Title: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: dudeabides on August 16, 2015, 10:15:24 PM Pretend it's the summer prior to elections 1960-2012. Try to pretend you don't know the outcome and you are predicting the election results. What would you predict?
Discuss with maps. I'll go first: 1960: Richard Nixon (R) 52% 288 EV John F. Kennedy (D) 47% 249 EV () 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 57% 395 EV Barry Goldwater (R) 42% 143 EV () 1968: Richard Nixon (R) 55% 337 EV Hubert Humphrey (D) 42% 191 EV George Wallace (I) 3% 10 EV () 1972: Richard Nixon (R) 59% 440 EV George McGovern (D) 40% 98 EV () 1976: Gerald R. Ford (R) 51% 295 EV Jimmy Carter (D) 48% 243 EV () 1980: Ronald Reagan (R) 58% 475 EV Jimmy Carter (D) 41% 63 EV () 1984: Ronald Reagan (R) 65% 525 EV Walter Mondale (D) 34% 13 EV () 1988: George Bush (R) 53% 314 EV Michael Dukakis (D) 46% 224 EV () 1992: Bill Clinton (R) 35% 298 EV George Bush (R) 34% 189 EV Ross Perot (I) 30% 51 EV () 1996: Bill Clinton (D) 51% 332 EV Bob Dole (R) 43% 206 EV Ross Perot (I) 6% 0 EV () 2000: Al Gore (D) 51% 278 EV George W. Bush (R) 48% 260 EV () 2004: George W. Bush (R) 55% 311 EV John Kerry (D) 44% 227 EV () 2008: Barack Obama (D) 52% 307 EV John McCain (R) 47% 231 EV () 2012: Barack Obama (D) 50% 281 EV Mitt Romney (R) 49% 257 EV () Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: OSR stands with Israel on August 17, 2015, 01:57:55 PM 1960-1984 on here
1960 () Nixon 296 51% JFK 241 48% 1964 () LBJ 516 66% Goldwater 22 33% 1968 () Nixon 364 51% Humphrey 163 40% Wallace 17 8% 1972 () Nixon 507 60% McGovern 31 39% 1976(Ford as nominee) () Carter 357 54% Ford 181 45% 1976(Reagan as nominee) () Reagan 271 49.8% Carter 267 49.7% 1980 () Reagan 418 54% Carter 120 40% Anderson 0 5% 1984: () Reagan 535 66% Mondale 3 33% Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: dudeabides on August 17, 2015, 03:27:29 PM 1960-1984 on here 1960 () Nixon 296 51% JFK 241 48% 1964 () LBJ 516 66% Goldwater 22 33% 1968 () Nixon 364 51% Humphrey 163 40% Wallace 17 8% 1972 () Nixon 507 60% McGovern 31 39% 1976(Ford as nominee) () Carter 357 54% Ford 181 45% 1976(Reagan as nominee) () Reagan 271 49.8% Carter 267 49.7% 1980 () Reagan 418 54% Carter 120 40% Anderson 0 5% 1984: () Reagan 535 66% Mondale 3 33% Awesome! Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: OSR stands with Israel on August 17, 2015, 03:57:05 PM Now for 1992 -2012
1992 () Clinton 260 35% Bush 209 33% Perot 69 31% 1996 () Clinton 416 53% Dole 122 38% Perot 0 7% 2000 () Gore 296 50% Bush 242 49% 2004 () Bush 301 52% Kerry 237 47% 2008 () Obama 311 51% Mccain 227 48% 2012 () Obama 272 49.3% Romney 266 49.5% Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on August 17, 2015, 04:19:36 PM 1960
Nixon (R) over Kennedy (D) Reasoning: Ike's popularity, Nixon's performance in the Kitchen Debate, and Kennedy's inexperience all give the GOP an edge. 1964 Johnson (D) over Goldwater (R) Reasoning: Goldwater was too far to the right and Johnson had the momentum of the Civil Rights Movement behind him. 1968 Nixon (R) over Humphrey (D) Reasoning: The Democrats are divided over Vietnam, the DNC was a disaster, and the Solid South is breaking up. 1972 Nixon (R) over McGovern (D) Reasoning: I would have been supporting McGovern, but he never had a chance. 1976 Carter (D) over Ford (R) Reasoning: High inflation and the stigma of Watergate make for a Democratic pickup. 1980 Carter (D) over Reagan (R) Reasoning: The polls indicate a tight race midsummer in spite of Carter's weaknesses, Anderson has the potential to steal moderate Republican votes from Reagan, and Reagan's policies are similar to Goldwater's. Needless to say I would have been unpleasantly surprised. 