Talk Elections

So we don't need to create a thread all the time if a poll pops up ...

QUINNIPIAC:

1. If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate in your district?

38-37 GOP

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

41-53 disapprove

7. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

46-42 GOP

8. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

46-44 GOP

From January 4 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,487 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1993

Odd turn of events when Rasmussen favors the Dems. I'm curious as to whether or not they're becoming a Democratic-leaning outlier. There's a 10 point gap between the approval ratings in Gallup and Rasmussen.

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Rasmussen Reports

1. Generic Congressional Ballot (January 6th-12th)

41-37 Democrats

2. Obama Approval Rating

50-49 Approve (January 15th)

There change in leanings seems to connected to Scotty leaving.

Rasmussen: D+6

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

#Dominating
#ExcellentNews

ABC/WaPo: Rs leads 46-45. (http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1158a1Obamaand2014Politics.pdf)

I don't understand how Rassy has Hagan down 7 but also has Democrats leading 42-37 on the generic ballot. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot)

Over-correction maybe?

PPP: 42-40 R. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/americans-strongly-back-broncos.html)

Big swing for Rasmussen; Republicans +1.

Really starting to get a "mimic other pollsters" feel out of Rassy.

PPP finds a 3-point Dem lead: 43-40 but given their disastrous new methodology take this with a mountain of salt.

NBC/WSJ: (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_U.S.%20news/US-news-PDFs/14133%20MARCH%20NBC-WSJ%20Poll%20(3-12%20Release).pdf) A Democrat who favors fixing the ACA beats a Republican who opposes it 48-47.

Too bad an actual Republican who favors repeal beat an actual Democrat who favors fixing it 49-47. :P

Voters narrowly want a Republican Congress, 44-43.

New George Washington University Battleground poll for POLITICO:

43% GOP
43% DEM

Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states
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and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?

In America, yeah there is more to it.  If someone retires from a certain seat, it can become competitive or uncompetitive.  It is up to a point up to the candidates running.

^ As Jerry says, you have to consider more than the ostensible numbers.

MN-06 is now Safe R. Bachmann is retiring. She was an extremely flawed and controversial Republican who almost lost in 2012; a sane Republican will have an easy time holding the seat.

I'd trade NE-02 and IN-02 for OH-14 and IA-03.

AP poll points to GOP edge ahead of midterms

By Kate Tummarello
April 06, 2014, 04:22 pm

According to the poll (http://ap-gfkpoll.com/featured/our-latest-story-5), which was conducted last month, 36 percent of respondents would rather see Democrats controlling Congress, while 37 percent said they would refer Republicans be in charge.

This is a change from a poll in January, when 39 percent of respondents said they wanted Democrats to control Congress, and 32 percent said they favored Republicans.

Voters who are most strongly interested in politics are more likely to favor Republicans, according to the poll, with 51 percent favoring Republicans and 37 percent favoring Democrats.

Overall, the Republican Party is viewed more favorably than it has been in the past, with 38 percent of respondents saying they “hold a favorable impression” of the GOP, the poll found.
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Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/202778-ap-poll-points-to-gop-edge#ixzz2y9ZECqhh

I don't think the public has fully paid attention yet. And there is a delayed response to Obamacare news. The GOP has the edge in House but in statewide elections Govs and Senate, chance for Dems.

The new USAToday/Pew poll points to a GOP-wave in November:

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http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats

:(

I wonder what is making the public turn against the Democrats this year. Perhaps it is a compounding of various events, instead of one striking issue. I don't think the turn against the Democrats is solely due to Obamacare.

I agree that it seems like the Republicans are headed for a big win this November.

It is his second midterm, which is aways tough for Inc party. The Dems have to run on policy in a jobless recovery. Should the GOP excel, they already maxed out gains in 2010, +70 in House, it won't be that much of a wave but a GOP yr. But it is only May.

Simple, Benghazi is being covered a lot on FOX and their minions are engaged and rabid right now.

Rassy: (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot) 39D 37R

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

^ Admittedly, the current numbers aren't indicative of a wave, but sometimes we don't see wave-like numbers for a political party in the summer even when a wave actually occurs for the party that election year.

