Talk Elections

With the TX primaries.

Here are all the Gubernatorial primaries, sorted chronologically:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G14/gpaag

Here are all the Senate primaries, sorted chronologically:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G14/spaag

TX results for Governor can be found here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TX_Governor_0304.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Statewide stuff and local stuff here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TX_Page_0304.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Thanks for those links!

Thanks for those links. The suspense is killing me: Will it be Wendy Davis or Ray Madrigal????

Here's a link with a map (http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Live-results-from-Texas-primary-elections-5284901.php)

Polls are closed.

Dallas County's got early vote totals up:

Cornyn 73%
Stockman 13%
Stovall 7%

Patrick 48%
Dewhurst 24% (lol)
Patterson 15%
Staples 13%

Alameel 51%
Rogers 28%

Alameel: 43%
Rogers: 19% (lol)
Scherr: 17%
Kim: 13%
Fjetland: 8%

Eh, that's 2 precincts.

New updates:

David Alameel: 53.99%   
Michael Fjetland: 5.41%
Harry Kim: 6.78%
Kesha Rogers: 16.22%
Maxey Marie Scherr: 17.57%


Just a few more now :)

It looks like Alameel might win without a runoff :o

Patrick is leading Dewhurst 46%-27%

Greg Abbott winning very easily, has 92% of the vote. Davis has 70%, but that numbers should rise and she should win easily as well. Just 1% in.


Oh :P

Austin polls will remain open until 9pm due to weather.

Early votes are early votes, but Patrick is crushing Dewhurst in the suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Fort Bend). We saw something similar with Dewhurst and Cruz in the first round of the 2012 primary, but not to this extent.

Patrick up 44-28 on Dewhurst
Abbot up 92-4 on Fritsch
Cornyn up 64-17 on Stockman

Alameel up 53-22 on Rogers
Davis up 76-24 on Madrigal

I totally missed the fact that Larry Kilgore got on the ballot as SECEDE Kilgore.

Kinky not far behind Mr. Hogan. Interesting....

At a results party at a local bar, so far none of the results of our region have come out.

It looks like there is a lot of opposition to Wendy Davis in the areas with high Hispanic populations. 

Both Gov. races have been called for Abbott and Davis, GOP Senate race has been called for Cornyn.

Wendy Davis is projected to win (Gov)
Greg Abbott is projected to win (Gov)
George P. Bush is projected to win (Land Co.)

The Texas Democratic party should probably just disband.


And Texas should probably be given back to Mexico.

Pretty soon he'll set his sights on higher targets.

Madrigal is doing fairly well.

Dewhurst is screwed.

Yeah; for a perennial Some Dude, he is. He's from Corpus Christie but he's blowing out Davis in some of the counties around the Rio Gande valley.

Indeed, I'm quite shocked. And if he was not some perennial dude with no money, he actually might win.

Did he even run any ads?

He will not win, Davis is leading by 60 points right now.

The TX State Senate could be getting considerably more conservative in January. Three of the chamber's most moderate Republicans - John Carona (Dallas), Bob Deuell (Greenville) and Kel Seliger (Amarillo) are facing strong Tea Party challenges.

Deuell is currently barely over the 50% threshold.

Seliger is leading by single digits.

No precincts in for Carona-versus-Huffines yet.

I never said he would; I said that

I doubt it; all I can find from a simple Google search are generic articles and a few YouTube interviews.


Yeah, but it still looks bad that she's losing some of those border counties by pretty big margins.

'Kinda reminds me of LA in 2010. Melancon was running against two Some Dudes for the nomination, but he failed to win majorities in several northern parishes. 'Didn't bode well for the general election.

Glenn Hegar is at 48.3% in the comptroller's race. Maybe no runoff.

It will be an embarrassing night for David Dewhurst if he can't even manage to break 30% in the LiteGuv race. Patrick is currently leading in most of the state's major counties.

Only 9.53% of Precincts have come in... give it time.

Reporting starting to finally speed up little, now at 10%. Nothing we didn't already know. Patrick, Hogan, Miller, Paxton, Hegar, and Christian all under 50%.

Gotta love Foard County...the lily white, rural cotton county whose residents still refuse to call themselves Republicans. All two precincts in and zero votes cast in the GOP primary.

Scherr is only trailing Rogers 21-17 for the second runoff slot.

Yep, Patrick and Dewhurst are going to a runoff....

Don't think the numbers will change much for anybody.  Most of the early votes have been reported and nobody turnout to vote today.  Even though the AP says 22% of precincts, you've probably got 80% of the vote recorded.

Madrigal's success = low-information Hispanic voters picking the Hispanic surname. Not that surprising.

They're starting to pick up now, but I don't remember Texas vote counters being this slow in the past.

The Hispanic Surname Effect is a well-established phenomenon in Texas politics. If your last name ends in a "z", you can run for any statewide office in the Democratic primary and are more or less guaranteed to get at least 10% of the vote or so and carry a couple of Valley counties.

Steve Brown projected to win the D Primary for Railroad Commissioner
Jim Hogan will go onto a runoff with Kinky Friedman for Agriculture Commissioner (D)
Sid Miller will go onto a runoff with someone undetermined for Agriculture Commissioner (R)

Still unclear whether Glenn Hegar (R-Comptroller) or David Alameel (D-Senate) can get up to 50%. Apparently Hegar has home territory left.

There will also be a runoff between Wayne Christian and Ryan Sitton for Railroad Commissioner (R)

The lousy weather in Houston seems to have yielded big dividends for Dan Patrick.

Brazoria County - Patrick 49%, Dewhurst 16%
Fort Bend County - Patrick 52%, Dewhurst 21%
Galveston County - Patrick 42%, Dewhurst 20%
Harris County - Patrick 59%, Dewhurst 19%
Montgomery County - Patrick 60%, Dewhurst 15%

Better night for the Tea Party this year than in 2012.

Moderate Republican State Rep. Ralph Sheffield (Temple) loses to TP challenger.

State Sen. Kel Seliger (Amarillo) barely hanging on against TP challenger.

Don Huffines narrowly leads incumbent John Carona in Dallas senate seat race.

Tea Party State Rep. Jonathan Stickland (Ft. Worth) has comfortable lead over Establishment challenger Andy Cargile.

Ken Paxton leads Dan Branch in AG race with run-off more or less inevitable.

What did Dewhurst do to piss off Republicans this much? Before this, I could see his primary being competitive, but losing 42-28!?

More incumbent legislators in trouble.

State Rep. George Lavender (Texarkana) trailing challenger by 13 points.

State Rep. Lance Gooden (Terrell) trailing challenger by 3 points.

State Rep. Jim Keffer (Eastland) leads Tea Party-backed Cullen Crisp by just over 300 votes.

State Rep. Diane Patrick (Arlington) is nearly 10 points behind her challenger.

State Rep. Stefani Carter (Dallas) may go into a runoff with Linda Koop. Carter is the only black female Republican in the Legislature and her reputation has been badly damaged by a failed Railroad Commission bid and controversy surrounding a car accident she caused and later lied about.

Looks like most of Texarkana is still out, so that should help Lavender.

In AG race, Smitherman concedes. Paxton and Branch will go to runoff.

The Texas House will have at least one pro-choice Republican next session. Incumbent Rep. Sarah Davis (Houston) has a wide lead over her challenger, conservative activist Bonnie Parker, with nearly 90% of precincts in.

Is she from Texarkana? Her website says she's from East Texas but doesn't seem to specify where.

Bowie County is taking forever to report; 29 of its 36 precincts are still out.

Lavander is losing 56/44 but getting 57% in Bowie. He could still hang on with the rest of the county.

And there it is. All of Bowie is in.

Lavender only got 53% in the county, not enough to save him. He gets booted 54-46 from his State House seat.

Fritsch only took 6% there.

Tyler - close by, but still weird.

LiteGuv map is forthcoming. Looks like Patrick's first place finish was due to his strong showing in the urban/suburban Houston and DFW counties that make up such a large share of the GOP primary vote.

Dewhurst did best in the small cities and rural areas in West Texas and the Panhandle. Not a lot of votes there.

Staples did well in his native Piney Woods but couldn't break out of that region.

Jerry Patterson was also on the ballot.

More proof of how polarized the two parties are...the ballot propositions...

For the Democrats:

Prop 1 - Immigration Reform
87% In Favor
13% Against

Prop 2 - A living wage for all Texans
89% In Favor
11% Against

Prop 3 - Medicaid Expansion
89% In Favor
11% Against

Prop 4 - Non-discrimination legislation
88% In Favor
12% Against

For the Republicans:

Prop 1 - Ability to freely express religious beliefs and prayer in public
97% In Favor
3% Against

Prop 2 - Expand locations to carry concealed handguns
87% In Favor
13% Against

Prop 3 - Abolish the state franchise tax to encourage business growth
89% In Favor
11% Against

Prop 4 - Drug testing for welfare recipients to receive benefits
95% In Favor
5% Against

Prop 5 - Elected officials and staff subject to same laws as constituents
99% In Favor
1% Against

Prop 6 - Repeal the Affordable Care Act
93% In Favor
7% Against

IMHO - not very surprising. Turnout always drops in midterms, and the more he drops - the more "activist" becomes primary electorate. In case of Texas Republicans - even more right-wing...

P.S. Very bad weather in DFW metropolis probably "helped" too)))). Tea-partiers are much more "whether resistant". They are warmed from inside by burning ideological "passion"...

So, by my count, there were two State Senators and seven State Representatives who lost or were forced into runoffs. Is that what others have?

I think that's all of them.

Sen. Bob Deuell will go to a run-off with a Tea Partier. I like the guy - he's a doctor from East Texas and is a conservative but he's got so little patience with the Tea Party, he once mockingly asked on the Senate floor where the "black helicopters" were that they were so paranoid about.

Sen. John Carona lost to Don Huffines, who isn't really a Tea Party guy but played the conservative foil to the moderate Carona.

State Reps who lost: Lon Burnam (D-Fort Worth), Naomi Gonzalez (D-El Paso), George Lavender (R-Texarkana), Lance Gooden (R-Terrell), Diane Patrick (R-Arlington), Ralph Sheffield (R-Temple), Linda Harper Brown (R-Irving), Bennett Ratliff (R-Coppell).

