Talk Elections

Do you see Republicans gaining seats in NJ Assembly this November ? this is Christie's second term midterm legislative election. Ultimate   Assembly composition?  

Assembly remains unchanged at 48D-32R.

I guess Christie's bilan will hurt NJ republicans?

The only time a can think of when a NJ governor's unpopularity visibly hurt their party in the offyear was Florio in 1990 and 1991.

NJ is far too gerrymandered. I'd be shocked if every single incumbent didn't win - again.

Yes, as I understand it, when Christie won re-election in 2013, the Republicans actually got more votes than Democrats in state legislative races (total votes of all districts).  Yet 48 - 32 and 42 - 16 line-ups were unchanged.  It must be a powerfully strong gerrymander.

I think it will be 48-32 or 47-33 Democratic Majority.

In State Assembly District 2 I think Mazzeo could lose if voters who voted Amodeo out switch back to GOPer Will Pauls.

Republicans won more votes than Democrats in legislative elections in 2013, when the Governor won 60% of the vote. The GOP won 53% of the votes cast in legislative races that year. The districts are gerrymandered and Christie's approval is well below 50%. So, no.

If NJ Republicans were to sue over the gerrymander, who exactly would be the respondent here? Could Christie or an appointee just choose to either give a poor defence or none at all and get it thrown out?

I live in NJ. Democrats will likely keep the Assembly, in a low turnout election. I have not seen any bumper stickers, no yard signs, no TV/radio ads, very low turnout. Pathetic for democracy.

I won't deny the map favors Democrats, but the real factor here is turnout being so much lower in city districts than in Republican exurban districts.

Oh cool, just like the 2012 US House elections, when the Democrats won 1.4 million more votes than Republicans, who won 33 more seats than the Dems.  Sucks, don't it?