Talk Elections

Time to start this thread, as the 2020 presidential primary season is upon us.  I will post news about the potential 2020 presidential candidates making moves towards running in this thread, including their public statements on the matter, visits to early primary states, etc.

First up: Tom Cotton headed to South Carolina:

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/3a167f82393241a281cceb57aaa47e5e/SC--GOP-Silver-Elephant-Dinner


Last year the event was headlined by Priebus, but the previous four years it was Jindal, Cruz, Rubio, and Santorum, all of whom went on to run for president.

Oh. YEAH.

It's on like Donkey Kong up in this. Thanks for taking on the duty, Mr. Morden!

Exciting.

It's never too early :P.

Wikipedia mentions Justin Amash, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio as potential Republican candidates, as well as Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo on the Democratic side. There is also, of course, Kanye West, although I doubt he'll actually go through with it.

Feel The Cotton!

(That's actually clever considering that cotton is a material you can feel #JokeExplainer)

If D wins 2016,

it is obvious that Cotton & Haley will run. Maybe Paul again if we get stuck in a terrible intervention. I would like to see Baker run but 4 years is not enough time for the pro-life simpletons to give up their sway in the R party. Rubio can't run unless he's in the governors office in 2018 and even then it'll look terrible, like he never wants to hold a job - he wouldn't be successful against cotton or haley. I am confident Rubio will not be have a successful potus run in 2020.

Adding Gardner, Mike Lee, Flake, Sasse, Ernst and Thune as potentials.

If they win relection: portman & ayotte

If R wins in 2016,

Booker, Harris, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, & Murphy.

Right, but that's mixing up people who have themselves said or done something concrete to indicate an interest in running, and those for whom others have speculated that they might run.  The purpose of this thread is to compile tangible evidence that points towards interest on the part of the potential candidate himself (or herself).  So if someone explicitly says that they're not ruling out running, post that here.  Or if they go to an early primary state or go to CPAC or something, post that here.  Whatever indicators we can find out there for presidential candidates, that should be posted here.

In this story from a few days ago, the New York Times said that "Rubio is likely to run for president again in 2020":

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/28/us/politics/ted-cruz-names-friends-but-silence-from-gop-brass-deafens.html?mtrref=undefined&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&_r=0

But it's not clear what that's based on.  Should be noted that during Rubio's post-dropout press Q&A, he was asked about a future run for president, and he said that he wasn't thinking that far ahead.

Some more possible indicators…this year, in addition to the remaining presidential candidates themselves, the following people did speeches at CPAC:

Joni Ernst
Carly Fiorina
Mike Lee
Paul Ryan
Tim Scott
Scott Walker

Fiorina and Walker of course ran for prez this year, but they’d already dropped out of the race by the time of CPAC, so their appearances could be read as interested in either being VP this year or president in 2020.

Also, the Des Moines Register had a story a few days ago about the fact that many eventual presidential candidates from years past started out by doing surrogate visits to Iowa for other candidates in the previous cycle.  Here are the names of some of the out-of-state politicians who visited Iowa in the past year in order to campaign for their presidential candidate of choice.  Some of these might run for president themselves in 2020 or later, or maybe for vice president this year:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/27/whos-running-president-2020-iowa-visits-offer-hints/82230962/

Tammy Baldwin
Corey Booker
Julian Castro
Bill de Blasio
Kirsten Gillibrand
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Tom Perez

Marsha Blackburn
Jim DeMint
Cory Gardner
Mike Lee
Kristi Noem
Sarah Palin
Ben Sasse

A few other tidbits about individual candidates.

Justin Amash last year:

link (http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2015/05/rep_justin_amash_keeps_preside.html)


In 2014, the New York Post reported that Cuomo was looking at running for president in 2020, should the Republicans win the White House this time around:


Last year, Booker said he didn’t want to be president:

IT BEGINS!

I can share more a bit later, but I was at CPAC this year, and some of them (like Walker and Ryan) had very high profile speaking times (Walker was the opening speaker, for instance).  But, I actually think some of Walker's moves might be towards getting nominated this year as a compromise choice.

Depending on which Republican wins, there might even be a primary challenge. If it's Senator Cruz or Governor Kasich, then they'll be safe, but if it's trump...

33 Senate seats will be up for grabs in 2020. Among these 33 seats, there are some Senators who might be interested in running for President: Tom Cotton (R-AR), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Gary Peters (D-MI), Al Franken (D-MN), Ben Sasse (R-NE), Cory Booker (R-NJ), Mark Warner (D-VA), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).

Back in November, an Arkansas lawmaker proposed a bill that would allow candidates to seek multiple federal offices in the same election. I don't know what's the status of that bill right now.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/11/tom-cotton-president-2020_n_6849064.html

One other CPAC note:

Scott Walker stayed around CPAC for a few hours after his speech and was willing to talk with attendees and take pictures with them.  He was by far the most high profile politician to do that (the only other ones that I met at anything other than a formal organized event were Kelli Ward and Jim Gilmore).

Did Kanye say he'd run as an independent, or as a Democrat? A Kanye primary of President Hillary would be one for the books.

Walker keeping his options open. (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/scott-walker-republican-wisconsin-221549)

Some excerpts:

I wonder if this means he is keeping his options open for 2016 as a white knight nominee?

Rubio allies are urging him to run again in 2020, and he's said to be open to it:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/04/politics/marco-rubio-political-future/index.html

You have to have a lot of balls (Can Angel confirm?) to think about running for president again 3 weeks after getting demolished in your home state by a reality TV star and dropping out of the race in disgrace.

Rubio's such a petty glory hound.

Murphy won't win the senate seat though. #rondesantis2016

If a Republican wins, Julian Castro or Sherrod Brown can be possibilities

President Ted Cruz
Vice President Scott Walker
Secretary of State John Bolton



Democratic Primary

Elizabeth Warren Nominee
Andrew Coumo
Cory Booker
Bernie Sanders
Donald J Trump
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb



General Election

Electoral votes

Cruz 443 - Warren 95



Swing stages

California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii 
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
Florida
North Carolina
Arizona
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Virginia
West Virginia
Ohio
Indiana
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire

TN Volunteer would be proud.

Are we sure that this poster isn't him?

No. It wouldn't surprise me in the least, though.

()

I left blank the states that were unclear based on the rest, but I guess that Warren is just a Northeast candidate in this map.  Even all of the others would only get her to 90.

Guys, can we please leave your own personal predictions of who should run or what the electoral map will look like for other threads?  There are plenty of other threads for that.  This thread is for tracking news on what the prospective 2020 presidential candidates are doing.

The news today is that Mike Lee is looking to move into the Senate leadership:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/lee-leadership-senate-221818


I leave it to you to decipher whether that means Lee is more or less likely to run for president in a few years.

I wasn't making a prediction- I was just putting his into a map form.  Sorry, though!

Sherrod Brown does not want to be President.

Rubio might as well run for POTUS again. Being demolished a second time in a longshot presidential bid is not as bad as being demolished by Putnam in the gubernatorial primary.

In yet another sign that Rubio is looking to run again, he's apparently planning to avoid taking any job on Wall Street because it would be a political liability for a future run:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/04/05/rubio-thinks-wall-st-is-kiss-death-for-second-run-at-white-house.html

Because I only started this thread a few weeks ago, I'm still catching up on news from months ago.  E.g., in February, Justin Amash sounded like someone with presidential ambitions:

http://rare.us/story/would-justin-amash-run-for-president/

If Hillary Clinton wins in 2016:
Democratic: Hillary Clinton/Thomas Perez
Republican: Marco Rubio/John Kasich x
[Republicans win in a landslide]

If Kasich wins in 2016:
Democratic: Elizabeth Warren/Andrew Cuomo
Republican: John Kasich/Marco Rubio x
[Kasich reelected in sizable victory]

-If Cruz or Trump wins nomination in 2016, they automatically loose to Hillary Clinton, they are not even within 8 points of her, but Kasich is 7 up in the latest poll.

tbh I'd rather have Cruz than this guy

He'd do awful among black voters with that slogan... :P

Ryan not ruling out a run for president in 2020 or beyond:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/will-paul-ryan-run-for-president-222189

That's sounds like a slavery quote

Christie says it’s his intention to return to the private sector when his term ends, but says “you never say never” on a future run for president or VP:

http://nj1015.com/christie-its-time-for-me-to-make-some-money/

Sounds like an ad slogan for a tampon.

Susana Martinez is using her PAC like someone with an eye on national office, whether that be the presidency or the vice presidency:

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/366095d9fa6b4ebaa91c291c2c1f11a2/NM--New-Mexico-Governor-Fundraising


In other Martinez news, she’s just gone hard after Trump, so I wouldn’t be expecting her to show up on his veep list in the near future:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/19/new-mexico-gov-susana-martinez-makes-sharp-critique-of-trump-at-rga-donor-event/

TAMPON TOM FOR 2020

I don't think Trump will run as a Democrat.  O'Malley and Webb are probably done, unless they get a Secretaryship and run on their successes in that.

Can Tom Cotton run for both Senate and President?

The AR legislature passed a law recently specifically so that Cotton could.

On the other hand, it can depend on what happens in 2016. If Ted Cruz beats Donald Trump in a brokered convention, Trump could be so very angry that he could declare a third-party candidacy, thus splitting the conservative vote including in Arkansas. If happens like this we might witness the increase of a Democratic legislature in this state, which could put in danger the law you're talking about.

Rand Paul on whether he’ll run next time:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/rand-back-senate-222281

Sasse keynoting an IAGOP Polk County dinner. (https://twitter.com/jasonnobleDMR/status/726191718215766017)

Top Rubio supporter says he thinks Rubio runs again. (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-endorsement-222686)

Rubio himself implied as much in his drop out speech.

I think that's right.  With Trump as the nominee this time, Cruz is pretty much a lock to run again in 2020.  So yeah, Rubio would probably prefer that Cruz be nominated this time, so that he'll be out of the picture by 2020.  :P

With Trump now the presumptive Republican nominee, I have to assume that we are so far through the looking glass as a country that a Kanye run is absolutely a real possibility.

Do we have to consider the possibility of a Trump vs. Kanye general election (assuming that Kanye runs as a Democrat)?

Mike Lee has managed to get himself on the RNC Rules Committee:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/twelve-thirty-seven/2016/05/mike-lee-convention-rules-committee-222758

which means that he might just have a hand in any early changes being made in the rules for the 2020 presidential primaries (which Lee himself might be running in).

Cruz 2020:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/ted-cruz-faces-reality-and-turns-to-2020/481152/

Santorum told me that he still wants to be president.  Let's see if he gives it another go!

Are we looking at our new Harold Stassen?

