the fascist groups participating in the events and I still am.

However, that does not excuse the Russian intervention, which is a blatant breach of the international law. Such action is making already fragile situation even more dangerous, playing right into the hands of extremists, not to mention all international implications.

Snowstalker, you can't consider yourself a real opponent of imperialism if you have no problem with what is Putin doing. If you don't, then you're a hypocrite not to be taken seriously (but I guess it's too late anyway).

And btw, Russians on Crimea were not threathen.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2014, 02:54:46 PM
I was just going to post "where is Tony with a Stop Saying Words! meme when you need it" but I see he just posted.

:)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 02, 2014, 02:54:53 PM
Kalwejt is spot on.


That, at least, is completely irrelevant to his status as an 'innocent party' or otherwise...


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 02, 2014, 02:55:40 PM
Now here's a tough question: is there a single politician in Ukraine - of any persuasion - who isn't a complete idiot?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 02:55:57 PM
Again, I don't think Putin is making the right decision, especially if Russian intervention ends up extending outside Crimea, and I hope he's overthrown at some point by the Russian workers (hopefully in a more leftist protest than the Euromaidan ;)). Obviously invading would only give more legitimacy to the far-right elements of Euromaidan.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 02:56:33 PM
Anyway, Russia and the new Crimean government are both acknowledging that Crimea is nominally Ukraine at this point. My guess is nothing happens on the ground until the referendum at the end of the month. Best case scenario would be a strong majority in favor of independence that the Ukrainian government decides not to contest too hard.

If the ballot is seriously disputed, all bets are off.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 02, 2014, 02:56:48 PM
Kalwejt is spot on.


That, at least, is completely irrelevant to his status as an 'innocent party' or otherwise...

You're right, but it flowed, so I kept it.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 02, 2014, 02:57:48 PM
I never thought there would be a time when German troops would be a positive force in the Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 02, 2014, 03:00:12 PM
Again, I don't think Putin is making the right decision, especially if Russian intervention ends up extending outside Crimea, and I hope he's overthrown at some point by the Russian workers (hopefully in a more leftist protest than the Euromaidan ;)). Obviously invading would only give more legitimacy to the far-right elements of Euromaidan.

My God the cheap seats must be comfortable for you to insist on sitting in them for so long.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 02, 2014, 03:06:26 PM
One mistake Bush seemed to do was think that Putin was a great guy. As low as an opinion of Bush I had, I assumed he would have realized that Putin was a worse guy than himself. Of course, Republicans are conveniently forgetting that when they attack Obama now. Maybe Bush liked the flat tax Putin had just implemented.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 02, 2014, 03:11:09 PM
What are the chances that a deal is worked out where the Ukraine formally gives Crimea to Russia, and then the Ukraine joins NATO?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MaxQue on March 02, 2014, 03:12:42 PM
What are the chances that a deal is worked out where the Ukraine formally gives Crimea to Russia, and then the Ukraine joins NATO?

None. Putin doesn't want Russia sharing a border with NATO.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 03:13:39 PM
What are the chances that a deal is worked out where the Ukraine formally gives Crimea to Russia, and then the Ukraine joins NATO?

None. Putin doesn't want Russia sharing a border with NATO.

Russia borders five NATO members already.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 02, 2014, 03:15:09 PM
What are the chances that a deal is worked out where the Ukraine formally gives Crimea to Russia, and then the Ukraine joins NATO?

None. Putin doesn't want Russia sharing a border with NATO.

And the Ukraine wants to keep Crimea. It's called a deal.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Storebought on March 02, 2014, 03:15:23 PM
One mistake Bush seemed to do was think that Putin was a great guy. As low as an opinion of Bush I had, I assumed he would have realized that Putin was a worse guy than himself. Of course, Republicans are conveniently forgetting that when they attack Obama now. Maybe Bush liked the flat tax Putin had just implemented.

The admiration on the part of the GOP was then, and is now, genuine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 02, 2014, 03:19:02 PM
Putin is playing a dangerous game here getting involved in Crimea. It's a pretty dire and unpredictable situation in Ukraine right now, I just hope it is resolved peacefully. But to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine in such a blatant fashion is a surprising move even for someone as careless as Mr. Putin.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 03:46:59 PM
Putin is playing a dangerous game here getting involved in Crimea. It's a pretty dire and unpredictable situation in Ukraine right now, I just hope it is resolved peacefully. But to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine in such a blatant fashion is a surprising move even for someone as careless as Mr. Putin.

The West won't do anything.

Just listen to the NATO press conference.

It's a win-win situation for Putin.



Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on March 02, 2014, 03:50:36 PM
Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.
This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 03:53:08 PM
But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

Honestly, given the brutality of Yanukovych in his response, I'm inclined to agree that the POR/Russians have done worse overall, but the Euromaidan cheerleading in this thread is something I felt warranted a response.

And yeah, that article is silly.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 03:54:00 PM
Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.
This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

The new government is almost guaranteed to become unpopular. Just like Yushchenko did. When that happens though, at least they won't send snipers to shoot the protesters.

The next next election will result in a left-wing candidate coming to power. Hopefully the voters aren't stupid enough to make it Yanukovych again.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on March 02, 2014, 03:56:29 PM
The problem is of course, there is no "left-wing" whatsoever that's tolerated in this coutry as of now. I fail to see how a truly left-wing, with broad popular support, could win the election in 2 or 3 years. Plus, if there's one thing pro-EU and pro-Russia oligarchs tend to agree on, is they don't want anything resembling a left-wing candidate with popular support near them or their assets.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 03:59:19 PM
Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.
This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

The new government is almost guaranteed to become unpopular. Just like Yushchenko did. When that happens though, at least they won't send snipers to shoot the protesters.

The next next election will result in a left-wing candidate coming to power. Hopefully the voters aren't stupid enough to make it Yanukovych again.

1. I doubt that the new government would be above violence.
2. Yanukovych is not remotely left-wing, nor is there a coherent or organized left in Ukraine.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 04:08:29 PM
Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.
This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

The new government is almost guaranteed to become unpopular. Just like Yushchenko did. When that happens though, at least they won't send snipers to shoot the protesters.

The next next election will result in a left-wing candidate coming to power. Hopefully the voters aren't stupid enough to make it Yanukovych again.

1. I doubt that the new government would be above violence.
2. Yanukovych is not remotely left-wing, nor is there a coherent or organized left in Ukraine.

1. What are you basing this belief on? Wishful thinking mostly.
2. Well, not to your standards, no. A candidate campaigning against austerity (regardless of how sincere) will win though.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: CatoMinor on March 02, 2014, 04:09:30 PM
I think it is safe to call that this thread has officially been killed by Snowstalker.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 04:21:42 PM
This is unbearable

Quote from: Snowstalker
This user is currently ignored.

Sweet relief :)


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ilikeverin on March 02, 2014, 04:22:47 PM
Now here's a tough question: is there a single politician in Ukraine - of any persuasion - who isn't a complete idiot?

Yulia's braids.  Not her herself, but her braids seem pretty intelligent.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 04:36:28 PM
Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.
This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

The new government is almost guaranteed to become unpopular. Just like Yushchenko did. When that happens though, at least they won't send snipers to shoot the protesters.

The next next election will result in a left-wing candidate coming to power. Hopefully the voters aren't stupid enough to make it Yanukovych again.

1. I doubt that the new government would be above violence.
2. Yanukovych is not remotely left-wing, nor is there a coherent or organized left in Ukraine.

1. What are you basing this belief on? Wishful thinking mostly.
2. Well, not to your standards, no. A candidate campaigning against austerity (regardless of how sincere) will win though.

The FN in France and the BNP in Britain are nominally anti-austerity too. Does that make them leftists?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: bgwah on March 02, 2014, 05:03:04 PM
Seriously. This was an interesting thread on a serious topic. The mods ban Opebo but allow this sh**t? Ridiculous.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: afleitch on March 02, 2014, 05:13:31 PM
I'm fine with giving people enough rope to hang themselves with.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 02, 2014, 05:30:26 PM
I think it is safe to call that this thread has officially been killed by Snowstalker.

He's our resident serial-killer.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 02, 2014, 05:32:45 PM
Now here's a tough question: is there a single politician in Ukraine - of any persuasion - who isn't a complete idiot?

Fixed.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Cassius on March 02, 2014, 05:34:45 PM
One mistake Bush seemed to do was think that Putin was a great guy. As low as an opinion of Bush I had, I assumed he would have realized that Putin was a worse guy than himself. Of course, Republicans are conveniently forgetting that when they attack Obama now. Maybe Bush liked the flat tax Putin had just implemented.

To be fair to Bush, didn't he make that comment (some of which is hardly innacurate- the bits about Putin's patriotism and so forth) at a time when Putin was a relatively unknown quantity, and indeed, in some quarters, seen as a breath of fresh air after the Yeltsin years. So, I can understand Bush trying to hit it off with Putin, especially since, at the time, there was some (albeit rather wishful) thinking that America and Russia could make good strategic partners with rgeards to some of the changes happening in Asia at the time.

Enter a lonely, courageous Ukrainian rebel, a leading investigative journalist. A dark-skinned journalist who gets racially profiled by the regime. And a Muslim. And an Afghan. This is Mustafa Nayem, the man who started the revolution. Using social media, he called students and other young people to rally on the main square of Kiev in support of a European choice for Ukraine. That square is called the Maidan, which by the way is an Arab word. During the first few days of the protests the students called it the Euromaidan. Russian propaganda called it, predictably enough, the Gayeuromaidan.
This part is of course hilarious. I hope it's meant in parody. As if a lonely courageous guy had started a super cool revolution by himself on #Twitter !!!1!1!! Seriously.

Snowstalker, I agree with you on the fundamentals. But you could word things better.

Of course, it's not a revolution if it's not the working people's revolution. Things will be awful when any government of pro-EU oligarchs start to implement EU austerity at its finest and the people is wholly disappointed and doesn't know what to do next.

But you have to at least acknowledge that the pro-Russia side is indeed worst in its actions than the pro-EU one. That doesn't mean that either of them is good for on the long-term for the working class though.

The new government is almost guaranteed to become unpopular. Just like Yushchenko did. When that happens though, at least they won't send snipers to shoot the protesters.

The next next election will result in a left-wing candidate coming to power. Hopefully the voters aren't stupid enough to make it Yanukovych again.

1. I doubt that the new government would be above violence.
2. Yanukovych is not remotely left-wing, nor is there a coherent or organized left in Ukraine.

1. What are you basing this belief on? Wishful thinking mostly.
2. Well, not to your standards, no. A candidate campaigning against austerity (regardless of how sincere) will win though.

The FN in France and the BNP in Britain are nominally anti-austerity too. Does that make them leftists?

But does that make them, as I assume you might term them, neoliberal tools of the global elite? Not particularly.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: politicus on March 02, 2014, 05:35:41 PM
Seriously. This was an interesting thread on a serious topic. The mods ban Opebo but allow this sh**t? Ridiculous.

There would be no sh**t if people stopped taking the bait. Don't feed the Snowtroll guys, its not that hard.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 05:38:14 PM
Seriously. This was an interesting thread on a serious topic. The mods ban Opebo but allow this sh**t? Ridiculous.

At least I don't support PETA?


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 05:46:31 PM
Seriously. This was an interesting thread on a serious topic. The mods ban Opebo but allow this sh**t? Ridiculous.

There would be no sh**t if people stopped taking the bait. Don't feed the Snowtroll guys, its not that hard.

Sorry. I couldn't help myself, like I said, it was such a glaring double standard I had to point it out. Plus my Facebook feed is packed with lots of otherwise semi-rational leftists condemning the "Nazi coup." These are people I know in real life who definitely aren't trolls, just grossly misinformed. There's even people citing the American ambassadors tapped phone call as evidence American engendered the coup and it's like seriously, did you even listen to it? It pretty much proves the exactly opposite, that America wanted Yanukovych to stay in power for stability's shape. In fact, she even went all Moderate Hero and condemned Klitschko for no good reason.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 02, 2014, 06:00:13 PM
I remember a lecture by Otto von Habsburg, who told Putin was quite notorius during his time as KGB officer in Saxony. That was around 2002.

Did he elaborate, or stopped here?

I must say I always wanted to know more on Putin's professional record there.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Zanas on March 02, 2014, 06:00:39 PM
The reading of RT's website (formerly Russia Today) is very interesting in these times. That is to say if you have the judgment to read between the lines, which not all of us seem to have...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: afleitch on March 02, 2014, 06:03:54 PM
Topic name changed.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 02, 2014, 06:08:39 PM
John Kerry to be in Kiev on Tuesday.

Good move as far as symbolism goes.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 06:14:00 PM
The reading of RT's website (formerly Russia Today) is very interesting in these times. That is to say if you have the judgment to read between the lines, which not all of us seem to have...

What? Just that it's pro-Russian or is there something more? Too lazy to read a bunch of articles. Also, there doesn't even seem to be that many...maybe that's what you meant.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: afleitch on March 02, 2014, 06:19:20 PM
UK's William Hague heading there too.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 02, 2014, 06:24:19 PM
Merkel has apparently convinced Putin to allow an OSCE "fact-finding" mission to Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on March 02, 2014, 06:44:02 PM
Re: reactionary politics and bigotry...

Quote
What is most worrying is that the new government cannot control the infamous Right Sector. Its members are now popular heroes, the vanguard of the victorious "revolution". They have guns captured from police departments in the western regions and now, after Yanukovych's toppling, are demanding that the revolution needs to continue against "corrupt democracy" and liberalism. The liberals celebrating their decisiveness and crucial role in the Maidan movement are now discovering the right's reactionary ideas. Recently, the press secretary of the Right Sector gave an interview saying "we need to tell Europe the right way to go"and save it from the "terrible situation" of "total liberalism", when people don't go to church and are tolerant of lesbian, gay bisexual and transgender rights.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/ukraine-genuine-revolution-tackle-corruption (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/ukraine-genuine-revolution-tackle-corruption)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 02, 2014, 06:51:25 PM
The reading of RT's website (formerly Russia Today) is very interesting in these times. That is to say if you have the judgment to read between the lines, which not all of us seem to have...

What? Just that it's pro-Russian or is there something more? Too lazy to read a bunch of articles. Also, there doesn't even seem to be that many...maybe that's what you meant.
You know, it's a little bit more complicated than that. It always is... There are quite a number of articles actually, and what they tell is a good indication of where the Russian propaganda wants to go. If you read RT, you could predict what Snowstalkers will be saying tomorrow, and cut them before.

If you have a little understanding of geopolitics, and a bit of judgment, reading RT is quite valuable because you're gonna be able to tell when they are exaggerating something, plain just lying, or telling the truth. Because they obviously tell the truth at times, they just know how much bullsh**t they can pump in, and how to present things to tell their story. They're quite good actually.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 02, 2014, 06:56:22 PM
Russia Today is obviously silly propaganda, but then again so is most of what you get in America.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on March 02, 2014, 06:57:15 PM
Russia Today is obviously silly propaganda, but then again so is most of what you get in America.

Which is why we need you, of course, to tell us The Truth.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 02, 2014, 07:02:18 PM
The U.S Men's Soccer team is playing the Ukraine on Wednsday... With the Ukraine as the "Home Team".... The game is being played in Cyprus(?) a situation that may not have been the case before this crisis.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on March 02, 2014, 07:47:40 PM
Kerry will travel to Ukraine on Tuesday. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/john-kerry-russia-ukraine-104140.html?hp=t1)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 02, 2014, 07:52:09 PM
OFF TOPIC: This thread has so far added at least two people onto my ignore list. Please, I like to think of myself as kind. I don't want to add more.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2014, 08:17:35 PM
OFF TOPIC: This thread has so far added at least two people onto my ignore list. Please, I like to think of myself as kind. I don't want to add more.

If only Obama's threats had been as tough as this, Putin wouldn't have invaded.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on March 02, 2014, 08:18:39 PM
OFF TOPIC: This thread has so far added at least two people onto my ignore list. Please, I like to think of myself as kind. I don't want to add more.

If only Obama's threats had been as tough as this, Putin wouldn't have invaded.


You mean if only Obama had added Putin to his ignore list?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 02, 2014, 08:42:18 PM
Ukrainian unit overrun at Belbek airport.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 02, 2014, 09:52:58 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 09:54:13 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 02, 2014, 10:08:43 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Putin and the Russians would take McCain more seriously than they ever would Obama.

McCain would take a much firmer stance and wouldn't let the Russian dictator push him around.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 02, 2014, 10:13:55 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Putin and the Russians would take McCain more seriously than they ever would Obama.

McCain would take a much firmer stance and wouldn't let the Russian dictator push him around.

But what, specifically, do you think McCain would be able to do?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 10:14:41 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Putin and the Russians would take McCain more seriously than they ever would Obama.

McCain would take a much firmer stance and wouldn't let the Russian dictator push him around.


That's not a serious answer. "Because McCain is good and Obama is bad!"

What would McCain do policy-wise to make the Russians take him seriously?

What would he do policy-wise to make sure Putin didn't push him around?

Again, try not to include policies that would cause WWIII.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 02, 2014, 10:30:06 PM
Read this article

http://news.yahoo.com/mccain-punish-putin-000600943--politics.html


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 02, 2014, 10:34:05 PM
Haha. Restart missile defense. Because flushing a bunch of our own money down the toilet will really show those Russians.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 10:35:42 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Well, if somebody does not want WWIII what s/he should do is

1. Immediately stop all negotiations with the Russians on all matters not having to do with the withdrawal from Ukraine. No contacts whatsoever on any matters - however minor or innocuous. The non-essential personnel at the embassy (and families) should be removed ASAP and in a very demonstrative fashion, US citizens advised to avoid traveling to Russia (and those resident there, advised to leave). Consulates outside of Moscow should be closed. Restrict issuance of US visas to the holders of the Russian diplomatic and service passports to the Consular Sections of the US embassies in Kiev and Tbilisi (continue stamping the visas into the regular passports in Moscow, to the extent that the reduced consular representation makes it possible).  Russians should be forced to sharply reduce their embassy staff and close their consulates as well. Encourage the allies to take similar diplomatic measures.

2. Immediately impose painful economic sanctions on Russian elites. The Magnitsky list should be expanded to include a few thousand people, at least (including the families of all the Russian MPs who voted to authorize the use of force in Ukraine). Put under the sanction regime all major Russian public and semi-public companies (including the likes of Gazprom). All financial transactions between US and Russia should be put under scrutiny. Russia should be put under notice that unless all troops are removed ASAP, all Russian assets in the US will be confiscated and used to finance the Ukrainian government (any attempt to preemptively remove such assets at this point should be summarily blocked).  Impose a special tariff on all Russian exports and imports to be dedicated to financing of the Ukrainian government.  Restrict the use of the US  airspace to all Russian air traffic.

3. Urgently remove all the restrictions on oil exports from the US. Guarantee, as much as possible, to the Europeans that their energy needs will be taken care of no matter what happens, as long as they join with the sanctions regime. Especially encourage the Turks to join in (they should not be too hard a sell - they are worried). Stress, that Turkish government will get the full support of the US in suspending the action of the Montreux convention on the Straights navigation: Bosporus has to be closed off ASAP. Lithuanians and Poles should be given guarantees of full support in closing the land transit to Kaliningrad.

4. Resume, very publically, the negotiations with the European allies on missile protection systems.  Make it clear that this is done in response to the new situation.

5. Start, as soon as practicable, major war exercises with the NATO partners in the region - both around the Black Sea and in the Baltics (as practicably close to St. Petersburg as possible). Reinforce NATO garrisons in Poland, the Baltics and in Norway. Negotiate with the Ukrainian government a few bases inside Ukraine (in friendly, pro-Western areas - but this would not only be Lviv, but also Sumy and Chernihiv, right on the Russian border). 

6. Another major war exercise should be conducted with the Japanese, around the Northern coast of Hokkaido. Support should be hinted to the Japanese claim on the Northern Territories. If Georgians and Turks agree, have the Turkish troops take positions on the LOCs near South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Have Moldovans and Romanians start very public negotiations about establishing Romanian bases near Transnistria.

7. At the same time, US diplomats should be rushed to Central Asia and other ex-Soviet states, offering guarantees of protection against the Russian invasion. Those visits should be very public - give them as much media coverage as possible, have Kerry himself go to Astana. The Kyrgyzstan airbase should be reinforced, if the Kyrgyz government allows (make it very hard for them not to allow).

If all this is done in rapid succession and decisively, there is still some chance of avoiding WWIII.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 02, 2014, 10:37:36 PM
Haha. Restart missile defense. Because flushing a bunch of our own money down the toilet will really show those Russians.

He does some good proposals however.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 10:39:20 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Putin and the Russians would take McCain more seriously than they ever would Obama.

McCain would take a much firmer stance and wouldn't let the Russian dictator push him around.


Again, try not to include policies that would cause WWIII.

The only policy that would lead to WWIII is appeasement. Do not appease.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 10:45:46 PM
Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 02, 2014, 10:53:15 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

Yes, those long drawn out wars in both Iraq and Iran fighting people who aren't allied with Putin would come in handy here. Putin will be just thinking "One of those two, or the actual Afghanistan has to be their Afghanistan. Morons."


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Lincoln Republican on March 02, 2014, 11:02:45 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

Yes, those long drawn out wars in both Iraq and Iran fighting people who aren't allied with Putin would come in handy here. Putin will be just thinking "One of those two, or the actual Afghanistan has to be their Afghanistan. Morons."

At no point does McCain call for military intervention, in fact

"McCain stresses that there is no U.S. military option for responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine, nor should there be. NATO response is not a viable option, and the Ukrainians can’t fight the Russians on their own, he said."


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 02, 2014, 11:17:32 PM
It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

Yes, those long drawn out wars in both Iraq and Iran fighting people who aren't allied with Putin would come in handy here. Putin will be just thinking "One of those two, or the actual Afghanistan has to be their Afghanistan. Morons."

At no point does McCain call for military intervention, in fact

"McCain stresses that there is no U.S. military option for responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine, nor should there be. NATO response is not a viable option, and the Ukrainians can’t fight the Russians on their own, he said."

I was referencing his "Bomb bomb bomb Iran" comment.
Oh yeah, we'd be fighting a 4th war with Syria, too.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 11:29:35 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/pressure-rising-as-obama-works-to-rein-in-russia.html

Quote
The Russian occupation of Crimea has challenged Mr. Obama as has no other international crisis, and at its heart, the advice seemed to pose the same question: Is Mr. Obama tough enough to take on the former K.G.B. colonel in the Kremlin? It is no easy task. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said.

Told you.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on March 02, 2014, 11:37:09 PM
Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

Yeah, punish a bunch of soccer players. Not like politicizing international sports hasn't backfired before.  That'll show Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 11:45:34 PM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 11:46:14 PM
Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

Yeah, punish a bunch of soccer players. Not like politicizing international sports hasn't backfired before.  That'll show Russia.

It will make Russians very unhappy. And will be a big strike against Putin´s personal tastes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 11:47:07 PM
Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

Yeah, punish a bunch of soccer players. Not like politicizing international sports hasn't backfired before.  That'll show Russia.

And, anyway, the sportsmen themselves should be allowed to perform - just not under the Russian flag. Renouncing Russian citizenship should be welcomed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 02, 2014, 11:49:13 PM
Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

Yeah, punish a bunch of soccer players. Not like politicizing international sports hasn't backfired before.  That'll show Russia.

Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

Read this article

http://news.yahoo.com/mccain-punish-putin-000600943--politics.html

Georgia into NATO? Even if McCain were President and far more persuasive than he actually is, there is zero chance that the Europeans would agree to that. Possibly, just possibly they'd agree to the Ukraine joining NATO once it has lost the Crimea, but even that would be a stretch.  Plus it's not as if NATO would be likely to move major forces into the Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 02, 2014, 11:49:43 PM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 02, 2014, 11:53:19 PM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 12:01:47 AM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 12:14:03 AM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

Seems like the guy knows what he is saying. Also, sounds fairly plausible - fits what I myself know.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 12:19:33 AM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

Seems like the guy knows what he is saying. Also, sounds fairly plausible - fits what I myself know.

Yeah, the scenario makes a lot of sense.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: moderatevoter on March 03, 2014, 12:24:47 AM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

I thought he was referring to VK at first, but I now understand that wasn't the case.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 01:18:09 AM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

I thought he was referring to VK at first, but I now understand that wasn't the case.

FB has been taking over even in Russia. VK remains in use, but increasingly the people who could have such inside info are not there.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 03, 2014, 01:19:41 AM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

If Russia was to invade say the eastern half of the Ukraine, I think the US would start redeploying most of its military to eastern Europe, and see if Putin takes the hint.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 01:30:36 AM
From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

If Russia was to invade say the eastern half of the Ukraine, I think the US would start redeploying most of its military to eastern Europe, and see if Putin takes the hint.

It would make a lot more sense to be doing it before, not after. Because by then Putin's cost of getting out would be a lot higher. And, if US does not do something very radical very soon, he WILL occupy a lot more.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 02:04:25 AM
I'm not so sure about this possible invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

If we believe in Russia's justification that Putin wants to protect their people (I don't), many maps posted in this thread showed that ethnic Russians are a plurality in little enclaves surrounded by ethnic Ukrainians. An intervention (and annexation) against that zones would destroy the credibility of the Casus Belli defended by Moscow.

I have "evolved" in my previous thoughts and I think that Putin wants Crimea for the only reason of not losing in a future Russian's naval bases and the traditional Manifest Destiny of every Russian Empire of an available-even-in-winter military port and a dominant position in the Black Sea.

Year after year the possibility of an "European" and pro NATO Ukraine increases.

That and the pipelines... but I would not talk about it because I've read different and many times contradictory information of the issue and I'm not a specialist in energy geopolitics.

--

In other words, if Putin  hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 03, 2014, 02:36:27 AM
In other words, if Putin didn't hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.

Well, IIRC he did say his inspiration in life was Napoleon Bonaparte. He might see the Western leadership as weak and consider this "his moment" to consolidate his legacy as a "great leader" for Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Bacon King on March 03, 2014, 03:40:51 AM
Putin is the kind of historical figure whose downfall would be caused by an ill-conceived invasion of Russia. This analysis is useless however due to the fact that Putin is already in charge of Russia


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 03, 2014, 03:49:34 AM
Moscow Stock Exchange got extremely nervous today and the Ruble took a dive.

Maybe Putin's achilles heel is that he's too fixiated on political and military power so that he underestimates the extent his economy is interconnected with the world. Perhaps the best way to go about this is to find a way to make the Russian oligarchs sh**t their pants.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: King on March 03, 2014, 04:21:26 AM
Perhaps the best way to go about this is to find a way to make the Russian oligarchs sh**t their pants.

I think that's the strategy with the economic summit boycotts.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on March 03, 2014, 05:31:27 AM
Good analysis from Malcolm Fraser: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/ukraine-theres-no-way-out-unless-the-west-understands-its-past-mistakes


Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

FIFA gave the World cup to Qatar, which is 10 times worse than Russia, they won't move the Cup out of Russia...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 03, 2014, 05:35:56 AM
Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on March 03, 2014, 05:39:16 AM
Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 03, 2014, 05:58:27 AM
Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.
They have been talking about it for ages. Of course that would make sense. One was built there during WW2 but it got broken by ice. Also the geological conditions seem to be very complicated to build a solid bridge.

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 03, 2014, 06:43:30 AM
Gazprom stock is collapsing.

According to SPIEGEL ONLINE, the company - which has the Russian government as its largest shareholder - has lost 45 billion Euro the last couple of days.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 03, 2014, 07:48:24 AM
Dmitry Medvedev posted a peculiar message on Twitter:

Quote
#Ukraine will always remain a very important economic partner for Russia. We must honour the obligations that were agreed to earlier

I wonder if this could finally drive a wedge between Putin and Medvedev. Putin is ex-KGB, so doesn't seem to comprehend. Medvedev on the other hand was once a business executive himself back in the 90s.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 08:03:09 AM
Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.

Land connection - sure. But it would not resolve the water problem.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 03, 2014, 08:05:27 AM
Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.
They have been talking about it for ages. Of course that would make sense. One was built there during WW2 but it got broken by ice. Also the geological conditions seem to be very complicated to build a solid bridge.

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !


Taiwan was ousted without any problem, so why not Russia?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 08:06:21 AM
Dmitry Medvedev posted a peculiar message on Twitter:

Quote
#Ukraine will always remain a very important economic partner for Russia. We must honour the obligations that were agreed to earlier

I wonder if this could finally drive a wedge between Putin and Medvedev. Putin is ex-KGB, so doesn't seem to comprehend. Medvedev on the other hand was once a business executive himself back in the 90s.

The myth of good Medvedev is a fairy tail for six-year-olds. To begin with, Medvedev has no political life of his own: even if for some reason he were to revolt, it would cause no more trouble to Putin then a malfunctioning ball pen.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 08:13:06 AM
Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.
They have been talking about it for ages. Of course that would make sense. One was built there during WW2 but it got broken by ice. Also the geological conditions seem to be very complicated to build a solid bridge.

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !


Taiwan was ousted without any problem, so why not Russia?

Can we please talk the events and viable solutions, instead of fantasy and excessive hyperboles?

I know this is Atlas and my call might be a fantasy as well, but deep down I'm still a naive fool believing we can somehow be reasonable.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Hash on March 03, 2014, 08:29:17 AM
This thread is a massive abortion. Make it stop.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: J. J. on March 03, 2014, 08:41:51 AM

Well, if somebody does not want WWIII what s/he should do is

1. Immediately stop all negotiations with the Russians on all matters not having to do with the withdrawal from Ukraine. No contacts whatsoever on any matters - however minor or innocuous. The non-essential personnel at the embassy (and families) should be removed ASAP and in a very demonstrative fashion, US citizens advised to avoid traveling to Russia (and those resident there, advised to leave). Consulates outside of Moscow should be closed. Restrict issuance of US visas to the holders of the Russian diplomatic and service passports to the Consular Sections of the US embassies in Kiev and Tbilisi (continue stamping the visas into the regular passports in Moscow, to the extent that the reduced consular representation makes it possible).  Russians should be forced to sharply reduce their embassy staff and close their consulates as well. Encourage the allies to take similar diplomatic measures.

2. Immediately impose painful economic sanctions on Russian elites. The Magnitsky list should be expanded to include a few thousand people, at least (including the families of all the Russian MPs who voted to authorize the use of force in Ukraine). Put under the sanction regime all major Russian public and semi-public companies (including the likes of Gazprom). All financial transactions between US and Russia should be put under scrutiny. Russia should be put under notice that unless all troops are removed ASAP, all Russian assets in the US will be confiscated and used to finance the Ukrainian government (any attempt to preemptively remove such assets at this point should be summarily blocked).  Impose a special tariff on all Russian exports and imports to be dedicated to financing of the Ukrainian government.  Restrict the use of the US  airspace to all Russian air traffic.

3. Urgently remove all the restrictions on oil exports from the US. Guarantee, as much as possible, to the Europeans that their energy needs will be taken care of no matter what happens, as long as they join with the sanctions regime. Especially encourage the Turks to join in (they should not be too hard a sell - they are worried). Stress, that Turkish government will get the full support of the US in suspending the action of the Montreux convention on the Straights navigation: Bosporus has to be closed off ASAP. Lithuanians and Poles should be given guarantees of full support in closing the land transit to Kaliningrad.

4. Resume, very publically, the negotiations with the European allies on missile protection systems.  Make it clear that this is done in response to the new situation.

5. Start, as soon as practicable, major war exercises with the NATO partners in the region - both around the Black Sea and in the Baltics (as practicably close to St. Petersburg as possible). Reinforce NATO garrisons in Poland, the Baltics and in Norway. Negotiate with the Ukrainian government a few bases inside Ukraine (in friendly, pro-Western areas - but this would not only be Lviv, but also Sumy and Chernihiv, right on the Russian border). 

6. Another major war exercise should be conducted with the Japanese, around the Northern coast of Hokkaido. Support should be hinted to the Japanese claim on the Northern Territories. If Georgians and Turks agree, have the Turkish troops take positions on the LOCs near South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Have Moldovans and Romanians start very public negotiations about establishing Romanian bases near Transnistria.

7. At the same time, US diplomats should be rushed to Central Asia and other ex-Soviet states, offering guarantees of protection against the Russian invasion. Those visits should be very public - give them as much media coverage as possible, have Kerry himself go to Astana. The Kyrgyzstan airbase should be reinforced, if the Kyrgyz government allows (make it very hard for them not to allow).

If all this is done in rapid succession and decisively, there is still some chance of avoiding WWIII.

This.

However, I don't think this crisis will evolve into WWII.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: muon2 on March 03, 2014, 08:46:30 AM
I'm not so sure about this possible invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

If we believe in Russia's justification that Putin wants to protect their people (I don't), many maps posted in this thread showed that ethnic Russians are a plurality in little enclaves surrounded by ethnic Ukrainians. An intervention (and annexation) against that zones would destroy the credibility of the Casus Belli defended by Moscow.

I have "evolved" in my previous thoughts and I think that Putin wants Crimea for the only reason of not losing in a future Russian's naval bases and the traditional Manifest Destiny of every Russian Empire of an available-even-in-winter military port and a dominant position in the Black Sea.

Year after year the possibility of an "European" and pro NATO Ukraine increases.

That and the pipelines... but I would not talk about it because I've read different and many times contradictory information of the issue and I'm not a specialist in energy geopolitics.

--

In other words, if Putin  hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.

This is not so different than some of my thoughts on the other thread about separation. However, a week ago there was a diplomatic path for the US to act to reopen the Budapest Memorandum and subsequent basing agreement for changes in status for both Crimea (more Russian sphere) and Ukraine (more EU/NATO sphere). I don't see that path as clearly now given actions by Russia and statements by the US.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 08:47:23 AM
Events. Pro-Russian "demonstrations" are storming the administration buildings in Odessa and Donetsk. The "demonstrators" (in the last few days they were being recruited in Russian social networks IN RUSSIA) are not at all numerous, but they are shooting. In Odessa, the besieged regional council has adopted a resolution AGAINST the Russian invasion.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 03, 2014, 09:23:24 AM
Paralympics are scheduled to start in Sochi as planned, although all Western politicians are probably going to boycott.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 09:25:08 AM
Paralympics are scheduled to start in Sochi as planned, although all Western politicians are probably going to boycott.

Given that the attention is no longer on Sochi and that the Russians are otherwise preoccupied, I would be scared to go, frankly. The security may well miss something.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 03, 2014, 09:31:30 AM
Very much relevant to this thread. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 09:46:30 AM
I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 03, 2014, 10:02:34 AM
Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !


By a vote of the General Assembly, it was stripped from the Republic of China to give it to the People's Republic of China over the objections of the former and of the US.  The UN Charter still lists the USSR and not Russia as the veto power, so the 1971 precedent could be used to give the USSR veto to another former Soviet republic, not that I think that would happen.  Maybe an outside chance the GA would vote that the veto needs to be collectively agreed upon by the former Soviet republics, but even that is far-fetched.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 03, 2014, 10:04:00 AM
Very much relevant to this thread. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY)

I was thinking of the very same thing actually.

Also what Kalwejt said.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 03, 2014, 10:05:44 AM
This thread is a massive abortion. Make it stop.

I thought green avatars were pro-choice?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 10:07:08 AM
Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

Quote
By a vote of the General Assembly, it was stripped from the Republic of China to give it to the People's Republic of China over the objections of the former and of the US.  The UN Charter still lists the USSR and not Russia as the veto power, so the 1971 precedent could be used to give the USSR veto to another former Soviet republic, not that I think that would happen.  Maybe an outside chance the GA would vote that the veto needs to be collectively agreed upon by the former Soviet republics, but even that is far-fetched.

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 03, 2014, 10:11:37 AM
Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

I agree that Russia is the logical choice, as is the PRC in the case of China, yet the UN has not always been constrained by logic.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 10:17:04 AM
Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

I agree that Russia is the logical choice, as is the PRC in the case of China, yet the UN has not always been constrained by logic.

Of course but it's a longshot. Beside, I don't think the other powers sitting in the Security Council would be thrilled with the precedent of removing one of them, regardless of what is going on now.

I find the Taiwan analogy quite ridiculous, as we're talking about a little island. Russia, as well as other permanent members, are not little and relatively weak islands.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 03, 2014, 10:19:36 AM
Very much relevant to this thread. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY)

Well, I wish this guy was president (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyLdtG7KZvw).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 10:31:25 AM
Black Sea Fleet has told the Crimean Ukrainian forces to surrender by 0300 GMT or face a "storm."


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 03, 2014, 10:35:46 AM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 10:49:37 AM
Ukrainians say they got a similar ultimatum 2 days ago.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 10:51:34 AM
Black Sea Fleet has told the Crimean Ukrainian forces to surrender by 0300 GMT or face a "storm."

Meanwhile, the Russian TV is proclaiming that all Ukrainian forces as Crimea has already swore an oath of alliegance to the "Army of Crimea".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: King on March 03, 2014, 10:54:14 AM
There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 03, 2014, 11:09:46 AM
Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

Quote
By a vote of the General Assembly, it was stripped from the Republic of China to give it to the People's Republic of China over the objections of the former and of the US.  The UN Charter still lists the USSR and not Russia as the veto power, so the 1971 precedent could be used to give the USSR veto to another former Soviet republic, not that I think that would happen.  Maybe an outside chance the GA would vote that the veto needs to be collectively agreed upon by the former Soviet republics, but even that is far-fetched.

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.
Oops - check out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

Russia seceded on December 12, 1991, two weeks before the USSR was formally dissolved. The last one to put out the lights was Kazakhstan.
[Not that having Kazakhstan replace Russia as UNSC veto power would really be much of an improvement....]


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 11:15:06 AM
Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

Quote
By a vote of the General Assembly, it was stripped from the Republic of China to give it to the People's Republic of China over the objections of the former and of the US.  The UN Charter still lists the USSR and not Russia as the veto power, so the 1971 precedent could be used to give the USSR veto to another former Soviet republic, not that I think that would happen.  Maybe an outside chance the GA would vote that the veto needs to be collectively agreed upon by the former Soviet republics, but even that is far-fetched.

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.
Oops - check out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

Russia seceded on December 12, 1991, two weeks before the USSR was formally dissolved. The last one to put out the lights was Kazakhstan.
[Not that having Kazakhstan replace Russia as UNSC veto power would really be much of an improvement....]

The other article says it did not, though I was probably incorrect. Thanks.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 11:17:46 AM
There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.

(Putin:)
If someday it may happen that a victim must be found
I've got a little list, I've got a little list
Of society's offenders who may well be underground
And who never would be missed, they never would be missed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: The Mikado on March 03, 2014, 11:18:14 AM
There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.

(Putin:)
If someday it may happen that a victim must be found
I've got a little list, I've got a little list
Of society's offenders who may well be underground
And who never would be missed, they never would be missed.

Stop stealing my gimmick.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 03, 2014, 11:24:55 AM
Good analysis from Malcolm Fraser: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/ukraine-theres-no-way-out-unless-the-west-understands-its-past-mistakes


Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

FIFA gave the World cup to Qatar, which is 10 times worse than Russia, they won't move the Cup out of Russia...
... unless, of course, their main sponsors tell them to do so. Any statements from Nike and Coca Cola HQs so far (and anybody having an idea about their major stockholders)?

As to major mistakes of "the West": Germany has traditionally been opposed to the US' missile defence programme, as it would increase Russia's feeling of being encircled (a position on which the Schröder and all Merkel governments agreed). Poland supported the programme, being grateful for any US military installation on its territory (for understandable historical reasons). Don't know about the French and British positions in this respect. In any case, there hasn't been a common "western" position on how to deal with Russia and its security concerns - this is part of the problem.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 11:28:37 AM
There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.

(Putin:)
If someday it may happen that a victim must be found
I've got a little list, I've got a little list
Of society's offenders who may well be underground
And who never would be missed, they never would be missed.

Stop stealing my gimmick.

I knew it'll work.

Where have you been?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on March 03, 2014, 12:02:01 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 12:10:11 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on March 03, 2014, 12:12:10 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Better than Georgia, but they're not brilliant. While the Russians would take casualties, they'd still win.

The Ukrainian ambassador to the EU has said they will push for Russia to lose its World Cup place.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on March 03, 2014, 12:13:00 PM
There is some doubt about the existence of the ultimatum.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 12:20:48 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Better than Georgia, but they're not brilliant. While the Russians would take casualties, they'd still win.

The Ukrainian ambassador to the EU has said they will push for Russia to lose its World Cup place.

Oh, no doubt Russia would win but Ukraine's armed forces comprises of 130,000 troops, over 1,000 tanks, 221 planes and 17 combat vessels according to the BBC. It would lose but do some damage.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: CatoMinor on March 03, 2014, 12:24:07 PM
Oh, no doubt Russia would win but Ukraine's armed forces comprises of 130,000 troops, over 1,000 tanks, 221 planes and 17 combat vessels according to the BBC. It would lose but do some damage.

But how much of that is loyal to the Ukrainian gov't?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 12:40:26 PM
Oh, no doubt Russia would win but Ukraine's armed forces comprises of 130,000 troops, over 1,000 tanks, 221 planes and 17 combat vessels according to the BBC. It would lose but do some damage.

But how much of that is loyal to the Ukrainian gov't?

We've already know it's problematic, to put it mildly.

If the Russians won't go beyond Crimea (which is, IMO, more likely than not), we might very well look at the Czechoslovak scenario from 1968: very little to no fighting.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: User157088589849 on March 03, 2014, 12:41:06 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: JerryArkansas on March 03, 2014, 12:42:14 PM
Who thinks this could set a dangerous precedent for other countries.  


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on March 03, 2014, 12:42:24 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

Hello, Voice of Russia propaganda.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franzl on March 03, 2014, 12:43:55 PM
Who thinks this could set a dangouse precident for other counties. 

No, I don't think it will set a dangouse precident for other counties.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: User157088589849 on March 03, 2014, 12:45:41 PM
Who thinks this could set a dangouse precident for other counties. 

This ethnic russians fighting for their rights. They WANT russian troops in there part of Ukraine. They are terrified of this fascist Ukrainian government. Western Ukraine use to be part of the austria-hungarian empire, they have always hated russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: JerryArkansas on March 03, 2014, 12:46:41 PM
Who thinks this could set a dangouse precident for other counties. 

No, I don't think it will set a dangouse precident for other counties.
Sorry, I suck at spelling, and this laptop has no spell check for some reason.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 03, 2014, 12:47:28 PM
Who thinks this could set a dangouse precident for other counties. 

No, I don't think it will set a dangouse precident for other counties.

You sure? Alameda's been sabre-rattling against Marin IIRC.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on March 03, 2014, 12:48:29 PM
Who thinks this could set a dangouse precident for other counties. 

This ethnic russians fighting for their rights. They WANT russian troops in there part of Ukraine. They are terrified of this fascist Ukrainian government. Western Ukraine use to be part of the austria-hungarian empire, they have always hated russia.

Are you Bristol Palin? You sound dense like Sarah.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 12:49:48 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

If they are Russians then they should move back to Russia. Who are they to tell the Ukrainian people what to do? Ukrainian people have rallied in Kiev for a pro-European government, yes it takes the form of a (mainly) centre-right coalition, but it hardly makes them fascists as you put it. If anyone is acting like a fascist it is Mr. Putin for not respecting sovereign territory and invading for expansionist purposes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 03, 2014, 12:51:44 PM
Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

There are virtually no ethnic Russians in Lithuania, so try again.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: User157088589849 on March 03, 2014, 12:52:09 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

However, the DISPUTE is the ukrainians occupying kiev. These are from the austria-hungarian empire part of ukraine that have been bought up for generations hating russians. The media is not doing a good job at explaining this.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

This is a situation created by american money funding fascists in ukraine to remove a democratically elected leader. Its completely unacceptable and this is why putin will not stand down. He will protect the ethnic russians like britain would defend the falkland islands.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 12:52:21 PM
FTR, those divisions dates far earlier than the Habsburg Empire. At least to the moment Zaporizhia Cossacks divided into those in the West, remaining loyal to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and those in the East, that switched allegiance to the Tsar.

Man, we really did f**k up the Cossack question.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 12:53:29 PM
Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

There are virtually no ethnic Russians in Lithuania, so try again.

Over 5% of the Lithuanian population is not much, as in other post-Soviet countries, but that's hardly virtually none.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 03, 2014, 12:54:11 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

Ignorance? Last I checked Gibraltar and the Falklands were British while eastern Ukraine most certainly is not Russian.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 12:55:34 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

Ignorance? Last I checked Gibraltar and the Falklands were British while eastern Ukraine most certainly is not Russian.

I'm pretty sure the troll meant there is a substantial number of ethnic Russians there and the region is trending toward Moscow.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 03, 2014, 12:55:50 PM
Over 5% of the Lithuanian population is not much, as in other post-Soviet countries, but that's hardly virtually none.

Well, there are more Poles in LT than Russians. Arguing that Russians are causing trouble in Vilnius and that this could precipitate another intervention is like saying that Turkish protests in Germany could cause Erdogan to act.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 03, 2014, 12:57:08 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

Ignorance? Last I checked Gibraltar and the Falklands were British while eastern Ukraine most certainly is not Russian.

I'm pretty sure the troll meant there is a substantial number of ethnic Russians there and the region is trending toward Moscow.

Yes but that doesn't change the fact that the comparison makes no sense seeing as the Falklands war was a war waged by Britain to defend their own territory. This little detail separates that armed conflict from today's


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 12:57:34 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

However, the DISPUTE is the ukrainians occupying kiev. These are from the austria-hungarian empire part of ukraine that have been bought up for generations hating russians. The media is not doing a good job at explaining this.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

This is a situation created by american money funding fascists in ukraine to remove a democratically elected leader. Its completely unacceptable and this is why putin will not stand down. He will protect the ethnic russians like britain would defend the falkland islands.

What a load of old tosh. You speak for all Ukrainians that they view Russians as their brothers and sisters? HA! I would challenge you to say that to Crimean Tatar or the family of one of those shot on Kiev for demonstrating against closer ties to Russia.

It's nothing like the Falklands or Gibraltar because they are British Overseas Territories. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, Russia doesn't own it as much as they don't own Latvia or Lithuania. To argue against this would be stupid.

Ethnic Russians can go move to Russia if they are so loved by Mr. Putin. I hardly think a nation wanting to join the EU will be implementing harsh policies against that section of the populace if they actually want to gain accession.

I've never heard so much rubbish in my life, well except from people like Peter Hitchens.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 01:01:26 PM
I'm not particularly crazy about manipulating with existing European borders.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: User157088589849 on March 03, 2014, 01:04:26 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

If they are Russians then they should move back to Russia. Who are they to tell the Ukrainian people what to do? Ukrainian people have rallied in Kiev for a pro-European government, yes it takes the form of a (mainly) centre-right coalition, but it hardly makes them fascists as you put it. If anyone is acting like a fascist it is Mr. Putin for not respecting sovereign territory and invading for expansionist purposes.

You have no understanding of russia or its former states. The bigotry towards ethnic russians has been going on since 1991.

Donetsk Kharkiv are completely different to Lviv and Kiev. Donetsk and Kharkiv view russians and ukrainians as brothers and sisters. They speak the same language, religion and celebrate the same customs. Lviv and Kiev dont. Lviv is a former state of the austrian-hungarian empire. The have hated russians for generations.

Look at a map of europe before ww1 and see that ukraine is a mixture of empires and this is why there are massive cultural differences.

You cant tell the people of Donetsk and Kharkiv that they are ukrainian when the majority live in total fear.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: User157088589849 on March 03, 2014, 01:09:44 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

However, the DISPUTE is the ukrainians occupying kiev. These are from the austria-hungarian empire part of ukraine that have been bought up for generations hating russians. The media is not doing a good job at explaining this.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

This is a situation created by american money funding fascists in ukraine to remove a democratically elected leader. Its completely unacceptable and this is why putin will not stand down. He will protect the ethnic russians like britain would defend the falkland islands.

What a load of old tosh. You speak for all Ukrainians that they view Russians as their brothers and sisters? HA! I would challenge you to say that to Crimean Tatar or the family of one of those shot on Kiev for demonstrating against closer ties to Russia.

It's nothing like the Falklands or Gibraltar because they are British Overseas Territories. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, Russia doesn't own it as much as they don't own Latvia or Lithuania. To argue against this would be stupid.

Ethnic Russians can go move to Russia if they are so loved by Mr. Putin. I hardly think a nation wanting to join the EU will be implementing harsh policies against that section of the populace if they actually want to gain accession.

I've never heard so much rubbish in my life, well except from people like Peter Hitchens.

I have lived in Riga for 6 months and Kharkiv for 2 years.

My partner is Latvian. She was in 1981 in the former ussr. Her father was born in Ukraine and her mother was born in Georgia. They have lived in Riga since 1979. They are russian speakers.

In 2008, they recieved a letter from the latvia home office. They were told by the home office that unless they spoke Latvian they would have there pension stopped. They were told to go on latvian speaking courses. They were both denied latvian passports. These are two people in there 60s.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 01:12:08 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

If they are Russians then they should move back to Russia. Who are they to tell the Ukrainian people what to do? Ukrainian people have rallied in Kiev for a pro-European government, yes it takes the form of a (mainly) centre-right coalition, but it hardly makes them fascists as you put it. If anyone is acting like a fascist it is Mr. Putin for not respecting sovereign territory and invading for expansionist purposes.

You have no understanding of russia or its former states. The bigotry towards ethnic russians has been going on since 1991.

Donetsk Kharkiv are completely different to Lviv and Kiev. Donetsk and Kharkiv view russians and ukrainians as brothers and sisters. They speak the same language, religion and celebrate the same customs. Lviv and Kiev dont. Lviv is a former state of the austrian-hungarian empire. The have hated russians for generations.

Look at a map of europe before ww1 and see that ukraine is a mixture of empires and this is why there are massive cultural differences.

You cant tell the people of Donetsk and Kharkiv that they are ukrainian when the majority live in total fear.



Your sounding a lot like Milosevic. "Ethnic Russians", historical disputes etc. etc. I hardly think the people of Donetsk are living in fear, their city has received significant investment over the last decade, look at their football team for example.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: User157088589849 on March 03, 2014, 01:12:39 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

However, the DISPUTE is the ukrainians occupying kiev. These are from the austria-hungarian empire part of ukraine that have been bought up for generations hating russians. The media is not doing a good job at explaining this.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

This is a situation created by american money funding fascists in ukraine to remove a democratically elected leader. Its completely unacceptable and this is why putin will not stand down. He will protect the ethnic russians like britain would defend the falkland islands.

What a load of old tosh. You speak for all Ukrainians that they view Russians as their brothers and sisters? HA! I would challenge you to say that to Crimean Tatar or the family of one of those shot on Kiev for demonstrating against closer ties to Russia.

It's nothing like the Falklands or Gibraltar because they are British Overseas Territories. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, Russia doesn't own it as much as they don't own Latvia or Lithuania. To argue against this would be stupid.

Ethnic Russians can go move to Russia if they are so loved by Mr. Putin. I hardly think a nation wanting to join the EU will be implementing harsh policies against that section of the populace if they actually want to gain accession.

I've never heard so much rubbish in my life, well except from people like Peter Hitchens.

Get your passport go to donetsk, kharkiv and crimea and ask for yourself what these people want.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Storebought on March 03, 2014, 01:13:57 PM
This discussion reflects what Merkel meant when she said that Putin was speaking from a different perception of the world. A delusional one...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 01:17:44 PM
I think there is alot of ignorance on here. Ukrainians and Russians view each other as brothers and sisters. They both dont want to fight, they both dont want to shoot bullets at each other.

However, the DISPUTE is the ukrainians occupying kiev. These are from the austria-hungarian empire part of ukraine that have been bought up for generations hating russians. The media is not doing a good job at explaining this.

Donetsk, Kharkiv and Crimea want russian troops in  the country. Its like the falkland islands, gibraltor for the British. If the russians went back, the ethnic russians would feel terrified.

This is a situation created by american money funding fascists in ukraine to remove a democratically elected leader. Its completely unacceptable and this is why putin will not stand down. He will protect the ethnic russians like britain would defend the falkland islands.

What a load of old tosh. You speak for all Ukrainians that they view Russians as their brothers and sisters? HA! I would challenge you to say that to Crimean Tatar or the family of one of those shot on Kiev for demonstrating against closer ties to Russia.

It's nothing like the Falklands or Gibraltar because they are British Overseas Territories. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, Russia doesn't own it as much as they don't own Latvia or Lithuania. To argue against this would be stupid.

Ethnic Russians can go move to Russia if they are so loved by Mr. Putin. I hardly think a nation wanting to join the EU will be implementing harsh policies against that section of the populace if they actually want to gain accession.

I've never heard so much rubbish in my life, well except from people like Peter Hitchens.

Get your passport go to donetsk, kharkiv and crimea and ask for yourselves what these people want.

You're going off on a complete tangent where your argument is based on emotion (which cannot be verified) and isolated incidences in other countries. And quite frankly it depends what person you ask in those regions, I think the majority would just want peace and those that do not would have significantly differing views e.g. the ethnic Russians and Crimean Tatars in Crimea. Stop basing your argument on historical disputes and personal experiences and start realizing that this issue is much bigger. It's an issue of the respect of sovereignty and the invasion of a nation by an external power.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: User157088589849 on March 03, 2014, 01:18:41 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

If they are Russians then they should move back to Russia. Who are they to tell the Ukrainian people what to do? Ukrainian people have rallied in Kiev for a pro-European government, yes it takes the form of a (mainly) centre-right coalition, but it hardly makes them fascists as you put it. If anyone is acting like a fascist it is Mr. Putin for not respecting sovereign territory and invading for expansionist purposes.

You have no understanding of russia or its former states. The bigotry towards ethnic russians has been going on since 1991.

Donetsk Kharkiv are completely different to Lviv and Kiev. Donetsk and Kharkiv view russians and ukrainians as brothers and sisters. They speak the same language, religion and celebrate the same customs. Lviv and Kiev dont. Lviv is a former state of the austrian-hungarian empire. The have hated russians for generations.

Look at a map of europe before ww1 and see that ukraine is a mixture of empires and this is why there are massive cultural differences.

You cant tell the people of Donetsk and Kharkiv that they are ukrainian when the majority live in total fear.



Your sounding a lot like Milosevic. "Ethnic Russians", historical disputes etc. etc. I hardly think the people of Donetsk are living in fear, their city has received significant investment over the last decade, look at their football team for example.

your telling people of crimea, kharkiv and donestsk that they have to live with these thugs in kiev who hate russians.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 03, 2014, 01:20:43 PM
For all the map fantasists, I repeat my challenge of earlier:

()

This is 1913. Draw a series of 'rational' ethnic boundaries. While keeping in mind that these majorities in many places were frequently waver thin... (and that cities were frequently inhabited by very different ethnic groups to the surrounding countryside... and also in many cases had large Jewish populations...).

Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 03, 2014, 01:21:09 PM
So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

If they are Russians then they should move back to Russia. Who are they to tell the Ukrainian people what to do? Ukrainian people have rallied in Kiev for a pro-European government, yes it takes the form of a (mainly) centre-right coalition, but it hardly makes them fascists as you put it. If anyone is acting like a fascist it is Mr. Putin for not respecting sovereign territory and invading for expansionist purposes.

You have no understanding of russia or its former states. The bigotry towards ethnic russians has been going on since 1991.

Donetsk Kharkiv are completely different to Lviv and Kiev. Donetsk and Kharkiv view russians and ukrainians as brothers and sisters. They speak the same language, religion and celebrate the same customs. Lviv and Kiev dont. Lviv is a former state of the austrian-hungarian empire. The have hated russians for generations.

Look at a map of europe before ww1 and see that ukraine is a mixture of empires and this is why there are massive cultural differences.

You cant tell the people of Donetsk and Kharkiv that they are ukrainian when the majority live in total fear.



Your sounding a lot like Milosevic. "Ethnic Russians", historical disputes etc. etc. I hardly think the people of Donetsk are living in fear, their city has received significant investment over the last decade, look at their football team for example.

your telling people of crimea, kharkiv and donestsk that they have to live with these thugs in kiev who hate russians.



Last I checked those places were in Ukraine, if they love Russia so much why don't they move there? If they are so scared why don't they move?!?! Your argument is baseless and reminiscent of those Milosevic put forward on the Kosovo crisis.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 01:23:48 PM
Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.

Just 2 for me. For now.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 03, 2014, 01:25:43 PM
Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.

Just 2 for me. For now.

Well tbf I'd be meaning to put Snowstalker on it for ages but I was lazy until I saw his sage attempts here...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 01:27:07 PM
Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.

Just 2 for me. For now.

Well tbf I'd be meaning to put Snowstalker on it for ages but I was lazy until I saw his sage attempts here...

And that's how Snowstalker became an un-person for us.

At least I did something productive today.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 03, 2014, 01:34:47 PM
Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?
Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

Quote
By a vote of the General Assembly, it was stripped from the Republic of China to give it to the People's Republic of China over the objections of the former and of the US.  The UN Charter still lists the USSR and not Russia as the veto power, so the 1971 precedent could be used to give the USSR veto to another former Soviet republic, not that I think that would happen.  Maybe an outside chance the GA would vote that the veto needs to be collectively agreed upon by the former Soviet republics, but even that is far-fetched.

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

I know that's unlikely, but what wouldn't it be simply a threat made by the USA?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 01:39:13 PM
UK isn't closing financial centres to Russians or curbing trade with them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 03, 2014, 01:40:40 PM
http://swampland.time.com/2014/03/03/u-s-to-boycott-sochi-paralympics-in-protest-over-ukraine-incursion (http://swampland.time.com/2014/03/03/u-s-to-boycott-sochi-paralympics-in-protest-over-ukraine-incursion)

In what might be the most misleading TIME headline ever, the U.S has decided to partially boycott the Winter Paralympics, which like their more watched brethren, are in Sochi, Russia. This apparently doesn't mean that athletes aren't being barred, just there is Presidential delegation attending... In other words, probably the weakest possible move from President Obama.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 03, 2014, 01:41:10 PM
We should certainly use this crisis as an excuse to seize the property of oligarchs in London.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 03, 2014, 01:42:25 PM
And what's up for Timochenko? I guess she will run for president?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 01:50:38 PM
We should certainly use this crisis as an excuse to seize the property of oligarchs in London.

That would be far more effective tool than talking nonsense as blocking Kaliningrad or setting up NATO bases on the Russian borders.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 03, 2014, 01:56:33 PM
It would also help to (start to) solve the housing crisis in London, much of which is caused by people such as those using the city as a fycking monopoly board.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 03, 2014, 01:59:47 PM
I have lived in Riga for 6 months and Kharkiv for 2 years.

My partner is Latvian. She was in 1981 in the former ussr. Her father was born in Ukraine and her mother was born in Georgia. They have lived in Riga since 1979. They are russian speakers.

In 2008, they recieved a letter from the latvia home office. They were told by the home office that unless they spoke Latvian they would have there pension stopped. They were told to go on latvian speaking courses. They were both denied latvian passports. These are two people in there 60s.
Protection of the rights of ethno-linguistic minorities in Latvia could definitely be a lot better. The EU is regularly putting out comments, but they tend to go rather un-regarded and un-enforced:
http://www.coe.int/t/dghl/monitoring/minorities/3_FCNMdocs/PDF_2nd_OP_Latvia_en.pdf

I guess if your parents-in-law had went before the European Court, they would have won the case, but, as you said, two people in their 60s, and probably not fluent in any of the EU's official languages..
In any case, this is another example where "the West" (in this case the EU) hasn't been too good in dealing with legitimate  Russian interests.

your telling people of crimea, kharkiv and donestsk that they have to live with these thugs in kiev who hate russians.
The last things I have heard was some 20 bn USD getting missed from the Ukrainian budget, while the twenty bank accounts of Yanukovich, family & friends that have been frozen in Switzerland and Austria contain some 7 bn USD, the origin of which isn't fully accounted for.

Thugs in Kiev - of course! But the fact that Yanukovich hates Russians is new to me - could you explain this in a little more detail? Also,  why should Klitschko, himself a Russian-speaker with limited command of Ukrainian, hate Russians?  


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on March 03, 2014, 02:10:41 PM
Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 02:15:18 PM
Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.

All of Ukraine? I'm still far from being convinced.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 03, 2014, 02:33:58 PM
Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.

All of Ukraine? I'm still far from being convinced.
Considering that Kerry is expected to be in Kiev tomorrow, the timing indeed looks a bit weird.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 02:43:39 PM
Turkey: we won't let this become a TUR-RU issue. (http://www.todayszaman.com/news-341063-fm-davutoglu-rules-out-turkish-russian-crisis-over-crimea.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mopsus on March 03, 2014, 03:27:02 PM
For all the map fantasists, I repeat my challenge of earlier:

This is 1913. Draw a series of 'rational' ethnic boundaries. While keeping in mind that these majorities in many places were frequently waver thin... (and that cities were frequently inhabited by very different ethnic groups to the surrounding countryside... and also in many cases had large Jewish populations...).

Done:

()

G = Germany
H = Hungary
C = Croatia
R = Romania
I = Italy
S = Serbia
U = Reichskommissariat Ukraine


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 03:56:13 PM
Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.

What? Did I miss a joke?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 03, 2014, 03:59:53 PM
Somehow I doubt that the point of Gully's proposed exercise is to be taken so literally. The map is not the territory ought to be this forum's mantra.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 03, 2014, 04:00:19 PM
For all the map fantasists, I repeat my challenge of earlier:

()

This is 1913. Draw a series of 'rational' ethnic boundaries. While keeping in mind that these majorities in many places were frequently waver thin... (and that cities were frequently inhabited by very different ethnic groups to the surrounding countryside... and also in many cases had large Jewish populations...).

Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.
The answer is to give Transleithania to the Turks and Cisleithania to the Germans. I'm sure the Slavs and Hungarians will be very understanding.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 03, 2014, 04:04:13 PM
2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 04:09:30 PM
Russian UN Ambassador says that Yanukovych has written to Putin asking him to use military force in Ukraine. Could be disinformatsiya, but puppets are puppets.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: retromike22 on March 03, 2014, 04:10:39 PM
2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 03, 2014, 04:13:15 PM
2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.
Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mopsus on March 03, 2014, 04:16:40 PM
In case it's being interpreted as an actual attempt to divide the territory of Austro-Hungarian Empire... my map is an approximation of the Nazi division of that region during World War II. 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 03, 2014, 04:22:00 PM
In case it's being interpreted as an actual attempt to divide the territory of Austro-Hungarian Empire... my map is an approximation of the Nazi division of that region during World War II. 

Ah I was wondering that. Should have spotted it. Either way, Nix's point still stands.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 04:23:35 PM
2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine.

I was thinking the same....an Ukraine without Crimea will put an end to the balance of power between the two political groups.

Anyway, after an event like that, probably all the political system will be changed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 04:23:55 PM
I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

Remember the old joke about the 1968 events in Prague? They used to say that after the invasion, the Polish government prohibited swimming in the Bug river: what if somebody starts drowning, calls for help and is heard by the Russians?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 03, 2014, 04:24:12 PM
2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.
Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!
But isn’t guaranteed access to a warm water port in the Black Sea more crucial than keeping the Ukraine as a puppet state? The Ukraine has shown itself to be vulnerable even with the Crimea. They are gambling Crimea’s strategic value on what has been proven time and time again to be a weak hold on Ukrainian affairs.

My apologies for asking rather simple questions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 04:26:18 PM

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

And, most definitely in Anchorage. Alaska was and will be Russian, of course.

Stop talking bullsh**t.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 04:27:21 PM
2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.
Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!

Not all Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 04:31:32 PM
To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 04:32:35 PM
To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

Source?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 04:34:22 PM
I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

That's your indicator the WWIII is coming?

Quote
Remember the old joke about the 1968 events in Prague? They used to say that after the invasion, the Polish government prohibited swimming in the Bug river: what if somebody starts drowning, calls for help and is heard by the Russians?

I also remember invasion on Czechoslovakia caused a global war. Oh wait.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 03, 2014, 04:46:18 PM
2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.
Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!

Not all Ukraine.
Maybe not all Ukraine, but the Party of Region would probably struggle.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cassius on March 03, 2014, 05:26:21 PM
That Ukrainian admiral who defected to the Russians apparently tried to persuade some more of the Ukrainian navy to defect. But instead, a number of them struck up with their national anthem. It was a rather moving sight I must say.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: retromike22 on March 03, 2014, 05:33:15 PM
Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on March 03, 2014, 05:34:59 PM
Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 05:40:24 PM
 BBC 22:25:

Poland has invoked Article 4 of Nato's founding treaty, under which consultations can be requested when an ally feels their security is threatened. Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski has said that while the Ukraine crisis is not a direct threat to Poland and that the country is safe, Poland wants to enlist Nato as a tool to work for stabilisation in Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 06:17:50 PM
Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

Except that in this case this is pretty much a description.

US has treaty obligations here. Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops), or US treaty obligations are not worth the paper they are written on. If US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan might as well negotiate decent terms of joining China.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 06:19:21 PM
To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

Source?

http://www.profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/novosti-sng/ukraine/entry1008201702.html

Polled between Feb 8 and Feb 18


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 06:22:13 PM
Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

Except that in this case this is pretty much a description.

US has treaty obligations here. Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops), or US treaty obligations are not worth the paper they are written on. If US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan might as well negotiate decent terms of joining China.

Ukraine is not Japan. Where's an analogy?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: muon2 on March 03, 2014, 06:25:31 PM
The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 06:30:38 PM
The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

Hm, in the event of Crimea becoming a part of Russia I assume they would want a Republic status. Would be unusual, given native Russian population dominating here, as Republic status is pretty much reserved for ethnic regions (like Tatarstan, Chechnya, etc.)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 03, 2014, 06:52:51 PM
I checked, the United States gave no military guarantees to Ukraine whatsoever. Budapest Manifesto? The Manifesto does not carry military obligations. It does carry diplomatic ones and the U.S., as well as the EU states, are engaged in diplomacy.

Ag was referring to Japan and South Korea. There's no comparison, as there are clear military treaties in place.

Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops)

Now this is troubling. Not only you're preaching doom, you seem to look forward this eagerly. Bravo, a war of nuclear powers is surely going to help Ukraine and the rest of us.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Angel of Death on March 03, 2014, 08:01:10 PM
Live BBC page (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26428296)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 03, 2014, 08:03:23 PM
I checked, the United States gave no military guarantees to Ukraine whatsoever. Budapest Manifesto? The Manifesto does not carry military obligations. It does carry diplomatic ones and the U.S., as well as the EU states, are engaged in diplomacy.

Ag was referring to Japan and South Korea. There's no comparison, as there are clear military treaties in place.

Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops)

Now this is troubling. Not only you're preaching doom, you seem to look forward this eagerly. Bravo, a war of nuclear powers is surely going to help Ukraine and the rest of us.

I've learned recently that ag is a very disturbed person.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on March 03, 2014, 08:04:38 PM
To no one's surprise, Russia has China's backing (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-crisis-china-back-russia-cold-war-over-crimea-1438650) in its face-down with the West over Ukraine.

Perhaps China has similar designs on its neighbors as it seeks to reclaim the boundaries once held by the Qing Dynasty at its territorial zenith:

()

Possibly a price for its support? 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 03, 2014, 08:11:31 PM
To no one's surprise, Russia has China's backing (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-crisis-china-back-russia-cold-war-over-crimea-1438650) in its face-down with the West over Ukraine.

Perhaps China has similar designs on its neighbors as it seeks to reclaim the boundaries once held by the Qing Dynasty at its territorial zenith:

()

Hmm.... all that territory is in former Soviet or Soviet-allied states (except for Taiwan obviously, oh, and a small very likely to be completely uninhabited bit of India/Pakistan).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 03, 2014, 10:01:35 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/russias-hand-can-be-seen-in-the-protests.html?_r=0

Quote
But some of the people here calling for Russian intervention are themselves Russian — “protest tourists” from across the border.

