Talk Elections

Discuss the ongoing ebola outbreak here.

Summary:Previous ebola outbreaks were confined to central Africa, to isolated villages where each case could be traced back to a single source. The villages could then be easily quarantined until the virus was contained.

Here we have it suddenly appear in west Africa, and it has already touched three metropolitan areas - Conakry, Freetown, and Monrovia. "The situation is serious, you can't say it is under control as cases are continuing and it is spreading geographically," Dr Pierre Formenty, a WHO expert who recently returned from Guinea, told a news briefing in Geneva on Wednesday.

Sierra Leone suspended cross-border trade fairs (http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0EO0HD20140613) with Guinea and Liberia on Wednesday and closed schools, cinemas and nightclubs in a frontier region in a bid to halt the spread of the Ebola virus.

June 20, 2014: Doctors without Border: Outbreak Out of Control (http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/medical/article/Ebola-out-of-control-Doctors-Without-Borders-5566964.php)

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf: National Emergency (http://allafrica.com/stories/201406200126.html)

July 22, 2014: Number of cases top 1,000 (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_07_19_ebola/en/)

July 30, 2014: Public Health England (PHE) issued an alert to GPs, A&E departments, Critical Care Units as well as all NHS trusts across the UK, warning doctors and medical staff to be vigilant to the disease. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2709330/NHS-chiefs-issue-Ebola-alert-GPs-A-amp-E-departments-expert-warns-hospitals-ill-equipped-cope-sudden-outbreak-deadly-disease.html#ixzz390WMU4kT)

August 7, 2014: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control declares a Level 1 Public Health Emergency, previously applicable only to the Swine Flu Outbreak (H1N1) and Hurricane Katrina.

August 9, 2014: Number of fatalities tops 1,000.

September 30, 2014: First case identified outside of West Africa, in Dallas, Texas.

October 6, 2014: First confirmed case of transmission outside of West Africa, in Spain.

October 8, 2014: First Ebola death outside of West Africa from a case identified outside of West Africa (Thomas Duncan).

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On July 27 2014 there were 1323 cases, which was more than double the 599 cases of June 24.  That in turn was about double the cases of 309 on May 27. Thus the virus at that point had been doubling in reported cases each month since at least late May.

The official number is almost certainly a significant under-count as many cases are not being reported due to massive resistance to health workers. At the current rate (doubling every 24 27 days increasing in a linear fashion at about 150/day), here are the projections of the number of infected from Sep 23.

Sept. 23 2014 : 6,600
Oct. 19 2014 : 9,936
Nov. 1 2014: 11,736
Dec. 1 2014: 16k
Jan. 1 2015: 21k
Feb. 1 2015: 25.5k
Mar. 1 2015: 30k
Apr. 1 2015: 34.5k
Jun. 1 2015: 39k
Jul. 1 2015: 43.5k
Aug. 1 2015: 48.2k
Sep. 1 2015: 52.8k
Oct. 1 2015: 57.3k
Nov. 1 2015: 62k

As a result of the degradation of the exponential model, the Zero Hour projection no longer makes sense.

Oh dear. This is exactly the sort of place it would spread.

You think I am joking, but we should ship over lots and lots of hand sanitizer.

Now officially the deadliest outbreak, ever. And hand sanitizer doesn't do anything to viruses.

There aren't too many instances where something actually lives up to the traditional media scare tactics, but the Ebola virus is definitely one. This is the Ebola Zaire strain, which has an average mortality rate of 79%.

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Indeed. I'm surprised at how little coverage this is getting, especially compared to developments in the Middle East. What's the worst that can happen there? ISIS takes over? Who cares? They can always be bombed into oblivion just like the Taliban were.

On the other hand, if ebola goes unchecked in west Africa, who says it can't reach the West? And how, exactly, is it going to be stopped now? We can't rely on overworked, underfunded Medicines Sans Frontieres volunteers to fix this for the world. I'm convinced slow mobilization of Western resources now to fight ebola could be seen as a historic mistake by future generations. I urge everyone to spread awareness of this issue as far and wide as possible, and in the meantime, make a donation to Medicines Sans Frontiers (https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/onetime.cfm) in lieu of a political campaign contribution.

So far what has stopped Ebola from spreading and turning into a major epidemic is (paradoxically) the sheer fact that it is so virulent. The infected simply dies before they can spread the disease to that many people. So you need a slightly less virulent version with the infected living longer for this to be a major epidemic.

Is the current outbreak of a less virulent version? (it doesn't seem so, from what I read)

Basically even if it does get to the West, it likely wont be a major problem. Off course it will be terrible for those affected and their families, but the consequences will be smaller than an ISIS victory in Iraq.

Well, it get's little coverage because it affects poor, black people in African countries that nobody cares about.

If there were an Ebola outbreak in the White House, it would certainly get more media coverage.

^^^^^

Daily Kos gets with the program:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/06/25/1309531/-Ebola-out-of-control-we-have-reached-the-limits-of-what-we-can-do-says-Doctors-Without-Borders

But they live in the same world we do. Viruses don't know whether somebody is white or black or yellow or brown or red, or how much money is in your bank account. Viruses don't know borders either, those man-made invisible lines. Viruses have only dynamics, and the current trajectory of human response is not sufficient. This is one area where for the developed world to look beyond our own myopia would be an act of supreme self interest.

Also,


http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/06/27/326159053/for-a-9-year-old-with-ebola-a-sliver-of-hope-isnt-enough

Think of this story the next time you are feeling sorry for yourself.

I am somewhat reminded of the Babylon 5 episode "Confessions and Lamentations" (http://www.midwinter.com/lurk/guide/040.html).

Lancet warns many cases of ebola may be going undetected, particularly in Sierra Leone:


Link (http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-experts-highlight-problems-sierra-leone-164421522.html)

So what do you think the end game is here Beet, should us non-poors in non-tropical places be worried?

No one knows what the end game is but the top experts in the field have says that it spreading outside of Africa is a very real possibility. With a symptom free incubation period of 21 days and thousands of people crossing borders every day I don't see what there is to stop it.

The EU has provisioned 500,000 euros and this alone will allow Medicines Sans Frontiers, the Red Cross and the Red Crescent a significant expansion of resources. 500,000 euros! Obama has asked for 500 million for Syria alone, and 3.7 billion for some kids on the border. This is a rounding error we're talking about. Yet it will make a huge difference at this point in time to stop this outbreak. Have you seen pictures of JFK hospital in Liberia? The largest hospital in the country... Google it. This is what we are dealing with here. Last Thursday a pregnant woman died if ebola there and now all the staff are running around like headless chickens, and without protective gear, according to one reporter. $1 million is going to make a huge difference. Six months from now, $1 billion might not be enough. Yet it's like spitting in the wind here...

Part of the problem is the incentives are all Fuked up. 80-90 percent of people die, so people see the sick going into these treatment centers relatively healthy and not come out. So if you're sick, there's no incentive for you to go to these treatment centers. But for the rest of us, we need then to go there to be isolated. That's why if there are experimental treatments they should start trying them now. The downside is pretty low. But these big pharmaceutical companies won't give it a high priority because there's no money in it. Some if the main research on ebola right now is being funded by the Canadian government and the DoD. Because the government knows that this is a national security issue.

WHO can't fully deal with Ebola outbreak, WHO warns (http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-who-ebola-20140718-story.html)

Everything is going to be okay, dude. This isn't going to be like Contagion.

Well not the people who get it.

Beet might be overheating. You should try rebooting him.

Ha ha guys, keep laughing.

Meanwhile, last week a guy was left outside Liberia's largest hospital puking blood for half an hour while a crowd of onlookers gathered in because health workers were too panicked to figure out what do with him.


http://allafrica.com/stories/201407170961.html

The kicker is the guy took the taxi to the hospital, potentially leaving his bodily fluids all over it and infecting however is the next person to take that taxi. There was no mention in the article that the taxi was tracked down and de-fumigated. One can easily imagine a person taking a taxi to the airport and getting infected.

The introduction of chikungunya (non-fatal, dengue fever like disease) into the western hemisphere is a bigger immediate concern.

While the symptoms of chikungunya may be similar to ebola for 1 or 2 weeks, ultimately it is not a fatal disease.

~

"The articles I read in the English-language press decry the absence of functioning healthcare infrastructures in the African nations hit by the Ebola virus. But I am not convinced that the United States would do much better. There are a great many things that western medical institutions and personnel do extraordinarily well. We have sophisticated surgical technology and an advanced pharmacopeia of medicines to treat hundreds of diseases. But the bulk of our medical resources go towards curing rather than prevention. What we do dedicate to prevention tends to be limited to proximate factors such as germs and personal behaviors such as smoking that make individuals sick. We also divert resources into campaigns for procedures such as mammograms which detect but do not prevent disease. We pay less attention to poverty, inequality, environmental degradation and, yes, globalization, as root causes of sickness.

...

We need to learn about public health emergencies around the world not only because they might become our emergencies, but also because those emergencies could be better contained and managed if we were to invest our expertise, our attention and our resources into community, national and international health preservation. For a fraction of the money that Western countries have poured into military campaigns in Africa, it would have been possible to support local governments in building functioning public health infrastructures. "

America’s shameful ebola ignorance: The troubling truth about our attitude toward the virus (http://www.salon.com/2014/07/20/americas_shameful_ebola_ignorance_the_troubling_truth_about_our_attitude_toward_the_virus/)

Ebola reported in the Democratic Rep. of the Congo (http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/657793-uganda-alert-after-ebola-reports-in-drc.html)

Four Nurses have contracted ebola at hospital in north-central Liberia (http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/657836-liberian-nurses-contract-ebola-after-death-of-ugandan-doctor.html); the hospital had received a donation from Gus and Hope, a US-based Lutheran Church, as recently as March. In February, patients and nurses had abandoned the hospital due to ebola fears.

