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Title: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: JRP1994 on August 28, 2014, 05:40:22 AM • No special election in OK
• Mike Johanns runs in NE • Max Baucus runs in MT • Tim Johnson runs in SD • Jay Rockefeller runs in WV • Carl Levin runs in MI • Tom Harkin runs in IA • Saxby Chambliss runs in GA Thoughts? Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Senator Cris on August 28, 2014, 06:22:59 AM - NE --> Safe R
- MT --> Toss-Up - SD --> Lean R - WV --> Toss-Up/Tilt R - MI --> Solid D - IA --> Likely D - GA --> Lean R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 28, 2014, 07:52:44 AM NE - Safe R
MT - Toss-Up/Tilt D SD - Toss-Up/Tilt R WV - Toss-Up/Tilt D MI - Solid D IA - Solid D GA - This one is tricky, because Chambliss would have received a primary challenge from somebody. If he had been defeated by a tea partier, Lean D. If he had been defeated by a moderate, Lean R. If he survived his primary, Likely R. Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Never on August 28, 2014, 08:16:18 AM NE - Safe R
MT - Tilt D SD - Tilt R WV - Tossup MI - Solid D IA - Likely D GA - Likely R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Miles on August 28, 2014, 08:26:10 AM - NE --> Safe R - MT --> Toss-Up - SD --> Lean R - WV --> Toss-Up/Tilt R - MI --> Solid D - IA --> Likely D - GA --> Lean R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: IceSpear on August 28, 2014, 10:19:41 AM NE: Safe R
MT: Lean R (Wasn't Baucus' approval rating in the toilet?) SD: Toss Up/Tilt R WV: Toss Up/Tilt R MI: Safe D IA: Likely D GA: Likely R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: SWE on August 28, 2014, 10:46:43 AM NE: Safe R MT: Lean R (Wasn't Baucus' approval rating in the toilet?) SD: Toss Up/Tilt R WV: Toss Up/Tilt R MI: Safe D IA: Likely D GA: Likely R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Del Tachi on August 28, 2014, 11:06:38 AM NE - Safe R
MT - Toss-Up/Tilt D SD - Toss-Up/Tilt R WV - Lean D MI - Solid D IA - Solid D GA - Lean R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Brittain33 on August 28, 2014, 11:38:26 AM I think MT would have been Lean D. Montana voters are pretty elastic and he's survived before.
Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Niemeyerite on August 28, 2014, 12:16:56 PM NE - Safe R MT - Toss-Up/Tilt D SD - Toss-Up/Tilt R WV - Lean D MI - Solid D IA - Solid D GA - Lean R Switch MT and SD and that's what I think. Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Indy Texas on August 28, 2014, 09:05:49 PM • No special election in OK • Mike Johanns runs in NE • Max Baucus runs in MT • Tim Johnson runs in SD • Jay Rockefeller runs in WV • Carl Levin runs in MI • Tom Harkin runs in IA • Saxby Chambliss runs in GA Thoughts? NE: no change; still safe R MT: D favored SD: Johnson would be another hanging-on-for-dear-life Democrat like Pryor/Landrieu/Hagan; Toss-Up WV: Capito likely wouldn't have run if it wasn't an open seat; Rockefeller would pretty easily win; D Favored against Generic West Virginia Republican MI: D favored IA: D favored GA: Safe R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: KCDem on August 28, 2014, 10:10:19 PM NE - Safe R
MT - Tossup SD - Tossup WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running) MI - Solid D IA - Solid D GA - Likely R Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: GaussLaw on August 28, 2014, 10:24:31 PM WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running) Capito announced before Jay retired, IIRC. Jay was very vulnerable in early polling. Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: KCDem on August 28, 2014, 10:28:40 PM WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running) Capito announced before Jay retired, IIRC. Jay was very vulnerable in early polling. She announced right after he announced his retirement. If Rockefeller hadn't retired, and there hadn't been the impression of him wanting to retire (coal speech, etc), she wouldn't have ran. Capito is a cautious politician and wouldn't have wanted to enter a chancy race. Lean D because we don't know if McKinley would have given it a shot. Title: Re: What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year? Post by: Never on August 28, 2014, 10:36:19 PM WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running) Capito announced before Jay retired, IIRC. Jay was very vulnerable in early polling. She announced right after he announced his retirement. If Rockefeller hadn't retired, and there hadn't been the impression of him wanting to retire (coal speech, etc), she wouldn't have ran. Capito is a cautious politician and wouldn't have wanted to enter a chancy race. Lean D because we don't know if McKinley would have given it a shot. Capito started running well before Rockefeller retired. Shelly Moore Capito announced her candidacy on November 26, 2012 (http://ballotpedia.org/Shelley_Moore_Capito). Senator Rockefeller didn't announce his retirement until January 11, 2013 (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/jay-rockefeller-to-retire-86054.html). |