They have included passport-carrying Russians, like Aleksey Khudyakov, a pro-Kremlin Muscovite who said he traveled here “to watch and maybe to give some advice.” In Kharkiv, another Russian scaled a government building to dramatically plant his country’s flag — offering at least the image that President Vladimir V. Putin’s forces were being invited in.
.
.
.
As a wave of pro-Russia demonstrations in 11 cities has suddenly erupted where significant populations of ethnic Russians live, the apparent organization of the demonstrators, appearances of Russian citizens and reports of busloads of activists arriving from Russia itself suggest a high degree of coordination with Moscow. At a minimum, Russians are instigating protests by Ukrainians sympathetic to Moscow, helping to create a pretext for a broader intervention if Mr. Putin decides to push things that far.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Blue3 on March 03, 2014, 10:07:47 PM
Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

Except that in this case this is pretty much a description.

US has treaty obligations here. Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops), or US treaty obligations are not worth the paper they are written on. If US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan might as well negotiate decent terms of joining China.
Some ridiculous percentage of treaties are ignored, when the time to enforce them occurs.

Also, didn't we also have some treaty with Georgia?

The only treaty that really matters to the United States is NATO. That's all.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Comrade Funk on March 03, 2014, 10:17:25 PM
Pressure Putin by destroying the Ruble. Of course, we need the Europeans to join in with sanctions of their own. Hopefully the rumors of a divide in NATO/EU are untrue.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 10:20:14 PM
The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

Nobody is offering the last two: independence means being part of Russia, and "autonomy" in Russia means having a local guy designated to lick Putin's balls on special occasions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 10:23:30 PM
The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

Hm, in the event of Crimea becoming a part of Russia I assume they would want a Republic status. Would be unusual, given native Russian population dominating here, as Republic status is pretty much reserved for ethnic regions (like Tatarstan, Chechnya, etc.)

Some of the Republics have only small native minorities: think Karelia. Tartars and Ukrainians would be sufficient here. But that status means very little these days.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 10:25:06 PM
I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

That's your indicator the WWIII is coming?

Quote
Remember the old joke about the 1968 events in Prague? They used to say that after the invasion, the Polish government prohibited swimming in the Bug river: what if somebody starts drowning, calls for help and is heard by the Russians?

I also remember invasion on Czechoslovakia caused a global war. Oh wait.

In 1938 it was the precursor.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 10:26:37 PM
Russian UN Ambassador says that Yanukovych has written to Putin asking him to use military force in Ukraine. Could be disinformatsiya, but puppets are puppets.

The latest rumor is that, having conveniently produced the letter, Yanukovich died.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 10:35:43 PM
It is pretty clear that Ukraine will not be defended. They will find some "compromise", that will attempt to give Russia full control, without giving it that name. The Protectorate of Lesser and New Russia will seem like a minor price to pay to avoid the war. Russia will be slightly slapped by sanctions, which will only help Putin establish and maintain the isolation he desires. For a few months everybody will congratulate each other that they preserved peace. Then Putin will ask for seconds. And thirds. And more. I wonder, if Kalwejt wakes up before or after Gdansk?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 03, 2014, 10:37:10 PM
Seek a mental health professional.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 10:42:18 PM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 03, 2014, 10:47:53 PM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 10:49:08 PM
It is pretty clear that Ukraine will not be defended. They will find some "compromise", that will attempt to give Russia full control, without giving it that name.

You forget that there are quite a few people that don't want to be a Russian puppy.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 03, 2014, 10:55:13 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has put trade and investment talks with Russia on hold as a rebuke for Russia's incursion into Ukraine, a United States official said on Monday.

"We have suspended upcoming bilateral trade and investment engagement with the government of Russia that were part of a move toward deeper commercial and trade ties," a spokesman for the Office of the US Trade Representative said.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 11:03:27 PM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Hitler never invaded the US, btw. Poland and Czecoslovakia did not get their German minorities by accdent either.

Unlike you I merely understand what is Putin. I know the type. It IS scary.

Un


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 11:04:23 PM
It is pretty clear that Ukraine will not be defended. They will find some "compromise", that will attempt to give Russia full control, without giving it that name.

You forget that there are quite a few people that don't want to be a Russian puppy.



Were there any fewer in Czechoslovakia?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 11:08:02 PM
Russian media outlet with unconfirmed report of what ag said earlier: Yanukovych dead of a heart attack in Rostov. TIME's Shuster reports Ukrainians are telling him Russian APCs are SAM-equipped.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 11:08:30 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has put trade and investment talks with Russia on hold as a rebuke for Russia's incursion into Ukraine, a United States official said on Monday.

"We have suspended upcoming bilateral trade and investment engagement with the government of Russia that were part of a move toward deeper commercial and trade ties," a spokesman for the Office of the US Trade Representative said.


We also threw out Putin's Teddy bear.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on March 03, 2014, 11:08:39 PM
Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 11:10:58 PM
Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

The Germans don't want Russia expelled from the G7+1, so I highly doubt WTO would be on anyone's list. Merkel and (unintentionally) Cameron have already made it clear the toughest economic options are out.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on March 03, 2014, 11:13:56 PM
Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

The Germans don't want Russia expelled from the G7+1, so I highly doubt WTO would be on anyone's list. Merkel and (unintentionally) Cameron have already made it clear the toughest economic options are out.

Then it's no wonder Putin is being so bold -for all of President Obama's rhetorical toughness, it is clear Putin won't suffer any real consequences for his aggression. 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 11:16:09 PM
Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

Would be much easier to remove restrictions on oil exports from the US. Will have a lot more effect.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 11:22:13 PM
Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

Would be much easier to remove restrictions on oil exports from the US. Will have a lot more effect.

Plus natural gas, but that would mean a different US energy policy.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 11:23:21 PM
Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

Would be much easier to remove restrictions on oil exports from the US. Will have a lot more effect.

Plus natural gas, but that would mean a different US energy policy.

And, of course, even that is too big a price to pay for saving the world.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 03, 2014, 11:29:10 PM
Re UK econ sanctions: Cameron doesn't want to drain the City of Russian money.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 03, 2014, 11:33:18 PM
Re UK econ sanctions: Cameron doesn't want to drain the City of Russian money.

Then just arrest it :)

alas...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 03, 2014, 11:49:22 PM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 03, 2014, 11:54:22 PM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 03, 2014, 11:57:24 PM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Hitler never invaded the US, btw. Poland and Czecoslovakia did not get their German minorities by accdent either.

Unlike you I merely understand what is Putin. I know the type. It IS scary.

Un

The United States didn't fight Hitler in the Pacific either.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 04, 2014, 12:10:12 AM
So this Yanukovych dead thing isn't just a crazy rumor being tossed around and more like a unsubstantiated rumor being given attention by some serious outlets? Because that's just bizarre especially that such a thing would be tried by the Russians being so blatant (has he had any prior health problems?)

In all fairness though it's not too clear what Putin and the Russians would gain by having him dead. He seems like the type who it'd be best to just shuffle away to some villa on the Black Sea for a quiet low key retirement and becoming a non-issue.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:14:21 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Hitler never invaded the US, btw. Poland and Czecoslovakia did not get their German minorities by accdent either.

Unlike you I merely understand what is Putin. I know the type. It IS scary.

Un

The United States didn't fight Hitler in the Pacific either.

Yep, it fought him in France and in Germany.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:20:08 AM
So this Yanukovych dead thing isn't just a crazy rumor being tossed around and more like a unsubstantiated rumor being given attention by some serious outlets? Because that's just bizarre especially that such a thing would be tried by the Russians being so blatant (has he had any prior health problems?)

In all fairness though it's not too clear what Putin and the Russians would gain by having him dead. He seems like the type who it'd be best to just shuffle away to some villa on the Black Sea for a quiet low key retirement and becoming a non-issue.

It seems he was not willing to issue a call to arms. That press conference in Rostov was bizarre: he was talking too much nonsense even by his own standards (hell, having been a president of Ukraine for so many years, he literally confused Russia and Ukraine, said something like "Ukraine has been our key partner").  Still, he explicitly said he does NOT want Russian troops there.

Nobody sees him afterwards. The next day there is a written statement saying he wants Russian troops in Crimea. Then today there is another one, saying he wants a Russian invasion. And then he seems to be dead.

You know the old story about the mummy they found in Egypt? They could not figure out, to whom it belonged, so they invited Russian specialists. These ordered everybody to get out of the room, so they could stay alone with the mummy. For a while there were yells and screams, then the Russians get out, wiping the sweat of their brows, and say: "It is Amehnotep XXVI". "How did you figure it out?" " The son of a bitch fessed up".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:21:41 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 04, 2014, 12:26:12 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.



As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:31:44 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.

You did not. But your government did, and your Congress ratified.

In any case, if you do not want to be held accountable, then do not be surprised if within the next 10 years pretty much everybody has a nuke of their own (states and non-state groups included). In the case of Ukraine, they should be able to produce one within a couple of years (they have power stations, from which they can extract plutonium, and have more than enough scientists and engineers who know how to do it).  They, of course, would not use it against the US (they would much prefer to explode it on the Red Square). But there will be a few dozen groups that will.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:33:15 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.



As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 04, 2014, 12:39:07 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.



As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

Again, you put out this vague warning but do not point out any plausible places that would be next on Russia's list.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 04, 2014, 12:41:25 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.

You did not. But your government did, and your Congress ratified.

In any case, if you do not want to be held accountable, then do not be surprised if within the next 10 years pretty much everybody has a nuke of their own (states and non-state groups included). In the case of Ukraine, they should be able to produce one within a couple of years (they have power stations, from which they can extract plutonium, and have more than enough scientists and engineers who know how to do it).  They, of course, would not use it against the US (they would much prefer to explode it on the Red Square). But there will be a few dozen groups that will.

Any third-world dictator who hasn't gotten that memo after our attacks on Libya and Iraq (which gave up their weapons programs) and capitulation to North Korea's demands is either not smart enough to get the message again or lacks the means to do so.

And besides, I would think that the United States' support for toppling the Syrian government would be a much greater risk for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction among groups without an instinct for self-preservation than any nonintervention in Eastern Europe.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MalaspinaGold on March 04, 2014, 01:02:47 AM
Russian media outlet with unconfirmed report of what ag said earlier: Yanukovych dead of a heart attack in Rostov. TIME's Shuster reports Ukrainians are telling him Russian APCs are SAM-equipped.
Rogue: could you link us to the Russian article about Yanukovych's death?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: King on March 04, 2014, 01:22:00 AM
The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

An "independent" state of Crimea would be such a puppet joke, it shouldn't be considered.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 04, 2014, 01:33:00 AM
I have to partially agree with ag: if Russia takes only the Crimea then you will have a near perminantly pro-western rump Ukraine. The only logical explaination for what we must assume is a logical power is to attempt to completely dominate Ukraine.
The question is if we should intervene in it. While every sensible person wants to uphold Budapest and economically sancion Russia, I am personally not willing to risk World War III for a faraway backwater like the Ukraine. This may be one of those times where the good guys have to take a dive to avoid worse consequences.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 04, 2014, 05:22:35 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has put trade and investment talks with Russia on hold as a rebuke for Russia's incursion into Ukraine, a United States official said on Monday.

"We have suspended upcoming bilateral trade and investment engagement with the government of Russia that were part of a move toward deeper commercial and trade ties," a spokesman for the Office of the US Trade Representative said.
Very effective. If we don't dare to use the stick, let's throw away the carrot as well...

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

Again, you put out this vague warning but do not point out any plausible places that would be next on Russia's list.
How about protecting innocent orthodox Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh from continuing Azeri aggression? Ties well into alleged Russian support to Lezgian separatism (a Caucasian ethnic living close to the Russian border), and would of course be completely unrelated to oil and gas exploration in the Caspian Sea... 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 04, 2014, 05:39:14 AM
Armenians are not orthodox, they have their own apostolic Church, and things have been relatively quiet in Nagorno-Karabagh recently actually (I've stayed there a few years ago), but I see your point. Plenty of other examples can be thought of.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 04, 2014, 05:47:40 AM
Russia Today anchor Abby Martin condemns Russian invasion of Crimea - on air:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZolXrjGIBJs

Someone is about to lose her job, I guess. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 04, 2014, 06:35:12 AM
...

...

Seriously.

This is not 1938 nor 1939. I'm sick and tired of that extremely hyperbolic analogy, as I can hear it every day from my native nutjobs.

We live in the atomic age. That's why there never was a direct conflict between the West and the East. There were numerous crises, but come on, Ukraine, when compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis or Berlin standoff, is a storm in a teacup.

Russia is not going to attack NATO territory, NATO is not going to attack Russia. You may want this, but it ain't happening.

Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 04, 2014, 07:06:26 AM
Putin gave a surreal press conference today. His statements in short:

- At present, there's no need for a Russian military intervention in Ukraine. It will only be used as a last resort.

- There's currently no Russian military intervention in Crimea. Only "local self-defence forces" are active there.

- The protestors on the Maidan have legitimate grievances and Viktor Yanukovych has no political future.

- The current Ukrainian government came to power through a coup and is hence illegitimate. The Ukrainian parliament is a legitimate institution which is recognized by Russia, but the Yatsenyuk government isn't.

- Russia is and will always be friends with Ukraine. But Russia won't have relations with its current government.

- Russia is continuing preparations for the G8 Summit in Sochi, but nobody should feel forced to attend.


One could say Putin seems confused, except that he's probably acting confused on purpose.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 04, 2014, 07:29:00 AM
 An interesting french article about Ukraine. (http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2014/03/03/le-coup-de-force-de-poutine-en-crimee-s-inscrit-dans-une-volonte-de-marchandage_4376791_3214.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 08:21:58 AM
The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

An "independent" state of Crimea would be such a puppet joke, it shouldn't be considered.

In addition, "independent Crimea" would mean a million displaced persons: the local economy will simply not be able to support much more than half the current population (no water, no tourists). It only makes sense as part of a bigger project.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MasterJedi on March 04, 2014, 08:34:43 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 04, 2014, 08:41:55 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?

...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 08:43:35 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?

At least, have big troop concentrations on the LOC. Both in Georgia and in Moldova. Do not cross the lines, for the moment - do so only if Russians move into mainland Ukraine. But make sure that the Russians have to think about defending those.

I would also do the same in the Far East with the "Northern Territories": make the Japanese concentrate a lot on Hokkaido, run big war games simulating landings on some islands. Basically, make the Russians disperse troops all over the country, in expectation that they MAY be attacked.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on March 04, 2014, 08:51:17 AM
I hope, the warmongering in this thread is not representative for anyone. It would be worse than the current Russian 19th century imperialist acting that is going on.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 08:55:05 AM
I hope, the warmongering in this thread is not representative for anyone. It would be worse than the current Russian 19th century imperialist acting that is going on.

Appeasement is a lot more dangerous: if your objective is truly to avoid the war.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 04, 2014, 08:57:35 AM
Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.
Correct. But the "Heim ins Reich" rhetoric still sounds unpleasantly familiar.

At the moment, it seems Putin has been sending a clear signal to the West to stop ignoring legitimate Russian interests. The form is obviously inappropriate, and the occasion anything but well chosen. Backing up a corrupt crook like Yanukovich hasn't really been helpful to ensure Ukraine will pay their gas bill, while the military intervention may actually lead to more instead of less discrimination of Russian-speakers in Ukraine and other countries. But Putin's statements today have made me a little more optimistic that ultimately a diplomatic solution can be found.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 04, 2014, 08:59:26 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?

At least, have big troop concentrations on the LOC. Both in Georgia and in Moldova. Do not cross the lines, for the moment - do so only if Russians move into mainland Ukraine. But make sure that the Russians have to think about defending those.

I would also do the same in the Far East with the "Northern Territories": make the Japanese concentrate a lot on Hokkaido, run big war games simulating landings on some islands. Basically, make the Russians disperse troops all over the country, in expectation that they MAY be attacked.
This is not Risk. Get real.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MasterJedi on March 04, 2014, 09:01:52 AM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

Offer to just let Russia keep Crimea, most of the citizens want it and allow the ones that don't to leave in peace, but Russia shouldn't be allowed to take half the country or more, which is what they want.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:05:53 AM
Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.
Correct. But the "Heim ins Reich" rhetoric still sounds unpleasantly familiar.

At the moment, it seems Putin has been sending a clear signal to the West to stop ignoring legitimate Russian interests. The form is obviously inappropriate, and the occasion anything but well chosen. Backing up a corrupt crook like Yanukovich hasn't really been helpful to ensure Ukraine will pay their gas bill, while the military intervention may actually lead to more instead of less discrimination of Russian-speakers in Ukraine and other countries. But Putin's statements today have made me a little more optimistic that ultimately a diplomatic solution can be found.


Reread the pre-war German statements, before you become too optimistic.

And then compare your own to those of Chamberlain.

Legitimate grievances be freaked... Germany's were a lot more legitimate.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:07:27 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?

At least, have big troop concentrations on the LOC. Both in Georgia and in Moldova. Do not cross the lines, for the moment - do so only if Russians move into mainland Ukraine. But make sure that the Russians have to think about defending those.

I would also do the same in the Far East with the "Northern Territories": make the Japanese concentrate a lot on Hokkaido, run big war games simulating landings on some islands. Basically, make the Russians disperse troops all over the country, in expectation that they MAY be attacked.
This is not Risk. Get real.

I am real. I know none of this will be done. This is why I am very pessimistic about the future. I guess, I should travel more around Europe in the next few years, while it still exists.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:08:31 AM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

Offer to just let Russia keep Crimea, most of the citizens want it and allow the ones that don't to leave in peace, but Russia shouldn't be allowed to take half the country or more, which is what they want.

Today Crimea, tomorrow Berlin. Just remember that.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on March 04, 2014, 09:08:55 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?
Despite that in 2008 Georgia was the agressor and the land was not controlled by Georgian government, anyway.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: muon2 on March 04, 2014, 09:14:58 AM

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

Actually I checked and don't believe action, beyond consultation with the signatories, is mandated. Here are the terms of the Budapest Memorandum (http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances):

Quote
The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:


1.    The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2.    The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3.    The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4.    The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5.    The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

6.    The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

Only point 6 is specifically applicable here. Other actions would have to be based on the CSCE agreement or the UN charter.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:17:04 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?
Despite that in 2008 Georgia was the agressor and the land was not controlled by Georgian government, anyway.

A lot of it (half the Southern Ossetia and the Kodori gorge in Abkhazia) was Georgian populated and Georgian controlled before 2008. The inconvenient fact is that the Georgian population was half massacred and half expelled at the time (we might as well forget that before the Soviet break up there had been about 2.5 times as many Georgians as the Abkhaz in Abkhazia - they had been expelled long ago, with the help of different Russian troops).  In any case, Georgians did not do exceptionally badly: most Ossetians also had to leave from under the Russian protection: the country is not suitable for human habitation at this point. Have you seen recent reports from the area? From the Soviet 100 thousand residents of SO, or pre-2008 70 thousand, the population is now down to somewhere between 20 and 40 thousand. Abkhazia is only marginally better. And, in a warning to Crimea, it was one of the main Soviet resorts.

Anyway, no doubt, in 2020, when 1,000,000 people have been forced to leave the Russian-occupied Crimea, you will be vaguely recalling that the true aggressors were the Ukrainians.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:18:19 AM
Anyway, from now on I am on record as an enthusiastic supporter of nuclear proliferation. That is the only thing that can preserve peace at this point.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on March 04, 2014, 09:21:00 AM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

Offer to just let Russia keep Crimea, most of the citizens want it and allow the ones that don't to leave in peace, but Russia shouldn't be allowed to take half the country or more, which is what they want.

Today Crimea, tomorrow Berlin. Just remember that.
Have you ever heard of this obscure tiny organization called NATO, that Germany is a member of?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:27:06 AM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

Offer to just let Russia keep Crimea, most of the citizens want it and allow the ones that don't to leave in peace, but Russia shouldn't be allowed to take half the country or more, which is what they want.


Today Crimea, tomorrow Berlin. Just remember that.
Have you ever heard of this obscure tiny organization called NATO, that Germany is a member of?

Well, all that it means is that rather than occupied, Berlin will be nuked.

I am dead serious. You think NATO will work. NATO has never been tested. By letting Putin get away with murder this time, you make him hungry to, in fact, try it out. And even if it turns out it is serious, it will be too late by the time we find this out: nukes will be falling.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 04, 2014, 09:36:24 AM
You need help.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:37:29 AM

Well, I will not be the one nuked :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 04, 2014, 09:40:40 AM

I'm an hour and a half away from the nearest Russian target (Philadelphia) if the worst comes. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 09:45:57 AM

I'm an hour and a half away from the nearest Russian target (Philadelphia) if the worst comes. :P

Good. So you are safe as well :) Anyway, knowing your views, you, probably, wouldn't mind being the Russian gauleiter in the area :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Paleobrazilian on March 04, 2014, 09:53:09 AM

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.



As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

Again, you put out this vague warning but do not point out any plausible places that would be next on Russia's list.

Actually, there are many reasonable guesses. Georgia (strategic place, dared to defy Putin before), Belarus (well, that would be a formality I guess), Finland (feels so 1940s), Moldova ("let's protect Transnistria")...

The work of "Eurasianists", specially Aleksandr Dugin, has been hugely influential within the Russian military. And that's very, very scary.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on March 04, 2014, 09:55:53 AM
Quote
A lot of it (half the Southern Ossetia and the Kodori gorge in Abkhazia) was Georgian populated and Georgian controlled before 2008. The inconvenient fact is that the Georgian population was half massacred and half expelled at the time (we might as well forget that before the Soviet break up there had been about 2.5 times as many Georgians as the Abkhaz in Abkhazia
I am aware of the huge ethnic conflicts and cleansings throughout the Kaukasus. If we go by nationalist arguments (which is quite en vogue in this thread and at other examples like Tibet) there have not been many Georgians in Abkhazia before the end of the 19th century so this was due to later Georgization and Russification and ethnic/religious cleansing on behalf of religion. After the fall of the Russian Empire Georgian nationalists claimed and occupied these territories in 1918.have not accepted Abkhazian and Ossetian wishes for independence (neither did the Bolsheviki, of course, and Stalin's minority policies is a chapter of his own, especially in the Caucasus, in an divide et impera manner.
As ethnicity concepts and alliances have often chancged in the Kaukasus and Saakashwilli is a corrupt and diehard nationalist of its own merit the Russia is allways bad and the others are always good" dichotomy is probably not the best way to describe ethnic conflicts, there.

Quote
Anyway, no doubt, in 2020, when 1,000,000 people have been forced to leave the Russian-occupied Crimea, you will be vaguely recalling that the true aggressors were the Ukrainians.
Although the try to abolish Russian as official language was surely not the smartest move by the Rada, especially as one of the first measures, it seems clear that Russia is agressive conerning the status of Crimea. Strawman detected.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 04, 2014, 10:27:32 AM
Appeasement is a lot more dangerous: if your objective is truly to avoid the war.

There are numerous ways to put an effective pressure on Moscow. Military engagements, big war games and threatening to mess with their borders are not among these options.

Please understand that not waving with your saber =/= doing nothing. It's not so hard to comprehend. Unless, of course, you're rooting for an armed conflict. In such case you're indeed a sorry mental case.

Today Crimea, tomorrow Berlin. Just remember that.

Really, dude, what are you getting from this?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Boris on March 04, 2014, 10:49:24 AM
Ag really fucking hates Russians, lol (Russians who hate Russia tend to be interesting people, imo)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 04, 2014, 11:06:13 AM
A key difference between 1938/39 and today is that Hitler needed the war economically - there wasn't any chance of repaying the foreign debt that had been accumulated for re-armament, and was left from Versailles, without laying hand on Dutch, Belgian, French, Danish, and probably a number of other states' gold reserves.
In contrast, today, 40% of Russia's GDP, and 60% of its budget relate to trade with the West, especially the EU, and here especially oil and gas exports. While Central Europe including Germany is quite dependent on Russian energy, cutting the link would strongly affect Russia's economy and, ultimately, its military ability, and popular support to Putin's government.

While there are apparently quite a lot of people within the Russian leadership that have read the "Foundations of Geopolitics", I still haven't given up hope that many others understand the basics of (political) economics.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2014, 11:35:53 AM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 11:38:42 AM
Ag really fucking hates Russians, lol (Russians who hate Russia tend to be interesting people, imo)

I love Russians. I have most of my family there, for god´s sake. I am being offered a great job in Russia right now that I would have been severely tempted to take - it is great on all counts, except that it is in Russia. This is, in fact, the main reason I so much hate the regime that is screwing that country.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MATTROSE94 on March 04, 2014, 11:43:52 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?
I guess you want to start World War 3 then.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 11:45:45 AM
Ok. Let me set certain things straight.

Yes, I have been (deliberately) going somewhat over the top in this thread. Part of the reason, I need to vent - and better do this here, where I am, mostly, anonymous. In Russian all these days I have been a paragon of moderate reason and realism - gets very tiring after a while, believe me. Especially, when, truth be told, you are, indeed, in a state of severe panic.

There is a reason for that panic: unlike most of you, guys, I am seeing what is happening IN Russia. Ukraine is quite dear to me (most of my ancestors come from that country, and I spent a few delightful trips there), but, in the end, it is not what I know or care too much about. And, in any case, I am, actually, quite optimistic about Ukraine: if it manages to protect itself from Russia and stay, mostly, whole (with or without Crimea), it has a great future ahead. It is Russia, the country that I, really, love (believe it or not), that is looking extremely bad - and, indeed, dangerous.

There are many things that are scary there. But the main one is that the regime has been extremely successful in gradual nazification (I use the word advisedly) of the Russian society. Few of you guys, yet, realize what sort of a monster has been growing up there. This is just a first roar. It will be a lot worse, trust me.
 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 04, 2014, 11:46:53 AM
Yeah, to get back to Planet Earth for a moment... the Russian position does make sense from a Russian point of view. They feel like have been duped.

On February 21, Viktor Yanukovych signed an agreement with the leaders of Batkivshchyna, UDAR, and Svoboda as well as the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Poland that a national unity government will be formed which consists of Yanukovych's Party of Regions and the three aforementioned opposition parties. Yanukovych also agreed to hold presidential election in December of this year.

http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/671350/publicationFile/190027/140221-UKR_Erklaerung.pdf

A day later, Yanukovych is suddenly removed from office. Subsequently, a government led by Batkivshchyna and excluding the Party of Regions is installed and elections are set for May. The Russians feel like the West and the Ukranian opposition have broken the rules, so they don't feel obliged to follow the rules themselves in this matter.

That being said, the Russian position is of course not a very realistic one and stems from a state of denial. After all, Yanukovych was removed from office by a majority vote of parliament, just like the new Ukrainian government was voted in by the parliament.

The Russians are clinging - and this was confirmed by Putin's statement from today - to the fiction that the agreement from Feb. 21 is still in place and must be honoured. This leads to hilarious claims like the one that the Ukrainian parliament is recognized as a legitimate institution, while the government who was elected by the same parliament isn't.

Russia expected from all Ukrainian members of parliament to feel bound by the agreement (and to be precise, an Russian interpretation of the agreement) no matter how the situation evolves and despite the fact that only three Ukrainian MPs actually signed the agreement themselves. In essence, Putin expected the Ukrainian MPs to act like United Russia MPs in the Duma. :P

So, now we have to deal with the fact that Putin's expectations weren't met.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 11:46:56 AM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?
I guess you want to start World War 3 then.

He wants to avoid it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 11:49:10 AM
Yeah, to get back to Planet Earth for a moment... the Russian position does make sense from a Russian point of view. They feel like have been duped.

On February 21, Viktor Yanukovych signed an agreement with the leaders of Batkivshchyna, UDAR, and Svoboda as well as the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Poland that a national unity government will be formed which consists of Yanukovych's Party of Regions and the three aforementioned opposition parties. Yanukovych also agreed to hold presidential election in December of this year.

http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/671350/publicationFile/190027/140221-UKR_Erklaerung.pdf

A day later, Yanukovych is suddenly removed from office. Subsequently, a government led by Batkivshchyna and excluding the Party of Regions is installed and elections are set for May. The Russians feel like the West and the Ukranian opposition have broken the rules, so they don't feel like obliged to follow the rules themselves in this matter.

That being said, the Russian position is of course not a very realistic one and stems from a state of denial. After all, Yanukovych was removed from office by a majority vote of parliament, just like the new Ukrainian government was voted in by the parliament.

The Russians are clinging - and this was confirmed by Putin's statement from today - to the fiction that the agreement from Feb. 21 is still in place and must be honoured. This leads to hilarious claims like the one that the Ukrainian parliament is recognized as a legitimate institution, while the government who was elected by the same parliament isn't.

Russia expected from all Ukrainian members of parliament to feel bound by the agreement (and to be precise, an Russian interpretation of the agreement) no matter how the situation evolves and despite the fact that only three Ukrainian MPs actually signed the agreement themselves. In essence, Putin expected the Ukrainian MPs to act like United Russia MPs in the Duma. :P

So, now we have to deal with the fact that Putin's expectations weren't met.

You realize, Russia was never a party to that agreement. Not only Putin, when asked to send a representative, sent a nobody (literally, a nobody: a human rights ombudsman - a pathetic position on its own - whose term had finished the week before), but this representative explicitly refused to sign the agreement. It is a bit disingenuous to argue that you are upset that they are not following the agreement you opposed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Storebought on March 04, 2014, 11:50:32 AM
Given the reaction of Germany and the UK against even temporary economic sanctions against Russia, and US reluctance to follow anything Obama says, there is nothing the west will do to stop Russia from a permanent occupation of Crimea, or even a full takeover of the country.

The Obama administration should simply drop the issue. The US -- Obama and Republicans both -- are clearly not the match for Putin. Even Russia's propaganda machine is better.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 11:53:35 AM
Given the reaction of Germany and the UK against even temporary economic sanctions against Russia, and US reluctance to follow anything Obama says, there is nothing the west will do to stop Russia from a permanent occupation of Crimea, or even a full takeover of the country.

The Obama administration should simply drop the issue. The US -- Obama and Republicans both -- are clearly not the match for Putin. Even Russia's propaganda machine is better.

Well, in that case you, probably, should just give up on Europe. London will be Russian before long.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2014, 11:55:43 AM
It is already.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 04, 2014, 11:59:54 AM
You realize, Russia was never a party to that agreement. Not only Putin, when asked to send a representative, sent a nobody (literally, a nobody: a human rights ombudsman - a pathetic position on its own - whose term had finished the week before), but this representative explicitly refused to sign the agreement. It is a bit disingenuous to argue that you are upset that they are not following the agreement you opposed.

Yeah, that's because Russia wasn't really happy with the contents of the agreement to begin with. As far as Putin is concerned he would have preferred that everything remains status quo in Ukraine: Yanukovych stays in power and the opposition remains the opposition. They tolerated that this agreement came to be, but they didn't want to give the impression that they're happy about it by actually signing it.

And now they didn't even get the agreement that was just tolerable to them in the first place. Logical conclusion for Putin: Screw it, let's occupy Crimea!

Like I said, it's neither a realistic nor a preferable (for pretty much any non-Russian anyway) point of view. But that's how it is.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:04:48 PM
You realize, Russia was never a party to that agreement. Not only Putin, when asked to send a representative, sent a nobody (literally, a nobody: a human rights ombudsman - a pathetic position on its own - whose term had finished the week before), but this representative explicitly refused to sign the agreement. It is a bit disingenuous to argue that you are upset that they are not following the agreement you opposed.

Yeah, that's because Russia wasn't really happy with the contents of the agreement to begin with. As far as Putin is concerned he would have preferred that everything remains status quo in Ukraine: Yanukovych stays in power and the opposition remains the opposition. They tolerated that this agreement came to be, but they didn't want to give the impression that they're happy about it by actually signing it.

And now they didn't even get the agreement that was just tolerable to them in the first place. Logical conclusion for Putin: Screw it, let's occupy Crimea!

Like I said, it's neither a realistic nor a preferable (for pretty much any non-Russian anyway) point of view. But that's how it is.

No, it was not about the content. Putin explicitly sent as his representative a guy who was not allowed to sign anything - no matter what was there in the agreement. He wanted to keep his options entirely open. Whatever happened, he was going to find a pretext to act the way he liked.

As Lukin (Russian representative) was only flying to Kiev, the puzzled journalists asked Putin´s press officer, in which capacity was he going (everybody knew that Lukin was a nobody).  You know what was the answer? I am quoting: "in his own capacity".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 04, 2014, 12:14:14 PM
You realize, Russia was never a party to that agreement. Not only Putin, when asked to send a representative, sent a nobody (literally, a nobody: a human rights ombudsman - a pathetic position on its own - whose term had finished the week before), but this representative explicitly refused to sign the agreement. It is a bit disingenuous to argue that you are upset that they are not following the agreement you opposed.

Yeah, that's because Russia wasn't really happy with the contents of the agreement to begin with. As far as Putin is concerned he would have preferred that everything remains status quo in Ukraine: Yanukovych stays in power and the opposition remains the opposition. They tolerated that this agreement came to be, but they didn't want to give the impression that they're happy about it by actually signing it.

And now they didn't even get the agreement that was just tolerable to them in the first place. Logical conclusion for Putin: Screw it, let's occupy Crimea!

Like I said, it's neither a realistic nor a preferable (for pretty much any non-Russian anyway) point of view. But that's how it is.

No, it was not about the content. Putin explicitly sent as his representative a guy who was not allowed to sign anything - no matter what was there in the agreement. He wanted to keep his options entirely open. Whatever happened, he was going to find a pretext to act the way he liked.

As Lukin (Russian representative) was only flying to Kiev, the puzzled journalists asked Putin´s press officer, in which capacity was he going (everybody knew that Lukin was a nobody).  You know what was the answer? I am quoting: "in his own capacity".

That's guesswork.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:15:55 PM
You realize, Russia was never a party to that agreement. Not only Putin, when asked to send a representative, sent a nobody (literally, a nobody: a human rights ombudsman - a pathetic position on its own - whose term had finished the week before), but this representative explicitly refused to sign the agreement. It is a bit disingenuous to argue that you are upset that they are not following the agreement you opposed.

Yeah, that's because Russia wasn't really happy with the contents of the agreement to begin with. As far as Putin is concerned he would have preferred that everything remains status quo in Ukraine: Yanukovych stays in power and the opposition remains the opposition. They tolerated that this agreement came to be, but they didn't want to give the impression that they're happy about it by actually signing it.

And now they didn't even get the agreement that was just tolerable to them in the first place. Logical conclusion for Putin: Screw it, let's occupy Crimea!

Like I said, it's neither a realistic nor a preferable (for pretty much any non-Russian anyway) point of view. But that's how it is.

No, it was not about the content. Putin explicitly sent as his representative a guy who was not allowed to sign anything - no matter what was there in the agreement. He wanted to keep his options entirely open. Whatever happened, he was going to find a pretext to act the way he liked.

As Lukin (Russian representative) was only flying to Kiev, the puzzled journalists asked Putin´s press officer, in which capacity was he going (everybody knew that Lukin was a nobody).  You know what was the answer? I am quoting: "in his own capacity".

That's guesswork.

And Putin´s spokesman was just talking unauthorized nonsense, when he explicitly said that Lukin had no authority besides his own, yes?

It is "guesswork" a lot better grounded in facts than yours.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:17:15 PM
You realize, Russia was never a party to that agreement. Not only Putin, when asked to send a representative, sent a nobody (literally, a nobody: a human rights ombudsman - a pathetic position on its own - whose term had finished the week before), but this representative explicitly refused to sign the agreement. It is a bit disingenuous to argue that you are upset that they are not following the agreement you opposed.

Yeah, that's because Russia wasn't really happy with the contents of the agreement to begin with. As far as Putin is concerned he would have preferred that everything remains status quo in Ukraine: Yanukovych stays in power and the opposition remains the opposition. They tolerated that this agreement came to be, but they didn't want to give the impression that they're happy about it by actually signing it.

And now they didn't even get the agreement that was just tolerable to them in the first place. Logical conclusion for Putin: Screw it, let's occupy Crimea!

Like I said, it's neither a realistic nor a preferable (for pretty much any non-Russian anyway) point of view. But that's how it is.

No, it was not about the content. Putin explicitly sent as his representative a guy who was not allowed to sign anything - no matter what was there in the agreement. He wanted to keep his options entirely open. Whatever happened, he was going to find a pretext to act the way he liked.

As Lukin (Russian representative) was only flying to Kiev, the puzzled journalists asked Putin´s press officer, in which capacity was he going (everybody knew that Lukin was a nobody).  You know what was the answer? I am quoting: "in his own capacity".

That's guesswork.

And Putin´s spokesman was just talking unauthorized nonsense, when he explicitly said that Lukin had no authority besides his own, yes?

It is "guesswork" a lot better grounded in facts than yours.

Anyway, it was then that I knew that the war was extremely likely. And, unfortunately, I was right.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on March 04, 2014, 12:21:15 PM
Everybody is missing an important point.

Cameron and Merkel shouldn't be trusted, because they are so weak.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:28:21 PM
Everybody is missing an important point.

Cameron and Merkel shouldn't be trusted, because they are so weak.

Everybody knew that day before yesterday.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 04, 2014, 12:33:14 PM
Anyway, it was then that I knew that the war was extremely likely. And, unfortunately, I was right.
Wait a minute. Is there a war ?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:34:11 PM
In any case, I may be a panicked wreck, but, at least, I know my facts here. I have known who Lukin (Putin´s emissary to Kiev in February) is for over 20 years now - and I know exactly what sending him, and not anybody else, means.  I have forgotten more about Russian politics and society then most of you, guys, know. There is a reason I am freaking out.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 12:36:02 PM
Anyway, it was then that I knew that the war was extremely likely. And, unfortunately, I was right.
Wait a minute. Is there a war ?

Well, a big chunk of a country has been occupied. There has been some shooting. It is a war in my book. Though, of course, it will be worse.

You French should know more about the Drôle de guerre


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 01:05:57 PM
From the mouth of the horse leader today:

"Listen to me. Listen to me carefully. I want you to understand me exactly. If we make such a decision - only to defend Ukrainian citizens. Understand me. And let any serviceman shoot his own people. We will be standing behind them. Not in front, but behind. Let them shoot women and children. I would like to see who is going to give such an order in Ukraine"



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: afleitch on March 04, 2014, 01:17:14 PM
If ag is right, then you'll all have to eat your hats. Not because of that but because all food will be irradiated.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 04, 2014, 01:35:47 PM
If ag is right, then you'll all have to eat your hats. Not because of that but because all food will be irradiated.

And so will be the hats :) Anyways tortillas should be fine :)

Nah, we will survive :)  As I said, I am venting. There is a reason I am venting, though.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 04, 2014, 01:42:57 PM
...

...

Seriously.

This is not 1938 nor 1939. I'm sick and tired of that extremely hyperbolic analogy, as I can hear it every day from my native nutjobs.

We live in the atomic age. That's why there never was a direct conflict between the West and the East. There were numerous crises, but come on, Ukraine, when compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis or Berlin standoff, is a storm in a teacup.

Russia is not going to attack NATO territory, NATO is not going to attack Russia. You may want this, but it ain't happening.

Agree.


Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.

Disagree. Russia thinks that it has a certain influence sphere.

One part of it comes from legacy of the ultra expansionist Russian Empire (let's call it traditional: Moscow as the Third Rome, Champion of Slavic nations, protectors of the land of the Rus and Orthodox world).

Other part is pragmatic-geopolitical: control over the Caucasus, control over Central Asia (Eurasia hypothesis), necessity of warm ports like Sevastopol and Vladivostok, to not allow military powers like NATO near them, etc.

--

We don't live in 1948 or 1962, true. But we don't live in the 90s either. Unexpected things could happen.

I think that the message of Putin is that: "Inside my sphere, I will do whatever I need or whatever I want to protect my national interest".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Paleobrazilian on March 04, 2014, 02:07:04 PM
Interesting piece on Eurasianism and Aleksandr Dugin, even though the source is far from great.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/372353/eurasianist-threat-robert-zubrinnteresting piece on Eurasianism and it's main proponent, Aleksandr Dugin:



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: retromike22 on March 04, 2014, 02:18:56 PM
Russia just test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 04, 2014, 02:19:22 PM
Interesting piece on Eurasianism and Aleksandr Dugin, even though the source is far from great.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/372353/eurasianist-threat-robert-zubrinnteresting piece on Eurasianism and it's main proponent, Aleksandr Dugin:



Eurasianism (probably one of the first geopolitical thesis in International Relations theory) had a comeback in the later 90s. Even the far-right and now pro-Putin Liberal Democratic Party (I think it's called that way) supports it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 04, 2014, 02:20:21 PM
Russia just test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304)

Well, that's...


This definitely doesn't help at all.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: retromike22 on March 04, 2014, 02:27:38 PM
Russia just test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304)

Well, that's...

Does that mean we have to start practicing Duck and Cover again?: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 04, 2014, 02:35:55 PM
CNN says that it's a routine test.

Well, I don't care, it would be logical that you stop a test like that in the middle of a global crisis.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 04, 2014, 02:52:40 PM
Economic sanctions always work quite well: Red Army winning the Civil War, Weimar's Republic voting the NSDAP, 1940' Japan bombing Pearl Harbor, Castro winning legitimacy in Cuba, etc.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MasterJedi on March 04, 2014, 03:21:51 PM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 04, 2014, 03:29:02 PM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.

Or Obama, or Bush, Clinton, etc.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 04, 2014, 03:32:44 PM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.
Which is why Georgia is now a province of the Russian federation.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 04, 2014, 04:44:00 PM
CNN says that it's a routine test.

Well, I don't care, it would be logical that you stop a test like that in the middle of a global crisis.
Well, not really from Russia's point of view, don't you think ? If Putin had postponed that test during this crisis, he'd have shown a weakness. You don't show a weakness during a crisis. But anyway, I'm not alarmed even by that. Even if I'm here sitting less than a thousand miles away from the Russian border. I'm not expecting the tanks anytime soon.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: bullmoose88 on March 04, 2014, 07:59:54 PM
I think the key fact, obviously, here is that Ukraine for better or worse isn't a NATO member. (Duh, I know).  If Putin decided to use his Putin Doctrine (hey, did I just invent a term?) to justify sending the Russian army to protect Russian minorities in say, the Baltic states, that's when the proverbial inks hits the fan. (turn and burn baby)  I highly doubt that he would, but the man has surprised me before.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: King on March 04, 2014, 10:34:27 PM
I think the key fact, obviously, here is that Ukraine for better or worse isn't a NATO member. (Duh, I know).  If Putin decided to use his Putin Doctrine (hey, did I just invent a term?) to justify sending the Russian army to protect Russian minorities in say, the Baltic states, that's when the proverbial inks hits the fan. (turn and burn baby)  I highly doubt that he would, but the man has surprised me before.

It would be nice to have Ukraine in the NATO and EU sphere, but at the same time, it would also probably be a huge chore for both bodies to get a tumultuous Ukrainian government to follow through on any sort of resolutions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 04, 2014, 10:52:11 PM
Even in the best-case scenario, Ukraine is still well over a decade away from EU membership (NATO membership can be done a bit more easily)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 04, 2014, 10:54:08 PM
If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 04, 2014, 11:03:32 PM
Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?
I guess you want to start World War 3 then.

He wants to avoid it.

Quote from: Dwight Eisenhower
Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked about such a thing.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 04, 2014, 11:12:17 PM
If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.

Ukraine has significantly more problems than Bulgaria even ignoring the last couple months.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on March 05, 2014, 12:31:26 AM
Hillary Clinton channels ag. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/hillary-clinton-russia-nazi-germany-vladimir-putin-ukraine-crimea-104268.html?hp=f1)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 05, 2014, 01:01:43 AM
If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.

Ukraine has significantly more problems than Bulgaria even ignoring the last couple months.

And Bulgaria really shouldn't be in the EU yet


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Eraserhead on March 05, 2014, 04:13:02 AM
Hillary Clinton channels ag. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/hillary-clinton-russia-nazi-germany-vladimir-putin-ukraine-crimea-104268.html?hp=f1)

It would be great if she just went away.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: THE_TITAN on March 05, 2014, 07:49:24 AM
I'm half Bulgarian and for all it's issues it doesn't come close to Ukraine. Bulgaria is a tiny landmass with quite a small population, it's easily manageable, Ukraine is the exact opposite.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 05, 2014, 07:54:40 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 05, 2014, 08:16:16 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 05, 2014, 08:26:04 AM
Btw, another way to sanction Russia would be to cancel these ships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Vladivostok_%282013%29

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Sevastopol_%28Mistral_class%29


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 05, 2014, 08:42:55 AM
Hillary Clinton channels ag. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/hillary-clinton-russia-nazi-germany-vladimir-putin-ukraine-crimea-104268.html?hp=f1)

Madame secretary knows her history. And, what is more important, she knows Putin.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 05, 2014, 09:02:05 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 05, 2014, 09:17:58 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Until the US cancels restrictions on oil exports, you are, unfortunately, not in much position to talk.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Hnv1 on March 05, 2014, 09:31:20 AM
Some of you are in a complete panic over naught. The Russian military with all the huff and puff is a unable to fight a truly large conflict (and by all means war across Ukraine isn't a LIC what so ever), I worked with Russian military during my service, it has functioning parts but overall it's incapable of sustained mass conflict.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 05, 2014, 09:39:33 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Until the US cancels restrictions on oil exports, you are, unfortunately, not in much position to talk.

¿Perdón? Esa expresión sonó bastante personal xd.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: DINGO Joe on March 05, 2014, 09:42:09 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Until the US cancels restrictions on oil exports, you are, unfortunately, not in much position to talk.

Could you expound on why the US not exporting oil matters (and keep in mind it is exporting quite a bit of finished product to Europe.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 05, 2014, 09:43:30 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Well, they would certainly oppose admitting Russia to the EU as well. But this isn't the issue.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 05, 2014, 11:51:16 AM
Some of you are in a complete panic over naught. The Russian military with all the huff and puff is a unable to fight a truly large conflict (and by all means war across Ukraine isn't a LIC what so ever), I worked with Russian military during my service, it has functioning parts but overall it's incapable of sustained mass conflict.

German military wasn´t in too good shape in 1937 either.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 05, 2014, 11:52:25 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Until the US cancels restrictions on oil exports, you are, unfortunately, not in much position to talk.

¿Perdón? Esa expresión sonó bastante personal xd.

It is an established expression in English. Nothing personal - if anything, quite hackneyed. Or am I mistaken and you are not an American?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 05, 2014, 11:53:33 AM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Well, they would certainly oppose admitting Russia to the EU as well. But this isn't the issue.

Naturally, what he was talking was Bavaria being admitted into Russia :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 05, 2014, 12:02:07 PM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Until the US cancels restrictions on oil exports, you are, unfortunately, not in much position to talk.

Could you expound on why the US not exporting oil matters (and keep in mind it is exporting quite a bit of finished product to Europe.

It did not matter before the recent expansion of US oil output. But, at this point, there is an increasing gap emerging between US and world oil prices (yes, of course, this is only possible because not oil is exactly the same, but still). It will be growing. We need a unified world oil market.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 05, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
EU could make exceptions in situations like this.

If Russia wants to play imperialism again, I can see a "fast track" scenario where Turkey and Ukraine could join the organization in little time. Both nations have a high HDI (in fact, Ukraine is more developed than Turkey).

This would basically make the CSU run amok in Germany. In fact, Seehofer would probably prefer a Ukraine which is fully annexed by Russia over a Turkey which holds full EU membership. :P

Don't know. After this we will live in other geopolitical scenario.

And I don't think that bavarians would prefer Russia over Turkey.

Until the US cancels restrictions on oil exports, you are, unfortunately, not in much position to talk.

¿Perdón? Esa expresión sonó bastante personal xd.

It is an established expression in English. Nothing personal - if anything, quite hackneyed. Or am I mistaken and you are not an American?

Uruguayan. My apologies.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MalaspinaGold on March 05, 2014, 02:46:46 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/un-envoy-crimea_n_4905129.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/un-envoy-crimea_n_4905129.html)
A UN envoy is leaving Crimea after having been mobbed by pro-Russian protestors.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on March 05, 2014, 10:23:32 PM
Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-president-putin-wont-rule-out-force--but-will-not-annex-crimea-to-russia-9169250.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on March 05, 2014, 10:58:06 PM
Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-president-putin-wont-rule-out-force--but-will-not-annex-crimea-to-russia-9169250.html)

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 05, 2014, 11:42:59 PM
Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-president-putin-wont-rule-out-force--but-will-not-annex-crimea-to-russia-9169250.html)

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?

Supporting the Crimeans in their quest for independence from the evil Neo-Nazi Ukrainians of course.  But he won't annex Crimea any more than he will annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2014, 12:11:39 AM
Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-president-putin-wont-rule-out-force--but-will-not-annex-crimea-to-russia-9169250.html)

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?

Supporting the Crimeans in their quest for independence from the evil Neo-Nazi Ukrainians of course.  But he won't annex Crimea any more than he will annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.

Yeah, it actually serves his purposes more for Crimea to remain "disputed" in the sense of Abkhzia, Transnistria, etc., than for it to be officially absorbed into Russia in a way that's internationally recognized.  If Ukraine includes territory whose status remains disputed like that, then it's less likely to be admitted into NATO, the EU, etc.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 06, 2014, 12:35:59 AM
Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-president-putin-wont-rule-out-force--but-will-not-annex-crimea-to-russia-9169250.html)

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?

Supporting the Crimeans in their quest for independence from the evil Neo-Nazi Ukrainians of course.  But he won't annex Crimea any more than he will annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.

Yeah, it actually serves his purposes more for Crimea to remain "disputed" in the sense of Abkhzia, Transnistria, etc., then for it to be officially absorbed into Russia in a way that's internationally recognized.  If Ukraine includes territory whose status remains disputed like that, then it's less likely to be admitted into NATO, the EU, etc.

Another thing is that Pro-Russian politicians in the Ukraine are dependent upon Crimea's pro Russian vote. Without it, Ukraine is slanted towards being pro-west.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 06, 2014, 12:42:22 AM
Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea. (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-president-putin-wont-rule-out-force--but-will-not-annex-crimea-to-russia-9169250.html)

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?

Supporting the Crimeans in their quest for independence from the evil Neo-Nazi Ukrainians of course.  But he won't annex Crimea any more than he will annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.

Yeah, it actually serves his purposes more for Crimea to remain "disputed" in the sense of Abkhzia, Transnistria, etc., then for it to be officially absorbed into Russia in a way that's internationally recognized.  If Ukraine includes territory whose status remains disputed like that, then it's less likely to be admitted into NATO, the EU, etc.

Another thing is that Pro-Russian politicians in the Ukraine are dependent upon Crimea's pro Russian vote. Without it, Ukraine is slanted towards being pro-west.

Not really.

I mean, it helps them certainly but it's not absolutely necessary.

I know Yanyukovych would have lost without Crimea but Yanukovych was basically a known attempted murderer.

If there was a pro-Russian candidate who didn't also advocate killing innocent people he would be able to win quite easily.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 06, 2014, 12:51:29 AM
Not now. If Putin's aim was to take control of Ukraine via a pro-Russian government, he's horribly misplayed his hand. But I don't think that is Putin's aim.  What happened with Yanukovych I think convinced him that the EU would interfere sufficiently that he would not be able to bring all of Ukraine into his orbit.  So he aimed for Crimea with what's going on in Eastern Ukraine intended mainly as a bargaining chip rather than a serious attempt at control unless he got lucky.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 06, 2014, 01:15:01 AM
Also, has everyone seen the final wording of the Crimea referendum? Beyond being vague, it's literally meaningless. To paraphrase: Crimea is independent but it is part of Ukraine by virtue of agreements.

Huh?

No matter if "yes" or "no" wins, the Russians can claim their side won.

"Oh, they said 'no' that means Crimea did not agree to be part of Ukraine"

"Oh, they said 'yes' that means Crimea is free to declare independence"

Obviously both answers could also be interpreted as pro-Ukrainian as well.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 06, 2014, 01:18:15 AM
If I was a leader of the anti-Russian side I'd be urging a boycott of it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 04:16:43 AM
Russia Today anchor Liz Wahl quits her job live on air:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h79v9uirLY

RT releases a statement denouncing it as a "self-promotional stunt":

http://rt.com/usa/rt-reacts-liz-wahl-042/


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 04:51:19 AM
According to the Crimean deputy prime minister, the referendum on the future status of the peninsula was pushed up by another two weeks and is now set for March 16. Also, the referendum won't be about independence anymore, but whether Crimea wants to join the Russian Federation.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 06, 2014, 05:13:07 AM
I give you this article (http://www.channel4.com/news/ukraine-catherine-ashton-phone-shoot-maidan-bugged-leaked) with all the caution possible. Aside from retrospecting the main fallacies in both sides' treatment of the crisis, it alleges that some if not most of the people shot on Maidan were shot by opposition gunmen and not government ones. But it comes from an alleged conversation between Ashton and Estonia's FM, bugged by Yanukovich's secret services and reported by RT. So a whole lot of caution with this.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on March 06, 2014, 06:22:00 AM
According to the Crimean deputy prime minister, the referendum on the future status of the peninsula was pushed up by another two weeks and is now set for March 16. Also, the referendum won't be about independence anymore, but whether Crimea wants to join the Russian Federation.

AP via the Guardian on this:
Quote
Lawmakers in the embattled Crimean region of Ukraine decided Thursday to hold a referendum 16 March on whether Crimea should become part of Russia, a move likely to further ratchet up tensions.

"This is our response to the disorder and lawlessness in Kiev," Sergei Shuvainikov, a member of the local Crimean legislature, said. "We will decide our future ourselves."

The parliament in Crimea, which enjoys a degree of autonomy under current Ukrainian law, voted 78 with eight abstentions in favour of holding the referendum. Local voters will also be given the choice of deciding to remain part of Ukraine, but with enhanced local powers.

There was no immediate response from the Ukrainian central government to the vote. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s prime minister told the Associated Press that Crimea would remain part of Ukraine.

A referendum had been already scheduled in Crimea on 30 March, but the question to be put to voters was on whether their region should enjoy “state autonomy” within Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 06:26:10 AM
German vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has just met Putin and Medvedev in Moscow. Contents of the discussion will not be disclosed. Tomorrow he will travel to Kiev.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 07:31:02 AM
U.S. State Department releases a "fact sheet" on Ukraine that starts with:

Quote
President Putin's Fiction: 10 False Claims about Ukraine

As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, “The formula ‘two plus two equals five’ is not without its attractions.”

...

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/03/222988.htm


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 08:03:45 AM
Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.

Yeah, the United States, Japan, as well as the other powers, would be just trilled to have to deal with China reaching as far as the Northern Pole ::)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 08:05:34 AM
Looks like Putin has made a big mistake.

Sure he can annex Crimea, which will not receive any meaningful recognition, or turn it into another Transnistria (basically the same thing), but at huge cost. He's already losing influence in previously solid East and South Ukraine (windjammer being correct here) and the international reaction won't be nice.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on March 06, 2014, 08:15:50 AM
I don't see where he is making a mistake. Ukraine is leaving the Russian's zone of influence and he's trying to save what can be saved (and what matters most to Russian's interest).
Same thing goes with Georgia or Moldavia.

International reaction will be merely symbolic. Business leaders in Europe already spoke against  financial or trade sanctions.

()


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 08:31:35 AM
OSCE observers were refused entry to Crimea by armed men today.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 08:41:24 AM
Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev just made the following statement:

- The Crimean parliament's decision to join the Russian Federation is effective immediately.

- As of this moment, Ukraninian troops on Crimea are considered an occupation force. Ukrainian soldiers on Crimea must either accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian amry or leave the peninsula.

Who the f**k is this Temirgaliev guy anyway? Seems like a major troll to me.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 08:53:38 AM
I don't see where he is making a mistake. Ukraine is leaving the Russian's zone of influence and he's trying to save what can be saved (and what matters most to Russian's interest).
Same thing goes with Georgia or Moldavia.

So he's trying to limit his losses, hardly a strategic victory regarding his own backyard.

Quote
International reaction will be merely symbolic. Business leaders in Europe already spoke against  financial or trade sanctions.

()

People really tend to underestimate diplomatic and political measures that has been applied already and more than can be applied. So no one is going to the economic war with Russia, you don't have to wage an economic war.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 06, 2014, 09:21:46 AM
Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev just made the following statement:

- The Crimean parliament's decision to join the Russian Federation is effective immediately.

- As of this moment, Ukraninian troops on Crimea are considered an occupation force. Ukrainian soldiers on Crimea must either accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian amry or leave the peninsula.

Who the f**k is this Temirgaliev guy anyway? Seems like a major troll to me.
So they're not even waiting to have a phony referendum to implement it now ? Aren't they working a bit too fast ? What made them go so fast from March 30th to March 16th to effective immediately ?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 09:29:46 AM
Russia Today has already adjusted their map of Russia:

()


Also, there's a report that the Simforopol airport started to list Kiev under "international departures" now.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 06, 2014, 10:07:03 AM
Also, has everyone seen the final wording of the Crimea referendum? Beyond being vague, it's literally meaningless. To paraphrase: Crimea is independent but it is part of Ukraine by virtue of agreements.

Huh?

No matter if "yes" or "no" wins, the Russians can claim their side won.

"Oh, they said 'no' that means Crimea did not agree to be part of Ukraine"

"Oh, they said 'yes' that means Crimea is free to declare independence"

Obviously both answers could also be interpreted as pro-Ukrainian as well

Perhaps they were inspired by the PQ.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 06, 2014, 10:56:52 AM
Also, has everyone seen the final wording of the Crimea referendum? Beyond being vague, it's literally meaningless. To paraphrase: Crimea is independent but it is part of Ukraine by virtue of agreements.

Huh?

No matter if "yes" or "no" wins, the Russians can claim their side won.

"Oh, they said 'no' that means Crimea did not agree to be part of Ukraine"

"Oh, they said 'yes' that means Crimea is free to declare independence"

Obviously both answers could also be interpreted as pro-Ukrainian as well.

At least the wording has been changed now to be far less vague.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 06, 2014, 10:57:33 AM
Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev just made the following statement:

- The Crimean parliament's decision to join the Russian Federation is effective immediately.

- As of this moment, Ukraninian troops on Crimea are considered an occupation force. Ukrainian soldiers on Crimea must either accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian army or leave the peninsula.

Who the f**k is this Temirgaliev guy anyway? Seems like a major troll to me.

Seems odd considering that Russian troops have apparently pulled back from one Ukrainian base in the Crimea:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26466902 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26466902)

Is the pullback a PR stunt or did it cause the Crimeans to try forcing Putin's hand because they began to worry he'd abandon them? Not that I think they have anything to worry about on that front, but if that were to happen now, they'd be up [Inks] creek without a paddle, or even a boat, so I can understand them making certain they are securely on the back of the bear they have chosen to ride.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 06, 2014, 12:10:41 PM
it seems the West has sufficiently managed to keep Putin and others busy answering incoming phone calls from D.C., Berlin and elsewhere that subordinates now lack a clear idea of where the journey shall go, and everybody is drawing their own conclusions.
Apparently, the "illegal" Ukrainian interim government, which Russian media describes to be in a state of chaos, is much more effective in ensuring coherent action, and they seem to have studied the "Prague 1968" playbook quite intensively. German media yesterday showed another Ukrainian base under "observation" by Russian troops. The Ukrainian commander expressed his concern about the "poor Russian guys" that had to spend the night outside in their vans, and indicated he was working on a more "human" solution. Supposing there was still some Vodka to be found in or near that base, I have a suspicion how that evening may have developed..

The Crimean government, meanwhile, has some work left to ensure a coherent representation abroad. On the ITB, the world's largest tourism fair that opened yesterday in Berlin, Crimea is represented with their own booth:
()
The booth is part of the Ukrainian presentation and situated in front of a map that displays Crimea as part of Ukraine. The Russian presentation, btw., is directly adjacent, as is the US'.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on March 06, 2014, 01:13:35 PM
U.S. State Department releases a "fact sheet" on Ukraine that starts with:

Quote
President Putin's Fiction: 10 False Claims about Ukraine

As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, “The formula ‘two plus two equals five’ is not without its attractions.”

...

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/03/222988.htm

Well, perhaps they were pleased with themselves about that Dostoyevsky line.  But what they say about number 10 is a bit dubious given that Svoboda have substantial representation in parliament and in the new government, and I understand that the leader of Right Sector (who appear to be made up of people who think Svoboda have gone soft) has been given a government post.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 01:17:55 PM
Both the European Union and the United States reacted with such measures as imposing visa restrictions on Russia and suspending several agreements. Also, the former is about to sing  association agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 06, 2014, 01:35:27 PM
http://www.voanews.com/content/khrushchevs-son-giving-crimea-back-to-russia-not-an-option/1865752.html (http://www.voanews.com/content/khrushchevs-son-giving-crimea-back-to-russia-not-an-option/1865752.html)

Nikita Kruschkevev's son Sergei says that giving the Crimea back to Russia is "not an option"


I'm not buying it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on March 06, 2014, 01:47:06 PM
So he's trying to limit his losses, hardly a strategic victory regarding his own backyard.
Russia has been trying to limit its losses since 1991, it's nothing new. Next is Moldavia and the only remaining of Russian influence on its western border will be Belarus.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 06, 2014, 02:22:30 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 06, 2014, 02:35:56 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.
While I tend to agree in general, this time it is a bit more complicated. In the 1994 Budapest Convention, the USA, the UK and Russia have guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Ukraine handing over all nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. If any of the signatories now unilaterally questioned that accord, that would mean a massive blow to worldwide arms control, and put the international credibility of all parties at stake.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 02:37:45 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.
While I tend to agree in general, this time it is a bit more complicated. In the 1994 Budapest Convention, the USA, the UK and Russia have guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Ukraine handing over all nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. If any of the signatories now unilaterally questioned that accord, that would mean a massive blow to worldwide arms control, and put the international credibility of all parties at stake.

This. Also, the whole European stability depends on respecting existing borders. Russia's one-sided action threathens it's very foundation.

Naturally, changes should be possible, but only if it is a mutual agreement (like the German reunification or Czechoslovak separation) in accordance with the international law. Crimea is not the case.

There are a lot of skeletons in EU and U.S. closets and I'm always willing to condemn illegal and harmful actions by any government. But West in on the right side here.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Rocky Rockefeller on March 06, 2014, 02:41:12 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Hey Snowstalker, Glad to see your at least spreading your sh[inks]t evenly now! 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 06, 2014, 02:50:07 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Deep.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 03:14:51 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Deep.

Kinda ironic coming from you.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zioneer on March 06, 2014, 03:20:58 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Nobody cares, Snowie.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: StateBoiler on March 06, 2014, 03:33:09 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.
While I tend to agree in general, this time it is a bit more complicated. In the 1994 Budapest Convention, the USA, the UK and Russia have guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Ukraine handing over all nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. If any of the signatories now unilaterally questioned that accord, that would mean a massive blow to worldwide arms control, and put the international credibility of all parties at stake.

This. Also, the whole European stability depends on respecting existing borders.

which was completely disrespected with the establishment of Kosovo

and does respecting existing borders also mean Catalonia should not in fact become independent if the referendum passes in November, which Spain says they don't recognize as legitimate? based on Von Rompuy's and Merkel's statements that the Crimean referendum is illegal based on the Ukrainian constitution, Rajoy should be doing cartwheels because for the EU to be ideologically consistent, that means Catalonian referendum is not legitimate either (the Constitutional Court of Spain has suspended Catalonian parliament declarations in regards to sovereignty, independence, and the referendum)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: retromike22 on March 06, 2014, 03:40:08 PM
https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/441662520831393792 (https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/441662520831393792)
Michael McFaul (former Ambassador to Russia) tweets:

"If Russian govt. endorses Crimean referendum, will they also allow/endorse similar votes in republics in Russian Federation?"


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mopsus on March 06, 2014, 03:53:35 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Deep.

Kinda ironic coming from you.

Not as ironic as it coming from someone who supports sweatshops...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on March 06, 2014, 04:12:59 PM
Regarding the security guarantee Budpest Memorandum signed by UK, US and Russia. Does anyone know why France and China didn't sign it? Wikipedia says they "later gave individual statements of assurance" is this correct? Neither China nor France seems to have any intentions of getting involved in this.


Title: Re: Putin vs. Hitler
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 06, 2014, 04:14:45 PM
Vladimir Putin is obviously not Hitler. Not quite, anyway.

Hitler believed in the racial superiority of his people and that they deserved a Lebensraum which consisted of almost all of Eastern Europe as well as parts of Asia... including territories which at no point in history had been by Germany in any way.

Putin doesn't believe in any of this. He most likely believes - being an old school KGB officer and all - that Russia deserves to control a sphere of influence which is more or less identical to the boundaries of the old Soviet Union. Maybe (and hopefully) without the Baltic republics... hopefully because that could cause real trouble. But I assume that Putin knows very well that as long as NATO exists that any direct aggression against the Baltics automatically triggers Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and this means World War III. And I also doubt that Putin believes in "victory or death" like Hitler did.

There's one parallel between Hitler and Putin though. Both men believed that the rules don't apply to them as long as they find a way to get away with it. In essence, they believed in military power and that international law is just something written on a piece of paper.

What does this mean for "the West"? It means that the West has to deal with someone who belives that everything is fair game as long as it happens on the former territory of the Soviet Unions (sans the Baltic republics).

Now that's my take on Godwin. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 04:19:49 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Deep.

Kinda ironic coming from you.

Not as ironic as it coming from someone who supports sweatshops...

Not ironic, this is "rich".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mopsus on March 06, 2014, 04:26:21 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Deep.

Kinda ironic coming from you.

Not as ironic as it coming from someone who supports sweatshops...

Not ironic, this is "rich".

Ah, so close! I promise to go home and study my epic Atlas may-mays later today.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 06, 2014, 07:12:10 PM

Let the butthurt flow through you....


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 06, 2014, 07:14:17 PM
I've heard some reports Yanukovych is in hospital, heart attack suspected.


Let the butthurt flow through you....

Some sick burn, brother.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on March 06, 2014, 08:06:35 PM
Lol Yakunovitch. At least, if he dies, the temporary government in Ukraine couldn't be contested :p.


Title: Re: Putin vs. Hitler
Post by: Paleobrazilian on March 06, 2014, 08:36:57 PM
Vladimir Putin is obviously not Hitler. Not quite, anyway.

Hitler believed in the racial superiority of his people and that they deserved a Lebensraum which consisted of almost all of Eastern Europe as well as parts of Asia... including territories which at no point in history had been by Germany in any way.

Putin doesn't believe in any of this. He most likely believes - being an old school KGB officer and all - that Russia deserves to control a sphere of influence which is more or less identical to the boundaries of the old Soviet Union. Maybe (and hopefully) without the Baltic republics... hopefully because that could cause real trouble. But I assume that Putin knows very well that as long as NATO exists that any direct aggression against the Baltics automatically triggers Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and this means World War III. And I also doubt that Putin believes in "victory or death" like Hitler did.

There's one parallel between Hitler and Putin though. Both men believed that the rules don't apply to them as long as they find a way to get away with it. In essence, they believed in military power and that international law is just something written on a piece of paper.

What does this mean for "the West"? It means that the West has to deal with someone who belives that everything is fair game as long as it happens on the former territory of the Soviet Unions (sans the Baltic republics).

Now that's my take on Godwin. :P

While Putin is no Hitler, the eurasianist thought of many around him is blatantly fascist. Aleksandr Dugin, for example, loves to talk about the need to bring together the "Aryan Nations" under mother Russia. Yikes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 06, 2014, 08:51:32 PM
The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

SELF-determination would have been fine :)


Title: Re: Putin vs. Hitler
Post by: ag on March 06, 2014, 08:59:25 PM
Vladimir Putin is obviously not Hitler. Not quite, anyway.

Hitler believed in the racial superiority of his people and that they deserved a Lebensraum which consisted of almost all of Eastern Europe as well as parts of Asia... including territories which at no point in history had been by Germany in any way.

Putin doesn't believe in any of this. He most likely believes - being an old school KGB officer and all - that Russia deserves to control a sphere of influence which is more or less identical to the boundaries of the old Soviet Union. Maybe (and hopefully) without the Baltic republics... hopefully because that could cause real trouble. But I assume that Putin knows very well that as long as NATO exists that any direct aggression against the Baltics automatically triggers Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and this means World War III. And I also doubt that Putin believes in "victory or death" like Hitler did.