Diane Patrick and Linda Harper Brown were two of Speaker Straus's close allies and had targets on their backs for that reason. Ralph Sheffield is consistently named the most liberal/moderate Republican in the House by various conservative groups. Bennett Ratliff is also fairly moderate. I think local politics went into play with Gooden's race and I don't know what the problem with George Lavender was.

With the Dems, the El Paso delegation deserves its own reality show. You have Norma Chavez bullying members via text message, Naomi Gonzalez driving drunk, and so forth. Lon Burnam is basically a Tea Partier's stereotype of what all Democrats are like - he's a sanctimonious, elitist liberal and the fact that he's a white male makes it all even worse. He was heavy on commentary and light on legislative accomplishment.

Next stop: Illinois (March 18)

Those are more what I'm interested in.

Bruce Rauner hopefully wins.

IL Gov. results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/IL_Governor_0318.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

IL statewide-related results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/IL_Page_0318.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Why?

Besides the GOP primary for governor, there is another interesting thing to watch. In the 13th district former Miss America Erika Harold is taking on the republican incumbent. Anyone know her chances there?

She's raised f**k-all and hasn't come close in any poll I've seen.

The Democratic primary for IL-13 is much more interesting and close, but I'd give Ann Callis the edge.

There's also a competitive GOP primary in IL-11 as several candidates compete to see who gets to get slaughtered by Bill Foster come November.

The district I go to school in. Her chances are slim, as Davis has significantly better name recognition in the district and has not done anything to upset GOP primary voters in his first term.

Interesting divide today between Illinois Republicans, mostly within the Tea Party. Strong fiscal conservatives and strong social conservatives, usually allies in the Tea Party, are splitting between Rauner (the fiscals) and Dillard (the socons). These two groups seem to usually be allied in calling moderates 'RINOs', but are now divided because of Rauner's strong fiscal conservatism but very moderate social record.

And the moderates just don't know who their candidate is at this point it seems, although Rauner is probably picking them up because of his social record.

A factor which should not be overlooked among IL Pubs is the frustration at feeling like they have had no voice in state government for over a decade and an utter distaste for the status quo over that period of time. The two leading candidates offer very different visions, Dillard harkens back to the last great GOP Gov of IL, Jim Edgar from the mid 90's, for whom Dillard was Chief of Staff. Rauner looks to a newer model of GOP success often quoting Walker, Daniels and to a lesser degree Snyder. Rauner has captured that frustrated base who want change and see the modern model as more attractive than the GOP Midwest of Edgar, Tommy Thompson, and John Engler.

Polls are closed.

Supposedly a bit of D crossover votes for Dillard. I'm guessing that they think Quinn is going to lose anyway, so why not get the most liberal Republican?

Dillard's actually quite conservative socially, though not as much as Brady. The difference for Dems is that Dillard's not anti-union.

2% in

Rauner: 49%
Dillard: 35%
Brady: 12%
Rutherford: 5%

Quinn: 78%
Hardiman: 22%

Looks like Quinn might win handily. Rauner got a decent lead with a 2% sample.

Lake County is the main portion of that with some Cook and a smattering of other counties.

7.5% in, only Lake and Cook County have voted, so I expect Quinn to do worse as the night goes on.

http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/governor/illinois/#.UyjmxPldUSM

Cumberland County (8% reporting) has 88% of the vote for Hardiman and 12% for Quinn.

8% in

Truax is leading Oberweis in the Senate primary. 52-48

Rauner - 47
Dillard - 36
Brady - 12
Rutherford - 5

Oberweis' strength is greatest away from Chicago where he benefits from his name ID. Also the Chicago media hit Oberweis this last week for spending a few days in Florida for his wife's birthday.

I suppose this should be in the thread on the other board.

Tom Cross is leading Bob Grogan in the Republican Treasurer primary, 56-44

15%

Quinn - 79
Hardiman - 21

Rauner - 49
Dillard - 35
Brady - 12
Rutherford - 5

Cross - 58
Grogan - 42

Very surprised to see Brady and Rutherford doing this badly.

Quinn the projected winner in the D primary.

In the HD-39 Dem primary, State Rep. Toni Berrios is loosing to challenger Will Guzzardi 45 to 55 with 23% in.



For those that don't know, the race is being chacterized as a referendum on Rahm Emmanuel. Berrios is a big supporter of Rahm's education policies, specifically school vouchers. Guzzardi is running as an anti-machine, pro-teacher candidate.

Republicans Ed Sullivan and Tom Cross are winning their respective primaries after voting for same-sex marriage. No votes in yet on the third, Rep. Sandack.

First county to be done reporting, Edwards County, voted for Quinn 69-31, and voted for Rauner followed by Dillards, Brady, and Rutherford 33-30-24-13.

GOV:
38% in

Rauner - 45%
Dillard - 35%
Brady - 13%
Rutherford - 6%


Treasurer:
38% in

Cross - 59%
Grogan - 41%



HD-39
65% in

Will Guzzardi - 60%
Toni Berrios - 40%

All of Hamilton and Pope came in, both voted for Hardiman.

Stunning.

Another Democratic State Rep. facing a challenge from his left partially over education, Christian Mitchell of HD-26, is leading 53-47 over progressive activist Jay Travis.



In HD-81, Ron Sandack (R-Incumbent), who voted in favor of gay marriage in 2013, is losing to social conservative Keith Matune 47-53.

Mitchell's opponent is funded by unions upset at his vote to cut pensions.

The HD-81 vote is just the early voting.

The margin between Rauner and Dillard is getting tighter, its now 42-36 with half reporting.

HD-39, 67% of precincts reporting

Guzzardi - 60%
Berrios (I) - 40%


Barrios is reportedly preparing to concede.

Rep. Ed Sullivan of Mundelein, a Republican vote for same-sex marriage last year, has survived his primary challenge.

Its time to start worrying here:

Rauner - 41%
Dillard - 37%

About 18,000 votes separate the candidates.

Associated Press declares that Jim Oberweis will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate

Rauner's lead continues to shrink

Rauner- 40%
Dillard- 37%

()

A map to keep you occupied (red is quinn, blue is hardiman)

WGN reports Rauner has increased to 42%

40-38 Rauner

Sandack is still loosing in HD-81, 48-52, with 10% of the vote in. It's not just the early votes now.

Tom Cross the projected winner in the Treasurers race.

Would the Republican primary go to a runoff if neither Rauner or Dillard gets 50% of the vote?

It would not

http://www.instantrunoffvoting.us/runoffelections.html

IL has no runoff provisions. FPTP all the way.

What % of Cook is reporting?

85%

47% in for HD-81, Sandack is behind by 13 votes, a 50-50 split percentage-wise.

Brady concedes, Rauner leads by 11,000 votes (40% - 38%)



EDIT: Rauner just surged to 33,000 vote lead, 42%-37%!

Barring something unexpected, Dillard is likely to lose by 3.5% based on current projections.



Also, AP has called HD-39 for Guzzardi. The Chicago Machine is expansive and powerful, but it does have it's losses every now and again.

About 90% in and Rauner maintaining a 2 point lead. I think he's got this.

HD-81
Keith R. Matune   50.6%
Ron Sandack       49.4%
84% Reporting

The Tea Party may have their next confirmed kill in the extinction of the moderates.

It's a shame that it gives Moderate R's one more reason not to support gay marriage. Although I think we're done with the major legislative battles for that issue for the time being.

To be fair, Rep. Sullivan survived his challenge up in Libertyville/Mundelein, and it hasn't been an issue for Cross in the Treasury race.

Cross' opponent Bob Grogan pledged not to make it an issue, and lived up to that pledge.

Indeed, but he was still pretty well known for that vote. Also Sullivan won by quite a bit in 51.

The primary has been called for Bruce Rauner. 40-37-15-7

If the election was a week later, would Dillard have won? He outperformed the polls quite drastically.

Map looking something like Obama's map in 2012 right now. Rauner killed it in Chicagoland and NW Illinois, Dillard basically swept downstate. Rutherford took his home county and Brady took the far-right area around Effingham.

()

CREDIT: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=742076

Not necessarily. There was a big GOTV for inds and Dems to take GOP ballots for Dillard as the anti-Rauner. Polls can't catch that. There was also a bleed off of part of Brady's vote when it was clear who the most likely socon winner would be, and that might have continued going forward. The best thing for Dillard would have been for Rutherford to announce his withdrawal from the race, and they would not have gone to Rauner but split between Dillard and Brady.

Quinn lost a number of downstate counties.

Sandack pulled through!

Hopefully, this prompts politicians to change the system so that there is a runoff. Clearly Hynes would have beaten Quinn in 2010 and Dillard would have won in 2014, had there been one. There should never be a case where an endangered incumbant should never be primaried again. Reflected in his poor turnout numbers.

Runoffs are considered expensive since in most years it requires an additional election. Would a top-two open primary (CA-style) have produced a better result?

Rauner may have won the GOP primary, but Pat Quinn was the real winner last night.  This race just got a lot uglier for Republicans.

Seriously?  Rauner is a much weaker candidate than Dillard would have been.

I think the idea is that Democrats think Dillard would be a more acceptable governor to them than Rauner would, and they know there's a high chance of Quinn losing.

BTW: Turnout in IL was only 16-17% of RV ...

There are 7.5 Mio. RV, but only 1.25 Mio. voted.

Results...

Democratic Primary
Pat Quinn (Inc.)
Tio Hardiman

()


Republican Primary

Bruce Rauner
Kirk Dillard
Bill Brady
Dan Rutherford

()
CREDIT: OurCampaigns.com


Very strong regional divides, as has become the norm with Illinois politics.

Rauner is not the worst candidate could've put up: with Rutherford being scandal-ridden, and Brady far too conservative for the state, Rauner is a better fit AND he has more big business on his side. That being said, Dillard would've neutralized union support and probably beat Quinn in a wash, so that's sad. Nevertheless, I think Rauner has a shot at this, but he's already said some pretty toxic things.

So Bruce Rauner is the next governor of Illinois...

I left the atlas key on the Illinois map since it would be confusing to read some numbers (like how Rutherford has either >50% or >20%).

