Talk Elections

Absentee ballots are already being sent out in NC, PA and GA:

http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar

Prof. McDonald tracks the returned ones:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oCBdr7Mu_PzF454sbZDmIpYMlehTzISDLNxeJKOTGtA/edit?pli=1#gid=0

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

Total number of absentee ballots requested so far in Iowa:

121,812 (52.1% D, 27.2% R, 20.8% I)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

2010 total:

349,216 (43.7% D, 38.0% R, 18.3% I)

http://www.electproject.org/2010_early_vote

It wasn't mentioned in the article, but in-person early voting in Iowa starts tomorrow.

Good news!

FS

FL absentee ballots requested 2014: 2,250,414 (42% GOP, 39% DEM)

FL absentee ballots requested 2010: 2,172,599 (49% GOP, 36% DEM)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

LOL @ da Florida Democratic Party...

Luckily the Dems are doing much better even if they're still behind. Let's not forget the criminal only won by 1% in 2010.

The Dem. lead in IA absentee requests is now down to 9%:

44.8% DEM
35.4% GOP
19.8% IND

The final 2010 Dem-margin (which was a bad year for Dems) was 5.7%

2012 was D+11 (requested) and D+10 (returned), when Obama won Iowa.

2008 was D+18 (when Obama won IA big).

It would be good if the Dems could hold at least an 8% advantage this year.

At first I thought I understood, but then I realized I didn't. Not sure if the charts are formatted properly for GA...can anyone explain to me what all of this "w/2010 vote", "w/o 2010 vote" and other categories even mean? I can't make sense of all of these numbers for my state...

It's a breakdown of people who requested absentees so far this year and if they voted in 2010 or not.

The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.

The spread among returned ones is meaningless, because they lag behind the "requested" numbers.

The Dem. spread among the "requested" is now down to just 8% ...

It looks like it's about 10% now.

Democrats advantage over GOP in the early vote in different states at the moment:

Requested:

Maine: +17.2%
Iowa: +8%
Arkansas: +3.5%
North Carolina: +0.6%

Florida: R +3.1%

Returned:

Maine: +14.4%
Iowa: +9.8%
North Carolina: +6.6%

Florida: R +14.4%


Looking really bad in Florida. :( But great in Maine! Maybe Bellows has a chance after all. :P

That's not how it works. If Republicans lead absentee voting by less than double digits in Florida, they're in deep sh*t.

Eric, it's actually very good news for Florida Dems.

See here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198822.msg4327229#msg4327229

In 2010, when Scott won by 1%, Republicans had a 13% edge in requested ballots.

Now, Republicans only have a 3% edge ...

The returned ballots are lagging way behind because most people wait until the last week before election day to return the ballots in case there is something important happening in the last weeks.

ME, AR and NC are meaningless because of the small number of requested ballots so far.

Yup. Checkpoint Charlie's got this. The criminal better get ready for his new residence:

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The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.

...bugger.

That's irrelevant since Democrats are banking unlikely voters early while Republicans bank their feeble and senile base.

Meanwhile in Iowa:

Democrats take back the lead in new daily absentee requests from Republicans:

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https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/524196155052556288

Also, more people in IA have now requested absentees than in all of 2010, and there are still 2 weeks to go.

Democrats have a 33-vote lead in returned absentee votes. This is probably (https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/524185486487990272) the last day they lead in the absentee vote.

In NC, yeah.

But in NC there's hardly anything returned yet.

The good news for Democrats is that, while they've returned about 50% more absentee ballots than this time in 2010, Republicans are slightly below (http://www.politicsnc.com/in-mail-in-ballots-gop-gaining-but-underperforming-2010-returns/) where they were four years ago.


Ah, yeah. I forgot to specify NC!

This is all so meaningless at this stage.

There are now just 15.000 ballots returned in NC and just 70.000 requested.

The 2010 vote was 2.7 million, which means only 0.5% of the vote is returned right now and only 2.5% requested.

In IA, a lot more is already in and requested.

Tells us more.

Unsatisfactory numbers out of North Carolina, but impressive numbers in Iowa

Colorado ballot count for 11/20:

Total votes cast: 79,355

Republicans: 36,830 (46%)

Democrats: 24,648 (31%)

Unaffiliated: 17,191 (21%)

Here are the numbers for two crucial suburban Denver swing counties, both of which generally mirror statewide turnout (as you can see):

Jefferson County

Republicans: 5961 (43%)

Democrats: 4352 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 3394 (25%)


Arapahoe County

Republicans: 4877 (45%)

Democrats: 3521 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 2378 (22%)

Enjoy.

Awesome news out of Colorado and North Carolina, and we are still close in Iowa considering Democrats always destroy Republicans in early voting.

#RidingtheWave

What are the numbers for El Paso, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, and Pueblo counties?

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Of course, but at least we are off to a good start...

How many times do the Republicans need to be dominated by the Democrats in early voting before they learn ? I hope the GOP finally improved their get out the vote effort, because the Democrats are outstanding at it.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?

Show me a recent reputable poll of Colorado that wasn't a Democratic "internal"?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2096

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/15/politics/colorado-senate-poll/index.html

http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26719752/colorado-senate-close-race-momentum-favors-gardner-poll

None of those are reputable...any others?

Backtored, he's a troll.

El Paso County (Colorado Springs, heavily GOP, heavily populated)

Republicans: 7565 (55%)
Democrats: 2956 (22%)
Unaffiliated: 2906 (21%)

Douglas County (suburban Denver, heavily Republican)

Republicans: 5773 (60%)
Democrats: 1917 (20%)
Unaffiliated: 1818 (19%)

Denver County (urban, heavily Democratic, heavily populated)

Republicans: 465 (21%)
Democrats: 1249 (56%)
Unaffiliated: 488 (22%)

Boulder County (college town, heavily Democratic)

Republicans: 1176 (28%)
Democrats: 1856 (45%)
Unaffiliated: 1054 (25%)

Pueblo County (large Latino population, heavily Democratic--but a lot of socially conservative Democrats)

Republicans: 1851 (29%)
Democrats: 3245 (51%)
Unaffiliated: 1163 (18%)

Says the junk polling organization? ::)

Hoping the GOP made huge impressions on the unaffiliated voters.

Good to see Democrats sweeping the board in early voting! #DemWave

Other than that it's all junk polling.

I agree, all the public polling has been junk. Good thing we have Benenson Strategy Group to tell us where the race stands :D

How does El Paso County turn out more Democrats than all of Denver combined?

Because hardly anything has come in from Denver :P  These numbers mean very little right now.

Nah.