There's one parallel between Hitler and Putin though. Both men believed that the rules don't apply to them as long as they find a way to get away with it. In essence, they believed in military power and that international law is just something written on a piece of paper.

What does this mean for "the West"? It means that the West has to deal with someone who belives that everything is fair game as long as it happens on the former territory of the Soviet Unions (sans the Baltic republics).

Now that's my take on Godwin. :P

The guy was the KGB chief in Dresden. Are you SURE Baltics would be the only problem?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 06, 2014, 09:06:59 PM
Lol Yakunovitch. At least, if he dies, the temporary government in Ukraine couldn't be contested :p.

Actually, he may have been a somewhat better man than one would have thought. If he really refused to utter the call for the Russians to come in and lost his life for that, this is a big deal.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 07, 2014, 06:01:14 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/world/europe/ukraine.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0

Quote
The speaker of the Russian Parliament said on Friday that Russia would embrace a decision by Crimea to break away from Ukraine and become part of the Russian Federation, the first public signal that the Kremlin would back a secessionist move that Western leaders and the government in Kiev have denounced as a violation of international law.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 07, 2014, 07:02:41 AM
And Ukraine is already implementing massive austerity measures, including halving pensions. Wonderful.

The Foreign Ministry of Estonia (a country not exactly friendly with Moscow) raises questions about who was responsible for the sniper fire during the Maidan protests. (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/05/world/europe/ukraine-leaked-audio-recording/)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 07, 2014, 10:55:35 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-russia-cyberespionage-insight-idUSBREA260YI20140307 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-russia-cyberespionage-insight-idUSBREA260YI20140307)

Russia appears to have aimed spyware at Europe and the U.S, which they call Turla...

It would be interesting to see the timing of this spyware's creation compared to the hostilities in Ukraine (and Georgia I guess) given the targets.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on March 07, 2014, 12:08:43 PM
Ukraine have made a notable statement at the opening ceremony of the Paralympics; only their flag bearer came out in the athletes' parade. They will compete unless the situation escalates.


Title: Re: Putin vs. Hitler
Post by: Person Man on March 07, 2014, 12:43:09 PM
Vladimir Putin is obviously not Hitler. Not quite, anyway.

Hitler believed in the racial superiority of his people and that they deserved a Lebensraum which consisted of almost all of Eastern Europe as well as parts of Asia... including territories which at no point in history had been by Germany in any way.

Putin doesn't believe in any of this. He most likely believes - being an old school KGB officer and all - that Russia deserves to control a sphere of influence which is more or less identical to the boundaries of the old Soviet Union. Maybe (and hopefully) without the Baltic republics... hopefully because that could cause real trouble. But I assume that Putin knows very well that as long as NATO exists that any direct aggression against the Baltics automatically triggers Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and this means World War III. And I also doubt that Putin believes in "victory or death" like Hitler did.

There's one parallel between Hitler and Putin though. Both men believed that the rules don't apply to them as long as they find a way to get away with it. In essence, they believed in military power and that international law is just something written on a piece of paper.

What does this mean for "the West"? It means that the West has to deal with someone who belives that everything is fair game as long as it happens on the former territory of the Soviet Unions (sans the Baltic republics).

Now that's my take on Godwin. :P

But didn't the Soviet SoI extend beyond Soviet borders and into Southeastern and Central Europe? Or does Putin basically just want to restore the Soviet Union but with the breakaway states as puppets? Maybe he would be interested in the FYR sans Slovenia and Croatia? but then again Yugoslavia was a neutral communist country in the Cold War.

I'm just free associating now, but beyond Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, Russia has no "in" into places the USSR was in Europe. Asia seems pretty fair game as there was already a way there. I wonder if they will eventually even go into places like Afghanistan to "fight the terrorists" once we leave.   


Title: Re: Putin vs. Hitler
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 07, 2014, 01:21:57 PM
Maybe he would be interested in the FYR sans Slovenia and Croatia? but then again Yugoslavia was a neutral communist country in the Cold War.

Russian interest there is a mixture of simple power politics mixed with 19th century Romantic Pan-Slavism.  To a degree that also explains Serbian interest, tho I think that all but the most hard-headed Serbs realize that renewed Serbian dominance of the South Slavs is pure Romantic fiction at this point.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Miles on March 07, 2014, 03:56:10 PM
Russians seize Ukranian base in Crimea.  (https://twitter.com/France24_en/status/442038267592978432)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 07, 2014, 05:49:49 PM


The Foreign Ministry of Estonia (a country not exactly friendly with Moscow) raises questions about who was responsible for the sniper fire during the Maidan protests. (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/05/world/europe/ukraine-leaked-audio-recording/)

Would you mind first, actually, bothering to read the transcript of the conversation, before posting this here. It has been made public.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on March 07, 2014, 09:29:49 PM
The Kremlin is signaling they are prepared to bite the bullet if that's what it takes to annex Crimea (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/world/europe/ukraine.html?hp&_r=0).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on March 07, 2014, 09:30:33 PM
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/03/who-will-protect-the-crimean-tatars.html
Quote
At first, Rustem Kadyrov could barely make out the mark outside his house, in the Crimean town of Bakhchysarai, but it filled him with terror. It was an X, cut deep into the gray metal of the gate, and its significance cut even deeper, evoking a memory Kadyrov shares with all Crimean Tatars. Kadyrov, who is thirty-one, grew up hearing stories about marks on doors. In May of 1944, Stalin ordered his police to tag the houses of Crimean Tatars, the native Muslim residents of the peninsula. Within a matter of days, all of them—almost two hundred thousand people—were evicted from their homes, loaded onto trains, and sent to Central Asia, on the pretext that the community had collaborated with the Nazi occupation of Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 08, 2014, 02:52:17 PM
SPIEGEL ONLINE reports that Angela Merkel will boycott the G8 Summit in Sochi if the Crimean referendum isn't cancelled.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2014, 02:57:19 PM
SPIEGEL ONLINE reports that Angela Merkel will boycott the G8 Summit in Sochi if the Crimean referendum isn't cancelled.

Good, but sanctions and expelling Russia from the G8 would be better.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 08, 2014, 05:33:46 PM
SPIEGEL ONLINE reports that Angela Merkel will boycott the G8 Summit in Sochi if the Crimean referendum isn't cancelled.

Good, but sanctions and expelling Russia from the G8 would be better.

Why bother?  The G7 still meets from time to time and many of the more important things the G8 did have been transferred to the G20.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 08, 2014, 05:52:52 PM
Yeah, the G8 stopped being important several years ago.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on March 09, 2014, 04:49:38 AM
Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 09, 2014, 06:10:33 AM
Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

Well, to follow the old Cold War logic:

It certainly won't lead to WWIII as long as everyone involved remains aware that it could lead to WWIII. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 09, 2014, 11:10:57 AM
Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

No.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: IceSpear on March 09, 2014, 12:00:19 PM
Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

No. It's looking more and more likely that the West will acquiesce to Russia annexing Crimea under the guise of their phony referendum while giving them a slap on the wrist with sanctions. The real trouble will come if Russia ever tries this with a NATO country.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 09, 2014, 12:55:02 PM
Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

No. It's looking more and more likely that the West will acquiesce to Russia annexing Crimea under the guise of their phony referendum while giving them a slap on the wrist with sanctions. The real trouble will come if Russia ever tries this with a NATO country.

Which, unless this is made painful, will happen earlier, than you think.

Crimea is, probably, as good as anschlussed. There will be no war in 2014.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 09, 2014, 03:30:53 PM
ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Likely Voter on March 09, 2014, 04:02:52 PM
If Ukraine were a member of NATO, Russia would never do what it is doing in Crimea...which is why they are doing it now. Putin was hoping to bring Ukraine into his "Eurasian Union" but now he sees a risk of Ukraine joining the EU and/or NATO sometime in the future and so he is taking what he can now before it is too late. In fact I suspect that he would rather keep Crimea as a disputed territory as that will prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 09, 2014, 04:09:39 PM
ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

4 billion people dead worldwide would break Russia for good, yes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Blue3 on March 09, 2014, 05:58:13 PM
What are the chances of Ukraine joining NATO now?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 09, 2014, 07:46:13 PM
ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

I do not want Russia broken, for good or temporarily. I grew up there. The reason I want Russia contained is precisely that I do not want a war, which would break a lot more than Russia (and may kill many of those dear to me there). At this point we can just hope it is done in time.

No, I should not be Secretary of State :) God forbid :)

Anyway, an interesting tidbit. There was only one country back in 1938 that officially protested against Anschluss at the League of Nations. And it was Mexico.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 09, 2014, 08:22:01 PM
Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

No, I am not Hungarian or a neo-fascist. However, their reaction is understandable for the same reason that non-Ukrainians in western Ukraine (Hungarians, Slovaks, Romanians, etc.) often vote for the Party of Regions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 09, 2014, 08:29:57 PM
What are the chances of Ukraine joining NATO now?
Very low, NATO doesn't like dead weight.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SPC on March 09, 2014, 08:32:56 PM
Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

By that logic, was Churchill a fascist for supporting (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Italian_War) the Greeks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_of_August_Regime)?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 09, 2014, 08:34:05 PM
Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

No, I am not Hungarian or a neo-fascist.

The first is, probably, true.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 09, 2014, 08:38:19 PM
ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

I do not want Russia broken, for good or temporarily. I grew up there. The reason I want Russia contained is precisely that I do not want a war, which would break a lot more than Russia (and may kill many of those dear to me there). At this point we can just hope it is done in time.

No, I should not be Secretary of State :) God forbid :)

Anyway, an interesting tidbit. There was only one country back in 1938 that officially protested against Anschluss at the League of Nations. And it was Mexico.

Funnily enough Mexico was also the only country to protest against Ethiopia's invasion by the (real) fascists in 1935. There is a roundabout in Addis Ababa called "Mexico Square", or at least there was, until it was obliterated to make way for some monstrous elevated rail.

()


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Sol on March 09, 2014, 09:03:23 PM
It'll be interesting to see, once this is all over, what voting patterns in Eastern and Southern Ukraine look like - It wouldn't be shocking to me if the division was markedly reduced.

Is there any indication that Putin'll take over anywhere besides Crimea in the short term?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 09, 2014, 09:07:49 PM
It'll be interesting to see, once this is all over, what voting patterns in Eastern and Southern Ukraine look like - It wouldn't be shocking to me if the division was markedly reduced.

Is there any indication that Putin'll take over anywhere besides Crimea in the short term?

Well, at the very least, they are not very content with the administrative borders of the Crimea. Russian positions are a few hundred meters into the Cherson village of Chongar on the border. Whether they go anywhere else, remains to be seen. Might well do so.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 09, 2014, 09:10:38 PM
ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

I do not want Russia broken, for good or temporarily. I grew up there. The reason I want Russia contained is precisely that I do not want a war, which would break a lot more than Russia (and may kill many of those dear to me there). At this point we can just hope it is done in time.

No, I should not be Secretary of State :) God forbid :)

Anyway, an interesting tidbit. There was only one country back in 1938 that officially protested against Anschluss at the League of Nations. And it was Mexico.

Funnily enough Mexico was also the only country to protest against Ethiopia's invasion by the (real) fascists in 1935. There is a roundabout in Addis Ababa called "Mexico Square", or at least there was, until it was obliterated to make way for some monstrous elevated rail.

()

Whatever else one thinks of President Cárdenas, he knew his fascists when he saw them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 10, 2014, 12:20:36 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html)

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 10, 2014, 12:48:40 PM
Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.

The article you cited states that Putin was nominated in October, so Ukraine didn't factor into this and hence can't constitute a reason for its inappropriateness.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 10, 2014, 01:03:28 PM
Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.

The article you cited states that Putin was nominated in October, so Ukraine didn't factor into this and hence can't constitute a reason for its inappropriateness.

No, the article notes  that "it had likely submitted in October" not that it definitely was submitted in October, plus it also cites Voice of Russia, which is basically a Putin propaganda arm.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 10, 2014, 01:14:53 PM
Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.

The article you cited states that Putin was nominated in October, so Ukraine didn't factor into this and hence can't constitute a reason for its inappropriateness.

No, the article notes  that "it had likely submitted in October" not that it definitely was submitted in October, plus it also cites Voice of Russia, which is basically a Putin propaganda arm.

Deadline for the nominations was Feb. 1, which is still well before Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 10, 2014, 01:37:49 PM
Where are Russian troops stationed right now?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 10, 2014, 04:16:54 PM
Where are Russian troops stationed right now?

Crimea? Unless you are asking more specifically.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 10, 2014, 06:46:46 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html)

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.
Yasser [inks]ing Arafat got a nobel prize. It is a joke.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on March 10, 2014, 07:14:31 PM
Where are Russian troops stationed right now?

Perhaps this might help. The last update was a week ago, but anyway.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 10, 2014, 08:33:38 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html)

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.
Yasser [inks]ing Arafat got a nobel prize. It is a joke.

You don't really understand why Yasser Arafat won.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Vosem on March 10, 2014, 08:51:58 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html)

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.
Yasser [inks]ing Arafat got a nobel prize. It is a joke.

You don't really understand why Yasser Arafat won.

Neither does anyone else.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 10, 2014, 09:37:19 PM
Henry Kissinger and Barack Obama have Nobel Peace Prizes. The award isn't exactly meaningful.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 11, 2014, 03:04:05 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html)

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.
Yasser [inks]ing Arafat got a nobel prize. It is a joke.

At the time, it did seem like a good idea to award it to Arafat. Nobody could foresee that the reason for awarding it to him would disappear again shortly thereafter.

Menachem Begin also won the Nobel peace prize, despite the fact that he was responsible - among other things - for the King David Hotel bombing in 1946 which had killed 91 innocent people. Almost nobody seems to question Begin winning the peace prize, probably because the reason for awarding it to Begin - creating lasting peace between Israel and Egypt - didn't disappear almost instantly.

Of course, if we assume that past "evil" actions can't be cancelled out by whatever good you have done since then, then neither Begin nor Arafat deserved the Nobel prize. Strictly speaking, both men deserved to go to jail for life and to have the Nobel peace prize be awarded to them.

In any case, this is just a nomination Putin has received and hence it is completely meaningless. Pretty much everybody has been nominated for the Nobel peace prize since it has come into existence. Hitler and Stalin were nominated for the Peace prize too.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Angel of Death on March 11, 2014, 05:46:59 AM
Let's not kid ourselves here. Arafat may have been an authoritarian ruler, but it is simply a fact that any possible Palestinian leader that wouldn't be an outright Quisling to his own people, would always find himself automatically vilified in the post-Holocaust West merely for being opposed by Jews.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 11, 2014, 05:52:31 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html)

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.

A lot of people gets nominated. Bush was nominated in 2003, right after Iraq, by some nutjob. Even Godwin character was nominated. Big f**king deal.

He's not getting Nobel anyway.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 11, 2014, 10:37:35 AM
Let's... direct the conversation back on topic...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on March 11, 2014, 11:02:51 AM
There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

This carries staggering implications. Where will the people turn without their books but to anarchy?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 11, 2014, 11:11:13 AM
There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

And?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 11, 2014, 01:31:03 PM
There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

Unfortunately, I am not sure there is anybody, currently writing in Ukrainian, who is likely to ever get it. Then, again, I do not know much about the current Ukrainian literature.

Of the living Russian-language writers there is one, who is, most definitely deserving. And he happens to be Abkhaz: Fazil Iskander. That would be an interesting choice. But it would be very hard to interpret in the context of the Ukrainian situation :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Franknburger on March 11, 2014, 05:25:06 PM
There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

Unfortunately, I am not sure there is anybody, currently writing in Ukrainian, who is likely to ever get it. Then, again, I do not know much about the current Ukrainian literature.

Of the living Russian-language writers there is one, who is, most definitely deserving. And he happens to be Abkhaz: Fazil Iskander. That would be an interesting choice. But it would be very hard to interpret in the context of the Ukrainian situation :)
If I were on the Nobel Price committee, Iskander had my vote. Does he actually have Russian, or Kirgiz nationality?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 11, 2014, 07:52:05 PM
There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

Unfortunately, I am not sure there is anybody, currently writing in Ukrainian, who is likely to ever get it. Then, again, I do not know much about the current Ukrainian literature.

Of the living Russian-language writers there is one, who is, most definitely deserving. And he happens to be Abkhaz: Fazil Iskander. That would be an interesting choice. But it would be very hard to interpret in the context of the Ukrainian situation :)
If I were on the Nobel Price committee, Iskander had my vote. Does he actually have Russian, or Kirgiz nationality?

You are confusing him with Chingiz Aitmatov, I guess.

Iskander is not a Kyrgyz, but an Abkhaz (approximately nothing in common, except for Muslim ancestry and Soviet history). He has lived most of his life in Moscow, and has only written in Russian. So, of course, he is a Russian citizen.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 13, 2014, 12:45:24 AM
http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/ (http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/)

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 13, 2014, 08:00:30 AM
The Greens in the European Parliament have started a petition which demands that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder should be banned from starting any more threads on Ukraine or Crimea.

Well, it's a resolution actually... and it says that he should refrain from making any more statements on the issue because of his pro-Russia stance and his conflict of interest because of his involvement with Gazprom. But it reads like a petition to the Atlas mods. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 13, 2014, 08:39:11 PM
http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/ (http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/)

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.
Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 13, 2014, 09:26:02 PM
http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/ (http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/)

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.
Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 13, 2014, 09:50:36 PM
http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/ (http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/)

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.
Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine - far from Crimea. A public commitment to defense of, at least, mainland Ukraine is urgent. Otherwise, we will be discussing Poland a lot sooner than most think.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 14, 2014, 08:28:30 AM
http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/ (http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/)

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.
Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine - far from Crimea. A public commitment to defense of, at least, mainland Ukraine is urgent. Otherwise, we will be discussing Poland a lot sooner than most think.
I get that you are anxious, ag, I really get it. But Poland is part of the EU and Nato for Bretzel's sake ! It's a completely different story.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 14, 2014, 09:38:14 AM
http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/ (http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/)

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.
Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine - far from Crimea. A public commitment to defense of, at least, mainland Ukraine is urgent. Otherwise, we will be discussing Poland a lot sooner than most think.
I get that you are anxious, ag, I really get it. But Poland is part of the EU and Nato for Bretzel's sake ! It's a completely different story.

Agreed.
Georgia is Austria.
Ukraine is Czechoslovakia.
Poland is Poland, which means it needs to be prepared to have a nervous Germany stab her in the back to secure its gas supply.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 14, 2014, 11:05:05 AM
I can't understand why leaving Crimea to the Russians is so hard for the West. They already had the territory de facto.

Anyway, if a press tirh Russian FM was intelligent, they should ask him about "self determination" in Chechenya


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 14, 2014, 11:35:57 AM
http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/ (http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/)

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.
Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine - far from Crimea. A public commitment to defense of, at least, mainland Ukraine is urgent. Otherwise, we will be discussing Poland a lot sooner than most think.
I get that you are anxious, ag, I really get it. But Poland is part of the EU and Nato for Bretzel's sake ! It's a completely different story.

So, when Putin asks for, say, a land link to Kaliningrad, you guys will, actually, be willing to fight?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 14, 2014, 11:36:33 AM
I can't understand why leaving Crimea to the Russians is so hard for the West. They already had the territory de facto.



Because Russia will not be satisfied with Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 14, 2014, 12:04:10 PM
I can't understand why leaving Crimea to the Russians is so hard for the West. They already had the territory de facto.

They didn't. Well, depends on how you define "having". If you mean having by lots of ethnic Russians living there, then Turkey de facto has Berlin-Kreuzberg too. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 14, 2014, 12:07:54 PM
Poland is Poland, which means it needs to be prepared to have a nervous Germany stab her in the back to secure its gas supply.

Let's hope that Uschi - our new commander-in-chief - didn't read your suggestion. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 14, 2014, 06:18:04 PM
Seems like everything is getting ready for a Russian invasion into the Ukrainian mainland. God help us all.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 14, 2014, 11:10:22 PM
Not good (re: the possibility of Russia intervening in Ukraine outside of Crimea):

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/russia-warning-fatal-clashes-ukraine-donetsk-protect-compatriots

Quote
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine rose higher on Friday as casualties mounted from clashes between pro- and anti-Russian protesters in Donetsk and the Russian foreign ministry suggested it could intervene to protect lives.
.
.
.
The statement [from the Russian foreign ministry] also hinted that Russian forces could intervene in eastern Ukraine to protect Russians there, the same justification used for sending troops to occupy key facilities in Crimea.

"Russia recognises its responsibility for the lives of countrymen and fellow citizens in Ukraine and reserves the right to take people under its protection," it said.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 15, 2014, 08:09:09 AM
Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 15, 2014, 08:21:59 AM
Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

You know who else suggested new infractable offenses?  That's right….Hitler.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 15, 2014, 08:35:31 AM
Reports that 40 Russian paratroopers have landed in eastern Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 15, 2014, 09:32:29 AM
Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 15, 2014, 10:30:54 AM
Ukrainians repelled that Russian landing attempt, while Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution declaring the referendum illegal.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on March 15, 2014, 11:03:42 AM
Ukrainian foreign office statement (via Guardian):
Quote
Statement of the MFA of Ukraine with respect to assault landing of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kherson region on March 15


Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine expresses its strong and categorical protest against the landing on March 15, 2014 near the village Strilkove, Kherson region of troops of the Russian Federation Armed Forces in a number of 80 military personnel, and seizure of the village Strilkove with the support of 4 helicopter gunships and 3 armored combat machines.

Ukraine Foreign Ministry declares the military invasion by Russia and demands the Russian side immediately withdraw its military forces from the territory of Ukraine.

Ukraine reserves the right to use all necessary measures to stop the military invasion by Russia.

Strilkove is in the Kherson oblast part of a spit of land on the western side of the Sea of Azov which is split between Kherson oblast and Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 15, 2014, 11:47:00 AM
Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.


Considering your amazing grasp on reality, I'm actually relieved to heard that.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MalaspinaGold on March 15, 2014, 12:43:07 PM
Apparently Russian troops have seized a natural gas plant outside Crimea:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/15/moscow-protest-crimea_n_4969970.html#598_ukraine-says-russian-forces-seize-gas-plant-outside-crimea (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/15/moscow-protest-crimea_n_4969970.html#598_ukraine-says-russian-forces-seize-gas-plant-outside-crimea)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 15, 2014, 01:41:50 PM
Ukrainians repelled that Russian landing attempt, while Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution declaring the referendum illegal.

China sort of backed Russia up here... they abstained rather joining Russia's veto, but they don't seem oppose Russia either...

I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia (Which we know he won't, but it's not the Ukraine can really hold for more than two weeks if Putin puts some effort into an invasion.)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 15, 2014, 01:42:42 PM
I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia

It's not.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 15, 2014, 01:48:15 PM
I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37OWL7AzvHo


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 15, 2014, 01:51:39 PM
Tens of thousands of people participated in a peace march in Moscow today, outnumbering the rival pro-Putin rally by far:

http://www.dw.de/tens-of-thousands-attend-moscow-peace-rally-as-russia-vetoes-un-resolution-on-crimea-referendum/a-17499145


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Maxwell on March 15, 2014, 02:03:31 PM
I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUttbZcv7WI


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: SWE on March 15, 2014, 02:04:29 PM
I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia
I see no consequences


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on March 15, 2014, 02:10:42 PM
According to Al Jazeera, the Russian line on the Strilkove incident is that they were trying to prevent a "terrorist attack" on a gas plant.  (The implication was also that the Russian troops are still there.)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: bullmoose88 on March 15, 2014, 03:27:41 PM
Ukrainians repelled that Russian landing attempt, while Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution declaring the referendum illegal.

I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia (Which we know he won't, but it's not the Ukraine can really hold for more than two weeks if Putin puts some effort into an invasion.)

If you're sincere about this, you better decide and practice the pose in which you would like to be etched into the sidewalk.  The West isn't going to turn and burn for Ukraine.  Moscow knows this.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 15, 2014, 04:04:06 PM
I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia

How f**king brave of you considering you neither would have to fight nor you live in the region.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 15, 2014, 05:33:51 PM
We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: CatoMinor on March 15, 2014, 05:55:17 PM
We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.
You are just trolling right?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 15, 2014, 05:59:19 PM
We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.
You are just trolling right?
You are correct: nuclear weapons are too dangerous. Chemical weapons would be better to give them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 15, 2014, 06:46:16 PM
We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.
You are just trolling right?
You are correct: nuclear weapons are too dangerous. Chemical weapons would be better to give them.
...your still trolling, right?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 15, 2014, 08:05:19 PM
According to Al Jazeera, the Russian line on the Strilkove incident is that they were trying to prevent a "terrorist attack" on a gas plant.  (The implication was also that the Russian troops are still there.)

A "pre-emptive strike" against "terrorism"? No wonder Bush liked what he saw in Putin's soil.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2014, 08:10:57 PM
According to Al Jazeera, the Russian line on the Strilkove incident is that they were trying to prevent a "terrorist attack" on a gas plant.  (The implication was also that the Russian troops are still there.)

A "pre-emptive strike" against "terrorism"? No wonder Bush liked what he saw in Putin's soil.

I wonder when Russia will bomb the Kremlin. Plenty of terrorists there.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 15, 2014, 08:20:11 PM
According to Al Jazeera, the Russian line on the Strilkove incident is that they were trying to prevent a "terrorist attack" on a gas plant.  (The implication was also that the Russian troops are still there.)

A "pre-emptive strike" against "terrorism"? No wonder Bush liked what he saw in Putin's soil.

I wonder when Russia will bomb the Kremlin. Plenty of terrorists there.

Robert Gates was head of the CIA when it mined the Nicaraguan Harbor and the USA became the only country ever convicted of terrorism by the World Court, so naturally he was a key leader in the "War on Terrorism". It was crystal clear that "change" was just a slogan for Obama the moment he decided to retain Robert Gates.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: bullmoose88 on March 15, 2014, 08:39:19 PM
According to Al Jazeera, the Russian line on the Strilkove incident is that they were trying to prevent a "terrorist attack" on a gas plant.  (The implication was also that the Russian troops are still there.)

A "pre-emptive strike" against "terrorism"? No wonder Bush liked what he saw in Putin's soil.

I don't see what dirt, earthworms, and shrubs have to do with this.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 15, 2014, 08:41:03 PM
We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.
You are just trolling right?
You are correct: nuclear weapons are too dangerous. Chemical weapons would be better to give them.
...your still trolling, right?
We have two choices if we don't want Putin to enslave Ukraine and eventually Eastern Europe: either we go in ourselves or Ukraine gets the arms it needs to scare off Russia. I don't want to start world war III, so I prefer the second route.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 15, 2014, 09:38:38 PM
Some interesting details from Foundations of Geopolitics, the founding document of modern Eurasianism and a major influence on Russian foreign policy circles. Bolded key parts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Military operations play relatively little role. The textbook believes in a sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services. The operations should be assisted by a tough, hard-headed utilization of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resources to bully and pressure other countries.[1] The book states that "the maximum task [of the future] is the 'Finlandization’ of all of Europe".[1]

In Europe:

    -Germany should be offered the de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. Kaliningrad oblast could be given back to Germany. The book uses the term a "Moscow-Berlin axis".[1]
    -France should be encouraged to form a "Franco-German bloc" with Germany. Both countries have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition"
.[1]
    -United Kingdom should be cut off from Europe.[1]
    -Finland should be absorbed into Russia. Southern Finland will be combined with the Republic of Karelia and northern Finland will be "donated to Murmansk Oblast".[1]
    -Estonia should be given to Germany's sphere of influence.[1]
    -Latvia and Lithuania should be given a "special status" in the Eurasian-Russian sphere.[1]
    -Poland should be granted a "special status" in the Eurasian sphere.[1]
    -Romania, Macedonia, "Serbian Bosnia" and Greece - "orthodox collectivist East" - will unite with the "Moscow the Third Rome" and reject the "rational-individualistic West".[1]
    -Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is sanitary cordon, which would be inadmissible.[1]

In the Middle East and Central Asia:

    -The book stresses the "continental Russian-Islamic alliance" which lies "at the foundation of anti-Atlanticist strategy". The alliance is based on the "traditional character of Russian and Islamic civilization".
    -Iran is a key ally. The book uses the term "Moscow-Tehran axis".[1]
    -Armenia has a special role and will serve as a "strategic base" and it is necessary to create "the [subsidiary] axis Moscow-Erevan-Teheran". Armenians "are an Aryan people ... [like] the Iranians and the Kurds".[1]
    -Azerbaijan could be "split up" or given to Iran.[1]
    -Georgia should be dismembered. Abkhazia and "United Ossetia" (which includes Georgia's South Ossetia) will be incorporated into Russia. Georgia's independent policies are unacceptable.[1]
    -Russia needs to create "geopolitical shocks" within Turkey. These can be achieved by employing Kurds, Armenians and other minorities.[1]
    -The book regards the Caucasus as a Russian territory, including "the eastern and northern shores of the Caspian (the territories of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan)" and Central Asia (mentioning Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghistan and Tajikistan).[1]

In Asia:

    -China, which represents a danger to Russia, "must, to the maximum degree possible, be dismantled".[2] Russia should offer China help "in a southern direction – Indochina (except Vietnam), the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia".[1]
    -Russia should manipulate Japanese politics by offering the Kuril Islands to Japan and provoking anti-Americanism.[1]
    -Mongolia should be absorbed into Eurasia-Russia.[1]

The book emphasizes that Russia must spread Anti-Americanism everywhere: "the main ‘scapegoat’ will be precisely the U.S."

In the United States:

    -Russia should use its special forces within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism. For instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics."[1]

Obviously not all of it is being enacted (that we know of) but it's clear the general direction of Russian foreign policy is being heavily influenced by this philosophy.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 15, 2014, 09:47:52 PM
Also, what does everyone think of the idea of American forces setting up a "tripwire" in the case of a larger Russian invasion of the Ukraine? The idea is we would insert a line (or "wire") of paratroopers along the Dnieper. The idea is that we will be allowing Russia to take the Eastern half of Ukraine but making it to where if Russia wants to go further they have to attack American soldiers, thus automatically triggering a war.

Don't get me wrong they could break through this "wire" easily but by doing so they would be declaring war on NATO. The idea is the Russians will accept the gift (Eastern Ukraine & Crimea) and know better then to escalate.

That and I think the Administration could bypass Congress with this kind of maneuver. If the Russians attack it will trigger the War Powers Act. I highly doubt that Congress has the audacity to play funding games to prevent this.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: bullmoose88 on March 15, 2014, 09:53:12 PM
I'm really interested to see what China does from here on out...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 15, 2014, 10:33:17 PM
Also, what does everyone think of the idea of American forces setting up a "tripwire" in the case of a larger Russian invasion of the Ukraine? The idea is we would insert a line (or "wire") of paratroopers along the Dnieper. The idea is that we will be allowing Russia to take the Eastern half of Ukraine but making it to where if Russia wants to go further they have to attack American soldiers, thus automatically triggering a war.

Don't get me wrong they could break through this "wire" easily but by doing so they would be declaring war on NATO. The idea is the Russians will accept the gift (Eastern Ukraine & Crimea) and know better then to escalate.

That and I think the Administration could bypass Congress with this kind of maneuver. If the Russians attack it will trigger the War Powers Act. I highly doubt that Congress has the audacity to play funding games to prevent this.

That is a horrible idea that will blow up things to an unnecessary level. If Russia wants to play games with ethnic separatism, I saw we should hit back. I’m sure the people of Chechnya agree….(and yes, I know they are Islamists).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 15, 2014, 10:56:26 PM
That is a horrible idea that will blow up things to an unnecessary level. If Russia wants to play games with ethnic separatism, I saw we should hit back. I’m sure the people of Chechnya agree….(and yes, I know they are Islamists).

No it isn't. Things like this are why the Russians don't take Western leadership seriously.

If the Russians outright invaded Ukraine proper and NATO literally did nothing (substantial) to stop them then it will be hard for anyone to take the West seriously form now on. It will be made clear that the West simply doesn't have the basic strength of character to face down a major power.

The Russians will not attack the tripwire. They will accept the gift.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2014, 11:11:48 PM
The level of naivety of Westerners is sickening.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: bullmoose88 on March 15, 2014, 11:14:51 PM
The level of naivety of Westerners is sickening.

Do tell.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2014, 11:22:43 PM

Well, everyone here seems to assume than Putin is rational and mentally sane. I'm not sure at all of that.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: bullmoose88 on March 15, 2014, 11:31:49 PM

Well, everyone here seems to assume than Putin is rational and mentally sane. I'm not sure at all of that.

I think he's correct in inferring that the West will not shed blood over Ukraine because it is not obliged to do so.  The sane/rational part will come into play if he decides to use the Putin doctrine to step into the territory of a nato member.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on March 15, 2014, 11:34:58 PM

Well, everyone here seems to assume than Putin is rational and mentally sane. I'm not sure at all of that.

Well everyone here seems to assume Kim Jong Un is rational and mentally sane.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 16, 2014, 05:31:08 AM
I'd say Putin is mentally sane. Maybe narrow-minded depending on how you look at it.

As I indicated a couple of pages ago, as an ex-KGB colonel he places too much emphasis on raw political and military power while seemingly laughing about "soft power". Sure, he's gonna ensure that Crimea and the port of Sevastopol never fall into NATO hands, but at the same time he's about to wreck his country's economy (not to mention his country's image) in the process.

Yesterday's peace demonstrations in Moscow show that at least part of his own population (even though it may be only a vocal minority) begins to see him as a Russian version of Dubya.  Well, maybe Cheney rather than Dubya, since Putin is probably more intelligent as well as more cynical. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 16, 2014, 05:06:17 PM
95.5 percent for union with Russia. Most impressive.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: IceSpear on March 16, 2014, 05:14:55 PM
95.5 percent for union with Russia. Most impressive.

Almost as impressive as Kim Jong Un's recent re-election.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 16, 2014, 05:52:14 PM
The everyday life on Crimea...


()


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 16, 2014, 09:30:40 PM
95.5 percent for union with Russia. Most impressive.
Was there a boycott?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 16, 2014, 10:19:15 PM
Guys, what about Sevastopol status? Sevastopol was not a part of the Crimean Republic.

95.5 percent for union with Russia. Most impressive.
Was there a boycott?

Leader of the Crimean Tatars claims, 99% of them boycotted the vote. Meanwhile, the Crimea Premier says, 40% did vote.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 16, 2014, 10:54:42 PM
Sevastopol held a referendum along with the rest of Crimea IIRC.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 16, 2014, 11:22:22 PM
Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.


Considering your amazing grasp on reality, I'm actually relieved to heard that.

I am afraid, you are playing an ostrich here, hiding from reality.

Today, they are telling me, Russian TV was broadcasting details about how Russia could completely nuke the US off the face of the Earth (I cannot force myself to watch, so I am reduced to saying "they are telling me").  The rapidity with which hysterical fascism becomes the new Russian norm is shocking. Weimar Russia is over, I am afraid.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 16, 2014, 11:26:27 PM
This was, I remind you, a referendum without a voter roll, with anybody - including "visitors" from Russia - allowed to vote, and without anything resembling an independent electoral authority in charge.  Who cares about boycott-shmoycott. With these rules, I could guarantee that everyone of you (and your significant others, if any) would be recorded as voting in a referendum on your own castration - with no opposing votes recorded in your polling place, of course.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 16, 2014, 11:37:08 PM
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-russia-kiselyov-idINDEEA2G01G20140317 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-russia-kiselyov-idINDEEA2G01G20140317)
Russian Journalist and Television Presenter Dimitry Kiselyov basically went North Korea on the world stating that
Quote
Russia is the only country in the world that is realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash

Quote
Behind him was a backdrop of a mushroom cloud following a nuclear blast.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on March 17, 2014, 04:15:27 AM
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-russia-kiselyov-idINDEEA2G01G20140317 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-russia-kiselyov-idINDEEA2G01G20140317)
Russian Journalist and Television Presenter Dimitry Kiselyov basically went North Korea on the world stating that
Quote
Russia is the only country in the world that is realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash

Quote
Behind him was a backdrop of a mushroom cloud following a nuclear blast.

He just turned his job into radioactive ash.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 17, 2014, 04:48:24 AM
Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.


Considering your amazing grasp on reality, I'm actually relieved to heard that.

I am afraid, you are playing an ostrich here, hiding from reality.

Today, they are telling me, Russian TV was broadcasting details about how Russia could completely nuke the US off the face of the Earth (I cannot force myself to watch, so I am reduced to saying "they are telling me").  The rapidity with which hysterical fascism becomes the new Russian norm is shocking. Weimar Russia is over, I am afraid.

I'm surprised such a smart guy like you suddenly cannot go beyond narrow, cliche comparisons.

I don't know what exactly are you getting from this, but I hope it feels good.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 17, 2014, 05:19:43 AM
During a press conference, the Chinese deputy foreign minister refused to answer the question whether his government recognizes the Crimean referendum and its result as legitimate.

Hahahahahaha, wouldn't want to see a secession referendum on Taiwan, right? :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 17, 2014, 06:00:21 AM
The Ukrainian defence minister has announced that the Ukrainian military forces which are currently stationed on Crimea will remain on Crimea.

Meanwhile, Putin plans to adress both chambers of Russian parliament tomorrow at noon.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 17, 2014, 09:34:21 AM
Obama to speak at 10:45 AM.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 17, 2014, 01:03:20 PM
So, the current situation is that the Russians had agreed to not take any measures against Ukrainian troops on Crimea until March 21. What happens on March 22 is anybody's guess.

It seems very unlikely that Ukraine is simply gonna withdraw them. So, from a Russian point of view, the options are as follows:

1) Attack and forcibly withdraw them.
2) Continue to besiege them until they run out of supplies and surrender.
3) Recognize the independence of Crimea, but postpone its admission to the Russian Federation  until the issue of Ukrainian troops is resolved.

My bet would on no. 2 at this point.

I guess there's also a slight possibility that if the Ukrainians are convinced that the Russians are about to attack that they're become desperate enough to try to launch a preemptive strike first.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 17, 2014, 01:41:03 PM
Russia has recognized Crimea. (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-signs-decree-recognising-crimea-182136835.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 17, 2014, 03:25:50 PM
Russian sanctions will include Durbin and Nuland, possibly Menendez and Corker. (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/17/russia-will-sanction-u-s-officials.html) Again, still mild stuff.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 17, 2014, 04:26:51 PM
Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.


Considering your amazing grasp on reality, I'm actually relieved to heard that.

I am afraid, you are playing an ostrich here, hiding from reality.

Today, they are telling me, Russian TV was broadcasting details about how Russia could completely nuke the US off the face of the Earth (I cannot force myself to watch, so I am reduced to saying "they are telling me").  The rapidity with which hysterical fascism becomes the new Russian norm is shocking. Weimar Russia is over, I am afraid.

I'm surprised such a smart guy like you suddenly cannot go beyond narrow, cliche comparisons.

I don't know what exactly are you getting from this, but I hope it feels good.

That is what's happening when life starts imitating narrow cliche comparisons.

And, trust me, it feels - and is - awful.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Angel of Death on March 17, 2014, 06:30:02 PM
If Ukraine proper were to be split in two, what city is most likely to become capital of the eastern part?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 17, 2014, 06:31:34 PM
If Ukraine proper were to be split in two, what city is most likely to become capital of the eastern part?

If that happens, Moscow.

Within the terms of the question, Donetsk seems likelier than any other options.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Blue3 on March 17, 2014, 06:35:48 PM
So... Crimea votes to join Russia, so Russia recognizes Crimea as an independent nation? Confused...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 17, 2014, 06:37:56 PM
So... Crimea votes to join Russia, so Russia recognizes Crimea as an independent nation? Confused...

It would be untoward for Russia to unilaterally annex part of a foreign state; instead, it is opting to grant the request of independent Crimea to join the Russian Federation.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Joshgreen on March 17, 2014, 09:14:54 PM
Time to send in ground troops, (preferably Austrian) which should remind the locals of their history. ;)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 17, 2014, 09:24:01 PM
Russian puppet states really dominate this list.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition

Excluding UN members and those 4 non UN members that have more than a few UN members recognize them (Palestine, Kosovo, Taiwan, Sahrawi), 5 out of 7 are Russian puppets.

Russian puppets:
Nagorno-Karabakh
Transnistria
Abkhazia
Crimea
South Ossetia

Others:
Somalialand
Northern Cyprus
 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 17, 2014, 09:39:08 PM
If Ukraine proper were to be split in two, what city is most likely to become capital of the eastern part?

Moscow.

The governor would be in Kharkiv, probably.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 17, 2014, 09:40:08 PM
If Ukraine proper were to be split in two, what city is most likely to become capital of the eastern part?

If that happens, Moscow.

Within the terms of the question, Donetsk seems likelier than any other options.

Of the eastern cities, Kharkiv is, unquestionably, the most important. In fact, it was briefly the capital of Soviet Ukraine at one point.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 17, 2014, 09:41:28 PM
Russian puppet states really dominate this list.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition

Excluding UN members and those 4 non UN members that have more than a few UN members recognize them (Palestine, Kosovo, Taiwan, Sahrawi), 5 out of 7 are Russian puppets.

Russian puppets:
Nagorno-Karabakh
Transnistria
Abkhazia
Crimea
South Ossetia

Others:
Somalialand
Northern Cyprus
 


Nagorny Karabakh is not a Russian puppet at all. It is not even quite an Armenian puppet, really - in any case, whatever it is, it is Armenian, not Russian.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 18, 2014, 07:17:40 AM
Will Putin soon address the crowds from a balcony in Sevastopol?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 18, 2014, 08:43:31 AM
Putin's speech from today sounded as if he just relaunched the Cold War.

Welcome back to 1948. :P The more things change, the more they stay the same, huh?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 18, 2014, 09:03:53 AM
Will Putin soon address the crowds from a balcony in Sevastopol?

Once they deport the Tartars, I guess.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 18, 2014, 10:04:19 AM
Russia Today: "Activists" block Ukrainian military from reaching Russian border

Quote
Dozens of volunteers from the Donbas Region in eastern Ukraine have been setting up checkpoints to prevent Ukrainian military personnel from reaching the Russian border, one of the organizers of the movement told RT.

The unarmed activists are being coordinated by a local group called People’s Militia of Donbas and there are currently over 20 posts that have been set up on various roads in the region, the group’s Deputy Director Sergey Tsyplakov told RT.

The purpose of the posts is to prevent the Ukrainian military equipment from reaching the eastern border with Russia, averting further escalation of the conflict.

“There are 10 to 30 people at each post and they continuously switch with one another,” Tsyplakov said.

The majority of the checkpoints have been set up alongside the police posts and “the road police is helping out.” But, in more isolated spots there are more volunteers taking initiative. “People are helping around with tents and firewood,” Tsyplakov added.

People call in to donate or they bring supplies themselves to various posts, while the People’s Militia of Donbas just provides logistical support.

“People are volunteering to help out with delivering food and supplies to keep the posts going … We coordinate and send people out to different posts,” Tsyplakov stated.

“The first one out there were just the general public who saw military equipment coming, so they blocked rivers used to transport military equipment … They blocked railways used to bring in military supplies as well,” he said.

Tsyplakov said that volunteers at the posts want to avoid escalation of violence and are trying to avoid bloodshed. “These are peaceful citizens … They don't want war,” he told RT.

He added that military equipment was seen moving towards the eastern border with Russia and the dispersal of military supplies. “Artillery, tanks, anti-missile defense systems were all spotted being transported from Kiev.”

Earlier on Sunday there were reports of Ukrainian heavy military equipment, including armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles heading towards the Russian border.

Residents have uploaded various videos of the heavy military equipment moving through eastern Ukrainian regions.

Last week activists from Luhansk and Donetsk Regions blocked the columns carrying the military equipment. Near Donetsk, the People’s Militia of Donbas forced the Ukrainian troops to turn around, while in Luhansk the activists stopped the columns, setting up a 24-hour patrol guarding the military equipment and preventing its further movement.

Meanwhile Kiev-appointed head of Ukraine’s Donetsk regional administration Sergey Taruta and his brother used their own finances to dig a trench along the border with Russia to reportedly prevent a possible Russian military assault.

http://rt.com/news/checkpoints-donbas-ukraine-military-458/

I suppose this is what was meant by "reading between the lines". Disturbing if it suggests that Russian forces are already deep in the rest of Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 18, 2014, 10:12:25 AM
"Mass rally in Red Square" (on a Tuesday!) to celebrate Crimea's "return" to Russia.

()

Lots of flags of the "Rodina" party and the old white-yellow-black flag used by right-wingers. Interesting combination...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 18, 2014, 10:56:14 AM
A Ukrainian military base in Simforopol is reportedly under attack.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 18, 2014, 11:07:38 AM
Quote
CNN team at Ukraine military's 13th topographical/navigation base in Simferopol report no active confrontation now,ambulance just drove in

...

Ukraine Defense Ministry:armed,masked men fired guns at Ukraine navigational base in Semfiropol,Crimea. At least 1 Ukrainian officer wounded

https://twitter.com/IvanCNN


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 18, 2014, 11:14:34 AM
Interfax-Ukraine reports one Ukrainian soldier killed.

Ukrainian premier confirms attack.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 18, 2014, 11:22:46 AM
"Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen and this is a war crime without any expiry under a statute of limitations." - Ukrainian prime minister Arseny Yatseniuk.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 18, 2014, 11:32:16 AM
I'm trying to say something that isn't trite and unhelpful, but the only thing that comes to mind is "IT'S HAPPENING!". I'm interested in seeing what happens with regards to these claims of Eastern "volunteer militias".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on March 18, 2014, 12:15:46 PM
"Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen and this is a war crime without any expiry under a statute of limitations." - Ukrainian prime minister Arseny Yatseniuk.

The thing with the Ukrainians is that they talk very tough, but everyone knows that they've got a two pair and Russia has an inside straight. They can't attack the Russian forces in Crimea without bringing down a devastating Russian response.

That said, they don't really need to; they can justifiably play the victim.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on March 18, 2014, 12:30:19 PM
Trans-Dniester now wants in, logistically that would be harder obviously without anschluss of Odessa oblast first.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26627236


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 18, 2014, 12:35:35 PM
Trans-Dniester now wants in, logistically that would be harder obviously without anschluss of Odessa oblast first.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26627236

Not the first time Transnistria expressed such interest.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 18, 2014, 01:16:28 PM
Sevastopol and Tavriya Simferopol plan to join the Russian Premier League. (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.newsru.com/sport/18mar2014/tavria.html&usg=ALkJrhiJC_1prNkKwnEYiyllM0KL5bD9wg)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 18, 2014, 01:22:49 PM
If Ukraine proper were to be split in two, what city is most likely to become capital of the eastern part?

If that happens, Moscow.

Within the terms of the question, Donetsk seems likelier than any other options.

Of the eastern cities, Kharkiv is, unquestionably, the most important. In fact, it was briefly the capital of Soviet Ukraine at one point.

I didn't know that. Interesting.

I'm not sure why I assumed Donetsk would be more important; possibly because it's got a lot of exposure lately in the sources that I've been reading.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 18, 2014, 01:56:19 PM
Sevastopol and Tavriya Simferopol plan to join the Russian Premier League. (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.newsru.com/sport/18mar2014/tavria.html&usg=ALkJrhiJC_1prNkKwnEYiyllM0KL5bD9wg)

I sincerely hope that once they do, Russia is expelled from the UEFA.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 18, 2014, 05:56:45 PM
Nagorny Karabakh is not a Russian puppet at all. It is not even quite an Armenian puppet, really - in any case, whatever it is, it is Armenian, not Russian.
While I agree it's not a Russian pupet at all, I think we can all safely say it is an Armenian puppet though.

Oh, and y'all : how did Hawaii get incorporated to the US in 1898 again ? How was that towards international law ?...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 18, 2014, 06:03:13 PM
Nagorny Karabakh is not a Russian puppet at all. It is not even quite an Armenian puppet, really - in any case, whatever it is, it is Armenian, not Russian.
While I agree it's not a Russian pupet at all, I think we can all safely say it is an Armenian puppet though.

Oh, and y'all : how did Hawaii get incorporated to the US in 1898 again ? How was that towards international law ?...
Not that Hawaii was any less justified, but international law was meaningless back then, and even still, Russia annexed their way across Asia and Eastern Europe before and after the revolution.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 18, 2014, 06:52:01 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on March 18, 2014, 07:35:54 PM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 18, 2014, 09:26:36 PM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...
Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on March 18, 2014, 10:21:26 PM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...
Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: IceSpear on March 18, 2014, 11:16:52 PM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...
Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on March 18, 2014, 11:58:23 PM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...
Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.

please let's not make this another hack thread about US politics, k?

back on topic, is there no representation in the Crimean parliament for non-Russian ethnics?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 19, 2014, 12:23:39 AM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...
Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.

please let's not make this another hack thread about US politics, k?

back on topic, is there no representation in the Crimean parliament for non-Russian ethnics?

There is no assigned ethnic representation.  Back in the 2010 Crimean elections, the Party of Regions won 80 of the 100 seats and Strong Ukraine which later merged into it won 2 seats. The Russian Unity Party (which advocated reunification with Russia) won another 3 seats and the Communists 5 seats.  Qurultai-Rukh, which is a Tatar ethnic party and the Union Party (which advocated closer EU ties but also adding Russian as a second official language for Ukraine) each won 5 seats.  So even without the latest round of shenanigans there was at least a 90-10 split in favor of Russia assuming everyone in the Party of Regions has gone along with the Anchluss.  Possibly 95-5 depending upon how the Union Party decided to go on the Anchluss issue.

So the strong support in the Crimean Parliament for the Anchluss is not really due to opponents being excluded.  There hasn't been a need for that as there effectively was no opposition, even before all this started.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 19, 2014, 12:29:09 AM
Incidentally, the Crimea parliament was elected from 50 single-member constituencies, and another 50 elected by proportional representation with an apparent 2 member threshold.  The PR was only for the 50 seats, not for topping off and evening out the results of the constituency votes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 01:04:13 AM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...
Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.

please let's not make this another hack thread about US politics, k?

back on topic, is there no representation in the Crimean parliament for non-Russian ethnics?

The non-Russian MPs were barred from the Crimean Parliament the first day that the "unknown" armed men appeared on the peninsula. At this point they, probably, do not even want to attend, in any case.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 01:09:43 AM
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...
Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.

please let's not make this another hack thread about US politics, k?

back on topic, is there no representation in the Crimean parliament for non-Russian ethnics?

There is no assigned ethnic representation.  Back in the 2010 Crimean elections, the Party of Regions won 80 of the 100 seats and Strong Ukraine which later merged into it won 2 seats. The Russian Unity Party (which advocated reunification with Russia) won another 3 seats and the Communists 5 seats.  Qurultai-Rukh, which is a Tatar ethnic party and the Union Party (which advocated closer EU ties but also adding Russian as a second official language for Ukraine) each won 5 seats.  So even without the latest round of shenanigans there was at least a 90-10 split in favor of Russia assuming everyone in the Party of Regions has gone along with the Anchluss.  Possibly 95-5 depending upon how the Union Party decided to go on the Anchluss issue.

So the strong support in the Crimean Parliament for the Anchluss is not really due to opponents being excluded.  There hasn't been a need for that as there effectively was no opposition, even before all this started.

The Party of Regions has NEVER been a pro-Russian party, not even in Crimea. It is a "pro-Eastern" party, but not pro-Russian - and, definitely, not pro-annexation (if it were, it would not have existed elsewhere in Ukraine as a major force). The pro-Russian party had just a few seats before the current events. Though some of the PR MPs at a personal level were pro-Russian, there is no reason to believe they were united on this beforehand. In fact, the original decisions (to do the referendum, etc.) were adopted by 60+ MPs, with the rest simply not attending. In fact, I am not even certain if all of those 60+ were present - there were no observers in the room. Of course, by now, some of the original recusants are, probably, collaborating - they are bound to believe Russia won, and would want to be with the winner.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 19, 2014, 09:14:05 AM
http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-s-defence-minister-denied-entry-to-crimea-1.1735755 (http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-s-defence-minister-denied-entry-to-crimea-1.1735755)

Ukrainian Naval Headquarters in Crimea were stormed by a combination of pro-Russian militiamen and Cossacks. Rear Admiral Serigei Haiduk has been detained by Crimean authorities.

Defense Minister Ihor Tenyuk, and deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Yarema, were barred from entering Crimea in their bid to avert more extreme hostilities.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 19, 2014, 10:04:19 AM
It looks like Crimea is going to retain it's republic status within Russia. Will it be the only republic with a Russian majority?

Also, Sevastopol is going to be a federal city, which puts it on par with Moscow and St. Petersburg.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 10:27:17 AM
It looks like Crimea is going to retain it's republic status within Russia. Will it be the only republic with a Russian majority?

Also, Sevastopol is going to be a federal city, which puts it on par with Moscow and St. Petersburg.

No, about half the Republics have a Russian majority. Say, Karelia does.

It is likely to be the only Republic without a native minority: Tartars are evacuating their families.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on March 19, 2014, 10:55:09 AM
Putin's approval rating in Russia meanwhile soars to above 60% from below 50% before the Ukraine situation.

Time for Obama to do the same and annex Canada ?

;)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 19, 2014, 11:03:05 AM
Baja California sounds like a good alternative as well.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 19, 2014, 01:28:49 PM
FIBA has announced the relocation of EuroBasket 2015 from the Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on March 19, 2014, 01:36:03 PM
According to the Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/19/ukrainian-mp-assaults-television-chief-pro-russian-miroshnichenko-panteleymonov), a Svoboda member of the Ukrainian parliament was a member of a group of men who stormed in to the office of a head of a TV station, physically attacked him and forced him to write a resignation letter for being too pro-Russian.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 02:12:48 PM
Ukraine is evacuating Crimea, withdrawing from CIS and introducing visas for Russians.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 02:13:29 PM
FIBA has announced the relocation of EuroBasket 2015 from the Ukraine.

And FIFA has not yet relocated the World Cup from Russia in 2018. This is obscene.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 19, 2014, 02:23:05 PM
Er... it's FIFA.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 19, 2014, 02:28:08 PM
Isn't there also going to be a World Cup in one of the Gulf emirates some time soon? If so, is that really any better?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 19, 2014, 02:29:07 PM
Qatar 2022. And, well, no. As we type stadiums are being built by slaves.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 19, 2014, 02:56:09 PM
Dear God.  (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 19, 2014, 03:08:25 PM
...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Incipimus iterum on March 19, 2014, 03:09:06 PM
wow....


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 19, 2014, 03:11:13 PM
Well crap.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Sol on March 19, 2014, 03:15:36 PM
I suspect this is just further maneuvering, to put pressure on Estonia to toe the line with Moscow.

Not that they should or will, of course. And Russia is aware of NATO...



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 19, 2014, 03:20:20 PM
Unless Putin puts Article 5 in the same category as the Budapest Memorandum.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 19, 2014, 05:03:34 PM
Guys, Estonia is in NATO. This is just making noises.

Ukraine is still the place of actual events.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 19, 2014, 05:05:07 PM
Guys, Estonia is in NATO. This is just making noises.

Ukraine is still the place of actual events.
^^^^^


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 06:46:13 PM
Unless Putin puts Article 5 in the same category as the Budapest Memorandum.

Does he have any reason to believe it isn´t? Has it ever been tested? What are they going to do: brick Medvedev´s iPhone?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 06:46:49 PM
Guys, Estonia is in NATO. This is just making noises.

Ukraine is still the place of actual events.

It is in NATO, indeed. So, you are very confident they will fight for Narva?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 19, 2014, 06:47:24 PM
I suspect this is just further maneuvering, to put pressure on Estonia to toe the line with Moscow.

Not that they should or will, of course. And Russia is aware of NATO...



It is increasingly not obvious, what is it that comrade P. is aware of.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 19, 2014, 06:47:59 PM
I suspect this is just further maneuvering, to put pressure on Estonia to toe the line with Moscow.

Not that they should or will, of course. And Russia is aware of NATO...



It is increasingly not obvious, what is it that comrade P. is aware of.

They won't, Putin has nukes...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 20, 2014, 09:16:47 AM
This comment on Estonia is just what it is : Putin trolling the West hard saying "I did f[inks] you in the ass hard, didn't I ?"

Now back to where things happen, as Kalwejt said.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 20, 2014, 11:30:56 AM
I'm quite amused with the Russian pulling out a Kosovo precedent (which they opposed so strongly), considering their action was pretty much a naked annexation. The whole "declaration of independence for a few hours before merging" wouldn't fool a second grader.

And that's coming from someone who was highly sceptical about the way Kosovo seceded.

This comment on Estonia is just what it is : Putin trolling the West hard saying "I did f[inks] you in the ass hard, didn't I ?"

Yep. It's not like the Russians weren't making a loud noises about Estonia before.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 20, 2014, 12:53:11 PM
Russia's legal case in the declaration of independence (which lasted all of a day) is dubious at best, yes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MalaspinaGold on March 20, 2014, 02:11:02 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/us/politics/us-expanding-sanctions-against-russia-over-ukraine.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/us/politics/us-expanding-sanctions-against-russia-over-ukraine.html?_r=0)

US places sanctions on more top Russian aides, and also Bank Rossiya. Rumors are that the energy sector could be next.

Putin retaliates with sanctions on Harry Reid, John Boehner, John McCain and six other Americans.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: © tweed on March 20, 2014, 02:42:41 PM
Qatar 2022. And, well, no. As we type stadiums are being built by slaves.

an article broke the other day that between 900-1200 'migrant workers' have already died on World Cup-related construction projects.  if we extrapolate the death toll should reach 4000 by 2022.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on March 20, 2014, 02:51:34 PM
Russia still doesn't recognize kosovo, I am not sure how you can use something for precedent that you on paper still oppose.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: John Dibble on March 20, 2014, 02:53:07 PM
Russia still doesn't recognize kosovo, I am not sure how you can use something for precedent that you on paper still oppose.

Of course you can, provided you don't care about being a hypocrite. Do you think Putin cares?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 20, 2014, 03:26:44 PM
Sanctions on John McCain!!1 ::)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on March 20, 2014, 04:25:52 PM
Russia still doesn't recognize kosovo, I am not sure how you can use something for precedent that you on paper still oppose.

Of course you can, provided you don't care about being a hypocrite. Do you think Putin cares?
Well no. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ilikeverin on March 20, 2014, 05:33:18 PM
Well, yesterday was a good day to leave Estonia!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 21, 2014, 09:45:40 AM
France is ready to send fighters and AWACS to Poland and Baltic countries.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ObserverIE on March 21, 2014, 08:17:47 PM
It looks like Crimea is going to retain it's republic status within Russia. Will it be the only republic with a Russian majority?

Also, Sevastopol is going to be a federal city, which puts it on par with Moscow and St. Petersburg.

No, about half the Republics have a Russian majority. Say, Karelia does.

It is likely to be the only Republic without a native minority: Tartars are evacuating their families.

"Ukraine’s breakaway region of Crimea will ask Tatars to vacate part of the land where they now live in exchange for new territory elsewhere in the region, a top Crimean government official said Tuesday."

"Part".

"Elsewhere".

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html (http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 21, 2014, 09:47:46 PM
It looks like Crimea is going to retain it's republic status within Russia. Will it be the only republic with a Russian majority?

Also, Sevastopol is going to be a federal city, which puts it on par with Moscow and St. Petersburg.

No, about half the Republics have a Russian majority. Say, Karelia does.

It is likely to be the only Republic without a native minority: Tartars are evacuating their families.

"Ukraine’s breakaway region of Crimea will ask Tatars to vacate part of the land where they now live in exchange for new territory elsewhere in the region, a top Crimean government official said Tuesday."

"Part".

"Elsewhere".

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html (http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html)

A lot of Crimean families have already moved or are moving to the mainland (both Tartar and Slavic). Actually, it seems like Lviv is going to bear the brunt of resettlement - voluntarily.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 21, 2014, 09:59:43 PM
"Crimean Tatar squatters"

"Illegal immigrant Bengalis"

"Foreign Ethiopian oppressors"

etc, etc.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on March 22, 2014, 12:06:20 AM
It looks like Crimea is going to retain it's republic status within Russia. Will it be the only republic with a Russian majority?

Also, Sevastopol is going to be a federal city, which puts it on par with Moscow and St. Petersburg.

No, about half the Republics have a Russian majority. Say, Karelia does.

It is likely to be the only Republic without a native minority: Tartars are evacuating their families.

"Ukraine’s breakaway region of Crimea will ask Tatars to vacate part of the land where they now live in exchange for new territory elsewhere in the region, a top Crimean government official said Tuesday."

"Part".

"Elsewhere".

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html (http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html)

Quote
We have asked the Crimean Tatars to vacate part of their land, which is required for social needs,”

What's this "social needs" stuff?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 22, 2014, 10:35:21 AM
And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 22, 2014, 11:20:30 AM
gall


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on March 22, 2014, 11:41:54 AM
And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".

Putin do look a bit like Vercingoterix.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 22, 2014, 11:42:52 AM
And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".

Putin do look a bit like Vercingoterix.

But surely he was taller?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 22, 2014, 12:44:14 PM
And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".

Putin do look a bit like Vercingoterix.

But surely he was taller?

Vercingoterix, not Asterix.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 22, 2014, 01:06:10 PM
And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".

Putin do look a bit like Vercingoterix.

But surely he was taller?

Vercingoterix, not Asterix.

Asterix would be more Putin's height, I think.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on March 22, 2014, 01:18:32 PM
perhaps Putin wants to divide Ukraine into three parts.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RodPresident on March 22, 2014, 02:46:53 PM
I'm at Ukraine now in a hotel ery close to Maidan. Barricades remain and lot of men in camouflaged uniform. Many people selling souvenir and lot of comparisons of Putin and Russians with nazis.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on March 22, 2014, 06:19:32 PM
Looks like the last Ukrainian base has fallen. I wonder what will happen next.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 22, 2014, 07:38:22 PM
perhaps Putin wants to divide Ukraine into three parts.

I appreciate this post.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 22, 2014, 09:56:14 PM
Looks like the last Ukrainian base has fallen. I wonder what will happen next.

In Crimea? Nothing. Well, a few tens of thousands refugees will resettle on the mainland, but who cares.

Next act will be elsewhere.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: retromike22 on March 23, 2014, 12:20:29 AM
Two Ukrainian solders married each other right before their base was taken over by Russian soldiers.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/03/ukrainian-soldiers-tie-the-knot-just-before-crimean-airbase-stormed/ (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/03/ukrainian-soldiers-tie-the-knot-just-before-crimean-airbase-stormed/)

()


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on March 23, 2014, 08:22:38 PM
Eastern Ukrainians rally for secession. (http://=http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/22/ukraines-east-rallies-for-secession-referendum/)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 23, 2014, 10:04:09 PM
Eastern Ukrainians rally for secession. (http://=http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/22/ukraines-east-rallies-for-secession-referendum/)

I hear that if you ask the demonstrators the time, quite a few have it exactly two hours too fast. A remarkable technical malfunction, I say.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 24, 2014, 08:53:24 AM
Living at the moment quite close to the eastern border, I can see and hear NATO fighters flying every day. 

Eastern Ukrainians rally for secession. (http://=http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/22/ukraines-east-rallies-for-secession-referendum/)

Well, that'd be much harder than pulling Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 24, 2014, 05:32:47 PM
G8 has officially moved its annual summit in June from Sochi to Brussels, and they un-invited Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 24, 2014, 06:31:58 PM
At first glance it seems odd that Crimea will be moving their clocks ahead two hours.  Granted, the change in time zone is one more way of emphasizing they are not Ukraine, but a change of one hour would accomplish that.  However Russia for some weird reason is on permanent daylight savings, so if they only shifted one hour they'd be sharing the same time as Ukraine during the summer.  So instead of having a time zone close to solar time, the Crimea will be close to two hours ahead because of stupid politics that will keep them from having a reasonable time zone.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: on March 24, 2014, 09:02:44 PM
Putin do look a bit like Vercingoterix.

Vercingetorix!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on March 24, 2014, 11:13:09 PM
Tymoshenko advocated mass slaughter of Russians in leaked phone call. (http://rt.com/news/tymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917/)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 25, 2014, 12:01:40 AM
Tymoshenko advocated mass slaughter of Russians in leaked phone call. (http://rt.com/news/tymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917/)

Quote from: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26725659
Meanwhile, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has denied the authenticity of a taped conversation in which she allegedly called for Russia to be turned into "scorched earth" and for ethnic Russians in Ukraine to be killed.

Ms Tymoshenko said the recording, which has featured prominently on Russian news reports, was produced by Russia's security services.

She admitted speaking by telephone with Nestor Shufrych, a member of Ukraine's parliament and a close ally, but she said her words had been edited to discredit her.

In any case, even if it weren't a Russian fake, Yulia ain't in power.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Gustaf on March 25, 2014, 09:09:30 AM
Can people please posting RT-links? It's not a credible source.

And yeah, dramatic event today. Can't say I feel sad to see the guy go though. Also seems to dispel this notion that the Ukrainian government is fascist or propped up by these people.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RodPresident on March 25, 2014, 10:53:38 AM
Government is purging Right Sector earlier than expected. May be they fear that their actions are counterproductive. Another reason are elections. They fear Yarosh and because many say that.Poroshenko sponsor it, Baktvischina, Svoboda and.UDAR want to get rid of a enemy.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on March 25, 2014, 11:14:27 AM
Also seems to dispel this notion that the Ukrainian government is fascist or propped up by these people.

Maybe...but then again, Svoboda still is very much a part of the government. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 25, 2014, 11:42:45 AM
Also seems to dispel this notion that the Ukrainian government is fascist or propped up by these people.

Maybe...but then again, Svoboda still is very much a part of the government. :P

In the cabinet, they control the ministries of environment and agriculture... and are probably pushing for a fascist agriculture policy for Ukraine or something.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 25, 2014, 08:11:38 PM
Tymoshenko advocated mass slaughter of Russians in leaked phone call. (http://rt.com/news/tymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917/)

Quote from: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26725659
Meanwhile, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has denied the authenticity of a taped conversation in which she allegedly called for Russia to be turned into "scorched earth" and for ethnic Russians in Ukraine to be killed.

Ms Tymoshenko said the recording, which has featured prominently on Russian news reports, was produced by Russia's security services.

She admitted speaking by telephone with Nestor Shufrych, a member of Ukraine's parliament and a close ally, but she said her words had been edited to discredit her.

In any case, even if it weren't a Russian fake, Yulia ain't in power.

This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 26, 2014, 12:06:43 AM
This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.

It's not intended to convince us but the Russian people.  The more I read about this, the more I'm convinced that this was planned to distract the Russian people from their faltering economy.  Not that it was faltering badly, but Putin has good reason to be concerned about what even a slight falter might do to his popularity.  Now the economic problems can be blamed on the West, so I don't see Tsar Vladimir V being persuadable by the sanctions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on March 26, 2014, 12:13:06 AM
This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.

It's not intended to convince us but the Russian people.  The more I read about this, the more I'm convinced that this was planned to distract the Russian people from their faltering economy.  Not that it was faltering badly, but Putin has good reason to be concerned about what even a slight falter might do to his popularity.  Now the economic problems can be blamed on the West, so I don't see Tsar Vladimir V being persuadable by the sanctions.
That's Tsar Vladimir IV: His Imperial Majesty doesn't recognize the usurper False Vladimir.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 26, 2014, 01:32:57 AM
This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.

It's not intended to convince us but the Russian people.  The more I read about this, the more I'm convinced that this was planned to distract the Russian people from their faltering economy.  Not that it was faltering badly, but Putin has good reason to be concerned about what even a slight falter might do to his popularity.  Now the economic problems can be blamed on the West, so I don't see Tsar Vladimir V being persuadable by the sanctions.
That's Tsar Vladimir IV: His Imperial Majesty doesn't recognize the usurper False Vladimir.

