Talk Elections

For discussion of Japanese politics and all things related to Japanese society and culture in general.

I can't believe Abe is still in office.

Uh, okay. Feel free to elaborate on why not.

I was surprised when he initially won LDP leadership again, but since he did, it's far from surprising that he's still there.

I'm surprised he hasn't resigned for no reason like the 17 guys who came before him.

That's a shallow reading of recent Japanese political history. In fact, it's so shallow that other shallow readings suffer by comparison to it.

Noda resigned because he lost an election, Kan resigned because...there were a lot of reasons (which is, in case you hadn't noticed, the opposite of 'no reason'), Hatoyama resigned because he broke a major campaign promise and it caused a fracas, Asō resigned because he lost an election, Fukuda's resignation I'll grant you because it genuinely did kind of come out of nowhere, and Abe resigned the first time because his approval ratings tanked after two successive agriculture ministers left office in unfortunate circumstances (the first killed himself and the second was implicated in a financial scandal) and his health at the time was too poor for him to stick it out. Before that you have Koizumi, who was in power for five years, a long time by Japanese standards; Mori, who was a ridiculously flagrant, obvious, and prolific HP; Obuchi, who fell into a coma and died; Hashimoto, who lasted two and a half years before getting his ass kicked in a House of Councilors election; Murayama, whose shaky coalition couldn't hold together; Hata, whose shaky coalition couldn't hold together; Hosokawa, who got hit with a banking scandal; Miyazawa, who lost an election; Kaifu, whose faction within the LDP proved to be too small to pass his policies; Uno, who got hit with a sex scandal; and Takeshita, who got hit with an insider trading scandal.

That covers the 'seventeen guys who came before' Abe's current term. As you can see, Japanese politics is both a good deal more interesting and makes a lot more sense than you're making it out to sound. It can seem too arcane to pay attention to at times, but, much like Italian politics, it rewards looking behind the scenes and keeping in mind that who holds the office of Prime Minister and who is actually in power are not always and in all places the same.

I'm surprised he's not been implicated in a minor scandal or had his popularity decline due to global economic factors out of his control.

Takako Doi died recently.

It hasn't even been two years.

LDP = Bad

DPJ = Good

I for one can't wait until the DPJ returns to power. Yes it might be another few decades but, whadya gonna do? I don't care how much Abe tries to "reform" Japan, his party has been in power too long (something like 65 out of the last 70 years!). The next Diet election can't come soon enough.

There are a few good apples in a bad barrel, but the proverb doesn't work backwards, so yes, I agree.


This doesn't follow.

The DPJ was thrown out of office for no reason, unless the Tsunami and Fukushima were somehow their fault. It doesn't matter what the LDP does, I consider them a corrupt patronage club, not a party. 

Please read (http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/12/2012121791810808515.html) these articles (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/01/national/dpjs-promise-to-change-the-system-failed/#.VDoMXBbtWZQ); they explain (some facets of) what went wrong better than I can.


That's an entirely fair assessment but the LDP's awfulness doesn't make the DPJ good.

I just found out that the JRP no longer exists, as of a few weeks ago. Apparently Ishihara wasn't on board with Hashimoto's proposed merger with a more centrist (and pacifist!) minor outfit called the Unity Party (which, in turn, had split from Your Party/Minna no Tō last year) and left over the summer with about a third of the JRP to form something called the 'Party for Future Generations'; in September the rump JRP merged with the Unity Party to form the 'Japan Innovation Party'.

Two thoughts:

1. The Japanese far right is as fractious as some countries' far lefts these days.
2. If I saw these as the names of political parties in a work of fiction, I'd decry them as hokey and unreal-sounding.

Thanks for the article. That's pathetic that after 55 years out of power they were overwhelmed by the responsibility of governing.

Question 2: How are the Ainu doing?

They are like the Basques of East Asia. My favorite theory regarding their origin is that both are descended from Neanderthals, since they are so different than all their neighboring ethnic groups. I doubt the theory but its certainly intriguing.

I'm no expert on Ainu issues--I wish I knew more about them, really!--but as far as I know the answer is 'not too great'. There's been talk of attempted linguistic revival but I don't know what's come of that.

The Ainu are doing as well as most Native peoples are in their respective lands; which means not good, as Nathan said.

By the way, how is Prime Minister Abe's approval rating these days?

As of July, it stood at 47%, with 38% disapproving, which only the second time it's been under fifty per cent since his election (a December 2013 poll put him at 49%-34%). It's since risen back into the fifties (http://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/yoron/political/index.html) but is still well below where it was through most of 2013. Selectively reinterpreting Article 9 to allow for a defense buildup turned out to actually be pretty unpopular, among other things. The TPP also remains broadly hated.

The LDP is still far ahead in all polls on voting intentions for the next election, generally finding itself in the high thirties or low forties. Keep in mind that the DPJ, which has clawed its way back into place as the more-or-less undisputed second-most-popular party (the implosion-cum-schism, or schism-cum-implosion, of the odious JRP can't be hailed enough, in my opinion), is at between five and seven per cent in most of these, and the perennially popular 'shiji-nashi' (no/without-support/endorsement/approval) is neck-and-neck with the LDP. These surreally anemic numbers for essentially every party have been the way in Japanese opinion polling for a while now.

I'm surprised, but glad, the DPJ didn't split. Had they done so, I don't think the LDP would really have a clear "opposition".

Could the large number of undecided voters be because Japanese polling firms don't prod the voters enough? Are they more likely to swing to the incumbents or the opposition?

Also lol at the sheer number of parties forming and folding

Possibly. Technically the question that's asked isn't 'for which party will you vote?' but 'of which party do you most approve?' Shiji is the word used for both Cabinet approval ratings and party races.

Also of note: Japan doesn't really have any independent polling firms. Almost all polls are conducted by the country's major newspapers--which still enjoy broad circulation and robust relationships with their readership, in part because of the top-heavy population pyramid and in part because they've been much more on-the-ball about making digital incarnations of themselves available than newspapers in many other countries--or in some cases television news networks.


You know, it's not really clear. In the 2012 general election the undecided voters eventually dispersed roughly evenly amongst all parties, whereas in the 2013 upper house election they mostly dispersed among the opposition parties, leaving the LDP-NKP coalition only slightly outperforming its polling average.

Oh my God. What happened to the Green Breeze Party?

It disbanded at the end of last year. I'm pretty sure Abe Tomoko (no relation to the Prime Minister) was its last remaining Diet member.

What party is she a member of now? What parties did all their upper house members go to? Shizuka Kamei?

Abe is considered an independent now, although I've heard something to the effect that she still identifies herself with the otherwise-defunct Tomorrow Party. I'm not sure but I don't think any of their upper house members survived the 2013 election; if they did, they're independents too. Kamei is an independent.

Apparently Ichiro Ozawa's People's Life Party is still around, surprisingly.

I looked around Japanese Wikipedia for a bit and apparently there is still one former Green Wind member around in the upper house, Kanda Kuniko. She's in Your Party now.

Not really surprising. They've been around in one form or another for like 2 decades.

It's surprising that they haven't merged with another party yet or somehow split.

Abe and his government are currently embroiled in their worst crisis since he became Prime Minister again. Last month, he appointed five new women ministers to the Cabinet. While this was an admirable gesture for what it was and particularly welcome in the context of Abe's so far seemingly well-intentioned attempts to make up for his dismal record on women's issues during his first premiership, none of their tenures have gone well, and Abe has left himself open to accusations of, among other things, tokenism.

Two of the new ministers--Economy, Trade, and Industry Minister Obuchi Yūko (daughter of Keizō, Prime Minister 1998-2000, whose seat in exurban/rural Gunma she's held since his death) and Justice Minister Matsushima Midori--resigned yesterday over campaign finance scandals (Obuchi's staff embezzled and distributed campaign monies as personal gifts, allegedly without her personal involvement; Matsushima improperly distributed thousands and thousands of paper fans with her likeness and policy platform on them to her constituents at a festival); of the remaining three--Interior Minister Takaichi Sanae, National Public Safety Commission Chairman and North Korean Abductions Advisor Yamatani Eriko, and Arimura Haruko, who's Special Minister for, concurrently, Regulatory Reform, Food Safety, the Declining Birthrate, and Gender Equality--all visited the Yasukuni Shrine the other day, and Yamatani has come under fire for associations with Zainichi Tokken wo Yurusanai Shimin no Kai ('Association of Citizens Who Won't Forgive/Excuse Special Privileges for Ethnic Koreans'), which is exactly the sort of group you'd expect it to be (unless you would expect it to be violent. It's more Front National than Golden Dawn, thank God). Naturally, these sorts of associations are especially damning for a minister whose portfolio by its very nature is intimately concerned with Korea.

Furthermore Takaichi may or may not have neo-Nazi sympathies.

Arimura is alone in not really having done anything wrong besides the Yasukuni visit. She also has a Master of Arts in Conflict Transformation from the School for International Training in Vermont. Let's see if she can put it to use to get her and her colleagues out of this shitstorm.

This is particularly saddening to me in the case of Obuchi, who before this broke was one of my favorite LDP politicians (which is, for once, not actually intended as damning with faint praise). She was widely visible and highly popular, was considered a leading moderate in the government, and was seen as one of the likeliest possibilities to be Japan's first woman Prime Minister. She was also intended to act as a comforting and palatable face for the plans to restart Japan's nuclear reactors. Personally, I'm not really mourning Matsushima because Matsushima was a wingnut anyway (she once seriously floated the idea of giving sex offenders what was essentially the A Clockwork Orange treatment) and replacing Tanigaki Sadakazu with her was a bad idea in the first place.

Matsushima's been replaced by Kamikawa Yōko, an uncontroversial-seeming longtime backbencher from Shizuoka about whom I know nothing. Obuchi's been replaced by Miyazawa Yōichi, a similarly obscure Councillor and former Representative from Hiroshima.

Perhaps the curse of Abe's abysmal first term is heading back with a vengeance. The IMF has also slashed Japan's predicted growth, blaming the consumption tax rise.

The sooner the idea that (unfair, regressive) consumption taxes are somehow a particularly salutary method of revenue generation gets out of the collective head of the worldwide governing classes, the better.

Thanks for all the info.

Tokenism isn't anything new, but when it blows up like this, it's unfortunate. Especially since Abe was trying to generally do a good thing by appointing them.

Is there something wrong with the vetting process in Japan? Or do the would-be minister not go through one?

I can only assume it's next-to-nonexistent, because Matsushima's fan distribution shenanigans and Takaichi's pictures with the leader of the National Socialist Japanese Workers' Party (of whose identity she since claimed to have been not entirely aware at the time that they were taken), at least, showed up after pretty cursory investigation.

It should, in fairness, be noted that Matsushima almost certainly could have survived the fan thing, she just chose not to.

ETA: This gets worse, by the way. Abe had to apologize to the leader of Kōmeitō for making them (Kōmeitō) look bad by association; the new Defense Minister, Eta Akinori, is in trouble for improperly revising his expense reports; the new Agriculture Minister, Nishikawa Kōya, has had to divest from a livestock concern involved in an investment scam; the new Health Minister, Shiozaki Yasuhisa, has had to deny influence-peddling for an old folks' home in his constituency; and Tanigaki described Obuchi as 'a symbol of women’s active participation in society' in a context that made it clear that her loss as such is projected to be incredibly damaging to the government.

It will be interesting to see how Abe's approval rating is looking after these scandals. Wouldn't shock me if it's under 45%.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Abe is no longer in office by the end of the year if this goes on. (Not to overstate the case--I wouldn't be surprised if he is still in office either.)

If he's out, who do you think will replace him? Is there any chance Aso might come back for another go as PM?

I've heard murmurs about Suga Yoshihide (ugh) and Kishida Fumio (meh), but I don't have a good track record of predicting LDP leadership changes. If I did, Tanigaki would have been Prime Minister for the past two years.


God, I hope not.

A bunch of Japanese firms and government agencies have offered to help develop a new capital for Andhra Pradesh. (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Japan-to-help-Andhra-Pradesh-develop-new-capital/articleshow/44909370.cms) Japanese-Indian relations have long been a special area of interest for Abe.

His views are pretty much in lockstep with Modi, so it makes sense.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-23/abe-minister-says-aide-spent-funds-in-bondage-bar-reports-say.html

The newly appointed industry minister Yoichi Miyazawa which replaced Yuko Obuchi who herself quit after a few days due to another scandal admitted that his underlings had spent office cash at a S&M sex bar.  What is funny about this in addition to the scandal aspects of this is aristocratic nature of these appointments. Yoichi Miyazawa is the nephew of a former PM and Yuko Obuchi is the daughter of a former PM.  Oh yeah, Shinzō Abe is the grandson a PM as well while we are at it. 

On the other hand I really doubt any of these scandals will lead to Shinzō Abe's departure.  What took him down last time was not the scandals per say but scandals PLUS DPJ led alliance taking over the upper house.  Once the scandals hit, the DPJ was justified in blocking everything that the Shinzō Abe regime was doing on the principle that these scandals proved that Shinzō Abe lost the right to rule.  Such a situation is not in place today with the opposition parties still nowhere in terms of being able to join forces and challenge LDP.  Unless LDP sees a danger of losing the next round of elections, Shinzō Abe is safe.

They need to vet these guys.

"Japan General Discussion" should be banned from any self-respecting English-speaking website.

More news on Yoichi Miyazawa, who only took the job a few days ago when predecessor Yuko Obuchi stepped down.  It appears that he has a stake in the operator of the Fukushima nuclear plant that he oversees.  This extra awkward since it is his job to convince the public that it is safe to restart the plant  which has the side affect of increasing the value of his shares.  To be fair the amount in question is only a few thousands dollars.  The complaint seems to be that he should have just sold this stake when he was given this job. 

Anyway, I do think it is critical that these nuclear plants do start up as soon as possible.  I was on a business trip to Tokyo in Aug this and I the comment I made to myself was "why is the AC here so bad or non-existent."  Then I realized it is because of the bad power situation. 

Bullsh**t. A cabinet reshuffle is going more pear-shaped than I've seen or heard of any cabinet reshuffle going since Macmillan's Night of the Long Knives. This is comedy, this is drama, this is everything we (or, at least, I) follow international politics for. It wouldn't be self-respecting of us not to have this thread.

Yoichi Miyazawa's response to the most recent scandal where he has found to hold stock in the company whose cleanup of the devastated Fukushima nuclear plant he would oversee is quite funny.

“Honestly, I thought it was my duty as a politician to possess them,” Mr. Miyazawa said, according to Kyodo News, saying that ownership of the shares had allowed him to keep an eye on the company’s efforts to clean up after the 2011 nuclear accident.

Imagine if the US secretary of Defense would say something like "but I thought it was my duty as a politician to own shares in Lockheed Martin, that way I can keep a eye on that contractors work delivering weapons orders from the Defense Department"

Japanese officials have arrived in North Korea for talks on the abduction issue. I'm not optimistic.

A chapter of the Izokukai, a powerful conservative interest group representing the families of the Japanese dead of World War II, now supports removing Class A war criminals from Yasukuni (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/world/asia/japan-yasukuni-shrine-izokukai.html), or at least in some way 'separating' them from the other souls enshrined there.


(The title of the New York Times article might give the false impression that the Izokukai as a whole has embraced this proposition; it is in fact just the Fukuoka chapter.)

I thought I'd do a complete list of all parties represented in the lower house, their rough numbers of seats, and their general ideologies. Descriptions of parties that existed two years ago will be generally based on those that I gave in the 'Japan 2012' thread back then, but may differ in wording.

Party standings in the lower house (ruling party in bold, coalition partner in italics):

Liberal Democratic Party (big-tent conservative, with factions ranging from traditionalist to neoliberal to historical-revisionist to what could almost be considered Right-Hegelian; has been in power for all but six of the past sixty years): 293
Democratic Party of Japan ('Third Way', big-tent, essentially governed as generic (and incompetent) 'reformists' while in power from 2009 to 2012): 55
Japan Innovation Party (Nationalist, neoconservative, populist, would be unambiguously far-right had it not absorbed a more moderate party in recent months): 41
Kōmeitō (Nichiren Buddhist, religious conservatives in the Japanese context, center-right, dovish whereas the LDP is generally hawkish): 31
Party for Future Generations (unambiguously far-right, split from the Innovation Party over the latter's absorption of the more moderate party): 19
Your Party (neoliberal and generically reformist): 9
Japanese Communist Party ('Eurocommunist' except it's not Europe): 8
People's Life Party (Ozawa Ichirō appreciation life): 7
Social Democratic Party ('Third Way' and more committedly so than the DPJ): 3
New Party Daichi (was a ragtag bunch of misfits except now there's only one misfit left): 1

Speaker and Vice-Speaker: 2
Independents: 11

The government now has a notional majority of 326-154 out of 480, counting the Speaker and Vice-Speaker since Japan to the best of my knowledge uses Speaker Denison's rule.

The notional majority was 327-153 after the last general election.

IIRC New Party Daichi drop the "True Democrats" part of there name.

That being said, nice list. It'll probably change next week, but it's great you made it.

You're right. Edited to reflect that.


Thanks! Depending on interest, these posts will probably end up being a fortnightly or monthly series.

Also, my how the SDP has fallen. The JCP has maintained the same amount of support since the 60s, though.

Bank of Japan decided late last week to expand on the QE program sending world stocks higher along with the Japanese market as well as sending the JPY to record lows.  I guess this will have the short term effect of giving the impression that Abeonomics is going somewhere but the weaker JPY will see price for consumers rise even while their income stagnate.  I guess the Bank of Japan and Abe are hoping that the profits this QE shot spurs might make its way to pay increases.  If not the political impact on Abe on the medium run will be quite negative.

UPDATE1: Abe may dissolve lower house for Dec. election: sources+
TOKYO, Nov. 11 Kyodo
(EDS: ADDING ABE'S QUOTES, DETAILS)
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering dissolving the lower house and calling a snap election by the end of this year as he faces a tough decision on a planned consumption tax hike, government and ruling party sources said Tuesday.
"The prime minister is considering various options, and one of them is a House of Representatives election by the end of the year," a government source said.
A senior official of Abe's Liberal Democratic party said the premier "may dissolve (the lower house) as early as Nov. 19," two days after he returns from a summit of the Group of 20 countries in Australia, the last leg of his ongoing three-nation tour.
If the lower house is dissolved, official campaigning for a general election is expected to start Dec. 2 or Dec. 9, with voting set for Dec. 14 or Dec. 21, according to the sources.
But Abe remained mum on the possibility of dissolving the lower house.
"I haven't decided anything about the timing of the dissolution," Abe said at a press conference Tuesday in Beijing after attending a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
"I've heard that speculation-based media reports are spreading in Japan," Abe said. "I haven't mentioned the dissolution even once."
Earlier Tuesday, however, Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of the LDP's junior coalition partner Komeito, said in Tokyo he will prepare his party "for a year-end election scenario."
Abe is expected to meet with Yamaguchi and other ruling party executives shortly after his return from the overseas trip to discuss what course of action to take for the lower house.
Abe may also listen to what Yamaguchi says about consumption tax policy.
Some have said Abe should decide after the election on whether to go ahead with raising the tax rate to 10 percent from the current 8 percent as stipulated by a law.
The tax increase is aimed at covering swelling social security costs for Japan's graying population. The country's public debt is equivalent to more than 200 percent of gross domestic product.
The Abe government has said it will make a final decision after assessing preliminary and revised GDP data for the July-September period, due out next Monday and Dec. 8, respectively.
In the wake of the April 1 tax hike from 5 percent to 8 percent, the Japanese economy contracted an annualized real 7.1 percent in the April-June period, its worst setback since the first quarter of 2009.

Abe is gambling with this... he might win more seats... or he might loose seats.

Normally when you gamble, you loose.

I suspect he will lose.  What he is saying is "I am going to delay the consumption tax which might lead to bad results and make me unpopular, so I am going to have an election now to lock that in so when the bad results come it is too late for you to try to punish me." What is going in his favor is that the JIP (fusion of JRP and the Unity party which is a Your Party splinter), DPJ, and various other center-left parties (PLP, SDP etc etc) are all disunited and not ready for a campaign.  On the other had sending the signal that Abeconomics is not working and wanting an election now might prompt de fact anti-LDP tactical voting and as a result LDP-NKP does not well as expected (still winning a majority of course.)  This time LDP-NKP does not have viable YP to pull int anti-LDP-NKP center-right voters.  These voters might end up voting DPJ to oppose LDP. This is the main risk of this election for Abe.

Latest NHK poll.  Abe approval  44-38.  Support for parties

LDP   36.6
NKP    2.2

DPJ    7.9
JIP     1.2 (this is the Hashimoto Party)
JCP    3.5
PFG   0.2  (this is  Ishihara Party)
PLP    0.0
SDP   0.7

I suspect LDP-NKP will get around 38-42 in the party list vote which would be similar to 2012.  But in the FPTP vote there will be more anti-LDP-NKP tactical voting leading to a smaller majority than 2012.

Of course Abe could be very effective in communicating why an election is necessary without making him look like a someone that is trying to lock in some result knowing that things will blow up in the future.  If so it will be an LDP-NKP sweep.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure he'll loose a good few seats. Though the LDP will still have a rather large majority.

Random question; what exactly is the Nippon Kaigi? I've just read about it now and the New York Times paints it out to be rather "ominous" and comprising a majority of the House of Representatives.

It's a historical revisionist nonparty organization/interest group. I'm not entirely sure if a majority of the House of Representatives is affiliated with it, but a majority of the Cabinet definitely is. All told it has several tens of thousands of members around Japan, many of whom are Shinto priests--it supports a return to State Shinto and is thus a deeply religious, almost theocratic, organization in a way that roundly contradicts the stated beliefs and positions of the official postwar Association of Shinto Shrines. It's also known for opposing gender equality laws.

In addition to the LDP, I'd hazard a guess that the group is right up significant proportions of the JIP's and PFG's respective alleys. Kōmeitō is almost definitely not on board for the most part, since the frisson of Shinto theocracy is anathema to Kōmeitō's unusually (for Japan) non-syncretistic form of Buddhism.

The chairman of the organization, Miyoshi Tōru, was Chief Justice of Japan from 1995 to 1997.

The DPJ and Your Party might merge. If this happened though, a significant number of Your Party members, including party founder Yoshimi Watanabe, would leave and probably join the fascist Party for Future Generations.

There was also some talk of the DPJ and Japan Innovation Party merging but that fell through because it was just ridiculous.

Japan Innovation Party leader Hashimoto has instead called on right leaning members of the DPJ to join with him in creating a whole new party.

The trend over the last few months has been the center-right opposition parties had to start choosing between being pro-LDP or anti-LDP.  This is the case for both YP and JRP.  First YP had a split where anti-LDP faction formed the Unity Party (UP.)  Then JRP wanted to merge with UP and that is when the pro-LDP faction in RJP which is Ishihara  (his own son is in the LDP) split to create Party for Future Generations (PFG) (really funny because almost everyone in this party is pretty much over the age of 70.)  JRP then merged with UP to form Japan Innovation Party (JIP).  Now, what remains of YP want to merge with DPJ.  I am almost certain that the pro-LDP faction of what remains of YP will bolt from this (namely Watanabe who formed YP in the first place.)  If the DPJ-YP does merge or form an alliance I am sure Watanabe and his faction will split from YP and merge with PFG.

Yes, there is talk of DPJ and JIP merging which seems unlikely.  An series of tactical alliance seems possible to stop the LDP-NKP onslaught. I think PFG which is really just a new version of the old  Sunrise Party led by Ishihara really is just an extreme right wing version of LDP and rope in 1%-2% of the vote if that much.

Oddly, as of right now, it looks like the People's Life Party is the most left-wing party, as it's the only one that opposes nuclear power and the only one against the TPP.

Besides the Communists of course.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-blow-for-tokyo-and-washington-okinawa-elects-anti-base-governor/2014/11/16/eeade0e6-829f-4e32-991a-26826a2450be_story.html

"In blow for Tokyo and Washington, Okinawa elects anti-base governor"

This is a severe blow to Abe's government as the new governor will veto the US base moving plans and Abe will have to either overrule him (looks bad) or try to convince him to go along or look very bad in front of the Americans. 

Apparently Onaga was backed by a broad coalition of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito prefectural officials.

Is he a hawk or a dove?

The former I would imagine.

Actually turns out he was former LDP backed by the SDP and the JCP.

Food for thought,,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24822-japans-ageing-population-could-actually-be-good-news.html#.VINHmXtFqJ8 (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24822-japans-ageing-population-could-actually-be-good-news.html#.VINHmXtFqJ8)

Personally I think a declining population is a blessing, it is only a matter of using the options it provides wisely and limiting the negatives. As with so many other challenges its a matter of prudent management, but Japanese politicians are terrible at thinking out of the box.

No, it's not a good thing. No amount of spin can make it a good thing.

You get less pressure on the environment incl. less resource consumption and traffic congestion with a smaller population. Economically they actually get a higher per capita income and the workforce to dependent citizen ratio is the same, just olds and not children. Health care costs are low by world standard due to a healthy lifestyle.

In the end the entire planet will go through a shrinking population phase once a higher standard of living and the assorted individualism kicks in, so the we need to find a way to take advantage of population decline instead of treating it as a big problem.

Even if one thinks population decline is a good thing, Japan's population is shrinking too rapidly.  The fertility rate is a miserable 1.4 births per woman.

How is that miserable? It's not even shrinking.

Women only represent roughly 50% of the population. In order to maintain the current population size, they would need to have a rate of 2 births per woman

Eh, I still think it's cool.

What is this? "Higher per capita income"? Who do you think produces GDP? If there are no children to become workers then how does the ratio stay the same? Why hasn't that ever been observed? Why would this precipitate a healthy lifestyle?

There being no people at all would be great for the environment and for traffic congestion. Do you think there should be no people? What you are saying is absurd.

Bumping this because the $600 exercise election is over, and the hunt we'll be on for a new DPJ leader.

Also, Abe has announced that all members of his cabinet pre-dissolution will be staying on.

It seems that you didn't read the article before you commented. It is the authors argument based on interviews with researchers, not mine. Some of the claims are counterintuitive, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are wrong.

1) Income is of course produced by the workforce, but the point the article makes is that the ratio of productive citizens to dependents in Japan stays constant, just with fewer children and more olds in that group. In this context it is quite plausible that productivity (due to tech improvement etc.) increases more than the loss due to a shrinking workforce.

2) The article  deals with the current situation in which the worker/dependent ratio is stable. You are right that this seems unlikely long term with a (too) fast shrinking workforce (you would need a more gradual reduction for that). Even if we assume they will still get a worse dependent/workforce ratio long term, the point is that this effect will be smaller than often assumed (given that people have a tendency to forget that olds are not the only dependent group in society). Given the excellent health of Japanese seniors they are also in a better position to postpone retirement age than most Western countries.

2) Japan has a healthy lifestyle (incl. diet) which is why they are better equipped to handle depopulation than most. Health costs don't go through the roof in the same way they would  in the US with a similar population distribution.

3) Of course there should be people in the world, but world population was 2 billion in 1927 and is fast approaching four times that number. Imagine how much more space and natural resources we would have if we were still at that level. Most of our current problems in the world are due to being too many to share limited resources.

4) As said before: In the long run depopulation will come to us all due to individualisation, higher education level and rising living standards (well educated affluent career women don't want lots of kids). It is a scenario we better learn to figure out how to use in a constructive way and it is basically also a necessity in order to achieve a sustainable world.

The Japan Times has a good article on who might succeed Kaieda as leader of the DPJ.

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001794076 (http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001794076)

Currently, my money is on Seiji Maehara.

Post election polls

Kyodo poll.  Approval of Abe Cabinet 46.9%/45.3%. 62.8% of surveyed don’t think Japan economy will improve on Abenomics. 55% do not support Abe's security policies.

In a widely-watched test of strength, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s candidate for the governorship of Saga Prefecture lost to the candidate promoted by Japan Agriculture (JA), the organization of Japan’s farm cooperatives. The key issue for us is whether this makes it more difficult for Abe to go along with the liberalization measures on farm imports that are indispensable to security an agreement with the US on market access for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement.

In the gubernatorial election in Saga prefecture in western Japan on Sunday, Abe and the LDP put up Keisuke Hiwatashi, a supporter Abe’s efforts to reform the JA-Zenchu system. JA-Zenchu responded by putting up its candidate, Yoshinori Yamaguchi, a conservative former official of the Ministry of Agriculture (MAFF). There were two other candidates. Yamaguchi beat Hiwatashi 182,795 to 143,720 in the voting in Saga, a prefecture on the southwestern main island of Kyushu with a population of about 800,000 people.

Ironically, one of the reasons why LDP was defeated was due to low turnout where the very well organized JA was able to defeat the official LDP candidate.  Back in December one of the main reasons for the LDP-KP landslide was due to low turnout.  This will have an impact on TPP reforms that Abe was hoping to push forward.

While Abe won an overwhelming victory in the December Lower House elections, he has to worry about local elections coming up this April and the Upper House election coming up in July 2016. While the rural vote and JA-Zenchu did not have an outsized role in the LDP’s fortunes in the Lower House election it will have more leverage in the local elections. Moreover, it will have more leverage in the Upper House elections, where 29 mostly-rural single-seat prefectures usually tip the balance to one party or another. Since Abe needs overwhelming majority in both Houses to push his security-related agenda, including setting the stage of eventual Constitutional revision.

According to Jiji Press, an LDP lawmaker backed by farmers warned that the fight over JA-Zenchu reform would certainly affect the series of local elections in April as well as next year's election for the Upper House. Whether that is an accurate assessment or a JA-Zenchu boast in the wake of the Saga victory remains to be seen.

4.98 trillion yen in the 2015 defence budget (http://news.yahoo.com/japan-approves-biggest-ever-defence-budget-amid-asia-013128742.html). That is 5% of the national budget and the highest share for defence in Japan since the bad times.

The Japanese education system's slow but hopefully-inexorable march Shimura Takako-wards continues apace with a new decree from the Ministry of...a variety of things, we'll say Culture for now.

Here's (http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201503030045) the English Asahi shinbun article. I want to address some of the terms used here, and in order to do that I'll need to reproduce close to the whole thing, so in the hopes that this'll get around the copyright restrictions I'll be using my own translation of the Japanese article, made before I read the English article. They contain the same information, but organized differently.


