Talk Elections

In the face of our fifth Prime Minister in just over 5 years... let's start afresh.

#shortenforpm

So, which of these clowns doesn't make it out of the cabinet reshuffle alive?

The humiliating parade of Hockey, Andrews, Abetz - all good bets.  Peter Dutton - I'm crossing my fingers!!

To clarify

Kevin Rudd - November 2007 - June 2010
Julia Gillard - June 2010 - June 2013
Kevin Rudd - June - September 2013
Tony Abbott - September 2013 - September 2015
Malcolm Turnbull - September 2015 - ???

As an outside observer...what is it with the Australian propensity for party coups?

It's so quick and easy to do.

...lol

I'm curious to see polling now.

There will be a sugar-hit. I would expect a rapid tightening.

So is Abbott going to repeat what Rudd did in 2010-2013 and work to undermine Turnbull so he can pull of a counter-coup ?

Yeah the old one was almost 400 posts about Dave's preferred 2000 limited, but the name of this one should be 2.0 or something, not 2015-discussion. I doubt we will have 2000 posts in the rest of the year, although you never know with the way things are going ;)

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Good idea, but it was meant to read as 2015- like 2015-to ?

But it didn't look like it.

As I said in the other thread.

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Turnbull seems like less of an Australian GW Bush than Abbott. Is this perception correct?

Yes, Turnbull is certainly more charismatic and gives across a much more competent seeming style.  Whether there will be any change in the policies, I wouldn't hold out for much.

Turnbull is a bad man and I hope he loses.

Great news!

Hopefully he'll be like Keating and not hold back his arrogance.

Well, at least Abbott is gone.

So time to update this then?

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We've had 6 leaders of Scottish Labour within that time frame too ;)

And good riddance.

I think the 5 PMs in 8 years thing is counting John Howard (March 1996-December 2007) because December 2007 was less than 8 years ago, and Kevin Rudd counts as one person.

Looks like Turnbull will be sworn in today, so Abbott was PM for 1 year, 362 days- the shortest tenure since Billy McMahon (1971-1972).

Ironically, he ended up being the 4th longest serving leader of the Liberal Party, with almost 6 years at the helm. He was only behind Menzies, Howard, and Fraser.

...Of course I suspect Turnbull will be the longest serving PM since Howard, and probably last at least the rest of the decade.

Put it this way. I think Turnbull will need to change from his last, pretty catastrophic reign as leader. Let's see how he goes for the first full day before these declarations.

So Abbott has still yet to go to the Governor General.

Well, he's officially spoken.

Did he actually make any mention of Turnbull?

Nope. Clearly he thinks the only reason he's no longer PM is the media happily reporting leaks.

Yeah, that was pretty predictable of him.

Malcolm Turnbull has officially been sworn in as Australia's 29th Prime Minister.

The first Question Time since the spill has been delayed to 2:30 pm.

Abbott not present at Question Time today.

Turnbull is not doing well in QT.

Yep, this is very flat on the government benches.

What's not helping is that the Cabinet is basically a rump that's waiting around until the reshuffle over the weekend.  Hockey in particular having to respond to Turnbull's evisceration of him yesterday is very odd.

Oh, missed this earlier, Eric Abetz said this in the Senate earlier:


He's obviously trying to keep his position, but my how quickly loyalties change! ;D

I thought Turnbull spoke with more enthusiasm and vigor than Abbott had in any recent QT.

It's the MPs on his benches who need to get in line.

I thought he was waffling and his answer on SSM was ABOMINABLE.

I'm watching that now...bring back Abbott.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6451-australia-better-pm-turnbull-shorten-september-15-2015-201509150557

Better PM:

Malcolm: 70
Bill: 24

ffs

It's a sweet sugar hit... Let's calm down.

This isn't about next week or next month, it's about next year (apparently)

it was also a poll done by SMS and in 24hrs.

Turnbull will probably lead those particular polls against Bill Shorten for quite a while.

Reports that Dutton has resigned, but Turbull has yet to accept it.

Dutton resigns what? Cabinet, the party, the House?

...The Cabinet obviously. The PM doesn't have to accept a resignation from the party or the House.

First poll of the Turnbull era has a bounce, albeit a relatively muted one.

LNP - 50% (+3)
ALP - 50% (-3)

What is the chance Shorty gets routed?

It'd take an election loss.

Very unlikely given the new rules.

Nor should we.

Di Natale take advantage of Turnballmania to clean up some  troublemakers of his own. (http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/national/2015/09/15/greens-reshuffle-while-all-eyes-on-pm.html)

Shorten's problem is his speech ability and the fact that he was intrinsic in toppling 2 PMs. Aside from that he's got some pretty good ideas and having met the guy he's quite nice. I think he'd make a surprisingly good PM and is quite underrated.

Absolutely - I think there's is as much opportunity for Shorten with this elevation as there are complications.

I think the way Labor are handling Turnbull is completely sensible. The thing that the party room doesn't understand is that people want Turnbull to do different thing and pursue a more moderate platform ... Not be a more effective spokesperson for the same policies. The best arguments against Turnbull are about his authenticity and credibility.

Mark my words, Turnbull will be a challenge but he's not the saviour on a white charger he's being made out to be. He's made some big compromises (including on some core issues) and pissed off the right-wing of his party for even doing this. Include the clear expectations of him from the left and the centre and he's got a hell of a juggling act - especially with a tougher economic environment.

Remember what Keating said to Rudd about Turnbull "he's brilliant, he's fearless, but he's got no judgement"

Rumors flying around now that Hockey is going to take over Turnbull's communications portfolio.

There are further reports of Morrison getting Treasury, Pyne going to Defense, and Michaelia Cash nabbing Immigration.

I feel like Turnbull has some room to act on his more progressive instincts in six months time once he's solidified his position, or until after the next election.

I wouldn't be surprised if he did move forward the date of the gay marriage plebiscite, for example.

He is probably grandstanding, but hardline rightwing South Australia Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi is not ruling out forming a new conservative party. And he has the support of Melbourne-based shock jock Andrew Bolt.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cory-bernardi-doesnt-rule-out-quitting-the-liberal-party-following-malcolm-turnbulls-elevation-20150915-gjnjkr.html

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Also, Abbott has announced he will not resign from Parliament.

In other news, a seal has been spotted riding a whale off the NSW coast.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/seal-rides-on-the-back-of-a-whale-on-the-nsw-south-coast-20150916-gjo732.html

Tbh nowadays ego demands every senator will eventually form their own party.

Also, senator Ian MacDonald (another notorious fruitcake, maybe Bernardi will take him) is in trouble for telling a Scottish accented senator to "learn how to speak Australian". Will the SNP declare war?


And that was the greatest day of that seals life :')

Was that Doug Cameron he was referring to? How dare he, Doug is wonderful.

Also I love how the right-wing shock jocks are in meltdown that their beloved Tony was replaced by a somewhat more progressive member of the same conservative party. It's not unlike the attitude of the Tea Party in the US.

A guy named Ian MacDonald complaining about a Scottish accent?

Aaaaaand we get out first leak against the new PM.

Turnbull apparently not that keen on promoting women. (http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leaked-document-tars-malcolm-turnbull-as-worst-minister-on-appointing-women-20150916-gjoh3o.html)

Growing rumors about Bernardi's plans to jump ship.  It's of little importance of course, but he has just changed his description on Twitter from "Liberal Senator" to "Conservative Senator."  Who knows, but we do live in strange times...

As a Canadian who shares the same British Parliamentary tradition, I am completely perplexed by this weird Aussie habit of party coups. This type of stuff has never happened to a Canadian PM in a really long time.

This seems to have been a false alarm, but as we all know the age of social media has brought a new dimension to the political game!

I wonder how a 'Conservative Party' led by Cory f**king Bernardi would do.

:0 (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/young-liberals-meeting-boils-over-as-verbal-clashes-turn-physical-on-night-of-leadership-spill-20150917-gjotc7.html)

My spies suggest a move to Family First is more likely than creating his own party.

Yup.

Very nice write-up by the Financial Review: the faceless men who stalked Abbott and made Turnbull king (http://www.afr.com/news/politics/ambush-the-faceless-men-who-stalked-abbott-and-made-turnbull-king-20150916-gjoj7h?btis)

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Turnbull's Cabinet is expected to be announced either this weekend or on Monday.

His backers are tipped to be rewarded, some of Abbott's Praetorian Guard are expected to be moved on and more women are favoured to be appointed. The following new appointments have been suggested in the media

Treasurer: Scott Morrison
Minister of Defence: Christopher Pyne
Minister of Employment: Arthur Sinodinos
Minister of Immigration: Michaelia Cash
Minister of Communications: Joe Hockey

Ministers expected to be retained in their roles include

Minister of Foreign Affairs: Julie Bishop
Minister of Environment: Greg Hunt
Attorney-General: George Brandis (perhaps could be promoted to Leader of the Government in the Senate)
Minister of Health: Sussan Ley
Minister of Trade: Andrew Robb

Apparently Abbott's office won't handover the internal mailing system that it employed, forcing a new one to be established in Simon Birmingham's office.

Perhaps a taste of the "loyal back bencher" that is yet to come?

Also, apparently Turnbull is still working out of his old Communications office as Abbott's staff won't relinquish the PM's office until Saturday.  So the incumbent PM has had no access to his office or to his official diary since taking office.

Huh!
And I thought we had the record.

Who is the minister for women!? As I'm sure we are all asking.

Putting this here solely for the laughs; someone snapped this today in Canning.  Haha. ;D

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LOL

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/tony-abbott-goes-topless-at-wild-farewell-party-after-being-ousted-by-new-pm-malcolm-turnbull/story-fnii5s3y-1227535045623

Hahahah.

Reminds me of when Gillard and Swanny got sauced in the Lodge after Rudd came back in 2013.

Pic?

It was nothing controversial. They were just firing up the staff at the Lodge over several glasses of wine and sharing jokes about their term. There is an iPhone video of it floating around the internet.

Edit: Here (http://youtu.be/tRJ0-nyVkwg) is some of it.

It may just be because it was uploaded by Swan himself, but the only remotely interesting thing about that clip was that they were holding glasses of wine.

Again that was a tiny clip.  Apparently Swanny said he and Gillard should get pissed in the afternoon the next day, so lol.

Turnbull to announce the new Ministry at 3pm, so in about 50 mins.

Ah, great. I was having trouble finding a specific time for the event today.

Rumours the reshuffle is going to be a lot more significant than expected.

Kevin Andrews is holding a press conference. Sounds like it's confirming he's being moved on as Defence Minister.

He referred to Turnbull as 'Mr Turnbull' and to Abbott as 'Prime Minister Abbott' lol.

He sounded like a f***ing child.

Andrews also confirmed that he'll be recontesting his seat at the next election.

Out of sheer spite

Indeed! Just think Bronwyn Bishop, Abbott, Andrews, and who knows who else sticking around? The show goes on!

The Ministry announcement has been scheduled for 3:40.

It's certainly appearing the reshuffle will be much bigger than anticipated.

Hockey will be resigning from Parliament.

Treasurer: Scott Morrison
Minister of Industry, Innovation and Science: Christopher Pyne
Minister of Defence: Marise Payne
Minister of Employment and Minister of Women: Michaelia Cash
Assistant Treasurer and Minister of Small Business: Kelly O'Dwyer
Minister of Communications and Minister of Arts: Mitch Fifield
Minister of Education: Simon Birmingham
Minister of Resources, Energy and Northern Australia: Josh Frydenberg
Minister of Social Services: Christian Porter
Cabinet Secretary: Arthur Sinodinos

These are the biggest changes

Steve Ciobo is Minister for Int. Development. He was purged from the Shadow Cabinet when Abbott originally won leadership.

So dutton remains?

Yes, that surprises me a bit to be honest.

It pains me to say, outside of Dutton remaining (I think the difference being Hockey and Andrews campaigned for their jobs, Dutton offered to go), this is a pretty good Ministry. The thing to remember, this is the Turnbull Cabinet. So his rhetoric about the Cabinet being the ones to consult and change on policy?

Turnbull  certainly seems to be very reform minded and his theme is definitely about innovation and the future. He has indicated there will be policy changes, so I'm interested to see what they are exactly.

Joe Hockey is resigning from parliament, creating a byelection in North Sydney.

Apparently he is soon expected to be named Ambassador to the U.S., replacing Kim Beazley.

In other news, Knights and Dames are being scrapped!

Turnbull's new ministry being sworn in.

Why Turnbull doesn't simply kick him out of the caucus?

Because that would be a needlessly antagonistic move in a party already dealing with internal infighting.

And by not wanting him anywhere except the backbench he's made it very clear.

In other news, that LOSER Andrew Bolt is continuing his hatchetjob on the new PM, pretending that he has not provided a dramatic change in the government's fortunes. He, Cory Bernardi, and Alan Jones should really be put in a chaff bag and thrown in the Tasman Sea, to use the latter's words! They are already trying to bring down Turnbull and cannot handle his success.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/new-prime-minister-is-malcolm-turnbull-the-liberal-partys-julia-gillard/story-fnj45fva-1227535945680

Bronwyn Bishop confirmed to have abandoned Abbott last week over Choppergate. (http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/bronwyn-bishop-voted-against-tony-abbott-because-hed-forced-her-out-as-speaker/story-fni0cx12-1227537704902?nk=95a83ea2aa569cf8377f2e855cc82205-1442870140)

lol

Beyond embarrassing, and I say that as a strong Turnbull supporter. The only reason she ever became Speaker after her failed career in parliament was Abbott's personal friendship with her; he stood up for her again and again, even when literally almost everyone (including Turnbull) wanted to triage her ASAP during Choppergate.

