Talk Elections

Yair Lapid rejected Bibi's demands; the election date to be announced in a couple days.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.629512?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.629512?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Reasons include the VAT, defense budget, and the nation-state bill

Is there any chance of Bibi actually losing? What's the most viable alternative?

Lapid and Livni are both damaged goods. Hnv1 thinks a comeback by labor is in the cards, but I'm skeptical. The polls currently only show Bennett able to actually beat Bibi in the tallies; but he wouldn't be able to set up a coalition. Most likely we'll see another Bibi led government IMO.

Bibi is sure to win. He wouldn't be calling an election otherwise.

The only real question is whether Bibi's preferred coalition (Likud, Jewish Home, Shas, UTJ) will win a strong majority, if he will be at the mercy of Kahlon and Liberman, or if he will have to assemble an even more unwieldy government.

Labour and Yesh Atid will compete to be the strongest force on, for lack of a better term, the left but neither has a shot at winning.

I don't think Yesh Atid is a spent force although it deserves to be.

An interesting question: will partisan infighting within Shas cause UTJ to become the larger of the two Haredi parties for the first time since... ever?

Have they announced a date yet?

Not yet, they're supposed to do it soon though.

Opened a thread before the Knesset voted to dissolve?! you doomes us with another right victory.

It's pretty much official now... Livni and Lapid were dismissed as ministers today, and Bibi openly announced new elections. The vote to dissolve will be a formality.

Is there any chance off an right-wing non ortodox guvernemnt i.e. Likud with Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu and the New Kachlon Party or even Yesh Atid?!

Yes, depends on the results. A weak Likud like last time arond will tie Bibi's hands to a coalition he again doesn't want. a strong Likud plus strong JH result will get us the traditional right wing-orthodox government. Liberman as always is a wildcard

Former minister (and Labour leader) Peretz said he wants Labour, YA, Livni, Kadima and maybe even Meretz to unite around Herzog (who got 19% in PM-fit compared to Bibi's 31%). Unlikely...but considering this election will be more or less a referendum on Bibi himself we might see very interesting combination with their sole aim to kick him out.

Could someone provide a brief rundown of the major parties/their ideologies/demographics?

I don't really get Israeli politics.

This is by no means exhaustive, and I ask the native Israelis to correct anything I may have gotten wrong.

The parties:
Likud: traditional right wing party, both on economic and diplomatic issues. Tends to be expedient on religious issues, but Bibi is more comfortable relying on the Ultra-orthdox

Yesh Atid: The big party that came out of the last election, headed by former news anchor Yair Lapid: it's basically moderate hero on everything, except they're pitted against the Ultra-Orthodox. They're like the Israeli version of the Lib Dems.

Labor: The old left party, has been steadily losing support since Rabin; they tend to be economically center-left and diplomatically centrist, though current leader Herzog is an exception to that rule, he tends to be more third way in terms of economics.

Yisrael Beitenu: Headed by Avigdor Lieberman, this was traditionally a party of the Russian immigrants, but Lieberman has been trying to appeal to right-wingers dissatisfied with Bibi. Economically right wing yet at the same time secularist. Superficially similar to Bennett and Jewish Home, but the racism tends to come almost exclusively from nationalism, rather than the mixture of nationalism and religious messianism characterizing Jewish Home.

Jewish Home: The party of the settlers and the Religious Zionists. Openly annexationist. Probably the only party in the coalition that will come out a winner in the polls.

Shas: The Haredi/Ultra-Orthodox party for the Sephardim and Mizrachim. Not right-wing economically but has drifted to the right on diplomacy/peace/the Arab population, with the rise of Eli Yishai. Used to be very powerful but has been on the decline since Ovadia Yosef died, and many non Haredi sephardim that typically vote for Shas have been peeling away to join other parties on the center and right.

United Torah Judaism: The Ashkenazi Haredi party, formed by the union of Lithuanian Degel haTorah and Hasidic Agudat Yisrael. From what I know tends to be more left-wing on most issues compared to Shas, except for religious issues where it is more right wing.

Meretz: The traditional Zionist left, staunchly pro-peace, economically left wing, secular, and anti-Bibi. Tends to be white, Ashkenazi and well-off.

Hatnuah: Livni's latest vehicle, supposed to be the centrist peace party. Livni may or may not decide to go into retirement this year, as her party may well get slaughtered.

Moshe Kachlon's party: Kachlon was a former Sephardi Likud member and at one time Minister of Communications, during which time he got everyone's love for lowering the cell phone bill. Now he wants to run as an economically "left-wing" candidate (even though he's not actually left-wing on anything). Think of him as a poor man's Lapid; I'm fairly sure he's going to siphon a lot of Shas's nonharedi voters (and even some Haredi ones).

Hadash: The Israeli commies; most of their support comes from well-educated and middle-class Arabs in Jewish and larger Arab towns. (Umm al Fahm, Haifa, etc.)

UAL-Taal: This is a joint list of the Islamist UAL and Ahmed Tibi's secular Taal party. This party gets the overwhelming support of the Bedouin, as well as Arabs in the smaller towns).

Balad: The Arab-Nationalist party. Recently it has been the weakest of the three parties, as well as the most controversial one, as a result of MK Haneen Zoabi. There is a high possibility that they merge with UAL-Taal as a result of the raising of the electoral bar.

In my opinion the only way to describe the Israeli political spectrum is to use three dimensions: diplomacy/peace, economics, and religious issues. And even then the lines frequently blur, for example: just recently Livni and the Shas reached a deal to appoint a mix of reformist and traditional Haredi Rabbis in order to sink Religious Zionist Bennett's preferences. Lieberman is shrewd enough to have cultivated relationships with many center parties. And Meretz and UTJ collaborated on an alternative budget.

United Arab List also includes the Arab Democratic Party of Taleb el-Sana, which actually broke away from Labor, it's specifically a Bedouin party and that's part of why they get so many Bedouin votes. Although the ADP, originally the main party in UAL, has lost a lot of clout in recent years, obviously from el-Sana getting bumped down on the party list and losing his seat in the Knesset.

and Kahlon's party is probably a ploy to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

Considering that el-Sana was replaced with another Bedouin (Taleb abu-Arar), do you think this will change who the Bedouin vote for?

Also,  how do people think the Arab parties will regroup? I've heard the possibility that Balad and UAL will unite, and Taal will break off to join Hadash and thus even it out.

In other news, the date of dissolution is tomorrow. Elections are supposed to be in mid to late March. Jewish Home has scheduled their primaries for January 5th, and I've heard there's some friction between Bennett and the Tekuma faction of the party (possible breakup?)

Also, who is most likely to vote for a Kachlon party? If it's Likudniks, that hurts Bibi, and if it's disaffected Shas voters it doesn't help much either, as Shas will most likely be in Bibi's coalition next time around. Best case scenario for him would be disaffected Lapid voters move to Kachlon in large numbers, but will Kachlon necessarily appeal to middle-class, secular Lapid-types? Also, is there any truth that Ariel Attias and Adina Bar-Shalom may link up with him?

Kachlon isn't a plot and it would be a really stupid plan if he were, since right wing parties already get a big majority of working class voters. Social Justice had nothing to do with Bibi, it was just a personal creation of Arkadi Gaydmak with no ideology, other than being a tool of his, but was abandoned when Gaydmak failed badly in the Jerusalem local election.

There was some talk of ADP running on their own last time but they ended up rejoining less than 48 hours before the registration deadline. I don't think there's any chance this time though because of the raising of the threshold.

As for Balad, I think they will just boycott the election. They're so radical at this point, even if they could continue to evade a ban, it just doesn't make sense for them to participate in elections run by a state they so openly despise. If they do team up with UAL, I suspect it will be an unofficial endorsement or maybe no endorsement and radical Arab voters going to UAL just because it's the next logical choice for them.

Hadn't heard that about Ta'al but it makes sense. Ahmad Tibi, the founder of Ta'al, got his start as Yasser Arafat's adviser on Israeli Arab affairs. Hadah-Ta'al would basically be a pro-Palestinian Authority/State of Palestine bloc and UAL(-Balad) would be a pro-Hamas bloc.

Basically every English language article about Social Justice openly acknowledged it was a trick to get left-wing voters to vote for Netanyahu, although in slightly nice words.

As for Kahlon, there's clearly some personal interest there, he wants to increase his standing. I think he's basically still pro-Likud and not totally hostile to Netanyahu though, his endorsement of Netanyahu before the last election proved that, he could have just sat that election out totally.

So Bibi is Israel's Andrew Cuomo

Here's the article about the possible merger: http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.629637 (http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.629637)

I wouldn't describe UAL/Balad as "pro-Hamas". Even Balad, who has the more extreme rhetoric, is closer to someone like Marwan Barghouti than Hamas.  And the UAL knows they're not getting a caliphate.

I think calling Balad pro-Hamas is perfectly fair. They're certainly pro-Hezbollah and pro-Assad so I don't know why you consider that such a jump. Regardless, they're at the very least pro-suicide bombing (as Barhgouti is). Also, UAL have spoken of a caliphate before. Whether they're disconnected from reality enough to think it's realistic is another question, although even if they weren't, it wouldn't make me feel much better.

Sweet Yahew. I hate the Haaretz paywall.

What haaretz paywall?
http://uncommonprogrammer.blogspot.com/2013/05/haaretz-cracked-goodbye-paywall-its-now.html (http://uncommonprogrammer.blogspot.com/2013/05/haaretz-cracked-goodbye-paywall-its-now.html)

Considering that Hamas opposes Assad, I'd say Balad supporting Assad makes them less Hamas-friendly.

Also, UAL supports a two-state solution, which is very un-Hamaslike.

This was an interesting article not that long ago interviewing the Balad MKs:

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/11/balad-haneen-zoabi-basel-ghattas-jamal-zahalka-balad.html (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/11/balad-haneen-zoabi-basel-ghattas-jamal-zahalka-balad.html)

Here are some new numbers out:
Channel 2/Midgam
22 Likud
17 Bayit Yehudi
13 Labor
11 Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
10 Yisrael Beitenu
10 New Kachlon Party
9 Yesh Atid
9 Shas
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7 Meretz
4 Hatnua

Teleseker/Walla:
23 Likud
17 Bayit Yehudi
12 Labor
12 Yisrael Beitenu
11 Yesh Atid
10 New Kachlon Party
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7 Shas
5 Meretz
5 Hatnuah
5 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Hadash

Can anyone explain the collapse in support for Meretz for me please?

I think he's talking about a small 'social justice' party that ran in 2013, kinda like how Mozes tried running a small russian party to steal votes from Bibi and Liberman.

Kachlon+ the Israeli voter is not quite sure what's the shape of things to come. I think is we grow closer Meretz will hit 8-9 in polling but the 12 we saw earlier in polling will not be duplicated.

Some russian political reporter for Makor Rishon is trying to run in the JH. I would pay attention because there's a chunk of russian who grew closer to reigion and like Bennet and I think most of his surge will come from Liberman and Shas voters

Arab radio broadcaster zoher bahalul annunced he trying to secure a spot at Meretz (will join former Haaretz columnist Avirama Golan and former Major General Eyal Ben Reuven). Though by Inside information I gathered there might be a problem because Meretz are supposed to elect a new party convention at the end of this month (same body that selects the chairman and party list) and there might be a rpoblem with that now.

danny, you had that maps thread back in the days...will you update it with the 2013 data?

I wonder how the Arabs in Israel votes.  I think Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  But it seems Hadash/UAL/Balad gets around 10% of the vote.  Are Arabs 20% of the registered voters ?  I assume it is for sure not since some of them would refuse to participate in the process.  Still, I wonder what happen to the other 10% of 20%.  Do some of them vote for the mainstream parties ? (Labor, Likud, Yesh Atid...)

Wouldn't events this summer have seriously affected Meretz's electoral chances, or it at least its reputation, hence the low polling? I mean the Israeli media didn't dare question Bibi's version of events. These two teenagers that are apparently what kicked things back off were missing for two weeks and it was scarcely reported in the media then when they were found dead a massive campaign against Hamas-collaborators and Arab sympathisers started. Furthermore, JT linked the israeli arab protests with Meretz.

In Israel we don't have the GOP every citizen is a registered voter. There's around 50% voting in the Arab population. There used to be a large chunk of Labour and Meretz voters not so much any more. If I recall seeing a poll after 2013 around 90% of the Arab population vote for one of the three Arabic parties with the rest voting for Labour, Meretz, Likud, Shas etc (by that order)

Not so much. The typical Meretz voter agreed with the party stance that there needs to be peace on the southern border but the war is pointless. they were circling 9 seats in polls well after it and with a backlash to the racist atmsphere you will see some centre voters tilt left too. As most reporters say Meretz and JH are the only parties seems set to profit in the election

If I have time I'd like to, but I can't promise.

Elections will be on the 17th of March.

Given margin of error issues there's something like a five-way tie for second place at present. Hilarious.

As for Meretz, don't forget that a few years ago they would have been delighted to be polling around about where they are now...

But not any time other than between 2 elections ago and the last one. The 2009 result is not a usual result, it happened because of Meretz voters voting for Kadima to try to get them past Likud.

Al, based on the polls Bennett has held a consistent second place. third place is where all hell breaks loose.

Speaking of which, I've read rumors that there is bad blood between Bennett and Housing Minister Ariel. Is there any possibility of a breakup of Jewish Home?

Also, now that Livni is dead weight, will she try and join Labor, or will she call it quits? From what I understand Lapid doesn't want her while Herzog is interested.

Are there any retirement prospects on the horizon? If Bennett is craving the defense ministry as much as they say he is, does that mean Yaalon is ready to call it quits?

A break between the Jewish Home and the former National Union is always a possibility.

Weird though because Bennett is a very National Union-y Jewish Home member (hawk who happens to be religious rather than a theocrat who happens to be a hawk).

What is Ariel's specific beef?

I suppose rather than go it totally alone Ariel might join the Kachist Strength to Israel.

From what I understand, it's underlying resentment + Bennett isn't being sufficiently loony:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-mks-threaten-split-to-right-wing-camp/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-mks-threaten-split-to-right-wing-camp/)

Also I've always thought National Union was more theocrat-y than anything else.

Edit: Also, is there any indication who Kachlon will primarily target?

The first two leaders of the National Union were Benny Begin and Avigdor Lieberman. So not exactly theocrats.

The only religious party in the National Union for a long time was Tekuma, which broke away from the NRP (old name of The Jewish Home) because it wasn't hawkish enough. They were usually the smallest party though.

I do believe Tekuma gained control of the entire party aparatus towards the end but that was basically after they had already agreed to merge back into The Jewish Home.

Then again, Ariel is from Tekuma.

I'm reading about this now, it's really almost comical. The Jewish Home/historical NRP is going to basically become the old National Union and all the people were in formerly in the National Union are going to break away and form a new version of the NRP.

Dang it, I confused the NRP and the NU; they were a bit before my time.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/popular-ex-likud-minister-launches-new-party/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/popular-ex-likud-minister-launches-new-party/)
Times of Israel profile on Kahlon. Rumors that he'll run with Yoav Galant and possibly Diskin(?). I must say, if Diskin does this, he really is politically inept. It also doesn't say much about Kachlon- if he's running an economic party, why the hell is he stuffing it with defense guys?

Trajtenberg is also mentioned, which makes no sense. No mention of Saar though.

More polls:
Maagar Mochot:
26 Likud
16 Bayit Yehudi
13 Labor
12 Yisrael Beitenu
8 Yesh Atid
8 Shas
8 UTJ
8 Kachlon
7 Meretz
4 Ra’am-Ta’al
4 Hadash
3 Movement
3 Balad

Do you plan on going out to vote?
31% For sure, 24% Most likely, 35% average or low chance

From a scale of 1-10 what is your faith in the Israeli political system?
4.7 average

And from Sarid (only partial):
Likud: 17
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 17
Yesh Atid: 11

Who is at fault for the collapse of the coalition?
53% Netanyahu, 28% Lapid, 13% Labor & Opposition, 2% Livni, 2% Bennett, 1% Liberman

Who will be the next Prime Minister?
48% Netanyahu, 10% Herzog, 6% Bennett, 5% Liberman, 3% Lapid, 2% Kachlon, 2% Livni, 21% Don’t know

Also, looks like Shas might be on the verge of breaking up. If Yishai does leave, who stays with Deri? I'm thinking Vaknin; anyone else?
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-is-considering-options-regarding-his-political-future-383597 (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-is-considering-options-regarding-his-political-future-383597)

The talk right now is for the National Union to join with Eli Yishai who will break away from Deri's Shas. Might happen, might not.

Why won't Yeshai join Likud? That seems like the obvious thing to do.

Because Likud don't want him and he'd lose more votes than he'd gain maybe?

Likud is nowhere near religious enough for Yishai to fit in well, so Yishai shouldn't want to join them.
But for Likud it would be ridiculously bad, he would cost them far more votes than he would bring in, this is basically the kind move the Likud should make if they wanted to prop up Lapid or Lieberman.