Some updated Georgia numbers. I've downloaded the huge absentee list to assess the count of all ballots cast and requested up through Monday (10/20), and also sorted it to show how many of those ballots have been cast and returned. In addition to this, I'm using the public voter file I have access to in order to break down early voters (through Sunday; doesn't include today's voters) by "party" (which is assessed from party primary voting records).

As of 10/20:

Ballot Status
All Ballots Cast/Requested: 241,920
Ballots Cast/Returned: 185,387

As of 10/19 (First Week + Sunday):

Historic Public Voter File Data (Based on Primary Voting History)
All Ballots Cast/Returned: 156,106

Republican 43.1%
Democrat 39.5%
Independent 6.1%
No Data 12.3%

(It should be noted that public voter file data/primary voting history skews Republican these days, due to a near-supermajority of Georgians living in Republican-dominant counties, so the numbers are quite possibly even better than they'd appear.

Are those numbers good or bad for Nunn?

Hard to say considering that I've never done this sort of comparison before. I did just do some sketchy math that attempts to take into account what I know about Georgia's primary dynamics (which is practically everywhere, although to a greater degree of skewing in some areas).

I started out by assessing areas where one party is the dominant force/primary is equivalent to election, which gives you 63% R / 37% D in terms of percentage of population that lives in an area where that party's primary is more influential. I then took what I know about the open primary voting habits of people from the opposite party in such circumstances and tried to reverse engineer numbers to put people where they actually belong. After all of that, I got this:

Democratic: 41.1%
Republican: 37.5%
Independent: 9.1%
No Data: 11.3%

A non-competitive race for Ohio Governor this year as opposed to 2010 as well as the U.S. Supreme Court siding with the Ohio GOP on cutting a week of our early voting led to a decrease in the # of absentee ballots requested from 2010. Early voting applications were sent to 6 million voters in Ohio with about 750,000 Ohioans requesting or casting an absentee ballot. (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2014/10/cuyahoga_county_leads_state_in_1.html)

The absentee ballots were sent out with federal money, but once Ohio runs out of the money, then it will be the job of the state legislature to appropriate new state funding for sending them out and Secretary of Suppression State Jon Husted will only send them if he chooses to. Obviously, when that time comes, that won't run smoothly.

Early voting requests is also taking a big toll out of Cuyahoga County, the most populous and one of the most Democratic counties in the state. Despite the fact that the leading Democrat, Ed FitzGerald is from here, there's 60,000 less absentee ballots requested this year than in 2010; with only 130,000 requested from our county this year. There's just a huge lack of Democratic enthusiasm that will result in low turnout among many women and minorities.

For the whole state of Ohio, early voting requests are relatively the same as 2010, but there's a -2 shift for absentee requests by Democratic voters and a +1 shift by Republican voters: (http://www.cleveland.com/cuyahoga-county/index.ssf/2014/10/will_this_election_be_a_dud_cuyahoga_county_early_voting_requests_are_down_one-third_compared_to_201.html#incart_river)

2014: Democrats - 55%, Republicans - 25%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 19%
2010: Democrats - 57%, Republicans - 24%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 20%

The numbers in key counties like Franklin paint a far bleaker picture :(

Ralston: GOP has been leading early vote for 2 days in Clark. If this trend continues he doesn't see how any D statewide candidates survive. (http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/early-voting-blog-updated-every-day-numbers-and-analysis)

Democrats now pulling away in new absentee requests in Iowa:

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Overall (365.000 requests) it's now D+4 again, a few days ago it was D+2 ...

Turnout for first day of early voting in Dem-leaning Palm Beach County up 32.5% over 2010 (http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2014/10/20/turnout-for-first-day-of-early-voting-in-dem-leaning-palm-beach-county-up-32-5-over-2010/?__federated=1)

This is Clark County Nevada, right? So this means what, that NV-4 could be in play? Seems like a stretch.

Yes, he says NV-4 could be in play.

http://dd.aoshq.com/iowa-ballot-returns/

What is this?

The Iowa absentee ballot returns so far.

Here's the report for the first day of LA early voting. (http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2014_1104_StatewideStats.pdf) I know its super early, but, blacks were at 31% of the ballots cast, which would be good for Landrieu if it holds.

FWIW, Karl Rove just bought $820K in tv ads there.

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/21/conservative-group-horsford-buys-k-ads/17687641/

With more than 400.000 absentee ballots now requested, the Dems had another good day yesterday and stretch their lead to almost 5% again.

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More than 300.000 votes in CO in so far.

R: 44%
D: 32%

R+12

Roughly 1/7th of the vote is now in.

In 2010, when Bennet won by 2, the final early vote was R+6. But that was with 1.2 Mio. early votes.

Link?

In a first, Republicans claim early vote lead in Iowa (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/in-a-first-republicans-claim-early-vote-lead-in-iowa/article/2555159)
Washington Examiner/David M. Drucker

Ralston says the Republinami continues building in Clark, Washoe. (http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/early-voting-blog-updated-every-day-numbers-and-analysis)

Does it really matter though? At worst Horsford goes down, and we take it back with ease in 2016.

Ross Miller is basically the Democrat's only rising star in Nevada. It would suck if he lost the AG's race. Republicans will also easily pick up the state senate now and possibly the assembly.

Sweeping all statewide posts, perhaps the Senate and losing Ross Miller? I'd call that a BFD.

Ah right, I forgot the statewide candidates were up in NV this year. I assume Reid's Lt. Gov pick is already sunk then?

The links are on top of the 1st page.

Georgia:

I kinda wish they wouldn't release this information, means there could be less surprises election day.

More NV # from Ralston.  (http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/early-voting-blog-updated-every-day-numbers-and-analysis)

What's your source for those numbers?

Michael McDonald has them (as of today) at 62.9% white, 27.9% black and 8% new registration/unknown race, which would be pretty decent numbers for the Dems. Yours look much worse - as if unknown race EVs are distributed heavily toward whites and 'other'.

Numbers appear to be moving in Dems' direction, relatively speaking.

Through 10/22:

Ballot Status
All Ballots Cast/Requested: 348,768*
All Ballots Cast/Returned: 281,185

Republican: 42.1% (-0.4)
Democrat: 39.1% (-1.0)
Independent: 5.7% (-0.4)
No Data: 13.1% (+1.8)

* Through 10/23

---

Racial breakdowns are also moving favorably:

Through 10/22:

Total Votes Cast: 281,185

Whites: 66.3% (down from 66.7% on Tuesday)
Blacks: 28.6% (up from 28.3% on Tuesday)
Other: 4.2% (up from 4.0% on Tuesday)
Latino: 0.5% (same as Tuesday)
Asian: 0.5% (same as Tuesday)

And to put it into perspective, here are the figures for early voting for 2010:

Total Votes Cast: 678,939

Whites: 66.5%
Blacks: 29.0%
Other: 3.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Latino: 0.4%


It's coming from a public voter file system that I have access to, which uses SoS information. I need to track down SoS' exact file so see why there's such a big discrepancy. Perhaps he's counting ABMs that haven't been returned (which my race breakdowns don't), but I wouldn't think there's that big of a racial difference between those that have been returned and those that haven't to cause such an effect.

