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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: ElectionAtlas on February 02, 2015, 09:29:30 PM



Title: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: ElectionAtlas on February 02, 2015, 09:29:30 PM
The 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active. (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2015/pred.php)


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Flake on February 02, 2015, 11:53:06 PM
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Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: solarstorm on February 15, 2015, 09:41:58 AM
Why does everybody think that the Democrats will be able to defend Kentucky.
If Grimes hadn't pussed out, I'd definitely say 'yes'.
But Conway? Please... He's way too liberal for that state, he'd even lose against Bevin.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 15, 2015, 11:43:47 AM
Grmes didnt know what political party she belonged to and failed to recognize Obama as president. Conway is much better than that and all the polls have shown it a tossup against Cromer and Lean D agsinst Bevin.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: LeBron on February 23, 2015, 12:28:56 AM
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Same as Flo's, except I have Governor Bryant getting >60% of the vote instead of 50%.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on March 13, 2015, 01:25:02 AM
Republicans take Kentucky and hold the rest


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 13, 2015, 06:20:55 PM
That's. why I want Mitch Landrieu to run, Dems have a better chance of winning at least one of these, than not.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: solarstorm on April 22, 2015, 03:33:01 PM
Why does the Oregon gubernatorial special election take place next year and not this year?


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Sumner 1868 on April 22, 2015, 04:35:08 PM
Why does the Oregon gubernatorial special election take place next year and not this year?

To coincide with the presidential race.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: solarstorm on April 23, 2015, 02:02:07 PM
Why does the Oregon gubernatorial special election take place next year and not this year?

To coincide with the presidential race.

I'd guess every state has its own laws about when to hold special elections.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: ElectionsGuy on May 16, 2015, 04:41:09 PM
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2015/pred.php?action=indpred&id=82

Yes, I have Kentucky as Lean R. I'm sticking by that, as I think Conway will implode like he did with Rand Paul 5 years ago.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: dudeabides on August 04, 2015, 12:54:22 PM
Bevin is a wacko, Conway should win narrowly.

As a Republican, however, if I lived in Kentucky in 2010, I'd have supported him for U.S. Senate over Rand Paul, and I'd be doing so again over Bevin because Bevin is crazy.

Grimes is hot (just thought I'd put that out there since we are talking about Kentucky)


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Flake on September 29, 2015, 09:33:30 AM
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Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Ebsy on September 29, 2015, 10:40:37 PM
I agree, Louisiana looks to be a Democratic pickup at this point. Vitter will be crying like a baby on runoff night.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 10, 2015, 09:58:18 PM
1 month to go

34% Edwards
28% Vitter
18% Dardenne
15% Angelle
5% Other

52% Vitter
48% Edwards

49% Bevin
47% Conway

62% Bryant
37% Gray

KY: Toss-Up
LA: Lean R
MS: Safe R


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 11, 2015, 11:16:18 AM
My prediction

Conway 51/49

Runoff in La

MS Bryany will win almost 70 percent

MS Safe
LA tossup
KY LD


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: bobloblaw on October 14, 2015, 09:13:12 PM
My prediction

Conway 51/49

Runoff in La

MS Bryany will win almost 70 percent

MS Safe
LA tossup
KY LD

There is only one Dem running in LA and he cant break 40%.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 15, 2015, 01:06:08 AM
Edwards is leading in all the polls.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2015, 06:09:21 AM
Dave, should we predict the jungle primary result in LA, or the runoff result ?


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 01, 2015, 09:25:42 PM
MS Gov

Bryant: 62%
Gray: 36%
O'Hara: 2%

MS AG

Hood: 53%
Hurst: 47%

Everthing else by Bryant-like margins.

All Kentucky Predictions Here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222155.msg4783889#msg4783889)


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 19, 2015, 07:00:14 AM
Final Predictions

Governor: Lean D
Lt Governor: Safe R
AG: Safe R

Edwards: 53%
Vitter: 47%

Nungesser: 57%
Holden: 43%

Landry: 55%
Caldwell: 45%

Edwards is above 50 in most polls, Vitter below 40 in most too. There would have to be something dramatic to turn it around. I'm predicting a last minute massive boost for Vitter, but that still doesn't get him to 50. So, looks like Edwards is the next governor, and D's make up for their loss in KY.


Title: Re: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on December 18, 2015, 02:47:09 AM
That KY gov race blew alot of users scores. I hope 2016 will be better, eventhough alot of users have it like 2012, which it wont be.