Bennet is pretty much holding Ariel and the Tkuma memebers by the balls. They have no chance of running alone and he doesn't really need them but the old religious settlers establishment want them in with the JH. Many major rabbies like Avinari and Tau pretty much named him a secular.

Eli Ishay is rather dumb, true right now with Deri'i at the top they look set to get between 7-8 but if they split their strength will be even lower.

2 interesting polls from Globes:

Likud - 23
JH- 16
Labour - 15
YA - 10
Liberman - 10
Kachlon - 10
Shas - 9
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Hadash - 5
Balad - 3
Ra'm- 3
Livni -2

What happens if Livni joins Labour?
Labour+Livni - 24
Likud -22
JH - 16
Liberman - 10
Shas - 9
Kachlon - 9
YA - 7
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 5
Hadash - 5
Balad - 3
Ra'm- 3

first poll In ages in which Likud are second

Israeli push polling is ridiculous.

Kachlon says he is willing to trade land for peace, faults Netanyahu for being unwilling to do so:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/rising-star-kahlon-says-he-would-give-land-for-peace/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/rising-star-kahlon-says-he-would-give-land-for-peace/)

Mofaz to join with Labor, will most likely receive a spot in the top 5.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/mofaz-to-join-labor-party-reports-say/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/mofaz-to-join-labor-party-reports-say/)

Report is that Livni is more likely to join labor also. If so, she gets the number 2 spot, and Mitzna and Peretz will be in the top 10.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/labor-hatnua-parties-consider-alliance/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/labor-hatnua-parties-consider-alliance/)

Here's a piece on Zouheir Bahlul, the sportscaster hnv1 mentioned may join Meretz:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arab-sportscaster-to-get-into-game-from-inside-knesset/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arab-sportscaster-to-get-into-game-from-inside-knesset/)

What the hell, just for fun

I guess there are two options for a Labor government:

The most obvious one is Labor (Labor-Livni-Kadima) + Yesh Atid + Kahlon + Shas + UTJ

The one no one has dared mention yet: Labor (Labor-Livni-Kadima) + Yesh Atid + Kahlon + YB

The question is whether or not Liberman would consider joining the left. It's unlikely but he might be able to do it if he gets civil marriage as a result.

Another problem is that a left-government with Liberman would need to have a majority on its own, they couldn't depend on Hadash  like a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox could.

Irrelevant at this late point, but if Labor, Hatnuah, and Kadima merged and kept all their members, the resulting party would be the largest faction in the Knesset.

Livni came out and made a weird statement that Hatnuah and Labor will merge but also said she wants to head the list.

Her delusions of grandeur are bordering on mental illness.

He joined Ehud Olmert's government in 2006, but pulled out after 2 years in 2008.

Letting Lieberman in would mean leaving Meretz out. If Meretz gets 8 or higher seats, and Lieberman gets 11 or lower, that becomes impractical.  In addition, it would make it harder to let the Haredim in. Shas says its top two goals for the next government will be hiking the minimum wage and lowering the VAT on goods. That won't sit in well with Lieberman.

If Yishai makes his own party and proceeds to crash and burn, then that gives Deri a much stronger reason to stick with the left.

So I think the most likely left coalition is Labor/Livni-Lapid-Kachlon-Meretz-Haredim

The new labor bloc (not sure if they'll keep calling it labor) will have Livni as number 2, Mofaz in the top 5, and Peretz and Mitzna in the top 10. And yes, Tzipi is delusional.

Also, it seems that Diskin has been hanging around at labor functions recently; so him getting on the list is also a possibility. Also, Saar is supposed to be considering a primary challenge to Bibi right now, and Bibi wants to move up the primary date to quash it.

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Post-poll-may-entice-Saar-to-run-383847 (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Post-poll-may-entice-Saar-to-run-383847)

Like I said, I envision Liberman as a replacement for the Haredim, so getting them together wouldn't be necessary.

It might make cooperation with Meretz harder but would it really be that much harder than having Yesh Atid and Haredim together, which is an absolute necessity if you're going to have a Liberman-less left coalition?

I think Meretz would probably come around, they wouldn't be happy about it but they would come around.

Also, if Livni, Mofaz, Peretz, and Mitzna all get spots in the top 10, plus Herzog's automatic top spot as party leader, that means only half of the top 10 will be elected by Labor primary voters. I don't think that's going to a negative effect or anything, I just think it's funny.

The ideological gap between Lapid and the Haredim imo is smaller than between Meretz and Lieberman. If I remember correctly Lapid said he's ready to sit with the Haredim to get rid of Netanyahu and could switch his support for the house VAT to the goods VAT to appease them. Also, Meretz got a lot of backlash in 2006 for even considering to sit with Lieberman, even though they didn't actually go through with it. Also, there is the possibility that Yesh Atid goes the way of Kadima, in which case any potential conflict is rendered moot.

Re: your latter point, yeah I noticed that. Is there a possibility they change their name to reflect some kind of unity, like the Alignment coalition 40 years ago?

I have no real idea but my gut feeling says no. The name "Labor" is what makes them a major party. Without that, they're just another fly by night centrist party.

Too bad Sharon couldn't have hung on for a few more months. It would have been amusing to see him become a Labor party member against his will.  Would show how far to the right Israeli politics has moved.

This guy almost sounds too right-wing for Meretz, which kind of makes sense because I can't imagine a background in sports presenting making someone a latte liberal. Still, I can't think of a party that would fit him better.

Possibly the name Labor won't be used (it wasn't in 1999 when Labor ran a joint list with Gesher and Meimad; that was called "One Israel", but it was Labor in all but name), but it would still be Labor and voters would understand this. If they want to not say Labor but have voters understand that it is Labor, the historical names that have been used are Yisrael Ahat ("One Israel") and HaMa'arakh ("Alignment", which was the name Labor went by for 22 years, 1969-1991).

Or they could just say Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima; there's precedent for stringing three party names together instead of coming up with a new name. It's four that would set a record.


Huh? If Sharon had hung on for a few more months, Kadima would have won a bigger victory in 2006. Kadima was a major party for 7 years purely off of Sharon's legacy; the longer he lives, the more established Kadima would be as a major party. Eventually, Labor may have joined Sharon's Kadima rather than the reverse.

I think he's referring to comatose Arik, rather than noncomatose Arik.

Yeah, exactly.

if Livni joins they will just name Tanuat Havoda (Labur movement which is the official name anyway).

Starting to look similar to 99 election with the anti-Bibi sentiment. good

Where have you seen that?

http://www.timesofisrael.com/livni-confirms-hatnua-labor-merger-ahead-of-elections/

Yisrael Hasson, the non-Mofaz member of Kadima, is resigning the Knesset to become head of the state Archeological Authority. He will be replaced by the number 4 on the Kadima list, Ronit Tirosh (who I think is pretty). Number 3 on the Kadima list, Yohanan Plesner, didn't want the seat because he's head of something called the Israeli Democracy Institute and because being an MK for like 3 months is stupid.

Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

There is no longer such a thing as Kadima separate from Mofaz,  if he joins then that is the same as the party joining labour, regardless of whether other members come with him.

But the point of the question was, would other members (like Tirosh) also receive guaranteed positions on the Labor list? Even if the second Kadima member gets a spot in the teens, that's still a pretty realistic shot at getting back in the Knesset. Hasson resigning seems to point to no (though, since Hasson was originally a floor-crosser from Yisrael Beiteinu, maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with Labor).

I think it's a good question. I don't know why they wouldn't go through with a formal merger unless of course Kadima has a lot of debt, which is entirely possible.

As for a second seat, Herzog already told Mofaz he couldn't have it and Mofaz conceded. As for competing in the primaries like a normal Labor member, I don't think Tirosh would have much of a chance. As I pointed out, with 4 people getting appointed in the top 10, there's a limited number of realistic spots for incumbent Labor MKs, competition will be stiff.

Yohanan Plesner is much better known, he headed the commission on drafting the ultra-Orthodox. He would have had a slightly better chance but even he opted out.

I see -- under that circumstance, Hasson resigning for greener pastures makes sense.

Gotta be disappointing for him what constitutes greener pastures though. Hasson was the number 2 candidate on the Yisrael Beytenu list in 2006. He was set to be a big deal but never really took off.

So effectively a return to one of Labor's traditional electoral tactics?

Kadima are in massive debts...I'm not sure of what legal trick they'll do here to get the campaign funding money of Kadima without taking on the debts

Besides Bayit Yehudi, when will the rest of the parties be submitting their lists/picking their chairs?

Lapid-Hatnua will indeed get a new name.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Labor-led-bloc-with-Livni-Peretz-to-get-new-name-384068 (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Labor-led-bloc-with-Livni-Peretz-to-get-new-name-384068)
And it seems Labor backbenchers are none too happy about the deal; some want to break off from Herzog. completely.

LOLabor

EDIT: And Deri claims Shas is united once again, but Yishai remains mum.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-staying-in-Shas-Deri-says-384070 (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-staying-in-Shas-Deri-says-384070)

I wonder who's threatening to break away.

Limor Livnat won't be seeking another term.


Considering the well-publicized need of the Israeli left to stay unified, and that these are apparently five unknown backbenchers, could they realistically fail to hit the 3.25% barrier if they run alone? I feel like that number will keep them within Herzog's list.

Possibly the hardcore of Yechimovic camp...but it's remains are only Rosenthal, Mizrachi. Looks like a bit BS to me.

Agreed.

I remember last election when the Arabs and the kibbutz movement threatened to break away because they didn't like Shelly's leadership. Didn't happen.

channel 10:
Labour+Livni 22
Likud 20
JH 15
Kachlon 13
Liberman 11
Lapid 10
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6
Hadash 5
Ra'am Ta'al 4

PM fit:
Bibi 23%
Herzog 22%
Bennet 13%
Sahar 12%

Official - Herzog and Livni are forming a bloc, Kadima is not yet a part of it. The traditional 8PM press conference soon
Edit: Herzog and Livni agreed on PM rotation if they win. i truly can't understand how Herzog agreed
Edit #2: the bloc will be named "The Zionist Camp"...pretty lame

You know, they never miss an opportunity, etc.

EDIT: Kachlon's party will be called Kulanu (All of us)

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-likud-minister-kahlon-to-call-his-new-party-kulanu/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-likud-minister-kahlon-to-call-his-new-party-kulanu/)

Maybe Israel just needs "the Silly Party" and "The Sensible Party"

There's a Muslim running in the Jewish Home primaries who's attracted some attention named Anett Haskia: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188477#.VIjK2mTF9As

Herzog's appeal is based entirely on being "not Netanyahu" so maybe this won't effect him. Bowing to Livni makes him look weak as hell though and it highlights how power hungry Livni is. Doesn't look good in my view.

Seriously, I don't get Livni's deal.

It's not like Israeli politicians don't frequently come back from irrelevancy (Sharon, Bibi, Barack, Peretz). If she would just settle the F down, fly below the radar for a couple of cycles, she might be able to ride back in on a white horse.

Instead she just makes herself look desperate by constantly seeking power.

I'm probably jinxing myself though and she'll end up becoming PM.

Wat is this I don't even...

Well it's not a good deal (even with rotation Herzog could have gotten a better deal), I think Herzog needed some boost to really rise to the front row and be seen as a candidate. Livni has a dowry of the support of Yediot Ahronot and you can't battle for PM without it.

Former leader Yechimovic supports this move and came out supporting Herzog. MK Ben Eliezer announced his retirement from political life from his hospital bed

Regarding the Arab at JH, everywhere in the world you see this anomalies...an immigrants' child at Ukip, a Jew in FN, a black republican. Bottom line, The electoral significance is minor.

This article makes a decent case for the rotation... considering the stability of recent Israeli coalitions, it's not like Herzog is giving up much by giving Livni the final two years of his term.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-the-herzog-livni-merger-an-opposition-materializes/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-the-herzog-livni-merger-an-opposition-materializes/)

Also the drama he's getting right now is pretty major... even with his post nomination bump he was never beating Bibi. He has to hope that this is his floor rather than his ceiling.

hnv1, what is your opinion of Herzog as compared to past labor leaders; my impression is that he's pretty much average, a meh candidate in most respects.

And alas, more Jews are starting to support FN.

Also, what can we expect politically in the coming weeks? Any new campaign announcements etc?

He lacks charisma but he's rather intelligent. He to the left of Yechimovic on Peace issues but more centre on economic ones. He's a classic Labour prince connected to the old party establishment which will make him very popular with old people. From what I gather he's actually very gifted politically with combining different elements together as was seen during the 'Alternative Knesset' session. I do think he could make a good PM but he's a bit old school and sends a vibe of old Labour no PM since Eshkol had.
We will have to wait and see if he actually formulate into a good PM candidate, I personally believe he's the best since Mitzna and if he keeps gathering more elements under his banner he will look like a good leader though unexciting.

Lapid is a bit screwed right now with this union and I think he will lose and go futher down. He has nothing to run on, no one sees him as a possible PM and on economic issues Kachlon looks more exciting to the dumb centre voter.
There were rumours yesterday of a possible centre bloc with Liberman-Lapid-Kachlon, I find this very unlikely and any link with Liberman will see voters flock to Laour.

The question is what will Bibi do. He's not dumb and he feels the very hostile atmosphere, will he seek a union with JH? unknown yet but I'm sure he's hoping for a moderate list selected in the primariesץ


Meanwhile, Likud are really sinking to new lows calling Herzog a 'Nerd' and making misogynistic comments about Livni

In the parallel universe of Atlasia, Mr. Netanyahu decided to make a peace agreement with Palestine and this ended up splitting Likud (with Feiglin joining forces with Bennet), in the end Bibi was talking about making a peace deal and calling for "homebuilding". The whole situation resulted in a special election called in November of 2013, with the following results:

Jewish Home (Bennet-Feiglin): 23 [+4]
Labor (Yachimovich): 18 [+3]
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 15 [-4]
Meretz (Gal-On): 12 [+6]
Likud (Netanyahu): 10 [-3]
Shas (Deri): 9 [-2]
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman): 9 [-2]
United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni): 5 [-2]
Hatnuah (Livni): 5 [-1]
United Arab List (Sarsur): 4 [±0]
Hadash (Barakeh): 4 [±0]
Balad (Zahalka): 3 [±0]
Otzma LeYisrael (Eldad): 3 [+3]
Kadima (Mofaz): 0 [-2]

Peres decided to call for Mr.Yacimovich to make a Government and she ended up having a minority government (Netanyahu refused to make a Government with both Bennet and Yacimovich). In December, facing pressure both from her party and other political parties, Yacimovich is taken out from her leadership and Isaac Herzog takes the lead. He ends up calling for a unity government and is finally able to form a majority government. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=186571.0)

Now things start to get interesting: In order to ensure that Bennet is not able to be Prime Minister, Herzog fusions the Labor Party with Livni's Hatnuah, forming the Labor-Hatnuah or The Labor Movement. Then his coalition is based on the efforts of making a peace deal possible; he calls Meretz, Shas and Likud to form his party and he is finally able to start makes thing happen. Here it is his coalition and Cabinet.

"The Peace Coalition"

The Labor Movement– 23
Yesh Atid – 15
Meretz – 12
Likud – 10
Shas - 9

Total – 69 Members of the Knesset


The current government:

Prime Minister:  Isaac Herzog (The Labor Movement - 23)
Foreign Minister: Tzipi Livni (The Labor Movement- 23)
Minister of Finance: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid - 14)
Defense Minister: Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud - 10)
Public Security Minister: Amir Peretz (The Labor Movement – 23)
Justice Minister: Zahava Gal-On (Meretz - 12)
Minister of Industry, Trade and Labor: Arieh Deri (Shas – 9)[/center]

---

Now, you may be wondering why I have brought this Atlasian Utopia to you. It is specially because now I think that with Moshe Khachlon could serve as the "peaceful" Netanyahu and Likud that we had in Atlasia. I strongly believe that if Herzog and Livni can keep it up with their momentum, they are going to be able to form a government.

And this would be its probable face:
Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima + Yesh Atid + Kachlon's Kulanu + Meretz + Shas

It is going to be a rather centrist coalition with a small left tilt in Foreign Policy and I do think that this might be feasible, although not extremely likely.

In the above scenario it is much more likely that rather than accept Bibi Yachimovich takes in UTJ (Shas is already in the coalition anyway, and UTJ is more lefty than Shas on many issues)

EDIT: So new updates out of Shas and Jewish Home, where everybody hates everybody.

