Talk Elections

?

Unlike my optimism for the Senate race (and a desire not to have to turn voters back out twice and keep campaigning for two more months), I think this will go to a run-off. If Carter edges out a plurality on Election Night, I think his chances of winning a run-off are much better than Nunn's. The Libertarian vote will likely be larger than normal in this particular election and I could actually see (unlike in other cases where people hope for it but it's not a reality) a lot of Hunt supporters skipping this race because they couldn't stomach Deal in the first place. The only reason Carter is as competitive as he is in the first place is because there's a sizable chunk of Republicans who are saying no to Deal and yes to Carter.

Deal will edge in the primary but Carter will rally in the runoff

Deal barely leads but it goes to a runoff; Nunn wins outright

Carter and Nunn will prevail. Atlanta just like Miami and St Louis and Richard are urbanizing, along with black vote, these rural states.

???

Carter in the primary, Deal in the runoff

Y'all are going to be disappointed when Deal and Perdue when their runoffs.

Primary:
49% Nathan Deal
47% Jason Carter
4% Andrew Hunt

Run-Off:
54% Nathan Deal
46% Jason Carter

Primary:
49.7% Deal
46.4% Carter

Run-off:
55.7% Deal
44.3 % Carter

It goes to a runoff.  Carter will need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day to have a better than even chance to win.

Does anyone think Nunn has a better chance to win a runoff if the GOP wins the Senate on election day? Regardless, winning the election day vote on Nov 4 is a tremendous accomplishment and would signal Hillary has a real shot at Georgia with an even more diverse electorate.

Though it's probable that the GOP will win the Senate, I don't think it will happen on Election Day.  With Georgia and Louisiana as likely runoffs, they will have to pick up the six seats elsewhere and will more or less have to run the table and avoid losing Kansas to get to 51 in November.

I would agree that Nunn (and possibly Landrieu) does have a better chance to win a runoff if the GOP wins Senate control in November, Otherwise, the GOP will be supercharged and natural dropoff in runoff elections will favor them. 

This creates a dilemma--do the Dems lose the Senate on Election Day for a better chance of Nunn and Landrieu to win their runoff elections? 

Nunn narrowly wins outright on the "primary" night.

Carter edges Deal in the first round primary night, but goes to run off where Deal is likely to win narrowly.

Id really like to see both win and hopefully that is the result.

Hmm... If the present trend keeps up, Carter will narrowly lead Deal on election night and it'll go to a runoff.  It's obvious who I want to win, but I do know the difficulties facing Carter in a runoff.  The thing to watch is how close he gets to 50% on election night, and the performance of the Libertarian.

Neither here nor in the senatorial prediction: Almost nobody saw the success of the Republican candidates coming... :'(

I guess black turnout was vastly overestimated or something