I wasn't counting Vladimir Cyrillovich Romanov as Vladimir IV, but Vladimir Lenin.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 26, 2014, 09:55:29 AM
Both in Kharkiv and in Odessa the pro-Russian crowds have been demonstrating at Polish consulates under the slogan: "Remember Katyn massacre". Beauty, isn't it? Almost as good as the Germans demonstrating near Israeli embassies in Prague and Warsaw chanting "remember Auschwitz" (in German)

And yes, I know what they the slogan-writers meant. But still...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 26, 2014, 12:35:40 PM
Both in Kharkiv and in Odessa the pro-Russian crowds have been demonstrating at Polish consulates under the slogan: "Remember Katyn massacre". Beauty, isn't it? Almost as good as the Germans demonstrating near Israeli embassies in Prague and Warsaw chanting "remember Auschwitz" (in German)

And yes, I know what they the slogan-writers meant. But still...

I don't get the use of strikethroughs here.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 26, 2014, 01:27:18 PM
He's using it as a way of showing a hypothetical equivalent.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: retromike22 on March 26, 2014, 02:03:35 PM
At first I thought this was an Onion article, but it isn't:

Russia has successfully annexed the Ukrainian Crimea and stormed its neighbor's naval bases there, but it may have seized its biggest prize this week -- an elite combat unit of trained dolphins.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/russia-ukraine-combat-dolphins (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/russia-ukraine-combat-dolphins)

My only question is: Were the dolphins seized, or did the dolphins consciously defect to Russia?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 26, 2014, 03:58:08 PM
He's using it as a way of showing a hypothetical equivalent.

That I under stand, the usage of sttiketrouhjys Idont


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on March 26, 2014, 04:32:48 PM
He's using it as a way of showing a hypothetical equivalent.

That I under stand, the usage of sttiketrouhjys Idont

http://www.nhs.uk/actfast/Pages/stroke.aspx (http://www.nhs.uk/actfast/Pages/stroke.aspx)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 27, 2014, 05:11:43 AM
I have a question : of the few countries that recognized the legitimacy of the referendum, I get why most of them did (eg : Venezuela, Syria etc.), but why in the world would Uganda do it ? Is there something I don't know ? Do they also have an irredentist region in a neighboring country that they would very much like to seize ?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on March 27, 2014, 05:22:07 AM
Also seems to dispel this notion that the Ukrainian government is fascist or propped up by these people.

Maybe...but then again, Svoboda still is very much a part of the government. :P

In the cabinet, they control the ministries of environment and agriculture... and are probably pushing for a fascist agriculture policy for Ukraine or something.
The EU would still sanction any other country where this happens (Austria and Hungary did not even need neo-nazis ministers to be sanctioned). I think the EU should have waited the elections and a new government without any neo-nazi at all before signing the association agreement.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on March 27, 2014, 07:52:05 AM
I have a question : of the few countries that recognized the legitimacy of the referendum, I get why most of them did (eg : Venezuela, Syria etc.), but why in the world would Uganda do it ? Is there something I don't know ? Do they also have an irredentist region in a neighboring country that they would very much like to seize ?

United in their struggle against homosexuality?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 27, 2014, 10:40:01 AM
The interim Ukrainian government just announced they were raising home gas prices 50% to make the IMF happy.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on March 27, 2014, 10:44:08 AM
The interim Ukrainian government just announced they were raising home gas prices 50% to make the IMF happy.

The neoliberal vultures are already descending upon poor Ukraine. Why is this not a surprise?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on March 27, 2014, 11:08:57 AM
This won't end well. At all.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 27, 2014, 11:10:32 AM
The interim Ukrainian government just announced they were raising home gas prices 50% to make the IMF happy.

So which backlash candidate is going to win in x years time?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on March 27, 2014, 11:24:29 AM
Afghanistan? Ah, we need to do something to them.

As for the gas, Congressional inaction strikes again. We should already be exporting gas to Ukraine, subsidised by seized Russian assets (which we've given them enough time to withdraw by now).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 27, 2014, 12:02:28 PM
The United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution supporting territorial integrity for Ukraine and declaring the Crimean referendum on March 16 invalid.

100 yes votes, 11 no votes, 58 abstentions.

The "no" votes were:

- Armenia
- Belarus
- Bolivia
- Cuba
- Nicaragua
- North Korea
- Russia
- Sudan
- Syria
- Venezuela
- Zimbabwe

China abstained for obvious reason. On one hand, they don't want to support the West. On the other hand, they don't want a precedent for a formal Taiwan secession.

Russia's ally Kazakhstan also abstained.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 27, 2014, 02:06:54 PM
At first glance it seems odd that Crimea will be moving their clocks ahead two hours.  Granted, the change in time zone is one more way of emphasizing they are not Ukraine, but a change of one hour would accomplish that.  However Russia for some weird reason is on permanent daylight savings, so if they only shifted one hour they'd be sharing the same time as Ukraine during the summer.  So instead of having a time zone close to solar time, the Crimea will be close to two hours ahead because of stupid politics that will keep them from having a reasonable time zone.

Russia (or at least western Russia) is on double summer time, isn't it? The first shift happened around when the USSR was formed and the second happened recently.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 27, 2014, 03:13:29 PM
40k Russian troops, including many of their best units, are on the Ukrainian border now.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 27, 2014, 03:27:02 PM
The United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution supporting territorial integrity for Ukraine and declaring the Crimean referendum on March 16 invalid.

100 yes votes, 11 no votes, 58 abstentions.

The "no" votes were:

- Armenia
- Belarus
- Bolivia
- Cuba
- Nicaragua
- North Korea
- Russia
- Sudan
- Syria
- Venezuela
- Zimbabwe

China abstained for obvious reason. On one hand, they don't want to support the West. On the other hand, they don't want a precedent for a formal Taiwan secession.

Russia's ally Kazakhstan also abstained.

Interesting that only 3 of the 6 members or candidates of the Eurasian Union voted no.  In addition to Kazakhstan, Eurasian Union candidate countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also abstained.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 27, 2014, 04:11:03 PM
At first glance it seems odd that Crimea will be moving their clocks ahead two hours.  Granted, the change in time zone is one more way of emphasizing they are not Ukraine, but a change of one hour would accomplish that.  However Russia for some weird reason is on permanent daylight savings, so if they only shifted one hour they'd be sharing the same time as Ukraine during the summer.  So instead of having a time zone close to solar time, the Crimea will be close to two hours ahead because of stupid politics that will keep them from having a reasonable time zone.

Russia (or at least western Russia) is on double summer time, isn't it? The first shift happened around when the USSR was formed and the second happened recently.

It's on permanent double time, summer and winter. Moscow Time is UTC+4 year round.  Arguably Moscow itself would naturally be UTC+2½, but half hour offsets aren't usually used, so you could make an argument that they are only on permanent summer time if you think UTC+3 is Moscow's "proper" time zone.  But both St. Petersburg and Sevastopol are properly UTC+2 and they are stuck using Moscow Time rather than adding another time zone.  Also Yekaterinburg Time is UTC+6 while by the sun it should be UTC+4, and similarly if you look at the rest of Russia as a whole it makes sense to speak of Russia being on permanent double time.

I can somewhat understand the logic of having overly broad time zones such as China's use of UTC+8 and India's use of UTC+5½ as universal national time zones despite spanning multiple time zones.  But the artificially advancing time all year that Russia does, especially to the extent Russia does, does not make sense.  (When you go fly from Vladivostok to Tokyo, you need to move your clock back 2 hours despite the fact that you flew southeast to get there.)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on March 27, 2014, 09:31:19 PM
The United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution supporting territorial integrity for Ukraine and declaring the Crimean referendum on March 16 invalid.

100 yes votes, 11 no votes, 58 abstentions.

The "no" votes were:

- Armenia
- Belarus
- Bolivia
- Cuba
- Nicaragua
- North Korea
- Russia
- Sudan
- Syria
- Venezuela
- Zimbabwe

China abstained for obvious reason. On one hand, they don't want to support the West. On the other hand, they don't want a precedent for a formal Taiwan secession.

Russia's ally Kazakhstan also abstained.

Interesting that only 3 of the 6 members or candidates of the Eurasian Union voted no.  In addition to Kazakhstan, Eurasian Union candidate countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also abstained.

Kyrgyzstan and Taijkistan (as well as Turkmenistan) simply did not vote.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on March 28, 2014, 10:44:26 PM
Yanukovich: Hold more Crimes-style referendums in Ukraine.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/28/obama-russia-couldhaveadditionalplansforukraine.html

Ukraine’s exiled President Viktor Yanukovich on Friday pushed for a vote to let each of the country's regions determine its own status — a call serving Moscow’s desire to turn Ukraine into a loosely knit federation.

The statement from Yanukovich – a longtime Moscow ally who fled to Russia in February after three months of anti-government protests forced him out – raised the threat of more unrest in Ukraine's Russian-speaking eastern provinces, where many resent the new, West-leaning Ukrainian government.

"As a president who is with you with all my thoughts and soul, I urge every sensible citizen of Ukraine: Don't give in to impostors! Demand a referendum on the status of each region within Ukraine," Yanukovich said in an address to the people of Ukraine.

Yanukovich made the remarks on the same day that U.S. President Barack Obama and his advisors warned that Russia may have “additional plans” for Ukraine, saying a Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border was out of the ordinary. Russian forces took over Ukraine’s Crimea region weeks ago, and Crimeans – many of them ethnic Russians – subsequently voted in a referendum to become part of the Russian Federation. 

Obama also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone Friday, urging the Russian leader to work out a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, according to a White House statement.

On Friday Obama was wrapping up a visit to Europe, where the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Japan and Canada warned Russia that it would face additional sanctions if it takes further action to destabilize Ukraine — and especially if Russian troops move into the eastern part of the country.

"You've seen a range of troops massing along that border under the guise of military exercises," Obama told CBS in an interview in Vatican City. "But these are not what Russia would normally be doing."


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 28, 2014, 10:53:34 PM
Yanik the traitorous puppet is still a traitorous puppet.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: CatoMinor on April 01, 2014, 01:40:17 PM
Oh dear...

Quote
On Tuesday evening Russian soldiers could be seen crossing the Russian-Estonian border and entering into the city of Narva. Through out the county of Ida-Viru, a largely Russian speaking region, towns have been raising the Russian flag, welcoming the soldiers. NATO, has issued a warning that Russia has 48 hours to withdraw or face "serious repercussions." Russian President, Vladimir Putin has released the following statement.

"This is not a matter for the west to concern itself. This is an internal issue being handled by the Russian Federation. The dark days of the Russians living in Estonia are in the past and we can now move towards a better, united future."

President Obama is expected to give an address at 4:30 EST from the White House.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/01/russia-estonia-invasion-nato


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Joshgreen on April 01, 2014, 01:53:49 PM
Oh dear...

Quote
On Tuesday evening Russian soldiers could be seen crossing the Russian-Estonian border and entering into the city of Narva. Through out the county of Ida-Viru, a largely Russian speaking region, towns have been raising the Russian flag, welcoming the soldiers. NATO, has issued a warning that Russia has 48 hours to withdraw or face "serious repercussions." Russian President, Vladimir Putin has released the following statement.

"This is not a matter for the west to concern itself. This is an internal issue being handled by the Russian Federation. The dark days of the Russians living in Estonia are in the past and we can now move towards a better, united future."

President Obama is expected to give an address at 4:30 EST from the White House.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/01/russia-estonia-invasion-nato

Locate the shelters...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MalaspinaGold on April 01, 2014, 02:15:11 PM
The link appears to be broken

EDIT: nvm, is this supposed to be an April Fool's joke?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on April 01, 2014, 02:17:16 PM

You forgot something.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 01, 2014, 04:10:46 PM

This year it is still a joke. Enjoy, while it is funny :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on April 02, 2014, 02:23:49 PM
Yanik the traitorous puppet is still a traitorous puppet.

But is he changing tune?

Yanukovych: Russian annexation of Crimea is "a tragedy" (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26857734)

Quote
Ukraine's deposed President Viktor Yanukovych says Russia's annexation of Crimea is "a tragedy" and he hopes it will become part of Ukraine again.

In an interview with the Associated Press and Russian channel NTV, he also said he gave no orders to open fire on protesters in the capital, Kiev.

Mr Yanukovych fled Kiev after protests in which more than 100 people died.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RodPresident on April 05, 2014, 01:35:12 PM
A gas relief operation would be a good way to help Ukraine without a dramatic. I think that one of worse things to happen due to Crimean anexation was full Russian control of Azov straits, depriving Ukraine of ports like Berdyansk and Mariupol. A gas relief effort, building gas terminals in Southwest Ukraine would be interesting.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on April 07, 2014, 07:23:31 AM
Apparently pro Russian activists have declared Donetsk's  independence from Ukraine.  Donetsk is in eastern Ukraine. 

http://rt.com/news/donetsk-republic-protestukraine-841/ (http://rt.com/news/donetsk-republic-protestukraine-841/)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 07, 2014, 09:59:33 AM
Apparently Russians have declared Donetsk's independence from Ukraine.  Donetsk is in eastern Ukraine. 

Russian propaganda (http://rt.com/news/donetsk-republic-protestukraine-841/)

Fixed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 07, 2014, 01:47:10 PM
Anyway pro-Russian activists occupied a government building, proclaiming the 'People's Republic of Donetsk' and reclaiming a self-determination referendum.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/apr/07/donetsk-protesters-independence-ukraine-russia-video

The Ukrainian government appointed some oligarchs as governors in several eastern oblasts, in an attempt to support the stability of the Russian speaking regions with "well-known and powerful" personalities. However, such appointments have accomplished nothing but to inflate the indignation of pro-Russian. Some leader of the 'Donetsk Republic' called Andrei Purgin said a week ago that appointing an oligarch as Sergei Taruta -current governor of Donetsk- is "very offensive" for the local people in dire straits and warned: "in Kiev there has been a revolution, and I am afraid that the same thing is going to happen here, a revolt without the chance of going back". According to Purgin, they want to ask the people on two options: federation with Ukraine or joining Russia. He said he would conform to "a status similar to that of Bavaria in Germany".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 07, 2014, 03:44:35 PM
He said he would conform to "a status similar to that of Bavaria in Germany".

An interesting statement considering that Bavaria has no special constitutional status whatsoever compared to other German states. Bavaria's "special autonomy" mainly stems from the fact that the CSU is not a part of the federal CDU. So, the Ukrainian equivalent would be demanding the formation of a (non-separatist) regionalist party in the Donetsk oblast.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 07, 2014, 04:42:16 PM
Consider that Ukraine is an unitarian state. You can interpretate that the minimal thing some pro-Russians were willing to accept is a decentralised and federal state and a status for southern and eastern oblasts similar to that of German länder. Perhaps that guy mentioned Bavaria because it's 'singular'.

It's interesting to read what Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who stated he's "carefully observing" the events, writes in The Guardian ("It's not Russia that is destabilising Ukraine") regarding to this question:

Quote
Russia is doing all it can to promote early stabilisation in Ukraine. We are firmly convinced that this can be achieved through, among other steps: real constitutional reform, which would ensure the legitimate rights of all Ukrainian regions and respond to demands from its south-eastern region to make Russian the state's second official language; firm guarantees on Ukraine's non-aligned status to be enshrined in its laws, thus ensuring its role as a connecting link in an indivisible European security architecture; and urgent measures to halt activity by illegal armed formations of the Right Sector and other ultra-nationalist groups.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/07/sergei-lavrov-russia-stabilise-ukraine-west

You don't have to believe Lavrov when he says Russia is promoting Ukraine's stabilisation. Anyway he's drawing some red lines. He assures they "are not imposing anything on anyone", but warns: "we just see that if it is not done, Ukraine will continue to spiral into crisis with unpredictable consequences." Extract your own conclusion.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 08, 2014, 04:58:05 PM
Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on April 08, 2014, 05:00:40 PM
Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?
Will Ukraine really be any worse without them? They seem to be filled with pro-Russian trouble makers and sh*t disturbers.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 08, 2014, 05:25:09 PM
Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?
Will Ukraine really be any worse without them? They seem to be filled with pro-Russian trouble makers and sh*t disturbers.

1. A very big chunk of their economic base is in the East

2. While mostly Russian speakers Eastern Ukrainians are Ukrainians too.

3. The troublemakers are - mainly - Russians from Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 08, 2014, 05:53:20 PM
Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?

Putin may not behind this.  In deciding to ride the back of the irredentist tiger, he may well have ended up with a more intense ride than he intended.  That isn't to say that he might be approving of this, just that he might not.  Crimea is a bite of Ukraine that while it would take some time to digest and will cause diplomatic problems for a few years, is something that could be reasonably be expected to be resolved in few years.

The pre-existing autonomous status of Crimea gave a definable endpoint that would enable the restoration of stability.  Going after Eastern Ukraine has the problem of a total lack of a definable endpoint short of gobbling up all of Ukraine.  He might be able to do it, but in doing so, he guarantees that the West will isolate Russia economically.

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 08, 2014, 06:09:17 PM

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.


There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.




Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 08, 2014, 06:55:45 PM

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.


There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.

Russia has developed its economy primarily by being a provider of raw resources. Europe and China are not only the most convenient markets for Russia geographically, they also are the ones that have the greatest demand for what Russia is set up to produce for export.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 08, 2014, 07:15:45 PM
Stupid obvious question I'm ashamed not to know and I should have asked early but probably a lot of other people were afraid to ask as well.

Is there actually a difference between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Beyond language, it's pretty much entirely self identification, isn't it?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 08, 2014, 09:41:15 PM
Stupid obvious question I'm ashamed not to know and I should have asked early but probably a lot of other people were afraid to ask as well.

Is there actually a difference between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Beyond language, it's pretty much entirely self identification, isn't it?

What difference, other than language and self-identification, do you want? All Europeans, broadly, look the same :)

Language, names, history, traditions, religion all vary somewhat - though, of course, they also all vary within each country as well. The differences are quite serious between, say, Moscow and Kiev (and still more so between Vologda and Lviv), but, of course, they are rather slight between Belgorod and Kharkiv (the Russian and the Ukrainian cities 40 minutes apart by car). The same would be the comparison between the Ukrainians and Poles, for that matter. Or the Germans and the Dutch, if you prefer that.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 08, 2014, 09:48:33 PM

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.


There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.


Russia sells, mostly, oil and gas. It charges particularly high prices for gas, because Europe is a captive market for the moment. It would not be able to charge any such premium elsewhere.

Who are major Russian trade partners outside the West and China? Well, the ex-Soviets, of course. And elsewhere? Turkey, I guess - but that one is also in NATO. There is a reason for that.

What is Russia going to trade with Venezuela? Oil?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 08, 2014, 10:00:48 PM
Stupid obvious question I'm ashamed not to know and I should have asked early but probably a lot of other people were afraid to ask as well.

Is there actually a difference between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Beyond language, it's pretty much entirely self identification, isn't it?

What difference, other than language and self-identification, do you want? All Europeans, broadly, look the same :)

Language, names, history, traditions, religion all vary somewhat - though, of course, they also all vary within each country as well. The differences are quite serious between, say, Moscow and Kiev (and still more so between Vologda and Lviv), but, of course, they are rather slight between Belgorod and Kharkiv (the Russian and the Ukrainian cities 40 minutes apart by car). The same would be the comparison between the Ukrainians and Poles, for that matter. Or the Germans and the Dutch, if you prefer that.

Yeah, but at least Poles have been calling themselves Poles for centuries. I was reading somewhere that in 1990, a third of Ukrainians just called themselves "Slavs"


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 09, 2014, 12:51:24 AM
Stupid obvious question I'm ashamed not to know and I should have asked early but probably a lot of other people were afraid to ask as well.

Is there actually a difference between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Beyond language, it's pretty much entirely self identification, isn't it?

What difference, other than language and self-identification, do you want? All Europeans, broadly, look the same :)

Language, names, history, traditions, religion all vary somewhat - though, of course, they also all vary within each country as well. The differences are quite serious between, say, Moscow and Kiev (and still more so between Vologda and Lviv), but, of course, they are rather slight between Belgorod and Kharkiv (the Russian and the Ukrainian cities 40 minutes apart by car). The same would be the comparison between the Ukrainians and Poles, for that matter. Or the Germans and the Dutch, if you prefer that.

Yeah, but at least Poles have been calling themselves Poles for centuries. I was reading somewhere that in 1990, a third of Ukrainians just called themselves "Slavs"

No, not in 1990.  In 1990 there would be lot of people calling themselves "Soviet", but that would include many non-Slavs :) As for ethnicity, everybody had to choose Russian, Ukrainian, etc. - "Slavic" was not an option. The "fifth point" - ethnic identity - was present in every document that a Soviet citizen had to fill out since the pre-WWII years, at least. It was on the birth certificate and on the domestic ID. Nobody would be confused in 1990 - or for a few generations previous, at the very least.

But it was not a mere Soviet documentary creation.  Whatever the ethnic definitions of the government, Ukrainian - anti-Soviet - national movement had been a huge deal for a long time. It was one of the more coherent ethnic movements in the Soviet Union: and, probably, one of the most radical and violent (at least in the first post-war years). They fought the Russians till the mid 1950s in the Western districts (hence the current Russian obsession with "banderovtsy" - followers of Bandera, one of the Ukrainian nationalist leaders; these did, indeed, at one point in time kill many Russians - and other non-Ukrainians, such as Poles; for them the WWII was not over in 1945). And even later, when the violent resistance was suppressed, Soviet camps would overflow with Ukrainian prisoners, whose main guilt was insisting on Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian independence. People would spend 30 years incarcerated for this thing - it was not anything confused and undefined. It was only confusing to the Russians, most of whom still find it impossible to reconcile themselves with the separate Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian states. Most Ukrainians have no doubts whatsoever.

In a sense, Ukrainians called themselves "Russian" before the Russians did :) At least, this is most definitely true of the language. Up until the 16th century both Moscow and Kiev were operating in a peculiar form of "diglossia" - dual language use. That is, there was the "holy" language - the Church Slavonic, a Southern Slavic language, which was used for all things relating to the Church and had some other defined applications (this language was common for both cities - as well as for much of the rest of the Orthodox world). And there was the local Eastern Slavic dialect which in each place was being used for more mundane purposes, including almost the entirety of oral communication - but which also included running the public bureaucracy (another Eastern Slavic dialect was at the time used to administer the Grand Duchy of Lithuania - it later became Belorussian; there was also the very distinct dialect in Novgorod - but Moscow conquest, eventually, led to that one mostly dying out, though contributing somewhat to modern Russian).  However, across the Eastern Slavic world the two languages: the Church and the mundane - were perceived as a single "Slavic" tongue (which just happened to have different stylistic "registers", used in different settings). It was in Kiev that the Greek-influenced grammarians first noted that both grammatically and lexically these were different languages and started designating the Church language as "Slavonic" or "Slavic" and the local language as "Russian". In Moscow this distinction took another generation or two to make an impact - under the influence from Kiev. In fact, the first grammar books making the distinctions were reprints from Kiev, and their examples of "Russian" speech were distinctly Ukrainian, to the hilarity of the opponents of the newfangled notions (the archpriest Avvakum, one of the leading clerics of the Old Belief, derided the reformers as "nekhaishchiki" - playing off the Ukrainian word "nekhai" (roughly, "so be"), which to Muscovites sounds - and, probably, did sound at the time - somewhat hilarious).

Anyways, over the centuries the different parts of historic "Rus" got distinct designations. The area around Kiev, much of it under Polish domination, became "Lesser <i.e., core> Russia" (compare with the "Lesser Poland" around Warsaw). The lands under Lithuanian control became "White Russia" (today's Belarus). Moscow and thereabouts were talked of as "Greater Russia" (originally, probably, meaning the part outside of the core - compare with "Greater Poland" around Poznan), but with time, and due to its political independence and non-colonial identity, the "Greater" started being thought of the "Great",  while the "Lesser" got the unmistakable - and with time, increasingly, somewhat pejorative - meaning of "Little".  All three major areas had their own local dialects, and all three areas started developing their own written standards. It is true, that the East Slavic language and Orthodox (or, later, Eastern Rite, in parts of the territory) religion provided for some common identity.  But these were already quite noticeably different by the 16th century, at the least, and unmistakable in the 18th. Unsurprisingly, of all the Easter Slavs, other than the "Greater" Russians, the ones who clung to the "Russian" identity longest were the Rusyns - speakers of the transitional dialects from Eastern to Western Slavic. As they were Orthodox/Greek Catholic, and thus distinct from Poles/Slovaks, who lived nearby, it was this distinction they stressed. Likewise, for many of them it was important to distinguish themselves from "proper" Ukrainians, with whom the are frequently lumped. "Greater" Russians were far away (in fact, that area was never within Moscow sphere of influence before WWII), so the word similar to "Russian" seemed to give a properly distinct identity.

In contrast, as Ukrainian territories were gradually absorbed into Russia, the bulk of Ukrainians increasingly identified themselves by distinguishing themselves from Russians as much as from Poles. They sometimes allied with Russians (as hetman Bohdan Khmelnytsky did in the 17th century), or allied with others against the Russians (as hetman Mazepa tried to ally with the Swedes).  Anyway, by the second part of the 19th century modern Ukrainian identity was very much developed: much of it in opposition to Russia. By this time Ukrainian literature is really taking off - in a language variety that most Russians struggled to understand then, and find only barely intelligible now.

Interestingly, the Novgorod dialect I mentioned above was, probably,  the most distinct of them all in the Middle Ages. It is well-documented, due, in part, to a large number of birch-bark letters and notes found by the archeologists. And it was spoken over a very large area - most of what is now Northern (European) Russia. It was well on the way to develop into a separate Eastern Slavic language - more distinct, in fact, than the others, and with its own written tradition and widespread literacy to boot. But, first, Moscow conquered the Republic of Novgorod, and then Ivan the Terrible massacred much of the city population, exiling big chunks of whatever survived and replacing it with Moscow settlers. Traces of the dialect survive in some northern villages, but as an urban and literary phenomenon it was destroyed.

As a result, in fact, Russian is fairly homogenous all over the country. True, it is easy to distinguish the northern" "o-ing" and the southern "h-ing", but for a country this size Russia is very linguistically homogenous - that is the old tradition of centralized control for you. Ukrainian, in contrast, is very much split into dialects: while the Eastern speech transitions into Russian, the western is heavily polonized, with a huge variety in between (the contrast is just one of the many things that distinguishes Russians and Ukrainians).



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 09, 2014, 01:15:17 AM
There's a significant number of Russian speakers who call themselves Ukrainians though. Isn't that more a political statement than something backed up by genetics?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 09, 2014, 01:39:12 AM
Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?

Putin may not behind this. 

Those actions were simultaneous and coordinated; it's reasonable to put the blame on Putin, although that's not yet proven. What is Putin looking for? Annexation of the East or taking advantage of the Ukrainian chaos before the presidential election to implement his minimum 'programme' for the country? I hope Putin is not planning an incursion and just playing strong in order to put pressure on Kiev government in order to achieve: federalisation of Ukraine; equal status for Russian language; and a neutrality status, consecrated via constitutional reform, to avoid that Ukraine joins NATO. If Putin decides to intervene, consequences can be terrible both for Russia and Europe, needless to say.

Support for integration with Russia is by no means as strong in the East as it was in Crimea. Apparently, pro-Russian people protesting around the government building in Donetsk don't have common goals. Although all protesters ask for the help of Russia and reclaim a referendum on the status of the oblast, some want to join the 'Mother Russia' and others want to stay in a federalised Ukraine. In Kharkiv, PoR candidate Mikhail Dobkin stated that city is an inseparable part of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, two deputies from the far-right Svoboda seized communist leader Petro Symonenko in the parliament, after the latter accused nationalists of "playing into Russia's hands".

http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/apr/08/ukrainian-mps-brawl-parliament-video


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Gustaf on April 09, 2014, 01:53:50 AM
There's a significant number of Russian speakers who call themselves Ukrainians though. Isn't that more a political statement than something backed up by genetics?

I think you're missing AG's point that nationality in general isn't very well defined by genetics.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 09, 2014, 05:51:57 AM

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.


There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.


Russia sells, mostly, oil and gas. It charges particularly high prices for gas, because Europe is a captive market for the moment. It would not be able to charge any such premium elsewhere.

Who are major Russian trade partners outside the West and China? Well, the ex-Soviets, of course. And elsewhere? Turkey, I guess - but that one is also in NATO. There is a reason for that.

What is Russia going to trade with Venezuela? Oil?

What on earth made you think of Venezuela of all places?

India, South Korea and Japan are more relevant. In general there are plenty of countries willing to buy oil and gas.

EDIT: My answer was in regard to Ernests assertion that Russia would have no choice but to be "a Chinese economic vasal", not whether it would lose income (at least in the short to medium run) by a break with the West, which is a given.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 09, 2014, 07:26:08 AM
There's a significant number of Russian speakers who call themselves Ukrainians though. Isn't that more a political statement than something backed up by genetics?

What does genetics have to donwith it? In any case, as far as I know, there is almost a greater genetic diversity among the Russians than between Ukrainians and and Germans :) Russians have assimilated a huge Finnic-speaking population - ancestors of most Russians around Moscow and further North were not, really, Slavic. Which does not make them non-Russian, of course. Those in the South are of the same stock as Ukrainians, apparently - which is entirely irrelevant here.

That the self-identification is meaningful is supported by the existence of pro-Ukrainian Russians in Ukraine. Remember that Ukrainian Navy captain, who responded to the Russian order to give up his ship by saying: "Russians do not surrender"? In his view he was An ethnic Russian, but a Ukrainian officer. He had no ambiguity on either count.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 09, 2014, 08:35:10 AM

What difference, other than language and self-identification, do you want? All Europeans, broadly, look the same :)


Well, the difference between the common look in the Mediterranean countries and Scandinavia should be quite obvious to anyone without a visual disability.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 09, 2014, 08:37:58 AM

What difference, other than language and self-identification, do you want? All Europeans, broadly, look the same :)


Well, the difference between the common look in the Mediterranean countries and Scandinavia should be quite obvious to anyone without a visual disability.


Not in Mexico. :) Anybody, whose hair is not completely black is a blond here.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 09, 2014, 08:40:05 AM

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.


There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.

Russia has developed its economy primarily by being a provider of raw resources. Europe and China are not only the most convenient markets for Russia geographically, they also are the ones that have the greatest demand for what Russia is set up to produce for export.

While pipelines is indeed an important factor, when we are talking crude oil its a different matter and a large number of countries, especially in Asia, have a huge oil demand and could provide alternative markets.

Besides its not all raw materials. Russia has 27 percent of global arms exports and this is a truly global market with Latin America and the Middle East being areas where Russia has gained market shares recently.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 09, 2014, 09:20:49 AM

Besides its not all raw materials. Russia has 27 percent of global arms exports and this is a truly global market with Latin America and the Middle East being areas where Russia has gained market shares recently.

Oil is a global market, of course. Which means that the price is, more or less, the same across the world. If Russia is not exploiting its European pipeline, it is going to be the same wit gas. These prices will be going down, given the current technological developments. Russia crucially depends on them staying up. However, Russia's actions are spurring the technological advances that are going to accelerate their downward trend.

Weapons, of course, is another Russian export. Though, interestingly, this Russian industry has been quite integrated with... Ukraine :) So, buyers of certain Russian arms might find that maintenance (never a Russian strong point) is not very readily available, as spare parts were Ukrainian production (now likely to be discontinued). In any case, this industry is not big enough given Russia's size. What else do they export to, say, Latin America?

Anyways, nobody, of course, is taking the sentence about the "Chinese economic vassal" literally (at least, nobody should). But there is a grain of truth in it: there are reasons the broad West and China Russia's dominant trading partners, and they cannot be easily replaced. If Russia cuts itself off the West, it will be, to a much greater extent than now, the resource supplier for China - with whatever else that implies.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 09, 2014, 10:41:05 AM

Besides its not all raw materials. Russia has 27 percent of global arms exports and this is a truly global market with Latin America and the Middle East being areas where Russia has gained market shares recently.

Oil is a global market, of course. Which means that the price is, more or less, the same across the world. If Russia is not exploiting its European pipeline, it is going to be the same wit gas. These prices will be going down, given the current technological developments. Russia crucially depends on them staying up. However, Russia's actions are spurring the technological advances that are going to accelerate their downward trend.

Weapons, of course, is another Russian export. Though, interestingly, this Russian industry has been quite integrated with... Ukraine :) So, buyers of certain Russian arms might find that maintenance (never a Russian strong point) is not very readily available, as spare parts were Ukrainian production (now likely to be discontinued). In any case, this industry is not big enough given Russia's size. What else do they export to, say, Latin America?

Anyways, nobody, of course, is taking the sentence about the "Chinese economic vassal" literally (at least, nobody should). But there is a grain of truth in it: there are reasons the broad West and China Russia's dominant trading partners, and they cannot be easily replaced. If Russia cuts itself off the West, it will be, to a much greater extent than now, the resource supplier for China - with whatever else that implies.

Oil and gas will increasingly become scarce commodities while demand increases keeping prices up.

China is not the only game in town. Why shouldn't Russia be able to cut into the Indian, Brazilian, Japanese and South Korean energy markets?

Anyway, the general trend in Russian economic policies lately seems to be focused on disentangling its economy from the West and gaining a more independent position.

Are the Ukrainian arms industry located mainly in the East or all over the country?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 09, 2014, 03:34:12 PM
Oil and gas will increasingly become scarce commodities while demand increases keeping prices up.

China is not the only game in town. Why shouldn't Russia be able to cut into the Indian, Brazilian, Japanese and South Korean energy markets?

Anyway, the general trend in Russian economic policies lately seems to be focused on disentangling its economy from the West and gaining a more independent position.

Are the Ukrainian arms industry located mainly in the East or all over the country?

The energy market (at least, the oil market - though, in the future, the entire world) is global, so, in a sense, it does not matter whom Russia sells to. In that sense, you are completely missing my point - it is already selling to the entire world, even if it is not :)  However, up till now, it has been able to exploit the peculiarities of gas distribution to have a peculiar relationship with Europe - that is going to be gone.  With respect to the rest of the world Russia is just another supplier - it will not have market power of its own. It can, of course, build pipelines to China, trying to replace the European relationship - but China will drive a good bargain, so, once again, Russia is unlikely to get any revenues above those of the global market. But Russian production is not as cheap as in the Middle East, so its profits will not be nearly as high.

And no, I do not believe the prices will grow. Every indication we have suggests that future energy prices will be lower than in recent past. The high oil and gas prices did lead to a lot of technological progress, making feasible extraction of a lot of previously unusable energy. Russia´s threat is going to make this change even faster. BTW, even Ukraine is now considered to have substantial (shale) gas reserves (currently estimated to be third largest in Europe): something that was not true until recently. A couple of years of stability, and Ukraine will likely be exporting to Europe, finding the new use for ex-Soviet pipelines.

Russia has very few trade agreements outside of its immediate hinterland. It is not a very attractive trade partner on anything other than oil and gas. It is not going to become more attractive overnight - high transportation costs, difficult trade policies, active use of "sanitary" pretexts to launch de facto embargos, political unpredictability, bad maintenance services, etc., are not going to disappear. Oil and gas is another story - but Russian behavior is ensuring that it is going to be just another player in a globally glutted market.

And, BTW, Japan is as much part of the West as, say, France. And with a serious territorial issue with Russia to boot.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 10, 2014, 04:13:02 PM
I am not missing your point about Russian profits going down if they are just another player on the global market. My focus here is just different: If we assume (for the sake of argument and to clarify possibilities) that the Russian leadership a) really wants to reincorporate Eastern Ukraine and other areas with a Russian or Russian-speaking population and b) is prepared to risk isolation from the West and a loss of some income how are their options?

It was in this context that Ernest claimed they would have no choice, but to become a Chinese economic vassal and I counter argued.

Technology only takes you so far. At the end of the day oil and gas are nonrenewable resources, so in the long run prices will increase (unless we have a breakthrough on renewable energy) and I am a pessimist on this. We will get a few decades of cheaper energy and then prices will increase again. Demand is just growing too fast.


And, BTW, Japan is as much part of the West as, say, France. And with a serious territorial issue with Russia to boot.

Regarding Japan I don't see the Japanese following a US/EU boycott of Russia. Especially not with the present leadership.


  


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 10, 2014, 06:41:26 PM
Regarding Japan I don't see the Japanese following a US/EU boycott of Russia. Especially not with the present leadership.  

While not a boycott, I don't see Japan cozying up to Russia either, especially as long as Russia continues to hold onto the Northern Territories.  Besides, Japan already has access to a variety of energy options, so it certainly won't pay a premium for Russian oil and gas, even if Russia were to build the necessary infrastructure to export them to the Pacific.  I also don't see Japan being stupid enough or desperate enough to addict itself to below-world market Russian energy if Russia were to offer it any.  So if Russia tries to play diplomacy with its resources in Asia, it'll have to do so further south and at added expense, and I don't really see where Russia would be interested unless it decides it needs to contain China.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 11, 2014, 08:57:41 PM

Technology only takes you so far. At the end of the day oil and gas are nonrenewable resources, so in the long run prices will increase (unless we have a breakthrough on renewable energy) and I am a pessimist on this. We will get a few decades of cheaper energy and then prices will increase again. Demand is just growing too fast.



I do not think, at present, we have any reason to believe that oil and gas will be close to running out within the lifespan of anybody currently alive - or, for that matter, within the lifespan of their grandchildren. And if they do, then other technologies will become cost-effective and will replace oil and gas. I think it is a fairly safe prediction that the average oil and gas prices over the next century will be below those recently. Just notice how within a few years breakthroughs in shale gas and oil happened and what they are doing.

Finiteness of the non-renewable resources is undisputable. So is finiteness of life on Earth (this por planet will most certainly be eventually swallowed by the expanding Sun, you know). As far as the present discussion goes, both are equally relevant :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 11, 2014, 08:58:46 PM
I
Regarding Japan I don't see the Japanese following a US/EU boycott of Russia. Especially not with the present leadership.

 

Yes, you are right. They will not follow US/EU. They will lead. If this particular government follows its natural inclinations it will be more radical then the rest of the West in confronting Russia.

You know, some Japanese politicians have already taken note that a substantial chunk of the current population of the Northern Territories happens to be Ukrainian. They might insist on their own referéndum :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 11, 2014, 09:52:49 PM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 11, 2014, 10:46:14 PM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 11, 2014, 11:04:39 PM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 11, 2014, 11:25:25 PM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 12, 2014, 12:30:01 AM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask :)))


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 12, 2014, 12:44:37 AM
The interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk made a flying visit to the eastern oblasts, in a failed attempt to break the deadlock. He met some officials in Donetsk and made promises of devolution, preserving the status of Russian as second language and constitutional reforms before the elections. The Ukrainian authorities mark a red line between decentralisation and federalism, which they consider tantamount to separatism. In that meeting Rimat Akhmetov, the wealthiest man in Ukraine, urged Yatsenyuk to negotiate with the people that occupies the Donetsk governmental building. The oligarch made a passionate allegation about the hard situation of the eastern regions ("people wants that Donbass' voice is listened" and "respect") and said negotiation is the only right way. Yatsenyuk didn't met with the pro-Russian protesters. The interim PM said in TV that, in his opinion, Ukraine will need two years to overcome the crisis.

On a side note, seven people were killed in an explosion in the Skochinsky coal mine, near Donetsk:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/11/uk-ukraine-crisis-mine-idUKBREA3A0HC20140411


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on April 12, 2014, 11:38:34 AM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask :)))
Aren't the Kurils majority Russian, though?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zuza on April 12, 2014, 03:27:19 PM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask :)))
Aren't the Kurils majority Russian, though?

From 2010 Census: Kuril district (Iturup) - 4637 Russians, 349 Ukrainians (and I doubt that many of them can say a few words in Ukrainian...); South Kuril district (Kunashir, Shikotan, Habomai) - 7043 Russians, 466 Ukrainians. I don't know what people settled there after 1945, but even if most of them were Ukrainians, they assimilated long time ago.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 12, 2014, 06:32:35 PM
Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask :)))
Aren't the Kurils majority Russian, though?

From 2010 Census: Kuril district (Iturup) - 4637 Russians, 349 Ukrainians (and I doubt that many of them can say a few words in Ukrainian...); South Kuril district (Kunashir, Shikotan, Habomai) - 7043 Russians, 466 Ukrainians. I don't know what people settled there after 1945, but even if most of them were Ukrainians, they assimilated long time ago.

If need comes, they will be Ukrainians. If need comes, they will be Hottentots, for god's sake :)

Good enough, at this point, that some people in Japan have already declared them Ukrainians :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RosettaStoned on April 13, 2014, 08:19:28 PM
 How is this even a big deal? Almost all of eastern Ukraine is full of Russians. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Gustaf on April 14, 2014, 06:33:34 AM
So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Boris on April 14, 2014, 09:47:16 AM
So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

Most of us don't speak Ukranian or Russian, so there's not really a whole lot in the way of discussion other than regurgitation of BBC News bulletins, mindless unfalsifiable speculation, or armchair sagery from our suburban homes.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Gustaf on April 14, 2014, 04:22:10 PM
So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

Most of us don't speak Ukranian or Russian, so there's not really a whole lot in the way of discussion other than regurgitation of BBC News bulletins, mindless unfalsifiable speculation, or armchair sagery from our suburban homes.

If only there were people in the West who spoke Russian and could transmit such information. Dang.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 14, 2014, 05:54:40 PM
So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

Most of us don't speak Ukranian or Russian, so there's not really a whole lot in the way of discussion other than regurgitation of BBC News bulletins, mindless unfalsifiable speculation, or armchair sagery from our suburban homes.

If only there were people in the West who spoke Russian and could transmit such information. Dang.

I didn't know you were a fan of Russia Today, Gustaf.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 14, 2014, 08:34:24 PM
I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 14, 2014, 08:53:12 PM
I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.

And definitely better than the average Russian.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on April 14, 2014, 09:31:12 PM
I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.

And definitely better than the average Russian.
Judging by several posts in this thread, I'm not sure that is a universal statement.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on April 15, 2014, 11:16:42 PM
U.S. voters agree Putin won’t stop at Crimea, but they’re unsure what to do

BY LESLEY CLARK
McClatchy Washington Bureau
April 14, 2014


WASHINGTON — With tensions rising over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, a new McClatchy-Marist Poll finds Americans ambivalent over how deeply the United States should be involved in the situation.

American voters largely support only squeezing Russia economically and politically, even as they display strong distrust of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

They give President Barack Obama mixed reviews for his handling of Russia’s move to lop off Ukraine’s Crimea region, but they offer no clear view of how the U.S. should respond to the crisis.

“Issues very often have huge partisan polarization and some clear marching orders, but this doesn’t have that,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in New York.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/04/14/224397/us-voters-agree-putin-wont-stop.html#storylink=cpy


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 16, 2014, 02:31:18 AM
Did anyone notice that Ukrainan government forces seized back an airport and gathered some tanks outside one of the towns controlled by pro-Russian groups?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/ukraine-armed-conflict-east

Vladimr Putin warned Merkel that Ukraine might be on the edge of a civil war. Hardly veiled threat.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 16, 2014, 03:57:32 AM
Quote
Only Russia and four other nations have recognized all these events—namely Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Syria, and Venezuela.[1][2][3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea_and_Sevastopol#Stances

I guess fighting a 13 year long war doesn't stop a country from being a pawn of Putin.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 16, 2014, 03:59:45 AM
In response to the situation in Ukraine, BILD newspaper has initiated a petition for the removal of the Russian tanks in front of the Soviet War Memorial in Berlin-Tiergarten.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_War_Memorial_%28Tiergarten%29

That'll teach 'em a lesson!!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2014, 04:11:19 AM
Russian tanks and soldiers have now entered Eastern Ukraine, near Slawjansk:

()

Ukrainian tanks and soldiers are being deployed to the East as well:

()

http://kurier.at/politik/ausland/ostukraine-panzer-unter-russischer-flagge-fahren-auf/60.803.743


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 16, 2014, 04:16:32 AM
Russian tanks and soldiers have now entered Eastern Ukraine, near Slawjansk:

()

Those are Ukrainian tanks who have switched sides and are now supporting the separatists (and are hence flying the Russian flag).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 16, 2014, 05:21:04 AM
Those are Ukrainian tanks who have switched sides and are now supporting the separatists (and are hence flying the Russian flag).

Yes. The Guardian reports that pro-Russian separatists seized 5 armoured personnel carriers in Kromatorsk (Ukrainian forces seized the town's airport yesterday), which were driven to Slavyansk.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/16/pro-russian-separatists-seize-ukrainian-armoured-vehicles

According to a council's spokeswoman quoted by El País, at least 20 pro-Russian activists have seized the Donetsk Town Hall.


In response to the situation in Ukraine, BILD newspaper has initiated a petition for the removal of the Russian tanks in front of the Soviet War Memorial in Berlin-Tiergarten.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_War_Memorial_%28Tiergarten%29

That'll teach 'em a lesson!!


After reading this, Putin is trembling alone in a room inside the Kremlin.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on April 16, 2014, 08:38:45 AM
Quote
Only Russia and four other nations have recognized all these events—namely Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Syria, and Venezuela.[1][2][3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea_and_Sevastopol#Stances

I guess fighting a 13 year long war doesn't stop a country from being a pawn of Putin.


are cuban-russian relations not good these days?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Gustaf on April 16, 2014, 08:52:07 AM
So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

Most of us don't speak Ukranian or Russian, so there's not really a whole lot in the way of discussion other than regurgitation of BBC News bulletins, mindless unfalsifiable speculation, or armchair sagery from our suburban homes.

If only there were people in the West who spoke Russian and could transmit such information. Dang.

I didn't know you were a fan of Russia Today, Gustaf.

They're sort of funny, I'll give them that. ;)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on April 16, 2014, 10:26:08 AM
Quote
Only Russia and four other nations have recognized all these events—namely Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Syria, and Venezuela.[1][2][3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea_and_Sevastopol#Stances

I guess fighting a 13 year long war doesn't stop a country from being a pawn of Putin.


are cuban-russian relations not good these days?

Cuba voted against the UN resolution supporting Ukraine's position but for whatever reason didn't officially recognize the accession of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Federation. The same is true of, for example, Bolivia and Zimbabwe, so I'm not sure that reflects anything about Cuban-Russian relations specifically. What it does indicate I can't tell.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 16, 2014, 10:33:21 AM
According to that Wikipedia page, the position of Belarus is pretty incoherent, so maybe the similar true with regards to Cuba :P :

"Position of  Belarus is vague: it includes "Ukraine should remain an integral, indivisible, non-aligned state" and "As for Crimea, I do not like it when the integrity and independence of a country are broken", on the one hand, and "Today Crimea is part of the Russian Federation. No matter whether you recognize it or not, the fact remains." and "Whether Crimea will be recognized as a region of the Russian Federation de-jure does not really matter", on the other hand.[9]"

Translation: So, Crimea is part of Ukraine... except that it's not.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2014, 11:41:27 AM
What on God's green earth happened to the Ukranian military? They're refusing to live fire and actually engage in combat. Sources I follow on Twitter said it's because they refuse to kill/be killed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on April 16, 2014, 12:01:06 PM
They are asked to shoot their own people, that probably makes a difference.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2014, 12:08:40 PM
Then why deploy them in the first place?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2014, 12:21:04 PM
Ukrainian journalist quoting a government adviser: they don't want any dead bodies before Geneva or any civilian casualties.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 17, 2014, 01:14:35 AM
Ukrainians do not want to be the first to shed blood. The problem is, that, probably, means, that, eventually, there will be A LOT of blood.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on April 17, 2014, 03:55:18 AM
According to that Wikipedia page, the position of Belarus is pretty incoherent, so maybe the similar true with regards to Cuba :P :

"Position of  Belarus is vague: it includes "Ukraine should remain an integral, indivisible, non-aligned state" and "As for Crimea, I do not like it when the integrity and independence of a country are broken", on the one hand, and "Today Crimea is part of the Russian Federation. No matter whether you recognize it or not, the fact remains." and "Whether Crimea will be recognized as a region of the Russian Federation de-jure does not really matter", on the other hand.[9]"

Translation: So, Crimea is part of Ukraine... except that it's not.

No the translation are this: "We are a small neighbour to Russia, so we don't like that Russia invades its smaller neighbours, but neither do we wish to make our big neighbour angry at us"


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on April 17, 2014, 08:38:31 AM
Then why deploy them in the first place?
Because a good chunk of the military's hierarchy has been purged and replaced by incompetents who have just been in office for a few weeks ? And they are morons ? Yes, Krutov, I'm pointing at you...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2014, 10:24:54 AM
Jews in the Donetsk PR are being told to register and provide a list of all their property. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/) Meanwhile WSJ's Paul Sonne reports from Putin's long presser that Putin said eastern Ukraine is historically part of Russia and made a lot of sympathetic noises about Yanukovych. Combined with the Russian media reports that Yanukovych will be back in Donetsk in 2 weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin militarily installed his puppet atop a puppet East Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2014, 10:31:17 AM
Canada will be sending 6 Hornets to Poland and 20 officers to NATO HQ.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2014, 11:00:30 AM
Donetsk separatist leader denies responsibility for the leaflets but admits his organization was involved. (http://lhttp://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/2349)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 17, 2014, 11:41:13 AM
BBC reports Russia making calming statements about "de-escalation". This is really bad: this, probably, means invasion is going to happen really soon (whenever Puting says something seemingly informative, his intentions, usually, are exactly the opposite).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2014, 11:44:36 AM
Lavrov says a "deal" has been reached to disarm all militias. Broad national dialogue and amnesty for separatists who didn't commit capital crimes.  (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ukraine-us-alternately-cajole-threaten-russia) Russia's position hasn't changed: reorder the country as we like or we'll do it for you.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 17, 2014, 12:08:32 PM
Lavrov says a "deal" has been reached to disarm all militias. Broad national dialogue and amnesty for separatists who didn't commit capital crimes.  (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ukraine-us-alternately-cajole-threaten-russia) Russia's position hasn't changed: reorder the country as we like or we'll do it for you.

No, that is not Russian position. Russian position is: Ukraine, for the moment, is Lviv; we might talk about Kiev - but we, probably, will not give up even that. Everything else is just to waste some more time.

Of course, once they get Kiev, they will go for Lviv as well.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on April 17, 2014, 12:10:37 PM
Lavrov says a "deal" has been reached to disarm all militias. Broad national dialogue and amnesty for separatists who didn't commit capital crimes.  (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ukraine-us-alternately-cajole-threaten-russia) Russia's position hasn't changed: reorder the country as we like or we'll do it for you.

"Deal" confirmed by Kerry and Baroness Ashton.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 17, 2014, 04:29:10 PM
Lavrov says a "deal" has been reached to disarm all militias. Broad national dialogue and amnesty for separatists who didn't commit capital crimes.  (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ukraine-us-alternately-cajole-threaten-russia) Russia's position hasn't changed: reorder the country as we like or we'll do it for you.

"Deal" confirmed by Kerry and Baroness Ashton.

Welcome to Munich, ladies and gentlemen.

Get ready for what follows.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on April 17, 2014, 09:50:29 PM
Jews in the Donetsk PR are being told to register and provide a list of all their property. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/) Meanwhile WSJ's Paul Sonne reports from Putin's long presser that Putin said eastern Ukraine is historically part of Russia and made a lot of sympathetic noises about Yanukovych. Combined with the Russian media reports that Yanukovych will be back in Donetsk in 2 weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin militarily installed his puppet atop a puppet East Ukraine.

I doubt this is actually happening.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on April 17, 2014, 10:03:50 PM
Jews in the Donetsk PR are being told to register and provide a list of all their property. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/) Meanwhile WSJ's Paul Sonne reports from Putin's long presser that Putin said eastern Ukraine is historically part of Russia and made a lot of sympathetic noises about Yanukovych. Combined with the Russian media reports that Yanukovych will be back in Donetsk in 2 weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin militarily installed his puppet atop a puppet East Ukraine.

I doubt this is actually happening.

It's happening, but the odds are it's free agents causing trouble for the local Jews, rather than any organized persecution by the government.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 18, 2014, 12:34:32 AM
Jews in the Donetsk PR are being told to register and provide a list of all their property. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/) Meanwhile WSJ's Paul Sonne reports from Putin's long presser that Putin said eastern Ukraine is historically part of Russia and made a lot of sympathetic noises about Yanukovych. Combined with the Russian media reports that Yanukovych will be back in Donetsk in 2 weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin militarily installed his puppet atop a puppet East Ukraine.

I doubt this is actually happening.

It's happening, but the odds are it's free agents causing trouble for the local Jews, rather than any organized persecution by the government.

Sure. For the moment the Russian government is not doing anything against the Jews as such - as long as they are loyal. Not that it would find anything objectionable in killing Jews (or, for that matter, Russians) if it somehow were useful for whatever other objectives it establishes. At this point, though, it isn't, and in that sense Putin is no Hitler - killing Jews is not a primary objective of intrinsic value for him.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on April 18, 2014, 04:01:10 AM
One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27076226)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MATTROSE94 on April 18, 2014, 08:30:03 AM
What would our response be if Russia sent troops to conquer the rest of Ukraine and Estonia?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 18, 2014, 08:32:43 AM
It's hard to know what's really happening in Eastern Ukraine. Anyway, in this site you can find good articles:

http://theconversation.com/ukraine-clashes-raise-stakes-in-struggle-to-control-the-donbas-25772


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 18, 2014, 09:40:00 AM
One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27076226)

I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 18, 2014, 11:14:07 AM
One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27076226)

I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Problem is, those intelligence officers may have read more into their orders than they may have intended.  Even if they get privately punished later for doing so, the problem is Putin will likely find it impossible to undo they have done, since in order to do so he would effectively have to capitulate to the West.  However regardless of whether forces on the ground are exceeding their orders or they are following their orders, the effect is essentially the same.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 18, 2014, 11:32:23 AM
One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27076226)

I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Problem is, those intelligence officers may have read more into their orders than they may have intended.  Even if they get privately punished later for doing so, the problem is Putin will likely find it impossible to undo they have done, since in order to do so he would effectively have to capitulate to the West.  However regardless of whether forces on the ground are exceeding their orders or they are following their orders, the effect is essentially the same.

I think, given the history of that gentleman, it is pretty safe to assume that the worst orders emanate directly from him (even if they are given in a way that makes them hard to trace). Thinking up any other theory is entirely unnecessary, as it would explain nothing that cannot be explained simply by assuming that Putin behaves as Putin normally does.

In particular, it is safe to assume that there is no promise, verbal or written, that Putin has not decided to violate exactly the moment before making that promise. That is his normal operating mode. So, if he promises you anything, you should assume that he is likely planning to do the opposite (if he has already decided on any course of action), or that his actions will be in no way constraint by the promise (if he has not).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on April 18, 2014, 11:36:55 AM
One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27076226)

I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Intelligence officers can be ignored or removed from the equation... sometimes permanently.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 18, 2014, 03:28:54 PM
One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27076226)

I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Intelligence officers can be ignored or removed from the equation... sometimes permanently.

There is exactly no evidence of that happening. And ample evidence that they are very much in control. In fact, it is going far beyond intelligence officers: a lot of the people on the ground are simply Russian soldiers pretty much in uniform, just without insignia. This is pretty much documented at this point. In fact, at least some of these people seem to be the same as in Crimea last month - they have been recognized.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on April 19, 2014, 10:49:27 AM
US troops are being deployed to Poland (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2014/04/18/u-s-ground-troops-going-to-poland-defense-minister-says/?hpid=z1).

Also, Russia's economy was apparently already deteriorating even before sanctions were imposed (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/world/europe/russia-economy-worsens-even-before-sanctions-hit.html). 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 19, 2014, 12:01:28 PM
Also, Russia's economy was apparently already deteriorating even before sanctions were imposed (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/world/europe/russia-economy-worsens-even-before-sanctions-hit.html). 

That has been brought up before.  It's even entirely possible Putin has caused the crisis so as to give him an excuse for the economy once it becomes more apparent that it's gone bad.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MalaspinaGold on April 21, 2014, 10:51:55 AM
NY Times: rabble rousers in Eastern Ukraine confirmed to be Russian special forces:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/world/europe/photos-link-masked-men-in-east-ukraine-to-russia.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/world/europe/photos-link-masked-men-in-east-ukraine-to-russia.html?_r=0)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on April 21, 2014, 11:57:09 AM
Well, after annexing some countries, maybe Russia will go bankruptcy :D


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 21, 2014, 10:21:41 PM
Stalin 2.0 murdering Tatars en masse already. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/21/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-tatars-idUSBREA3K0BH20140421)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 22, 2014, 09:13:58 AM
Stalin 2.0 murdering Tatars en masse already. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/21/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-tatars-idUSBREA3K0BH20140421)

That one is, actually scary. It has no legal consequences (everything of consequence has been done multiple times already), but is a really dangerous sign. Whenever Putin makes statements of this sort, his intentions are almost the opposite: he is reminding the Tartars of the past, threatening them, that their fate Is in his hands. BTW, they already followed this up by prohibiting Mustafa Dzhemilev (the Crimean Gandhi, really) from returning to Crimea.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 22, 2014, 09:43:12 AM
Has Mustafa Dzhemilev said what his plans are? He's still a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Also, what's up with Lyudmyla Denisova? She's from Crimea and she's Minister of Social Policy in the Ukrainian government. Has she said what she's going to do?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 22, 2014, 10:28:30 AM
Has Mustafa Dzhemilev said what his plans are? He's still a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Also, what's up with Lyudmyla Denisova? She's from Crimea and she's Minister of Social Policy in the Ukrainian government. Has she said what she's going to do?

Dzhemilev is loyal to Ukraine. He has said it many times, that the Tatar movement will be doing whatever the Ukrainian leadership decides. But they also have to protect their people. They did delegate some representatives to work with the de facto authorities in Crimea. They are in a tough spot. They hate Russia, but they do not want to be deported again - and Putin is perfectly capable of that.

Some of the Ukrainian MPs from Crimea have resigned, but others are continuing. As for a cabinet member, I do not see why one would go: she is not representing Crimea, she is a Ukrainian citizen working in Ukrainian government. Crimea is not even her birthplace - she was born in Russia, in Arkhangelsk. Yes, she spent part of her career there - but, then, so did PM Yatsenyuk.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 22, 2014, 06:27:51 PM
Well, Dzhemilev´s expulsion is confirmed. He has been spending most of his time in Kiev, as he is a Ukrainian MP. When he last went back to Simferopol, a couple of days ago, he was stopped at the border, but allowed in after a consultation with Moscow. However, as he was leaving back for Kiev today he was issued a notification, that he is banned from "Russian Federation" (which, of course, from the standpoint of the Russians now includes Crimea) for 5 years. As he himself says, he has no intention of visiting Russia itself (since 1986, when he was last released from a Russian prison, he has only been there once: a month ago, for negotiations with Putin), but  Crimea is another matter.

Interestingly, Dzhemilev's interview to Ukrainian TV was bilingual. The journalist spoke Ukrainian, he responded in Russian (tried using a Ukrainian word in his first sentence, but, basically, gave up). Of course, his native tongue is Crimean Tartar, and he had to learn Russian, but, being an old man, he never learned Ukrainian properly. Still, his jacket has a large Ukrainian flag pin on it - not doubts about his allegiance whatsoever.

And, just in case, somebody does not know who is Dzhemilev. He was one of the most distinguished Soviet dissidents. I have been hearing his name since before I can remember.  The Crimean Tartar non-violent campaign for return to Crimea has always been one of the most active and admired parts of the dissident movement in the USSR. Dzhemilev was its major leader since... forever. He spent many years in Soviet camps for this. He is, probably, the closest any Soviet people had to Gandhi or Mandela.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on April 23, 2014, 03:58:47 PM
If Ukrainians are really wary of Russia, why does there seem to be little indication? If the U.S. was under threat of invasion, at the very least, you would see Americans out in the streets in safe cities protesting and burning up pictures of Putin. Where are all the protesters from Maidan? This crisis is to a large degree psychological. The Ukrainian forces are demoralized. A large show of support in Kiev would do wonders for Ukrainian morale, for the overall narrative, as well as, IMO, for Western public opinion about Ukraine. Yet western Ukraine is silent.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 23, 2014, 10:26:01 PM
America would have a chance against Russia.

Ukraine wouldn't.

That's why they aren't making a lot of noise. They are trying not to provoke a full scale invasion.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 24, 2014, 05:33:59 AM
()


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 24, 2014, 06:42:18 AM
While my sympathies are with the Ukrainians. even I have to to say that's some pretty blatant propaganda.  At least it's closer to reality than what Putin's friends have shat out.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 24, 2014, 08:10:31 AM
While I don't want to see Ukraine dismembered and I certainly don't like Putin, I just hope to see this place free of nationalistic propaganda.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on April 24, 2014, 08:55:53 AM
America would have a chance against Russia.

Ukraine wouldn't.

That's why they aren't making a lot of noise. They are trying not to provoke a full scale invasion.

Peaceful demonstrations in Kiev would provoke a full scale invasion?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ilikeverin on April 24, 2014, 02:10:14 PM

omg, I want to be friends with Local Separatist.  She seems like fun!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 25, 2014, 01:51:41 AM
Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on April 25, 2014, 01:16:02 PM
Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 25, 2014, 01:46:06 PM
Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.

What is it that you believe to be a "satisfactory conclusion"?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: afleitch on April 25, 2014, 04:59:20 PM
Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MATTROSE94 on April 25, 2014, 05:47:55 PM
Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.
Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 25, 2014, 06:23:06 PM
Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.
Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?
Not likely at all.  I don't think that would happen even if Russian tanks roll into Donetsk.  What could happen is a total breaking off of economic relations, including severing of Russia from the world financial system which would severely hamper its trade even with those countries that continue to trade with it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on April 25, 2014, 06:27:28 PM
Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.

What is it that you believe to be a "satisfactory conclusion"?

Where it becomes much less likely that Ukraine is invaded and Ukraine is not invaded.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 25, 2014, 10:56:16 PM
Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.
Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?
Not likely at all.  I don't think that would happen even if Russian tanks roll into Donetsk.  What could happen is a total breaking off of economic relations, including severing of Russia from the world financial system which would severely hamper its trade even with those countries that continue to trade with it.

We never broke relations with the USSR, so I don't see us breaking off with Russia unless we directly go to war with them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 26, 2014, 03:59:30 AM
A group of OSCE military observers led by a German army colonel has been taken prisoner by a pro-Russian militia group in Sloviansk.

Militia leader accuses them of espionage, but says he's willing to trade them against imprisoned separatists.

It took only two months for Ukraine to turn into friggin Afghanistan. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Sec. of State Superique on April 27, 2014, 08:28:38 AM
I have this feeling that Ukranians will end up having to accept Russia taking over Crimea but I fo believe that peace is yet possible. Ukraine shall be allowed to join in the European Union in exchange it doesn't enter in NATO and give more autonomy to its Oblasts.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2014, 09:00:39 AM
Nobody has considered seriously amongst European governments that Ukraine was going to be admitted in the EU anytime soon. I think Poroshenko has stated his country is not yet ready and, on the other hand, joining NATO is too divisive and can "ruin the country".

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/198839.html

On the other hand, a certain degree of decentralisation plus reverting the measures on Russian language taken by the interim government look reasonable. However, Putin might want to create a Republika SPRSKA in Eastern Ukraine and that would be certainly unacceptable.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 28, 2014, 05:12:02 AM
The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 28, 2014, 08:44:13 AM
I have this feeling that Ukranians will end up having to accept Russia taking over Crimea but I fo believe that peace is yet possible. Ukraine shall be allowed to join in the European Union in exchange it doesn't enter in NATO and give more autonomy to its Oblasts.

Crimea will be de facto Russian for some time. Ukraine will not "accept" it (that would be a betrayal of the Tartars), but there is little that can be done about it right now. But Putin will lead Russia into a sufficient disaster, eventually, to loose it - no real reason for Ukraine to drop the claim. Though, of course, no active actions will be taken - but neither will the sanctions be removed.

Ukraine will not be able to enter the EU meaningfully any time soon: too poor and too underdeveloped. It can, and should, enter NATO though: it needs protection. If, of course, NATO is really a protection. In any case, whatever Ukraine does cannot be conditioned on any agreements with Russia. Russia is incapable of making agreements under its current regime: the only certainty about its behavior is that it will violate any agreement it signs.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 28, 2014, 09:34:48 AM
The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.

Moderate PORer. Shot by either pro-Russians or Ukrainians trying to frame Russians.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 28, 2014, 11:00:39 AM
The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.

Moderate PORer. Shot by either pro-Russians or Ukrainians trying to frame Russians.

Maybe he wasn't enough of a social conservative and too much of a fiscal conservative to have any firm base in the Luhansk caucuses.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on April 28, 2014, 11:01:31 AM
I have this feeling that Ukranians will end up having to accept Russia taking over Crimea but I fo believe that peace is yet possible. Ukraine shall be allowed to join in the European Union in exchange it doesn't enter in NATO and give more autonomy to its Oblasts.

Crimea will be de facto Russian for some time. Ukraine will not "accept" it (that would be a betrayal of the Tartars), but there is little that can be done about it right now. But Putin will lead Russia into a sufficient disaster, eventually, to loose it - no real reason for Ukraine to drop the claim. Though, of course, no active actions will be taken - but neither will the sanctions be removed.

Exactly; the US never recognised the incorporation of the Baltic states into the USSR in 1940 and it took 50 years before they were independent again.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 28, 2014, 11:42:13 AM
There's at least one problem with that thesis, and is that there's a majority of 'ethnic' Russians in Crimea -not to mention Sevastopol-. Anyway, who knows what will happen in the next decades? One thing is sure and is that Putin is uglifying this world, and it was ugly enough before this crisis. Did anyone read his speech on 'Novaya Rossiya'?

As for Crimean Tatars, I feel concern on them. Did the interim government help them declaring traitors those who accepted Russian passports knowing that they are under pressure?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 28, 2014, 01:11:16 PM
There's at least one problem with that thesis, and is that there's a majority of 'ethnic' Russians in Crimea -not to mention Sevastopol-. Anyway, who knows what will happen in the next decades? One thing is sure and is that Putin is uglifying this world, and it was ugly enough before this crisis. Did anyone read his speech on 'Novaya Rossiya'?

As for Crimean Tatars, I feel concern on them. Did the interim government help them declaring traitors those who accepted Russian passports knowing that they are under pressure?

1. Well, who knows how many Russian states there will be out there when all of this is over :) Anyways, given the Russian track record, I will not be surprised if many of those Russians leave for the mainland, rather then enjoy the Russian governance in situ. I would be pleasantly surprised in fact, if Crimean population (including Sevastopol)  is much bigger than 1.5 mln (as compared to about 2.5 now) in 20 years . And by then, with Ukraine well on the path to EU membership and Russia still a pariah, many of the remaining Russians will be tempted to remember they have the right to the Ukrainian citizenship.

2. Tartar and current Ukrainian leadership are working in extremely close contact. Dzhemilev - the undisputed leader of the Tartar movement - is in Kiev and in the Rada. I believe (though on this one I may be wrong) Chubarov (Dzhemilev's heir apparent as the head of the movement) is also spending much of his time in Kiev. So is  I stronly doubt that anything has been/ will be done about the status of Crimean residents without their agreement - if not always on their active advice.  The movement has delegated some representatives to work with the de facto Crimean authorities - as these are delegated, I have no doubts they will be forgiven for any "collaboration".  Of course, any of the marginal "alternative" leaders Russia might try to find will be severely ostracized within the community - the Tartars have been united in dissidence for so long, they know how to maintain unity.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 28, 2014, 02:21:23 PM
I see a problem and is that Dzhemilev is in Kiev, as you say, while the Tatars are currently under Russian de facto authorities. Aside this ethnic minority, there was people opposed to Crimea's annexation or at least not very favourable, but they have to live there and they need Russian passports. Also, from what I've been reading, many have family in Ukraine and, on having been declared 'traitors', they are banned from Ukraine's mainland. I think this is the kind of measures, alongside with the suppression of the status of Russian language in the SE and maybe others, that alienate a significant part of the population and, honestly, everybody should be interested in stabilizing the country. I'll never understand why nobody advises the interim government that some coalition partners should be expelled. Also, there is the question of the power vacuum created in the SE after the removal of Yanukovich. The PoR seems to be disintegrating and, like it or not, that corrupt and feudal structure (I don't have a great opinion of the other parties, but that's another question) was the one who was giving some political cohesion to those regions. Putin is obviously taking advantage of the situation. I suppose the only option is trying to reach a compromise with PoR 'moderates' (whatever that means in this context) and magnates like Akhmetov. It looks like hard to achieve with ultranationalists enjoying prominence.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 28, 2014, 10:42:54 PM
I see a problem and is that Dzhemilev is in Kiev, as you say, while the Tatars are currently under Russian de facto authorities. Aside this ethnic minority, there was people opposed to Crimea's annexation or at least not very favourable, but they have to live there and they need Russian passports. Also, from what I've been reading, many have family in Ukraine and, on having been declared 'traitors', they are banned from Ukraine's mainland. I think this is the kind of measures, alongside with the suppression of the status of Russian language in the SE and maybe others, that alienate a significant part of the population and, honestly, everybody should be interested in stabilizing the country. I'll never understand why nobody advises the interim government that some coalition partners should be expelled. Also, there is the question of the power vacuum created in the SE after the removal of Yanukovich. The PoR seems to be disintegrating and, like it or not, that corrupt and feudal structure (I don't have a great opinion of the other parties, but that's another question) was the one who was giving some political cohesion to those regions. Putin is obviously taking advantage of the situation. I suppose the only option is trying to reach a compromise with PoR 'moderates' (whatever that means in this context) and magnates like Akhmetov. It looks like hard to achieve with ultranationalists enjoying prominence.

