Talk Elections

Background Information:

Presidencies since 2016:

Hillary Clinton: 2017-2021 (D-NY)
Scott Walker: 2021-2029 (R-WI)
Patrick Murphy: 2029-2037 (D-FL)

Senate since 2016:

2017-2023: Republican
2023-2031: Democratic
2031-2033: Republican
2033-2035: Democratic
2035-2037: Republican

House since 2016:

2017-2027: Republican
2027-2031: Democratic
2031-2037: Republican

Racial Makeup of America:

49% Non-Hispanic White
14% Non-Hispanic Black
9% Asian
2% Native American
2% Other

26% Hispanic of any race

Religious Makeup of America:

69% Christian
-   44% Protestant
-   25% Catholic
25% Unaffiliated
2% Jewish
4% Other

Income and Education in America:

Average Household Income: $61,000

$0-40,000: 30%
$40,000 - $90,000: 45%
$90,000 and higher: 25%

High School or less: 12%
Some College: 22%
College Graduate: 45%
Postgraduates: 21%

Election Night!

Chris Hayes: Good evening America on this election night 2036. I’m Chris Hayes, you’re watching MSNBC on November 4th, 2036. I’m here with my colleagues Rachel Maddow, Krystal Ball, Steve Kornacki, and Ari Melber. It has been a very long campaign, and a very interesting one at that. Historians are calling this one of the most interesting presidential elections in a century. With that, tonight is expected to have the highest turnout we’ve seen in a long time. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona is facing off against the libertarian firebrand Governor Justin Amash of Michigan. President Murphy has been campaigning for Senator Gallego actively in the battleground states throughout the last half of the year. Gallego would be the first Hispanic president of the United States, Amash would be the first Arab-American president of the United States. Both would make history.

Gallego is running on a number of progressive reforms, such as expansion of entitlements and more funding to social security, which critics are calling a bankrupt scheme that is failing. Interestingly, he is also running on abolishing the Electoral College, which is the first time a candidate has brought up that issue. Of course, the Electoral College is still active for this election. He is also running on getting money out of politics once and for all, calling for public funding of elections. Governor Amash, on the other hand, is running on reducing the size of government, abolishing several departments and agencies, cutting spending, but also reducing intervention overseas.

Ruben Gallego won the Democratic primaries fairly easily, only having a few Democratic challengers. Among them, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Jared Polis of Ohio, and Jason Carter of Georgia. He got just over 50% of the primary vote while the others got 10-20%.

Justin Amash, on the other hand, faced a tough run from the establishment Republicans, however in a Republican primary that is more war-weary from the intervention in Saudi Arabia under Murphy’s watch, Amash was the go to guy. He ended up barely making it out, others that ran against him include Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Mia Love of Utah, and Matt Bevin of Kentucky. Cotton was especially critical of Amash’s foreign policy, calling him ‘the weakest candidate Republicans have ever put up’. Nationally he got about 32% of the vote, with the others scattered just below that mark.

 - - - Dialogue between commentators - - -

Maddow: Coming up, the first polls close in Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Don’t miss them. This is MSNBC.

Pretty interesting so far. Who are the Vice Presidential candidates?

I should've mentioned that. Seth Moulton for the Democrats and George P Bush for the Republicans.

Can't wait!

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC on election night 2036. It is 7:00 Eastern Standard Time and the polls have closed in 6 states. We have projections and characterizations coming to you right now.

Virginia

With only 2% in it is too early to call in the state of Virginia, but so far the numbers and predictions look good for Gallego. The state has not gone Republican since 2020. 15 electoral votes at stake here.

2% in

Amash: 59%
Gallego: 38%

Kentucky

The solidly Republican state of Kentucky is in the bag for Amash, as of NBC projections. 7 electoral votes for Governor Amash.

22% in

✔Amash: 62%
  Gallego: 35%

North Carolina

It is too close to call in the state of North Carolina, President Murphy did win this state both times but this state has always been very competitive. 17 electoral votes at risk, the Republicans are counting on this.  

4% in

53% Gallego
45% Amash

Georgia

In the state of Georgia, it is also too close to call with its 18 electoral votes. Georgia has been trending Democratic over the last 30 years and it is notable that the Republican grip is weakening, although both of the candidates have campaigned hard here.

1% in

Amash: 65%
Gallego: 34%

South Carolina

2% in

In South Carolina, Amash is a likely victor here but its still too early to call. Some democratic strategests say its in play but the majority of estimates say Amash has the better chance. A good 10 electoral vote prize here.

Gallego: 59%
Amash: 40%

Indiana

Finally, in Indiana, Amash is the projected winner for this state which has been pretty Republican for most of its history. That is 10 electoral votes for Mr. Amash

2% in

✔Amash: 59%
  Gallego: 37%

()

Amash: 17
Gallego: 0
Not Decided: 60

That wraps up our 7 PM Eastern Time Projections. We will get back to some of those states that are too close and too early later once we have more information.

Puerto Rico?

Hayes: Those were some interesting feedback so far, even if little is known. The key battlegrounds this cycle seem to be Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Illinois, New Hampshire, and countless others. There are some that say even Texas is a battleground. But one of the more important things coming out of the election tonight will be how groups voted. NBC has early exit poll data that could spell hints to tonight’s results. For that we go to our friend Ari Melber.

Melber: Thank you, Chris. The first information we have is the President’s approval ratings. As of tonight, 42% approve while 56% disapprove and 2% weren’t sure. That doesn’t spell well for Gallego, but the last poll heading into tonight had him ahead by just one point though, so he’s not out of the game by any means.

Approve – 83% Gallego, 16% Amash
Dissaprove – 75% Amash, 23% Gallego
Not sure – 56% Gallego, 43% Amash

When asked about the state of the economy, only 13% said excellent, to 29% that said good, 35% that said bad, and 23% that said terrible.

Excellent – 88% Gallego, 11% Amash
Good – 67% Gallego, 31% Amash
Bad – 52% Amash, 46% Gallego
Terrible – 93% Amash, 6% Gallego

When asked about foreign intervention, 69% of Americans said they wanted less military intervention abroad compared to just 29% who wanted more. This is an especially interesting issue as both candidates said they would pull back troops from the Middle East.

More intervention – 62% Amash, 37% Gallego
Less Intervention – 55% Gallego, 43% Amash
Not sure – 70% Amash, 29% Gallego

When it comes to government, more people are interested in keeping the welfare state. Only 32% of Americans favor cutting social programs while 68% favor keeping them.

Cut social programs – 94% Amash, 4% Gallego
Keep social programs – 71% Gallego, 28% Amash

However, when asked whether they want a more active government in personal and economic spheres, 56% said they want less government involvement while 43% said they wanted more.

More active government – 87% Gallego, 11% Amash
Less active government – 79% Amash, 20% Gallego

We’ll be back with more data, specifically demographics, at a later period. Back to you Chris.

Hasn't become a state and there's no way I can "create" it on the EV map.

Save the GOP primary map to your computer and make it in MS Paint.

Democratic Primary:

()

Ruben Gallego - Red: 2,470 Delegates
Jason Carter - Blue: 546 Delegates
Martin Heinrich - Orange: 123 Delegates
Jared Polis - Purple: 119 Delegates
Other/Unallocated: 401 Delegates

National Primary Vote

Gallego - 51.4%
Carter - 19.7%
Heinrich - 13.3%
Polis - 12.4%
Others - 3.2%

Republican Primary:

()

Justin Amash - Yellow: 886 Delegates
Tom Cotton - Orange: 842 Delegates
Mia Love - Purple: 397 Delegates
Matt Bevin - Red: 164 Delegates
Others/Unallocated: 344 Delegates

National Primary Vote

Amash - 31.8%
Cotton - 29.9%
Love - 20.1%
Bevin - 7.7%
Others - 10.5%

Keep up the great work!

Hayes: Alright, thank you Ari. So with all that said, the country based on those statistics is in a an anti-incumbent mood, but yet the race is neck and neck. Why is that?

Maddow: I think its because you have this guy on the Republican side that many conservatives have a hard time getting under. Granted, Governor Amash did pick Texas Governor [George P.] Bush to balance out his libertarianism with more mainstream conservative ideas, but it was only appeasement because he absolutely needed voters for the ticket. When Tom Cotton didn't even say if he would vote for him or not, there's an issue with some in the base.  You also have a very progressive Democratic nominee for the first time in decades, and voters in this country like progressive ideas. When you go to the precise issues Americans support the progressive agenda, despite all the claims its not true. That's why in the exit polls we just showed Americans want to keep social security despite wanting to lessen the size of government, a much vaguer question.

Ball: That's why this election is so important. I think the nomination of Amash really is a turning point in Republican Party, just as Goldwater was 70 years ago. It shows that the Republican voters are willing to buck the establishment every once in a while. And, in the Democratic side, a decently progressive candidate, probably one of the most since Barack Obama. You'd think this would cause for massive polarization and voters feeling left out, but the turnout is the highest in thirty years. It's amazing.

(other non-important dialogue by commentators continues)

Interesting. What happened to West Virginia? Did a lot of people move out?

The state's economy gets worse and it passes Mississippi for poorest state in America. Also, yes, population declines to about 1.5 Million. Of course, just playing around, I don't expect that to happen for real, but West Virginia's decline looks pretty bad as of now.

Maddow: Its 7:30 PM on the east coast, and polls closed in two states, West Virginia and Ohio. One very important, one not so much.

West Virgina

In the state of West Virginia we can project that Justin Amash Is the winner of its 3 electoral votes. The state’s officers are handily behind Amash who has vowed to fight against intrusive energy and environmental regulation.

3% in

✔ Amash: 66%
   Gallego: 31%

Ohio:

In the state of Ohio, on the other hand, it is too close to call, but the NBC election team is saying Amash has an advantage. Going into the election Amash is expected to run better in the Midwest than other Republicans have in the past.