On 6/29/2010, the Democrats had a 0.4% lead in the generic congressional ballot, but the Republicans ended up leading by 9.4% in the final average of congressional polls taken from the last week of October 2010. If we saw a shift that large this year in the Republican's favor between now and November, the generic congressional ballot would move from the current Democratic lead of 1.4% to a Republican lead of 8.4%. I wouldn't go so far as to say that kind of shift will happen this year, but it wouldn't be without precedent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate in your district?

41% Dems
39% GOP

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

46% GOP
44% Dems

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

46% GOP
44% Dems

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2058

Considering the Democrats are leading in 2/3 of the generic polls; a situation which did not occur in 2010, a Republican wave in Democratic leaning districts is highly unlikely. My prediction is Dems pick up 1-5 seats in the house. I will also just mention that I underestimated how many seats the Dems would pick up in 2012, a net gain of +8 was at the high end of what I would have predicted.The reason for this is that the Democrats seem to be outperforming the RCP Polling AVG. in recent years

2014 RCP AVG: Dem +1.5% Result: ?
2012 RCP AVG: Rep +0.2% Result: Dem +1.2%
2010 RCP AVG: REP +9.4% Result: Rep +6.8%
2008 RCP AVG: Dem +9.0% Result: Dem +10.7%

 Pew: D+2 (http://www.people-press.org/files/2014/07/2014-Midterms-Topline.pdf)

 CNN: D+4 (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/07/27/cnn.orc.poll.pdf)

This Republican wave I keep hearing about is running out of time to materialize...

Even more relevant now.

June 25: D+1.4
Now: D+2.5

Exactly. Democrats have lead or tied for the past 15 generic congressional polls now going back all the way to the beginning of June. And for the past 23 generic polls, all the way back to the beginning of May, Republicans have just had the lead in one single one. Doesn't exactly scream a Republican landslide take over to me either.

They have their narrative and they're sticking to it...

Back in 2010, when Democrats lost 63 House seats to Republicans, voters were less negative than they are now. So, that means our elected representatives ought to start packing, right?

Lets keep in mind that democrats need (probably) at least a 2 point lead in the generic congressional polls in order to gain seats in the house, and they would probably need at least an 8 point lead to take over the house, with the way its gerrymandered and set up.

Oh, I'm not saying Democrats will take the House or even gain seats. I'm just mocking the "Republican wave!/2010 redux!" media narrative.

People seem to forget that in 2010, Democrats had complete and utter control of the government. So anyone who was upset with things during the great recession, would cast a protest vote against the Democrats.

Now Republicans aren't the fresh faced party of change and a way to stop Obama's agenda. They have had power for close to 4 years now and we have seen the results. Government shut down, taking America to the brink over the debt default and radical right wing extremist Tea Partiers holding the country hostage. Obama is only at around 42 % approval, but congress is at around 15 %, and is universally hated when Republicans control the house.

I don't expect a wave when Republicans have shared the blame with Obama since 2010 for people's dissatisfaction with the government.

Generic congressional polls have generally underestimated GOP support while overestimating Democrat support. Based on current trends, GOP are on track to gain at least a dozen seats.
By the way, most marginal house seats are held by Democrats.

This is factually untrue. In fact, in the last 3 elections, the generic ballot has underestimated DEMOCRATIC support.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_generic_congressional_vote-3525.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2008_generic_congressional_vote-2173.html

It seemed like the Democrats losing 63 House seats in 2010 was worse than predicted though. Of course estimating seats lost from the margin can be hard. I don't get the sense that 2008 or 2012 were worse than predicted. Of course 2012 would have been a lot better without the gerrymandering. The old districts were somewhat gerrymandered for Republicans, but nothing like the new districts.

New Rasmussen poll
Republicans 42%
Democrats 38%

Is the Republican wave materializing? This is the best Rasmussen poll Republicans have has sense after the failed health care.gov roll out last year.

Ras just fluctuates like crazy on the Generic Ballot. 

I wouldn't call it a wave, but I think when we go RV -> LV for all polls, we'll probably see even or R+1.

WaPo/ABC : (http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/08/05/National-Politics/Polling/release_359.xml)

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?