1984 Reagan (R) over Mondale (D) Reasoning: Mondale ran a weak campaign and Reagan ran a strong one. 1988 Bush (R) over Dukakis (D) Reasoning: Reagan is popular and Dukakis isn't ready for the national spotlight. 1992 Clinton (D) over Bush (R) Reasoning: Like Carter, Bush had early foreign policy successes that were obscured by a poor economy and faces a charismatic challenger in the general election. 1996 Clinton (D) over Dole (R) Reasoning: The GOP took the heat for the government shutdown, and Clinton has long since cemented his reputation as the "comeback kid". 2000 Gore (D) over Bush (R) Reasoning: The economy is good and Gore had a much easier path to the nomination than Bush, and so is seemingly "stronger". 2004 Kerry (D) over Bush (R) Reasoning: A combination of Kerry's polling lead and my personal dislike for Bush would have led me to project a Democratic victory. 2008 Obama (D) over McCain (R) Reasoning: The economy is terrible, McCain's pro-war stance is ripe for attack, and Obama has the momentum. 2012 Obama (D) over Romney (R) Reasoning: The economy is getting better, foreign policy is going well, the polls show Obama leading heavily, and the primaries showed that even Republicans have their doubts about Romney. Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: MATTROSE94 on August 18, 2015, 08:39:30 AM I decided to add 1948-1956 to my list, so here is 1948-1984:
1948: () Thomas Dewey: 355 EV (51%) Harry Truman: 138 EV (36%) Strom Thurmond: 38 EV (8%) Henry Wallace: 0 EV (4%) 1952: () Dwight Eisenhower: 454 EV (57%) Adlai Stevenson: 77 EV (42%) 1956: () Dwight Eisenhower: 492 EV (60%) Adlai Stevenson: 39 EV (39%) 1960: () Richard Nixon: 290 EV (51%) John F. Kennedy: 228 EV (48%) Unpledged Electors: 19 EV (1%) 1964: () Lyndon Johnson: 397 EV (65%) Barry Goldwater: 141 EV (34%) 1968: () Richard Nixon: 319 EV (42%) Hubert Humphrey: 147 EV (40%) George Wallace: 72 EV (18%) 1972: () Richard Nixon: 439 EV (61%) George McGovern: 99 EV (37%) 1976: () Jimmy Carter: 369 EV (53%) Gerald Ford: 169 EV (45%) 1980: () Ronald Reagan: 366 EV (50%) Jimmy Carter: 172 EV (41%) John Anderson: 0 EV (6%) 1984: () Ronald Reagan: 452 EV (62%) Walter Mondale: 86 EV (36%) Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: MATTROSE94 on August 18, 2015, 08:53:36 AM Here is 1988-2012:
1988: () George H.W. Bush: 351 EV (52%) Michael Dukakis: 187 EV (46%) 1992: () Bill Clinton: 341 EV (36%) George H.W. Bush: 124 EV (34%) Ross Perot: 73 EV (30%) 1996: () Bill Clinton: 440 EV (52%) Bob Dole: 98 EV (38%) Ross Perot 0 EV (10%) 2000: () Al Gore: 281 EV (50%) George W. Bush: 257 EV (49%) 2004: () John Kerry: 312 EV (51%) George W. Bush: 226 EV (47%) 2008: () Barack Obama: 307 EV (53%) John McCain: 231 EV (45%) 2012: () Barack Obama: 291 EV (52%) Mitt Romney: 247 EV (46%) Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: mencken on August 18, 2015, 09:12:29 PM 1960: ()
1964: () 1968: () 1972: () 1976: () 1980: () 1984: () 1988: () 1992: () 1996: () 2000: () 2004: () 2008: () 2012: () Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: NeverAgain on August 18, 2015, 09:35:47 PM mencken... OP said before the elections... Not copy pasting actual election results :P
Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: mencken on August 18, 2015, 10:30:10 PM mencken... OP said before the elections... Not copy pasting actual election results :P I'm sorry that I am a better hindsight prognosticator than some people here. Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: dudeabides on August 19, 2015, 09:48:09 AM I love this, thanks everyone!