1%

Gallego: 60%
Amash: 39%

Let’s check on the other poll closings from 7:00 to update you on that. Ah, yes, Virginia is still too early to call but again Gallego is said to have an advantage

18% in

Amash: 55%
Gallego: 43%

Okay, we have a projection, in the state of South Carolina we can project Justin Amash as the winner of its 10 electoral votes.

11% in

✔Amash: 52%
  Gallego: 47%

Into its northern neighbor, North Carolina, it is still too close to call as expected. It is expected to run long into the night. A big 17 electoral prize there.

9% in

Gallego: 54%
Amash: 44%

Lastly, in Georgia it is also too close to call. With the massive growth of the Atlanta in the last decade, this has become a toss-up state. Governor Carter has been influential in this race. Again, a big electoral prize here of 18 electoral votes.

4% in

Amash: 61%
Gallego: 38%

()

Amash: 30
Gallego: 0
Too close: 51
Too early: 15

National Popular Vote:

2% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

That’s what we have for the 7:30 Eastern projections by NBC. Too much of this so far is just that we don't have enough information to project the states. Certainly in an hour or two we'll have a better look at the national vote.

So far, we have 4 states for Amash, a total of 30 electoral votes, but still none for Gallego.

This looks interesting. Please continue!

Hayes: Not a surprise that West Virginia went the way it did, but Ohio will be very critical to the race. Amash absolutely needs Ohio if he wants to win, if he doesn't win it would be a blow to him. Also, is it a surprise South Carolina went to Amash as early as it did?

Kornacki: No, Democrats have been talking about it but it was more wishful thinking than anything else. There are so many battlegrounds tonight. Certainly I think the dynamic nature of the candidates is somewhat realigning some of the state’s results tonight. We see states like Illinois, Arizona, Texas, and even Mississippi, competitive. States that just 10 years ago seemed unthinkable to be competitive. A lot of this also has to do with population growth and demographic change and so forth, but I think tonight has the potential to be a realigning election.

Hayes: Yeah, coming up at 8:00 here were going to have poll closings in many important states including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. These races will start defining the race. The thing is, there’s a lot of states with many electoral votes, so it’s about winning those large states more than it is just winning battlegrounds in general.

Maddow: Hey Steve, you said you had a map of all the competitive states in the presidential race, correct? Can... can we put up that map to show the viewers what's going on tonight?

Kornacki: Certainly

()

Maddow: Wow, that's a huge amount of states.

Kornacki: Yeah, I considered two things when making this map. Polls and history. Any states with a margin under 6% for either candidate are here, and also any state that may not fit that criteria, but has been consistently competitive in the past 3 presidential elections. As you can see, a lot of Midwest states but also more of focus on the sunbelt.

 - - Other dialogue continues - -

Hayes: In just a few minutes, we will have poll closings in 16 states plus the District of Columbia, so don’t miss that. Stay with us.

Maddow: It is 8:00 PM on the east coast and there are a massive 17 states plus the District of Columbia scrolling on your screen. We will start with the most important ones of the batch.



Florida

In Florida it is too close to call with 33 electoral votes. This is a big state where the Hispanic vote could make the difference. As you can see, already a third of the vote is in because most of the state actually closed at 7:00.

34% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 47%

Illinois

In Illinois, it is also too close to call, however NBC is saying that Gallego has a lead based off the early exit polls. Republicans say that the Republican trend in the rural areas of the state benefit them, however Democrats say that Cook County and the Chicago suburbs will deliver the state for them. 18 electoral votes.

5% in

Gallego: 75%
Amash: 23%

Mississippi

In Mississippi the characterization by NBC is that it is too close to call. Only 5 electoral votes but at this point it could make or break the election. It is the only state in America where over 40% of its electorate is black.

2% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 49%

New Hampshire

In New Hampshire, it is also too close to call. The smallest electoral prize of any battleground but it is as close as a hair.

10% in

Gallego: 49%
Amash: 49%

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, its 18 electoral votes are highly contentious and up for grabs by both campaigns. Both campaigns have said they need the state. It is characterized as too close to call.

3% in

Gallego: 71%
Amash: 28%

Alabama

In Alabama, there is a projection. Governer Amash is the winner of its 8 electoral votes with little shock.

0% in

✔Amash
  Gallego

Connecticut

In Connecticut, Senator Gallego is the projected winner of its 6 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Gallego: 58%
  Amash: 40%

District of Columbia

DC projected to go to Mr Gallego. The District of Columbia has never voted for a Republican for president before and tonight it will not start doing so.

2% in

✔Gallego: 90%
  Amash: 9%

Delaware

In Delaware, another blue state, the projected winner is Ruben Gallego. 3 electoral votes for him.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Maine

Going up to Maine, its characterization is that it is too early to call, but Gallego has a lead in Maine.

1% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 44%

Maryland

Going back down to Maryland, Gallego is easily projected to the winner over Governor Amash of its 10 electoral votes.

3% in

✔Gallego: 65%
  Amash: 34%

Massachusetts

Classic blue Massachusetts is also in the bag for Gallego, another 10 electoral votes.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Missouri

In Missouri the projected winner is Justin Amash. 9 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Amash: 64%
  Gallego: 34%

New Jersey

In New Jersey it is too early to call, though Gallego is leading in New Jersey.

2% in

Gallego: 54%
Amash: 45%

Oklahoma

Oklahoma, possibly the reddest state in America, is projected for Amash.

1% in

✔Amash: 70%
  Gallego: 30%

Rhode Island

Conversely, Rhode Island, one of the bluest states in America, is projected for Gallego.

✔Gallego: 61%
  Amash: 37%

Tennessee

In the great state of Tennessee, Justin Amash is the projected winner.

0% in

✔Amash
  Gallego

Vermont

Finally, in Vermont, Ruben Gallego is the winner of its electoral votes. The well-known former senator Bernie Sanders who passed away just a few months ago endorsed Gallego with passion.

2% in

✔Gallego: 68%
  Amash: 30%

A lot of information just there, here is the electoral map as it stands after all those characterizations.

()

Amash: 65
Gallego: 38
Too Close: 128
Too Early: 31

With that huge batch of states, Amash so far has 65 electoral votes to Gallego's 38. A whopping 128 electoral votes where the polls have closed are still too close to call, while 31 are too early. So What do we make of those returns?

 - - dialogue by commentators - -

 - - dialogue between commentators (8:09 PM) - -

Maddow: I'm sorry to interupt but we have a projection to make. In the state of Virginia which was previously characterized as too early to call by NBC news, it is now projected for Senator Gallego. That adds 15 electoral votes to the Senator's previous tally of 38 electoral votes to now 53 electoral votes.

49% in

✔Gallego: 50%
  Amash: 48%

()

By 2036, we would at least have The National Popular Vote bill in effect.  It would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.   
         
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 80% of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.
         
The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of Electoral College votes—that is, enough to elect a President (270 of 538). The candidate receiving the most popular votes from all 50 states (and DC) would get all the 270+ electoral votes of the enacting states.
               
By April 2015, the bill had passed 33 state legislative chambers in 22 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 250 electoral votes. The bill had been enacted by 11 jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
               
NationalPopularVote.com      

Go Amash!

Hayes: Welcome back to MSNBC. It is 8:30 PM on the east coast on election night 2036. We can project right now that the House of Representatives will be retained by the Republican Party as it has been since the redistricting of 2030. This is not a projection on any specific race, but a whole projection on control of the House of Representatives. Republicans will have more than the 218 necessary for a majority. As of now, its 231 Republicans to 204 Democrats. That can of course change, but as of now that is our estimate.

✔Republicans: 231
  Democrats: 204

Now let’s get to the poll closing in the presidential race. There is only one, Arkansas, and we can project right now that Justin Amash has won that state as expected by most pundits.

Arkansas

2% in

✔Amash: 63%
  Gallego: 35%

We can also use this time right now to go back to previous states that were too early or too close to call.

In New Jersey, which had previously been characterized as too early to call, Gallego had been projected the winner during the commercial break. Even though it Is still early for that state, we have exit poll information we didn’t have before.

23% in

✔Gallego: 55%
  Amash: 44%

In the state of Florida, it is still too close to call. Now 71% in, and it is a razor thin margin between the two candidates. The good news for Gallego is that much of Miami Dade is still out, but at the same time, the northern panhandle is taking a while to report.

71% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

In the state of Georgia, we can say it’s too close to call. Here are the numbers right now. Democrats are optimistic while Republicans are saying there are still way too many votes left.

48% in

Amash: 54%
Gallego: 45%

And we have a breaking new call in the state of Illinois that we just got word of, and that is that Gallego is now the projected winner of that state. 18 electoral votes for the Senator.

31% in

Gallego: 63%
Amash: 35%

Down in the state of Mississippi, it is still too close to call. If the state went to Gallego it would be the first time the state went Democratic since 1976.

37% in

Amash: 53%
Gallego: 46%

Over in North Carolina, it is too close to call again. It is notable however that Gallego has kept a lead all through the night

60% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 47%

In Ohio, it is still too close to call as well. We’ve been closely monitoring the results of the state throughout the night as a guiding point to who will win the election. Over half the vote in now.

52% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 47%

In Pennsylvania it has been characterized as too close to call. Now experts on the NBC team are stating that it is too close but Amash has an advantage. Very important notification on the state of Pennsylvania.

40% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 46%

In Maine, which been too early to call, is now too close to call. That is a characterization change by NBC news. That means Maine now has enough information but the margin is too narrow.

25% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 45%

Finally, in New Hampshire it is too close to call.

44% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 48%

()

Gallego: 84
Amash: 70
Too Close: 110
Too Early: 3

That wraps up our battleground states. Now let’s discuss this with our panel.

I'm trying to picture a grey haired Chris Hayes with some extra pounds.

Yeah, there will likely be younger people by that point in time but there's now way in knowing who they would be. Obviously people like Matthews and Sharpton will be gone, but I imagine many of the younger anchors staying for life. I don't know how I would imagine a 60+ year old Rachel Maddow...