Almost 100K votes cast in LA. Racially, its been pretty steady since the first day, at 67% white, 31% black. The partisan split is 53D 34R 13I.

The first day on NC in-person early voting was yesterday. This is from roguemapper at RRH:

Not bad, but only 4.5% of the total 2010-vote.

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

PNA has a new study out today which suggests that this CO election might in the end resemble more a Presidential election and not a mid-term election. Which means something like 2-2.5 Mio. votes, and not 1.8 Mio. like in 2010.

Vote by mail and same day registration plays a major role, according to their study.

More than 80% of the active registered voters in CO (2.9 Mio. alltogether) say that they have received their ballot in the mail and once again more than 80% say that they will send it in. That alone would mean ca. 2 Mio. voters alltogether, not incl. those who will vote and/or register to vote on election day.

These "Presidential surge" voters indicate voting for Udall and Hick by a double-digit margin.

The study further assumes that current polls use a too strict likely voter screen, excluding most of these "surge voters".

Currently, 100.000 CO voters send in their ballot each day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/are-colorado-polls-underestimating-democratic-turnout-n232666

Here's a good page to bookmark for NC. (http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/)

Its breaks down the early vote by party, county, district, etc.

That is absurd.

Yes, Democrats will likely narrow the margins. But there is only so much narrowing you can do as returned ballots accumulate.

NC update: (http://nc-politics.blogspot.com/2014/10/2nd-day-of-2014-nc-in-person-early.html) About 3/4 as many votes this year have been cast compared to this time in 2010. Keep in mind yesterday was only the second day of early voting while it was the eighth day in 2010.

Also, turnout with Independents seems to be improving the most vis-a-vis 2010:

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Considering your past analysis... and how much has been thrown in your face recently, probably better that you not be soooo declarative.

Ralston's update for today.  (http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/early-voting-blog-updated-every-day-numbers-and-analysis)He said on Twitter that with this pattern, Pubs win LG first, AG would flip next, then NV-4 and finally Assembly.  (https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/526068372795293696)

Good blog with updates on NC early voting (http://nc-politics.blogspot.com/)

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Democrats continue to chip away at Republican's lead in Florida. (http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/10/175m-fl-ballots-already-cast-gop-lead-strong-but-slightly-slipping-to-dems.html)

GOP led by 9.6 Friday morning, 9.2 Saturday morning, and are down to 8.4 this morning. Dems should get another boost today with "Souls to the Polls" voting.

In LA, more than 150K early votes were cast as of yesterday; thats not quite half of the 2012 total, but its already twice as many as 2010's total. 'Pretty steady at 66% White 32% Black.

NV: Dems won Clark yesterday by 42 votes out of over 12k cast. (https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/526398811078664192) Pubs still hold a net lead there.

Wonderful news! The criminal must be terrified.

Ralston: Pubs won Washoe 892-610, Clark 4285-4117 yesterday.  (https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/526576208595529729)

IOWA update:

D, R, I all had a big jump in absentee requests over the weekend, but the Dems had the most (like in the previous days).

That means out of 460.000 requests, the Ds now have ca. a 5% advantage over the Rs.

That is important, because the 460.000 requests are already ca. 40% of the expected overall turnout.

That means Republicans will need a good election day showing to make it a tie overall.

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Colorado Republicans still crushing it.

Colorado turnout update for 10/27.  About a third of all expected votes have been received.

Total votes: 660,113
Republicans: 282,317 (43%)
Democrats: 213,975 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 156,893 (24%)

Here are some key county numbers:
Jefferson: 41% R, 32% D, 26% U
Arapahoe: 44% R, 32% D, 23% U
Larimer: 43% R, 30% D, 26% U

Denver and Boulder counties are now up to speed with reporting, so there are no longer large numbers of uncounted ballots out in those counties relative to the rest of the state.

If the Dems continue to cut into the R-margin by 1% each day now for the next 8 days, I'm happy with that.

Let's see how this develops ...

If it's R+5 or R+6 or R+7 next Tuesday with the final update, it could still be close.

If it's R+3, Gardner likely loses.

R+7 or more should be good news for Gardner.

Notice that the Democrats haven't taken anything from the margin.  It is unaffiliated voters who have started to turn their ballots in, but the Democrats have been stuck at 31-32 percent for more than a week.  I doubt they'll get much better than that, although the GOP's numbers will probably reach down to 38 or 39 percent as more unaffiliated voters vote.

The GOP has lost about two points over the last week.  That is only a point every few days, which would put the final turnout at R+8 or R+9--a serious disaster for Democrats.  Statistically, I think it's highly unlikely that Democrats will gain a point every day for the next week.  If Democratic GOTV suddenly goes into turbo-drive, yes, it is hypothetically possible.  But it is very unlikely.

I would guess that final turnout is somewhere between R+5 and R+8.  I still think that a 2010 turnout would allow the GOP beat both Hickenlooper and Udall, and my estimate would do that.  We'll see, though.  A majority of ballots have still yet to be returned, although so far it is amazingly good for the GOP.

I don't have numbers from previous years to compare, but early voting numbers look good for Republicans in Kansas.

So far, about 92,000 have voted early in Kansas. Of those, 53% were Republican, 32% were Democrat, and just 14.6% were Independent. A good chunk (1/3) of early voters are coming from the Wichita area.

Georgia, ballots cast:

(Figures with "(^)" next to them indicate group as a % of early voters is consistently increasing)
(All 2014 early voting totals are through Sunday, 10/26; 2010 totals are for entire early vote period)

Georgia is looking quite good for Democrats so far. There has been an seven-point swing thus far in early voting turnout by likely party when compared to 2010 (!!), with it being likely that the number will continue to improve for Democrats over the remainder of this week, if historical trends are any indicator. The number of unknown affiliated being slightly higher is potentially an indicator that there are more first-time voters voting early.

By race, blacks are two percentage points more of the electorate than they were in 2010, and that number will also continue to increase. In 2010, blacks were 29% of EVs and the final number was 28%, suggesting that the total black share of the electorate in 2014 could very well be 30-31%.

The female percentage of the vote is still a bit below 2010 numbers but steadily increasing, and is on track to meet or surpass 2010 numbers. The current breakdowns by age when compared to 2010 are the least optimistic, but thankfully in Georgia (at least in this case), voting preference by age is relatively uniform across the board.

With today being the last day, about 189K early votes were cast in LA.