Ryan talks 2020, denies interest (but what else would you expect him to say?):

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279213-ryan-ill-step-down-as-convention-chairman-if-trump-asks

Also against an incumbent president of his own party?

You really are drinking a hell of a lot of Kool Aid.

no, he's just gonna wheedle a cabinet spot out of someone and then assassinate everyone above him

Cotton gives a non-denial (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/12-questions-for-tom-cotton) denial of his interest to Dave Catanese, says he'll be campaigning for GOP Senate candidates this fall. (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/tom-cotton-gets-a-jump-start-on-2020-in-south-carolina)

No, just this ;)

()

NYT: "Sasse and Cotton are widely seen as angling for a run." (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/12/us/politics/paul-ryan-caught-between-desire-for-gop-unity-and-future-agenda.html?_r=0)

I know Arkansas cleared the way for Cotton to run for POTUS and re-election to the Senate, but can Sasse do the same in Nebraska?

What if the Arkansas legislature goes to a Democratic majority in November because of Trump?

Tom Cotton would beat Walker/Cruz as most hateable face

The Arkansas Democratic Party is dead.

22:30 of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF4GSbqEIEE

Rubio asked if he’ll become a lobbyist, run for governor in 2018, run for president in 2020, etc.?  Rubio rules out becoming a lobbyist or running for governor.  Doesn’t address the question of whether he might run for president again.

Hot damn that might be the worst campaign slogan ever if he went with that.

Jindal? Tanned, Rested, Ready.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/732402556903821313

No it's not impossible at all. There are many examples in history :

-In 1952, General Dwight D. Eisenhower was never elected in office but easily won the presidency.

-In 1968, former vice-president Richard Nixon was out office but succesfully ran for President and won on November 1968.

-In 1980, former California governor Ronald Reagan was out of office but easily won the Republican nomination and beat President Jimmy Carter by a landslide.

-In 2012, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was out of political office but became a successful presidential candidateby winning the Republican nomination.

So Rubio can be a successful presidential candidate in 2020 even without being in office. If there's really a recession under Hillary Clinton's term, the Republicans will know that to win the White House in order to grow the economy and get America back on track, they need to win more Hispanic votes and Marco Rubio is the best positionned to do so. In addition, if he plans to run for president again in 2020 while being a private citizen in the next 4 years, I think Rubio could work for a think tank to bring up some alternatives to Clinton's bad policies, then campaign and fundraise for Republican mid-term candidates in 2018 (like Romney did in 2010 before running for President in 2012) which is likely to lead to a Republican supermajority. Then Rubio will surely be viable enough to run for President in 2020.

Also neither Clinton nor Trump are currently in office, and one of them will be the next President, so....

But I think Rubio was being sarcastic.

More Cruz 2020 talk:

http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Cruz-what-next-7729331.php

But he will likely be our governor so He will probably be in office

But his approval rating is underwater.

Ed Kilgore has a new story on Cotton, and how he's positioning himself for either the Trump or post-Trump GOP:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/tom-cotton-has-both-a-trump-and-post-trump-plan.html

Considering how wrong people's 2016 predictions were even a year before, let alone 4 years before, I'll just throw out a curve ball and saw Democratic Nominee Kamala Harris and Republican Nominee Tim Scott.

Uh, I'll have you know my Dem prediction in the past 3 years was right on. ;)

In this story about Rubio saying that he’s up for speaking at this year’s RNC, he says it’s a “safe assumption” that he’ll run for office again:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/26/politics/marco-rubio-going-to-convention-donald-trump/index.html

Do you follow Florida politics at all?

Of course he'll run again-for President only. Anything else is a demotion in his eyes, even Governor, and he can't do to Putnam what he did to Jeb and expect the RPOF or anyone of any remote importance what so ever in Tallahassee to go along.

Yeah, you and everyone else's prediction :P

Oh how quickly we forget the hype...

- She won't even run
- Warren will jump in and beat her
- Sanders' summer surge is the end of her
- Biden will jump in and beat her
- Sanders' January surge is the end of her
- Sanders' NH win is the end of her
- Sanders' Michigan win is the end of her
- Sanders March-early April winning streak is the end of her

Kinda remember the same thing after Iowa, SC, Super Tuesday, etc. for Bernie. It's all how you see the world, I guess.

Again, you assume everyone is a Berniebro. Not remotely true.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/marco-rubio-campaign-223696

Tom Cotton running for President? Uh, no thanks.

Cotton is asked about 2020, and invokes Dumb & Dumber:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/tom-cotton-run-future-223673

I met Tom Cotton once or twice. He's "meaner than a snake and smarter than you are".

So Ted Cruz but whiter?

Cotton is a neoconservative who supports/supported raising the minimum wage. A strange mixture of Huckabee, Cruz, and McCain.

Cruz will be attending the Faith & Freedom conference. (https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/738079118558822400)

I think supreme FF Ernie Chambers will do his best to prevent that.

Numerous 2016 presidential candidates who could conceivably run again will be there (including the current nominee, Donald Trump):

http://www.roadtomajority.com

Carson
Cruz
Fiorina
Rubio

Huckabee, Kasich, and Paul are invited, but looks like not confirmed to attend at this point.

Meanwhile Blackburn and Ernst are confirmed to attend, potentially to audition for vice president.

Cruz keeping in touch with donors, Sasse has national staff onboard already, Walker fundraising for RGA that he's expected to chair in 2018. Cotton travelling to CA, staffing up and will attend Roast and Ride in August, Rubio keeping in touch with donors. (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/2020-contenders-donald-trump-223904)

From that story, it sounds like Cotton is being the most open about his 2020 ambitions:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/senate-sasse-ben-223886

Seems they dont have much faith in Donald

I just received an email from the O'Malley campaign thanking me for my financial support and it closed with a statement that we should "never stop fighting". It was signed "see you soon".

As if it wasn't completely obvious he was going to try again at some point.

Since you are a Marylander, do you think that means a statewide bid in 2018 or what? Dutch Ruppersburger will be 73 in 2019, too, and I think that's the district O'Malley lives in.

Cotton, Ryan and Sasse are attending Romney's E2 event, Sasse and Ryan will speak.  (http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/08/politics/mitt-romney-donald-trump-summit/index.html)

Walker will also be at Romney's E2. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/at-romney-summit-anti-trump-republicans-in-exile-ponder-their-partys-future/2016/06/09/8c4aed3e-2e50-11e6-9b37-42985f6a265c_story.html)

Update: I guess this is happening now.  The potential 2020ers who actually ended up showing up to speak are:

http://www.roadtomajority.com/RTM_Agenda_1.pdf

Paul
Rubio
Carson (hey, he ran before, maybe he’ll do it again)
Fiorina (same)

Huckabee was a no show.  And Cruz, despite being advertised as a speaker in the tweet RogueBeaver linked to, doesn’t actually show up on the program.

More talk from a friend of Rubio that Rubio plans to run for president in 2020:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/what-will-marco-rubio-do-224274

Sasse is writing a book. (https://twitter.com/michael_hendrix/status/743118867505909760)

Wikipedia now mentions a LOT more people: Kaine, Cuomo, Patrick, and Warren for Democrats, and Christie, Cotton, Cruz, Haley, Kasich, Paul, Pence, Rauner, Rubio, Sasse, and Walker for the Republicans (plus both potential incumbent Presidents).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2020

Yeah, but as I said earlier in the thread, Wikipedia mixes together people who've made solid hints that they're interested in running and people who haven't done anything to indicate an interest in running, yet are being speculated about on blogs.  For example, they list Kaine, but it's based on nothing.  They link to a National Review story that talks about how Kaine wants to be Clinton's running mate, which then speculates that if Clinton loses the general election, her running mate would be in a good position for 2020.

The purpose of this thread is more to talk about actual hints from the candidates themselves (and those around them) that they're interested in running.  So far, we have real hints of interest from folks like Cruz, Rubio, Walker, Cotton, Sasse, etc.  On the Democratic side, it's pretty quiet.  I guess at this point, none of the Dems are ready to even contemplate the possibility that Clinton might lose.  (Or they are contemplating it, but don't want to be caught talking about it.)

Ah, okay :P

If Trump wins in November, and decides that the actual workload of governing as President is too much for him, he may rest on his laurels and retire (he will be 74 in 2020, after all) and work to get his VP (likely Christie, Sessions, Corker, Fallin, or Huntsman) elected.

2016 has been a populist primary season for the Democrats. Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo represent a wing of the Party (the corporate, "moderate," DLC Third Way Democrats) that are dying. They may run, but their chances of winning, at least in a general election. Hillary Clinton, if she wins in November will be the last of the Third Way Democrats to hold the Oval Office. I think populists like Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, Al Franken, and Alan Grayson are more likely to run and succeed. I am clueless about the Republican side, but whichever Party Kanye West decides to run in, I actually think he has a good chance, assuming the momentum that exists with Sanders (an insider who plays the role of outsider), Trump, and Carson (both complete outsiders) holds up. West is the next reality show star to get famous by using free media publicity and outrageous statements. Underestimate West now, but if he follows the Trump model, he may be a real contender.

Ted Cruz attended a “secret dinner” earlier this week to plot his comeback:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/283655-top-conservatives-meet-at-secret-dinner-to-discuss-cruzs


Meanwhile, here’s Paul Ryan on whether he has presidential ambitions:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/paul-ryan-donald-trump-blank-check-endorsement_us_5762fc28e4b0df4d586f9973

Welp. It's on.

Why do republicans keep thinking that if they lose, and run again they'll somehow morph into Reagan?

He obviously can't sing a different tune at this point, but Rubio disclaimed interest here. (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/284913-rubio-i-didnt-run-for-the-senate-to-run-for-president-again)

I think he only said that to keep votes and not be portrayed as opportunistic.

Cotton will be speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival and Western Conservative Conference. (http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2016/jun/26/cotton-will-head-out-out-to-ideas-festi/?f=news-arkansas)

So apparently Joe Walsh is running in 2020. Heh. I figured he'd run for Senate in 2020 and come in third place in the GOP primary like most one termers do when they want a comeback.

Yeah, he "announced" back in 2015 that he'll run for prez in 2020 if a Democrat wins this time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq_0YR4Yuzk

Okay then.

He will run regardless of whether or not he's re-elected.

Make the right choice, Florida. You deserve better than an absentee fake Senator.

Cruz reorganizing his Senate office. (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/437520/ted-cruz-political-machine-prepares-2020-campaign)

Kasich 2020?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kasich-lost-gop-nomination-but-now-hes-finding-a-moment/2016/07/10/b2372d94-454f-11e6-8856-f26de2537a9d_story.html

Cotton will address the OH delegation. (http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/jul/12/schedule-calls-for-paul-ryan-to-address-/) And IA. (https://twitter.com/AdamWollner/status/753328257219629056)

My prediction:
2020 Democratic candidates
President Hillary Clinton
Rapper Kanye West(?!)