Maybe the same but with grey hair. Also for all we know a few of them might have written books or moved on to other career ventures, but this is still fun to imagine.

Hayes: So we have many interesting revelations here. Maine is now too close to call, Illinois went to Gallego, Florida and Georgia are very tight, and many of the Rust Belt battlegrounds such as Ohio and Pennsylvania are too close to call still. Do we see Democrats at all losing faith in some of these swing states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania in particular?

Ball: Well, not exactly. Illinois was just called for Gallego, so I think that's good news. Even though it has been a blue state, Republicans really tried to contest it this time and failed. Even though Amash went into inner city Chicago and campaigned, numbers show about 69% of Cook County is going to Gallego still, so it didn't do much good. There is still about half or more than half of the vote in both Ohio and Pennsylvania left, so I think Gallego can still pull out victories there, but they will be tough.

Kornacki: We also have to pay crucial attention to these sunbelt states. Florida and Georgia are both really tight right now, as well as North Carolina. We did call Virginia for Gallego a little while ago, but Amash can still sweep the rest. With that said, it looks like a lot of urban turnout, based on me looking through the maps, is still being delayed a little in these big electoral vote states. In the next poll closing, Texas will be closed, and Amash absolutely needs that. 43 electoral votes is huge and if he doesn't win it he needs to sweep nearly all the remaining battlegrounds.

Maddow: The other very high profile news now is that Republicans have maintained the house, so if Gallego ends up being elected tonight, he will at least have a divided Congress. If Amash gets elected, he could have the potential to have a united government. We'll see on where the Senate goes tonight. Um, also, even though they're both 3 electoral votes, Maine and New Hampshire are incredibly close. I'll be stunned if those make or break the election but if they do, it'll be big news. Maine hasn't gone Republican since 1988 and New Hampshire since 2024.

 - - Other discussion continues - -

Hayes: Coming up after the break, we will meet with our friend Ari Melber again to see more exit polls that tell us how different groups in the electorate voted. Stay tuned, it is 8:40 PM on election night.

Maddow: We are back on this very exciting election night. One of the biggest takeaways of every election is how demographics impact each election. For that reason, we're going to go over to Ari Melber to see the exit polls broken down by group. Over to you, Ari.

Melber: Thanks Rachel. Let's first go by gender. There was a wide gender gap in this election. 55% of men voted for Amash while 54% of women voted for Gallego. That's about a 10 point gap between the candidates.

Gender

Men (47%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego
Women (53%): 54% Gallego, 44% Amash

Among race now, we see Amash has a heavy majority among white voters, however the rest of America is much more mixed. Blacks are voting solidly democratic as you see here and as they have been for nearly a century. Hispanic Americans lean toward the Democratic party, but Amash's performance here looks like a improvement from past GOP performance with them. Finally, the majority of Asians are voting for Amash.

Race/Ethnicity

White (56%): 62% Amash, 37% Gallego
Hispanic (22%): 61% Gallego, 36% Amash
Black (14%): 88% Gallego, 12% Amash
Asian (7%): 54% Amash, 44% Gallego
Other (2%): 51% Gallego, 47% Amash

Going to age, this is nothing new. We've seen this pattern very often, with young voters voting the most Democratic, and the oldest voters voting the most Republican.

Age

18-29 (20%): 57% Gallego, 40% Amash
30-44 (26%): 50% Gallego, 48% Amash
45-64 (39%): 52% Amash, 47% Gallego
65+ (15%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego

Now to income. Income heavily affects people's chances of voting. The wealthier you are the most likely you are to partake in the political process. The lower income brackets are heavily in favor of Gallego, but as you go up you see more Amash support along the way.

Income

Under $40,000 (20%): 62% Gallego, 36% Amash
$40,000-80,000 (33%): 51% Amash, 47% Gallego
$80,000-120,000 (22%): 55% Amash, 44% Gallego
$120,000+ (25%): 52% Amash, 45% Gallego

Another heavy influence on turnout, education. The majority of this country has a college education, and you can see the most educated people going slightly for Gallego, but less as you go to people who didn't go past a Bachelor's Degree, but back up for Gallego again for less educated people.

Education

Some College/No College (27%): 54% Gallego, 44% Amash
College Graduates (47%): 53% Amash, 46% Gallego
Postgraduates (26%): 50% Gallego, 47% Amash

Among religious groups, protestant christians are still a huge chunk of the electorate, and Amash won a handy majority of them. He also has a majority with Catholics. Gallego does better with people who say they are unaffiliated with a religion and minority religious groups.

Religion

Protestant Christian (46%): 56% Amash, 43% Gallego
Catholic (27%): 53% Amash, 46% Gallego
Unaffiliated (22%): 63% Gallego, 33% Amash
Other (5%): 66% Gallego, 32% Amash

Back to you, Rachel.

Will you be presenting the "historical" results of 2016-32?  From your comment about Virginia, it sounds like Walker, like Obama, has a closer reelection race in 2024 than in 2020?

I'd be interested to see this as well.

I can do it when I'm completely done with it. The thing is, I wanted to plop this in the future with a little bit of background info (but not too much) so the viewer could pick up on things as the "night" goes on. Part of what makes this interesting is not knowing exactly what happened in the 20 years in between when it comes to trends.

My two cents: I like the way you're doing it, let's us fill in the background ourselves. Agree with your reasoning 100%. Keep it up!

Maddow: Thanks Ari! We have a call that we previously had as too close to call. In the state of Mississippi worth 5 electoral votes, we can project that Governor Amash is the winner of that state. It is still close and there is still a lot of vote left, but our team has said he will end up ahead in the end.

47% in

✔Amash: 51%
  Gallego: 48%

()

Gallego: 84
Amash: 75
Too Close: 108

 - - dialogue by commentators - -

Hayes: Welcome back, it is 9:00 PM on the east coast on election night, and the polls are closing in all of these states scrolling on your screen



We'll give you all the calls we can right now starting in the state of Colorado.


It is too close to call right now in the state of Colorado. A decent prize for whoever carries it.

1% in

Amash: 66%
Gallego: 32%

In New Mexico, we can say that it is too early to call, but Gallego is expected to win in the state of New Mexico.

2% in

Gallego: 55%
Amash: 42%

In the state of Kansas, we project that Justin Amash has won that state, a classic red state.

11% in

✔Amash: 59%
Gallego: 39%

In Nebraska, Justin Amash is also the winner, just 4 electoral votes.

2% in

✔Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

In North Dakota, the projected winner is Governor Amash.

0% in

✔Amash
Gallego

In South Dakota, same thing. Justin Amash is the projected winner.

0% in

✔Amash
Gallego

In Wyoming, the projected winner is Justin Amash. No surprise for all of these thus far.

1% in

✔Amash: 72%
Gallego: 25%

Going to Louisiana, it is projected for Governor Amash. 8 electoral votes.

1% in

✔Amash: 62%
Gallego: 37%

To its neighbor Texas, it is too early, but Amash has a lead in Texas. That's what NBC news is telling us right now.

8% in

Amash: 60%
Gallego: 38%

Going eastward now to Minnesota. It is too close to call. If Amash carries it he would be the first Republican to do so since Richard Nixon.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

In the state of Wisconsin, it is also too close to call. Amash targeted it with his Midwest campaign strategy and has firm backing from former president Scott Walker.

1% in

Amash: 57%
Gallego: 42%

In the state of Michigan, Amash's home state, it is also too close to call. It would be embarassing as a governor who won Michigan twice to lose his home state in the presidential race.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Finally, in the state of New York, no surprise to learn that Ruben Gallego has carried this state, the only state he has carried thus far in this batch of states.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

Here is our electoral map. 270 needed to win. As you can see both candidates are still far from that goal as many big electoral prize states are competitive tonight.

()

Gallego: 111
Amash: 102
Too Close: 151
Too early: 48

(9:08 PM EST)

Hayes: We have two major projections right now that we just got notice of. In the state of Ohio which is usually a highly contested state in presidential elections due to its bellwether status, Justin Amash is now the projected winner in that state. No Republican has won without Ohio.

71% in

✔Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

And in the state of New Mexico which closed just a few moments ago and was said to be too early to call, Ruben Gallego has won this state neighboring his home state of Arizona.

4% in

✔Gallego: 54%
Amash: 43%

()

Amash: 118
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 135
Too early: 43


Thank you!

I'm sorry about the delay on this, I will get back to this promptly tomorrow.

Hayes: Very important calls there, but let’s go back to our discussion. So we’ve been discussing all night how neither of these candidates represent the establishment of the parties they’re running for. Gallego is far more populist and even socialistic in his stances than the Democratic Party, and Amash is far more libertarian than the Republican Party. How could that affect the states they win tonight?

Maddow: Certainly some voters who traditionally vote a certain way can vote for the other party. We tend to see that tonight in the Rust Belt and in the Southeast. The degree that Amash wants to cut government spending can really alienate a lot of people, even Republican voters because they care about military spending. At the same time, the degree to which Gallego wants to expand social services of the government will alienate some otherwise Democratic voting people. Both candidates can add voters to their column for those reasons, but they will both inevitably alienate some portions of their own party.

Ball: It’s important to notice that Senator Gallego doesn’t call himself a ‘big government politician’, and Governor Amash doesn’t call himself a ‘politician who doesn’t car for working people’. The slogans that both candidates use are very smart. The way voters hear your message is one of the most important aspects of winning an election, so politicians have mastered this skill.

Hayes: Alright, coming up, we’ll go county by county on some of these swing states as we seek the winner of this presidential election. Stay with us on MSNBC.

Hayes: We're back on this very important night, it is election night. We are still waiting on calls in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. 11 states still, and remarkably the number of electoral votes in the 'too close to call' category outnumbers both candidates electoral scores so far. To break down some of the key states to know whats going on tonight, we go to Steve Kornacki again. Steve.