Looks like she's getting an earful from the local party though! I hope she's deselected; she should retire, but her ego won't let her.


http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/21/tony-abbott-party-resignations-and-bad-blood-in-liberal-heartland-after-coup

She really did owe Abbott her support, since she was one of the primary reasons his leadership collapsed.

Looks like she'll leave politics hated by both sides and rightfully so.

Talleyrand wtf is going on?

I've switched my (previously reluctant) support for the inept and feckless Labor Party under Sleazy Shorten to the Malcolm Turnbull's Liberals. He is a proven success story and fierce fighter for the downtrodden who will be a unifying leader for Australia after the disgrace of Abbott. He will make the country a Republic, pass gay marriage, enforce a balanced budget, have a reasonable immigration policy, take on the union bosses, and make progress in the fight against climate change.

As Keating said, the man is absolutely brilliant and absolutely fearless. I suspect he will be PM for quite some time to come (possibly a decade or more, at least 5 years) and bring dignity back into the public sphere after the utter disgrace that has been the last 5-6 years.

I look forward to his landslide victory within the year.

You left out the "no judgement" part.

Turnbull has consistently shown excellent judgment in his personal, political, and business life. Keating is a good judge of character, but that was an instance of him trying to score cheap political points.

I like Turnbull a lot as a person, he is a serious improvement from Abbott. While I am cautiously optimistic that he'll improve government policy, I would need to see serious change in the Liberal Party policies towards welfare, education, industrial relations etc. before considering supporting them as a party, even under his leadership.

Newly appointed Special Minister of State Mal Brough plans to proceed with the proposed Senate voting reforms before the next election (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-22/leyonhjlem-threatens-crossbench-war-over-senate-voting/6794928); Liberal Democrat Senator David Leyonhjelm has promised "outright war" from the crossbench if he does so.  

If this does get passed by the end of the Parliament it will be a wonderful series of reforms to the much beleaguered Senate voting system as it stands now and finally eliminate the absurd situation of having a senator elected with 0.5% of first preferences.

It is always fun though seeing what interesting people get elected to the Senate though.

There were always two things to look for if Abbott was going to go for an early election, a reshuffle and Senate voting reforms.

While I think March is more likely than November this year... If you start to see any significant policy shifts in the next month or so... it'll be shaping up for sooner, rather than later.

The NSW ALP continues to make a strong recovery.

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TPP
Coalition- 56% (+2)
Labor- 44% (-2)

Primary
Coalition- 47% (+1)
Labor- 33% (-1)
Greens- 11% (+1)
Otherd- 9% (-1)

Mike Baird Favorability
Approval- 63% (+6)
Disapproval- 23% (-6)

Luke Foley Favorability
Approval- 35% (-3)
Disapproval- 37% (0)

Preferred Premier
Baird- 57% (+3)
Foley- 19% (-8)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/25/newspoll-56-44-to-coalition-in-nsw-3/

I am happy to say that for the first time, I guess, ever (since I started to follow Australian politics, really),  I do not detest a Coalition government :)

Is Turnbull really going to pass Senate reform? Ugh. At least the Republic remains a pipe dream. How soon can we get Abbott back?

Hopefully, never.

Do you really enjoy being wrong?

Foley needs to go jfc. NSW Labor is such a damaged brand.

I really can't see anyone doing any better. The issue is the NSW Labor brand and also Baird being uncontroversial and moderate.

Realistically Labor won't win until 2023 at the earliest.

Decent approval ratings for Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, though nowhere near Baird levels.

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TPP
Labor- 53% (+2)
LNP- 47% (-2)

It should be noted that this result is from using a number of past election preferences; if preferences went like they did in January, this would be 55-45.

Primary
Labor- 41% (+3)
Coalition- 38% (-3)
Greens- 9% (+1)
Others- 12% (-1)

Annastacia Palaszczuk Favorability
Approval- 53%
Disapproval- 33%

Lawrence Springborg Favorability
Approval- 34%
Disapproval- 43%

Preferred Premier
Palaszczuk- 49%
Springborg- 28%

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/28/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-in-queensland-2/

Makes one wonder if she'll go to an early election if she continues to get decentish results like this one. I assume she'll wait until after a federal election though if she goes that route.

Apparently the LNP is planning to roll Springborg already.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/springborg-fends-off-lnp-spill-speculation-20150928-gjwlcx.html

Poor Lawrence.

The problem is, parties are too determined to win government back straight away (understandable) but realise that, especially in NSW Labor's case, they need to totally knock-down and rebuild. But instead, they're not interested in rebuilding, which is why Baird will be untouchable for a long time to come. There was no mea culpa, no public acknowledgement that Labor had lost faith with the public. That was step #1.

Pauline Hanson is running for a Queensland Senate seat at the next election. Oh look, here's her platform.

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Tony and Joe's new seats in Question Time today.

Ha! Abbott has to sit behind Peter Hendy, one of his key knifers.

The AEC has released the proposed electoral boundaries for New South Wales. (http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2015/10-16.htm)

Luke Foley is a massive dead weight and NSW Labor won't be winning with him at the helm.

The left hasn't forgotten that he began the campaign by coming out for an annual $100 million tax cut for the horse and greyhound racing industries, with the stated desire of making NSW the "gaming state."  Kicking off the campaign with gambling and animal cruelty as well as policy proposals lifted directly from the pages of The Daily Telegraph.  Refusing to back down after Four Corners revealed the twisted, illegal methods of the greyhound racing industry.  You can see the enthusiasm for his bland and uninspiring leadership in the swing against the ALP in his own electorate.  Pathetic.

So the federal government came out in support or legalizing medical marijuana yesterday. A Turnbull decision, or something a long time coming?

Prompted by a Di Natalie campaign on the issue, at least in part.  He got Shorten to commit to medical cannabis the day before Turnbull also agreed to it.  Now we have a funny situation where the ALP is criticising Turnbull for only allowing states to give out growing licenses whereas they argue that the scheme should be federal, and that people should have access to medical cannabis regardless of their location.

Probably more because of the Victorian government, let's be real Di Natalie has like no influence.

^ The Australian Story episode this week gave credit to the Greens and Mike Baird (if anything, Baird more so).  Which is a bit iffy, IMO, given that NSW is still waiting for the rest of Baird's government to come through.

Anyway, it's fine that you don't like the Greens, and I'm glad to hear that the Victorian government has been pushing this as well.  I honestly hadn't seen much about that, just that Di Natalie had been promoting the issue and going on speaking tours.  You very well could be right that it was prompted by the Victorian government.  I was just putting together what I had seen: a very organised and concerted effort by Di Natalie, followed by Shorten's announcement, followed by Turnbull's.

In the latest news, Eric Abetz referred to Clarence Thomas as a "negro" in order to explain how opposing SSM is not a form of bigotry.  While he complains that the government is being ambushed into a premature vote on the issue, let us not forget that the non-binding plebiscite would cost a minimum of $160 million.  This is money that, according to the government, we do not have.

I didn't see anything here about this, either - the Coalition and Labor passed a law to take away cash payments from some Centrelink recipients on the basis that they live in indigenous communities.  Instead, they are given a card that they can use at the supermarket.  It is an effective way to remove the autonomy of the people affected and ensure that they would not be able to make cash payments for the most affordable items; i.e. fresh fruit and vegetable from a direct supplier, second hand clothes or furniture, etc.  Given that it only applies to indigenous communities, we can only assume that the politicians who passed this know something about racial genetics that presumably scientists have not yet discovered.

I don't agree with the decision of course but it's pretty obvious that the decision was made due to the long history of alcoholism in remote Indigenous communities.

They are also trialing cashless welfare cards in Ceduna, South Australia I believe.

Studying the medicinal cannabis issue more, I think Solopop is definitely right about the Victorian government being a driving factor and I apologise to him for being snarky about it.  In fact, the Victorian model is clearly superior to what NSW is considering and it frustrates me that Baird is able to brand himself in such a favourable way despite barely dragging his party kicking and screaming into progress on this issue.

Re: alcoholism in Indigenous communities.  The cashless cards have been trialled in NT for several years now, the same communities facing an involuntary and race-based prohibition of alcohol (and pornography).  Perhaps the alcoholism rationale makes more sense in SA where prohibition is not in effect, but that excuse can't be used for the Northern Territory.  And while we're on the subject of prohibition, some Aboriginal leaders are certainly questioning the wisdom of this policy where men sit on a highway 15 km out of town to drink alcohol, fall asleep on the side of the road, and get run over by trucks.  The disgraceful legacy of Howard's "intervention" is beginning to rear its ugly head.

Ebowed - might want to look at Claire O'Neil's speech in the treatment of NZ citizens

The Cabinet has (once again) removed Knights and Dames from the Order of Australia.

^

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/11/02/10/08/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-axes-knights-and-dames

TONY ABBOTT'S ONE ACCOMPLISHMENT RUTHLESSLY OBLITERATED BY MALCOLM "ROBESPIERRE" TURNBULL.

RIP Australian sense of whimsy.

Boo hiss!

Onwards we march towards the Republic!

Antony Green has published estimated seat margins for the NSW federal redistribution. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw-federal-redistribution-2015/) Three Liberal seats have been shifted in favor of Labor.

They are:
Barton
Dobell
Paterson

The 11th was the 40th anniversary of the Dismissal of Gough Whitlam.

Anyone else see Labor's attack on Mal Brough and the Prime Minister in QT on Thursday?

Unbelievable that this man is the one in charge of "government integrity". What a joke!


Kind of hard to think now that both Gough and Fraser were both livin just over a year ago. How time flies...

If they'd both lived just one more year this would be only the third time ever that eight former Former Prime Ministers were alive at the same time.

Ex-Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane has jumped from the Liberal Party room to the National Party room. It's fair to say he has taken his opportunity to reenter the ministry. Some speculation that his joining the Nationals could cause a number of the following possibilities

- Allowing the Nationals to take another ministry spot and potentially giving Turnbull the opportunity to remove or stand aside Mal Brough.
- Causing Warren Truss to resign or retire and allow Barnaby Joyce to take the leadership, with Macfarlane as deputy.
- Opening up the potential for other reportedly dissatisfied regional Liberals, particularly Queensland LNP members to shift to the Nationals. Former whip Scott Buchholz was named as a possibility.

There have also been rumours that the state LNP organisation have been lobbying for their MPs to sit in their own party room, as opposed to having them choose to sit in either the Liberal or National party rooms. This would allow the LNP to take the Deputy Prime Ministers position each Coalition government.

I know it's old news now but can we talk about that disastrous Malcolm Turnbull interview with Leigh Sales... it was brutal...

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Also, Shorten apologised today for being caught texting while driving.  ::)

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Touche. :P

Well... nine months out from an election (likely) with a tough Budget and internal ructions.

I don't think that the Libs have too much to worry about in the short term as far as their polling is concerned (and yes that includes the election). God knows the public don't want to be greeted one day with the shock of Prime Minister Shorten in all its terrifyingly uninspiring blandness.

I've learned about not making even short-term predictions. Did anyone think in mid 2009 than Rudd would be removed and Labor would almost lose the 2010 election?

Or that after 2013 election that Abbott would be removed for Turnbull of all people after less than two years as PM?

Weird and uncontrollable things happen, I'm actually starting to think that an early election is actually much more likely than I have recently. Everything is now cycling around March/April ie before the Budget.

Macfarlane's move to the Nationals got rejected by the LNP state executive, even after the local party branch backed it.

Yes.


No :P


Maybe?

Yep, supposedly in the name of 'unity' and 'stability.'  Ha ha.

Mid year financial outlook reveals a ballooning deficit and the government is thrilled to announce it will be cracking down even more on Centrelink rorting, as opposed to, say, offshore shifting of profits by major companies.  By the time we're done with a Liberal government I fully expect us to have spent more on cracking down on welfare than on actual welfare payments. ;)

Anyone want to take bets on when the NBN has to be sold at a loss?

Ayy lmao. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-29/mal-brough-and-jamie-briggs-stand-down-from-frontbench/7058266)

I'll second that

Thoughts anyone? (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-30/trade-union-royal-commission-findings-released/7059348)  Local media, especially print media, seems to be making a fairly big deal about this, at least from what I can find while visiting my Grandad on the Sunshine Coast.

God I hate the Australian media, rather than focusing on how horrific raising the GST would be all they want to do is focus on Bill's awkward trip to the shops. The media's mindset is basically "let's not scrutinise Turnbull but spend a day talking about lettuce" and it's ing ridic.

Philip Ruddock to retire (http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/philip-ruddock-to-retire-from-politics-for-human-rights-role-20160208-gmoe8x.html)

Interesting movements today.

:/ Turnbull is planning on outsourcing Medicare - this is worse than Abbott's copayment.

So much chaos in the Government right now :)

- Resignations, retirements, sackings, tax reform policy paralysis ....

Lol ... The Deputy Chief Minister of the NT has resigned. This really needs to end.