The bad news for Landrieu: Thats only about 53% of the total early votes in 2012.

The good news for Landrieu: The racial composition still very similar to 2012. In 2010, for example, the black share dropped to 24%; it was 33% in 2012 and currently stands at 32%.

Another good sign is that women are outvoting men 55/45.

I'm no Pollyanna, but Republican turnout may be an irrelevant measure. If Orman and Davis win, it will be with large numbers of registered Republicans.

NV: GOP has a nearly 2k lead in Clark, no Washoe # yet. (http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/early-voting-blog-updated-every-day-numbers-and-analysis) Curious to see if this is enough to negate crossover in the AG race.

Absentee voting is up 33% in MI compared to 2010.

http://www.wlns.com/story/27053222/skubick-absentee-voters-up-33-percent#.VE-XypBfPdo.facebook

Colorado Republicans maintain strong turnout advantage. 

Colorado 10/28 update.

Total ballots: 777,820 (this is somewhere between 35 and 40 percent of this year's electorate)

Republicans: 331,723 (43%)
Democrats: 250,841 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 195,047 (25%)

Here are some key county numbers:

Adams County (northern Denver suburbs, leans Democratic)

Republicans: 34%
Democrats: 38%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Jefferson County (western Denver suburbs, major swing county)

Republicans: 40%
Democrats: 32%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Arapahoe County (southern and eastern Denver suburbs, major swing county)

Republicans: 43%
Democrats: 33%
Unaffiliated: 24%

Larimer County (northern Colorado, Ft. Collins, rural, key swing county)

Republicans: 43%
Democrats: 30%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Here is an analysis of yesterday's ballot return report:

http://completecolorado.com/pagetwo/2014/10/27/2014-midterm-all-mail-voting-spikes-early-turnout-compared-to-2010/

If you're keeping track, yes, today is looking even better for the GOP than yesterday.  Absolutely amazing numbers so far.

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

Well, stupid question of mine really because CO has same-day registration - so of course you can vote on election day too ... :P

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the same, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

Well, I honestly don't know. This is all new. I think you probably have to go to the clerk's office because they should be the only ones who can issue ballots. You can register on Election Day even online, but unless the clerk sets up little offices at drop sites, how could they issue ballots? This whole thing is so odd.

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

These laws are not awful, but in the case of the US (which does not have a central population registry) just a little bit error-prone and maybe not really that thought-through.

But at least they guarantee some 100% coverage, meaning that every citizen who wants to vote also gets a chance to vote and not just those who are registered weeks in advance.

Virtually every country in Europe uses this 100%-system, only the Anglo-countries exclude quite a few people from registration, with the US being the worst example (50 million unregistered voters, who would actually be eligible to vote).

The CO-law should of course be checked and made more fail-safe. A good way to do so would be to look at voting systems in European countries that have a history of working well, no voter fraud, 100% coverage and high turnout and copy them. The Austrian and Swedish models would not be all too bad.

Yes the Republicans will likely declare war on minority and poor voting rights if they win.

It's insane that there are people like you who are outraged at laws making voting as easy as possible.

I am all for ease of access to vote, however, I draw the line at same-day registration. There's very little controls to stop a person from crossing state lines and registering same day.

Voting is a right, but my rights are infringed if those that are not qualified to vote are not properly vetted. There's a reason most states have a cutoff prior to the election.

There could be a requirement that you can only register on election day by providing proof of in-state residency for at least 1 month before election day. The question is just how this should be enforced (once again due to the lack of a population register).

Connecticut, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Washington DC all have same day voter registration. There has never been an issue. California will start allowing same day voter registration next year.

Doing all mail voting is interesting.

So essentially we have a good idea on how a race is looking by looking at the numbers come in each day? And we will find out the results right when polls close?

Probably, and yes

I live overseas now so I was able to fax in my ballot. You could also email them your ballot. Gotta love these new laws.

I will say that a lot of people don't know what the hell is going on. I know this is anecdotal but my mother (who is generally fairly politically savvy, at least compared to most people) wasn't aware that you couldn't "vote" on election day like usual.

These numbers give you a fairly good idea, but not an exact picture - they don't tell you how many gardner democrats/udall republicans there are, and don't tell you how independents voted.

As far as reporting on election night goes, it's not like there's going to be 100% of the vote in 10 minutes after poll closing or something ridiculous like that, but the reporting speed should be pretty fast. For what it's worth, Oregon had all mail balloting in 2012 and had about 40% of the vote in just 15 minutes after poll closing.

Of course if Colorado is anything like Washington in its all vote-by-mail ballot counting, we'll be at like 75% of the vote counted on Wednesday morning.

Nevada: Widening GOP lead in Clark and Washoe, ditto Senate battlegrounds. (http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/early-voting-blog-updated-every-day-numbers-and-analysis)

Louisiana: (http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2014_1104_StatewideStats.pdf) With early voting finished, 236K votes were cast. Thats double the voters that were cast early in 2010, 80% 2008 and about 2/3 of 2012.

The overall race total was 64.6% white 32.8% black. The partisan split was 52.5 D 34 R 13.5 I.

How do the stats by race compare to 4 years ago in early voting?

I guess it was only a matter of time before emailing you ballot.  I'm almost surprised that they wouldn't let you Tweet it.

^ Going with my LA stats:

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Colorado as of today:

Republicans: 41.9%
Democrats: 32.5%
Unaffiliated: 24.5%

Looks like Democrats finally have some momentum!

Colorado 10/29 update.

Nearly 50% of the expected electorate has already voted.

Total votes: 905,500

Republicans: 379,250 (42%)
Democrats: 294,648 (33%)
Unaffiliated: 222,043 (25%)

Democrats now trail Republicans by 9.3 percentage points, which is better for them than yesterday, but still a poor showing overall.

CO Trend:

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Souls to the polls. 53% of everyone who voted early in Georgia on Sunday were black. 40% were white.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/data-from-sunday-points-to-black-churches-role-in-mobilizing-voters.html?rref=upshot&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0

I just posted an update on GA, but the voter file just updated on my end with Tuesday's totals, so here's another summarized version:

The MDP rolled out an initiative to turn out normally unlikely voters by really pushing absentee voting this year. So far, the results look promising!

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/29/snyder-schauer-virtual-tie/18132579/

Colorado Republicans maintain strong lead.

Colorado update 10/30: 50 to 60 percent of expected electorate has voted

Total ballots: 1,038,023

Republicans: 431,711 (41.6%) (2010: 39.5%)
Democrats: 336,908 (32.4%) (2010: 33.6%)
Unaffiliated: 269,404 (26%) (2010: 26.9%)

My thoughts:

In 2010 Republicans had a roughly six-point advantage, and in 2012 that advantage was only two points.  I don’t expect the nine-point lead to hold, but I have to think that even an electorate similar to 2010 would be a disaster for Democrats.