The next 1.5 months will be very boring: Only some FL House special election primary and the DC primary.

Next important stop: NC (May 6)

Lovely. That's literally what she has on the front page of her twitter.

The one with bananas as the cover photo? I'm pretty sure that's a troll account.

I thought it was for sure too, but it actually looks pretty real.

Burnam is contesting his defeat, claiming that the victor Ramon Romero committed vote fraud with regard to absentee ballots in winning the heavily Hispanic district.

OH results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OH_Governor_0506.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Pretty event-less primaries in Indiana and Ohio. IN Democrats don't even have a candidate for Treasurer where Richard Mourdock is term-limited. All statewide races only have one candidate for both sides otherwise. North Carolina on the other hand is going to be fun to watch the republican senate primary.

Ed FitzGerald winning his primary easily against an irrelevant opponent.

So far the ballot measure (http://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Bonds_to_Fund_Public_Infrastructure_Amendment,_Issue_1_%28May_2014%29) is winning overwhelmingly.

Walter Jones' last term may be coming up soon: he's only at 52%. Even if he beats Griffin, he probably won't survive a second time.

And Aiken may not even win his primary: I thought he was close to a sure thing.

Votes in OH:

FitzGerald, Edward (D)    358,312    
   83.19%
Ealy, Larry (D)    72,408    
   16.81%
Total Votes Cast    430,720    

...

Kasich, John (R)    550,618    
   100.00%
Total Votes Cast    550,618    

http://vote.ohio.gov/Results.aspx?race=Governor

John Boehner btw wins with 71.5% of the vote.

The only Ohio primary that's somewhat notable is that David Joyce held off Tea Party candidate Matt Lynch in the OH-14 Republican Primary (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2014/05/rep_dave_joyce_withstandssuccu.html). Lynch probably would have had more difficulty in the general election than Joyce, who has one of the most moderate voting records of any Republican in Congress, and fits the views of his district well.

That was actually a pretty weak showing by Joyce considering his opponent.

Him and Rodney Davis both had weak showing mainly because it was their first primary election since taking office, and are basically incumbents in name only unless/until they win in November.

I think Lynch would have won if this primary was in 2012, or even if neither of the two was an incumbent. Lynch had both the Tea Party and Ohio Right to Life behind him, while Joyce had LaTourette. The Republican base, even in OH-14, is probably closer to Lynch than Joyce ideologically. I think what saved Joyce was the realization that a vote for Lynch may very well be a vote for Michael Wager.

NE Governor results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NE_Governor_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NE other statewide results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NE_Page_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WV statewide results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WV_Page_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

With 6% in, Ricketts leads Bruning 30-27 with Foley in 3rd at 19% and McCoy at 17%. Bruning is the endorsed candidate in this race from term-limited Governor Heineman, but Rickett has the cash advantage from his wealthy father. Ricketts lost a Senate race in 2006 to Ben Nelson and Bruning lost the primary in 2012. Bruning is also the same "Stand Your Ground" Attorney General who filed a lawsuit against the ACA and has views on abortion that make Rick Berg seem reasonable. Still, I'm hoping Bruning takes out the self-funder.

In the Treasurer race, Don Stenberg (R), is coasting to re-election against Costello who works as treasurer of Douglas County. This is a massive sign that the storms really did hurt Costello here.

Secretary of State John Gale (R) goes unopposed in his primary to no surprise.

In the Attorney General race, Doug Peterson (R), a Lincoln lawyer (not the NFL guy) leads the field with 31% of the vote to replace Bruning. Dems haven't held this seat since Truman was President, so Democrats obviously have no chance at the open seat.

And the Auditor race seems to be going the way of State Senator Charlie Janssen (R) who originally was in the Governor race this year.

Bruning s the "moderate" Republican with the best chance to win, but he is lagging behind Ricketts.  Hard to imagine that GOP voters would not choose their three term AG who set a record for avoiding costly losing suits to the US Supreme Court like his predecessor, Stenberg.  Bruning needs to win big in Douglas and Sarpy County (Omaha and suburbs south of the city) and Lancaster County (Lincoln).  Omaha is about half counted and I'm not sure he can pass Ricketts.

Ricketts would surely win in November baring an Akin gaffe.  In contrast, Bruning wouldn't even need to campaign.

More than a 1/3 in: Ricketts and Bruning both at 27%, Ricketts 393 votes ahead!

Ricketts: 27.3%
Bruning: 26.7%
McCoy: 20.9%
Foley: 17.6%
Slone: 4.1%
Carlson: 3.4%

This is close

Yes, it is sooo close.  I think I saw that Bruning had pulled within about 250 votes.  But he is losing Douglas County by 11% with about 60% of the vote still out.  Bruning is winning Lancaster County by only 3% with perhaps 65% still to count there.  Bruning seems to be carrying most of the small western Nebraska counties by small margins.  I'm unsure if it will be enough for him to claim a narrow win.

With 61% in:
Ricketts 39,622 26.7
Bruning 39,381 26.5
McCoy 31,655 21.3
Foley 25,722 17.3

I'm going to love to make a map of this.

Can't wait to see a county map!

County results at this site:  http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_county/NE_Governor_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

I'll see who wins in the morning. But in the meantime, Doug Peterson has won the open Attorney General primary, and Charlie Janssen has won for Auditor.

I think it's safe to call it for Ricketts, because, although the margin is close, he is getting a large margin out of Douglas County and it only has half its precincts reporting and Ricketts's (?) margin should grow larger and larger as the night goes on.

The race has been called for Ricketts :P

I'm surprised the NE-GOP didn't throw Ricketts under a bus after his landslide defeat in 2006.

Lee Terry only won his primary by 6. I think he's headed toward a loss in the general.

Why was it so close in the first place?

He's always been an exceptionally weak incumbent (reminds me a bit of John Sullivan, but in a less Republican district).  His comments about the government shutdown might've simply been the last straw.

I mean, he won by only 2 points in 2012. Offing Terry is a very serious Democratic prospect (or should be), especially since Ashford seems like a solid candidate.

()

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/05/14/this-west-virginia-17-year-old-just-beat-an-incumbent-state-delegate/?tid=pm_pop

It's interesting that Arkansas (primary this coming Tuesday, May 27), this year at least, has its (primary (the only runoff Arkansas has)) runoff (where necessary, and there are 3-way Republican primaries for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General this year, plus some in both parties for some legislative seats I'm sure) only three weeks later, Tuesday, June 10.  South Carolina has only a two weeks between it's primary on June 10 and it's (primary) runoff on Tuesday, June 24, and as both dates are in June I imagine that 14-day gap is the same regardless of which of how the days of the week and dates of the year add up.

Interestingly, and I looked into this because Maine's primary is on the 2nd Tuesday in June, for any n, the nth Tuesday in June will always fall the same number of weeks before the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (Election Day).  For the 2nd Tuesday it's 21 weeks (147 days).  The same would apply (as far as days or weeks and days goes) for a primary or primary runoff the first any other day or the week after the nth Tuesday in June (or the nth other day or the week after the first Tuesday in June).  To have that property, a day based off a day in another month would have to be based off a Friday in January, a Monday (like Election Day) in February or March, a Thursday in April, a Saturday in May (would work well for Louisiana, except for how early it is for a state where it's jungle primary can be the only election for a given office), a Thursday in July, a Sunday in August, a Wednesday in September, a Friday in October, a Monday in November (for some general election runoff from here on out), a Wednesday in December (Louisiana's runoff for congressional elections is on the first Saturday after the first Wednesday in December, always five weeks after Election Day when it's congressional jungle primaries are held), or a Saturday in the following January (Georgia's general election runoff is by law I guess 9 weeks after Election Day, but that will always be the first Tuesday after the first Saturday in January).

Georgia has that same 9-week gap between it's primary and primary runoff.  It's primary is always 24 weeks before Election Day (the first/third Tuesday after the third/first Saturday in May, or simply the last Tuesday in May, it turns out (that's being based off the first Tuesday in June)), and it's general election is the 15 weeks before Election Day (the first/third Tuesday after the third/first Thursday in July).  Texas has a 12-week gap, this year at least, although I'm not sure if that's a constant or not.  North Carolina (this year at least) and South Dakota each have a 10-week gap, although the 35% a candidate needs to get to avoid a runoff in South Dakota is even lower than North Carolina's 40%.  The wording here (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G14/SD) suggests that South Dakota's runoff provisions only extend to primaries for Governor and both houses of Congress, and South Dakota doesn't seem to have the political culture (or the multiple congressional districts) that would lead to a primary winner's vote percentage for one of these races to fall below the 35% threshold often.  Oklahoma has the same 9-week gap as Georgia (this year at least), although without Georgia's provision for a general election runoff.  Alabama has a six-week gap (this year at least), while Mississippi has the same the same three-week gap as Arkansas, and as Mississippi has both its primary and (primary) runoff elections in June I imagine there's the same gap election year to election year.  I had calculated an average but then I remembered that some of these states don't have Gubernatorial elections this year (and I had forgotten South Dakota at that point), so I gave up on that.

A link to the current page of the equivalent thread on the Congressional Elections board: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188581.200

May 20 primary results:

AR

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AR_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

GA

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/GA_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

ID:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/ID_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

KY:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/KY_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

OR:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OR_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

PA:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/PA_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

First person in my precinct to vote, I beat all the old people.

Fun fact: my family made up 20% of early voters in one precinct.

My predictions:

ID: 82% Otter, 8% Brown, 7% Fulcher, 3% Bayes

OR: Richardson wins with 56%

PA: 43% Wolf, 30% Schwartz, 16% McCord, 11% McGinty

I'm gonna go out on a limb for the Idaho Gubernatorial election:

Idaho - 53% Otter, 40% Fulcher, 4% Brown, 3% Bayes

During Otter's last primary, he only survived by 27 (I know, right), and it seems like the challenges to him are only getting more serious.

It'll be interesting to see who replaces Kingston, Broun, and Gingrey.

Mike Ross vs. Asa Hutchison for Arkansas Governor. No surprise.

Wolf is getting over 50% in Philadelphia with the first results.

Politico calls it for Wolf. He leads Schwartz 55-22.

Ugh, even with the west out, I don't see how Critz comes back from trailing 48-17 with 65% in :(

PA-LG called for Stack.