Fairfax Ipsos

TPP
LNP: 52% (-4)
ALP: 48% (+4)

Primaries
LNP: 44% (-4)
ALP: 32% (+3)
GRN: 15% (+2)

Approval
Turnbull: 62% (-7)
Shorten: 30% (+1)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 24% (+8)
Shorten: 55% (-2)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 64% (-5)
Shorten: 19% (+1)

Lmao

Effort-post on election timing speculation...


There is increasing chatter about an early double-dissolution election. There is no appetite in the electorate for this, ESPECIALLY from Coalition voters. Sources say that at least 10 seats would be lost on that basis alone (I think that's a little hysterical, but it certainly wouldn't aid good will).

There are basically three windows for the election this year.

- Running to term (or near-abouts)
20, 27 August or 3 September - issues for this, the campaign would be run during the Olympics which would irritate people. Plus 3 September is the latest date full stop as the next weekend would go past the anniversary of the 2013 election and that's only usually done when a PM is trying to delay the inevitable.

- DD elections - the issue for these options is the Budget and it's traditional that elections don't run near Easter (families traveling) or into winter (not sure why that one... but there you go).
He's pretty much missed the window for a pre-Easter election, which was calling an election for the first or second weekend in March before Parliament returned on Feb 2. The other option would be to have the campaign have Easter in the middle and call it for the 9th of April. That would give the incoming Government 4 weeks to get the Budget finalised. But of course, remembering that the Budget can be handed down as late as August. But the Labor attack will be that they're trying to avoid the Budget and it would be potent.

The next option is calling the election the day after the Budget is handed down... 11 May for sometime in July. a) this would be a LONG campaign b) this would be a very strange set of events. Suggesting that the Budget is the manifesto and will only enact it if re-elected... the issue is it would likely span the end of financial year and require cross-party support for an interim funding Bill. Unlikely that supply would be blocked, but that would need to happen or at least be telegraphed well in advance.

The other option would be to call the election at the end of June for 5 August... yes it's the first day of the Olympics... but it would the first possible date for a regular election. But it would require the Government handing down a Budget and assuming no further deterioration in the Government and PM's standing between down and 6 months time... that's a courageous move.


So unless he calls this weekend and it's a longer-than-usual campaign, since a 33-day campaign would  have election day on 26 March (Easter Saturday, so that's a no) ...

I think his windows are...

Call the election on 27 Feb or 4 March for 2 or 9 April - giving enough time pre-Budget. Doing it between then and May will mean a delayed Budget and would look terrible.

Call the election on 25 June or 2 July for 5 August.

Or the very strange option of calling on 11 May for 2/9/16 July. Or, just waiting for the end of August/early September and hope everything works out in the interim?

Newspoll

TPP
LNP: 50% (-3)
ALP: 50% (+3)

Primaries
LNP: 43% (-3)
ALP: 35% (+1)
GRN: 12% (+1)

Approval
Turnbull: 48% (-5)
Shorten: 28% (+3)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 38% (+7)
Shorten: 57% (-3)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 55% (-4)
Shorten: 21 (+1)

Glorious news.

The Libs are imploding, they should have called an election as soon as they replaced Abbott.

Yup.

Wait, are the Liberals really calling for an investigation into "cultural marxist indoctrination" in public schools?

Not really, what they ARE calling for is an investigation of the program that encourages safe spaces in public schools for LGBTI kids.

Surprised they are not investigating Q & A for bias.

Tony Jones interrupts every Liberal member every 3 seconds on that show.

It's like TOny has an earpiece connected to Kevin Rudd.

tbf Cory Bernardi did mention the cultural marxist thing in his big speech.

Lol, Tony Jones' issue isn't bias it's that he tries to make himself part of the show.

Hack Senator Joe Bullock resigns because he can't accept SSM, and is being replaced by indigenous leader Patrick Dodson:

()

So Turncoat is displaying his hypocrisy once again today...

Polnut, why do people hate Bill Shorten so much?

I'm not sure people actually care about him either way.

Newspoll

TPP
LNP: 50% (NC)
ALP: 50% (NC)

Primaries
LNP: 43% (NC)
ALP: 35% (NC)
GRN: 12% (NC)

Approval
Turnbull: 44% (-4)
Shorten: 30% (+2)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 41% (+3)
Shorten: 55% (-2)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 55% (NC)
Shorten: 21 (NC)

I wouldn't say hate is the right word, but AFAIK he's seen as a bland union hack and possibly a bit weak.

It's too bad, he did a great speech the only time I saw him.

So if Turnbull does lose, how long will it take for the LNP right to rewrite history and claim they would have won if Abbott wasn't betrayed?

It's why Abbott and Co are white-anting Turnbull. To try to weaken him, have him lose then argue the unknowable "look, your saviour lost"

We dont hate him. He is very uncharismatic.

He sits around 15% as preferred Priminister.

ALP leaders seem to be either incredibly high energy or laughably low energy. In the modern era you've had Whitlam Hawke, Keating, Rudd and Latham but you've also had Crean, Hayden and Shorten.

It's about 20% now and will climb soon.

Turnbull's entire reason for deposing Abbott was because the government was failing in the polls.  I wonder what happens if Turnbull starts dipping even more?

J/k, expecting any modicum of consistency from the Coalition is pointless.

I'm almost certain the election will be in July.

Yes, very good point. Meanwhile I can't remember the last Liberal leader that could be considered high-energy - Snedden maybe?

Australian politics is such a joke atm.

Not as much as the US but like jesus christ these people are ridic.

Indeed, it seems likely that the Budget will be moved forward a week (all of the function spaces in P'House are booked up for 3 May... in a week when Parliament isn't supposed to be sitting... hmmm?) to enable the Budget and reply to happen, then announce the next weekend for a (sigh) 8 week campaign.

I'm not sure if it's just me, but running on the back of the budget seems a really risky strategy for mine. Especially given that I suspect it'll be a fairly aggressive budget.

I think it's a huge risk, as is a really long campaign when Shorten will be as front and centre as the PM.

One thing is for sure.

The Australian election cycle will be less interesting than an episode of RBT.

()

So...

Turnbull will recall Parliament from 18 April for a three-week sitting that will include the Budget being brought forward a week to 3 May. IF the particular Bill on the Australian Building and Construction Commission is blocked by the Senate, he WILL call a double-dissolution election for 2 July.

What's clear is that he fully intends to call a DD, but is trying to get on an anti-union footing by forcing this Bill to be the 'trigger'.

Sorry this is late, but I just heard about this story.  I don't follow Aussie politics much, but why would the Party force him to vote a certain way on an issue?  Is that typical?  Also, if it were a problem, why doesn't he just switch parties???

Party line voting is pretty common. This isn't like the UK or US where each vote is a vote to be gained etc. there are some issues that are on conscience. SSM is one of them in Labor, whereas the Liberals are forcing a party-line vote against it. The ALP position will change in 2019, but the party is pushing it as an issue and Bullock won't support it at all. He also won't switch parties, because of his hardcore union background.

A new poll conducted for News Corp. has Dick Smith leading Bronwyn Bishop by 33 points on the primary vote in Mackellar. Not buying it, but LOL.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/would-you-vote-for-dick-smith-poll-shows-hed-easily-take-bronwyn-bishops-seat/news-story/6e245f9320580e8b53125941557bd33e

Not that it matters as she'll most likely lose preselection anyway.

Turnbull is playing an interesting game here, with a number of options. The official noises are that he's trying to back away from the DD.

1. He really wanted a DD, but the move only really impressed the media and the internal polling is showing the move has not paid off (fwiw, I've heard the internals have the Libs being returned, but it basically being 2010 redux).

2. He really didn't want a DD, but has taken the risk to try to force the cross-benchers to come to heel ... but after all of the bluster of the threats, to not have a DD, even if the Bills are passed, would make him look terribly weak.

3. (the most likely option in my mind) He still wants the DD, but is desperately trying to force the "blame" onto the cross-benchers.

Frankly, despite the remarkable fawning from Mark Kenny/Peter Hartcher etc... I don't see any way out of this in which Turnbull and his government look stronger.

I'd urge reading into what Malcolm has just tried to pull with the states and with health and especially education.

This is a very, very risky strategy and could do serious damage to the government in marginals.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-01/brent-seriously,-is-turnbull-trying-to-lose-this-election/7288452

Just for context.

totally inept, absolute lunatic proposal from Turnbull, I'm at a loss how this man can, with a straight face, say that we will keep paying for private schools, a private health insurance rebate, massive tax concessions for property investors, and avoid cracking down on multinational tax avoidance ... AND announce massive spending hikes on defense and an "innovation package" while paying billions to fund refugee detention camps and corporate polluter pay-offs ... but there is no money for schools and hospitals????

Complete joke.  He really thinks he can get away with shifting the blame like this?

It's bonkers. He floated a massive tax reform without notice on the states and it was dead within less than 30 hours.

[urlhttp://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/04/kevin-andrews-is-prepared-to-challenge-turnbull-for-prime-ministership]apparently there might be a challenge against Turnbull soon[/url] - Andrews would probably lose but I can't imagine that's what the government want floating around a month before they call a Double Dissolution

Lol, no. Andrews was the stalking horse in 2009 before Abbott rolled Turnbull... but nah.

Newspoll

Primaries
LNP: 41% (-2)
ALP: 36% (+2)
GRN: 11% (-1)

TPP
LNP: 49% (-2)
ALP: 51% (+2)

Satisfaction
Turnbull: 38% (-1)
Shorten: 32% (+4)

Dissatisfaction
Turnbull: 48% (+4)
Shorten: 53% (+1)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 48% (-4)
Shorten: 27% (+6)

This is the first non-Morgan poll since the Turnbull ascension that has seen the ALP in a lead (versus a 50-50 tie)

Glorious ing glorious.

Ugh... when is NSW Labor going to get rid of that deadweight Luke Foley?

Of all the issues to take a "principled stand"... coming out to bat for the dog racing industry.  Calling people who are concerned about animals "elitist" and saying that an enormous gambling industry are the real "battlers"... holy christ this guy is so out of touch, it's sort of unbelievable.

I mean, for goodness' sake, Baird does SO MANY awful, awful things - why pounce on the ONE good thing he's done??!  It defies any reasonable explanation.

There's a reason why I NEVER supported Foley, he's got a particularly strong relationship with the gaming/racing "industries". Baird was absolutely right to do this, I don't care WHO is betting and gets enjoyment out of this, it's cruel and until there's rock-solid evidence that it can be run without mass slaughter of dogs, the torture and death of small animals used for training, then it must end. I'm pleased that ACT Labor has followed suit.

Haha,

The whole Australian election covered in 2 posts.

I though Malcolm could have pushed the "children in detention" argument a lot harder.

Because no matter what argument ensues, Labor put them all there.

All I heard was Shorten saying Medicare was going to be privatised.

After Turnbull said, no, never about Medicare being sold off, I was convinced that he would not do it (even though it's probably a good thing) in this term, yet Shorten did not change tact.

That was pretty dumb.

I thought Labor could have won that election if they had a stronger candidate.

Plibersek maybe.

That's on you, my friend. :P

The Medicare angle hit home because we don't trust Turnbull not to privatize it, and we still don't.  In the next few years they will continue to try and sneak in co-payments, cuts to bulk billing, introducing costs for blood tests, pap smears, the list goes on.  They are biting at the very heart of Medicare - which is supposed to be a universal program that is available to everyone, regardless of ability to pay.  They are trying to change the structure so that it's "more economical" to purchase private health insurance - the rebate for, which, by the way, has never been under threat by the cost-cutting Liberals.  I wonder why?

Do you ever wonder why they are so happy to cut funding for public schools and yet Australia's status as a country that fully subsidizes its classist selective school system is never under threat?

Do you ever wonder why they would intentionally mismanage the NBN so that it would eventually be privatized, leaving regional Australians without the Internet speeds that everyone else in the developed world takes for granted?

Can't trust them, and that's what you see in the election results.  Shorten was right to say Turnbull can't be trusted on Medicare.  He can't be trusted.

a) Mediscare, such as it is, worked because a lot of people fundamentally don't trust the intentions of the Coalition when it comes to health. If it wasn't working, then Shorten would have stopped. He didn't, because it was. Also how would privatising Medicare be good for it? When OH WHEN, will people realise that there are some things the public sector is actually the more efficient and cost-effective option, such as primary service delivery.

b) Shorten ran as good a campaign as any member of the front-bench could have. This election was winnable, and Labor came extremely close. I think Labor has also shown a much deeper bench than the Coalition for the future.

Turnbull might be forming government, but he's got a grazed knee, fewer backers in the party room, an even more difficult Senate than he already had ... he might have won in the immediate term, but unless he does something remarkable, he's the medium-longer term loser.

Turnbull's win makes it a lot easier for state Labor parties to win again which is a good thing.

First Newspoll post election

Primary (change from election)
LNP: 41% (-1.2)
ALP: 36% (+1.3)
GRN: 9% (-1.2)

TPP
LNP: 50% (-0.4)
ALP: 50% (+0.4)

Satisfaction
Turnbull: 34% (-6)
Shorten: 36% (-)

Dissatisfaction
Turnbull: 52% (+5)
Shorten: 50% (-1)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 43% (-5)
Shorten: 32% (+1)

Prediction: Turnbull is rolled next year.

There's been serious hijinks surrounding Bob Day, a Family First senator until yesterday. It's quite complicated and it involves his housing company, party finance and the possibility he was never legitimately elected in the first place.

My main takeaway: a minor party crossbencher turns out to be crooked? What a shocker!