I’ll point out that right now the state’s three Democratic congressional districts are actually outperforming their 2010 totals, which means that the Democratic GOTV is obviously at work.  Colorado’s four GOP congressional districts are all either performing at or below 2010 levels relative to the electorate this year as a whole.  And still Republicans are leading by nine.  In other words, I doubt that Democrats will be able to run up totals in Boulder (CD-2) and Denver (CD-1) any more than they already are. 

Right now Republicans have a larger vote advantage over Democrats than they did at the end of the 2010 election. Republicans are voting at a roughly 9% higher rate than Democrats right now, and they have been at or around that level for nearly the entire voting period.  I am beginning to wonder if this is simply what the electorate will be this year.  I expect the GOP’s nine-point lead to diminish somewhat, but Republicans are simply voting at such numbers that Democrats appear unable to catch them and bring margins down significantly.  Democrats won’t really have Election Day to rack up big totals, either, since this election is all-mail balloting.  Same-day voter registration may enable Democrats to hit college campuses with new registrations, but an extra 10,000 votes will only drop the margins about .5% relative to the whole electorate. 

By the way, I’ll just point out that I am not even certain that we’ll reach 2 million votes this year, which is what most estimates have been.  The 2010 election had 1.8 million and 2012 had 2.5 million, and I suspect we’ll get somewhere between 1.8 and 2.0 million. 

Here is a great layout of the vote so far:
http://www.magellanstrategies.com/#!colorado-2014-vote-returns/c118p

Democrats are running out of time if these returns are to be believed.

It is data from the secretary of state's office.

Just curious: Why do you believe having an electorate similar to 2010 would be such a "disaster" for Dems? Considering they won both the Gov and Senate races that year (albeit not by much)? Before we discuss how much independents are voting Republican out of frustration with Obama, lest we forget that dynamic was very much in play in 2010 too. Frankly, though Obama's hardly popular now, I don't believe it's equal to, let alone exceeds, the national intensity of 2010.

This'll be a good GOP year nationally, and probably in CO, but I don't see why Democrats would be doomed as long as they at least get close to 2010 turnout.

Georgia, through Wednesday:

Because Cory Gardner is a great candidate and the GOP basically had no candidate running against Hick. Otherwise the GOP had a wonderful year in Colorado. With strength at the top of this year's ticket, why wouldn't the GOP be able to do just as well with a similar electorate? Gardner and Beauprez would be incumbents today if they had run four years ago.

Question for CO-posters:

When you receive your mail ballot, does the envelope or the info card inside show the addresses of the "vote centers" in the county the recipient is living in ?

Or do people who want to vote on election day (rather than mailing it in earlier) have to look up the centers online ?

In Austria, when I receive my election info card, the address of the voting center is printed on it.

Just curious ...

It lists the drop-off locations for the county. I honestly doubt that people even realize that you can trade in your ballot and vote in-person. I expect only a small sliver if the electorate to do that, although you'll get quite a few who wait until Tuesday to drop their ballot off.

Isn't that printed on the envelope or the info sheet inside ? At least it is here, because I have voted absentee several times.

There's about 2 or 3 pages of info you get with your absentee ballot about what you have to do and what you can do with it, incl. the fact that you can personally bring it to the polling station on election day. (not a lot of people do that here, but I guess the number is bigger in CO where all people are mailed ballots before, whereas in Austria only 10% of the people vote absentee).

Democrats now up to about a 7,000 absentee ballot returned lead in Iowa. (http://www.bleedingheartland.com/diary/7218/latest-iowa-absentee-ballot-numbers-as-of-october-29)

Not great, but at least better than it was last week.

And the Republican lead in Florida continues to drop, down to 5.9% today from 6.4% yesterday. (http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/10/almost-24m-in-fl-have-voted-gop-lead-holding-but-margin-rate-still-sliding.html)

It's happening...the criminal will soon be gone... :'( (tears of joy).

NC update: (http://www.politicsnc.com/early-vote-continues-to-outpace-2010/)

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Wow... those NC stats look impressive.

What is going on?

Colorado 10/30 update #2

Here are some even newer numbers for today.  It kind of clashes with the earlier data that I posted, but this is apparently something that Byron York obtained from the secretary of state’s office.  We'll get something a little more official from Gessler's office at around 9:00 AM MTN.

Republicans: 443,240
Democrats: 337,897
Unaffiliated: 259,947

I don’t know how that breaks down statistically, but that is an extra 10,000 votes for the GOP over the Democrats from earlier today.  Colorado Peak Politics is saying that the GOP now has a more than 10-point lead again over the Democrats.

Absolutely amazing.

Have a look here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

wow!! Great news.

The math has turnout as follows:

Republicans: 443,240 (41.5%)
Democrats:  337,807 (32.4%)
Independent: 259.947 (24.9%)

Other is about 1.1%

That's just over 1,000,000 votes.
There were just over 1,770,000 votes in the Senate race and 1,821,028 votes cast in 2010. (59% of 2010 numbers).

Assuming similar turnout to 2010, in order to get to R+6 (the infamous Buck election), the remaining ballots have to be R +1.8 (basically R+2). To get to R+4, it has to be D+2.9 (basically D+3).

Only material difference could be that inactive voters were mailed ballots this year as well. We'll see if that inches the turnout numbers higher.

Source: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/vote/Abstract20110630.pdf
 
Good luck with that, Dems. That window is closing quickly.

Those numbers don't look pretty for us.

I'll add that the best day that Democrats have had over the last two weeks was R+2-3 just the other day. Otherwise it has generally held at R+9 or thereabouts. Tomorrow is the last day to mail back ballots--otherwise they have to be dropbped off in-person. In other words, GOTV is getting harder, and not easier at this point.

The Democrats easily close the gap in Colorado and abort both Personhood stooges.

NC: (http://nc-politics.blogspot.com/2014/10/nc-nears-end-of-2014s-in-person-early.html) Less than two days of early voting left and Republicans are just now reaching parity with 2010:

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New Colorado Numbers:
1,149,745 votes banked.
Republicans - 475,677 votes (41.4%)
Democrats - 371,190 votes (32.3%)
Independents - 290,600 (25.3%)
Other minor parties remains around 1%

Turnout is now at 63% of 2010 turnout of 1.821 million.

Sourcing: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

Probably not at this point.b  Disastrous for Democrats

Of course, but to get to R+6, the remaining samples would have to be R+0.7
To get to R+4, the remaining samples would have to be D+4.7
To get to R+1, the remaining samples would have to be D+13

The math is getting increasingly difficult.

The underlying assumption is that turnout reflects 2010. If turn out is greater, the numbers move a bit around the fringes, but the math remains difficult.