I am afraid, your understanding of the situation is at wide variance with reality. Perhaps, if you cared to investigate, you would know that they have not been declared traitors, nor have they been banned from the mainland. Ukrainian government is, in fact, repeatedly stressing that it continues considering all Crimeans its citizens, and cares abiout them. It is still doing its best to provide services - if long distance. There has been no wholesale repudiation of Crimean population - Tartar or Slavic.  Rather, there are reated statements to the opposite effect.

Dzhemilev is the main accepted political leader of the Tartars. And he does care about the well-being of his people - who, by and large, are loyal to Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 28, 2014, 10:50:56 PM
As for the situation in the East, I do not know where to begin. The local magnates have been appointed governors with full powers (that is who the governors in the East are today). The central government itself is overwhelmingly Eastern - very few of its members have any ties with the West (many more are from Russia, than from Lviv). The only radical nationalist party in the government is Svoboda - and it has been kept away from the important posts. All the major leaders are moderates. Not that it much matters: they will not be in government within a month, after an election. In which almost all candidates (all with any chance of mattering) are Eastern or Southern. I do not know where you get your info - but it is bizarre.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 29, 2014, 02:46:55 AM
Breaking: Gerhard Schröder celebrates his 70th birthday with Putin in Moscow.

And the bromance continues!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 29, 2014, 04:03:18 AM
Germany's KSK (Special Forces Command) has denied reports that they're planning a rescure operation for the OSCE hostages in Sloviansk.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 29, 2014, 10:13:47 AM
As for the situation in the East, I do not know where to begin. The local magnates have been appointed governors with full powers (that is who the governors in the East are today). The central government itself is overwhelmingly Eastern - very few of its members have any ties with the West (many more are from Russia, than from Lviv). The only radical nationalist party in the government is Svoboda - and it has been kept away from the important posts. All the major leaders are moderates. Not that it much matters: they will not be in government within a month, after an election. In which almost all candidates (all with any chance of mattering) are Eastern or Southern. I do not know where you get your info - but it is bizarre.

Don't get me wrong, I didn't mean that the whole government is ultranationalist and I know that the likely winner in the next election was born in the Odessa region. However, I think that having Svoboda in the coalition has damaged the interim government. On the one hand, it gives some justification for one of the Putin's favourite strawmen (the government is "fascist"); on the other hand, it contributes to spread unrest in the SE, where many people consider the government "illegitimate". It will be good news if Svoboda is expelled after the elections and luckily radical candidates have little traction in the polls. Anyway the damage is done, specially when they have led lamentable actions like that aggression to the Ukraine's TV boss. These things have more relevancy than the portfolios they keep in the government. I don't unerstand why they remain.

As for the East, Taruta looked confident in this interview 4 days ago:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/25/billionaire-ukraine-troubled-region-serhiy-taruta

However, in the light of last events it's clear that the government has lost control and I think it's important to know what's happening with the remainders of the PoR. Reports look confusing and they seem to be ambivalent and divided:

Quote
As in Crimea immediately after the toppling of Viktor Yanukovych, there is currently a volatile political vacuum in the Donbas. The homegrown pro-Russian movement (with its Russian support) is currently filling the void. The Party of the Regions of Ukraine (PRU) was effectively decapitated when Yanukoyvch and his coterie fled the country; it is divided nationally over the selection of the former governor of Kharkiv, Mykhailo Dobkin, as its official presidential candidate.

Dobkin, who polled less than 4% in a recent opinion poll, appears to have been selected over the more popular billionaire Serhiy Tihipko because of Dobkin’s close association with the tycoon Rinat Akhmetov, a major party supporter.

http://theconversation.com/ukrainian-troops-fight-to-fill-easts-dangerous-power-vacuum-25457

Later, that article describes the divisions inside the Party of Regions in Donetsk.

Quote
The local political elite do not seem to have an agreed position on what the Donbas-Kiev relationship should be; nor can they agree how bold their demands for regional autonomy should be. The pro-Russian movement makes it difficult for the local elite to articulate the case for autonomy within Ukraine without playing into the hands of Russia and the local separatist minority (...)

In other article Nikolai Lechenko, the PoR leader in Donetsk, states the population in the East thinks that the government is "illegitimate" and seized power in a "coup d'état" (that argument isn't new) but they are "ready to recognize the very demon", in order to avoid a bloodshed and civil war because "it's very important today to contain the radical state of mind in the southeast of the country ". In the same article that I'll link below is quoted some local analyst depicting the current state of PoR as "a person who had been ruined at the same time as the doctor diagnoses a critical illness and his couple leaves him, but even this way it's necessary as expression of the southeast of Ukraine". I don't know if you may think it's bizarre, but the lack of articulation of those who are not separatists but seek for autonomy seems worrying.

 http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/04/26/actualidad/1398537205_471010.html

On the other hand, I might be wrong or my memory failed me in what regards 'traitors' or people banned from Ukraine. In any case, I'm lacking the time. I'll give for good what you said in the previous post and apologise if you felt offended in any way.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 29, 2014, 12:51:59 PM
PoR does not exist at this point as a unit. It has broken into multiple pieces, its most popular politicians (even in the East) have been expelled. Whom are you suggesting the government should incorporate? And why would they want to be incorporated into a government that will not be a government within a month. I am afraid, your "suggestions" cannot be even formulated in a way that anybody in Ukraine would be able to understand. Who should be incorporated into what?

The inclusion of Svoboda in the government was inevitable. Especially given that except for the Batkivschina nobody else was willing to join. It is not as if being in this government were a prize anybody would be willing to die for. This is a provisional government, with little power and an extremely short term, operating in a highly stressful environment. Svoboda does represent a block in the Rada - that is a given, unfortunately. And, for god's sake, they are a lot less fascist then, say, BJP in India.

As for the talking points it gives to Putin... Listen, Putin, would be declaring Mahatma Gandhi and Winston Churchill fascists today, if that were to suite him. And he would be repeating it as many times as necessary for somebody to believe it. The guy has not said an honest word in years (if ever) - what he says is entirely unconstrained by reality. One should have long learnt to completely disregard whatever he says - except as a rough guide to his actions: as he tends to do the opposite from what he says he intends, his words are, occasionally, unintentionally informative. There is nothing the Ukrainians can do to change that - they could have appointed a full government of canonized Orthodox saints - Russian discourse would be identical.





Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 29, 2014, 12:54:35 PM
Breaking: Gerhard Schröder celebrates his 70th birthday with Putin in Moscow.

And the bromance continues!

Would it be possible to include him in the sanctions list?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on April 29, 2014, 04:00:00 PM
Considering the political views of many orthodox saints would he be so wrong.... :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 29, 2014, 04:55:07 PM
As for the talking points it gives to Putin... Listen, Putin, would be declaring Mahatma Gandhi and Winston Churchill fascists today, if that were to suite him.

Churchill, in fairness, was one of the worst mass murderers of the 20th century depending on how responsible you hold him for the Bengal famine and for the various unnecessary and ineffective British strikes on civilian targets in occupied Europe (as opposed to the more effective American bombing campaigns).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on April 29, 2014, 04:58:22 PM
As for the talking points it gives to Putin... Listen, Putin, would be declaring Mahatma Gandhi and Winston Churchill fascists today, if that were to suite him.

Churchill, in fairness, was one of the worst mass murderers of the 20th century depending on how responsible you hold him for the Bengal famine and for the various unnecessary and ineffective British strikes on civilian targets in occupied Europe (as opposed to the more effective American bombing campaigns).
That however does not make him a fascist.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: free my dawg on April 29, 2014, 05:22:16 PM
Though I expect it to be thoroughly parodied and referenced until well after its expiration date like the infamous apology thread, I feel I should announce something. I'd make a big effortpost about this, but I'm rather tired and have work to do so I'll condense it to the important parts:

  • Yes, I see how my "sage" is insufferable to some. To a large extent that was the point of it, though I've long passed the point where I'm getting tired of and annoyed by my own forum persona.
  • A lowdown on my actual views: Very left-wing, though rather more nuanced than I let on. I mostly dumbed them down in a misguided effort to combat/make fun of the dominant political perspective on this forum (progressive liberalism) which I'm finding more and more annoying.
  • I'm currently receiving weekly therapy for reasons unrelated to what I do on the forum, though I find that in some ways Atlas is a bit of a coping mechanism for me.
  • I won't be posting (or more likely, maybe posting once every couple days) for a while, though I fully expect to return in full force at some point. Hopefully my affected forum schtick will have mostly died by that point, though given past attempts at "reforming" I shouldn't make any absolute promises. I will most definitely continue to lurk on the forum and if my hiatus lasts long enough will probably be a zombie voter in Atlasia (and since it's barely connected to Atlas I'll probably stay in that game Lumine's doing).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on April 29, 2014, 07:07:38 PM
PoR does not exist at this point as a unit. It has broken into multiple pieces, its most popular politicians (even in the East) have been expelled. Whom are you suggesting the government should incorporate? And why would they want to be incorporated into a government that will not be a government within a month. I am afraid, your "suggestions" cannot be even formulated in a way that anybody in Ukraine would be able to understand. Who should be incorporated into what?

I don't recall any 'suggestion' apart from expelling Svoboda or a previous comment about reaching some compromise with politicians or personalities from the region. I don't know if the government can incorporate some elements from the PoR or others expelled from that party. If it's possible, perhaps it would be a better solution trying some form of 'national unity'. Is it unrealistic? On the other hand, I'm getting the impression that someone or something has to fill the void in Donetsk and the other places.

Apparently, Khodorkovski was in Kharkiv before the attempt against the mayor because he's promoting a 'Russia-Ukraine' forum. He says he expect that Ukraine will succeed because it would be helpful for the democratization of Russia. It seems that the local Euro Maidan group has been meeting with Anti Maidan activists. The spokeswoman of the Kharkiv Euro Maidan says that it's necessary taking into account and respecting the interests of Russian speakers in order to keep the unity of Ukraine. I wish them luck, what else could I say?   


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on April 29, 2014, 08:22:45 PM
PoR does not exist at this point as a unit. It has broken into multiple pieces, its most popular politicians (even in the East) have been expelled. Whom are you suggesting the government should incorporate? And why would they want to be incorporated into a government that will not be a government within a month. I am afraid, your "suggestions" cannot be even formulated in a way that anybody in Ukraine would be able to understand. Who should be incorporated into what?

I don't recall any 'suggestion' apart from expelling Svoboda or a previous comment about reaching some compromise with politicians or personalities from the region. I don't know if the government can incorporate some elements from the PoR or others expelled from that party. If it's possible, perhaps it would be a better solution trying some form of 'national unity'. Is it unrealistic? On the other hand, I'm getting the impression that someone or something has to fill the void in Donetsk and the other places.

Apparently, Khodorkovski was in Kharkiv before the attempt against the mayor because he's promoting a 'Russia-Ukraine' forum. He says he expect that Ukraine will succeed because it would be helpful for the democratization of Russia. It seems that the local Euro Maidan group has been meeting with Anti Maidan activists. The spokeswoman of the Kharkiv Euro Maidan says that it's necessary taking into account and respecting the interests of Russian speakers in order to keep the unity of Ukraine. I wish them luck, what else could I say?   

They have already incorporated in the government several personalities from the region. Interior Minister (Avakov) grew up and spent his entire political career in Kharkiv. Social Policy Minister (Denisova) is, in fact, from Crimea. All the governors are local. The only two parties that agreed to join the provisional government were the Batkyvshchyna and Svoboda - nobody else wanted to touch it. Half the government is, really, non-partisan. As for the ex-PoR politicians - they are either badly discredited (the Yanukovich crowd), irreconcilable with Ukraine´s existence (Tsarev) running for presidency (Tihipko) or in intensive care (Kernes).

Eastern Ukraine is crucial for free Russia. If they manage to create an alternative Russian cultural space, it will be the outlet for all of us. But the only danger for that comes from the East - not from the west. Except for having to file the tax declaration and an occasional other forom in Ukrainian most people in the East have not, really, had much to do with that language. Russian is at least as predominant everywhere there, as (Castillian) Spanish is in Alicante or Galicia. Most schools and nearly all universities are overwhelmingly functioning in Russian. Yes, you have to take Ukrainian literature and history in Ukrainian - but that was the case under the Soviets as well (which, of course, means that all those who grew up in Eastern Ukraine claim to have passed the Ukrainian language high school graduation exams: their Soviet school certificates - which they happily received at the time even though they were all written in Ukrainian, as was the Soviet custom - say so). Workplaces (including government) are nearly all-Russian. So are the newspapers, TV, etc., etc.  And filling out that occasional form in Ukrainian is no harder for a Russian speaker than for a Spanish speaker to fill out a form in Gallego or in Catalan - it isn´t Basque we are talking about, the languages are related. I never lived in Ukraine in my life, never had a formal instruction in the language at all, but ,having on occasion practiced reading Ukrainian-language newspapers, I can usually figure out it  - push comes to shove, an occasional word may have to be googled.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on April 30, 2014, 08:57:03 PM
The central authorities in Kiev have acknowledged that Russia and its minions have won eastern Ukraine (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/01/world/europe/ukraine.html?hp).

So Russia has annexed Crimea, and effectively has a friendly puppet regime in eastern Ukraine. 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 01, 2014, 09:35:03 AM
Putin is now demanding the Ukrainian troops pull out of the region. This is Putin's endgame - fill the region with your people, then declare fait accompli, betting that the opposition will be too intimidated and psychologically defeated to resist. Keep doing this until all territorial demands are met.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 01, 2014, 10:15:51 AM
If he is allowed to get away with it (and he will be allowed to get away with it), he will continue. It would be A LOT easier to do this in, say, Narva than in Donetsk. Unlike Donetsk, Narva IS overwhelmingly Russian-populated, and many of those Russians are, in fact, Russian citizens. Everybody should understand: the only way to stop Putin is to confront him. If this is not done soon (and, I am pretty sure it will not be), we are moving towards a major international war, most likely nuclear, within the next five years. Avoiding confrontation will lead to millions of dead - and soon.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 01, 2014, 10:26:18 AM
I have to say, if this continues I don't see anything stopping Putin from trying to reconstitute much of Tsarist Russia. That said, ag, I think the main factor will be, as I mentioned before, the local population's willingness to resist & how much they value their independence from Russia. Afghanistan and Chechnya have shown that even small, powerless populations can imposing punishing costs on a behemoth if they are determined to do so. The main reason Putin is winning is because there is very little resistance. People are either afraid or simply don't care whether they are absorbed into Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 01, 2014, 11:10:16 AM
I have to say, if this continues I don't see anything stopping Putin from trying to reconstitute much of Tsarist Russia. That said, ag, I think the main factor will be, as I mentioned before, the local population's willingness to resist & how much they value their independence from Russia. Afghanistan and Chechnya have shown that even small, powerless populations can imposing punishing costs on a behemoth if they are determined to do so. The main reason Putin is winning is because there is very little resistance. People are either afraid or simply don't care whether they are absorbed into Russia.

Yes, they are scared. And so will be you.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 01, 2014, 11:14:45 AM
You really think Putin is going to start a nuclear war?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 01, 2014, 01:32:56 PM
You really think Putin is going to start a nuclear war?

Eventually. He does not want it: he will grow into it gradually. At some point he will move in too far: be that to Estonia, to Poland, or beyond. At that point the West will respond with force. In terms of conventional force - and even more so in terms of resources available - of course, Russia is no match. But Putin is already drunk with success - and he will be even more convinced of his invincibility at that point, so he will miscalculate. Defeats will start - that will be what will lead him to first threaten, and then use the nukes. At every point almost until he presses the button he will think that the West is weak and will not dare not to surrender. And once he realizes that the West dares, he will be too enraged and too desperate to care.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 01, 2014, 02:20:08 PM
So, essentially, you are saying that the end is nigh for mankind?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: jaichind on May 01, 2014, 02:21:18 PM
I see what is going on in Eastern Ukraine in less strategically grandiose terms.  It seems to me it is mostly a way to make sure that the May elections cannot take place in Eastern Ukraine and as a result Russia and those in Eastern Ukraine hostile to the current Kiev regime can claim that the new president is not legitimate so the current stalemate will continue.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 01, 2014, 02:53:02 PM
ag, I think you have a form of Putin derangement syndrome, although I'm not sure why. The man is capable of horrible things, but he is not that stupid.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on May 01, 2014, 04:29:53 PM
I have to say, if this continues I don't see anything stopping Putin from trying to reconstitute much of Tsarist Russia. That said, ag, I think the main factor will be, as I mentioned before, the local population's willingness to resist & how much they value their independence from Russia. Afghanistan and Chechnya have shown that even small, powerless populations can imposing punishing costs on a behemoth if they are determined to do so. The main reason Putin is winning is because there is very little resistance. People are either afraid or simply don't care whether they are absorbed into Russia.

Mountains is a key factor in this. If Afghanistan and Chechnya had the geography of Ukraine they wouldn't have been able to resist for long.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 01, 2014, 06:17:40 PM
ag, I think you have a form of Putin derangement syndrome, although I'm not sure why. The man is capable of horrible things, but he is not that stupid.

He is: that is the point. I know the type well: he is a fairly ordinary KGB guy, just one who got lucky. He is not even really evil.  It is just that his understanding of the world around him is fairly limited. He thinks he is strong, and everybody else is weak. It is machismo at its extreme. Show him he is not the top dog, and he will run, tail between his legs. But it is suicidal to let him think you do not dare kick him bad: he will take that as weakness, and he attacks the weak.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 01, 2014, 06:19:42 PM
So, essentially, you are saying that the end is nigh for mankind?

Well, if the mankind is willing to hit Putin really bad really soon, then no. Otherwise: I guess, the world can survive without a few big cities. Pity, I have spent 2/3 of my life in two of them (Moscow and New York)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on May 01, 2014, 08:47:48 PM
Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on May 02, 2014, 04:40:43 AM
Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

That's just silly, losing your life is a big deal for everyone. Geography is the main difference, you need adequate terrain (mountains, jungles, swamps) to fight a superior enemy.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 08:07:19 AM
Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

That's just silly, losing your life is a big deal for everyone. Geography is the main difference, you need adequate terrain (mountains, jungles, swamps) to fight a superior enemy.

Ukrainians fought for 9 years after WWII. So did Lithuanians. But for the moment they are trying to avoid the full-scale war. Civilians try to demonstrate: they have been badly hurt in several Donetsk cities. It is too early for a partisan war to have started: let us hope it never does.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on May 02, 2014, 08:19:42 AM
Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

That's just silly, losing your life is a big deal for everyone. Geography is the main difference, you need adequate terrain (mountains, jungles, swamps) to fight a superior enemy.

Ukrainians fought for 9 years after WWII. So did Lithuanians. But for the moment they are trying to avoid the full-scale war. Civilians try to demonstrate: they have been badly hurt in several Donetsk cities. It is too early for a partisan war to have started: let us hope it never does.

Thats counting some very small groups in the end.

But OK, Ill qualify it: to fight succesfully against a superior enemy you need adequate terrain. A sustained partisan war in some remote forests and swamps is not enough in itself.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 02, 2014, 08:52:44 AM
If Russia does a full-scale invasion (I don't think they will because they don't have to), I doubt there will be a large-scale partisan war simply due to the terrain; from a geographic standpoint Ukraine is a very easy country to roll into compared to Afghanistan or Vietnam.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 09:19:00 AM
If Russia does a full-scale invasion (I don't think they will because they don't have to), I doubt there will be a large-scale partisan war simply due to the terrain; from a geographic standpoint Ukraine is a very easy country to roll into compared to Afghanistan or Vietnam.

Soviet Union needed 9 years of full concentration - with the experienced army, coming straight out of WWII. You underestimate both Ukraine and Ukrainians. But it was awfully bloody and cruel the last time - on both sides. God forbid it happens again.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 09:22:26 AM
Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

That's just silly, losing your life is a big deal for everyone. Geography is the main difference, you need adequate terrain (mountains, jungles, swamps) to fight a superior enemy.

Ukrainians fought for 9 years after WWII. So did Lithuanians. But for the moment they are trying to avoid the full-scale war. Civilians try to demonstrate: they have been badly hurt in several Donetsk cities. It is too early for a partisan war to have started: let us hope it never does.

Thats counting some very small groups in the end.

But OK, Ill qualify it: to fight succesfully against a superior enemy you need adequate terrain. A sustained partisan war in some remote forests and swamps is not enough in itself.


A partisan war is a horrible thing. There is a reason people do not start it lightly. If Russia continues, it may well happen. If it does, it will be a horrid humanitarian crisis, believe me.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MATTROSE94 on May 02, 2014, 10:26:52 AM
You really think Putin is going to start a nuclear war?

Eventually. He does not want it: he will grow into it gradually. At some point he will move in too far: be that to Estonia, to Poland, or beyond. At that point the West will respond with force. In terms of conventional force - and even more so in terms of resources available - of course, Russia is no match. But Putin is already drunk with success - and he will be even more convinced of his invincibility at that point, so he will miscalculate. Defeats will start - that will be what will lead him to first threaten, and then use the nukes. At every point almost until he presses the button he will think that the West is weak and will not dare not to surrender. And once he realizes that the West dares, he will be too enraged and too desperate to care.
I do think that there is a slight possibility that NATO will eventually end up going to war with Russia over their actions in Ukraine and possible incursions into Poland and Estonia, but I don't think that Putin will be stupid enough to end up using nuclear weapons against the U.S. or NATO.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 02, 2014, 11:24:55 AM
If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 11:38:26 AM
If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: jaichind on May 02, 2014, 12:17:10 PM
It seems that in the Russian speaking city of Odessa the pro-Russians are also beginning their protests.  This might be supported by the Russians in Transnistria. Several people killed already.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on May 02, 2014, 12:28:43 PM
Soviet Union needed 9 years of full concentration - with the experienced army, coming straight out of WWII. You underestimate both Ukraine and Ukrainians. But it was awfully bloody and cruel the last time - on both sides. God forbid it happens again.

The Soviets by no means had to "fully concentrate" against the minor Ukrainian insurgency after WWII. You are dramatically overstating the effectiveness and scale of the Ukrainian insurgency. They were never a real threat to the Soviet State, they were a pest.

You're acting like the Ukrainian insurgency after WWII was some kind of major war.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 12:49:20 PM
It seems that in the Russian speaking city of Odessa the pro-Russians are also beginning their protests.  This might be supported by the Russians in Transnistria. Several people killed already.

Actually, there was a major pro-Ukrainian demonstration, which was attacked by pro-Russian forces. Let us keep terminology straight: the protests are pro-Ukrainian, the attacks are pro-Russian.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 01:00:05 PM
Soviet Union needed 9 years of full concentration - with the experienced army, coming straight out of WWII. You underestimate both Ukraine and Ukrainians. But it was awfully bloody and cruel the last time - on both sides. God forbid it happens again.

The Soviets by no means had to "fully concentrate" against the minor Ukrainian insurgency after WWII. You are dramatically overstating the effectiveness and scale of the Ukrainian insurgency. They were never a real threat to the Soviet State, they were a pest.

You're acting like the Ukrainian insurgency after WWII was some kind of major war.

Locally, it was.  There were many victims, both in Ukraine and in Lithuania. I had a great-uncle (who just died a few days ago). Upon graduation from a law school around 1950 he was offered a choice between a job in a town in Lithuania and another in a rural district in Russia´s far north (rural parts of the Arkhangelsk province). Even though he was an urban dweller (had lived for years in Leningrad), and even though he had been badly wounded in the War and doctors insisted that he needed a warmer climate, he did not hesitate: mortality among the Soviet officials in Lithuania was simply too high to even consider going there.  And big chunks of Western Ukraine were worse.

It was a very cruel guerrilla war, and it was active for years. Yes, it was suppressed: but, then, the Soviets managed to suppress Chechnya as well. Of course, they simply deported the Chechens - but, then, again, their policies in big chunks of Ukraine were not much different: mass deportations, if not as wholesale as in the Caucasus. And the number of Ukrainian nationalists in Soviet camps was always staggering: and their terms were horrendous. Many people wound up spending well over 25 years in jail. Ukrainian nationalism for years continued to be one of the greatest fears of the Soviet officialdom - and that is, despite complete lack of any support from abroad (the world accepted Soviet domination of Ukraine without a question).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 02, 2014, 01:12:14 PM
If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.

Not really. To go further west, Putin needs unrest on a scale similar to Ukraine prior to the toppling of the previous government.  I don't see that happening in the Baltics.  At most he annexes Transnistria once it borders Russia, but the necessary conditions to go further west don't exist.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 02:06:23 PM
If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.

Not really. To go further west, Putin needs unrest on a scale similar to Ukraine prior to the toppling of the previous government.  I don't see that happening in the Baltics.  At most he annexes Transnistria once it borders Russia, but the necessary conditions to go further west don't exist.

Generating something of this nature in parts of the Baltics (Narva, Daugavpils, etc.) would, actually, be much easier than in Donetsk. Population there uniformly Russian or Russian-speaking (up to 95% in Narva), big chunk of it Russian citizens (but very long-term resident), with commercial interests overwhelmingly tying them to Russia. And those with local citizenship largely vote for Russian parties - and are, mainly, unhappy that these are too moderate. If Putin decides to generate unrest there tomorrow, the day after tomorrow there will be riots all over.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 02:32:30 PM
Disaster in Odessa...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 02:54:57 PM
This looks like an unmitigated disaster. There is not enough information to know what happened so far, but many are dead. Besides being a disaster in and by itself (and, whatever those people were doing, their death IS a disaster), it gives Russia pretext it needed to invade the South.

It will be really bad.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 04:21:53 PM
Lots of conflicting news on both sides. Here is what seems plausible.

Today there was a pro-Ukrainian march - actually, much of it were the football fans (there was a visiting team from Kharkiv today in town - football fans all over the Ukraine, even in Donetsk, have come out strongly against Russia), though there were also some other pro-Ukrainian activists. The march was attacked, there was shooting (seems to be evidence for pro-Russian snipers in the streets).  At that point pro-Ukrainian reinforcements arrived and the crowd attacked the pro-Russian camp in front of the trade-union building. Some of the people in the camp retreated into the union building and the sides were exchanging shots and Molotov cocktails - apparently, and unfortunately, mostly the latter. Well, unsurprisingly the building caught fire. 31 dead are the result of that fire (they initially said 38), and a few others are from clashes elsewhere in the city - likely over 40 victims. Several hundred wounded, some of them badly.

Whatever happened, but, obviously, this is a big fig-up by the police and the authorities in general. They should have done a better job separating the sides and they should have brought the fire-fighting equipment faster. Well, we know Ukrainian state is inefficient, but, in this case, too much depended on doing the job right - whatever the Russian provocations.

Anyways, I guess, some of the calls here for ordinary Ukrainians to start resisting have found a response. Civilians are starting to fight back - with, unfortunately, predictable results. There will be many dead, I am afraid.

Honestly, would have made a lot more sense to have concentrated some major NATO troops along Russian borders some time ago - none of this would have happened.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 05:34:37 PM
Tomorrow there will be another crisis: in Crimea. Tomorrow the Tartars were supposed to have their annual spring festival. Today, Dzhemilev, who was planning to attend, was not allowed to enter Crimea. Consequently, the Tartars canceled the celebration and tomorrow are planning to go collectively to the border checkpoint instead. There will be tens of thousands of them at the checkpoint, most likely. I do not know what is going to happen.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 02, 2014, 08:13:46 PM
It took 40 min for the fire trucks to arrive, another 20 min for them to enter the building.

Nasty business.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 04, 2014, 12:03:35 AM
Today thousands of Tartars came to the checkpoint to greet Mustafa Dzhemilev. They broke through the Russian checkpoint and met him in the "neutral" zone. Dzhemilev said that, for the moment, they are sticking to non-violence: he did not try to cross with the crowd (there were, probably, enough of them to swamp the checkpoint - but there would have been man victims). The Russian government is threatening participants with prosecution.

I think, this year we have a perfect candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize: if they do not give it to Mustafa Dzhemilev, they will be in the wrong.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 04, 2014, 11:16:26 AM
I think, this year we have a perfect candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize: if they do not give it to Mustafa Dzhemilev, they will be in the wrong.

He's a legitimate option, but my suspicion is it will probably go to something involved in Syria again.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 04, 2014, 12:25:06 PM
Jesus, why aren't there NATO forces in the Ukraine already?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on May 04, 2014, 01:04:02 PM
Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 04, 2014, 06:16:39 PM
Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on May 05, 2014, 08:25:56 AM
Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.
Does not every electoral authority declare itself as such, in a way, though ? I mean if nobody challenges them, are they not de facto an authority ?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on May 05, 2014, 08:28:47 AM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 05, 2014, 08:49:10 AM
Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.
Does not every electoral authority declare itself as such, in a way, though ? I mean if nobody challenges them, are they not de facto an authority ?

1. No, electoral authorities generally are appointed using some ñegal procedure.

2. They are not challenged in this case only by themselves. Nobody outside the semi- unknown world of pro-russian forces in the region (or, possibly, Russia) recognizes them - or, really, knows who they are.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 05, 2014, 09:15:27 AM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 05, 2014, 09:20:00 AM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?

I've barely said anything on Ukraine in a while other than rather bland analysis. I don't really like either side though I won't go in depth again.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 05, 2014, 09:41:41 AM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?

I've barely said anything on Ukraine in a while other than rather bland analysis. I don't really like either side though I won't go in depth again.

Actually, as somebody who generally detests your views, I have to say that in this case you were reasonable.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 05, 2014, 09:51:06 AM
Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on May 05, 2014, 10:36:36 AM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 05, 2014, 11:10:00 AM
Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 05, 2014, 12:52:37 PM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.
I have never reported a post, but I will do right now. Simply because I believe some disgusting posts towards Ukrainians, people who suffer from this folk of alcoholic homophobes, shouldn't be the victimes of the sage-master Putin lover.

Leave him alone. He has, actually, been moderately reasonable here - a lot better than on Venezuela, say. There has not been anything outright offensive that I noticed - and I have been the main "banderovets" here.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: windjammer on May 05, 2014, 01:22:51 PM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.
I have never reported a post, but I will do right now. Simply because I believe some disgusting posts towards Ukrainians, people who suffer from this folk of alcoholic homophobes, shouldn't be the victimes of the sage-master Putin lover.

Leave him alone. He has, actually, been moderately reasonable here - a lot better than on Venezuela, say. There has not been anything outright offensive that I noticed - and I have been the main "banderovets" here.

He will be back, you can be sure. It's a question of time.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 05, 2014, 01:43:48 PM
If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

China has shown zero interest in establishing an exclusive sphere consisting of itself and Central Asian states.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Vosem on May 05, 2014, 02:50:39 PM
Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on May 05, 2014, 03:51:45 PM
Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

I think he has no issue with being a vassal state, but he wants to keep the control of his country.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 05, 2014, 05:07:35 PM
Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

He is pretending he is doing things willingly - he is not doing them. They have not signed a shred of paper till now. Kazakhs, actually, do not mind a Customs Union with Russia - they have no chance for one with EU, anyway. But they want their terms to be considered - and they drive a good bargain. But the Kazakhs are very cognizant of the fact, that many in Russia think of the bulk of Kazakhstan as Southern Siberia, and they are quite proactive in fighting it - one case where being a dictatorship helps.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 05, 2014, 05:08:24 PM
Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

I think he has no issue with being a vassal state, but he wants to keep the control of his country.

Vassal? Oh, he would have an issue with that. But he is not being a vassal.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on May 06, 2014, 06:51:36 AM
Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.
I have never reported a post, but I will do right now. Simply because I believe some disgusting posts towards Ukrainians, people who suffer from this folk of alcoholic homophobes, shouldn't be the victimes of the sage-master Putin lover.
Yes, but calling all Russians alcoholic homophobes because you hate Putin is perfectly alright, good job.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2014, 11:59:35 AM
Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on May 06, 2014, 12:04:34 PM
Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

inb4 ag states that this is the end of the world as we know it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 06, 2014, 12:48:45 PM
Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

inb4 ag states that this is the end of the world as we know it.

This by itself? No. But the end of the world is nigh, this is just another sign. And I am dead serious.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 06, 2014, 12:55:54 PM
european left just wanted to lose election.

"We are witnessing the emergence of a Nazi State fostered by the USA and the EU in Ukraine. Yesterday conflict in Odessa and other east Ukraine cities with nearly 50 victims shows the protagonist behavior of Nazi groups under the guidance of Kiev. The split that Ukraine society is living has been influenced by the willingness of USA and the EU to go against Russia deploying all kind of measures in order to isolate that country in a kind of Cold War revival. It is just the opposite to what should be recommended if peaceful coexistence was the desired aim.
One hundred years after the First World War Europe should not play with fire but on the contrary would favor diplomatic and peaceful solutions to all kind of international crisis. The ELP condemns the attitude of the EU on this conflict and also the brutal behavior of Kiev and urges all parts to solve the differences under the principle of dialogue within the rules of the UN. - See more at: http://www.european-left.org/positions/statement-party-european-left-pel-odessa-conflict#sthash.r1arbCKw.dpuf".

I see Putin has apparently revived the Soviet practice of providing funding for useful stooges in the West.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 06, 2014, 01:23:26 PM
Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe, they're GDP per capita is something abysmal, like around ~$5,200? This contrasts poorly with something around ~$14,000 in Russia and ~$28,000 in a "poorer" country like Portugal. Of course these aren't exact figures but I'm sure you get the point.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on May 06, 2014, 10:03:24 PM
Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505


The fact that Russia owns Kaliningrad is kind of ridiculous really. Everybody knows it's really part of East Prussia, which should never have been given to Poland to begin with.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 07, 2014, 08:16:07 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27314816


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 07, 2014, 08:50:31 PM
Ag, what does it mean?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 07, 2014, 08:50:55 PM
WAR


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on May 08, 2014, 03:35:10 AM
Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America? :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 08, 2014, 07:55:05 AM
Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America? :P

You may think you are joking, but you are, likely, right. Putin's words, historically, have notable inverse correlation with his plans. Note, that ue has done exactly NOTHING to show that his new mood is more than words. Troops are still where they were, the "referendum-organizers" still claim it is on, active fighting still continues. Beleiving Putin's reasonableness is not a smart thing to do


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 08, 2014, 10:34:42 AM
Ukraine government should move cautiously and not try to increase the body count. Hold transport hubs, border crossings and strategic areas, do not try to storm central cities or buildings. Work towards a political solution.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 08, 2014, 10:37:07 AM
I'm going to agree with ag and say that Putin has some sort of ulterior motive, though we'll have to wait and see what his next move is.

FTR I've shifted to tacitly supporting the Kiev government as the lesser of two evils at this point, especially since the neo-Nazis have been to some extent shoved aside.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: YL on May 12, 2014, 12:44:59 PM
No mention of the "referendum" results?  96% for the separatists in Luhansk, only 90% in Donetsk...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 12, 2014, 02:47:05 PM
No mention of the "referendum" results?  96% for the separatists in Luhansk, only 90% in Donetsk...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia

In related news, the separate referendum was held in Moscow on the future of Vladimir Putin. In a stunning result, 99% of the 98.6% of the voters who turned out, voted for his immediate castration. It is of interest, that the Gagarin district precinct, where Mr. Putin himself votes, showed a 100% turnout with 100% voting for castration.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: IceSpear on May 12, 2014, 03:45:13 PM
You would think they'd at least lie about these numbers to make them a little more believable. Nobody's buying these 90%+ margins.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on May 12, 2014, 05:35:20 PM
They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on May 12, 2014, 06:06:42 PM
I'm going to agree with ag and say that Putin has some sort of ulterior motive, though we'll have to wait and see what his next move is.

FTR I've shifted to tacitly supporting the Kiev government as the lesser of two evils at this point, especially since the neo-Nazis have been to some extent shoved aside.

Until I see the press release, I refuse to believe this.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 13, 2014, 08:09:41 AM
It appears Donetsk has just proclaimed their own sanctions, prohibiting Obama, Merkel and Ashton from entering.

Obama is going to be CRUSHED!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 15, 2014, 12:11:14 AM
6 death points for excessive hyperbole.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 15, 2014, 09:51:31 AM
They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.

Right. Like in Crimea the would-be No voters chose not to vote at all because they saw the referendum as illegitimate. The difference is that in Crimea, Yes would have won anyway, but here that surely wouldn't be the case.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 15, 2014, 04:32:09 PM
They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.

Right. Like in Crimea the would-be No voters chose not to vote at all because they saw the referendum as illegitimate. The difference is that in Crimea, Yes would have won anyway, but here that surely wouldn't be the case.

All numbers seem to be bs. It seems that the percentages were written first and the vote numbers added later. And a few other things. Apparently (I did not check, just copying from people whom I trust):

1. The first numbers, which appeared 2.5 hours after the "polls closed", had percentages essentially identical to the final results (even though, because they were only able to open a few polling places, some of these, if the vote numbers are right, should have had well over 30 thousand votes - each).

2. There are no detailed results, of course, just the final protocol with the sums: one for Donetsk and one for Luhansk. At least, the Luhansk one has been posted on the web. In it

a.   the number of ballots issued to polling places and the number of eligible voters coincide (that is, they knew exactly where each voter was going - even though most regular polling places were closed, and others were hastily arranged)

b. the number of ballots issued to voters is exactly 75.2000% of the number in (a) (which would be the case, if they simply multiplied the number in (a) by 75.2% and rounded to the nearest integer - but would be very unlikely if they really counted the number of votes cast and then rounded the percentages

c. the number of ballots found in the ballot boxes is exactly equal to the number of ballots issued to voters (nobody took the ballot home, etc.)

d. the share of invalid ballots (0.74% in both Luhansk and Donetsk) is, actually, exactly 0.7400% of total ballots cast (again, what you would get if you multiply the number in (b) by 0.74% and round to the nearest integer, but highly unlikely if you actually count the ballots.

e. the number of votes in favor of independence is, once again, 96.2000% - same thing, they first decided on the percentages and than multiplied the number in (b) by that, rounding to the nearest integer, and never really counted any votes.

Any more questions?

Details (in Russian) here

http://barouh.livejournal.com/419297.html


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 16, 2014, 03:31:08 PM
On Sunday, may 18th, it will 70 years of the deportation of Crimean Tartars. Every year they organize a bunch of commemorative events during the 17th and the 18th, culminating in a large demonstration on the 18th. Today the de facto Crimean authorities issued a decree prohibiting all public meetings until June 6th. Officially this is done because of the "situation in the SE of Ukraine". Note, that they have just had massive public meetings on May 1 (Labor Day), May 9 (Victory Day) and are resuming such events in time for the Celebration of the Russian Culture in June - situation in SE Ukraine notwithstanding.

Large numbers of police detention cars have, apparently, been brought into Crimea from Russia.

The Majlis is calling on everybody to find a "legal" way out. They are insisting on non-violence. Is anybody EVER going to notice those who are preaching non-violence, or do they have to start exploding on the Moscow metro for somebody to pay attention?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 17, 2014, 11:10:50 PM
Today in Cerkasy region a referendum on attaching the Kuban (part of Russia, which includes, for instance, the now famous Sochi) to Cerkasy (and Ukraine) was conducted. In a number of voting places opened in different parts of Cerkasy, voters could cast their ballots for themselves, their relatives, or their pets. The ballot papers explicitly stated that "incorrectly filled out ballots shall be considered invalid". According to the vote organizers, the turnout by 4 PM has reached 98%. The organizers are expecting that the final tally will show 140% voting for unification of Cerkasy and Kuban.

<seen in Pravda Ukrainy">

 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 18, 2014, 12:33:24 AM
Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America? :P

Sounds like they'll be like Transnistria, Russian puppet states not officially recognized by Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 19, 2014, 02:38:32 PM
This Sunday a referendum on annexation of Rostov-on-Don was conducted in Odessa. Long lines of voters were observed in front of the polling booths. According to organizers, 146% of the participants voted in favor of incorporation of Rostov into Odessa.

http://dumskaya.net/news/odessity-proveli-referendum-o-prisoedinenii-rost-035808/


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on May 20, 2014, 03:45:46 AM
I think ag finally lost it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 20, 2014, 01:42:22 PM

I am just translating the news from Ukrainian sites :) And those "referendums" were actually "real" - as real as those in Donetsk and Luhansk, I mean. That is, they had polling stations, ballots and votes - and even lines of those wishing to vote.  Such is the Ukrainian sense of humor these days :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: NewYorkExpress on May 23, 2014, 10:57:20 AM
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/05/23/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-presidential-election-respect/9480961 (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/05/23/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-presidential-election-respect/9480961)
Putin says he will "respect" the results of the Ukrainian Presidential election

Me; He's going to send his troops in while they are voting. He really doesn't want this particular election to happen.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on May 24, 2014, 04:50:41 PM
Donetsk and Luhansk have merged to form the new country of "New Russia"... which probably is an epic fail of a country considering its generic name.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on May 24, 2014, 05:44:04 PM
Donetsk and Luhansk have merged to form the new country of "New Russia"... which probably is an epic fail of a country considering its generic name.

Novorossiya is the term that the Russian Empire used for the regions that it conquered in what is now eastern and southern Ukraine in the eighteenth century, so the name's not new.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Citizen Hats on May 24, 2014, 08:32:48 PM
Perhaps 'Sudatenrussia' would be more appropriate


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on May 24, 2014, 09:52:03 PM
Perhaps 'Sudatenrussia' would be more appropriate

Or "Predatrussia", given they are traitors. It fits them them. First, predat is "betray" in Russian, second, it sounds like predator, which is exactly the current Russian behaviour.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 26, 2014, 09:09:25 PM
Big nasty battle in Donetsk. Likely hundreds dead. Details are sketchy, but, it seems, both sides agree on the following. In the morning "separatists" tried to take over the Donetsk Airport. The Ukrainian troops there first stepped aside - and called for reinforcements. Those came in: with a vengeance. Seems like a very large force, aircraft, helicopters, artillery (?), etc. etc. Also seems like this time they really meant it: both sides confirm huge losses for their opponents (they are speaking of, at least, a hundred fighters dead).  There are also some casualties among the civilians. There has been shooting near the Donetsk main train station and pictures of civilian dead have been all over the web. Pushilin, the "Donetsk President" has desperately called for Russian help at a press conference - and might have later fled. Girkin, the "Donetsk Commander-in-Chief" has acknowledge a very badly planned operation by his side at the airport - and especially blamed failure to disengage in time. It is not clear to which extent the operation is localized within the city, or to which extent it is a major attempt to take back Donetsk. Also, there was further action in Mariupol, where the local "Donetsk Republic" offices were attacked by the government.

This is very nasty, though, of course, not very unexpected. Just hope, it is not used as pretext to send Russian troops in. Otherwise, it might be evidence that the outgoing Turchinov administration is taking the blame on itself, trying to clean up the issue before Poroshenko is inaugurated, so that he could start from a clean slate (apparently, Turchinov has said that he will only stay the parliamentary speaker through September and will then leave politics for good - so he may be willing to fall on the sword for the Fatherland). Then, again, Poroshenko said today that the "anti-terrorist operation should take hours, not months" - whether this was an order, or was taken for one, is a legitimate question.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 26, 2014, 09:20:17 PM
Just to make my point clear. I am fully on the Ukrainian side here. However, everything I know suggests that Ukrainian army is unsuitable for and incapable of proper peace-making operations in civilian areas. Even if they try to avoid civilian casualties (and, at this point, they may be too enraged to much try - there have been several fairly high profile massacres of Ukrainian patrols/units by the "Donetsk Republic" forces recently), there are bound to be fairly heavy civilian casualties. The use of artillery and aircraft in an urban setting is always dangerous.

So, while I have no doubt that overall the blame here squarely lies with the government of Russia, I can only hope - and that hope is slight, frankly - that Ukrainian action is not the immediate reason for a major humanitarian disaster.   There has been a lot of amateurishness here, but at some point, there also has to be responsibility. A clear analysis will have to be undertaken and at least some of those on the Ukrainian side must be held responsible, no matter how painful (I, of course, have no hope about the Russian side). Anything else would be a bad start for the Poroshenko administration.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 27, 2014, 01:33:24 AM
No one is doubting your loyalties, ag. I believe this insurrection, aided by the "polite people", should be stopped at all costs.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 27, 2014, 01:42:52 AM
No one is doubting your loyalties, ag. I believe this insurrection, aided by the "polite people", should be stopped at all costs.

We are long past polite people here. The so called DPR and LPR folk are anything but polite. Hell, yesterday Girkin, the DPR "Commander in Chief" published his first official execution order (they shot two of their own, apparently, for marauding - the order was issued post factum, apparently). There have been serious casualties on both sides even before yesterday (including a recent case of, apparently, murdering some Ukrainian soldiers they had captured).

Still, while I really want Ukraine to prevail, I also want it not too loose its own moral authority. They should not be like the Russians in Chechnya.  It is tough to retain humanity in war, but it has to be done. Especially because they want to retain and/or restore the loyalty of the civilians in the area.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on May 27, 2014, 02:34:59 AM
ag is talking a lot of sense here.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 27, 2014, 04:00:32 AM
Insurrectionists can be expelled. In the Crimea, at least, it is not really their land, anyway.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 27, 2014, 12:17:42 PM
Insurrectionists can be expelled. In the Crimea, at least, it is not really their land, anyway.

I know. You would have, probably, supported replacing all Southerners with good law-abiding Yankees after the Civil War. There was still enough space in interior Brazil back then.

Do not be an idiot.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 27, 2014, 12:21:20 PM
Seems like things are quieter today. Apparently, it was not a general assault yesterday, just trying to retake the Airport, etc.

Anyway, given the news, perhaps Ukrainians do have every reason to be a lot more active. Massive penetration of Ukrainian border by columns of trucks with fighters, guns, ammunition, etc. Ukrainians did manage to capture a couple (loaded with AKs), but most got through, apparently.

Wonderful country that is Russia. What a right to bear arms: you can load your truck with assault weapons and drive to the border, and nobody will tell you anything. Why wouldn´t anyone drive a truck like this to the Lubyanka square?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Pingvin on May 27, 2014, 02:09:52 PM
Looks like about 30 Chechen mercs were destroyed by the air attack in Donetsk.
Photos (VERY NSFW):
http://cs617617.vk.me/v617617946/d39f/550_0mqgCUA.jpg
http://cs617617.vk.me/v617617373/9b6a/2eShP5tpGuM.jpg
http://cs617617.vk.me/v617617814/f411/BDsW6cKj4HI.jpg
http://cs619328.vk.me/v619328702/7270/ryXL3AMo-Dk.jpg


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 27, 2014, 08:14:41 PM
Insurrectionists can be expelled. In the Crimea, at least, it is not really their land, anyway.

I know. You would have, probably, supported replacing all Southerners with good law-abiding Yankees after the Civil War. There was still enough space in interior Brazil back then.

Do not be an idiot.

It is simply the way things have been done historically, why should it have been any different? I have agreed with you, no need to hyperbolic.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 27, 2014, 08:21:03 PM
Insurrectionists can be expelled. In the Crimea, at least, it is not really their land, anyway.

I know. You would have, probably, supported replacing all Southerners with good law-abiding Yankees after the Civil War. There was still enough space in interior Brazil back then.

Do not be an idiot.

It is simply the way things have been done historically, why should it have been any different? I have agreed with you, no need to hyperbolic.

There IS a major disagreement. I happen to oppose mass deportations as a matter of fundamental principle.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 27, 2014, 08:36:46 PM
I think there are a lot of places where they could resolve problems definitively. This might be one of them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on May 27, 2014, 08:37:48 PM
I think there are a lot of places where they could resolve problems definitively. This might be one of them.

So you advocate ethnic cleansing?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 27, 2014, 08:50:35 PM
I think there are a lot of places where they could resolve problems definitively. This might be one of them.

So you advocate ethnic cleansing?

There's no need for buzzwords, particularly when we're talking about a reactive solution rather than something unprovoked.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 27, 2014, 09:58:46 PM
I think there are a lot of places where they could resolve problems definitively. This might be one of them.

So you advocate ethnic cleansing?

There's no need for buzzwords, particularly when we're talking about a reactive solution rather than something unprovoked.

The justification Stalin used for deporting Crimean Tartars (and many others) was exactly this: they, ostensibly, actively collaborated with the enemy. Actually, in a few cases, it was not even wholly wrong: say, Chechens would revolt whenever Russia was weak - and it was not strong ca. 1942.

There are things one does NOT do. Ethnic cleansing is one of those things.

And, in any case, in Donetsk you cannot even do the ethnic cleansing properly. The difference between the local Russians and local Ukrainians is tiny. Frequently, loyalties split families. Many of those, who are in revolt - and even more of those who quietly support it - are doing this because they are scared by Russian propaganda (which, frankly, has long achieved the level of "Goebbelsian" - but is no less effective for that).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 27, 2014, 10:20:41 PM
Perhaps in the Donbass it could be limited to active collaborators, but those in the Crimea who have declared themselves to be Russian should have their wishes respected and be treated accordingly if an when Ukraine establishes authority over the region. If you want to call that "ethnic cleansing", be my guest.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 27, 2014, 10:25:44 PM
Perhaps in the Donbass it could be limited to active collaborators, but those in the Crimea who have declared themselves to be Russian should have their wishes respected and be treated accordingly if an when Ukraine establishes authority over the region. If you want to call that "ethnic cleansing", be my guest.

Well, you just gave the Russians the chance to deport the Tartars: you know, they have their wishes quite public as well. Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII. Besides, how are you going to distinguish those who voted for Russia from those who did not?

Fortunately, Ukrainian government is very explicit in distinguishing between active traitors: those who actively participated in the annexation - and the rest, whom it considers its citizens and whom it is trying to take care of. This is both much more morally sound - and more productive in the long term.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on May 27, 2014, 10:32:52 PM
Perhaps in the Donbass it could be limited to active collaborators, but those in the Crimea who have declared themselves to be Russian should have their wishes respected and be treated accordingly if an when Ukraine establishes authority over the region. If you want to call that "ethnic cleansing", be my guest.

Well, you just gave the Russians the chance to deport the Tartars: you know, they have their wishes quite public as well. Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII. Besides, how are you going to distinguish those who voted for Russia from those who did not?

Fortunately, Ukrainian government is very explicit in distinguishing between active traitors: those who actively participated in the annexation - and the rest, whom it considers its citizens and whom it is trying to take care of. This is both much more morally sound - and more productive in the long term.

That is essentially what I have said.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on May 28, 2014, 08:56:42 AM
Perhaps in the Donbass it could be limited to active collaborators, but those in the Crimea who have declared themselves to be Russian should have their wishes respected and be treated accordingly if an when Ukraine establishes authority over the region. If you want to call that "ethnic cleansing", be my guest.

Well, you just gave the Russians the chance to deport the Tartars: you know, they have their wishes quite public as well. Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII. Besides, how are you going to distinguish those who voted for Russia from those who did not?

Fortunately, Ukrainian government is very explicit in distinguishing between active traitors: those who actively participated in the annexation - and the rest, whom it considers its citizens and whom it is trying to take care of. This is both much more morally sound - and more productive in the long term.

That is essentially what I have said.

No, you talked about the group that has declared themselves to be Russian = anyone who voted for union with Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zuza on May 28, 2014, 05:42:44 PM
And, in any case, in Donetsk you cannot even do the ethnic cleansing properly. The difference between the local Russians and local Ukrainians is tiny.
It is also important that there are very many pro-Russian ethnic Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainian ethnic Russians. Ethnicity correlates with political affiliation, but not determines it. In Crimea in 2008 55% of Ukrainians stated they would support joining Russia and 30% opposed joining (in comparison, 76% of Russians supported and 14% opposed - difference is significant, but not huge; and I don't think that numbers have changed much since then). Many people (probably most of them) have mixed ancestry, and in many cases difference between Russians and Ukrainians exists in name only. All this makes ethnic cleansing practically meaningless.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zuza on May 28, 2014, 05:45:23 PM
Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII.
Moreover, they became largest ethnic group before Stalin's deportations, by 1900 numbers of Russians and Crimean Tatars were equal.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 28, 2014, 06:58:34 PM
Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII.
Moreover, they became largest ethnic group before Stalin's deportations, by 1900 numbers of Russians and Crimean Tatars were equal.

Not quite, though fairly close. In total, the 1897 census recorded 167,813 (Greater) Russians and 194,294 Tartars out of the total of roughly 550 thousand people in the parts of the Tavrida government that are in Crimea. However, at the time Russians were concentrated in a few places, especially in traditional military cities at the edge of the peninsula. At the 1897 census (Greater) Russians were huge majorities only in Sevastopol (63%) and Kerch (56%) city districts - in both cities Tartars were virtually absent (6% in Kerch and 3% in Sevastopol). Tartars were either in majority (Yalta) or formed a plurality in most other places.  Of the total number of (Greater) Russians, over 60 thousand were resident in those two towns alone (only 6,000 around Tartars lived there). Thus, once you get out of Kerch and Sevastopol, Tartars were outnumbering Russians nearly 2 to 1 (though, as I am taking the number from the linguistic table of the census, some of those could have been Jews, etc. - though, of course, there were also some Russian-speaking non-Russians).

Tartars still (slightly) outnumbered Russians by 1926: 140 thousand to 121 thousand out of the total of around 380 thousand (I guess, the Civil War did not treat the local population kindly :( ). There were also nearly 50 thousand Ukrainians, as well as 40 thousand Germans, 10 thousand Bulgarians and 6.5 thousand Greeks, all of whom would also be later expelled by Stalin (I am not sure about the Greeks), and 4 thousand Jews, who would be killed by Hitler.

The situation did, likely, change by the late 1930s, of course. Unfortunately, we do not have another proper census in the Soviet Union till 1959, as the 1939 census is well known to be seriously falsified. In fact, there had been a real census in 1937, but those results were scrapped, as they did not conform to what Stalin wanted to hear: given the sad fate of those who organized the 1937 census, their successors had the incentives not to produce surprises. While I do not think that falsifying the ethnic composition of Crimea was an objective at the time (the main "fault" of the 1937 demographers had been to give "too low" population numbers, which, likely, reflected the real disasters that happened in between), but I am simply not sure it would be appropriate to use the 1939 result as a proper historical source.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on May 29, 2014, 10:24:50 AM
According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zuza on June 04, 2014, 06:14:46 PM

Tartars still (slightly) outnumbered Russians by 1926: 140 thousand to 121 thousand out of the total of around 380 thousand (I guess, the Civil War did not treat the local population kindly :( ). There were also nearly 50 thousand Ukrainians, as well as 40 thousand Germans, 10 thousand Bulgarians and 6.5 thousand Greeks, all of whom would also be later expelled by Stalin (I am not sure about the Greeks), and 4 thousand Jews, who would be killed by Hitler.
It is a data for rural area. In total population (incl. Sevastopol and other cities) Russians significantly outnumbered Tatars (301 thousand vs. 179 thousands; source in Russian: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/ssp/rus_nac_26.php?reg=788).

The situation did, likely, change by the late 1930s, of course. Unfortunately, we do not have another proper census in the Soviet Union till 1959, as the 1939 census is well known to be seriously falsified. In fact, there had been a real census in 1937, but those results were scrapped, as they did not conform to what Stalin wanted to hear: given the sad fate of those who organized the 1937 census, their successors had the incentives not to produce surprises. While I do not think that falsifying the ethnic composition of Crimea was an objective at the time (the main "fault" of the 1937 demographers had been to give "too low" population numbers, which, likely, reflected the real disasters that happened in between), but I am simply not sure it would be appropriate to use the 1939 result as a proper historical source.
Yes, I agree that 1939 data is not reliable (looking at change in ethnic composition between 1897 and 1926, influx of Russian and Ukrainian migrants was high, and it is possible that in Crimea numbers are real or close to real: 558 thousands Russians and 219 thousands Tatars; but nothing can be said for sure).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 05, 2014, 06:11:54 AM
According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 05, 2014, 11:59:36 AM
According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?

Considering that the Crimean "polite people" were, as Putin himself acknowledged eventually, Russian soldiers, this is a funny question. Actually, it seems quite a few were volunteers. Though not quite clear, how many of those volunteers were voluntary, and how many were ordered to volunteer.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on June 07, 2014, 03:59:48 PM
According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?

Considering that the Crimean "polite people" were, as Putin himself acknowledged eventually, Russian soldiers, this is a funny question. Actually, it seems quite a few were volunteers. Though not quite clear, how many of those volunteers were voluntary, and how many were ordered to volunteer.
I find it interesting that even you are hesitant to outright claim that there are Russian soldiers in the Donbas. And it's nice that you've stopped with the bizarre claims about Russia wanting to invade half of Europe or something.
Regarding the supposed humanity of the Ukrainian military (of course considering that most of those killed around the airport were retreating, belief in such humanity requires some rather selective interpretation of the facts), what exactly is the justification for the recent usage of cluster ammunition against civilians in Luhansk? Or for that matter the frequent usage of artillery against settlements by the Ukrainian army? Or about the serious accusations against the so-called National Guard regarding war crimes?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 07, 2014, 07:23:01 PM
According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?

Considering that the Crimean "polite people" were, as Putin himself acknowledged eventually, Russian soldiers, this is a funny question. Actually, it seems quite a few were volunteers. Though not quite clear, how many of those volunteers were voluntary, and how many were ordered to volunteer.
I find it interesting that even you are hesitant to outright claim that there are Russian soldiers in the Donbas. And it's nice that you've stopped with the bizarre claims about Russia wanting to invade half of Europe or something.
Regarding the supposed humanity of the Ukrainian military (of course considering that most of those killed around the airport were retreating, belief in such humanity requires some rather selective interpretation of the facts), what exactly is the justification for the recent usage of cluster ammunition against civilians in Luhansk? Or for that matter the frequent usage of artillery against settlements by the Ukrainian army? Or about the serious accusations against the so-called National Guard regarding war crimes?

1. Well, in quite a few cases we have of dead men identified, they had resigned from some Russian force days before coming to Ukraine to die.  Whatever that means. They are sending dead bodies to Russia by a truckload, BTW. Main Ukrainian export to the East these days. I do not know, why Russians want them.

2. I never said it will happen this year. I continue saying that, unless Ukraine stands up and supported, it will happen quite soon.

3. You seem to be watching quite a bit of Russian-produced news ("retreating", "cluster bombs", etc.). So much lying must be horrible for your digestive system. You will get an ulcer soon, unless yo stop.

4. The Luhansk bombing was, it seems, a -up. I am not an expert, though, so I will wait for more info. Still, it is by no means a humanitarian disaster - the Russian headquarters took the brunt: during a major battle in which they were attacking (eventually, successfully) a military camp (it surrendered 24 hours later).  Still, doing that in the city center, I will be the first to acknowledge, was irresponsible. And, in the end, useless - they did lose the battle. Of course, if they did not care about the civilians they could have easily won: so far the Russians do not dare to put in the air force, so Ukrainian force could have been devastating. But in the city this would mean civilian casualties.

5. It is well-documented that not only the Russians put their artillery within populated districts, but that they frequently use it to shoot other populated districts as well. You seem to ignore that little-significant fact. Ukrainians have to liberate their citizens who are in mortal danger from the invasion.

6. To sum up, the answer to "why are the Ukrainians doing" this or that is very simple: they are trying to protect YOUR country and YOUR family. Because YOU are next.  Though, perhaps, you would simply like that, wouldn't you?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 07, 2014, 07:40:02 PM
I somewhat doubt that Putin has any territorial desires against Bulgaria.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 07, 2014, 07:50:07 PM
I somewhat doubt that Putin has any territorial desires against Bulgaria.

You know the old Russian saying? "Chicken is not a bird, Bulgaria is not abroad" (курица не птица, Болгария не заграница). And, of course, аппетит приходит во время еды (appetite comes while you eat).

Shows the culinary associations our cannibal nation has on this point :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on June 08, 2014, 05:19:10 AM
1. Well, in quite a few cases we have of dead men identified, they had resigned from some Russian force days before coming to Ukraine to die.  Whatever that means. They are sending dead bodies to Russia by a truckload, BTW. Main Ukrainian export to the East these days. I do not know, why Russians want them.
Source for the truckloads?

Quote
2. I never said it will happen this year. I continue saying that, unless Ukraine stands up and supported, it will happen quite soon.
Considering that Russia has now very good reasons to intervene against Ukraine, but is still doing basically nothing, your assertions do not seem to be based on anything but paranoia. Or perhaps a desire to get attention, but I prefer not to speculate. Though I wonder what your explanation is for why this ultra-aggressive Russia decided to start the wars of expansion against a country that actually gave it a pretty good excuse to do and in one of the few places where a Russian intervention would be welcomed.

Quote
3. You seem to be watching quite a bit of Russian-produced news ("retreating", "cluster bombs", etc.). So much lying must be horrible for your digestive system. You will get an ulcer soon, unless yo stop.
I've seen the cluster bombing reported quite a bit in foreign media. For example here in Bulgaria it was reported by Darik Radio which is about as right-wing and anti-Russian as you can get here.

Quote
4. The Luhansk bombing was, it seems, a -up. I am not an expert, though, so I will wait for more info. Still, it is by no means a humanitarian disaster - the Russian headquarters took the brunt: during a major battle in which they were attacking (eventually, successfully) a military camp (it surrendered 24 hours later).  Still, doing that in the city center, I will be the first to acknowledge, was irresponsible. And, in the end, useless - they did lose the battle. Of course, if they did not care about the civilians they could have easily won: so far the Russians do not dare to put in the air force, so Ukrainian force could have been devastating. But in the city this would mean civilian casualties.
That's possible. It's also possible that they think that this would be going too and Russia's patience will finally run out. Or that they will lose planes - and considering the state of the Ukrainian army, that's not a minor worry. And when you look at the record of the Ukrainian army and the thugs pretending to be a National guard regarding civilian casualties, I don't think your arguments look especially convincing.

Quote
5. It is well-documented that not only the Russians put their artillery within populated districts, but that they frequently use it to shoot other populated districts as well. You seem to ignore that little-significant fact. Ukrainians have to liberate their citizens who are in mortal danger from the invasion.
I don't exactly see how what Russia does excuse what Ukraine is doing (and it should be added that Russia was fighting actual terrorists). And the citizens in those regions were not in mortal danger until the Ukrainians began to "liberate" them (not to mention that they might not want to be liberated). It seems you are ignoring the Crimea, which despite being woefully deprived of a "liberation" campaign, suffered only three casualties. But I'm sure they're now envious there that the Donbas is about to be liberated ::)

Quote
6. To sum up, the answer to "why are the Ukrainians doing" this or that is very simple: they are trying to protect YOUR country and YOUR family. Because YOU are next.  Though, perhaps, you would simply like that, wouldn't you?
The brave Ukrainians, protectors of the free world! ::) Thanks, I needed a laugh. I should probably ask why you think that Russia would invade Bulgaria, but I see your non-response to Snowstalker, so it's pointless to try again, as you obviously don't have any rational arguments to support this idea. And the saying was about Poland, not Bulgaria.

Regarding your ridiculous insinuation that I would want my country to be invaded, I probably should feel insulted but then I realized that you probably would like it very much if Russia was to be controlled by other countries, so it's not surprising that you're projecting your views on other people.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on June 08, 2014, 06:12:30 AM
Some evidence regarding the cluster bomb claims (in Russian):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOQ6JckIYHc


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 09, 2014, 08:44:24 PM
1. Well, in quite a few cases we have of dead men identified, they had resigned from some Russian force days before coming to Ukraine to die.  Whatever that means. They are sending dead bodies to Russia by a truckload, BTW. Main Ukrainian export to the East these days. I do not know, why Russians want them.
Source for the truckloads?


Enjoy. http://echo.msk.ru/blog/maryautomne/1332306-echo/

There is more, if you are interested, but some of that is pretty graphic. Yandex груз 200, it will work.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 09, 2014, 08:48:42 PM

Quote
2. I never said it will happen this year. I continue saying that, unless Ukraine stands up and supported, it will happen quite soon.
Considering that Russia has now very good reasons to intervene against Ukraine, but is still doing basically nothing, your assertions do not seem to be based on anything but paranoia. Or perhaps a desire to get attention, but I prefer not to speculate. Though I wonder what your explanation is for why this ultra-aggressive Russia decided to start the wars of expansion against a country that actually gave it a pretty good excuse to do and in one of the few places where a Russian intervention would be welcomed.

Very good reasons - that Russia itself has manufactured with great care. Had the Ukrainians done nothing, of course, if they behaved as they in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk would have long been incorporated into Russia and the same "polite men" would have been in Cherson and Odessa by now.




Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 09, 2014, 08:50:17 PM

I've seen the cluster bombing reported quite a bit in foreign media. For example here in Bulgaria it was reported by Darik Radio which is about as right-wing and anti-Russian as you can get here.

You have missed the news. Most European fascists have switched to adoring Russia: the last Great White Hope of Europe.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 09, 2014, 08:53:33 PM

Quote
4. The Luhansk bombing was, it seems, a -up. I am not an expert, though, so I will wait for more info. Still, it is by no means a humanitarian disaster - the Russian headquarters took the brunt: during a major battle in which they were attacking (eventually, successfully) a military camp (it surrendered 24 hours later).  Still, doing that in the city center, I will be the first to acknowledge, was irresponsible. And, in the end, useless - they did lose the battle. Of course, if they did not care about the civilians they could have easily won: so far the Russians do not dare to put in the air force, so Ukrainian force could have been devastating. But in the city this would mean civilian casualties.
That's possible. It's also possible that they think that this would be going too and Russia's patience will finally run out. Or that they will lose planes - and considering the state of the Ukrainian army, that's not a minor worry. And when you look at the record of the Ukrainian army and the thugs pretending to be a National guard regarding civilian casualties, I don't think your arguments look especially convincing.

I did not get any of this, except something about "Russian patience". I think, it might be worth putting into a signature. Patience of a wolf with respect to the sheep that has the gall to try kicking. How dare it - it might hurt the babies.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 09, 2014, 08:57:42 PM

Quote
5. It is well-documented that not only the Russians put their artillery within populated districts, but that they frequently use it to shoot other populated districts as well. You seem to ignore that little-significant fact. Ukrainians have to liberate their citizens who are in mortal danger from the invasion.
I don't exactly see how what Russia does excuse what Ukraine is doing (and it should be added that Russia was fighting actual terrorists). And the citizens in those regions were not in mortal danger until the Ukrainians began to "liberate" them (not to mention that they might not want to be liberated). It seems you are ignoring the Crimea, which despite being woefully deprived of a "liberation" campaign, suffered only three casualties. But I'm sure they're now envious there that the Donbas is about to be liberated ::)

I wonder, what would you consider adequate action, if Varna were occupied by the Russians who were going around killing people and staging extra-judicial executions.

Yes, Ukraine gave up Crimea without fight, because it hoped to avoid casualties. Its reward: Donetsk and Luhansk. If it did not resist there, it would have been Cherson and Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Charkiv, Sumy and Kyiv - and all the way to Lviv. So, they are resisting - how dare they.