(Oh yeah we missed a whole lot of Abbott/Turnbull feuding a week or so ago about guns, and the (crooked) crossbencher David Leyonhjelm. Nobody came across very well, least of all Abbott who appears to believe he can swoop back in KRudd style, apparently forgetting that the public quite liked KRudd, even if his party didn't. At the moment neither the parliamentarians nor the public particularly approve of Abbott, so God knows what his game is.

Abbott or not, the L/NP is heading for a crushing defeat in 2019.

"The Coalition will consider a form of carbon pricing for power companies as part of a long-awaited review of Australia's climate policies, Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has confirmed."

Kek

Kek

BREAKING NEWS: MIKE BAIRD, L/NP PREMIER OF NEW SOUTH WALES RETIRES NEXT WEEK

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikebairdMP/status/821840888988975104?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

BREAKING NEWS: Vegemite is set to return to Australian ownership

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/bega-buys-vegemite-mondelez/8193268

Vegemite has returned to Australian ownership after a hiatus of foreign ownership.

()

I thought it was lost forever.

3 DEAD, AT LEAST 25 INJURED AFTER MAN DRIVES THROUGH BOURKE STREET MALL IN MELBOURNE THIS AFTERNOON, RIGHT BLAMES ISLAM, THEY ARE WRONG

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bourke-street-mall-incident-what-we-know-so-far-20170120-gtvg2x.html

The right wing has come out of the woodwork again about the event on Swanston and Bourke streets this afternoon. Even though the man who did this was an Australian of Greek descent, the right keeps spreading this bullsh**t about him being Muslim, was from the Middle East, saying 'Allahu Akbar" etc. How we allow these people to keep spreading their hate and bigotry in 2017 is just disgusting.

My thoughts go out to all of the families affected by this incident, and hope that those who have been injured make a quick recovery.

The Coalition is polling at its lowest level since the times of Abbott's removal form the Prime Ministership, with Labor now leading in both the Primary Vote, and the TPP vote. The worrying thing about this poll is the rise of One Nation, who is polling just under the Greens (10 GRN, 9 ON)

FULL POLL: http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Essential-Report_170124.pdf

The good news is that if the Coalition keeps trailing Labor, then Turnbull will *have* to be replaced - that is the very metric he set when deposing Abbott.  The bad news is that anyone who would replace him (Abbott in particular) would only continue to embarrass Australia on the global stage while running the economy into the ground and pretending that the future is coal.  Slim pickings among the Coalition, after all.

Not that I mind, particularly - watching Turnbull over the last week (especially, but not limited to, his disastrous interview with Stan Grant), it's better from my perspective for the government to be inept rather than effective, so Turnbull is welcome, by all means, to continue leading the Coalition until they get the defeat they so badly deserve.

Cory Bernardi is leaving the Liberal Party.

To sit as an independent, to join One Nation, or to start his own political movement?

He'll be creating the Conservative party, or, at least, that's what I have been reading.

EDIT: from what I am seeing, the new party will be called the Australian Conservative Party. This is the logo for that party on Bernadi's site

()

Worse for them, who ever won this year had the displeasure of knowing that they WILL lose in a landslide in the next election, regardless of the party who won, because that is just what happens in our government.

Any odds of that working?

I don't think, and hope it doesn't work, because if it did, it would pose an even bigger threat than One Nation does.

I'd hope it does -- it'd be a positive development for a less ridiculous far-right party than One Nation to emerge, both to stifle One Nation and to continue to foster the growth of the third-party vote in Australia, leading hopefully to the eventual collapse of the duopoly.

I tend to think they won't get too far. The most vulnerable part of the LNP is probably the bush area; and I don't see them going for a true-blue party when more populist and protectionist outfits are available (whether they be One Nation, rural independents (like Xenephon) or the single-issue parties).

I'm inclined to agree. Most conservatives will likely avoid Bernardi; he doesn't really have a good reputation in SA political circles, to put it lightly. Apparently, not even many state Liberals can stand him.

Bernardi will go well.

Pauline Hanson is someone who has been tainted with her views on immigrants and religion.

She will get 10-15% of the votes in the upcoming WA state election.

With Donald Trump being elected in the USA, there is a desire in Australia to introduce a Pauline style candidate but with a little more intelligence.

Pauline is a few Mb short of a Gb to pit it nicely.

But even so, very popular now.

It really comes down to what he is proposing.

Let's see his policies. We do have issues with home grown terrorism. We do have issues with massive welfare dependence by refugees. We do have issues with employment where manufacturing has gone to China and Japan.

Australia will go broke as a welfar state unless we turn it around.

If he sells that line, he will get votes.

One Nation will get 5-8 percent at most in WA. Queensland would be a very different story however, IF they had their election this year, ON I would think they would be getting 5-10 seats, with around 15-18 percent.

Quoted for posterity. In regional WA, she will go nuts.

It's amazing in the context that she only chose candidates three weeks ago, and then the election is a month away.

Some of the candidates were of questionable character.

Bernardi will be watching closely. He thinks he can pull off a Trumpy but our politcal system will shut him out.

Bernardi's an idiot anyway. He says upfront that climate change is a hoax, that accepting gay marriage will lead to bestiality, and that he will resist any attempts at installing renewable energy sources.

He could just go to the US where his overlord lives.

Follow live:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-07/politics-live-february-7/8244290

Ahh, it's fun watching the right wing fall to pieces :D

His leaving makes me more likely to vote Liberal. Not less.

Haha

Odds on another spill?

Not gonna happen. At least for a while. They'll wait for the Bernardi thing to blow over before trying anything. If there is going to be a spill, it won't happen anytime soon. The conservatives-mainly Abbott and Dutton-have been calling out Bernardi over his decision to leave, calling him an cowardly opportunist.

I've got better odds on Bernardi crawling back to the Liberals before he's put on the line in 2022/

New Senate layout, as of Feb. 8

()

GOVERNMENT: 29
LIB: 20 (-1)
QLD LNP: 5
NAT: 3
CLP: 1

OPPOSITION
ALP: 26

CROSSBENCH: 19
GRN: 9
NXT: 3
ON: 3
LDP: 1
Lambie: 1
Hinch: 1
Aus. Conservatives: 1 (new party)
2 VACANT

They still haven't filled Day's seat?

No.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/fallout-over-liberal-one-nation-preference-deal-in-wa/8263756

Haha. Liberal volunteers will be asked to hand out One Nation voter cards at the upcoming WA state election after the Liberals reached a deal with One Nation.

This election is all over now.

()

He has been there for 8 years, and we might get 12.

I don't mind Colin Barnett, but I think he has missed the financial gains that the mining boom should have delivered to the state coffers.

There are so many mining, oil and gas development projects that could have been setup better for the interests of the state rather than the corporate world.

Rio Tinto and BHP are crying poor at the threat of a new mining tax when they are the two largest mining companies in the world.  

Hilarious that the Nationals are pushing for a mining tax, after the chaos of Rudd's departure and Gillard's mangled implementation.

Watch, this deal will backfire in a spectacular fashion.

Yup. Hell, Hanson and her cronies make Turnbull and his look downright sensible.

So apparently Abbott's angling for a return to the top job.

He's genuinely delusional. I mean, Rudd managed to get back in because even if his colleagues hated his guts, the public were broadly sympathetic to him still (relative to Gillard anyway). Who - Liberal MP's and Australians alike - has any nostalgia for the Abbott era? Not to mention even his idealogical wing seems to have lost their patience. At best, he'd be an inadvertent staking horse, by striking Turnbull a blow that will be taken advantage of by a less toxic figure like Morrison, or , if the Libs are especially stupid, Dutton.

That's the thing. Even most of the Coalition's right wing agreed he had to go.

The one guy who didn't has thrown a temper tantrum and jumped over to the crossbench, because he wants to make himself less relevant.

Either way, Shorten must be thinking every day is Christmas at this point. All he has to do is point out one or two things each day watch the Liberals collapse in on themselves.

Ready for the 2019 Labor landslide?

I haven't seen this much public concern about industrial relations in ages, the FWC ruling is going to be a major headache for the libs.

Meanwhile Shorten and Plibersek are laughing their butts off.

If the federal election was held today, the L/NP would be swept out of office in the biggest labor landslide in electoral history.

2PP
LAB: 55% (+1)
L/NP: 45 (-1)

PRIMARY VOTE: LAB +3
LAB: 37% (+1)
L/NP: 34% (-1)
GRN: 10% (+1)
ON: 10% (+2)
OTH: 9 (-2, most of this other vote would be NXT)

SEAT PROJECTIONS (courtesy of The Australian)
LAB: 89 (+20)
L/NP: 56 (-20)
OTH: 5 (0) (1 GRN, 1 NXT, 1 KAP, 2 IND)

This will no doubt cause a leadership spill within the L/NP. Gonna be a very exciting few weeks in Australian politics.

wow

may i ask what are the main reasons for this change?

Mainly a lot of instability within the L/NP, the rise of One Nation, and e multiple gaffes committed by senior party figures.

The penalty rates conversation has been illuminating.

Let me share something with you all.  I have worked in hospitality for ten years.  I have never received any penalty rates for working on weekends.  Most hospitality jobs now, particularly small businesses, pay below the minimum wage.

So to see all of this uproar about people losing income - and I do feel very badly for people affected by this - makes me a little bit bitter.

The casual sectors - be it hospitality, retail, sanitation, or anything else that people look down on you for - have been seeing outright wage declines for the better part of a decade.  When you combine this with the fact that there is no longer full-time work available, it means that take-home pay gets lower every year.  The best you can hope for these days is 25 hours a week at a place that pays the minimum wage.  But even that is pretty hard to find.

I point this out because the productivity commission made a fatal error in justifying this decision.  Businesses will not be "boosted" by this because many of them were not paying penalty rates to begin with.  Workers who are affected will have less money to spend on the very businesses that are supposed to benefit.

These businesses are usually several steps ahead of the law in their methods of exploitation.  What this decision signals is not that penalty rates are gone - they already were - but merely that owners have been given the green light to further deteriorate the conditions of their employees.

In Australia in 2017, workers under 30 can expect not to be provided with breaks, or if they do get breaks, they will be timed according to how long it takes you to scarf down a meal, rather than observing the legal entitlement of a half-hour.  It is increasingly difficult to get sick leave and annual leave.  Because the government refuses to plan the economy properly, there is a huge over supply of workers for these businesses, which means that they can get away with treating workers this way because they will burn out and be replaced very easily.  Looking for work at a fast food restaurant or a call center?  Join the very, very long queue.

Of course, we would never expect someone like Malcolm Turnbull to understand any of this, because he doesn't work weekends and he stores his cash in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying taxes while he arrogantly pleads with us to buy private health insurance.  Yeah, sure, I'd love to cough up thousands of dollars on shoddy and pointless insurance with money that I don't have.

So... Who wants to bet on who'll be rolling Turnbull out the door?

Also, projected gains for Labor if the 4.5% swing was uniform:
WA: +3: Pearce, Hasluck, Swan
SA: +1:  Boothby
QLD: +8: Leichhardt, Dickson, Petrie, Bonner, Forde, Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn
VIC: +4: Chisholm, Corangamite, Dunkley, La Trobe
NSW: +4: Banks, Gilmore, Page, Robertson

As I said, Shorten must be thinking every day is Christmas at this point.

Yep, especially if Turnbull gets rolled. If the Liberal Party installed someone like Abbott, or Dutton, I won't be surprised if Labor's 2PP goes near 60

I hope Dutton does take the role, seeing that his seat is marginal.

Oh it'd be fun to see a hypothetical PM Dutton lose his seat to some local no-name.

Oh look; the resurgent One Nation is beginning to fall to bits already.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/one-nation-candidate-quits-kalamunda-candidacy/8323792 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/one-nation-candidate-quits-kalamunda-candidacy/8323792)

Bill Shorten, Labor leader, marching in the Sydney Mardi Gras.
https://www.facebook.com/BillShorten/videos/vb.464998863536680/1248364468533445/?type=2&theater&notif_t=live_video&notif_id=1488623349984641

Newly popularised right wing red headed politician admires Vladimir Putin before upcoming election.

Wait.....hang on a sec....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-05/australia-wants-a-leader-like-putin,-hanson-says/8326254

She is telling a massive lie if she think Australians are even remotely accepting of him and how he runs.

Pauline must think that copying Donald Trump word for word and saying controversial things will help get her exposure.

But we dont have any illegal immigrants anymore. Muslim immigration leading to terrorist activities is virtually non-existent.

So her only controversial position is she has a thing for Vladimir Putin.

Nonetheless it's working. Pauline is is sitting about 11% in the polls. Given the hidden orange haired loving silent voter effect, that number will probably end up around 18%.

She might win Kalgoorlie and a couple of regional seats.

For a second I thought you came up with another weird nickname for me :P

You don't think her vaccination bs is contraversial?

It was in Mandurah this afternoon.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/waelection/wa-election-2017-one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-campaigns-in-wa/news-story/4c08ee3ded58f5c311653fa38d1a6096

Half way down.

Pauline is getting mass coverage akin to Donald Trump:

https://www.9now.com.au/a-current-affair/2017/clip-cizxwh8tu006e0gpmugj4sexh

Pauline could have killed that interview.

A Current Affair ran an extremely disturbing racially motivated muslim gang rape case 2 mins before that interview. If only Pauline had known, she could have accused Tracy of stirring up religious tensions herself.