1. 性的少数者 seiteki shōsūsha. 'Sexual minorities'--'minorities' as individuals rather than groups since the sha means 'person'; a term for 'minorities' as groups appears later in the article--is what this literally means. This isn't a term that I like very much in English and in a more polished translation I'd be using 'LGBTQ' (the official English version of the article uses 'LGBT'), but with the sentences in this one being the way they are I felt like that would break up the flow of the text.
2. 同性愛者 dōseiaisha. This is the generic, formal Japanese term for somebody who is exclusively or almost exclusively attracted to the same gender. I don't think it has the same undertone of hostility that using 'homosexual' as a noun does these days in English, which is why I translated it 'lesbian and gay' instead; the fact that the word includes the kanji for 'love' as well as that for 'sex' may have something to do with this. In the Asahi Digital version that my subscription is to, this word comes with a pop-up explaining what it means every time it appears. (Admittedly, so do several of the others, but it's particularly noticeable, and alarming honestly, with this one.)
3. 性同一性障害 seidōichiseishōgai. 'Gender Identity Disorder' is the preferred translation of whatever group of people it is that actively works with this term. The legal definition to which the article alludes is apparently more restrictive than the already quite tight DSM definition of gender dysphoria.
4. 両性愛者 ryōseiaisha. This is a calque of the English word 'bisexual' formed by analogy to 同性愛者, which significantly predates it in the Japanese lexicon.
5. （性同一性障害などであることを）隠そうとし (seidōichiseishōgai nado de aru koto wo) kakusō toshi. Literally 'to hide [things like Gender Identity Disorder]'.
6. 性に関して少数派である者 sei ni kan shite shōsūha de aru mono. My translation is literal except for 'find themselves in', which in Japanese is a flat 'are' (not 'are in', just 'are'); since the ha in shōsūha means 'clique, faction, group, party, school, sect' (this is the term for 'minorities' as groups referred to above), 'are' didn't make sense in English, which has a much clearer distinction between singular and plural in terms of subject-verb agreement (as in, in English such a distinction exists).
7. 性分化疾患 seibunkashikkan. 'Disorders of sex development' is the translation supplied by the Japanese Wikipedia page for this term. In English it's a more recent categorization of the types of conditions conventionally referred to as 'intersex'. The literal parsing is something along the lines of 'sexual parts change disease'. Obviously most intersex people would probably object to this characterization.
8. I have no idea what this is and neither version of the article explains it.

BUMP for another update on party standings! Descriptions of parties will be generally based on those that I gave before the election in December, but will be worded differently.

Party standings in the lower house (ruling party in bold, coalition partner in italics):

Liberal Democratic Party (formerly a big-tent party that could be described as Right-Hegelian by people interested in those sorts of terms, currently in the process of being taken over by unreconstructed wingnuttery, denialism, and bigotry): 291
Democratic Party of Japan ('Third Way', big-tent, essentially governed as generic (and incompetent) 'reformists' while in power from 2009 to 2012, until recently led by a former television personality): 72
Japan Innovation Party (Nationalist neoconservative populists who benefit by comparison to the PFG (see below) but suffer by comparison to practically every other party; one is tempted to say 'JIP' stands for 'Japan Independence Party' instead, by analogy to UKIP): 40
Kōmeitō (Nichiren Buddhist, religious conservatives in the Japanese context, center-right, dovish whereas the LDP is in its present form super-hawkish, are the 'thin yellow line' in keeping the LDP from changing the part of the Constitution that renounces war): 35
Japanese Communist Party (Imagine if Enrico Berlinguer were a weedy-looking bespectacled guy who appeared in campaign posters with his dukes up pledging to FIGHT THE CONSUMPTION TAX INCREASE TO PROTECT YOUR LIVELIHOOD): 21
Party for Future Generations (One is tempted to say 'PFG' stands for 'Party for Fascist Goons' instead, by analogy to the fact that they're a party for fascist goons): 2 (which is thankfully one-tenth of their parliamentary party immediately before the election)
People's Life Party (Ozawa Ichirō appreciation life, Ozawa being a long-time power broker and obvious crook now fading into pathetic obscurity; the most left-wing non-Communist party, which is really [Inks]ing sad; the party's full name in Japanese translates to 'The People's Life Party and Yamamoto Tarō and Friends'; Yamamoto is an actor (he played Shōgo in Battle Royale) turned anti-nuclear gadfly member of the House of Councillors): 2
Social Democratic Party ('Third Way' but at least they actually are Third Way, unlike the DPJ): 2
Something called 'Kanagawa Reform for Everyone' (I have no idea what this is) (EDIT: jaichind explains this below): 1

Speaker and Vice-Speaker: 2
Independents: 7

The government now has a notional majority of 328-147 out of 475, counting the Speaker and Vice-Speaker since Japan to the best of my knowledge uses Speaker Denison's rule.

The notional majority was 326-154 before the last general election, when there were five more seats in the chamber.

The Japanese Catholic hierarchy expressed serious concerns over the Abe government's nationalism the other week. Internet commenters promptly accused the prelates of being 'leftist activists'. (http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201504280011)

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/05/17/national/politics-diplomacy/osaka-referendum-rejects-merger-plan-possibly-ending-hashimotos-political-career/

Osaka referendum rejects merger plan, possibly ending Hashimoto’s political career.  It was defeated 49.6 vs 50.4.

Too bad.  I actually have learned to like Hashimoto at lot more.  Of course it has more to do with the libertarian turn of JIP after its merger with a faction of YP.

This is good news for DPJ as this means it will continue to dominate the opposition space.

There is a new political force which got created as a part of the 2014 lower house elections.  It is
日本を元気にする会 or The Assembly to Energize Japan.  It is the rump YP that did not join DPJ or JIP but continued after the dissolution of YP.  It is led by 松田公太 (Kota Matsuda) who was a member of YP who has a business background.  This party has some some strength in the Upper House and is an advocate for limited government.

I'm actually not as sure of the merits and drawbacks of the proposed Osaka merger as I'd like to be, but in any case this result is good in that it contributes to the neutralization of Hashimoto as a political force, although I have to say I agree over the past year or so he has become a little less overwhelmingly objectionable than he once was.

In addition to 'limited government' the Assembly to Energize Japan is also apparently for 'internet freedom' and 'direct democracy'. The combination of these three priorities leads me to the impression that ideologically it might be some sort of weird cross between the American Libertarian Party and M5S.

There is another YP remnant party, 神奈川みんなの改革, or Kanagawa Your Party of Reform (there seems to be no official English translation) which is a regional party based in Kanagawa.  It is led by 浅尾慶一郎 (Keiichiro Asao), who was the last leader of YP.  He took over leadership of YP after Watanabe stepped down and it was his disagreement with Watanabe over the future of YP during the 2014 election campaign (he was for an alignment with DPJ while Watanabe was for an alignment with LDP.)  It turns out Watanabe lost re-election while Asao won re-election in 2014.  Anyway, he now leads this Kanagawa regional party and he is joined by an former YP member of the Upper House from Kanagawa so this party has 2 MPs in the Japanese Diet.

In the most recent prefecture election for Kanagawa, 神奈川みんなの改革 only won 1 seat out of 105.

It seems JIP leader Kenji Eda will also resign over the defeat of the Osaka referendum defeat even thought this entire effort is really run by Hashimoto.    Most likely  Yorihisa Matsuno will take over.   Matsuno was a DPJ MP that defected to JRP in 2012.  He holds center-right views and was close to DPJ PM Yukio Hatoyama.  Yukio Hatoyama fall from power within the DPJ was one of the mains reasons why Matsuno went over to JRP.

That doesn't seem too bad at all, considering. What does 'center-right' mean in a current-JIP context?

Matsuno seems to take a more revisionist position on the Yasukuni Shrine issue, tougher on the North Korean issue, and opposed to naturalized citizens participation in Japanese politics.   Overall I like  Kenji Eda better mostly because Kenji takes an unambiguous line on the role of free markets and the need for regulatory and labor market reform.   

...what in the world is 'center-' about any of that?

JIP elections Yorihisa Matsuno as leader.  Most likely Matsuno will move JIP toward a closer alliance with DPJ in opposition to LDP.  Kenji tended to position the JIP equidistant between DPJ and LDP.

Asahi Shinbun 'Tensei Jingo' piece: Osaka Mayor Hashimoto nosedives into a chasm of his creation. (http://ajw.asahi.com/article/views/vox/AJ201505190033)

What is interesting about the Osaka referendum are the strange alliances it created.  It actually was

{Osaka Restoration Association + JIP + National LDP + National KP}

vs

{Osaka LDP + Osaka DPJ + Osaka JCP + Osaka KP (kinda) }

JIP is really the merger of JRP and a YP splinter.  JRP was really the national version of Osaka Restoration Association and to keep its Osaka local identify Osaka Restoration Association never joined JRP or JIP.

The Osaka branch of LDP DPJ and JCP are all bitterly opposed to Osaka Restoration Association.  Many of the leaders in Osaka Restoration Association are LDP rebels but the vote based on Osaka Restoration Association is more from DPJ than LDP.  This has led to both LDP and DPJ being opposed to Osaka Restoration Association.  The National KP actually has good relations with Osaka Restoration Association with the Osaka KP somewhat lukewarm.  The national KP supported calling the referendum but then the Osaka KP did come out lukewarm against it and the Osaka KP did not really campaign against it.

The national LDP led by Abe was really hoping that Hashimoto wins the referendum to enhance his power within the JIP over the pro-DPJ faction within the JIP.  Abe was hoping that after the 2016 Upper House elections he can construct a 2/3 majority around LDP, pro-revisionist former YP, JIP and DPJ members.  For that to take place the leadership of the JIP must not be pro-DPJ or else alliance dynamics of a DPJ-JIP alliance will dictate that such support will not be forthcoming.  Ergo it was critical that Hashimoto enhances his power in JIP.   As for KP, It was really the national KP since it was part of the Abe cabinet that came in to pressure the Osaka KP to at least support holding the referendum while many of the Osaka KP was against it leading to a neutral position during the vote.  What is also interesting and funny is that the Osaka LDP, DPJ, and JCP formed an unlikely united front to campaign against the Osaka merger idea.  

Now that the referendum failed and Matsuno in charge of JIP, chances are that there will be a DPJ-JIP alliances and perhaps a merger.  Of course  Osaka Restoration Association will not be part of this and will continue as a separate party.  Even when Hashimoto retires from politics like he said later this year, the  Osaka Restoration Association will need his legacy to continue to get votes.  So there is no way that  Osaka Restoration Association will enter into an alliance with DPJ let alone join it.  I can see next year  Osaka Restoration Association and JIP split completely into two truly separate parties.  Osaka KP's relationship with its national party is damaged as well as Osaka LDP's relationship with Abe.  I am not even sure Hashimoto is really gone.  He will retire from Osaka politics but can I see Abe bring him in as a LDP candidate at the national level in the future.  Of course if he runs as LDP in Osaka it would lead to a civil war in Osaka LDP with Osaka LDP revolting against Abe.   2016 Osaka politics will be fun.

For Abe it is back to the drawing board on how to construct a 2/3 revisionist majority in the Upper House.

I doubt that drawing board will much avail him. Most of the Japanese people just don't seem particularly thrilled with revisionism. It's unfortunately not the fringe position it used to be, but I doubt it's in and of itself nearly as much of a winning issue as Abe seems to hope it is.

I actually think that Abe believes this is the right thing to do even if it loses him and the LDP votes.  Most previous LDP politicians of various strips might believe in this to different degrees but was mostly about using it to corner the nationalist single issue vote to augment their various clientelist voting blocs but was never really pay the political, be it internal or international, costs of actually carrying out.  Abe is different I think.  He is about getting it done even if it cost him political capital. 

Of course Abe believes it's the right thing to do. He has deeply personal reasons (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobusuke_Kishi#Descendants) to believe that. What I mean is that an amendment to the constitution requires a majority vote in a referendum to go into effect, and I honestly kind of doubt such a majority would be forthcoming. (Unless there are other things that I'm unaware of that a Diet supermajority can do that don't require a referendum.)

More interesting facts about the Osaka Referendum.  Turnout was almost 67% compared to 47% turnout in the December Lower House elections.  The zones that had the highest turnout also were the most opposed to the Osaka restructure plan.  The zones that had a No majority tended to have turnout of around 69% and the zones that had a Yes majority tended to have a turnout of around 65%.  This means that the political apathy of Osaka and most likely of all of Japan is more of function of distrusts of political parties and less about political issues as a whole.  And when there is something to vote against they will turnout. 

Japan's parliament enacts law lowering voting age from 20 to 18.  DPJ used to push this thinking that the youth tends to vote center-Left.  Recently LDP is pushing it on the premise that the youth might be becoming more conservative.  Either way, no one seems to want to oppose this, not even the DPJ.  It is also an attempt to counterbalance the growing domination of the elderly during elections.  For example, during the Osaka Referendum, all age groups voted for the proposed change except for the 70+ age bracket.  But that was enough to defeat the proposal. 

Latest Asahi poll has the Abe cabinet approval rating at 39/37.  53/29 are against the various security bills that the Abe want the pass.  Various other polls last couple of weeks has Abe approval around low to mid 40s.  The bump Abe got from his trip to USA is gone and dropping. 

It seems the most recent drop is mostly driven by the security bills debate.  It seems that the Abe cabinet is by historical terms fairly popular but any policy that the Abe cabinet seems to push is always falls in popularity.  The Abe cabinet is more popular than any of its policies. This seems to be driven by the lack of alternatives to LDP-KP as well as the fact that the Abe cabinet is seem to be trying to fix the economic problem.  Ergo any policy that the Abe cabinet seems to push that is no economic in nature is less popular and gets less popular as time goes on.

Abe has pledged to pass the bills that allow Japan to defend other countries in the current session of parliament, which has been extended through September.  The opposition claims this violates the Constitution.    A Kyodo News survey has support/oppose of these bills at 28/59.  I wonder what the LDP level of support will be in the polls after pass this this law over the opposition of a ever larger majority in the public.

Wait, he's not even bothering to attempt to change the constitution to allow this, he's just going ahead and passing it with the constitution as it currently reads? In a better world he'd be sure to suffer extreme and more or less immediate political consequences for doing that (and for being so personally obsessed with doing it regardless of what the country thinks or wants), but it's Japan in a year other than 1993 or 2009 and he's the leader of the LDP so he'll unfortunately probably more or less get away with it.

Worth noting that the Japanese Supreme Court has the power of judicial review but almost never exercises it.

On Thursday, at a meeting of nearly 40 lawmakers from Abe's LDP, participants called for restrictions on media that oppose the government's bills.  "If you want to punish the media, the best way is to cut their income from advertisement," an LDP lawmaker told the closed meeting, the Asahi Shimbun newspaper said, quoting participants.  The unnamed lawmaker and others also called on the nation's biggest business lobby, Keidanren, to help financially pressure media that were criticizing the bills, the daily added.  When Abe was confronted with this he did indicate that freedom of press must be respected.  I guess the hawkish wing of LDP must feel the pressure of the dovish wing over the public opinion polls and the view of the hawks is that this is mostly a function of media coverage.

Abe has to do it this way since he currently cannot change the Constitution.  That will have to wait until after the 2016 Upper House election where hopefully for him LDP-KP gets a massive majority like in 2013.  Then convince KP to come along which is mostly about convincing the married women's wing of the Soka Gakkai, convince the dovish wing of the LDP to come along and then that would put him at around 63% of the Upper House seats.  Then add a handful of PFG MPs and then peal off some hawkish supports of DPJ and JIP for a 2/3 majority.  There are a lot of ifs but he seems determined to try.  This set of bills is more to show that moving in that direction has no real international consequences so the doves of all types (in LDP and KP) will come along after 2016 elections.

Oh, man, these people are just absolutely disgusting, aren't they?


Yes well one can only hope that that won't happen, especially if the electorate realizes that militarist amendments to the constitution would be a probable outcome.

I still don't get how Abe can be doing so well, when literally all of his policy proposals are deeply underwater amongst the public. Well that's a lie, I do know the reason:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/06/24/commentary/japan-commentary/pathetic-state-dpj/#.VY23i4ikqK0 (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/06/24/commentary/japan-commentary/pathetic-state-dpj/#.VY23i4ikqK0)

But I still find it baffling and depressing.

Oh God... Is the LDP still far ahead in the polls? Is there any chance Japan finally gets a credible opposition force?

Be careful. The Japan Times is viciously anti-LDP.

Yes.


Not really. The various opposition parties could collectively retain enough presence in the Diet to prevent Abe from changing the constitution, but will almost certainly not be able to actually take power in the foreseeable future.


This particular article barely discusses the LDP at all until towards the end. It's as much anti-pro-DPJ as anything.

Well, I'm speaking more generally.

I think I pointed this out before.  But the biggest reason the Japanese voter tell posters on why they support LDP/Abe is : "Because there is no one else."

The latest NHK levels of support are

LDP    35.8%   
DPJ       9.4%   
JIP        2.6%   
KP        3.6%   
JCP       4.4%

Even though LDP is way ahead one has to un-skew Japanese polls.  Japanese polls always overestimate LDP support and underestimate DPJ KP and JCP.  For NHK polls I found that the vote share of LDP+KP is what NHK shows plus 0% to 2% in the PR vote.  While one usually double the DPJ poll result to be its real vote shaer.  So if an election is called today LDP+KP would get around 40%-42% while DPJ would get around 19% although in an election campaign I am sure these numbers would be higher.  But it is clear that despite everything LDP-KP did lose ground since the December Lower House elections and DPJ gain ground.  If these levels of support continues into 2016 then Abe will find it hard to get the 2/3 majority he is looking for.

How much longer do we give Abe? He's dipped below 40%, and Japanese PMs don't usually recover once they sink that low.

Well, that is one poll.  Most other polls are mostly in the 40s.  On the other hand these polls were from early June before the security bills became part of the public discussion.  I do expect these polls to also fall, perhaps to below 40% so we will have to see what other polls show.  On the other hand once Abe rams these laws through and memories of public opposition fade from the debate Abe's approval rating will recover but perhaps not to the level where LDP-KP can win in a landslide in 2016.  If so LDP-KP in 2016 will gain a few seats versus the 2010 election but not enough to give him the 2/3 majority he needs.  Especially if changing the Constitution might become a topic of the 2016 elections with all things equal will work against LDP-KP.

I think the question isn't about LDP losing, but about LDP returning to its tendency to ditch leaders very often.

LDP ditches leaders because 1) their poll numbers are so bad that they will get in the way of LDP winning and 2) LDP is really a confederation of various factions so the various faction leaders want their chance to be at the top.  Abe has neutralized both problems for now.  Even in the low 40s or even high 30s in terms of approval rating Abe can still claim that it is good enough for a majority given how badly split the opposition is.  Also Abe has weakened the faction leaders so much that none of them are much of a threat to him. In fact the only real influential faction leader, Nobutaka Machimura, leader of the Machimura faction, the faction that Abe is from, died just recently removing the last LDP factional check on Abe.

Latest Nikkei polls (which tends to be more pro-Abe/LDP) has Abe Cabinet Approval at 47/40 and support for new securities bills are 25/57. 

Sankei poll.  Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet  approval is now 46 which is the lowest for Sankei since Abe came to power in Dec 2012.  Security related legislation approval are 59/32.

The magazine Shūkan Gendai  (週刊現代) came out with a bombshell.   It claims that a couple of weeks ago, Abe meet with a bunch of senior members of the media at a high end Chinese restaurant (赤阪飯店) (ironically).  After Abe got drunk he admitted that the purpose of these security bills is to prepare the way for a war between Japan and PRC.   He also bashed Obama as weak and ineffective in dealing with PRC and not being able to get moving on TPP.

While I have no doubt this is how Abe feels inside, I think even a drunk Abe is not foolish enough to say something like this openly.  This feels some sort of plant by the media to wreck Abe's plans for the security bills.   This is relevant because up until now the media has been very supportive of Abe.  But recently events seems to have turned the media against Abe.

PSA: The NHK poll are NOT polls of voting intention. They are polls of party approval ratings, in other words poll of which party they think is handling themselves the best in parliament.

I get my data from

http://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/yoron/political/index.html

Where it says it gives the numbers by party under "政党支持率."  Of course it could mean something different in the Japanese context but in Chinese 政党支持率 means party support not really party approval.  While NHK is not the best pollster it does have a historical time series which is great.  If you look at the time series one will notice that the number each party gets under 政党支持率 rises arcross the board around election season which implies it is party support and not party approval.   I could be wrong about that.

Mainichi poll has approval at 42/43 although Mainichi polls historically has been less friendly to LDP than normal.

()

Approval of security bills are 29/58.

Abe has extended the current diet by 3 months to avoid passing the security bills while are so unpopular.  He has the votes to pass it but is hoping that extra time will give him a chance to increase popular opinion on the bills before he passes it.

Seems like bad politicking IMO. Pass them quick, and then pass some giveaway bonanza bill.

Didn't Abe get on pretty well with Obama? They seemed nice enough to each other, not like there was anything brewing under the surface. Abe was even invited to speak before Congress.

Latest polls.  More downward slide for Abe.

Asahi
Approval 39/42. 
Passage of security bills 26/56

NHK
Approval 41/43
LDP party support at 34.7
KP party support at 4.2

My rule of thumb is that LDP+KP vote share in an election should be the sum of its polling numbers plus 1%-3%.  So in an election LDP+KP should get around 41%.  If this is replicated in the Upper House elections in 2016 it should be enough for LDP+KP to win a majority but not enough for 2/3 majority that it needs.

If LDP+KP comes in at 41% in PR in 2016 Upper House elections and a similar swing takes place in the district seats, a back of the envelope calculation shows that LDP+KP will come in at 64 out of 121 seats.  Adding 76 LD+KP seats from 2010 gives 140 out of 242 seats for LDP+KP, putting it 22 seats short of 2/3 majority.  Of course we have to add to LDP+KP 6 PFG members in the Upper House that will for sure vote for Constitutional change.  That leaves it 16 short.  Then it comes down to how much of the JIP will vote for this.  If Hashimoto retires end of 2015 as claimed then it is unlikely more than a couple of JIP MP of the Upper House will vote for Constitutional change.  Then we have 7 MPs of The Assembly to Energize Japan which is a post-YP outfit.  A small majority if not all of this bloc could be bought to vote for change but that still leaves Abe a handful short even in a best case scenario.  Only way out of this is somehow to buy the JIP to join Abe wholesale but I do not believe Abe has the political capital to do this.

So we can say for sure that if we go by current level of LDP-KP support then Abe will not get the 2/3 majority he needs to change the Constitution. 

If it ends up being widely understood that Abe doesn't have the votes to change the constitution anyway, then I'm not sure he even gets KP to vote for it.

Looks like LDP-KP will try to ram the security bills through the Lower House on Thursday over the objections of DPJ JCP and JIP.  Not getting JIP support is critical as this might polarize JIP against the planned Constitution change Abe is sure to try if he does well in the 2016 Upper House elections.   Anyway doing this is while the bills are so unpopular is sure to drag down the support of LDP-KP, at least in the short run.

The bills got through committee. I note, with no small amount of dismay, that Kōmeitō has finally gone from being a party with some semblance of positions and ideals of its own to being a lockstep glorified SGI vote bank for Jimintō through and through.

Wouldn't the JIP be inclined to support the bill?

KP is really controlled by Soka Gakkai.  Soka Gakkai is really controlled by the Soka Gakkai Married Women's division.  Abe convinced the Soka Gakkai Married Women's division to go along with this plus, I am sure, continued concessions from LDP to KP in local elections.  Remember, KP is dovish but at the core does not care about national politics.  KP is mostly about local prefecture level politics.  As long as LDP does things in a way to help KP in local politics (like making sure that no national elections take place at the same time as the unified local elections as to lower turnout which in turn helps KP) then KP can be bought off, at a price of course.  

Remember, the original KP started as an extreme anti-LDP party and was very active in trying out various anti-LDP alliances in the 1960s to the early 1990s.  It actually was allied with JCP for a while to oppose LDP and then after that broke down it went into various alliance with various centrist anti-LDP parities.  The rise of Ozawa as the leader of the anti-LDP bloc and how he treated KP turned off KP so much that it decided that it rather be anti-Ozawa than anti-LDP.  So KP can change on this why cannot KP bend a bit on this topic, for a price of course.

Of course if Abe goes for Constitution change next year after 2016 Upper House elections then the price the KP will charge will go higher.  Perhaps to a level that LDP will not let Abe pay.

JIP, like DPJ and LDP, have hawkish and dovish wings.  The hawkish wing is large enough so that perhaps JIP and Abe could have reached a deal.  But with the hawkish Hashimoto claiming he is going to retire JIP is now the leadership of Yorihisa Matsuno who has a DPJ background and seems to be neutral on the hawk-dove axis.  Yorihisa Matsuno for now take taken the route of tactical alliance with DPJ so while JIP, to placate its hawkish wing, offered to with with Abe on revised watered down version of the bills.  Abe turned down JIP giving Yorihisa Matsuno the excuse to then come out to oppose Abe and join the opposition walk out of the Diet when these bills were passed.

Abe seems to be willing to take a hit in terms of popular support to get these bills passed.  The problem for him is that the trend is in Japan since 2006 is that once a PM's support falls below some threshold there is no return.  The anger at the grassroots seems to be real.  There was a 60000 person protest rally the day before. and all opposition parities walked out the Diet.  In Japan where etiquette is pretty important, these are significant steps and speaks to the depth of anger at these moves, especially when the guy on the street must be saying "Why is Abe doing this when he was elected to fixed the economy and I do not see the economy fixed yet."

Since it seems that Abe is going all out to push his security agenda despite political damage to himself and LDP, then we cannot rule out him doing the same after the 2016 Upper House elections to try to cobble together a 2/3 majority in Upper House for Constitutional change.    If so it makes sense to do a bottom up analysis on where we are likely to be after the 2016 Upper House elections  in terms of numbers.

First we should account for the 121 Upper House members elected in 2013 and where they stand assuming Abe first buys off KP

Out of 121 elected in 2013 we have

Pro-Constitution change (80)
LDP    65
KP      11
PFG     4

Anti-Constitution change (29)
DPJ     17
JCP       8
SDP      1
PLP       1
OSMP    1
NRP       1

Neutral (12)
JIP        6
AEJ       4  
YP-Ind   2


Lets dig into the 12 Neutrals to see where they might stand

Of the 6 JIP MPs elected in 2013.  They are

東徹 - LDP background and based in Osaka.  Most likely loyal to Hashimoto so he will most likely back Constitutional change.
清水貴之 - Seems to lean right and have contacts with PFG.  Most likely will back Constitutional change.
川田龍平 - YP background and based in Tokyo.  Tend to lean left.  Mother was a noted pro-JCP politician.  Most likely to oppose Constitutional change.
儀間光男 - Local Okinawa political party background.  Just that alone, given the relationship between Abe and Okinawa we can say he is most likely  to oppose Constitutional change.
藤巻健史 - Tokyo based and very right wing in terms of economics.  Not clear where he stands on Dove Hawk axis but given his aversion to DPJ SDP JCP in terms of economic political will mostly stand with LDP and be for Constitutional change.
室井邦彦 - Long time politician and has been in LDP and DPJ before joining JIP.   Does seem to be very active in promoting political rights of Koreans in Japan.  For that reason he is most likely repelled by FPG and most likely will be against Constitutional change.

Of the 4 AEJ MPs elected in 2013 (mostly as YP)  They are

行田邦子 - Has DPJ background and was in Green Wind for a while before joining YP.  Active in women's rights organizations.  Most likely to be against Constitutional change.
アントニオ猪木 - A famous sumo wrestler before entering politics as very colorful politican.  Was in FPG for a while before joining AEJ.   He was the lone dove in FPG and was close to the DPRK regime.   He only joined FPG because of his relationship with Ishihara Senior.  Once Ishihara retired he also split from FPG when his politics does not match FPG.  Most likely to be against Constitutional change.
井上義行 - In theory was not in LDP but back during Abe I did work with Abe as one of the ministry secretaries before entering politics.  Given this personal relationship of the past is likely to be   for Constitutional change.
山口和之 - Has a DPJ background before joining YP.  His position on the Dove Hawk axis is not clear.    But all things equal will be for Constitutional change if there seems to be momentum behind it since he has a track record of being an opportunist.

The two YP independents

渡辺美知太郎 - Nephew of YP founder  Watanabe.  Given  Watanabe's relationship with Abe he will be for Constitutional change.
薬師寺道代 - Has a medical background.  Does seem to be more Hawkish on the Dove Hawk axis so she will be for Constitutional change.

So it seems the neutrals will break 7-5 for Constitutional Change.  

So rough guess on where the votes will go for the 121 MPs elected in 2013 is

87 for Constitutional change
34 against Constitutional change  

Now lets take a look at the likely outcome of the 2016 Upper House elections.

Of course to estimate the chances of Constitution change which requires 2/3 majority we also have to estimate what the hawk/dove breakdown from the 2016 Upper House elections.  I thing a good now-cast estimate which would assume that the LDP+KP take a 5% swing against them since 2014 which is what current polls  plus a bit of a recovery would imply.

1) LDP+KP will get around 42% of the vote on the PR slate due to the dent they took recently.  That would translate into around 21 out of 48 PR seats.  PFG optimistically could end up with 1 seat (assuming they keep their 2014 voting base.)  AEJ most likely will not win enough votes to get a PR seat and even if it does it is not clear that the AEJ MP will be a Hawk.  So on the PR slate the hawks would get 22 out of 48 seats.
2) FPTP wise we can go district by district to do a now-cast how the results would go as far as what the LDP+KP could end up capturing.  We can assume the PFG cannot win a FPTP seat unless it is backed by LDP which is the same as a LDP seat.  Using a more optimistic for LDP/KP analysis of the FPTP results we get

北海道 - LDP will win 1 of 2
青森県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
岩手県 - LDP will win 0 of 1
宮城県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
秋田県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
山形県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
福島県 - tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP
茨城県 - LDP will win 1 of 2. LDP could win both with 2 candidates but will not work if they try
栃木県 - LDP will win 1 of 1.  Non-LDP might have a chance if DPJ JIP and AEJ join forces.  Unlikely
群馬県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
埼玉県 - LDP/KP will win 2 of 3
千葉県 - tossup on if LDP/KP 1 or 2 of 3 -> assign 1.5 to LDP
神奈川県 - LDP/KP win 2 of 4
東京都 - LDP/KP win 2 of 5.  In theory LDP/KP could win 3 but DPJ MP 蓮舫 will win a lot of LDP votes
山梨県 -  tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP
新潟県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
富山県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
石川県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
福井県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
長野県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
岐阜県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
静岡県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
愛知県 - LDP will win 1 of 3
三重県 - LDP will win 0 of 1
滋賀県 - LDP will win 0 of 1.  Popular DPJ incumbent is actually married to a LDP Upper House MP
京都府 - LDP will win 1 of 2
大阪府 - LDP/KP will in 2 of 4
兵庫県 - LDP will win 1 of 2
奈良県 - tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP.  Popular DPJ incumbent but trending LDP
和歌山県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
鳥取県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
岡山県 - LDP will win 1 of 1.  Might be tossup if popular but elderly DPJ incumbent runs.  Unlikely
広島県 - LDP will win 1 of 2. LDP could win both with 2 candidates but will not work if they try
山口県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
徳島県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
香川県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
香川県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
愛媛県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
高知県 - LDP will win 1 of 1.  In theory DPJ incumbent has chance but JCP will split anti-LDP vote
福岡県- LDP will win 1 of 2. LDP could win both with 2 candidates but will not work if they try
佐賀県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
長崎県- LDP will win 1 of 1
熊本県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
大分県 - tossup on if LDP wins 1 or 1 -> assign 0.5 to LDP
宮崎県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
鹿児島県 - LDP will win 1 of 1
沖縄県 - LDP will win 0 of 1

Which sums up to 45 to 46 seats for LDP+KP in FPTP out of 73 seats.  Add to that 22 PR seats for LDP+KP and PGP.  We have the hawks winning 67 to 68 seats out of 121.