Precautions professionals take around ebola (http://www.npr.org/2014/07/20/333173747/facility-sets-up-extreme-precautions-to-treat-ebola-patients); which include full body suits that are burned afterwards (cost of $80 each), two fences six feet apart; a decontamination chamber from which nothing ever comes out except people.

Ebola is rated at a higher biohazard level than anthrax, HIV, SARS and tuberculosis. There are only a few labs around the world rated high enough biohazard level to deal with ebola.

According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC):

"In addition to BSL-3 considerations, BSL-4 laboratories have the following containment requirements:

Laboratory practices

Change clothing before entering.
Shower upon exiting.
Decontaminate all materials before exiting.
Safety equipment

All work with the microbe must be performed within an appropriate Class III BSC , or by wearing a full body, air-supplied, positive pressure A suit.
Facility construction

The laboratory is in a separate building or in an isolated and restricted zone of the building.
The laboratory has dedicated supply and exhaust air, as well as vacuum lines and decontamination systems."

http://www.cdc.gov/training/quicklearns/biosafety/

The author of this does not see that organized healthcare is a big business that makes money off the treatment of diseases not their prevention. This is why the war on cancer is such a hoax: you have the cancer industry and their pawns, the cancer charities, keep blaming the individual for the disease yet they ignore and hide the real causes of the disease, and use known deceptive cancer statistics to fool the public about their alleged beneficial interventions such as mammography, and allocate almost all the research money into more orthodox treatments (read the epilogue of this article: google/bing "A Mammogram Letter The British Medical Journal Censored"). The same way are economic-sociological factors, such as poverty, income inequality, dismissed and disregarded... to hide the real truth from the public, which is that the biggest profiteers (the power elite) bear the vast majority of the blame for most of these diseases.

Wow. This is troubling. Thank you for bravely telling the truth. You mention the real causes of cancer are hidden and ignored. What are these real causes?

A reminder of why ebola is treated as a biohazard level 4:

The head doctor fighting an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus in Sierra Leone has himself caught the disease (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/23/doctor-contracts-ebola-sheik-umar-khan_n_5614228.html)

"It was not immediately clear how Khan had caught the virus. His colleagues told Reuters that he was always meticulous with protection, wearing overalls, mask, gloves and special footwear. Three days ago, three nurses working in the same Ebola treatment center alongside Khan died from the disease."

The high risk to health workers is one of the most insidious aspects of this disease.

Also...

"In a sign of the growing frustrations with the failure of region's governments to tackle the outbreak, a Liberian whose brother died from the disease set fire to the Health Ministry in protest on Wednesday."

Also...

* Dozens of nurses at a government hospital in eastern Sierra Leone town of Kenema went on an indefinite strike on Monday following the death of three of their colleagues on Sunday. They demand " "immediate relocation to an isolated area of the Ebola ward and its takeover by the French medical agency, MSF".

As we know, MSF is already stretched beyond its limits. This is the only hospital in the country with an ebola testing center.

* Dozens of laboratory technicians at Sierra Leone's only Ebola-testing facility went on strike last week over a $20 monthly risk premium which they were promised but never paid.

Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/21/us-health-ebola-africa-idUSKBN0FQ0XO20140721

The problem is, you have to pay these health workers huge premiums to work under these conditions. And then the worse the outbreak gets, the more tourism and investment falls, the less able the society is to deal with the disease. So it's a vicious cycle of economic collapse, which makes dealing with the outbreak harder, which leads to further economic collapse.

* According to reports in local media, the doctor mentioned mentioned above, Dr. Khan, is one of two "prominent" doctors showing ebola-like symptoms.

* "a national broadcaster last evening reported that following the deaths of eight ( 8 ) nurses within one month, ostensibly from Ebola infection, the Kenema city Ebola Unit is now abandoned by nurses who accuse the Health Ministry of being “incapable” of protecting health workers."

http://news.sl/drwebsite/publish/article_200525829.shtml

A doctor at the Phebe Hospital in Bong County has been tested positive of the deadly Ebola Virus Disease, barely a month after a head doctor at the Redemption Hospital in the Borough of New Kru Town died of the disease at the John F. Kennedy Memorial Hospital in Monrovia.

In Monrovia, several hospitals have shut their doors to the public, including Redemption Hospital and the James Davies Memorial Hospital in Nee-Zoe community, Paynesville after nurses and doctors refused to report for work.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201407241076.html

It's now spread to Nigeria (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/25/us-heath-ebola-nigeria-idUSKBN0FU1LE20140725). :(

Authorities are now considering shutting down the John F. Kennedy Memorial Hospital in Monrovia (http://allafrica.com/stories/201407251064.html?aa_source=slideout) for 21 days, after senior medical practitioner, Dr, Samuel Brisbane died of ebola yesterday. JFK is one of the biggest state run referral hospitals (referenced in my posts above). Nurses are not working or getting paid anymore and could be seen standing around the hallways in fear. The OPD Wall, the Operation Room, the pharmacy and other important segments of the hospital were all closed to the public.

The meagre health system in Liberia is being absolutely eviscerated. Pretty soon it will completely cease to function.

Jeez.


http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/07/sierra-leone-police-use-tear-gas-to-curb-ebola-related-riot.html

I think one thing we've learned from the West Africa situation is that, when there's an ebola outbreak, sending people to the hospital is not the best place to go. Hospitals are needed for normal patients of normal ailments; a critical mass of ebola patients at a hospital, and pretty soon other patients will not be willing to go anymore. Ebola isolation units are special facilities that ideally should be set up away from population centers, and well defended.

Holy sh*t, a woman in Charlotte, NC  (http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2014/07/ebola_virus_infects_nc_woman_w.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) has contracted it. 'Hoping she ends up ok.

She is from Charlottle, not in Charlotte.  She is in Liberia where she has been helping out with a medical aid mission.  By all appearances, she is a woman who should end up at the right hand of Christ (https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+25:31-46), though hopefully not soon.

My heart skipped a beat. But yeah, Charlotte is the headquarters of Samaritan's Purse (http://www.samaritanspurse.org/), the organization the Ft. Worth doctor who contracted it is from. Dr. Kent Brantly is only 33 years old; with a wife and kids in Texas. Last I checked his blogspots from 2009 were still up. God bless him. You can donate directly to the organization's West African ebola response here (http://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/donate-online/). I donated $50.

Nancy Writebol worked in the decontamination unit, basically she was one of those who you see helping the doctors suit up and take off their suits afterwards. The fact that she was infected, and doctors are infected, shows that there are multiple failures in the current operational procedures which must be corrected. For a supposedly "hard to catch" disease it certainly is hard to defend against. Which is going to be an issue going forward because, BSL-4 is not replicable on the ground.

Fascinating comment on reddit from someone who works on micro-finance:

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It is said that an element as simple as Clorox bleach can kill ebola, so maybe I was wrong to disagree with Simfan early in this thread. The problem is it must be applied consistently. I wonder if it could help health workers to have their suits completely soaked in bleach?

Also, again what we have learned here is that ebola isolation cannot be confused with "normal" medical institutions; if at all possible these isolation centers should be built from scratch and it should not be assumed that a normal hospital is equipped to deal with it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

Cleaning with bleach can't hurt, but it won't solve the crisis. It won't protect you while you're wearing them, it will only clean already infected clothes. Bleach is obviously removed beofre them wearing them (if not, they'll get terrible chemical burns and long-term respiratory issues, perhps even chemical poisoning).

Sorry if this seems like a lot of posts, but a major speech today by Liberian president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is pertinent

http://allafrica.com/stories/201407270112.html?aa_source=acrdn-f0

It looks like full mobilization of gov't resources, including the armed forces to enforce local quarantines. should have been done a month ago

So apparently the guy's family only traveled back to the U.S. a few days ago (http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/07/27/5999059/fort-worth-doctor-with-ebola-reportedly.html). And now it's already reported he's under quarantine? I hope the guy's family is being tested/monitored, if not under quarantine for the requisite 21 day period.

Headquarters are actually in Boone. (pedant)

Well, according to Samaritan's Purse, Nancy Writebol had never even had contact with patients, and they are "investigating how [infection] might have occurred." That puts a damper on all the pollyanas saying "oh don't worry, it only transmits through blood or feces, durrr hurr hurr" I'm pretty sure this woman would have known if she had touched the blood or feces of a patient.

Meanwhile, Patrick Sawyer, the Liberian Finance Ministry consultant who died in Nigeria, had been on three flights... one to Togo, one to Ghana, and one to Lagos. And apparently they don't have all the flight lists yet still.

http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/t0728-ebola.html

CDC on risk to U.S. population:

'I want to underscore that Ebola poses little risk to the U.S. general population.  Transmission is through direct contact of bodily fluids of an infected person or exposure objects like needles that have been contaminated with infected secretions.  Individuals who are not symptomatic are not contagious. The mortality rate in some outbreaks can be as high as 90 percent, but in this outbreak, it is currently around 60 percent, indicating that some of our early treatment efforts may be having an impact.'