Still, the two most powerful women in Australia is always a laugh.

Tracy ripped her a couple of times.

Hanson is an idiot.

As a fish batterer she can more credibly carry the 'populist' label than Trump, I suppose.

She is more popular now than in 1998.

Just surviving that long in politics and spending time in jail is a sign of a survival instinct.

Has she explained why being swamped with Asians is no longer a problem?

Oh she stll believes that. She just lumps in Muslims with them, so now you get double the bigotry.

Pauline actually had an Asian woman as a candidate in her party, and sacked her for saying homophobic remarks.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/pauline-hanson-suspends-candidate-shan-ju-lin-over-homophobic-comments/news-story/a4950c36612f8f316bec6530bcf56ce9

Shan Ju Lin said that homosexuals should be treated like patients seeking medical attention.

To which Pauline said

“These are not the views shared by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, now the views of your fellow candidates and the general public,” she said.

“I will not stand by and allow people to trash the Party or my name, so I make no apologies for being tough on candidates.”

Salt Creek Backpacker Sexual Attack trial begins in Adelaide.

Two young foreign female backpackers from Germany and Brazil seeking to travel from Adelaide to Melbourne offered lift by 60 yo suspect.

()

Stopped and camped at a beach on the way. He has cut one girls bikini off with a knife when she was slightly drunk after walking her into remote sand dunes near the beach.

"He grabbed her, he pulled her to the ground face first, he positioned himself over her body preventing her from getting up. Then he produced a knife.

"The accused had total domination over her. With the flurry of a knife she was naked. Lying in the sand she was helpless."

She pointed out she would be more comfortable back in the beach side tent, so he walked her back there naked....

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/law-order/chilling-salt-creek-kidnapper-trial-in-the-sa-supreme-court/news-story/6a283115e7d8a3ff128d969cd473b732

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-09/salt-creek-trial-hears-alleged-kidnapper-was-armed-with-hammer/8338610

He has allegedly tried to strip them, bind them and sexually assault them in remote samd dunes. Amazing story of escape. This will end up being a movie.

Meanwhile, an English backpacker has been kidnapped in Queensland and kept as a sex slave for 2 months by a 22 year old man.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-07/rape-strangulation-charges-for-man-found-hiding-car/8330624

Going to jail for a very long time.

You probably confused "Austria" with "Australia", mate.

The liberals are down to just 2 premierships after the liberal party is removed from office in a landslide.

One nation has also performed really poorly, only pulling 4.5% as of 8:01 AWST

follow the election live: http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/ (http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/)

The results show that One Nation peaked ages ago, and shouldn't be a problem in most states, except in Queensland

The federal liberal party has killed themselves after saying that they will NOT rule out another preference deal with One Nation

Isn't it fun watching the Australian right implode?

The just got smashed in WA. I mean, it was a complete blowout. And this was likely what doomed them; it made it easy for WA Labor to paint them as going too far to the right.

Either way, I predict a massive Labor swing in 2019.

Honestly, they didn't even need one nation as an excuse to paint them as toof ar right, Barnett was there to begin with :P

The Liberals are seriously inept if they are actually sticking with Fizza Turnbull after the last couple of months.

Has Turnbull actually accomplished anything other than presiding over an increase in homelessness and a decrease in take-home pay?  Pathetic.

Well who takes over? Dutton? His seat is slightly marginal. Bishop? The right wing won't support a moderare woman. Abbott? He'll get crushed in 2019.

No matter who is leader, they'll get crushed, becuase the Liberal bench is extremely weak.

()

This story has so many similarities to Wolf Creek, it's not funny...

Blood Everywhere: http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-14/salt-creek-trial-hears-backpacker-covered-blood-police-responded/8353206

I am not going to die today: http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-15/salt-creek-backpacker-tells-court-she-refused-to-die/8356880

Run over with a car multiple times: http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-09/salt-creek-trial-hears-alleged-kidnapper-was-armed-with-hammer/8338610

OMG. This is the craziest story of backpacker survival since Joanne Lees escaped the evil clutches of the murderous Bradley John Murdoch.

()

It hardly matters, the Liberals have no record to run on, so I guess you are right that they would be better off with Turnbull.

PM Dutton would probably be the final nail in the coffin in Australia's international reputation.

Bishop is extraordinarily corrupt, even by the standards of the Turnbull government.  If she ever really wanted to be leader of the Liberals, she should have probably been more careful not to so blatantly accept gifts and bribes from donors.

As Lok sais above, the Liberals have no one ready to take over. Labor has a decent bench. Plibersek, Albanese, Chris Bowen, Tony Burke and so on.

The point is, if Shorten suddenly implodes (which I honestly can't see happening), then there's a cadre of skilled leaders ready to take over, so old Bill can rest easy. Turnbull can't do the same.

Chris Bowen and Anthony Albanese suck, lol.

I actually think Shorten is doing fine.  But I could be biased.

I used to live in Albanese's district (he is a real piece of work), now I live next to Shorten's, and met him last year the day after the election.  That was a very exciting day - it still wasn't clear that Turnbull's government would hold on!

But apparently Turnbull is feeling emboldened because he's "only" down 52-48 in the latest NewsPoll.  How many is that in a row where the Coalition is losing? :D

How was talking to Shorten like?

Pleasant!  He came across as genuine and friendly.

Pauline Hanson has been slammed over saying that we should #pray4muslimban, and rightly so, considering it wouldn't really do jacksh**t a lot of the time.

Pauline Hanson shilling for Abbott-Turnbull cuts to struggling families is the ultimate confirmation of her pyramid scheme party being a stalking horse for failed Liberal policies.

She's actually said some good things about trade and oir farmland being sold off . . . but she's sold out now.

Same for Xenophon the Xenocon. Populist? He's proved that he's not. He used to be a good fighter for us in SA, but now he's sold out big-time.

Meanwhile, my respect for Shorten, Di Natale and Lambie grows.

Pauline Hanson has come out and said Australia needs to be vaccinated against Islam.

A new Fairfax-Ipsos poll has shown that if the election was to be held on Saturday, the Government could lose 24 seats, including cabinet ministers Peter Dutton, and Christian Poter, along with junior ministers Ken Wyatt, and Luke Hartsuyker.

2PP
LAB: 56% (+4)
L/NP: 44% (-4)

PRIMARY VOTE:
LAB: 34%
L/NP: 33%
GRN: 16% (unusually high, also the reason why labor's primary vote is so low for the 2PP)
OTH: 17% (They don't separate PHONy from the others)

Under a uniform swing, that would get Labor to 93, and that's if the Greens don't gain seats from that high of a primary vote, as I would think that the Greens word take at least 1-2 more seats.

Hahaha!  Hopefully that will teach Turnbull not to waste his diminishing (diminished?) political capital on watering down race-hate laws.  What an idiot!

Ikr, and people thought we was gonna have a polling bounce.

A new Fairfax-Ipsos poll has found at 8/10 Australians polled disapprove the proposed changes to section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act

Link (profanity warning): www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-eight-in-10-voters-oppose-turnbull-governments-18c-race-hate-law-changes-20170327-gv7dlq.html

Duh. Turnbull has let me down. I thought he'd be different from the radical right of Abbott.

The crucial problem, of course, is that while Turnbull lets regular people down for being such a hard-right sell-out, the far-right nutters simultaneously question his purity and devotion to the cause.

In other words, nobody really likes Malcolm Turnbull, and it doesn't look like there is any way that is going to change.

Those who would be happy to see Trump to be replaced with a 'moderate' Republican should take note of all this.

The High Court has finally handed down its ruling on the validity of Bob Day's election to the Senate. In sum, Day has been deemed to have been ineligible to serve since February 2016, obviously before the last election. As a result, he was also ineligible to be elected at the July election and a re-count of the votes will be conducted by the AEC to choose his replacement.

The High Court has yet to decide if Family First is still entitled to it's above-the-line votes or if they are disqualified.

What would be the difference between this case and One Nation in Queensland in 1998, where their above-the-line votes were obviously maintained?

That was a pretty clear-cut recount with Len Harris being deemed elected in place of Heather Hill. Here, Family First received so few below-the-line-votes that if they were denied their ticket the seat would almost certainly go to Labor's Anne McEwen, who was defeated last July.

Found a bit more clarity on the above topic and High Court precedent over several cases would see Day's votes remaining and being distributed to the number two on the list, Lucy Gichuhi, electing her to the Senate.

A single justice of the court has to now decide the specific mechanics of the recount to instruct the AEC, but Gichuhi's election is a foregone conclusion. To be honest, the ALP (and really just McEwen more than anyone else) were really grasping at straws here.

I thought it interesting that following the result in WA, the Nationals opted to pick a new leader who not only prefers to not coalesce with the Liberals, still wants mining companies to pay taxes, and even goes so far as to call herself a feminist.

The WA Nationals always have a renegade streak. Depending on whether or not Labor can get a Liberal elected President of the Legislative Council (thus giving them and the Greens a one-seat majority), working with the Nats is probably their next best option.

Tony Nutt, the Director of the Federal Liberal Party, resigned from his position a few days ago. He was appointed soon after Turnbull took over and oversaw the 2016 campaign.

Also, the party's internal review of its handeling of the 2016 election is due to be presented to MPs today. It's expected to be pretty wide-ranging and damning of the party's performance.

Australia's Top New Story for April.

()

Ben McCormack, the Current Affair reporter who chases paedophiles and suspected criminals around with a camera asking them juicy questions live on TV is himself arrested for child porn offences.

Did not see that coming.

I have lost all faith in Tracy Grimshaw and the team, but they did admit it live on air.

https://youtu.be/nseEDGGxbxo

If you cant trust A Current Affair to chase criminals live on air, who can you trust.

https://youtu.be/NJ2L1k0xee8

I like that Joe guy.

It takes a pedo to catch other pedos.

I've never had respect for either A Current Affair or Today Tonight. They're both pathetic excuses for journalism.

They are not journalism. I agree.

But i love the way the chase and confront people.

Check this cameraman out. Nails a dude whp sprays them with a fizzy drink outside court when they were filming his sister.

https://youtu.be/KsWgrJINr00

The first sittingof the new Parliament of Western Australia is on Thursday 11 May. The new MLCs take their seats after 21 May.

apparently the Turnbull government is going to let young people raid their superannuation to buy a home, because they won't ever get to retire anyway.

The apex gang has now been declared a non-entity by Victoria police, with essentially the entire leadership now behind bars

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-12/victoria-police-declare-apex-crime-gang-non-entity/8440312

Vic. Police has also come out saying that the gang was never overly african in composition, in contradiction to what the (mostly Murdoch owned) Australian media has been showing (Thank god for the ABC, and The Age existing in today's society...).

I've been saying for years that the ABC is the only real new outlet that reports facts, rather than the stupid neutrality bias that other stations are obsessed with. The ABC doesn't care who they piss off-they do their job, and do it damned well.

The only reason the right wants to cut funding is because the ABC has reported some very inconvenient facts for them.

Certain elements of the ABC are pro-Labor.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/qa-malcolm-turnbull-tony-jones-in-testy-exchange/news-story/2b720d349745fafab8c077f9dbb800b1

Tony Jones is Kevin Rudd in a slightly worse haircut.

He is ridiculous to Liberal members of the panel. He jumps in and explains Labor's position and always criticizes Liberal positions.

The ABC I watch routinely runs scare stories about African youth, playing the same few clips over and over in stories where the footage is completely irrelevant.  In fact, in their neverending effort to not be defunded by the Coalition, they are always trying to present a false "fairness" which elevates blatant lies by the Coalition to the same level of merit as actual facts.  Sadly the ABC is complicit in the dumbing down of our political atmosphere.  Still, they are alone among the basic networks in providing any reasonable television coverage.

we could probably blame that on that Murdoch puppet Director, Michelle Guthries.

The weekly "bludgertrack"

()

Source: https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/04/17/bludgertrack-52-9-47-1-labor/

You gotta love the 2PP graph trend since the election.

Terrible news: Palmer United disbands.

Oh how utterly terrible.

God, the end of an era...

In other news, Labor is going to formally challenge the new Family First's senator's eligibility to sit in Parliament because of purported concerns over dual citizenship.

Gichuhi, right? Since she's the last person on the South Australian FFP list, if she is kicked out of the Senate (what a fail for Family First, having an entire list of people ineligible to serve), there would be a recount of those votes with probably Labor but possibly One Nation picking up a seat, correct?

EDIT: Although this seems unlikely to happen since under what was then Kenyan law, she lost her Kenyan citizenship in 1989. Means Gichuhi doesn't hold any citizenship other than Australian and hasn't in 28 years. Also, if Gichuhi is seated, she becomes the first African-Australian to serve in Parliament, which is an interesting milestone.

It's uncertain what happens; that's never really happened before. No idea if there's a recount or by-election or anything else.

No, it would be quite clear. If Gichuhi was deemed invalidly elected, the AEC would simply conduct another recount with her votes excluded and most likely see Labor elected to the seat. By-elections to not exist for single seats in the Senate. The whole Senate election could be deemed invalid as with WA in 2013, but that was down to misplaced ballots.

Also, the claims against Gichuhi do not seem particularly credible to hold up in court but we shall see.

Turnbull introduces tougher tests on citizenship for Africans.

More questions about wife beating and child marriage etc plus a 4 year wait for citizenship to be granted.