Ukraine's basic excuse at this point is that it has given up its nukes back in the 1990s in exchange for "guarantees of territorial integrity". If it hadn't, it could have simply nuked Moscow - which would have been a proper response. But it cannot.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 09, 2014, 09:05:20 PM

The brave Ukrainians, protectors of the free world! ::) Thanks, I needed a laugh. I should probably ask why you think that Russia would invade Bulgaria, but I see your non-response to Snowstalker, so it's pointless to try again, as you obviously don't have any rational arguments to support this idea. And the saying was about Poland, not Bulgaria.


Good, somebody still can laugh. I cannot anymore, I cry. We do not know, who is going to be next: but we know, that it only can be stopped by resistance. Unless the Russians feel the pain, they will go on. You are lucky to not have the common border: but that might be only a matter of time.

BTW, I hear your government has had the temerity to suspend the Southern Flow, hasn´t it? How dared it?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on June 09, 2014, 09:06:11 PM
It was sad to see the European leaders embrace Putin on the seventh as if nothing was wrong.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 09, 2014, 09:13:52 PM

Regarding your ridiculous insinuation that I would want my country to be invaded, I probably should feel insulted but then I realized that you probably would like it very much if Russia was to be controlled by other countries, so it's not surprising that you're projecting your views on other people.

You really do not want Bulgaria to be returned into the fold? Then switch back on your eyes, your ears and your brain, and get to terms with what is going on. The largest European country has had a proper fascist regime installed, the regime bent on acquiring back what it considers lost. It is a clear and present danger to all around it. Not so much to myself - I live in one of the safest places there is out there in case the worst happens. But you do not have that luxury.

Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCsRaD-2uW0


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 11, 2014, 11:55:45 PM
One thing in which the Ukrainian government has been clearly delinquent is the refugee policy. It has been left to regions, really - very little is obviously done at the national level. And there has been a lot more done, it seems, about the Crimeans than about the Donetsk/Luhansk people (there the main preoccupation too frequently is that these may be infiltrators).

It goes beyond providing buses to take those who want to move (some public transportation still works in most places in any cas). At a minimum, what should have been done is creating an office in each regional capital responsible for temporary resettlement. A lot of the people in the affected regions are either retirees or state employees. They are left destitute in the worst-affected parts, which by itself prevents evacuation (for instance, in Slavyansk banks are closed and salaries/pensions are not being paid). The retirees should have been assisted in opening accounts in banks in locations of their choice.  State employees should have bee offered temporary transfers - even if, for the moment, there is no real job for them elsewhere. School year is over, fortunately, but schoolchildren also should be guaranteed places in schools. All evacuees should be paid some start-up money. Private companies should be offered tax incentives to hire them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on June 12, 2014, 09:15:08 AM
Enjoy. http://echo.msk.ru/blog/maryautomne/1332306-echo/

There is more, if you are interested, but some of that is pretty graphic. Yandex груз 200, it will work.
Thank you for the source, though it doesn't in any way prove that current members of the Russian military are participating on the side of the insurgents.

Very good reasons - that Russia itself has manufactured with great care. Had the Ukrainians done nothing, of course, if they behaved as they in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk would have long been incorporated into Russia and the same "polite men" would have been in Cherson and Odessa by now.
Russia has not manufactured the multiple war crimes committed by the Ukrainian army or the national guard or the various other attacks upon pro-Russian Ukrainians. I don't know exactly what would have happened had the Ukrainians done nothing but at least it's certain that there would be far fewer civilian casualties and perhaps a peaceful solution would be possible.

You have missed the news. Most European fascists have switched to adoring Russia: the last Great White Hope of Europe.
I see that I was unclear. Darik radio is actually closely associated (or at least was) with UDF, the former main right-wing (and rabidly Russophobic) party.

I did not get any of this, except something about "Russian patience". I think, it might be worth putting into a signature. Patience of a wolf with respect to the sheep that has the gall to try kicking. How dare it - it might hurt the babies.
Under patience I meant not reacting to the behavior of the Ukrainian army over the last two months. Patience that might end if Ukrainian air-force starts openly bombing cities.
The comparison with the wolf and sheep is ridiculous, since the Ukrainians haven't actually attacked Russia in any way. The main brunt of their "liberation" war have been their own citizens.

I wonder, what would you consider adequate action, if Varna were occupied by the Russians who were going around killing people and staging extra-judicial executions.

Yes, Ukraine gave up Crimea without fight, because it hoped to avoid casualties. Its reward: Donetsk and Luhansk. If it did not resist there, it would have been Cherson and Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Charkiv, Sumy and Kyiv - and all the way to Lviv. So, they are resisting - how dare they.

Ukraine's basic excuse at this point is that it has given up its nukes back in the 1990s in exchange for "guarantees of territorial integrity". If it hadn't, it could have simply nuked Moscow - which would have been a proper response. But it cannot.
Inadvertently you're repeating a talking point made by our foolish president, making it even less persuasive ;) And while he at least had the excuse of political necessity of not naming a minority that was actually significant and likely to have problems with the majority, you don't
really do, so your argument is yet another wild fantasy without any relevance to the situation. Perhaps we can discuss next whether the Russians will be occupying Brighton Beach? ;)

I suggest that it was far more likely for Ukraine's abandonment of Crimea was the prospect of an unwinable fight with the actual Russian forces and the unreliability of their forces there (proven correct when most of them deserted the Ukrainian army). And the uprisings in Donetsk and Luhansk didn't come out of a vacuum but after a month of actions seemingly deliberately chosen to antagonize the local population.

And if you think that nuking Moscow was the proper response to Russia occupying an area where most inhabitants don't want to be part of Ukraine, then you have truly lost any rationality over this issue.

Good, somebody still can laugh. I cannot anymore, I cry. We do not know, who is going to be next: but we know, that it only can be stopped by resistance. Unless the Russians feel the pain, they will go on. You are lucky to not have the common border: but that might be only a matter of time.

BTW, I hear your government has had the temerity to suspend the Southern Flow, hasn´t it? How dared it?
What do you mean under pain? I hope it's not a nuclear attack, but after the last post I'm not too sure...

And your knowledge of Bulgaria's politics is sadly out of date, 25 years out of date to be precise. Nowadays the daring was in the government attempting to continue with South Stream after the Crimean crisis. But of course US ambassador eventually spoke against it and to hammer in the point, McCain and two other senators spoke with the prime minister in person on this issue. Of course, just in case he proved recalcitrant, the government suddenly collapsed just the day before...

You really do not want Bulgaria to be returned into the fold? Then switch back on your eyes, your ears and your brain, and get to terms with what is going on. The largest European country has had a proper fascist regime installed, the regime bent on acquiring back what it considers lost. It is a clear and present danger to all around it. Not so much to myself - I live in one of the safest places there is out there in case the worst happens. But you do not have that luxury.

Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCsRaD-2uW0
My brain is switched on. Otherwise I might have overlooked how your source for the truckloads of bodies was one of the most popular radio stations of a supposedly fascist country. Or perhaps this is your special definition of fascist which seems to include any regime you particularly dislike.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 12, 2014, 02:19:29 PM
Enjoy. http://echo.msk.ru/blog/maryautomne/1332306-echo/

There is more, if you are interested, but some of that is pretty graphic. Yandex груз 200, it will work.


I just was about to repeat that I did acknowledge that these guys tended to have RESIGNED from the Russian security services - sometimes days or weeks before finding themselves in Ukraine, so "technically" you were right. However, as of today, it seems, you are wrong even on technicality (not that being "technically" correct ever mattered).

http://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/446841/

Apparently, Russian anti-aircraft units have been protecting these tanks since the morning. This, by the way, is pretty deep inside Ukraine.

The war, of course, has been started and perpetuated BY the RUSSIANS. Nobody is even pretending otherwise - except in what goes for the consumption of some useful idiots in Europe. "Мы готовы умереть на развалинах Славянка, но с твердой верой, что наши убитые и раненые под безответным гаубичным огнем — не напрасные жертвы! И что мы не зря принесли с собой войну в этот прекрасный город и жертвы его населения тоже не напрасны!" This is not Ukrainian propaganda - this is His Excellency Comrade Strelkov, the Commander-in-Chief of the army of the Donetsk Republic in person (the gentleman, by the way, is a native of Moscow - he was a year senior to my wife in college - who had never lived anywhere near Donetsk). The victims are the victims of the Russians, whom you insist on defending. The war crimes are committed by the Russians - but, of course, as long as the war crimes are committed by true fascists you will always support them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on June 12, 2014, 04:04:34 PM
I just was about to repeat that I did acknowledge that these guys tended to have RESIGNED from the Russian security services - sometimes days or weeks before finding themselves in Ukraine, so "technically" you were right. However, as of today, it seems, you are wrong even on technicality (not that being "technically" correct ever mattered).

http://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/446841/

Apparently, Russian anti-aircraft units have been protecting these tanks since the morning. This, by the way, is pretty deep inside Ukraine.
Any evidence that these tanks have been moved there from Russia and not captured from the Ukrainians, who apparently have a tank arsenal near Makeevka? They're also not Tanks currently used by the Russian army.

Quote
The war, of course, has been started and perpetuated BY the RUSSIANS. Nobody is even pretending otherwise - except in what goes for the consumption of some useful idiots in Europe. "Мы готовы умереть на развалинах Славянка, но с твердой верой, что наши убитые и раненые под безответным гаубичным огнем — не напрасные жертвы! И что мы не зря принесли с собой войну в этот прекрасный город и жертвы его населения тоже не напрасны!" This is not Ukrainian propaganda - this is His Excellency Comrade Strelkov, the Commander-in-Chief of the army of the Donetsk Republic in person (the gentleman, by the way, is a native of Moscow - he was a year senior to my wife in college - who had never lived anywhere near Donetsk). The victims are the victims of the Russians, whom you insist on defending. The war crimes are committed by the Russians - but, of course, as long as the war crimes are committed by true fascists you will always support them.
The war was started by the Ukrainian army, unless you want to describe the capture of public buildings as war (which would make the overthrow of Yanukovych war as well, of course). And of course the Ukrainian side would never make such a statement, as they would hardly want it their mass usage of artillery against towns (which for example led to the destruction of much of Slavyansk) more widely known.

Regarding war crimes, are you going to deny that the Ukrainian side has committed them or that the Russians were somehow responsible? The first is bordering on the absurd on this point (see bombing by both artillery and planes of densely settled areas or the shooting at unarmed civilians) while the second seems close to outright to denial of reality (you don't even have the excuse of being misinformed, obviously).

As for fascism, you still haven't explained what you mean under fascism, so I'm going to assume it's your special brand of fascism, undetectable by anyone but yourself, but apparently so vile that it justifies any atrocities against the "fascists"


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 12, 2014, 08:05:12 PM
Strongly nationalist repressive undemocratic regime, combining elements of personality cult of the National Leader, state capitalism (with private business and property rights operating at the pleasure of the Leader), servile judiciary, completely emasculated popular representation at all levels,   demonization of foreigners and selected minorities, marginalization of all opposition as "foreign agents", widespread use of criminal prosecution for political means, government control over most media (heavily used for internal propaganda purposes), strong expansionist demands towards neighbors, increasing militarization, expanded role of security services, use of extra-legal militarized formations by the government ... Should I continue? Any one of those or even a few together, perhaps, would not justify the "fascist" lable. But current Russian regime combines them all - and more. It is rapidly becoming a most classic fascist dictatorship - not recognizing it means either ignorance or intellectual dishonesty.

Anyway, the undisputed European fascists are in no doubt what they are facing. They all adore Mr. Putin - he is the one of them who got to live the dream.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Meursault on June 12, 2014, 08:14:59 PM
Putinism is not fascist. It's lame national-conservatism.
- The fascist


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on June 12, 2014, 08:28:18 PM
As war I am describing moving in a large number foreign agents into the country. There is not even a pretense that these were locals - all the top military commanders are Russians, with basically no history anywhere in Ukraine. For one of the first press-conferences they pushed out the one Ukrainian they had - and even that one has spent the last 20 years in Crimea (at one of the press-conferences he started crying that his family and childhood friends from his native village in Ukraine proper have been calling him, cursing him as a traitor: he said he would never forgive this to Ukrainian media).  They literally had nobody else with even a plausible Southern Russian - forget, Ukrainian - accent. I mean, they barely have any military commander of importance who pronounces the "gamma" as a "h" - this is not even Ukrainian, all the adjacent Russian provinces share this (remember one Mikhail Horbachev?).  It is true, the self-declared "political leaders" of the DNR and LNR are locals -  the most important of them previously known, mainly, for participating in pyramid schemes or for impersonating Santa Claus, almost none of them who had previously been involved in any sort of politics at all (unless you count getting a 100 votes while miserably losing in a city council election or other exploits of the same nature). Nor are they in control of anything in their "Republics" - they are puppets, whom the Russians arrest for any disagreement (the mother of the "people's mayor" of Slavyansk has been on TV crying that they have taken her son somewhere and she does not know where he is).  Strelkov has made speech after speech lambasting the locals for refusing to join in the Struggle: "we came in to fight for you, and you do not want to move a finger". Yes, a popular struggle it is.

These (well-armed) foreign agents occupy not merely public buildings, but military and police installations, distribute guns to local criminals (starting a waive of marauder attackes), arrest or otherwise disappear hundreds of local residents (some of whom are later found dead), declare extra-judicial executions (based on a Soviet decree from June 22, 1941 - I am not joking, this is the preamble to an execution list produced by Strelkov), confiscate private property (such as cars, houses, etc.) for "revolutionary needs", take over a chunk of the border, thorough which they increasingly receive military equipment....

Yes, it is not a war. It is a picnic by a group of polite Russian tourists, who are simply "reconstructing" some scenes from WWI. How could Ukrainians be so mistaken?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on June 14, 2014, 05:37:27 PM
Ukrainian plane shot down killing 49:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/14/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on June 15, 2014, 01:24:55 PM
Ukrainian plane shot down killing 49:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/14/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/

Surely it's Ukrainians who did that to frame the Russians! It's impossible than the Russians liberators did it!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on June 17, 2014, 05:37:44 PM
Really? That's the same regime that has allowed Chechnya to become a de-facto Islamic state, that allows local ethnic majorities to dominate over Russians (and even in some cases when they're not majorities) and that, if not encouraging it, takes a very tolerant view of immigration, both legal and illegal from Central Asia. Of course you might have your own definition of nationalism, like you do of antisemitism...

Quote
repressive undemocratic regime, combining elements of personality cult of the National Leader,
Russia does not even come close in level of repression to many of the regimes in the region, so I don't quite see how that is evidence of fascism. The same is true of democracy (even if you claim that the elections are entirely rigged, which I doubt even you would do). Also, not many fascist regimes would allow the opposition to take over their third largest city (or have a non-imprisoned opposition in the first place).

Quote
state capitalism (with private business and property rights operating at the pleasure of the Leader),
Most of the economy is in private hands, mostly obtained by very dubious means and except in a few who were too egregious in conspiring with foreign powers and trying to usurp power, preserved them under Putin. This looks more like robber, rather than state capitalism. And Putin's sway over the economy is actually pretty weak. For example, the Duma refused a few years to pass that would end foreign control over credit card operations, with predictable effects once banks started to be sanctioned.

Quote
servile judiciary,
This is hardly something Putin introduced? And is a judiciary essentially controlled by oligarchs (as in the 90s) any better?

Quote
completely emasculated popular representation at all levels,
The argument would be stronger if elections for regional governors hadn't been reintroduced recently.

Quote
demonization of foreigners and selected minorities,
And these minorities are? It's certainly not any of the significant ones. You might have a point about foreigners but then again Russia has been demonized over a long time in foreign media, so a reaction is inevitable at this point.

Quote
marginalization of all opposition as "foreign agents",
If a politician is financed by a foreign power (either directly or under the fiction of a "N"GO), why would that label be incorrect?

Quote
widespread use of criminal prosecution for political means,
Not really widespread against most political opposition. Then again that is hardly needed...

Quote
government control over most media (heavily used for internal propaganda purposes)
Nice cop-out. But it would be absurd to argue that Mussolini or any other fascist would tolerate one of the most popular radio stations to be openly opposed to him, especially in the way that the Moscow Echo is.

Quote
strong expansionist demands towards neighbors,
Preventing Georgia from retaking a region over which it has little claim other than being part of the Georgian SSR (which was never intended to be an independent state) and while attacking Russian citizens and peace-keepers or taking over a majority Russian peninsula that obviously supports joining Russia and to avoid a clear threat against them is not expansionism, but rather back to the wall defending of what few allies Russia has left.

Quote
increasing militarization,
Also known as recovering from the disaster that was the Yeltzin era. What would you consider a properly strong army for Russia? One that is only good for peacekeeping missions?

Quote
expanded role of security services, use of extra-legal militarized formations by the government

For example? And for the security service the same argument and question as above applies.

Quote
... Should I continue? Any one of those or even a few together, perhaps, would not justify the "fascist" lable. But current Russian regime combines them all - and more. It is rapidly becoming a most classic fascist dictatorship - not recognizing it means either ignorance or intellectual dishonesty.
I don't know what to call your distortions of the facts and strange reinterpretation of well defined terms, but it's probably not ignorance.

Quote
Anyway, the undisputed European fascists are in no doubt what they are facing. They all adore Mr. Putin - he is the one of them who got to live the dream.
While the Russian fascists - who probably are in a better position to judge than foreigners - have been very strongly against him.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on June 17, 2014, 06:17:20 PM
As war I am describing moving in a large number foreign agents into the country.
This would hardly be a war even if they were government agents. For which there is scant evidence outside of Ukrainian propaganda. Most governments do not generally arrest  (http://e-l-e-n-a-t.tumblr.com/post/88961908705/pinned-to-the-ground-by-blizzard-of-bullets-the) their agents when they're carrying out their work.

Quote
Strelkov has made speech after speech lambasting the locals for refusing to join in the Struggle: "we came in to fight for you, and you do not want to move a finger". Yes, a popular struggle it is.
Actually, considering that Strelkov has complained multiple times that he's not receiving enough support from Russia, such a claim is hardly believable without a source.
In any case, especially clearly shown by their weapons, when the uprising started, nearly all insurgents were locals. If Russian citizens have arrived since then, they can hardly be blamed for starting it.
Also one wonders why if the local population was so opposed to the uprising they blocked  (in the beginning, before the usage of violence became indiscriminate) the Ukrainian army from advancing against the insurgents.

Quote
These (well-armed) foreign agents occupy not merely public buildings, but military and police installations, distribute guns to local criminals (starting a waive of marauder attackes), arrest or otherwise disappear hundreds of local residents (some of whom are later found dead), declare extra-judicial executions (based on a Soviet decree from June 22, 1941 - I am not joking, this is the preamble to an execution list produced by Strelkov), confiscate private property (such as cars, houses, etc.) for "revolutionary needs", take over a chunk of the border, thorough which they increasingly receive military equipment....
So basically the same as the "freedom fighters" of the Maidan? And even if we accept these claims of mass execution, they occurred only after the "liberation war" had started?
As for the nationalizations, it is pretty obvious that they at least are not influenced by Moscow, as on these issues the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs can easily find a common language.

Quote
Yes, it is not a war. It is a picnic by a group of polite Russian tourists, who are simply "reconstructing" some scenes from WWI. How could Ukrainians be so mistaken?
Considering the not exactly impressive performance of the Ukrainian army so far, they would have lost Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts a long time ago if faced with "polite people" (ie well armed and trained Russian soldiers).

Also again a nice dodge of avoiding discussing the crimes committed in the process of "protecting" the local population by the Ukrainian forces.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on July 05, 2014, 12:11:11 PM
Quote
Ukrainian separatist rebels have pulled back to the main city of Donetsk, abandoning several strongholds in the Donetsk region to government forces.

The pro-Russian gunmen abandoned the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as some smaller towns, in the north of Donetsk region.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28177020


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: BaconBacon96 on July 05, 2014, 05:12:04 PM
Quote
Ukrainian separatist rebels have pulled back to the main city of Donetsk, abandoning several strongholds in the Donetsk region to government forces.

The pro-Russian gunmen abandoned the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as some smaller towns, in the north of Donetsk region.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28177020
They retreated from Sloviansk? That's quite significant. I wonder if this means the beginning of the end of the rebellion.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 09, 2014, 07:10:04 PM
Apparently Russia has sealed the border (http://www.newrepublic.com/article/118606/russia-blocks-ukrainian-rebels-crossing-border-russia), some reports indicate barrier troops fired on rebels trying to flee into Russia. Circular firing squad among rebel leaders (http://www.interpretermag.com/novorossiya-theory-meets-novorossiya-reality-in-donetsk/) was found on tape yesterday. Today Ukraine suggested it's partly about divvying up $$$. (http://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/3298) Gubarev said this morning victory or death.

Interesting theory about whether the campaign to discredit Strelkov has been a Surkov production, with a "Donetsk Transdniestria" as the goal.  (http://www.interpretermag.com/kremlin-grey-cardinal-surkovs-deal-for-a-donetsk-transdniestria/)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 10, 2014, 07:25:54 PM
Ukrainian military retook Karlivka (https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/487231523767472128), 20km from Donetsk. Rebels are trying to evacuate Donetsk.  (http://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/press/3312) Ukrainians say they foiled a rebel plot in Odessa. (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/sbu-russian-plot-to-start-odesa-peoples-republic-foiled-355512.html)

Buzzfeed found documents showing how rebel "justice" involved a WWII decree of Stalin's. In this particular case, summary execution for stealing clothes. (http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/documents-show-rebel-justice-in-east-ukraine-was-bureaucrati)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on July 12, 2014, 11:20:47 PM
Ukrainian air offensive kills 1,000 rebels (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/ukraine-launches-air-offensive-kill-1000-rebels-kiev-says/article19578600/).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 13, 2014, 03:22:49 PM
Interesting RFE interview with a former rebel. (http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-i-was-a-separatist-fighter/25455466.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on July 13, 2014, 06:43:42 PM
Ukrainian air offensive kills 1,000 rebels (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/ukraine-launches-air-offensive-kill-1000-rebels-kiev-says/article19578600/).

Oh.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on July 13, 2014, 07:05:18 PM
Interesting RFE interview with a former rebel. (http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-i-was-a-separatist-fighter/25455466.html)

Are these "Soviet Persons" more of that in the old school Communist scene or more of a Chinese sense where communism is just the origin of their culture and they are no longer communist?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on July 14, 2014, 12:00:49 AM
Looks like Russian invasion may be imminent- a stray shell has landed on the wrong side of the border.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/13/ukraine-crisis-consequences-idUSL5N0OX2E120140713

Ukraine must cool down now. They cannot give Putin a pretext for invasion.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on July 17, 2014, 10:33:05 AM
Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-plane-shot-down-its-fighter-jet.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on July 17, 2014, 03:39:04 PM
Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-plane-shot-down-its-fighter-jet.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.
Before believing the Ukrainian government too much, it should be noted that they haven't proven very trustworthy in the past, for example going as far as claiming that the insurgents in Slavyansk shelled the town themselves to make the Ukrainian army look bad.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on July 17, 2014, 03:45:04 PM
Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-plane-shot-down-its-fighter-jet.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.
Before believing the Ukrainian government too much, it should be noted that they haven't proven very trustworthy in the past, for example going as far as claiming that the insurgents in Slavyansk shelled the town themselves to make the Ukrainian army look bad.

Why are you such a Russian hack? Do you work for Pravda or something?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on July 17, 2014, 04:26:02 PM
Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-plane-shot-down-its-fighter-jet.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.
Before believing the Ukrainian government too much, it should be noted that they haven't proven very trustworthy in the past, for example going as far as claiming that the insurgents in Slavyansk shelled the town themselves to make the Ukrainian army look bad.

Why are you such a Russian hack? Do you work for Pravda or something?
Does a Russian hack means someone who doesn't swallow every preposterous lie the Ukraine media government supplies to Western media? If so, I am. If we use a common sense definition of the term, certainly not. If you had bothered to check my other posts you would have seen for example that I believed that the pro-Russian rebels shot down the Malaysian plane today. But of course that would require effort which someone who prefers to have a simple-minded black and white world-view would be unlike to make. And of course you could read my other posts on this very page, and I'm ready to defend everything that I've written there - if you were able to use actual arguments, instead of reflexive name calling.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on July 17, 2014, 04:39:53 PM
If the rebels shot down the plane, the 'best' case now would be for Russia to realize that they've been providing weapons to a bunch of drunkards and to step back from the conflict (probably unofficially, since they deny being involved), forcing the rebels to negotiate. Of course that seems optimistic.

If the Ukrainian loyalists or the Russian army are responsible, it's going to be bad...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 17, 2014, 05:00:34 PM
Azov Battalion enlisting foreign neo-Nazis. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28329329)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on July 19, 2014, 01:41:33 AM
I'm going to leave this here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1409sXBleg)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 19, 2014, 01:49:52 AM
I'm going to leave this here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1409sXBleg)

The President is right, because there is no ideological struggle between NATO and Putin's Russia, both of which are firmly in the hands of opposed sets of private oligarchs (though arguably Russia's domestic policy is embracing traditional conservatism in order to court the favor of the Orthodox Church). This is entirely two opposing imperialist sides jockeying for influence in a strategically important and quite populous European state.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on July 19, 2014, 04:26:51 AM
I'm going to leave this here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1409sXBleg)

Without hindsight, Obama was certainly right at the time and I'm still wondering how Romney arrived at the conclusion that Russia is America's "geopolitical foe no. 1". If anything, you had to name China from a 2012 perspective.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on July 19, 2014, 08:55:04 PM
Without hindsight, Obama was certainly right at the time and I'm still wondering how Romney arrived at the conclusion that Russia is America's "geopolitical foe no. 1". If anything, you had to name China from a 2012 perspective.

Because their alliance with Iran and Loyalist Syria? The invasion of Georgia to teach the West a lesson about who's sphere of influence is who's?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beezer on July 20, 2014, 05:57:41 AM
I'm going to leave this here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1409sXBleg)

Without hindsight, Obama was certainly right at the time and I'm still wondering how Romney arrived at the conclusion that Russia is America's "geopolitical foe no. 1". If anything, you had to name China from a 2012 perspective.

Or maybe Romney just had a modicum of foresight.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: King on July 20, 2014, 11:29:15 AM
I'm going to leave this here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1409sXBleg)

Without hindsight, Obama was certainly right at the time and I'm still wondering how Romney arrived at the conclusion that Russia is America's "geopolitical foe no. 1". If anything, you had to name China from a 2012 perspective.

Or maybe Romney just had a modicum of foresight.

Romney's campaign was the opposite of being led by someone with foresight.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on July 20, 2014, 08:23:50 PM
I agreed with Romney at the time and didn't get why do many people didn't. Don't get me wrong Islamic Extremism was the most direct and actively lethal threat but in the grand scheme of things Russia was clearly the main "enemy". Our foreign policy interests directly conflict in a number of areas. Russia wants to be a major superpower again and doing so involves redrawing the world order and with America being the status quo power this fundamentally will bring us into conflict and tension.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: King on July 21, 2014, 10:21:20 AM
Russia is really, really weak. What's happening now is a meager attempt to try and restore national pride. They aren't anywhere close to being a major threat to US interests.

The worst thing we can do is treat them as somebody important when they're not.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on July 21, 2014, 06:25:12 PM
I'm not.sure how weak they are with nuclear weapons, thousands of Tanks, hundreds of billionaires with expropriable assets, public opinion by all measures supporting the regime... sure, they might have poor foreign relations but both their capability to do harm is quite high and our capability (or willingness) to retaliate still seems to be limited. The USSR was a far poorer and smaller economy than the US. That did not mean they were able to pose a major threat.

The fact that only ~52% of the member states of the UN voted yes to condemn a blatantly fraudulent, deceptive, forceful, and illegal annexation of another country, which pretty much threatens every country that prefers not to be invaded by a neighbour, is proof of how much clout Russia can wield.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 21, 2014, 06:36:47 PM
The fact that only ~52% of the member states of the UN voted yes to condemn a blatantly fraudulent, deceptive, forceful, and illegal annexation of another country

I'm fairly certain Ukraine still exists.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: IceSpear on July 21, 2014, 06:48:59 PM
I'm not.sure how weak they are with nuclear weapons, thousands of Tanks, hundreds of billionaires with expropriable assets, public opinion by all measures supporting the regime... sure, they might have poor foreign relations but both their capability to do harm is quite high and our capability (or willingness) to retaliate still seems to be limited. The USSR was a far poorer and smaller economy than the US. That did not mean they were able to pose a major threat.

The fact that only ~52% of the member states of the UN voted yes to condemn a blatantly fraudulent, deceptive, forceful, and illegal annexation of another country, which pretty much threatens every country that prefers not to be invaded by a neighbour, is proof of how much clout Russia can wield.

It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on July 22, 2014, 12:06:51 AM
I'm sure they could take over the whole tthing and nothing would change.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Knives on July 22, 2014, 05:04:40 AM
I'm not.sure how weak they are with nuclear weapons, thousands of Tanks, hundreds of billionaires with expropriable assets, public opinion by all measures supporting the regime... sure, they might have poor foreign relations but both their capability to do harm is quite high and our capability (or willingness) to retaliate still seems to be limited. The USSR was a far poorer and smaller economy than the US. That did not mean they were able to pose a major threat.

The fact that only ~52% of the member states of the UN voted yes to condemn a blatantly fraudulent, deceptive, forceful, and illegal annexation of another country, which pretty much threatens every country that prefers not to be invaded by a neighbour, is proof of how much clout Russia can wield.

It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

The UN works well, it's just the Security Council is a mess.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 22, 2014, 06:41:43 AM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 22, 2014, 03:18:35 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 22, 2014, 05:23:37 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 22, 2014, 05:26:43 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?

teh free market


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on July 22, 2014, 08:16:53 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?

teh free market

Isn't that making a comeback because of our homegrown crackpots?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 23, 2014, 01:08:47 PM
Enlightened western-style democracy! (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/communist-party-ousted-from-ukraine-parliament/503966.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 23, 2014, 02:16:59 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Edward Jenner.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on July 23, 2014, 03:35:13 PM
Enlightened western-style democracy! (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/communist-party-ousted-from-ukraine-parliament/503966.html)
It is irrational to expect the full extent of western democracy in unstable areas like Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on July 23, 2014, 03:38:15 PM
Enlightened western-style democracy! (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/communist-party-ousted-from-ukraine-parliament/503966.html)

You're pathetic.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on July 23, 2014, 04:22:45 PM
In other news, France is still intending to deliver the first of two Mistral-class amphibious assault ships to the Russian navy this fall and continues to see no reason for cancelling the deal.

So, if anyone assumed that the EU is implementing sanctions on Russia... FORGET IT. The bottomline is that Russia is paying France almost two billion Euros for two warships (and the United States isn't).

At least the German government seems to be somewhat discontent with France's behavior, especially since Germany had already ordered arms industry giant Rheinmetall to stop building a high-tech "combat training center" for the Russian army right after Crimea happened.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 23, 2014, 04:24:28 PM
Putin will reportedly give Ukraine an ultimatum tomorrow at a special Duma session: negotiate w/GRU folks or we inv... I mean, keep the peace.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MalaspinaGold on July 23, 2014, 07:08:33 PM
Cite?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 23, 2014, 07:13:16 PM
Here.  (https://twitter.com/TarasKuzio/status/492047626250878976) Waiting for confirmation about the ultimatum part, hence "reportedly."


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on July 23, 2014, 10:44:31 PM
Putin Recalls State Duma From Vacation, "Planning Something" On Ukraine Situation

Quote
In a somewhat disconcerting move, Russian President Vladimir Putin has recalled The State Duma from a planned vacation to participate in an unscheduled meeting because of the situation in eastern Ukraine. As Ukrinform reports, sources confirm "Something is being planned, because many deputies come, probably for a quorum." Rumors are spreading that Putin is set to issue Kiev an ultimatum over recognizing separatists or face military intervention.

Quote
Russian attempt to legalize the terrorists as a political entity

Recognition?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/putin-recalls-state-duma-vacation-planning-something-ukraine-situation


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on July 23, 2014, 11:53:09 PM
It seems like Donetsk and Luhansk are just more trouble than they are worth. If I were Ukrainian, I would detach those areas and join NATO.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Eraserhead on July 24, 2014, 07:34:21 AM
Some parts of this thread are just so bad. Eek.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on July 24, 2014, 07:43:05 AM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Seriously?  Not the UN.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on July 24, 2014, 08:32:50 AM
UDAR and Svoboda just left the governmental coalition, paving the way for new elections.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on July 24, 2014, 09:55:07 AM
Putin Recalls State Duma From Vacation, "Planning Something" On Ukraine Situation

Quote
In a somewhat disconcerting move, Russian President Vladimir Putin has recalled The State Duma from a planned vacation to participate in an unscheduled meeting because of the situation in eastern Ukraine. As Ukrinform reports, sources confirm "Something is being planned, because many deputies come, probably for a quorum." Rumors are spreading that Putin is set to issue Kiev an ultimatum over recognizing separatists or face military intervention.

Quote
Russian attempt to legalize the terrorists as a political entity

Recognition?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/putin-recalls-state-duma-vacation-planning-something-ukraine-situation

Why aren't any mainstream new sources picking this up? I see nothing on Al-Jazeera, France24, CNN, or even RT.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 24, 2014, 02:24:10 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Seriously?  Not the UN.

Who, then?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 24, 2014, 04:13:48 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Seriously?  Not the UN.

Who, then?
Edward Jenner...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on July 24, 2014, 04:24:44 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Seriously?  Not the UN.

Who, then?
Edward Jenner...

That's not technically wrong but it completely misses the point. It's like saying because you oppose Polish nationalism that Bartolomeo Cristofori can be credited with Chopin's Scherzo No. 2.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 24, 2014, 05:26:17 PM
Moreover, it is literally wrong to claim that because Edward Jenner discovered the smallpox vaccine that the United Nations was not responsible for the eradication of the disease.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 24, 2014, 09:13:21 PM
Moreover, it is literally wrong to claim that because Edward Jenner discovered the smallpox vaccine that the United Nations was not responsible for the eradication of the disease.
If the UN didn't exist, the Red Cross would have eventually eradicated it. And even if the UN is effective in this area, is it still efective at its core political purpose?



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 24, 2014, 09:49:45 PM
Moreover, it is literally wrong to claim that because Edward Jenner discovered the smallpox vaccine that the United Nations was not responsible for the eradication of the disease.
If the UN didn't exist, the Red Cross would have eventually eradicated it. And even if the UN is effective in this area, is it still efective at its core political purpose?



I'm convinced you have little to no knowledge of the world outside the United States.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on July 24, 2014, 09:55:20 PM
Moreover, it is literally wrong to claim that because Edward Jenner discovered the smallpox vaccine that the United Nations was not responsible for the eradication of the disease.
If the UN didn't exist, the Red Cross would have eventually eradicated it. And even if the UN is effective in this area, is it still efective at its core political purpose?



I'm convinced you have little to no knowledge of the world outside the United States.

You probably have the same knowledge, both biaised. One by the American, sanitized, fact-deforming, biaised mass media, one by the Alternative, selective, fact-deforming, biaised internet media.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on July 24, 2014, 10:06:45 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Seriously?  Not the UN.

Who, then?

Was this hint deliberate?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 24, 2014, 10:12:00 PM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Seriously?  Not the UN.

Who, then?

Was this hint deliberate?

Well done.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 25, 2014, 03:34:14 AM
Altho, WHO is merely the continuation of the Health Organisation of the League of Nations, so should anything it does really be credited to the UN per se?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on July 25, 2014, 05:21:30 AM
It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.
In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?
Seriously?  Not the UN.

Who, then?
yes


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Јas on July 25, 2014, 08:10:48 AM
Altho, WHO is merely the continuation of the Health Organisation of the League of Nations, so should anything it does really be credited to the UN per se?

You propose the credit go to the League of Nations instead?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on July 25, 2014, 08:43:54 AM
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/07/24/334974644/u-s-russia-based-artillery-targeting-ukrainian-troops?ft=1&f=1001


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 25, 2014, 09:23:37 AM
I trust the State Department about as much as I trust the Kremlin.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on July 25, 2014, 09:26:48 AM
I trust the State Department about as much as I trust the Kremlin.

Sorry, but the U.S. has had the far more believable case throughout the Ukraine crisis. Also:

https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/491997024737570816
http://cs620429.vk.me/v620429164/ea66/k14ggwJC9qk.jpg


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 25, 2014, 10:35:39 AM
Altho, WHO is merely the continuation of the Health Organisation of the League of Nations, so should anything it does really be credited to the UN per se?

You propose the credit go to the League of Nations instead?

My point was more that even without a UN that attempts to solve international political problems, we'd have an organization doing the work of the WHO even without it being part of an ineffective world government.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on July 25, 2014, 10:55:13 AM
The UN is effective when neither Russia nor the US have direct interests in the conflict.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: GMantis on July 26, 2014, 08:48:47 AM
I trust the State Department about as much as I trust the Kremlin.

Sorry, but the U.S. has had the far more believable case throughout the Ukraine crisis. Also:

https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/491997024737570816
http://cs620429.vk.me/v620429164/ea66/k14ggwJC9qk.jpg
And this is evidence why exactly? It's not as if to social networks are immune to fake news.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on July 29, 2014, 08:13:10 AM
Altho, WHO is merely the continuation of the Health Organisation of the League of Nations, so should anything it does really be credited to the UN per se?

You propose the credit go to the League of Nations instead?

My point was more that even without a UN that attempts to solve international political problems, we'd have an organization doing the work of the WHO even without it being part of an ineffective world government.
If you think that the UN is, or is even intended to be, a world government, you're completely missing the point.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on July 30, 2014, 03:51:41 AM
In related news, French-in-Russian-tax-exile actor Gerard Depardieu could be appointed head of the new Crimean wine agency:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/gerard-depardieu-should-oversee-wine-721566

http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2014/07/depardieu-to-be-face-of-crimean-wine/


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on July 30, 2014, 07:21:46 AM
In related news, French-in-Russian-tax-exile actor Gerard Depardieu could be appointed head of the new Crimean wine agency:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/gerard-depardieu-should-oversee-wine-721566

http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2014/07/depardieu-to-be-face-of-crimean-wine/
That's f**king hilarious.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on July 30, 2014, 08:46:12 AM
We know that Depardieu is a connaisseur. FTR, I watched Novecento (1900, by Bernardo Bertolucci) in TV on past Sunday. Depardieu is an Italian communist peasant in that movie and I couldn't help but thinking on that special friendship between the French actor and Putin. I don't know why I made such association.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on August 06, 2014, 11:48:38 AM
NATO says Russia may be about to invade. We are approaching the six year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Georgia. It may behoove Ukraine to temporarily declare a cease fire to remove any possible pretext for Russian intervention.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 06, 2014, 03:47:01 PM
NATO says Russia may be about to invade. We are approaching the six year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Georgia. It may behoove Ukraine to temporarily declare a cease fire to remove any possible pretext for Russian intervention.
Because being supine worked do well in Crimea?  If Putin wants to invade, a mere cease-fire that his troops already in Ukraine won't abide by will not stop him.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 06, 2014, 03:59:12 PM
NATO says Russia may be about to invade. We are approaching the six year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Georgia. It may behoove Ukraine to temporarily declare a cease fire to remove any possible pretext for Russian intervention.

It would be a sign of desperation. Russia's MO throughout this whole conflict has been to avoid open confrontation and maintain a certain level of plausible deniability- to openly invade Ukraine would be recognition their efforts were stalling.

This would be considerably more drastic than the invasion of Georgia, considering that the Abkhaz and South Ossetians had established themselves, almost entirely without outside assistance, for the better part of two decades up to that point. In contrast, the entities in the Donbas are almost entirely the product of Russian agents, enjoy at best dubious legitimacy amongst their would-be citizens, and have already managed to attract global outrage.

One wonders at what point China and other "emerging powers" will be sufficiently unsettled by Russian belligerence to call for action.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 07, 2014, 12:48:34 PM
Just back from Russia.  Should write up the impressions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2014, 12:52:08 PM
Ukraine says the rebel plan was to shoot down an Aeroflot airliner as a false-flag invasion pretext, but the BUK was sent to the wrong town. (http://20committee.com/2014/08/07/latest-ukrainian-intelligence-news/)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 07, 2014, 12:54:35 PM
Ukraine says the rebel plan was to shoot down an Aeroflot airliner as a false-flag invasion pretext, but the BUK was sent to the wrong town. (http://20committee.com/2014/08/07/latest-ukrainian-intelligence-news/)

A random right-wing blog post (I snooped around other posts which primarily consist of Islamophobia and general paranoia) which cites only a local Ukrainian news station doesn't seem to be the most reliable source.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 07, 2014, 12:58:53 PM
Seems like Russian disinformation.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 07, 2014, 01:26:29 PM
The Russian leader of the Donetsk People's Republic stepped down in favor of a local guy. It may be small step towards a peace process.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2014, 11:54:07 AM
Business seems to get serious now.

The Ukrainian forces seem to have encircled and cut off Luhansk completely now and the Donezk rebel leader Strelkow has stepped down:

Quote
Die Regierungstruppen hätten das Dorf Nowoswitliwka eingenommen und damit die letzte Verbindungsstraße zum russischen Grenzübergang von Iswaryn abgeschnitten, sagte der Armeesprecher Andrej Lyssenko am Donnerstag. Damit sei Luhansk nun vollständig von der ukrainischen Armee eingeschlossen.

http://derstandard.at/2000004391613/Regierungstruppen-haben-Luhansk-vollstaendig-umstellt

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28792966


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2014, 12:21:20 PM
So, the Russians sent 250 white lorries to the Ukraine border with "food" inside. A possible trojan horse, or is it for real ?

()

Ukraine is doing the same, sending 80 lorries to the East:

()

And a Ukrainian billionaire said that next week 10.000 tons of food will follow.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 14, 2014, 02:49:38 PM
Here is my point of view on the situation in Ukraine:

This conflict is clearly escalating, and the Ukrainian government is lucky that the international attention has been focusing on other things. The loyalists are now shelling the big cities controlled by the rebels and there are many civilian casualties. It's a bit sad to see a European country bombing its own citizens in 2014, and getting away with it.

So now the loyalists are making progress towards the main cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and are clearly determined to get rid of the rebels, at almost any price. On the other side, the main political leaders of the rebels are fleeing now that things are looking bad for them. But the local guys, the normal fighters really believe that they are fighting against neo-nazis (which is not 100% false) and keep referring to a new Stalingard. They seem determined to fight until the last man.

This situation is a bit embarrassing for the European countries and the US who blindly supported the loyalists at the beginning, but now this conflict really has the potential to turn very ugly, and something has to do about it.

While the Western opinion is looking somewhere else, Putin is under heavy internal pressure to do something. The military conflict is about to be lost for the rebels, Putin knows it and anyway he also realized that they are not reliable at all. But he really has to do something, and the least he can do is to help the civilian population.  

So I think the convoy is not a trojan horse. The Ukrainian government is understandably paranoid and it would be a good compromise to allow international inspectors to verify it at the border. Ukraine is now afraid to be seen as the bad guys, so they are sending their own convoy too.

It's a good thing that both Russians and Ukrainians are sending humanitarian in Donetsk and Luhansk. They are also going to serve as human shields and fighters on both side will have to refrain from getting crazy.

Remember that many have been saying for weeks that this conflict needs to end in an honorable way for Putin. That's probably it. Both sides need to start negotiating soon, and the battles of Donestk and Luhansk must not happen because they would be really awful.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 14, 2014, 07:28:57 PM
One

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Also, in the last week TWICE a major Putin address was advertised, both time not to happen. The first time, it was supposed to be on Russian TV, local stations were told there will be a presidential address, so that they would clear their broadcast schedule - never happened. Then yesterday Putin had a meeting with the Duma members in Crimea. There was a major build-up to him making a big speech - in the end, the Russian newscasts only briefly showed him talking (late in the newscast!) and quoted a few words (not even his voice was broadcast). Seems like there was another last-minute change of plans.

Today major changes in the "governments" of the two "people's republics". Clearly, Russian-orchestrated.  Now there is a persistent rumor, something major is supposed to happen in the last week of August. God save us all.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 14, 2014, 08:26:29 PM
Here is my point of view on the situation in Ukraine:

This conflict is clearly escalating, and the Ukrainian government is lucky that the international attention has been focusing on other things. The loyalists are now shelling the big cities controlled by the rebels and there are many civilian casualties. It's a bit sad to see a European country bombing its own citizens in 2014, and getting away with it.

So now the loyalists are making progress towards the main cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and are clearly determined to get rid of the rebels, at almost any price. On the other side, the main political leaders of the rebels are fleeing now that things are looking bad for them. But the local guys, the normal fighters really believe that they are fighting against neo-nazis (which is not 100% false) and keep referring to a new Stalingard. They seem determined to fight until the last man.

This situation is a bit embarrassing for the European countries and the US who blindly supported the loyalists at the beginning, but now this conflict really has the potential to turn very ugly, and something has to do about it.

While the Western opinion is looking somewhere else, Putin is under heavy internal pressure to do something. The military conflict is about to be lost for the rebels, Putin knows it and anyway he also realized that they are not reliable at all. But he really has to do something, and the least he can do is to help the civilian population.  

So I think the convoy is not a trojan horse. The Ukrainian government is understandably paranoid and it would be a good compromise to allow international inspectors to verify it at the border. Ukraine is now afraid to be seen as the bad guys, so they are sending their own convoy too.

It's a good thing that both Russians and Ukrainians are sending humanitarian in Donetsk and Luhansk. They are also going to serve as human shields and fighters on both side will have to refrain from getting crazy.

Remember that many have been saying for weeks that this conflict needs to end in an honorable way for Putin. That's probably it. Both sides need to start negotiating soon, and the battles of Donestk and Luhansk must not happen because they would be really awful.

Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 14, 2014, 08:39:28 PM
So, the Russians sent 250 white lorries to the Ukraine border with "food" inside. A possible trojan horse, or is it for real ?

()

Tell them to go back where they came from.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on August 14, 2014, 08:51:18 PM
Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Not sure if the government should stop its offensive or not, but if Russian arms continue to pour across the border, and the government halts its offensive, it may not be able to regain the initiative. They may feel they are in a race against time. On the other hand, Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face, as well as care about the future feelings of the population there, as they want to reintegrate these cities back into the Ukrainian polity. These considerations need to be taken into account, as military dimensions are not the only dimension, there is also political dimensions.

But it would be better if the rebels could just be convinced to give up. If they really care about the people there, why are they fortifying themselves in the cities determined to fight it out? They have no chance of winning without Russian intervention. It seems these local "fighters" are awfully selfish, if they are determined to go down in a  blaze of glory and talk about Stalingrad where over 2 million people died.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 14, 2014, 08:56:24 PM
The bastards must be stopped:

Quote
But, while the trucks came to a halt well short of Ukraine's border, a different Russian convoy did make the crossing into Ukrainian territory late on Thursday evening.

The Guardian saw a column of 23 armoured personnel carriers, supported by fuel trucks and other logistics vehicles with official Russian military plates, travelling towards the border near the Russian town of Donetsk – about 200km away from Donetsk, Ukraine.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 14, 2014, 08:58:25 PM

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 14, 2014, 09:00:45 PM
The bastards must be stopped:

Quote
But, while the trucks came to a halt well short of Ukraine's border, a different Russian convoy did make the crossing into Ukrainian territory late on Thursday evening.

The Guardian saw a column of 23 armoured personnel carriers, supported by fuel trucks and other logistics vehicles with official Russian military plates, travelling towards the border near the Russian town of Donetsk – about 200km away from Donetsk, Ukraine.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

They have been doing this for months, just not in sight of the Western media. Who is supposed to be doing the stopping? Ukrainians tried doing it by pushing a force along the border - with the most disastrous results (it got sandwiched between the "rebels" on one side and the regular Russians on the other - and all but destroyed). As we speak, they got another army group surrounded on the border. But, of course, they are supposed to be thinking how to let Mr. Putin "save his face".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 14, 2014, 09:07:49 PM
Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Not sure if the government should stop its offensive or not, but if Russian arms continue to pour across the border, and the government halts its offensive, it may not be able to regain the initiative. They may feel they are in a race against time. On the other hand, Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face, as well as care about the future feelings of the population there, as they want to reintegrate these cities back into the Ukrainian polity. These considerations need to be taken into account, as military dimensions are not the only dimension, there is also political dimensions.

But it would be better if the rebels could just be convinced to give up. If they really care about the people there, why are they fortifying themselves in the cities determined to fight it out? They have no chance of winning without Russian intervention. It seems these local "fighters" are awfully selfish, if they are determined to go down in a  blaze of glory and talk about Stalingrad where over 2 million people died.

Especially after today, there is no longer any pretense that "rebels" have any independent decision-making authority. The potentially independent guys like Strelkov in Donetsk (a Russian from Moscow, but not really a Putin puppet, more of a murderous romantic with delusions of own grandeur) and Bolotov in Luhansk (actually, a local guy, with some ideas of his own) have been replaced by Russian-controlled soldiers. So, at this point, all questions should be addressed straight to Moscow. Why do they want to run street battles in the cities? Well, those are not their cities.  But, of course, we all should try to figure out how to "let Mr. Putin save his face".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 14, 2014, 09:19:33 PM

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

Precious or not, if Putin can't claim some fig leaf, he is quite unlikely to stop what he is doing.  Thanks to the downed airliner, there really is nothing more he can hope to gain right now without starting a full-scale war and a complete break with the West.  While Putin might well do that if the alternative is being perceived as having backed down, I don't think he desires that.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 14, 2014, 09:22:38 PM

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

Precious or not, if Putin can't claim some fig leaf, he is quite unlikely to stop what he is doing.

I am afraid, this particular "if" part is superfluous here. He is unlikely to stop it whether he can claim a fig leaf or not. He can only be stopped.


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: Simfan34 on August 14, 2014, 09:46:17 PM
A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.

ugh


Title: Re: Pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine
Post by: ag on August 14, 2014, 09:55:20 PM
A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.

ugh

Well, he probably also thinks Holland does not exist.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Miles on August 15, 2014, 12:15:16 AM
Quote
The Int. Spectator ‏@INTLSpectator  33s
BREAKING: Thirty Russian armoured vehicles have just crossed the border into Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 15, 2014, 05:58:12 AM
Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.
Groups like Pravy Sektor and other militias are still fighting along with the Ukranian army. They are a small minority, but being the most fanatical, they are always on the frontline. If you prefer "fascists" rather than "neo-nazis", I am also fine with it, it does not make much of a different anyway.

The rebels may surrender to the regular Ukrainian army, but they will never surrender to these militias.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on August 15, 2014, 06:15:49 AM
In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/08/14/national/u-s-recognizes-japans-sovereignty-over-russian-held-isles-official/#.U-3rE3ZOnxh).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on August 15, 2014, 06:42:55 AM
In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/08/14/national/u-s-recognizes-japans-sovereignty-over-russian-held-isles-official/#.U-3rE3ZOnxh).

The latter part is a bit silly IMO.

In the Treaty of San Francisco, Japan had to give up claims on the Kuril Islands and now the US is backing away from this. Well, as long as America doesn't insist that Kaliningrad still belongs to Germany...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 15, 2014, 09:28:00 AM
Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.
Groups like Pravy Sektor and other militias are still fighting along with the Ukranian army. They are a small minority, but being the most fanatical, they are always on the frontline. If you prefer "fascists" rather than "neo-nazis", I am also fine with it, it does not make much of a different anyway.

The rebels may surrender to the regular Ukrainian army, but they will never surrender to these militias.

Most pro-Ukrainian irregular militias are, actually, composed of Donetsk amd Luhansk natives (batallions Donetsk, Azov, Aydar, ets.), who chose to fight the Russians. They are also the most ruthless. Pravy Sektor  proper is a tiny group. Yes, they are also fighting, but they are infinitecimal. Of course, this does not prevent their opponents from calling everybody "pravy sektor". But, then, again, they claim that everyone who has ever said "thank you" in Ukrainian is a fascist.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on August 15, 2014, 10:32:48 AM
Quote
The Int. Spectator ‏@INTLSpectator  33s
BREAKING: Thirty Russian armoured vehicles have just crossed the border into Ukraine.

Breaking: Ukraine claims to have attacked and partially destroyed Russian military convoy.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukrainische-truppen-greifen-russischen-konvoi-an-a-986396.html (in German, don't have time to look for an English link right now)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on August 15, 2014, 10:56:29 AM
And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2014, 11:02:57 AM
And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Time to mine the whole border to Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 15, 2014, 11:23:55 AM
And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Time to mine the whole border to Russia.

That part of the  border on Ukrainian side is under full "rebel"/Russian control. Ukrainians tried to take it over, got surrounded (naturally, they were hit from one side by the "rebels", and on the other side by the Russians, against whom they could not respond for fear of being accused of attacking Russia) and almost wiped out (with great difficulty they managed to extricate part of the troops; a few more had to go into Russia, where some are still detained; a lot are missing).  They are now trying to severe Donetsk from Luhansk well within their own territory - they, basically, cannot operate near the Russian border at all (they claim that Russian artillery, based on Russian territory, has been in active action for quite a while - just out of sight of the Western media).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 15, 2014, 01:02:44 PM
And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Good for them! An escalation, but necessary retaliation.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 15, 2014, 02:01:04 PM
In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/08/14/national/u-s-recognizes-japans-sovereignty-over-russian-held-isles-official/#.U-3rE3ZOnxh).

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 15, 2014, 02:47:40 PM
In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/08/14/national/u-s-recognizes-japans-sovereignty-over-russian-held-isles-official/#.U-3rE3ZOnxh).

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 15, 2014, 02:50:22 PM
Haishenwai! :D


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on August 15, 2014, 02:56:09 PM
Only if Germany gets Konigsberg back.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 15, 2014, 03:02:54 PM
In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/08/14/national/u-s-recognizes-japans-sovereignty-over-russian-held-isles-official/#.U-3rE3ZOnxh).

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai :)

I think you can understand the difference between the situations in Eastern Ukraine (for the record I don't support Putin's incursion there, though I couldn't care less about Crimea) and the Kuril Islands.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 15, 2014, 03:30:49 PM
In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/08/14/national/u-s-recognizes-japans-sovereignty-over-russian-held-isles-official/#.U-3rE3ZOnxh).

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai :)

I think you can understand the difference between the situations in Eastern Ukraine (for the record I don't support Putin's incursion there, though I couldn't care less about Crimea) and the Kuril Islands.

Yes, I see the difference. Russia many times solemnly pledged to recognize and protect the borders of Ukraine (including Crimea) whereas Japan has always claimed the Northern Territories (South Kurils is the Russian name - the Japanese have never acknowledged the four islands to be a part of the Kurils). If anything, the Japanese claim seems a lot stronger.

In any case, how about Haishenwai? Would take care of any Chinese objections that one, that is for sure :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 15, 2014, 03:35:50 PM
I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 15, 2014, 04:52:07 PM
I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on August 15, 2014, 07:28:13 PM
I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai :)
Has Japan ever seriously claimed that area beyond their Russian Civil War misadventures?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 15, 2014, 08:10:40 PM
I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai :)
Has Japan ever seriously claimed that area beyond their Russian Civil War misadventures?

Did I say anything about Japan?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 15, 2014, 08:19:32 PM
The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

What else is Russia supposed to do for the invasion to be official? Have Putin notify Merkel in person?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on August 15, 2014, 09:19:02 PM
It's time to stand up to the bully.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 16, 2014, 09:35:06 AM
The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

???


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 16, 2014, 12:35:39 PM
The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

???

What makes you wonder?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 18, 2014, 11:36:02 AM
Looks like in the last few days Russia brought in major reinforcements. Ukrainians are in real danger of a serious military defeat right now. At the very least, the war is escalating badly.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 18, 2014, 01:45:29 PM
On something different, some members of Right Sector were arrested a few days ago. Two days ago the leaders of the group threatened to leave the eastern front and to walk on Kiev instead. After these threats, the members of the group were released today and some official at the Interior Ministry fired.

I think these groups are the key factor for a peace treaty. If Poroshenko manages to control them, it will allow the rebels and Putin to claim that the fascist threat has been stopped. But he cannot crack down on them too brutally, because they are still useful in the East and they are able to create a big mess in Kiev if they decide to.

Also, tens of civilian refugees fleeing Luhansk were killed when their convoy was attacked, both sides trade blame.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 18, 2014, 02:00:42 PM
The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

???

What makes you wonder?

They say it so blatantly?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 18, 2014, 02:54:29 PM
On something different, some members of Right Sector were arrested a few days ago. Two days ago the leaders of the group threatened to leave the eastern front and to walk on Kiev instead. After these threats, the members of the group were released today and some official at the Interior Ministry fired.

I think these groups are the key factor for a peace treaty. If Poroshenko manages to control them, it will allow the rebels and Putin to claim that the fascist threat has been stopped. But he cannot crack down on them too brutally, because they are still useful in the East and they are able to create a big mess in Kiev if they decide to.

Also, tens of civilian refugees fleeing Luhansk were killed when their convoy was attacked, both sides trade blame.

"Right sector" is near negligible, at this point. It us but one of many volunteer units fighting on the Ukrainian side. Many of these are, basically, groups of easterners, fighting in their own territory. They are, sometimes, insubordinate - but fascists they are not. As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.

As for "fascists", etc. - this is hopeless. In the current Russian parlance EVERY Ukrainian is a fascist, unless he is in the pocket of the Russians. So is EVERY American, incidentally (unless his last name happens to be Snowden). Putin needs the "fascist threat" - he is not going to argue that it "has been stopped". Of course, the only true fascist threat in the world these days is presented by him and his government - and it HAS TO BE STOPPED.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 18, 2014, 02:58:08 PM
The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

???

What makes you wonder?

They say it so blatantly?

And?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 18, 2014, 03:26:57 PM
As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.
It should not be too difficult to get rid of them then.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 18, 2014, 03:31:13 PM
As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.
It should not be too difficult to get rid of them then.

Get rid of whom? Of a myth?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 19, 2014, 11:02:40 AM
I have to disagree with you when you consider them negligible, and even more a myth. The proof is that it is enough for them to threaten Poroshenko for him to concede to their demands within one day.

And I am not the one who decided to give them so much importance. Whether it's because of an emphasis on them by the rebels and Russia, or thanks to good public relations, they somehow reached an importance much bigger that their number of fighters would indicate at first sight.



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 19, 2014, 03:51:06 PM
I have to disagree with you when you consider them negligible, and even more a myth. The proof is that it is enough for them to threaten Poroshenko for him to concede to their demands within one day.

And I am not the one who decided to give them so much importance. Whether it's because of an emphasis on them by the rebels and Russia, or thanks to good public relations, they somehow reached an importance much bigger that their number of fighters would indicate at first sight.


Well, considering that Russians tend to classifyl anybody who says "hi" in Ukrainian as a member of the "Right Sector", this is not surprising.  I will have to qualify my statement to say that, though nearly irrelevant in Ukraine, they are not irrelevant among those who get their news from (translated or not) Russian sources. Unfortunately, there is very little Ukrainians can do about it: it is not about Ukraine at all.

Once again: in Russian media these days ALL Ukrainians are fascists: simply by virtue of being Ukrainians. This includes Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, Klichko and all their followers. Most Russians are now convinced of this. This has exactly nothing to do with Dmitry Yarosh and his few known followers. Short of committing suicide and ordering his troops to do the same there is nothing Poroshenko (or anybody else) could do to satisfy the Russian public opinion at this point. It would be a fools errand to try. Kill Yarosh - the Russians will ask why haven´t you killed Yatsenyuk.

And no, Putin is not looking for an exit. He does not need a pretext to get out. I am not sure he wants to get in en force at this point (he might be reasonable enough to realize it would be too costly), but he wants Ukrainians to continue dying in large numbers for as long as possible, and for the area around Donetsk to stay miserable no-man´s land for as long as possible: for decades, if he can get his way. Ideally, he would do the same in the rest of Ukraine as well (and beyond) - as long as he cannot have the whole country to himself, that is. His goons are going to make sure that thousands more people die - the more the merrier.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on August 22, 2014, 11:02:55 AM
Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Blue3 on August 22, 2014, 11:03:36 AM
Invasion has begun.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on August 22, 2014, 11:06:36 AM
Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.

They already bombed another Russian convoy last week.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on August 22, 2014, 11:10:34 AM
Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.

They already bombed another Russian convoy last week.
That was one of the many undeclared military convoys, not to mention there is no proof that ukraine actually hit it chances are it was bluster. This is russias official white humanitarian trucks now.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 22, 2014, 11:41:02 AM
Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.

They already bombed another Russian convoy last week.
That was one of the many undeclared military convoys, not to mention there is no proof that ukraine actually hit it chances are it was bluster. This is russias official white humanitarian trucks now.

Seems like the main objective of those trucks (carrying, according to those who managed to peak in some of them, mostly, clean Russian air - plus some small quantities of salt, bottled water, tea and the like) is to bring in their drivers, who are going to fight - and the trucks themselves that the "rebels" might find useful.

Once again it seems a major escalation is about to begin. Russians are concentrating on the border. Ukrainians are trying to concentrate whatever they have left. August 24 is Independence Day in Ukraine. They are planning a military parade in Kiev - with the troops to march from the parade straight to the front (conscious imitation of November 7, 1941 parade in Moscow, of course).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 22, 2014, 11:43:24 AM
Actually, it seems some of the first trucks are already on fire. They tried to get into Luhansk and have been stopped.


Title: It must have been just a minor childish prank, nothing serious
Post by: ag on August 22, 2014, 04:27:38 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/russia-moves-artillery-units-into-ukraine-nato-says.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Ok. Now this is acknowledged officially.  Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian Army from Ukrainian territory: NATO knows it. What the hell are they planning to do about it ?!


Title: Re: It must have been just a minor childish prank, nothing serious
Post by: politicus on August 22, 2014, 04:35:35 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/russia-moves-artillery-units-into-ukraine-nato-says.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Ok. Now this is acknowledged officially.  Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian Army from Ukrainian territory: NATO knows it. What the hell are they planning to do about it ?!


Probably nothing. Its not their responsibility to assist Ukraine.


Title: The author has nothing to fear: he died some 100 years ago
Post by: ag on August 22, 2014, 04:37:51 PM
For those who understand Russian

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FLoKZQmJRk


Title: Re: It must have been just a minor childish prank, nothing serious
Post by: ag on August 22, 2014, 04:39:07 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/russia-moves-artillery-units-into-ukraine-nato-says.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Ok. Now this is acknowledged officially.  Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian Army from Ukrainian territory: NATO knows it. What the hell are they planning to do about it ?!


Probably nothing. Its not their responsibility to assist Ukraine.

I know. They are planning to wait till it is their job. Doesn't matter if it means extra millions of their citizens' lives taken.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 22, 2014, 07:26:39 PM
All the sympathy I had for Moscow's line of thought (mostly in the immediate aftermath of the Kiev revolution and when the Ukrainian far-right appeared stronger than it is now) has long dried up. This just cements it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on August 22, 2014, 08:36:05 PM
We really need to fortify the Baltics.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: © tweed on August 25, 2014, 01:19:12 AM
Russians held a bit of a counter-parade in the East


"Captured Ukrainian soldiers marched through streets of Donetsk"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n4S10oDo0s


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 25, 2014, 01:27:54 AM
It appears that following several days of artillery bombardment from the Russian territory, there is a major invasion going on substantially south of where the "rebel"-controlled area has been, in the direction of Telmanove - Novoazovsk (closer to the sea). The border station is overwhelmed and at least 4 tanks have entered FROM RUSSIA. Once again, there is no DNR-held territory immediately adjacent, the attack is  conducted from the territory of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION.

Anyways, I guess NATO is going to wait till the Russians are crossing the Danube.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 25, 2014, 01:44:09 AM
Ukrainians march to fight the imperialist aggressors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxFfWObjKSc


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 25, 2014, 04:01:46 AM
ag, I am making some effort but I still don't understand why you are so afraid of Russia. ;) Were you alive during the Cold War? Were you somehow involved?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 25, 2014, 07:59:41 AM
ag, I am making some effort but I still don't understand why you are so afraid of Russia. ;) Were you alive during the Cold War? Were you somehow involved?

Yes, I was alive :) Dreadfully scared as a kid that Americans would nuke my home :)

I am not afraid of Russia per se. I am afraid pf a country with nukes but without any checks or ballances.  Give Russia a reasonable set of institutions, and I would be ok - even with the same Putin elected. But at this point I am simply being aware of real dangers.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 25, 2014, 06:09:37 PM
Summary of the latest from the Russian blogs. Ukrainians destroyed a motorized unit (well inside Ukraine, of course). Found documents with names. Nearly simultaneously, some family members of Russian servicemen with the same names posted on social media the death notices. Within a day those were taken down and replaced with happy family notices ("my husband is alive, celebrating our daughter´s baptism and such). Some newsmen claimed to have talked with the "dead people", who were supposed to be happily at home. However, some local journalists in the area (it is the province of Pskov - the unit in question is the local paratroop division, and some of the soldiers are natives), based on earlier social media posts managed to show up at the funeral. Much of the division was present - and, yes, those are the names on the fresh graves.

Also, Putin has just awarded the Pskov Paratroop Division with a war-time decoration.

Not that anybody has had any doubts for a while, but, still... Poor relatives.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Nhoj on August 26, 2014, 01:49:27 PM
So yesterday the Ukrainians claimed to have captured Russian paratroopers and today the Russian MoD confirmed that they were indeed Russians. Naturally they claimed that they accidentally crossed the border. So either Russian paratroopers are idiots or Russia's excuses continue to get thinner.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald on August 26, 2014, 02:33:48 PM
So yesterday the Ukrainians claimed to have captured Russian paratroopers and today the Russian MoD confirmed that they were indeed Russians. Naturally they claimed that they accidentally crossed the border. So either Russian paratroopers are idiots or Russia's excuses continue to get thinner.
To be fair, the two aren't mutually exclusive.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 26, 2014, 03:59:55 PM
If we take Putin at his word, it's clear now that Russia is unable to control events on its side of its border with Ukraine.  Perhaps NATO should offer to send troops into Russia to help the situation be stabilized? ;)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 26, 2014, 06:18:56 PM
Seriously, it seems like a major Russian attack is under way. Ukrainian troops, according some reports, are facing major reverses, if not worse.  Clearly, they are giving some back - but they are facing what amounts to regular Russian units. Things are truly bad.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Hamster on August 26, 2014, 09:09:55 PM
Seriously, it seems like a major Russian attack is under way. Ukrainian troops, according some reports, are facing major reverses, if not worse.  Clearly, they are giving some back - but they are facing what amounts to regular Russian units. Things are truly bad.

All the info I'm seeing indicates several Ukrainian troop formations have been encircled by Russian/Separatist forces. There were also clashes along the southernmost point of the border by the Black Sea. Thousands of residents of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol have evacuated, fearing a Russian invasion.

Everybody in the west is expecting a hollywood invasion, a declare of war with tank brigades blowing through the board and conquering southeastern Ukraine in a week. Putin is much smarter than that. What we are seeing now is a slow motion invasion. The question is, what is Putin's end game. Does he just want to establish firm control over the Donbass region before coming to the negotiating table, or will we eventually see Russian paratroopers in Kiev?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 26, 2014, 09:11:57 PM
Seriously, it seems like a major Russian attack is under way. Ukrainian troops, according some reports, are facing major reverses, if not worse.  Clearly, they are giving some back - but they are facing what amounts to regular Russian units. Things are truly bad.

All the info I'm seeing indicates several Ukrainian troop formations have been encircles by Russian/Separatist forces. There were also clashes along the southernmost point of the border by the Black Sea. Thousands of residents of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol have evacuated, fearing a Russian invasion.


That is exactly what I am seeing.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 26, 2014, 09:16:48 PM

Everybody in the west is expecting a hollywood invasion, a declare of war with tank brigades blowing through the board and conquering southeastern Ukraine in a week. Putin is much smarter than that. What we are seeing now is a slow motion invasion. The question is, what is Putin's end game. Does he just want to establish firm control over the Donbass region before coming to the negotiating table, or will we eventually see Russian paratroopers in Kiev?