This projection seems reasonable.  In 2004 LDP+KP won 45.5% of the PR vote and won 70 seats overall.  If they drop to 42% but with an more fractured opposition winning around 67 to 68 seats seems reasonable and most likely too optimistic.  

If we add then on top of 67 to 68 the 87 hawk seats from the MP elected in 2013 it gets us 154 to 155 seats for Hawks overall versus 162 needed for 2/3 majority.

So Abe need to peal off 7 to 8 MPs elected in 2016.  AEJ might win 1 seat in FPTP not it is not clear that MP will be a Hawk.   Other than that it is really do a deal with JIP or somehow peal off a large number of JIP MP especially when in such a scenario JIP most likely won around 11-12 seats so we are  talking about pealing off a majority of the JIP 2016 elected MP contingent.  Both are unlikely.

So a bottom up analysis shows with current polling and some slight recovery for Abe, 2016 Upper House elections will not deliver him a 2/3 majority unless he buys off JIP which seems very unlikely.  LDP does not have enough political capital to buy off both KP and JIP.

Jiji poll. 
Abe Cabinet approval 40.1/39.5
Government explanation of security bills is sufficient 12.8/73.7
Bills are Constitutional 19.8/53.8

You know that scene in Rebecca where Mrs Danvers leads the second Mrs de Winter into Rebecca's bedroom, and she's clearly uncomfortable and unhappy to be there but Mrs Danvers just keeps going on and on about Rebecca's hairbrush and showing her Rebecca's lingerie? Abe is Mrs Danvers, the Japanese public is the second Mrs de Winter, and the Greater Japanese Empire is Rebecca.

In the first poll taken completely after the security bills passed the lower house, Kyodo news poll (which historically has a anti-LDP bias) has

Abe cabinet approval   37.7/51.6
Support the way security bill was passed 21.4/73.3
Support security bill 24.6/68.4

LDP support 31.9 (-5.5 from June)
DPJ support 11.2 (+1.2 from June)

Lastest Mainichi poll after security bill passes lower house

Abe Cabinet approval  35/51
For  security bills 27/62

Abe has scrapped Zaha Hadid's 2billion pound Olympics stadium mid-project, citing escalating costs.

Very good.

Inclined to agree with you. I don't mind Hadid, but this project was a bit naff. It does show Abe, however, is beginning to panic amid various unpopular projects going down like a lead balloon amongst the public. I suppose this (unlike say the nuclear plants, the Okinawa military base etc.) was the easiest thing to ditch while juggling Abe's priorities.

Now is the time to distribute populist goodies to ease the edge and divert attention. Abe spent a lot of political capital getting this through, he has to build it up again.

Antonio Inoki is not a sumo wrestler! He's one of the most famous professional wrestlers ever (invented the Enziguri, wrestled for 4 decades, wrestled almost every wrestler in existance, basically invented MMA, once fought Mohammed Ali, etc.). Kind of like Japan's Hulk Hogan equivalent.

If you saw a picture of him, you'd know he was never a sumo wrestler (far too skinny).

Yes yes.  My fault.  You are right of course.  I actually knew this but because I was writing about Japanese politics a Freudian slip caused me to write Sumo.  Sorry.  Anyway it seems that he got involved in politics back in the 1990s and had formed his own party called "Sports and Peace Party." He was elected to the Upper House  back then.  Then various scandals drove him out of politics and he came back in 2013 as part of JRP followed by PFG and now AEJ.  Even back in 2013 he did not really fit into JRP when JRP was pretty hawkish toward DPRK and he was and still is very close to the DPRK regime.

LDP endorsed an Upper House Redistricting bill proposed by JIP PFG and AEJ.  The bill would narrow the maximum vote value gap between the most and least populated constituencies to 2.97 times from 4.77 times in the previous upper house election in July 2013, which the Supreme Court ruled last year was "in a state of unconstitutionality."  DPJ has a more radical bill but it seems to have no chance as LDP is going with the JIP-PFG-AEJ bill.  KP is also opposed to this bill and supports the DPJ version of the bill.  What this bill will do is

Merge 鳥取県 and 島根県 into one district.  Net loss of 1 LDP seat relative to my expected 2015 results
Merge 徳島県 and 高知県 into one district.  Net loss of 1 LDP seat relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 北海道 from 2 to 3.  Net gain of 1 anti-LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 東京都 from 5 to 6.  Net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 愛知県 from 3 to 4.  Net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 兵庫県 from 2 to 3.  Toss up on net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Increase 福岡県 from 2 to 3.  Net gain of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results
Decrease 宮城県 from 2 to 1.  Net loss of 1 anti-LDP seat relative to my expected 2015 results.
Decrease 新潟県 from 2 to 1. Toss up on if LDP or anti-LDP lose seat relative to my expected 20 results
Decrease 長野県 from 2 to 1. Net loss of 1 LDP relative to my expected 2015 results.

So it seems this plan will be a wash for 2015 FPTP seat distribution as far as the hawk vs anti-hawk balance.  
 

A few days ago, Abe appeared on TV to try to explain the security bills being passed in an attempt to increase public support for it.   What is funny the childish props he used in his explanation.

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The idea is that the security bill allows Japanese forces to help allies like the USA just like Japanese fireman now could help put out fires with American fireman in putting out a fire in an American house.

This is the video of Abe

https://youtu.be/P4UxxpOz07E?t=427

Also, there is a bus with flags of UK, Germany, France and Canada (the G7 minus Italy?) for some reason.

The idea is that when USA's house is on fire, USA allies comes in and help but not Japan.  That is why security bill is necessary.

He couldn't have found less disturbingly fleshlike representations of fire?

I think he needed to show that a fire in the USA house could spread to Japan so he needed a fire blob that can be folded so he can tilt the fire toward Japan without it falling off.

Seriously, this TV appearance, besides being mocked on the Japanese internet as childish, does not address the core Japanese public concern that this bill will lead Japanese self-defense forces to be deployed in all sorts of wild and crazy USA adventures like Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya etc etc.  The concern was never that Japanese public not want to aid USA if the USA homeland is under attack.

Abe did do something smart and showed the other USA Western allies in his props.  The only argument in his favor is the deep seeded Japanese view since the late 1800s that Japan should "Leave Asia and Join Europe." Back in the late 1800s is to make sure Japan does not become prey to European imperialism.  Now it is fear that the Asian balance of power is shifting dramatically against Japan.  Either way making the argument that Japan most not be part of Asia but put of the West has subliminal legs in Japan so Abe is quite smart in trying to tie Japan passing these bills to remain part of the West.

Latest polls from

Yomiuri (most pro-LDP)

Abe Cabinet approval 43/49
Support Security Bill to pass current parliament  26/64

and

Nikkei (middle of the road)

Abe Cabinet approval 38/50
Support Security Bill to pass current parliament  26/57

Understand that the way the poll is phrased it most likely underestimate support for the Abe security bills.  Since it asks about support of passage in current parliament opponents will also include opponents that might not reject the bill but object to it on procedural grounds (not enough debate and compromise to take into account amendment ideas for opposition parities.)

Seiko Noda (野田聖子) who is a senior women LDP Lower House MP came out against the new security bills.  She has been talked about as a possible challenger to Abe in the Sept LDP leadership election and a possible future first woman PM.  She claims that she does not, as of today, plan to challenge Abe but I guess she is hedging in case Abe's approval rating falls further and she can then challenge him as a liability for LDP as a dove.  She indicated that perhaps  Shigeru Ishiba (石破茂)  who himself is a hawk should challenge Abe in September. 

I thought I write about the recent history of the Far Right Hawk parties in Japan which I find very interesting.

The latest batch of Far Right Hawk parties mostly starts with and ends with Takeo Hiranuma (平沼 赳夫) who was always on the LDP far right wing.  He left LDP in 2005 as a postal reform rebel and was elected as an independent even as the LDP-KP rode to victory in a landslide.  As LDP fortunes  waned in 2007-2008 he saw that the creation of a Far Right alternative to LDP could have legs.  As a result in 2008 he formed the Hiranuma Group (平沼グループ) which consisted the Far Right portions of the LDP postal reform rebels, various LDP rebel MPs or ex-MPs, plus a few DPJ and non-LDP hawks.  The Hiranuma Group ran in 2009 elections as an alliances of independents with mixed success winning 3 seats including Takeo Hiranuma himself as the DPJ cruised to a landslide of its own.  The other winner was Koizumi Ryuji(小泉龍司) and Kiuchi Minoru(城内実) both of whom were LDP postal reform rebels.  Otherwise only a couple of  Hiranuma Group won a sizable amount of votes and a few managed to drag down the LDP candidate by splitting the center-right vote base.  After the 2009 elections the Hiranuma Group was transformed into a party 国益と国民の生活を守る会 which means "Alliance to protect the national interest and the people's lives."

In 2010 Takeo Hiranuma decided to try to created a political realignment and created Sunrise Party of Japan (SPJ) based on the  "Alliance to protect the national interest and the people's lives."  Long time LDP Far Right leader Hiroyuki Sonoda (園田博之) left LDP to join SPJ as well as the old DPJ hawk Shingo Nishimura (西村眞悟) even as Koizumi Ryuji choose not to join SPJ and became an independent.   Behind the scenes the godfather of SPJ was of course long time LDP far right leader and Governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara(石原慎太郎).  The SPJ did not do that well in the 2010 Upper House elections as the YP captured the anti-LDP and-DPJ vote bloc.  SPJ won around 2% of the PR vote and elected an MP Toranosuke Katayama (片山虎之助) who was an LDP Upper House MP but joined Hiranuma Group and then SPJ.

After the 2010 elections the SPJ formed a loose alliance with a more libertarian-hawkish LDP splinter New Renaissance Party (NRP) which also split from LDP in 2008 as well as LDP populist postal splinter party People's New Party (PNP) which was formed in 2005.  

In 2012 Takeo Hiranuma took the SPJ and followed the Shintaro Ishihara-Tōru Hashimoto deal to form JRP.  SPJ merged into JRP while PNP went back to its alliance with DPJ for the 2012 elections. Kiuchi Minoru choose to return to LDP instead of joining JRP. The 2012 elections had JRP winning a bunch of seats with many members of the SPJ now winning as JRP MPs with Takeo Hiranuma, Hiroyuki Sonoda, and Shingo Nishimura winning as MP in addition to Shintaro Ishihara among others.  Koizumi Ryuji also won as an pro-JRP independent.

In 2014 the Shintaro Ishihara-Tōru Hashimoto split was becoming obvious so JRP split into JIP led by Hashimoto and PFG led by Takeo Hiranuma (with Shintaro Ishihara as godfather of the PFG).  It seems that Shingo Nishimura refused to join PFG and instead re-created SPJ with himself as leader.  Then when the 2014 elections were called Shingo Nishimura decided to join PFG as a candidate since there was pretty much zero support for SPJ.  Takeo Hiranuma and Hiroyuki Sonoda were re-elected on the PFG ticket while Shingo Nishimura and Shintaro Ishihara were defeated.  Again, Koizumi Ryuji also won as an pro-FPG independent.  But overall FPG bombed in the 2014 election.

With the prospect of PFG dim after the 2014 election there was talk that Hiroyuki Sonoda might return to LDP.  In the end Hiroyuki Sonoda did leave PFG but in a surprise he joined and became to head of the re-created but leaderless SPJ.  After a few months it was clear that SPJ was going nowhere either and Hiroyuki Sonoda merged SPJ back into PFG.  At least now there is one united party that represents the Japanese Far Right.  PFG only has 2 seats in the lower house but 6 seats in the upper house since several former YP MPs choose not to join JIP when YP merged with JIP in 2014 instead joined FPG.

In the first electoral test of LDP after the security bills became a significant issue the Sendai city (仙台市) council elections were held on this Sunday.  Sendai is the capital city of Miyagi Prefecture (宮城県) and the largest city in Northern Japan with a population greater than a million.  The city council elections are all multi-member constituencies with single non-transferable vote (SNTV).

Once one counts various independents with the parties they are associated with or allied with, LDP did suffer a setback in term of vote share but did not lose that much in terms of seats given DPJ and JCP did not nominate enough candidates to take advantage of the LDP vote share decline.

2015
Turnout 35.8%

                  Candidates     Elected      Vote share
LDP                 24               21               35.25%
KP                     9                 9               14.82%
JCP                    7                 7               14.19%
DPJ                 11               11                19.85%
SC                    5                 1                  4.00%
SDP                  6                 5                  7.99%
JIP                    2                 1                  2.68%
Ind.                  2                 0                  1.23%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        55  seats total

SC stands for 輝くまち or Shining City.  It is a post-YP regional party of  Miyagi Prefecture

2011 results
Turnout 40%

                  Candidates     Elected      Vote share
LDP                 25               22               39.88%
KP                     8                 8               13.67%
JCP                    7                 7               10.92%
DPJ                 15                 9                19.13%
YP                     6                 4                 7.37%
SDP                  6                 5                  7.17%
Ind.                  5                 0                  1.86%
----------------------------------------------------------------
                                        55 seats total

2007 results
Turnout 46.4%

                  Candidates     Elected      Vote share
LDP                 33               28               42.59%
KP                     8                 8               13.22%
JCP                    8                 6               10.28%
DPJ                 12               11                21.18%
SDP                  8                 6                  9.26%
Ind.                  7                 1                  3.48%
----------------------------------------------------------------
                                        60 seats total

Overall this election was a setback for LDP even as KP, DPJ and JCP gained ground from 2011.  The positive swing from 2011 for DPJ and negative swing for LDP from 2011 is more surprising given the continued fall in turnout from 40% to around 36%.  The LDP base is getting smaller relative to 2011.  It seems LDP knew that it would lose ground so it nominated less candidates than 2011 and as a result of gaining some votes from YP from 2011 the LDP only lost only one seat even as KP gained a seat.  KP only nominate candidates in local elections on sure things since that what KP really focuses on.  It would be a loss of face if KP nominated someone that did not end up winning.  So KP must have figured out that its fortunes was on the upswing for it to nominate 9 candidates instead of 8 in 2011.  The DPJ is almost back to 2007 levels of support since it was conservative in its nomination strategy (11 only versus 15 in 2011) DPJ won all 11 seats and its vote share most likely under-counted as it would have taken greater vote share had it nominated a couple of more candidates.  Had DPJ SDP and JCP nominated a couple of joint candidates they most likely could have taken away a couple of more LDP seats.   JIP and SC actually managed to capture a vote share similar to what YP captured in 2011 even as they could not replicate the seat count of YP in 2011.

So round one of the election test for LDP after the security bill became an issue has been a setback for LDP although KP growth made up for some of it.    If these results represent trends, one can expect more setback for LDP vote share relative to 2013-2014 and growth for DPJ and JCP votes share from the same period.

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Is a good chart that shows the Abe Cabinet approval rating over the last few months.  Note that 30% approval is labeled as the "danger threshold."

Yikes. I repeat what I said earlier:

We one usually hears from Abe high command is that they expect to stabilize approval rating at mid to high 30s for now.   Then Abe will run for LDP leadership in Sept 2015 and win.  Then he can reshuffle the cabinet to clean out a lot of dead wood and regain political capital that way.  They seem confident that Abe will enter 2016 in good shape and expect a solid victory in 2016.  The LDP seems to be fairly aggressive in its nomination strategy for 2016 Upper House elections which reflects this bullish view.

Abe has until 2018, right? Two three year stints as LDP president.

Right, although there's been some talk to the effect that he might try to change the party constitution to stay in longer. Even staying until 2018 would make him the second-longest serving postwar prime minister after Satō Eisaku.

Personally, I don't think he stays on very long past next year's upper house elections, but that's because I'm optimistic about both those elections and his sense of shame.

I doubt he changes the rules, too (even though they're inane). If he can even make it that long, I'll be very, very surprised.

Even if he does very well next year and rams constitutional revision through the Diet, I still think he probably resigns if/when the ensuing referendum fails.

Abe was heckled at the Hiroshima memorial.

The next set of electoral battles in Japan will center around Iwate (岩手).  The one of the current 岩手 Upper House MPs elected in 2013 平野達男 announced a few months ago his intention to resign from the Upper Hose to run for 岩手 governor in early September.  平野達男 is an old Ozawa crony being in the Liberal Party then followed Ozawa into DPJ but in 2013 won his seat in a 4 way battle beating the DPJ, LDP and Ozawa backed PLP candidate.   The current 岩手 governor 達増拓也 was elected in 2007 and 2011 with DPJ/Ozawa support.  Earlier it seems that 平野達男 decided to take LDP-KP support to try to unseat 達増拓也.  That seems to have provoked that opposition into a grand alliance to back 達増拓也 which seems to have gotten some JCP support.  With the polls showing a 達増拓也 landslide it seems today 平野達男 dropped out of the race which means that 達増拓也 will pretty much win by default.  We also have the 岩手 prefecture assembly election where DPJ and PLP should capture a majority over LDP-KP.   In October there will be an by-election to fill 平野達男's seat in  岩手 which the LDP-KP seems to be destined to lose as long as the opposition stays united.   In October we also have the 宮城県 and November 福島県 prefecture assembly elections.   In both these races if the drop in LDP support persists, it is possible that LDP-KP might be kept from their majorities in both these prefecture assemblies.  

Just saying jaichind, I find it interesting; but could you use the Latin alphabet? The random kanji symbols kind of make your text harder to read, especially in a Western forum.

I know I know.  I will try.  Problem is for many Japanese politicians (especially the non-famous ones) there does not seems to be easy way to get the official Latin version of the name that is why I use the raw form.

One of the basic core "problems" of Japanese politics since the end of the Cold War in 1990 is "How to defeat and perhaps even destroy LDP."  One can argue that there is no need for LDP after the end of the Cold War but LDP continued becoming a party whose job is to just get power.  Many even inside LDP are disturbed by this and there has been many different attempts inside and outside of LDP to figure out a way to defeat LDP but none of them seems to have worked for any durable basis, and at the local level there is zero success.

One reason it is so hard to defeat LDP is the rule "If you win you are LDP" where anyone that manages to win will be allowed inside LDP and be part of the power structure plus "all things equal LDP will be in power in all local positions all the time and in power almost all the time in the central government especially given the LDP-KP alliance."  Both logic reinforce each other.  True, LDP was beaten in 1993 and 2009 but their power at the local was never broken which paved the way for LDP to come back especially given the LDP's DNA of single minded goal of gaining power at all costs.  LDP control of local prefecture politics is critical since that is the farm league for local political power brokers to emerge and carry with it a personal vote which then could be transferred to LDP before during or after the local politician rise  to the top. 

The transformation of KP from a radical even radical leftist anti-LDP party of the 1960s to an moderate center-right but stable LDP partner is a critical part of the story.  The turning point is actually the infamous 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by Aum Shinrikyo.  After that there was a crackdown in Japan of all religious cults  and the  Soka Gakkai which is the real power behind KP was fearful that it might face the brunt of the anti-cult tide.  An alliance with LDP was critical to make KP and  Soka Gakkai appear mainstream and since the crackdown in cults was being handled by local prefecture governments, LDP unbroken domination of local governments especially when added by KP's very powerful footprint at local politics will from a firewall to protect  Soka Gakkai.  So what the KP get out this deal is respectability and what it gives to LDP is a reliable 12%-15% of the vote and tending to 15% in the lower turnout elections we are having today.

So even if LDP-KP is somehow beaten at the national level by some combination of DPJ-JIP a national election or two down the line, unless the LDP domination of prefecture politics is broken or the KP breaks of it alliance with LDP, the LDP will be back one way or another.  Most likely you will need both to keep LDP out for a while.

Could it occur from an attack on the dynastic nature of Japanese politics? Am I right in saying that most of the important politicians are children and grandchildren of the old elite?

Perhaps but note that the DPJ and JIP are also infested with second and third generation politicians so not sure why they would benefit from this.    Of course there is another factor to overcome, the JCP.  The JCP pretty much refuses to join forces with non-LDP opposition parities.  In Japan there are 2 cult parties, the KP and JCP.  The KP's voting base votes religiously (literally) for KP or whomever KP allies with which is always LDP.  JCP's voting base always votes with JCP which is NOT part of anti-LDP alliance.  In FPTP this setup is very advantageous to LDP.  In 2009 the JCP did decide to not run in 148 out of 300 FPTP seats and it was clear the the JCP voter was tactically voting for DPJ in many other seats.   This cost LDP about 30 FPTP seats.  The LDP would have lost even without tactical JCP support for DPJ in 2009 but it would have been a lot closer.  In almost all other cases JCP always runs a candidate and splits the anti-LDP vote.

埼玉 (Saitama) governor race tomorrow.  The incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda) who has a DPJ background has the upper hand.  Back in 2011 LDP KP and DPJ all backed Ueda against the JCP candidates. Ueda was first elected in 2003 in a bye-election defeating the LDP candidate although his victory was more based on the fact that the previous LDP governor had to resign over corruption charges.  LDP and KP took the approach of if you can beat them join them in 2007 and 2011 and backed Ueda.  This time around JIP backs Ueda and DPJ gives tacit endorsement to Ueda as well.  The LDP backed candidate 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu) has a bureaucracy background seems likely to win.  This is a rare defeat for LDP.  Saitama as a whole is bellwether prefecture but trending LDP and it is really a testimony of Ueda's personal popularity that the LDP will be defeated. At the local governor level it is rare that LDP is defeated, unless by a LDP rebel.

NHK exit polls show that in 埼玉 (Saitama) governor race, JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda) has won with about 55% of the vote.  The LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu) has a bit less than 25% of the vote and the JCP candidate has a bit less than 20% of the vote.  The LDP candidate is the strongest among voters in the 20s while the JCP candidate is the strongest among the voters in the 30s.  

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So far with 64% of the vote counted we have

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  59%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21%
JCP guy  15%

One of the reason I do not even bother posting the name of the JCP candidate is because since in almost all elections the JCP candidate cannot win anyway but can always get the core JCP vote so it always ends up being some JCP drone as the candidate.  It is also interesting that in almost all contests the JCP candidate is always the oldest candidate.  This is because this is Japan where Communists in Japan are more Japanese than Communists.  The candidate selection is based on hierarchy and seniority and not based on being electable or having charisma.  Besides they do not matter since as I mentioned before JCP cannot win anyway and will always get the core JCP vote even if they nominate a rock.  

Latest result with 93% of the vote counted we have

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  58.8%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21.2%
JCP guy  14.9%

Latest result with 98% of the vote counted we have

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  58.6%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21.3%
JCP guy  15.1%

One of the reasons why LDP lost so badly is because it broke the convention on prefecture governor elections.  Other than very high profile races (like Tokyo governor) the convention is that if there is a open seat for governor then LDP-KP will back a candidate, DPJ will back a candidate, JCP will back a candidate and the rest of the opposition parties will choose to back the LDP-KP or DPJ candidate.  One of the two mainstream candidates (LDP-KP backed or DPJ backed) will win (the LDP-KP backed candidate one almost all the time) and then when this sitting governor runs for reelection, all parties back the incumbent against the JCP candidate.  Of course this convention is self-serving since incumbents are rarely defeated.  So when the DPJ backed incumbent won an open seat in 2003, he won in 2007 and 2011 with LDP-KP support in addition to all other non-JCP parties as per convention.  LDP decided to break the convention in 2015 and got a bloody nose.  Of course the LDP will claim that the JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda) had passed an ordinance right after he was elected in 2003 that all 埼玉 (Saitama) governors should only stay for 3 terms which is something he is not violating.  Ueda claims that that ordinance was meant as a recommendation and not legally binding on anyone, including himself from running for a 4th term. 

Manichi poll has

Abe Cabinet approval 32/49

Party support

LDP          28
DPJ            9
JIP             6
KP             4
JCP            4


We also have

Nippon Poll

Abe Cabinet approval 38/47

Latest Japanese version of RCP average of Abe approval is (focus on the solid purple line as the average)

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Wait, do young voters commonly vote disproportionately for LDP, or is it a peculiarity of this race?

No, that is actually a general trend last decade or so. Noticed that JCP was strong in those in the 30s which meant that a decade ago JCP was very strong among those in the 20s.  The reason comes down to youth rebel culture.  Before a decade ago the target of youth rebellion was the LDP conservative consensus.  Now that is being replaced by the liberal pacifist consensus that now dominate academic circles.  Fear of the rise of PRC is of course a source of this shift as well.  The best example of this was the Tokyo Governor election of 2014 where Toshio Tamogami (田母神 俊雄) came out of nowhere to win 12.4% of the vote and exit polls showed that he won 25% of the youth vote in Tokyo.  Tamogami's main position was that Japan did not start the Pacific War which was really provoked by FDR and that the Pacific War was one of Japanese defense and not aggression.  

Final result

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  58.5%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21.1%
JCP guy  15.0%

One thing that is funny about Japanese exit polls is that given the high life expectancy, high turnout among the elderly, low child birth, and low turnout among the youth there is a separate age category for age 80+ in the exit polls.

Well, that's thoroughly depressing.

Bad news does not stop for Abe.  NHK poll

Abe Approval 37/46 - worst ever for Abe II.

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Party support

LDP     34.3
DPJ      10.9
KP         3.0
JIP        2.5
JCP       4.2
FPG      0.2
SDP      0.7

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LDP+KP at 37.3.  Rule of thumb for NHK polls that LDP+KP PR vote share wll be around 2% higher than what they collectively poll in NHK.  Given that this is not election season I would add something like 4%-5%.  But that leaves LDP+KP at around 42%, enough for a solid majority in 2016 Upper House elections but nowhere what Abe needs.  And if the opposition unites even this number might make LDP+KP struggle to do well.  Only consolation is that JCP wil also do well and split the anti-LDP vote.

Do jCP refuse to work with other parties under all circumstances like, say, KkE?

Pretty much.  With the exception of Okinawa where the anti-LDP forces tend to be more left wing than Mainland Japan.  When the JCP leadership is asked by the media on why they are doing this which seems to only benefit LDP they response is "not true, look at Okinawa" which is in theory true but that is 4 Lower House seats out of 275.  What about the other 271 seats? 

Off topic, but it's odd how the LDP is shown in red, while the DPJ shown in blue, despite their logo. Is this standard?

No. It's more common to show the DPJ in red or pink and the LDP in green.

Abe gave a much anticipated speech on the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender.  While he used various "right words" from diplomatic point of view "aggression" "apology" etc etc.  The consensus was that he just re-used the same words that previous Japanese PMs have used and from a diplomatic point of view did not achieve the goal of improving Abe's relations with PRC and ROK.  He also hinted that this ritual of Japanese apologies should stop as to not burden future generations of Japanese people and leaders.  I tend to agree with Abe for I am sure totally different reasons he has. It is time to move on and stop beating this dead horse.   

For me the core but unsaid issue from the Japanese point of view is "The war was a bad idea not because of the atrocities of which Japan is just like every other imperial power but it was the wrong war as it was a war Japan could not win."  Hence "it is an unfair humiliation for Japan to have to apologize to the Chinese and Koreans since it was the USA that defeated Japan and on the battlefield Japan was undefeated by the Chinese."  So "apologize to USA for Battaan Death March Yes, but comfort women No especially now our fears that PRC will become the dominate East Asian power will destroy our self-delusions that we remain undefeated as a Asian power."  These Japanese right could not say it but that is how they really feel inside and frankly I can see their point of view. 

Of course on the flip side the unsaid issue from the us Chinese point of view which is the mirror image "We need the Japanese to go above and beyond to apologize to make up for our own feelings of inadequacies going from being a top power to a third rate power over the last few centuries"   "We know we did not really beat the Japanese, a historically a power that is a tier below China, so it is even more critical that Japanese apologize extra to make up for that."  Of course no Chinese leader (PRC or ROC) will say this but this what is going on inside. 

So this latent conflict could not be solved with more or less apologies.

One other thing that is funny about this entire affair is the position of the Japanese Imperial family.  Even though Abe and the Japanese Right is trying to push a historical revisionist line to promote the power of the Japanese Emperor as a symbol and force to mobilize Japan into a Great Power, the Japanese Imperial family does not seem to want any part of it.  Both Emperor Akihito and Crown Prince Naruhito has made it quite known they are very much against what Abe is trying to do.  It is well known that the Imperial family and Abe does not get along on many topics, especially this one.  It is funny how in the world of Japanese culture of subtleties that the way Akihito  does this is go and give speeches about the need for embracing “correct” history.  Of course one then has to ask who is pushing an "incorrect" history?  It is clear who he is referring to. 

Yes, it was quite amusing to see the look on the Emperor's face when they held that "Sovereignty Restoration Day" Event last year, when the whole audience, Abe included, were Banzai-ing him. It was clear he was embarrassed and slightly uncomfortable with the whole display. However while the Crown Prince may share the father's views, but I've read that Prince Akishino tends to be more favorable to revisionist perspectives... and is second in line on top of his son and all.

It's surprised me with all this talk about constitutional revision that nothing's been said, aside from talk about making the Emperor formal head of state (FF), about improving the status of the Imperial Family in practical terms-- like allowing women to remain Princesses after marriage, which is a more serious issue than one might think, because the Geihinkan (Imperial Household Agency) is run by over-controlling ultraconservative ex-aristocrats who completely run the Imperial Family's lives. Hence ex-Princesses are completely cut off from their families, and commoner consorts looked down upon (even if a commoner are the only possible choice, considering the aristocracy and cadet branches were abolished in 1945) and mistreated severely enough to cause mental breakdown, as first happened to Empress Michiko and then more dramatically to Crown Princess Masako. I'd hope the Geihinkan would be reformed, for the sake of the Imperial Family.

It appears that many nationalists genuinely see the Emperor as more totem or symbol-- an institution, really-- worthy of glorification and reverence rather than an actual person with any personal agency or needs, which was essentially the view articulated by ultra-nationalists like Mishima. It would actually be the fairly logical result of centuries of shogunates where the imperial institution was maintained and honoured but the Emperor essentially irrelevant.

I wonder if any of the drafts propose making the Emperor Commander-in-Chief-- I suspect the Emperor would die of mortification if asked to don a uniform.

On various Japanese political discussion forums they are already posting predictions/projections of 2016 Upper House elections.  I tried to post there but was blocked since my IP is outside of Japan which makes it annoying as I would like to participate in those discussion as well.  Oh well.  Anyway I will first post what I think the medium/consensus of the PR vote/seats will look like on those sites.  It seems among Japanese political junkies they seem to predict a revival of LDP fortunes as well as a massive JCP surge.  I predict a lack of LDP recovery plus a more muted JCP surge.  Note that I put AEJ as the successor party to YP.  JRP of 2013 broke up with FPG being split out with a part of YP merging into JIP.

                  2013 results       Japanese political           My prediction
                                             forum consensus
                  vote     seat            vote      seat             vote      seat
LDP           34.7%    18           31.5%      16             28.0%    14
KP             14.2%      7           14.0%        7             14.0%      7
DPJ            13.4%     7           17.0%        8              20.0%    10
JRP/JIP      11.9%     6            13.5%        7             15.0%      7
PFG                                         2.5%         1               2.5%      1
YP/AEJ         8.9%     4            1.5%         0               1.5%     0
JCP              9.7%     5           14.5%        7             13.5%     7
PLP             1.8%      0             2.0%       1                2.0%     1
SDP             2.4%     1             2.5%       1                2.5%     1

Many predictions even has JCP at 8 seats which would mean something like 16% of the vote.  The Japanese political junkie consensus seems to be that polarization around Abe will benefit JCP which in turn will really benefit LDP-KP since DPJ and JIP will be squeezed out.  