We are getting a lot of weird anti-social crime from our Sudanese immigrants perhaps?

The crime stats for Victoria show that only 4.8% of aggravated crime is committed by residents of African origin, so, at least in Victoria, the answer to that is no. 

In Victoria? That is the worst state for African crime:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-21/cyclist-slashed-robbed-in-random-attack-in-north-melbourne/8139622

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-22/woman-threatened-with-scissors-during-carjacking-in-melbourne/7868152

The one where three African immigrants stopped a woman on her bicycle and permanently disfigured her face with a knife.

That was freakin' disgraceful.

I am all for immigration, and pound for pound, Australia takes more UNHCR sponsored refugees than any other country on Earth.

We take more UNHCR refugees than the USA in total.

But, clearly.....Turnbull is responding to the increase in African immigrant related crime here.

Dude, you're desperate if you are quoting that Murdoch toilet paper you call "news"

I dont think you are presenting a valid argument to support your original false point.

All you can muster is a tepid response that somehow the woman who got her faced slashed with a knife by African immigrants is somehow not valid because the media organisation that reported it was owned by Rupert Murdoch.

She was unarmed, innocent and the attack was unprovoked and has ruined her life.

Stay on topic. The point that you were making is this:

You said something like "Victoria does not have a problem with Sudanese or Somali immigrants."

I changed the links in the previous post to meet your elitist standard of media reporting, one which clearly may not be warranted.

My post therefore remains unchanged and you can debate it on the actual points.

And if you are only going to read the ABC, that is OK.

Read on:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-20/african-youth-crime-concerns/4210720

"Police have expressed concern over new figures that show Somali and Sudanese-born Victorians are five times more likely to commit crime than the wider community."

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3571895.htm

"The crime statistics come as no surprise to Abeselom Nega who recently met senior police to discuss ways to tackle the concerns. He says the statistics were confronting."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-18/inquiry-to-consider-revoking-visas-for-migrants-in-gangs/8036774

"He said that his focus was Melbourne, but was worried about violence spreading to other areas of the country."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-21/police-and-experts-gather-in-melbourne-to-discuss-youth-crime/7647594


"The fact is there's a group of very recidivist young offenders that are committing increasingly violent crimes and that does concern us,"

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-28/south-sudanese-parents-sending-kids-to-africa-to-avoid-crime/8064540

"The community has been rocked by a recent rise in arrests of its young people for carjacking and home invasions, and the emergence of the Apex gang, which is made up largely of South Sudanese youth."

The African communities in Melbourne have issues in direct contrast to your first comment.

Malcolm Turnbull may have acted in a populist sense, but Australian residents are concerned about the vicious nature of the Somali and Sudanese crimes committed in Melbourne.

Weekly bludgertrack, April 23rd: Labor now leading 2PP in all states and territories:

()

SOURCE: https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/04/22/bludgertrack-52-8-47-2-labor-3/

Turnbull's dog whistling is successfully appealing to the PHON racist crowd, I see.

Maybe it's enough to save his job after all - at least until the election.

Unless Abbott decides to try and make a comeback.

I mean for crying out loud, Turnbull obviously knows that pandering to the right is a surefire way to lose in 2019, yet he keeps doing it to head off more defections to Bernardi the Nutty.

In a way, I feel sorry for Turnbull. He obviously is aware that moderate policies are the way to go, yet if he pursues them, more people are going to leave for Bernardi or Hanson.

You've lost me there.  Turnbull has proven to be the most spineless conservative hack- even worse this year than I would have expected, and my expectations were NOT good. :P

Liberal's latest statement:

"It’s now been 1000 days since the last people smuggling boat reached Australia and more than three years since the last known death at sea at the hands of people smugglers.

Under Labor, Australia saw:
•   50,000 illegal maritime arrivals;
•   More than 800 people smuggling boats;
•   More than 8,000 children in detention; and
•   More than 1,200 deaths at sea
The Coalition Government has brought maritime people smuggling to a standstill and saved countless lives.

This success has enabled the Government to remove all children from detention and close 17 detention facilities."

Makes sense to me. Although I don't like their tolerance of the large mining companies not paying tax. Liberal's could have forced the oil and gas companies to manufacture their project in Australia, but let them off the hook.

Now, we have lost a lot of revenue as a result.

Cory Bernardi's one-man-band, Australian Conservatives, is set to merge with Family First. Well that lasted long.

EDIT: The initial headline was misleading, Family First will be absorbed by AC at the state and federal level. However, Lucy Gichuhi will apparently still stay in a rump Family First. How silly.

Family First is a joke anyway. Bernardi's new party seems to be very SA-focused. Mark my words, in six years, the Conservatives are going to dissolve when Bernardi runs back to the Liberals.

I never thought, and still don't honestly, he'd last outside of the Libs before 2022. The amusing thing is that he only has name recognition in SA and Xenophon with his merry band of unknowns have really stollen the air from the "anti-establishment, keep the bastards honest" niche.

Let's be honest, the Conservative party is too.

Precisely. Xenophon is on the path to becoming the populist champion he thinks of himself as. He's considered the populist outsider here. He's already more relevant than the Australian Democrats,  and is pretty well liked in here in SA. The only reason Bernardi was elected is those who don't take their vote seriously vote for the Senator at the top of the ticket, and Bernardi was always at the top of the Liberal ticket here.

Mark my words, he'll be a Liberal again before he's up for re-election, and then he'll lose his seat because the Liberals don't exactly play nice with defectors.

Why don't Family First cooperate with Fred Nile's lot in NSW?

A former Liberal Party state director has said in an interview that the Liberals could be 'decimated' If something does nit change.

Link: http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/27/liberal-party-insider-speaks-out/?utm_source=Responsys&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20170428_TND

Because Family First holds some unusual positions for a right wing party. For insance, they want to ses Nauru and Manus Island closed and refugees processed onshore.

HEMP NOW CONSIDERED SAFE TO CONSUME BY FEDERAL GOVT.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/health-ministers-approve-the-legalisation-of-hemp-for-human-consumption-20170427-gvttq3.html

This also means that  hemp will also be considered legal to sell and consume.
 
Hemp has almost no THC, unlike Marijuana, so if you where to consume a product that includes hemp, you probably won't get any side effects from it

Well, budget day is on Tuseday, and another blow for people. Funding for unis are to be cut, fees are going up, and Abbott's 100,000 dollar degress are coming back.

Can we just have another election now, we already know people want this to end.

The victorian state budget for 2017/18 was released today.

The things the state government has done, and it has a good sized surplus to boot (1.2 billion surplus for 2017/18, with a projected 5 year surplus of nearly 9 billion)

The 2 major priorities currently for the current Labor government is improving the standard of public transport across the entire state, and tackling crime. The budget for crime has increased by a whopping 2 BILLION dollars, and funding for various transport projects across the state is up by around that much as well.

Here is the overview papers for the full budget, the full budget can be accessed at the bottom link.
Overview: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201718.budget.vic.gov.au/Overview.pdf

Suburban: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201718.budget.vic.gov.au/Suburban.pdf

Rural & Regional: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201718.budget.vic.gov.au/Rural+and+Regional.pdf

Link to budget: https://www.budget.vic.gov.au/budget-papers

I must also say that I made an error with my last post. Federal budget day is next Tuesday, it was not today.

A poll released today says that 40% of people polled could potentially flip their vote if the coalition doesn't do anything about it by the next election.

The same poll also shows support for a SSM plebiscite has fallen to just 27%.

http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/gay-marriage-could-cost-coalition-government-galaxay-research-poll-shows/news-story/fa7c6e20a170995a56773396fe725601
(Don't read the comments, unless you want to be exposed to all this homophobic garbage)

()

So I haven't followed Australian politics since the election. Why is nothing happening with regard to gay marriage? Wasn't there going to be a referendum?

There's not a majority in the Senate to pass a referendum - Labour,  the Greens and the NXT Senators oppose it because they don't think that a referendum is needed or wanted; and I also think that some oppose it from the right as well.  Unless the Libs have a change in heart it looks like it might have to wait until the ALP get into government sadly

It was not a referendum, as marriage is not a constitutional issue. It wuld have been a NON-BINDING plebiscite, which would have cost hundreds of millions of dollars, would have been divisive, and several MPs were going to vote no regardless of the result.

Btw, we already know that nearly 80 percent of Australians support SSM, which would make the whole thing pointless anyway, and show something we already knew.

I have a question for everyone.

In, which Labor member do you think is the closest analogue we have to Bernie Sanders? This includes policy, personality, everything.

Turnbull's premiership is a lesson for those on the left who think a President John Kasich or a Prime Minister Ruth Davidson wouldn't be so bad.

This. They might be nice people out of politics, but they would be useless as leaders.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-21/pauline-hanson-under-fire-repulsive-bigoted-comments-autism/8640328

Ready for PHONy to nosedive in the polls.

It's a difficult one. I met with Tanya Plibersek once, and she expressed an admiration for Bernie, but I can't think of anhone else.

When you take background/personality into account? Honestly can't think of a good one in the Labour party. Closest in politics overall might be Bob Brown, but he's obviously retired and was a Green.

So, reachTEL have released a poll in their own partisan ways for next years state election in Victoria, and they are showing that the L/NP is up 53-47.

Well, they would, but I don't trust a poll that has NO PRIMARY VOTE FIGURES!
And also, like the last one, it is tucked away behind the paywalls of News Corp's newspapers, but literally nowhere else...

Its paid for by the Lib/Nats afaik, which means its garbage.

Meanwhile here in SA, Weatherill is taking banks to task, taxing them to pay for roads, bridges, education, and so on. Good move.

Naturally, the banks are now throwing everything to Marshall and the Coalition. Turnbull and Xenophon are saying this will stagnate the economy.

I used to like Nick. I hate him now.

Then, can you answer my years-long astonishment to people liking Xenophon. He seems to be a autoritarian paranoid freek to me.

People thought of him as different. The stunts he pulled made him seem more real. He was the populist defender of the people that was needed during the Howard-Rudd-Gillard-Rudd-Abbott years. Part of the problem I think, is his obsession with his new party. He's more concerned with winning seats than he is putting the right ideas forward. Moreover, he has a certain magnetism about him, kind of like Trump in a way.

People thought of him as someone who'd stick up for the. Someone who'd fight to keep their jobs here. Someone who's populist rhetoric seemed real. I was one of them.

In the chaos a few years ago, he seemed to offer some semblance of stability. People were sick of Liberal and Labor, and he seemed to offer the only alternative to them.

I know it was, I just forgot to put that part in.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/massive-boost-for-regional-rail-after-victoria-secures-extra-600m-from-turnbull-20170626-gwz015.html

all this money, yet my line gets LITERALLY, ABSOLUTELY ING NOTHING!!!
IT'S LIKE MY CITY DOESN'T BLOODY EXIST!!!

/rant

Anyway, under the new census figures out today, the size of Australia's House of Reps is set to increase to 151, with one seat gained in Victoria, and the ACT, with one lost in South Australia

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/06/2016-census-figures-cause-change-to-state-representation-in-house-of-representatives.html#comments

Xenophon represents those Labor after Liberal, Liberal after Labor, etc., etc. has ignored. Say what you will about him, but he has certainly given a voice to those who have been voiceless for so long.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-praises-fine-man-cardinal-george-pell-20170629-gx17uk.html

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Pls roll him out of his seat lib party.

Funny, seeing as Pell was charged today.

Scott Ludlam resigns from Australian Senate after finding out he has New Zealand citizenship (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/14/scott-ludlam-resigns-from-australian-senate-after-finding-out-he-has-new-zealand-citizenship)

What a shame. Only man who stood up strong for a public NBN and against domestic surveillance. Beloved for his intense grilling of fellow Senators.

Goodbye Scott. You will be missed.

The Adelaide street preachers are back at it, this time in pamphlet form, and out of everywhere they could have targeted, the targeted my city of Shepparton... (I burnt the one that was delivered at my house, the bin didn't deserve to hold this vile piece of sh**t...)

http://www.sheppnews.com.au/2017/07/21/100681/pamphlet-upsets-angers-many

Here is a page of the pamplet:
https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/20245607_1626284794083054_8759911503090746077_n.jpg?oh=38bbd9de0c15a7e10cc706763d0187bf&oe=59F8392F

In other news, the Victorian Parliament's committee for Euthanasia has wrapped up, and The Age has a nice article that explains what all the conditions are:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/assisted-dying-explained-how-victorias-euthanasia-laws-will-work-if-they-pass-parliament-20170720-gxfbya.html

The conscience vote in both houses of the state Parliament will take place in the next few months.

LOL, section 44 of the constitution is just the gift that keeps on giving, first it's the 2 greens, then the lib, now it's One Nation.

It's also one of the stupidest parts of the Constitution.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-08/vic-opposition-leader-dined-with-alleged-mafia-head-madafferi/8782824

Seems like Daniel Andrews may yet get the last laugh here, considering Guy is so tough on crime.


Also in other news, on the Today show Karl Stefenovic told what is the opinion of a lot of people today in a rather blunt way.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/08/08/08/46/karl-stefanovic-slams-complete-bs-postal-vote-on-same-sex-marriage-in-passionate-call-to-action 

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE DEBATE TO BE SETTLED BY POST AFTER SENATE BLOCKS PLEBISCITE, 122 MILLION DOLLARS TO BE WASTED

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-09/politics-live-august-9/8788216

The plebiscite's 2nd outing in the senate was defeated in a 31-31 tie.