Basically, Deri offered Yishai second spot and a ministerial position if Shas were in the government. However, he apparently also wants Yishai to fill out a pre-pepared resignation letter that Deri can keep until Yishai starts acting... insubordinate. Yishai basically gave Deri the middle finger, and cancelled a join press conference of reconciliation. Likelihood is that he leaves as early as next week.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Discontent-grows-within-Shas-over-battle-to-lead-the-party-384288 (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Discontent-grows-within-Shas-over-battle-to-lead-the-party-384288)

In the meantime Bennett wants to limit the number of seats allotted to Tekuma from 4 to 2 or 3. From what I can understand, Ariel also wants to split, but he would have a harder time doing so than Yishai, as his faction is relatively small. If he does break though, chances are he would link up with Yishai.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Bayit-Yehudi-and-Tekuma-still-at-loggerheads-over-joint-electoral-list-384411 (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Bayit-Yehudi-and-Tekuma-still-at-loggerheads-over-joint-electoral-list-384411)

In minor-party news, far-far-right party Otzma LeYisrael, which came within a few tenths of a percent of getting into the Knesset in 2013, is being reorganized as Otzma Yehudit, to be led by former National Union MK Michael Ben-Ari.

Speculation continues to be rampant about the possibility of a joint Likud-JH list, or a joint Kulanu-YA list, but both in my judgement seems unlikely to happen.

Add to the speculation a joint Shas-Jewish Home list (LOL)
http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-shas-consider-alliance-to-counter-rebellious-party-members/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-shas-consider-alliance-to-counter-rebellious-party-members/)

My bet's that it's just noise but who knows... this IS Israeli politics after all.

It would be interesting to see the impact of the new threshold. Israeli politicians and voters do not have experience dealing with it. Will the small parties fade, once it becomes clear they are not making it, or are we going to see a few parties with around 2 or 3% of the vote each?

A poll of Arab voters apparently shows most would prefer, if an all-Arab parties list were to be formed, it would be headed by MK Ahmad Tibi: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602589,00.html .

The problem, of course, is that Hadash is not a fully Arab list, but, rather, a "non-Zionist" one. What would somebody like Dov Khenin do in a "United Arab Party"? And, though there may not be too many Jewish votes in that, but there are some, which could be lost that way. And, in any case, I do not think Hadash is in much danger of not making it at this point. Balad and UAL merging, though, would make a lot of sense at this point. If they do not, there is a big risk a chunk of Arab vote is lost. On the other hand, if they do merge, between them and Hadash there may be a larger than usual complement of Arab Party/non-Zionist MKs, which, in a close election, could make the government harder to form.

Eli Yishai has announced that he will attempt to have his party called Maran, which in Aramaic means "our master"; it was what the disciples of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef frequently called him, to the extent that the word is apparently today usually associated with Yosef. If, for whatever reason, this name is not approved by the Registrar, Yishai also announced the backup name Yahad (Hebrew for "together"), which has previously been used as a name twice: once by a center-left party founded by Ezer Weizmann that contested the 1984 elections and then merged into the Alignment (basically the forerunner of today's Labor Party), and from 2003-2004 the merger of Meretz and Shahar was called this (before reverting to the name Meretz, which was by far the dominant partner).

There've been so many different parties over the course of Israeli history that names are starting to have to be reused ::)

Meretz changed their name back because Yachad means "poison" in Russian.

As a Russian speaker I can tell you that, while it sounds similar to the word poison ("yad"), that is not what it means and in fact it is a nonsense word. They chose Yachad over the word Ya'ad (Hebrew for "goal") because ya'ad sounds like the word poison, and then changed it back to Meretz because Meretz is a brand name, nobody knew who they were when they were Yachad, and Yossi Beilin (previously the leader of Shahar, the smaller part of the merger) was elected leader of Meretz and acquiesced to the change back.

Also, Labor and Hatnuah have hammered out their agreement; Hatnuah will have 6 of the first 25 seats. The first four Hatnuah members (Livni/Mitzna/Peretz/Stern) should be able to get back into the Knesset; but beyond that it looks pretty dicey.

Yishai calls his party Maran, while Maran's daughter is staying with Deri.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.631743 (http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.631743)

I just have a feeling that this will backfire on Yishai...

Also, elections to the Meretz steering committee will take place December 28 (good luck hnv1!) and the list will be chosen January 19th.

Also, more on the Herzog-Livni deal: spot 17 will be reserved for an Arab, 18 for a Kibbutznik, and the 11th place is Herzog's to pick, he'll probably put Mofaz there.

EDIT: Bayit Yehudi MK Yoni Chetboun has left Bayit Yehudi. If Ariel wants to bring in major funding for a merger with Yishai, getting Chetboun is critical. Chetboun is of course sephardic.
http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/MK-Yoni-Chetboun-to-leave-Bayit-Yehudi-party-384643 (http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/MK-Yoni-Chetboun-to-leave-Bayit-Yehudi-party-384643)

And it looks like Yishai trolled us- the name will in fact be Ha'am Itanu- The Nation is with us

In his kickoff speech he sounds like a Kachlon copycat:
“The nation is with us because the nation wants unity, wants to finally break down the barriers between the religious and secular, between Ashkenazi and Sephardi [Jews],” Yishai said. “The nation is with us because the nation wants social justice and concern for the poor, to the underprivileged, the periphery and development towns."

Also, Chetboun has officially joined in with Yishai, but it doesn't seem like he'll be getting many if any Shas MKs, most of them pledged their loyalty to Deri already- then again you never know.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-shas-mk-yishai-called-traitor-as-he-unveils-new-party/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-shas-mk-yishai-called-traitor-as-he-unveils-new-party/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

I know it's just a platitude but breaking down the barriers between secular and religious sounds like an odd appeal from a party that is presumably trying to persuade Tekuma to join on the grounds that the Jewish Home isn't pious enough.

Here's a video of the Yishai press conference... all seemed to go smoothly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nplcoZXLn-I#t=87 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nplcoZXLn-I#t=87)

EDIT: So, people seem to be confused as to what exactly Yishai's party name will be- some say Ha'am Itanu, others say Yachad.

Chetboun was head to head with Yogev on the dumbest MK

Tkuma might stay with JH who are expecting a very interesting primaries with dozens of candidates/

Bibi wants to reserve two spots for his candidates (rumoured to be former almost Cos MG Gallant), so far the party tribunal declared the move void

Labor MP Avishay Braverman will not run for re-election.

there is no name yet.

Labor is trying to get Manuel Trajtenberg as their new resident economics expert.

Of course he's already being courted by Kahlon as well. I think that's where he'll end up going (if he runs at all) because he'll get a higher slot and is more likely to get a ministry that way.

I think if Herzog insists on having an economics wonk, it will probably end up being that Sephardic guy who was like number 13 or something on Livni's list last time whose name I can't remember. So no one good.

Bahloul will run with Labor, as will most likely Trajtenberg.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/soccer-radio-wiz-bahloul-likely-to-run-for-labor-seat/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/soccer-radio-wiz-bahloul-likely-to-run-for-labor-seat/)
This will be a loss for Meretz and Kachlon respectively.

Anyone know Trajtenberg's economic views?

centre-right. On one hand increase in government budgets to education and such and on the other disliking of a strong welfare state, high taxes and public ownership of many companies

What happens if Likud gets the exact same number of seats as either Jewish Home or the Labour coalition? Which one gets to try to form a coalition?

Whoever bribes Rivlin more :p

Just kidding, it's  whoever bribes Kachon more, since it's almost certain no one can get a majority without him, and it depends on how the other center parties do- the more seats Lieberman has, the more likely Bibi will form the coalition.

What's interesting is with the fragmentation of Shas, Yesh Atid now has a chance of being larger than Shas + UTJ, and so a secular-left coalition is not out of the running yet.

Trajtenberg is getting the spot people thought was going to Mofaz?

It doesn't go by which party is the biggest, the important thing is which party can form a coalition with a majority of Knesset members. Kadima had 1 more seat in 2009, but Bibi still became PM, because he managed to create a coalition.

He'll probably get the second spot secured for Livni's people (which will mean we'll see Mitzna booted to a very unrealistic place). Mofaz is not quite there yet and from what I gather from friends in Labour there are many people there who do'n't want to see him getting that spot. Mofaz is both right wing, unappealing, and has a hunch of huge debts with Kadima.
Diskin is still reluctant to hop in so Labour have to decide between Mofaz and former MG Yadlin (who isn't that dovish as well). We might see a very funny thing when Meretz will have an ex general on the list (Eyal Ben Reuven) and Labour won't.

Only 38 candidates  in the Labour primaries with no new big names. Bahloul I mentioned earlier decided to try his luck there.

I think that with the new threshold and the mess the political map is in we might even see another election very soon.

I thought Kadima will join the Labor-Hatnuah list.  What happen to that ?

Is Mofaz a 'wanted' recruit? He was Defense Minister for four years, is not corrupt, and can claim that he played a role in ending the Second Intifada. His electoral record isn't the best, but surely that's a profile parties might look for?

What is the probability of this happening?
EDIT: Nvm, here's a Ynet article mentioning him running, along with Avirama Golan and Avi Dabush:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602577,00.html (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602577,00.html)

About Trajtenberg, I guess I see the reason for him to join with Labor-Livni rather than Kachlon- since Labor-Livni is much more likely to form a coalition than Kachlon, he is in a better position to unconditionally demand the finance ministry, especially since Kachlon will possibly angle for that position also.

Regarding Mitzna, is there a possibility that he might run with labor, rather than accept 25th place or whatever through Livni? It is his old party after all.

I would actually think he had a much better chance at being Finance Minister with Kahlon.

Labor might form a coalition but they will need so many partners they are unlikely to have any of the big posts. Foreign, Defense, and Finance will all have to go to coalition partners.

Stern breaks with Livni, he may decide to join another party...
http://www.timesofisrael.com/mk-stern-breaks-from-hatnua-blames-livni/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/mk-stern-breaks-from-hatnua-blames-livni/)

More news on the lame duck Knesset:

Yisrael Hasson officially resigned and was replaced by the 6th person on the Kadima list, Yuval Zellner, a former Laborite best known for briefly replacing Tzipi Livni when she resigned after losing the Kadima leadership to Shaul Mofaz.

Former MKs Yohanan Plesner, Ronit Tirosh, and Shai Hermesh all opted not to bother taking the seat.

Also, and I'm surprised this didn't get more coverage, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer resigned for health reasons. It had been in the cards for a while but I'm surprised he didn't just finish his term.

The next person on the Labor list was appropriately Danny Atar, a protege of Ben-Eliezer. Like the Kadima members though, he opted not to take the seat and it was instead given to the next person on the list, Labor's top Arab Raleb Majadele. I wonder if he opted out for his own reasons or if Labor pressured him to get an Arab MK again.

Ironically, while she's originally from Acre, she moved to Kibbutz Yehiam, a place where in the last elections Meretz was the biggest party followed by Labour, Lapid, and Livni, with the right being almost non-existent. So an Arab moving into an all Jewish place, is going to be one of the only right wingers there.

A big corruption scandal involving Israel Beitenu (surprise surprise) with deputy minister Kirshenbaum, former minister Maszhinkov and many party politicos involved. Liberman is trying to break to the centre this might make him re-break to the right again

Likud comptroller disqualifies Netanyahu from Likud leadership race; PM likely to appeal

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Likud-comptroller-disqualifies-Netanyahu-from-Likud-leadership-race-PM-likely-to-appeal-385611

Wow.  Now that's intra-party infighting.  One way or another this does not make Netanyahu look that good for the general election.

I doubt anything comes out of this, and assuming Bibi will run as usual, I don't think people will care.

The actual Hatnuah members don't seem to be very enthusiastic about the agreement Livni has set up; both David Tzur and Amram Mitzna have announced over the past few days that they won't be seeking reelection; and Elazar Stern has already said that he would be seeking reelection with a party other than the new Labor-Hatnuah list (which it's increasingly clear is basically just Labor, with Trajtenberg having been recruited by Labor and promised one of Hatnuah's slots).

Former Ambassador to the US Michael Oren has joined Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu, the first notable person to do so, as far as I can tell.

The deal was good for Livni with the rotation, but was far less beneficial for the other party members. But it isn't a real problem since the Movement isn't a real party, just a tool that Livni needed, and she's the only one that really matters there.

RIP Mitzna :(

In other news, Third Temple advocate Yehuda Glick will be running for a spot on the Likud slate... he doesn't want to be placed in a realistic spot though.

Also with all these shenanigans Bennett must be squealing with excitement right now.

Another long shot Likud primary candidate:

Corrupt businessman and vote buying former MK Shmuel Flatto-Sharon, who was elected as an independent* to the Knesset way back in 1977.

*Yes, he ran as an independent under a party list system, actually won enough votes for 2 seats, and had to forgo the second one.

He's wealthy and might have an actual shot -- the interesting question is why now, at age 84, when he's had decades to return to politics should he want to.


Glick was in some unwinnable slot in 2013. This is basically just a way for him to endorse the Likud; I don't think he actually wants to be an MK.

I doubt this will have much effect at all. Kirshenbaum and Maszhinkov are faceless seatfillers. Lieberman will simply not reappoint them to realistic spots when he makes up his list.

*Misezhnikov was already kicked off the island in 2013; he's history. Kirschenbaum is supposed to be a very close Lieberman confidante, though, so we'll see if he's really willing to get rid of her. In the past, when Beiteinu MKs have gotten too controversial he's just knocked them off the list (Esterina Tartman and Anastasia Michaeli come to mind).

And Meir Sheetrit is out as well. So the only Hatnuah MKs on Labor's list will be Livni herself and Peretz, and of the others Stern is considering running as part of a different party and the other three are out.

JPost says that with Sheetrit and Ben-Eliezer gone in the next Knesset, Peretz will be the most senior MK. This depends on how you count, I think -- Peretz's service since 1988 is unbroken, but Uzi Landau was first elected in 1984, though he left 2006-2009.

Let's go, Likud!

The Labor Party has approved the candidacy of Eldad Yaniv in the primaries, who led the minor party Eretz Hadasha in 2013, but it has rejected the candidacy of Shachiv Shnaan, who has served twice as an MK: from 2008-2009 as a member of Labor, and from 2012-2013 as a member of the now-defunct Independence Party of Ehud Barak. There is now a third confirmed candidate for Kulanu, after Moshe Kahlon and Michael Oren: Eli Alaluf, who was the head of a Knesset-appointed anti-poverty commission.

EDIT: In further news, Am Shalem, a minor party led by former Shas MK Haim Amsalem, plans to run again in 2015. This will make it harder for Shas and Ha'Am Itanu to cross the threshold. Am Shalem got over 1% of the vote in 2013, but the new threshold should make Knesset seats basically impossible. Ayoob Kara, a Druze who has served three terms as a Likud MK (1999-2006 and 2009-2013) before being demoted to an impossibly low slot in 2013, is running for a spot on the Likud list, hoping to reenter the Knesset.

Didn't he merge with Likud like a year ago?

Arutz Sheva says he plans to run alone after being rebuffed by Jewish Home: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/189123#.VJyS9sAw

But JPost reported a while ago that he was going to seek a position on Likud's list: http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Haim-Amsallem-joins-Likud-criticizes-Bayit-Yehudi-for-stance-on-conversion-347309

So...

There was no merger, He simply joined the Likud himself and told his supporters to do the same. The problem for him is that the elections came too soon, which means that his supporters don't have the necessary tenure to vote in the primaries, so he gave up on that idea for the current elections, but hasn't officially announced what he will be doing instead.

Do the Likud typically reserve seats for minorities/non-Jews?

If so, Ayoob Kara probably has a good shot.

Likud didn't need him last time because Beytenu provided their own token Druze.

Not important but interesting:

Former Knesset Speaker and briefly Labor Party leader Avraham Burg has kinda sorta endorsed Hadash.

http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/53920-141209-my-message-to-the-arabs-of-israel

Not really surprising. I remember a few years ago he was planning to launch his own Arab-Jewish unity party but it never got off the ground.

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link (http://meretz.org.il/%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A2%D7%9E%D7%93%D7%99-%D7%95%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A2%D7%9E%D7%93%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%9E%D7%A8%D7%A6-%D7%9C%D7%A4%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%99%D7%9E%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%96-%D7%9C%D7%9B%D7%A0%D7%A1%D7%AA-%D7%94-20/)-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

Rabbi Ehud Bandel ran last time too and did horribly.

So, will five of those ten people running for the 2-6 bracket just not end up on the list? That hardly seems like a fair system.

They'll end up on the list, just not in a realistic spot. They'll be in the 17th-120th spots.

No, you can run for two brackets. All are except Gilon, Horowitz, and Frej. Gilon and Horowitz are currently 2 and 3 and so I don't think have much to worry about. Frej seems to be repeating his strategy from last time, when he stated that as the Arab rep, he wanted either to be in a realistic spot or no spot at all.

I think this is how the system works, but it would be nice if hnv1 went more in depth (can you run for three brackets?)

Good. He should be on their list. They should be able to elect two Jews.