Approve- 41%
Disapprove- 51%

Q2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Democratic Party?

Favorable- 49%
Unfavorable- 46%

Q3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Republican Party?

Favorable- 35%
Unfavorable- 60%

With numbers like that, you'd think Democrats would be leading by more on the generic ballot than they actually are. Strange.

Apparently not. CBS (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-views-of-obama-congress-gloomy/) poll released today: D+4.

WaPo: (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/08/07/the-poll-that-republicans-have-been-waiting-for/) Democrats lead 41-37 overall, but trail 40-47 with enthusiastic voters.

Luckily, as we saw in 2012, an unenthusaistic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one.

McClatchy-Marist (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/08/11/235995/obamas-standing-among-voters-is.html):
McClatchy says that Independents are breaking for Republicans more than they did in prior polls.

^


Typo in the tweet. The 64/19 is with blacks.

I think we need to see the real clear politics average move from D +1 before we say there will be a Republican wave. What we do know is that the democrats  are doing poorly in head to head  match-ups in battleground districts, and not surprisingly polls of individual races which tend to be more accurate in predicting the end result.

RV -> LV will turn this into a lean GOP, as in R+1 to R+2 type of year.  For this to be a wave, the GOP needs to do something pretty incredible or Obama needs to really **** up in Iraq.

Fox News: (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/08/14/fox-news-polls-immigration-ebola-obamacare-2014-midterm-elections/)

Democrats- 46%
Republicans- 39%

Favorables

Democrats- 47/45
Republicans- 42/50


Marvelous news!

but its gonna be a 2010 landslide again because that's what everyone is saying right

#2010redux #GOPlandslide

Imagine the looks on their faces when they reported this.

LOL.

The generic ballot polls are literally all over the place.  There's zero consensus and they range from R+5 to D+7.  It's quite an unpredictable year.

The Marist poll was an obvious outlier if you look at the aggregate. The Fox poll may be as well.

I wonder if realclearpolitics.com will be able to come up with an excuse to exclude it from the average.

I'd say the truth is currently D+1, which won't change the House. I'm not sure D+7 would either, which is just the kind of joke the House districts are right now.

That Fox Poll showing the Dems +7 is Balogna.

Pew Research Center: (http://www.people-press.org/2014/08/26/republicans-open-up-wider-expectations-gap-ahead-of-midterms/) Democrats lead 47/42 on the generic ballot, but Republicans are twice as likely to feel optimistic about the midterms.

Well considering the media and pundits have been endlessly ranting about a GOP wave/2010 redux for a while now, it's not surprising Republicans are more optimistic. What is surprising is that the media continues to try to drive this narrative despite it contradicting their own polling data.

Republicans will have to win the expectations game now. It will not be that demoralize to Dems if they still have like 48 or 49 seats. Republicans will be crushed if they lose.

George Washington University Battleground Poll:

46% GOP
42% DEM

Obama approval:

44-51 disapprove

The poll, which is distinguished from other surveys by its presentation of separate analyses from these top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Aug. 24 through Aug. 28, and included a protocol for reaching mobile phone users. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

http://mediarelations.gwu.edu/economy-will-drive-midterm-elections-gw-battleground-poll-shows

WaPo/ABC Poll:

RV:
46% DEM
44% GOP

LV:
47% GOP
44% DEM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-public-supports-strikes-in-iraq-syria-obamas-ratings-hover-near-his-all-time-lows/2014/09/08/69c164d8-3789-11e4-8601-97ba88884ffd_story.html?hpid=z1

CNN/Opinion Research
September 5 to September 7
Likely Voters

Republicans: 49
Democrats: 45

Reps +4


Definite trend in the last week toward the Republicans on the generic ballot, though this doesn't seem to be showing up in the Senate race polling, unless I'm missing something. Maybe the distribution of Rep vs Dem votes across the country? LV vs RV sampling?

I think it's more than everyone is switching to LV models than any sort of actual movement.

That's a fair point, it makes me wonder why polling companies don't just use the LV model all the time.

Fox News Poll

Likely Voters

GOP 47%
DEM 40%

Registered Voters

GOP 45%
DEM 41%

GOP leads 39-21 among Independents in this poll.