I will soon post what the consensus in the FPTP seats relative to my predictions.

You can probably guess my views on things like this and the succession controversy pretty easily, so yeah, I'm entirely in agreement with this. If Abe ever felt like touching these issues I think he might actually do some good in terms of the position that the Imperial Family holds in Japanese life. He could make it more responsive and more closely tied to the nation without going fully down the British-style 'tabloid fodder' route. But he doesn't seem interested in that, or in the Imperial Family as people at all really. His attitude towards them is object-fetishist; it's practically obscene at times.

Abe could most likely find some supporters if he were to try to reform the Imperial family. Shame he seems adverse to doing popular things lately, though.

Abe's speech on the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender plus the external criticism of the speech had a rallying affect on his approval rating.  We will see how long this lasts 

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Election for Morioka (盛岡市) mayor this weekend.   Morioka, city of about 300K, is the capital of Iwate Prefecture (岩手県).   Iwate is pretty much the most anti-LDP prefecture with the possible exception of Okinawa.  The incumbent Tanifuji Hiroaki (谷藤裕明) is backed by LDP-KP and first won in 2003 beating the DPJ-SDP candidate.  As is the convention in 2007 the non-JCP parties did not nominate a candidate with Tanifuji easily beating the JCP backed candidate.  In 2011 in the aftermath of the earthquake the JCP did not nominate a candidate so Tanifuji won unopposed.  In the sprite of opposition cooperation this time around DPJ and PLP will nominate Uchidate Shigeru (内舘茂) to try to beat the LDP-KP and in a rare act, the JCP did not nominate a candidate to give the anti-LDP opposition a chance to beat the incumbent.    History and convention says that Tanifuji should have the upper hand.  On the other hand Iwate is fairly pro-DPJ/PLP territory plus the JCP will not run a candidate.  So this election this weekend will be another bellwether on the level of anti-incumbent opposition to Abe/LDP as well as the effectiveness of opposition unity.   

Comparison between my 2016 Upper house district seat versus Japanese political discussion board consensus.  

                                                Consensus                 My Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3             LDP DPJ NPD                     same
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  same
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP                                   same
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP                                  same
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  same
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                  same
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP                                  DPJ (tossup but I went with DPJ)
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                            same
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  same
群馬   Gunma            1             LDP                                  same
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                       same
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                     same
神奈川Kanagawa       4            LDP KP DPJ JCP                  same
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP                                  same
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ DPJ JCP    LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP JIP
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  same
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  same
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  same
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  same
長野   Nagano             1             LDP                                  same
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  same
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                            same
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP JK DPJ JCP                  LDP KP DPJ DPJ
三重   Mie                   1             DPJ                                   same
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP                                  DPJ
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP JCP                            same
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP JIP JCP                  same
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP JIP                        same
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  same
和歌山Wakayama       1             LDP                                  same
鳥取 Tottori                 
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                  same
岡山   Okayama          1             DPJ                                   same
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP JIP                             LDP DPJ
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  same
徳島   Tokushima   
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  same
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  same
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  same
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                       same
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  same
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                 same
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                 same
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP                                  same (tossup but I went with LDP)
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  same
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  same
沖縄   Okinawa           1             anti-LDP independent       same


My assumptions are

a) In Hokkaido DPJ and NPD work out a deal
b) JIP does not run in 1-seater and support DPJ even thought some JIP votes will go LDP but JIP will run in 2- 3- 4- and 6- seaters.
c) The old but popular DPJ incumbent in Okayama will run for reelection
d) The old but popular DPJ incumbent in Yamanashi will not run for reelection or else it will be a tossup between DPJ and LDP
e) AEJ and other post-YP parities/indpendents will run in places like Kanagawa, Chiba, and Tokyo where they have incumbents but no more then that.
f) Alliance between DPJ, PLP and SDP in district seats.
g) Grand anti-LDP alliance which includes JCP in Okinawa
i) PFG will mostly focus on PR seat and perhaps run in places like Tokyo but mostly stays out of district seats

There was no real consensus for Tokyo in the Japanese political discussion boards.  Everyone including me agree that out of 6, 5 of them will be LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP.  It is the last seat where people are split between DPJ AEJ or JIP.  AEJ and JIP share a significant base in Tokyo.  It really come down to if AEJ and JIP split this non-DPJ non-LDP/KP vote bloc evenly where DPJ will get in or will it break for one of the two in which case one of them will get in.  My guess is the JIP candidate will break in to the 6th.

There are strong minorities on the discussion boards that feel that JCP wil capture the 3rd Hokkaido
seat from DPJ backed NPD as well as the 3rd Saitama seat from DPJ.  Both seems unlikely to me given the size of the JCP base even as I agree that this base is most likely larger than 2014.

Most people in the Japanese discussion boards think that JIP will win the second Hiroshima seat and I do not see how that can happen.  The DPJ has an incumbent running and the DPJ base is larger than the JIP base.

I also feel that in Shiga, Fukushima, and Ōita the LDP is overestimated by the discussion boards and that DPJ have very strong chances to win in all 3, especially the first two.  Of course in Shiga JIP is strong as well so of course DPJ chances there are sunk if JIP runs a candidate.  

Likewise the Japanese discussion boards thinks that in the old DPJ heartland of Aichi the JCP will take the 4th seat from DPJ most based on perhaps SDP or TCJ (Tax Cuts Japan which is a Aichi DPJ local splinter party) splitting the DPJ base as well as poor vote allocation by DPJ.  I say that is true but the JIP candidate in Aichi will most likely be weak and while some JIP votes will go LDP others will go DPJ so DPJ takes the 4th seat.

Anyway a comparison between my projection of 2015 Upper House elections and the Japanese discussion board consensus are:


              Consensus
            PR             District        Total
LDP      16               43              59
KP         7                 7               14
DPJ       8                12              20
SDP      1                                    1
PLP       1                  1                2
JIP        7                  3              10
PFG      1                                    1
JCP       7                  5              12
AEJ                                            0
NPD                         1                1
Other                      1                 1
           48              73             121


Whereas I have

            PR             District        Total
LDP      14               41              55
KP         7                 7               14
DPJ      10                15              25
SDP       1                                    1
PLP        1                  1               2
JIP        7                  3              10
PFG       1                                    1
JCP        7                 4              11
AEJ                                            0
NPD                         1                1
Other                      1                 1
           48              73             121

It seems that Takuya Tasso (達増拓也) is re-elected as governor since no other contender filled candidacy.  The JCP had no plans to nominate a candidate based on a deal with DPJ-PLP to try to beat back a possible LDP-KP backed Tatsuo Hirano (平野達男).  But as I mentioned Tatsuo choose not to contest given how far behind he is in the polls so now Takuya will win by default.  It seems that  Iwate has joined Okinawa where JCP has decided to join in all opposition anti-LDP alliances.  If this takes place in other prefectures the LDP-KP might be in trouble.

It seems that Takaya Muto (武藤貴也), MP of Shiga (滋賀) 4th district has resigned from LDP due to a shady stock deal scandal.  He refused to resign from Diet. 

This script is typical.  In such cases and to save the party from embarrassment the politician (most of the time it is a LDP one) will resign from the party but often will not resign from the Diet.  Then, if the politician's local support group is still with him he will run as an independent next election and if he wins will rejoin the LDP as the election victory would have cleansed him.

This is the typical election result before the scandal that hits a LDP MP Mr A.

LDP  A        55%
Opposition  35%
JCP            10%

The after the scandal breaks if the candidates support organization controls the local LDP chapter, then the LDP will not nominate a candidate in the next election and de facto back MP A.  The election result would be

Ind A        50%
Opposition 40%
JCP           10%

But most of the time the district will have several LDP factions so Mr A will not control the LDP branch in which case the next election will be like

Ind A           30%
LDP             30%
Opposition   30%
JCP             10%

In which place it is anyone's game and in many cases A comes out the winner and he re-joins LDP. Usually MPs like Mr A's support group would cross parties so there will be significant number people in Mr A's support group that usually votes anti-LDP but would vote for A if he ran against LDP.  Likewise there are LDP voters that are anti-A that will vote for A but vote for the LDP candidate in such a re-election situation.

Of course for Takaya it is more complex.  In 2014 Shiga 4th it was

LDP    39
DPJ     26
JIP      26
JCP      9

If the next election Takaya runs for re-election as an independent and the anti-Takaya faction of the LDP nominate their official LDP candidate, the JIP and DPJ might forgo an alliance seeing a chance for themselves to win even if their vote is split.  It will become a 4 way shootout.  Most likely Takaya will end up winning especially when this district is fairly local to Takaya's family.  Takaya's father Mineichi Iwanaga (岩永峯一) was a MP in this district for many years and have a very solid support group/base.

There are signs that JIP might be headed for a split.  This is a long time coming.  One of the latest triggers is the Yamagata City mayoral race.

Yamagata City (山形市) capital of Yamagata(山形) with a population of 205K will have an election for mayor 9/13.  The current pro-LDP/KP incumbent is not running for re-election so it is an open seat.  The LDP-KP is backing Takahiro Sato (佐藤孝弘) while DPJ-SDP-PLP will back Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成).  The Abe push for new security bill polarized the opposition against the LDP-KP that even JCP then jumped on the bandwagon and decided to back Umezu.  Then Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途),  general secretary JIP and backed by JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) announced that JIP will also back Kakizawa  as part of an all out anti-LDP opposition grand alliance.    The JIP governor of Osaka Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎), who is often seen as a proxy for former JIP founder and leader Hashimoto, came out openly and violently against this move demanding that Kakizawa expelled from the JIP.  Toranosuke Katayama (片山虎之助), JIP member of the upper house also came out against  Kakizawa.  Note that  Toranosuke himself was from the LDP Far Right and part of the Sunrise Party (a proto-FPG.)  I was always confused on why  Toranosuke  did not join FPG when JRP split into JIP and PFG back in 2014.

Note that both Matsuno and Kakizawa have DPJ backgrounds (Matsuno went from DPJ->JRP->JIP while Kakizawa went from DPJ->YP->UP->JIP) and are NOT from Osaka.  Matsui of course was part of the original Hashimoto Osaka Restoration movement and then the national JRP.  The JIP is now in danger of splitting into a anti-LDP non-Osaka party followed by a pro-LDP or at least not anti-LDP Osaka party.  Of course if the Osaka party will be a more rightest pro-LDP party, it might as well merge with FPG while the non-Osaka JIP can continue on as a more rightist libertarian but anti-LDP opposition party.

Anyway, the Yamagata city election of 9/13 is going to be fun and a great showdown between LDP-KP versus an all opposition alliance. 

One more step in the breakup of JIP.  The Osaka based local party Osaka Restoration Association (大阪維新の会) announced the creation of the Kansai Restoration Association (関西維新の会) which will be active in the Kinki (近畿) region.   The  Kansai Restoration Association will still be a regional party which does not conflict with the JIP which is a national party and will be led by governor of Osaka Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎).  But this is clearly a move by former JIP leader Hashimoto to start carving out a piece of JIP that he can control.  Of course Hashimoto claimed after losing the Osaka referendum that he will retire from politics.  But it he can later claim that he meant that he will retire from regional politics and not from national politics.  In such a case the Kansai Restoration Association could go national and led by Hashimoto leaving a rump JIP which has some influence outside of Kinki and made up of centrist and center-right ex-DPJ/YP members.  On the short run, the leadership election of JIP is coming up in Nov 2015.  Hashimoto/Matsui plans must be to to try to use   Kansai Restoration Association as a organization to capture the leadership of JIP by Matsui.  If that succeeds then there is no need to split the JIP.  If that fails then  Kansai Restoration Association will split from JIP and go national and led by either Matsui or Hashimoto.  Either way Hashimoto will be the real leader of this movement. 

Hashimoto lingers like a bad smell.

Also this is immensely, immensely disturbing news with respect to the upper house elections.

Turnout was 51%.  DPJ-PLP candidate Uchidate  failed to unseat Tanifuji losing around 43-57.  This  is actually a fairly close result given that Tanifuji is the incumbent.  This is because JCP and JIP also implicitly backed  Uchidate  but in the end it was not good enough to overcome incumbency. 

Abe's bounce (dead cat or otherwise) confirmed.

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Perhaps.  Of course we have to see how things plays out.  A de factor Kansai Restoration Association (KRA) alliance with LDP-KP for sure would be powerful but there would be plenty of flies in the ointment.  For one thing, the Osaka LDP has a vitriolic hatred of Hashimoto and ORA or now KRA.  One benchmark would be the upcoming election of mayor of Osaka to be held on 11/18.  This election would be to fill Hashimoto's role since he will be retiring from politics, so he says. Of course Hashimoto/KRA would want a Hashimoto loyalist to fill that spot.   But a local Osaka LDP heavyweight Yanagimoto Akira (柳本顕) who help lead the grand anti-Hashimoto LDP-DPJ-JCP alliance against the Osaka referendum back in May has also thrown his hat into the ring setting up a LDP vs KRA battle. It is hard to have a de facto LDP KRA alliance, tacit or not, when the two camps are battling it out for Osaka mayor.

The number of splits and mergers of the non-LDP right over the last three years is staggering and demoralizing for someone like me who is for the right but overall opposed to LDP.  Parties that I actually liked like YP and now the JIP all seem to be falling apart due to internal factional splits.   Pretty soon I might have a Freudian slip and start referring to them as the Judean People's Front by mistake.

People's Front of Judea!

With Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途) refusing to resign as General Secretary of JIP as demanded by Osaka governor and also "Adviser" (a role in a Japanese political party which are given to elder party leaders) of JIP  Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎) is threatenting to resign himself as "Adviser" of JIP.  Hashimoto which holds "Highest Adviser" title in JIP also hinted that he might resign from the role of "Highest Advisor" of JIP.  But there seems no sign that Kakizawa is backing down.  It seems he is backed by JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) as well as former co-leader of JIP Kenji Eda (江田憲司). Kenji has a LDP background but help found the YP and created a YP anti-LDP splinter UP which he then merged with JRP to form JIP.  He resigned back in May when Hashimoto resigned.  He most likely saw something like this coming and did not want to confront Hashimoto directly so he also resigned to counter Hashimoto's moves without exposing himself directly. It is well known that Kakizawa is a protege of Kenji.

It seems that Hashimoto/Matsui are acting this way because they figure they will not be able to muscle up a majority in the JIP MPs.  Only a minority of the JIP MPs are from Osaka and have a ORA background.  The rest have a YP, DPJ and a bunch even have a PLP background.  There as a couple of JIP MPs that have a Sunrise Party of Japan (SPJ) background which really should have joined PFG but should be expected to back Hashimoto.  Still that gives the Hashimoto bloc still a minority status among the JIP MPs.  So threatening to blow up the entire party might be a way to regain control given his minority status.

Osaka governor Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎) resigns from JIP.  He also claims that Hashimoto will resign from JIP.  It looks likw the next step would be for KRA to split off from JIP.  Note that Matsui also resigned back in May from the role of Governor of Osaka after the failure of the Osaka referendum along with Hashimoto who resigned from the mayor of Osaka.  There is talk that ORA, now KRA, might run Matsui himself for mayor of Osaka to try to hold that seat from the LDP.

Hashimoto sent an email to JIP resigning from the role of "Supreme Adviser" and from the JIP party.  He said that he still wants his supporters to stay in JIP and that he was leaving as he feels the JIP leadership was to focused on Tokyo based political maneuvering as opposed to true reform at the local level.  He said he and  Osaka governor Matsui Ichiro (松井一郎) will resign from JIP to focus on Osaka local politics and the upcoming elections for Osaka mayor and governor in November.   In a reversal from Matsui's position Hashimoto indicated that Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途) should not resign as General Secretary of JIP and that he wanted JIP to stay united.

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Kakizawa (the one bowing while standing) and  JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) (sitting) at the meeting with JIP MPs announcing Hashimoto's email.

Another scandal broke for Takaya. 

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A news report says that one of the reasons Takaya has been scamming money via shady stock deals is that he has been using a very high priced 19 year old male prostitute.   This is not looking good for LDP, Takaya being in LDP or not.

Assuming Hashimoto is sincere, this is a refreshingly gracious course of action for him.

The JIP Osaka based MPs had a separate meeting to discuss if they should leave JIP and join OKA.  It was inconclusive as they seems to be divided.  None of them will leave JIP for now and will continue discussing the issue.

The main conflict here is that Hashimoto looks at politics from an Osaka point of view while the current JIP leadership looks at it through a Tokyo/National point of view.  For Hashimoto the Osaka LDP is the enemy along with Osaka DPJ and Osaka JCP.  The Osaka KP has pro- and anti- Hashimoto factions. In 2011 Osaka mayor race the Osaka LDP Osaka DPJ and Osaka JCP ganged up on Hashimoto to try to beat him which failed.  On the other hand Hashimoto has generally positive relationship with the national LDP and KP but due to the bad blood between Hashimoto and the Osaka LDP there can be no real de facto Hashimoto LDP alliance but only tacit cooperation on issues of interest. But Hashimoto is against any de jure alliance with DPJ or JCP as he sees them as enemies as well and it will hurt his desire to steer JIP in the middle between LDP-KP and DPJ. 

The real solution which is not possible since the evolution of the party system is path dependent is for ORA/KRA to become the LDP in Osaka.  The current Osaka LDP and anti-Hashimoto Osaka KP become the Osaka JIP.  That way the JIP can become a center-right opposition that can have tactical and even formal anti-LDP alliances with DPJ and even JCP.

PFG is also headed for a split.  PFG founder and leader Hiranuma Takeo (平沼赳夫) is not running for reelection of PFG due to the poor 2014 election result of PFG.  Both PFG General Secretary and Upper House MP Matsuzawa Shigefumi (松沢成文) and Upper House MP Nakayama Kyoko (中山恭子) are running.  

Nakayama is the wife of former MP and also FPG member Nakayama Nariaki (中山成彬).  The Nakayama couple were in LDP and joined Hiranuma's Sunrise Party of Japan before joining JRP and then PFG.  Matsuzawa was part of the Ozawa's movement back in the 1990s then moved to DPJ where he was elected as as DPJ MP.  He then was elected governor of  Kanagawa (神奈川) with DPJ support defeating the LDP candidate but also had support from Tokyo governor Ishihara in 2003.  After becoming governor he drifted away from DPJ and gravitated toward Ishihara.   He resigned in 2011 as governor of Kanagawa to run for governor of Tokyo as Ishihara's heir but called of his campaign when Ishihara decided to run for re-election.  He than ran in 2012 for Tokyo governor after Ishihara resigned to join JRP but was defeated by the pro-LDP candidate.  He then was elected Upper House MP as a YP candidate.  After YP fell apart in 2014 he joined FPG given that Ishihara is there.  

Matsuzawa seeing that he will most likely lose now especially when his main benefactor Ishihara has retired from politics is saying he will quite PFG as he does not agree with the leadership of Nakayama.   Now Nakayama will be elected as leader of PFG unopposed. 

Some good news for embattled JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) with JIP falling apart and all.

His second daughter Matsuno Mika (松野未佳)
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Made it into the final round of Miss Japan contest.

The breakup of JIP continues.  It seems former co-leader of JIP Eda Kenji(江田憲司) meet with Okada Katsuya (岡田 克也) along with current JIP leader Matsuno Yorihisa  (松野頼久) meet just last night and agreed on closer opposition cooperation against LDP-KP.  Also discussed was the prospect of a DPJ-JIP joint candidates in the 2016 Upper House elections.  None of this would be acceptable to Hashimoto.

Meanwhile late last night Hashimoto spoke to supporters where he made it clear that after the Osaka Mayor and Governor elections in November there would be a need for a new national political party based on ORA.   Of course this begs the question of "For a guy that is retiring from politics, Hashimoto seems to planning a lot of activities in politics next few months."

Actions of both Hashimoto camp and Matsuno camp seems to be feeding off each other toward a accelerated split.  Hashimoto had another meeting with a 12 Osaka based JIP MPs where he said that now he planned to form a new national party around ORA in October.  He said that this was his last political act before he retires.  All 12 MPs pledged to join this new party and lobby the 10 other Osaka based JIP MPs to join this  new party who are currently neutral.  Meanwhile  it is said that JIP leader Matsuno will meet with DPJ leader Okada Monday and the topic of discussion will be the possible merger of JIP (of what is left of it) with DPJ.

The current JIP MPs are made up of Osaka based MPs (which will mostly go with Hashimoto), those with DPJ background (mostly go with Matsuno to join DPJ if that is what is worked out), those with YP background (some might merge with AEJ but will go with what former YP splinter UP leader and then JIP co-leader Eda does which is most likely merge with DPJ), those with PLP background (most likely join merger into DPJ although some might re-join PLP), those with Sunrise Party of Japan background (most likely merge with FPG although some might go with Hashimoto), and a couple of more with Political Group of Okinawa Revolution (despite its name is really a conservative but anti-LDP party in Okinawa) background (the founder of this party joined JIP so this party might get reactivated but allied with DPJ given how unpopular LDP is now in Okinawa.) 

Looking at the 51 JIP MPs, I can break down their background into this chart
(PGOR is Political Group of Okinawa Revolution, SPJ is Sunrise Party of Japan)
 
                   Upper House              Lower House
PGOR                  1                                1
YP                       6                                9
Osaka                 2                               11
LDP                                                      3
DPJ                     1                                9
PLP                                                       4
SPJ                     1                                3

Note: One of YP Upper house is really pro-YP.  One DPJ lower house is pro-DPJ.   For the YP background MPs, 3 Upper House MPs and 2 Lower House went from LDP to YP (including the YP background JIP leader Eda), 2 Lower House MPs went from DPJ to YP (including JIP General Secretary and center of the entire storm  Kakizawa.  JIP leader Matsuno has DPJ background.  One of the Osaka background Upper House MP is really not based from Osaka but is are so aligned with Hashimoto that I am just counting him as Osaka background.

So if 12 Osaka MP attended the Hashimoto meeting last night and pledged to join the new Hashimoto Party it must be from the 13 MPs of Osaka background.  It is said that the Hashimoto could have up to 20 MP members.  If so then it must be the 13 MPs with Osaka background, 3 with LDP background, and 4 with SPJ background which would make it 20.

If Eda who is de facto leader of the YP bloc and Matsuno who is JIP leader but also leads the DPJ bloc are for merger with DPJ looking at the numbers they can make it happen.  I am sure the PLP bloc will be fine with that too since PLP is just a DPJ splinter.

Mayor election for the Osaka Prefecture city of Hirakata (枚方市) with a population of well over 400K  was today.  The pro-LDP mayor is running for reelection.   It is a test of Hashimoto popularity as it is another everyone gang up against ORA.   It is ORA's Fushimi Takashi (伏見隆) versus LDP-DPJ-KP backed incumbant Takeuchi Osamu (竹内脩) which also has tacit JCP support.   LDP rebel Namba Hideya (難波 秀哉) is also running.  The exit polls show a near tie between Fushimi and Takeuchi although the breakdown by party is interesting.

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In the end it was  Fushimi winning

Fushimi   44.3%
Takeuchi  42.4%
Namba      7.6%

It seems that Namba took a bunch of LDP votes but Fushimi also took a bunch of LDP votes leading to his victory despite the fact that ORA voters are only 26% of voters and LDP DPJ KP and JCP are 25% 9% 7% and 4% of exit voters.  A victory of Hashimoto over the everyone else in Osaka gang up on Hashimoto (LDP DPJ KP JCP).

Oh yeah, while all this is taking place, Japan had the largest anti-security protests ever.  There were anti-security anti-Abe demonstrations with the largest in Tokyo outside the Diet with a 120K person demonstration.  This will not make much of a difference.  Abe cabinet approval rating is stabilizing and headed up due to his speech on the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII for Japan.  The Upper House will pass the bills. 

Do you mean anti-military?

Sorry I meant anti-security bill protests.

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Abe cabinet approval continues to recover.  Although I suspect in a month or so if not early it will start dipping again as the affect of the 70 anniversary of end of WWII speech wears off and scrutiny bills continues to be an issue.

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Nice summery of the history of the "Hashimoto parties"

How likely are DPJ open to JIP merging into DPJ and how likely are the YP/DPJ/PLP members willing to merge into DPJ?  From a game theory point of view we have look at it from the gains/benefits of the 2016 Upper House elections.  Currently there are 4 JIP upper house PR MPs that are up for re-election in 2016 which are in the DPJ/YP/PLP background camp of JIP. 

DPJ has to be willing to accommodate them in their party list and be high enough to be elected.  But for that to be true, merging JIP into DPJ must ad 8% more vote share for the DPJ  in the PR section for DPJ to break even. 

How likely will the DPJ/YP/PLP background JIP merged into DPJ add to DPJ's vote share?  A united JIP won  15.7% of the vote in 2014 Lower House election on the PR section.  Lets assume that in Osaka the DPJ/YP/PLP gets 10% of the JIP vote share, 20% of other Kinki prefectures where Hashimoto has influence, and 70% of the JIP vote in the rest of Japan since the Hashimoto JIP is an explicit Osaka based party and less likely to pull in votes in the rest of Japan.  That will give the  DPJ/YP/PLP bloc of JIP around 9% of the vote.  So on that assumption a DPJ/YP/PLP JIP merger will be a net gain.  Of course DPJ/YP/PLP JIP might just continue on as JIP or another name and get that 9% for itself while forming alliances with DPJ in district seats.  I guess that is being debated within the DPJ/YP/PLP JIP right not along with DPJ.

The current rumor are the the JIP MPs that are Osaka, SPJ, LDP and PGOR will go with Hashimoto and the remaining will stay.  The remaining, which are YP/DPJ/PLP background has not decided to merge with DPJ or continue and form an alliance with DPJ at the district level.

I guess the idea is the LDP will not take back LDP background MPs, SPJ background MPs can join PFG but that party is good for 2.5%-3% of the vote so that is a dead-end.  The PGOR background MPs might go with JIP and merger with DPJ but the problem is that PROG is a center-right Okinawa regional party party while DPJ has an alliance with PLP, OSMP (center-left Okinawa regional party) and JCP.  So PGOR might be fine with merger with DPJ but have issues with alliance with JCP or OSMP.  So going with Hashimoto might be a better option.  Splitting out as PGOR has the flaw that PGOR can never be viable to win PR seats in Upper or Lower House elections.

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Another fun picture of players of JIP what what their relationship are like with other parties.

The DPJ wants the DPJ/YP/PLP backgroup rump JIP to merge into DPJ just like Ozawa's Liberal Party merged into DPJ back in 2003.  The JIP wants both parties to dissolve and form a new party which other opposition parties like PLP, AEJ or even SDP could them merge into this new party.

Katayama Toranosuke (片山 虎之助) of JIP who has a SJP (Sunrise Party of Japan) background announced that he will join Hashimoto's new party.  This is the first JIP MP outside of the Osaka background MPs to make this announcement.  This means the SJP background JIP MPs will most likely all join Hashimoto's new party and not instead join FPG.

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Current status of where JIP MPs will go

DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP and AEJ plan to cooperate to block the enactment of new security bills in a meeting of the heads of all 6 parties.  They sem to want to fill a no-confidence motion against Abe.  Who votes against Abe from JIP will give us clear ideas which side which JIM MP will go with as the pro-Hashimoto JIP MPs will most likely abstain than to vote against Abe. 

Also Iwate (岩手) Prefecture assembly elections this weekend.   The opposition alliance of DPJ-PLP-SDP-JCP will make the security bills an issue to continue anti-LDP opposition majority in this Prefecture assembly which makes it pretty much the only such assembly other than Okinawa.

What Hashimoto says and does recently does not make sense. First he resigns from JIP but says he does not want to split JIP.  Then the next day he announces he will form a new national party.  Then we hear rumors that the new national party will be called Osaka Restoration Association with an agenda of pushing the merger of Osaka City and Osaka Prefecture along with Osaka autonomy.  Only problem is this new alleged name and platform does not sound particularly national.   Then Hashimoto says that this new party will contest in every constituency in next year's Upper House elections.  My question is why would someone in, say, Hokkaido, vote for a party call Osaka Restoration Association with a platform about Osaka autonomy?  It seems that such a national party should be an alliance of the ORA and other center-right opposition forces in the rest of Japan.  But wait, that is exactly what JIP but Hashimoto claims that it is no good because it focuses too much on Tokyo based national politics and yet he still wants to form a new national party.

There are more rumors that Hashimoto will run for the Upper House in 2016.  When asked about it he said that is a decision for the future.  So much for retirement from politics.  What is also funny about this is that Hashimoto used to, I think still does, have the political position that the Upper House should be abolished.

Iwate (岩手) Prefecture assembly election results coming in.  LDP will most likely flat or losing a seat in terms of seats and down a bit in terms of vote share relative to 2011.

Iwate (岩手) Prefecture assembly election results and comparison to 2011.


2011

I included LDP backed independents with LDP and DPJ backed independents with DPJ
IRP stands for 地域政党岩手 (Iwate Regional Party.)  It is a center-left regional party but is anti-Ozawa and as a result did form tactical alliances with LDP.

Turnout 52.8%

                   Contested   Won    Vote%
LDP                18           13      24.64%
KP                    1             1        1.62%
IRP                  7             4       10.98%
DPJ                34            24      49.41%
SDP                 4              3       5.53%
JCP                  3              2       4.45%
YP                   1               0       0.95%
Independent    4              1       2.42%


2015

Since 2011 Ozawa split the DPJ creating PLP.  Then DPJ SDP PLP JCP formed a anti-LDP opposition alliance in response to Abe's pushing for new security bills which was created by Ozawa.  The anti-Ozawa parts of the remaining DPJ merged with IRP to form  ICC (Iwate Citizen's Club)  岩手県民クラブ which should also be seen as a center-left anti-Ozawa tactical ally of LDP.  DPJ SDP PLP and JCP also decided to back a bunch of independents with various DPJ SDP PLP backgrounds as anti-LDP United Front candidates.    For ICC I included the pro-ICC independents.  The grand anti-LDP United Front alliance independent candidates I put under Ind-UF.  

Turnout 46.0%

                   Contested   Won    Vote%
LDP                16           13      21.38%
KP                    1             1        1.89%
ICC                  8             6       14.36%
DPJ                  5             5         7.70%
PLP                  9             6       16.18%
SDP                 3              2        6.13%
Ind-UF           15            11      21.86%
JCP                  3              3        7.03%
Independent    3              1        3.48%

LDP seat share stayed the same but lost vote share.   ICC was able to capture the anti-Ozawa center-left vote.  Many of the pro-Ozawa candidates ran as Ind-UF.  So in terms of vote share this a wash from 2011.  Some LDP lost some votes due to security bills and center-left votes were lost to ICC due to anti-Ozawa feelings in some center-left circles.  As usual is the trend recently, JCP continues to surge.  The independents are mostly made up for DPJ or ICC rebels with the one independent that won is an ICC rebel.  Given the continued domination of the pro-Ozawa parities in the legislature, I expect ICC to form tactical alliances with LDP just like IRP did after 2011.

In the end, Ozawa who worked to create this united front can claim some sort of victory by pushing down the vote share of the LDP-KP but he will have to accept that the market for the center-left anti-Ozawa vote is also expanding so he is emerging as an impediment to an opposition grand alliance against LDP.