The 60 percent figure being thrown around seems too low. In Guinea, the disease has a fatality rate of about 75 percent. In Sierra Leone and Liberia it is much lower, but that is because new suspected cases are piling up very fast in those countries. Many of those cases will die.

CDC on response strategy:

'Fundamentally we need to work together to do three things.  These things are 100 percent in line with the global health security agenda.  First we need to build systems to find cases quickly.  And when health care can make a difference between life and death.  This means traditional healers, supporting primary care and accurate laboratory testing.  Secondly we need to respond by isolating cases, and managing the response through emergency operation centers which every country should have.  Third, we need to prevent future cases through infection control, safe burial practices, prompt diagnosis and isolation of new cases.'

'I think what I can say is that what we're trying to do is to approach this as a two-faze response here.  Perhaps three because we already had phase one.  In this phase, we want to, as quickly as possible, surge as many resources as we can into the area to try to get things going in all of these different areas where there is ongoing transmission.  There is five or six districts that have cases.  Once we do that surge, we have to maintain the effort.  So we're developing rosters of people with appropriate skilling, a new class of epidemic emergency service offices and we're looking to engage them in the outbreak response as well.'

They are still going for the isolate and contain route. Getting cooperation from the local population is going to be the number one issue.

So apparently this guy was a U.S. citizen. He lived in Minnesota for a decade and his wife and kids are still there. (A little awkward that his Americanness was erased, when the two Samaritan's purse workers were reported as the 1st and 2nd cases). Apparently he was also some big shot with the Liberian government, who had spoken for the Finance Minister before, and the Nigerians were under a lot of pressure to release him. Even now the Liberians are supposedly displeased with his treatment, although the Nigerians certainly made the right choice.

Sheik Umar Khan, the top Sierra Leone doctor, has died in Kailahun. Yesterday it was reported that the president of Sierra Leone, Ernest Bai Koroma, flew up to Kenema, a large market town near Kailahun, to visit the epicenter of the outbreak in that country and an ebola treatment center for the first time. He was tipped to visit Dr. Khan in Kailahun, but his helicopter was reported to not be able to make up due to lack of fuel, and he was to return the following day. I wonder now if they said "Don't bother coming, he's about to die." Or "He's already dead, but we're not ready to announce it."

Guinea has had the most resistance from the local population to measures intended to control the spread of Ebola, which likely has contributed to the higher mortality rate there as well.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/no-market-scientists-struggle-make-ebola-vaccines-treatments-n167871

With a disease like ebola I don't think it's unethical to give people the opportunity, with informed consent, to take medications that have not yet passed all the regulatory hurdles. If it was you, wouldn't you want the chance? In March 2009, when a researcher in Germany pricked herself accidentally with a needle that contained ebola, the top experts in the field were consulted within a day and she was given an experimental treatment. Although it was never confirmed that she did indeed contract ebola, she survived fine. The chance of someone dying from the vaccine is very small compared to dying from ebola.

Samaritan's Purse and Serving In Mission are evacuating non-essential employees.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/azaria-marthyman-ebola-doctor-returns-home-to-victoria-1.2721631

This guy, Dr. Azaria Marthyman, returned from Liberia to Canada after treating ebola patients in the last 5 days. From all indications in the above article, he has not been tested, is not under quarantine, and is "taking time off with his family." Ugh.

A classic sign of infection by Ebola … is a certain expression that invariably creeps over the patient’s face as the infection progresses. The face becomes fixed and “expressionless,” “masklike,” “ghostlike” (in the words of doctors who have seen it), with wide, deadened, “sunken” eyes. The patient looks and sometimes behaves like a zombie. This happens because Ebola damages the brain in some way that isn’t known. The classic masklike facial expression appears in all primates infected with Ebola, both monkeys and human beings. They act as if they were already embalmed, even though they are not yet dead. The personality may change: the human patient becomes sullen, hostile, agitated, or develops acute psychosis. Some have been known to escape from the hospital.

Disseminating clotting cuts off the blood supply in tissues, causing focal necrosis—dead spots in the liver, spleen, brain, kidneys, and lungs. In severe cases, Ebola kills so much tissue that after death the cadaver rapidly deteriorates. In monkeys, and perhaps in people, a sort of melting occurs, and the corpse’s connective tissue, skin, and organs, already peppered with dead areas and heated with fever, begin to liquefy, and the slimes and uncoagulated blood that run from the cadaver are saturated with Ebola-virus particles. That may be one of Ebola’s strategies for success.

- Crisis in the Hot Zone, by Richard Preston

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/takes-richard-preston-ebola

Death and Denial in the Hot Zone (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/28/death_and_denial_in_the_hot_zone_west_africa_ebola_hoax)

[Henry Jallah, a 23-year-old farmer] says he has accepted the advice of Liberia's Health Ministry to stay away from dead and sick people in the town, yet he is hesitant to believe it is really Ebola that claimed his family. He offers other explanations: poisoned drinking water as vengeance for a conflict over land, or some kind of curse. His family never took his aunt to a case management center, he says, because "some people say when you go over there, they can inject you -- when you having the sickness, they inject you and kill you."
...
In bustling Duala Market [in Monrovia, the capital], 92 percent of people said they did not believe Ebola existed, according to a recent survey of 1,000 people conducted by Samaritan's Purse. In fact, many in the capital initially viewed the virus as a hoax created by the government to generate and "eat money" from aid donors.
...
Compounding these problems, even when people believe Ebola exists, many are wary of hospitals because they believe the institutions provide poor care -- a concern that existed well before the current crisis. To be sure, Liberia's health-care system has improved since civil war ripped the nation apart; there has been a reduction, for example, in the under-5 child mortality rate. Yet Monrovia's largest hospital, John Fitzgerald Kennedy Memorial Medical Center, or JFK, is nicknamed "Just For Killing" among locals because people go there with treatable diseases such as malaria and still die.

More details still emerging about Patrick Sawyer... (http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/07/ebola-in-nigeriapatrick-sawyers-final-hours-in-lagos.html)

FrontPageAfrica has now learned that upon being told he had Ebola, Mr. Sawyer went into a rage, denying and objecting to the opinion of the medical experts. “He was so adamant and difficult that he took the tubes from his body and took off his pants and urinated on the health workers, forcing them to flee."

Umm... so two health workers in Nigeria were urinated on by a patient showing advanced symptoms? Have they been tested?

This from a Nigerian pastor:

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The part below the black line (original post here https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10154412557025106&id=373216405105) I cut off just to show how many people are buying into this sh**t, presumably upper class, educated Nigerians with access to Facebook.

We all knew the Sierra Leonians and Liberians were nuts on ebola, here's evidence Nigeria, a far larger country, is filled with fools as well.

And I kid you not, I didn't want to mention this before, but back in April when this thing had its first wave of news coverage, I was sitting in this Panera Bread in Arlington where a lot of news companies are located. This place is right outside of the Politico headquarters. It's not a place you would associate with conservative Christianity, let alone superstition. Well, these two black women were sitting at a table next to me talking in serious tones about beet juice. "Why beet juice?" I remember one of the asking in earnest tones. Then I realized they were talking about ebola. One of them was telling the other that beet juice cures ebola, which was a rumor going on at the time. They were very serious. This attitude exists in the United States, as well.

Ok, going to post my individual policy recommendations here. Governments are always one step behind events and being reactive. We see this again and again. But here we have to get in front of this to contain it, and that means doing done things that may seem to make little sense.

First of all, all regular international flights out of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia need to be suspended immediately. The proper controls are not in place. Only specially designated flights for foreign nationals and those coming in to assist the ebola response can be allowed. These specially designated outgoing flights cannot be normally fitted commercial jets. They must be aircraft specially fitted to allow individual isolation if every passenger, so if one develops symptoms mid flights that person does not infect others. On offloading each passenger must go to a designated compound that is also fitted to allow indivual isolation, and stay there for 25 days. After which if they show no symptoms they are free to go. For example, one if those large Amazon.com warehouses with tents set up inside would be the type of building that might be suitable.

Second of all, massive response is needed in West Africa to bring the situation under control. Certain areas (those being most amenable to quarantine) must be closed off and abandoned for the time being, while contact tracing occurs strategically, prioritizing those more at risk of traveling. The armed forces of West African states, particularly Ivory Coast, Mali, and Senegal must be mobilized to completely shut the border ( Conakry may be saved if eastern Guinea can be cut off ). Additionally, NATO forces should be deployed to the area to assist with surveillance.

Finally, large amounts of people and supplies are going to have to go in, to train contact tracers, nurses, burial workers, and construction if new, well defended treatment centers away from population areas. Spend $1 billion. Register every citizen and address, go door to door to every single household and examine the situation, and educate them about the facts of ebola, and provide chlorine solution for sanitary purposes. Health workers are to be protected by armed escort whenever possible. Focus on urban areas first. Go neighborhood by neighborhood with response teams divided by geographical area, identifying everyone who needs to be traced. House by house, block by block, town by town, until quarantine is reestablished. This should be an international effort. It would be nice if the Russians and the Chinese could also contribute.

This is what needs to happen ASAP and if I can I will call my congress critter about it tomorrow.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/07/31/atlanta-hospital-to-receive-ebola-patient/13434883/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/07/31/atlanta-hospital-to-receive-ebola-patient/13434883/)

Looks like they're bringing an ebola patient to Atlanta.