This is how the Likud list will look like:

1) Head of the party, chosen in separate elections.
2-10, 12-15,17,20,25-26,31,34,36-117) National primary list
16,18-19,21-22,28-29,32-33,35) chosen in separate district primaries.
11,23,118-120) Hand picked choice by the head of the party.

within the national list there the following guarantees (cancelled if someone who fits this description is elected in a higher position) :
15) reserved for a woman.
23) Hand picked choice by the head of the party.
24) reserved for a non-Jew.
25) reserved for a woman who hasn't previously serve as an MK.
27) reserved for a a person who has immigrated since 1983, and hasn't previously served as an MK.
30) reserved for someone who is under 35 years old, and hasn't previously served as an MK.
31) reserved for a woman.
34) reserved for a woman who hasn't previously serve as an MK.


So there is a spot reserved for a non-Jew, but 24 isn't guaranteed to be enough. He also has a Muslim former army general and head of the Zarzir council running against him for this spot.

Are people talking about who will win the Likud primary (ie the number 2 spot) yet?

Presumably Erdan should get it pretty easily, since he's consistently been the top vote getter of the people still running.

He's always struck me as very generic though. I don't understand his appeal. Is there a chance Dannon could win? Netanyahu would have to be scared of that, right?

In other news, Danon is literally a man-child:
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=834060653283841 (https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=834060653283841)

Not the first for videos like this, last elections we had "Elkin Style": http://youtu.be/wG5B5fE7_1k (http://youtu.be/wG5B5fE7_1k)

I don't think Dannon could win, there are too many people that dislike him, I would expect Ardan, Yisrael Katz, or maybe Silvan to win, as they don't have as many enemies.

Yeah the system is pretty weird (it's also gender balanceed, meaning every second spot is reserved for women). Why are only national convention members voting on the list? well back in the days the Kibbutz had an unbalanced power amongs members and this day the Tel Aviv branch has unbalanced power and this system assures a fairer race.

Well the very quick process (they local primaries and the national primaries are a week apart) forced  by the shock elections made  it very hard for new outside contenders to compete. None of them had a functioning election staff yet (part for Dabush).

There are no new "big" name. Zaki was umber 10 in 2013, Lasky ran in 2009. Vilan and Raz run every time (the joke is what ever spot Raz is Meretz get minus 2 mandates). Ron Shavit was a minor journalist. Nir Lahav is big in the cooperative movement, and Itai Svirsky is the leader of a new democratic workers' union Kock Laovdim - power to the workers). The rest are pretty mediocre local figures.

The downside of this process is the election are almost 60% pre-set by the 4-5 different groups of the convention.

Regarding the Likud I think it will be Ardan at #2 (generic and avoids conflicts) and than Katz (the opposite). Either way the interesting primaries will be that of the JH

What's the overall mood in Likud right now? Is it going to be like last time where there was a slaughter of the moderates?

Predicting Primaries is hard, but I expect that almost all the incumbents running again will be fine.

What happened to Ben Reuven and Golan? Was there a problem with paperwork or something or did they back out? Also have you figured out how you will be voting for the first and second brackets?

What moderates are there left to slaughter?

True enough.

It would still be unpleasant for Netanyahu though, if Danon and Feiglin went up on the list and his own favored candidates stayed static or went down.

Apparently Netanyahu favors Akunis, Hanegbi and Hotovely.

So... this happened:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.634376 (http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.634376)

Deri and Yishai have been an entertaining mess this election.

In other news, Benet has reserved a spot on the list for his new recruit, newscaster Yinon Magal. Haaretz notes vaguely that "some in the party were unhappy" with Benet reserving a spot for Magal; Arutz Sheva goes in more depth (as might be expected of a website that doesn't hide its support for Benet/religious Zionism), explaining that the two noted sources of criticism are Rabbi Shimon Or and Raz Kiel, who are both new recruits running in the Jewish Home's primaries; basically they're angry no spot is reserved for them.

Also, Uzi Landau, who served as a Likud MK from 1984-2006 and then a Yisrael Beiteinu MK 2009-present, and was in the Cabinet under Sharon's Likud government and then throughout Netanyahu's second government, announced his retirement from politics amid Yisrael Beiteinu continuing to sink in the polls (though his reelection was probably assured; the party is above the threshold in all polling, and he was #2 on the list in 2009 and #3 of Yisrael Beiteinu's list in 2013). He is 71; this means there will be no remaining MKs left from before the 1988 election, though there are still many left from 1988, absolutely none have continuous service (!); though former Labor leader Amir Peretz will be the most-senior member of the Knesset, as his only break since 1988 was a resignation in 2012, and he returned in 2013.

EDIT: Also, I haven't been able to find English-language reporting on the results of Meretz's primaries, which I believe took place yesterday. Hnv, I know you're a party member -- have the results been announced yet? If so, what are they?

Apparently in his move to the center, Lieberman was plotting to kick his right flank off the island... the three the article mentioned were Landau, Shamir, and Rotem. Maybe Landau got the hint early?

Kicking Shamir off would be a pretty remarkable move just 2 years after recruiting him and giving him the #2 spot. Rotem would make sense; he's been around since 2007 and has made enemies in that time.

JPost has an article about the Likud primaries. All current Likud MKs, with the exception of veteran MK and minister Limor Livnat, are seeking reelection. JPost lists five prominent non-incumbent candidates: Avi Dichter, who was a Kadima MK from 2006-2012, and a minister under Olmert and Netanyahu; Ayub Kara, a Druze who has been a Likud MK from 1999-2006 and 2009-2013; Michael Ratzon, who was a Likud MK 2003-2006; Nava Boker, the widow of former Israeli Police Commissioner Lior Boker; and Jerusalem city councilman Yair Gabbay. Likud currently has 19 MKs (18 seeking reelection) and is expected to gain a number in the low 20s, so a few of these people may well (re)enter the Knesset.

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

Who's the third member since Ben-Dahan decided to stay with Jewish Home? (He's one of those 4 Tkuma members).

Also, since we're talking about these right-wing factions, I have a question -- does Moledet still exist? It definitely existed as a faction within the National Union during the 2009-2013 Knesset, when Ya'akov Katz was widely reported to be its sole MK. In 2013, Hatikva and Eretz Yisrael Shelanu merged to form Otzma LeYisrael, which was excluded from the Knesset, while Tkuma and Moledet joined with Jewish Home. But while it's known who the members of JH are that are really part of Tkuma, it's not clear whether any Jewish Home MKs consider themselves to be part of Moledet, or if Katz was really the final one.

The three members are Ariel, Stuck, and Kalfa. Chetboun was not a part of Tekumah.

I don't know if Moledet still exists but the guy who was their leader, American born Uri Bank, is running in the Jewish Home primaries. He seems to be running a serious campaign as well. Last time he didn't really try and ended up like 20th on the Jewish Home list.

Also, I don't think Ya'akov Katz was a member of Moledet, I know it was reported but I think it was wrong. I think he wasn't a member of any particular faction within the National Union.

Chetboun wasn't, but Ben-Dahan was...but when I searched for a source to prove it I discovered he switched to 'regular' Jewish Home to protest Tkuma considering running with HaAm Itanu (which it didn't, but still...). So your post was absolutely right. Tkuma still has four spots "reserved", which'll presumably go to Ariel, Strook, Kalfa, and a new person.

Yep they backed off due to the short timescale I reckon.
Haven't fully set my mind yet but probabely Raz, Gilon, Zandberg, Freg will be in the first 5. On the second one I'm still undecided...

Yesterday was not the primaries for the party list but rather for electing representatives to the national convention. Primaries will be held in 2 weeks I think.

Deri resigned the Knesset!

Oh, I see.


And called for Ariel Atias to replace him in both the Knesset and as party leader. Shas' Council of Torah Sages rejected his resignation as leader of the party when the tape was first released, so they may still ask Deri to lead Shas in the elections.

Did he announce he was resigning the Knesset at the same time as he tried to step down as party leader?

It was my understanding that he asked to resign as party leader, that request was rejected by the Torah Scholars or whatever, and now he's gone over their head by resigning the Knesset.

No. The timeline is, Yishai leaked the tapes. Deri asked the Council to resign as party leader. They refused. Now he's resigned from the Knesset, and in his (public) resignation letter he refused the rabbis' refusal of his resignation and recommended ex-MK Atias to replace him. On Arutz Sheva they quote a few Shas MKs defending Deri and expressing support for the Council in their attempt to get him to reconsider. It also says Deri will meet with the rabbis on Tuesday (that is, today), so there may be more information out very soon.

In centrist-party news, Yesh Atid MK Adi Koll announced she won't be seeking reelection; she wasn't a minister, but she was #9 on the list in 2013, which would've been a realistic but not guaranteed slot today. Also, Kachlon is reportedly recruiting the Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem, Rachel Azaria, who is an "Orthodox feminist", to join him on his list -- she checks a lot of boxes.

I think the most surprising development in Israeli politics in the last decade is that no one defected from Yesh Atid.

All the Shas MKs also tendered resignation letters....
http://www.timesofisrael.com/shas-party-leader-deri-set-to-resign/ (http://www.timesofisrael.com/shas-party-leader-deri-set-to-resign/)

We'll see if the Rabbis accept it. It could just be that Deri is hoping for an outpouring of support. He still has two days in which to revoke it.

If you are wondering about the date for the primaries:

Likud: 31/12
Labour:13/1
Jewish Home: 14/1
Meretz: 19/1

In a surprise move, MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz) announces he's retiring.

The Shas inner fighting is currently the best show in town. I fear that JH wil benefit the most out of it.

Corruption investigation is going forward with the governmental "settlement division" being raided by police

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Is there any reason why? "Wanting to go in a new direction doesn't seem convincing...

Also, when can we expect results from the Likud primary?

EDIT: It seems that the Committee elections a few days ago didn't go well for him. Still I can't imagine he was in any real danger, given his prominence and popularity.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Meretz-MK-Nitzan-Horowitz-leaves-politics-after-six-years-386280 (http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Meretz-MK-Nitzan-Horowitz-leaves-politics-after-six-years-386280)

Polls closed an hour ago. We should be getting results very very soon.

Danon has conceded to Netanyahu (no big surprise)

Results for the list may not come out until Friday. Why so long though? New Years?

Netanyahu is winning 85-15 from the first results of about 3000 votes, nothing to see here.

The results should be out in a few hours, although it might take longer until they are official.

Also, just for the sake of trivia, do people celebrate New Years in Israel?

Privately yes, but there isn't a national holiday.

Russians in Israel most certainly do; it was one of the most important holidays of the year in the Soviet Union.

Bibi's margin has gone down a bit, he's at 75-80%.

After 12% of the vote counted:
1) Ardan
2) Edelstein
3) Yisrael Katz
4) Elkin
5) Levin
6) Shalom
7) Ye'elon
8 ) Akunis
9) Gamliel
10) Regev

Regev jumped to 4th.

Gross. Regev is the one who called African migrants cancer and then when she was confronted about it, apologized to cancer patients but not Africans. And also brought up the Holocaust for no reason.

Danon's not even in the top 10 at this point? Did his leadership run actually damage him?

He's now up to 10th with 20% counted. Keep in mind that Jerusalem and the settlements aren't in yet, which means that Feiglin is currently out.

She was put in the "recommended" list of the big Likud unions this time and was expected to be higher up this time.

Which unions are those? Is the one Haim Katz is the leader of one of them?

David Levi's son won his district race and will be in the 18th spot.

Yes, The big one the Aeronautics workers union, which is headed by Haim Katz.

I haven't previous heard about Levy's son. Is he fairly moderate? That must be good news for Netanyahu.

Can't find anything about his opinions, just that he used to be mayor of Bet Shean.

Edelstein moved ahead of Ardan into first.

Lots of sites reporting that Moshe Feiglin will not be in a realistic spot.

Also, right before the primary, Miri Regev had said that if Netanyahu didn't appoint her as a minister, she would "make a coup." This might have contributed to her becoming the most popular woman in Likud, although the results overall don't seem especially anti-Bibi.

the almost final list:

1) Netanyahu
2) Ardan
3) Edelstein
4) Yisrael Katz
5) Regev
6) Shalom
7) Ye'elon
8 ) Elkin
9) Hanegbi
10) Dannon
11) (Bibi's pick)
12) Levin
13) Steinitz
14) Gamliel
15) Akunis
16) David Bitan (district)
17) Haim Katz
18) Jaki Levi (district)
19) Yoav Kish (district)
20) Avi Dichter (the only “new” guy from the national list)
21) David Amsalem (district)
22) Micki Zohar (district)
23) (Bibi's pick)
24) Ayub Kara (minority)
25) Nava Boker (new woman)
26) Hotobeli
27) Avraham Nagusa (new immigrant)

So Feiglin is out and Hotovely is out without a lot of luck?

Yes

What happened to Hotovely? She didn't seem to be a particularly controversial or prominent member. And who are likely to be Bibi's two picks? Is he going to parachute in star candidates, or put in his own loyalists, or could he promote people who did poorly in the primaries who he feels deserve election?

Part of it is that going to events of party activists is quite useful for getting elected, something that Hotovely isn't known for doing much of. The other thing is that 20K new people joined the Jewish Home in the last few weeks, some of those came from the Likud, and the sort of people that would go from the Likud to JH are likely to have voted for Hotovely.

Final vote count for the national list:

position   candidate   votes   notes
1   Gilad Ardan   36287   
2   Yuli Edelsein   33900   
3   Yisrael Katz   33259   
4   Miri Regev   31090   
5   Silvan Shalom   28106   
6   Moshe Ye'elon   27096   
7   Ze'ev Elkin   24274   
8   Tzachi Hanegbi   23538   
9   Danny Dannon   22994   
10   Yariv Levin   22497   
11   Yuval Steinitz   22481   
12   Gila Gamliel   22381   
13   Ofir Akunis   21914   
14   Haim Katz   21074   
15   Avi Dichter   20085   
16   Tzipi Hotovely   19331   
17   Moshe Feiglin   13224   
18   Ayub Kara   13115   Moved up for being minority
19   Michael Ratzon   10286   
20   Idan Pinhas   9996   
21   Shevach Shtern   6973   
22   Avraham Nagusa   6801   Moved up for being new immigrant
23   Oren Hazan   5381   
24   Nava Boker   5276   Moved up for being new woman
25   Shai Malka   4511   
26   Miriam Heskel   3739   
27   Amir Veitman   3493   
28   Osnat Mark   3335   
29   Ayelet Galili   2995   
30   Patin Mula   2920   
31   Naftali Naor   2914   
32   Hassan Hayeb   2747   
33   Ayala Shtegman   1501   
34   Netanel Lipan   1336   
35   Ya'akov Keinan   1116   
36   Shimon Sharel   1110   
37   Jacki Pinto   939   
38   Silva Mizrahi   600   

On one hand Bibi can paint this list as more centrist; on the other hand, it's very dull and boring. But considering Labour+Livni is going to be rather dull and centrist as well I think we'll finally have a head to head election between the parties again.

When is the deadline for submitting the lists, so we'll know about all the candidates and all non-candidates? End of January?

shalom dany,

how did Moshe Feiglin get to number 17 on your list ?
and where did you get this final list from ?

It's sorted by the number of votes recieved not by final placement

This is not the final likud list, this is just votes for the national list. The final list will include Bibi, his two hand picked choices , and the district candidates. You can find the full list a few posts earlier.

Has there been any speculation about who Bibi will pick?

Might he pick Hotovely, since apparently they are close now? Or would that be too anti-democratic and cause resentment?

I don't know who he will pick, but I don't think it will someone who ran in the primaries. Also, Hotovely has a good chance of getting in anyway, close elections could cause votes to go towards the big two, like in 2009.

January 29.

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

The polls look unusually stable, except for certain scandal-magnet parties.

Not good news for Netanyahu

Netanyahu 'repelled' by style of Likud's new top-ranked woman

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.634996

Or is this a way for Netanyahu to look more moderate ?

Who is Shas tanking good for? Jewish Home?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

Damn.  Any particular reason why the relationship between him and Gal-on was so bad?

By rumours, He thought she (meaning the party) didn't back him enough for the mayor run. And my assumption is she also feared he would try to run against her for leadership considering he's more popular with the general public

Former Knesset Speaker and former Labor MK Avraham Burg has officially joined Hadash.

Burg ran for Labor party leader in the '00s and actually won the title for a little bit but his victory was overturned in a recount.

His father was the leader of the National Religious Party, which became The Jewish Home.

He's been identifying as non-Zionist for a while and he already endorsed Hadash so this latest move isn't all that surprising.

Still, it's quite an image.

Haaretz reports that Faina Kirschenbaum asked Lieberman not to seek reelection, but that Lieberman convinced her to seek another term on the Yisrael Beiteinu list. JPost reports that Netanyahu is looking for a woman to fill the 11th slot on the Likud list, and speculates that Miriam Feirberg, the mayor of Netanya, could be it. Arutz Sheva has a conspiracy theory-ish but interesting article out saying that prominent Netanyahu ally and Modi'in mayor Haim Bibas waged an undercover anti-Feiglin campaign that was responsible for his poor showing.