Arkansas AG on the R side may go to a runoff.

IDAHO Gov is by far the most interesting race of the night. I love to see Brown or Bayes lauch their 2016 presidential campaings.

Otters up 55-40, Looks like he'll win yet another term as Governor, and judging that he is one of three republicans to vote against the Patriot Act, that's a good thing.

IDAHO GOP Gov. primay 100% reporting

  Governor

  REP Walt Bayes                2,761       1.78%
  REP Harley D. Brown        5,084       3.27%
  REP Russell M. Fulcher    67,702     43.58%
  REP C.L. "Butch" Otter    79,786     51.36%

So a York/Philadelphia ticket?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TX_Page_0527.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Wow, Ace of Spades is already projecting Patrick for LG.

With early voting so dominate in Texas, that's not hard to do.

I'm glad the far-right ass I sympathize with beat the far-right ass who I dislike on a personal level.

Even in a lot of the closer downballot races, we pretty much know the result already...

AP calls LG for Patrick.

AG called for Paxton.

Looks like Patricks controversies were canceled out by the terrible, desperate campaign run by Dewhurst. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPzz60a7As8) I mean, seriously, what the hell was he thinking?

I thought it would at least be somewhat close.

Downballot...

RIP Stefani Carter.

And Democratic presumptive AgComm nominee Jim Hogan is becoming more and more famous for how incredibly avoidant and obscure he is. (Google him!)

I thought Carter was supposed to be a rising star? Did she lose for any real reason or was it just because she looks like a Democrat?

She bailed on a going-nowhere bid for Railroad Commis, went back to her district where other candidates had already announced. During the course of the primary in her district she made some gaffes that, along with appearing flaky, lost her the nomination.

Yes to your first question.

I know well have a map in the Election Info section soon, but I made a heat map of Dewhurst's margins. (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=DisasterlyUnlovelinessDanegelts) Red = winning, blue = losing.

()

June 3 results:

Alabama (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AL_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

California (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/CA_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Iowa (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/IA_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Mississippi (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MS_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Montana (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MT_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

New Jersey (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NJ_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

New Mexico (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NM_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

South Dakota (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/SD_Page_0603.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

From what I've seen from the New Jersey Senate Primary, Murray Sabrin may finally win his first GOP primary.

Here are the unofficial results of the GOP primary for Idaho's 2nd Congressional District:
()

Source: http://www.sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/ENR/menu.html

Confused man Parker Griffith up 61-39 with 25% in.

Also, proud 'Murican Dale Peterson down 46-25.

Also worth noting that King is up 33-24-22 on Rael and Webber, respectively. 12% in

Parker Griffith, the same Democrat who stole a bunch of Pelosi's money in his 2008 House race and was reinstated into the same party after leaving it for Republicans and has a 95% ACU rating, unfortunately will be the AL Democratic Party's nominee against Gov. Bentley who's projected to beat his two GOP challengers easily, 88-6-5. Kevin Bass, the other Democrat, had a good performance to say the least though, losing 61-39.

In South Dakota, Gov. Daugaard (R), a popular and uncontroversial GOP Governor, beats his primary challenger easily 82-18 with 44% in. It looks like State Rep. Susan Wismer will be the Democratic nominee leading 56-44, but that hasn't been called yet. Either way, a safe R seat.

And Gary King now leads with 33% of the vote with a small double digit lead over Rael and Webber, but only 12% is reporting. If King does get the nomination, then it will probably just be a matter of name ID and I would imagine a lot of Democrats will stay at home because of King in November.

Called for Griffith in AL.

Ivey is cruisin at 62% with 37% in.

The anti-King Democrats couldn't coalesce around anyone. Either way, it wasn't as if Dems were going to win New Mexico.

In early results for California, we have

Governor:
Brown 59.6%
Kashkari 16.0%
Donnelly 12.5%


Controller (crazy 4-way race with 2 Ds and 2 Rs):
Betty Yee 24.0%
Perez 21.8%
Evans 21.3%
Swearengin 21.2%

Some counties in northern California are voting on whether to form 'Jefferson' state.

Politico finally calls it for King, who is currently ahead of Webber 35-23.

Brown is winning every county except for Modoc, where Donnelly leads.

Yee pulls to 8200 votes out of second.

49.1% in...

The CA state GOP might not be out of this just yet, we might have a runoff between two Republicans!

Swearengin (R) 23.6%
Evans (R) 22.2%
Yee (D) 22.0%
Perez (D) 20.0%
Wells (G) 5.7%
Blair (D) 5.5%

The third wheel Democrat and Green candidate might suck enough votes from the two Dem frontrunners to put the two Republicans in the runoff.

Yee slides down to trailing by more than 9K.

Donnelly concedes.

Brown/Kashkari it is.

If there are two GOP candidates in the general for Controller in November, you can bet Perez is going to be eating some tough [inks] from the party.

If there are two, the California Democratic party needs to put their full forces behind repealing our idiotic top two system. The results are still early, but it's unsettling that 2 Republicans lead for the Controller race, and aren't far off from leading in CA-31 again.

Epic battle for 2nd place for CA Controller. The Democrats desperately need one of their candidates to secure a place on the November ballot.

   John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
604,225   21.6%
   Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
604,959   21.6%
   David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
611,382   21.8%

Perez looks like he might take 2nd. It's 91.9% reporting statewide versus 87.9% in his home term of Los Angeles. However,  there's probably a million uncounted absentees. I voted for Yee.

   John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
616,611   21.6%
   Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
613,739   21.5%
   David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
620,955   21.8%

Note that first place is obviously

Ashley Swearengin
(Party Preference: REP)
695,852   24.4%

With any luck those absentees will break Yee's way. I can live with Perez but only barely -- this whole race was just a huge power grab by him.

Agreed that Yee is the most qualified. Obviously with a possible million or so absentees, it will be still be too close to call this even once it hits 100% reporting.  However, I do think Perez is the most likely to win it. Here are the latest.

    John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)   624,843   
21.6%
    Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)   620,834   
21.5%
    David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)   625,674   
21.6%

With 98.8% reporting Perez takes 2nd as predicted. Los Angeles is 97.4% reporting.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)   634,112   
21.7%
    Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)   628,496   
21.5%
    David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)   633,074   
21.6%

Wow! Perez made the runoff by about 2,400 votes out of nearly 3,000,000 cast.

Yep. Perez is still up with about 2400 with 100% in. Wow. And last night it looked like he would be the GOP's spoiler in this race.

The fact that it came as close as it did to an all GOP election for Controller, perhaps the CA Democrats should start thinking about repealing their awful voting system.

Aren't the democrats the ones who put that system into place? It's hilarious they keep being screwed by it.

I'm not sure this is over yet. Absentee ballots dropped of on election day are generally not counted right away.


It was a Proposition. The Democrats and Arnold did refer it to the voters as part of Republican Abel Maldonado's extortion for voting for a budget. Too bad that the Proposition reducing the 2/3rds majority to simple for passing a budget didn't pass a little earlier. I think all 6 political parties opposed the Proposition.

I think it's probably safe to say that Perez will make the runoff. Don't absentees tend to favor Democrats?

Schwarzenegger and Maldonado were the only two people who publicly backed prop 14 in 2010 to chance the primary system. The legislature had to stomach sending the prop to the voters as part of a compromise to get the budget through. Basically everyone prayed it wouldn't pass, but it did 53-47ish.

I thought it still took a 2/3 majority to pass a budget? No reason to change that rule since the legislature's majorities tend to be so lopsided anyway.

Absentees favoring Democrats certainly wouldn't prevent Yee from taking second.

A different Proposition also passed in 2010 dropped it to a simple majority to pass a budget.

That statement confuses me. Everyone prayed it wouldn't pass, but it did? Doesn't that seem to imply that a majority of people wanted it to pass?

I'm guessing party leadership didn't want it to pass.

Even if Perez/Yee sneak through, at the time of this post Perez's lead over Evans has reduced to 1924 votes. California needs to do its best to get rid of top two. It's just terrible election policy. Maybe we should do a popular referendum. My bet is that top two would die if it went up for a vote in 2016.

The problem is not with top 2, it's with abysmal laziness of Democratic electorate to turn out in ANY elections, but few chosen. And i don't want to give a bunch of hyperpolarised (on the verge to being "crazy") "activists" in both major parties a right to decide who will be next Governor, Senator or Congressman. So, i am absolutely in favor of "top 2", which gives indies, who dislike both parties (like me), a much better choice.

Hopefully it could be defeated. It passed on the June 2010 ballot. Strangely it got 53.74%, but passed in all but 3 counties, 2 of which were San Francisco and Orange.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_14_(2010)


LOL, 2 Republicans and no one else isn't much of a choice.

So, to introduce myself, I am a 19 year old Democrat from the East Bay. Yesterday was my first voting election. Today I joined this site. In my free time I play around with ideas from elections, so here is what I got from the numbers today. Sorry that I am partisan and include some opinion in my psephology which should be a non-partisan practice,but nobody can be perfect.

First I studied the performance of Neel Kashkari vs. Donnelly by county.  Here is the link to results of anybody who is curious/wants to check my work: vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor/county/all/. My original hypothesis was that Donnelly would outperform Kashkari in more Republican areas.So I divided the counties into 3 groups. 1. Brown outperforms state avg. Brown>.545. 2. Brown mildly under performs .545>Brown>.445 and 3. Brown severely under performs, Brown<.445.  This did not lead to anything because group 1 had Donnelly beating Kashkari (D>K) 10/18 of the time. In two it was (5/12) and in 3 it was (13/27). This went nowhere.

So I decided to take a look at places where D>K. The following counties are where D>K. Alameda, Alpine, Butte, Contra Costa, Del Norte, Glenn, Imperial, Kern, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Merced, Modoc, Mono, Napa, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, San Bernardino, San Francisco, San Luis Obispo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sonoma, Tehama, Trinity. The pattern I discerned from this is that the more conservative candidate won in areas that were either sparsely populated or so Democratic that Republicans could not create a normal party structure. The exceptions being San Bernardino, Kern and arguably San Luis Obispo and Shasta. Coming off of this hypothesis I decided to look at places where the difference between Kashkari and Donnelly was wider than the state as a whole. So K-D>4.2. The following counties qualified: Calaveras, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Kings, Los Angeles, Madera, Orange, Placer, Riverside, Sacramento, San Diego, San Joaquin, Sutter, Tulare, Ventura, Yolo, and Yuba. Despite only containing 18/58 of the state's counties. This group of counties includes almost every major Californian city outside the Bay Area. In the D/K groups the only cities in the top 20 population wise outside of the Bay Area are San Bernardino and Bakersfield.