2012 Canadian study that infected macaques with ebola even with no direct contact (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423)

This makes me want to watch this 1995 movie again (which I have not seen for quite a few years now):

Outbreak (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outbreak_%28film%29)

Trailer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgZ5goJibn0

I've created a Google spreadsheet that charts the number of cases per day, based on the Wiki entry, below:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k_LJLH_mSqZ_LDnDJRKZjkcwoRz_ofJ8F5DWkeISAIs/edit#gid=0

As you can see, the number of cases per day has been steadily increasing since early June through July 30.

Ebola seems to be a large part of why the western gorilla is listed as critically endangered. There are 95,000 western gorillas. There are only around 6000 eastern gorillas, but they are listed as endangered, one tier better.

Indeed, evidence suggests the virus devastates primate populations
http://www.4apes.com/news/general/item/602-What-Ebola-virus-means-for-primate-popul-20121207/602-What-Ebola-virus-means-for-primate-popul-20121207

Edit:

And speaking of monkeys, a November 2012 Nature article (http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/full/srep00811.html) provided evidence of airborne transmission of ebola. Canadian researchers put ebola-infested hogs (in hogs, ebola only affects the respiratory system) in a room with four macaques, separated by wire fences 20 cm apart. In a supplementary PDF file, they provide a photograph of the setup (http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/extref/srep00811-s1.pdf). Two of the macaques were on the ground level with the hogs, and two of them were one level up. All four macaques came down with ebola, although they never had direct contact with the hogs.

Meanwhile, a U.S. doctor from Morristown, Tennessee has placed himself under voluntary quarantine (http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/02/health/ebola-doctor-quarantine/) after returning from treating ebola patients in Liberia. In the opinion of this medical professional and hero, the risks to him warrant such a quarantine. But he had to contact the C.D.C. of his own accord. Why are we rely on such voluntary effort - what about the plane load of people he flew in with? And what if he had developed symptoms mid flight?

Honestly I think the best thing the average person can do is to call those airlines still flying out of Lungi International Airport (Sierra Leone) and Roberts International Airport (Liberia) and get them to pull flights. Mention that Emirates Air, Gambia Bird and Arik Air have already pulled out.

British Airways Customer Service 1 (800) 247-9297
Air France Customer Service 1 (800) 992-3932 (Lungi only)
Delta Customer Service 1 (800) 455-2720 (they terminate flights Aug. 31, but should sooner)
Brussels Airlines Customer Service 1 (866) 308-2230
Air Côte d'Ivoire Customer Service 011 (<-- if in the U.S.) +225 20 25 10 30

Once some major airlines start pulling out the remaining ones will come under increasing pressure to do so, like a sack of dominoes.

Ebola patients break out of ward, hospital & city thrown into panic (http://allafrica.com/stories/201408010923.html?aa_source=acrdn-f0)

Tokpa Tarnue, a local journalist on the scene told FrontPageAfrica Wednesday that the majority of the suspected patients were in a holding room at the Tellewoyan Memorial Hospital while awaiting their departure for a treatment and isolation center in Foya when they abruptly left their room and moved into other wards that later resulted to all health workers escaping the hospital compound in deep fear.

According to the journalist, the suspected patients managed to leave the hospital premises and ran into various homes and streets, a situation that caused severe panic among citizens and residents of Voinjama who were likewise escaping from the patients fearing not to contract the deadly Ebola virus. He told FrontPageAfrica that for several hours Voinjama was like a ghost town as many residents escaped the city while others locked themselves in their homes.

Said the local journalist: "Everybody left. They had suspected Ebola patients in a holding room that is not well equipped. They are normally kept there before they are taken to Foya. In the process of doing that, those suspected patients left their wards and stating entering the children's ward and other places while they were vomiting and releasing feces at the same time. Based on that the entire hospital staff all left including the doctors and nurses. Up to now they have not gone back to work."

http://allafrica.com/stories/201408010923.html?aa_source=acrdn-f0

The Nature paper is interesting, but as the paper points out, pigs respond differently to Ebola than primates do making airborne spread of the virus from them far far more likely than with primates.

Amazing first-hand blog post (http://freetownfashpack.com/not-fashionable/ebola-has-moved-in/) of the situation in Kenema. Some of the other photos on the site aren't too shabby either, really helps humanize the people of Sierra Leone.

Poor Sierra Leone already had the shortest life expectancy in the world at 47.5 years.

Good lord. The number of cases / day has jumped from 39 to 81 in just the past two days!

Oh great, now it's right across the park. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-28651213) Are they telling me that I may have passed a man with Ebola on the bus?

I would wait to see if it's a confirmed case.

Recently, we have had three more suspected cases in Nigeria (including a doctor who treated Patrick Sawyer) and a confirmed case in Morocco. Morocco is a regional air hub for West African flights. That would make it the sixth country with a confirmed case in this outbreak (the United States being fifth).

Incidentally, a gargantuan conference of around 50 African heads of state is taking place in D.C. with president Obama ATM. The United States is playing catch up after years in which China has been providing infrastructure loans, and building mines and factories in Africa, which has helped the continent's economic growth to the fastest since the 1970s. What better way for the U.S. to show value in Africa than an effective response to the ebola epidemic?

There are a number of updates now coming in from all over the world - one thing I am glad to say is that I called British Airways on Saturday, the person on the line was helpful and promised to pass my message onto his manager, and this week they have announced they are suspending flights through the end of the month.

For now I just wanted to comment on a photo from the New York Times:

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Here's how the green bucket works:
(1) A person infected with virus on his hands goes to the bucket and turns that yellow tap to open the disinfectant, thus infecting the tap with the virus.
(2) The person washes the virus off their hands.
(3) The person turns the yellow tap to stop the flow of the disinfectant, in the process re-infecting his hand with the virus due to the fact that he had earlier infected the tap.
(4) The next person goes to the bucket, turns the yellow tap, and infects themselves.
(5) Rinse and repeat steps 2-3.
(6) Rinse and repeat with the next 100 people.

Some of these measures just don't make sense.

Liberian soldiers have set up a blockade stopping people from western regions affected by the Ebola outbreak from entering the capital, Monrovia.

...

In neighbouring Sierra Leone, the head of the police in the east of the country said police and soldiers had imposed a "complete blockade" of the Kenema and Kailahun districts.

"No vehicles or persons will be allowed in or out of the districts" except those with essential food and medicines, he said.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28690799

New cases temporal regression trends in Sierra Leone:

http://i.imgur.com/e2m3sml.png

http://imgur.com/eGxXMPG

A Google Maps (https://www.google.co.uk/maps/ms?msid=211519911928507564534.0005000a490bf56bf1434&msa=0&ll=30.751278,-2.460937&spn=112.538834,270.527344&dg=feature) of affected countries.

Strangely enough, I don't see Morocco on there, even though they confirmed one person died of ebola there.

Meanwhile, as coverage has slowed, the rate of new infections continues to accelerate in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The current rate of infection by country,
1. Liberia
2. Sierra Leone
...
3. Guinea
4. Nigeria (all due to Patrick Sawyer)

An educational tune (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_WOR22-SnY)

The World Health Organization has said that "Staff at the outbreak sites see evidence that the numbers of reported cases [1,975] and deaths [1,069] vastly underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak."

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/overview-20140814/en/

The World Food Programme is using its well-developed logistics to deliver food to the more than one million people locked down in the quarantine zones, where the borders of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone intersect.

This is a war effort going on here, a war against a natural enemy. There are rockets being fired, there are people trapped on hilltops and starving to death, there are government ministers shaking in their boots, and the army is being called out. But it's not other human beings that are the enemy this time, and killing people isn't the answer. This time, the enemy takes the form of a virus...

http://www.punchng.com/news/lagos-ebola-patients-neglected-critically-ill-relatives-colleagues/

A description of ramshackle conditions in Nigeria's isolation unit, where the patients are being neglected and an American doctor resorted to personally footing the bill for basic medical supplies. To me, this is far more concerning than the reports of hospital meltdowns in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Although I'm sure in the American mind all African countries are really just one big country, they really aren't. Nigeria collects billions in oil revenues as the world's 10th largest producer, and there are pockets of real wealth in that country. They should not be lacking for anything. In terms of population it is also over 40 times the size of Liberia and 30 times the size of Sierra Leone. The fact that they only have 10 people sick, all tied to the same known man, and they can't handle 10 patients in the whole guddamned country, they can't find enough people brave enough for care for these people... this is disturbing. This is sick. God help them all of this thing really breaks out over there.

Louie Gohmert is deeply, deeply concerned that Ebola might be carried across the border into the US by "undocumented Democrats". (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/08/14/louie-gohmert-suspects-undocumented-democrats-are-bringing-ebola-across-the-border/)

And many people are deeply, deeply concerned than Ignorance might be carried across the boundaires of US states by "insane Republicans".

Guys, as much as I appreciate that someone besides me deigns to post in here, this us about the ebola catastrophe, an emerging health disaster in one of the poorest areas of the world. not US domestic politics. There are 100 other threads to castigate political parties.

Fascinating article on the preparation guidelines the C.D.C. is issuing to U.S. hospitals for ebola (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/16/health/hospitals-in-the-us-get-ready-for-ebola.html?_r=0). Article points out there may actually be drawbacks to full body suits, as they are more complicated to take off and clean, than more lightweight suits recommended by the C.D.C. Other guidelines, for washing and disposal are still under development. C.D.C. director has said ebola spread to U.S. is "inevitable."