Yamagata City (山形市) election is this weekend of 9/13.  After the Iwate Prefectural assembly elections this is billed as the next showdown that could affect how the vote in the Upper House on the security will go.  The LDP-KP candidate Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) is also being backed by the hawkish PFG and NPR.  Wile the DPJ-SDP-PLP-JCP candidate  Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成) is tacitly backed by non-Hashimoto part of JIP.   The opposition is billing this vote as a referendum on Abe's attempt to pass the new security bills

Back in 2011 it was

DPJ-SDP-JCP backed incumbent with tacit KP support 49.5
LDP candidate                                                           38.2
independent with LDP background                             12.3

This time around the sharp contrast between ruling and opposition camps is much more polarized.

JIP leader Matsuno, in an attempt to regain control of the party, and win over the wavering middle,  remove 3 JIP MPs from their leadership positions.  He removed Kakizawa Mito (柿沢未途) as General Secretary for provoking the conflict which led to the departure of Hashimoto to try to win over the YP background members of the JIP to stay.  He also removed Baba Nobuyuki (馬場伸幸) as JIP Diet affairs Chief and Katayama Toranosuke (片山 虎之助) as head of the JIP caucus in the Upper House.  It has been clear that both Baba and Katayama will defect to Hashimoto's new party so it makes no sense to keep them in the leadership group to disrupt the JIP from within.  Matsuno is trying to keep as many MPs as possible so he has the negotiation power to work out a favorable deal with DPJ on an alliance or merger.

NTV  Poll which had

Abe Cabinet Approval at 39/43

Do you support Hashimoto's actions in splitting JIP and creating a new party

Yes          29.9%
No           50.3%
Not sure  19.3%

Do you have any positive expectations of Hashimoto's new party

Yes           30.0%
No            58.9%
Not sure   11.1%

Too bad there are no cross-tabs to see if the 30% or so that has positive views of Hashimoto are mostly LDP supporters or not as I suspect it is.  If a good portion of that 30% are from the non-LDP bloc then next years Upper House elections will be very positive for LDP-KP.

Yamagata City (山形市) mayoral election tomorrow.   The DPJ-SDP-PLP-JCP candidate  Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成) is pretty much running 100% on the security bill issue while the LDP-KP candidate Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) is pretty much avoiding the issue.  While public opinion is on the side of the opposition on the security bill issue the  DPJ-SDP-PLP-JCP strategy of trying to tie a national issue to a race for mayor might backfire. 

One way or another the LDP-KP plan is to pass the new security bills in the Upper House 9/17 or 9/18.  This might get delayed by a day or two due to the joint opposition DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP and AEJ vote of no confidence motion.  But if the LDP-KP could not get through the procedural hurdles to pass the Upper House then Abe has to either give up this year and try next year or have the Lower House override the Upper House with its 2/3 majority.  This act of using the 2/3 majority is rare and Abe would most likely want to avoid this. 

If  Umezu wins tomorrow it will give the DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP AEJ bloc the excuse and claimed mandate to block the LDP-KP attempts to get the security bill up for a vote.

Latest on JIP split.  It seems so far 17 out of 51 MPs will join the Hashimoto new party which I assume is the Osaka background MPs and most of the Sunrise and LDP background MPs.  24 will stay on with JIP which they know will mean alliance or even merger with DPJ which I assume are those with DPJ PLP background MPs plus those with YP background which were not originally from LDP.  10 seems to be on the fence which I assume are remainder of those MPs of YP background plus PGOR background are said to consider a third way, which would really mean something like merge into AEJ.

Yamagata City (山形市) mayoral election voting done.  Turnout is 57.5%, 10% higher than 4 years ago.  So the nationalization and polarization is having an affect.

Exit polls show LDP-KP backed Sato Takahiro 佐藤孝弘 having the edge.

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The margins seems big enough to be sure that Sato did win.

With about 34% of the vote counted it is a virtual tie between Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) and Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成).  But given the exit polls projecting a Sato win of 5%-10% Sato should pull it out.

56% of the vote counted.  Still virtual tie of around 49.5-49.5 between Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘) and Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成).  It seems that the exit polls overestimated the independent Igarashi (五十嵐右二) making the race much closer than the the exit polls projected.  Still Sato should still have the advantage.

Cross tabs on exit polls by party supporter. 

As expected LDP supporters which make up 43% of the electorate backed Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘)
while DPJ with 18% of the electorate backed Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成)
Independents which make up 30% of the electorate tilts Umezu. 
I do not buy that only 2% of voters are KP supporters.  I suspect around 10% of the 30% of the electorate that claims to be independent are really KP supporters but does not want to disclose it to exit pollsters.

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94% of the vote counted. Still virtual tie at around 48.6-48.6.

Looks like Sato wins by a tiny margin.  Exact vote count not out yet.

Sort of final results

Sato Takahiro (佐藤孝弘)        49.1%
Umezu IsaoNaru  (梅津庸成)   47.6%
Igarashi (五十嵐右二)                3.3%

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Looks like the independent had a late surge making the results somewhat bigger than the count indicated.  Still a lot closer than the 5%-10% win by Sato as indicated by exit polls.

Not sure what the opposition bloc  DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP and AEJ  will do now in the Upper House to block the new security bill since they billed this election as an referendum.  Looks like now Abe will get his way one way or another and the bill will pass.

The exit polls also shows a large majority of voters oppose the security bills 37-63 but I guess LDP-KP attempt to keep the race about local issues won out in the end.

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The battle between Abe and Okinawa governor Onaga Takesh (翁長雄志) continues over the US Futenma base relocation.  Talks between the central government and the Okinawa government broke down Sept 9th and right after Abe was re-elected unopposed as LDP President, the Abe cabinet announced it was going ahead with work on the USA base relocation effort. NHK reports that Onaga plan to announce today his intention to cancel permit his predecessor granted that allows U.S. relocation of Futenma base.  This represents another level of escalation.

A bunch of polls came out on Abe Cabinet approval.  It was a mixed bag but overall it shows that Abe approval did recover but the assent is petering out in the low 40s.    Again, focus on the purple line for the psudo-RCP like average.

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NHK also came out with party support for Sept.  LDP-KP gained around a point.

LDP        34.7
DPJ          9.8
KP           3.7
JIP           1.3
JCP          4.0
PFG         0.1
SDP         0.6
PLP          0.2
AEJ          0.0

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Again, rule of thumb is LDP+KP will get if election is called NHK vote share plus about 2% right before the election.  So NHK LDP+KP = 38.4%.  Since this is not election season so the polls are less polorized it is more reasonable to add 4%-5% which would put it at 43%.  The rule of thumb for NHK for DPJ is to perform a about double of NHK support.  So DPJ should be around 20% of an election is taking place today.

Security bills close to being passed.  LDP-KP made a deal with AEJ to make some adjustments which got AEJ support for the security bills.  DPJ-JIP-PLP-SDP-JCP last move is to move a motion of no confidence for Abe to delay the bill being passed.  This vote will test which MPs of the JIP will go with Hashimoto or stay in JIP and onward to alliance or merger with DPJ.

Security bill passes Upper House 148 vs 90.  It seems that LDP KP AEJ PFG NPR MP voted yes for the bill while DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP MPs voted no.  It seems that all JIP MPs followed the whip and voted NO or abstained even as some of them will most likely end up defecting to Hashimoto's new party.

I've been a DPJ fanboy for years but their opposition to this bill is unacceptable. Its not 1951 anymore, and the sooner they realize that, the better.

Did they only vote no because the current bill is so unpopular? I seem to recall them wanting to assist the US militarily during their brief, glorious reign from 2009-2012.

The LDP still sucks though.

what

It was a joke.

I should have said I have a raging clue for the DPJ.

After the security bills passed the Abe cabinet approval ratings are falling again.

Kyodo News poll has 38.9/50.2
Mainichi News poll has 35/50
Yomiuri News poll has 41/51
Ashai News poll has 35/45
Nikkei News poll has 40/47

All these polls are about -3 to -5 in terms of approval of Abe Cabinet from the previous poll

All questions on support for the security law seems to have support around the low to mid 30s.

Running average of Abe Cabinet approval once all these post-security law passage polls are taken into account.  The 70 anniversary of WWII Abe speech bounce seems to have dissipated for the obvious reason that the new security bill and now law took center stage again.

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The passage of the new security law seems to have triggered a change in strategy in the JCP which could trigger a significant realignment in the nature of party competition in Japan.   In the Central Committee meeting of the JCP yesterday it seems a resolution was passed to pursue JCP-DPJ cooperation for the goal of repealing of the new security laws up to and including electoral alliance on a broad basis versus a rare and localized basis depending on local conditions. 

DPJ leader Okada Katsuya (岡田 克也) responded positively to the JCP proposal for electoral cooperation and possible alliance to defeat the ruling alliance.   Okada pointed that in the 2009 elections the JCP only contested 152 out of 300 FPTP seats which greatly helped the DPJ.  While I totally agree that DPJ-JCP alliance in single member FPTP seats in Lower and Upper House elections would be quite a game changer, I would dispute the impact of JCP running in only 152 seats in 2009 as opposed to its usual practice of running in every seat.  Looking district by district in the 2009 Lower House elections, and even taking into account some JCP tactical voting seats that JCP, the DPJ led alliance only won an extra 21 FPTP seats as a result of non-JCP or unusually low JCP participation.  But in 2009 out of the 300 FPTP seats the DPJ led alliance won 228 seats versus 64 for LDP-KP-NPR.  So even if we shifted these 21 seats from the DPJ alliance to LDP-KP-NPR the DPJ led alliance would have still won a large majority.  In 2009 the Japanese electorate was determined to throw out LDP come hell or high heaven.  What the JCP did only added to a rout.   

japan has apparently banned public universities from teaching social sciences, humanities, and law…? (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-20/japan-dumbs-down-its-universities-at-the-wrong-time)

WTF.. sounds crazy. Must be a little more complicated than that. They gotta at least keep producing recruits for their legal system.

I can't help but feel like whoever wrote that article is missing part of the story. All of the top universities in Japan, to say nothing of universities in general, are public. So they are supposed to stop teaching economics, law, political science...? I get this they want more people to major in math and the hard sciences, as does practically every other country, but this is the kind of policy response you'd expect from an incompetent third-world government, not Japan. I mean, seriously, where do they expect to get lawyers or economists from, at the very least?

There has to be something pretty big that we're missing here.

The Time article is clearer.

It's not a ban, it's rather a request than universities were free to follow. Of the 60 universities, 34 totally refuse any changes (including the 2 most prestigious), 17 abolish those programs, 9 will abolish elective courses in those programs to force students to take "more practical" electives.

http://time.com/4035819/japan-university-liberal-arts-humanities-social-sciences-cuts/ (http://time.com/4035819/japan-university-liberal-arts-humanities-social-sciences-cuts/)

For the 11/22 Osaka city mayor and Osaka prefecture governor races, ORA will nominate current JIP MP Yoshimura Hirofumi (吉村洋文) for mayor and re-nominate current governor Matsui Ichirō (松井一郎).  Matsui had said he will not run for re-election due to defeat in the Osaka merger referendum but now it seems he will run for re-election.   I guess Hashimoto will also not honor his promise to retire from politics.  Most likely Hashimoto will go national and run in the 2016 Upper House election leading his new national party based on ORA.

well, that's somewhat of a relief

It's still sickening.

Looks like we are getting close to the end of FPG.  Both FPG founder and ex-leader  Hiranuma Takeo (平沼赳夫) and FPG heavyweight Sonoda Hiroyuki (園田博之) who recently left FPG to lead a revived Sunrise Party only to merge it back into FPG again will both leave FPG, most likely both back top LDP.  These two PFG members were the only FPG MPs that won their own districts in the 2014 Lower House elections.  This leaves PFG with only 5 MPs, all in the Upper House.  2 of them will be up for re-election in 2016 and PFG can win 1 seat on PR at most.  So after that PFG will not have enough members to form a Parliamentary Caucus which comes with it government subsidies.   Seeing this I suspect FPG members will most likely merge the party with LDP of perhaps AEJ or just disband and go their separate  ways to LDP or AEJ.

Some interesting facts and background of heavyweight MP from Kumamoto Prefecture (熊本) Sonoda Hiroyuki (園田博之) who recently left FPG to rejoin LDP.  

Sonoda is the son of one Sonoda Sunao (園田直) who was first elected from Kumamoto in 1947 and was re-elected every election up to 1983.  Sonoda senior died in 1984.   Sonoda junior then ran for his father's seat and won but had to face his own stepmother Sonoda Tenkōkō (園田天光光) and defeated her in a 5 member district race.  Sonoda Tenkōkō was called Matsutani Tenkōkō (松谷天光光) and was also elected in 1947 in Tokyo as a Socialist.  While in the diet she had an affair with the married Sonoda senior and got pregnant.  Sonada senior then divorced his wife and  mother of Sonoda Hiroyuki and married Matsutani which was one of the great scandals of the Japanese diet in the late 1940s.  Sonoda Tenkōkō  was the first MP to give birth while being a MP.  Sonoda Tenkōkō then had a shift in political views and joined the right wing Progressive Party of her husband but lost reelection in Tokyo in 1952.  She tried in 1953 1955 and 1958 to get elected in Tokyo as a center-right candidate and failed in center-left Tokyo.  After that she shifted her effort to helping her husband in Kumamoto.  When Sonoda senior died in 1984 both she and her stepson Sonoda Hiroyuki claimed the mantel of Sonoda senior.  LDP high command was neutral so both ran as independents, but several powerful LDP factions backed Sonoda Hiroyuki who won in this famous political family fued.   Sonoda Tenkōkō  only passed away in early 2015 at age 96.  While she was a feminist Socialist fire-band in the 1940s toward the 1980s she has moved to extreme right and was very connected to the highly revisionist Nihon Kaigi (日本会議).  

 As for Sonoda junior he was part of the 1993 rebellion against LDP by joining NPS (New Party Sakigake) and was able to win in 1996 as a NPS candidate.  He rejoined LDP in 1998.  Then in 2010 he joined the extreme right LDP splinter SPJ (Sunrise Party of Japan) of Hiranuma Takeo (平沼 赳夫) before joining JRP as part of merger of SPJ into JRP.  He then joined the split of FPG from JRP in 2014 before leaving for a few months to try to revive SPJ and then coming back to FPG.  Now he has rejoined LDP.  It seems that Sonada junior never made up with his stepmother even as both share the same extreme right revisionist beliefs.

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Now that diet session is over there are efforts for party alliance realignment.  DPJ and JIP are trying to work out a common manifesto for 2016 Upper House elections with an eye perhaps on a merger that also includes PLP and SDP.  JCP is proposing an all Japan alliance with DPJ and JIP and for a post election united front government.  On the hawk side, there are talk that PGP, AEJ and the Hashimoto party, once it forms, forms an rightist hawkish alliance that can act as an alliance partner for LDP.  Abe seems keen on such an alliance as there is fear that KP might lose support in 2016 Upper House elections as its MPs voted for the new security law even as the KP base grassroots seems negative on the new laws.   

Wait the PLP? They're inviting freaking Ichiro Ozawa back???? Lmao

It is more the JIP guys are pushing it.  JIP wants all 4 parties (DPJ JIP SDP and PLP) to dissolve and merge into a new party.  DPJ wants the rest of them to merge into DPJ which could but does not have to include PLP.   

The DPJ would be stupid to dissolve. They've lasted a long time (by Japanese political party standards).

Looks like Hashimoto's new national party will be called Osaka Restoration Association which will focus on Osaka.  So again not sure how national this party really is.  Hashimoto insist that Osaka being in the name is a symbol of the new party's desire to push for regional autonomy and regulation.  The new party will push for direct election of PM.  It seems that Osaka governor Matsui will lead the party and will run for reelection Nov 22 along with Upper House JIP MP Katayama Toranosuke (片山 虎之助) who as I mentioned before has a FPG background .  Also as mentioned before JIP MP Yoshimura will run for mayor for ORA on the same day.  Everything depends on winning both races.  As expected at the national level this new party will be pro-Abe when it comes to foreign policy issues.

Hashimoto denounced the current JIP as a "fake" but did reconfirm that he will retire from politics but I am pretty sure no one believes him on this one.

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Latest on JIP split

Pro-Hashimoto bloc has 17 MP (11 Lower House 6 Upper House)  - really 10 Lower House since one pro-Hashimoto MP resigned to run for Osaka Mayor.

Anti-Hashimoto bloc has 26 MP (21 Lower House and 5 Upper Hoise)

Neutral bloc has 8 Lower House MPs.  

What seems to be driving choices is not just ideology (OSA background for sure going for Hashimoto while PFG and LDP background mostly for Hashimoto while YP DPJ PLP background should be mostly anti-Hashimoto) but especially for Lower House MPs, re-election prospects.  Several FPG and LDP lower House MPs are in the neutral bloc since for them to win re-election they need to go up against LDP candidates.  Just like several Okinawa and DPJ background MPs which should be anti-Hashimoto choose to be in the pro-Hashimoto camp or neutral because DPJ already has formed anti-LDP alliances in their district ergo there is no place for them during re-election if they side with JIP which means siding with DPJ.   It is also easier for DPJ or YP background Upper House MPs who won on PR to go with Hashimoto because they can always run on the PR slate.  The new Hashimoto party outside of Kinki will not do well in district seats but the party as a whole could get up to 8% of the national vote which would mean 4 PR MPs in the Upper House PR list.  

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For Osaka mayor election it is all set.  It will be LDP's Akira Yanagimoto (柳本顕) who is a member of the Osaka city council versus ORA's Hirofumi Yoshimura (吉村洋文) who is a current JIP MP from Osaka.  As expected for Osaka politics, DPJ and JCP will back the LDP candidate.  In Osaka it is now mostly everyone gang up on OAA.  For Hashimoto this is a must win if he is able to prove his new Osaka based national party can go anywhere.

As for Osaka governor ORA will run Ichirō Matsui (松井一郎) for reelection and the anti-ORA front is still trying to work out who will challange him.  Kunio Hiramatsu (平松 邦夫) who was mayor of Osaka is offering himself as a compromise candidate.  Kunio Hiramatsu was first elected as Osaka mayor back in 2007 backed by DPJ but lost re-election to Hashimoto in 2011.

JIP expelled the Osaka based 12 MPs.  About 16 JIP MPs are expected to join the new Hashimoto Party of ORA.  The formation of the new party is being delayed to dispute the expulsion.  At stake are the $20+ million worth subsidies JIP gets annually based on their vote share on the PR slate.  ORA will claim that JIP split so they deserve their share of the money whereas JIP claims the pro-Hashimoto faction were expelled so they deserve nothing.  This will most likely go to the courts.

So Hase Hiroshi is the new Minister of A Lot Of Things, We'll Say 'Culture' For Now. Hase is one of the few relatively good eggs in the LDP right now (in particular he's strong on LGBT rights), so I'm pleased with this, but one suspects his appointment is meant to function partially as a way to distract attention from MEXT's role in the recent attack on the humanities and social sciences in Japanese universities.

Latest polls has ORA well ahead for the Osaka Governor election where Matsui Ichirō (松井一郎) is running for reelection
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For the Osaka mayor race ORA's Yoshimura Hirofumi (吉村洋文) has a slight lead
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New scandal.  New Minister for Reconstruction Takagi Tsuyoshi (高木毅) is accused of having multiple counts of stealing women's underwear some 30 years ago.  Takagi is not responding to these allegations.   

Uh... okay?

He's also a former professional wrestler.

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Oh Japan, sometimes you make jokes just too easy.

This is gotta be the most Japanese scandal ever.

Matsushima Midori's from last year was more representative of Japan, but this one is more peculiar to Japan.

That's what I meant. I remember Al talking about the "most German scandal ever" when a government minister was accused of plagiarism.

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections this Sunday.  This prefecture always had a slight anti-LDP lean.  Of course just like every other prefecture, LDP dominates the prefecture assembly.   YP did very well last time so it would be interesting to see where the YP vote went and if DPJ could make advances due to the new Security law.

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections voting mostly done.  Turnout is projected to be around 27%-28% as of 6pm which is a massive drop from 2011, which in turn was a low.  So turnout overall will be lower than 2011.

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Most likely this will help LDP-KP and JCP.

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections.  Will have more details later.  LDP-KP mostly holding their own with some minor losses relative to 2011.  JCP makes large advances relative to SDP and to some extent DPJ.  The 2011 YP vote seems to have been split evenly JIP as well as other post-YP parties or independents, LDP, and DPJ.

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture has LDP-KP losing a bit of ground since 2011.  This is mostly because of some LDP rebels that are running and won with implicit DPJ support and most likely win caucus with DPJ.  JIP and YP retained some of the YP support from 2011 but some of it leaked back to LDP.  JCP surged mostly due to fears over TPP getting vote share from DPJ and SDP.

Results are (I always count pro-DPJ and pro-SDP independents under DPJ and SDP as well pro-LDP independents which I count under LDP)

2015            

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             43                 32                 48.92%
KP                 4                   4                   7.11%
JIP                 3                   1                   2.38%
Post-YP          3                   2                   3.44%
DPJ              16                 10                 18.95%
SDP               3                   2                   4.16%
JCP                9                   8                  12.80%
Ind.               5                   0                    2.24%



2011

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             41                 34                 49.07%
KP                 4                   4                   6.93%
YP                 8                   4                   9.36%
DPJ              18                   9                 18.89%
SDP               5                   4                   5.29%
JCP                7                   4                   7.33%
Ind.               7                   0                   3.13%




2007

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             47                 39                 54.98%
KP                 4                   4                   6.25%
DPJ              18                 12                 22.68%
SDP               7                   4                   7.90%
JCP                8                   2                   7.25%
Ind.               2                   0                   0.94%

The current status of JIP split is that ORA was formed  with 20 of JIP MPs joining up.  There are a few more that could join but they are waiting for results of the Osaka Mayor and Governor election of next weekend 11/15.  Meanwhile in DPJ there are now pressures to dissolve the DPJ so a DPJ-JIP merger can take place under a new name.  The current plan is for DPJ and JIP to form one caucus.   

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections tomorrow.  LDP tends to be weaker here but LDP-KP should be able to keep their majority. 

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  LDP seems to be doing well in rural areas where votes counts are coming in.  Nothing in urban areas yet where JCP will do well.

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          19
KP              1
DPJ            7
JCP            1

with LDP clearly gaining a couple of seats from DPJ in rural areas.

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          22
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ            9
JCP            2

with LDP clearly gaining a couple of seats from DPJ in rural areas.  The YP winner of 2011 is now running and winning as a JIP backed independent. 

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          24
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           10
JCP             4

LDP most likely will repeat its 2011 result of 32 seats.  A couple of LDP backed independents might caucus with JIP.  LDP will most likely gain in terms of vote share.

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          24
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           12
JCP             4

LDP losing ground a bit in urban mostly because of superior DPJ nomination strategy.  JCP not doing as well as expected.
 

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          26
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           12
JCP             4

Only results from Fukushima City (福島市) Koriyama (郡山市) are outstanding. My back-of-the-envelope guess of what the final results will be

LDP          33
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           15
SDP            1
JCP             5

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          31
KP              2
JIP              1
DPJ           14
JCP             5

Only results from Fukushima City (福島市) are outstanding.  DPJ doing a better there than I expected.  I now project

LDP          32
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Which means no change from 2011.  Net net, LDP gains ground in rural areas and loses ground in urban areas.

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections all races called

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

2015 results are

LDP          32
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           16
SDP            1
JCP             5

I will have vote share calculations later.  Like I said before, LDP did gain ground from DPJ in rural areas but lost ground to DPJ in urban areas most due to superior DPJ nomination strategies.  JCP did not do as well as expected.

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections comparison between 2007 2011 2015

I lumped pro-LDP independents with LDP and pro-DPJ independents with DPJ.  


2015

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     40                     32                  48.06%
KP                         3                       3                    6.71%
JIP                        3                       1                    2.22%
DPJ                     21                     16                   27.95%
SDP                      2                       1                     2.71%
JCP                       6                       5                    10.71%
Independents        4                       0                     1.64%
                                  


2011

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     40                     32                  50.90%
KP                         3                       3                    6.37%
YP                         3                       1                    2.55%
DPJ                     27                     16                   26.44%
SDP                      4                       1                     3.63%
JCP                       6                       5                     8.70%
Independents       5                      0                      1.40%



2007

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     44                     32                  53.11%
KP                         3                       3                    6.20%
DPJ                     21                     17                   26.86%
SDP                      4                       3                     5.15%
JCP                       6                       3                     8.12%
Independents       2                       0                      0.56%


While it seems that DPJ and JCP gained vote share against LDP since 2011 it is not really the case.  In 2015 the DPJ decided not to contest as much as they did in 2011 in LDP dominated seats in rural areas.  This has the effect of artifically lowering the LDP vote share since there were more districts where voting was not necessary.  Looking  the rural seats where the DPJ did confront LDP as well as urban seats it is clear that LDP gained on DPJ in rural areas while DPJ and JCP gained on LDP in urban areas.  So in terms of level of support 2015 is also pretty much a wash relative to 2011 for the LDP.  In that sense this is not a bad result for DPJ since 2011 is mostly seen as the nadir of the LDP in local elections.



Another way to look at the data to understand the urban/rural dynamics is to just look at the 4 urban election districts and compare 2007 2011 and 2015 results there since all 4 districts are contested.  These 4 urban districts make up 31 out of 58 seats.

2015

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     17                     13                  42.59%
KP                         3                       3                  10.42%
JIP                        3                       1                    3.45%
DPJ                     11                       9                   24.74%
SDP                      2                       1                     4.21%
JCP                       5                       4                   13.52%
Independents        2                       0                     1.07%
                                  


2011

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     17                     15                  42.47%
KP                         3                       3                   11.46%
YP                         3                       1                    4.59%
DPJ                     12                       7                  22.54%
SDP                      3                       1                     5.51%
JCP                       5                       4                   12.54%
Independents       5                       0                     0.90%



2007

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     20                     15                  49.05%
KP                         3                       3                  10.13%
DPJ                       8                       7                   21.25%
SDP                      4                       3                     8.42%
JCP                       5                       3                   10.43%
Independents        1                       0                    0.72%

It seems clear what took place.  LDP+KP vote share dropped about 1% in urban areas between 2011 and 2015 and because DPJ+SDP nominated less people they were able to gain 2 seats from LDP with a 1% growth in vote share.  JCP also gained a bit in vote share.

In rural areas, DPJ contested less seats giving LDP a bunch of walkovers and DPJ lost two open seats to LDP, one of them where DPJ did not bother to put up a candidate even thought DPJ held the seats.  

So this election is about DPJ getting smarter in urban areas plus a small swing.  In rural areas it is mostly LDP vs DPJ head to head and DPJ continues to lose confidence as turnout falls and it finds it hard to win against the LDP larger vote base absent the floating vote actually turning out.  This same trend was going on from 2007 to 2011 as most of the gains by DPJ against LDP in that period was also clearly in urban areas.

Major setback for Abe.  Japan July-September GDP shrinks annualized 0.8%.  Japan is now in recession a second time since the Abe administration began in Dec 2012.  There will now be pressure for a extra budget which will run into resistance from the powerful Ministry of Finance.  There will also be pressure for yet another round of QE.  Of course if QE is stepped up and continues at that pace in the BOJ will pretty much own all Japanese public debt in a decade or so.

Osaka mayor and Osaka governor election tomorrow.  Right now it seems ORA seems to be well placed to win both races over LDP.

Exit poll for Osaka Mayor race which is closer

()

The key here is that the ORA won 35% of the LDP vote AND 98% of the ORA vote.  The real enemy of the ORA in Osaka city is DPJ KP and KP.  ORA could only win 17% 11% and 6% of their votes respectively.  But it is not needed.  ORA should cruise to victory in this race.

For Osaka Governor race it is ORA ahead of LDP 63-35 with 52% of the vote counted.  For Osaka mayor it is ORA ahead of LDP 52-46 with 20% of the vote counted.

Hashimoto will claim this is a mandate to push for another Osaka merger referendum which if it takes place I suspect Yes will win this time.

There is going to be all sorts of cascading effects from this election result.  JIP will weaken further as MPs on the fence might go over to ORA.  This will add to the conflict within DPJ between pro-JIP and pro-JCP factions.  Pro-JIP faction is for dissolving DPJ and merge with JIP to from THE non-JCP opposition party.  Pro-JCP faction is for an alliance with JCP with the option of expanding said alliance with JIP.  One way or another this conflict could weaken DPJ or lead to a split.  Abe now would be quite tempted to call a double election in 2016 where there will be a lower house election next year at the same time as an upper house election. Abe's logic would be that the weakened opposition parties would not have enough money to spend on both elections at the same time and be crushed in both elections.

The Osaka Governor election exit polls show the ORA winning 47% of the LDP vote and 96% of the ORA vote.  The LDP candidate won 50% of the LDP vote and around 70% of the DPJ KP and JCP vote.  The LDP in Osaka is turning into the DPJ-KP-JCP alliance with some backing from LDP.

With 88% of the vote counted in the Osaka Governor race it is ORA 63.3 LDP 34.4.  With 69% of the vote counted in the Osaka mayor election it is ORA 54.3 DPJ 42.2

I guess this gives the de facto mandate for Hashimoto to remain in politics.  I wonder in what way will he break his pledge?  It could be he does quite politics, like Osaka local politics, but reemerge on national politics as a member of Abe's cabinet.  Hashimoto and Abe has always been close.  Before Abe won his surprise victory for LDP leadership in late 2012, Hashimoto actually invited Abe to join his new JRP and become a co-leader of his new party.

With 98% of the vote counted in the Osaka Governor race it is ORA 63.9 LDP 33.5.  With 95% of the vote counted in the Osaka mayor election it is ORA 56.4 DPJ 39.0

Why does the JIP oppose Abe's constitutional changes? From the right because they consider it not ideologically pure enough? From the right/left because of Anti-Americanism? From the left in order to opportunistically oppose an unpopular decision? From the left because they want to be a potential coalition partner for DPJ? From the left because they genuinely are less hawkish than Abe? Some combination?

Well,  JIP was a confederation of DPJ rebels, YP, and Hashimoto supporters.  While most of them would have no real issues with Abe constitutional changes, some might have real concerns on how Abe is doing it.  Also the some of the ex-YP and ex-DPJ members of JIP, opposing Abe on constitutional changes is a way of forming the basis of an grand alliance of opposition parties with DPJ, PLP, SDP, and perhaps even JCP.

Looks like DPJ and JIP will form a joint parliamentary group. With ORA being fairly viable party after their landslide victories in Osaka, the fate of the DPJ-JIP alliance in 2016 elections will depend on how much of the anti-LDP vote the ORA will capture outside of Osaka.  In Osaka it will be ORA vs an increasing anti-Abe Osaka LDP.

