Talk Elections

LePage (R): 44.4%
Michaud (D): 44.7%
Cutler (I): 9.2%
Undecided: 1.6%

MoE: +/- 3.25%

Link (http://mprc.me/research/1014election.pdf)

Michaud +1 as in he's +1 since their last survey??

[Edit]: Well, I guess he's technically +1 if you round...

Looks like UNH is set to get embarrassed...again.

+1.3 just seems silly ;)

Wonderful news!

you mean .3?  that would be a "tie."

This is going to be so close.

D firm with Decimals

Even with people casting protest votes and some low-info voters unaware Cutler has dropped out, there's no way he's approaching 10% tomorrow. Most of those voters will go for Michaud.

Oh lol whoops. Oh well, my bad. Margin of error!

New Poll: Maine Governor by Maine People's Research Center on 2014-11-02 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2320141102191)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, I: 9%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://mprc.me/research/1014election.pdf)

This will be the last race I move, but I still think LePage has a good chance of pulling an upset and winning.

By winning a majority of the inevitable dropoff of Cutler voters? How does that happen?

Or former Cutler voters just not showing up. Or the general upward direction that LePage has felt over the course of the campaign catching up at the polls.

What upward direction? LePage has been stuck at 40% the entire campaign.

Cutler hasn't dropped out.  It is expected that his support has been cut in half, but there's no reason to expect it will evaporate completely.

Dominating!!!!

I think people underestimate how many people are going to happily trot to the polls and vote for Cutler.

Let's not debate semantics between a "suspended" campaign and "dropping out".

I don't see how Cutler voters not showing up to the polls helps LePage one iota. A liberal independent suspending his campaign two weeks before election day is bound to help the Democrat in what was all ready a neck and neck race with an arch-conservative.

It's not good news for LePage that Cutler has moved out. What I'm saying is, the general movement of this race, it may not matter, especially if Cutler voters feel so meh about Michaud that they just decide not to vote. If a large portion of Cutler voters just don't show up, then LePage has a shot. If former Cutler voters come in in large numbers to vote for Michaud, then chances are LePage loses by 2-3 points (last PPP poll had LePage within 5 of Michaud in a head to head, chances are with the few Cutler voters still left, that reduces a good amount).

A suspended campaign doesn't continue to buy TV ads.  That's not just semantics.

Thinking Lepage may actually pull this off again!

気持ち悪い。

素晴らしい!

Literally no sense though of who will win this one, another exciting one.

It's both. It's 素晴らしい that it's this close because you're right, it is exciting; it's 気持ち悪い that it's this close because Paul fucking LePage, although I don't expect you to agree on that.

Nah LePage is a vile human being, I'm just f'ing around ;)

Ребята, некоторые из нас не говорят по японский.

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