Meanwhile, prominent science writer Laurie Garrett has written a scathing Foreign Policy (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/14/you_are_not_nearly_scared_enough_ebola_vaccine_west_africa_outbreak) article on the 'outside' world's indifference the epidemic. She points out that there are only 50 doctors involved in clinical care for all of Liberia's 4 million people. Her recommendations and those of MSF director Dr. Bart Janssens are right and critical.

It's important to recognize the difference here between amateurish scaremongering and legitimate concern. The World Health Organization, Medicins Sans Frontieres, and those who have been professionals in this area for decades, such as Garrett, are not a part of the former. W.H.O. has admitted they were wrong and did not take this seriously enough before late July. MSF has been saying the same for months.

* As an aside, health care for non-ebola care has all but broken down. Women giving birth, people with broken legs, those with treatable diseases such as malaria, simply can't get treatment anymore. Imagine living in a country with no doctors and no hospitals. If you're hurt you're on your own. This is what these people are going through now.

A mob chanting the ebola is a myth destroys an ebola treatment center in the Monrovia suburb of West Point only two days after it opens. Police are on the scene but too intimidated to do anything, and nurses cannot escape patients from fleeing.

The Ministry of Health says the entire suburb, located on a peninsula with a population of 75,000, is to be quarantined. A report by United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that there are four public toilets in the area.[4] Pay toilets exist, but residents cannot afford them, and thus public defecation is common (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Point,_Monrovia)

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jinamoore/two-days-after-it-opens-mob-destroys-ebola-center-in-liberia#4lc9sas

A 12 year old girl locked in a windowless hut with the rotting corpse of her mother, could be heard begging for food and water for days, but the villagers ignored her until she died.

"They were crying all day and all night, begging their neighbors to give them food but everyone was afraid."

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/93259/in-liberia-village-shunned-ebola-victims-left-to-die

Some photos from the suburb of West Point, Monrovia, Liberia (not to be confused with the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Point,_New_York)).

()

"There are no sanitation facilities in West Point.  Which translates as 'everybody poops in the sea'.  With horrendous consequences for community health." - a visitor.

()

"'If you come from West Point, people might not take you to be a good person, criminals come from there, rogues, thieves. But a lot of good people live there, a lot of families. They feel like they are outcasts, like nobody pays attention to them'" - Liberian hip-hop artist.

()

“What brought me to West Point is food. I was so hungry," says Kulah Borbor, recalling why and how she left her hometown in Grand Cape Mount County in western Liberia. Borbor fled heavy fighting in the interior during Liberia’s civil war. With her husband and four young children in tow, she walked for two days before finally settling here in West Point on the edge of the ocean, one of Monrovia’s largest slums.

()

()

()

"As you can probably imagine, health care in Liberia is not the best. Kids often go to school on an empty stomach; if it is Monday, they may not have eaten for a day or two. Still, they go to school without complaint. It is not uncommon to see people with open wounds that desperately need stitches, but who go about their normal business selling goods or carting around over-stuffed wheel barrows. While I was in Monrovia I was worried about malaria. A friend I had dinner with told me, “malaria here is like the flu in the U.S., everyone gets it. It’s just out there.”" - Aid worker

The international community has made "almost zero" response to the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, with western leaders more interested in protecting their own countries than helping contain the crisis that has now claimed more than 1,200 lives, a senior international aid worker said on Tuesday.

Brice de la Vigne, the operations director of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), said politicians in industrialised countries urgently needed to take action, or risk the outbreak spreading much further. "Globally, the response of the international community is almost zero," he told the Guardian. "Leaders in the west are talking about their own safety and doing things like closing airlines – and not helping anyone else."

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/19/western-leaders-ebola-outbreak-africa-medecins-sans-frontieres

“All entertainment centers are to be closed; All video centers are to be closed at 6:00 PM.; Commencing Wednesday, August 20 there will be a curfew from 9:00 PM to 6:00 AM,” she said in a nationwide address on Tuesday. The President said West Point in Monrovia and Dolo Town in Margibi is quarantined under full security watch meaning there will be no movements in and out of those areas.

Holy sh**t, imagine living there right now.

http://frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/news/2717-ebola-curfew-liberia-announces-9-6-restrictions-west-point-quarantined

The latest update from W.H.O. is not good. Guinea is accelerating again after a long dormancy. The international orgs are fully on top of this now yet they are stretched beyond their limit to respond. Any additional scale up would have to come from national governments, but at this point the costs are getting increasingly prohibitive. World leaders may have missed the chance to nip this thing in the bud. Obama is distracted.

Meanwhile, riots in West Point today; apparently the coast guard has also been called out to prevent people from boarding rafts. They're still going to have to get food in...

A visual of the situation (and keep in mind W.H.O. says these numbers are "vastly underestimated"):
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()()()()

()WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE()


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Heroic American Christian aid workers have been cured and released (http://news.emory.edu/stories/2014/08/er_ebola_press_coverage/campus.html) from Emory University.

Donald Trump's reaction (http://sophienettejc.thedeadone.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Donald-Trump-bad-hair_infostarcelebrity.blogspot.com_1.jpg).

Ebola virus is "proprietary." Title of patent: "Human Ebola Virus Species and Compositions and Methods Thereof". You can search in the Net. Google will show you. Moreover, the Ministry of Defense United States allocates money ostensibly for the development of a vaccine against this virus (and not pharma companies). The strain, which is indicated in the patent differs from the present virus. But nevertheless

()

Most charities have shied away from creating specially dedicated pages for ebola fundraising, but UC San Francisco has a page where you can give directly to the response effort. For $50 you can provide personal protective gear for one health care provider. I've given $300 to the ebola effort thus far this year. (A wealthy donor has pledged to match all donations over $250).

https://crowdfund.ucsf.edu/project/53e4f5e60920655b8211663c

Watch the video as well; MSF, WHO, and the Ministry of Health are not taking care of this.

It rolls on: Senegal, Ivory Coast, have shut their land borders and other states have shut sea links.

Food shortages are starting to develop (http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/08/22/342480343/a-food-crisis-follows-africas-ebola-crisis), as ships required to bring in imported rice are reluctant to dock in disease-hit countries. Communal work arrangements have broken down, threatening the harvest.

The kid who was shot in the leg during the West Point riot last week has died. The kid had a totally treatable wound, he was on the front pages of the news all over the world. It's not like this was a massacre, only two or three people were shot. Most prominent was this teen, who had gone to the store to buy food and got caught in the crossfire coming home.

Apparently, the kids' family drove him to JFK hospital where he was refused admission; then they drove him from hospital to hospital all over Monrovia and not a single one admitted him. Finally he ended up at Redemption Hospital and bled to death. He needed an infusion of blood but there was no one in the whole city who could give him blood, so after 2 days he just bled to death, his wound totally untreated.

This is a guy who was on national news and his photo was splashed over every paper in the country. And he couldn't get someone to treat a simple wound for 2 days, and died. Health workers dressed in full ebola gear came to pick up his body and wouldn't let his family near him.

There are stories of pregnant women wandering from hospital to hospital in Monrovia and getting rejected, finally giving birth with no care and some of them died.

This is the new Liberia... NO health system AT ALL. You might as well be in the stone ages. On top of that, it is reported that there are thousands of HIV patients who are no longer getting their retrovirals because the clinic they were going to has stopped functioning.

Also the old one near total lack of healthcare isnt new in Liberia. You think they had working hospitals during the civil war?

True. Part of the reason the healthcare system was knocked down so easily is that it was so weak to begin with.

First good news for Africa in a while -- the situation in Nigeria seems to be stabilizing.

C.D.C. director Tom Frieden is touring Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea (his initial flight was cancelled because Senegal is no longer allowing Brussels Airlines flights to stop over in that country). Here are his comments:

He emphasized that the toll is "far larger than has been recorded, not because they are trying to hide anything but because they are really overwhelmed by these numbers." Beyond this, he said, the cases "are increasing at an extremely quick rate, and this is very alarming."

Because of the outbreak, Liberians who require other kinds of medical care have avoided seeking help. "Urgent health needs are definitely going unmet," Frieden said. "Hospital occupancy" is 10 percent. This means one of the urgent tasks ahead is to make sure treatment is available to patients who are not suffering from Ebola.

Ending the crisis hinges largely on improving infection control and burial practices, Frieden said. Until now, "cremation was not part of the burial culture here," he said, but people are increasingly accepting it.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/08/26/343436300/cdc-director-on-ebola-we-are-definitely-not-at-the-peak

The situation is not slowing in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The only realistic solution to this is going to be a massive public education campaign. Since there are not enough health workers to deal with treating the sick, and disposal of bodies is going to become a much more labor-demanding task as deaths pile up, only massive cooperation by the public is going to stop this epidemic. In countries that have not yet seen ebola yet are at risk, such as Senegal, Mali, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, and Nigeria, massive training through community leaders, church leaders, the media, schools and government must be undertaken to get the population to practice the correct behaviors.

"We have staff at the gate who do nothing but turn away people. This is not easy, because we don't know where they could go," said Karline Kleijer from MSF.

In West Africa, the Ebola epidemic is still spreading rapidly. To help patients MSF opened an emergency clinic last week in the Liberian capital Monrovia. After four days the clinic was full.

Currently there are about 200 patients in the clinic. According Kleijer that could have been more than 600 already if they had opened the doors. That can not be, because so many people infected with Ebola would be a danger to the employees of MSF.