So in conclusion, in the state of California, based off of the 2014 gubernatorial primary, when faced with a choice between a Tea Partier and a Moderate, The Tea Partier will win in extremely liberal places and sparsely populated areas. The Moderate will win in cities that are conservative enough to have an established Republican structure in place. I will look through other results later this week in similarly built states to see if this holds. Feedback is appreciated. Hopefully this made some sense.

Not a big one. But there was an ample choice in primary. Most people decided that 2 Republicans were the most deserving people in this paarticular district (in many other these were 2 Democrats). That's absolutely fine with me. What people like me got BEFORE: a pair of candidates, chosen by "activists", both of which they frequently despised, and voted for those, whom they hated least. Is THAT a choice????

^Welcome!

Welcome, bayareademocrat, and great first (or second) post!

This makes a lot of sense and thanks for good analysis. IMHO, the reason why hardliners like Donnelly win in the most liberal areas of the state (like Bay Area) is very simple - few remaining Republicans there (or, at least, active part of them) tend to be a "diehard" type, living in "homes attacked and besieged by enemy" - and vote correspondingly. Traditionally, many Bay Area Republicans (which were elected from area until 1990 or, in few cases, until app. 2000) were of very moderate, even openly progressive variety, but older of them are now dead, and for their children and grandchildren there is very little sense to stay Republican.

Sounds about right. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=10279)

Exactly what i meant. And it's a pity - in the past this area supplied excellent and thoughtful Republican legislators anyone (even Democrats) could be proud of...

The turnout is really low in the primary. And you have at most 2 choices in November. I was forced to abstain in the 2012 Senate race for lack of a non horrible candidate.

Bay area Democrats certainly go right-wing enough with noted anti-atheist bigot Eric Swallwell.

CA Controller maps:

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2nd place:

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In some sense Swallwell occupies exactly the niche moderate-to-liberal Republicans of the past recently had. No surprises here. The "business Democrats" of today (of which there are lots now) are lineal descendants of them...

Good hypothesis Smoltchanov. I'm just thinking about the Republicans from around here (Alameda Co.) that I know (all about 15 of them). All but four are Tea Party types, and all they do is complain about living in such a liberal area. So it makes sense that the moderate Republicans in the area would just switch to DTS or Dem.

Sorry, too vague. I meant every political party in the state condemned the prop.

So I guess that I'm on summer and have nothing better to do, I will post what I have here. Today I examined something I found troubling as a Democrat in the statewide elections Tuesday. We have astonishingly terrible discipline. Not knowing how to vote nearly (and still could but likely wont) cost us a candidate in the Controller's race and gave an embarrassing amount of the vote to Leland Yee in the Secretary of State's vote. This is problematic. As a result I wanted to map the offenders and see if the problem is more or less localized or if it is statewide. The measurement I used is overperformance based on partisan vote. To form this I took the "bad" candidate's number in a county and divided it by total Democratic votes in that county.
First the results for the Secretary of State's Race: Yee's proportion of Democratic share statewide was .1884. So any county Where Yee>.1884 is on my sh**t list. The counties were Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Del Norte, El Dorado, Fresno, Inyo, Kern, Kings, Lassen, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Modoc, Mono, Monterey, Nevada, Orange, Placer, Plumas, Sacramento, San Benito, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Solano, Trinity, Tulare, and Tuolumne. This makes up 35 of the 58 (.603) counties in the state. The GOP candidate won 31 of these for (31/35) (.8857). He won 40 counties statewide so .775 of his counties were Yee overperformers. Absent from the bad list is a vast majority (14/18) of districts captured by the main Democrat, Padilla.

Then I moved onto the disaster of the night, the still unresolved race for Controller. Nobody on this site has mentioned the stinker candidate that could have sunk us here, Tammy Blair. A completely random Democrat, who is not in line with any real movement in our state. Blair somehow gained 5.2% of the vote statewide. When I isolated this to only Democratic votes she receives .1082 of the Democratic vote. She overperformed in 41 counties, of which 37 of these went red. In the counties were she underperformed her Dem avg. (Alameda, Contra Costa, Fresno, Los Angeles, Marin, Monterey, Nevada, Placer, San Benito, San Diego, San Francisco, San Luis Obispo, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Sonoma and Yolo). The Democrat won 12 times. In Fresno, the low Democratic amounts could be explained partially due to the fact that the mayor of Fresno was a Republican nominee and therefore only the hardest core Democrats would not be voting for her. Otherwise it strikes me as a very geographical explanation. All three major metropolitan areas in the state (The Bay Area, Los Angeles, and San Diego) were underperformers for this race. I am still trying to think of a theory on why some counties have better inner party discipline than others, but for now my hypothesis is the following, typically more Democratic areas will have better party discipline than less Democratic areas. This is especially true in the Bay Area and Los Angeles, the two areas of the state where the Democratic Party spends the most resources on turnout and information. Please comment your feedback, criticisms, and theories on why this difference occurs. Message me if you want the full data.

The second Republican is narrowly in second place for CA Controller now. Democratic turnout was poor, and that's very bad with the stupid top two system. It really needs to be repealed.

Current numbers.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
665,109   
21.6%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
660,103   
21.4%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
666,252   
21.6%

How many ballots are left to count?

About a million.

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

Hopefully since LA (Perez territory) makes up the largest portion of uncounted ballots, they will come in strong for him. Or is that wishful thinking?

The late votes have always been consistently D-leaning. They drive up D numbers more often than they drive up R numbers.

Yes, but the idea is that LA is Perez's home turf, which should boost his numbers over the other two Democrats' numbers.

I wouldn't get too excited about Los Angeles. I think their share of outstanding ballots is less than their share of total ballots.

However, uncounted ballots tend to be a little more Democratic for other reasons.

June 10 results:

Arkansas (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AR_Page_0610.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Maine (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/ME_Page_0610.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Nevada (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NV_Page_0610.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

North Dakota (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/ND_Page_0610.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

South Carolina (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/SC_Page_0610.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Virginia (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/VA_Page_0610.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

The second Republican was leading earlier in the day

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
685,026   
21.6%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
679,144   
21.4%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
685,686   
21.6%

But now Perez leads again

   John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
725,557   
21.5%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
722,380   
21.5%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
722,832   
21.5%

The second Republican drops to 4th for the first time that I've noticed.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
732,688   
21.5%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
730,928   
21.5%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
729,091   
21.4%

I didn't bother to comment on this but New Mexico really needs to start doing runoff elections.

King is that bad?

Betty Yee retakes the lead for 2nd place for California Controller. All 6 permutations of the ordering have now occurred. Perez isn't far behind, but the good news is that the second Republican isn't looking too good any more.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
751,340   
21.7%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
751,691   
21.7%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
740,576   
21.3%

South Carolina statewide results as of 9:30pm:

Adj. Gen. (R)
Bob Livingston (i) has won reelection in what could be the last time the voters get to elect the head of our State's armed forces.  He currently has no opponents in November and there will be amendment to make the office appointed that will be on the ballot this November.

Ag. Comm. (R)
Hugh Weathers (i) has won reelection against Joe Farmer.

Lt. Gov (R)
Henry McMaster is in the runoff against either Pat McKinney or Mike Campbell, but it is too close to call right now and conceivably could go to a recount for second place.

Supt. of Ed (D)
Shiela Gallagher will be heading to the runoff against most likely Tom Thompson, but it might not be impossible for Jerry Govan to pull it out.

Supt. of Ed (R)
Sally Atwater and Molly Spearman have a lead over Sheri Few for the runoff that will be between two of these three. Most likely it will be Atwater v. Spearman but it is too soon to count Few out.  The other five in the race are out.

Treasurer (R)
Loftis Curtis (i) has won renomination and reelection.

I'm comfortable calling the Democratic Superintendent race as being between Gallagher and Thompson now.  Sheri Few is falling further behind on the Republican side, but she isn't dead yet. Still too close to call who gets the second runoff spot in the Republican Lt. Gov. race.

Hutchinson starts up by 1 vote in NV-LG (448-447).

Big dump. Hutchinson up 53-39.

It's definitely an Atwater/Spearman runoff in the GOP Supt. of Education race.  Looks like we're headed to an automatic recount in the GOP Lt. Gov race to see who faces Henry McMaster in the runoff.

Currently NOTA leads in the Nevada Democratic Primary. LOL

AoSHQDD calls NV-LG for Hutchison.

We'll see, but still, good news!

Ralston says Lowden isn't gonna overcome Hutchison's 11K vote lead.

^ Excellent.

Yep, Lowden is conceding. There it is.

That's a no-brainer.  Lowden is not even winning most of the cow counties, which she would need to win big to offset Clark and Washoe.  I'm surprised the AP hasn't called it yet.

"None of these candidates" is still "winning" the NV-D Gubernatorial primary, 30-25 over Goodman.  Too bad it is meaningless - Goodman will be the nominee by virtue of being the human receiving the most votes.

What's up with Nevada?  Did only joke Democrats run in the primary, or is this a non-binding concession to Sandoval, or...?

Does Sandoval now run against "None of these candidates" (the winner in the DEM primary) in the General Election ?

:P

What does the election law say here ?

It would be funny if NOTC were the Dem. candidate.

Both

Not surprised by Lowden's defeat.  She was hit hard by some pretty scathing TV ads here, focusing on her donations to Harry Reid way back when, and that she still hasn't paid off all her bills from her 2010 Senate campaign.

Yep.  Nobody knows who any of the Democrats are, and nobody cares.  Sandoval is unbeatable, but meanwhile the other statewide offices and the Senate could go either way.

This might be a stupid question, but could one hypothetically get on both parties primary ballots, for whatever bizarre reason?

I think. With a write in campaign?