According to AP, republicans have 10% lead in early vote nationally. I don't have a link, but drudge is reporting it.

There is no way to really tell that on a narional scale considering quite a few states have no registration by party.  If someone can list out all the states that have early voting and register by party we could perhaps figure that out, but I have a hard time believing it is anywhere near +10 GOP, especially adding NC into the mix.

Democrats once again doing well in Florida, bringing the GOP's lead down from 5.9% yesterday to 5.2% today (https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/528226469827182592)

Looks like this one might be over. Stupendous news!

And if Colorado is at R+9, its not unreasonable to expect R+5-7.

Active Registered Republican voters who have already voted: 50.1%
Active Registered Democratic voters who have already voted: 41.5%
Active Registered Unaffiliated voters who have already voted: 28.2%

source for the total number of voters by party affiliation here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2014/September/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf

Georgia, through Thursday. We have broken the 2010 early voting record by more than 115,000 votes, and my original projections of 750,000 - 800,000 seem to have been too conservative. It's likely that we finish this up closer to 900,000 early votes. The black share of the vote continues to increase and is on track to be 3 to 3.5 points higher than 2010, but we're probably near or at the peak of it in terms of percentage of the electorate. Females are also a slightly larger share of the early electorate than in 2010. Both likely Dems and Reps continue to decrease as a % of the identifiable electorate, but Dems maintain a overall lead in this category by close to 1 point. This early vote electorate as a whole seems to skew a bit older than 2010's, but in Georgia, ideology and voting preference is fairly uniform across age groups.

Republican lead grows in Colorado: amazing

Colorado update #2, 10/31

Total votes: 1,217,284 (approximately two-thirds of the electorate has already voted)

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Total GOP lead over Dems: 111,452 (9.2%)

The 2010 electorate was R+5.9 and 2012 was around R+2. 

RIP Udall

What were the figures in Florida in 2010 at this point, out of curiosity?

I don't see him coming out of this unless Democrats have a big surge in the next four days.


RIP Perdue ;D

I believe Republicans had a 13% lead in 2010, and Dems lost by a single point.

Looks like Checkpoint Charlie is dominating!

Percentage of active voters by party registration who have already voted: (with percentage point change from last update)

Republican: 53.0% (+2.9)
Democratic: 43.8% (+2.3)
Unaffiliated: 31.3% (+3.1)

I don't see the full link to the second update on the SoS site, so I can't update the Minor parties, but....

Received ballots = roughly 67% of the 2010 vote total of 1.821 million.

Assuming similar turnout:
To get to R+6, Democrats (Buck 2010) remaining sample would need to be D +0.4.
To get to R+3, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +9.4.
To get to R+1, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +15.5.

It's the first time that Democrats need to send more bodies to the polls than Republicans to get to R+6.

As Yogi used to say, it's getting late, early.

Note: Slightly adjusted to combine Other vote with Unaffiliated vote to match Bactored's totals.

Splendid facts for the Good Guys!

Ralston says Democrats are up to a 1,200-ballot lead in the Clark County part of NV-04.

Interactive Georgia Early Vote Map: BK and I worked on collecting 2010 data by county tonight in order to bring you this - a map that compares 2010 early voting totals to the current 2014 early voting totals for each Georgia county. We still have yesterday (Friday's) totals to update in the VAN (hopefully today), but by and large, the picture is painted.

To make everything relative until it is updated with the final data, counties with 2014 vote totals of 106% or greater are out-performing the state as a whole in terms of the increase in early voters between 2010-2014; those less than that are obviously under-performing.

Counties shaded red are <95% of their 2010 totals; white is 95-105% of 2010 totals; green is >105%. There's a legend on the actual map below (for example: "0.98" equals 98%). You can click on each county for more details/percentages.

2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout (https://www.google.com/fusiontables/data?docid=1Rh-MgfQsv8TywkhPY7PNi3Imcgpr-2rb5axE_Hz0#map:id=3)

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^ Thanks, Griffin and BK!


From roguemapper at RRH:

Early voting for Lake County, Florida

Democrats: 8,248
Republicans: 12,732
Independents: 3,708
INT (?): 918

I'll get a county map up later if I have time.

Ralston's take after early voting has finished in NV: (http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/early-voting-blog-updated-every-day-numbers-and-analysis) Senate likely gone for Democrats, but the Assembly is looking better. Miller, Marshall could still get by on their crossover appeal.

In-person early voting is done in Durham, NC: There were a total of 33,291 votes cast this year, an impressive increase of 33.6% over 2010. (https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/528638303713886208)

Early voting in Orange County, N.C. (that's heavily-Dem Chapel Hill) finishes with 23,195 voters. That's 43% higher than in 2010%! (https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/528639735129182208)

Dominating!

Whoah, did you know in Alaska you can cast an early vote via fax or the internet (http://www.elections.alaska.gov/vi_bb_by_fax.php)

That's understandable. Isn't half of that state basically a giant glacier in November?

Georgia, Final Early Vote Totals and Analysis:

Wow. I'm not sure what it looks like in every other state (I'll compare later), but the total share of early voters in Georgia jumped from 678,000 in 2010 to 930,000 in 2014.

The black share of the electorate jumped by close to four percentage points (from 29.0% in 2010 to 32.7% in 2014). The white share of the electorate shrank by more than five percentage points (from 66.5% in 2010 to 61.1% in 2014).

When we go by party affiliation based on primary voting record (on a statewide level, this is more accurate than it'd appear and I've explained in detail before why this is), the early vote electorate in Georgia effectively swung from R+6 in 2010 to D+1 in 2014.

By age and by gender, we saw a fairly steady hold between 2010 and 2014. Females were 55% in 2010; closer to 56% in 2014. The youngest and oldest brackets grew and shrank very modestly, respectively, while the 51-64 age group saw the largest growth between 2010 and 2014.

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Here are two maps that show 2014 early vote turnout compared to 2010 early turnout. The first one shows it in sheer numbers; the second one shows it in a "trend-like" format (counties that saw EV percentage growth greater than the state as a whole are green; those that saw less or shrank are in red).

2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout (https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?q=select+col13%3E%3E0+from+1Z-5kuC0XODQldCgGx_jAhrzDQrLLBIuE6sXDr0Cg&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=33.07794278160216&lng=-82.95856843750005&t=1&z=7&l=col13%3E%3E0&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML)

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TREND - 2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout (https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?q=select+col13%3E%3E0+from+1U2COAnIfZeKxlZdt7aLOwXhqsooUFGgCtTXF32lS&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=32.70913560455962&lng=-83.17829500000005&t=1&z=7&l=col13%3E%3E0&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML)

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Griff,

With numbers like this, do you think Nunn can win on election night? Most polls have been showing a slight Perdue lead with a likely runoff, but these are very impressive figures for the D's at this stage.