Not administered
Because there are not enough emergency clinics and regular healthcare is not functioning most Ebola patients can not be administered. Therefore, the clinic expanded by another dozen beds. But even that is not enough. "We know that there are thousands of patients are walking in the street, infecting other people," says Kleijer.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=227003

-----

Crematorium exhausted:

"Monrovia (AFP) - The crematorium in the Liberian capital Monrovia is struggling to deal with the dozens of Ebola victims whose bodies are being brought each day, the Red Cross said Thursday.
Fayah Tamba, the secretary-general of the Liberian division of the charity, said workers were having to return corpses to a hospital in the city after being told there was not the capacity to cremate all the victims.
She told a local radio station that she believes it may now be necessary for international organisations to take over responsibility for handling the crisis from the national authorities."

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=226840

----------------------

Ebola-infested bodies lying the street being consumed by dogs:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201408260125.html

[/float]]http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-ebola-africa-20140829-story.html
 (http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-ebola-africa-20140829-story.html[float=right)
A man from Guinea confirmed to be Senegal's first case of ebola in this outbreak

EDIT: Link fixed

Wrong link, but sh**t. Our only hope was that this could be contained in those three countries. This cannot be allowed to devastate Africa. The continent is on the verge of an economic explosion, similar to where East Asia was in 1960. If the virus is allowed to head that off, it would be the greatest tragedy since the outbreak of WWI.

MSF asks for more: not lip service, but action

http://www.msf.org/article/ebola-failures-international-outbreak-response

CDC: Window is Closing on Containing Ebola

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/02/cdc-window-is-closing-on-containing-ebola.html

Days after returning from West Africa, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Thomas Frieden opened a press conference with a sobering admonition about the effort to contain the Ebola epidemic to West Africa: “the window is closing.”

In an impassioned call to action, he urged American doctors, nurses, and health care professionals to join Africa in its fight. “This isn’t just the countries’ problem,” he said. “It’s a global problem.” With vivid detail, Frieden painted a gruesome picture of overcrowded isolation centers in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, where health care workers are struggling to keep up with “basic care.” He mentioned deficiencies not only in the number of doctors, nurses, and health managers available, but the protective gear needed to keep them safe. Without an immediate change in the current landscape, he said, the worst is yet to come. “The level of outbreak is beyond anything we’ve seen—or even imagined,” Frieden said.
...
But even more alarming than the disturbing images, was the lack of outside support. “The most upsetting thing I saw was what I didn’t see,” he said. “No data from countries where it’s spreading, no rapid response teams, no trucks, a lack of efficient management,” he said. “I could not possibly overstate the need for an urgent response.”

We may now have a case too:


http://www.thelocal.at/20140903/suspected-case-of-ebola-in-vienna

The U.S. ambassador to Liberia, Deborah Malac, admits that more should have been done months ago:

"I don't think any of us quite realized the scope of what we were dealing with. This is the largest outbreak in history of this disease. We are serious in doing what we can from the U.S government side to address this..[but] we need the government of Liberia; we need the people of Liberia; we need WHO (the World Health Organization); we need all the other international partners out there, because this is a global issue.

"It's not just a Liberia issue," she said, "It's something that we all need to confront".

http://allafrica.com/stories/201409021646.html?aa_source=acrdn-f0

The CDC is committing $21 million from its budget, and WHO has asked for $430 million. Two months ago the numbers were being quoted in the hundreds of thousands:


Well it's only been two months and we're already nearly halfway there...

The test from Hamburg says it's not Ebola.

I thought that would likely turn out to be the case.  In its early stages, there are several diseases that share symptoms with Ebola and are far more common.  That was a contributing factor to how Ebola spread so much.

There are reports of suspected cases that come in from all over the world on a nearly daily basis; and surely even more that aren't being reported. So far virtually all of them have come out  negative, which is why I've stopped posting about such instances. However, if the disease continues to spread in West Africa, it is only a matter of time before it escapes the region.

Another concern is that it was reported about a week ago that a Harvard team decoded about 99 ebola virus genomes and found over 50 mutations of the virus since it first broke out in West Africa (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140828142738.htm). The more people the virus infects, the more chances it has the mutate, and the longer it goes on, the more it infects.

Meanwhile, the NY Times has published a good article on how budget cuts have devastated W.H.O. (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/world/africa/cuts-at-who-hurt-response-to-ebola-crisis.html?_r=0), leading the response to the current outbreak to be unprofessional, understaffed, lacking in experienced people, and lacking in leadership.

Meanwhile, the virus is spreading even faster than I had anticipated. If anyone thinks I have been too worried or too concerned about the virus, it appears that the opposite was true, as at the end of July when the last update was just over 1,300 cases, I predicted there would be roughly 3,000 cases by September 1, then revised that to 3,200 cases three weeks ago.

However, the latest W.H.O. update indicates 3,685 cases as of August 31. (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_09_04_ebola/en/) If the virus is growing at an exponential rate, the exponent is increasing. There approximately half as many cases about 23 or 24 days prior to the 31st, meaning that the doubling time is dropping.

So, given that your estimate has been fairly accurate what is your prognosis for the next 3-6 months?

I have updated my extrapolations based on the current growth rate (past 24 days). At this rate, there will be 60,000 infections in three months and about 900,000 infections in six months.

If it ever reaches that point, of course W.H.O. will have stopped keeping track.

The third American with it is coming to the Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha via Offutt AFB this morning.

Great news... the EU is committing about $200 million to the fight.

Due to earlier epidemics, many in West Africa have acquired immunity (or at least resistance) to Ebola (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/06/health/ebola-immunity.html?hpw&rref=science&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpHedThumbWell&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=0), so it may not be quite as devastating as originally feared.

It looks like Obama is finally starting to take this seriously:

The US military will join the fight against fast-spreading Ebola in Africa, president Barack Obama said, warning it will be months before the epidemic slows. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-08/us-military-to-help-ebola-effort/5726202)


Better late than never, bud. Godspeed!

Beet, quick question.  Do you have a wall (or two) of your home covered in news clippings, maps, photos, etc?  Perhaps with red string pinned all over to connect them together?

What, am I supposed to care about things in the proportion as they are reported on CNN? I determine the importance of situations through logic, not being led mindlessly by what some news executives in Atlanta or NYC deem will generate the most advertising dollars for their corporate entity. I am grateful for the mainstream media for first alerting me that Ebola had reached Conakry in April, after that I followed the story on my own.

The same logic and instincts that led me to think that there would be a populist backlash against Obama in November 2008, or that the Euro crisis was more serious than was being credence for in April 2010 (or that it had reached its peak by October 2012), led me to believe back in June that this Ebola situation was more serious than the mainstream media was giving it credit for. The last 3 months have vindicated me again and again, as well as MSF/Doctors Without Borders, which I have been holding up from the beginning as the ones we should be listening to. I am glad that the POTUS is finally coming around.

Me back on July 19:


W.H.O. today:


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKBN0H31RU20140908

I'd say being six weeks ahead of the World Health Organization based solely on reading news reports is pretty damned impressive. Another thing I deserve accolades on with this.

Liberia: Ebola Patients Starve At JFK

The three patients, all men, escaped butt naked after they reportedly frightened unarmed security officers assigned to the holding center at Cholera Unit, threatening that if they were not allowed outside, they would transmit the virus by vomiting and urinating on the security.

"The worst of it all during the dramatic scene, it took the Response Unit of the Ebola task Force about four hours to come on the scene to disaffect the area. They were running like though armed robbers were after them, touching everything they came across: children, women and men ran as fast as their feet could take them," he added.

The patients, who was seen crying bitterly for food, narrated that since many of them were taken to the center, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare abandoned the center, leaving them to the grace of God for survival. [...] he later narrated his ordeal that the managerial staff at the center only spray them on a regular basis and provide a meal once a day. "My people, hunger will kill us first before the Ebola Virus can reach its peak in our bodies. Nobody cares for us;, they collect us from our houses with high expectation that the government will provide food and medication, but it is proven to be the contrary," he said in tears.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201409081328.html?viewall=1

Jeez. This is like a horror movie. Ebola is raping this country.

Did those same insticts also tell you Christine O'Donnel was going to win her senate race?

I think they're the same instincts that told him that it was a waste of time to post news stories about other GOP candidates for the 2012 presidential nomination, when Palin would obviously be the nominee (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=120374.msg2600706#msg2600706).

Got me there, Mr. Morden, but why does Panda Express know about this? He/she has only been a member since July.

I'm a quick learner.

Panda Express is Aizen's new account:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195520.0

You'd know this if you showed up for moderator board committee meetings.  :P

Or you're a previous poster known as Aizen who was staunchly anti-Hillary? That explains the vendetta against me.

But getting back on track regarding ebola, Mr. Moderate summed it up quite well

The difference is that those are all known diseases that have more or less had the same pattern for decades. AIDS was terrifying in the early 1980s, as it should have been, and it eventually became a gigantic catastrophe. George W. Bush deserves credit, both personally and as a president, for not writing off Africa as a lost cause and putting American money into a cause which did a lot of good for very little personal or national benefit.

Ebola is worrying precisely because the pattern of infection is totally new and unknown. It is unknown what the ultimate consequences of the current outbreak are going to be. There is no precedent. All we have is the current exponential growth rates and the lack of any particular reason that I can think of as to how the disease might be controlled; even if it says in the three countries at the epicenter currently; still quite a catastrophe. If we had an Ebola outbreak of this size every year, as with Malaria and Tuberculosis, it certainly would be less worrying.