I believe, at this point it only depends on the strength of resistance. So far, at least, Ukrainians have been able to inflict what appears substantial casualties on the Russian troops - sufficiently serious that it has become pretty much necessary to semi-acknowledge that Russian soldiers are there and that they are dying (at this point it is no longer possible to deny - too many funerals going on near major Russian military bases).  Still, this appears to be not at all enough to stop Putin - the assault accelerates. The longer-term goal, of course, is Kiev and beyond - the question is how big the damage has to be for it to be redefined.

Of course, given what we know of Ukrainian mood and history, once the army gets demolished (which may well happen), a major partisan war will start. And that will, probably, go on for decades.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Hamster on August 26, 2014, 09:26:29 PM

Everybody in the west is expecting a hollywood invasion, a declare of war with tank brigades blowing through the board and conquering southeastern Ukraine in a week. Putin is much smarter than that. What we are seeing now is a slow motion invasion. The question is, what is Putin's end game. Does he just want to establish firm control over the Donbass region before coming to the negotiating table, or will we eventually see Russian paratroopers in Kiev?

I believe, at this point it only depends on the strength of resistance. So far, at least, Ukrainians have been able to inflict what appears substantial casualties on the Russian troops - sufficiently serious that it has become pretty much necessary to semi-acknowledge that Russian soldiers are there and that they are dying (at this point it is no longer possible to deny - too many funerals going on near major Russian military bases).  Still, this appears to be not at all enough to stop Putin - the assault accelerates. The longer-term goal, of course, is Kiev and beyond - the question is how big the damage has to be for it to be redefined.

Of course, given what we know of Ukrainian mood and history, once the army gets demolished (which may well happen), a major partisan war will start. And that will, probably, go on for decades.

I have to think trying to take all of Ukraine now would blow back on Russia in a major way. In that case, they would be responsible for the financial mess Ukraine is in, they would bear the cost of the partisan war, and they would have expended a massive amount of men, money, and material to defeat a Ukrainian army which looks to be half-way competent.

The smarter route, IMO, would be to take and hold Donbass and demand its independence at the negotiating table, along with economic concessions. Maybe Ukraine takes the deal, maybe they leave the Donbass as a frozen conflict zone. Wait a few years and the IMF will start applying the screws to Ukraine; they'll want their money back no matter what. The Ukrainian people will snarl, maybe a government will fall, and Putin will step in with another offer. Maybe they take it this time, maybe they reject it and another Separatist republic pops up, situated between Crimea and Donbass.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 26, 2014, 09:30:29 PM
1. When I say they want Kiev,  I do not mean they want to be responsible for Kiev. A compliant impoverished regime would be enough.

2. In order to achieve that they want to destabilize the country as much as possible. As long as people keep dying in Ukraine that is good, as far as Putin is concerned.

3. Geographically, they need not so much Kiev (or Donbass, for that matter - it is worthless), but the corridor to Crimea and Transnistria. Which, of course, means pretty much all of the coast. If they could get it for free, they would. The question is, what is the maximal price they are willing to pay.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on August 27, 2014, 12:08:33 PM
NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine — Tanks, artillery and infantry have crossed from Russia into an unbreached part of eastern Ukraine in recent days, attacking Ukrainian forces and causing panic and wholesale retreat not only in this small border town but a wide swath of territory, in what Ukrainian and Western military officials are calling a stealth invasion.

The attacks outside this city and in an area to the north essentially have opened a new, third front in the war in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Russian separatists, along with the fighting outside the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Exhausted, filthy and dismayed, Ukrainian soldiers staggering out of Novoazovsk for safer territory said Tuesday that the forces coming from Russia had treated them like cannon fodder. As they spoke, tank shells whistled in from the east and exploded nearby.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-novoazovsk-crimea.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

When was the last time there was a territorial land grab in Europe from one state to another (as opposed to civil war within a pre-established state, e.g. Yugoslavia?)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 27, 2014, 12:14:45 PM
George Shultz and William Perry had a good piece in the Journal today (http://online.wsj.com/articles/william-j-perry-and-george-p-shultz-helping-ukraine-is-a-u-s-imperative-1409094947); I completely forgot about that thing called the "Budapest Memorandum"... ugh.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 27, 2014, 12:17:36 PM
When was the last time there was a territorial land grab in Europe from one state to another (as opposed to civil war within a pre-established state, e.g. Yugoslavia?)
Russia in Georgia in 2008, if you consider establishing puppet states as a territorial land grab. Otherwise WWII.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on August 27, 2014, 01:13:50 PM
Not a good turn.  Putin is going to keep pushing until somebody bigger than the Ukraine stands up to him.  Do we have the balls?  Do we even care?  Granted, this is much more of a European problem than an American problem, it's still a problem.  A problem that we shouldn't let stand.  We shouldn't have let 8/8 stand either.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Pingvin on August 28, 2014, 07:47:07 AM
Poroshenko has confirmed the entry of Russian troops.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 28, 2014, 11:31:45 AM
Poroshenko has confirmed the entry of Russian troops.

So has NATO. So, pretty much,  have the "rebels". At this point, this is about as well-established as anything could be well-established.

And? What are you planning to do, Mr. Chamberlain? And you, M. Daladier?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on August 28, 2014, 01:42:11 PM
This is very disconcerting to say the very least. What do you think we should do about it? 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 28, 2014, 02:51:04 PM
Connecting Russia to Crimea and even further to Transnitria would definitely be a big success for Russia. I don't know whether that's the goal or whether they just wanted to re-balance the war that was being lost by the rebels.

This is very disconcerting to say the very least. What do you think we should do about it? 
Personally, I think we should push both sides to agree on a referendum organized by third-parties in the disputed areas (at least Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) on whether they want or not to get more autonomy from Kiev.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 28, 2014, 03:07:58 PM
This is very disconcerting to say the very least. What do you think we should do about it? 

Major across the board sanctions against Russia and active economic and military aid for the Ukrainian government. Sanctions should include very strict restrictions on all financial transactions with Russia (basically, each such transaction should be authorized individually); ban on all new investment there;  banning every airline that flies to Crimea from the European and American airspace, as well as stopping all regular flights from airports that receive flights from Crimea; prohibition on any ship entering any Crimea port from using European/American ports.  Also, I would suggest major military maneuvers all around the Russian frontiers - from the Northern Territories in the East to the Kola peninsula in the west. Supporting Lituania and Poland in cutting rail and road links to Kaliningrad. Recalling ambassadors, expelling Russian ambassadors and closing Russian consulates outside capital cities. Approaching China promising full support if it chooses to make any gains at Russian expense. Etc., etc., etc. There are many things that could be done.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on August 28, 2014, 03:18:57 PM
This is very disconcerting to say the very least. What do you think we should do about it?  

Major across the board sanctions against Russia and active economic and military aid for the Ukrainian government. Sanctions should include very strict restrictions on all financial transactions with Russia (basically, each such transaction should be authorized individually); ban on all new investment there;  banning every airline that flies to Crimea from the European and American airspace, as well as stopping all regular flights from airports that receive flights from Crimea; prohibition on any ship entering any Crimea port from using European/American ports.  Also, I would suggest major military maneuvers all around the Russian frontiers - from the Northern Territories in the East to the Kola peninsula in the west. Supporting Lituania and Poland in cutting rail and road links to Kaliningrad. Recalling ambassadors, expelling Russian ambassadors and closing Russian consulates outside capital cities. Approaching China promising full support if it chooses to make any gains at Russian expense. Etc., etc., etc. There are many things that could be done.

I think those are all good ideas. Do they necessarily need to be done in any timeframe or order? It would be great to give time for companies to come up with contingencies. We shouldn't be afraid of Russia...at all but we want to get as many people on board with us so that our isolation of them can be as efficient and effective as possible.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 28, 2014, 04:07:38 PM
The troops really keep complaining about their poor equipment, delivering weapons would make a big difference. There are other steps in between though, I don't know if we will eventually reach that stage or not.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 28, 2014, 05:03:43 PM
The troops really keep complaining about their poor equipment, delivering weapons would make a big difference. There are other steps in between though, I don't know if we will eventually reach that stage or not.

Start with economically blockading Crimea. Aeroflot chooses to fly there - ban it from Europe, recall the leased planes, etc. Sheremetyevo Airport chooses to accept planes from Simferopol - stop accepting planes from Sheremeytevo. A bank opened an ATM there - put it on the sanctions list. Also, after Russia introduced its "anti-sanctions" against Western food, it made exceptions for things it cannot live without - take that list and make it stick. Finally, the diplomatic sanctions should be immediate: ambassadors should be recalled for consultations, Russian ambassadors expelled, Russian consulates closed. Broad financial sanctions can still wait - they should be the threat. Also, I would take a couple very well-known oligarchs who tend to spend a lot of time abroad and put them on the list personally - whatever it does to FC Chelsea and the like.

And, BTW, though it is outside any government's sphere of action, there is something that would sting a lot. Russian Football Union has allowed Crimean teams into the championship. They were very nervous about it - new clubs were formed, rather than Ukrainian accepted, and the clubs were registered outside Crimea. But they are named for Crimean towns and play in Crimea. I am pretty sure, this is grounds for kicking Russia out of the UEFA. This should be done.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 28, 2014, 06:22:32 PM
These are all possible options, but before deciding about the means we need to set the goals.

For example, I think many in Europe are fine with Crimea going back to Russia. It could have happened in better ways, but also in much worse ways, so there is a kind of relief that it happened in a "not so bad" way. So I don't think we will see any decisive European sanctions about Crimea, just a few symbolic things.

A kind of decentralization of Ukraine with more autonomy for the East would also probably be seen as a positive outcome, and apparently Merkel is pushing Poroshenko in this direction.

There are on the other hand things that are unacceptable from a European point of view, and a link between Crimea and mainland Russia is one of them, so let's see if Putin is trying to get that.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 28, 2014, 06:33:06 PM
These are all possible options, but before deciding about the means we need to set the goals.

For example, I think many in Europe are fine with Crimea going back to Russia. It could have happened in better ways, but also in much worse ways, so there is a kind of relief that it happened in a "not so bad" way. So I don't think we will see any decisive European sanctions about Crimea, just a few symbolic things.

A kind of decentralization of Ukraine with more autonomy for the East would also probably be seen as a positive outcome, and apparently Merkel is pushing Poroshenko in this direction.

There are on the other hand things that are unacceptable from a European point of view, and a link between Crimea and mainland Russia is one of them, so let's see if Putin is trying to get that.

Under the circumstances, giving Russia the Crimea or giving Russia any say in Ukrainian affairs will lead to a general European war as inexorably as giving up completely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudetenland#Sudeten_Crisis


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 28, 2014, 08:04:24 PM
Let's say that Crimea held a legitimate referendum (I'm definitely not under the impression that the one in March was fair) and chose to stay in Russia with, say, 60% of the vote. What would you support then, ag?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 28, 2014, 08:52:41 PM
Let's say that Crimea held a legitimate referendum (I'm definitely not under the impression that the one in March was fair) and chose to stay in Russia with, say, 60% of the vote. What would you support then, ag?

No legitimate referendum in Crimea is now possible, at least in short term. As far as I am concerned, a referendum would only be legitimate if the Jan 1, 2014 status quo is restored first - that is, Russia fully withdraws. Then, an election - under Ukrainian law - should be held to elect the authorities of the Crimean Autonomous Republic. These authorities would have to negotiate with the national government the conduct and the timetable for such a referendum (Scotland- or Quebec-style) - taking into account the opinion of the indigenous Tartar population. All this time the Russian government should be credibly committed to non-interference, irrespective of the vote result. I do not see any of that happening any time soon.

The fact is, if on Jan 1, 2014 such a referendum were held, it would have, probably, lost in Crimea proper (would have won in Sevastopol - especially if the resident Russians were to have been allowed a vote). Parties advocating switch to Russia routinely got miniscule percentages in actual voting there. Russian invasion dramatically changed the situation, of course. Currently many people would simply be afraid of going back to Ukraine, which they have betrayed. But allowing the annexation to stand would reward an invasion. And that cannot be accepted.

To sum up, I would not mind Crimea joining Russia some time in the future, if its population so desires - but only after Russia first unconditionally capitulates. This Russian regime cannot be allowed to enjoy any conquest.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 28, 2014, 10:19:26 PM
My solution, for the record:

Place Crimea under temporary UN administration and hold a three-way referendum between Russia, Ukraine, and independence. One of these three options has to get over 50% to win outright.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 29, 2014, 12:04:30 AM
My solution, for the record:

Place Crimea under temporary UN administration and hold a three-way referendum between Russia, Ukraine, and independence. One of these three options has to get over 50% to win outright.

Well, this can only happen after Russia is defeated.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on August 29, 2014, 03:44:58 AM
The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on August 29, 2014, 04:04:27 AM
Even Russians seem to now know that Russia attacked the Ukraine.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28965597


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 29, 2014, 05:05:13 AM
The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on August 29, 2014, 05:42:20 AM
France continues to build warships for Russia, ExxonMobil starts drilling for oil in Sibiria, and the next FIFA World Cup is still going to take place in Russia.

It may be that Russia invaded Ukraine. On the other hand, there's still a whole lot of money to be made in Russia. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Velasco on August 29, 2014, 09:06:42 AM
Even Russians seem to now know that Russia attacked the Ukraine.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28965597


Quote
An article in Kiev's Novaya Gazeta compares President Putin to Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin and criticises Moscow for "keeping silent" about Russian soldiers allegedly killed in Ukraine.

"Judging by the reaction of the Russian authorities, they want to disown their POWs. Stalin did not recognize his POWs, he treated them as traitors. His successors continue his tradition," the paper writes.

There is a well known Novaya Gazeta in Moscow, a liberal opposition paper where Anna Politkovskaya wrote her reports on the Second Chechen War (btw, this conflict appears to be another 'dirty war'). Is there a homonymous paper in Kiev?  Any relation with the one in Moscow?

From Russia's Novaya Gazeta:

Quote
Accounts of the conflict in eastern Ukraine differ so wildly that it is often difficult to see through the propaganda and get to the truth. Authorities in Kiev suggest that there are no angry or unhappy locals in eastern Ukraine, merely “Russian terrorists”. In Moscow, the Kremlin and foreign ministry insist that brave residents are merely standing up for their rights against Ukrainian “fascism”.

The reality, as so often, lies between these two extremes. While there are many locals fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, there are also many “volunteers” who have come from Russia. How these people arrived, what motivates them, and whether they have any official Russian backing has largely remained a mystery.

But in tracking down the widow of one Russian man who died during the fighting at Donetsk airport, Elena Kostyuchenko sheds some light onto the murky structures organising the transfer of fighters to Ukraine. She also paints a moving portrait of loss and of the frustration of dealing with Russian officialdom apparently so keen to cover up all traces of those fighting across the border

http://en.novayagazeta.ru/


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on August 29, 2014, 12:46:26 PM
The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.
Since you like to refer to the Munich agreements, I want to remind you that it was a failure from the UK and France to respect a military agreement with Czechoslovakia.
In the case of Crimea, it's the US and the UK who have an agreement to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, and who are failing to respect it. So go first, we'll follow (maybe ;)).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 29, 2014, 02:41:45 PM
The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.
Since you like to refer to the Munich agreements, I want to remind you that it was a failure from the UK and France to respect a military agreement with Czechoslovakia.
In the case of Crimea, it's the US and the UK who have an agreement to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, and who are failing to respect it. So go first, we'll follow (maybe ;)).

I fully agree. But I am Mexican, not American. BTW, it was Mexico that was the only country to protest against the Anschluss in the League of Nations.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on August 29, 2014, 02:44:33 PM
France continues to build warships for Russia, ExxonMobil starts drilling for oil in Sibiria, and the next FIFA World Cup is still going to take place in Russia.

It may be that Russia invaded Ukraine. On the other hand, there's still a whole lot of money to be made in Russia. :P

Yes and no. I was told that by late last fall pretty much no new investment projects in Russia were being started. Yes, Russia has a humongous fuel bonanza, but only very large firms can operate at the scale that both pays the cost of doing business there and, at least partially, protects them from expropriation. Yes, there is a lot of money there - but getting is is dangerous not only for your morals, but also for your life.

BTW, I would certainly move the World Cup.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Zanas on August 29, 2014, 07:27:17 PM

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.
My point exactly. Probably because they are among the vilest and most coward people on this planet, at least on this continent. (French socialists, not French people at large) (well, one can wonder...) (no, I guess not) (surely there's some other people that qualifies) (no ?) (anybody ?)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on August 30, 2014, 05:18:54 AM
The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.
Since you like to refer to the Munich agreements, I want to remind you that it was a failure from the UK and France to respect a military agreement with Czechoslovakia.
In the case of Crimea, it's the US and the UK who have an agreement to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, and who are failing to respect it. So go first, we'll follow (maybe ;)).

I fully agree. But I am Mexican, not American. BTW, it was Mexico that was the only country to protest against the Anschluss in the League of Nations.

Not to mention the Fascist occupation of Ethiopia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 02, 2014, 04:54:58 AM
The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.
Since you like to refer to the Munich agreements, I want to remind you that it was a failure from the UK and France to respect a military agreement with Czechoslovakia.
In the case of Crimea, it's the US and the UK who have an agreement to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, and who are failing to respect it. So go first, we'll follow (maybe ;)).

I fully agree. But I am Mexican, not American. BTW, it was Mexico that was the only country to protest against the Anschluss in the League of Nations.

You'd think Peru would have been an early enemy of Germany and Austria teaming up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru_4%E2%80%932_Austria_(1936_Summer_Olympics_association_football)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Gustaf on September 02, 2014, 05:23:02 AM
So, Barroso says Putin told him "I can take Kiev in 2 weeks if I want to". WTF.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on September 02, 2014, 06:35:24 AM
He's right. We have all seen how bad is the Ukrainian army. Even the volunteer battalions fighting with kalashnikov are better. So he can. The only question is whether he wants.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 02, 2014, 07:22:03 AM
He's right. We have all seen how bad is the Ukrainian army. Even the volunteer battalions fighting with kalashnikov are better. So he can. The only question is whether he wants.

Ukrainian army would not hold. But it would spark a major partisan resistance.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on September 02, 2014, 08:58:22 AM
One interview-like question-

Where does Putin see Russia in 2024? What does he want the map to look like?

Does he just want Southeastern Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Georgia? Does he want more? Some people said he wants to reannex the Baltics and Kazakhstan.

Basically, that Putin wants to rebuild Russia as a fascist Slavic Orthodox state.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MATTROSE94 on September 02, 2014, 09:07:34 AM
One interview-like question-

Where does Putin see Russia in 2024? What does he want the map to look like?
I am probably partially wrong in my analysis, but I would assume that Putin would like to see Russia absorb all of Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia and Poland over the next decade or so.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on September 02, 2014, 10:25:41 AM
One interview-like question-

Where does Putin see Russia in 2024? What does he want the map to look like?
I am probably partially wrong in my analysis, but I would assume that Putin would like to see Russia absorb all of Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia and Poland over the next decade or so.

I don't think the Russians could ever annex/clientize Poland without a major war. Replace Estonia and Poland with Belarus and Kazakhstan (The Kazakhs being puppetized, not annexed).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on September 02, 2014, 11:30:59 AM
I think Putin would dream to keep the USSR influence, just without communism. He does not need to annex these countries, just having them as vassal states would be enough.

So:

Armenia   
Azerbaijan   
Belarus   
Estonia   
Georgia   
Kazakhstan   
Kyrgyzstan   
Latvia   
Lithuania   
Moldova   
Tajikistan   
Turkmenistan   
Ukraine   
Uzbekistan   

Being in the NATO and the EU, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are lost for good, they are untouchable. All the rest is still somehow keepable, and these countries are at different degrees under Russian influence. Some are trying to break free (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine...), some are still real russian vassal states (Belarus for example).

What many fail to take into account is that the russian sphere of influence has been continuously decreasing for more than 20 years, and that all of Putin wars are about saving what can be saved. The consequence is that we should allow him to do so instead of risking a full scale war for territories that will anyway drift away from Russia in 10 years.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on September 02, 2014, 11:49:03 AM
Maybe his goal is to revive the USSR minus the Baltic states into a fascist version of something between the CSA and EU, in terms of cohesion?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on September 02, 2014, 12:26:12 PM
I don't think there is any ideology behind it. Russia is trying to preserve its sphere of influence, and to be fair everyone does the same.

The main problem is that while Western countries now more or less accept the right to self-determination, Russia is still ready to go at war to keep what it sees as "its playground". France was there 50 years ago with its colonies.

(An analogy would be that Westerners are now trying to find partners by being attractive, while unattractive Russia still uses rape.)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on September 02, 2014, 03:29:28 PM
I don't think there is any ideology behind it. Russia is trying to preserve its sphere of influence, and to be fair everyone does the same.

The main problem is that while Western countries now more or less accept the right to self-determination, Russia is still ready to go at war to keep what it sees as "its playground". France was there 50 years ago with its colonies.

(An analogy would be that Westerners are now trying to find partners by being attractive, while unattractive Russia still uses rape.)

In your mind Putin is more like Borat than Hitler?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 02, 2014, 06:50:21 PM
I don't think there is any ideology behind it. Russia is trying to preserve its sphere of influence, and to be fair everyone does the same.

The main problem is that while Western countries now more or less accept the right to self-determination, Russia is still ready to go at war to keep what it sees as "its playground". France was there 50 years ago with its colonies.

(An analogy would be that Westerners are now trying to find partners by being attractive, while unattractive Russia still uses rape.)

In your mind Putin is more like Borat than Hitler?

Well, he is what Borat was the caricature of.

Seriously, Putin is decent at tactics. I am not sure he has a full strategy, a set of well-defined objectives, or anything of the sort. He definitely wants to get as much as possible - as much as the West would give him. How much? I am not even sure he himself knows at this point.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on September 02, 2014, 09:11:15 PM
The WSJ journal says only "modest" sanctions are being considered:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/european-union-to-decide-on-russia-sanctions-by-friday-1409654982

While Russia claims that the Czechs object to even that:

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140903/192578268/Czech-Republic-Disagrees-With-New-EU-Sanctions-Against-Russia.html

Meanwhile in the U.S., Gazprom bank has hired Trent Lott and John Breaux to lobby for previously imposed sanctions to be lifted:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/gazprom-bank-hire-senator-trent-lott-john-breaux-lobby-110522.html?hp=r5


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 02, 2014, 09:27:52 PM
The WSJ journal says only "modest" sanctions are being considered:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/european-union-to-decide-on-russia-sanctions-by-friday-1409654982

While Russia claims that the Czechs object to even that:

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140903/192578268/Czech-Republic-Disagrees-With-New-EU-Sanctions-Against-Russia.html

Meanwhile in the U.S., Gazprom bank has hired Trent Lott and John Breaux to lobby for previously imposed sanctions to be lifted:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/gazprom-bank-hire-senator-trent-lott-john-breaux-lobby-110522.html?hp=r5

Lott and Breaux prove yet again that they are HPs.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 03, 2014, 11:55:22 AM
Today's Scandinavia and the World is somewhat humorous, tho not really accurate since Russia isn't admitting its obvious involvement.  I think I've realized why Putin bothers with such lies.  It's been said before in this thread that to solve this situation we need to find some way to allow Putin to save face.  Putin's lies are his effort to allow the West to save face.  We merely need accept the lies and then it is possible for us to accept the result.  Problem is, while it has worked before, the act has grown stale.  You know the old saying, "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me;" well Putin's trying to fool at least a third time.  Sad thing is, if he'd just waited a few years as had with Georgia, and waited until 2018 or so to take Novorossiya instead of trying to take it right after taking Ukraine, he might have gotten the West to swallow the lie.() (http://satwcomic.com/surprise-party)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on September 03, 2014, 05:22:23 PM
US troops head to Ukraine. (http://thehill.com/policy/defense/216542-us-ground-troops-to-train-in-ukraine)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2014, 08:57:50 AM
The Austrian newspaper "Standard" says that something like a "permanent peace/ceasefire deal" has been agreed on, effective tomorrow.

Both Poroshenko and the rebels have agreed.

http://derstandard.at


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 04, 2014, 10:40:01 AM
The Austrian newspaper "Standard" says that something like a "permanent peace/ceasefire deal" has been agreed on, effective tomorrow.

Both Poroshenko and the rebels have agreed.

http://derstandard.at

It will preserve peace for our time. That is, if we are very lucky, for around 12 months.

Ukrainians do not have a choice: they are left naked. It is the rest of us I am wondering about.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 04, 2014, 08:00:09 PM
US troops head to Ukraine. (http://thehill.com/policy/defense/216542-us-ground-troops-to-train-in-ukraine)

Long overdue.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 04, 2014, 08:44:25 PM
"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Person Man on September 04, 2014, 09:02:07 PM
US troops head to Ukraine. (http://thehill.com/policy/defense/216542-us-ground-troops-to-train-in-ukraine)

Long overdue.

Mmm  hmmm...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 04, 2014, 09:18:23 PM
"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

This is new.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 04, 2014, 09:44:49 PM
"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

This is new.

World War I started due to competition between the British and German markets. World War III will start when the will of Western markets on one side and Sino-Russian markets on the other to dominate takes over the will to mutually trade, even if for a single impulsive moment.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 04, 2014, 10:02:56 PM
Ah, so I see you've fully embraced the "wars are fought for the sake of parasitical Capital" theory of conflict.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on September 04, 2014, 10:04:08 PM
"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

This is new.

World War I started due to competition between the British and German markets. World War III will start when the will of Western markets on one side and Sino-Russian markets on the other to dominate takes over the will to mutually trade, even if for a single impulsive moment.
"Markets" don't compete. Market actors compete. Feel free to add to the list, but the only major market actors I can think that would want to end the US-China trade relationship would be American manufacturers and labor unions. So, are you saying manufacturers and labor unions will start WWIII? If so, how?

No doubt China wants to take down the US, but they have no reason to do so militarily when they can do so economically. Buying up Treasuries and promoting de-dollarization via direct bilateral trade and currency swap agreements (you mention the gas deals with Russia) are perfectly good strategies to end USD monetary hegemony and bring the US to its knees via debt and inflation.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on September 04, 2014, 10:10:31 PM
Ah, so I see you've fully embraced the "wars are fought for the sake of parasitical Capital" theory of conflict.
Well, many conflicts are fought at least in part to benefit private interests. Most American wars have been. But, it's generally specific interest groups pushing for war to maximize their profits, not "the market" making a decision as if it is were some monolithic entity with some sort of collective will.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 04, 2014, 10:47:30 PM
Manufacturers, defense contractors, and fossil fuel magnates. That's all you need.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: njwes on September 04, 2014, 10:51:37 PM
Well, many conflicts are fought at least in part to benefit private interests. Most American wars have been. But, it's generally specific interest groups pushing for war to maximize their profits, not "the market" making a decision as if it is were some monolithic entity with some sort of collective will.

I know this has gone off topic but I'm genuinely curious, if you feel that way which wars do you think haven't been fought to benefit private interests? It seems to me that other than the First Gulf War, all of the US's 20th-century wars (and no, I'm not including the smaller "Savage Wars of Peace") were fought with a genuine strategic interest in mind and the belief that waging them was necessary to the security of the US as a whole.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Deus Naturae on September 04, 2014, 11:08:37 PM
Manufacturers, defense contractors, and fossil fuel magnates. That's all you need.
I'm not seeing how the scheme is supposed to work. Manufacturing lobbyists will convince Congress to enact tariffs against Chinese products and then...? It would definitely increase tensions but it's not going to provoke WWIII. Where would it be fought? China is going to invade the US?

Plus, even if such a tariff policy was enacted (I'm sure the manufacturing lobby has been trying to push it for years) it would probably we repealed pretty quickly as it would be terrible for American consumers and tons of other businesses. Sorry, but your theory just isn't plausible (unless I'm misunderstanding you and it has nothing to do with tariffs). The best chance of WWIII breaking out would be if the US tried to invade Iran, which might happen in the future but not because of Ukraine. Claiming that Ukraine will lead to WWIII because gas companies want deposits in Ukraine is just as dumb as Ag's paranoia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 04, 2014, 11:12:04 PM
"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

This is called not "economic backing" but "economic exploitation". There is a reason the details of those deals were never published fully: rumors are they are horrid for Russia. To begin with, Russia is supposed to build - essentially, on its own - the new pipelines that will only have one possible customer: China. In fact, this pretty much locks those gas fields into China - these are newly developed fields, and they will not have any other easy outlet. China, in contrast, apparently, is pretty much supposed to do nothing, except buy gas - it is not even clear how iron-clad is the Chinese promise to buy anything. This is a textbook recipe for a hold-up problem: once Russians build those pipelines, Chinese can insist on renegotiating the price - at that point, Russia would be better off selling very cheaply than not selling at all.  So, China will get very cheap energy, which it will use to manufacture goods for Western consumption. Everybody wins - except for Russia.

No Russian government, if it were not desperate to show that it still has "friends", would have signed this. In fact, the agreements were not ready before Putin came to China - it was he who was both desperate to sign and able to do this without a fear of being fired. The Chinese got all they wanted - and more. And it does not at all seem they have promised much in exchange - China has been, at best, silent on the Ukrainian business. Actually, it gains one more thing from it: the Stans. Kazakhs are getting pretty damn scared of the Russians, and guess whom they are going to turn to.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 04, 2014, 11:18:26 PM
"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

This is new.

World War I started due to competition between the British and German markets. World War III will start when the will of Western markets on one side and Sino-Russian markets on the other to dominate takes over the will to mutually trade, even if for a single impulsive moment.

China trades a lot more with the West, then with Russia. Apparently, it trades more with Brazil than with Russia. Its sales to Russia are puny by comparison with those to the West. It only needs Russia for energy - and this crisis is exactly what it needs to get that energy cheaply: so that it can continue selling things cheaply to the West. Do not expect China fight on the Russian side. If anything, if things get really rotten for the Russians in Europe, China might try to get its own pound of flesh in the Far East. If I were Chinese I would really not mind a port on the Sea of Japan - Haishenwai would be really nice :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 04, 2014, 11:19:35 PM
Manufacturers, defense contractors, and fossil fuel magnates. That's all you need.

And try thinking, what those manufacturers want - both in China and in the US.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 04, 2014, 11:21:47 PM
Ah, so I see you've fully embraced the "wars are fought for the sake of parasitical Capital" theory of conflict.

But he is still not very good on figuring out what the interests of that Capital are :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 04, 2014, 11:21:53 PM
Putin is probably okay with being China's economic client, in that case. Russo-Chinese trade will surely increase thanks to the EU/American sanctions. China is diplomatically neutral on Ukraine because they ultimately don't care about it, but also because Russia makes a nice attack dog, because it brings the Kazakhs and Uzbeks more into Beijing's sphere, and because Russia and China both have disputes with Japan.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 04, 2014, 11:29:23 PM
Putin is probably okay with being China's economic client, in that case. Russo-Chinese trade will surely increase thanks to the EU/American sanctions. China is diplomatically neutral on Ukraine because they ultimately don't care about it, but also because Russia makes a nice attack dog, because it brings the Kazakhs and Uzbeks more into Beijing's sphere, and because Russia and China both have disputes with Japan.

So, this is it: China will not help Russia. This crisis is great for China - the longer it lasts, the more likely those pipelines will get built and that China will get oil very, very cheaply forever - that is the power of holdup. And the worse things go for Russia, the more goodies China will get from it in exchange for very little. So, it is in the interest of China to have Russia screwed in Ukraine. They have no reason to support Russia there at all.

And, in fact, at present, at least, Europeans would much prefer the very cheap oil to go to China  - a) Russia is getting screwed and b) the gas does get to the international markets and fuels the world economy. Win-win!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 04, 2014, 11:39:20 PM
Putin is probably okay with being China's economic client, in that case. Russo-Chinese trade will surely increase thanks to the EU/American sanctions. China is diplomatically neutral on Ukraine because they ultimately don't care about it, but also because Russia makes a nice attack dog, because it brings the Kazakhs and Uzbeks more into Beijing's sphere, and because Russia and China both have disputes with Japan.

From where do your insights derive, oh sage? The collected faculty of my university who have long studied such things have not made pointed observations as this. Share with us the source of your powers of prognostication!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 04, 2014, 11:45:12 PM
Putin is probably okay with being China's economic client, in that case. Russo-Chinese trade will surely increase thanks to the EU/American sanctions. China is diplomatically neutral on Ukraine because they ultimately don't care about it, but also because Russia makes a nice attack dog, because it brings the Kazakhs and Uzbeks more into Beijing's sphere, and because Russia and China both have disputes with Japan.

And as for trade... Russian GDP is comparatively minuscule. However much Russo-Chinese trade grows, it will not come close to US-Chinese or EU-Chinese. For the Chinese Russia is simply a source of cheap resources - like Venezuela or any number of African countries, just closer. And now it is a captive source: that is (from the Chinese standpoint) really great :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on September 05, 2014, 12:17:47 AM
No doubt China wants to take down the US, but they have no reason to do so militarily when they can do so economically. Buying up Treasuries and promoting de-dollarization via direct bilateral trade and currency swap agreements (you mention the gas deals with Russia) are perfectly good strategies to end USD monetary hegemony and bring the US to its knees via debt and inflation.

This is absurd, China doesn't want to "take down" the U.S., as the U.S. is one of its biggest markets. If the U.S. went down, the Treasury bonds China owns and the trillions of China's dollar reserves would become worthless. China is just like any other country, it wants to do what is best for itself. If it thinks the U.S. is going to stand in the way, then yes it is going to disagree with the U.S., but it has no intrinsic hatred of the U.S. A bilateral currency swap agreement literally just means that if China trades with South Korea, they exchange Chinese currency with South Korean currency. Why must they use dollars if the U.S. is not involved? All it does is increase the costs needlessly. Its not some conspiracy against the dollar. When the U.S. is involved in the trade, dollars will still be used.

Quote
To begin with, Russia is supposed to build - essentially, on its own - the new pipelines that will only have one possible customer: China.

Actually there is some talk of Russia shipping gas to India via pipelines and since Pakistan would charge extortionist prices for crossing its territory Russia could, in the long term, ship gas to India (and all of Southeast Asia for that matter) via China. This would open up a market with over 3 billion people to Russia's gas, nearly half the world's population. It is very good strategic deepening for Russia's energy options.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 05, 2014, 08:13:11 AM


Actually there is some talk of Russia shipping gas to India via pipelines and since Pakistan would charge extortionist prices for crossing its territory Russia could, in the long term, ship gas to India (and all of Southeast Asia for that matter) via China. This would open up a market with over 3 billion people to Russia's gas, nearly half the world's population. It is very good strategic deepening for Russia's energy options.

Well, and what would make you think that China would abstain from extracting the full surplus in exchange for transit in that case? Does Russia have any alternatives?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 05, 2014, 08:13:46 AM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 05, 2014, 09:07:34 AM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I struggle to see this from what I have been reading. How have you come to that conclusion? How expansive is the ceasefire? Does it pertain only to DPR and LPR forces in Ukraine, or anyone coming from anywhere (i.e. Russia) to fight the Ukrainian government? If it is the former I imagine that this would give Ukraine the freedom to retaliate against any incursions into its territory from Russia.

What is the situation on the border as of now? The Ukrainians should certainly try to get full control of the border (perhaps to prevent "ultranationalist militias from conducting attacks from Ukraine into Russia" or some sort of benign motivation. They should certainly step up (with NATO assistance) surveillance of the border; it was only through sheer luck that a reporter from the Guardian stumbled upon an armored convoy moving across the border into Russia a few weeks ago. Certainly there should be more rigorous observation.

But if Ukraine can effectively monitor the border (and preferably control it) it would have complete latitude to detect and retaliate against any incursion by "militants/volunteers/partisans" from Russia into the Ukraine... as long as Putin continues to hold the line that there are no Russian troops anywhere in the Ukraine (as he defines it- sans the Crimea). And certainly NATO could do its part to help Ukraine "secure the border", as people like to say.

It boils down a great deal to semantics, actually. In Russia the government in Kiev is presented as an illegal self-proclaimed "junta" (despite the fact it is an elected civilian administration) whose actions therefore are, at the very least, no more or less legitimate than those of the self proclaimed "People's Republics" in the Donbas.

And it of course it goes without saying that the "Self-Defence Forces" of these self proclaimed states are fighting agents of the "fascists in Kiev", or better yet, fighting actual "neo-Nazi pro-Kiev Self-Defence Forces", who are no less legitimate than the "Self-Defence Forces" of the self-proclaimed states, on top of being neo-Nazis.

But Putin said he would "respect" the results of the election (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/05/26/u-s-lauds-ukraine-election-amid-hopes-for-easing-standoff/), so he has at least conceded, technically speaking, that the "People's Republics" are legal fictions. Which means that Ukraine has every right to control its border with Russia.

So what I would think should be done here- again, I am making assumptions as to the details of the agreement- is that Ukraine should quickly move to monitor its border with Russia, at least far more thoroughly than it has before, and, where possible, physically secure it so to stem the flow of troops and arms into the the hands of the separatist militias. If the agreement allows for the separatists to control border posts with Russia then it would be completely useless.

A peacekeeping force of some sort (NATO? EU? OSCE?) should be authorised to "maintain the ceasefire" and, again, contain the separatist militias and block reinforcements from Russia. Ukraine should meanwhile feel free to fully retaliate against the "militants/volunteers/partisans" from Russia (who Putin continues to maintain are not at all Russian soldiers, which would mean they are actually breaking Russian law), destroy arms shipments, and arrest and try all of the "volunteers" for illegal immigration, weapons smuggling, things like that. In effect they should play along with the Russian charade, as opposed to going and using captured "volunteers" (who are of course Russian soldiers) as proof of Russian intervention. In effect, Ukraine should act as if this was a completely internal affair- denying Russia excuses to get involved without openly intervening.

I haven't seen the details of the agreement, however.  So for all I know this might not be possible.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 05, 2014, 02:33:59 PM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

This is no Munich Agreement.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 05, 2014, 09:21:43 PM
It is not the ceasefire, which is the problem. It is that Ukraine has been pretty much abandoned. There is no meaningful support - not even the real sanctions on Russia. That IS the problem.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 05, 2014, 09:28:45 PM

I struggle to see this from what I have been reading. How have you come to that conclusion? How expansive is the ceasefire? Does it pertain only to DPR and LPR forces in Ukraine, or anyone coming from anywhere (i.e. Russia) to fight the Ukrainian government? If it is the former I imagine that this would give Ukraine the freedom to retaliate against any incursions into its territory from Russia.

What is the situation on the border as of now? The Ukrainians should certainly try to get full control of the border (perhaps to prevent "ultranationalist militias from conducting attacks from Ukraine into Russia" or some sort of benign motivation. They should certainly step up (with NATO assistance) surveillance of the border; it was only through sheer luck that a reporter from the Guardian stumbled upon an armored convoy moving across the border into Russia a few weeks ago. Certainly there should be more rigorous observation.

But if Ukraine can effectively monitor the border (and preferably control it) it would have complete latitude to detect and retaliate against any incursion by "militants/volunteers/partisans" from Russia into the Ukraine... as long as Putin continues to hold the line that there are no Russian troops anywhere in the

I think you badly misunderstand the situation. The Russians are in full control of several hundred kilometers of the border. In those areas there are no Ukrainian troops or guards not only on the border, but anywhere near the border - they all have either fled or have been killed. Even before the latest offensive the "rebels" managed to control a good chunk of it. By now, any Ukrainian attempt to restore control has long been abandoned. The fight goes on far inside Ukraine. In fact, that was one of the points of this offensive: to make sure Ukrainians cannot come within a long shot of the border. Big chunks of the border where there had been no "rebel" activity before have been completely wiped out by an assault from the Russian territory (preceded by artillery bombardment that went on for days - from the Russian territory).  

Russians have been able to drive into Ukraine in tanks during the whole summer, but, at least, by early August it seemed like Ukraine has restricted the hole to the far Eastern sector of the frontier (and nearly to cut off much of the rebel activity from the affected sector of the border). Then, even before the latest offensive, a big Ukrainian group was surrounded (with the help of Russian artillery fire) and nearly wiped out (only with great difficulty, by launching a dangerous counteroffensive Ukrainians were able to salvage part of that force). But that meant tripling of the border segment controlled by Russians. Shortly before the full-blown assault another group got cut off further West. And in the latest assault Russians went in along the Black Sea (while simultaneously wiping out Ukrainian defenses between the Sea and the previous rebel area).  Basically, at this point the front line in most places between Mariupol (still in Ukrainian hands, but semi-besieged) and Luhansk (by now firmly once again under Russian control) is far inside Ukraine. Look up the map to understand what it means.

Asking whether Ukrainians control the border is like asking whether the Poles controlled the border in mid September 1939 or whether the Soviets controlled the border in July 1941 - this is long, long past that stage.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 05, 2014, 09:46:22 PM
What should have been done? It should have been made clear, that IRRESPECTIVE OF WHAT UKRAINE AGREES TO, major economic sanctions were to be introduced immediately against Russia (I discussed what these would be). In addition, NATO and allied troops should have been moved towards the Russian borders everywhere - from Norway to Japan. Kaliningrad transit routes should have been cut yesterday - a month ago, really - with a good NATO force stationed to make sure Poles and Lithuanians would feel comfortable about it. It should have been made clear that no relaxations of this sanctions would even be discussed until every bit of Donetsk and Luhansk territory is under the control of the Kiev government: to put this clearly enough, ambassadors should have been recalled and Russian ambassadors expelled.

It has to be understood, that this is NOT the Ukraine problem that Europe is facing. It is the Russian problem. Ukraine is not important by itself - it is important only because, by virtue of geography, it is what protects Europe from Russia. Putin thinks he is facing a bunch of weak-kneed schoolgirls in the West - they will flee if he so much as looks at them. Pretty soon we are going to have Russians moving into Estonia - will it be similarly let to sign a  "cease-fire agreement" with the People's Republic of Narva?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 05, 2014, 09:49:31 PM
Those are the minimal steps that should have been taken. Ideally, of course, Ukraine should have been offered direct help. The biggest problem for their army, as I understand, that their air force, long in a state of lazy decay, has now been pretty much wiped out. One could only dream of US doing for Ukraine what it is doing for Iraq, but at least some help there would have been valuable.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on September 06, 2014, 01:01:56 AM
I agree with you.  It's funking disgusting how the West has hung Ukraine out to dry.  It's funking disgusting that 80% of Germans wouldn't want to defend the Baltics if they're attacked.  Obama made a nice speech the other day saying how we're totally onboard with defending the Baltics, but are we going to do it alone?  Merkel gave a similar speech, but she also stressed how important the NATO-Russia Founding Act is to her.  And do they actually mean it?  Will Obama have JFK's balls if the Putin hits the fan?  I fear he won't.  If we let Putin turn NATO into a joke, we'll all deserve the sh**tty future we get.  It shouldn't have gotten this far, it should have been stopped in Georgia.  It should have been stopped when the issues in the Ukraine first popped up.  It definitely should have been stopped when we had proof Russia itself was invading the Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 06, 2014, 06:48:53 AM
I don't really think that hitting Russia with sanctions on the same day a ceasefire is reached is the right thing to do.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 06, 2014, 09:30:10 AM
I don't really think that hitting Russia with sanctions on the same day a ceasefire is reached is the right thing to do.

Hitting Russia with sanctions on any day is the right hing to do. Those sanctions should have been imposed months ago.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on September 07, 2014, 12:51:48 AM
Well that didn't last long.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraines-fragile-cease-fire-seems-to-be-holding/2014/09/06/b799a458-35fa-11e4-9e92-0899b306bbea_story.html


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 07, 2014, 01:25:23 AM
I don't know why, but this whole Ukraine thing (which I guess has moved on beyond Ukraine now) has made me genuinely angry in a way that I don't ever feel about foreign events, or even events here, except perhaps those relating to countries with which I am personally connected (i.e. Ghana and Ethiopia). I almost feel somewhat bad for getting so worked up about events there- after all, there are several ongoing conflicts far more deadlier, destructive, and depressing than this one. Indeed, if I were someone else I could see such sentiment considered racist- "caring more about the death of white people than blacks or browns" or something like that. And perhaps it's the fact that Europe is supposed to be a region that has moved passed this sort of thing, yes.

Often ag likes to make allusions to the Sudetenland- which at this point is certainly not hyperbolic (and references to Godwin's Law irrelevant). But I've come to think of it as more akin to the invasion of Ethiopia by the Fascists in 1935- which is perhaps why I feel so strongly about it. A naked act of imperialist aggression, barely condemned by the international community, little done to stop it, and whose initiator was openly praised by certain elements in the West. And completely unpunished. There was no war in Czechoslovakia- but there was in Ethiopia. Do the prophetic words of Haile Selassie that rang so true for their time-"it is us today, it will be you tomorrow"-as they do for ours?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on September 07, 2014, 02:18:17 AM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on September 07, 2014, 05:40:22 AM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Germany became stronger relative to Britain/France by waiting. That goes for the entire 1936-1939 period.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 07, 2014, 06:17:21 AM
I don't know why, but this whole Ukraine thing (which I guess has moved on beyond Ukraine now) has made me genuinely angry in a way that I don't ever feel about foreign events, or even events here, except perhaps those relating to countries with which I am personally connected (i.e. Ghana and Ethiopia). I almost feel somewhat bad for getting so worked up about events there- after all, there are several ongoing conflicts far more deadlier, destructive, and depressing than this one. Indeed, if I were someone else I could see such sentiment considered racist- "caring more about the death of white people than blacks or browns" or something like that. And perhaps it's the fact that Europe is supposed to be a region that has moved passed this sort of thing, yes.

Often ag likes to make allusions to the Sudetenland- which at this point is certainly not hyperbolic (and references to Godwin's Law irrelevant). But I've come to think of it as more akin to the invasion of Ethiopia by the Fascists in 1935- which is perhaps why I feel so strongly about it. A naked act of imperialist aggression, barely condemned by the international community, little done to stop it, and whose initiator was openly praised by certain elements in the West. And completely unpunished. There was no war in Czechoslovakia- but there was in Ethiopia. Do the prophetic words of Haile Selassie that rang so true for their time-"it is us today, it will be you tomorrow"-as they do for ours?

This x1000.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 07, 2014, 08:37:25 AM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 07, 2014, 08:41:10 AM
And, btw, for one more comparison with the 1930s. Many of the most important Soviet military factories are in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. By allowing P to swallow Ukraine, you are allowing him to reconstitute thee Soviet arms machine. Guess, why does he want it?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on September 07, 2014, 10:17:44 AM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.

... and people starting wars, because they see Hitler in every corner, don't help keeping the peace.

Putin is not Hitler, Ukraine are not Czechoslovakia and 2014 are not 1938.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 07, 2014, 10:39:43 AM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Putin might not be Hitler, but appeasing him will have the same effect.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.

... and people starting wars, because they see Hitler in every corner, don't help keeping the peace.

Putin is not Hitler, Ukraine are not Czechoslovakia and 2014 are not 1938.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 07, 2014, 01:12:07 PM
Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

No. That is completely wrong. Had Britain and France (and I'm guessing Czechoslovakia, and maybe even Poland) fought the Germans over an invasion of the Sudetenland they would have won decisively and rather quickly. Hitler probably would have been ousted in short order by the more conservative elements in the Heer and the Junkers (the same sort of people who mounted the Valkryie plot) for his recklessness. Had they confronted him over the Rhineland it would ended even faster.

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.

... and people starting wars, because they see Hitler in every corner, don't help keeping the peace.

Putin is not Hitler, Ukraine are not Czechoslovakia and 2014 are not 1938.

Surely you think that we in the 21st century ought to be above wars of state aggression and blatant conquest? I'm struggling to think of the last time this happened, when a country just invaded another one with the intention of annexing non-disputed territory. The first Gulf War? And the last sucessful one- the invasion of Portuguese Timor? Or Operation Polo, if you want to make an exception for colonies (although that might not be the best example).

That was in 1947. The idea that the soldiers of one country should not be able to just march into another country and take over its sovereign territory merely because they want is one of the more crucial parts of the "international order". I'm not sure how you can act so blasé about this.

People- or at least ag, I imagine, myself, and others here- aren't making the comparison to Czechoslovakia out of mere hyperbole. It is being made because of the consequences it brought- which is why I prefer to make the comparison with the invasion of Ethiopia.The invasion emboldened not just Mussolini to engage in further conquest, but showed the whole world that the "international community" had no intention of stopping the wars of aggression they had proclaimed outlawed just a few years prior- encouraging further aggression by Japan and, yes Gernany.

Thus the truly disturbing thing about this is not just that it shows Putin that the West is unwilling to truly resist acts of aggression, but it shows tyrants the world over that the "international community" won't do much if they were to decide to march into a neighboring country one day with the aim of taking over a province or two- "if Putin could do it, why not us?" "Indeed, not only do they stand by idly doing little more than finger-wagging, but they sell him naval ships, invite him to their get-togethers, invest in his country, have their companies change their maps to show his new conquests, take money from his rich friends, and even have their leaders attend his birthday party!".

The consequences of Western inaction extend well beyond the Ukraine or Europe,  it is an event with potential to create instability on a global scale.

At least Hitler had the courtesy to be open with his aggression.  Putin seems to take us all for dunces with their talk of "polite people", "self defense forces", and "volunteers", not to mention Soviet-style referenda.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 07, 2014, 02:02:57 PM
Czechoslovakia comparison has one key flaw. There were no nuclear weapons back in the 1930s. If  you think you can have a NATO-Russia clash without someone, at some point, pushing the button, then you're delusional. That's why Putin won't be invading any NATO member state. That's why NATO won't intervene militarily in Ukraine.

I see that for some of you the only sign of "action" would be blowing something up, and whatever  NATO, or the United States, or the European Union are doing, you'd be screaming about appeasement, but there are still many other avenues to stand up to Putin and help Ukraine without playing out to certain posters apocalyptic fantasies. 





Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on September 07, 2014, 02:53:28 PM
The whole discussion about blowing things up is irrelevant because it's not going to happen. Putin's actions seem to show that he does value his relations with the West, because otherwise he would have "taken Kiev in two weeks" or so he says. For that reason it's a bit of a straw-man.

The problem is that even far milder actions (like France cancelling the sale of Mistral warships, or ejecting Russia from SWIFT) that would still play significantly into Putin's calculations, are not being considered because of short term economic calculations, as well as the 28-nation unanimity rule for any action to be taken. And since Obama does not seem to want to move ahead of the E.U., Slovakia has an effective veto on not only the whole E.U. bloc but also the U.S. It's the extremely tepid Western response than emboldens Putin, as of course he will move forward if he sees no cost to doing so (as in Crimea). Supplying weapons to Ukraine should be on the table, if not decided upon. After all, even during the Cold War, the West supplied weapons to countries fighting against Soviet domination (Afghanistan) quite successfully, whereas the Soviets supplied the North Koreans and North Vietnamese likewise. None of this implies a direct confrontation.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 07, 2014, 03:50:09 PM
Czechoslovakia comparison has one key flaw. There were no nuclear weapons back in the 1930s. If  you think you can have a NATO-Russia clash without someone, at some point, pushing the button, then you're delusional. That's why Putin won't be invading any NATO member state. That's why NATO won't intervene militarily in Ukraine.

I see that for some of you the only sign of "action" would be blowing something up, and whatever  NATO, or the United States, or the European Union are doing, you'd be screaming about appeasement, but there are still many other avenues to stand up to Putin and help Ukraine without playing out to certain posters apocalyptic fantasies.  


I do not want anything blown up - whether with conventional weapons, or with nuclear. Most of all, I do not want Moscow bombed - I have family there. It is precisely because of this, that I firmly believe in most severe non-military measures: these have to be adopted ASAP. Putin should understand that he is facing people who are willing to make it very painful for him, even if it is very costly for them. And if he does not understand this, then those around him should understand it well enough to get rid of him. The half-measures that have been taken up till now make him believe that he is dealing with a bunch of pussies, who will not dare to stop him. Because of this, he will continue pushing forward - until he hits that red line that makes military conflict inevitable. He should be stopped before that - not there. Because once you get to the line, it is too late.

Merely the fearfulness of the consequences is not enough to prevent them happening. WWI was called "a war to end all wars" for a reason - everybody KNEW how fearful a modern war would be. Nevertheless, the same generation had to fight another war - much more dreadful than the first.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 07, 2014, 04:00:21 PM
Czechoslovakia comparison has one key flaw. There were no nuclear weapons back in the 1930s. If  you think you can have a NATO-Russia clash without someone, at some point, pushing the button, then you're delusional. That's why Putin won't be invading any NATO member state. That's why NATO won't intervene militarily in Ukraine.

I see that for some of you the only sign of "action" would be blowing something up, and whatever  NATO, or the United States, or the European Union are doing, you'd be screaming about appeasement, but there are still many other avenues to stand up to Putin and help Ukraine without playing out to certain posters apocalyptic fantasies.  


I do not want anything blown up - whether with conventional weapons, or with nuclear. Most of all, I do not want Moscow bombed - I have family there. It is precisely because of this, that I firmly believe in most severe non-military measures: these have to be adopted ASAP. Putin should understand that he is facing people who are willing to make it very painful for him, even if it is very costly for them. And if he does not understand this, then those around him should understand it well enough to get rid of him. The half-measures that have been taken up till now make him believe that he is dealing with a bunch of pussies, who will not dare to stop him. Because of this, he will continue pushing forward - until he hits that red line that makes military conflict inevitable. He should be stopped before that - not there. Because once you get to the line, it is too late.

I'm very glad we're in agreement on this.

Quote
Merely the fearfulness of the consequences is not enough to prevent them happening. WWI was called "a war to end all wars" for a reason - everybody KNEW how fearful a modern war would be. Nevertheless, the same generation had to fight another war - much more dreadful than the first.

That is true, however, neither Allies not Axis had a capability of whipping out entire nations by pushing the button. We're living with the nuclear weapons for almost 70 years now and during that time, the humanity faced crisies of far greater magnitude than current Ukraine crisis, yet no one ever dared to cross the line (and it's not like people with cool heads were always in charge).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 07, 2014, 04:01:52 PM
The whole discussion about blowing things up is irrelevant because it's not going to happen. Putin's actions seem to show that he does value his relations with the West, because otherwise he would have "taken Kiev in two weeks" or so he says. For that reason it's a bit of a straw-man.


The reason Putin has not taken Kiev is not so much that he fears the West, as that he does not have the force to hold it then. Yes, Russian military has strengthened in the last few years - but it is still far from its old Soviet self in readiness or capacity. And "taking Kiev" would imply then occupying a large territory - in the face of a major partisan war that would inevitably start, and would likely spill into Russia. It is doubtful, the Russian army would be able to effectively stop it fast. To put it in another way, "taking Kiev" means that the pipelines will be blown up - and he still wants to sell gas, because that is all he has to sell.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 07, 2014, 04:09:40 PM


That is true, however, neither Allies not Axis had a capability of whipping out entire nations by pushing the button. We're living with the nuclear weapons for almost 70 years now and during that time, the humanity faced crisies of far greater magnitude than current Ukraine crisis, yet no one ever dared to cross the line (and it's not like people with cool heads were always in charge).

But things came very close a few times. Korea, Berlin, Cuba, etc... Do you really want to bet it could not have crossed the line back then? And why not now? At least, by the 1970s the lines were firmly drawn - the rules of the game were known. It is a lot less clear today.

What happens if Putin decides to test those NATO pussies and goes into Narva? Will the US step back and sacrifice - the eminently sacrifaceable - Estonia, in order to avoid the war? Well, that would  mean you, guys, are naked in Poland. And if they do not sacrifice Estonia, what exactly are they going to do - somehow defend Estonia against the invasion without defeating the Russians in the field?

This is why, there should have been a massive deployment of US and Western European troops on the frontier. The Russians should know that they cannot enter Narva without directly attacking the Americans - physically attacking American troops. They should also know that any further attempt at mischief would be dramatically costly and painful. We, simply, cannot afford any ambiguity on what Western action would be.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2014, 11:29:55 AM
Austria to send soldiers to Ukraine ...

... if somehow Ukraine/Russia/others manage to set up a peacekeeping mission for the East.

http://www.thelocal.at/20140908/austria-could-send-soldiers-to-ukraine


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 08, 2014, 03:13:44 PM

Why is Austria supporting a Nazi-loving apartheid states? :(


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on September 10, 2014, 04:56:21 AM
Unofficial translation to the protocol signed in Minsk:

Quote
Protocol


Based on the results of consultations of the Trilateral contact group regarding joint steps towards implementation of the Peace Plan of President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and initiatives of President of Russia Vladimir Putin.



As a result of consideration and discussion of the proposals from members of consultations in Minsk on Sept. 1. 2014, the Trilateral contact group composed of representatives from Ukraine, Russian Federation and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, an understanding was reached regarding the need to take the following steps:


1. Provide for immediate and two-sided ceasefire.

2. Provide monitoring and verification from the side of OSCE of the ceasefire.

3. Conduct decentralization of power, including through approval of the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” (Law on special status)

4. Provide permanent monitoring at the Ukrainian-Russian state border, and verification by OSCE, with creation of a safety zone in the areas adjacent to the border in Ukraine and Russian Federation.

5. Immediately free all hostages and illegally held persons.

6. Approve a law to prevent persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

7. Continue an inclusive national dialogue.

8. Take measures to improve the humanitarian situation in Donbas.

9. Conduct early local elections in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” (Law on special status).

10. Remove illegal military formations, military equipment and militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.

11. Approve a program for economic development of Donbas and renew the vital functions of the region.

12. Give guarantees of personal security for participants of consultations.


Members of the Trilateral contact group:


Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini (Signed)

Second President of Ukraine L.D. Kuchma (Signed)

Ambassador of Russian Federation to Ukraine M.Yu.Zurabov (Signed)


A.V. Zakharchenko (Signed)

I.V. Plotnitskiy (Signed)

The ceasefire is very fragile. The exchange of prisoners is still going on. Poroshenko will introduce a bill to the parliament next week offering more autonomy to the Eastern regions, but rejects federalization.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on September 10, 2014, 05:57:12 AM
Poor Ukraine....you've been boned again.  I don't know why anybody with means would stay.  It's obvious the rest of us don't care and will do almost nothing to help if Putin decides he wants a little more (and he will).  Hopefully Hillary will have bigger balls than Obama.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 10, 2014, 09:28:27 AM
Obama's balls are not the problem here.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on September 10, 2014, 12:49:50 PM
If you thought that the far-right battalions were an invention of Russian propaganda and would not create any problem:

Quote
"I have nothing against Russian nationalists, or a great Russia," said Dmitry, as we sped through the dark Mariupol night in a pickup truck, a machine gunner positioned in the back. "But Putin's not even a Russian. Putin's a Jew."
[...]
But there is an increasing worry that while the Azov and other volunteer battalions might be Ukraine's most potent and reliable force on the battlefield against the separatists, they also pose the most serious threat to the Ukrainian government, and perhaps even the state, when the conflict in the east is over. The Azov causes particular concern due to the far-right, even neo-Nazi leanings of many of its members.
[...]
Poroshenko will be killed in a matter of months, Dmitry said, and a dictator will come to power.
"What are the police going to do? They could not do anything against the peaceful protesters on Maidan; they are hardly going to withstand armed fighting units."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/know-your-volunteer-battalions-infographic-363944.html


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 10, 2014, 01:14:06 PM
If you thought that the far-right battalions were an invention of Russian propaganda and would not create any problem:

Quote
"I have nothing against Russian nationalists, or a great Russia," said Dmitry, as we sped through the dark Mariupol night in a pickup truck, a machine gunner positioned in the back. "But Putin's not even a Russian. Putin's a Jew."
[...]
But there is an increasing worry that while the Azov and other volunteer battalions might be Ukraine's most potent and reliable force on the battlefield against the separatists, they also pose the most serious threat to the Ukrainian government, and perhaps even the state, when the conflict in the east is over. The Azov causes particular concern due to the far-right, even neo-Nazi leanings of many of its members.
[...]
Poroshenko will be killed in a matter of months, Dmitry said, and a dictator will come to power.
"What are the police going to do? They could not do anything against the peaceful protesters on Maidan; they are hardly going to withstand armed fighting units."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/know-your-volunteer-battalions-infographic-363944.html

Azov is an actual right-wing neo-fascist battalion - at least, its leadership is (most of the fighters by now are there simply because it was a fighting unit which they could join - they have been taking all volunteers). Unlike the Right Sector, at least, this one is not a fiction. It, also, should not be compared to the other units - it IS the one about which this is well-known and acknowledged by most Ukrainians as well. In fact, I heard a very detailed analysis of this that had been broadcast on Ukrainian TV.

The other volunteer units, for the most part, are not ideologically similar. Yes, they are real irregular forces, some of them pretty ruthless - but they do not come from the same ideological core as Azov. And, in any case, Azov is precisely local, Eastern Ukrainian - that is where such views are a lot more common. it is not a Western Ukrainian import.

Then, again, these sorts of statements are a lot more common among the "Novorossiya" fighters and among the Russians in General. They are all convinced that Poroshenko is, really, a Waltzman - and are not at all embarrassed about saying that (no more embarrassed than they are about, say, spotting Swastika-like tattoos). At this point, such views (sans accusing comrade Putin himself) come close to being Russia´s official ideology. They are most definitely the official ideology of nearly the entire "Novorossiya" leadership. This is not what Putin and most of the Russians call "fascism" - that is healthy patriotism for them. As far as they are concerned, Ukrainians are fascists not because of the Azov (ideologically, they find precisely these guys the most similar and easiest to understand) - but because they do not consider themselves Russian and even sometimes dare to speak Ukrainian. BTW, same is true of the Jews - they are not Russian, and, therefore, they are fascist. The word "fascist" in the current Russian parlance simply means somebody who does not like the Russian policy of reclaiming its rightful territory. That is as simple as that.

There is a good reason Ukrainian Jews are so united in support of their "fascist" government. They know what Russian "anti-fascism" means - and it means nothing good for the Jews.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on September 11, 2014, 11:00:34 PM
Quote
KIEV: The European Union has agreed to slap a new round of sanctions on Russia on Friday despite the ceasefire in Ukraine, triggering a swift threat of retaliation from Moscow.

However, European Council president Herman Van Rompuy said on Thursday the punitive measures, which target Russian oil and defence companies, could be lifted after a review of the truce at the end of September.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/EU-to-slap-new-sanctions-on-Russia/articleshow/42318558.cms (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/EU-to-slap-new-sanctions-on-Russia/articleshow/42318558.cms)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 18, 2014, 02:18:57 PM
Let's try giving the latest news a Russian spin:

<strawman>
Ukrainian fascist thugs cross border and attack the hands of the Western media that feed them (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29249642).
</strawman>


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 20, 2014, 11:40:58 AM
So what's this? They've just surrendered? I mean they've promised to give "self-rule" to the occupied regions, promised to stop even flying planes in the region, and just totally cave in completely with the rebels only bound by a completely hollow pledge to remove "foreign mercenaries" from the region. I mean for Christ's sake, Kuchma was representing Kiev. Kuchma!

I mean I couldn't entirely believe what I was reading. The only logical explanation would be there's been some sort of internal coup (by who?) that we are unaware of. It's just so unbelievably sudden.

I mean I can't believe I'm saying this but I can understand, at least after this, why people would support the far-right fronts in Ukraine. Their government has completely and suddenly capitulated. Putin has unambiguously won.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on September 20, 2014, 11:57:29 AM
Maybe they realized they were not going to get any serious help from the only people that could possibly help them so decided to cut their losses?  We've gotten into the habit of hanging Eastern Euros out to dry when the bear growls.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 20, 2014, 05:44:34 PM
Maybe they realized they were not going to get any serious help from the only people that could possibly help them so decided to cut their losses?  We've gotten into the habit of hanging Eastern Euros out to dry when the bear growls.

I was thinking that could be it, that they contacted the usual people for help against the renewed offensive and came up empty handed; and and this point decided to cut their losses, as you said. But I don't get such a sense, and I will admit this is coming from only one or two articles I've read on the agreement, (I should probably check the good "The Interpreter" blog and Twitter*). Poroshenko is being feted in Washington as we speak, I would think that had we deserted Kiev he would not show up.

I mean I'm at a loss to understand what has happened here. I know the rebels have made considerable gains, but I'm not completely sure how much they've taken. The Ukrainian National Security Council has made maps of the situation (http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/), that, besides being as far I can tell honest, are quite detailed and well done in general (with the exceptions of their decision to unhelpfully overlay the two oblasts with the Ukrainian flag, confusingly marking cities that I doubt were ever controlled by the separatists as "liberated", and slightly-too-large symbols for troop positions), but the last one was from a week ago at least until last week (http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/news/1806.html).

Either way it does seem things have taken a turn for the worse, but I do not get the impression this is an agreement consented to out of desperation. I mean Kiev may know something we don't, some sort of ultimatum from Putin to bend over or face a full South Ossetia-style invasion in support of the separatist entities in the Donbas (and perhaps the formation of similar "self-defense militias" across the whole of the part of the country that the Donbas entity/ies seeks to take over (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_States_of_New_Russia_in_Ukraine_(Envisaged).PNG)) that forced them to fold the way they did. I mean, am I misreading the BBC article on this (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29290246)? Let's look at what I'm reading and what I'm concluding and tell me if I'm unreasonable.

Quote
Meanwhile, a humanitarian convoy of about 200 lorries from Russia arrived in the city.

Russia says the convoy - Russia's third in recent weeks - delivered food, water and generators, but this was done without Ukraine's authorisation.

So, first off, Kiev (and I guess we as well) has stopped caring about these "humanitarian" convoys of Russian army trucks that have been painted white, being driven by Russian soldiers, and are carrying who knows what (remember they all were so empty, too?) that are now coming into the country at their leisure. And who said it was "without Ukraine's authorisation"; the article makes it sound like the comment came from Moscow rather than Kiev. The fact they felt free to mention leads one to believe Moscow isn't asking for permission at this point and that Kiev isn't terribly bothered by it. This is strange.

Quote
Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, representing Kiev at the talks, said that all sides had agreed to move back some of their heavy weapons. He added that the deal would be implemented within 24 hours and monitors from the OSCE would travel to the buffer zone to check for compliance.

I mean, "move back their heavy weapons"? Just as the separatists never had any Buks, right? I mean they have the luxury of having a whole other country, and not a small one, either, in which to hide their weapons from inspectors. Obviously Ukraine can do no such thing. While I'm leery of the OSCE as an organisation, the monitors are good people, but they can only see what the separatists allow them to see (remember how the observers were simply blocked for days from seeing from seeing the MH17 crash site by the separatists, some of whom appeared to be drunk and whose apparent leader went by the nom de guerre of "Grumpy"?) and even then what they are shown might not be, well, real (see note below). Or will things somehow magically manage to be different this time around?

And the representative of Kiev is Leonid Kuchma? Perhaps I'm seriously mistaken about Kuchma, but this guy was essentially Yanukovych 1.0. Indeed it's probably the other way around, Kuchma was far worse, so Yanukovych being Kuchma 2.0 (beta edition). This is the same guy who had journalists murdered, tried censoring the media, sold arms to Saddam Hussein, was the one who made Yanukovych Prime Minister in the first place, fled the country when he lost, and enthusiastically endorsed him in 2010. You could very well call Putin Kuchma 3.0- he's certainly taken after him, albeit more competently. The two are rather chummy. So you have to wonder who in this government (which I think had re-opened charges against him for the murder of that journalist) would have considered him for the post, even just as the leader of the delegation. God forbid he was actually negotiating. So this is bizarre.

Quote
Key points: to ban offensive operations; to ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone

Ah, Kiev has consented to not get rid of the separatists running amok in the Donbas, i.e. they're not going to even try. And then there's that "self-rule" insanity, which I'll get to in a moment. But they've even agreed to not fly planes over their own airspace. Meanwhile the separatists had no planes for the Ukrainian Army Air Defense to shoot down with a Buk back in July, and as far as I am aware they still don't. Meanwhile the separatists are amorphous (and disorganised) enough to basically act as they please and pin the blame on some other local "self-defense force", which of course is what Putin has been doing the whole time. So this doesn't actually stop the separatists from doing anything while it represents a major concession for Kiev.