Kornacki: Thank you Chris. First we're going to look at Georgia

()

62% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

Some counties still haven't reported yet, but as you can see the Atlanta area has come in pretty strong for Gallego. Right now Gallego has 47% of the vote. The problem for Gallego now is that much of the urban diverse vote is coming in right now or hasn't come in. It may not be enough to save him. Everything else out is from rural southern Georgia or the Republican northern part of the state.

Out of counties right now we have Gwinnett County. It is the face of new Georgia, it is suburban, diverse, and has over a million people. Right now, Gallego is leading in Gwinnett County 53-46. In counties like DeKalb and Fulton, Gallego is raking up margins by hundreds of thousands of votes. However if you look north to counties like Cherokee and Forsyth, both of which have populations near of over 300,000, They are voting around 4:1 for Amash. So Gallego's challenge is to get enough votes out of metro Atlanta to overcome the rural parts of the state, Amash's challenge is to get out enough votes in the more exurban and rural areas of the state to overcome Atlanta.

As we move to Florida now...

()

88% in

Gallego: 49%
Amash: 49%

This is so close right now. Only 30,000 votes separating the two candidates in a state that look to have over 10 million votes. Gallego strongholds are southeast Florida and the Orlando area. For instance Miami Dade is 63% Gallego, 37% Amash right now. Broward similarly going 69% Gallego, 30% Amash. But we can see why its close. In Southwest Florida, we got counties like Collier, where Amash is getting 65% of the vote to Gallego's 34%. In the panhandle, a Republican stronghold for over 50 years, Amash is consistently getting over 70% of the vote. So even though southeast Florida makes up over 35% of the state's population, the Republican strongholds of the state are not only going for him, they're going for him big.

Lastly, we'll go to Pennsylvania.

()

71% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

It is important to note here that all of Philadelphia is in, so it looks like Amash can only go up from here. As you can see, Amash is narrowly leading in the state, but lets go through the counties. Suburban Philly counties like Chester and Buck are going for Amash. Philadelphia is going 80% for Gallego, however its population has stagnated over years, meaning there has been no growing Democratic vote here. Democrats have been trying hard to recover votes they have lost in recent elections, including the western part of the state. Meanwhile the Republicans rack up margins in a big amount of rural counties. From what it looks like Amash will win this.

Back to you, Chris.

Hayes: Thanks Steve, that's very interesting insight. Going into counties and regions of state can explain much of the battleground status.

- - dialogue between commentators - -

(9:21 PM EST)

Maddow: We have a call in a state NBC called too close to call. In the state of Pennsylvania with its 18 electoral votes, we can project that it will go to Governor Amash.

74% in

✔Amash: 50%
  Gallego: 49%

()

Amash: 136
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 117
Too early: 43

That is our electoral map as it stands. Coming up at the top of the hour, we will review all the major battleground states that are undecided.

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC's election night coverage. I'm here with Chris Wallace, Ari Melber, Krystal Ball, and Steve Kornacki. It is now the bottom of the hour, and we had two projections over the commercial break in a states that were too early or close to call. New Hampshire is projected for Justin Amash. New Hampshire was Mr Amash’s best state in the primary so it’s a very well possibility that it helped him there.

77% in

✔ Amash: 51%
  Gallego: 47%

In Texas, which was too early to call before, it is now also being projected for Mr. Amash. A massive 43 electoral votes added to his column. It looks like the Latino turnout here didn’t help Gallego after all.

39% in

✔Amash: 55%
  Gallego: 43%

We are also going to go over states that were too close to call and also check in on states that are too close to call still.

In Colorado, it is too close to call. It closed just a half hour ago.

24% in

Amash: 54%
Gallego: 44%

In the swing state of Florida, almost all of the vote is in, it is just so close that we still can’t call it. Experts say it is likely now to go down to a recount. Those of you who are old enough know what happened in this state 36 years ago.

92% in

Gallego: 49.3%
Amash: 49.2%

For Georgia, it is too close to call.

68% in

Amash: 51%
Gallego: 48%

In Maine, it is too close to call. Maine hasn't been won by a Republican since 1988.

61% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 45%

In North Carolina, it is too close to call. Gallego is still leading. It is notable that this state was Gallego's last state visit before returning to his home in Phoenix.

79% in

Gallego: 51%
Amash: 48%

There are quite a few close states in the Midwest that closed a half hour ago. In Michigan, Justin Amash’s home state, it is too close to call.

22% in

Amash: 55%
Gallego: 44%

In Minnesota, it is too close to call. Despite Amash's supposed Midwest appeal, the question of eliminating farm subsidies might hurt him.

16% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 47%

In Wisconsin, it is also too close to call. Amash has visited Milwaukee several times during his tour.

25% in

Amash: 56%
Gallego: 42%

There are some complaints that we’ve called Illinois too early, but our NBC team is standing by the projection.

57% in

✔Gallego: 56%
  Amash: 42%

That wraps up the close states at this point. Amash has 182 electoral votes, Gallego has 116, and 114 are still out and open. 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

()

Amash: 182
Gallego: 116
Too Close: 114

Here's a look at the national popular vote thus far. Looks like a very close race.

31% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 48%

 - - discussion continues between commentators - -

Hayes: We are back on this MSNBC election night. Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are too close to call totaling 114 electoral votes. Justin Amash has 182 electoral votes in his column including the critical states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and New Hampshire. Ruben Gallego has 116 electoral votes including the critical states of Illinois, Virginia, and New Mexico.

As of this status in the night, who looks like they have a better chance at winning the presidency, Gallego or Amash?

Melber: Amash is certainly leading Gallego in electoral votes right now, however I think many blue states that will end up in Gallego’s column are still out there. Specifically the west coast states will deliver many electoral votes, and those don’t close until 11:00 PM, so it may be misleading to say Amash has a lead at this point.

Ball: Amash’s strategy looks like consuming the Midwest besides Illinois, while also winning at least one of those three southeastern states that are still too close to call yet. Gallego’s strategy seems to increasingly be to sweep the western states and then come back and maybe win Florida or North Carolina. He may be able to pull off Georgia, but it looks a little optimistic….

Hayes: I’m sorry, we have a call in a very important state. In the state of North Carolina where it has been tight all evening but Gallego has also lead all evening, NBC projects that Senator Gallego is the winner of that state’s 17 elecoral votes. Certainly this boosts prospects for his campaign.

93% in

✔Gallego: 51%
  Amash: 48%

()

Amash: 182
Gallego: 133
Too Close: 97

Gallego’s electoral tally is now at 133 to Amash’s 182. Since we’re talking about all this and it seems very important calls are coming our way, let’s go to Steve Kornacki for what if scenarios with the electoral college tonight. Steve, take it away.

Kornacki: Thanks you Chris. With North Carolina now called for Gallego we have 7 states that are too close to call remaining, and 11 states that have yet to close. Let’s go through the scenarios right now.

First let’s go to the southeast. Florida is definitely looking like it’ll go to a recount. We could see a dreaded repeat of the 2000 election, we may not. All we know right now is that 95% of the vote is in and the margin separating to the two candidates is less than 0.2%. I think if Amash wins Florida its his election to lose. Up to Georgia, we have about 80% of the votes in. Amash is leading Gallego by about 4 points it looks like. There is still some Atlanta area vote to come in so that looks like it could go either way, but Amash is leading at the moment.

Now to the Midwest. Michigan, Amash’s home state, has about 35% of the vote reporting, Amash is leading however the Detroit area and other Democratic cities like Ann Arbor have yet to come in. It is notable however that Detroit has declined significantly in influence in the past 80 years. Over to Wisconsin, we see a similar story. About the same percentage reporting, Amash is leading, but some urban areas have yet to come in. Some see this as a good sign since the Milwaukee suburbs are heavily Republican, however Madison and Milwaukee together usually outvote those areas. Up in Minnesota, the growing Minneapolis urban core and suburbs have become more influential. There’s no reporting advantage as to whether Republican or Democratic areas are coming in first, but it remains very close.

Now to the remaining states, Colorado and Maine. Maine is still too close to call, although I will note Senator Gallego is leading by almost 6 points with 75% in, so it looks like its leaning towards Gallego. Not the end of the world if Amash loses it though, it’s only 3 electoral votes. Over to Colorado, about 40% of the vote has reported, and so far Amash is leading by close to double digits. However, Denver has not even started reporting, so we may need a bit more time to call Colorado.

With all that said now, if we set the electoral map in the what-if mode, and select all the likely Gallego states to be put in his column. California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii are all likely to be in his column as of tonight. And we put the likely Amash states in his column including Idaho, Utah, Alaska and Montana. Now we have an electoral map of 201 electoral votes for Amash and 214 electoral votes for Gallego. So now we have battlegrounds of Arizona, Gallego’s home state, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

(

)

Gallego: 214
Amash: 201
Battleground: 123

As we can see, Amash now has to get a majority of these electoral votes. That involves likely getting the tight Midwestern states on his side. Let’s assume he wins them all. Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin all go to him. That gets him to 238 electoral votes. Now he either has to sweep all the states out west that would get him to exactly 270, or win some states out west while also winning at least 1 of Georgia or Florida. Florida would completely cover those 32 electoral votes out west, so we can see how crucial Florida is now. If Gallego wins even one of those Midwestern states, Amash has to increasingly rely on sweeping the vast majority of the other states. On Gallego’s side, he has to rely on Nevada and Arizona, two states in his home vicinity. Those two states alone would get him 21 electoral votes to add up to 235. Getting Florida would get him to 268, and he would only need Maine to put him over the top. Not to mention the possibilities of winning some of those upper Midwest states.

Again, this is all speculation, we are just playing out the scenarios. With that, I’ll take it back to Chris.

Hayes: Thank you, Steve. I feel like I understand the electoral that much more just from watching him click on the various states. I also think that lets the viewer see the interactive idea of the electoral map.

- - Discussion between commentators continues - -  

Maddow: It is 10:00 PM on the east coast and 6 states are closing, including the very important states of Arizona, Iowa, and Nevada.