Did FOX seriously just go from D+7 to R+7 in a month? When nothing particularly interesting or game changing happened in said month?

Because you can't use a LV model until you know who the LVs are.

BREAKING: REPUBLICAN WAVE COLLAPSES, DEMOCRATS SURGE BACK INTO A 3% LEAD (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot)

LOL. Man, Ras is all over the place this cycle.

Look up "Schizophrenic" in a dictionary, it says Rasmussen Reports.

Good to see the Lady of San Francisco on her way to ride the Boehner out of the Capitol.

CBS News/New York Times (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-obama-tough-enough-in-dealing-with-isis/) has Republicans up 6 points among likely voters:

GOP: 45%
Dems: 39%

Independents favor the GOP by a 9 point margin (40/31).

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ... :P

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

Dominating.

Not only that, but Rasmussen's latest generic ballot from yesterday showed Democrats ahead by 1% among likely voters. :D Maybe it's the massive requests of in mail ballots all across the country by Democratic voters that is finally starting to make its impact. ;)

Taken together, CNN and Rasmussen polled 4,200 likely voters, so it doesn't have to be a statistical fluke either. :P Also, Obama's disapproval numbers have been massively scaled back in almost every poll during the past week. He's in the single digits everywhere now, while most pollsters had him in the double digits before that.

He is benefiting from being viewed as a War President.

#2010redux

I had always suspected that action against ISIS, being broadly popular with the public, would benefit the incumbent party on net.  There is evidence of some modest improvement, let's see if it continues.

Including leaners, the sample was 47-45 Democrat, so it's not too surprising to see this kind of Democrat lead in the generic ballot with that in mind.


Can we really use Rasmussen to corroborate CNN's numbers? I want to see some more generic congressional ballot polls, though CNN could very well be accurate.

NPR: (http://media.npr.org/documents/2014/oct/DCorps-NPR-092414-FQ-updated.pdf) Republicans up 48/45.

Fox (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/02/fox-news-poll-only-24-percent-personally-better-off-gop-has-edge-in-midterms/): For likely voters, Republicans up 7 with leaners (47/40), and 7 without (44/37).

Marist:

D+1

Obama has a 46-51 approval.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/103-voters-remain-dissatisfied-with-congress-uneasy-about-their-finances-and-the-countrys-direction

46%? That approval rating sounds a bit too high, only Rasmussen has something comparable.

I see the unskewing continues unabashed. Typical Republican spin.

It's somewhat noteworthy that recent polls have Obama's approval creeping back up into the mid-40's.  That would seem to set this campaign season apart from 2006.

3 of the last 4 national polls released (from Rasmussen, Marist and CNN) have had Democrats ahead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. :D

And yes, Obama's approval numbers keep getting better as well, especially with the two leading pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen. :)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Regardless, it seems pretty clear that this won't be another 2010. In the entire month of October in 2010, Dems only lead in 2 generic ballot polls.

Suffolk in NC: (http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_8_2014_marginals.pdf) Democrats lead 46/45.

CBS has R+6, which is actually 1 point less than their last poll which was R+7. #Demwavebuilding

But seriously, pretty bad news. It seems like there's two groups of pollsters: one which sees a virtual stalemate, and one which sees an impending Republican wave. One group is going to look very silly in a month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-obama-be-a-driving-force-for-midterm-voters/

Indeed.  The bimodal distribution is weird.

The same thing is sort of showing up in some races as well. Michigan governor, Iowa senate, Colorado senate...

Just when you thought things couldn't get any weirder...

Reason-Rupe has Democrats ahead by 9 points. Their last poll in August was D+1...

http://reason.com/assets/db/14128084586864.pdf

lol

Gallup: R+1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Gallup_101014.pdf

Ipsos: D+1

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=13949

Pollster currently has it at an exact tie, 43.5-43.5.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-national-house-race

dat dem momentum

Yeah, certainly no 2010, that's for sure.

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NBC/WSJ: (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/10/12/poll-democratic-supporters-less-interested-in-midterm/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth)

RV: Dems lead 48-43
LV: Doesn't say??
"Most interested voters": GOP leads 51-44

Not sure why they didn't poll LV...