Quote
[They agreed to] withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone.... The Russian ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, representing Moscow at the talks, said that "mercenaries" were fighting on both sides, and called on OSCE to oversee their removal.

A concession from the separatists, at last. But, oho, there "aren't any Russian soldiers in the Ukraine", now are they? So this means the separatists do not really have to do anything, it would seem. Because if Kiev and the West were correct the the actual implementation of this condition would mean the territories controlled by the separatist entities would be mostly empty, except for, well, civilians. But of course that's not how they see it, now do they? So nothing happens

And this same old Russian false equivalency! What mercenaries are fighting for the Ukrainian side? Actually, what actual mercenaries are involved in this conflict, for that matter. I was not under the impression that Blackwater or Executive Solutions were active in the region. Perhaps it's just a matter of translation but I could easily see this condition being ridiculously meaningless as it would seem to be and the original Russian referring to actual "mercenaries" as opposed to "foreign fighters" or something more pertinent. I mean I want to read the full text of this thing. I'm hoping it isn't as absurd as it appears to be here, but I'm expecting to find an agreement that is blackly comic in its resemblance to an exercise in how to design a treaty as lopsided as possible. I'd probably cry and laugh.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 20, 2014, 05:45:38 PM
Quote
Last week, Ukraine's parliament approved two pieces of legislation that may in the end also help stabilise and transform the country, [including] a law granting limited self-rule and amnesty to the militants.

Quote
The law guarantees a "special status" allowing a degree of self-rule for three years for the self-proclaimed separatist territories, the Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics".

It endorses policing by local militias, protection for use of the Russian language and the possibility for local government bodies to "strengthen good neighbourly relations" with their counterparts across the border in Russia.

The law also promises Kiev will pay to rebuild the region, and says local elections will be held on December 7.

Wait, what? I needed to read another article in the Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11099126/Ukraine-separatists-granted-self-rule-and-amnesty-as-Kiev-agrees-EU-pact.html) to make sure I what I was reading was correct. I had been under the impression that the two oblasts had been given autonomy, not the separatists themselves. And an amnesty? An amnesty? For the "terrorists"? Does this mean, for example, Igor Girkin is now free from any risk of prosecution for his actions? Or the militants who shot down MH17- they are covered by this amnesty for "participants of events in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions"?

So let me get this, the separatist entities are actually recognised as extant by Kiev, actually handed governing powers, and allowed to "policing powers" for a period of three years, which would include when this local "election" is held? So they are going to allow the separatists to operate freely where they are now, and come this "election", held while the separatists are "policing" the region, they are going to allow the winners of this "election" to take control of the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts?

So Kiev is promising to not just tolerate, but fully legitimise, the complete handover of the two oblasts to the separatists? What? And these separatist-run oblasts, whose authority would be recognised by Kiev without Kiev's authority being recognised by the... entities, will also be allowed "the possibility for local government bodies to "strengthen good neighbourly relations" with their counterparts across the border in Russia." I mean I haven't a clue what this actually is supposed to mean but it's clearly nothing good. Who put it there?

Just what is all this? Yulia Tymoshenko is quoted as saying that this constitutes "complete surrender" and that the "decision legalises terrorism and the occupation of Ukraine," which is completely accurate, pedantry about the word "terrorism" aside, unless there's something going here that both Yulia and I don't know. Serhiy Taruta, the (actual, for now) Governor of Donetsk Oblast, told the BBC that its inhabitants would feel "raped" if the law came into effect, asking, "where are we - in Ukraine or Russia? What did we fight for? What did our guys die for?" Again, the guy is completely on point. Not only are the recognised authorities shortly going to be armed separatists, who in the meantime, will have the power to arrest, detain, torture, etc, anyone that they do not like, but these are the very same armed separatists that the government has spent the better part of a year trying to defeat. I don't know what the Ukrainian soldiers would have died for, either, although I suppose this fellow would best be advised to leave the Donetsk Oblast/People's Republic while he still can lest he find himself shipped to Lubyanka in the name of "good neighborly relations".

Again, I'm wondering who wrote this- apparently it was proposed by Poroshenko himself? I mean one wants to believe this is a capitulation made in the face of tremendous pressure, it is the only way I could imagine this would be seen as acceptable. But, and perhaps they see things differently than I do, the present condition does not seem to merit folding so completely. It is possible Russia made some sort of threat to significantly escalate the conflict, as I suggested before, but you would think they would at least have informed the other parliamentarians of this (it was a closed session, after all), if not just put it out for all the world to see, which has generally been their MO. They would at least signal that this was made under tremendous pressure, and they weren't happy about it.

But if it was really out of a desperate desire to stop something from happening, or because of the refusal of the West to do more, I don't think the government would act as they are now- as if they've solved the crisis completely and that everything will be returning to normal shortly! People are angered by this and you'd imagine politicians would be eager to calm an angry populace, particularly this one, and one going to the polls in a month, by going and saying things like "sure, we caved in, but if we hadn't, half the country would have been occupied by the Russian army by now instead of the bit they have now". But as far as I am aware they aren't (correct me if I am wrong).

This is why I'm led to speculate that something has... happened behind the scenes in Kiev. I say this not only without a shred of evidence to support my thoughts, but also in near-complete ignorance of how this agreement was passed, and how holds what power in the government. But it must be kept in mind that Petro Poroshenko was initially an ally of Kuchma before breaking with him! One is led to believe that his "bloc", perhaps the people like him in particular (with business interests with Russia) were able to persuade him (and other relevant actors) that this was getting excessive and they should cut their losses lest their interests suffer any further. Or something like that. I don't know if there is a tally for the vote on this agreement, but it should be kept in mind the present Parliament still is the same one elected in 2012, i.e. 40% of its members belong or formerly belonged to the Party of Regions. So it does not seem impossible for such a thing to be passed in the face of "nationalist" resistance. It is all so bizarre, and just sad.


I really only first used my Twitter account to follow what was going on with MH17 and followed a bunch of reporters and officials- you get a rather satisfied feeling of seeing things happen well before the BBC reports it or whatnot. (Although you end up checking the page to see if they've reported it already) A good example of this was when the OSCE observers first went to the refrigerated train in Torez, where the "people" "working" at the crash site had stored the bodies of the victims. Being able to see things unfold in real time is rather interesting.

Things, as you may recall, were especially interesting after the observers left- along with all the very serious "security people" who had been "guarding" the train until then- leaving just three reporters there who all remarked as to how empty the place had become. One from the BBC, one from The Guardian (Shaun Walker, the same guy who stumbled upon that APC convoy a few weeks ago), and one from, erm, Buzzfeed (Max Seddon, who strikes me as rather out of place where he is, as does the idea of Buzzfeed having a news operation at all). So now my Twitter feed is exclusively composed of things about events in Ukraine or Russia- and the commentary of the President of Estonia (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198277.msg4290941#msg4290941).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on September 21, 2014, 07:49:29 PM
It has been made fairly clear to the Ukrainians, that they can count on, at most, the moral support from the West. They have to live with the hand they've been dealt. Which is crap: an army that cannot resist the Russian invasion and an economy that will be cut from most of its energy sources this winter. What are they supposed to do? So, they try to negotiate something that would, at least, postpone the full-blown Russian attack. May be, once the temperatures start going back up the Europeans would be willing to do, at least, something about Russia.

None of this, really, matters for the longer term. Putin will, at some point, go further and all these agreements will be made meaningless. If the West resists, Ukraine will get its own back. If it does not, it will be dismembered - and it will not be the only nation that will be dismembered in the process. For the moment, anything that does not involve a Russian assault on Kharkiv and Kiev tomorrow is a necessary respite.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on September 22, 2014, 02:25:22 AM
Tycoon's arrest sends shock wave through Russia (http://news.yahoo.com/billionaires-house-arrest-sends-stocks-crashing-064903289--finance.html)
Quote
The arrest of a Russian telecoms and oil tycoon has sent shock waves through the country's business community, with some fearing a return to the dark days of a decade ago, when the Kremlin asserted its power by imprisoning the country's then-richest man and expropriating his companies.

The criminal case against 65-year-old Vladimir Yevtushenkov marks the first attack on a billionaire businessman since the arrest in 2003 of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former head of Yukos, which was the country's largest oil company at the time. He spent the next decade in prison on tax evasion and misappropriation charges and saw his company taken over by the state and sold in pieces.

The prosecution of Khodorkovsky had sent a clear message to Russian oligarchs: stay out of politics and your property will be safe. Russia's rich have followed that rule for nearly a decade, and now fret the unspoken promise may be void.

"It shows that now, no one is protected," said Vladimir Milov, an opposition politician and former deputy energy minister.

Market watchers are almost unanimous in saying that Yevtushenkov's house arrest is a move by the government and state-owned oil giant Rosneft to take control of his oil company, Bashneft. Rosneft is seeing his oil output falling and has been hit by Western sanctions, whereas Bashneft is enjoying a boom, posting an industry-leading 11.5 percent rise in oil production in the second quarter this year.

The Investigative Committee, Russia's top criminal investigative agency, on Tuesday charged Yevtushenkov with money laundering and placed him under house arrest. He could face up to seven years in prison if found guilty.

<snip>
I didn't think it deserved it's own thread, but it is interesting.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on September 22, 2014, 02:42:23 AM
I didn't think it deserved it's own thread, but it is interesting.

Simfan made a Russia General Discussion:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196098.0 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196098.0)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on September 26, 2014, 09:07:33 AM
Hungary suspends gas flow to Ukraine

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29374151



Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on September 26, 2014, 06:09:32 PM
Russia threatens to cut off gas supply to EU countries because of reexporting to Ukraine.

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-eu-mustnt-export-gas-ukraine-report-071735764.html (http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-eu-mustnt-export-gas-ukraine-report-071735764.html)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on November 03, 2014, 01:32:18 AM
I may be wrong, but, it seems, a major Russian escalation (whether political or military is still not clear to me) is in the cards. Formal recognition of the "People´s Republics", possibly accompanied by official military base treaties seems likely.  Might be wrong, but it does smell that way.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: dead0man on November 03, 2014, 07:50:01 AM
I don't know what Putin's end game is, but he certainly isn't there yet.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Platypus on November 07, 2014, 11:44:00 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/07/ukraine-russian-military-column-east

"A column of 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and trucks carrying ammunition and fighters has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, the Kiev military said on Friday.

“The deployment continues of military equipment and Russian mercenaries to the frontlines,” spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a televised briefing referring to Thursday’s cross-border incursion.

Nato said it has seen an increase in Russian troops and equipment along the Ukraine border was looking into the reports. “We are aware of the reports of Russian troops and tanks crossing the border between Ukraine and Russia,” a Nato military officer told Reuters. “If this crossing into Ukraine is confirmed it would be further evidence of Russia’s aggression and direct involvement in destabilising Ukraine.”

..."


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on November 12, 2014, 11:54:51 AM
Why can't NATO ever verify this stuff itself? You would think with its satellite surveillance capabilities they would be able to either confirm or deny the Ukrainian government claims that they're being invaded. If the NATO position is, "gee, we can't tell whether Ukraine is being invaded or not" that's pretty pathetic, IMO.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on November 12, 2014, 01:15:09 PM
But, you know, those troops do not wear a uniform!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on November 12, 2014, 03:55:32 PM
Per the NYT, Nato has verified it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 12, 2014, 05:22:24 PM
I want Obama to punch Putin in the face at the conference.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Platypus on November 12, 2014, 07:22:53 PM
Nah, Obama can hold his arms back while Abbott does the punching. I posted it in the Aus thread, but I'll post it here too, Russia has sent warships to sit off the coast of QLD during the G20 meeting, and that offends me deeply.

Plus what does he think is going to happen if they actually engage? The US and Australia are the firmest of allies, and there is no way a missile on Bundaberg isn't met with one on Omsk, from the US, UK, or whoever. All it is is bullying and posturing and I can't believe Putin is so readily prepared to trash his nation's image further, after they shot down and killed 38 Australians, with such a stupid act.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on November 13, 2014, 02:01:20 PM
Nah, Obama can hold his arms back while Abbott does the punching. I posted it in the Aus thread, but I'll post it here too, Russia has sent warships to sit off the coast of QLD during the G20 meeting, and that offends me deeply.

Plus what does he think is going to happen if they actually engage? The US and Australia are the firmest of allies, and there is no way a missile on Bundaberg isn't met with one on Omsk, from the US, UK, or whoever. All it is is bullying and posturing and I can't believe Putin is so readily prepared to trash his nation's image further, after they shot down and killed 38 Australians, with such a stupid act.

I guess, Mr. P. is afraid, they are going to detain him in Australia, so he is sending in the Navy, in case a rescue is necessary :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on November 13, 2014, 10:54:33 PM
So, once again there are persistent rumors of Russian attack this weekend. Not the first time, of course.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: swl on December 03, 2014, 12:26:43 PM
So the new ukrainian government comprises 3 foreign citizens: one US citizen, one Georgian and one Lithuanian. TNot sure how this is supposed to help...


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on January 21, 2015, 03:04:15 PM
Latest news:

Quote
(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia on Wednesday of sending 9,000 troops to back separatist rebels in the east of his country, and the IMF chief said she backed extra financial help for Kiev as the conflict inflicts severe economic damage.

Moscow challenged Poroshenko to present facts to prove his allegations. However, he won support from NATO, which said the amount of heavy military equipment used by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine had increased, and the alliance repeated its call for the forces to withdraw.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Poroshenko made one of Kiev's boldest assertions yet that Russia's military is directly involved in a conflict in which more than 4,800 people have died since last April.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-ukraine-crisis-davos-poroshenko-idUSKBN0KU1TX20150121 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-ukraine-crisis-davos-poroshenko-idUSKBN0KU1TX20150121)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 21, 2015, 11:53:27 PM
Latest news:

Quote
(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko accused Russia on Wednesday of sending 9,000 troops to back separatist rebels in the east of his country, and the IMF chief said she backed extra financial help for Kiev as the conflict inflicts severe economic damage.

Moscow challenged Poroshenko to present facts to prove his allegations. However, he won support from NATO, which said the amount of heavy military equipment used by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine had increased, and the alliance repeated its call for the forces to withdraw.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Poroshenko made one of Kiev's boldest assertions yet that Russia's military is directly involved in a conflict in which more than 4,800 people have died since last April.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-ukraine-crisis-davos-poroshenko-idUSKBN0KU1TX20150121 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-ukraine-crisis-davos-poroshenko-idUSKBN0KU1TX20150121)
Yes, the Junta is accusing Russia again. So whats new?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on January 22, 2015, 12:19:51 AM
Of course you're pro-Kremlin.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: BaconBacon96 on January 22, 2015, 12:20:32 AM
The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on January 22, 2015, 12:26:16 AM
The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.

They're opposed to Putin, the Second Coming of Our Lord, so, they are evil.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 09:43:52 AM
The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_and_Defense_Council_of_Ukraine
Not to mention the government lowering spending everywhere but the military which it has been increasing.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Oakvale on January 22, 2015, 12:12:31 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 12:13:47 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Oakvale on January 22, 2015, 12:15:36 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

"Comrade! I am not a Communist! I am a Marxist-Leninist!"

Far more importantly, why are you saying "bloody", you are an American.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 12:29:56 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

"Comrade! I am not a Communist! I am a Marxist-Leninist!"

Far more importantly, why are you saying "bloody", you are an American.
I hope your aware that Leninism and Anarchism are to very different things.

Internationalism. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 01:40:57 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 01:55:33 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 22, 2015, 02:18:00 PM
American tried to keep Yanyukovych in power. The phone call with Victoria Nuland proves that. Nuland was urging the opposition the accept Yanyukovych's peace deal of getting to take the PM's office while Yanyukovych remained president. The opposition rejected it because it was a terrible deal, the PM under the then constitution had no power, Nuland wanted them to take it anyway.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Oakvale on January 22, 2015, 02:18:18 PM
It's a little unnerving how effective the Kremlin's propaganda has been in swaying the opinions of impressionable young Americans.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on January 22, 2015, 02:23:21 PM
It's a little unnerving how effective the Kremlin's propaganda has been in swaying the opinions of impressionable young Americans.

Considering the present Ukrainian government more fascist than Putin's regime is strange indeed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on January 22, 2015, 04:02:51 PM
The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_and_Defense_Council_of_Ukraine
Not to mention the government lowering spending everywhere but the military which it has been increasing.
Being forced into a war because of Russians invading them, albeit Russians that Putin can convince a few fools Russia itself didn't send, would tend to force a government to increase defense spending.  Your complaint would be like complaining that FDR had increased military spending after Pearl Harbor.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on January 22, 2015, 04:31:38 PM
It's a little unnerving how effective the Kremlin's propaganda has been in swaying the opinions of impressionable young Americans.

This. It's incredibly annoying to see the Internet Libertarians League and some elements of the radical left come to the defense of Putin's Imperial ambitions.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: BaconBacon96 on January 22, 2015, 04:41:42 PM
I have a friend who's pretty much a libertarian on most things, who's prepared to criticise the West to no end about anything, yet will go to great lengths to defend Putin's decidedly not libertarian regime and his actions in Ukraine.

I'd say it's a knee jerk reaction made out of pure opposition to the Western powers more than anything based in logic and reality. I suspect it might the same here.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on January 22, 2015, 05:13:33 PM
Well, at least, they are vocal, so the government can watch them and lock them if they try to do sabotage during a war.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 22, 2015, 05:35:40 PM
I have a friend who's pretty much a libertarian on most things, who's prepared to criticise the West to no end about anything, yet will go to great lengths to defend Putin's decidedly not libertarian regime and his actions in Ukraine.

I'd say it's a knee jerk reaction made out of pure opposition to the Western powers more than anything based in logic and reality. I suspect it might the same here.

Maybe also a knee jerk reaction to the media, since the corporatist and/or liberal media must always be lying. Not that they cover Ukraine that much but when they did cover it for about 2 days (when the president fled, when Tymoshenko got let out) the coverage was sort of fluffy and inspirational in tone.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on January 22, 2015, 06:05:15 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 22, 2015, 06:13:26 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

Boko Haram killing 2000 people is bad. Even if it doesn't happen in a NATO country you can still acknowledge it's bad and not defend the people who did it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on January 22, 2015, 08:58:13 PM
I'd say it's a knee jerk reaction made out of pure opposition to the Western powers more than anything based in logic and reality. I suspect it might the same here.

Yeah, it's kind of "geo-political hipsterdom".  They support just about any regime as long as it is "anti-Western".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 09:59:10 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

And if the West does nothing about Crimea he will invade a NATO country with probability 1. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, etc. are both in Nato - and in what Putin perceives as Russia's sphere of influence.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:00:54 PM
It's a little unnerving how effective the Kremlin's propaganda has been in swaying the opinions of impressionable young Americans.

Nah. They are no more numerous than the flatearthers.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 10:02:06 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

And if the West does nothing about Crimea he will invade a NATO country with probability 1. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, etc. are both in Nato - and in what Putin perceives as Russia's sphere of influence.
First off, how the f*** would a region which democratically decided to join Russia somehow lead to Putin going batsh** and invading someone?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on January 22, 2015, 10:03:38 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

And if the West does nothing about Crimea he will invade a NATO country with probability 1. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, etc. are both in Nato - and in what Putin perceives as Russia's sphere of influence.
First off, how the f*** would a region which democratically decided to join Russia somehow lead to Putin going batsh** and invading someone?

Agree with the point you're trying to make, but there is no way anyone can call what happened in Crimea democratic.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:03:53 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:05:45 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

And if the West does nothing about Crimea he will invade a NATO country with probability 1. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, etc. are both in Nato - and in what Putin perceives as Russia's sphere of influence.
First off, how the f*** would a region which democratically decided to join Russia somehow lead to Putin going batsh** and invading someone?

Unless you believe that democracy consists of announcing some numbers without any attempt at counting votes, I have no clue what you are talking about.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 10:07:29 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.
No, just no.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:08:07 PM
Well, at least, they are vocal, so the government can watch them and lock them if they try to do sabotage during a war.

God forbid. The should either be ignored, or made fun of. Nothing more.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:08:49 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.
No, just no.

What, you do not support a fascist autocrat? That is the best joke I've heard in a long time.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 10:13:15 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.
No, just no.

What, you do not support a fascist autocrat? That is the best joke I've heard in a long time.
So the National(ist) Guard bombs and murders civilians(including members of my family) and that's considered anti-fascist?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:40:07 PM
The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_and_Defense_Council_of_Ukraine
Not to mention the government lowering spending everywhere but the military which it has been increasing.

Well, that is a Council. Happy to hear you know how to translate "Rada" into Spanish. But you were asked about military leadership. And that one is sadly lucking here. The Council is convoked by the president, who is an elected civilian, whose only connection with the military is 2 years of service as a conscript in the Soviet Army back in the 1980s. Its other members are:

1. Interior minister. True - he is a son of a Soviet officer, an ethnic Armenian born in Baku, so could be an occupant :) No other obvious link to any military. Career politician for many years.
2. Head of the Central Bank - female, no obvious link to any military, from Eastern Ukraine.
3. Parliamentary speaker - Jewish, businessman, career politician, no obvious link to any military.
4. Foreign secretary, ethnic Russian, born and grew up in Russia, moved to Ukraine after college, a mathematician by training, career diplomat thereafter, no obvious link to any military.
5. Head of the presidential administration - ethnic Russian, a teacher of Russian language and literature by education, rich businessman, from Eastern Ukraine, no obvious link to any military.
6. Justice Minister - lawyer, no obvious link to any military.
7. Chairman of the Supreme Court - lawyer, no obvious link to any military, holds his post since Yanukovich years.
8. Minister of Information - journalist, no obvious link to any military.
9. Secretary of the Council - career politician from Eastern Ukraine, Baptist, no obvious link to any military.
10. Prime Minister - career politician, no obvious link to any military.

So, including the president 11 civilians (some might have been conscripts in their day). Now the ranks:

1. Head of Foreign Intelligence. Lieutenant General.
2. Chief of Staff. Colonel General
3. Head of Security Service. Security service oficer (not sure of rank, but yeah, started in the KGB)
4. Defense Minister. Colonel General.
5. Prosecutor General. Police Lieutenant General (retired).

So, the National Security Council has 11 civillians and 5 officers (one of those retired). The officers are no-namers, appointed by the civillians and frequently replaced. I bet, you can find many a primary school parent council that has more soldiers on it. Well, in Spanish it would be "Junta de padres de familia".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:43:07 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.
No, just no.

What, you do not support a fascist autocrat? That is the best joke I've heard in a long time.
So the National(ist) Guard bombs and murders civilians(including members of my family) and that's considered anti-fascist?

Well, you do not mind when their opponents bomb and murder civilians en masse, because that is most certainly anti-fascist. Killing children must be a laudable activity in your eyes - as long as it is the Russians who are doing the killing.

And, of course, Massachussetts Nationalist Guard is a fascist organization - why else would they call it Massachussetts Nationalist Guard?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 10:45:25 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.
No, just no.

What, you do not support a fascist autocrat? That is the best joke I've heard in a long time.
So the National(ist) Guard bombs and murders civilians(including members of my family) and that's considered anti-fascist?

Well, you do not mind when their opponents bomb and murder civilians en masse, because that is most certainly anti-fascist. Killing children must be a laudable activity in your eyes - as long as it is the Russians who are doing the killing.

And, of course, Massachussetts Nationalist Guard is a fascist organization - why else would they call it Massachussetts Nationalist Guard?
Exactly who did the People's Republics bomb and kill except the Fascists?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:49:37 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.
No, just no.

What, you do not support a fascist autocrat? That is the best joke I've heard in a long time.
So the National(ist) Guard bombs and murders civilians(including members of my family) and that's considered anti-fascist?

Well, you do not mind when their opponents bomb and murder civilians en masse, because that is most certainly anti-fascist. Killing children must be a laudable activity in your eyes - as long as it is the Russians who are doing the killing.

And, of course, Massachussetts Nationalist Guard is a fascist organization - why else would they call it Massachussetts Nationalist Guard?
Exactly who did the People's Republics bomb and kill except the Fascists?

Hundreds (probably, thousands, by now) of civillians in their zone of operation, perhaps? Or are they shooting soap bubbles?

Of course, everyone - even a baby - is a fascist, if he dares to be on the other side of the front lines, or even if he simply happens to be killed by shelling from YOUR side wherever he is. He should not have been there - only a fascist would have himself killed by the белые и пушистые "soldiers of the People's Republics". They all deliberately die for fascist propaganda, no doubt.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 10:53:22 PM
Above Trot confirmed for being to Snowstalker what Snowstalker is to TNF.
I'm a bloody Anarcho-Syndicalist!

No, you are not. If you were, you would hate Putin, etc.  You seem to love all that is statist, imperialist, etc. There is nothing that is more anti-ancarchist then Putin´s Russia.
I do hate him, but I just prefer right wing autocracy to fascism. And hold on, imperialism? wut.

Then why do you support a fascist autocart in his invasion into a neighboring country led by a democratically elected anti-fascist government?

Imperialism is a proper word here: Putin is trying to reestablish the Empire Russia lost in 1991.
No, just no.

What, you do not support a fascist autocrat? That is the best joke I've heard in a long time.
So the National(ist) Guard bombs and murders civilians(including members of my family) and that's considered anti-fascist?

Well, you do not mind when their opponents bomb and murder civilians en masse, because that is most certainly anti-fascist. Killing children must be a laudable activity in your eyes - as long as it is the Russians who are doing the killing.

And, of course, Massachussetts Nationalist Guard is a fascist organization - why else would they call it Massachussetts Nationalist Guard?
Exactly who did the People's Republics bomb and kill except the Fascists?

Hundreds (probably, thousands, by now) of civillians in their zone of operation, perhaps? Or are they shooting soap bubbles?

Of course, everyone - even a baby - is a fascist, if he dares to be on the other side of the front lines, or even if he happens to be killed by shelling from YOUR side. He should not have been there - only a fascist would have himself killed by the белые и пушистые "soldiers of the People's Republics".
No soldier is white and fluffy but Ukraine is much worse then the DPR/LPR, but I'm not arguing anymore because I know what's going on.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:55:28 PM

No soldier is white and fluffy but Ukraine is much worse then the DPR/LPR, but I'm not arguing anymore because I know what's going on.

I have no doubt, you know. Exactly like the German citizens knew the Jews were to blame for WWII. Of course, the FUHRER said so - and he could not be wrong.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 10:57:47 PM
BTW, you also apparently know of some Junta somewher in Ukraine. When challenged the first time you provided a link to a civillian council with minor ex-oficio military participation. Would you mind exhibiting your knowledge  and actually standing by your words? Perhaps there is some other junta over there we do not know about?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on January 22, 2015, 11:04:05 PM
BTW, you also apparently know of some Junta somewher in Ukraine. When challenged the first time you provided a link to a civillian council with minor ex-oficio military participation. Would you mind exhibiting your knowledge  and actually standing by your words? Perhaps there is some other junta over there we do not know about?
Actually that I mistranslated and didn't check who was on it. The one I was talking about has the guy who looks like a pig leading it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 11:09:46 PM
BTW, you also apparently know of some Junta somewher in Ukraine. When challenged the first time you provided a link to a civillian council with minor ex-oficio military participation. Would you mind exhibiting your knowledge  and actually standing by your words? Perhaps there is some other junta over there we do not know about?
Actually that I mistranslated and didn't check who was on it. The one I was talking about has the guy who looks like a pig leading it.

Ah, ok. So not only it is not a military, but also not a council. Who cares, though? Words for you do not mean anything. They are noise waives sent in random directions for our enjoyment.

The sky is green, and that means that an elephant rabbit in Bujumbura shat a secretary general of the Capitalist Warty of Mars, would you agree?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 22, 2015, 11:11:42 PM
BTW, you also apparently know of some Junta somewher in Ukraine. When challenged the first time you provided a link to a civillian council with minor ex-oficio military participation. Would you mind exhibiting your knowledge  and actually standing by your words? Perhaps there is some other junta over there we do not know about?
Actually that I mistranslated and didn't check who was on it. The one I was talking about has the guy who looks like a pig leading it.

BTW, which language did you "mistranslate" what from? Spanish, Russian, Ukrainian? I speak the first two and understand the third pretty well, and I have no clue where the "mistranslation" could come from. Or, perhaps, you have mistranslated the word "mistranslated" as well?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: BaconBacon96 on January 23, 2015, 01:23:36 AM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.
Spheres of influence are an outdated concept IMO. Bigger nations shouldn't be entitled to harass smaller nations that happen to be nearby. If Ukraine wants to ally with the US, it should be allowed to do so without fear of invasion, just as any Central or South American nation should be allowed to ally with Russia without fear of American attack.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: MaxQue on January 23, 2015, 03:16:05 AM
Well, at least, they are vocal, so the government can watch them and lock them if they try to do sabotage during a war.

God forbid. The should either be ignored, or made fun of. Nothing more.

The key word is "if they try to do sabotage".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on January 23, 2015, 10:09:23 AM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

As a libertarian you should know the Ukraine is a sovereign nation and has the right to align itself in any way its people so choose. If you want to condemn "CIA interventions" in Latin America then I don't see you cannot object to Russia intervening in the Ukraine. And, well, hating about people caring? One would think you'd be bothered by the Ukrainian people being deprived of their liberties.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Simfan34 on January 23, 2015, 10:20:03 AM
It's a little unnerving how effective the Kremlin's propaganda has been in swaying the opinions of impressionable young Americans.

There was a good article in Politico (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/01/putin-russia-tv-113960_Page3.html#ixzz3PerWeRh0) on this a few weeks ago:

Quote
And there you have it: Russia’s opportunistic foreign policy, all wrapped up in a banana metaphor. Thus the Kremlin preaches non-intervention and sovereignty while defending Assad, yet uses the reverse position to justify the invasion of Georgia and annexation of Crimea. Thus it warns against American exceptionalism while claiming that Russia has a special mission to rule over and enlighten its “near abroad.” The Russian point of view is anything the Kremlin wants it to be.

During the conflict over Ukraine, disseminating “a Russian point of view” has increasingly meant helping Russian military and intelligence operations. For example, after Moscow-supported rebels in East Ukraine shot down a Malaysian Airlines jet in July, RT spat out a multitude of conspiracy theories (from claims that the real target of the attack was Putin’s personal plane to assertions that Ukrainian fighter jets were behind the tragedy), in order to direct attention away from the real perpetrators. Another infamous RT story featured a supposed RAND Corporation document, in which the think tank advises Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to ethnically cleanse eastern Ukraine, bomb it heavily and place locals in internment camps. The fact that the document was found on the fringe conspiracy web-site Before It’s News should have alerted any news editor as to its lack of credibility—but the story found its way onto RT. (It was subsequently removed from the news site proper (after it had been broadly viewed), but continued to be referenced by RT’s opinion contributors.

Some of these tricks smack of an updated model of Active Measures, the Soviet era KGB-run disinformation and psychological warfare department designed to confuse and disorganize the West. But if Soviet measures went to great lengths to make their forgeries look convincing, now the Kremlin doesn’t seem to care if it is caught: The aim is to confuse rather than convince, to trash the information space so the audience gives up looking for any truth amid the chaos.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on January 23, 2015, 04:33:02 PM
Murica!'s posts are a perfect example of what we're talking about. The utter delusion and outright refusal to have any kind of objectivity. Literally taking everything Russia says as gospel and denying any information to the contrary.

It's like the people in the 1930's who insisted that Germany had the right to claim the Sudetenland and that the Czechs were "oppressing Germans".

I can hear him now:

"Hitler and Germany are just trying to save their people from the yoke of Anglo-French Imperialism!"

"The Czechs are massacring Germans! I'm not arguing anymore because I know what's going on!"


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: jaichind on January 23, 2015, 04:42:06 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

As a libertarian you should know the Ukraine is a sovereign nation and has the right to align itself in any way its people so choose. If you want to condemn "CIA interventions" in Latin America then I don't see you cannot object to Russia intervening in the Ukraine. And, well, hating about people caring? One would think you'd be bothered by the Ukrainian people being deprived of their liberties.

I view Crimea 2014 the same as Kosovo 1998.  I am very negative on both events and in an equal way.  I think both the West and Russia are hypocritical when they criticize each other for these two events before hold themselves accountable for their on actions on the other.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on January 23, 2015, 05:56:36 PM
As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

As a libertarian you should know the Ukraine is a sovereign nation and has the right to align itself in any way its people so choose. If you want to condemn "CIA interventions" in Latin America then I don't see you cannot object to Russia intervening in the Ukraine. And, well, hating about people caring? One would think you'd be bothered by the Ukrainian people being deprived of their liberties.

I view Crimea 2014 the same as Kosovo 1998.  I am very negative on both events and in an equal way.  I think both the West and Russia are hypocritical when they criticize each other for these two events before hold themselves accountable for their on actions on the other.

There is a fundamental difference, though. In fact, there is pretty much nothing in common between the situations.

Before 1998 Kosovo spent almost a decade in a limbo, with the bulk of the population completely disenfranchized and marginalized, not participating in economic, political or social life of the province.  For much of that time the community adhered to its leaders´ call for peaceful civil disobedience - which got them exactly nowhere. Then, when some hotheads dropped the peaceful from their disobedience, Serbian government responded with a massive ethnic cleansing campaign, creating a staggering refugee flow. At this point, an international force was brought in. However, none of the contributors to the force had any designs on any territory (or really wanted to be there in the first place - they had spent 10 years ignoring the problem as much as they could). Nor was the neighboring country, with ethnically similar population, allowed to benefit in any way from what was happening (except in as much as it was spared a nightmare of a refugee crisis). Afterwards, there was a long - though, ultimately unsuccessful - process of negotiations, culminating in a freshly elected legislature pronouncing for independence.

In contrast, Crimea had spent 23 years enjoying the widest autnomy, being the only Ukrainian province without an appointed governor (the PM of Crimea was throughout this time appointed by the locally elected legislature). Unlike in Kosovo, where all public Albanian schools had been closed, Simferopol (Crimean capital) had exactly one Ukrainian-language school - every single other schoold taught in Russian. Throughout this period in regular free elections Crimeans voted en masse for parties, which frequently formed governments in Kiev. At the same time, parties and candidates advocating secession got negligible numbers of votes. Then, with the entire peninsula completely free of any civil or military disturbance, troops from a neighboring country (in unmarked uniforms) entered the territory, expelled and/or intimidated a substantial number of local legislators, had the rump legislature designate as local leaders those same loser sessessionist candidates and call for a referendum on joining the neighboring country. In the referendum there was no option allowed to vote for the status quo, nor was, apparently, the vote counted at all (the numbers published were clearly fake). Afterwards the country was annexed to the troop-providing neighbor - only at which point the neighbor acknowledged that it did send the troops.

Anybody sees any similarities?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on January 24, 2015, 01:59:15 PM
It looks like they're attacking Mariupol now.

Meanwhile, apparently the sanctions passed by the E.U. last year are not dependent on the situation on the ground but automatically expire after 1 year? No wonder Putin is so confident... he just has to get Hungary with him, and all this with no real costs.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on February 12, 2015, 03:36:26 PM
New ceasefire (brokered by Merkel and Hollande) as starting point for peace plan.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/12/ukraine-ceasefire-european-leaders-sceptical-peace-plan-will-work (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/12/ukraine-ceasefire-european-leaders-sceptical-peace-plan-will-work)


"The main points of the agreement

    Ceasefire to begin at 00.00am local time on 15 February
    Heavy weapons withdrawn in a two week period starting from 17 February
    Amnesty for prisoners involved in fighting
    Withdrawal of all foreign militias from Ukrainian territory and the disarmament of all illegal groups
    Lifting of restrictions in rebel areas of Ukraine
    Decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of 2015
    Ukrainian control of the border with Russia by the end of 2015

The participants also agreed to attend regular meetings ​​to ensure the fulfilment of the ​​agreements, ​a Russian-distributed document said."


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on February 12, 2015, 03:58:27 PM
Hopefully no one fu**s this up.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 12, 2015, 04:43:37 PM

Well, if we are lucky, we will have a month or two of relatively little shooting. May be, if we are very lucky, it will even be three months, but I have hard time believing it.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 12, 2015, 09:58:27 PM
Anybody know the reason for the fist fight today between the Fatherland MP and the Self Reliance MP?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on February 12, 2015, 10:06:37 PM
Anybody know the reason for the fist fight today between the Fatherland MP and the Self Reliance MP?
Ukrainian politics, same as any brawl in the Rada.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 12, 2015, 10:15:22 PM
Well in the past fights were always pro-Russian vs. pro-Western.

This time it's two pro-Western parties.

I've heard that it's over an anti-corruption bill but nothing more than that. If I had to guess, I would guess that the Fatherland party is against it?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Murica! on February 12, 2015, 10:26:08 PM
Well in the past fights were always pro-Russian vs. pro-Western.

This time it's two pro-Western parties.

I've heard that it's over an anti-corruption bill but nothing more than that. If I had to guess, I would guess that the Fatherland party is against it?
This really isn't true about Self Reliance, though they aren't fascists or far-rightists they are quite nationalist and not really "pro-western" more "anti-Russian".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on February 13, 2015, 07:19:23 PM
Looks like they're still fighting out there.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on February 13, 2015, 07:22:14 PM
Looks like they're still fighting out there.

"Ceasefire to begin at 00.00am local time on 15 February"


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2015, 06:29:34 AM
Looks like Russian backed rebels are now inside the encircled key railway junction of Debaltseve.  If so then the Ukrainian military is looking at a major military defeat with the possible loss of thousands of possibility encircled troops (Ukraine military denied they are encircled although the Russian backed rebels claim they are) 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on February 17, 2015, 05:53:22 PM
It's time to start actually confronting Russia not just on this, but in total. Our long-term objective needs to be the destruction of the Putin regime and Ultra-Nationalism in Russia outright. The problem with 1991 was that there was no "De-Sovietization". Just internal political collapse and the establishment of Wiemar Russia. It was like 1918 all over again. And now we see the (predictable) outcome.

It's time for a new Fulton speech. We need to recognize that there is a global Russian threat that intends to undermine the current world order in favor of their Eurasianist agenda. This threat has military, economic, social, and political dimensions to it. Everything from Gazprom, the Russian mafia, and RT news network. If not publicly then internally we need to accept that these entities and those like them are enemy agencies in the new Cold War, and treat them as such.

We need to accept that the Putin regime is a neo-fascist state that is inherently a threat to the pace, freedom and stability of the entire world. Including it's own citizens. The struggle is upon us, and the free nations of the world need to unite and answer the call.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 17, 2015, 06:08:02 PM
Russia is a great power with enough nuclear weapons to leave USA as smoldering glass covered wasteland. Yes it would be nice if we could treat it as a defeated enemy or some Middle Eastern or third world sh**thole. We can't and we should accept that and look into how we need to deal with Russia (like remobilise).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on February 17, 2015, 06:19:04 PM
Russia is a great power with enough nuclear weapons to leave USA as smoldering glass covered wasteland. Yes it would be nice if we could treat it as a defeated enemy or some Middle Eastern or third world sh**thole. We can't and we should accept that and look into how we need to deal with Russia (like remobilise).

I never said we should initiate a shooting war with Russia. Containment followed by RollBack should be the policy. But my main point was hat we should treat this as the threat it actually is.

The Soviet Union had a powerful nuclear arsenal too, but that didn't stop us from doing what it took to win.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 17, 2015, 06:30:39 PM
Russia is a great power with enough nuclear weapons to leave USA as smoldering glass covered wasteland. Yes it would be nice if we could treat it as a defeated enemy or some Middle Eastern or third world sh**thole. We can't and we should accept that and look into how we need to deal with Russia (like remobilise).

I never said we should initiate a shooting war with Russia. Containment followed by RollBack should be the policy. But my main point was hat we should treat this as the threat it actually is.

The Soviet Union had a powerful nuclear arsenal too, but that didn't stop us from doing what it took to win.
'

USA and the rest of NATO did nothing to win, we just contained USSR until it collapsed under it own wrong economical policies, public opposition and demographic change. That's the logical policy to follow with Russia, to contain it and we have succesful done so, even if wasn't completely aware of it, with the expansion of NATO and EU to the east. Now Russia have lost one of its most important client states and instead they have gotten Crimea and a pathetic puppet in eastern Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 08:33:04 PM
Russia is a great power with enough nuclear weapons to leave USA as smoldering glass covered wasteland. Yes it would be nice if we could treat it as a defeated enemy or some Middle Eastern or third world sh**thole. We can't and we should accept that and look into how we need to deal with Russia (like remobilise).

I never said we should initiate a shooting war with Russia. Containment followed by RollBack should be the policy. But my main point was hat we should treat this as the threat it actually is.

The Soviet Union had a powerful nuclear arsenal too, but that didn't stop us from doing what it took to win.
'

USA and the rest of NATO did nothing to win, we just contained USSR until it collapsed under it own wrong economical policies, public opposition and demographic change. That's the logical policy to follow with Russia, to contain it and we have succesful done so, even if wasn't completely aware of it, with the expansion of NATO and EU to the east. Now Russia have lost one of its most important client states and instead they have gotten Crimea and a pathetic puppet in eastern Ukraine.

Well, containment should be firmer. The last time I checked Russian trains still could get to Kaliningrad.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 17, 2015, 08:50:26 PM
Well, containment should be firmer. The last time I checked Russian trains still could get to Kaliningrad.

Do you really want a Kaliningrad Airlift?

Besides, until Europe has a replacement for Russian natural gas in place, there's not much more that will be done.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 09:07:31 PM
Well, containment should be firmer. The last time I checked Russian trains still could get to Kaliningrad.

Do you really want a Kaliningrad Airlift?


Yes, I do. It costs money. And the money spent on Kaliningrad Airlift is not spent elsewhere.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 09:08:27 PM
Besides, until Europe has a replacement for Russian natural gas in place, there's not much more that will be done.

Energy prices are at record low. And, of course, Russia that does not sell gas will not be able to finance the Kaliningrad Airlift.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Cory on February 17, 2015, 09:12:20 PM
Do you really want a Kaliningrad Airlift?

Yes, I do. It costs money. And the money spent on Kaliningrad Airlift is not spent elsewhere.

Perfect. Exactly the mentality I think we should exercise in regards to Russia.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 09:32:10 PM
There are a few other things that could be done. Sanction every airline that flies into Crimea (and every airport that receives flights from Crimea). Make the western-oriented states that have not joined in join the sanctions (South Korea, where are you? BTW, when Mr. Netaniyahu comes visiting, as I've heard he is planning, he should get an earfull as well - that would help Speaker Boehner get rid of the charges he cares more about a foreign government, than about his own). Run a few big exercises with the Japanese near the Kuril islands. Invite President Nazarbayev for a State Visit to the US (a speech to Congress would add an extra nice touch).  Have as many presidents and prime ministers as possible attend the V-E Day parade in Kiev - Ukraine is as much as successor to the USSR here as Russia is.  

Actually, even the Greeks have a role to play: they have been talking about asking Russia for money. Great! Have them call the Russian bluff - a few billion USD that Russia lends them would still disappear in the oncoming mess, but would nicely deplete the Russian coffers. Even better, if only one could find a way to have Russia finance the Maduro government: that is a bottomless pit that should be refilled as intensively as possible.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on February 17, 2015, 10:09:04 PM
There is talk about Putin moving on to Kazakhstan once he is finished subjugating Ukraine.   


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 10:23:07 PM
There is talk about Putin moving on to Kazakhstan once he is finished subjugating Ukraine.   

A few US bases ranged around Astana, if President Nazarbayev can be persuaded of that, could be useful in that respect.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on February 17, 2015, 10:32:56 PM
There is talk about Putin moving on to Kazakhstan once he is finished subjugating Ukraine.  

A few US bases ranged around Astana, if President Nazarbayev can be persuaded of that, could be useful in that respect.

Kazakhstan is a case where a border revision would seem reasonable. Unlike Ukraine the cultural difference is huge and the Russians are concentrated near the border.

()


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Frodo on February 17, 2015, 10:42:41 PM
Do bear in mind that Putin also wants the Baikonur Cosmodrome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baikonur_Cosmodrome) back, along with bringing the Russian population in Kazakhstan back into the fold. 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 11:13:40 PM
There is talk about Putin moving on to Kazakhstan once he is finished subjugating Ukraine.  

A few US bases ranged around Astana, if President Nazarbayev can be persuaded of that, could be useful in that respect.

Kazakhstan is a case where a border revision would seem reasonable. Unlike Ukraine the cultural difference is huge and the Russians are concentrated near the border.

()

It would be also nice if you noted where the capital is. Furthermore, ane ethnic map of adjoining parts of Bashkortostan and (a bit further afield) Tatarstan, where "the cultural differerence" is quite similar. Perhaps, that would suggest you why, how should we put it mildly, this might not be any easy solution to implement.

BTW, a lot of the Slavs are... you guessed it: Ukrainian.

Perhaps, this is a better map to peruse:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Central_Asia_Ethnic_en.svg

One thing, though, is certain: there will be no infiltration of "polite green men": Mr. Nazarbayev can be counted on killing those off before they say: "howdy".


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 11:14:44 PM
Do bear in mind that Putin also wants the Baikonur Cosmodrome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baikonur_Cosmodrome) back, along with bringing the Russian population in Kazakhstan back into the fold. 

What about the Ukrainian population of Kazakhstan?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: bgwah on February 17, 2015, 11:32:54 PM
It would be also nice if you noted where the capital is.

And why was the capital moved there? :)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 17, 2015, 11:39:46 PM
It would be also nice if you noted where the capital is.

And why was the capital moved there? :)

Well, if you move your capital to a place called the "white grave" you'd better have a reason. It is not like these guys have never suspected that Russia may be somewhat prone to conquest. Unlike many here, Kazakhs tend to speak and read Russian, so they know that in Russia they still clamor not merely for the "Southern Siberia" but also for the good old Russian town of Verny (known to most of you as Almaty). So, rather than waiting for the Russians down South, they decided to strengthen their presence in the North. Would you blame them?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2015, 08:03:30 AM
Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 18, 2015, 10:24:27 AM
There are a few other things that could be done. Sanction every airline that flies into Crimea (and every airport that receives flights from Crimea). Make the western-oriented states that have not joined in join the sanctions (South Korea, where are you? BTW, when Mr. Netaniyahu comes visiting, as I've heard he is planning, he should get an earfull as well - that would help Speaker Boehner get rid of the charges he cares more about a foreign government, than about his own). Run a few big exercises with the Japanese near the Kuril islands. Invite President Nazarbayev for a State Visit to the US (a speech to Congress would add an extra nice touch).  Have as many presidents and prime ministers as possible attend the V-E Day parade in Kiev - Ukraine is as much as successor to the USSR here as Russia is.

This would backfire immensely from a tactical standpoint. The Putin government collapsing (if that is the intended result of your sanction/ostracization proposals) would not result in a liberal Russia, but an ultranationalist and presumably more trigger-happy Russia--that is, the NSDAP to Putin's DNVP.

(If I haven't already, I do apologize for my Putin apologism last year)


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 18, 2015, 11:42:11 AM
There are a few other things that could be done. Sanction every airline that flies into Crimea (and every airport that receives flights from Crimea). Make the western-oriented states that have not joined in join the sanctions (South Korea, where are you? BTW, when Mr. Netaniyahu comes visiting, as I've heard he is planning, he should get an earfull as well - that would help Speaker Boehner get rid of the charges he cares more about a foreign government, than about his own). Run a few big exercises with the Japanese near the Kuril islands. Invite President Nazarbayev for a State Visit to the US (a speech to Congress would add an extra nice touch).  Have as many presidents and prime ministers as possible attend the V-E Day parade in Kiev - Ukraine is as much as successor to the USSR here as Russia is.

This would backfire immensely from a tactical standpoint. The Putin government collapsing (if that is the intended result of your sanction/ostracization proposals) would not result in a liberal Russia, but an ultranationalist and presumably more trigger-happy Russia--that is, the NSDAP to Putin's DNVP.

(If I haven't already, I do apologize for my Putin apologism last year)

Who is talking about making the government collapse? Now, I would love that - but I am. from Russia, I care anout that country. From outsider standpoint it is sufficient that Putin government has little money to engage in mischief.

Nobody knows what will emerge in Russia post-Putin. Public politics is dead there: and public propaganda is in an overdrive. Russian nastyness is emphasized for all to observe. This, of course, is by design: the regime likes pretending to be "Russia's greatest European". The confident predictions of disaster post-Putin are no more grounded in reality than optimistic forecast of immediate victory of liberal democracy.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 18, 2015, 02:37:13 PM
Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.

But the Minsk agreements are "very much alive", of course.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2015, 03:47:12 PM
Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.

But the Minsk agreements are "very much alive", of course.

One thing is is interesting is that the Ukrainian army which was trapped in Debaltseve did break out (or at least most of them) and mostly unopposed by the rebels who seems to have managed to at least place the road out under artillery fire if not outright occupation.   This act is actually a signal from the rebels to the Kiev regime that it values the city more than the destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces its which in turn signals goals are limited to trying to create viable mini-state and not the destruction of the current regime in Kiev.  This actually creates some space for possible peace and compromise in the future when it comes to a political settlement of this conflict.  


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 18, 2015, 07:59:18 PM
Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.

But the Minsk agreements are "very much alive", of course.

One thing is is interesting is that the Ukrainian army which was trapped in Debaltseve did break out (or at least most of them) and mostly unopposed by the rebels who seems to have managed to at least place the road out under artillery fire if not outright occupation.   This act is actually a signal from the rebels to the Kiev regime that it values the city more than the destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces its which in turn signals goals are limited to trying to create viable mini-state and not the destruction of the current regime in Kiev.  This actually creates some space for possible peace and compromise in the future when it comes to a political settlement of this conflict.  

Destruction of military forces was a difficult strategy for the rebels to implement in this case. Ukraine only had a few thousand troops in the salient - only a small part of its force. An attempt to "destroy" them would result in major losses on the rebel side: these were still well-armed and would fight for their lives. It is far from clear that the rebel casualties would be much - if at all - smaller in that case. And the rebel draft base - unless you count the Russian volunteers and "volunteers" is much smaller than that of Ukraine (the occupied area even in the best of times had, may be, 4 mln. people, of which almost half - including most of the young men - has left; Ukraine is a country of over 40 mln people). So, human casualties are much harder for the rebels to replace (except, by getting people from Russia itself, of course: which is, in fact, what has sustained the war).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 19, 2015, 09:00:18 AM
Russia is a great power with enough nuclear weapons to leave USA as smoldering glass covered wasteland. Yes it would be nice if we could treat it as a defeated enemy or some Middle Eastern or third world sh**thole. We can't and we should accept that and look into how we need to deal with Russia (like remobilise).

I never said we should initiate a shooting war with Russia. Containment followed by RollBack should be the policy. But my main point was hat we should treat this as the threat it actually is.

The Soviet Union had a powerful nuclear arsenal too, but that didn't stop us from doing what it took to win.
'

USA and the rest of NATO did nothing to win, we just contained USSR until it collapsed under it own wrong economical policies, public opposition and demographic change. That's the logical policy to follow with Russia, to contain it and we have succesful done so, even if wasn't completely aware of it, with the expansion of NATO and EU to the east. Now Russia have lost one of its most important client states and instead they have gotten Crimea and a pathetic puppet in eastern Ukraine.

Well, containment should be firmer. The last time I checked Russian trains still could get to Kaliningrad.

Yes they can, just as West German trains could get to Berlin under the Cold War and the Baltic and Black Sea wasn't closed from our side. Closing down the land connection between Kaliningrad and core Russia would serve no purpose, it would not make Russia weaker, it would not make them back down,it would just cost them marginal to set up a ferry between it and Petrograd. The only thing it would do would be to give a excuse to Putin and Russia apoligists around the world. So we're very sorry we don't do counterproductive dickwaving.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 19, 2015, 09:33:52 AM
ingemann has made some legitimate points IMO.

Russia is on the defensive... or at least that's how Putin tends to see it. Since February 2014, Ukraine has a pro-Western government and it may never have a pro-Russian government again in the future. Invading Crimea and Donbass was a mere attempt at cutting the losses. From a Russian point of view, it's damage control.

Not that I agree with Russia's actions. I do think that they act like a bunch of paranoid jackasses. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2015, 10:05:00 AM
Putin is suffering from the same kind of trauma that Hitler suffered from, just a bit different. Hitler had a WW1 trauma (personally as a soldier, and more universally with Germany getting destroyed and blamed and footed with the bills).

Putin still suffers a Cold War trauma (also personally => he was a spy, and more universally: Russia got its ass kicked and thrown backwards economically).

Both Hitler and Putin then and now want to compensate it by "making their country strong" and by occupying further land "for the needs of our people".

Both the people of Russia and Nazi Austro-Germany also have/had unwavering and blind trust in their Führer (Hitler/Putin).

Both peoples are also similarly xenophobic and fascist.

As you can see, there are some troubling similarities between them.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on February 19, 2015, 10:08:26 AM
Putin is suffering from the same kind of trauma that Hitler suffered from, just a bit different. Hitler had a WW1 trauma (personally as a soldier, and more universally with Germany getting destroyed and blamed and footed with the bills).

Putin still suffers a Cold War trauma (also personally => he was a spy, and more universally: Russia got its ass kicked and thrown backwards economically).

Both Hitler and Putin then and now want to compensate it by "making their country strong" and by occupying further land "for the needs of our people".

Both the people of Russia and Nazi Austro-Germany also have/had unwavering and blind trust in their Führer (Hitler/Putin).

Both peoples are also similarly xenophobic and fascist.

As you can see, there are some troubling similarities between them.

LOL

Otherwise: One more similarity is that the war/"war" ended with significant German/Russian minorities left in neighbouring countries. In the Soviet case that was an unnecessary error.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 19, 2015, 10:15:48 AM
ingemann has made some legitimate points IMO.

Russia is on the defensive... or at least that's how Putin tends to see it. Since February 2014, Ukraine has a pro-Western government and it may never have a pro-Russian government again in the future. Invading Crimea and Donbass was a mere attempt at cutting the losses. From a Russian point of view, it's damage control.

Exactly if took a realpolitik perspective, USA and EU have gotten 80% of Ukraine with almost no cost. While Russia are destroying their economy and their careful net of alliance to keep the last 20% in their orbit.

Quote
Not that I agree with Russia's actions. I do think that they act like a bunch of paranoid jackasses. :P

I think ag have some interesting points, but they're less interesting than him, he more or less show us how the Russian think just the opposite way, if they don't stop us at Donbass, next we will push into Russia, until we take Moscow.
Russia have also shown the cost of thinking that way:
If Putin had just ignored the revolution in Ukraine, a few year down the road a new pro-Russian government would have arisen as the anti-Russian alliance collapsed. But now he has removed millions of pro-Russian voters from the Ukrainian electorate. Now Russia damage control have lost 80% of Ukraine permanent.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on February 19, 2015, 10:26:37 AM
Putin has been on the offensive since the Second Chechen War (1999-2002). If the West was really as anti-Russian as the paranoid Putin fanatics claim, the human rights abuses committed there would have been a much bigger problem for Putin. The next stage was Georgia (2008), a small state outside of Europe with existing de facto independent puppet states within it. Ukraine (2014-15) is the latest stage, a large state within Europe, with no previous conflict before this. It is a pattern of steady escalation in his 15 year career, with marked acceleration recently. But I don't think the pattern has ever changed.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: politicus on February 19, 2015, 10:38:17 AM
The next stage was Georgia (2008), a small state outside of Europe

No.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 19, 2015, 10:48:05 AM
Putin has been on the offensive since the Second Chechen War (1999-2002). If the West was really as anti-Russian as the paranoid Putin fanatics claim, the human rights abuses committed there would have been a much bigger problem for Putin. The next stage was Georgia (2008), a small state outside of Europe with existing de facto independent puppet states within it. Ukraine (2014-15) is the latest stage, a large state within Europe, with no previous conflict before this. It is a pattern of steady escalation in his 15 year career, with marked acceleration recently. But I don't think the pattern has ever changed.

Yes that's sounds impressive, if you completely ignore the history behind the two earlier war. Let's remember that Chechnya beside being a earlier version of IS was negotiate for independence from Russia and was close to get it, before the geniuses decided to invade Dagestan and of course at the same there was a terror campaign in Russia which the Chechen was blamed for (it's believed it wasn't a false flag operation, but honestly we don't know for sure).

As for South Ossetian it was a Russian puppet set up under Jeltsin, whose autonomy Georgia decided to end. Which was a major reason we decided to ignore that war.

The Russian conflicts while not acceptable have been purely reactive to outside pressure, not expansionistic.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on February 19, 2015, 11:00:21 AM
Putin has been on the offensive since the Second Chechen War (1999-2002). If the West was really as anti-Russian as the paranoid Putin fanatics claim, the human rights abuses committed there would have been a much bigger problem for Putin. The next stage was Georgia (2008), a small state outside of Europe with existing de facto independent puppet states within it. Ukraine (2014-15) is the latest stage, a large state within Europe, with no previous conflict before this. It is a pattern of steady escalation in his 15 year career, with marked acceleration recently. But I don't think the pattern has ever changed.

Yes that's sounds impressive, if you completely ignore the history behind the two earlier war. Let's remember that Chechnya beside being a earlier version of IS was negotiate for independence from Russia and was close to get it, before the geniuses decided to invade Dagestan and of course at the same there was a terror campaign in Russia which the Chechen was blamed for (it's believed it wasn't a false flag operation, but honestly we don't know for sure).

As for South Ossetian it was a Russian puppet set up under Jeltsin, whose autonomy Georgia decided to end. Which was a major reason we decided to ignore that war.

The Russian conflicts while not acceptable have been purely reactive to outside pressure, not expansionistic.


Chechen independence movement was hardly IS. It started as a rebel movement of an ethnic minority seeking political independence... precisely what Putin claims the Ukrainian rebels currently are. It didn't become radicalized until later. South Ossetia has never been recognized as an independent state, and Russia ended the war with military bases where it previously did not have them, so the result was expansionist, not purely defensive.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 19, 2015, 11:42:43 AM
Putin has been on the offensive since the Second Chechen War (1999-2002). If the West was really as anti-Russian as the paranoid Putin fanatics claim, the human rights abuses committed there would have been a much bigger problem for Putin. The next stage was Georgia (2008), a small state outside of Europe with existing de facto independent puppet states within it. Ukraine (2014-15) is the latest stage, a large state within Europe, with no previous conflict before this. It is a pattern of steady escalation in his 15 year career, with marked acceleration recently. But I don't think the pattern has ever changed.

Yes that's sounds impressive, if you completely ignore the history behind the two earlier war. Let's remember that Chechnya beside being a earlier version of IS was negotiate for independence from Russia and was close to get it, before the geniuses decided to invade Dagestan and of course at the same there was a terror campaign in Russia which the Chechen was blamed for (it's believed it wasn't a false flag operation, but honestly we don't know for sure).

As for South Ossetian it was a Russian puppet set up under Jeltsin, whose autonomy Georgia decided to end. Which was a major reason we decided to ignore that war.

The Russian conflicts while not acceptable have been purely reactive to outside pressure, not expansionistic.


Chechen independence movement was hardly IS. It started as a rebel movement of an ethnic minority seeking political independence...precisely what Putin claims the Ukrainian rebels currently are.

I would have been a lot more impressed with these claims, if we had seen how their state work between the 1st and 2nd war. Me I have a hard time having sympathy for people practicing and a state legalising slavery and bride stealing, and of course the fact that while the terror attacks can be claimed to have been false flag, their invasions of the neighbouring republics was something which we have clear historical evidence for. For some reason I fail to see how it was attempt

So you may celebrate the brave Chechen Muhadjins fight against the Russians, I on the other hand prefer a world without slavers.

Quote
  It didn't become radicalized until later. South Ossetia has never been recognized as an independent state, and Russia ended the war with military bases where it previously did not have them, so the result was expansionist, not purely defensive.

I said reactive not defensive wars.

Plus this is why I hate you people sometimes, you move the argument so far out that you think other people defend something because they ask you to deal with reality.

Man1: "Saddam is a cannibal"
Man2: "No he's not"
Man1: "So you defend Saddam"


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Beet on February 19, 2015, 12:05:03 PM
That's fair enough, I'll admit that all of these wars have had some reactive element to them from Russia's part. You were not defending the wars, you just pointed out that they didn't come out of nowhere. You're right in that.

The Chechen nationalists were undoubtedly horrible, but they were not IS. The government & most people who supported it were secular, but the government was too weak to control the Islamists. It was the latter that attacked Dagestan. The Chechen "government" offered Russia to crack down on the Islamists, but it was refused and a full scale invasion launched instead. In any case, I never said I supported the "brave Chechen Muhadjins". It is well known that both sides committed the worst atrocities in that war.

Putin's real problem is that he's too old. He still sees things from the Cold War KGB mentality which he never left behind. Otherwise, why would he even care that Ukraine is pro-Western? In his mind, pro-Western = anti-Russian (to be fair many others have this mentality too, but Putin only reinforces it).


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 19, 2015, 12:32:36 PM
That's fair enough, I'll admit that all of these wars have had some reactive element to them from Russia's part. You were not defending the wars, you just pointed out that they didn't come out of nowhere. You're right in that.

The Chechen nationalists were undoubtedly horrible, but they were not IS. The government & most people who supported it were secular, but the government was too weak to control the Islamists. It was the latter that attacked Dagestan. The Chechen "government" offered Russia to crack down on the Islamists, but it was refused and a full scale invasion launched instead. In any case, I never said I supported the "brave Chechen Muhadjins". It is well known that both sides committed the worst atrocities in that war.

Putin's real problem is that he's too old. He still sees things from the Cold War KGB mentality which he never left behind. Otherwise, why would he even care that Ukraine is pro-Western? In his mind, pro-Western = anti-Russian (to be fair many others have this mentality too, but Putin only reinforces it).

I agree you're right, Putin should have retired last election. It would have been better for Russia and it would have a whole lot better for his legacy.

Through I do get why he care that Ukraine is pro-western. Putin goal have been to semi-recreate USSR/the Russian Empire as the Eurasian Union, and without Ukraine that doesn't make a lot of sense.
 


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 19, 2015, 01:12:23 PM
To extend the Nazi analogy, if Putin is Hitler and Russia is Germany then Putin sees the Ukraine as his Austria despite not having been born there.  I do wonder why he didn't go after the Rhineland (Belarus) first tho.  It would have made this analogy stronger.  (Or was Crimea the Rhineland?)  Will Kazakhstan end up being Czechoslovakia or Poland?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 19, 2015, 02:01:59 PM
Putin is suffering from the same kind of trauma that Hitler suffered from, just a bit different. Hitler had a WW1 trauma (personally as a soldier, and more universally with Germany getting destroyed and blamed and footed with the bills).

Putin still suffers a Cold War trauma (also personally => he was a spy, and more universally: Russia got its ass kicked and thrown backwards economically).

Both Hitler and Putin then and now want to compensate it by "making their country strong" and by occupying further land "for the needs of our people".

Both the people of Russia and Nazi Austro-Germany also have/had unwavering and blind trust in their Führer (Hitler/Putin).

Both peoples are also similarly xenophobic and fascist.

As you can see, there are some troubling similarities between them.

LOL

Otherwise: One more similarity is that the war/"war" ended with significant German/Russian minorities left in neighbouring countries. In the Soviet case that was an unnecessary error.

Are you telling me you would prefer a massive deportation of Russians in 1991? So kind of you.

It would still not work, at least for Ukraine: you would have to separate millions of families. There is a continuum of self-identifications there. And, while there is no doubt in Lviv or Vologda (or even in Moscow or Kiev), there is a reason the war in Donbass is so violent now. Perhaps you are unaware, but the Ukrainian draft is failing in the West - Halicians do not care about dying for Donetsk. The bulk of the crack Ukrainian units (including the most nationalistic ones) are easterners, many from Donetsk itself - they are fighting for their homes. And, while it is true that Russia has registered hundreds of thousands of refugees from Donetsk - Ukraine by now has got over a million who fled West.

Either not following the 1991 administrative borders or engaging in deportations (India partition style) would have resulted in, conservatively, millions dead - there and then. Keep that in mind, please.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 19, 2015, 02:02:45 PM
That's fair enough, I'll admit that all of these wars have had some reactive element to them from Russia's part. You were not defending the wars, you just pointed out that they didn't come out of nowhere. You're right in that.

The Chechen nationalists were undoubtedly horrible, but they were not IS. The government & most people who supported it were secular, but the government was too weak to control the Islamists. It was the latter that attacked Dagestan. The Chechen "government" offered Russia to crack down on the Islamists, but it was refused and a full scale invasion launched instead. In any case, I never said I supported the "brave Chechen Muhadjins". It is well known that both sides committed the worst atrocities in that war.

Putin's real problem is that he's too old. He still sees things from the Cold War KGB mentality which he never left behind. Otherwise, why would he even care that Ukraine is pro-Western? In his mind, pro-Western = anti-Russian (to be fair many others have this mentality too, but Putin only reinforces it).

I agree you're right, Putin should have retired last election. It would have been better for Russia and it would have a whole lot better for his legacy.


Russia has not had a proper presidential election since 2000. Are you suggesting he should not have run the first time?


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on February 19, 2015, 02:35:06 PM
I always wondered what a Sjuganow government would have looked like.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 19, 2015, 03:47:24 PM
I always wondered what a Sjuganow government would have looked like.

Think Maduro, but with less charisma.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ingemann on February 19, 2015, 04:16:44 PM
That's fair enough, I'll admit that all of these wars have had some reactive element to them from Russia's part. You were not defending the wars, you just pointed out that they didn't come out of nowhere. You're right in that.

The Chechen nationalists were undoubtedly horrible, but they were not IS. The government & most people who supported it were secular, but the government was too weak to control the Islamists. It was the latter that attacked Dagestan. The Chechen "government" offered Russia to crack down on the Islamists, but it was refused and a full scale invasion launched instead. In any case, I never said I supported the "brave Chechen Muhadjins". It is well known that both sides committed the worst atrocities in that war.

Putin's real problem is that he's too old. He still sees things from the Cold War KGB mentality which he never left behind. Otherwise, why would he even care that Ukraine is pro-Western? In his mind, pro-Western = anti-Russian (to be fair many others have this mentality too, but Putin only reinforces it).

I agree you're right, Putin should have retired last election. It would have been better for Russia and it would have a whole lot better for his legacy.


Russia has not had a proper presidential election since 2000. Are you suggesting he should not have run the first time?

I suggested that he should have let his crony (Dmitry Medvedev) stay president in 2012 and he should have retired to a mansion on the Black Sea coast, more or less like Yeltsin did.


Title: Re: Ukraine Crisis
Post by: ag on February 19, 2015, 07:30:16 PM
That's fair enough, I'll admit that all of these wars have had some reactive element to them from Russia's part. You were not defending the wars, you just pointed out that they didn't come out of nowhere. You're right in that.

The Chechen nationalists were undoubtedly horrible, but they were not IS. The government & most people who supported it were secular, but the government was too weak to control the Islamists. It was the latter that attacked Dagestan. The Chechen "government" offered Russia to crack down on the Islamists, but it was refused and a full scale invasion launched instead. In any case, I never said I supported the "brave Chechen Muhadjins". It is well known that both sides committed the worst atrocities in that war.

Putin's real problem is that he's too old. He still sees things from the Cold War KGB mentality which he never left behind. Otherwise, why would he even care that Ukraine is pro-Western? In his mind, pro-Western = anti-Russian (to be fair many others have this mentality too, but Putin only reinforces it).

I agree you're right, Putin should have retired last election. It would have been better for Russia and it would have a whole lot better for his legacy.


Russia has not had a proper presidential election since 2000. Are you suggesting he should not have run the first time?

I suggested that he should have let his crony (Dmitry Medvedev) stay president in 2012 and he should have retired to a mansion on the Black Sea coast, more or less like Yeltsin did.

I know what you WANTED to suggest. But you suggested something quite different.

He cannot retire. He will be eaten alive if he does. Medvedev was in office only because Putin was in power. In order for Medvedev to be in power, he would have to kill Putin. Doubt he is capable of that, so, most likely, he would himself be killed and replaced by somebody who would have to kill Putin to stay alive. This is the logic of the house that Putin built.