Arizona:

In the state of Arizona it is too close to call. Mr Gallego's home state and one of the most important states according to his campaign. The last time the Democrats carried this state was 1996 but its been close in the poll all year.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Idaho:

In the state of Idaho we can project will little to no surprise than Mr Amash will be the projected winner.

1% in

✔Amash: 66%
  Gallego: 32%

Iowa:

In the state of Iowa, we have this interesting characterization. It is that it is too early to call, but Amash is said to have an advantage.

1% in

Gallego: 53%
Amash: 45%

Montana:

In the big state of Montana, it is projected to go to Justin Amash. 4 electoral votes.

2% in

✔Amash: 57%
  Gallego: 40%

Nevada:

In the state of Nevada, it is too early to call with a Gallego advantage according to NBC. 8 electoral votes.

0% in

Gallego
Amash

Utah:

Finally, in Utah, we can project Justin Amash as the winner. Mormons are a very conservative voting block and they are 50% of the voting population in Utah.

1% in

✔Amash: 69%
  Gallego: 29%

Those are our 10:00 PM closings. Here is what the electoral map looks like now with those closings.

()

Amash: 198
Gallego: 133
Too Close: 110
Too Early: 13

(10:11 PM EST)

Maddow: We have an interruption. There has been a call for the presidential race in the state of Maine. Maine has been projected for Senator Gallego. Although only 3 electoral votes it gives the Gallego camp something to be positive about.

90% in

✔Gallego: 51%
  Amash: 46%

()

Amash: 198
Gallego: 136
Too Close: 107
Too Early: 13

Really interesting, and now that I have seen more, I appreciate the mystery that comes from not knowing all of the recent past.  It would be really cool to see county maps for VA/NC/GA, like you did for FL/PA!

- - dialogue - -

(10:24 PM EST)

Maddow: We have yet anorther interruption in an important state call. In the state of Georgia with its 18 electoral votes, we project that Governor Amash has won the state. This comes to a great disappointment to Governor Carter who worked very hard to try and push turnout to the maximum there.

89% in

✔Amash: 50.6%
  Gallego: 48.5%

()

Amash: 216
Gallego: 136
Too Close: 89
Too Early: 13

When we come back, we will analyze all the current states still out yet, including Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Wisconsin. You don't want to miss that, stay with MSNBC.

Yay!

I'm rooting for the ticket more likely to support my beliefs here. #Gallego2036 #BeatAmash

Hayes: We are back at MSNBC election night 2036. It is too close to call in 5 states still with 5 yet to close, and 2 states that are 2 early to call. We have recently called Georgia for Governor Amash and Maine for Senator Gallego. We are going to go into in depth analysis on some of these states we have yet to call with our friend Steve Kornacki in just a moment but before that lets talk about the electoral situation. Georgia just got projected for Amash, does this mean Gallego is running out of options?

Melber: Yes, but is also means Amash is running out of options. We're getting closer and closer to 270, but were still far from it, so we need to wait a little longer to wait and see.

Ball: Much of the west coast is going to close soon, likely returning electoral votes to Gallego, but now that all of the southern battlegrounds are decided except for Florida, this election probably pends on the Midwest and the mountain west.

Maddow: On an unrelated note, it seems one of the trends we're going to see tonight is an increasing urban rural divide. We've identified this trend 50 years ago or more, but now I think we're really seeing it in action. Despite Gallego's competitiveness in this election, we're probably going to see swaths of land go red on county maps even more than the past.

 - - dialogue - -

Hayes: Now its time to turn to Steve Kornacki for our bottom of the hour electoral analysis.

Kornacki: Thank you. As it seems now, the Midwestern states are as tight as a tick. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are all too close to call and may be for a good chunk of the rest of the night. First, lets go to Iowa.

()

24% in

Gallego: 52%
Amash: 46%

There are some counties that have yet to report. The critical thing here, if Gallego wants to win this state, is to win the rural eastern areas of the state, along with the urban areas. If they don't do that, he's in trouble.

()

59% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

In the case of Michigan, the declining urban cities can be what puts Gallego on top. The important thing here is too look at the suburbs of Detroit, mainly Oakland and Macomb County. Oakland is 51-47 Amash and Macomb is 52-46 Amash. If he can hold those margins, he can likely hold the state, though it will be close.

To Minnesota

()

65% in

Gallego: 50%
Amash: 48%

While this may look like a washout by Amash, the twin cities is still carrying the weight for Gallego. This staet is a classic case of urban rural split. Decades ago some of these rural areas would vote Democratic. As you can see here, they're mostly red today. The strategy for Gallego is to have very high turnout in the iron range in northern Minnesota, the most unionized area in the country, along with the twin cities. For Amash, the strategy is high turnout in the higher income suburbs.

Wisconsin now

()

68% in

Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

Although it looks like Amash is leading right now, Dane county is only reporting 33% of its precincts. Gallego's hope is to have enough votes out in the Madison area, Amash's hope is to have enough votes to overflow the Democratic votes in the heavily Republican Milwaukee suburbs. Either way, they're both chasing after these 9 electoral votes.

All of these states are too close to call and most likely will be for the next hour or so. Chris back to you.

Hayes: Thanks.

 - - dialogue continues - -

You favor expanding the social safety net, cutting military spending, getting money out of politics, and more labor rights such as paid vacation leave?

It appears you accidentally used the non-atlas colors in the actual maps in your last post for all but Iowa.

No, actually that was on purpose. Iowa is correct. TV news is going to use the red-Republican blue-Democrat alignment.

Ok. In the partial results you used the atlas colors, so it was kind of confusing to see the reverse on the county map.

Oh yeah, sorry. I figure its easy enough to figure out Republican and Democrat though.

Great work. Looks like Amash is likely to win based on what I've seen so far, and hopefully he does it without needing Florida so that we don't have a repeat of that debacle.

Out of curiosity, what is the methodology you used to come up with your EVs per state?

I didn't really use a methodology. I just analyzed current (and by that I mean last 20-30 years) population shift trends and predicted them for all the states. I just had to make sure they all added up to 538 in the end.

Hayes: Lets go over one more time, for the sake of the viewers, the close states that we've called earlier in the evening. First, although it may not be a surprise to many, but South Carolina has narrowly gone to Amash.

94% in

✔Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

In Virginia, we projected a bit early on that Senator Gallego would hold the state.

98% in

✔Gallego: 54%
Amash: 44%

North Carolina, it took us a bit longer, but we also projected it for Gallego.

92% in

✔Gallego: 51%
Amash: 48%

In Mississippi, although many predicted it would be close, we called it much earlier than North Carolina.

87% in

✔Amash: 52%
Gallego: 48%

Georgia had taken a considerable amount of time but its now Amash territory.

92% in

✔Amash: 51%
Gallego: 48%

Now to the Rust Belt. Ohio we have Amash winning the 16 electoral votes.

90% in

✔Amash: 53%
Gallego: 46%

East to Pennsylvania, a similar margin for Amash

93% in

✔Amash: 52%
Gallego: 47%

Smaller states, New Hampshire had been called for Amash in a close race.

89% in

✔Amash: 51%
Gallego: 47%

Maine had been called for Gallego recently.

95% in

✔Gallego: 51%
Amash: 46%

Illinois was expected to be a prime swing state, but we called it rather early.

85% in

✔Gallego: 53%
Amash: 46%

Finally, the big state of Texas and its 43 electoral votes have been given to Amash

60% in

✔Amash: 53%
Gallego: 45%

Every other state that has been called has largely expected to go that way. For those states gone through here, that adds up 113 electoral votes for Amash and 53 electoral votes for Gallego. Here is a look at the popular vote.

63% in

Amash: 50%
Gallego: 49%

Hmmm... if Amash is only up 50/49 pre-California against a Hispanic opponent,  It looks like Gallego will take the popular vote.  Of course, he is narrowly losing Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia, so the electoral college is much closer.

(10:56 PM EST)

Maddow: Welcome back to MSNBC, we have been not only following the very close and exciting presidential race tonight, we have also been following the Senate races. We aren't going to give you any specific Senate race at this time, but we will update you about the status of the Senate. The Democrats need 4 seats to pickup the senate if Gallego is elected president, but 5 if Amash is elected since the Vice President gets the deciding vote. Democrats so far have a net gain of two seats. This Senate class last got elected in 2030, a good Republican year, and most prognosticators expect the Democrats to pickup a few seats.

()

Red - Democratic hold
Dark Red - Democratic gain
Blue - Republican hold
Dark Blue - Republican gain
Lime Green - Too close or too early
Golden - Not yet closed

The Democrats have picked up seats in Florida, Maine, and New Mexico while Republicans have picked up a seat in Virginia. That's a net gain of 2. We do not yet know the status of the Senate. The Democrats have to pick up 2 to 3 of the remaining 4 seats that are too close. Arizona is held by Gallego himself and California, Hawaii, and Washington Senate seats are all held by Democrats.

Maddow: It is 11:00 PM on the east coast and 4 states have closed on the Pacific coast. The 4 states include California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

California:

We can project the massive state of California will go to Senator Gallego. This is not a surprise. The state should be a balance to middle America where Gallego is not performing too hot tonight.

1% in

✔Gallego: 58%
Amash: 38%

Hawaii:

We can also project Hawaii for Mr Gallego. It continues on its long streak of Democratic voting.

0% in

✔Gallego
Amash

Oregon:

In Oregon, Gallego is the winner, without much difficulty. He campaigned heavily in the Pacific Northwest.

0% in

✔Gallego
Amash

Washington:

Washington, same story, Gallego is the winner and its 13 electoral votes go to him.

0% in

✔Gallego
  Amash

With that now said, that adds quite a bit to Gallego's electoral vote total.

()

Amash: 216
Gallego: 217
Too Close: 89
Too Early: 13

The election now pends on the upper Midwest, the southwest, and Florida.

 - - dialogue between commentators - -

(11:06 PM EST)

Hayes: We have to interupt for breaking news we just got from the Florida Secretary of State's office. The election will be on hold for a recount until at least tomorrow morning. These are the results so far.