2020 Republican candidates
Texas Senator Ted Cruz
Florida Senator Marco Rubio
Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton
Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse
Colorado Senator Cory Gardner
Former Ohio Governor John Kasich
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst
Former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker

Walker and Cotton will address the IA/NH/SC delegations. (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/scott-walker-tom-cotton-rnc-iowa-new-hampshire-south-carolina-225518)

If that isn't a flashing neon sign indicating future presidential ambitions, I don't know what is.

Note that it's not just them, though.  The story indicates that Ernst and Kasich will both meet with the New Hampshire delegation.

I'll be interested to see if any potential future Democratic presidential candidates meet with the IA/NH/SC delegations at the DNC.  Or would that be seen as an insult to Clinton, to already be making contingency plans for 2020 in case she loses this time?  (Since so many Republican elites don't like Trump, I guess people don't worry about that so much on the Republican side.)

Cotton attending Laxalt's Basque Fry in August. (https://twitter.com/AdamLaxalt/status/753711528537231360)

Think it might be safe to include Mike Pence in possible candidates in light of today's news -- that is, if he is indeed Trump's VP choice and Trump isn't elected this year.

All + Paul Ryan and Nikki Haley.

Walker says he won't run, will be running for reelection and won't run for POTUS while guv. (https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/755040134224048128)

Interesting.  I guess that clears the way for Paul Ryan to get all the cheesehead donors.

I don't know why everyone assumes Ryan's running, considering that after 4 years of Hillary he's not gonna be in the best political shape. Plus he turned down 2 Senate runs & a POTUS run already.

I'm not *assuming* he's running, but I'd say there's a decent chance of it happening.  The way he talked about it here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5121895#msg5121895

about the "phase of life" he was in, seemed like he very clearly wanted to indicate that a presidential run at some point in the future is something he's still thinking about.

Speakers only get more and more unpopular as time goes on. 2020 may be his only shot.

Of course, one has to ask...if Walker is seriously ruling out another run for prez in 2020, then why on Earth is he bothering to meet with the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina delegations in Cleveland this week?  Meeting with all three sounds like a solid signal of continued presidential ambition, no?

Or maybe he's already planning his presidential campaign for 2024?  :P

Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio have so fan not shared their voter profile databases from their '16 campaigns with the RNC, even though they are supposed to do so, according to data sharing agreements with the RNC:

http://www.bendbulletin.com/nation/4511817-151/delays-in-transferring-data-to-trump

Speculation is 1) they don't want to help Trump, and 2) all three of them might run again in 2020, and would like to keep exclusive access to this info.

I think the only way he will run is if he retires in 2018. Otherwise, he most assuredly either thinks he can become Speaker for, say, ten years(2015-2025), retire, and either then run for President in 2024 or 2028.

Why will he have to retire as Speaker two to eight years before running:



In other news, www.Kasich2020.com is a thing. #BuckleUp

More on Kasich 2020:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/07/19/kasich-for-president-in-2020.html

More on JK, from Larry Sabato (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/not-so-hot-in-cleveland/)

Not sure if he is talking about media buzz or inside info, but Kasich 2020 is becoming CW. I wonder what would happen if the race came down to OH and Trump lost OH, would Kasich be blamed? Would it look too opportunistic?

NRO on Cruz: he isn't changing anything. (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/438144/interview-ted-cruz-2016-strategy-2020-plans)

LA Times on the 2020 politicking in Cleveland this week:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-republicans-2020-hopefuls-20160722-snap-story.html

While most of the 2020 action has been on the Republican side, with the DNC coming up, there are a few rumblings of Democratic action as well….either for 2020 if Trump wins in November, or else 2024 if Clinton does…

Klobuchar will speak to the South Carolina delegation at the DNC, while Joaquin Castro will speak to both the Iowa and South Carolina delegations:

http://www.postandcourier.com/20160723/160729724/south-carolinians-set-for-center-stage-at-democratic-national-convention
http://www.press-citizen.com/story/news/local/2016/07/22/iowa-city-area-delegates-head-east-democratic-convention/87443034/

Rubio, Walker, Ernst will speak at a September AFP summit in Orlando. (http://politickernj.com/2016/07/rubio-to-join-walker-fiorina-conservative-leaders-at-defending-the-american-dream-summit-in-orlando-fl/)

A coda to the 2020 talk at last week's RNC: Kasich said "I'll be back" when he talked to the NH delegation:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/john-kasich-tells-new-hampshire-ill-be-back/492314/

Looks like Klobuchar also talked to the Iowa delegation (as did O'Malley and Sanders):

http://qctimes.com/bacon-too-expensive-for-iowa-delegation/article_6b17e574-f44b-5689-ba39-493250710b5a.html

Two more potential future presidential candidates talked to the Iowa delegation: Cory Booker and Julian Castro:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/07/27/booker-castro-test-out-applause-lines-iowa-dnc-delegation/87613130/

I wonder what would happen if both Castro brothers ran in 2020 and/or 2024.

Funnily enough, I think Joaquin would be a better candidate. Maybe Julian runs in 2024 to pave the way for Joaquin in 2028?

Joaquin would be more likely to win any Senate races. He has four years under his belt in Congress already and twelve years in the State House before that.

Justin Amash hinted both at a "Young Americans for Liberty" event and on Twitter that he's up for a 2020 presidential run:

http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/amash-hints-2020-presidential-run/

Rand Paul was asked about whether he'd run for president again in 2020, and "gave no specific response", saying only that he's focused on his reelection:

http://www.wave3.com/story/32558846/senator-rand-paul-believes-trump-has-taken-a-huge-step-forward

Cruz is facing yuge donor blowback for his convention speech. (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/438549/ted-cruz-convention-speech-donald-trump-non-endorsement-spark-blowback)

I think Rand is out. His campaign bombed and the Ron Paul liberty movement is largely in disarray, splintered between purists, people supporting Johnson, or going to Trump.

Cotton is attending a Heck fundraiser next week. He's also speaking at Laxalt's Basque Fry event. (https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/762795136061505536)

Paul Laxalt will likely not be alive in 2020. No use courting his endorsement :P

Did I need to specify Adam, not Paul? :P

I wasn't even invited to his Basque Fry event/funeral!

I mean, I probably wouldn't eat him, but still.

Former MLB pitcher Curt Schilling says he plans to run for president (presumably as a Republican) in 2020 or 2024:

http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/2016/08/09/Curt-Schilling-eyes-2020-presidential-bid/1961470747032/

Yeah, Amash is our best hope in my opinion. He's more popular with the base while maintaining an ability to appeal to a broader base without alienating his core like Rand did.

John Weaver, on whether Kasich will run again in 2020:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/08/yes-john-kasich-is-still-running-for-president.html

Well, he's a racist bigot, so it makes sense.

The NYT has a story on how Pence is positioning himself to be a "post-Trump" GOP leader:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/us/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump.html?_r=0

Here's more on Schilling's political ambitions:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/08/16/curt-schilling-says-considering-running-against-senator-elizabeth-warren/a4i6Z8QLWxy8TcBlaAnN8M/story.html

Looks like he might run for Warren's Senate seat in 2018.

Dispatch from the annual RedState Gathering a few days ago:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/438980/five-observations-redstate-gathering

Sasse "stole the show", Fiorina also received well, Cory Gardner "had an uneven performance".

This story’s a few weeks old, but it’s about Cuomo and Gillibrand politicking at the DNC in Philly a few weeks ago.  Unlike Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, and O’Malley, neither of them talked to the Iowa or New Hampshire delegations while they were there:

http://politicsnow.buffalonews.com/2016/07/28/cuomo-gillibrand-look-like-presidential-candidates-in-philly-sort-of/

Kasich meeting NH supporters. (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/john-kasich-new-hampshire-227274)

If you asked me a year ago, I would have rated Kasich low on the list of 2016 GOP presidential candidates most likely to run again in 2020.  I didn't think that Kasich was desperate for the job in the same way that, say, Marco Rubio was.  As with Jeb Bush, I wondered if it was just that the people around him talked him into it.  (And of course, unlike Cruz and Rubio, Kasich's starting to get up there in age, as he'll be in his late 60s in 2020.)

But now I guess Kasich really does want to be president, as he's signalling an interest in another run more strongly than anyone else from the 2016 field other than Cruz (and Rubio, sort of...though that's in hibernation while Rubio runs for reelection).  Will be interesting to see where this goes.  With (presumably) no Bush running in 2020, will there be a sizeable contingent of donors rallying around Kasich as the "electable" option for 2020?

WaPo: Rubio is still running for the presidency:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/marco-rubio-is-running-for-the-senate--or-maybe-still-the-presidency/2016/08/22/48278658-6663-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html

He's gonna run again, but he's a bad fit for today's GOP.  Even if Trump had not run, Kasich would not have been the nominee; it would have been either Rubio or Cruz.  He's not considered conservative enough, and his policies on medicaid expansion, common core, and illegal immigration really upset the base.  Having said that, if Trump loses in an epic landslide, it is possible that the GOP learns its lesson and turns to someone like Kasich (similar to the Democrats' mea culpa after getting their butt kicked by Nixon, Reagan, and HW Bush, and turned to a moderate southern democrat who wanted to move the party to the center). 

I'm honestly not sure that it's possible for parties to "learn their lesson" on who to nominate in the primary era.  The prototypical example people talk about is the Dems nominating Bill Clinton in '92, which was a move to the center after folks like Mondale and Dukakis.  But I think that was more just an accident of the primary calendar and who Clinton's competition was, plus credit to Clinton's own exceptional political skills.  If a heavyweight like Cuomo had run, then there's a good chance that Clinton would have lost.  Likewise, if Jesse Jackson had run again, then, like in '84 and '88, he would have sucked up black votes in the South, and diluted the strong Southern vote for Clinton.

I think "learning your lesson" can help the discontents make peace with the nominee once he's been nominated.  If the Republicans nominated Kasich in 2020, then the right flank of the party might mute their criticism of him during the general election campaign, because they're desperate to win after 12 years of Democratic presidents.  But would they be any more likely to nominate him in the first place?  Probably not.

Cotton will be speaking at a Scott Co. (IA) party dinner in October. (https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/770631198053765120)

Cruz is just a really extreme conservative.

Cruz isn't remotely close to that IMO.

Rubio refuses to promise to serve a full six year term, should he be reelected, which once again suggests that he's eyeing another run for president in 2020, assuming Clinton wins this time:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/marco-rubio-wont-commit-6-year-term-227539

WaPo reports on Kasich's trip to New Hampshire earlier this week:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/kasich-back-in-new-hampshire-with-nostalgia-eye-on-future/2016/08/30/6216616c-6e81-11e6-993f-73c693a89820_story.html

Here how the election will be President Hillary Clinton and Vice President Tim Kaine will face Republican presidential nominee Ted Cruz and Republican vice presidential nominee Rick Scott in the general election

()

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 178 electoral votes 46.3%
Ted Cruz/Rick Scott 360 electoral votes 53.4%

I honestly wouldn't be surprised at another Kasich run, his ego is too strong.