A high court challenge is expected to occur over the postal vote.

To the adult Australians on Atlas:

When you get your ballot paper in the mail in September...

VOTE YES!

And it seems that it's being boycotted by pro-marriage equality groups. This could turn very ugly.

I, for one, am not looking forward to the next few months...

What the f**k is the point of a postal plebescite? For one, it's extremly vulnerable to fraud and tampering, not to mention it requires the taxpayers to fork over $122 million.

This could be over and done with in about 10 minutes, but Turnbull will do anything to placate the far-right nutters.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-will-join-the-conflict-if-north-korea-attacks-the-us-malcolm-turnbull-20170810-gxty5f.html

Good to know that Turnbull won't mind if Australia is destroyed then...
Idiot.

WTF:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-40920141

PLEASE LET THIS BE TRUE!

So, you're a supporter of that racist and disgraceful Constitution?

No, I'm not. If it was up to me, I would try and get a referendum on that things removal so damn quick.

That's the sort of thing you get checked out and corrected before you run for office, not after you've served in public office for twelve years.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-14/barnaby-joyce-is-a-new-zealand-citizen-nz-government-confirms/8804620

New Zealand has confirmed that Joyce is, infact, a citizen of New Zealand.

Wait, I thought the Constitution only caught out dah Greenie commies.

Katter has just withdrawn confidence and supply; which strikes me as something that seems more important than it actually is - makes the situation that much harder for the government in a tight vote if (when is probably more sensible) Joyce has to leave parliament but they should be able to keep something together for a time since you'd have to think that a Nationals by-election victory is the likely outcome.

It all really is rather silly that dual nationals can't be elected to parliament - especially a place like Australia with a large migrant population...

The Coalition still has McGowan for their supply, but what gets interesting if out of the blue, another LNP member goes.

I've got money on a snap election happening next year.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rocked-by-day-of-citizenship-drama-turnbull-government-ponders-nuclear-option-of-referring-labor-mps-to-high-court-20170815-gxwobz.html

LOL, this government is not playing by the rules, and is trying to go for the opposition?!

I look forward to the next election.

The below poster was plastered all over 2 prestigious Melbourne schools yesterday. I cannot believe the Antipodean Resistance haven't all been thrown in jail yet... We beat Nazism in WW2, we will beat them again... If you, for some bizarre reason, want to see all the other bile they've spewed in the past, google it. Basically, if you aren't a nazi, but especially Jewish, LGBTQI, or an immigrant, there are hate posters they have made against you.

https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/20800147_1371648289617916_5314581281000231547_n.jpg?oh=df7033bc7f233de5140add8b0c77ee6a&oe=5A1CE4AB

They probably have friends in the right-wing of the Liberal Party, so weak Turnbull can do nothing.

The citizenship chaos has ensnared more people: Fiona Nash, the Deputy Nationals leader; justice Minister Michael Keenan and Nick Xenophon, the SA crossbencher have all had their citizenships called into question.

NXT MP Rebekha Sharkie has withdrawn her support of the government. Independent MP Cathy McGowan is now the only crossbencher left to have not officially said she does not support the government.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/citizenship-crisis-bombshell-crossbench-decision-leaves-survival-of-the-turnbull-government-in-doubt-20170818-gxzdjn.html

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/socialist-revisionism-mathias-cormanns-doomsday-warning-of-success-exodus-under-bill-shorten-20170823-gy2b34.html

SOCIALIST REVISIONISM!
Cormann's gone crazy.

Have we talked about Abbott confessing that he missed the GFC vote because he got plastered?

This pro-marriage equality poster is appearing on around 8/10 shop front windows in my city.
Not a bad percentage for a city that I expect to have one of the highest yes votes in the country. (all of the talk about marriage equality in Shepparton has been on the pro-yes side)

()

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/theatregoers-at-gay-drama-have-tyres-slashed-in-potential-hate-crime-20170827-gy50al.html

Absolutely disgraceful.

I can go one better https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/more-anti-ssm-posters-surface-in-melbourne-courtesy-of-literal-neo-nazis/ (https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/more-anti-ssm-posters-surface-in-melbourne-courtesy-of-literal-neo-nazis/)

same f[inks]ing group that put up those anti-Semite posters in those schools the week before.

Didn't Shorten and Di Natale say this would happen?

The high court hearing on the marriage equality postal survey starts tomorrow AEST, to continue on Wednesday.

"news"crap's partsan polls have reached Queensland, sowing the Labor government down 53-47 2PP, despite Palaszczuk being ahead in preferred Premier by a massive TEN points.

Most polls show Labor ahead at around 51-53% 2PP, by the way.

The SSM survey will be going ahead.

Get ready for the 2 month long projectile vomit from the No campaign

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-41169928 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-41169928)

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/what-next-ban-on-mum-and-dad-says-hanson/ar-AArQ96J?li=AAavLaF&ocid=spartandhp
S L I P P E R Y  S L O P E ! ! !

oh for f**k's sake...

source: Aus. Associated Press via MSN

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/08/16/xenophon-wont-back-hansons-media-law-deal

GUESS WHAT THE c**nt DOES 3 WEEKS LATER!?
he's a liberal in disguise, and doesn't seem to mind voting for their reforms.

Oh, no, I would take a Liberal before him.

I'm genuinely surprised thanks to recent events, at how sinister the Australian right is.

Also the amount of nonreligious/atheist cultural conservatives in Oz whose whole reason for voting No is because "the other side are a bunch of f*gs.  Like seriously....

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/a-10k-donation-bought-a-property-developer-a-penthouse-meeting-with-matthew-guy-20170918-gyjwd5.html

I hope the Victorian Libs don't remove this corrupt pile of horse sh*t. They deserve to go down in a landslide, 2002 style.

2 lots of postal ballots have been found dumped in laneways

http://www.smh.com.au/national/brunswick-mum-upset-by-dumped-postal-vote-envelopes-discovery-20170918-gyjw8m.html (Found 17 ballots inder her child's cubby house in Brunswick)

http://www.smh.com.au/national/second-pile-of-samesex-marriage-surveys-found-dumped-in-melbourne-laneway-20170919-gyklh2.html (Found in a laneway beween Little collins, and Collins streets, also adressed to Brunswick)

Good to know that the worst has been confirmed.
Also, I don't think it's coincidental that the suburb that both the piles were adressed to is the most left-leaning suburb of Melbourne.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-headbutted-by-yes-campaigner/news-story/663d5a857609b695c6f91d91720f1369?nk=927645ab3c601e2801da47c27d173e9f-1506039857(Tony Abbott 'headbutted' by same sex marraige advocate')

http://www.theage.com.au/national/samesex-marriage-survey-envelopes-found-in-bin-of-mona-vale-apartment-block-20170922-gymxlw.html

It f*king happened again...

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/10/tony-abbott-says-climate-change-is-probably-doing-good

Abbott still a dumbarse.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/technology/australian-car-manufacturing-reaches-the-end-of-the-line-today-as-holden-closes-elizabeth-factory/news-story/4cf69f8466a9750c690d3775f6487d97

Auto manufacturing has ended in Australia.

Abbott was the anti-Obama.
Obama bailed out the Auto industry
Abbott let it die.

Wasn't Abbott the Harper of the Southern Hemisphere.  Essentially both him and Stephen Harper were seen as two sides of the coin.  Interestingly enough both were removed from power right around the same time albeit different methods, Abbott by his party since they knew they were toast with him, while Harper by the electorate (the Tories might have won in Canada if they dumped Harper and got a more centrist leader but that was never going to happen).  I know those two were the most hated in the developed world of conservative leaders so a lot of celebration when both were removed.

Yes, he basically was.

lol.

Except what he said was true.

The man who head-butted Tony Abbot has had his criminal charge upgraded to "Causing harm to a commonwealth official" and now faces up to 10 years Jail.

Considering that the head-butt didn't seem to hurt Abbott all that much, this is a bit harsh imo.

So the AFP raided AWU offices over a donation from 10years ago and it has all blown up in the governments face after it was revealed that a staffer had tipped off the media. Cannot ing wait to vote this pack of useless s out.

I hope Labor gets a surge from this blatant abuse of power,

Senate estimates has been brutal tonight. By the end of the week I think Turnbull is going to lose 3 ministers.

It is obvious who the people blame for the NBN debacle:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNClQBCVwAABOEK.jpg

Looking at past results it seems in the two party vote both parties have a floor of 47% and ceiling of 53% so Labor is pretty close to its ceiling.  When it comes to first preference that is a different story, but it seems pretty unusual for either to go above 53% or under 47%.

BARNABY JOYCE HAS BEEN DISQUALIFIED FROM PARLIAMENT, COALITION LOSES MAJORITY FOR NOW.

The others that have been disqualified are Fiona Nash, Both greens senators, and Malcolm Roberts.
 
Xenophon and Canavan have been spared.

The house numbers are now:
L/NP: 75 (45 Lib, 21 Lib National, 9 National) (-1)
LAB: 69
OTH:5
Vacant: 1

Senate:
L/NP 28 (20 Lib, 5 Lib National, 3 National) (-1)
LAB: 26
GRN: 7 (-2)
PHONy: 3 (-1)
NXT: 3 (Will be 2 after the 2018 SA election)
Lambie, Hinch, CONservatives, Independent (Fmr. Family First), Liberal Democrat: 1 each
Vacant: 4

Could an election come soon?  Would be interesting to see both New Zealand and Australia go Labour close together as usually it seems Australia and New Zealand more often than not have prime-ministers of opposite political stripes.

Barnaby will almost certainly win the by-election in his seat, as he will be eligible to run again, seeing that he has since renounced his NZ citizenship, so I don't see it happening.

Victoria 2018 state election poll: Essential, Jul-Sep 2017

2PP:
LAB: 52 (0)
L/NP: 48 (0)

Primary: (2014)(change from 2014)
LAB: 39 (38)(+1)
L/NP: 42 (42)(0)
GRN: 10 (11)(-1)

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/state-voting-intention-victoria-6

At least we now have a reputable poll for the Victorian state election next year that discredits the Murdoch L/NP polls.

Status of state legislatures:
Red: LAB Majority (Pink: Minority)
Blue: L/NP Majority (L. Blue: Minority)
Black: No Upper House
Upper house is LAB+Progressive Parties/Independents (A by-election in the TAS Council seat of Pembroke has flipped that chamber to labor today)

Legislative Assemblies:
()

Legislative Councils:
()

John Alexander has resigned, causing a by-election in the key seat of Bennelong... (http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/11/11/liberal-mp-alexander-resigns-over-citizenship.html)

lol, with the cross bench not supporting him, this is a dangerous time for the government. Sure, Bennelong and New England will almost certainly stay in the coalition's hands, but by-elections throw up some extremely weird results sometimes, and there is always the chance another MP falls.

It's the former John Howard seat?

Yes, yes it is.

Which the Liberals cannot take for granted - Labor won it in '07, and it's transitioned from safe Liberal to swingy territory (when Howard first won it in 1974, it covered a lot of territory now in North Sydney, which is still blue-blooded Liberal areas, demographic change in the areas now in Bennelong, like Ryde, has contributed as well).

Newspoll 55/45

Insane. LNP primary is 34%, it was 39% in 2007 when they lost 22 seats. But this is a historic low.

Newspoll details:

()

BREAKING: Lambie has resigned from the Senate, as the UK home office has confirmed that she is a UK citizen.

The plebiscite is over. The people have voted yes with an overwhelming 60%. Less than 40% voted no.

Why was NSW the lowest yes percentage...I would've expected it to be Queensland?

https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/results/

The Greens have GAINED the Victorian state assembly seat of Northcote from Labor. Swing is currently...

14.3 PERCENT!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/11/18/northcote-election-live/#comments

Greens are getting 47.9% in just first preferences...

Why do inner city intellectuals hate us rural folk...

Largely because of Western and parts of Southern Sydney - a coalition of conservative Muslims and Christians (particularly Catholics and megachurch types), amongst others, countered the overwhelming Yes from northern/eastern Sydney, and the lesser Yes from areas like the Sutherland Shire (going from the electorates that voted No and their demographics).

Conversely, only three outback Queensland seats voted No, so most of Australia's "redneck" areas voted Yes. Two suburban Melbourne seats also voted No, both in poorer areas of Melbourne.

Polls have closed in the New England by-election, Barnaby will almost certainly win again, though probably will win on preferences (FPV below 50%). The AEC is doing a preference count between Barnaby and Labor, however there is a good chance that they'll have to abandon it, what with 17!!! candidates.

First 3 tiny rural booths in, Barny is getting 76.7% FPV, up on last time. 264 votes total.

From Antony's commentary.
"18:21 - My contacts reckon that Independent Rob Taber is more likely to finish second rather than Labor. Time will tell, but if the Nationals poll more than 50% of the first preference vote, the wrong choice of notional preference count will not matter."

Two results pages:
ABC - http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/new-england-by-election-2017/results/ (http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/new-england-by-election-2017/results/)
AEC (official results) - http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21364-135.htm (http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21364-135.htm)

With 15 booths in Barny's up almost 13%, so it looks like he's going to romp in.

Probably would have been far closer if the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers were running, they've been going extremely well in NSW state by-elections this parliament, including gaining a seat from the Nats!