If she (or Carter) can hit 29-30% with whites and blacks hold at 90% D, then they get a majority when combined with this math; perhaps with even a bit less of the white vote, as I haven't done calculations since blacks were at 31% of the electorate.

3 Million people have now voted in Florida; Democrats have cut the GOP lead to 4.3%, down from 4.8 yesterday (http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/11/3m-in-fl-have-voted-gop-leads-by-126k-ballots-as-dems-close-gap-to-43-.html)

So the South is going in one direction and the mountain states are going in the opposite direction. Funny.

Drop those drawers, Mr. Scott!

Supposedly there has been a big late surge towards Dems in CO early voting, but it could be too little too late... https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/528964024789368832 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/528964024789368832)

^ Yesterday was the first day Democrats returned more ballots than Republicans.

Also from Cohn:


2010 was R +6.8. Udall will need more of a cushion than that, though, as Gardner is gonna obviously run ahead of Buck with Indies.

Dems still down 8.9 in early voting in CO. Considering today is Sunday, I really don't see how they will get anywhere close to the R+6 in 2010 early voting.

Man Nate Cohn really spinning things the last few weeks...

Day by day ballot returns in Colorado:

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Looks like the Democratic Colorado last minute mail-in ballot return wave is building!

With early voting finished in NC: (http://nc-politics.blogspot.com/2014/11/ncs-in-person-early-voting-comes-to-end.html)

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Democrats cast 25% more than 2010, Republicans 6% and Indies/Libertarians 45% (!).

And where each party's votes came from:

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Damn. Terrific work from Hagan's campaign team.

A bit more on the NC early voting totals. (http://www.politicsnc.com/in-person-early-voting-has-ended/)


Further, 54% of those Democrats are black, suggesting Democrats are mobilizing their voters.

Anyone know why Iowa hasn't updated their statistics since Thursday?

In Florida, looks like Souls to the Polls was a smashing success today!

Souls to the Polls was a HUGE success in Florida yesterday!

GOP lead on absentees/early vote now down to just 3.3%, from 4.3% yesterday!

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/11/souls-to-the-polls-gives-dems-major-boost-close-early-vote-gap-to-100k.html

So, when is today's CO vote dump coming in ?

Let's see if Dems continue to close strong there, like yesterday.

Do we have anything concrete on what the early vote was in 2010?

They didn't report El Paso County, so the day wasn't as good for Democrats as it seems.

This morning's report will probably have very little new material, but this afternoon and especially tomorrow morning will be a pretty good look at what the electorate will actually be.  Frankly, I think what is at stake at this point is the gubernatorial race.

Anyone have any updates on this?

IMHO, for the reasons Miles and Backtored (and now TB) have all stated, Udall is likely finished. Of the remaining "swing races" in IA, AK and KS (which Democrats need to sweep if Udall loses in order to firmly keep the Senate), I'm guessing (with minimal certainty) the one Republicans are most likely to win is IA.

Here are some raw numbers out this morning for Colorado:

Republicans lead by eight percentage points, 40 to 32, over Democrats.  That is a roughly 112,000 vote advantage.

R: 558,000
D: 446,000
I: 359,000

I think this afternoon’s report will be much more interesting—and telling, too. 

I still think that the final tally rounds out to somewhere between 1.8 million (2010 turnout) and 2 million.  That means that we might be at or even over 75% at this point.  That doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t dominate the final quarter of the electorate and pull the final number down to R+4 or R+5, but I don’t think that is likely and I still don’t think that will get Udall across the line.

It was R + 6.8 in 2010 and Bennett still won. If it's at R + 4 - R + 5, they will lose. Also, unaffiliateds favor Udall so the higher their numbers are, the better for Dems.

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

Map of NC early vote. (https://twitter.com/L2political/status/529306370202669056/photo/1)

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Overall, about what you'd expect.

Is that with all counties reporting 100% ?

I have no idea.  There were 20,000 El Paso County votes that weren't counted over the weekend, and I don't know if this includes those tabulations. 

From Magellian via the SOS.

Democrats cut the lead from R+9 to R+8. (Although still technically R+9 due to rounding).

Republicans - 556,111 (40.5%)
Democrats - 444,556 (32.4%)
Unaffiliated/Other - 371,382 (27.1%)

Total votes: 1,372,049 (77.5% of 2010 total of 1,821,028)

To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+0.5
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+12.7
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+20.8

We'll see what the afternoon totals bring.

According to printout, 2010 numbers ended up R+5.9.

Sourcing: http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

So basically the dems are guaranteed to get it down to r+6?

The ElPaso numbers increased by roughly 30K since the 10/31 AM filing. SoS never filed a 10/31 PM update. Magellan took down the 10/31 PM numbers. So it's pretty hard to tell. My guess would be yes though.

Well, if Dems can somehow bring it down to R+7 with the final release tomorrow afternoon (will there be one ?), then I could see some path for Udall (incl. the election day voters).

But Udall would have to perform really strongly with Indy voters.

SoS indicated that there will be a Monday and Tuesday release. These numbers are coming from Magellan Strategies, not the SoS. Eventually, the numbers reconcile.

No. Shaving down two full points with three-fourths of the electorate already in would take a really strong Democratic finish. It is entirely possible, but not at all guaranteed.

DOMINATING!!!!

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.

QUESTION: What % of electorat was this R+5.9 back in 2010 ??

66% of all ballots cast.

In fairness, people seem to be expecting 2-2.1 million this year which would make that 65% or so of the expected electorate. Really hard to say. In Oregon about 25% of ballots are dropped off on the day, and about 5% is same-day registration. So odds are 30% will come in tomorrow.

Colorado 11/3 PM update

Total votes: 1463766

R: 590,653 (41.3%) (2010: 39.5%)
D: 469,900 (32.1%) (2010: 33.6%)
U: 403,213 (27.6%) (2010: 26.9%)

Total Republican lead: 8.2%, over 120,000 votes.

Nate Cohn tweeted an update, and apparently we’re now at over 1.5 million counted, and it is still R+8.1.  Compare that to 2010’s R+5.9.

