Talk Elections

Will Landrieu survive this time?

Cassidy will probably win. A runoff is all but assured to occur in December in Louisiana, and a likely decline in turnout in the runoff would likely damage a Democrat like Landrieu more than Cassidy. Combine that with the distinct Republican lean of this state, and Landrieu is going to have a lot of trouble hanging on to her seat. She still has a chance, but I feel that it is a small one at this point.

Cassidy, and it will be by more than we all expect.

This is the race I'm most unsure about out of all of them, but I'm tilting towards Landrieu because she does have two opportunities to win technically as opposed to Cassidy's one chance if he can get Landrieu to a runoff.

To Cassidy's advantage, most undecided's give both Obama and Landrieu very low approval ratings and will likely vote for Cassidy or Hollis which, combined with the fact that there's perennial Democrat on the ballot who might get 2% of Landrieu's vote, Landrieu will probably be sent to a runoff. In the runoff though, she's survived two runoffs before and I think she can definitely pull it off again.

Cassidy. Landrieu's luck has finally run out.

Cassidy. Or at least, the paths Landrieu took to victory in 1996, 2002, and 2008 are all closed and to win she will have to think of something completely new -- which looks doubtful.

Landrieu will win this race. Her bro Mitch has excellent approvals in New Orleans which her base African Americans may have no trouble GOTV.

In 2002, they still couldnt win the runoff with a popular prez. Nate Silver just predicted a 51-49 senate with Landrieu, Hagen and Begich winning.

As it is right now, I consider the race Leans Republican, but I can easily see it going the other way if Landrieu pulls a Thad Cochran.

Since the LA race will be heading to a runoff, a lot depends on how Senate composition looks on Wednesday morning.  It's a strong possibility that Louisiana is the 51st seat for Republicans (a 50-49 Republican edge being the case after Election Day, assuming no other runoffs) which, if that is the case, Landrieu will lose something like 45-55 in the runoff.

I hope she and Pryor do "pull a Thad Cochran" and somehow win their races, but it's a lot easier for moderate Republicans to build last minute Black support than it would be for moderate Democrats to create a last minute coalition including conservative Whites in 2014.  Nevertheless, I like the campaign Mary is running and I'm hoping we can somehow send her and Pryor back to the senate while still having a GOP majority.

If it goes to a runoff which determines control of the senate, the race moves to Likely Republican. I agree with you, in a perfect world Republicans take control of the senate while Landrieu and Pryor keep their seats.

Which, actually isn't that far removed of a scenario.  To do this the GOP would have to win SD, MT and WV as well as NC and AK with at least one win between CO, IA, MI, NH or VA.  That can certainly be done given the national environment, but Louisiana and Arkansas are likely to "come along for the ride" in the event of a good GOP year. 

I see Landrieu pulling a small victory, but right now it leads Cassidy.

Lol Obama won over 80% of the vote in New Orleans and still got crushed in Louisiana. Landrieu also has a approval rating under 40% statewide.

Link?

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will reportedly support Landrieu.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chamber-of-commerce-mary-landrieu

Going with Cassidy.

Haven't looked at this thread til now. Voted Landrieu.

I think this is the Republicans' most likely pickup, after SD, WV, & MT.

Cassidy because of the run-off, same for Georgia.

Landrieu. Missteps by Cassidy make it more likely she wins.

She already won a runoff and a higher percentage of Blks are located in her home base of New Orleans.

But I wouldnt put.it past the GOP, should the Senate go down to wire, to pull out stops to win here.

Bill Cassidy.

#Delusion

All the facts he cites are true.

Landrieu has already won a runoff. Two, in fact.

Blacks are steadily moving back to the New Orleans area.

Either candidate can still make missteps and both parties will be in all-hands-on-deck mode in a runoff scenario.

In a 50-49 scenario, in which Hagen and Begich have won already, she wins.

In a 49-50 scenario, Hagen already lost, she probably loses.

But, dont underestimate blk turnout by Mitch in N.O.

Is it really necessarily to "abbreviate" the word "black," OC?

What is you guys' fascination with Southern Democrats defeating a Republican challenger while both claiming to be Republicans?

I don't always support Blue Dogs over Republicans, but in this instance it simply boils down to the quality of the candidates involved.

The South needs good representation in the Senate, and Landrieu and Pryor have both represented their states very well there.

Landrieu has fought for Louisiana tooth-and-nail over her entire tenure and she's built up enough seniority (unlike Kay Hagan) to bring significant clout to her state's delegation.  Cassidy isn't necessarily that bad of a candidate, but he will be unable to provide for Louisiana like Mary has (especially if you consider that, if elected, he's likely going to be the Pelican State's senior senator in less than one year).  Having a strong Louisiana delegation headed by Landrieu is good for Mississippi, as both Cochran's and Landrieu's clout combine to elevate interests pertaining to the Gulf Coast's environment and economy.   

As for Arkansas, it really is a case of Tom Cotton being that bad of a candidate.  Anyone who voted against this year's Farm Bill should be voted out of Congress, but especially someone from a state like Arkansas with both a large agricultural sector and many food stamp recipients.  Pryor, while not as visible in his position as Landrieu, has done a good job for Arkansas and I'm hoping that constituents are able to recognize that before heading to the polls instead of just voting based on Tea Party talking points.

So "Rockefeller" GOP, you are a moderate republican whom would vote for any Republican because they have an R in front of their name. Maybe you should change your name from Rockefeller GOP to something more appropriate.

No, I'm not.  In fact, in another thread in this section I said I'd vote for Andrew Cuomo over Rand Paul.  I'd vote for a LOT of Democrats over someone like Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee.  My issue with this scenario is more about Southern politics, where I feel the main difference between the candidates is often economics based, as many Southern Democrats tend to be moderate to conservative on social issues to appease their electorates.  As someone who is fairly socially liberal and fairly fiscally conservative, I can't imagine many scenarios where I'd support a Southern Democrat (often socially moderate/conservative and fiscally moderate/populist) over a Southern Republican (often conservative on both, agreeing with me at least on the fiscal issues).  Your average old school Southern Democrat is almost my political opposite in many cases.

As for Del's response, fair enough.  That was a well reasoned post, and I can certainly see how your support would wind up that way from your local perspective.

With this new story about Landrieu's residency issue in Louisiana and Washington, D.C., she may be in more vulnerable this November.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/landrieu-claims-parents-home-as-her-own-raising-questions-of-louisiana-residency/2014/08/28/423d8552-2e08-11e4-9b98-848790384093_story.html