Haven't seen this anywhere else, but Politico refers to Ryan's "expected run." (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clinton-and-ryan-brace-for-impasse-227733)

Ryan vs. Cruz - a proper factional battle. The GOP's answer to Hillary vs. Bernie?

Shinebox to NH next week for a unity breakfast. (https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/773632483170586625)

Oh, he certainly will.

A look at the online "Cruz 2020" cheerleaders:

http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/On-Facebook-already-a-cheering-section-for-Ted-9210693.php

Cotton will speak at an INGOP dinner next month. (http://www.journalgazette.net/blog/political-notebook/Conservatives-laud-state-legislators-15127227)

Pence and Santorum, among others, spoke at the Values Voters Summit this weekend:

http://www.valuesvotersummit.org

I know for a fact that Santorum wants to be president badly and that he was hoping to get nominated at a contested convention this year.

This story's a couple of weeks old, but it talks about Ernst trying to raise her national profile:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-campaign-ernst-1ecaa194-6d95-11e6-993f-73c693a89820-20160828-story.html

Well yeah, that's probably why he ran twice.

Cotton headlining a CT-SEN fundraiser. (http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Ct-Politics-GOP-s-Shaban-establishes-base-in-9218194.php#photo-10915392)

I hope he becomes the next Harold Stassen.

Cotton speaking at the PAGOP fall dinner next Friday. (http://www.politicspa.com/sen-tom-cotton-to-keynote-2016-gop-fall-dinner/78541/)

If Trump loses a close election, I believe that Mike Pence will be the immediate frontrunner for 2020.  I view him as the big winner of this cycle, and the logical choice for the GOP to be unified. 

I believe that all the #NeverTrump crowd are non-starters.  If Kasich and Cruz really want to try again, they had better say, at a minimum, that they're "voting for the Republican ticket" even if they don't say any more than that.  They will be sealing their fate if they don't do at least that.

Here’s a recap of Christie’s recent trip to NH:

http://www.app.com/story/news/politics/new-jersey/chris-christie/2016/09/14/christie-calls-gop-unite-around-trump-nh-visit/90373954/?hootPostID=29f34006268c5059c5c2707e8a7b9aae

Meanwhile, despite being famous for not getting along well with his colleagues, Cruz is raising money for fellow Senators:

https://www.texastribune.org/2016/09/14/cruz-cornyn-raise-money-vulnerable-senators/

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/confidential/jeb-bush-donors-rematch-2020-article-1.2803848

Ryan once again says that he's not ruling out a future run for president.  And once again says that he hasn't run before because his kids were young....which suggests that he might still decide to run when his kids are older:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/paul-ryan-future-presidential-run-article-1.2810066

Hey Obama, can you take out your "pen and phone" and write an executive order declaring ¡Yeb! ineligible to serve in public office? I really don't want that low-energy loser as president.

I hope he runs. Clinton vs. Bush 2020: The Rematch would be delicious. And Trump's endorsement (or lack thereof) would be a sensation.

I think David Duke will be the Republican nominee in 2020.

Kanye4Prez2020! WhoooooOOooooooo!!!! XD

Sasse would be the first President since Wilson to have a doctorate.

Well, I guess he has a low standard.

Cotton will headline the IAGOP dinner this weekend. (https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/783311772761595904)

Looks like he's doing multiple events in the state over the weekend:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/04/2020-2024-watch-tom-cotton-headline-2-iowa-events/91543618/

Cotton's IA tour is super-extensive, but Walker was there too & Haley/Kasich are marking NH. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/arkansas-sen-tom-cotton-plans-iowa-visit-raising-questions-about-2020-1475842232)

Seems like ambitous republicans think/hope trump loses

That story also says that not only was Walker in Iowa last week, but that he's going to New Hampshire next week(!):


This comes after he met with the delegations of Iowa, New Hampshire, *and* South Carolina at the RNC in July.  Of course, that same month, he said that he wasn't going to run for president in 2020, because he wants to run for reelection in '18, and doesn't want to run for prez while being governor again.  But that's starting to sound less credible, given his activity.

On another note, while folks like Cotton and Kasich have been actively 2020 politicking for a while, Haley going to NH (or at least planning to, before she had to cancel because of the hurricane) is the first concrete sign that she's also interested in 2020.

Im am THE most conservative person I know, but I am so upset of habit years of one party rule in the white that I am willing to support someone as moderate as Paul Ryan is it means we can have a landslide victory once again....of course I prefer Rand Paul

From a few minutes of browsing Wikipedia:

-In 2010, Ryan described himself as being "as pro-life as a person gets"

-During Ryan's 1998 campaign for Congress, he "expressed his willingness to let states criminally prosecute women who have abortions,"

-Ryan opposes same-sex marriage, opposed the repeal of the don't ask, don't tell policy, voted against same-sex couples adopting children in Washington D.C., and voted against a bill that would expand federal hate crime laws to cover offenses based on a victim's sexual orientation .

-Ryan, who owns a rifle and a shotgun, is an NRA member, has received an "A" rating from the NRA's Institute for Legislative Action and has been endorsed by the organization every cycle he has been in Congress.

-He also voted to withdraw federal funding of NPR.

"moderate"

Did you know that Ryan voted NO on passage of the Bush Administration national energy policy in the 2000s? I'm asking myself why?

http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Paul_Ryan.htm#Energy_+_Oil

I really like the idea of a Cotton, Cruz, Thune, Lee or Sasse 2020 nominee.
Pence is fine, and I'm okay with Haley and Ernst :)
the rest I don't know for sure what I think :)

Politico has a story on Paul Ryan's (near term) future:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/paul-ryan-future-donald-trump-collapse-229756

Speculation is that (assuming the party doesn't lose its House majority) he'll run for Speaker again, but only if the GOP caucus really wants him.  If the Freedom Caucus tries to wrestle concessions out of him or whatever, then he'll just call it quits, possibly leaving Congress altogether:

WaPo covers Cotton's Iowa visit:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/16/a-senators-iowa-visit-offers-hints-at-a-post-trump-gop/

And here's a report on Walker's visit to New Hampshire over the weekend:

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-receives-warm-welcome-in-new-hampshire-on-first/article_be205aae-ab78-567b-bdb3-100d5ad781c0.html

Er that's from last year.

Ha ha, so it is.  I saw in the WSJ story from last week that Walker was set to visit NH this weekend to campaign for Sununu, so I searched Google News today for "Walker Sununu New Hampshire", and this came up.  I didn't notice the date.  My bad.

Only thing I found is a single pic on Walker's personal FB feed. Not even on Sununu's. Sad! :P

In his Senate debate, Rubio (fingers presumably crossed) says he will serve a full Senate term, "God willing."

He doesn't need to cross his fingers to lie to you, RB, he's going to run again and then say that he meant he wouldn't resign in order to run. Basically, he's just giving himself a sentence to use in 2020 when Walker, Cotton, Haley, or one of the others mentioned in this thread use the same Christie attacks against him. If he beats Murphy (hope he doesn't but who knows at this point) he's not going to suddenly learn to respect his seat and the people who put him in it.

Bevin and Cotton will be guests at Branstad's birthday bash next month. (https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/788760461286084610)

It might be a little early for any of these potential candidates to explore a run for president...

Maybe it is, and maybe it isn't.  But the fact remains that several of them do appear to be laying the groundwork, and so they're providing us useful clues on the question of who is interested in running.

The people are putting him in his seat so he can run against Hillary Clinton.

CNN has a story on the possibility that Trump allies will try to derail Ryan's reelection as Speaker:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/paul-ryan-leadership-trump/

I'm still not sure Ryan is going to bother running for Speaker again if it looks like that'll give him headaches.

I could definitely see Joe Walsh seeing a lot of potential with today's GOP and mounting a semi-successful run.

Can anyone see McMullin running for the GOP nod if he wins Utah this year?

This thread is for actual news, not that sort of speculation.

Bevin going out to Iowa is new. He hasn't been on my 2020 radar at all (mainly because he's a recent arrival to politics and the current election has my full attention), but I could see myself getting behind him if he ran.

Last week, Rubio said that he does not currently hold any 2020 presidential ambitions (though that hardly makes for a Shermanesque denial):

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/rubio-on-senate-run/


Cotton asked about his 2020 plans:

http://www.nwahomepage.com/your-local-election-headquarters/cotton-on-2020-bid-its-better-to-write-your-plan-in-pencil

If Cotton runs, Rubio won't.

Why's that? Didn't a bunch of people expect Rubio to step down when Bush seemed primed to jump in?

They'd split the war-hungry neocon vote.

More talk that Ryan might well step down as Speaker:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/304245-chatter-grows-that-ryan-could-step-down

If he leaves his job as Speaker after next week's election, does that make him more likely to run for prez in 2020?

He declined to make a run in '16 to advance his ambition to eventually be Speaker before the decade was up. If he stands down now, he's definitely trying to save some skin before 2020. I just can't imagine him surrendering his congressional seniority to advance to the Senate at this point. I can't imagine the question being anything other than 2020 or stay put for Ryan.

Ryan's best hope is retiring now or in 2018, with Walker losing in 2018 and Ryan running for Governor in 2022.

I certainly think so

Kasich giving an AEI speech later this week. (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/08/john-kasich-speech-american-enterprise-institute/93495856/)

Well....we know President Trump is running.

Yeah, I guess this thread is now going to mostly focus on the Dems.  Recall that Booker, both Castros, Klobuchar, O'Malley, and Sanders all had meetings with early primary state delegations at the DNC this past summer.  Cuomo and Gillibrand were also said to have been politicking there, though those two didn't meet with any of the early state delegations this time.

Calling it now, Kamala Harris is the Dem nominee in 2020 and beats Trump similar to Reagan v. Carter.

I will now accept my accolades!1!1!1!1!1!

2020 as it stands does remind me a lot of 1980, but with roles reversed.

People talking up Kamala not really sure what she does for WWC. Klobuchar seems like the perfect candidate.

Obama did better with WWC than Clinton did - why would Klobuchar, who is as bland as can be and largely follow the Clinton format, do better than Harris?

Well Klobuchar represents a state with a large WWC population and routinely wins by large margins. And Clinton was not bland she has massive baggage and scandals while Klobuchar is clean, she is a former prosecutor like Kamala.