Latest developments.  Overall the Abe cabinet approval is rising back up to be what it was in early summer before the onslaught of the new security law.  So it seems Abe survived his gambit.  As payoff to KP who vote base seems to be opposed to the new security legislation, it seems LDP has agreed to to change the consumption tax rate at 8% on food and drinks when the overall rate goes up to 10% in 2017.  KP's vote base is the urban lower middle class which would be hurt badly by this tax increase.  Now KP can claim that it brought home the bacon.  Of course now Abe will have to find extra revenue or reduce spending or face the wrath of the Ministry of Finance.  There is also talk again of a double election next July as part of this payoff.  KP usually prefers to separate out elections since it resources are limited like opposition parties.  it is the LDP, flush with funds that prefer double election.  The payoff to KP on the consumption seems so large that there are rumors that KP also agreed to double election.  Abe seems to deny this but he does not seem to rule out a double election either.  With LDP-KP support coming back up, DPJ and JIP mired in internal splits out opposition alliance strategy, and ORA splitting the opposition vote, it seems that LDP-KP is set to cruise to a large victory in a double election in the summer of 2016 and get the majority and mandate it needs to remove Clause 9 of the Constitution which binds Japan not to use military force.  Quite an accomplishment and legacy for Abe.

The result of the JIP split based on background of MPs are

6 Upper House MPs join ORA, 5 stay in JIP

13 Lower House MPs join ORA, 6 became independents, 21 stay in JIP


                   Upper House              Lower House
PGOR                  1                                1             -> both joins ORA
YP (LDP back)      3                                2             -> 1 independent, 4 JIP
YP (DPJ back)                                        2              -> both stay in JIP
YP                      3                                 5             -> 1 independent, 7 JIP 
Osaka                 2                               11            -> all 13 join ORA
LDP                                                      4              -> 3 independent, 1 JIP
DPJ                     1                                8             -> 1 join ORA, 1 independent, 7 JIP
PLP                                                       4             -> all 4 stay in JIP
SPJ                     1                                3             -> 2 join ORA, 1 independent, 1 JIP

It seems that the PGOR background MPs which view the JCP as their main enemy did not want to stay in JIP since an JIP-JCP tactical alliance is possible.  As expected, all Osaka based MPs went to ORA.  It seems LDP background MPs (either through YP or not) did not want to join ORA but were not comfortable with DPJ-JIP alliance so many of them became independent.   I suspect many of them will try to get back into LDP.    Those with PLP, DPJ and YP background all things equal stayed in JIP.  SPJ background MPs went to ORA but one stayed in JIP and one became an independent.  A DPJ background MP did join ORA but he was from 兵庫県 (Hyōgo Prefecture) which is in Kinki region although not Osaka so I suspect he joined given the strength of the ORA in that prefecture. 

Today is Hashimoto last day as Osaka mayor and as a result he has exited from Osaka politics.  He is still an adviser to ORA but in theory is out of politics.  I suspect he will resurface soon in national politics. I am not sure in what form but most likely as an ally of Abe.

ORA did say that they will run candidates in all prefectures that are in Kinki in next year's Upper House elections.  It is not clear if ORA will be viable outside Kinki. 

Or, alternatively, get its attempt to do so stymied in the ensuing referendum.

In any case any hawkish-but-otherwise-reasonable types who think Abe will content himself with just redacting Article 9 are kidding themselves. Abe is a hard-nationalist true believer for reasons that are deeply personal to him. The 'accomplishment and legacy' he wants is a regime.

You might very well be right.  But Abe keeps on pulling of what I consider the impossible so now nothing will surprise me what he will managed to accomplish given how divided and incompetent his ideological enemies are.

It seems the 6 ex-JIP MPs that quit JIP but did not join ORA will from a grouping called 改革結集の会 which translates into Association of Reform Grouping.  I will end up calling them ARG since there does not seem to be an official English name for this group.  Yet another Center-Right opposition splinter group in addition to AEJ, PFG, TCJ (Tax Cuts Japan), and NRP (New Renaissance Party.)  I am pretty sure this camp will go nowhere as well just like the others.

Only way out is for all these parties to merge into larger Rightest opposition bloc.  Of course this bloc will be fighting with ORA for the same bloc of votes.  

I figured it is time to update my projections for the 2016 Upper House elections based on the JIP-ORA split.   My model has both JIP and ORA hurt from their civil war and split with some of the original JIP vote going to LDP and DPJ.  ORA will attract AEJ and PFG which makes both parties non-entities.  I also make the optimistic (for DPJ) assumption that they will pull off tactical alliances with JIP and JCP in competitive single member districts.  I also assume that DPJ and NPD make a deal where NPD run for the second Hokkaido seat and NPD backs DPJ in the PR vote.  ORA I assume will run in all Kinki districts but mostly nowhere else.  KP will lose a bit of support from its dovish base due to its support of security bills.  
 

                                               My Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3             LDP DPJ NPD    (Tactical JIP-JCP support for DPJ-NPD defeats LDP-KP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP         (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance for PLP for a PLP lock in victory)
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                
福島   Fukushima       1             DPJ          (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1             LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4              LDP KP DPJ JCP    (JIP AEJ tactical alliance might take JCP one)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP         (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP DPJ  (JIP AEJ tactical alliance might take DPJ one)
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPJ       (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DPJ JCP                
三重   Mie                   1             DPJ        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
滋賀   Shiga                1             DPJ        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ as ORA split LDP
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP JCP    (DPJ-JIP might back JCP to beat back ORA for second seat)
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance might take a KP seat)      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1             LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             DPJ          (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)    
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPJ    (ORA might run here but with JIP backing DPJ, DPJ wins)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP       (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)        
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP    (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance backing OSMP defeats LDP-ORA)      

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       31.5%          16               39                       55
KP         13.5%            7                7                        14
DPJ        23.0%          11              18                       29
SDP        2.5%             1                0                         1
PLP         2.0%             1                1                         2
JIP          4.0%             2                0                         2
ORA        8.0%             4                2                         6
FPG        0.75%           0                0                         0
JCP       13.0%             6                4                       10
AEJ         0.75%          0                 0                        0
NPD                                               1                        1
OSMP                                             1                        1

If this is what takes place which is relatively optimistic for DPJ we then add the seats up for reelection in 2019 we have

            2016         2019            Total
LDP        55            65                120
KP          14            11                  25
DPJ        29             17                 46
SDP         1               2                   3
PLP          2              1                   3
JIP           2              1                   3
ORA         6              5                 11
PFG         0              3                    3
JCP        10              8                  18
AEJ          0              4                   4
NPD         1              0                   1
NPR         0              1                   1
OSMP       1              1                   2
Ind          0              3                   3

Independents are all hawkish ex-YP or ex-PFG MPs.  If we group the post 2016 election results MPs by hawks and doves we have Hawks at 167 and Doves at 75 which is 69%-31%.  As long as Abe can get AEJ-PFG-hawkish independents, KP, and ORA all in one broad alliance, he will get the 2/3 majority for Constitutional change even if DPJ manages to pull off a bunch of tactical alliances.  Only way this can be avoided is if somehow turnout surges in 2016 elections where latent DPJ voters come out to vote against LDP-KP.  Right now this does not seem likely.

週刊現代 (Shūkan Gendai) came out with its projections of 2016 double election.  It makes the assumption that DPJ infighting will prevent a viable alliance with JIP nor JCP.  It also assumes that the double election will stretch the resources of the opposition parities.  The result they project is a tidal wave  victory for LDP-KP.

It projects the Total Upper House seat distribution after 2016 Upper House elections

LDP   127
KP       26
DPJ     42
JIP        5
JCP     13
ORA    10
AEJ       3
SDP      2
PLP       3
PFG      3
Others  1
Indep.   7


()


It also projects Lower House totals in a double elections to be

LDP       323
KP          34
DPJ        49
JIP         18
JCP        20
ORA       20
SDP         2
PLP          2
Others     7

If these were the results then Abe for sure will have the mandate to change the Constitution.   How the referendum goes after that will depend on the nature of the Constitutional change and how Abe sells it.

DPJ, JIP, SDP, and JCP have agreed that in 2016 Upper House single district seat  of 熊本(Kumamoto) which is a LDP stronghold, they will jointly back the DPJ candidate as the JCP withdrew its candidate.  The extreme left SDP splinter NSP will also join this alliance.   Had this alliance been formed when the seat is a open seat and a less pro-LDP environment it might have a chance to win.  But with a popular LDP incumbent running this alliance will just make the race a bit closer but will not have any real chance of winning.  A similar alliance in more marginal seats could have a much bigger impact.

A bit late, but a funny picture from the Osaka mayor/governor elections where LDP DPJ and JCP had a joint rally.  The joint rally featured leaders from all 3 parties and the picture labeled them according to party.  自民 for LDP, 民主 for DPJ, and 共産 for JCP.

()

This is part of the failed Osaka everyone gang up on Hashimoto.

This is sort of what I was getting at above. He might be able to sell the Japanese people on a straight repeal or rewording of Article 9, even though that's currently unpopular. But that isn't the full extent of what Jiminto has been proposing over the years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Japan#2012_Draft).

Then again, if the Japanese people are honestly willing to vote themselves a two-thirds House of Representatives majority for Jiminto alone, who knows what else they're willing to vote themselves given the right spin?

Fuji Daily came out with their own projections of a double election result.  It is also a large LDP-KP landslide although some of their numbers make no sense in their Lower House projections.

They have for Upper House

LDP            69
KP              10
DPJ            17
JIP               4
JCP            10
ORA             5
SDP             1
PLP              1
FPG             1
AEJ             1
NPR            1
Other          1

This seems possible if JIP LDP and JCP fail to form tactical alliances AND a swing toward LDP-KP from 2014.

They have for Lower House

             FPTP     PR          Total
LDP        235      72          307
KP             9       26           35
DPJ          29      35            64
JIP            5       13            18
ORA          3       10            13
JCP           4        22           26
SDP          0         2              2
PLP           1         0             1
Others      9         0              9

This seems to imply that LDP-KP vote share to be a bit higher than 50% on the PR which would even beat their 2013 performance which I guess in theory is possible.  What does not make sense is how JCP can win 4 FPTP seats.  That is only possible of JCP has some tactical alliances with DPJ-JIP.  But if that is the case then DPJ and JIP would not do so poorly on the FPTP section.  Also it is pretty much impossible for SDP to win 2 PR seats. 

PFG Upper House MP 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) has left PFG to be an independent indicating that he might join ORA.  Of course he being up for re-election in 2016 and having no prospect of being re-elected on the FPG slate is a key factor.  I guess he is hoping to get on the ORA PR list.   PFG now has only 4 MPs and below the threshold to form a caucus which in turn means it will lose government funding.  PFG is pretty much finished as is.  It could perhaps merge with AEJ or the new JIP splinter ARG or perhaps with ORA itself.

Also, Former PFG MP 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa) who quit PFG back in the summer when it was obvious he could not win the PFG leadership contest is looking to form yet another Right wing party.  It seems he might be perhaps trying to create this new party by merging ARG into it.  I guess it is also possible if 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) does not get a good deal from ORA he might join this outfit.

In addition to redistricting already made for Upper House there are now plans on the table for redistricting for Lower House.  The goal is to get the vote disparity between the largest and smallest district to below 2:1 as stipulated by the Supreme court.  The idea is to increase the number of seats in prefectures that gained population, especially Tokyo which will go from 25 to 28 while reducing the number of seats in areas the mostly rural prefectures.  Okinawa for some reason is going down from 4 to 3 even though they have been gaining population.  Overall the number of FPTP seats will go down from 295 to 289.  For PR section they are also reducing the over number of PR seats from 180 to 176 with Tokyo area gaining 1 and 5 other sections each losing 1.   Total seats going down from 475 seats to 465 seats.

()

So far this is the proposal.  The rumor is the Abe administration wants to push this through as to give it an excuse to have a double election in summer of 2016. He can say "Look, the supreme court indicated that we have to redistrict to be in compliance with the constitution so  now we did it lets have an election ASAP as to remove any double on the constitutionality of the elected MPs of the lower house."

I wrote about this before but it is interesting to talk about the reason/nature of LDP domination of politics in Japan.  It is based on 3 facts which reinforce each other

1) LDP all things equal is the ruling party at the national level
2) LDP dominates local politics at the prefecture level
3) KP is locked into alliance with LDP at the national and local level in thick and thin

These facts are reinforced by the following set of facts

1) LDP has the ability to contain and manage conflicts of various factions all within the LDP ecosystem with a ruthless attention to make sure intra-factional conflict are managed in such a way that everyone that has real grassroots support and can win are still in LDP.  In   In other words the rule: "If you win you are LDP"
2) Prefecture governments cannot run budget deficits so prefecture governments must have relationships with the national governments for funding and subsidies to be able to provide pork to the voting population and various local vested interest.  So an up-an-coming local politician needs to have connections to the national government though some organizational means.
3) National elections are won in small district level where the personal vote are critical to winning. The personal vote is grown by politicians at the prefecture level which is really a farm league for national politics.
4) KP desires above all legitimacy in mainstream society and media.  This is critical especially after the 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by the  Aum Shinrikyo cult.  It was after 1995 when the KP which was formed as an anti-LDP force became pro-LDP so it can me seen as mainstream.

So the net affect of all this is:

A rising local politician with local grassroots support all things equal join a LDP faction at the prefecture level and becomes part of the LDP prefecture government.  The range of positions of these LDP factions are such so that it gives the local politician the ability to join the faction that more fits with his ideological and local profile.  He then rises up in the national level adding his personal vote to the LDP+KP vote base to win national elections and add to the LDP majority which in turn is a source of funding for the next generation of rising local politician.   

A key part of all this the state of local prefecture politics in Japan which I spend some time looking at. I will report my findings as I pointed out, LDP success in local politics along with KP support locally as well is a key if not THE key linchpin of LDP domination of Japanese politics.
 

週刊現代 (Shūkan Gendai) did a survey on the PR section of the lower House.  The results by block was

Hokkaido (北海道)                LDP 3 DPJ 2 KP 1 JCP 2 (+1) JIP 0 (-1)
Tohoku (東北)                     LDP 5 DPJ 3 (-1) KP 2 JCP 2 (+1) JIP 2
Kitakanto (北関東)               LDP 8 DPJ 4 KP 3 JCP 3(+1) JIP 2 (-1)
Minamikanto (南関東)          LDP 11 (+3) DPJ 5 (+1) KP 3 JCP 2 (-1) JIP 1 (-3)
Tokyo (東京)                       LDP 6 DPJ 3 KP 2 JCP 3 JIP 2 (-1) ORA 1 (+1)
Hokurikushinetsu(北陸信越) LDP 6 (+1) DPJ 2 (-1) KP 1 JCP 1 JIP 1
Tokai (東海)                         LDP 9 (+1) DPJ 4 (-1) KP 3 JIP 3 JCP 2
Kinki (近畿)                         ORA 10 (+10) LDP 9 KP 3 DPJ 2 (-2) JCP 2 (-2) JIP 2 (-6)
Chugoku (中国)                   LDP 5 KP 2 DPJ 1 (-1) JCP 1 ORA 1 (+1) JIP 1
Shikoku (四国)                    LDP 3 DPJ 1 KP 1 ORA 1 (+1) JIP 0 (-1)
Kyushu (九州)                     LDP 8 KP 4 DPJ 3 JCP 2 JIP 2 (-1) JCP 1 ORA 1 (+1) SDP 1

Which gives us

LDP     73 (+5)
DPJ     30  (-5)
KP       26
JCP     20
JIP      16 (-14)
ORA    14 (+14)
SDP      1

In this poll it seems that the the urban areas outside of Tokyo what remains of the YP vote base went over to LDP completely from JIP.  In the rural North it is the JCP that is gaining from DPJ, while in Osaka the JCP and DPJ loses ground to ORA as LDP-KP hold their own.  JIP and ORA are actually doing a bit better than I would expect.  These results would seem to imply that LDP-KP will be around 50%-51% of the vote on the PR section which would mean a mega landslide in FPTP unless DPJ-JIP-JCP form tactical alliances.

Honestly, a split within Jiminto might be an easier way to dislodge them than getting the existing opposition back to power at this point.

Just now catching up on all of this.

So is it correct to say that what is left of the JIP is mostly the Unity Party and the Unity Party is mostly former members of Your Party who favored an alliance with the far right. Only now the far right has abandoned them to reform the ORA so now they might join an alliance with the DPJ.

Meanwhile, the original members of Your Party who favored the DPJ have mostly just disappeared? Or merged into the DPJ wholesale?

and the Your Party members who wanted to keep being the Your Party are now Assembly to Energize Japan or whatever?

Mostly correct.  But to be precise, there were 3 streams of Right splinters.  

SPJ is a LDP extreme right splinter
YP are anti-DPJ libertarians, anti-LDP libertarians, LDP rebels, and DPJ rebels.
JRP are a Osaka LDP Splinter faction plus some DPJ and LDP rebels

Then SPJ merged into JRP.
Then UP split from YP taking with them some anti-LDP libertarians, some LDP rebels, and some DPJ rebels with a couple of anti-DPJ libertarians.
Then UP merged with JRP to form JIP while PFG split out of JRP taking with some some of the LDP extreme right that was part of SPJ.
Then YP itself dissolved.  The anti-DPJ libertarians of YP became AEJ, the rest either joined JIP or PFG and others going back to DPJ.
Then JIP split with ORA taking with it the LDP extreme right, some LDP rebels, the Osaka LDP splinter, and what is left of the anti-DPJ libertarians in JIP.  Some LDP rebels from JIP also formed ARG.  This leaves JIP with mostly anti-LDP libertarians and DPJ rebels which makes it relatively easy to ally with DPJ as long as the DPJ left faction is not in charge.
 

In addition to PFG losing is 5th MP recently making it no longer a valid caucus which then cuts them off from funding, the AEJ also lost a 5th MP.  One 井上義行 (Inoue Yoshiyuki) recently also quit AEJ which reduces AEJ to 4 MPs.  Just like PFG this cuts AEJ off from government funding.  ARG which was just created by former JIP members as 5 members.  It is possible AEJ might need to do a deal with ARG or PFG to get back above 5 MPs or somehow attract various center-right independent MPs to join AEJ. PFG is in the same situation. 

It's just funny how the Unity Party represented the farthest right faction of Your Party (the others being the ones that favored being an independent party, and the ones who favored merging with the DPJ) and now they're aligned with the DPJ, taking the opposite position of what they used to.

Also, what happened to the Your Party founder guy. Did he just retire?

and what does AEJ stand for?

Assembly to Energize Japan.

Oops. Knew that. Meant ARG.

ARG stands for 改革結集の会 which translates into Association of Reform Grouping.  I am making this up for now since there is no official name for ARG.

As for YP founder Yoshimi Watanabe, he still dealing with the on again and off again investigations and prosecution for a funding scandal which led to him being forced out of YP leadership back in early 2014. His own nephew is a ex-YP Upper House MP who is an independent as he choose not to join AEJ.  With the recent chaos and proliferation of splinter parties and defections on the non-LDP right there has been talk of  Watanabe making a political comeback to organize a larger Rightest bloc.  But that will have to wait until Watanabe's legal troubles are over.

In other news, as soon as Hashimoto stepped down as mayor of Osaka and officially "leaves politics" he meets with PM Abe at a Tokyo hotel.  Also attending the meeting will be Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga and Osaka Gov and ORA leader Matsui.  It is clear they are working on ORA being part of the 2/3 majority in the Upper House after 2016 elections to push through constitutional changes as well as Hashimoto's return to politics mostly at the national level either in the LDP or an LDP ally.

Now that all prefecture elections of 2015 are over with (except Okinawa where there is an election in 2016) it is useful to look at the state of play at politics of the prefecture level.  This is one of the pillars of LDP domination of Japanese politics.  All prefecture elections are based on SNTV  in multi-member constituency, so other than a bias toward LDP seat count in rural Japan where the district sizes are often just 1- or 2- seats, the seat distributions are PR-like.  

So looking at the % of seats in each prefecture for each of the political blocs does give a sense the relative strength of the blocs in each prefecture.  On thing that makes this analysis hard is the large number of independents elected.  But it turned out almost all of these independents are either backed by LDP-KP or the anti-LDP-KP center-left opposition blocs or in the case of LDP, a member of a minority faction of the LDP in the prefecture.  Most of the time these independents also joins the caucus of the party they are aligned with or are from.  If they are front a minority faction they the caucus of the minority faction they are from.  I grouped these independents with the party they are aligned with.

Those that ran and won as LDP or LDP backed or some minority faction of LDP I count under LDP+.  Since in all prefectures LDP and KP are allied I also show the percentage of the prefecture assembly that LDP+KP has as well.  JCP is easy since they always run on the JCP ticket.  All DPJ, PLP, SDP, or some other local center-left opposition party, plus independents allied with any of these parties I count as DPJ+.  I also include various independents without LDP+ background and not aligned with the LDP+ power structure but without clear center-left background either as part of DPJ+ as must of the votes for these members are from the DPJ+ vote base anyway. I count JIP, ORA, and post-YP independents as JIP+.  

           LDP+        KP       LDP+KP      DPJ+     JIP+      JCP    
北海道50.50%   7.92%   58.42%   37.62%   0.00%   3.96% Hokkaido
青森   62.50%   6.25%   68.75%   25.00%   0.00%   6.25% Aomori
岩手   43.75%   2.08%   45.83%   47.92%   0.00%   6.25% Iwate
宮城   54.24%   6.78%   61.02%   20.34%   5.08%  13.56% Miyagi
秋田   62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33% Akita
山形   68.18%   2.27%   70.45%   25.00%   0.00%   4.55% Yamagata
福島   51.72%   5.17%   56.90%   29.31%   5.17%   8.62% Fukushima
茨城   71.43%   6.35%   77.78%   17.46%   0.00%   4.76% Ibaraki
栃木   58.00%   6.00%   64.00%   24.00%  10.00%   2.00% Tochigi
群馬   66.00%   6.00%   72.00%   24.00%   0.00%   4.00% Gunma
埼玉   56.99%   9.68%   66.67%   27.96%   0.00%   5.38% Saitama
千葉   57.89%   8.42%   66.32%   26.32%   2.11%   5.26% Chiba
神奈川47.62%   9.52%   57.14%   31.43%   5.71%   5.71% Kanagawa
山梨   65.79%   2.63%   68.42%   28.95%   0.00%   2.63% Yamanashi
東京   46.46% 18.11%   64.57%   14.96%   7.09% 13.39% Tokyo
新潟   66.04%   3.77%   69.81%   28.30%   0.00%   1.89% Niigata
富山   75.00%   2.50%   77.50%   20.00%   0.00%   2.50% Toyama
石川   69.77%   4.65%   74.42%   23.26%   0.00%   2.33% Ishikawa
福井   72.97%   2.70%   75.68%   21.62%   0.00%   2.70% Fukui
長野   37.93% 17.24%   55.17%   29.31%   1.72%  13.79% Nagano
岐阜   69.57%   4.35%   73.91%   21.74%   2.17%   2.17% Gifu
静岡   59.42%   7.25%   66.67%   31.88%   0.00%   1.45% Shizuoka
愛知   56.86%   5.88%   62.75%   32.35%   2.94%   1.96% Aichi
三重   41.18%   3.92%   45.10%   49.02%   1.96%   3.92% Mie
滋賀   47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   40.91%   0.00%   6.82% Shiga
京都   46.67%   8.33%   55.00%   18.33%   3.33%  23.33% Kyoto
大阪   29.55% 17.05%   46.59%    1.14%   48.86%   3.41% Osaka
兵庫   52.33% 15.12%   67.44%   16.28%  10.47%   5.81% Hyōgo
奈良   50.00%   6.82%   56.82%   20.45% 11.36%  11.36% Nara
和歌山71.43%   7.14%   78.57%   11.90%   2.38%   7.14% Wakayama
鳥取   60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   25.71%   0.00%   5.71% Tottori
島根   64.86%   5.41%   70.27%   24.32%   0.00%   5.41% Shimane
岡山   65.45%   9.09%   74.55%   20.00%   0.00%   5.45% Okayama
広島   65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   23.44%   0.00%   1.56% Hiroshima
山口   68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26% Yamaguchi
徳島   74.36%   5.13%   79.49%   12.82%   0.00%   7.69% Tokushima
香川   70.73%   4.88%   75.61%   19.51%   0.00%   4.88% Kagawa
愛媛   61.70%   6.38%   68.09%   17.02% 12.77%   2.13% Ehime
高知   54.05%   8.11%   62.16%   27.03%   0.00% 10.81% Kōchi
福岡   59.30% 12.79%   72.09%   25.58%   0.00%   2.33% Fukuoka
佐賀   71.05%   5.26%   76.32%   18.42%   0.00%   5.26% Saga
長崎   60.87%   6.52%   67.39%   28.26%   2.17%   2.17% Nagasaki
熊本   64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   27.08%   0.00%   2.08% Kumamoto
大分   55.81%   6.98%   62.79%   32.56%   2.33%   2.33% Ōita
宮崎   64.10%   7.69%   71.79%   23.08%   0.00%   5.13% Miyazaki
鹿児島72.55%   5.88%   78.43%   17.65%   1.96%   1.96% Kagoshima
沖縄   31.25% 10.42%   41.67%   43.75%   6.25%   8.33% Okinawa
Tot    57.30%   8.12%   65.41%   25.06%   3.95%   5.62%

The domination of the LDP is clear.  Due to threshold effects especially in rural districts the LDP vote share are usually around 5% less than their seat percentage.    The result is clear to seat.  LDP-KP has a majority in nearly every prefecture, sometimes by massive margins which is especially impressive given the psudo PR nature of seat allocation.   The only prefectures where LDP-KP does not have a majority are 岩手 (Iwate), 三重 (Mie), 沖縄 (Okinawa), and 大阪(Osaka).  In the first 3 DPJ+ has the upper hand but does not have a simple majority either. Only with JCP backing does DPJ+ have a majority in these 3 prefectures.  In Osaka ORA has a plurality over LDP-KP but does not have a majority either with DPJ and JCP who are both anti-ORA having the balance of power.

All things equal LDP-KP vote share in prefecture elections tends to be around 5%-8% higher than their vote share in national elections in each prefecture in question.

So Hashimoto is flip flopping too. Didn't he used to be opposed to working with the LDP? Wasn't that one of the issues that caused tension between him and Ishihara? Because Ishihara was pro-LDP since all his kids are in the LDP.

Looking at the prefecture numbers and comparing them to the vote share in national elections also gives us some color some of the local dynamics of prefecture politics.  All things equal the vote share of LDP-KP correlate heavily with seat share of LDP-KP at the prefecture level as is for the DPJ+ bloc.  There are some exceptions which is useful to document.

a) In 北海道 (Hokkaido) DPJ+ is a bit stronger than their national vote share would suggest.  This is because the pro-LDP NPD is fairly strong at the local level.
b) In the northern prefectures 宮城 (Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima), DPJ+ is weaker than their national vote share would suggest.  This is because the local JCP is very strong which eats into DPJ+ votes at the local level.
c) In 茨城 (Ibaraki) LDP+ is a bit stronger and DPJ+ a bit weaker than their national votes would suggest.   This is because the large number of 1- seat districts and weakness of DPJ in rural areas.  Also there are two rival LDP factions which are fighting it out in Ibaraki.  The minority LDP faction which is based on LDP rebel MP 中村喜四郎  (Nakamura Kishirō)  are now in the the opposition space with the DPJ+.
d) In 栃木(Tochigi) both LDP+ and DPJ+ perform a bit weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is the legacy of a still strong post-YP operation.
e) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) DPJ+ is  stronger and LDP+ weaker than their national vote share would suggest.  A set grouping called 県政会神奈川県議会議員団 (Kanagawa Prefecture Meeting Club) of LDP rebels and ex-YP members formed to opposed LDP and formed a de facto alliance with DPJ+ managed to eat into the LDP+ vote.
f) In 東京(Tokyo) DPJ+ is weaker than their national vote share would suggest.  This is because the lcoal JCP is very strong which eats into DPJ+ votes at the local level.
g) In 新潟 (Niigata) LDP+ is much stronger and DPJ+ much weaker than their national votes would suggest. This seems to be the effect of the Tanaka clan at the national level.  The daughter and son-in-law of old LDP PM Tanaka which are now in DPJ still has some influence over Nijgata are active in at the national level.  The old Tanaka machine at the local level stayed with LDP so the DPJ+ is much weaker at the local level than their national vote total.  As the Tanaka clan passes from the scene Nijgata will trend away from DPJ+ at the national level.
h) In 石川(Ishikawa). The DPJ+ weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is because of the very weak DPJ+ operation in rural parts of the prefecture which allows the LDP+ to completely sweep the rural areas.
i) In 長野(Nagano).  The LDP+ is much stronger than their national votes would suggest in this very weak LDP prefecture.  This is because the JIP is much weaker here locally than the national JIP and most of the JIP votes goes to local LDP+.
j) In 岐阜(Gifu)  LDP+ is much stronger and DPJ+ much weaker than their national votes would suggest. This seems to be the effect of the Tanaka clan at the national level.  This seems to be the affect of the way the prefecture district are drawn.  Most districts in Gifu, even urban ones, are drawn to be 1- 2- 3- and once in a while 4- member districts.  This makes the result a lot less PR and more like FPTP which gives an artificial number of LDP+ winners relative to other prefectures.
k) In 三重   (Mie) LDP+ is much weaker and DPJ+ much stronger than their national votes would suggest even as this is one of the strongest DPJ+ prefectures out there.  This is because there is a powerful pro-DPJ local party which dates back to the 1990s.  This local party which is called 新政みえ (or New Politics Mie) is based on the RENGO labor union alliance and eats into the LDP+ vote base, especially that of KP.
l) In 滋賀(Shiga)  LDP+ is much weaker and DPJ+ is much stronger than their national vote share would suggest.  This because the pro-DPJ governor managed to create a pro-DPJ local party called チームしが (Team) which ate into the LDP vote share.
m) In the Kinki prefectures  of 大阪 (Osaka)  and 奈良 (Nara) JIP+ is stronger than their national vote share would suggest even as they are the strongest JIP/ORA prefectures.  in Osaka JIP+ eats into both the LDP+ and DPJ+ vote bases. while in Nara JIP+ mostly eats into the LDP+ vote base.
n) In 和歌山 (Wakayama) which is also part of Kinki LDP+ is stronger than their national vote would suggest mostly because JIP+ is much weaker at the local level than their national vote would suggest so the JIP+ vote base seems to vote for LDP+.
o) In 徳島 (Tokushima) and 佐賀 (Saga) LDP+ is much stronger and DPJ+ much weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is because there are two rival LDP factions which are fighting it out in here.  The minority LDP factions 明政会 (Clean Politics Club) in Tokushima and 県農政協議会 (Agricultural Policy Council or just JA) in Saga has pretty much taken over the opposition space from DPJ+.  DPJ+ are weak in both prefectures already at the national level and this makes them even weaker at the local level.
p) In 香川 (Kagawa)  LDP+ is stronger and DPJ+ weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This seems to be because in rural Kagawa the DPJ+ has become non-existent where it is not even challenging LDP+ in 3- seat rural areas when it should be fairly easy for DPJ+ given their vote share to win 1 of these 3 seats.
q) In 佐賀(Saga) The LDP+ is stronger and DPJ+ weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is because the pro-farm JA (県農政協議会) faction of LDP has occupied the opposition space squeezing out the DPJ+.  
r) In 熊本(Kumamoto) DPJ+ is somewhat stronger than their national votes would suggest.  This is because of various LDP rebels seems to have formed de facto alliances with DPJ+ to take on the LDP+ in rural areas.
s) In 沖縄 (Okinawa)  DPJ+ is a lot stronger than their national vote share would suggest even as this is one of the weakest prefectures for LDP.  This is because the pro-LDP pro-JCP OSMP is fairly strong at the local level.  The saving grace for LDP+ is that the JIP+ in Okinawa which became ORA are aligned with LDP+ to counter OSMP.
 