Jewish Home's primaries will be on the fourteenth, but Jewish Home is more obsessed with reserving spots than Likud, so large parts of the list are already apparent. Slot 1 is reserved for the leader -- Naftali Bennett. Slots 2, 9, 14, and 18 are reserved for members of Tkuma -- likely to be Uri Ariel, Zvulun Kalfa, Orit Strook, and someone new, in that order (though Strook could be bumped up for being a woman). Slots 4, 8, 12, and 17 are reserved for women, with 4 likely to go to MK Ayelet Shaked and 8 likely to go to MK Shuli Moalem. Slots 3, 6, and 11 are reserved for candidates of Bennett's choosing, with star candidate Yinon Magal having been promised one of these slots and likely to get the third. Lastly, 10 is reserved for a member of the Jewish Home's national committee, so it will certainly be someone new -- there are four candidates running for this slot. So, heavily speculative, this is what the top ten Jewish Home list looks like:

1. Naftali Bennet (leader)
2. Uri Ariel (leader of Tkuma)
3. Yinon Magal (or whoever Bennett picks; Yinon Magal has been promised a slot)
4. Ayelet Shaked (top-ranked woman is very likely to be Shaked)
5. top male candidate in primaries -- probably either Nissan Slomiansky or Eli Ben-Dahan?
6. another candidate of Bennett's choosing
7. whoever is next in the primaries -- either Slomiansky or Ben-Dahan, whoever's not in slot 5
8. second woman -- speculated to be Shuli Moalem
9. Zvulun Kalfa (2nd on Tkuma list is probably Kalfa)
10. member of JH's national committee -- probably party chairman Nir Orbach, but also running are Netanya chairman Daniel Bashari, along with lesser-known Amiad Taub and Hagit Moshe

Do you think there will be a significant number of people who won't vote for a Meretz without Horowitz? And who do you think is most likely to replace him?

I read the JH rules a bit differently.
1) The Tkuma members come separately, so the different reservations don't consider this and are then moved back, so the number 4 spot reserved for women will really be at number 5.
2) The chosen by the Bennet part only says that Bennet can put one person in every five spots by his choosing, but again this only for JH and not related to Tkuma, and doesn't limit the specific place beyond one in each five. Also, it is quite likely that Bennet doesn't use all of his theoretically available spots.

JPost disagrees with this, but I'll trust your reading of the rules in Hebrew over my reading of a journalistic account of them in English.


JPost seems to suggest it's just three slots (one in the first five, one in the second five, and one in the third), or alternatively that Bennet only intends to use three slots. But again, I'll trust you on this.

I agree with danny as well.

At least, it's what happened with Likud last time.

Ayoob Kara got a seat reserved for minorities on the Likud list, which was in the realistic 20s. Then Likud and YB smashed their list together and the 22nd or whatever spot on the Likud list became something in the mid30s of YB.

Jpost doesn't actually disagree, the just leave it vague and don't say what happens. The JH rulebook for the primaries make no mention of this either but since they are not part of this process, it makes more since the way I read it.


In this case I have no idea where Jpost is getting this from, because it certainly can't be from the official rulebook posted on their site.

The Hadash convention today has authorized the party to unite with RAAM and BALAD.

Forgive me for venting, some a--- on the wikipedia Israel election polling website removed the combined 'left-right' aggregate seat totals that some kind person had been posting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Israeli_legislative_election,_2015

I know of the political views of the parties, but there are so many! Can some kind person here please tell me which Israeli party is one the left and which is one the right?

There is a good reason not to aggregate the seat totals, and that is because they can mean various things, and some parties don't identify with either side anyway. Aggregating is pretty pointless, especially if you try to shove parties into two groups.

While I'm sure that is the reason the aggregate totals were removed I disagree that it's pretty pointless if you're hoping to quickly see who is most likely to head a coalition government!

It's not really good for that either.

Kulanu, Shas, and UTJ could join either a right or left government. To a lesser extent, so could Yisrael Beytenu. Yesh Atid is also not totally committed to the left, although it probably will be this campaign.

The aggregate totals do not give you that information, since parties from either "side" can join into both coalitions, and other parties wouldn't join either.

The person who posted the aggregate numbers based it on whether the party was a member of the Likud coalition or the opposition in the last Knesset.

That's not really applicable, since there have been new parties created since 2013 and there is also one case of two parties running together one list (Labor-Hatnuah) where one party did not participate but the other did. So...that system can't work.

That, and it still doesn't tell you anything about the next government. Just because a party wasn't in the last likud government, doesn't mean it won't be in the next one, and vice versa.

Yes, he was the more mainstream of the MKs and I think some voters will trend Labour due to that.
Also, considering the union of the Arab parties and Hadash some of their voters will trend to Meretz.

who would replace him? I think Uri Zaki (life partner of MK Zandberg) had a really high amount of his supporters elected to the convention and he might be selected. If not than maybe Mossi Raz or Abu Vilan with the support of the Kibbutz vote and Gilon supporters

In some ridiculous news, all kinds of mistakes were found in the Likud primary results, with the corrected results moving Danny Dannon and Yariv Levin up into number 9 and 10, respectively, and overtaking Hanegbi that moves into number 12. Hotovely almost passed Dichter which would have moved her from number 26 into number 20. She closed the gap from 745 votes to just 55.

Sore loserman MK Moshe Feiglin will break from Likud to form his own party, which may either contest the election itself or ally with another right wing prty such as Haam Itanu or Otzma...

Elohim Israeli politics are hard to follow !

It isn't a proper Israeli election without a bunch of parties splitting, uniting or being founded.

Netanyahu might regret forcing Feiglin out of the party. If a Feiglin/Ben-Ari party (which would be pretty untouchable in coalition terms) makes it into the Knesset, it will make a narrow right-religious government impossible.

Also, Labor-Livni will not appear on the ballot as "The Zionist Camp" because they don't want to alienate Arab voters. They will announce their official name after the primary.

The former commander of South Command, Yoav Galant, is joining Kulanu. Galant was nominated for Chief of Staff in 2011, but his appointment was controversially canceled by Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

Cancelled for taking over some public lands for himself, something for which he apologised for today.

Today's campaign was centred around gay marriage after a video came up where a bunch of People running in the Jewish Home primaries. No one supported it, although some supported an alternative of some kind that would give rights but wouldn't be called marriage, and one simply said that he would consider the issue and consult with people while keeping in mind the party he is in (Danny Dayan).

This caused an uproar and accusations of homophobia, although this shouldn't be surprising at all coming from JH.

This did cause a journalist to send a question from all the parties about whether they support gay marriage. Labour, Yesh Atid, and Meretz said they support it. Bennet went on TV and said that they support some rights for gay couples, but not marriage. Kulanu gave a non-answer saying people should live as they believe. Likud said that it hasn't yet formulated an opinion on the matter, a position which I don't expect to change until the election.

Individual Likud MK's have come out on both sides of the issue in the past, Regev Yeelon and Hanegbi support. I know Edelstein said he was against and there are probably others.

Is there anyone opposed to secular marriage but in support of gay marriage?

Haven't checked but I doubt it.

When are the JH primaries going to take place? I've seen 'January 5' in a lot of places but that obviously can't be right, since they'd be over in that case.

I see. Thank you!

Interior Defence Minister Aharonovic announces his departure from political life as well. Liberman's party is breaking apart it seems

An Arutz Sheva article about a different topic casually mentioned at one point that Lieberman intends to promote popular MK Orly Levy (sister of very likely Likud newbie Jackie Levy) to spot #2 on the YB list ( http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/189714#.VLBIOmTF9As ) -- is that true?

The article says that Orly Levy and Netanya mayor Miriam Feirberg were Netanyahu's first two choices, but apparently they both seem unlikely to take the offer. I think 11th on the Likud list might be safer than 2nd on the YB list at this point, but I guess that's debatable. Hotovely is actively campaigning to have one of the two slots.

So Yisrael Beitenu is running alone this time? Are they willing to only enter into a coalition with Likud, or would they consider one with Labor-Livni et al. ?

Old news, dude. Yes, they're running alone. Apparently Lieberman is trying to appear less right-wing this time around (actually it would be more accurate to say he's trying to be all things to all people, saying Netanyahu should have launched a ground invasion of Gaza and he should negotiate more). I suspect if push came to shove, he would still join a Likud led coalition pretty easily. Labor is also a real possibility though (and they will probably need him to form a government), as is sitting out and being in the opposition. Of course, this isn't that big of a shift for him, he did sit with Kadima and Shas under Olmert.

Well as I see it:
- he tried breaking centre with the help of Yediot Ahronot
- his party got involved in one of the biggest corruption cases which made him re-break right
- most of the "independent" seniors of his party got tired from taking his sh**t and he got tired from hearing them which explains the departure wave
- now he's floating no where...Maariv and Yediot are trying to promote him but it doesn't seem to be getting to people.
- Lots of the Russian and right wing voters will trend JH with a bit more trending Likud and  I think his ceiling right now is around 6-7

Some more speculation about who Bibi might pick:

"Several commenters suggested political figures, such as Deputy Minister Tzipi Hotovely, who was elected in the primaries to the 26th spot and is in danger of not making it into the Knesset; former ministers Benny Begin and Dan Meridor, who did not make it into the Knesset in the previous election; MK Orly Levi-Abekasis of Yisrael Beiteinu; Be’er Sheva Mayor Rubik Danilovich; Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat; General (res.) Yoav Galant; and Father Gabriel Nadaf, leader of a group advocating that Israeli Christians join the army."

Of course, the article this is from was written the day before Yoav Galant joined Kulanu.

Tkuma has chosen their candidates (place in the combined list with JH):

1 (2) Uri Ariel (ran unopposed for leadership)
2 (9) Bezalel Smotrich (the new guy who beat the incumbents)
3 (14) Orit Struk
4 (18) Zevulun Kalfa

Deri's resignation from the Knesset officially went through but not the resignations of the other Shas members.

Don't worry, he'll be back soon.

Feiglin won't run for this election but he will form his own party with the aim of running for the next next election.

Labor primary on Tuesday.

The race for top spot will be between former leader Shelly and Eitan Cabel, who is ideologically exactly the same as Shelly but is backed by Herzog.

You may remember in the last Labor primary, when Shelly was leader, the race for top spot was between Peretz (who was ideologically identical to Shelly but Shelly didn't want him to win) and Herzog, who was backed by Shelly as the anti-Peretz candidate.

Labor.

Three pieces of big news:

1) Kind of expected, but Aryeh Deri will rejoin Shas and will run as party leader. The past week of polling has looked pretty good for him, with Yishai under the threshold in almost all polls and Shas consistently getting 5-7 seats; obviously a decline from 2013, but polling at the end of December had called Shas' very survival into question.

2) Yisrael Beiteinu MK Faina Kirschenbaum won't seek reelection because of corruption allegations. Kirschenbaum was never a minister, but she was considered to be a very close confidante of Lieberman, who apparently tried to dissuade her from retiring. She is the fourth Yisrael Beiteinu MK to retire, after MK David Rotem and Ministers Yitzhak Aharonovich and Uzi Landau.

3) Moshe Kachlon has recruited Ethiopian-Israeli journalist/radio station director Tzaga Malko to be #3 on his list -- she will be the highest-ranked woman on the Kulanu list. Of the top seven people on the Kulanu list, 3 are women. The articles I saw made a very big deal of this, but it isn't really that impressive -- Labor and Meretz will very likely both have the same proportion.

Any results from the Labor primary yet?

They said the results will be announced at 9:30 local time (2:45 hours from now).

NVM, results are in:
1) herzog
2) Livni (Movement)
3) Yechimovich
4) Shaffir
5) Shmuli
6) Bar Lev
7) Yechiel Bar (reserved for party secretary general)
8 ) Presumably Peretz (movement)
9) Michaeli
10) Cabel
11) (Herzogs pick)
12) Margalit
13) Rosental
14) Revital Sweid
15) Danny Atar
16) (Movement)
17) Bahaloul (minority)
18) Eitan Broshi (kibutzim and Moshavim)
19) Biran
20) Shay
21) (movement)
22) Ayelet Verbin
23) Yossi Yona
24) (Movement)
25) (Movement)

Holy crap.

Eitan was supposed to come in first or second. Instead he came in sixth.

On top of that, Shaffir is a Shelly ally who came in second.

I guess if Herzog doesn't become PM, Shelly will be able to re-take leadership.

The two incumbent MKs who fell to unrealistic spots are Moshe Mizrahi and Arab MK Raleb Majadele, who just re-entered the Knesset like a week ago.

As far as I know, there was nothing really wrong with Mizrahi. His loss seems kind of random, like Hotovely's in the Likud primary.

I think he's a Shelly supporter though, so unlike Hotovely, there's no chance he'll get airdropped into one of the leader's picks' slots

Moshe Mizrahi is number 29, Majadle is at 35.
Eldad Yaniv whom headed his own small party last election is at 30.

It seems Labor will run on the same socioeconomic agenda they campaigned on last time.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.636980 (http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.636980)

Only time will tell whether or not it will be more successful.

Moshe Mizrahi is most famous for overseeing a corruption case against Avigdor Liberman. With him gone, it will be easier for Labor to form a government with Beytenu.

Voters might have even shunned him specifically for this reason.

Not really. She ran as if she's keeping unity and boosting Herzog Similar to Peres to Rabin in the 91 primaries.
I doubt she can gather support for retaking leadership. If Herzog fails I suspect a Diskin, Margalit, Random tri-run

So the Labour Livni union will be called "The Zionist Camp" after all.
Also Kachlon seems to have made up his mind and now says that he supports same sex marriage.

Now the Jewish Home primaries.

It's looking like Shaked got the first place in the JH primaries.

The results:
1) Naftali Bennett,
2) Uri Ariel (Tekuma)
3) Ayelet Shaked
4) Eli Ben-Dahan
5) Nissan Slomiansky
6) Uri Orbach
7) Yinon Magal
8) Shuli Mualem
9) Bezalel Smotrich (Tekuma)
10) Moti Yogev
11) Avi Wortzman
12) Nir Orbach
13) Avi Ronski
14) Spot designated for a woman
15) Orit Struck (Tekuma)
16) Ronen Shoval
17) Spot designated for a woman.
18)Zvulun Kalfa

Minister Yair Shamir (son of) is the laters senior to be booted of Liberman's list.
Polls are giving him around 6-7 seats right now and I can't help but enjoying his fall.

Yes, there really is nothing quite like a big glass of schadenfreude sometimes.

Lieberman seems to be embracing his corruption, saying that he is pleased with the results of the Labour primaries, because Moshe Mozrahi and Eldad Yaniv (two politicians whose main agenda is fighting coruption) lost, calling them (the Hebrew equivalent of) rats.

Corrected results:
1) Naftali Bennett
2) Uri Ariel (Tekuma)
3) Ayelet Shaked
4) Eli Ben-Dahan
5) Nissan Slomiansky
6) Uri Orbach
7) Yinon Magal
8 ) Shuli Mualem
9) Bezalel Smotrich (Tekuma)
10) Moti Yogev
11) Avi Wortzman
12) Nir Orbach
13) Avi Ronski
14) Orit Struck (Tekuma)
15) Yehudit Shilat
16) Ronen Shoval
17) Sarah Eliash
18) Zvulun Kalfa (Tekuma)
19) Avihai Boaron
20) Moshe Solomon

Someone named Or ran against Bennett for leader of Jewish Home? I didn't even hear about this. He lost 90/10. What was his platform? Was he a NRP type?

Rabbi Shimon Or?
All I read about him is he wants the National Religious to seize control of the Israeli government from the seculars and run the country to suit themselves.

He's a nobody, I doubt most of his voters even knew who he was.

Kulanu list:

1 Moshe Kahlon
2 Yoav Galant (corrupt general)
3 Tzaga Malko (Ethiopian lady journalist)
4 Michael Oren (former Ambassador to the US)
5 Rachel Azaria (Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem)
6 Eli Alaluf (head of the Committee to Fight Poverty)
7 Yifat Sasa-Bitton (Former Deputy Mayor of Kiryat Shmona)
8 Eli Cohen (VP of Israel Land Development Company)
9 Roy Folkman (adviser to Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat)
10 Meirav Ben-Ari (Tel Aviv city councilwoman)
11 Shai Babad (head of commercial television and radio regulatory board)

Bibi announces no unity government after the election, brilliant move by him.

Interesting but not important:

Former Hatunah MK Robert Tiviaev ran directly in the Labor primaries and is now number 28 on the list, although he received few votes and was bumped up for being an immigrant (he's Russian and also a former Beytenu member).

I think it's admirable that he choose to run in the primary. In retrospect though, he might have been better off staying in Hatunah and getting an appointment.

The Legal wrangling is still going on in the Likud, Hotovely is now ahead of Dichter, and into the twentieth spot. Dichter will appeal.

Interesting note: of the Hadash MKs that were elected in 2013, Khenin will be the only one in the next Knesset. Barakeh and Agbaria announced they're retiring today. This also leaves Tibi as the only lausible choice to head a joint list.

Zahalka got a 74% vote of confidence in the Balad primaries today, so he'll continue there.

Would the Israelis here know who else is running in these primaries?