Exploratory committees will start soon. With vetting starting by Fall 2017, and the mid-term election will be really interesting to look at because if Trump tanks, the Democrats need to pounce. They need to really reorganize how they campaign, Democrats need to be told to vote and Republicans don't. The best thing to do is really use Trump to agitate the Democratic Party but do it in a positive fashion, this negative campaigning had no effect on Trump and he can play that game. Do it in a positive manner and critique policy, the Democrats should have no problem.

Sherrod Brown seems like a good bet.

If he survives what could be a tough Senate election...Joe Manchin??

I think it is very possible Trump won't run for reelection in 2020.  I think he will find being President of the United States to be a step down for him.  Plus he'll be 74 in 2020.  I think he quits and grooms Mike Pence to run. 

Hey guys, there are plenty of threads here for idle speculation.  This thread is about actual news about people who might run.  Not really intended for "Hey, what about X?  Maybe he'll run." type posts, that aren't grounded in any actual news.

No way he would be nominated.

This.  The Dems are too SJW now to nominate a white Southern man who would already be in his 70s when primary season starts.

It is not even that. He is old. We need to stop nominating old people and rebuild our bench. PERIOD.

What about Inslee in 2020 for the Democratic nomination

I think maybe you should post this in the title or something. People are ignoring it.

He's too boring. He does his job well, and would have a lot to run on, but some debate moderator would ask him about the death penalty or allowing in refugees, he'd give some Dukakis-style answer, and newspapers would run with him being robotic and timid, even if those are some of his strongest areas imho.

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/796790661659951104 Bernie Sanders not ruling out 2020 run

Klobuchar is part of the Clinton class and the same Trump Democrats who propelled him to the Presidency will see through her. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is someone whom I'm genuinely worried about long term.

Harris/Franken could be a solid ticket.

Or reverse it.

Relevant again, now that Clinton has lost:

If Democrats choose to clear the field for Cuomo, they deserve 4 more years of Trump.

Cuomo isn't going to be the nominee. Don't need to worry about that.

4 years ago I might have been worried that he had a shot, but given how damaged goods he is now (he spoke out of prime-time at the DNC, if you recall), he won't bee.

I think Cuomo is more likely to be in a prison cell by 2020 than the Democratic nominee. I hope I'm right.

I'd love to see O'Malley try again. Now that he has slightly more name recognition and it's not as big of a ticket as Hillary and Bernie, I can see him doing much better.

I can see an argument for Hassan and Duckworth, but I think at that point Hassan may not do as well if the Dems keep the idea of wanting someone younger (and her very close ties with Clinton), Duckworth would make more sense.

O'Malley running in 2020 would be like Ehrlich running in 2016.

O'Malley "taking a hard look at" (https://www.facebook.com/MartinOMalley/posts/10157904578785393) DNC Chair

In the event he gets it, I wouldn't be surprised if that takes him out of the running in 2020.

Hillary 2020

Bet on it!

No. She's done, same with Bernie and even Michelle (wasn't likely anyways)

Democrats need someone fresh and new.

A reporter asks Klobuchar about possible 2020 ambitions, and she gives a non-denial answer:

http://kstp.com/politics/us-senator-amy-klobuchar-2020-presidential-run-speculation/4315698/?cat=12681


Meanwhile, looks like Cuomo talked to Trump on Wednesday.  He says there may be benefits to New York in having Trump in the White House:

http://www.twcnews.com/nys/central-ny/decision-2016/2016/11/9/andrew-cuomo-gets-call-from-donald-trump.html

Yeahhhh there's a 0% chance of Cuomo ever getting the nom

God I hate Cuomo more than anything. Nothing like his father.

Both Cuomo and Warren are asked about 2020:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/which-democrats-could-challenge-donald-trump-in-2020-presidentia/

Cuomo


Warren

How low-energy of her.

I continue to think that if Trump gets a challenger, it’s most likely to come from the so-called Liberty wing of the party.  Maybe it’ll be Rand Paul, but Justin Amash continues to be the one I’m looking at as a leading possibility.  Amash is already voicing skepticism about Trump, as seen by his recent tweets:

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/797213664021512194
https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/797264890197053440
https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/797421508297707520 (this one is from the AP, but was retweeted by Amash)

Meanwhile, on the Sanders front, Bernie’s wife says that he’s not concerned about what happens in 2020, as he’s focused on the present:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/jane-sanders-bernie-sanders-2020/

But then, what else is she going to say?

I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

Hard to see a scenario where Democrats don't go full Corbyn in 2020. Hillary's coalition of white neoliberal elites and minorities barely stopped the left in 2016 (helped by collusion and cheating). Who can replicate that in 2020? Cory Booker maybe?

I've been hearing that some people, some very important, highly respected people want Michelle Obama to run for president.

A social conservative will never win the nomination (No Lynch), Brian Schweitzer is past his time and also kinda nuts. Tester I could support.

Maybe, but it'd continue the streak of an election with a Bush/Clinton/Obama on the ticket, starting from 1980. Feel like people are getting sick of that, so another Obama is risky.

If any of them could be competitive in the primary, I think they could help bring the eventual Democratic nominee (which is extremely unlikely to be any of those three) back to earth enough to understand how and why they should appeal to the White working class.

Lynch isn't really even a social conservative. He's a conservative in comparison to the rest of Massachusetts's politicians. Which is like being the most honest man in Washington.

He'd do about as well as Lincoln Chafee. He wouldn't even have name recognition in Massachusetts outside his district if it wasn't for his failed Senate run in 2013.

You're probably right. But a boy can dream, can't he?

I guess if I had to pick a dream candidate from the MA House delegation it would be Jim McGovern. He's able to sell progressive ideas in a relatively moderate district. But he's expressed no interest in running for higher office.

We're getting kind of off-topic though.

Didn't Jon Tester vote against the auto bailout? There's a winning Michigan candidate! ::)

More Cuomo talk:

http://buffalonews.com/2016/11/13/cuomo-in-2020/


The story also notes that it’s unclear if, should Cuomo decide to run, he’ll bother running for a 3rd term as governor first in 2018.  It might be easier for him to leave Albany before mounting a presidential campaign.

Cuomo will be crushed in the primary. This isn't 1992.

And he's owned by fossil fuels. We didn't lose this election by not being moderate enough. We lost it because people couldn't tell the difference.


And those same groups didn't turn out for HRC. Makes me wonder whether her "coalition" in the primary was really just older African Americans and Hispanics, corporate Dems, and women and LGBTQ folks (like myself) who were too enthusiastic about her historicity to see her flaws clearly.

The data has always said that economics wins elections, and I think leftist populism that gets the WWC folks who will be inevitably disappointed by the Donald and communities of color to the polls, tinged with feminist and pro-equality rhetoric builds a much better coalition than Cory Booker's corporate PR non-message.

It's not going to be Cuomo, Booker, Kaine, or any other Democrat in that mold. It's going to be someone popular with the young-uns, trust me on that.

2020 watch on the Sunday morning talk shows: Booker was on Meet the Press this morning, while Sanders was on Face the Nation.

The moron who predicted Hillary would beat Bernie in Washington?  No thanks.  He's so out of touch, it's not even funny.  The nominee has to be a Bernie supporter because everyone else proved themselves to be clueless.  Jeff Merkley would be the best option by far.  Keith Ellison would be a good option but being Muslim would hurt his chances.

That candidate wouldn't need to win the South. They'd just need to do better than Bernie there and in the Rust Belt.

Some more 2020 talk from the Dems (much of it dated, but relevant again)….

Biden
Over the summer, Biden said that he wouldn’t rule out running for office in the future:

http://time.com/4432295/joe-biden-vice-president-office-2/


Booker
A few days before the election, this was Booker on 2020:

http://www.wkyc.com/news/politics/elections/us-senator-cory-booker-one-on-one/347525918


de Blasio

This story from last year is worth a read again:

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-does-bill-de-blasio-want-in-2016-2015-4

It talks about how de Blasio made a trip to Iowa last year, which sparked a brief round of speculation about whether he might be interested in running as the progressive insurgent candidate against Clinton in the ’16 Dem. primaries.  Of course, de Blasio passed on a run:


But that was in response to the question of whether he’d run in ’16.  Running for reelection as mayor of NYC doesn’t preclude him running for president in 2020.

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

De Blasio is left nowhere - Neither on the Bernie camp nor Hillary although he is trying to cosy up to Bernie to get the progressive rub off further.

But he is only a big city mayor. IMO he should run for Senate or be a governor to be considered seriously. I think he will run for NY Governor soon!

Hope xingkerui is right & we don't get Booker, Kaine, Gillebrand, Coumo type but a firebrand progressive with strong appeal to young voters - 4 years is a long time & new leaders will come too

I don't even know if he'll be my mayor 14 months from now

I love him, but the last person the Democrats need right now is the mayor of New York, whoever that is.

Similarly, I think the biggest problem with Harris at this point is the optics of her having been a San Francisco local politician. Most of the other negatives about her can be cancelled out--'muh soft on crime' with the fact that she was a DA, her less-than-Ozzie and Harriet personal life with Trump's vastly worse one, et cetera--but not that one, unfair as that is.

Crime is pretty low in New York.

Yeah, I still think Harris is a good candidate, but that is a major roadblock for her.

Everyone is saying that Cuomo is too moderate to win a Democratic nomination, but he is literally the guy who said that pro-lifers have no place in New York.  How liberal does one have to go to win the nomination?

He's too 'finance capitalist with socially liberal characteristics', not too overall-moderate.

Because being pro choice is the sole determinant of liberalism ::).

Again, Biden will be 78 in 2008. While it's becoming more and more common for older politicians to run viable campaigns, I still think 2016 was his last chance.

I also don't get the assertion that only a "New Democrat" could win in the South. sh**tty AA turnout is what doomed us in FL and NC not lopsided defeat among moderate whites, and Hillary's appeal to the intellectual class in places like the Triangle and Tampa paid very meager dividends.

I think leftwing populism is a smart investment plan in the South, especially as homophobia and religious conservatism begins to fade across the country. The Country Club Repubs will always hold their nose and vote GOP, but we can start picking off some hillfolk again if we shed the elitist image.

No, he's too corrupt.

Clinton had a lot of smoke around her. Cuomo is on fire.

Yeah, let's appoint another corrupt New York Democrat who served in the Clinton administration as the Nominee!

I feel like Booker is really gearing up for a run in 2020.

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

Sounds like Clinton in 2013/2014... just saying

Actually, I would enjoy it greatly if Cruz repeated 2016 (but flipped) in 2020. Given how overwhelmed Trump has been so far (and not even in office yet!), I wouldn't be surprised if he declined to run...

A lot of Trump supporters are optimistic that he might complete the "holy trinity of Trumpism" (NAFTA, the wall, and Obamacare) by 2020 and turn the keys over to Pence. He himself has hinted that he only wants the job as long as he is needed. I personally want him to serve two full terms, even if it means handing the Presidency over to the Democrats afterwards (second terms always seem to go south) in 2024 because I don't want the exiled establishment Republicans launching a counter-revolution before we become entrenched.

