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Title: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: dead0man on June 25, 2014, 05:43:22 AM Turkey, traditionally has been against the idea but they seem to be warming up to it. cite (http://time.com/2898883/iraq-turkey-kurd-isis/)
Quote “The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of entity they are living in,” a spokesman for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party told a Kurdish news outlet. Baghdad is in no position to stop them. Assad is in the same boat, only worse. Iran may want as many allies as it can get (and a buffer zone) against ISIS/radical Sunnis. Of course Somalialand did the same thing in a sorta the same kind of situation 20+ years ago and still isn't recognized by anybody (and I don't really understand why not).I think they will (minus the parts in Turkey and Iran) and I think it's great. The Kurds deserve a homeland state. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: dead0man on June 25, 2014, 05:47:53 AM and for some reason, the White House is pushing against the idea.....link (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-kerry-to-urge-kurds-not-to-give-up-on-iraq/)
Quote <snip> CBS News correspondent Margaret Brennan says Secretary of State John Kerry was in Erbil to have a "heart to heart with Kurdish officials," according to a senior U.S. official, and make it clear that the Obama administration believes it is in "nobody's interest to have kind of al Qaeda on steroids" on its southern border. The only way to prevent that happening, U.S. officials believe, is to make sure a moderate Sunni component is able to clear territory seized by ISIS, and to do that the Kurds need to remain part of the Iraqi government. The U.S. official, who spoke to CBS News on the condition of anonymity, said that if the Kurds decide to withdraw from the Baghdad political process, "it will accelerate a lot of the negative trends" in Iraq and the wider region. <snip> Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Donerail on June 25, 2014, 12:23:18 PM Of course Somalialand did the same thing in a sorta the same kind of situation 20+ years ago and still isn't recognized by anybody (and I don't really understand why not). Recognition sets the precedent that other secession movements are free to change colonial boundaries if it suits them (or, at least, that's the Africa Union's argument, and the US is unwilling to move forward without the AU moving first). Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Simfan34 on June 25, 2014, 12:41:35 PM I doubt Turkey would want to see it, regardless of what a spokesman might say.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: politicus on June 25, 2014, 01:10:38 PM The problem is that the Turkish part of Kurdistan is by far the largest. Kurdistan without the areas in Turkey is sort of an amputated entity and the question of a unification of an independent Kurdistan with Turkish Kurdistan would always loom in the background.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Potus on June 25, 2014, 05:06:11 PM It's dangerous to start talking about partition at this point. Any talk of dividing the Middle East among ethnic lines more than they already are is dangerous.
Our priority in the region, even though this isn't really your question, is maintaining a unified Iraq and continuing pressure on regimes in the region to promote human rights and democracy. We have to secure Iraq as a multiethnic, rule of law democracy. Our hasty withdrawal from the country led to a decline in stability. A Kurdish nation would set a very dangerous precedent. It would signal that the world no longer has interest in protecting multiethnic nations and building peace in the Middle East. It would encourage ethnic secession movements across the region and light a new fire that threatens global security. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: BaconBacon96 on June 25, 2014, 05:17:56 PM There should be. They have proven to be more stable than the Baghdad government.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: swl on June 25, 2014, 05:21:00 PM I don't think we will see a real independent and recognized Kurdish country within five years or even ten years, but my opinion is that Syria and Iraq will remain messy for a while and the Kurdish will keep their de facto independence or a large autonomy on their areas in these countries after things calm down.
No Iraqi or Syrian government will be strong enough to prevent it. But for diplomatic reasons, official independence will take longer. They have been fighting for a century and I think they have learned how to wait, they probably realize that there is no point in pissing off Turkey or anyone else by rushing things. Most Kurds in Turkey don't even want independence, they just want some of their rights to be recognized and I think things will end up peacefully there as Turkey becomes less nationalist and more aware of human rights. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Mr. Morden on June 25, 2014, 05:59:50 PM Weirdly, Iraqi Kurdistan's closest ally in the region these days seems to be Turkey. Not sure that means that Turkey is truly supportive of them forming their own state though.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on June 25, 2014, 06:27:20 PM It's dangerous to start talking about partition at this point. Any talk of dividing the Middle East among ethnic lines more than they already are is dangerous. Our priority in the region, even though this isn't really your question, is maintaining a unified Iraq and continuing pressure on regimes in the region to promote human rights and democracy. We have to secure Iraq as a multiethnic, rule of law democracy. Our hasty withdrawal from the country led to a decline in stability. A Kurdish nation would set a very dangerous precedent. It would signal that the world no longer has interest in protecting multiethnic nations and building peace in the Middle East. It would encourage ethnic secession movements across the region and light a new fire that threatens global security. Just like its far too late to stuff the nuclear genie back in the bottle, its far too late to stop people talking about partitioning Iraq. Ethnic secission movements are a very real thing - look at the Scottish Independence Referendum coming up this fall. Personally, I think smaller nations are a good thing - the failure modes of small to mid-sized governments, while bad, have a hard time reaching the mind-numbingly catastrophic levels that those of large and very large government can reach. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 25, 2014, 07:31:17 PM There already is a Kurdish nation. There just isn't a Kurdish state. [/pedant]