Ayman Ouda was elected as the new leader of Hadash, beating Samakh Iraqi 427-302. Ouda was against a united Arab party, so this might cause Hadash not to merge.

Zouabi will be number 2 again for Balad, beating Hiba Yazbek 201-189.

Elazar Stern previously from the Movement is joining Yesh Atid.

Yair Shamir from Yisrael Beitenu won't run again saying that he can't identify with the parties leftward turn.

Aida Toma beat Nabila Espanioli 330-316, for the number 2 spot in Hadash.

Bassel Gatas will be number 3 for Balad again. Balad's list will be the same as last time.

Wasn't Issam Makhoul running for something in Hadash?

Nabila Espanioli is a Christian lady who was number 5 last time and just missed out on entering the Knesset.

Not for the first 3 spots, don't know about after that.

With Stern, Piron, and Lipman YA will be aiming hard for the religious light vote. identified as not very devout and more modern with centre-right defence views.

Makhoul indeed ran for leadership but left the race.

Ben Caspit, Maariv top columnist who is very anti-bibi and pro-Liberman hinted that with the falling results in polls for Liberman he might quit the race.

Did he drop out to make it a clean choice between a united Arab party and going it alone? Know which side he came down on?

Not sure why he left, I suspact that due to the low support he was going to get. As he is a Maki man more than Hadash I'm sure he's against a wide union and more for a small one with Ta'al

Dov khenin will be number 3 for Hadash.

So apparently the number 2 seat on the Hadash list is reserved for a woman and the number 3 seat is reserved for a Jew.

Are there any more seats reserved for Jews? I remember looking at their list last time and it looked like there was only maybe 2 other Jewish names besides Khenin and they were both in something like the 90s and 100s.

I suppose this electoral system for having a contest for each seat individually rules out the chance of surprise high up placement of Burg.

Although I'm guessing he gets a symbolic 120th spot.

Burg isn't running, if he gets a spot it won't be from any primaries and won't be realistic.

The 2nd spot was reserved for a Jew but they decided to move to the third to give the second to a womanץ
I looked at the list and saw 4 Jews till the 20th spot and 20 overall

Thanks for that. I was, of course, reading it translated from Hebrew by my browser. A lot of names just showed up as blocks. I only saw a a couple obvious Davids and Benjamins.

Lieberman has announced her won't join a coalition that includes Meretz, seeming swinging back to the right.

Bibi has announced he won't form a grand coalition with Labor.

These announcements are important in what they tell us about how the parties are trying to position themselves.

As actual binding pledges though, they are meaningless. Livni said she wouldn't join a Netanyahu government before the last election.

Final Hadash list:
1) Ayman Ouda
2) Aida Toma
3) Dov Khenin
4) Yusuf Jabbarin
5) Abdulla Abu Ma'aruf

Any of those Christians and/or non-Maki members?

I think Ouda is Christian by the last name and the fact he's from Haifa. About Toma I'm not sure, Jabbarin is a muslim. There was a desire to see a druze on the list again though so we might see one a bit lower down the list.

Edit: checked and Abu Ma'aruf is a Druze

Regarding the Maki members...it's a difficult question to answer. Barake for example was a maki member despite the fact his power base was outside of it and he overthrew the Maki chairman (Nafa'a). The organizational mess there is incredible.
I don't think Toma or Jabbarin are communists though

Hana Sweid was the only Christian before and he was also the only non-Maki member.

Looks like the list has gotten more diverse regardless.

As we haven't posted polls for the election itself in quite some time, and I was starting wondering how the race looked like nowadays, I'll just post the two latest ones, Panel/Maariv and TNS/Walla, don't know how these pollsters are rated.

Labor/Hatnuah 25-26
Likud 22-24
Jewish Home 17-18
Arabs (both aggregate them into one figure) 11-11
Yesh Atid 11-8
Kulanu 9-8
UTJ 7-8
Shas 6-7
Meretz 6-5
Yisrael Beitenu 6-5

I have a confession to make : I thought Jewish Home was the translation of Yisrael Beitenu... Hence a couple misunderstandings here and there. For my defence, Beitenu does mean "Our Home", and I thought Yisrael and Jewish would in fact be the same in Hebrew, why not. So I stand corrected. :)

I we go back a few polls, we see that Balad alone seldom makes it to the threshold, but they are often counted with UAL-Ta'al at around 5 seats. Hadash alone also gets around 5 or 6 seats. Could someone tell me what are the odds of these different possibilities of coalitions between the Arab lists now ?

And also, can someone elaborate a bit on Kulanu ? From what I quickly read on the wiki, seems like a moderate hero party if there ever was one.

There so many polls coming out that I don't bother listing them, but if you want to follow then here is a link for all the polls in one place: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/tcDrLL3rHDzhW54B8dzkLkg/htmlview#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/tcDrLL3rHDzhW54B8dzkLkg/htmlview#gid=0)

Livni will put journalist Ksenia Svetalova in the 21st spot on the joint list, in an attempt to appeal to Russians after none were elected in the primaries.

Israeli politics has a long tradition of personalist populist parties of a vaguely middle-of-the-road bent and with policies that look suspiciously like a list of platitudes; Kulanu is but the latest example.

The Jewish Home is unambiguously right-wing. It opposes a Palestinian state. The only internal inconsistencies are that some members want it to be a religious party and some members want it to be a theocratic party. The merely religious are dominant right now. Also, The Jewish Home home used to be called the National Religious Party, it's actually one of the oldest parties in Israel. As such, it actually has some organization and holds primaries like Labor and Likud.

Yisrael Beytenu (Our Home is Israel) is ideologically very ambiguous, although always leaning right. It used to oppose a Palestinian state now it is the main advocate of land transfer. It wants to annex settlements in the West Bank and give Arab parts of Israel to a potential Palestinian state. It's pretty much synonymous with its leader Avigdor Lieberman and thus doesn't have primaries,  he just picks the candidates himself. Unlike The Jewish Home, it is very secular, this has something to do with the fact that it's base is among Russians immigrants who were secularized under Communism. The party's name was supposed to evoke Yeltsin's party "Our Home is Russian" but it outlasted its namesake and people seem to forgot that bit of trivia entirely.

So Jewish Home: Religious, anti-Palestinian state, and an actual party. Yisrael Beytenu: Secular, convoluted "clever" position on a Palestinian state, main just one guy, also Russian. The Jewish Home is to the right of Likud. Yisrael Beytenu is simultaneously both to the left and right of Likud.

As to the Arab parties, you have to understand that they talk about merging every election campaign. They always agree in theory but can never agree about which party will get to lead the alliance, how the seats will be distributed. It was thought that the raising of the electoral threshold would force them to do it for serious this time but I was always skeptical. The threshold is still pretty damn low by most standards. The only party really threatened is Balad. UAL and Hadash should be safe. Maybe if the threshold was 5% and they were all threatened, then you would see a merger.

Kahlon was a Likud member and Minister of Communications. Under his tenure, he deregulated the cell phone market and caused service prices to drop considerably. Even though this was a (rare) success of neo-liberal/libertarian economics, the public viewed this as some sort of benevolent state action. Largely because all of Netanyahu's other capitalist policies have only led to more inequality. So even though Kahlon was on exactly the same page as Netanyahu ideologically, he weirdly got the reputation as being "to his left"/not hating working people/not being as much of a free market ideologue. Part of this, undoubtedly, is because Kahlon is from a working class Sephardic background. So that explain why people think Kahlon is special. It doesn't explain why he has gone along with that misconception despite being a generic Likudnik. I think the reason for that is probably just the media pushing him. They used to constantly do polls showing him in first or second place if he led his own party (Israeli media do stupid hypothetical polls all the time "to make things interesting).

YB doesn't really stand for much beyond MOAR MONIES for Russians and (of course) whatever incoherent nonsense Lieberman chooses to rant about on any particular week.

To be very simplistic

Yisrael Beytenu: MOAR MONIES for Russians.

Shas: MOAR MONIES for the ultra-Orthodox.

The Jewish Home: MOAR MONIES for West Bank settlers.

Apparently, only in Hebrew, not in Arabic. Is that true?

Meretz primaries will take place today. Raviv Drucker had an article out that eviscerated the anticipated list that would come out of it, saying that there were no new authoritative faces that could pull voters that way, and specifically brings up the case of Ben Reuven. http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.637639 (http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.637639)

Personally, I think he does have a point and that somehow the Meretz election structure should be revamped to accommodate outsiders. Maybe open it up to all the party members or reserve one spot in the top five to someone new? Would be interesting to know what hnv1 thinks (as well as how you'll be voting!)

The only real feedback from an actual Israeli is from the Israel fellow at my Hillel. He's center-left and voted for Yesh Atid last election, but he wants Issawi Frej to take the number 3 spot. He likes Zaki but is unsure whether his work as head of B'tselem will turn voters off.

I disagree with drucker on that open primaries are the right system, espcially for a small party. Open primaries allow an unpopular candidate among the base to add lots of people only for it and get elected. Also, in the power structure of Meretz as was see when there were open primaries (2003, 2007) its skews the results to the Kibbutz vote which is a minority among the general voters.

On attracting a "big" name I strongly disagree. Meretz never had big names dropped in (unless you consider 2009 as big) and considering the stable position in polls I don't think it should. I am also very strongly against ex-generals in politics, their net contribution is usually very low and their conduct in political life is rather lame considering the military habits. From the normative prespective I think it is unhealthy for a democracy that every general who leaves the army jumps into politics, Labour can do what they want but Meretz never saw the appeal in the military "language" and I'de like it to continue.

In case drucker forgot last time around we got 3 new names on the list so the system is fine.

My vote is going to Raz, Laski, Zandberg, Gilon, Svirsky, and others. Part for Villan and Bandel I see everyone as a decent candidate.

Yisrael Beytenu list:

1 Avigdor Lieberman
2 Orly Levy (daughter of moderate Sephardic Likudnik David Levy, her brother is also on the Likud list)
3 Sofa Landver (Immigrant Absorption Minister, MK for Labor before she switched to YB)
4 Ilan Shohat (Mayor of Safed)
5 Sharon Gal (journalist)
6 Hamad Amar (token Druze)
7 Robert Ilitov (current MK, Russian immigrant)
8 Oded Porer (party bureaucrat)
9 Yulia Melinovsky (Holon city council member)
10 Shira Mistrial (head of student union at Ariel University in the West Bank)

Further down the list won't matter as Beytenu is polling below 10.

Interesting to see the ethnic breakdown of the list, as the party has been getting less and less Russian overtime. Lieberman, Landver, Ilitov, and it's probably safe to say Melinovsky are all of Soviet origin. Levy is Sephardic, her dad is from Morocco. Amar, as I said, is Druze. Unsure about the other new people, Shohat, Gal, Porer, and Mistrail. Anyway, potentially less than half the top 10 are Russian.

Apparently Mofaz was offered the 20TH stop on the Labor list and he turned it down as insulting. He won't be joining the list at all now.

Amos Yadlin now sure to get the 11th spot. I guess Herzog was going to give it to him regardless.

JPost says that Herzog and Mofaz have actually not spoken in several weeks, and that Livni did not want Kadima to join the Zionist Center.

So...is it too late for Mofaz to be snapped up by some other list, or is he out? Running independently after barely crossing the 2% threshold in 2013, and having declined in polls since then, seems kinda hopeless, but it seems strange that no parties want anything to do with him.

EDIT: In their article on Ksenia Svetlova being given the 21st seat on the Labor-Hatnuah list, JPost noted that one of the two remaining Hatnuah slots is expected to be given to former MK Yoel Hasson -- is that just speculation or is there some truth to it?

That makes sense, he's the next highest person on the Hatnuah list after Livni and Peretz who hasn't retired. He was one death/resignation from getting into the Knesset.

It's a little disappointing if true though. Hasson has a firmly right-wing background, former leader of Betar. Not that I think he'll be a particular defection risk, just personally saddened as a leftist. Also, he's just dull.

I would much rather see a minority candidate from Hatnuah like Shlomo Molla or Majalli Wahabi.

Meretz list:

1) Zehava Galon
2) Ilan Gilon
3) Issawi Freij
4) Michal Rozin
5) Tamar Zandberg
6) Mossi Raz
7) Gaby Lasky

So all the incumbents except Horowitz in the first 5, followed by Raz who was an MK between 2000 and 2003. So unless Meretz get to 7 seats, there will be no new faces.

Where's Zandberg's husband?

Number 10

JPost says that Yadlin will be the Labor candidate for Defense Minister if they can keep the portfolio, but that he won't be seeking a seat in the Knesset. So it's still unclear who will get the 11th spot, leaving an outside opportunity for Mofaz.

Shas just released an excellent ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4PyeR1YsD8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4PyeR1YsD8)

Thank you for not insulting the Russians again...

Here's the Meretz list down to 13:
1) Zehava Galon
2) Ilan Gilon
3) Issawi Frej
4) Michal Rozin
5) Tamar Zandberg
6) Mossi Raz
7) Gabi Lasky
8) Avi Dabush
9) Avshalom Vilan
10) Uri Zaki
11) Revital Len Cohen
12) Nir Lahav
13) Itai Svirski

Overall a very left-wing list, even more so than last time. Both Raz and Laski are on the left end of the party, especially when it comes to human rights. They also managed to outdo Labor in terms of female representation (four of the first seven, compared to three of the top five).  Also fairly strong sephardi representation. And then of course there's the fact that Frej took the third spot, quite impressive for an Arab in a Zionist party.

Also, it seems that Kachlon's number 3, the Ethiopian journalist Tzago Malko, may not be able to run, as she didn't resign from her job in time.

The Arab parties have finally agreed on a united list (I haven't checked the spelling, I'm just guessing from a He:

1) Ayman Ouda (Hadash)
2) Massoud Ghanaim (RAAM)
3) Jamal Zahalka (Balad)
4) Ahmed Tibi (TAAL)
5) Ayida Tuma-Sliman (Hadash)
6) Abd Al-Hakim Haj-Yehieh (RAAM)
7) Henin Zouabi (Balad)
8 ) Dov Khenin (Hadash)
9) Taleb Abu-Arar (RAAM)
10) Yusuf Jabbarin (Haddash)
11) Bassel Ghatas (Balad)

From this point there are a bunch of rotations.

Any speculation on a name?

They haven't agreed on that yet.

Haaretz gives 15 slots

1. Aiman Ouda (Hadash)
2. Masud Ganaim (Ra'am)
3. Jamal Zahalka (Balad)
4. Ahmad Tibi (Ta'al)
5. Aida Tomeh Saliman (Hadash)
6. Abdel Hakim Haj Yahia  (Ra'am)
7. Haneen Zoabi (Balad)
8. Dov Henin (Hadash)
9. Taleb Abu Arar  (Ra'am)
10. Dr. Yussuf Jabareen (Hadash)
11. Basel Ghattas (Balad)
12. Reserved for Ta'al
13. Dr. Abdullah Abu Maaruf (Hadash)
14. Joumaa Azbarka (Balad)
15. Saeed Al-Horomi  (Ra'am)

A joint list might improve the turnout. Would 12-14 seats be out of reach?

So,  Hadash is pretty much guaranteed 4 and realistically may get 5. Balad should get 3, but might go up to 4 or down to 2.  Ra'am should get 3, with an outside chance for 4. And Ahmad Tibi is in - and, quite possibly, with a friend.

As I said, from place 12 there will be rotations, so it isn't exactly a full spot.

12) TAAL/RAAM
13) Hadash/Balad
14) Hadash/Balad

Which for anyone not familiar means that 12-15 will just resign after 2 years and be replaced by 16-19.

So, who is 16/19?

I checked and I think I understand what they did now.

12 will be TAAL, if they don't get 15, then he will resign after 2 years and number 15 from RAAM will be there. the names don't seem to be known yet.

Same thing between 13-14 with abu Maaruf in 13 from Hadash and Azberga in 14 from Balad.

15 is al Horomi and Azberga is from Balad.

Yeah, writing Hadash twice was a mistake, fixed

It is important to see how much Khenin can retain the Jewish vote.

Can't see Jews voting for the Islamic Movement. I'm guessing they leave to Meretz. Jewish Hadash voters account for like what...1/4th of a seat though?

Is this Arab alliance unprecedented, or at least how much of an effect could it have on the upcoming election ? And could someone throw in 3 or 4 lines about each of the 4 components ? I get what Hadash is, but I cannot really make up my mind on Raam, Taal and Balad.

Well, it depends. The parties are not merging. It is a marriage of convenience, forced by the electoral law changes. Hadash has a stronger representation on the list than Raam. And, of course, there is still Khenin - how he campaigns might make some difference.

Yes, it is unprecedented. Hadash has, in the past, run with Balad and with Taal, but never with both together and never with Raam.  Taal has run with each of the other three. But this is, indeed, new. And this would not have happened if the PR threshold had not been raised to 3.25%. Normally, each of the main three gets around 2.5% - a bit more if Taal joins this particular party. It is very rare for any one of them to cross 4%. So, at best, without a merger all would have been at risk. At the very least, the number of "Arab" parties had to be "rationalized" to 2.

