Talk Elections

While the vast majority of cities in California swung wildly Democratic in 2008, there were a handful of cities that swung Republican. I've bolded that one that really surprised me. Anybody have any ideas why these four places bucked the state/national trend in 2008? Did Kerry overperform in these places in 2004, or was McCain that good of a selection for these places?

1. Fortuna (Humboldt County)
2004: Bush 52.11% — Kerry 45.69% = R+ 6.42
2008: McCain 52.29% — Obama 45.13% = R+ 7.16 (Swing: R+ 0.74)

2. Beverly Hills (Los Angeles County)
2004: Kerry 62.09% — Bush 37.04% = D+ 25.05
2008: Obama 59.55% — McCain 39.20% = D+ 20.35 (Swing: R+ 4.70)

3. Laguna Woods (Orange County)
2004: Kerry 53.03% — Bush 46.06% = D+ 6.97
2008: Obama 51.71% — McCain 46.41% = D+ 5.30 (Swing: R+ 1.67)

4. Tehama (Tehama County)
2004: Bush 60.03% — Kerry 38.46% = R+ 21.57
2008: McCain 61.54% — Obama 35.38% = R+ 26.16 (Swing: R+ 4.59)

I know there has been growth in the Republican vote here--IIRC it's due to Iranian Jews. So maybe just demographics.

Lassen County went from going for Meg Whitman 50-42 to going for Kashkari 67-33. Wonder what Brown did to piss those people off.

They realized he was just like other modern Democrats.

Doesnt Lassen also contain a prison? its possible brown just pissed off prison union workers.

Anyways did these towns continue swinging republican in 2012?

Correction. Tehama should be Red Bluff.

Yes, Lassen County contains the High Desert State Prison as well as a correctional center in Susanville.

Two of these four towns swung Republican in 2012 while the other two swung Democratic.

Fortuna
2008: 52.29% McCain — 45.13% Obama = R+ 7.16
2012: 50.79% Romney — 45.93% Obama = R+ 4.86 (Swing: D+ 2.30)
Humboldt County swung Republican, so the small swing to Obama in 2012 is interesting. Fortuna is an anomaly in heavily Democratic Humboldt County. Any theories as to why this is?

Beverly Hills
2000: 76.51% Gore — 20.47% Bush — 2.29% Nader = D+ 56.04
2004: 62.09% Kerry — 37.04% Bush = D+ 25.05 (Swing: R+ 30.99)
2008: 59.55% Obama — 39.20% McCain = D+ 20.35 (Swing: R+ 4.70)
2012: 54.28% Obama — 43.85% Romney = D+ 10.43 (Swing: R+ 9.92)
This continues to perplex me. Los Angeles County swung Democratic in 2012 and yet Beverly Hills had one of the largest Republican swings. It's swung Republican in every election since 2000, as evidenced by the numbers above that I added. Any Beverly Hills/California people care to elaborate about what's going on here?

Laguna Woods
2008: 51.71% Obama — 46.41% McCain = D+ 5.30
2012: 50.77% Romney — 48.21% Obama = R+ 2.56 (Swing: R+ 7.86)
I didn't know before investigating, but per Wikipedia, 90% of this city is a retirement community, and so Obama's poor performance with senior citizens could easily explain this.

Red Bluff
2008: 61.54% McCain — 35.38% Obama = R+ 26.16
2012: 61.99% Romney — 35.09% Obama = R+ 26.90 (Swing: R+ 0.74)
Not sure about this city. The swing was relatively small in 2012, similar to the statewide swing.

This year's result isn't the surprising one. I really can't quite figure out why Lassen County was so close in 2010. Brown's performance this year is quite similar to Obama both times, where the statewide margins are all comparable. The 2010 result was not only anomalous for its current tendencies (as one of the most Republican counties in California), but the 2010-2014 swing is by far the largest of any county in the state (and in the opposite direction). Why would Lassen County have been the sole exception to typical partisan leanings back then?

What the heck is going on in Beverly Hills? It seems like a perfect candidate to have swung toward the Democrats.

As for Beverly Hills, I need the absolute numbers. And the primary results could be interesting.

Without knowing them, I'd say Hillary Democrats simply stayed at home...

Limited to one city?  Seems really improbable.

Beverly Hills has a large and growing GOP-leaning Iranian Jewish population, IIRC. Maybe it's because of their growth.

Beverly Hills is majority Jewish at this point. However, most are not liberal/secular Jews that you'd find in Hollywood and Manhattan. Many are either Iranian or Israeli and vote quite Republican (mainly because they think the GOP is stronger on Israel).

Wasn't the most recent former Mayor of Beverly Hills (Jimmy Delshad) a Persian Jew who's a Democrat? I don't think that's the reason why. It has consistently swung Republican since 2000 while California continues to get more liberal. McCain should not have done better than Bush in Beverly Hills seeing as how Bush held Kerry to single digits statewide in 2004 and McCain got crushed by 24 points statewide. It'll be interesting to see if it swings Republican in 2016 or even goes Republican, but I doubt it will with Hillary on the ticket.