Also, some other stuff that may have been too obvious to mention before. The fatality rate for Ebola is orders of magnitude higher than than these other diseases. In 2012, there were 200 million cases of malaria and only 627,000 deaths, a 0.6% fatality rate. And most of those people probably died because they didn't receive the proper treatment. One third of the world population is thought to be infected with Tuberculosis bacteria. 90% are asymptomatic. Of those "incident cases" that do occur, among the HIV-negative population about 1 in 9 resulted in a fatality. AIDS was highly fatal in the 1980s until the mid-1990s, but is now treatable. Survival time increases to up to a decade and with proper, early treatment the death rate falls by 80%.

In contrast, Ebola's death rate in the current outbreak is between 65%-75% within a very short amount of time. The official Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is currently about 50%-55%, but that is diluted by the inclusion of newly reported cases that have not yet had time to resolve. If Ebola ever became as common as Malaria, for instance, it would likely kill more people than World War I, the Spanish Flu, the Holocaust and World War II combined. The gruesomeness of Ebola cannot be denied either. Bleeding everywhere, vomiting out your internals, and melting organs are not things anyone likes to contemplate.

It's ironic that the article Mr. Moderate links concludes by blaming the "hysterical" media for people's fear of Ebola, but I have made my disdain for the mainstream media clear throughout this thread. If I followed the media, 80% of my posting here would have been about the few cases of Ebola patients brought to the U.S. for treatment (or the constant reports of "suspected cases" here and there), since that is mostly what the U.S. media covers. Heck, if I followed the media 80% of my posting here would be on ISIS and not Ebola. I am not concerned about Ebola because of the mainstream media. What I follow & have followed from the beginning are available throughout this thread to see: (1) Medicins Sans Frontiers / Doctors Without Borders (2) The governments of Liberia and Sierra Leone (3) The World Health Organization (4) The Centers for Disease Control (5) Direct eyewitness accounts of events happening in the ground. If you listen to these people and groups, which have more knowledge about this situation than any in the world, you will see that they are worried, and have been for some time.

The apathy and resistance to caring about Ebola, on the other hand, is driven IMHO by a quadrifecta of human follies that progressives should abhor the most: (1) traditional, religious superstition and ignorance. It is because of ignorance and being mislead by traditions, pastors, witch doctors, etc. that is the most damaging problem causing Ebola to spread. All the doctors and supplies in the world will not fix it unless people get educated, and begin believing in the existence of Ebola relying on scientifically-backed methods to control Ebola (2) classism. Rich people and those of us in rich countries do not care as much about Ebola precisely because we think our better equipped hospitals and medical systems will protect us. The subtext of this is that it is ok if the poorest people in the world die of Ebola for lack of good health care systems, as long as the rich are protected. (3) racism. Let's face it, if this was happening in Europe or Japan there would be a lot more attention to it. We have a fatalistic view of Africa that the place is a giant garbage dump and perpetually hopeless. This couldn't be farther from the truth as the continent is finally starting to pull itself up. But that would be cut short by Ebola. (4) nationalism. I am always amused at how the panic over Ebola starts to jump as soon as it is reported in another "country." As far as I am concerned, countries do not matter when it comes to natural phenomena, such as global warming, or Ebola. Well at least, they do not matter except to the extent that they influence human behaviors. But there is nothing magical about Ebola crossing borders. Unlike with wars or economics, being on one side of the border or the other won't protect you.

Here is quote from the Liberian Minister of Defence, addressing the U.N. Security Council:


I assure you, CNN did not put him up to this.

U.S. Plans Worker ‘Surge’ to Aid Ebola Effort in Africa

The U.S. is planning a “surge” of federal workers into West African countries hit by Ebola, and has hired the air-ambulance company that evacuated two infected U.S. citizens in July to support them.

About 1,400 U.S. government employees are in the region now, and more are on the way, the State Department said in a contract document posted today. As workers for global aid groups have fled, “the vacuum is increasingly being filled” by U.S. aid providers, the document said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/u-s-plans-worker-surge-to-aid-ebola-effort-in-africa.html

That's a lot more than I'd thought... previously we had reports of up to 100 C.D.C. workers. This feels a lot more significant. A lot more of them are also being repatriated after being exposed to Ebola than is being reported. We only hear about the confirmed cases.

In the worst case scenario here, Africa may be partially recolonized. The governments here have no operational capacity.

U.S. State Department orders 160,000 hazmat suits for Ebola (http://www.awesomecapital.com/awesome-blog/lakeland-industries-launches-hazmat-suits-for-ebola)

The best article written about the current outbreak thus far:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2014/10/ebola-virus-epidemic-containment#

I've created a sub on reddit to track news of the Ebola epidemic (http://www.reddit.com/r/EbolaEpidemic/). Give it a look and consider cross-posting articles there.

Me on July 26:


Samaritan's Purse today:


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/are-hospitals-part-ebola-problem-charity-wants-new-strategy-n202486

Beet, do you have any particular feelings on Samaritan's Purse as an organization? I've donated to them recently cause it seemed like they've been doing good work in northwestern Africa (among other places) in the midst of this epidemic.

But if there are other NGOs you think are doing a better job or are more worthy of donations I'd definitely like to know.

I donated to them when Brantly and Writebol got sick. What I liked what was unlike M.S.F. (who have their own reasons), Samaritan's Purse allows you to earmark your donation for your cause of choice (http://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/donate-online/). I have a high opinion of any relief agency that has been active in responding to Ebola in West Africa, given that few of them are, or at least very few of them were until recently.

Well, there it is (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/15/ebola-crisis-obama-administration-to-request-1-billion-to-fight-outbreak/). The billion mark is finally being mentioned.

It looks like a major announcement is coming tomorrow.

8 Ebola health care workers / journalists were found hacked to death in a gruesome manner and their bodies dumped in a septic tank in or near Wome village in N'zérékoré prefecture, Guinea.

"According to our source, the eight bodies found include: the sub-prefect of Wome, the prefectural health director of the regional hospital N'zérékoré, deputy director of the regional hospital center head Health Womé, an evangelist pastor of the health center Zao, two trainee technicians rural radio journalist and a private radio Zali Fm."

http://guineenews.org/violences-a-womey-huit-corps-exhumes-six-interpellations-et-une-declaration-du-pm-attendue/

"This is likely the greatest peacetime challenge that the United Nations and its agencies have ever faced," - U.N. health chief Dr. Margaret Chan

"If the international community does not stand up, we will be wiped out," - Jackson Naimah, a team leader for Doctors Without Borders at a treatment center in the Liberian capital Monrovia

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/chief-calls-billion-fight-ebola-25603216

Thought this might be interesting to a forum full of map enthusiasts :P

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/health/sns-rt-us-foundation-ebola-maps-20140917,0,6565204.story

3000 dead:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-29382412 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-29382412)

My estimate from Sept. 4, when as of Aug. 30 there had been 3,700 cases, would be about 7,400 cases by Sept. 24. As of Sept. 23, there are 6,554/6,574 cases (http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/135029/1/roadmapupdate26sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1). That puts me over by about 700-800. Accordingly, I am revising my projections. Per my calculations, the doubling time has increased from 24 to 27 days.

The only qualm I have with Samaritan's Purse is that they are noted for their strong support of socon-itude.

Your projections from Sept. 4 still seem correct, in line with those of the CDC: between 500,000 and 1.4 million cases by January...

CDC is using a factor of ~2.5 to account for underreported cases, and this is how they reach 1.4 million. I am only looking at confirmed, probable and suspected cases. Their 550k remains a worst case scenario and CDC director Tom Friedan has said he does not think it will come about. Let's hope.

There is some chatter that the current suspected ebola case in Dallas County may be more than what you usually get with this story. Supposedly the CDC is sending teams, and that's unusual.

Nigeria appears to have contained this outbreak (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/01/health/ebola-outbreak-in-nigeria-appears-to-be-over.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LargeMediaHeadlineSum&module=photo-spot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0):

If Africa's largest economy could not have contained a single case that was identified almost as soon as he stepped out of the airport, the implications would have been too horrid to contemplate. But a win is a win, so a tentative congratulations (against the outside chance there's still any unidentified patients) to Nigeria then.

The below comment has no wider political implications whatsoever.

"MAKENI, Sierra Leone — “Where’s the corpse?” the burial-team worker shouted, kicking open the door of the isolation ward at the government hospital here. The body was right in front of him, a solidly built young man sprawled out on the floor all night, his right hand twisted in an awkward clench.

The other patients, normally padlocked inside, were too sick to look up as the body was hauled away. Nurses, some not wearing gloves and others in street clothes, clustered by the door as pools of the patients’ bodily fluids spread to the threshold. A worker kicked another man on the floor to see if he was still alive. The man’s foot moved and the team kept going. It was 1:30 in the afternoon.

In the next ward, a 4-year-old girl lay on the floor in urine, motionless, bleeding from her mouth, her eyes open. A corpse lay in the corner — a young woman, legs akimbo, who had died overnight. A small child stood in a cot watching as the team took the body away, stepping around a little boy lying immobile next to black buckets of vomit. They sprayed the body, and the little girl on the floor, with chlorine as they left."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/africa/ebola-spreading-in-west-africa.html?smid=nytcore-ipad-share&smprod=nytcore-ipad&_r=2

The first confirmed case of EVD in the US has been identified in, where else?, Texas (http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/10/us-hunts-contacts-seriously-ill-ebola-patient/).

In this case, the Dallas hospital was far less competent than the Nigerian hospital -- at least they didn't send home a patient displaying active symptoms with a bottle of antibiotics.