Depends on the rules in each state.  The most recent example I can give you is Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT), who also won the Republican nomination in 2008 through write-ins.

Yes, but you'd need to be an idiot to try that in South Carolina.  We don't allow write-in votes in primaries, so you'd need to file in both primaries paying double the usual filing fee.  Worse, under our sore loser law, if you lost either primary, you'd be blocked from running in November, even if you won the other party's nomination.

Anyway, while in theory, the automatic recount could change things, It looks like the SCGOP Lt. Gov runoff will be between Henry McMaster and Pat McKinney as I really doubt there are 250 votes that could be found to close the gap between Pat McKinney and Mike Campbell.

June 24 results:

Colorado (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/CO_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

FL-19 (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/FL_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Maryland (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MD_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Mississippi (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MS_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

New York (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NY_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Oklahoma (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OK_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

South Carolina (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/SC_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

Utah (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/UT_Page_0624.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)

My predictions:

CO: 34% Beauprez, 31% Tancredo, 24% Gessler, 11% Kopp

MD-D: 52% Brown, 30% Gansler, 15% Mizeur, 3% Others
MD-R: 68% Hogan, 32% Others

MS Senate Runoff Prediction:

McDaniel - 53%
Cochran - 47%

CO-Gov:

Tancredo - 35%
Beauprez - 33%
Gessler - 23%
Kopp - 9%

MS-Sen (Runoff):

McDaniel - 52%
Cochran - 48%

He's just an uninspiring Martha Coakley type with a ceiling of support. This is I think the fourth or fifth time he's run for Governor/Senator, each time he gets his base 35-40% to Udall/Richardson/Denish 60-65%. This time the field was split and his usual support was enough to win it.

He would not have won a runoff.

King should seriously be running in NM-2. Pearce is a nightmare

On a side note, Gary King has never lost a Democratic primary before. He has never run for US Senate and this is his first go for Governor. The only election he has ever lost was for US House in 04.

Anyone got new exit polling in the Democratic primary for Maryland Governor 2014 ?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193644.msg4191563#msg4191563

That's actually not true.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=29608

Ah, ok, so I didn't go far back enough - he lost the 1998 Democratic primary for Governor. I just wanted to point out that King has never run for Senate and has never lost anything to Udall, Richardson, or Denish, so what King was saying didn't really make any sense...

No he has.  He rarely makes it past exploratory stages though.

He's tried for a long time to be elected to a major office and has failed. He already failed against Pearce, too.

Trust me, Gary King is a terrible candidate loved more by party officials than voters.

Just voted. No waiting at all.

Henry McMaster looks like he will be the South Carolina Lieutenant Governor, he currently leads Campbell 2-1.

Mississippi Senate (Runoff):
Chris McDaniel - 58%
Thad Cochran - 42%

Maryland Governor:
Democratic Primary
Anthony Brown - 54%
Doug Gansler - 33%
Heather Mizeur - 11%
Other - 2%

Republican Primary
Larry Hogan - 48%
David Craig - 25%
Charles Lollar - 17%
Ron George - 7%
Other - 2%


Colorado Governor
Republican Primary
Tom Tancredo - 38%
Bob Beauprez - 29%
Scott Gessler - 20%
Mike Kopp - 13%

Oklahoma Governor
Republican Primary
Mary Fallin - 86%
Chad Moody - 11%
Dax Ewbank - 3% (Love that name xD)

Oklahoma Senate (S)
Republican Primary
*James Lankford - 48%
*T.W. Shannon - 41%
Randy Brogdon - 8%
Other - 3%

Democratic Primary
Constance Johnson - 44%
Jim Rogers - 38%
Patrick Hayes - 18%

Oklahoma Senate (G)
Republican Primary
Jim Inhofe - 79%
Erick Wyatt - 9%
Rob Moye - 5%
D. Jean McBride-Samuels - 4%
Evelyn Rogers - 3%


- McDaniel I think should be able to pull out a double digit win over Cochran.

- Brown has all of the establishment support behind him in the state, has name ID, has a record to go off of in O'Malley's successful administration (especially with social issues) and should be able to win fairly easily over the anti-O'Malley candidate and the progressive, Emily's List candidate.

- The CO Dem establishment wisely pulled a McCaskill and ran "negative" ads against Tancredo calling him the true conservative, so he should pull it out over Beauprez, hopefully.

- With the cases of Inhofe and Fallin, we're not the only ones who hate them, so there will be defectees, but their candidates are all perennials and don't stand a chance at knocking either off. Lankford/Shannon and Johnson/Rogers I believe go to a runoff - Johnson got some late support apparently, so I could be wrong.

As expected, voting was light today and I noticed they didn't bother to set up as many machines as before.  My sister voted shortly after noon, and she was the first person to vote in the Democratic runoff in her precinct.  Considering her precinct was 134-6 Rep-Dem in the primary two weeks ago, that's not too surprising.  My own precinct wasn't quite as lopsided 419-26 or 6% Dem as opposed to 4% Dem.


Comparing the results for the two counties already in, Oconee and Edgefield, it's clear McMaster has won, as expected.

Michael Steele should have ran for governor in Maryland; he may have garnered more national interest in this election, but Brown is likely to be the next Maryland governor barring huge GOP turnout in Maryland in November.

MD Gov (D) called from Brown.

I don't know why AP is being so slow on the GOP SC Supt. of Ed. runoff.  Spearman has a solid lead and has won some counties today that Atwater won in the primary.

CO Governor still pretty close

Beauprez - 30%
Tancredo - 27%
Gessler - 24%
Kopp - 19%

Tancredo is conceding.

MD-AG: Frosh up 15 on Cardin with 20%.

AOSHQDD calls CO-Gov for Beauprez.

He didn't seem that optimistic coming about his chances coming into this election.

And Beauprez gets the AP check.

CO GOP nominated a birther. Wonderful. I was hoping for a frustrated voter rise in Kopp's numbers, though I have to say his performance is pretty strong.

MD-AG (Dem) called for Frosh, who beats Cardin.

What's with Tancredo leading in suburban the Denver counties? I would have thought that's where the more moderate Republicans would be?

^ Yeah, odd, but he represented CD6; it took in more of the western/southern Denver suburbs when he held it.

Actual results:

CO: 30% Beauprez, 27% Tancredo, 23% Gessler, 20% Kopp

MD-D: 51% Brown, 24% Gansler, 22% Mizeur, 3% Others

:)

Baeuprez is a birther?? :o

I think that in Colorado, a lot of those moderate Republicans aren't Republicans anymore.

Yep, he even said about Obama "if he IS an American, different kind of American than anyone else I know" (http://kdvr.com/2014/03/30/dems-unearth-beauprez-birther-comments-from-2010/)

And this was the "sane Establishment" candidate?!?! Jesus f***ing Christ, Colorado GOP, get it together!

They also nominated crazy Tea Partiers for 2 swing districts in the state Senate held by Democrats. It's a shame really (not for me of course I'm glad they did, but for them), because there definitely has been blowback against Dems over gun control and the GOP had a big chance to capitalize on that by taking the Senate, and maybe even the House and Governorship, but they blew it. Also worth mentioning is that Beauprez was the nominee in 2006 as well and lost by 17 to Bill Ritter.

Comparison to 2006 is faulty, Ritter only won by so much that year because it was an EXCELLENT year for democrats, in fact it was so good that the democrats almost won the TN senate race, remember? Hickenlooper won by a wide margin in 2010, but that was only because the republican vote was split between Former Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo, who was running under the consitution party banner, and the actual republican nominee, Buisnessman Dan Maes. Add up the republican vote and the hickenlooper margin goes to 51.01-47.56 (as opposed to 51.01-36.43-11.13), which means that a strong, moderate nominee capable of winning a few more votes would defeated Hickenlooper (Tancredo and Maes are both weak, and the former definitely isn't moderate, I don't know about the latter).

Now, is Beauprez described by the words 'strong and moderate'. Well, definitely not the latter, we'll have to see about the former. In the end, I do believe Hickenlooper will win, however we should understand that the best possible realistic margin for Hickenlooper is the high single digits, and this gubernatorial race should definitely be a target for republicans, and if Gardner starts consistently leading Udall by 3,4 points in the senate race, Hickenlooper might just find himself losing by the slimmest of margins.

Results links for tonight. Results should start coming in pretty soon in NC, AL won't come in aside from maybe a precinct or two until 8 EST.

AL Runoffs:http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AL_Page_0715.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NC Runoffs: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NC_Page_0715.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

For July 22:

GA Senate Runoff Results by county: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/georgia/runoff/july-22/#.U8m1K_nYWS9

Other GA Runoff Results (Superintendent, State House/Senate, U.S. House) - http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/GA_Page_0722.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

KS:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/KS_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MI:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MI_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MO:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MO_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WA:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WA_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Virgin Islands Results: http://www.vivote.gov/Election%202014/EL45%20Run%20Time%200947.HTM
---------------------------

August 5 Politico Results Links:

House: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/house/#.U93RefnYWS8
Senate: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/#.U93RZPnYWS9
Governor: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/governor/#.U93Rc_nYWS8

Poll Closings (P.M.; EST):

KS: Some polls close at 8, rest close at 9.
MO: 8:00
MI: Some polls close at 8, rest close at 9.
WA: 11:00

My prediction for KS:

63% Sam Browncrook
37% Jennifer Winn

My guess is Brownback gets just under 70%, lets say 68-32.

Kobach wins by a similar margin, and Gossage narrowly edges out Shultz and Selzer in the Insurance Commissioner race.

Do you think that SurveyUSA poll was off by that much? they had the primary at 55-37 Brownback.

Their last poll was 60-30.

The local ABC/CW affiliate has called it for Brownback.  He's currently up 61-39.

Ken Selzer has won the GOP Insurance Commissioner race.

A bit disappointed Beverly didn't win, but happy with Morgan's showing. Hopefully tonight is a wake-up call for some of the folks in Topeka.

Governor - GOP Primary (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/KS_Governor_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)
3487 of 3487 Precincts Reporting - 100%

63% Sam Browncrook
37% Jennifer Winn

()

TN results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TN_Page_0807.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

HI results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/HI_Page_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Tennessee's Democratic primary has a bunch of no names for Governor, though surprisingly, a guy by the name of Charles Brown is leading elected county official John McKarney 39-29 in the early returns. The TN Democratic Party is really in a wreck if they really do get a perennial candidate as their nominee tonight, but at least his name is the same as Peanuts lol.