FPG or Party of Future Generations (次世代の党)  has changed its name to 日本のこころを大切にする党 which roughly translates to Party to Cherish the Japanese Mind.

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I am not sure when if ever they will come out with the English name of the party.  I  guess for now I have  to label them PCJM.  I really doubt this will turn the party around.  

Why do the Japanese right give their parties such horrendously creepy names?

Because they like to use terminology used by the government back in the 1930s and early 1940s. Te basic idea is this: The Japanese hawkish right reject the history of post-1945 Japan.  They feel that what happen to Japan in 1945 was unjust and that the Japanese government in the 1930s and 1940s were merely doing what was needed to survive and was no different from what European state were doing.   They cannot come out and say things without hurting their own political prospects as well as angering USA.  So they get around this by using terminology that were uniquely prominent in the 1930s and 1940s.  Words like Cherish, Japanese Mind, and Next generation were prominent in government lexicon in the pre-1945 era.  The Abe administration does this too.  In a lot of its policy documents it keeps on using the word 億 (ichi oku) which means 100 million in Kanji/Chinese.  Back in the 1930s 1940s the Japanese government kept on using ichi oku to refer to the common fate of the 100 million Japanese.  After the war this term pretty much disappeared.  Now it is back.  These words are a signal to the hawkish right electorate that the dream is alive, even if it is underground. 

What are the demographics of this hawk revival electorate? Old? young? rich or poor? urban or rural? etc.

Younger than you'd expect but not overwhelmingly so, more urban than you'd expect but not overwhelmingly so, not sure about class. A geriatric mikan farmer from Shikoku might have ultranationalist tendencies, but he is not the activist 'base' for such things.

Are there particular geographic areas that have large concentrations of such stinkbats?

One clue would be to look at where the FPG and now PCJM PR votes came from in 2014.  They polled well in Tokyo (mostly due to Ishihara) and 岡山(Okayama) where PFG founder 平沼 赳夫( Hiranuma Takeo) is from.  Hiranuma is now back in LDP.  Another place where it did well is in rural 愛媛(Ehime) for some unknown reason.  Overall it does well in urban areas around Greater Tokyo but has circles of strength in the declining rural South.

Well, Hashimoto had sensed that DPJ back in 2013 was weak so he wanted to merge JRP with UP and move toward the center so he can capture the opposition space from DPJ and eventually displace LDP+KP as the ruling party.  Ishihara was opposed to this so they split.  Then while DPJ did not do well in 2014 elections they did emerge stronger than JIP, Hashimoto could see that his plans will not work out.  So he decided to capture the Far Right vote to be a critical swing bloc to help LDP+KP to get to 2/3 majority in Upper House to push up his price on the political market.  This did not jive with the JIP moderates who wanted to align with DPJ so ergo there had to be a split. 

Obviously under the current circumstances it seems hard to dislodge LDP from power anytime soon.  At best LDP can be contained but not stopped.  It has been stated that one way this can be broken is for LDP itself to split like in 1993 creating the space for the opposition to break in.  This of course is a two edged sword.  The LDP splinter can sometimes capture opposition space as to create a system where it is LDP vs LDP splinter and squeezing out the current opposition (DPJ JCP) all together.  In several prefectures the split of the LDP has actually squeezed the opposition without hurting the LDP political discourse/conflict moves to be within the LDP.  The most extreme and famous example of this is what took place in Osaka where the ORA was formed as a LDP splinter and in turn captured the entire non-LDP space before doing a minor version of it at the national level with the JRP.

To be fair Osaka is somewhat unique since there has always been resentment toward Tokyo so when Hashimoto who was elected governor of Osaka in 2008 as THE LDP candidate the ground was mature for a local Osaka pride revolt within the LDP against the LDP leadership in Osaka led by Hashimoto who did not get along with the Osaka LDP leadership.

One can see what took place by looking at the Osaka prefecture election results of 2007 2011 and 2015.

2007
            Contest         Won      Vote Share
LDP           67            52           35.12%
KP             23            23           18.53%
DPJ           38             25           23.53%
SDP            1               1             0.75%
JCP           45             11           20.60%
Indep       12               0             1.48%

Here Osaka seems to have pretty "normal" election results at the prefecture level with LDP-KP domination with DPJ winning in districts with larger number of seats and LDP-KP dominating the 1- seat districts.  JCP is stronger than normal here but that seems to be at the expense of DPJ-SDP.


Then ORA was created in 2010 was Hashimoto split the LDP.  ORA challenged the LDP-KP across the board in 2011 defeated it by a significant margin   Note that 29 out of the 61 ORA candidates in 2011 were LDP incumbents from 2007.


2011
              Contest        Won      Vote Share
LDP            42             17          18.34%
KP              22             21          14.49%
ORA            61             58          41.07%
YP                2               1            0.75%
DPJ             36             10         12.91%
SDP              1               0           0.31%
JCP             38              4          11.60%
Indep           4              0            0.54%
  
Here ORA was allied with YP and ORA-YP won 41.82% versus LDP-KP 32.83% and winning a majority of seats.  ORA seems to draw its vote equally from DPJ-SDP and JCP as LDP-KP as it drew on the anti-LDP vote bloc from DPJ-SDP and JCP.   After the election it was clear that ORA was pretty hostile toward DPJ-SDP and JCP as well as it was Hashimoto's goal to completely displace them as the alternative to LDP.  As a result a de facto LDP-KP DPJ-SDP and JCP alliance was formed to stop ORA.  But this merely pushed anti-ORA votes in the DPJ toward LDP in 2015.  Another thing that hurt DPJ and JCP is the ORA administration reduced the number of seats in the Osaka Prefecture Assembly in the name of efficiency.   This reduced the relative number of 4- and 5- seat districts and increased the number of 1- and 2- seat districts.  With LDP-KP and ORA having vote share larger than DPJ and JCP, the 2015 elections would be fought on even more disadvantageous ground for DPJ and JCP.


2015
           Contest       Won         Vote Share
LDP        52             26            29.39%
KP          15             15            10.73%
ORA        57             43            42.86%
DPJ         14              1               4.81%
JCP         35              3             11.83%
Indep       9               0               0.39%

This result pretty much finishes DPJ as a viable force in Osaka for a while with JCP completely marginalized keeping part of its vote bloc but not able to win any seats.  DPJ adds to this process by tactically supporting LDP in many districts where it only accelerates is decline.  LDP-KP did recover to push ORA below a majority but mostly by taking DPJ votes.

So the LDP civil war in Osaka merely serve to strengthen both LDP factions (LDP and ORA) at the expense of everyone else.

Now, since there are many 1- and 2- seats, these numbers might be warped by tactical voting and smaller parties might not put up candidates in these seats.  One way to work around this is to only look at 3- 4- 5- and 6- member districts in 2015 and calculate vote share based on these districts only.  Here all significant parties are likely to nominate candidates in these seats.  We can then compare these results to the same districts in 2011 and 2007.  Bases on that we have

2007
            Contest         Won      Vote Share
LDP           13              9           29.08%
KP               8              8           24.42%
DPJ             9               9          25.10%
SDP            1               1             2.67%
JCP             8               6           17.65%
Indep         5               0             1.07%


2011
              Contest        Won      Vote Share
LDP              7              4           14.71%
KP                8              8           20.78%
ORA              8             8           32.91%
YP                1              1            1.63%
DPJ             10             6           16.46%
SDP              1              0           1.06%
JCP               7              4          12.26%
Indep           1              0            0.20%


2015
          Contest       Won         Vote Share
LDP          9              7             19.37%
KP            7              7             18.55%
ORA          9              9            36.91%
DPJ           8              1             11.49%
JCP           7              3             13.48%
Indep       2               0               0.21%

Here we can see that DPJ's drop is not as dramatic as the overall numbers show but is severe enough to make it only somewhat viable in on districts larger than 3- seats.  Of course the narrative is the same.  First for 2011 DPJ-SDP and JCP votes drifted to ORA in addition to the votes ORA took from LDP which it split out of.  The in 2015 DPJ-SDP continued to lose support to both LDP-KP and ORA.   And that is without the affect of tactical voting.  The 2015 numbers are fairly close the PR section for 2014 Lower House elections in Osaka so this methodology I choose seems to be fairly valid.  

It seems  井上義行 (Inoue Yoshiyuki) who quit AEJ recently has decided to caucus with LDP.  He was elected in 2013 on the Upper House YP PR slate.  I guess he is angling to join LDP so he can get renominated and reelected in 2019.


If seems 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) who quit PFG (now PCJM) recently has decided to join ORA.

It seems Jan 1 2016 is the deadline for PCJM and AEJ to get their number of MPs to be 5 or above or lose government funding for the party.

Current Japan RCP Cabinet Approval rating (blue for approve and red for disapprove).  Abe Cabinet average approval now back up to where it was in early Summer before the security bill controversy.  

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Asahi reports that Abe is considering same-day parliament elections to help boost chances of gaining seats in upper house so that his government can have necessary 2/3 majority in both chambers to change constitution.

Abe and the LDP will run in the July Upper House elections on the platform of getting a 2/3 majority for Constitutional change.  ORA is also running arguing that a vote for it is a vote for ORA to be a part of that 2/3 majority in the Upper House.

Meanwhile, it seems that after DPJ and JIP formed a joint caucus in the Lower House paving the way for a similar move in the Upper House followed by a possible merger, the JIP and AEJ decided to form a joint caucus in the Upper House.  This complicates DPJ-JIP alliance and merger plans.  The DPJ seems to be fairly upset about this as they were not consulted on this move by JIP.  I guess JIP is trying to increase its bargaining position vis-a-vis DPJ to forming a bloc with AEJ.  AEJ needs this as it is down to just 4 MPs and in danger of getting is government funding cut off for falling below 5 MPs.

Professor of Sociology and Political Science 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) came out with projections of election results if there were a double election which is fairly negative for DPJ JIP.  He has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        68 (of which 20 PR) for a total of 131 
KP          11 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  22
ORA         5 (of which  2 PR) for a total of   10
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        27 (of which 10 PR) for a total of  44
JIP           3 (of which   2 PR) for a total of   4
JCP          9 (of which   6 PR) for a total of  17
PLP          1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

Which should give a easy 2/3 majority for Constitutional revision. 

For Lower House he projects

LDP             302       (230 District 72 PR)
KP                 37        (   9 District 28 PR)
ORA              15         (   6 District  9 PR)
PCJM              0
AEJ                0
DPJ               77        ( 39 District 38 PR)
JIP                11        (  3 District   8 PR)
PLP                 1        (  1 District   0 PR)
SDP                1        (  0 District   1 PR)
JCP               26        (  2 District  24 PR)

Which is very similar to 2014 with a small swing to LDP-KP and JIP and ORA losing out slightly from the JIP split. 

The magazine 週刊文春 (Shukan Bunshun) came out with their own projections for Upper House elections which are somewhat more pro-DPJ than other media projections.  They have

LDP       41 District 17 PR = 58
KP          7  District   6 PR = 13
ORA       2 District    6 PR  =  8
PCJM      0 District    1 PR  =  1
AEJ        1 District    0 PR  =  1
NPR                                  =  0
DPJ       15 District   9 PR  = 24
JIP         1 District    1 PR   = 2
PLP        1 District    1 PR   = 2
SDP       0 District    1 PR   = 1
OSMP     1 District       PR   =1
JCP         3 District   6 PR   = 9
Ind         1 District             = 1  

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It actually projected 2 seats for independents but I just assumed one of them must be OSMP.  I have no idea what the other one would be, most likely some sort of pro-DPJ independent running with support from JIP and/or JCP.

Latest NHK poll has

LDP     37.5
KP        4.3
ORA      1.9
ARG      0.1
JIP        0.3
DPJ       8.1
PLP       0.3
SDP      0.6
JCP       4.2

Using my rule of thumb of LDP+KP PR vote should be NHK poll of LDP+KP+(2-3), that should give LDP+KP around 44%-45% of the vote if elections were held today. 

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Newspaper 毎日新聞 (Mainichi) came out with their own projections of a double election.

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For Upper House it has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        63 (of which 18 PR) for a total of 128  
KP          14 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  25
ORA         8 (of which  5 PR) for a total of   13
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        23 (of which   9 PR) for a total of  40
JIP           1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
JCP          8 (of which   7 PR) for a total of  16
PLP          1 (of which   0 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

A easy 2/3 majority for LDP+KP+ORA+PCJM



Then we have Lower House election projections
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LDP             301       (225 District 76 PR)
KP                 34        (   8 District 26 PR)
ORA              23         (   7 District 16 PR)
PCJM              0
AEJ                0
DPJ               75        ( 39 District 36 PR)
JIP                  5        (  3 District   2 PR)
PLP                 3        (  2 District   1 PR)
SDP                2        (  1 District   1 PR)
JCP               23        (  1 District  22 PR)
ARG                1        ( 1 District    0 PR)

To some extent this project is more depression to the opposition.  It seems to project LDP-KP vote PR share to be around 50%-51%  from 46.8% in 2014 and 48.9% in 2013.  It seems that given the limited gains LDP got in FPTP seats despite this vote share was limited because DPJ-JIP are expected to have good tactically alliances.  So this projection says that so much of the JIP base has gone over to ORA that even a DPJ-JIP-SDD-PLP with outside support from JCP will still get steamrolled by LDP-KP.

These results seems contrary to what the implied vote shares of LDP-KP will get based on the NHK poll so we will have to see.  One thing is for sure, even if this poll exaggerates the size of the LDP-KP vote share, unless DPJ JIP and JCP find a way to have alliances across the board the LDP-KP-ORA+PCJM will have a 2/3 majority in the Upper House given the LDP likely sweep of the single members districts.  T 

It is interesting that all polls seems to indicate that a majority of the voting population seems to be opposed to changing Article 9 but it seems  that this upcoming election will give a clear mandate for such a change.  If these were the results then Abe will go down as one of the if not the most powerful and impact PMs in postwar Japan.  Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

Surely, since constitutional amendments require a referendum, it will then simply fail to pass at that stage? (unless Abe succeeds in shifting popular opinion, that is)

wow
such success
so consequential
many transformative


I'll rephrase some of what jaichind was saying, or at least implying: Abe's superpower seems to be that everything he wants to do that is bad for Japan or the world gets done as he wants it no matter what the apparent odds against it are or how unpopular it seems at the start of the process to be. The drawback is that nothing he wants to do that is good for Japan and the world goes as planned.

Yes.  But at this stage nothing that Abe manages to pull off will surprise me.  He is pretty much going to run in 2016 on the platform of Constitutional change and various other nice sounding but empty slogans in a environment where the polls in theory say that a significant plurality are against Constitutional change and will now somehow cruise to a landslide victory.  So if he can pull that off (which is still a if so far) then why is it he cannot charm/convince a majority of those that will bother to vote to vote for these constitutional amendments.  It is not that these amendments are bad as all things equal I think they make sense and I would actually back them all things equal.  It is more passing them does nothing to help the economy or demographic situation.  I am just shocked that Abe is able to get away with all this while all his various campaigns "womenonomics" "Three arrows" "New Three arrows"  "100 million campaign" (there is actually a "100 million" Minister whose job is to build a "Society in Which All 100 million People can be Active" ) etc etc are all just going nowhere and accomplishing nothing.  And we are talking about him being in power 3 years already.

I was more thinking about how he is able to completely transform the partisan alignment where he pretty much occupied the entire political space squeezing the DPJ on all sides.  He was able to turn a LDP spliter, ORA, into a party that takes DPJ votes but helps Abe with his political agenda which is the best of all worlds.  If he holds a double election in 2016 and wins in a landslide that would be 3 Lower House landslides in a row and 2 Upper House landslides in a row.  No LDP leader has every come close to doing that.  Even for Koizumi the 2003 Lower House and 2004 Upper House election were narrow victories.  His victories are so massive that even the JCP is considering having an alliance with centrist anti-LDP opposition. 

Yeah, I got what you were saying, it's just absolutely ridiculous and depressing that THIS is what Abe is successful and consequential and transformative at and everything that could actually HELP Japan is falling flat.

This article

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/16/national/osaka-ishin-walks-tightrope-big-top/#.Vpr0svkrKUk

Points out that if there is a post 2016 election deal between LDP-KP and ORA for a 2/3 majority for Constitution revision, then what does ORA get out of it.  KP has already been bribed by exempting food and drings from next year's planned consumption tax increases.    Of course this blows a hole in the budget mean to shore up Japan pension system.  How will ORA be bribed ?  It seems that Hashimoto has the dream of merging Osaka City and Osaka Prefecture to create Osaka Metropolis as almost a second capital to Tokyo.  It is obvious that Hashimoto will demand all sort of financial resources his dream a reality.  I guess even if there is a LDP-KP-ORA 2/3 majority in the Upper House after the July 2016 elections, Abe will have to borrow from the future some more to make his dream of Constitution change a reality.   

Mayoral election for 大津市 (Ōtsu) which is the largest city in 滋賀 (Shiga) is today.  Incumbent 越直美(Yue Naomi) who was elected in 2012 with DPJ-SDP support along with anti-LDP Shiga fromer governor 嘉田 由紀子 (Kada Yukiko) who help found PLP with Ozawa before retiring from national politics.  Usually in re-elections all parities except for JCP tends to back the incumbent.  In this case it seems in addition to JCP LDP-KP will back Prefectural assmebly member and former YP member 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko).  LDP-KP knows that beating  越直美(Yue Naomi) will be hard so they wanted to expand their voting base by getting  蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko) who is now caucuses with a group that is non-LDP  to run.  Most likely this will not work and   Incumbent 越直美(Yue Naomi) should win.  

 

NHK exit poll just out for 大津市 (Ōtsu) mayor race

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Incumbent DPJ-SDP backed 越直美(Yue Naomi) ahead but with less than 50% of the vote.  LDP-KP backed 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko) behind by around 10%.  The other 2 candidates are one JCP-backed independent and one SDP rebel.

Back in 2012 it was 越直美(Yue Naomi) 44% LDP-KP backed incumbent 36% JCP 20%.  At age 36 back in 2012  越直美(Yue Naomi) is one of the youngest mayors ever in Japan.  These exit poll results seems to have a similar partisan mix as 2012.

For 大津市 (Ōtsu) mayor race so far it is

DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi)    40.0%
LDP-KP backed 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko)  36.7%
SDP rebel                                               14.8%
JCP                                                          8.5%

So the DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi) is under-perfoming exit polls so far.  It is also clear that the SDP rebel (who is also a famous singer) is pull ing a lot of the JCP vote from 2012 and it seem a part of the DPJ vote base as well.

Yes.  Lets be clear.  I actually do back, on principle, the Constitutional Amendments Abe wants to put in place.  I think where it gets silly is when Abe goes around bribing various political players to back his plan which represents an opportunity cost relative to other problems he should be working on.

For 大津市 (Ōtsu) mayor race DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi)  had a late surge so the final result are

DPJ-SDP supported 越直美(Yue Naomi)    42.1%
LDP-KP backed 蔦田恵子 (Tsutata Keiko)  35.5%
SDP rebel                                               14.2%
JCP                                                          8.2%

Turnout did move up from 2012. 

松野未佳 (Matsuno Mika), daughter of JIP leader 松野頼久 (Matsuno Yorihisa) wins Miss Japan Contest

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Kyoto Mayoral elections today.  Major blow to JCP.  The LDP-KP-DPJ backed incumbent was running for re-election in this JCP stronghold.  The incumbent was expected to win but it was expected that perhaps the JCP could keep it close like in 2012.  Instead the JCP was beaten almost 2 to 1

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It one looks at the JCP and non-JCP voet in Kyoto
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We see that the JCP (purple line) mostly kept it close to the non-JCP vote.  But this election that gap was blown wide open.  And turnout, which is the green line, while it fell from 2012, did not fall dramatically so it was not an issue of the pro-JCP floating vote not turning out

Looking at exit polls
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Where the LDP+KP voter was 46% (39%+7%) (many KP supporters I suspect lie to exit pollsters and claim they are LDP instead of KP voters as I cannot believe the KP has only 7% support in Kyoto) of the electorate while the JCP voter was 14% of the electorate shows a major erosion of the JCP machine.  DPJ, which mostly as a result of JCP strength, and are around 10% of are mostly anti-JCP and joined up with LDP-KP just like last few election cycles.  If this trends continues even if DPJ-JCP gangs up in Upper Hose elections this Summer the LDP-KP will still win.

Kyoto is a Communist stronghold? It's amazing, really-- who would have thought Japan would have been perhaps the only developed country where the Communist Party remained relevant?

If you read the platform of the JCP you would find that it is mostly a European Social Democratic Party.  Also Kyodo is a JCP stronghold in the sense that it is capable of winning elections on its own even though it is infrequent.   It is the largest non-LDP political force there and in fact, as I pointed out, often force the creation of anti-JCP united front from time to time.

have the JCP ever mused about changing their name or is there less stigma attached to "communism" in Japan?

There were discussions on the side about this during the 2000s when the surge of the DPJ was slowing squeezing out the JCP which had reached a postwar high back in the late 1990s.  These talks died down when DPJ fell apart in 2012 which benefited the JCP in 2013 and 2014 elections.  If JCP support starts falling again there might be more talks about renaming the party.

Does this have anything to do with the amount of Zainichi there? I'm pretty sure Kyoto has a fair amount.

That could be.  I am not sure about that.  My understanding was always that Kyodo labor unions has been unusually strong.  Also Kyodo is a university town so the center-left is stronger there as well.

ARG, which stands for Assembly Reform Grouping was my translation of JIP splinter 改革結集の会.  Now they have an official name which is "Vision of Reform."

LDP MP 宮崎謙介 (Miyazaki Kensuke) announced that he will resign over a sex scandal.

宮崎謙介
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Miyazaki married another LDP MP 金子惠美 (Kaneko Megumi) in early 2015.  Both were elected in the LDP 2012 landslide in DPJ leaning districts and belonged to the same LDP faction.

金子惠美
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Miyazaki created a large controversy recently when he announced he will take paternity leave to help take care of the child that Kaneko just gave birth to just a few days ago.  He said he was doing it a symbol of gender equity in society where paternity leave is frowned upon.  Many in the opposition said the he is doing this only to get media attention.

This media attention lead to a recently revelations that Miyazaki is having an affair with an actress 宮澤磨由 (Miyazawa MigakuYukari) and was spending nights with her a couple of days before his wife was due to give birth.

宮澤磨由
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The Japanese media took great glee repeatedly discussing how Miyazawa has a F-Cup size bra.  When this came to light, and I am pretty sure under pressure from Abe, Miyazaki resigned.

Miyazak's district which is the Kyodo 3rd district has a historical DPJ lean.  In 2014 the district was won by LDP because of the DPJ and JIP running separately.

LDP   35.8%
DPJ   33.1%
JCP   16.1%
JIP    15.0%

In 2012 it was

LDP   31.6%
DPJ   31.5%
JRP    22.5%
JCP    14.3%

The DPJ runner up who was represented this district 2003-2012 was elected on the PR slate in 2012 and 2014  is said to be eager to run in the by-election.  Looks like ORA will also run a candidate.  If there we a situation where the opposition should be able to win a by-election it should be this one.  of course LDP might be too embarrassed to run a candidate and might up backing a KP candidate or even backing ORA

It's been (will be, for those of us Westerners literally living in the past) 5 years since the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.


2,561 people are still missing, sadly. With nearly 16,000 confirmed deaths, this would bring the estimated death toll to over 18,000.

On a more positive note, Japan's tourist sector has more than just recovered: it's booming. In 2010 8.6 million foreigners went to Japan. In 2011, less than the half visited. In 2015, over 19 million people visited Japan, marking the first year ever that more people visited Japan than Japanese visiting other countries.

Informative presentation from Nikkei: http://asia.nikkei.com/static/vdata/shinsai2016-photo/prj2/shinsai2016-photo/index.html

Japan's Shinkansen now connects (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/03/26/national/hokkaido-shinkansen-line-opens-cutting-tokyo-hakodate-travel-time-by-53-minutes/#.VvgHDOIrLIV) Tokyo to Hokkaido:

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And in case anyone is wondering, the Sapporo connection won't be completed for another fifteen years.  

A-l-m-o-s-t makes you pine for the days when this badass mofo would bust heads to get things done.

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(joking)

District court in Kanagawa issues injunction against man planning to hold anti-Korean rally in Kawasaki, noted incomprehensible shrimp-shaped city and sister city of Baltimore and Sheffield, in the first test of a hate-speech law passed last week. (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/06/03/national/crime-legal/japanese-court-issues-first-ever-injunction-hate-speech-rally/)

I guess with the 2016 Upper House elections behind us I will update this thread on latest developments.

It seems that 小沢 一郎 (Ozawa Ichirō) has renamed his PLP to 自由党(Liberal Party), the same name as the center-right opposition party of 1998-2003 until he merged it with DPJ.

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Not sure what he is up to.  I guess it this is his attempt to try to swing Right to try to capture anti-LDP center-right votes.

HP move objectively but if it poaches votes from the revisionists I'm all for it.

This Sunday 10/16 新潟(Niigata) will have a governor race.  The pro-LDP incumbant is retiring so it is an open seat.  DP under Renho is continuing its alliance with JCP in 1-on-1 races.  It will be a showdown between a LDP-KP backed candidates versus a SDP-GP-NSP-JCP backed candidate with de facto DP support since the candidate is a DP party member.  The joint opposition candidate is running on a nuclear free platform and has been closing the gap on the LDP candidate.  The LDP-KP candidate still has the upper hand but it seems the election will be close.  Niigata has a DP tilt nationally but in local elections LDP is much stronger than its national election result.  The only chance for the opposition is to try to nationalize the election by pushing the anti-nuclear line.

GP and NSP are?

Green Party and New Socialist Party (Far Left SDP breakaway)

How powerful are prefectural governments? I always was under the impression the central government was pretty overpowered, and therefore they could do jack about nuclear plants or what have you.

Totally true.  In fact prefectural assembly power has decreased since the 1970s when the budget regulations changed so that prefectural governments can no long run budget deficits.  For backward prefectures this means they are totally dependent on central government subsidies to survive.  This is the main reason LDP dominates local politics.  Of course often the governors races  do get turned into a de facto referendum on some local issue (like nuclear power plants) which does upset the applecart although the mandate is not binding.   The 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor race back in July was successfully turned by the opposition into a referendum on nuclear power and pulled in enough anti-nuclear LDP support to defeat the LDP-KP candidate.

Latest polls show the 新潟(Niigata) governor race hat tighten where it is LDP-KP 42 DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 41.  Renho seems to be jumping in to do joint campaign rally appearances with LP SDP and JCP leaders.

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Campaign poster asking for mass "emergency" rally for opposition candidate featuring Renho

I guess she is putting her prestige on the line to try to get a victory and grow momentum for her leadership.

Has there ever been any discussion about changing local government in Japan or abolishing the Prefectures?

Sunday 10/23 there are two by-elections for the Lower House.  They are 東京(Tokyo) 10th district and 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district.   In 東京(Tokyo) 10th district it is LDP incumbent 小池 百合子 Koike Yuriko was elected governor of Tokyo as an independent defeating the LDP candidate.  In 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district the LDP incumbent 鳩山邦夫 (Hatoyama Kunio) who is a grandson and a brother of a PM passed away.  鳩山邦夫 (Hatoyama Kunio) bolted from LDP with his brother 鳩山 由紀夫 Hatoyama Yukio in 1993 and later founded DPJ with his brother.  He later broke with his brother and rejoined the LDP in 2000. 

Both seats are lean LDP seats.  In theory the LDP should win both by-elections but the LDP nomination strategy seems to have botched and created a chance for the united opposition.  In both districts the SDP-LP-JCP are backing the DP candidate in a continuation of the grand alliance of the opposition.  In 東京(Tokyo) 10th district the rebel LDP Koike controls the LDP branch and nominated a pro-Koike incumbent LDP MP who was elected on the PR slate but now want to win in an district race.  This LDP candidate is backed  Koike in the Tokyo Governor race over the LDP candidate and has an outstanding censure by the Tokyo LDP branch. This candidate has already announced that if he is censured then he will quit the LDP.  So the LDP voter in the  東京(Tokyo) 10th district will have to deal with a LDP candidate that he/she knows is likely to quit the LDP.  This gives the DP a chance.  In 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district the two LDP factions are each backing a separate candidate one of which is son of the deceased MP 鳩山邦夫 (Hatoyama Kunio).  Both will run as an independent and if one of them wins they will be retroactively nominated by the LDP. In theory this should give the DP a solid shot to win.  But in many cases like this the polarization of the two rival LDP factions actually leads to tactical voting by the anti-LDP voter for one or the other LDP candidate since both are running as an independent. 

If the LDP manages to win both seats it will be a blow to the new DP leader Renho. 

what kind of areas are they? Working-class?

東京(Tokyo) 10th is urban upper to middle class while 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th district is suburban lower middle class.

Not that I am aware of.  Almost impossible for this to take place as there are too much regional prefecture identities.   

新潟(Niigata) governor election voting over.  Asahi Exit polls show a shocking win for the united opposition candidate: DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 51 LDP-KP 47

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NHK exit poll has opposition ahead as well.

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Shows large defection from LDP voters (red) which are 42% of the voters for the opposition candidate (Blue) while KP (pink) and 3% of the voters (a severe undercount as many KP voters mostly claim that they are LDP voters) mostly voted LDP-KP.  DP (which is also labeled Blue) which are 15% of the voters and JCP (purple) which are 3% voted opposition.  Others (grey) which are 32% of the votes which contain ORA voters as well as soft DP supporters lean toward the opposition.

NHK calls it for the opposition.  With 4% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 48.3% LDP-KP 50.3% but the early count has a high rural bias.

With 30% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 51.5% LDP-KP 47.3%

With 57% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 51.6% LDP-KP 46.9%

This is the first time that the 新潟(Niigata) governorship has been captured by someone without the support of the LDP (or its predecessors)  in the post WWII era.

With 70% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 52.7% LDP-KP 45.6%

In the 2015 prefectural assembly elections for 新潟(Niigata) the Right (LDP, KP, JIP) Left (DPJ, SDP, Local centrist opposition alliance, JCP) vote share split was around 55-45.  For this sort of result to take place it must mean a significant defection of anti-nuclear LDP and ORA voters to vote for the united opposition.  It seems that the opposition strategy of using the nuclear restart issue as a way to nationalize this election worked.  In many ways even at the local level 新潟(Niigata) has been trending away from LDP.  In the 2007 and 2011 prefecture assembly elections the Right (LDP, KP, YP[for 2011]) Left (DPJ, SDP, Local centrist opposition alliance, JCP) vote split has been more like 60-40.  The 2015 prefectural assembly elections represented a swing away from LDP even as the national environment was a lot more favorable to the LDP in 2015 than in 2011 and 2007.