1960 Nixon (R) over Kennedy (D) Reasoning: Ike's popularity, Nixon's performance in the Kitchen Debate, and Kennedy's inexperience all give the GOP an edge. 1964 Johnson (D) over Goldwater (R) Reasoning: Goldwater was too far to the right and Johnson had the momentum of the Civil Rights Movement behind him. 1968 Nixon (R) over Humphrey (D) Reasoning: The Democrats are divided over Vietnam, the DNC was a disaster, and the Solid South is breaking up. 1972 Nixon (R) over McGovern (D) Reasoning: I would have been supporting McGovern, but he never had a chance. 1976 Carter (D) over Ford (R) Reasoning: High inflation and the stigma of Watergate make for a Democratic pickup. 1980 Carter (D) over Reagan (R) Reasoning: The polls indicate a tight race midsummer in spite of Carter's weaknesses, Anderson has the potential to steal moderate Republican votes from Reagan, and Reagan's policies are similar to Goldwater's. Needless to say I would have been unpleasantly surprised. 1984 Reagan (R) over Mondale (D) Reasoning: Mondale ran a weak campaign and Reagan ran a strong one. 1988 Bush (R) over Dukakis (D) Reasoning: Reagan is popular and Dukakis isn't ready for the national spotlight. 1992 Clinton (D) over Bush (R) Reasoning: Like Carter, Bush had early foreign policy successes that were obscured by a poor economy and faces a charismatic challenger in the general election. 1996 Clinton (D) over Dole (R) Reasoning: The GOP took the heat for the government shutdown, and Clinton has long since cemented his reputation as the "comeback kid". 2000 Gore (D) over Bush (R) Reasoning: The economy is good and Gore had a much easier path to the nomination than Bush, and so is seemingly "stronger". 2004 Kerry (D) over Bush (R) Reasoning: A combination of Kerry's polling lead and my personal dislike for Bush would have led me to project a Democratic victory. 2008 Obama (D) over McCain (R) Reasoning: The economy is terrible, McCain's pro-war stance is ripe for attack, and Obama has the momentum. 2012 Obama (D) over Romney (R) Reasoning: The economy is getting better, foreign policy is going well, the polls show Obama leading heavily, and the primaries showed that even Republicans have their doubts about Romney. You have given me some things to think about. I keep forgetting that Anderson was a Republican and Carter was in okay shape before the fall of 1980. Where I disagree, however, is 2004. I stand by my Bush +11 win because the economy was in recovery for 18 months or more and the President had the "rally around the flag effect." I would even give Bush a larger percentage had he performed better in the debates and had Iraq been as popular in 2004 as it was in 2003. I think there generally seems to be some consensus here that we all would have thought 1992 would have been closer than it was. Had Perot not dropped out and brought up a conspiracy theory to justify ending his campaign in the summer of 1992, he probably would have made it even closer. What's interesting is, at the time, there was a school of thought that Bush would win re-election. I think there also seems to be consensus that everyone would know LBJ, Nixon, Clinton, and Reagan were going to win re-election - that is pretty consistent with what people actually felt in those years. Title: Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections Post by: Clark Kent on August 19, 2015, 11:04:00 AM 1960:
Nixon/Lodge (R) def. Kennedy/Johnson (D) () 1964: Johnson/Humphrey (D) def. Goldwater/Miller (R), Barnett/Wallace (SD) () 1968: Nixon/Agnew (R) def. Humphrey/Muskie (D), Wallace/LeMay (AIP) () 1972: Nixon/Agnew (R) def. McGovern/Shriver (D) () 1976: Carter/Mondale (D) def. Ford/Dole (R) () 1980: Reagan/Bush (R) def. Carter/Mondale (D), Anderson/Lucey (I) () 1984: Reagan/Bush (R) def. Mondale/Ferraro (D) () 1988: Bush/Quayle (R) def. Dukakis/Bentsen (D) () 1992: Bush/Quayle (R) def. Clinton/Gore (D), Perot/Stockdale (I) () 1996: Clinton/Gore (D) def. Dole/Kemp (R) () 2000: Gore/Lieberman (D) def. Bush/Cheney (R) () 2004: Bush/Cheney (R) def. Kerry/Edwards (D) () 2008: Obama/Biden (D) def. McCain/Palin (R) () 2012: Obama/Biden (D) def. Romney/Ryan (R) () |