I think we’re probably at something like 80 to 85 percent of the electorate.  You might get another 300,000 or 400,000 late tonight and tomorrow.  But the electorate should look something like R+6 to R+8, exceeding the 2010 gap that Republicans held.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_3312db2753044462ace3834b8d6e536d.pdf

Colorado PM update

Republicans holding stable at R+8

Republicans - 590,653 (40.3%)
Democrats - 469,900 (32.1%)
Independant/Other - 403,213 (27.6%)

The total banked ballots are 1,463,766 (80.4% of 2010 total vote of 1,821,028)

Assuming turnout equals 2010
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+3.2%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+18.5%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+28.7%

Bumping turnout to 2.0 million
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+0.1%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+11.3%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+18.8%

Bumping turnout to 2.2 million
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be R+1.5%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+7.4%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+13.4%

The 2010 vote in Colorado finished R+5.9 (39.5% R, 33.6% D, 26.9% I)

Sourcing: http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_3312db2753044462ace3834b8d6e536d.pdf

It's very hard to model what the Election Day balloting will be in CO. There's bound to be a lot of confusion where people are supposed to vote because the place they normally vote may be eliminated.

In any event, the Dems will have to bring out roughly as many Democrats as the Republicans do to bring the election to the 2010 R+5.9 level. Quite possible, but who knows.

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

That leads the question... do we know from what decent polling we have, where the indy's votes are going?

Udall leads indies 46-37 according to PPP. But party registration and party ID are of course different things, so it's hard to tell.

I'm guessing he leads unafilliateds by double digits. He's going to need to score the high 50s in order to get close to Gardener.

CO update:

1,504,940 votes counted, R: 40.18, D: 32.11


Next update in 3 minutes.

Where do you get these updates?

Sourcing? Don't see it on the SoS or Magellan websites.

Nate Cohn's twitter

We won't even get close to 2 million.

Any news out of KY?

Ok bro, see you tomorrow night.

Here's the long awaited update from CO

1,586,226 votes have been counted.  R: 39.7, D: 32.2

Those figures include a sizable 36706 votes from Denver/Boulder out of the 209303 received so far today.  Among ballots counted so far today, it's R 34.8, D 31.4.

Today's pace wouldn't get Dems where they want to be. Another 500,000 ballots at this pace would yield R+6.6 at 2.086m votes.


Democrats should hope that there are additional Denver/Boulder ballots tonight, and then Dems would still need to far much better tmro

GOP advantage drops from 8.0% to 7.5% with that latest Denver/Boulder batch

^^Dems are on track to improve as they have been doing every day. Excellent news! Mark Udall will win reelection!

R+3 won't get the Dems to R+6. My guess is that these numbers will push back toward the R+8 when the less D-leaning counties report in the AM.

At the end of the day, it could very well be an R+7 sample when all is said and done.

El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

Maybe. I mean, Denver and Boulder counties are staying up late processing ballots and it's possible that every other clerk just went home at 5:00. My hunch is that the number will be in the high 7s until polls close and the final number will be in the 6s.

You know, this chicken sh**t tactic of democratic areas waiting till the last minute to report votes is really getting old.

Reporting your votes is like going to a party. You don't want to be the first to report your votes just like you don't want to be the first ones at a party.

Sorry Democratic areas have more votes.

Per Nate"s twitter:

the gop counties have reported more than the dem counties

GOP leads by 119k right now. Pretty sure the GOP lead by 65k in 2010 at this point. Like I said earlier though, this obsession over the early vote margin assumes that the dems will perform as well on election day as they did in 2010. There is nothing that shows me this is the case.

Well this is interesting:

http://kdvr.com/2014/11/03/republicans-sue-boulder-county-clerk-over-election-challenges/ (http://kdvr.com/2014/11/03/republicans-sue-boulder-county-clerk-over-election-challenges/)

I think it's a bad idea to correlate too much from 2010 to this race. On either side. Unless the vote mix is exactly the same as last year, then it's frankly, a different sample.

That's a good point, Polnut. Now I feel like an idiot for even posting that. haha. Anyway, Cohn reporting that Boulder numbers are basically done. Denver is probably still out there, which is interesting.

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  It's like wishing for history to repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling.  

Yes, I'm sure someone with the signature "Paul/Cruz 2016!" is a paragon of objectivity.

JUNK SIGNATURE! JUNK USER!

KCDem on ignore for his stupidity.

You don't want putting stupid posters on ignore to become a trend. Trust me.

There's only one way to know for sure... wait 24 hours.

Are they feeding these ballots into the optical readers (or whatever they are using) as they get them or do they have to wait until Election Day in Colorado to process?

Conversely, Republican focus on the early vote in CO, IA, NV is assuming that new GOTV efforts are increasing their turnout rather than, for the first time, banking regular Republican votes before Election Day rather than on that day. Republicans have historically not had a problem with turnout, unlike Dems.

They are processed as they come in.

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

All correct.

Glorious news! Each update Republicans lose their edge. Expect a low 6 point to high 5 point advantage when all is said and done. Too close to call :D

So that's a 1.4% margin right now and we lost by 1.7% with KEN. BUCK. when we were +5.9.

More Republicans and even some Dems will be with Gardner.

And if this is before election day voting, the differential may fall below 5.9. If that happens, the base matters less and the center matters more.

Main difference is that the D numbers are down as compared to 2010. R is where it was in 2010. The Is picked up the D vote.  That's a material difference. Even if the D's have a 55-45 or 60-40 edge among Is, it's better for Gardner than 90-10 or whatever the D crossover is.

I can see CO turning into an all-nighter (which would be fun).

Lunchtime CO update: GOP leads by 126k and 7.7 pts.

Only at 1.64 million total votes.

In person Colorado voters 54,053, 33.8 D, 29.9 R.

Democrats always procrastinate when it comes to voting.

Doesn't make the vote count less :D

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

Maybe even Udall...maybe :)

I definitely think the margin is going to be less than 1% there either way. Probably won't know the winner for a few days.

Lief, great sig BTW. Shameful the South exist. The good news is that in the long term their pro-poverty ideology is self-consuming and so their banana republics will cease to be one day.

That is the in-person vote, not the Election Day vote.

Is there much of a difference?

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

I assume this one.

Things haven't actually changed much at all for the last week. The turnout numbers are better for the GOP than expected, but there are still three voting hours left and things could change quickly. Udall could still win but he probably won't. As it's been for a while.

In-person votes are not mail-in votes, which are dropped off at a voting center or mailed to the clerk. Most votes today are not in-person, but rather mailed, do the Democrats' in-person advantage isn't nearly what they need.

If the in person votes hold at D+4 and it winds up being about 25% of the total vote it helps Udall.  If it winds up evening out and/or it only makes up 15% or so of the total vote, helps Gardner.

yeah...

Colorado update: 1,756,240 ballots counted, R 39.2, D 31.9

Gardner. Democrats have about R+5 modeled into their polls that are tied according to 538. It's running at about R+7 at this point in time. Democrat turnout is down about 1% from 2010. Indy turnout is up. The Republican vote is about flat.

Obviously the vote today can move that a tad, but those are the goalposts.

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/unskewed-polls-early-voting-edition/

Just a postmortem on Colorado: final party registration looks to have been R +5.4.