Anywho, Trump being a one term President is almost more likely if he's successful than unsuccessful.

I could see Trump not running in 2020 because he can spin things as "a job done" and not being a career politician, etc.

Democratic consultants everywhere are rejoicing!

But normal people won't like this guy.

Corrupt social liberals =/= progressives/social democrats

Republican Governors Association is meeting this week, and as this story notes, it now looks like folks like Kasich and Walker are putting their presidential ambitions on hold because Trump will presumably be re-nominated in 2020:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-15/now-in-trump-s-shadow-republican-governors-put-presidential-aspirations-on-hold

In Kasich's case, "on hold" might well mean "giving up on", since he'll be over 70 in 2024.

I wouldn't be shocked if he runs in 2024, but he'll do about as well as George Pataki.

Tim Ryan appears to be angling for house minority leader.

Any chance that he throws his hat in the ring come 2020?

That's assuming he doesn't get primaried in 2018.

With Warren as (potentially) de facto Dem. frontrunner, it's worth taking a look at how she's handling her new position as part of the opposition to Trump.  The latest is that she sent Trump a letter:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/15/elizabeth-warren-wants-trump-shake-his-transition-team-else/1VIgKifk1aXmf1P1zsDf3K/story.html

I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

There's only been one poll (from before the 2016 election) and it had Warren ahead. I'm not sure if Sanders was even included though.

Warren will be 71 in 2020.

It will be her last chance to run if she really wants it.

Boston Globe: 20 candidates who could run in 2020 — Democrats and Republicans

Democrats
John Bel Edwards
Bill de Blasio
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Julian Castro
Andrew Cuomo
Russ Feingold
Tulsi Gabbard
Kamala Harris
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Joe Manchin
Thomas Perez
Bernie Sanders
Tom Steyer
Jon Tester
Elizabeth Warren
Tom Wolf

Republicans
John Kasich
Ted Cruz

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/16/candidates-who-could-run-democrats-and-republicans/hxdFmFwXHg64rEEaIgKa9I/story.html?event=event25

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gov-cuomo-seek-reelection-run-president-article-1.2874698

Joe Manchin but no Brian Schweitzer?

Problem with Tester is that we need someone who can hold that sest in Montana. I guess Bullock can appoint himself, but I'd rather if he ran against Daines.

I'm actually not sure it's likely they'll both throw their hat into the ring, since they agree on almost everything, and by splitting the vote, they would risk throwing the nomination to an establishment Dem.

Yeah, Sanders and Warren aren't both going to run. I'd probably bet on neither of them running, but they certainly aren't both going to run.

Kaine says no presidential run for him in 2020:

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/article_cd9f08c2-9594-585d-a558-b4b7bbc55ced.html

Is Kaine the only Democrat who has explicitly ruled out a run?

Among actual politicians?  Yes, I believe he's the only one.  However, Michelle Obama has also ruled out running:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/michelle-obama-president-sxsw/index.html

Aside from Kaine's apparently removing himself from the race....

In the week+ since election day, Sanders has explicitly said that he's not ruling out a 2020 presidential campaign.  Meanwhile, Cuomo, Klobuchar, and Warren have all been asked about future presidential plans, and they all gave non-answers like "that's a long way off".

Oh right, I heard about that.

On another note, it occurs to me that Booker faces a Rand Paul problem in 2020: He's up for reelection for his Senate seat that year.  And the primary for both Senate and President is the same day.  Can he legally run for both offices at the same time?  Would he actually do so?

OTOH, the NJ primary isn't until June, and the filing deadline is early April.  Presumably he could run for president, and the nomination will most like be decided by the end of March anyway, so he would know whether he needs to drop out of the race to run for Senate or not.

There probably isn't a huge risk of losing that Senate seat in New Jersey (compared to Florida, where that was considered a real risk for the GOP), so the only issue is if Booker himself wants to stay in the Senate after 2020.

This is also an issue for Coons, Franken, Merkley, Peters, Udall, Warner, Markey, Shaheen, Reed, and Durbin. Most of those people are definitely not running though I guess all of those people could theoretically be VP choices. I don't know what the laws say in all of those states.

Klobuchar's seat isn't up in 2020.  Franken's seat is up that year.

Yeh. Right. Tell us another funny story. Ted's a hero in Texas. Also, no one comes close to his level of organization and effort.

Given the vigor with which he pursued this primary season, 2020 is a real possibility for Cruz. I do not see the Donald running twice. The one major exception is if he gets tapped for SCOTUS.

Whoops, I knew that. Let me edit.

Cruz has a negative approval rating in Texas (though still positive, but relatively bad, among Republicans), and polls show that Rick Perry would beat him by nine points if he ran in the primary.  I would still bet my money on Cruz surviving a primary challenge, but stranger things have happened (like the election we just had).

I bet that was not taken recently. Cruz' run at Trump in the primaries improved his standing significantly. Now that Trump is President-elect, Cruz can expect a higher profile in the Congress.

Perry really is a joke at this point.

J

What are Julian Castro’s post-Obama admin. plans?

http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Castro-has-no-immediate-plans-to-run-for-office-10605120.php


As the story notes, Julian’s brother Juaquin is considering running for Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in 2018.

I didn't believe Julian Castro was qualified to be Hillary's VP. What the hell makes him think he's qualified to be POTUS?

This is weird.  The South Carolina press is reporting on rumors that people are quietly urging Tim Scott to be ready to run for president in 2020 just in case this whole Donald Trump thing doesn’t work out:

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article115620113.html

There are both Cory Booker 2020 and Elizabeth Warren 2020 Facebook pages:

https://www.facebook.com/PresidentCoryBooker/
https://www.facebook.com/VoteforElizabethWarren/

Here is a picture of two people preparing to savagely attack each other on the 2020 Democratic primary debate stage:

()

They have contingency plans already? Jesus. There'll be a 25th amendment force out at this rate within the year. I have no doubts most Republicans would not hesitate to kick Trump to the curb now that he's delivered them the Oval Office

Here's another picture of people preparing to tear each other's throats out on the 2020 Democratic primary debate stage in a few years:

()

I can't see Harris and Booker running against each other.

Sunday morning talk show watch: Sanders on Meet the Press this morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

He was on Face the Nation last week.  Is he going to be a regular fixture on these shows for the duration of Trump's term?

Even though Trump crushed their 2020 dreams by winning the election this year, Bevin and Cotton still showed up:

http://www.kcci.com/article/talk-of-2020-presidential-race-looms-at-governors-birthday-bash/8344231

Either:

1) They were being polite by not cancelling,
2) They're hedging their bets on Trump running again, or
3) It's never too early to start laying the groundwork for 2024.

I posted a thread about Howard Dean saying that he currently favors Gillibrand for president in 2020.  But I figure that I should also post in this thread how her office responded:

http://www.registerstar.com/news/article_53afce3e-ade6-11e6-9e2d-770246b848ab.html

That's a classic nondenial denial line. She's definitely going to consider it, but seems like someone that may defer to other candidates should certain ones get in.

I would enthusiastically vote for any of these 3 potential candidates. If I had to choose one though I'd probably pick Harris

All are absolute lightweights compared to Hillary Clinton, but I'd definitely support any of them over Donald Trump.

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, an actor from California, is not ruling out a (quixotic) primary challenge to Trump:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-rock-running-for-president-2020
http://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/celebrity/dwayne-johnson-on-running-for-president-i-wouldnt-rule-it-out/ar-AAkhCtg?li=AA2qN5v&ocid=spartanntp


Not sure if this was posted here earlier, but Mother Jones lists 11 dems who could defeat Trump:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/democrats-defeat-trump-president-2020

Warren
Kaine (already out)
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Harris
Duckworth
Booker
O'Malley
(Chris) Murphy
Hickenlooper
Michelle Obama (already out)

Some more whispering about Chris Murphy is within this long article (also mentions Julian Castro and some more obvious people): http://qz.com/836658/donald-trumps-age-how-baby-boomer-generation-x-and-millennial-presidents-would-change-the-course-of-america/

Get your Deblasio Buzz here: http://nypost.com/2016/11/12/clintons-loss-means-a-de-blasio-cuomo-2020-race/

Bustle.com: 7 Democrats who could run in 2020: https://www.bustle.com/articles/194585-7-democrats-who-could-run-for-president-in-2020-and-take-the-white-house-from-donald (Booker, Warren, (Sherrod) Brown, Gillibrand, Harris, Duckworth, (Tulsi) Gabbard)

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Third Party Stuff:

With Johnson ruling out another run for the libertarian nomination (http://krqe.com/blog/2016/11/09/gary-johnson-says-he-wont-run-for-president-again/), this article on Austin Petersen from September is worth another read: http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/why-austin-petersen-is-the-future-of-the-libertarian-party/

Reminders:

Journalist Dan Rattiner (I) declared a 2020 candidacy in 2015: http://www.danspapers.com/2015/04/hat-in-the-ring-dan-rattiner-running-for-president-in-2020

Adam Kokesh (L) declared a 2020 candidacy in 2013: http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2013/07/adam-kokesh-to-run-for-president-in-2020/

A list that includes Michelle Obama, Hickenlooper, and O'Malley but not Sherrod Brown is a bad list

Mother Jones has become a joke site establishment hack site.

There are many such articles posting speculated lists of people who might run, but I haven’t posted them unless they have news content, like “Candidate X said Y, which is why we think they might run”.  I like to separate out the news on what the candidates themselves are saying and doing from who the news media is guessing about.  E.g., in the article you linked to with whispering about Chris Murphy, or the one about “de Blasio buzz”, it was just columnists speculating, not citing things like de Blasio’s visit to Iowa last year, or anything like that.

The stuff I post in this thread (aside from the fun pictures of Senators) is: what are the prospective candidates doing and saying, and/or what are people in their inner circle saying about their ambitions?  To the extent I discuss idle speculation like “What if so-and-so runs?” it’s about how the candidates respond to such speculation.  E.g., in my earlier post, I commented on Dean “endorsing” Gillibrand only to note how Gillibrand’s office responded.

Not trying to criticize here, just clarify.  I just don’t want people to see things like “whispering about Chris Murphy” and assume that it’s a story with some actual evidence that Chris Murphy might be thinking about it, when it’s just someone name checking Murphy in a long list of Senators in the right age range.

Kanye West said that while he didn't vote, if he had, he would have voted for Trump. This probably lowers the odds of him running in 2020, assuming Trump runs for reelection: Kanye West: I didn't vote but if I did, 'I would have voted for Trump'
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/18/entertainment/kanye-west-donald-trump-trnd/index.html

But... why didn't he vote?