96% in

Gallego: 49.4%
Amash: 49.2%

Only 0.2% and about 25,000 votes separating the two candidates. So we will not have an official call on that until tomorrow. That's big news, because 33 electoral votes in a presidential election is a lot, enough to completely tip the balance for a victory. Unless either candidate wins a vast majority of the states left, this election may not be decided until tomorrow. All eyes are on Florida now.

(11:10 EST)

Hayes: We have two calls in two states that we previously could not characterize. In Iowa, Justin Amash has won the state and its 5 electoral votes. However, in Nevada, Ruben Gallego has won the state and its 8 electoral votes. There is still no call in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All of them are very close yet.

Iowa:

44% in

✔Amash: 52%
Gallego: 46%

Nevada:

29% in

✔Gallego: 51%
Amash: 45%



()

Gallego: 225
Amash: 221
Too Close: 56
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here is a look at the national popular vote at this time

66% in

Amash: 50.6%
Gallego: 48.1%

Already experts are predicting that more than 165 million votes will be cast in the 2036 presidential election.

 - - dialogue continues - -

Don't tell me... no. Not this again
- Every Floridian on this forum

(11:26 PM EST)

Maddow: We have a projection in a state that was previously too close to call. In Colorado it is confirmed now that even with the vast majority of Denver's votes in that Justin Amash was carried the state of Colorado. Despite the fact that Gallego is leading very slightly, there are not enough votes left from the rest of the state for him to win.

79% in

  Gallego: 49%
✔Amash: 49%

Our team says they will be able to make projections very soon for the states of Wisconsin and Michigan.

()

Amash: 232
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 45
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Calling it now: of what remains, Gallego wins only Arizona and there are Florida legal theatrics again.  Which leads to a very important question: Who appointed the current SCOTUS?  Are any of the current Justices still around?  Looks like there would be a lot more moderates given that opposite party Senate control has been the norm.  Scalia probably steps down in 2021.  Ginsburg and Breyer hopefully step down under Clinton and get replaced by moderate left women.  Kennedy obviously wants to retire under divided government, but I think he would prefer R president/D senate to D president/R senate?  Thomas and Alito will be over 85 and presumably didn't retire back in 2021-22.

Kornacki: This presidential election is becoming very hard to predict. With 5 states too close to call, Florida out, and a few of the minor swing states such as Iowa and Nevada called, its getting closer and closer but we'll likely have to wait until tomorrow or late tonight for a winner.

Ball: What do you guys think of Amash winning Colorado? Is that bad news for Gallego? I know he was targeting it

Melber: Possibly, but there's really no conceivable way for Amash to win the election without Colorado, so I don't think its a big disadvantage, and even all those upper Midwest states go the way of Colorado, all Gallego needs to win is Florida, where he's leading slightly, and Arizona, his home state.

Maddow: The fascinating thing still is that both candidates home states are too close. Amash comes from a traditionally Democratic state, Gallego comes from a traditionally Republican state, yet they both managed to win in their states as the opposite parties for Governor and Senate. A presidential election is a bit different though. You're not as close to the people as say a Governor would be.

 - - more discussion - -

Hayes: When we come back, there will be Senate analysis and a breakdown of states that have yet to be called. Stay with MSNBC.

I love this timeline. Keep it up!

Hayes: Welcome back to MSNBC. As you may know by now it has been a nailbreaking night for the presidential race. There are 5 states still too close to call and one, Alaska, not yet closed. But while we're waiting for those calls, lets go to some Senate analysis by Ari Melber. Ari...

Melber: Thanks. Since the last update of the Senate, the west coast has closed and all those Senate seats have gone to the Democrats. Republicans have barely held on in Pennsylvania, have picked up Gallego's Arizona seat, but Democrats have picked up Michigan. That means that now Democrats have to pick up both of Wisconsin and Nevada, which are Republican held and have Republican incumbents, in order to get control of the Senate. And they also need to win the presidency, otherwise the Vice President (George P Bush) would take the tie braking vote.

()

Red - Democratic hold
Dark Red - Democratic gain
Blue - Republican hold
Dark Blue - Republican gain
Lime Green - Too close or too early

At this moment, Republicans have 50 seats in the Senate, while Democrats have 48. Back to you Chris.

Hayes: Wow, that is certainly some suspenseful stuff right there. We might not be able to call the Senate or the presidency tonight.

Maddow: The Senate situation is certainly not what the Democrats were hoping for tonight. Now they have to sweep the table with Wisconsin, Nevada, and the presidency. All Amash has to do is win the presidency and he can get a completely Republican Congress to enact whatever they want, whether that's cutting off funds to social security, medicare or a national right to work law.

Kornacki: The Senate and Presidency relationship have been very interesting to watch tonight. We got Michigan and Minnesota going Democratic which could spell bad things for Amash in those states, and then there's Arizona, which actually fell Republican quite quickly actually. Gallego barely pulled out that 2030 victory in his home state, but tonight in a supposedly more favorable setting, it went Republican. Certainly he knows how to get elected in his state, and that should get him the state in the presidential race, but its still super close.

Hayes: Lets diverge from the Senate from a moment to talk about the states still out. Lets take a look at Arizona in the presidential race. In Maricopa County at the moment, with 70% in, Amash is leading by a bare 1%. This is by far the most populous and fastest growing county in Arizona with nearly 5 million people. And lets take a look at the state's results thus far.

68% in

Gallego: 48.5%
Amash: 48.2%

Yeah, that's a close one. We probably won't be able to call that for a while. Lets show our viewers what's also going on in other states. Wisconsin for example. Can we pull that up?

84% in

Amash: 50.6%
Gallego: 48.8%

Lets also get Michigan up...

90% in

Amash: 49.9%
Gallego: 49.2%

And Minnesota now...

81% in

Amash: 51.4%
Gallego: 47.2%

Melber: There you have it folks, a stalled presidential election!

Hayes: After the break, polls will close in the critical state of Alaska (*laughs*) and we will update you on any information that will futher the presidential and senatorial elections. Stay tuned.

Maddow: It is Midnight on the east coast and polls have closed in the final closing, Alaska. Right now we can project that Governor Justin Amash will win the state of Alaska and its 3 electoral votes. Not surprising considering Alaska has been voting Republican for nearly 70 years now.

Alaska

11% in

✔Amash: 60%
Gallego: 35%

()

Amash: 235
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 45
Too Close, unable to call: 33

We also have some critical calls in the two Senate races that were left out. NBC has projected that both seats, in Nevada and Wisconsin, have gone to the Democratic candidates. Two Republican incumbents have been defeated, including majority leader Sean Duffy (R-WI). This means that the Senate control is now dependent on the presidential race. If Ruben Gallego wins, the Senate is Democratic. If Justin Amash wins, the Senate is Republican.

()

Red - Democratic hold
Dark Red - Democratic gain
Blue - Republican hold
Dark Blue - Republican gain
Lime Green - Too close or too early

That is the finished Senate map. It is 50/50, with 6 Democratic gains, 2 Republicans gains, and net gain of 4 for Democrats.

(12:13 AM EST)

Maddow: We have an interruption on a very important call. In Minnesota we can project with enough precincts in that Governor Amash has won its 9 electoral votes.

85% in

✔Amash: 51%
Gallego: 47%

()

Amash: 244
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 36
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here's a look at the popular vote right now:

74% in

Amash: 49.9%
Gallego: 48.5%

As you can see, the popular vote gap is closing up as more of the west coast's precincts come in. There is also a possibility, in all this madness tonight, of the popular vote and the electoral college going against each other. This and the closeness of Florida may bring deja vu to our older watchers tonight of the 2000 election.

 - - dialogue between commentators - -

(12:17 AM EST)

Maddow: And we have another call in a Midwestern state. In the state of Wisconsin and its 9 electoral votes, it will be going to Governor Amash.

89% in

✔Amash: 50.2%
Gallego: 49.1%

()

Amash: 253
Gallego: 225
Too Close: 27
Too Close, unable to call: 33

We are getting reports that folks are cheering very loudly at Amash headquarters in Grand Rapids for these successive state wins. Despite that, the Gallego team is very confident the can squeak out either one of Michigan or Arizona, and Florida to get the 270 electoral votes they need.

On a seperate note, our team of analysits said in the past hour that they were quickly ready to project Michigan, but they have tooken it back, suggesting it is closer than expected.

(12:25 AM EST)

Maddow: Lets go to Steve Kornacki on these states that are still too close to call and break them down. Steve...

Kornacki: Ah yes, good old Michigan. Right now Michigan is sitting at about 93% of precincts reporting, and a 0.6% difference between the two candidates. Let's show the county map up here:

()

Dark Red: Amash >60%
Red: Amash <60%
Dark Blue: Gallego >60%
Blue: Gallego <60%

93% in

Amash: 49.9%
Gallego: 49.3%

So we got Detroit, Flint, Saginaw, Lansing areas going strong for Gallego. These are and were classic uniion voting blocs traditionally strong for Democrats. Problem is, the rural parts of the state are not going. We got several counties, including Kent County, where Amash's home district was when he served in the house, going over 60% for him. Not only that, the key suburbs of Oakland and Macomb counties, usually bellwethers, Amash has a 1-2% lead in each. Amash's team has told us they're confident about his home state, but its ironic that his home state and Gallego's home state are 2 out of the three states left that we can't call tonight.

()

In Arizona, this is amazing, Maricopa County is coming in very slightly for Gallego. This would be the first time this county went Democratic in nearly a century. In the state, there is more or less a 1-2% lead for Gallego with about 4/5ths of the vote in.

79% in

Gallego: 50.2%
Amash: 48.6%

Gallego and his team pushed the turnout hard in the most urban areas of Phoenix and Tucson, and they have told us that it is paying off in the past few minutes, where there has been a surge in Democratic votes. Maricopa County is nearly tied at 49% to 49%. It is important to remember that he only represented the most Democratic parts of the County in the House over a decade ago. In some other areas, he is doing better, such as Pima County where he is getting 56%. However, not so hot in other areas, like Yavapai County, where is getting a dismal 31%. It's really a mixed bag.