I never understand why these stories are so popular. Some people are sick. It's bad. I hope we don't get sick here. That's literally the whole story.

Some people are killing each other in the Middle East. It's far away from us. I hope gas prices don't go up.

So I heard a story from Israel by word-of-mouth that the guy in Texas that had Ebola is dead; but is reported as alive in the United States. What's the deal there?

A Spanish nurse has been confirmed to have contracted ebola, after treating a Spanish priest at the end of September. She was working in a facility especially designed by Spain to handle ebola patients and (the facility) had treated another Spanish priest back in August. They are not sure how the nurse contracted ebola. She had entered the patient's room twice: once while he was still alive, and once after his death. After his death, the nurse went on vacation. She had a fever for several days while on vacation before being isolated. She is 44 years old and married with no children. There is no confirmation of how many people she had contact with.

This is far bigger news than the Dallas case. Dallas... I mean come on, it was just a matter of time. You have 10,000 people from the affected region that were coming in by commercial airplane every 3 months. The experts conceded as much.

This... is a genuine surprise. Otherwise, the authorities would never have let this woman go on vacation. Look at the precautions they were taking:

()

()

()

People is reeeally scared here. My mum would pick the first flight to Brazil if I let her.

Ebola in my state now ?


http://www.thelocal.at/20141006/salzburg-activates-ebola-emergency-plan

"El Mundo reported that it was the nurse who asked to be tested for Ebola, having to insist repeatedly on being tested before it was done on Monday"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/07/ebola-crisis-substandard-equipment-nurse-positive-spain

Once again, proactive people = win, bureaucracy = fail.

So, the world is finally waking up to the severity of the Ebola problem. The problem now is that there is no coordinated response. If we had a single world government, this would be easy. But instead we have all these different organizations each "contributing". In an environment such as this, with such a scary disease, it's easy for individual organizations like the US govt, WHO, MSF, to get caught up in a hero complex, the idea that we're already doing more than 99% of people out there, so let's pat ourselves on the back. Because it's true. They are heroes.

But a problem needs more than just a series of contributions, it needs a solution. Particularly, as we've seen, since the world is not prepared for a large scale response to this. Any large scale response will take months to get into gear. This is akin to a military mobilization for a type of war we've never fought before. There needs to be one comprehensive plan of how to defeat this ebola epidemic from start to finish. There needs to be a single, centralized command structure, international in nature, that will take control and implement this plan. It must have authority to coordinate all actors, including governments, NGOs, and international bodies. And it must be competently and efficiently run. One would think the genesis of such a headquarters would be in the United Nations, but WHO seems out of its depth and not in charge. The U.S. has contributed a lot. Russia, China, Japan, India, etc. have contributed far less. The response seems ad-hoc, almost as if the former colonial masters are being asked into each country to handle each one separately. No one is in charge, so ships full of supplies sit in dock for weeks.

This is all going to have to change. The sooner the better.

It's not Ebola after all ...

Thomas Duncan has died.

Meanwhile, some Ebola patients in Liberia are coming back to life, after having died of Ebola (http://allafrica.com/stories/201409240829.html).

Fascinating difference between Figure 2 and Figure 3 (http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136020/1/roadmapsitrep_8Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1)

There appears to be some sort of serious degradation of reporting capabilities in Liberia; WHO has said case numbers will likely be revised up.

In comparison, reporting capabilities in Sierra Leone are stellar. Unfortunately, they show the situation is starting to really take off there.

The nurse told that she would have made a mistake when taking off the protective suit.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/08/inenglish/1412773314_084887.html


According to news here, medical staff received little training on the protocol of protection. When doctors and nurses are taking off their suits, the protocol says that someone has to be monitoring they are following the process correctly.

Sadly, Teresa Romero's condition worsened after a slight improvement.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/09/inenglish/1412862488_584997.html


Teresa Romero was being administered hyperimmune serum from a noon called Paciencia Melgar, who survived the virus in Liberia while working with the Spanish missionary Miguel Pajares died on August 12. The noon wasn't evacuated to Spain, despite her religious order asked the government to do so, because she isn't a Spanish citizen. Symptomatic, even though our government isn't worse than other western world administrations in that regard.

The Spanish government has established a crisis cabinet presided by Deputy PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, after the minister of Healthcare Ana Mato was bashed by media and opposition because of her disastrous communication policy (and negligence, according to some)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/10/inenglish/1412949468_311967.html

A vaccine, effective in animals, is about to commence human trials (http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/10/13/canadianmade_ebola_vaccine_to_start_clinical_trials_in_humans.html). You'd have to be brave and selfless to participate.

We passed 4000 dead a few days ago.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/14/wonkbook-lessons-from-the-second-u-s-ebola-case/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/14/wonkbook-lessons-from-the-second-u-s-ebola-case/)

This is just awful. As far as America is concerned, like I said over a month ago, all flights to and from any African nation should cease immediately.

We already had an infection in the U.S. from a person who came over from an infected nation. It must end now. No more risks.

Remember, we're the same country that locked up Japanese-Americans "just to make sure". If that was thin, I'm pretty sure stopping flights to a from nations with a deadly disease is a pretty reasonable idea.

There's Ebola in the US now, so all other nations should stop accepting any flights or ships from the US as well, even if it's transporting goods and not a passenger plane (the pilot could always be infected).  Let's crash the global economy, to stop the spread of Ebola.

Thus far a single person has died from Ebola in the US. Every single day, close to a 100 people die in traffic related accidents in the US. This isn't going to be a huge pandemic.

Maybe the U.S. government should place the state of Texas under quarantine then and cordon off the Texan border with troops. Sometimes it becomes necessary to sever a limb in order to save the rest of the body.

It must end now. No more risks.

Words cannot express the stupidity of this idea.

Oh Naso, you such a racist.

Strictly speaking, banning all transport from town to village in the affected areas is the most effective way in which to halt the spread of Ebola in affected areas and banning transport from infected areas to non infected areas internationally would prevent it from travelling there. It's not that mind blowing a concept. Whether it's a 'very nice thing to do' is a separate issue.

Looks like Ebola could already be in Naso's neighbourhood, as the nurse who now has it as well went to Cleveland and then took a flight back. The day before she was tested positive for it.

Watch out Naso !

Make jokes. I care more about the well being of my fellow Americans than the travel of foreigners.

At your expense? Nothing's easier.

How can you not take this seriously?

Americans never travel internationally?  Then how did I get here in Oz?

You're missing my point. No more travel incoming from any affected nations. No more trips, no more missions no more visas no more "students just wanting to come to learn". Our own security trumps that.

Did you honestly care one bit that thousands were dying until there was a confirmed case in the United States?

Yes I did, but as far as U.S. security goes, we have to assure we're safe before the others. We're the policeman of the world and have been since 1945. If the policemen are vulnerable, everyone is even moreso.

♪♪♪ Seems rike no one takes this seriousry... ♪♪♪ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEaKX9YYHiQ)

I understand your lack of intelligence especially being from a region of the world whose borders have been spliced and diced more in the last 100 years than a pizza at an Italian pizzeria, but I think we should all agree that something as serious as ebola shouldn't be handled with a soft soap.

Yeah, it's not like them foreigners are real people, just statistics waiting to happen.

That doesn't compare at all and you know it. Don't be dishonest.

So does anyone have any actual reasons why we shouldn't have a travel ban on majorly affected nations? Or just more ad hominem and deflection?

I hate to sound like this but the majorly affected nations are also kind of economically easier to have this kind of policy with. It's not like we're restricting travel with China or India or anything.

Unfortunately, this will do pretty much nothing useful. At this point, if I understand it right, flights between affected countries and their neighbors have already been stopped. Nor are there any non-stops from those three countries and the US. So, the people from the epidemic zone will be flying in from Europe, not from Africa.

Yup, indeed there is widespread concern here that someone may have been infected by the nurse and is not currently showing symptoms (a friend of mine was very concerned upon discovering that her mother was at the airport at the same time as the person with ebola). I also spoke to an acquaintance who attends Kent State University, which the ebola patient briefly visited, and he told me that there was a great deal of panic on campus.

The amount of unnecessary panic in Dallas right now must be reaching remarkable proportions if it's this bad here.

This was not a joke. It was a serious advice to remain vigilant.

Because someone might knock on your door and bring you:

()

Now this is a joke:

If you were just trying to prove your own intelligence, then you should probably keep trying. Maybe one day you'll get there.

True. You must send the LAPD to Liberia and the NYPD to Sierra Leone immediately. They'll catch the virus and then they'll read the mean Ebola its rights. What are you waiting for? Go, policemen of the world!

You realize that he came on a flight from Belgium, right?

Are you sure Belgium is not just another name for Burundi?

I'm pretty sure Naso has heard of neither.

The Danish pharmaceutical company Bavarian Nordic has made an agreement with American Janssen Biotech about development of an Ebola vaccine. Animal tests has shown that their MVA-BN vaccine combined with Janssen's Advaxc gives a 100% protection against Ebola, and both companies are therefore eager to test a combo vaccine on humans. BN stocks up 21% on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange after the news.

The growth rate of the official count has slowed dramatically since September and exponential growth, at least in Liberia has come to an end for now. As a result, there were fewer than 10,000 cases on October 20, instead of the over 13,000 in my projection. As a result, I am revising my model from exponential to linear.

You're aware that reporting in Liberia has broken down, yes?

Just so you all know, with the hysterical and uninformed (this is not news) input from Naso et al... this thread is officially a greater threat to humanity than Ebola.