Politico has a story on how Warren is setting herself up as a leader of the loyal opposition to Trump:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/elizabeth-warren-democrats-liberals-231692

Cory Booker is in for 2020. 
Heard him on NPR today he is already taking positions far to the left of where he was when he ran for Senate 2 yrs ago. 

Which specific issues?

Because she's dropped hints over the past few years indicating presidential ambition, I kind of figured that Klobuchar would run for reelection for her Senate seat in 2018, before running for prez in 2020.  However, it looks like some are speculating that she may run for governor instead:

http://www.startribune.com/last-election-barely-past-minnesota-s-next-governor-s-race-gets-going/402072125/

Hmm, I don't see her running for President in 2020 if she's just starting a first term as Governor.

Yeah, she'd have to launch her presidential candidacy less than ~six months after being sworn in as governor.  I don't see it happening.

That said, all we really have here is rumors that she's interested in the governorship.  No idea if it's based on anything real.

Greg Giroux ‏@greggiroux  45m45 minutes ago
Senator-elect @KamalaHarris (D-CA) has set up a leadership PAC: Fearless for the People PAC
http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?_201611210300119592+0  #casen #capolitics

()

Doesn't necessarily mean much though.

I doubt it, Warren will have trouble with minorities like Clinton. Warren also will have to pull in hispanics where she has little appeal. John Bel Edwards will do a pretty good job with Southern Democrats while still being able to win over minorities with a strong VP. Warren could do the same with Castro but the ticket would be awkward with opposing ideologys. Warren only wins in places where Democrats have an assured victory.

Trump would defeat Warren by 20 points, Harris by 8 points. He'd defeat Sanders by 3 points. Booker would win by 7 points..

lol

He'd beat her. Just take the zero away from Wulfric's number and it isn't that bad a post.

If trends go in the other direction this time that could translate to a Warren victory in the electoral college.

Welcome to the forum!

I think Julian Castro would be the wise choice vs Trump. He is young, well spoken, and has a good record of job creation as mayor

Speaking of PACs, it looks like on Martin O'Malley's Twitter account, he still links to the O'Say Can You See PAC that supported him in the primaries:

https://martinomalley.com

According to the FEC, it had $57,000 cash on hand remaining a the end of September:

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00525220/1108401/

I assume it'll start fundraising again if O'Malley decides to run again.

Warren is the left's version of Ted Cruz. A firebrand who excites the base and turns everyone else away.

Let's run a Southerner in 2020. Focus on turning NC, GA, and FL Democratic with potential to make the other southern states remember that there is a Democratic Party. I say forget the Midwest. If they want to vote for the Dem great, but Dems need to focus on the south. The future of the party is to build a solid bi-coastal coalition and make occasional inroads in the inland south and inland north.

Republicans had a tea party purge beginning 8 years ago and it's clear the Dems need to do the same and forget old strategies that didn't work. We need to appeal to the south.

Gillibrand  (http://pagesix.com/2016/11/24/kirsten-gillibrand-reaching-out-to-hillarys-donors/)reaching out to Hillary's donors.

Which Southerner do we run, though?

Interesting:

Doesn't need to be somebody famous or nationally prominent. A mayor or state legislator would do. Whoever is young and fresh and will get democrats as excited as Barack Obama did in 2008. After criticizing Obama for lack of experience, Republicans have now effectively ceded that issue for a generation, and none of the democratic names currently being floated inspire me at all.

[/quote]Doesn't need to be somebody famous or nationally prominent. A mayor or state legislator would do. Whoever is young and fresh and will get democrats as excited as Barack Obama did in 2008. After criticizing Obama for lack of experience, Republicans have now effectively ceded that issue for a generation, and none of the democratic names currently being floated inspire me at all.
[/quote]

*cough* Julian Castro *cough*

Doesn't need to be somebody famous or nationally prominent. A mayor or state legislator would do. Whoever is young and fresh and will get democrats as excited as Barack Obama did in 2008. After criticizing Obama for lack of experience, Republicans have now effectively ceded that issue for a generation, and none of the democratic names currently being floated inspire me at all.
[/quote]

*cough* Julian Castro *cough*
[/quote]

Castro vs Trump 2020, because why not lose with a minority this time?

Agreed. Castro will not do. We need a great orator with an inspiring story who makes people believe anything is possible if we come together as a nation. That's not Castro. Dems need to start thinking outside of the box or we will be in minority for a long time.

A) Trump is the walking apocalypse let's not act like we need freakin FDR to beat him in 2020 if he is as bad as early signs point and B) Castro was a poor kid raised by a single mom who went on to be a successful job creating mayor in a red state during the recession and as HUD has helped fight housing discrimination against gay and trans people. I can see that selling to the base especially aganist Cheeto Mussolini

Don't forget we live in a post-truth era. Reality is not reality, perception is reality. And Democrats are so disadvantaged by the electoral map (more voters, but concentrated in too few states) that we really do need an FDR who can appeal to and inspire all Americas. Hillary couldn't win with 2 million more votes. I want someone who can win by at least 5 million votes.

Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, Amy Klobuchar, etc. aren't going to do it. We need the second coming of Barack Obama.

I think your seriously over reading this election Trump barely beat a person who is under investigation by the FBI and has been at the center of 30 years worth of conspiracy theories

No, George W. Bush barely beat Al Gore. Donald Trump comfortably defeated Hillary and will have the advantage of incumbency in 4 years.

I guarantee incumbency will not be an advantage for him in 4 years the only ways he could win against someone like Castro in 2020 is either a)against all odds and science the economy is doing better than now or b) white "identity politics" really is what got him elected in which case we could have bigger problems as a nation than Trump

Again, can we please move these lengthy debates about who the best nominee would be to other threads?  This thread is about news on the potential presidential candidates.  Nothing wrong with riffing a bit on some of that news to express your opinion on a candidate when his/her name comes up in one of the news stories, but the idea is not to initiate debates on who the nominee should be out of thin air.

Some guy tweets “Can’t wait for your presidential run in 2020” to Booker, and his response tweet doesn’t deny it.  :P

https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/801991881722855424


Booker’s response:


Btw, since there’s been talk of both Cory Booker 2020 and (apparently (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5400344#msg5400344)) Tim Scott 2020 recently, might as well note that Booker and Scott both visited Israel back in August:

http://njjewishnews.com/article/32023/booker-finds-common-ground-in-israel#.WDiBiaIrK1s

In recent election cycles, Israel has become a perennial foreign stop for US presidential candidates.

()

This article mentions Haley, Ernst, and Vicky Hartzler (R, MO-04) as potential 2020/24 candidates, but I personally doubt any of them would actually challenge Trump: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article113891963.html

I'm not convinced she's done, but I'll bet her donors are.

If, somehow, she is absolved of all blame in the torrent of Clinton scandals, she might actually run, and might actually be nominated.  She'd have a case, in that she won the popular vote, and there may be buyer's remorse from the key constituencies in WI, PA, and MI that voted for Trump.  Trump may be so bad that folks might vote for Hillary to make amends, in the vein that Jim Carrey burned his clothes and took showers after figuring out that "Einhorn is a MAAAAAAAN!" in Ace Ventura:  Pet Detective. 

Of course, the probability of this is next to zero.  Even if Trump turns out horribly, the "You've failed TWICE!" argument will resonate with donors, and Hillary's NOTHING without them.

http://draftfranken.com/join-the-team/

DRAFT FRANKEN now has positions open for a National Finance Director, National Media Director, Social Media Coordinator, etc.

Looks like it's getting real and is probably the most sophisticated draft effort as of yet for 2020...though obviously it's crazy early

I like Al but he comes off as a better VP than top ticket

Martin Heinrich (D-NM) (Senator Dreamboat) has taken up the mantle of attacking the Dakota Access Pipeline. He could be a good candidate. Pro-environment and anti-mass surveillance, but he doesn't have a widely publicized or controversial background to my knowledge (that's what holds Sanders and Warren back). This could be a start of Heinrich raising his profile for a 2020 run. He's pretty young (he'll be 49 in 2020), he's had two terms in the House (2009-2013) and will have been in the Senate for about 8 years. He also doesn't have the stigma of being a coastal liberal.

http://krwg.org/post/heinrich-calls-president-reroute-dakota-access-pipeline (http://krwg.org/post/heinrich-calls-president-reroute-dakota-access-pipeline)

The main drawback of Heinrich in the primary is that he had an A rating from the NRA at one point. Even Sanders has a D-, and it was a major issue for him.

But otherwise, yeah, I think he might be our best bet actually.

In my humble opinion, as a former County Chair for Ted Cruz I am going to make my statement on this whole thing:
for the Republicans Trump will run for reelection with Pence at his side, nothing will change there.
Democrats...
Sherrod Brown-Maybe, but he'll be 68 years old, need someone younger I say, but he'll likely run
Cory Booker-definitely a go for a 2020 bid, successful who knows?
Martin Heinrich-wouldn't mind it, young, smart, a possibility for sure
Amy Klobuchar-who knows? she seems indecisive
Andrew Cuomo-I rather doubt it really
Julian Castro-I hope not
Jon Tester-I would truly love, smart, moderate, decent fellow (probably other than Heinrich my favorite democrat)
Elizabeth Warren-likely going to run but how far will she get, being 71 years old?
Deval Patrick-a distinct possibility
Brian Schweitzer-possible, though not likely
Kristen Gillibrand-too much ties to Hillary, but could see her running
Martin O Malley-I think he'll try again, how well he will do? I don't know
Bill DeBlasio-please heavens no!
Kamala Harris-not likely to run until 2024

What he has at present is what will matter. Sanders used to have a very high rating. But it just goes to show the NRA has become another political hack group in the past 6-8 years.

Followup to this: Like I said, I'm assuming that if she runs for governor, it means she's not planning to run for president in 2020.  That said, being elected governor might increase her chances of being on the 2020 ticket as VP.  If the Dems nominate a man for prez, then he might feel compelled to pick a woman as his running mate.  And there might be a political calculation to choose a woman from the Midwest rather than from the coasts.  There are only so many such options available, and if Klobuchar could add executive experience to her legislative experience, that could give her an advantage.

Trump will be only one-term. He's 70 years old now.

I'm thinking about a potential young candidate: Tim Ryan from Ohio

he could pick Elizabeth Warren, Tammy Duckworth, Amy Klobushar or whoever else in his ticket.

Update for this week: Sanders on both This Week and State of the Union.  Yes, I guess he is going to be on the Sunday shows every week.  None of the other 2020 Dems are on this week or last.  Cruz and Rubio are both on the Sunday shows this week though, but I guess they're more like laying the groundwork for 2024.  (Seriously though, I assume they're on in large part because of Castro.)