But man do the Republicans have a decision tonight! They're choosing between their incumbent, relatively moderate Republican Governor, a wildlife artist lol, former raccoon owner (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZCrQolAQMI&list=UUGTYj9lo8JThURvb87YgWpA) Mark "Coonrippy" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m2OT9lf_kc&list=UUGTYj9lo8JThURvb87YgWpA) Brown and singer Basil Marceaux.com who will "do his issues" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnx-SqMYknI) if elected. Tough decision. :P

Well, this sucks. Haslam's winning with about 90% of the vote and is already the projected winner. Coonrippy's only getting 6% to Marceaux's 2%. Marceaux was supposed to clean house. :(

Just thought I'd pop in to say that insane state senator Stacey Campfield is getting crushed 68.5%-32.5% by primary challenger Dr. Richard Briggs, according to WATE's webcast coverage.

It's not about Tennessee, but Politico will report live votes coming in for Hawaii, right?

Probably.

The AP's page for Hawaii (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_county/HI_Page_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS) is already up, with test data.  I suspect Politico will follow the AP's lead.  That's where they get their data from, anyway.

LOL, lunatic incumbent Campfield (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stacey_Campfield) has lost to Dr. Richard Briggs, 67%-28%.

They will. There's a picture of Hawaii and Alaska right below the lower 48 states on their election central home page - the live results view won't be enabled until tomorrow afternoon.

It'll be a late night here if it's a close race. Better get some energy drinks so I can power through it. :P

our crowd sourcing army of volunteers will be providing results for both the HI-GOV and HI-SEN Democratic primary, reporting results faster than the AP.

Google "AOSHQDD" for our site and you can follow us on twitter @AOSHQDD

our blog is right leaning, but our election tracking website is nonpartisan

For the Governor and Senate races, I'll use AOSHQDD. Since you're not covering the LG and First Congressional District, I'll use the AP.

I do like your layout though. Nice way of presenting the results.

Wow. Does this mean we can call it for Ige now?

^ Looks like it.

Tsutsui, Shan (i)   Dem   45,117   54%
Hee, Clayton   Dem   29,741   36%

I don't believe in calling races after the first printout. At least wait till the second. :P

It was very useful for the TN primary, especially considering SoS site crapped out and other sources are slow to update. Good job. :)

AP calls it for Ige, too (after just the first printout).

Looking at the primary turnout numbers and the margin by which Ige beat Abercrombie, it seems veryyyyy unlikely that the Republicans will even have a small chance to win the General Election against Ige.

Oh boy.


Hanabusa 48.55% (104,010 votes)
Schatz 49.38% (105,798 votes)

Though looking at the turnout figures, it appears close to one-third of all registered voters came out and voted in the Democratic primary. With ~8,000 registered voters in these two precincts, we would have expected under normal conditions for there to be around 2,700 votes cast here.

On one hand, turnout here - even with the delay - could be down substantially due to the storm. On the other hand, it could go up due to both candidates making a final push. Something tells me the bulk of each will cancel the other out, giving us somewhere between 2,000-3,000 more votes at the end of it all.

AoSHQDD called it for Schatz and it makes sense. Hanabusa would need to get something like 70-95% of likely outstanding votes to pull off an upset.

I'm really surprised how Tsutsui mopped the floor with Hee. I thought it would be alot closer.

CT results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/CT_Page_0812.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MN results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MN_Page_0812.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WI results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WI_Page_0812.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Jeez, Mary Bruke only got 55% of the votes in the primary. Is she really that disliked within her own party?

eric, this is a simulation, not the real results :P.

AP accidentally revealing to the U.S. that elections are rigged Azerbaijani style lol

AOSHQDD calls it for Foley.

He's leading by less than I expected him to and his lead is shrinking, that press conference may be doing damage after all.

Foley is doing worst in Fairfield County, which is in the New York City TV market.  There has been nothing about that press conference on NYC TV - and I've seen zero campaign ads on NYC over-the-air TV.  That suggests the split and (relatively) declining numbers is a geographic thing.  Both are from Fairfield County, but McKinney has greater name recognition there than in the rest of the state as his legislative district is in Fairfield.

Foley is winning almost every town that's fully reported.

AP calls CT-Gov-R for Foley.

At least the Republican Lt. Gov race is pretty close.

Didn't know that, that's interesting.

Matt Adamczyk is running on abolishing the Treasury department in Wisconsin, right now he's leading his opponent Melchert 58-42 for republican nomination.

Bacchiochi, Penny   GOP        22,297   35%
Somers, Heather     GOP       21,970   34%
Walker, David         GOP        20,141   31%

Now, Somers is leading by 127 votes.

Somers neck to neck with Bacchiochi, 34% to 34%. Leads by little over 500 votes with 94% of the vote in.

What's left is in the state's largest cities, Hartford and Bridgeport, where few Republicans live, two precincts in East Lyme, where Somers is winning big, and Norwalk on the shoreline of Fairfield County, where there are some Republicans.  Somers is doing pretty well in the Fairfield County shoreline towns, at a minimum, keeping it close with Bacchiochi.  I think she has it.

AoS calls Minnesota Governor R Primary for Johnson.

100 percent in and still not called

Somers, Heather   GOP   27,178   34%
Bacchiochi, Penny  GOP   26,462   34%
Walker, David        GOP   25,162   32%

Foley only won with 56% ?

LOL.

Interesting to see that State Senator John Lehman only won the DEM LG primary by 10% over Mary Jo Walters. Walters called herself a Green Independent Democrat in a newspaper editorial, so she definitely was trying to position herself to the left of Lehman. It will be interesting to see where she was the strongest.

CT Gov-R by town:
()

Foley (winner) in blue.  McKinney in red.  Tie in grey.

CT Lt. Gov-R by town:

()

Bacchiochi in blue.  Somers (winner) in red.  Walker in yellow.  Ties in grey.

Note that this is from last night's AP data after all towns reported.  There may have been a subsequent update.

AK results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AK_Page_0819.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WY results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WY_Page_0819.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

That's a surprisingly lopsided map for only a 56-44 split. Did McKinney absolutely clean up in his home region, and/or was the rest of the state mostly (outside Greenwich, it seems) fairly close despite being near uniformly going for Foley?

Most of Foley's wins weren't fairly close.  They were at or above his statewide average - which was 11 points and isn't that really close in the grand scheme of things.  If I've done the spreadsheet math right, Connecticut has 169 towns.  Foley won 149.  McKinney won 19.  One was an exact tie.  Of Foley's 149 towns, he won 19 very slightly (50-55%), 56 at around his statewide average (55-60%), 48 in the low 60s (60-65%) and 26 with greater than 65% of the vote.  Almost half of McKinney's town wins were very slight (9), 5 were in the 55-60% range, 2 in the 60-65% range, and 3 were 65%+.

McKinney cleaned up in towns in and around his State Senate district, especially the town of Fairfield.  He actually won Fairfield County.  But he simply didn't do well in most of the rest of the state.

The percentage of the total GOP primary vote cast in each of the counties was as follows:

26.4% - Fairfield
23.8% - Hartford
18.0% - New Haven
8.8% - Litchfield
8.3% - New London
6.4% - Middlesex
5.2% - Tolland
3.1% - Windham

Though the towns east of the river comprise 40% of Connecticut's land area, only about 20% of Connecticut's Republicans live there. That helps to explain why Foley's victory appears more geographically sweeping than it does numerically.

WY SoS with 4% in:

Buchanan - 35%
Murray - 34%
Illoway - 21%
Stith - 10%

Gov:

Mead - 60%
Haynes - 29%
Hill - 12% (lol, pathetic)

Mead, as I expected will win handily.

34% in now and Mead is the projected winner, 57-29-14

SoS: 37-34 Murray-Buchanan

What time do the Alaska polls close?  Midnight EDT, 11 PM CDT?

Midnight - Eastern Time.

Most of the state closes at 12 AM EST, but the media generally considers it closed at 1 AM due to Aleutian Islands.

There is literally one precinct in the Aleutians that theoretically closes at 1AM Eastern.  Everything else closes at midnight Eastern.

It looks like its Sean Parnell vs. Bryon Mallett for Governor.
Dan Sullivan vs. French Hollis for Lt. Governor.

There's probably going to be two Dan Sullivans on the ballot in November assuming the other one wins. :P

AZ results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AZ_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

FL results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/FL_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

OK results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OK_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

VT results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/VT_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

My prediction for Republican AZ-Gov Primary:

35% Ducey
21% Smith
20% Jones
15% Bennett
9% Others

AZ-GOV Primary:
32% Ducey
31% Smith
15% Jones
13% Bennett
7% Thomas
2% Riggs

Lol Riggs.

But Ducey keeps it at Likely R, while Smith would move the race to Safe R, since he's far less controversial. Brewer actually seems to be positioning herself as Establishment GOP after originally rising from the Tea Party movement.

FL-GOV Primary:
74% Crist
26% Rich

Rich doesn't have a shot, but I think she can do a little better than expected due to lack of enthusiasm for Crist.

AZ:

Ducey- 33%
Smith- 26%
Jones- 20%
Bennett- 14%
Thomas- 5%
Riggs- 2%

While we're waiting on results, here's a quiz on which AZ Gov candidate most matches your views. (http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/2014/07/23/arizona-governor-candidate-quiz/13038875/?hootPostID=d5e73431da09766b055b85a3b7909268&sf30272888=1) I got DuVal (as expected).

Ew I got him too.

Even I got him! Look at my avatar! That really shouldn't happen :O

:( 77-23

She's over performing in Lake by eight percent :P

()

(Sorry in advance for spamming) Rich is doing much better in the northern portion of the state rather than the southern portion of the state. Grassroots campaign would've worked better in rural areas with no real media market. She leads in only one county, Putnam.

Mr. Alan Schlesinger, the man who got less than 10% in the Connecticut Senate race as a Republican, is only five points behind in the primary in the 18th District. It's an R+3 district, but if Schlesinger wins, Murphy is almost guaranteed re-election.