Hadash - mostly Communists, still, at least in part, bicommunal. For them this merger is tough, as it further defines them as an "Arab party" - and there is still some Jewish hard core left. Furthermore, they are ideologically extremely inconsistent with Raam.

Balad - secular, fairly, I believe, urban, reasonably wealthy (definitely non-Communist) Arab nationalist party.

Taal - followers of the most popular secular Arab MK (Ahmad Tibi)

Raam - like Hadash it is a coalition, but whereas Hadash is Communist-dominated, Raam is dominated by the Islamic movement (with a strong Bedoine component). So, this is the opposite end of the political spectrum, as far as Arabic Israel is concerned.

To sum up, the 3.25% threshold has forced all non-Zionist forces in Israel to join in one list. Whereas as before their voter had a choice within the political spectrum: from Communists to Islamists - now there will be no choice. In addition, Jewish non-Zionists are left without a proper political home: even though Dov Khenin is still on the list and will remain an MK, he will be an MK for an unambiguously Arab list.

On the other hand, the 3.25% rule will really consolidate things. Previously, a not very ideologically well-defined Arab Israeli would have doubts whom to vote for. In addition, he would have to contend with calls for boycott of Israeli politics - the call that would be the easier to adhere to the more confused he were. No confusion now.

Polls are saying that most Arabs really wanted a joint list, and many would only vote if they had one. So, the Arab turnout should grow. Furthermore, with one list there will be no Arab vote "lost". In contrast, there will be some vote splintering among the Jewish parties. The 3.25% threshold is new, and some factions, at least, will not cross it, though they might come close. That would increase the number of the Jewish votes "lost".

Between the two effects the united Arab slate will earn, at least, a couple of extra seats. Whereas last time the three slates together had 11 MKs, this time 12-14 seems reasonable, and 15 is not, perhaps, out of question. These will be the MKs that will not be available to form a government (though some might be willing to support a leftist government from the outside). So, if they get 15 seats (unlikely, but not, perhaps, fully impossible), the government would need 61/105 Jewish party MKs to support it, which would likely require a broader coalition.

The 3.25% rule was, largely, designed to discomfit the Arabs (only the Arabic parties have been consistent in getting 2%-4% votes for a long time; the Jewish parties who get that vote share are either one-election wonders, or those on the upswing into/exit from the major politics). Instead it has produced further consolidation and further definition of the Arab voter as, first and foremost, a non-Jew.

So, seems Tibi agreed to the fourth spot (rather than the first) in exchange for the 12th/15th rotation for his second (whoever that is going to be). Which indicates that he, at least, reasonably expects 12 or more seats for the joint slate. The argument for the 13th/14th rotation suggests that there are serious hopes for more. 15 would be fun to watch, though probably will not happen :)

As I gather from his FB page the new leader Odeh says that "if the right wing calls it 'the national camp' and labour call themselves 'the zionist camp' we will couter with 'the democratic camp'"
So I guess there is a new name. I suspact a small trend of voters from them to Meretz nothing significant.

Seems it will be the United Democratic Party.

Reserved spots in the Zionist camp:
2: Livni
8: Peretz
11: Trachtenberg
16: Yoel Hasson
21: Ksenia Svetalova
24: Yael Cohen
25: Shlomo Mula

Yoel Hasson is a horrible person, can't stand that guy and not looking forward to his return.
Yael cohen used to be in the green movement, which didn't pass the threshold. Also was active in the anti road 6 movement, the road itself turned out to be very useful, so I'm glad that she lost on that subject.

Why don't you like Yoel Hasson?

He's someone who doesn't seem to have any real principles, he just goes to wherever it's most convenient for him. His idea of winning debates is to spout a lot of demagoguery, and try to do it while shouting the loudest over his opponent, and appear to be really outraged over everything. I strongly dislike hollow party hacks in general, but Hasson makes it worse by being obnoxious about it and constantly changing the party he is being hackish for.

Apparently when Trachtenberg was introduced in a campaign rally today, he was met with a chorus of boos. The 2011 protest people aren't forgetting things quickly.

more accurate: Shelly's people didn't like Herzog's pledge to make him treasury sec.

Yes but there is a reason not to want him as treasury minister.
Anyway, Herzog can't keep all of his promises even if he were to become PM unless he gets 40 seats at least, he promised defence to Yadlin, Treasury to Trachtenberg, he would have to give people seats from his party that actually went through a primary to keep them in line. for a party with less than 30 seats, that wouldn't leave enough offices for coalition partners to get over 60. Herzog's promises when it comes to ministers don't really mean much right now.

So, the Israeli media has kind of gone wacko with hypothetical merger possibilities. Ones included:

Likud-Bayit Yehudi: the reason they'd do this would be to be certain they'd get the largest number of seats forcing Rivlin to give them the nod. Bennett isn't hot on the idea though, and might ask for a pm rotation in that case.

Hamahane Hatzioni- Yesh Atid: If there's a Bibi/Bennett merger, these two parties would likely merge to boost their chances of being the largest party.

Kulanu-Yesh Atid: Kahlon already shot this down, but if his share of the votes keeps dropping, he may decide to change his mind (for funding purposes if nothing else).

Yachad-Otzma: Yishai with the Kahanists, in order for them to both get above the threshold. Yishai's Rabbis have been in contact with the other side, and negotiations may have started.

Yesh Atid announced that they will be announcing (::)) their list tomorrow.


But only the last one is more than a pipe dream, right? At least, with that one the articles I read sound like "reporting", while the others sound like "speculation".

Why is Kulanu dropping? It's actually been a very consistent trend from the start of the election.

Kulanu is dropping because they couldn't get any big names for their list.

That said, Yesh Atid didn't have many big names last time. Yesh Atid also dropped below 10 in most polls before the last election.

I could totally see Kulanu coming in a surprise second. All the frivolous people who voted for YA last time looking for a new home and deciding at the last minute.

He got Galant, Oren, and Azaria. Those three are pretty big right there.

Kulanu doesn't need big names, Kachlon is a big enough name by himself. unfortunately for him, he isn't charismatic, and isn't a good campaigner. He also doesn't have opinions on a lot of issues, and doesn't do a good job masking that like other politicians. They also don't seem to prepare the candidates for dealing with the media. I just saw an interview with Gallant where he was asked what Kachlon did as minister of welfare, and he answered that he doesn't know the details. That is just bad preparation.

Having said that, Kachlon himself is still popular and so is Cellular reform that he did. So there is always the potential to grow if the party will get its sh**t together.

Lapid's list was released:
1) Yair Lapid
2) Shai Piron
3) Yael German
4) Meir Cohen
5) Yaacov Peri
6) Ofer Shelah
7) Haim Yellin- new guy, former head of Eshkol Regional council
Cool Yoel Razvozov
9) Karin Elharar
10) Aliza Lavie
11) Mickey Levy
12) Elazar Stern- former Hatnuah MK
13) Pnina Tamano-Shata
14) Dov Lippman
15) Ruth Calderon

former Beitar Jerusalem football star Eli Ohana will join the Jewish Home in one of the reserved spots. Significant because Beitar has a very right wing fan base, traditionally connected with the Likud Which Bennet is now going for.

Is it slot 11 that he's getting? And everyone else is getting bumped down one slot (except Strook and Kalfa, who "can't" be bumped down)?

For the YA list, up to 8 looks very likely, 9-12 possible, and 13 down is doubtful. Three Yesh Atid MKs are not seeking reelection -- Adi Koll (who made a public announcement), but also Rina Frenkel and Shimon Solomon.

So, at this point...it seems like the lists are known, except for the identity of who Netanyahu intends to appoint to slots 11 and 23 in the Likud. That's the final mystery (unless some parties really do choose to suddenly unite over the last few days).

Likud is considering the horrid Jpost columnist Caroline Glick for #11.

Don't forget the Haredi parties btw- they've yet to release their lists.

And the Dichter-Hotovely saga is still ongoing.

Bennet getting fire from the base for adding Ohana (who supported the disengagement).

Eyal Ben Reuven in a sharp move after his candidancy in Meretz did not materialized had been granted the 24th spot in Labour by Livni.

Kalfa has already defected to Yishai's party.

Rather Historic event then! It's the first time for at least 50 years I think the JH (in its forms) will not have a Zvulun!

Two new polls

Channel 2

Panels/Knesset Channe

For those who don't know, Kalfa was a settler leader in Gaza, that's why a pro-disengagement candidate is so offensive to him.

Arab list will be called Wamab (Spark).

Also, according to Arabic Wikipedia, Ayman Odeh, the leader of the list and of Hadash is a Muslim, not a Christian as previously speculated.

Aida Touma-Sliman, the number 2 on the Hadash list and number 5 on Wamab list is from a Christian family though. I don't know if she's practicing though, she's a member of the Communist Party unlike the previous Hadash Christian Hana Sweid, who is an independent.

Livni has decided to replace Shlomo Molla on her list with Eyal Ben Reuven, who crossed over from Meretz, which means there may well be no Ethiopian immigrant in the next Knesset, since Tsega Melaku, who was given the 3rd spot in Kulanu, was apparently disqualified from running. (Molla, who was to be given slot 25 on the Zionist Camp, would have been a 50/50 shot to enter the Knesset). Not counting Melaku, the two likeliest candidates are now Pnina Tamano-Shata (13th for Yesh Atid; probably not, but possible) and Nagosa Avraham (27th for Likud; probably not, but possible). Molla reacted with very harsh words for Livni and an almost-but-not-quite endorsement of Kulanu.

In other news, Mofaz announced that he won't be seeking reelection in 2015, and that he's stepping down from the Kadima leadership. The new Kadima leader, a Druze named Akram Hasson who briefly served in the Knesset from 2012-2013, is apparently in negotiations with Kahlon about a joint list.

And, yeah, there was a great deal of drama in JH, with Eli Ohana being given a spot in the top 10 (I think he gets slot 10 on the JH list, so slot 12 on the joint list with Tkuma, but I'm not sure about this) and the reserved slot for woman being given to Anat Roth, bumping down Yehudit Shilat. There was a great deal of anger about this from certain quarters, and Zevulun Kalfa, who was 4th on the Tkuma list (18th on the overall list) resigned his spot; he will be replaced in the 18th spot (a reach, but not impossible) by Tkuma party director Nachi Eyal. It is rumored that Kalfa will join Yishai's list.

Slot 12 on the Wamab list, which was reserved for a member of Ta'al (so, someone picked by Ahmad Tibi) will go to human-rights lawyer Osama Sa'adi, who is also Ta'al's brother-in-law ::)

So Kadima is effectively a Druze vote bank now? Remarkable.

So officially Eyal Ben Reuven is a member of Hatnuah? From Meretz to Hatnuah...

Funnily enough, Kadima is apparently the first-ever majority-Jewish party with Knesset representation to be led by an Arab, even if that is right before its untimely doom.

...it's not really a Druze party of any kind, but putting Hasson in charge is very probably a gimmick to try to increase Druze support for the party. It might've worked with the old threshold, but I doubt they can get to 3.25% (though it seems Hasson may be negotiating with Kachlon; he might still be worth 1.5%-2% or so, which is not worthless).

The top four of the list (it goes on for a while, but everyone after #4 is hopelessly obscure and has no chance anyway):
1. Fmr MK Akram Hasson (2012-2013; Druze)
2. Fmr MK Doron Avital (2011-2013)
3. Fmr Givatayim Mayor Reuven Ben-Shahar
4. MK Yuval Zellner (2012-2013; 2014-present)


I think Ben-Reuven is more concerned with his political career than his ideological beliefs.

Mofaz didn't resign the Knesset though, did he? Is Hasson going to be an MK for like a month?

Kadima won a lot of Druze votes in the last election. Also Mofaz beat Livni because a lot of Arab and Druze votes. I believe that's why Sibboleth made that comment. There is a history with Kadima and the Druze.

No, I think Hasson will lead Mofaz and Zellner from outside the Knesset :P

And, yeah, there certainly is a history between Kadima and the Druze -- some of their best 2013 results were in Druze communities -- but it's still an exaggeration to call it a "Druze party".

Also, quote from Shaul Mofaz's not-running speech: "I am not an outstanding politician"

Sure; that's why I wrote 'vote bank' rather than 'party' ;D

Not the one to judge, but if Ben Reuven really wants a long career in politics, I'm not sure Livni's the one he should be going in with, considering some factors such as what happened to the last two big military men that wen with Livni, and indeed the person whose spot Ben Reuven just took.

I'm sure hnv1 has stronger thoughts than me though.

I don't really mind his departure, as I stated earlier I don't like eg-generals in politics and I especially don't like them in my party. Though it is a bit disrespectful as he was granted a national convention seat about a month ago, but that's them ex-generals they've got an ego bigger than their brain.
I doubt the Livni party will hold after this election, Peretz will probably slide back to Labour at one point and if Ben Reuven wants to continue in politics he will have to do so as well.

It will be interesting to see what he does as an MK (as he's in the 24th spot I doubt he becomes a minister), ex-generals usually fail miserably as MKs.

Odeh is of the Ahmadi sect, a very small muslim sect whose members reside in Haifa.

BTW fun fact: because Likud hadn't held interior elections for years until now, Yoel Hassson was still chairman of Young Likud branch up until 2-3 months ago! that's despite moving 3 parties by then

Like the Indian Ahmadis? Weird. Apparently there's only 2000 of them in Israel. Is he ethnically Indian?

Doubt it, Doesn't have Indian traits. I think they originally came from Syria but I'm not sure.

The Likud sagas are coming to an end. Bibi found two people to bring in number 11 will be Anat Berko, and number 23 will Limor Darash Samamian.

Hotovely beat Dichter by 110 vores in the recount and will be number 20, Dichter will be at 26.

There will be 5,881,696 people with the right to vote, up from 5,656,705 in the 2013 elections. That means a rise of 3.977%.

And Ohana has announced he'll be resigning his spot on the list. A major embarrassment for Bennett, this is.

Basically the entire party other than Bennet was against him.

Totally missed these post-Arab merger polls. 12 isn't a very big jump. It's only one more than they usually get. If they do that poorly, I can't imagine the alliance lasting long.

Kalfa already cancelled his resignation and will return to number 18.

Bibi reserves the 11th spot to former minister and son-of Benni Begin

Dani Dayan announces he's leaving JH because of Bennets dirty tricks with the party list

Channel 10 poll had Liberman on 4 yesterday, Karma will be a darling if she makes Liberman stay out because of the threshold he raised

Tali Pluskov, the mayor of Arad for Yisrael Beitenu, is joining Kulanu and will be number 6.

It looks like the Kahanists and Yishai have come to an agreement and Baruch Marzel will be number 4, but Chetboun will leave in protest.

UTJ submitted their list, which is basically the same as last time.

The alliance is not meant to last. It is a shotgun marriage, based on the new 3.25% threshold. If they went separately, every single one of them would be at risk of missing the threshold - and it would be a miracle if more than 2 passed it. So, without the alliance, they would not be getting even 10 seats between the four - possibly, none.

Politicians involved (with the possible exception of Ahmad Tibi) are not at all happy about having to ally. They were simply not given a choice.

It would be fun. Especially if he comes in at something like 3.2%, with some of his wasted vote electing an extra Arab :)

Aren't Arab-Israelis actually something like 20% of the population of Israel? I realize that some of them vote for "Zionist parties" such as Meretz or Labour etc... but I think the vast majority of those who do vote vote for Arab parties meaning that if Arab-Israelis actually voted at the same rate as Jewish-Israelis - the Arab Alliance party would likely be getting something like 20 seats - which would have HUGE implications for government formation in Israel.

Any thoughts?

Well, yes, Arabs do not vote at the same rates as the Jews. Also, many Arabs do vote for Zionist parties. Also, "Arabs" here includes the Druze and the like, who vote for all sorts of parties. On the other hand, a few Jews vote for Hadash - though, at this point, far too few.

It would be interesting to see if the Arab turnout goes up - and if the pollsters would be able to take account of it beforehand.

And, yes, 20 MKs on the Arab slate would make government formation in Israel interesting.

The number of Arabs who still vote for Meretz and Labor would maybe equal one seat in the Knesset between them.

It's mostly that Arabs just don't vote.

So in other words if Arab-Israelis would just get their act together and start voting en masse - they could prevent a monstrosity like Netanyahu from ever being able to form a government again. It could be like the impact that Black and Latino voters now have on American presidential politics!

I had no idea at all that there were any Ahmadi in Israel.


I think it's at least equally likely that mass Arab participation in the electoral process would lead to a further rightward shift in the Jewish vote.

20 seats for arab parties will force one of the following:
- Forced coalition between Labour-Likud with the arabs, Meretz, and extreme right in constant opposition. Likely
- Force Labour to consider an historic reach for them as partners (unlikely with current Labour politics and the current moode of Israeli public this government will be highly opposed). less likely
- narrow right wing governments with growing international pressure. Likely

Either way I think the right did not really think through the whole new threshold scheme and this election will have a ripple effect that is going to alter the slumbered political formation we had since the 70s of Jewish right-left divide.