With 88% of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 52.6% LDP-KP 45.8%

With all of the vote counted it is DP-LP-SDP-GP-NSP-JCP 52.2% LDP-KP 45.9%

Exit polls were off by 1% in favor of LDP-KP

Northern Japan best Japan.

Not bad. Good to see the Opposition can some notches under their belt.

If you're a Japanese politics watcher, watch the new Godzilla movie, Shin Godzilla. Really great satire.

Haha, yeah, I saw that Opening Night and it was dead on. I was surprised by all the politics that was in it, and how accurately they captured how the Japanese Government would react to a giant monster attack.

Thanks for the recommendation. I love monster flicks.

I did look into this issue of Prefecture Governor and nuclear power plants.  It seems that even though the governor has no legal power over nuclear power being put back online, it is customary that the power company gets signoff from the governor.   So in 新潟(Niigata) where the vote for the anti-nuclear opposition candidate does make sense for the anti-nuclear vote.  Main problem is that Japan has a power shortage.  I was just there again back in Aug and in Tokyo the AC situation was pretty bad.  This cannot continue forever. 

Exit polls show that pro-Koekie LDP rebel but nominated by LDP has won in 東京(Tokyo) 10th over DP and deceased MP Hatoyama's son won in 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th over its LDP rival and DP. 

NHK 東京(Tokyo) 10th exit seems to indicate LDP 57.5 DP 38.9.  Back in 2014 it was LDP 50.7 DPJ 23.9 JCP 15.4 PLP 5.2 PFG 4.7.  So LDP maintained the level of support from LDP-PFG while DP mostly has DPK-JCP-PLP.   Looks like Koike is able to transfer her support to her protege on top of the LDP base which stayed loyal despite the LDP candidate being a pro-Koike rebel.

It seems that in 福岡(Fukuoka) 6th deceased MP Hatoyama's son who was retroactively nominated by the LDP for winning has captured 70%??!! of the vote.  Wow. There must have been a sympathy factor that extended across partisan lines. 

NHK 東京(Tokyo) 10th exit poll (LDP as red and DP as blue)

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breakdown by party supporters

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some LDP voters (red) did vote DP while DP (blue), KP (pink) and JCP (purple) voted for what their partisan alignment indicated.  Many KP supporters claim to to be LDP supporters.  Non-aligned (grey) which has JRP and soft DP supporters seems to split their vote down the middle.  This shows the many soft DP voters went LDP this time giving the LDP a solid win.

福岡(Fukuoka) 6th exit poll with Hatoyama (LDP) as soft pink and the local rival LDP candidate as solid pink.  DP is blue

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breakdown by party has

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LDP (red) mostly went for Hatoyama as did KP (pink).  DP voters (blue) had significant defection to  Hatoyama.  Non-aligned voters (greg) which are mostly JRP and soft DP supporters also went to Hatoyama.

東京(Tokyo) 10th with 80% of the vote counted it is  LDP 62.2 DP 36.6
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with 13% of the vote counted it is LDP 58.5 DP 24.8 local LDP 14.9

東京(Tokyo) 10th with 99% of the vote counted it is  LDP 60.4 DP 37.4
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with 29% of the vote counted it is LDP 66.7 DP 20.8 local LDP 11.7

Turnout for 東京(Tokyo) 10th was very low giving the machine parties LDP-KP a advantage beyond what it had in 2014.

東京(Tokyo) 10th with 99% of the vote counted it is  LDP 60.4 DP 37.4
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with 84% of the vote counted it is LDP 61.3 DP 22.0 local LDP 15.2

Exit polls seems too optimistic for Hatoyama.

東京(Tokyo) 10th with all votes counted it is  LDP 60.3 DP 37.5
福岡(Fukuoka) 6th with all votes counted it is LDP 62.2 DP 23.4 local LDP 13.0

Yikes. Not good.

RIP RENHO

SAVIOUR OF JAPANESE LEFT (2016-16)

Is there any way for the opposition to spin this as a split decision with the Niigata race?

LDP rebel Tokyo governor 小池 百合子 (Koike Yuriko) looks set to create her own regional party in Tokyo made up for pro-Koike LDP rebels to compete in the 2017 Tokyo Prefectural elections.  While this is bad news for LDP it is even worse news for DP.  Koike's party will most likely take up most of the anti-LDP space in Tokyo completely pushing out DP and JCP.

Projections of what the result might look like with the Koike Party in the 2017 Tokyo Prefectural elections which I suspect will be backed by Hashimoto's JRP.
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LDP               30
KP                 23

Koike Party    49
JRP                 1

DP                10
SNT                2  東京・生活者ネットワーク Seikatsusha Network of Tokyo is a Tokyo Left regional party

JCP               12

They even broke it out by election district

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Back in 2013 when DP was crushed in a landslide defeat it was

LDP             59
KP               23

JRP               2
YP                7

DP             15
DP rebel       1
SNT             3

JCP             17

As one can see, if these projections end up being correct Tokyo will go the way of 大阪(Osaka) where DP and JCP are pushed out of the political space completely with LDP-KP battles a Right wing Third Pole
opposition party with DP and even JCP voters having to take sides between LDP-KP and the Third Pole party.  It also seems that Koike Party will eat into LDP but not the KP vote which makes sense.

In fact the collapse of DP (red) and JCP (orange) will be quite dramatic when compared to 2005 and 2009 (when DPJ captured power in the Tokyo Prefecture Assembly)

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It seems that LDP rebel Tokyo governor 小池 百合子 (Koike Yuriko) has started talks with DP on an alliance in the upcoming Tokyo Prefecture elections.  This seems to indicate that she has national ambitions.  If her goal is to get the most number of seats in the upcoming Tokyo Prefecture election, running a Third Pole campaign that captures LDP JRP and DP votes is the best way which at the same time would destroy DP in Tokyo.  Of course doing that would cut her off from capturing national power since the experience of Hashimoto's JRP of 2012-2016 has demonstrated that while JRP can capture some LDP and a good chunk of DP votes it could not displace LDP-KP nor destroy the DP completely which makes JRP a regional Osaka party and a LDP B-team.  By trying to form an alliance with DP, Koike seems to be risking angering LDP but at the benefit of a potential long-term alliance with DP and perhaps even JCP to displace LDP-KP at the national level with perhaps her as PM.

I don't really follow Japanese politics but I am curious why is LDP so popular without any opposition?
Is Japan really that right-wing?  How do young people vote?

Last time, young voters (including the newly enfranchised 18 and 19 year olds) swung quite heavily behind the LDP (50 percent of them voted for the LDP and its junior ally NK). Coming into political conscienceness in the chaos of the DPJ era probably soured their opinion of the opposition. And politics in general, which is why vote turnout for the youth is pretty lousy. (The LDP literally released a manga starring a high school girl learning the importance of voting which is a pretty Japanese thing to happen).

The Youth vote Right, mainly LDP.  LDP wins for 2 reasons.  The center-left opposition does not present a vision of the future other than preserving the status quo.  At least LDP and Right opposition Third Pole parties does present a vision. Also LDP dominates local politics because local governments needs LDP dominated central government subsidies to survive which in turn means that LDP has a very rich bench of local politicians to run for national office.  Since Japanese vote by personality and not party this gives the LDP a big edge.

The newspaper Fuji came out with a Tokyo Prefecture projection:  It has

LDP               54
KP                 23

Koike Party    15
JRP                 1

DP                14
SNT                3  
Independent   1

JCP               16

Whereas 2013 it was

LDP             59
KP               23

JRP               2
YP                7

DP             15
DP rebel       1
SNT             3

JCP             17

So Fuji mostly projects that Koike Party will take over the old Third Pole vote of 2013 (JRP and YP) cut a bit into DP and LDP vote but nothing dramatic.  If these were the results then it is critical that Koike does need to form an alliance with DP in order to take control of the Tokyo Prefectural assembly.  The word is her plans is try to form an anti-LDP majority bloc post election based on Koike Party, DP and KP with outside support from JCP.  

Some updates, especially on the Tokyo and Koike situation.

The original plan was for Tokyo Gov Koike, who on paper is still part of LDP, to form an alliance with her new party  (都民ファーストの会) which in English is Tokyo People First Association (TPFA) with DP and KP to contest and win a majority in the upcoming Tokyo Prefecture elections in the Summer.  KP already defected from LDP to join forces with Koike.  Tokyo is the second prefecture where the local KP has broken its alliance with LDP (Okinawa is the other prefecture.) 

Then came the 千代田区(Chiyoda Ward) head election.  The current LDP incumbent had defected to the Koike camp and ran as a pro-Koike candidate.  The Tokyo LDP and DP split into pro-Koike and anti-Koike camps.  The anti-Koike LDP ran their own candidate while the anti-Koike DP faction joined JCP to back a center-left candidate.  The result was a landslide win for the pro-Koike incumbent

Pro-Koike incumbent      65.2%  (backed by pro-Koike LDP factions, pro-Koike DP factions, KP)
LDP                               18.0%  (backed by anti-Koike LDP factions)
Center-left Ind.              15.8%  (backed by anti-Koike DP factions, JCP)

As a result of this win and given the fact that Renho is not gaining traction in the polls and running into problems within the DP, Koike pretty much called off the alliance with DP and will pretty much run TPFA in alliance with KP in the Summer Tokyo Prefecture elections and calling for pro-Koike LDP and DP factions to join TPFA and run under her banner.  LDP and DP are splintering badly in Tokyo as large blocs of LDP and DP factions and supporters are rushing to join TPFA as Koike's popularity surges in Tokyo and also at the national level.

The latest projection by Nikkan Gendai has it at

TPFA        59
KP           23

LDP         23

JRP           0

DP            6
SNT          1

JCP         15

Whereas 2013 it was

LDP             59
KP               23

JRP               2
YP                7

DP             15
DP rebel       1
SNT             3

JCP             17

With KP and JCP mostly keeping their base but TPFA taking over a good part of the LDP DP and JRP vote base, wiping out JRP and almost wiping out DP along the way while LDP is reduced to a rump of itself.

It is totally possible if Koike wins a solid majority in the Tokyo Prefecture elections in the Summer it might trigger her to go national and try to create a Koike natoinal Third Pole party which would eat into the LDP and DP votes alike.  

In 2016 Upper House elections the PR vote was

LDP+
LDP       35.91%
KP         13.52%

Third Pole
ORA        9.20%
PJK         1.31%
NPR        1.04%
HRP        0.65%

Center-Left
DP        20.98%
SDP        2.74%
PLP         1.91%
VPA        0.89%

JCP      10.74%

Which in historical context of looking at PR vote share by bloc (LDP+, Third Pole, Center-Left, JCP)


Assuming that Renho make a recovery and is able to gain some traction as a viable opposition leader and at least maintain what DP achieved in 2016 and Koike does not go national  a back of the envelope of what the next Lower House election (2018?) PR vote share would be

LDP+
LDP       37.69%
KP         13.11%

Third Pole
JRP         9.23%
PJK         0.65%
HRP        0.52%

Center-Left
DP        22.12%
SDP        2.48%
LP          2.27%

JCP       11.11%

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2018?     50.80              10.40             26.87            11.11

But if Koike remains popular and creates a national version of the Koike Party there might be large realignments.  KP which have become more negative about its alliance with LDP over time will most likely break off its alliance with LDP for an alliance with the Koike Party.   PJK which is fairly anti-Koike will most likely ally with LDP.  JRP might also join the Koike Party-KP alliance.  The Center-Left parties most likely will continue their alliance with JCP in response.  Turnout would surge across the board which will help Koike and hurt KP.  JCP in theory loses vote share but the JCP core would also turnout in force in such a realignment environment.  

My guess on what the PR vote would look like in such a situation would be

LDP+
LDP       28.80%
PJK          0.65%

Third Pole
Koike    20.31%
KP         12.22%
JRP         5.26%
HRP        0.49%

Center-Left
DP        17.39%
SDP        2.24%
LP          1.48%

JCP       11.08%

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2018?     29.45              38.28             21.11            11.08

Which means the Center-Left plus JCP will fall to 2012 2013 levels of support when Third Pole parties JRP and YP were at their strongest. 

Assuming that Koike Party and KP forms an alliance and the Center-Left parties from an alliance with JCP then the base vote for each bloc in FPTP seats would look like

LDP-PJK               29.45%
Koike-KP              32.53%
DP-SDP-LP-JCP    32.19%
JRP                       5.26%

A three way battle royal between the three blocs!!  Of course if JRP joins Koike-KP then it will be

LDP-PJK               29.45%
Koike-KP-JRP       37.79%
DP-SDP-LP-JCP    32.19%

With Koike bloc having the advantage.

Note that in either case the LDP-PJK will do better in the FPTP seats then these votes shares would imply.  LDP still has strong grassroots organizations so they will still have some natural advantages in candidate selection.  Also LDP support is more concentrated in Southern Japan where they will swill sweep the FPTP seats despite the Koike Party split.  Most likely in either case LDP will emerge as the largest party but for sure not a majority.  

A lot of possible action depending on what happens in the Tokyo Prefecture elections in the Summer.
  

LDP will change its by-laws this weekend to allow Abe have a third consecutive term as LDP president which means he can in theory stay on as LDP President and PM until 2021. 

Abe is running into a scandal where a new Shinto based elementary school which was suppose to be called the "Shinzo Abe Elementary School" and has Abe's wife as honorary principle in Osaka has been exposed to have bought its land for 10% of the market price from the government.  Abe claims he has nothing to do with this sale while the optics are not good there is no smoking gun/

Sad!


Not great!

Nikkei Shimbun poll

Will Abe be able to continue to be PM until 2021

Yes    63%
No     28%

Who deserves to be PM after next election

Abe                        21%
Koike                      16%
Koizumi Junior        16%

Note that Renho is nowhere on this list.  If LDP/Abe is to be beaten anytime in the next couple of election cycles it will have to be beaten internally. 

Koike is spending a lot of time looking into mismanagement by ex-governor Ishihara Senior and at the same time targeting Ishihara Junior who is also the leader of the LDP in Tokyo.  LDP General Secretary 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) made a statement that the the LDP has taken note that Tokyo Governor and nominally LDP member Koike has been making moves to create a new party to challenge LDP in Tokyo and there will have to be action taken to deal with this.  It is likely that LDP has concluded that a LDP-Koike truce/deal is no longer possible so eventually Koike will have to be expelled.

It is interesting that both Koike and Nikai were part of Ozawa's NFP back in the mid 1990s, and then both followed Ozawa into his new LP in the late 1990s.  When Ozawa took LP out of its alliance with LDP in 2000 Nikai  split with Ozawa and formed NCP with Koike following him.  Eventually NCP merged into LDP with both Koike and Nikai joining LDP (for Nikai it is re-joining.)  Both has been seen as enemies of Abe within LDP but Nikai made his peace with Abe recently and as part of that alliance was given the role of LDP General Secretary.

That's actually pretty awesome. :D Any chance there's a translation available online, out of curiosity?

Weekly Post magazine Tokyo prefecture election projection

TPFA        58
KP           21

LDP         26

JRP           1

DP            7
SNT          3

JCP         13

Which is a slight uptick for the Center-Left parties of DP and SNT.   If these were the results and TPFA(aka Koike Party)-KP alliance holds, then I think for the first time ever since the founding of the LDP a LDP led bloc would have less than 25% of any Japanese prefecture assembly.  Even though there are cases where the LDP led bloc (LDP plus various de facto LDP independents plus LDP allies like  KP) have not formed the majority in a prefecture assembly, they would form a strong opposition and have at least 30% of the assembly seats.  Now LDP is en route to being reduced to around 20% of the Tokyo assembly seats plus losing KP as an ally to Koike.

Latest NHK poll has Abe Cabinet approval dropping to 51/31 which is around where it was back in Dec 2016.  Abe has lost the bump he got from his meeting with Trump.

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Main reason is the continued questions over the construction of the Shinto Moritomo Gakuen School (AKA the Shinzo Abe School before it got renamed when the scandal broke)  in Osaka and how the the school was able to purchase the land for the school for 10% of the market price.

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Osaka might refuse approval of new Moritomo Gakuen school opening due to suspicious paperwork that was submitted by the school.

The kindergarten equivalent of this new elementary school was known for it revisionist school curriculum which involving children singing military songs from the WWII era.

The late Umberto Eco once said something about sometimes getting together with friends his own age to sing Mussolini-era patriotic songs together, because it was what they grew up with and they couldn't quite eradicate their nostalgia for it even though they knew full well that what the songs were sung about was evil.

Somehow, I don't have nearly as much sympathy for what's going on here.

This is mostly for financial reasons.  Education in Japan is heavily regulated to ensure consistency across the different prefectures.  As a result private schools need an angle to survive.  This school decided to tap into the latent revisionist population and tap into money by getting them to put their kids into their school for money.  This is why they also tried the "Shinzo Abe School" strategy  to try to generate publicity for the school. The real mistake for Abe here is allowing his wife to accept the position of "Honorary Principle" of this private school.

Number of candidates for Tokyo prefecture elections of 127 seats

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TPFA (aka Koike Party) will nominate at least 64 candidates while KP will nominate 23 candidates.  TPFA and KP will have a full blown alliance as both parties will recommend the candidates of the other party.
There will be post-election alliance between TPFA-KP and DP which will nominate 36 candidates of which 4 already left DP to try to run for TPFA.   TPFA's main target will be LDP which will nominate 54 candidates.  In this election Koike and TPFA seems to have a target of breaking LDP in Tokyo Prefecture assembly.

I know idealogy is a peculiar thing in Japan, but how should we characterise Koike's governing style? Any interesting flagship policies?

Very similar to Shinzo Abe: strong Japanese conservative nationalist/revisionist, strong supporter of women in the workplace (mainly to add to Japanese economic power just like Abe), and supporter of neoliberal economic reforms.

Main difference with Abe is that Abe mostly talks about neoliberal economic reforms but pretty much does nothing since he is still linked to the LDP clientelist machine.   Koike, it seems, is actually trying to tear down the Tokyo LDP political machine and with it a set of neoliberal economic policies.  Of course the Tokyo LDP which right now is led by Ishihara clan which are her deadly enemy makes it easy for her to take on that policy position. 

Despite being very close ideologically to Abe she has a poor relationship with him which eventually lead her to bolt from the LDP.  She seems to be personally a lot closer to her old mentor Ozawa (who used to have policy positions in the 1990s similar to hers but has drifted Leftward over the years) and former LDP PM Koizumi.  Many suspect the Koike rebellion is being backed in the shadows by Ozawa and Koizumi who both have their ax to grind with Abe.

Unclear sentence. Is she trying to "tear down" neoliberalism, or is she in favor of neoliberal reforms?

She's in favor of them.

I'm of the opinion that Japan, for cultural reasons, is one of only a couple G20 countries where economic liberalization would likely do some good for most people, so I dislike Koike a bit less than I probably "should", and certainly less than I dislike Abe.

Could you elaborate on this?

Japanese middle-class culture is heavily oriented around company and workplace loyalty, to the point where many people with what would in other countries be seen as very good jobs have an everyday life that's a grinding ordeal thanks to things like all-but-expected overtime work and endless weeknight drinking parties with one's colleagues. People working in more precarious or casualized sectors do have all the problems that come with precarity and casualization, but they also tend to have more freedom in how they spend their time and in their cultural pursuits (although Japan currently lacks the cultural infrastructure for most of them to use this freedom wisely).

Sorry.  What I meant is that Koike wants to wash out the LDP from Tokyo and usher in neoliberal policies.  Not sure if that is her true plan or just an excuse to rally the mainly economic center right Tokyo voter based to vote out the LDP and for her.

Lastest poll in Tokyo has Koike's approval rating dropping slightly from 67% to 65.2%

In terms of voting intentions for Tokyo Prefecture election TPFA(Koike Party) is surging ahead as LDP slumps

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TPFA     42.3 (+4.5)
LDP      13.4 (-1.9)
JCP         7.1 (+1.1)
KP          4.1 (-1.8    )
DP          4.0 (-1.3)

Lol

Yasunori Kagoike, the head of a school operator mired in controversy over its cut-price purchase of a plot of state-owned land in western Japan said Thursday he received donations from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for the elementary school being built on the site.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga says Prime Minister Shinzo Abe didn’t make a donation to the school foundation at the center of land-sale scandal, neither by himself nor through his wife, office, or a third person. Suga says Abe will check if his wife made donation in her personal capacity; says it won’t take long to confirm.

Even though the LDP has been trying to avoid this, they had to accept summing Yasunori Kagoike to the diet to question him.

All this stuff in the news will hurt Abe's approval rating but even if Abe or his wife donated to this elementary school I do not see why that is a big deal.  Unless there is some evidence that Abe or his wife were involved in the schooling buying this land at a reduced price Abe is safe.

Abe denied Friday that he and his wife ever made a donation to Yasunori Kagoike.  Kagoike claimed that Abe's wife made such a donation back in 2015 and will testify in the Diet 3/23 about the land deal.  The topic of Abe/wife donation will come up.  Abe better hope Kagoike does not produce proof of such a donation.  There is nothing wrong with Abe or his wife making such a donation but if such evidence was produced it would be an issue of the coverup/lies being way worse than the original scandal.

The reason this can hurt Abe is that Abe's wife always had a moderate image which attracted centrist voters that would otherwise be concerned with Abe's revisionist image.  This way Abe can rope in the nationalist vote while Abe's wife ropes in the Centrist vote.  Abe's wife being involved with this school which revisionist ties breaks that image that is why Abe is eager to disavow any ties, even legal ones, to   Yasunori Kagoike.
 

In Tokyo, with TPFA-KP seeming to have an insurmountable lead on the polls it seems LDP might join hands with JRP to try to salvage some seats.  This leads to some interesting dynamics in different cities if this takes place.  In Tokyo it will be TPFA-KP vs LDP-JRP.  While in Osaka it is KP with an alliance with LDP (although increasingly strained) but also an alliance with JRP even as LDP and JRP are hostile to each other.

RIP the democrats in Tokyo for the forseeable future

Yeah, even I had a favorable-ish opinion of Abe Akie before this.

Yes.  In fact after the DP gets hammered in Tokyo prefecture elections then the knives will be out for Renho and she will most likely have to step down.  The hope was that she can get DP support nationally above 10% in the polls but she has not delivered plus DP get hit in her home turf is fatal for her leadership.

Latest go2senkyo.com poll for Tokyo Prefecture elections

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Landslide victory for TPFA with a majority on its own and  LDP reduced to 22 seats as well as JRP and SNT both wiped out.  No party since the start of Tokyo Prefecture elections in 1947 has ever won an absolute majority in its own.  LDP usually hover around low to mid 50s.  2013 LDP of 59 seats is the highest it has ever received.

TPFA       66
KP           23
LDP         22
DP            5
JCP         11

Not sure if this poll takes into account a possible DP-JCP alliance.  There are still a lot of internal infighting in what is left of Tokyo DP on if DP-JCP alliance makes sense.  I think it is true a DP-JCP alliance will drive votes away from DP toward LDP or TPFA, the reality is those voters already are going to vote TPFA or LDP anyway so at this stage it has to be able survival of DP as a viable party in Tokyo.  Only a DP-JCP alliance could save a few seats for both parties.

A comparison to 2005 2009 2013 elections

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Green TPFA
Blue LDP
Pink KP
Red DP
Orange JCP
Light Green JRP
Yellow SNT (center left local Tokyo Party)
Brown - YP (defunct)
Grey - other/independents

It is funny how KP always wins 23 seats no matter what.  It gets 23 seats in a "normal" Tokyo prefecture election in 2005, it wins 23 in a DP victory in 2000, it wins 23 in a LDP-KP landslide and DP collapse in 2013, and now it will win 23 in a TPFA-KP landslide with a collapse of LDP as well as near extinction of DP.

In 2009 the 2 other/independents are split into 1 pro-DPJ independent and 1 minor Left party
In 2005 the 5 other/independents are split into 2 pro-LDP independent and 3 minor Left parties

Well, in Japan the dominate party always over polls (in this case TPFA) while DP and KP always under-polls.  Usually one has to multiply the DP support numbers by 2.5 to get their election day vote share.

I would say

TPFA     42.3 
LDP      13.4
JCP         7.1
KP          4.1 
DP          4.0

will roughly translate into something like on election day

TPFA     43 
LDP       18
JCP        12
KP         12 
DP         10

which would still be a disaster for DP

The new line from Abe's office on Yasunori Kagoike's claim that Abe's wife donated around $8000 to his kindergarten is that "most likely" when Yasunori Kagoike invited Abe's wife to give a speech at his kindergarten she was offered a honoraria for giving the speech which she turned down.  As a result Yasunori Kagoike recorded that amount she did not take a donation to the school.

The Mainichi Shimbun has obtained a copy of a post office receipt for a deposit of 1 million yen that scandal-hit Moritomo Gakuen claims to have been donated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's wife Akie Abe.

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The receipt copy for the deposit shows Moritomo Gakuen as the depositor handwritten over whiteout tape. When the receipt is held up to the light, the name "Shinzo Abe" can be made out underneath the whiteout. The seal of the post office that handled the payment is stamped over the whited-out portion.

 

Latest NNN poll show significant erosion of support for Abe and LDP due to the Yasunori Kagoike controversy.  Questions on details of the situation shows at the minimum the optics are not good.  Again, without a smoking gun, Abe will survive this weakened and not defeated.

Abe cabinet support 47.6(-7.3) (this is back to record low of Aug 2015 during the new Security Bill)
                  opposed 32.9(+6.9)
Around 40% of those that support Abe cabinet says it is because "there is no one else"

Party support

LDP   37.8 (-7.2)
DP     12.3 (+5.2)
KP       4.4 (+1.6)
JCP      4.4 (+0.6)
JRP      2.0 (+0.6)
SDP     1.4 (+0.4)
LP        0.4 (----)
PJK      0.1 (+0.1)

These levels of party support are roughly in line with what NNN found right around the 2016 Upper House elections.   Most of the ground Abe has gained due various high profile actions/meetings plus DP infighting has been lost.

On Yasunori Kagoike  land deal. The government explains that this land transaction is an appropriate deal with an estimated amount after estimating the expenses necessary for waste disposal buried in the basement of the land. Do not you agree with this explanation, do you agree?
Convincing 3.9%
Not convincing 83.8%

Prime Minister Abe 's wife, Mrs. Akie, has become an honorary principal of a private elementary school under construction on this land and recently quit. Do not you think that the Prime Minister's honorary position at this elementary school is appropriate?
I think so 9.3%
I do not think so 76.9%

Yomiuri poll

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval   56(-10)/33(+9)

Different polls have different biases.  Net affect is Abe cabinet approval rating falling to mid 2016 if not mid 2015 levels.

Is there any way these numbers might give Renhō a second lease on life or is she definitely going to be turfed out after the Tokyo elections regardless?

She's a goner.

That's what I thought. Shame, she's #extra and has an atypical background and I like her a lot better than the interchangeable Kan/Noda/Kaieda/Okada toom tabards.

I liked Kan tbh

Abe's troubles will not result in DP making any gains in Tokyo where it counts.  TPFA  is much more likely to gain in Tokyo instead.  Outside of Tokyo I suspect JRP might gain more from this than DP.  Renho's real problem is that she has to run a policy driven agenda since DP, but especially her, has no patronage resources to keep the party together.  As a result she is pushing a nuclear free Japan as her main agenda.  This is running into opposition from the pro-DP Rengo industrial unions whose members often are pro-nuclear power for the jobs it creates which in turn makes her weaker when she encounter electoral reverses. 

I think DP should look into bring back Ozawa and LP back into DP. See this chart which I posted before on a history of PR votes share in Japanese national elections.


In the years Ozawa was part of DPJ/DP 2002-2011, the Center-Left vote share never fell below 35%.  In the years where Ozawa is not party of DPJ/DP, pre-2002 and post-2011, the Center-Left vote share was never above 35%.

There is one thing that could get in the way of a TPFA sweep of the Tokyo Prefecture elections in July.  That is the issue of candidate selection.  Out of the 59 LDP incumbents, a few are retiring and some have defected to TPFA but all things equal a majority are staying loyal to LDP and will run as LDP candidates.  Many of them have been the butt of Koike's verbal attacks in public and most are gambling that Koike might fizzle out by July.  Most of them have deep roots in their district.   Obviously if TPFA has 40% support going into the election the LDP will be crushed for sure.  But if the LDP can close the gap with TPFA by July as Tokyo tires of Koike then these deep roots can play a factor in saving LDP seats.  Unless TPFA  can recruit some quality candidates by July the landslide for TPFA that is predicted might not take place.

RCP like graph of Abe cabinet approval.  Approval rating which surged on Abe's meeting with Trump have climbed down on the most recent scandal

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The big showdown will be 3/23 when Kagoike will testify under oath in the Diet and promises to "reveal all" on how he got the land for such a low value and his relationship with the Abe couple.

Yes, this sounds good until you remember Ozawa is still Ozawa.

I agree. The fact that Ozawa on policy (purely qua policy) is one of the best options in Japan right now shouldn't distract anybody from what a scheming SOB he is.

Elsewhere I once described him as a 'frankly Satanic figure' and I stand by this.

Pictures on current relationships in the Tokyo situation. 

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The players are Koike, Tokyo KP, Tokyo LDP, and national LDP.

It points out that Tokyo LDP are now at war with Koike and Tokyo KP.  The national LDP is trying to "maintain a relationship" with Tokyo KP given need to maintain the national alliance between LDP and KP.  Koike is allied with Tokyo KP iterating toward a confrontation with the national LDP.  The breaking point between Koike and the national LDP is when the LDP finally decides to expel Koike from LDP.

Kagoike, in testimony to an upper house budget committee under oath – which means he could face perjury charges if he is later found to have lied – said that he had received money from Abe’s wife in 2015 when the two of them were alone in a room at the school.

“She said ‘please, this is from Shinzo Abe,’ and gave me an envelope with one million yen in it,” Kagoike said. “Abe’s wife apparently says she doesn’t remember this at all, but since this was a matter of honor to us, I remember it quite vividly.”

Kagoike says he was “surprised by the large discount” his foundation received to purchase public land to build school.  When asked whether there was political involvement in land deal, Kagoike says he thinks there probably was.

What do you think the fallout could be from this?

Kagoike also alleged that in October 2015 he sought Akie Abe’s influence in extending a 10-year lease for a plot of land that he later purchased to build the elementary school, Mizuho no Kuni.  He said he left a message on her phone asking for help. Her secretary Saeko Tani, who eventually replied via fax, said that despite efforts to negotiate with the Finance Ministry, they couldn’t get the deal he had hoped for.

Kagoike also said that in a recent email exchange with his wife, Junko, Akie Abe urged her to keep quiet about her “involvement.”

“It almost sounded like the first lady was trying to seal our lips,” Kagoike said.

Well Abe is denying everything that Kagoike is saying.  The Japanese equities market is pretty much flat throughout the testimony meaning the markets seems to feel that Abe will ride this out. 

Is there any good English language books or texts about Japanese politics in the 90's? The weak governments leading to the dramatic loss, Hosokawa-Hata-Murayama period and the subsequent LDP-Socialist alliance seems really fascinating.

Is it right to say that Hosokawa was too honourable to fall on his sword when he did?

Sorry, none I know of.  Most of my knowledge of Japanese politics in the 1980s and 1990s are via the Chinese language media on Taiwan Province which does a pretty good job of covering Japan