I doubt it though. Which is unfortunate, because the Kurds are the only ones over there who seem to have their sh[inks] together. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: homelycooking on June 25, 2014, 07:34:07 PM There already is a Kurdish nation. There just isn't a Kurdish state. [/pedant] Call it ISIL's "Little Miss Muffet" problem - curds in the whey. [/Ernest] Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 25, 2014, 11:19:19 PM There already is a Kurdish nation. There just isn't a Kurdish state. [/pedant] Call it ISIL's "Little Miss Muffet" problem - curds in the whey. [/Ernest] I hadn't thought of that pun, but I certainly wish I had. Still, the idea that multi-national states work in an era where political legitimacy is seen to be based in popular consent rather than divine providence is one that has been proven to be wrong time and time again. So long as Iraqi Kurds see themselves as Kurds first and Iraqis second or even lower in priority, there will continue to be the push for a Kurdish state. ISIS' success so far has been because Malaki ran a government of the Shia, by the Shia, for the Shia. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 26, 2014, 07:40:49 AM The problem is that the Turkish part of Kurdistan is by far the largest. Kurdistan without the areas in Turkey is sort of an amputated entity and the question of a unification of an independent Kurdistan with Turkish Kurdistan would always loom in the background. As far as I remember, Iraqi Kurdistan (properly defined) is larger. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: politicus on June 26, 2014, 08:36:04 AM The problem is that the Turkish part of Kurdistan is by far the largest. Kurdistan without the areas in Turkey is sort of an amputated entity and the question of a unification of an independent Kurdistan with Turkish Kurdistan would always loom in the background. As far as I remember, Iraqi Kurdistan (properly defined) is larger. The Turkish provinces with a Kurdish majority or clear plurality are 190.000 km2 and all of Iraq is 437.000 km2. So you would need a pretty "imperialist" vision of whats "properly" Kurdish for that to be true. Basically saying that almost half of Iraq is part of the properly defined Iraqi Kurdistan. Anyway, Turkey is clearly the country with the largest Kurdish population, so a Kurdistan without the Turkish areas will always seem like unfinished business, hence provoking Turkish anxities. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: bgwah on June 26, 2014, 10:41:04 PM Iraq has already been partitioned. How long it takes for the international community to formally recognize that is anybody's guess.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: ingemann on June 27, 2014, 05:54:42 AM I think people should remember that when we talk about Kurds and the Kurdish language, it's in my understanding a much more diverse group than we expect, linguistic their language are at least as diverse as the Scandinavian and Iberian languages. In fact the primary dialect in Iraqi Kurdistan are the same one as Iranian Kurdistan talk, while Syrian and turkish talk another barely mutual intelligible (with the Iran-Iraq one) dialect, a major distinction are that Turkish-Syrian Kurd have more loan words from Turkish and Armenian, while Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish burrow from Arabic and Farsi. As such one united Kurdistan may not necessary be the goal of the Iraqi Kurds, who could risk being dominated by the Turkish Kurds, through they would likely welcome the Syrian Kurds, who would only make up a minority of population.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 29, 2014, 07:43:47 PM Bibi just lent his support for a Kurd nation for what it's worth.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Mr. Morden on July 02, 2014, 02:13:19 AM http://time.com/2945035/iraqi-kurds-to-vote-on-independence/
Quote The partition of Iraq lurched closer to reality on Tuesday when the head of the country’s already quasi-autonomous Kurdish region publicly declared he would schedule a referendum on independence. Polls and previous votes indicate that the measure is certain to pass, leading, in all likelihood, to an independent Kurdistan on the northern and northeastern borders of Iraq. “From now on, we won’t hide that that’s our goal,” Massoud Barzani, president of the Regional Kurdistan Government, told the BBC in an interview. “Iraq is effectively partitioned now. Are we supposed to stay in this tragic situation the country’s living? It’s not me who will decide on independence. It’s the people.” The referendum will come in “a matter of months,” Barzani said. He said the Kurdistan parliament must first establish an independent electoral authority, then establish the date for the referendum that Barzani made clear will end with the creation of a state. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: dead0man on July 02, 2014, 02:17:06 AM Good.
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 02, 2014, 04:29:40 AM Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on July 02, 2014, 11:42:23 AM On paper yes, although I suspect the country will immediately dissolve into a civil war between Talabani and Barzani's forces :( Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Mr. Morden on July 11, 2014, 09:35:04 PM The US is expanding its supposedly "secret" CIA facility on the outskirts of Erbil, suggesting that regardless of what the US government may be saying publicly now, they'll be more than happy to keep working with the Kurds after they declare independence:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/07/11/4231510/expansion-of-secret-facility-in.html Quote “It’s no secret that the American special forces and CIA have a close relationship with the peshmerga,” said the Kurdish official, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity because he was discussing covert military operations. He added that the facility had operated even “after the Americans were forced out of Iraq by Maliki,” a reference to the 2011 U.S. troop withdrawal after the Obama administration and the Iraqi government couldn’t agree on a framework for U.S. forces remaining in the country. The official refused to directly identify the location of the facility but when he was shown the blurred-out location on an online satellite-mapping service he joked, “The peshmerga do not have the influence to make Google blur an area on these maps. I will leave the rest to your conclusions.” Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: Famous Mortimer on July 11, 2014, 09:46:45 PM How mixed are the Kurdish areas in Turkey anyway?
Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: ingemann on July 12, 2014, 07:13:47 AM How mixed are the Kurdish areas in Turkey anyway? Very and there are also a large Kurdish minority outside the traditional Kurdish areas. Title: Re: Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years? Post by: dead0man on July 12, 2014, 06:41:19 PM Kurds seize two large oil fields, leave Iraqi govt (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28265064)
Quote Kurdish peshmerga forces are said to have seized control of production facilities at Bai Hassan and Kirkuk. Kurdish MPs withdrew from Iraq's central government, after Prime Minister Nouri Maliki accused the Kurds of harbouring extremists. <snip> Kurdish officials, including Kurdistan Region leader Massoud Barzani, say they view independence of areas under Kurdish control as their right. Tensions came to a head when Prime Minister Maliki said on Wednesday that the Kurdish provincial capital Irbil was a haven for Isis fighters. <snip> |