The world I love, the tears I drop, to be part of the wave can't stop...

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Looks like Republicans are going to win this simply by being loud and telling everyone they're going to win this.

Not true. They're going to win because the gerrymandered districts they drew guarantee they will win.

Okay, the actual NBC/WSJ poll: (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/gop-holds-edge-over-dems-midterm-home-stretch-poll-shows-n225806)

LV: 46-44 Republicans
RV: 46-42 Democrats

Republicans led 50-43 in the NBC/WSJ poll this time in 2010.

Fox News: (https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/522507747795812352) Democrats improve to trailing 42/45, up from 40/47.

Junk poll!

 His Time Has Come Once Again

... but it's a good poll for the Democrats.

LOL

Politico has Democrats up slightly. (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/politico-poll-2014-elections-112016.html?hp=f1)

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Makes sense. Republicans are retreating from pickup opportunities like ME-02 while Democrats are surging in deep red seats like AR-02! The Democratic Wave is building!

Wait a second. POLITICO of all places has Democrats leading the generic ballot? Among likely voters?! This election cycle is so freaky. Mixed signals everywhere you look.

Rassmusen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot)

Democrats: 41
Republicans: 41

Republicans are running out of time...

GLORIOUS NEWS!

Pew: (http://pewrsr.ch/1rnx54b) Dems lead 47-46

The Democratic Wave continues to build!!

Their last poll was R+3...this is a pretty big deal considering Pew's reputation. I doubt it will interfere with the pundits "2010 redux" narrative though.

This election is going to be a load of fun. Perhaps the 2000 of midterms.

Yes, Pew is basically the "gold standard" of national polls. This is very good news for Democrats.

Democracy Corps: Tie (46-46).

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/990/102114_DCOR_fq_for%20website.pdf

Pollster currently has R+1 (46-45). At this point in 2010, Republicans were leading the generic ballot by 5-8 points (depending upon your source).

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/10/26/poll-gop-expands-advantage-days-before-midterm-election/

Well, there's a new source today and it says +11. Glad this election will be even more of a romping than 2010!

There's a reverse Bradley Effect going on where people don't want to appear bias against white Republicans.

Has this ever been documented before?  I assume you're not being serious, but it's hard to tell on the Internet.

Regardless, Generic Ballot polls vary about 10%.  It's better to trust individual Senate/House polls instead.

So the generic ballot is either D +1 or R +11. Okay...

In addition, Politico has it a D +3 and Rasmussen has it at a tie.  R +11 seems to be an outlier unless we get more polls to confirm.

The AP also has R+8, and a Reason-Rupe poll released a little while ago had D+9.

Some pollsters are going to look really foolish in a little over a week...

CNN (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/10/27/10274pm.poll.pdf)
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

And Rasmussen has D+2 (43-41). The Dem wave is building!

I thought these pollsters were all going to herd towards some type of consensus toward the end, but it doesn't seem to be happening. This election just got even more unpredictable.

Of course, the right-wing hacks at RCP entered the Rasmussen poll as R+2 for some reason.

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

They want the GOP to control it but wouldn't vote for the Republican in a "generic match up?" What?

Apparently there's some confusion on Ras's poll. Their headline numbers say D+2, but their description says "Republicans have taken the lead on the generic ballot". Who knows which one is the typo.

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The link to the article still isn't updated (it has last week's results), so clicking it does no good.

My guess is that people who don't care which party controls congress are breaking heavily for the Democrats.

Yeah, generally ignorant people tend to do that.

If someone cares enough to vote for Congress, I don't see why they wouldn't care who controls Congress.  I understand question wording can generate slightly different responses, but still...

For all the GOP wave talk, the R+11 poll seems to be a big outlier. Most of the recent polls are pretty much split down the middle.

For anyone who was waiting with bated breath on Ras's actual result, it was R+2. I'm guessing RCP knew right away because they had a subscription and could actually read the article.

WaPo has R+6, more or less the same as their last poll (which was R+7).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-midterm-momentum-belongs-to-gop/2014/10/27/6cb63a74-5e0d-11e4-9f3a-7e28799e0549_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

()SHOCK POLL!!!!!!!!!!!! ()

FOX shows Democrats leading by 1 point on the generic ballot! (45-44)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/28/fox-news-poll-voters-lack-confidence-in-obama-ebola-czar/

(Don't you love how they bury the lede in the description?)