I think if the Arabs got 20, Labor probably would ally with them but it would cost them votes in the next election. It would take them several cycles to recover. In the meantime, the Arabs would stand a good chance of coming in second, which would be pretty chaotic.

Arabs make up 20.7% of the population, and if a party got that many votes it would get about 27 seats, however:

1) 14% of those Arabs live in east Jerusalem, and almost none of them have citizenship so they can't vote.
2) 9% of those Arabs are Druze, a big majority of whom vote for Zionist parties.
3) A larger percent of Arabs are under the age of 18 and can't vote.
4) A minority of the rest of the Arabs vote for Zionist parties Labour, Meretz, Shas, Likud, in some Arab localities these parties get a significant number of votes.
5) The percent of Arabs who vote at all is lower, in the last elections it was 57% compared to 67% overall.

The Last day for registration is very eventful:

Update: Kalfa tried to return but was refused, and will be replace with the next place in Tkuma, Nachi Eyal.


Update: Chetboun is back in number 2. Both him and Marzel are on the list.

Also, Nissim Zeev was kicked out of the Shas list, even though he was promised that he was in if he didn't join Yishai.

Bad news for the joint list (Arab). Taleb Al Sana, a former MK for RAAM, will lead his own list that will compete with them for Arab votes. He won't pass the threshold but all the votes he gets will be instead of the joint list.

He did this last time, ended up returning to Raam-Taal.

It seems that Bibi gave slot 11 to Benny Begin. A lot of people turned him down.

Bennet moved Anat Rot up to number 15 on the JH list, Rot was formerly in the Labour party and Peace Now (and was an advisor to Mitzna) before changing her politics.

It's not the same, last time he threatened to split but ended up being in the fifth spot (they got 4). This time the lists have already been submitted, and The Joint list has given one in without him, and he has given in his own list. At most he could theoretically drop out, but he can't be put on the Joint List in any case, so he will probably continue his run.

Does he have any independent support? Who would be voting for him?

Well, the question is, if he has a reliable personal vote or not. There will be a strong communal pressure to ignore him otherwise.

He'll probably get some Bedouin votes, not much otherwise. People who don't like UAL will probably either vote Zionist Camp/Meretz or stay home.

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.

There are two groups that oppose going to the temple mount for different reasons.
The first is the "moderate" side that opposes going to the temple mount because they don't want to anger the Arabs and think going there will cause riots, or simply the fact that the kind of Jews who go to the temple mount are eople whom the moderate side is automatically against everything they do.

The second is a religious view that it is religiously prohibited for Jews to go to the temple mount. This is the problem in the negotiations, since Chetboun and and his Rabbi Tau are strongly supportive of this view.

I personally agree with the "extremist" side for the same reason you gave despite being secular and having no desire to pray anywhere, much less go to the temple mount to do it.

I assume the religious objection is something like, Jews shouldn't pray there until the Third Temple is built?

The seculars try to avoid the Temple Mount issue, the Haredim strongly oppose it, the Dati Leumi generally support it.

The genesis of Haredi opposition is a decision by Rav Yosef that since no one knows where the Holy of Holies once stood, one should not risk the chance of accidentally stepping in that spot. Yishai's mentor/chaperone Rav Mazuz helped Yosef formulate that decision.

The reason that the seculars oppose it is that all hell might break loose in the Arab Sector/West Bank. The Second Intifada was started when Ariel Sharon made his own pilgrimage to the Mount. Unless you're a third temple fanatic (of which there are a few- Yehuda Glick is an example), you have no reason to support it otherwise.

Right now there is a compromise where Jews can visit the Mount, but can only pray silently. Any attempt to expel the Waqf could lead to war with the Jordanians.

That makes sense. I know Yishai is an establishment guy but I had a hard time believing he would oppose people going to the Temple Mount for the sake of the Arabs.

The problem was more with Chetboun than with Yishai though this seems to be because Yishai is more realistic and realised that he needed the votes, while Chetboun is probably delusional and thought that they are easily passing the threshold anyway and don't need the Kahanists

Wait, does Chetboun also oppose the Temple Mount shenanigans?

Chetboun follows Rabbi Tau who is against going to the temple mount. Rabbi Tau believes that adhering to state laws is a religious virtue of itself which puts him very much against kahannists and is the reason why he is now refusing to support the new party that has Marzel in it.

So in the spirit of this 'freedom' I'm allowed to walk into any church in America and declare my right to pray there?

Tomer Perisco (Jewish religion scholar) already wrote a great essay about this, they want to pray there as a nationalistic sign of sovereignty, religious freedom has nothing to do with it.

Well if it's a church that was built on top of a synagogue...

It should be like the Hagia Sophia.

"on top of a synagogue"...built on top of ruins soe 600 years later. There is no religious reason to pray there and whoever wants to pray has that wall of Herod's rocks. Let us not forger that the goal of those fanatics is to destroy the muslim temples and rebuild the Jewish ones there, I don't see any reason to encourage them.

Last few polls looks like Netanyahu has regained some lost ground. Hezbollah could've helped. Sigh...

Interestingly enough it looks like leakage from Jewish Home; connected to recent tehdrama, or just the usual ups and downs of polling in a country where that will never be easy?

The last few days were bad for Jewish home, lots of infighting and a weak looking Bennet, combined with a viable alternative to its right. It will be very hard to get back to the 17-18 seats they were gettibg earlier on.

Is there any tactical voting in Israel i.e. Likud voters voting for Yishai so that they can pass the threshold?!

This is a sort of a question, that can only be speculated on. Israel used to have one of the lowest electoral thresholds anywhere - until some 20 years ago it was 1%. Obviously, with the threshold so low, nobody cared about tactical voting. They raised it gradually, first to 1.5%, then to 2%. Suddenly, this time it jumps to 3.25%. How this will work out, nobody knows. So far, there is obvious tactical coalition formation (at least, on the Arab side). The rest... New electoral systems take time to get adjusted to.

So the top 4 spots on the Yishai/Yachad/HaAm Itanu/Otzma Yehudit list are:

1 Eli Yishai (MK, former Shas)
2 Yoni Chetboun (MK, former Jewish Home)
3 Michael Ayash (appears to be a confidant of Yishai)
4 Baruch Marzel (Otzma Yehudit, former Kach)

Looks like Otzma didn't get much out of this deal since it's unlikely this list will win 4 seats. Also, members of Likud would be stupid to tactically vote for this list since if it somehow did win 4 seats, Netanyahu wouldn't be able to form a coalition with them because of Marzel's presence.

So is Ben-Ari even supporting this list?

The threshold is basically 4 seats, so if they don'y get 4 they will get 0 anyway.


It was already agreed that the moment the elections are over the two will become separate and Marzel will become his own faction. Presumably Yishai would enter the coalition with Bibi and Mazel will remain in opposition.


Of course, Ben-Ari and Marzel are essentially the same. Originally Marzel was the one that was supposed to be in the Knesset, but the other members of the National Union objected because they considered him too extreme, which led to Ben-Ari's placement. This time The complaint was that Ben-Ari goes to the temple mount, so he was replaced with Marzel who doesn't go there (but supports the right of others to do so). These two don't do any political moves separately from the other, so if Marzel is there you can be sure that Ben-Ari supports it.

Are you sure about the 4 seats thing? I thought I read somewhere it was 3.

It's 3.25%, which is technically 3.9 seats in theory. But that is in a case where all votes go to parties that get over the threshold. since that won't be the case it will be a little higher than 3.9 seats. So the odds of getting in with just 3 seats is minuscule.

What ended up happening with the soccer guy's spot on the Jewish Home list? Did they just bump everyone up a space?

Yes

Will Otzma Yehudit add votes to the list or will people be frightened by its presence?!

They are not really going for any sector that will be frightened by it. They're going for the fringe of the Haredi Sephardi society (poor and right wing), the right wing Hassidis (Habad, and etc.), and those national-religious who view Bennet as too moderate and not religious enough.

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

Other fun irrelevancies:

The number 2 on Taleb el-Sana's Arab List is former MK Muhamad Kanan. Kanan was a member of United Arab List who left to establish the Arab National Party, which only made the ballot in one election where it dropped out and endorsed Balad before voting day. He was also involved in the attempt to create an "Arab Center Party" which hoped to draft Labor MK Raleb Majadele as its leader. When Majadele declined, the Arab Center Party also folded into Balad.

I don't think there's anyone else remotely well known on his list.

I don't know this, but I always assumed that the law was only a problem if the two sides don't agree. If both sides agree would it still be a problem?

Not sure about mutual consent I checked the laws and there's nothing about it. According to the current law (Amend. 39 2012) you need a third of the faction to have it done. They could do a legal trick by splitting 2-2 and then the other half will re-split and leave Marzel alone

Couldn't the majority split on its own, leaving Marzel alone?

Or couldn't they just split in reality but not officially?

How many do you need to establish an official parliamentary group in the Knesset ?

One third if you're breaking away. I don't think there's any limit in terms of parties that get elected but as danny said, you can no longer elect less than 4 people at a time. There have been one man groups in the past.

One is enough, so Marzel should be fine becoming one. It happened recently already when Amsalem left Shas and became a faction of his own.

Actually yeah, I think the one third thing is to get funding. Marzel could be his own group but he wouldn't get any government funds next next election.

Technically the threshold is only for the percent of the vote and there is no law on how many have to be elected. if you only put one person on the list only he can be elected. This happened once when Platto Sharon's party got enough votes for two seats, but since the party only submitted himself on the list only he was elected, and the rest of the votes were wasted.

Jeremy's Knesset Insider took an average of all the polls of the past week (though he added a disclaimer saying there were significant differences in polls from before and after the Eli Ohana saga, which was midweek, so to some extent the electorate has "already moved on"), and came up with (rounding to the nearest whole number):

Zionist Union 25
Likud 24
Jewish Home 15
Wamab 12
Yesh Atid 9
Kulanu 8
United Torah Judaism 7
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 5
Meretz 5
Ha'am Itanu 3

Ha'am Itanu averages 3 seats in polling, but they also average a popular vote figure below the threshold (though most were polls were before the merger with Otzma, so they may be above the threshold by now). Removing them would give a seat to the three parties closest to a seat -- Likud, Yesh Atid, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Like so:

Zionist Union 25
Likud 25
Jewish Home 15
Wamab 12
Yesh Atid 10
Kulanu 8
United Torah Judaism 7
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 6
Meretz 5

...which seems to be, basically, where we stood about Thursday morning, and still a fairly good approximation of where we stand now.

Thanks for this, Vosem. Knessetjeremy is truly a lifesaver for addicts of Israeli politics abroad ;)

I guess (= hope) that Yachad-Otzma will reach the threshold in this week's polls. I'd hate to see so many right-wing votes spilled, votes that are probably even crucial for the formation of a coalition.

Poster ads for Yachad are running on a lot of buses in Jerusalem, but it seems like some people (Shas/Deri supporters?) didn't like that so much - most of these ads are partly ripped off the buses.

The Arab party is actually just called the Joint List. Wamab is their two letter abbreviation that will appear on the ballot.

Also, at the last minute, Kadima decided not to file their list.

Because their second MP, Akram Hasson, joined Kulanu.

Did he get a spot on the list? He didn't get a realistic one.

Jeremy says spot #12. Probably still more realistic than Kadima spot #1.

In case people haven't seen this, there are virtually daily polling on the Israeli election.  The polls are, for the most party, surprisingly consistent as well:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Israeli_legislative_election,_2015

12, so indeed, not realistic. But Kadima would not have gotten in as well, so no big loss.

Oh wow, 12 isn't so bad. Kulanu is definitely the kind of party I could see indecisive Moderate Heroes breaking for at the last minute.

According to this:

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Bayit-Yehudi-primary-could-be-postponed-over-transparency-complaints-387643

Akram Hasoon endorsed a Druze candidate in the Jewish Home primary. Just a thing.

Very interesting. Ah well. Welcome to Israeli politics... And the Jewish Home guy didn't get a realistic spot anyway.

That's just normal Druze clientalistic politics.

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

On topic: in both the Dialog and the Panel poll Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma reached the threshold, and Likud outpolled the "Zionist" Union both times.

I expect a Likud surge after Bibi's speech for the Congress. Many Israelis will agree with what he'll say, even if they're not real Bibi fans.

Well, including a Nazi in the list would have an effect on one's reputation, wouldn't it?

Andrés Manuel López Obrador joined Yishai's party?

:) Good one :)

But, then, let me go on being terminolgical Nazi :) AMLO may be a wannabe Duce, and a national socialist, but he is too Latin to use the two-sylable word :)

Well, factually it's correct. I'll agree that it doesn't make much sense to single them out, considering parties like Balad, Ra'am, and Shas are also running.

I think you are confusing Balad and Likud :)

No, it's not. Islam is not a race.

Another poll by Panel today:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [18] Likud
22 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

69 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Are you stupid?

Going beyond Yishai's comments about African immigrants (including his hilarious "white man" comment), I can tell you based on the experiences of a friend of mine that Marzel is literally more racist/fascist than Kahane.

Based on the experiences of a friend of yours. Oh wow. That must definitely be true! *yawn* Not impressed by your boohoo, sorry.

Pause for reflection: Kach was banned for being racist
Not all Palestinians are Muslim
I'd mention the awful things marzel has said but I'd feel dirty writing them.

So now the invented "Palestinian" people has even become a "race"? Inventing definitions with lefties never became so original! And getting called a racist by people who would vote for Balad, like "Malaspinagold", would be an honor for me.

Now let's move back to a far more interesting topic: the Israeli elections.

I can see the smirk on your face as you wrote that.

Let's try to keep this thread as calm and reasonable as possible. If this means not commenting on certain matters, then do not comment on those matters. Thanks.

In the same way that the equally invented "Jewish" people did. As a racist yourself, you would have first-hand experience in how this happens.

The English word "racism" is frequently and commonly used to refer beliefs involving discrimination and inferiority/superiority among ethnic groups in addition to races. There is no Jewish (or Israeli) race (though both are ethnic groups, of which the one is part of the other), just as there is no Palestinian (or Arab) race (though both are ethnic groups, of which one is part of the other).

As for racism among parties running in the Israeli election of 2015, there are several groups that probably "deserve" banning under the 1988 law (which bans not only racism, but also the denial of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state). But none will be. The law of 1988 was originally passed in order to ban not one but two parties: Kach, which was banned for being racist, and the Progressive List for Peace, which was to be banned for denying that Israel is a Jewish state (and which thankfully has since fallen apart). This was very, very controversial, and the Supreme Court's decision to uphold the ban on Kach while striking down the ban on the PLP was also. Since then, in order to maintain basically the image of the Supreme Court as a neutral arbiter in Israeli politics, no bans have ever been upheld (except the ban on Kach itself, and on a descendant party literally named after Kahane), which has allowed racists and anti-Zionists, including literal Kahanists like Michael Ben-Ari (and, unfortunately, probably soon Baruch Marzel) and Syrian fifth columnists like Azmi Bishara and the rest of his party, to infiltrate the Knesset.

Lol! Still don't care about Israel haters and Jew bashers calling me a racist, only makes me smile, so thanks for that.

And now I feel we should listen to this wise man, because it would be a shame if this thread would become only a place for fighting.

I am Jewish. You are racist. Please stop.

Cool it.

A rule of the internet with few exceptions: if the defense against a charge of racism is merely that the targeted group is not a "race", then the charge of racism is correct.

You ARE an idiot (or more likely a sock). I'm a Meretz supporter, as is clearly evident by my previous contributions to this thread.
And for the record, my friend also happened to be at the guy's Hebron house for Shabbat when he heard the stuff.

Seriously, who's sock are you? Tell us, and then banish yourself forever please.

Also this.

I happen to be Jewish. Which only makes me hate Jewish racists more.

Pretty hard to stay cool here :) It is the old intra-tribal warfare :)

So, a fairly bizarre episode has come into light the previous few days:
An NGO trying to kick out Netanyahu hired Obama's field director from 2012, Jeremy Bird, to do a GOTV effort. Bibi, Bennett, and company have latched onto this, claiming that this is all on Obama's orders, that Zionist Union/Meretz are awash with foreign money, that Bird is working directly with these groups, etc. One guy's even trying to disqualify Meretz/ZU from the election altogether.

This is especially hypocritical considering that Bibi's own campaign director is a Republican strategist himself.

Also, I'm fairly sure this DavidB nut is not from the tribe. It's more likely that he's actually Geert Wilders.

No one here was Jew bashing stop throwing around such terms carelessly (and I'm a right wing Israeli Jew).

As for the invented Palestinian people, it may be true that the existence of a self defined people calling themselves Palestinian is a relatively recent phenomenon, but that is true for a lot people, and isn't very important anyway right now.