At the electoral vote standpoint we are at right now, Amash can win with both Arizona and Michigan, but Gallego absolutely has to win Florida and one other state. Its been over 100 years since a president got elected without their home state, so the fact that we're sitting here talking about this tonight is really something. Back to you, Rachel.

Maddow: Thank you for the informative insight. We will call both of these if or when we can.

(12:32 AM EST)

Hayes: We have breaking news, in Senator Gallego's home state of Arizona, the NBC has called it for Mr Gallego himself. This is a very important call now, as the election now completely depends on Florida's outcome tomorrow, that is if we get one tomorrow.

84% in

✔Gallego: 50.3%
Amash: 48.5%

()

Amash: 253
Gallego: 238
Too Close: 14
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here's a look at the popular vote at this time:

83% in

Amash: 49.5%
Gallego: 48.9%

As we can see that gap is starting to close as the strongly Democratic west coast comes in more and more.

 - - Fast forward to 1:00 AM EST - -

Our NBC team is done for tonight. Our nighttime fill-ins will be able to cover any result that has not come to us yet, most importantly Michigan and its 14 electoral votes. Tune in tomorrow morning to see the possible result of the Florida and the presidential race and the Senate. It has been a crazy election night and we hope that you stay tuned tomorrow.

(2:02 AM EST)

Farrow: It is 2:00 AM on the east coast and we can finally now call Michigan for the Governor of its state, Justin Amash. Its incredibly tight, but our experts say there's too much vote in for the result to change.

99.3% in

✔Amash: 49.7%
Gallego: 49.5%

()

Amash: 267
Gallego: 238
Too Close, unable to call: 33

Here is also a more mature look at the popular vote

92% in

Gallego: 49.4%
Amash: 49.0%

Now we'll have to wait until tomorrow morning to call Florida. As you can see, Gallego is leading in the popular vote, but what really matters is the electoral college. Amash is just 3 away from the 270 he needs, however if Gallego wins Florida he can get up to 271 electoral votes. If the popular vote numbers stay as they are now, and Amash wins Florida, he would win the election without the most votes. Senator Gallego campaigned against the electoral college, saying it was undemocratic. It could perhaps prove his point if that were to happen. Nevertheless, the presidential election as it stands now is stalled.

I want Gallego to win, but I'm almost entirely sure that Amash will win this TL...

Anyway, great job! And I can't wait to see the final results. :D

(7:00 AM EST)



Todd: Good morning, I'm Chuck Todd and today is November 5th, 2036. I'm reporting to you that the Florida Secretary of State has concluded the recount underway early this morning, and it is now found that Ruben Gallego has carried the state and its 33 electoral votes, putting his electoral tally at 271 and making him President-elect of the United States and Seth Moulton Vice President-elect of the United States.

100% in

✔Gallego: 49.41%
Amash: 49.26%

()

✔Gallego: 271
  Amash: 267

Here is the popular vote as it stands now with almost all the precincts across the country in:

99% in

Gallego: 49.6%
Amash: 48.9%

This presidential wins also means that the Senate will be held in Democratic hands.

✔Democrats: 50
  Republicans: 50

We also have a full result for you after last night in the House of Representatives. 4 races are still outstanding, but as of right now, this is the balance of power:

✔Republicans: 231
  Democrats: 198
  Independents: 2
  Undecided: 4

218 are needed to hold a majority. As you can see, Republicans are 13 above that requirement.

If you are waking up right now for the first time, you have heard the presidential result for the first time. None of the news networks could project Florida and therefore could not project the result of the presidential election. Both of the candidates went to sleep after 2:00 AM when Michigan was called for Amash. Arizona was called for Gallego an hour and a half earlier. We should be hearing from President-elect Gallego shortly.

Earlier this morning, however, there has been controversy over the call in Arizona. The call was made prior to the Phoenix Suburb of Gilbert even reporting any of its precincts. The suburb happens to be heavily Republican and mostly non-Hispanic white, and wealthy. The margin shrunk down to less than 1% in the margin of victory for Gallego. However, election team experts have sealed that up, in fact confirming Gallego has won Arizona.

99% in

✔Gallego: 49.6%
  Amash: 49.2%

Todd: While we are waiting however, lets take a look at some other critical states that were decided last night that may have made or broke the election.

In Colorado, in one of the last states to call, was called for Amash. The state is known for its libertarian reputation, and it was one of the friendliest states to Amash in the Republican primary, however there is also a strong progressive presence in places like Boulder and Denver. Amash narrowly carried it out.

100% in

✔Amash: 50.5%
Gallego: 47.7%

Georgia took a long time to call as well, and also in favor of Amash. The Democrats thought they were starting to lose the election when Georgia turned out not on their side, however they obviously won as we're discussing it this morning. Governor Carter tried to play an influential role in getting out the vote in young and urban precincts accross the state. That he did, but it was outnumbered by rural, exurban, older, white areas.

100% in

✔Amash: 50.7%
Gallego: 48.2%

In Illinois, the call was for Gallego. The strong urban turnout in Cook County propelled him to victory. This one was called earlier in the evening, however the results show it wasn't a sure bet for Gallego.

100% in

✔Gallego: 52.3%
Amash: 46.5%

Neighboring Illinois is Iowa, known for its dairy farming and Midwestern values, it decided to go for Amash, in a similar margin Illinois did for Gallego.

100% in

✔Amash: 53.0%
Gallego: 45.9%

In the small state of Maine, it was also close. Even though its only 3 electoral votes, the electoral tally is such a close victory that even this state would have tipped the balance of victory.

99% in

✔Gallego: 51.2%
Amash: 46.4%

Amash's home state of Michigan was no sure bet for him. Both of his elections for Governor were close, but this one was even closer, at a bare 1/5th of a percentage separating the two candidates.

100% in

✔Amash: 49.7%
Gallego: 49.5%

In Minnesota, Amash had a narrow victory as well, but unlike Michigan, it didn't take 5 hours to call the state. Despite Amash being against farm subsidies, he seems to have a mandate from the voters.

100% in

✔Amash: 51.5%
Gallego: 47.0%

Mississippi was seen as contested, however Amash ended up winning more easily in this inelastic state where little campaigning was done.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.8%
Gallego: 46.5%

In the west, we got Nevada. Amash capitalized on how the state's nonexistent income taxes were creating progress, however voters chose to not elect him president by almost a double digit margin.

98% in

✔Gallego: 54.1%
Amash: 44.4%

New Hampshire, another small state in the northeast like Maine, was close. But unlike Maine, New Hampshire went to Amash. Not surprisingly, it was one of Amash's best states in the Republican Primary.

100% in

✔Amash: 51.1%
Gallego: 47.4%

Down south to the South Atlantic, North Carolina is another inelastic state, going for Gallego however. Gallego pumped up numbers in the Research Triangle and explained how free higher education can make the US more prosperous. It seems to have worked.

100% in

✔Gallego: 51.6%
Amash: 47.8%

Ohio, located in America's Rustbelt where economic decline is real, Amash promoted economic "freedom zones". The idea was original created by former Senator Rand Paul in his three bids for the presidency. Ohio seemed to like that message.

100% in

✔Amash: 53.3%
Gallego: 45.7%

Pennsylvania to its east, has had even more of a decline than Ohio. It too went to Amash, despite traditionally strong urban numbers for Gallego in the Philadelphia area.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.0%
Gallego: 47.1%

South Carolina was called rather early in the night, though it was still considered contested and came in closer than many other battlegrounds.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.5%
Gallego: 46.8%

Texas, the second biggest state in the union, was too early to call before Amash won its 43 electoral votes. Vast swaths of rural and suburb area outnumbered the urban Democratic vote. Democrats have been trying to win Texas for years, but it didn't happen last night.

100% in

✔Amash: 52.4%
Gallego: 45.6%

Finally, in Wisconsin, Amash narrowly carried it out. Neighboring Michigan, Amash mostly relied on the native German areas of eastern Wisconsin.

100% in

✔Amash: 50.1%
Gallego: 49.1%

Todd: The important takeaways of this election are now being discussed. America is still more polarized than at any point in the past, split between libertarian conservatism and progressive liberalism. Experts perhaps see this as the millennial generation taking hold on American politics. Many are already casting this election as a turning point, where the parties are altered to where they were before.

Both candidates, Ruben Gallego and Justin Amash challenged the establishment's cause, and ran against them. Although the Republican brand has not entirely opened up to Amash's cause, last night's result prove that he won 49% of America's vote anyway. The Republican party is beginning to run more and more 'small government' candidates, as evangelicals and militarism become less and less of a presence. On the Democrat's end, Gallego had won the Democratic primary more easily, and the Democratic party opened up to more progressive and socialistic ideas years before, but that didn't mean he still didn't face challenges. Many of his colleagues in the house and senate refused to endorse him, and the DNC debated at one point trying to persuade his views in a direction more friendly to big banks and corporations. This 'progressive 2.0' movement existed in full, even going back to Hillary Clinton. The Young Turks, the online show with a powerful audience, was one of the key forces behind it. But last night, it won an election.

Will America now preside over a progressive future with a left wing leader, or will the movement fall short due to Congress, people rising up against it, or other unforeseen circumstances? That question is the question of the next four years in politics.

Yay! :D

(7:25 AM)

Todd: Ruben Gallego is said to come out in just a minute to speak at his campaign headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona...

*Loud Cheers*

Gallego: Good morning America! Thank you, thank you. After a long Tuesday night of disputes, recounts, and close races, it is finally over. We can celebrate, on this Wednesday morning, as this is a time of prosperity, equality, and justice. We have fought the countless fights of bringing honor and compassion back to the White House. I spoke with Governor Amash and credited him with running an energetic, consistent, and fluent campaign. He deserves honor for that, and I thanked him for it.