Just noticed this, in Niangala Barny's up 9.8 to 98.3%, with 100.00% TPP!!!!!
What a shining example of free, multi-party elections!

From Antony on twitter: #newenglandvotes - only one booth so far where National vote has fallen, and that was Nowendoc down from 94% to 88%.

Currently informal votes are 3rd

This is mad, a 10.7 percent swing TO the government!

And Antony Green has called it:
"The Nationals have won the New England by-election, Barnaby Joyce re-elected with a swing in his favour."

This is the first bit of genuinely, no strings attached, good news for the Coalition. Turnbull is not going to shut up about this for a loooooong time.

Barnaby's vote is down in only 4/40 booths on first preferences

51/103 booths but only around 13% counted, due to the disparity in size between the rural and urban (Armidale/Tamworth) booths.

I have got no idea whatsoever on what this means will happen in Bennelong in a fortnight. No idea whatsoever.

I think this might be a record swing to a government in a by-election, as well as being pretty high up on the list of largest 2PP swings in a by-election.

18.4% Reporting

I'm having to keep reminding myself of the swing here, given that in this NSW parliament we've had 3 by elections in seats held by the Nats, in those seats the Nats have had swings against them of:
21.8% in Orange
19.3% in Marray
Only (!!!) 10.0% in Cootamundra, however it would of been much larger if the SFF had been second instead of Labour the swing would have been far greater

67/103 booths and 26.24% reporting

We're now starting to get in the big Town booths from places like Armidale, Glen Innes, Guyra, Inverell and Tenterfield, though still nothing in from Tamworth, which was Tony Windsor's base

2 Tamworth and 2 Armidale booths in, swing of around 6%, so Barny's swing will decline however there is no chance of a revival for any other candidate

78/103, 37% reporting. We're getting more of the big booths in.

The AEC should be happy, 13 candidates failing to reach 4% so 13 lost deposits of $1000, or in total $13,000 dollars, or about $9900 US at the current exchange rate.

with 81/103 booths in Barny's first preference vote is down in only 6.

All 4 of Tamworth's central booths reporting, showing swings of between 10% and 17% to Barny

89/103 booths and 45.6% reporting, the reason that the % reporting is so low compared to booths reporting is that around 30% of the vote is pre-poll, which will come in from just 7 booths which we probably won't see results from tonight.

I have no idea what Labor's statement is going to be, they might trumpet their 4% increase in vote share, or increasing their vote by 60% however no matter how you spin it although this is tied with 2013 as their best result since 1998, if the Barny's vote holds up then this will be the Nats best first preference result in this seat since 1966 and their best 2 party or 2 candidate preferred result EVER

Inverell pre-poll is the only pre-poll currently in.

94/103 booths (50.4%) reporting 2PP, 95 booths (54.9%) reporting first preferences. The one booth only reporting first preferences in Inverell Pre-Poll, which with around 5,000 votes explains the large difference between the two percentages despite only one booths difference. Only one on the day polling booth hasn't reported, Quirindi which is one of, if not the largest on the day polling booth in the electorate, with around 2,500 votes.

After Quirindi I don't think we'll get any more results in tonight. The count will continue tomorrow with Pre-Polls and the Hospital votes.

102/108 booths, 81.17% reporting. All of the Pre-Polls are now in, all that is left now is Hospital, Absent, Provisional, Declaration pre-poll and Postal votes.

MP Tim Wilson has proposed to his partner on the floor of the House.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-tim-wilson-proposes-to-partner-ryan-bolger-on-the-floor-of-parliament-20171204-gzy2vb.html

It's nice to see something nice come out of this ing awful 45th Parliament.

That being said, for the 3rd time in history and in this term of Parliament a majority government lost a vote on the floor of the HoR over Manus. Timely reminder that as far as we as a society progress internally we have much to be ashamed of internationally.

The division that legalized same sex marriage in Australia.
()

Each side of the chamber has a capacity of 90, yet they managed to fit almost all of the 146 voting for it onto one side, WITH VACANT SEATS!!!

Also, Bob Katter has officially became unhinged last night, and continued today...

Last night: https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/bob-katter-same-sex-marriage-speech-house-of-representatives/

Today: https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/bob-katter-used-his-15-minutes-on-marriage-equality-to-say?utm_term=.ebWaQrdDw#.qrQ7e4K0a

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-the-other-life-of-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/ac8a5a75b3f35e9954b4ef517a7fd156
Hard to imagine this was just a few years ago.

Quite embarrassingly I've completely forgotten about the Bennelong by-election. John Alexander is back in, with a 5.6% swing against him. Kristina Keneally has conceded, and I'm 95% sure that she'll be appointed to replace Sam Dastyari in the Senate.

Only one Pre-Poll left to report tonight, the BLV (Blind and Low Vision) Pre-Poll. Hospital Teams will come in in a few days time, however the winner isn't in doubt.

Newspoll, SA election 2018.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/12/19/newspoll-sa-best-32-liberal-29-labor-27-south-australia/

PRIMARY VOTE:
SA-BEST: 32%
Labor: 29%
Liberal: 27%

2PP: UNCALCULATABLE

PREFERRED PREMIER:
Nick Xenophon: 46%
Jay Weatherill: 22% (INC. PREMIER)
Steven Marshall: 19%

I simply cannot wait for the SA election, it's going to be completely mad. It's just like how if NXT had just got a few more percentage points in a good few SA seats in 2016 (enough to get to 2nd) they would of won a good deal more.
The map is going to be mad, I think the NXT will win a few unlikely seats which are currently marginal on Penultimate count numbers along the line of 35-33 (NXT)-32. Preferences are going to be key just about everywhere, and we know from 2016 and before that Lib preferences favour NXT about 60-40, Labor preferences favour NXT 75-25, and NXT preferences are all over the place, though usually favouring Labor.
On my numbers these seats are:
Barker - Lib beat the NXT 55-45
Boothby - 5.1% margin between Labor and NXT on the sixth count, when NXT was eliminated, NXT would of certainly beat the Libs given their preference flow statewide.
Grey - Lib beat the NXT 52-48, and the Labor preference flow to the NXT was 5 points less than average.
Sturt - On the fifth count, were NXT were excluded, NXT were only 1.5% behind Labor candidate, and although it would have been a lot closer Pyne already had 47.2% of the vote and Labor's preference flow to NXT would of had to be around 90%, beyond even Green to Labor levels.
Wakefield - On the Fifth count the Libs were ahead of NXT by 4.2%, and given that NXT preferences favoured Labor 64-36, no doubt it would of been much closer than 61-39 in real life. NXT wouldn't win, unless Liberal preferences favoured them around 80-20.

Wierd, if I was South Australian, I would preference both Labor and Liberals before Xenophon. He's a phony populist who bans to ban everything.

I can actually see a plausible situation with Xenophon being the next premier. In my eyes if SA Best get 10+ seats, and are holding the balance of power then his main concession might be him being Premier, particularly if Labor and the Liberals are near tied, so parliament is something like LAB 18, LIB 18, SA BEST 11, then Xenophon is making up about 3/8ths of the government him leading wouldn't be out of the question. Of course I think that if the three parties are near tied in seats (16-16-15ish) then I think that Xenophon would almost certainly be premier.

I think you mean plans to ban, not bans to ban.
Anyway, Xenophon's main tenet isn't banning stuff, bar Pokies (which really wouldn't be too bad given the societal problems they cause), but rather his main policy is SA First!, that's why his party is called SA Best. He's a populist, just like almost every successful SA premier. If you want an idea of what the model SA premier is then I would suggest that some reading on Thomas Playford IV would be a beneficial undertaking, given he ruled SA for 27 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Playford_IV (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Playford_IV)

I think that I should emphasise this point. SA is a deeply populist state, and Xenophon has spent years tailoring his image to fit perfectly for South Australia. SA is a state with a giant chip on its shoulder. They are the Manufacturing state, and Australian manufacturing has but disappeared over the last 20 years, and SA of course has been the far worst hit. The only thing going for them is the Barossa Valley (Wine, Wine and more Wine, it's the only thing now going for them, and likewise the stereotype of a South Australian has evolved from just a Working Class Bogan to a Working Class Bogan Wine Snob.).
Xenophon is just about perfect for SA, and that's why they love him so much.
For Americans I would put it like this; South Australia is Australia's Rust Belt (just with more wine.) Just like the rust belt SA is very receptive to populism, (though they have a far longer experience of it than the Rust Belt)

To simplify for Americans, SA is the Rust Belt plus Vineyards.

This strikes me as being an election that's hard to poll: as is usually the case when you have insurgent parties rising from almost nowhere.  Add in the fact that their infrastructure will be worse than the majors and how rigid Australia's two-party system is and you get to a point where I think that Xenophon will dissapoint: he'll get seats but not that many.  Although with an unpopular Liberal federal government and an ALP government that's been there for years and which has lost the TPP vote to the Liberals in the last two elections; this is the time where a third party should do well if one is ever going to do well.

A 30/30/30 election will prove ungovernable long term though; the lower house will be... odd and the Upper House; when you add in the seats that the Greens, the Shooters and (possibly) One Nation will win and considering that it uses PR that will just be a total mess and whoever is in government will need some kind of formal arrangement with someone.  That's the issue that Xenophon has: their party hasn't got the firm base that the LNP or the ALP have: which means that if they lean towards one side they'll annoy the other - especially if they end up being the junior partner since global trends suggest that Junior partners in coalitions or other arrangements tend to explode and lose significant support in the election after - look at the Lib Dems in the UK since 2010, or the PvdA in the Netherlands recently - and the two of them are established parties and not new populist forces with odd coalitions.

Apparatus the Best plan is to run in only 20 electorates at the moment, although that may change.

If their private polling is anything like that you'd have to think that it will.  Although finding a full slate of candidates (including for the LC where they'll need to stand a full slate to avoid getting more votes than they have candidates standing) while avoiding bad or... dodgy candidates for a new party is always incredibly hard and they don't want to be embarrassed.

Knowing Xenophon it'll change. To me it is almost unconceivable, especially with polling showing a 3-way tie, that he will not run candidates in nigh on every electorate.

Xenophon has very good party infrastructure in SA for a third party, remember he's been around since 1997.

I just read a good article from the ABC but I would just outline the headline as it makes a good point.
"Popularity was never Nick Xenophon's problem. It's what comes next that's unknown."

The "good point" is that they have nothing to say?

Search up the article's title, it actually is a very good read as they most certainly have something to say.

The infrastructure needed for a party that's primarily contesting Legislative Council or Senate seats is very different from that for a party that's going to try and contest every seat available in order to try and win and form a government.  While they have grown recently its really been very quick and speedy - four years ago they only contested the Legislative Council and even then only elected one member of the eleven and even two years ago they were clearly a third party even though they did very well - and you don't want any growing pains to impact you right before you need to start campaigning.  Add in the fact that they need to recruit candidates for every seat for both houses and that because this is such a different election they can't assume that certain seats are unwinnable and therefore just stand paper candidates there and that can be an issue, especially if after nomination day you discover that some of your candidates are either terrible or have... dodgy histories.

I mean its not a firm barrier and there are obviously examples of parties rising from nowhere to do incredibly well to the point where the above weren't issues because people were inspired to vote for them enough to balance that stuff out - to use anglosphere examples, look at the NDP federally in Quebec in 2011 and the provincially in Alberta in 2016 but even then that's not entirely comparable since its a party that's established elsewhere in a country suddenly jumping up and winning in places where no one ever thought that they would.  The issue also is that personality parties (and that's what Xenophon is; its not based on anything other than the leader) tend to be very unstable in that they could have lots of splits and fragment very quickly, especially if anything happens to Xenophon.  I'm not saying that they haven't a shot because that'd be silly to say about any party in their position but its an uphill battle and they need to work incredibly hard over the next few months to have a shot at being the lead partner of any government in the state, and there's still an big chance of a 1998 Queensland style situation or even worse where they're on the edge of a large breakthrough but they don't quite get enough first preference votes to be in contention in the vast majority of seats. 

Also, you do realise that you can link articles?  Its not hard to link something that you find interesting if you want to talk about it; and it makes it a lot more likely that people will read it and talk about it.

Former WA Premier Colin Barnett has resigned his seat of Cottesloe, causing a by-election. Labor isn't running so it's between the Liberals and the Greens, and the Libs will win it.

St. Paddy's day is gonna be busy day for elections: Cottesloe (WA LA), and Batman (Federal) by-elections, and the SA election.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/barnaby-joyce-fighting-like-cornered-tiger-to-hold-on-grattan/9454006 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/barnaby-joyce-fighting-like-cornered-tiger-to-hold-on-grattan/9454006)

A sex scandal involving Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, has the potential to bring down the Turnbull government.

Will it?

SA-BEST is now running 35 candidates

https://sabest.org.au/candidates/house-of-assembly/

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-23/barnaby-joyce-resigns/9477616?pfmredir=sm

It brought him down at least. Maybe he'll have time to spend with his family. Err... families.

#PutOutYourBeetroots #Barnabye

As expected, Michael McCormack has been elected as the new leader of the Nationals, and will take Joyce's position as Deputy PM.

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Labor's won the Batman by-election.

The Liberals will form majority government in South Australia, and Steve Marshall will be the next premier.

Something very important we all must remember, Turnbull is currently on 28 lost in a row, so in maybe 6 weeks we get a giant Abbott meltdown over 30 lost in a row!