AP calls it for Scott and Crist, no surprise. Now we look at the AG race.  Hopefully Sheldon wins this.

Anything particularly bad about the other candidate?

And Sheldon has won.

Panhandle Dixiecrats aren't enthusiastic about Crist.

Why would they be?

Just a really poor candidate. Also wonderful that we have a candidate that's more electable, more liberal, and more experienced than the other one. This'll be a close race between Bondi and Sheldon.

Grassroots campaigning, IMO, would probably work better in the southern parts of the state. Rich had a very limited budget, and in terms of dollars per contact it's a hell of a lot easier to do GOTV and voter outreach when everyone's packed together and centralized like in Ft. Lauderdale compared to Palatka. I do wonder what happened in Putnam, though - Crist carried Volusia, Flagler, and Marion with over 70%, and didn't get pushed under 60% in any other county bordering Putnam.

Looks like Ducey is running away with this already.

LOTS of early vote in Arizona. 55% predicted turnout but only 1% of precincts reporting.

We had a very dedicated group of volunteers up there. About ten, made calls all day every day.

Ace of Spades calls AZ-Gov for Ducey:

For a bit of AZ trivia: (http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2014/08/arizona_republican_gubernatori.php)

DE results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/DE_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MA results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MA_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NH results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NH_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NY results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NY_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

RI results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/RI_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Teachout and Wu could both have surprisingly strong showings next Tuesday.

Cuomo's people are very nervous (especially about the Lieutenant Governor's race).

MA Gov. Dem Primary Prediction
46% Coakley
39% Grossman
15% Berwick

RI Gov. Dem Primary Prediction
36% Raimondo
35% Pell (Chaffee endorsement brings him down a point)
29% Traveras

RI Gov. Rep Primary Prediction
52% Block
48% Fung

I'm going out on a limb and saying that Pell will pull this out... Chaffee's endorsement probably didn't resonate yet.

Coakley wins by around 10.

Taveras wins in a narrow three-way race, with Raimondo second.

Block wins by about 8.

I'm going to say Raimondo wins by less than 5, upper 30's. And Coakley should win by double digits, lower 50's.

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First numbers in the Rhode Island Governor Race:

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STOP THE COUNT!

Coakley - 39%
Berwick - 31%
Grossman - 30%

Raimondo - 41%
Pell - 30%
Taveras - 27%

()

()

When will the NY results start coming in?

9

9:00 EST.

Worth noting - NH-Downballot race update. David Boutin is only leading Jane Cormier (the carpetbagger and Tea Party challenger to David Boutin) 54-46 with 57% of precincts reporting.

Everything else is fine. The rest of the incumbents look to be fine (or too early to call in for SD24).  Feltes (more progressive than Ardinger) wins SD-15, and crazy nutjob George Lambert leads establishment pick Robyn Dunphy 51-49 with one precinct left. Rest are too early to call.

Fung is leading Block 51 to 49.

Thanks! I am really interested in the NY primary as well as Rhode Island (which has already started to report).

New York is not very fast at counting votes.  It's not like Florida.  I wouldn't expect anything meaningful until after 10PM.

Coakley only up 41/37 with almost 20% in.

lol. Fingers crossed!

Lol, Go Coakley ;)

Do you prefer Grossman? I thought you were a True Leftist :p

Heh. Honestly, I don't know much about the other guy. I just think Coakley is a terrible candidate to run.

Hopefully Coakley crushes Grossman.

Wasn't Berwick at single digits in the polling? Looks like he's doing much better than expected.

First NY results:

Cuomo up 65/31, Hochul 57/43. Just a few upstate counties.

First results from New York, at 1%:

Cuomo: 57.7%
Teachout: 38.1%
Credico: 4.2%

.2 reporting in NY, Teachout dominating. 64-30

Tierney concedes in the 6th district of MA, pretty surprising.

Allen Fung is pulling away in the RI Governor primary. 54 - 46.

Was it decided that Block would be the better candidate against the Dem nominee?

26 NY precincts in from the AP

Teachout 65%
Cuomo 31%
Credico 5%

Wu 57%
Hocul 43%

Cuomo leads 60-37.

Not really.

Teachout's ahead in two upstate counties--Fulton and Schoharie, both west of Albany--at about half of said counties reporting.

100% of the vote in Schoharie and Teachout wins it 71-25!

Wonderful news! Moulton will give Tisei a good thrashing and Dems won't have to waste money/resources defending this seat.

Yes!

Hochul is actually doing better than Cuomo at the moment...

Wu won the same county 61-39!


All of the precincts (except for the Zephyr county) are in the Western part of the state and no NYC counties have reported.

Gina Raimondo wins Democratic primary for Governor in Rhode Island.

Teachout/Wu also leading in Albany, Cuomo leading in Western NY.

Teachout is winning St. Lawrence county 78-21. Is this area is more like Vermont?

Yeah, I think it is.

Allan Fung wins Republican nomination for Governor in Rhode Island!
Go Fung!

I'd think so. It seems to be an area against fracking.

Teachout is almost definitely going to take Cortland County.


Not exactly but, broad strokes, yes, the North Country is culturally and politically much as one might expect considering its proximity to Vermont and Canada.

Cuomo looks like he's going to win NYC :(

Every time Wu or Teachout wins a county, I take a shot.

:)

Cuomo: 59%

Teachout: 37%

(4% reporting)

Any chances that Teachout might still win?

Baker wins GOP nomination for Governor in Massachusetts

GO CHARLIE GO!

Unsurprisingly

I think we now know all the governor and senate candidates of this cycle. Assuming Cuomo and Kochul win.

Is that surprising? Other than perhaps Manhattan I'd expect him to do very well.

With 12% in Cuomo leads 54-42-3.

Seriously, STOP THE COUNT!

Teachout now leading in Erie County :P

Wow big dump for Teachout. She's doing much better than Wu.

Nah, it was a typo, Cuomo leading by 50~ points again in Erie.

Looks like Lincoln Chafee lost the RI Dem primary without even running :P

Hochul running ahead of Cuomo, but results so far are upstate-heavy.

Teachout leading in Dutchess and Ulster, like a lot of us were speculating.

Furthermore at this rate I don't think Cuomo's lead in Essex holds.

(Yes, I primarily know and care about the Hudson Valley and Adirondacks. Sue me.)

Cuomo at 61% at the moment. Is it too much to hope for that he gets held under 60?

Fulton all in, Teachout wins that county 54-39.

Teachout's cleaning up pretty much everywhere east of Utica and north of Westchester.

He was under 60% when returns first started coming in, FWIW.

Orleans first Cuomo county, he wins it 62-30.

Cuomo at 59.9%

Stop the count!

AP finally calls Dem. primary for Cuomo.

RIP Ziggy Shuttlesworth

Coakley wins Democrat nomination in Massachusetts.

AP calls it for Hochul too. :(

Maybe Teachout can run for state Senate. Same with Wu.

I think Howie Hawkins should concentrate his efforts on the counties that Teachout won.

:D

:(

Madison, Washington and Ontario are Teachout/Hochul counties. Essex is Cuomo/Wu.

I would be dumbfounded if Republicans didn't use this Teachout/Wu ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42XOo53ildI) against Hochul.

The thrashing that Teachout administered to Cuomo in Schoharie turns out to be harsher than the one in Tompkins after all.

Hochul isn't running separately in the general election.  New York votes for a combined Gov/Lt. Gov ticket.

Corrupt Cuomo + Flip Floppin Hochul. Quite a ticket.

Astorino doesn't have the money to run ads.  The RGA isn't helping him, either.  Without an upset by Teachout, Cuomo is definitely getting reelected.  Astorino will be lucky to receive as much of the vote as Teachout + Credico did so far.

Essex has finally flipped to Teachout.

Now if only Franklin can flip, it would make for a very visually appealing map.

"So it doesn't look like I'm going to be the next Governor of this state, but it's still a big moment and I want to celebrate it."

She reminds me of Rachel Maddow.

I'm confused as to why Franklin was ever in the Cuomo column to begin with, honestly.

I doubt Astorino would be as effective in keeping the Senate Republican as Cuomo.

Eagerly awaiting a NYC (well, mostly Manhattan) precinct map for the Wu-Hochul race.

could Teachout have won the white vote?

I don't have the local knowledge you and Averroes do, but I'd speculate that in a low-turnout primary like this one, the correctional unions play a major role in supporting the establishment. Franklin is a big prison county, with multiple correctional facilities in Malone.

I'd entirely forgotten about the prisons. Thanks for reminding me.

Franklin County has unofficial precinct-level results on their county website.  What's out is largely in Harrietstown and Tupper Lake in the Adirondacks.  It could tighten up there.

RIP anyone who was taking a shot for each county Teachout won. She's won almost 30.

RIP in peace Panda Express.

May be, he is Russian :) We will know, if we hear from him again :)

She's won half the counties, 31.

And it's been called for Avella.

It's been a good run, Democrats. I'll talk more about it but if a party doesn't even have the balls to primary people who'll directly betray their party then I don't think I belong there anymore.

NHLiberal, I'm sure you can pick up where I've left off.

Wouldn't this be counterproductive, since you'd no longer be able to vote in Democratic primaries? Or are they open in NH?

NH primaries are open.

NY DEM GOV:

()

So Scott Brown only managed 50% against a bunch of joke candidates? Interesting.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198471.0

;)

34% ?

Not all too bad for her really.

Was Teachout's performance better in NY's fracking counties or not ?

Coakley only won by 6 points, after polls showed her far ahead ?

:P

And LOL @ Brown as well in NH.

Probably the taking a shot after she won every county was a bad thing.

Anyway, what an underwhelming result. Tim Wu did run ahead of Teachout though.

To be fair, I'm not sure Rubens is a joke. Everyone else, including Former Senator Bob Smith, is though.

The colors are reversed in the topic you linked to, in case you don't know.

Former NYC Councilman Leroy Comrie defeated corrupt Queens State Sen. Malcolm Smith. It shows that corrupt politicians have to go.

http://www.timesledger.com/stories/2014/37/smith_web_2014_09_09_q.html

Like John Sampson?

And Andrew Cuomo?

Rubens wasn't a joke candidate.

Does anyone know when the Mass Governor debates start?