(later)... under previous administrations, we have not been able to achieve the goals that we have been waiting for. We have been waiting for free and fair elections, yet we have not gotten them. We have been waiting for rights to be given to the working people of this country, we have not gotten them. We have been waiting to improve our standing in the world not through the use of military force, but through strategic diplomacy. We have been waiting for an expansion of financial coverage for our sick, disabled, elderly, and poor Americans. We have been waiting for a lot of things, that I have pledged to do while in office. Ladies and gentlemen, we don't have to wait any longer! We cannot wait any longer, the time is now. We are in crisis as a nation, desperate for economic and political reform.

(later)... America, we have fought the long fight, and we have won. The first effort I will put in as president will be to bring true democracy to the United States, by getting money out of politics and pushing a popular vote order for presidential elections. We will do what the people elected us to do. That is, to hold us accountable, restore justice, peace, prosperity, and equality to the greatest country on Earth. Gold bless all of you and God bless America!

*Loud Cheers*

Todd: That was Senator Gallego's very passionate speech at Gallego headquarters in Phoenix. He seems thrilled to be President-elect. He has a very good ability to intertwine ideological rhetoric that could possibly be divisive with compassion and kindness. It is notable that Mr Gallego has been a vocal critic of the Murphy administration. Even though President Murphy has campaigned for him, it doesn't necessarily mean he has campaigned for Murphy. Murphy has been rather unpopular, so it is common that the incumbent party tries to distant themselves from the unpopular leader.

Coming up, we will see if Amash headquarters in Grand Rapids has a concession speech, we will get that to you when it occurs, stay with us.

(8:14 AM EST)

Todd: We are back on MSNBC the morning after election day. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona has become the President-elect of the United States. We are probably going to hear from Governor Justin Amash of Michigan soon. We have already heard Gallego's speech. It was very passionate and energetic, yet gracious at the same time.

 - - fast forward: 8:22 AM EST - -

Todd: Here is Amash at his headquarters in Grand Rapids, Michigan...

*Loud Cheers*

Amash: Thank you! Thank you! I can't thank the American people enough, for giving me this chance to run for the most powerful office in the world. It is an honor. Even though, we didn't get the result we wanted tonight, we had a very strong showing of liberty all across the country, and that can only mean great things are coming our way. About an hour ago, I spoke with Gallego and congratulated him on his victory and his dedication to America. I think he deserves a round of applause.

(later)...As President, I would've done away with the several departments of unneeded bureaucracy in the federal government, such as the Department of Education, Department of Energy, and Department of Education. I would've done away with spying that infringes upon the fourth amendment. I would've employed a non-interventionist foreign policy, not an isolationist one. I would've cut taxes for all Americans struggling to make ends meet. I would've advocated for a Balanced Budget Amendment, to stop the reckless spending. While many of these things we will inevitably not be able to do, President-elect Gallego will certainly bring us into another era in America, and we need to accept that.

(later)... Fellow Americans, the movement for liberty, limited government, and free markets had a very strong showing. This was a very close election, hence why I'm making this speech now instead of last night *audience laughs*. Many people thought we weren't electable, that we were out of the mainstream, that were naive and eccentric in our ways. 49% of the country proved them wrong last night by voting for the Amash/Bush ticket! And while I'm sad that I won't be President of the United States, I'm confident in America's future that we will bring common sense back to Washington. I thank every one of you for motivating me to run. Gold bless America!

*Loud Cheers*

Todd: That was Governor Amash's very confident and gracious speech at Amash headquarters in Grand Rapids. He had quite a happy tone for a presidential losing candidate. He said he was confident in the future, and that he was grateful just to run for president. It is notable that he fought many off in the Republican establishment just to run for President, and he was doubted by most at first. While some can say that he wasn't the best speaker of campaigner, he certainly was very bold and very brave.

FULL RESULTS

()

Ruben Gallego (D-AZ)/Seth Moulton (D-MA): 271, 49.7%
Justin Amash (R-MI)/George P Bush (R-TX): 267, 48.9%

Alabama:

✔Amash: 58.2%
Gallego: 41.1%

Alaska:

✔Amash: 57.7%
Gallego: 39.2%

Arizona:

✔Gallego: 49.6%
Amash: 49.2%

Arkansas:

✔Amash: 63.2%
Gallego: 34.8%

California:

✔Gallego: 62.3%
Amash: 36.5%

Colorado:

✔Amash: 50.5%
Gallego: 47.7%

Connecticut:

✔Gallego: 56.5%
Amash: 42.0%

Delaware:

✔Gallego: 59.6%
Amash: 39.6%

District of Columbia:

✔Gallego: 92.2%
Amash: 7.4%

Florida:

✔Gallego: 49.4%
Amash: 49.3%

Georgia:

✔Amash: 50.7%
Gallego: 48.2%

Hawaii:

✔Gallego: 62.5%
Amash: 36.4%

Idaho:

✔Amash: 64.0%
Gallego: 32.0%

Illinois:

✔Gallego: 52.3%
Amash: 46.5%

Indiana:

✔Amash: 59.6%
Gallego: 38.9%

Iowa:

✔Amash: 53.0%
Gallego: 45.9%

Kansas:

✔Amash: 61.9%
Gallego: 37.2%

Kentucky:

✔Amash: 63.7%
Gallego: 35.2%

Louisiana:

✔Amash: 57.5%
Gallego: 42.0%

Maine:

✔Gallego: 51.3%
Amash: 46.4%

Maryland:

✔Gallego: 64.0%
Amash: 33.3%

Massachusetts:

✔Gallego: 61.3%
Amash: 37.9%

Michigan:

✔Amash: 49.7%
Gallego: 49.5%

Minnesota:

✔Amash: 51.5%
Gallego: 47.0%

Mississippi:

✔Amash: 52.8%
Gallego: 46.5%

Missouri:

✔Amash: 57.2%
Gallego: 41.9%

Montana:

✔Amash: 59.3%
Gallego: 38.8%

Nebraska:

✔Amash: 62.4%
Gallego: 37.0%

Nevada:

✔Gallego: 54.2%
Amash: 44.2%

New Hampshire:

✔Amash: 51.1%
Gallego: 47.4%

New Jersey:

✔Gallego: 55.6%
Amash: 43.9%

New Mexico:

✔Gallego: 53.5%
Amash: 44.9%

New York:

✔Gallego: 60.4%
Amash: 38.5%

North Carolina:

✔Gallego: 51.6%
Amash: 47.8%

North Dakota:

✔Amash: 61.1%
Gallego: 37.2%

Ohio:

✔Amash: 53.3%
Gallego: 45.7%

Oklahoma:

✔Amash: 65.9%
Gallego: 34.1%

Oregon:

✔Gallego: 57.0%
Amash: 40.3%

Pennsylvania:

✔Amash: 52.0%
Gallego: 47.1%

Rhode Island:

✔Gallego: 61.8%
Amash: 37.6%

South Carolina:

✔Amash: 52.5%
Gallego: 46.8%

South Dakota:

✔Amash: 60.1%
Gallego: 38.6%

Tennessee:

✔Amash: 61.5%
Gallego: 36.9%

Texas:

✔Amash: 52.4%
Gallego: 45.6%

Utah:

✔Amash: 63.8%
Gallego: 35.0%

Vermont:

✔Gallego: 67.7%
Amash: 31.3%

Virginia:

✔Gallego: 55.2%
Amash: 44.1%

Washington:

✔Gallego: 60.0%
Amash: 38.6%

West Virginia:

✔Amash: 65.2%
Gallego: 32.9%

Wisconsin:

✔Amash: 50.1%
Gallego: 49.1%

Wyoming:

✔Amash: 70.9%
Gallego: 26.6%

County Maps

()

Red: Amash
Blue: Gallego

()

Dark Red: Amash >70%
Medium Red: Amash 60-70%
Light Red: Amash <60%
Light Blue: Gallego <60%
Medium Blue: Gallego 60-70%
Dark Blue: Gallego >70%

"Historical" Presidential Results

2016

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Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Cory Booker (D-NJ): 294, 50.1%
Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Carly Fiorina (R-CA): 244, 48.3%

2020

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Scott Walker (R-WI)/Nikki Haley (R-SC): 396, 53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Cory Booker (D-NJ): 142, 42.3%

2020 Census Changes

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2024

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Scott Walker (R-WI)/Nikki Haley (R-SC): 307, 51.5%
Joe Kennedy (D-MA)/Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 231, 47.8%

2028

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Patrick Murphy (D-FL)/Joaquin Castro (D-TX): 334, 49.9%
Rand Paul (R-KY)/Carlos Curbelo (R-FL): 204, 48.8%

2032

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Patrick Murphy (D-FL)/Joaquin Castro (D-TX): 349, 52.2%
Tom Cotton (R-AR)/Duncan Hunter (R-CA): 189, 47.0%

Very, very well done!  It obviously didn't become as relevant as I thought, but I would be interested to know the 2036 SCOTUS composition?

It's surprising how similar the maps look to 2008-12 in the South, when the margins have changed by 5% or more in some places.

Elena Kagan - appointed by Obama
Sonia Sotomayor - appointed by Obama
John Roberts - appointed by Bush
Ginsburg replacement - appointed by Clinton
Scalia replacement - apponted by Clinton
Kennedy replacement - apointed by Walker
Breyer replacement - appointed by Walker
Alito replacement - appointed by Murphy
Thomas replacement - appointed by Murphy

So, probably a left-leaning court?

It would certainly be interesting if the sitting justices retired with that little regard for the president's ideology!  Based on senate control, I have to imagine all of the bolded ones would have to be quite moderate.  If Kennedy stepped down under unified R control, I could see them confirming someone like Scalia to his seat in revenge for Clinton flipping the court.  Also, I have to imagine Roberts would drift noticeably right on a 6D/3R appointed court.   

Very good so far. Interesting that the last remaining Democratic foothold in white rural America, eastern Iowa/southwestern Wisconsin/southeastern Minnesota/northwestern Illinois, is breaking up and starting to go red.