Excellent news. John Boehner is in for a good thrashing.

The suspense over which generic poll is right is killing me.

The ABC/WaPo poll from this morning is a pretty clear outlier at this point (especially when you ignore the junk internet AP poll).

CBS: R+8 (up from R+6 in their last poll).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_102914.pdf

This is gonna be a fun election night.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815

Harvard poll says R+6 and R+4 for 18-29 year olds which ABC is selling as a story to the masses but is clearly a sign the poll is junk.

The Pathetics around here have gotten to the point where they are literally dismissing polls just because they dislike the findings.

Next Tuesday won't just be for enjoying the GOP Wave; it will be for praying by people like myself for the sad folks here.

Says the Republican from Pennsylvania who thinks the Kansas fossils will be reelected... ::)

So why do you think FOX and Pew show D+1 then? FOX may just be to get their base in a tizzy to make sure they vote, but Pew is a pretty high quality non partisan pollster.

You know what I say about Pew Polling? It stinks!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/10/30/usa-today-poll-high-anxiety-low-expectations/18118403/

USA Today
LV: D+1
RV: D +5

Here comes the wave!

If Dems win or tie the congressional vote they sure are not losing the 12 seats that the media seems to be expecting.

WTF is up with the Congressional Ballot being so mixed?

I have no idea, it's extremely strange. In the past couple weeks we've gotten:

Pew: D+1
FOX: D+1
USA Today: D+1
CNN: D+1

CBS: R+8
WaPo: R+6
AP: R+8

The fact that there's clearly two distinct groups showing vastly different things is starting to make me think that "averaging" them may not be the best strategy. It could just be that one group is going to be right and the other wrong.

Likely some likely voter models which are likely too tight are likely off.

The RCP average of GOP up 2.5 does seem plausible though. Still, it's surprising to see everyone downgrading Democratic seats in the house even though the national state of things and senate races haven't changed in 6 weeks.

Final NBC/WSJ "generic ballot": R+1

Who wants to bet this will get nowhere near the coverage that ridiculous R+11 poll last week got? ::)

If the GOP thinks R+1 in a midterm is a good result they're delusional. Adjusting for presidential turnout means the Dems would go into 2016 favored in the presidential race easily. If Rs only have a slight lead like that the Senate won't be more than 52-53 R.

I got polled today by YouGov and they asked questions about Obama's approval and a generic ballot question. So we might get another national YouGov poll tomorrow.

It's actually a tie, 48-48. Their last poll back in early October was R+1 (48-47).

This is the thing that isn't gelling in my mind.

The problem is that they've been asked a generic ballot question ("who would you vote for in your district") and a preferred control question ("who would you prefer to control Congress") in their polls. Understandably the results have been very different and they've done a very, very bad job of actually distinguished between the two. So it's a tie in the generic ballot (from R+1 earlier in the month) and R+1 in the preferred control question (from R+11 earlier in the month).

Basically NBC/WSJ is horrible and I hate them.

Yeah, that really makes no sense at all.

What makes the least sense of all is why somebody would want one party to control Congress and then support somebody from the other party. But he shook my hand one time. And he has such a beautiful family ::)
My prediction is that the Dems will win the total House vote by 2 percentage points but will stay in the minority because of egregious and pervasve Republican gerrymandering.

Yup, it got released. R+4 (46-42).

Ras's final poll has R+3 (44-41).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Considering everyone else is showing Dems up or the GOP up by huge margins, if it does end up being a moderately decent GOP result but not a landslide, looks like Ras will be our new generic ballot gold standard. lol

Producing a moderate hero result doesn't make an organization the gold standard for polling.

Regardless, if everyone else is dead wrong, they're still going to look better.

And if not....

I often wondered if I could get away with being a fake polling firm that simply takes the complete toplines from 3 polls from around the same time and average their data.

It'd be interesting experiment to see if 538 or here could pick up that King Research Institute was really a scam or if they would actually credit me as the most accurate firm.