Politico has a story about all the Republican presidential prospects who thought they’d be gearing up for 2020, but are now waiting until 2024 because of Trump’s win:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-republicans-cruz-rubio-231717

They mention a New Hampshire trip taken by Ernst shortly before the election that I hadn’t noticed btw.  But anyway, I don’t see Ernst challenging Trump for the nomination, so I guess that belongs in the future “Who is running in 2024?” thread.  As for the others:

For some strange reason, a reporter asked Rep. Joe Kennedy if he was interested in running for president:

http://wpri.com/2016/11/19/congressman-kennedy-trump-should-work-to-unify-america/

He's a Kennedy. That's why they asked. He'd be someone to watch for higher office in MA though. Maybe Gov in 2018. Baker is pretty moderate and popular from what I recall. Ed Markey is up in 2020; I'm guessing Markey has one more term in him. Warren is up in 2018 and I'm pretty damn sure that she'll be running. Kennedy is stuck for now. Governor would be the easiest route since I assume that he won't be primarying anyone. So, it's highly doubtful that he runs for Pres in 2020.

Under the category of “I wasn’t really paying attention to the Dem. 2020 primary implications at the time, but with Trump winning this is suddenly relevant”…..looks like Franken, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, and Warren all did some campaigning for Clinton and/or Hassan in New Hampshire during the fall campaign:

http://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2016/10/hassan-kuster-gillibrand-and-britton-advocate-for-clinton
https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2016/10/no-re-election-line-franken-and-klobuchar-step-party
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/09/24/elizabeth-warren-rallies-new-hampshire-for-clinton-and-hassan/EFfG16UkVOjTCoV3gWuDOK/story.html

Franken also used his PAC to give $ to Dem. candidates nationwide:


As noted way earlier in this thread, Gillibrand and Klobuchar also campaigned for Clinton in Iowa shortly before the caucuses back at the beginning of the year, as did Booker and Castro, among others.

Booker also campaigned for Clinton in NH before the primary there:

http://www.wmur.com/article/new-jersey-senator-campaigns-for-clinton-in-new-hampshire-1/5206715

Then he talked to the NH delegation at the DNC, and did an interview about his NH visits, saying that he’d “fallen in love” with the state:

http://www.nh1.com/news/booker-tells-nh1-news-nh-is-a-place-that-i-ve-now-fallen-in-love-with-/

Addendum to the previous message: Looks like O'Malley also campaigned for Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire over the summer:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-martin-o-malley-is-headed-back-to-iowa-for-hillary-clinton-20160622-story.html

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-martin-o-malley-to-campaign-for-clinton-in-pennsylvania-20160715-story.html

And Booker campaigned for Clinton in the South Carolina primary:

http://www.gettyimages.com/event/presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton-holds-south-carolina-town-hall-events-606998899?#senator-cory-booker-a-democrat-from-new-jersey-speaks-during-a-town-picture-id512312102

So this year so far, we have the following early state visits:

Booker: IA, NH, & SC
Julian Castro: IA (when he was in the running for VP)
de Blasio: IA
Franken: NH
Gillibrand: IA & NH
Kaine: IA, NH, & SC (but he was first running for VP, and then the VP nominee, so what do you expect?)
Klobuchar: IA & NH
O’Malley: IA & NH (not just when he was running for president himself, but during the GE campaign for Clinton)
Sanders: IA & NH (not just when he was running for president himself, but during the GE campaign for Clinton)
Warren: NH

Then at the DNC over the summer, we had:

Booker: spoke to the IA and NH delegations
Joaquin Castro: spoke to the IA and SC delegations
Julian Castro: spoke to the IA delegation
Klobuchar: spoke to the IA and SC delegations
O’Malley: spoke to the IA delegation
Sanders: spoke to the IA delegation

^Sanders campaigned for Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire during the general election as well.

OK, added that.

Maria Comella, a former Christie aide (and operative in previous Republican presidential campaigns) who ended up backing Clinton over Trump this year, has gone to work for Cuomo:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/christie-aide-advising-cuomo-article-1.2888935

Fournier says Clinton is keeping her options open. (https://twitter.com/ron_fournier/status/803189481545367552)

Lol sure. Also, it's not fair at all to say Clinton is the one raising doubts about the election's legitimacy.

Reminds me of Kerry in 2008 if true.

Now she just needs to make a botched joke about being stuck in Iraq.

I guess they could go the Grover Clevland route but im not sure how receptive the party will be to her in 2020.

That would be the Adlai Stevenson route. The Grover Cleveland route would be nominating Jimmy Carter.

It would be the Stevenson route in the sense that she didnt win, but the Cleveland route in the sense that she won the popular vote and ran again.

I guess, but Cleveland was actually President before.

Another item from years ago that's worth looking at again, now that Trump's victory means an open Dem. primary contest in 2020: Deval Patrick said in 2014 that he wasn't going to run for president in 2016, but wouldn't rule out running for national office at some later date:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2014/02/23/governor-patrick-says-maybe-presidential-run-after-election/vGG5tmuFRE7q2nbduEwrxL/story.html

Looks like this page is actually more active than either of those two:

https://www.facebook.com/tulsi2020/

The FB page "Run Tulsi Run" is extremely active. Many of the commenters are anti-Hillary, pro-Bernie, and even pro-Trump. I have to admit that I like Gabbard but it is a really, really oddball mix on that page.

Are any of these actually associated with a PAC or with a broader movement?

No, these are just freelancers, AFAIK.

Though Kaine has said he’s not running for prez in 2020, it’s too early for us to take such denials to the bank.  So it’s worth flagging this:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/tim-kaine-california-fundraisers-231977

Apparently, there are multiple "Draft Michelle Obama" PACs out there now:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/307902-ready-for-michelle-pacs-urge-2020-run

Meanwhile, Barack says she's never going to run (reiterating her own previous comments on the matter):

http://www.theroot.com/articles/news/2016/11/president-obama-michelle-will-never-run-for-office/

Latest on Julian Castro:

http://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/gilbert_garcia/article/Castro-in-holding-pattern-while-rumors-swirl-10643379.php

Im with the go big guys Castro I think could be the perfect counter to Trump. He is young, came from a poor background, and as the article pointed out has WAY more experience prior to office than the man he would run against

Mark Warner says he is not considering a 2020 presidential run:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/11/30/mark-warner-rules-out-2020-white-house-run-window-is-probably-shut/

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  3m3 minutes ago
Hard not to read into it a LITTLE when ambitious pols go to Iowa. Jason Kander→Des Moines for the Progress Iowa holiday party next month.

If Joaquin Castro runs for Mayor, or becomes the VP nominee, couldn't Julian Castro run for Joaquin's House seat?

Yeah but he's obviously NOT running for prez. So what do you think it is? DNC Chair?

Not sure why a trip to Iowa would help one get elected DNC Chair.  Maybe he is hoping to run for prez, but in 2024 or 2028, after he wins some other office first.  Never too early to start laying the groundwork for 2028.  :P

That's what happens when you get an Islamophobic Blue Dog from a deep (Atlas) red state

Rep. Xavier Becerra will be appointed California Attorney General by Gov. Jerry Brown. Takes him out of Washington and probably forecloses presidential ambitions for 2020...I've always thought he had them.

He can try, but it's not like the country will ever want an ultra-partisan dem like him.

Franken says he will not run for president in 2020:

https://www.yahoo.com/tv/sen-al-franken-rejects-2020-presidential-run-exclusive-221600004.html

He would make a good vp for someone like Castro or Booker

NOOOOOOO

I will continue to say I can't believe he would rule it out four years out. If anyone would get my vote who is a progressive, it would be him.

Tulsi Gabbard is too young to run in 2020. She could be a good candidate for the democrats in 2024 if they lose in 2020. I think she could unite the far-left Bernie supporters with moderates for a national coalition, unlike an Elizabeth Warren or a Tim Kaine. The democrats' best chance in 2020 is probably a moderate governor like Bullock (D-MT), especially against Trump. If the GOP nominates an establishment candidate like Paul Ryan, they'd be fine with a left-wing anti-establishment pick. Keep in mind that if the GOP isn't renominating Trump, it probably means republicans are in turmoil and going to lose no matter what.

I'm still hoping that Trump will pick Tulsi for secretary of state. On matter like opposing regime change and favoring working relations with Russia, they are quite similar (unlike war hawk Romney who wants to bring back the Cold War). She also acknowledges that we are at war with ISLAMIC terrorists and has criticized her party for failing to use the aforementioned word. Might not play well with some on the left, but four years as secretary of state could give her good experience to base her candidacy off of (assuming they aren't filled with disaster and scandal like Hillary's were).

Hillary is going to run again. Bookmark me.

If she ever does, her slogan should be "I told you so".

Requoting this so it isn't missed.

If anyone thinks that that Franken statement is definitive, just remember:

"I can unequivocally say I will not be running for national office in four years"
-Barack Obama, 2004

Lots of candidates use the loophole of saying they are "not running for president" meaning they will focus on their current job and helping their constituents... until such time that they run for president three years down the road.

In this particular statement though, Franken's office doesn't just say that he's "not running for president".  It says he's not going to run in 2020 (so they cover the future tense).  Compare that to the recent comments by Cuomo, Gillibrand, and Warren:



In those cases, they're just deflecting the question.  Not even making the pretense of making a denial of interest in running.  Whereas the Franken statement is more of a real denial.

That's not to say that the Franken statement is the last word on Franken 2020.  It's way too early to take that as the last word.  (E.g., Obama gave a real denial on 2008 as well, and then flip-flopped on it.)  But in general, the politicians who are already playing the game of "non-denials" are the ones who tend to be most likely to run.

Does anyone know if it's largely just supporters of the winning party who tend to go to all the "inaugural balls" in DC on presidential inauguration day?

I ask because if these things tend to be bipartisan, then I'm wondering if any of the 2020 Dems will go to this (Iowa's inauguration party in DC):

http://www.iowasociety.com/inauguration-2017/
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/first-in-the-nation-inauguration-celebration-tickets-29791374804?aff=erelexpmlt

In 2013, both Biden and Klobuchar went to it, for example.  Neither of them ended up running in 2016, of course, but they were both thinking about it at the time.  But if it's going to be attended only by Republicans celebrating the Trump victory this time, then I guess it's a moot point.  Though in that case, I guess if any Republican VIPs show up, it's a sign that they're thinking about primarying Trump in four years.  :P

Doesn't look like any of the 2020 Dems will be on the Sunday morning talk shows this week:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

Another Gillibrand non-denial (this one from Gillibrand herself rather than a spokesman):

http://wnyt.com/news/gillibrand-mattis-regional-food-bank-president-2020/4333883/

Revisiting this non-denial denial from two weeks ago, I guess this is the exact wording:

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2016/11/asked-about-2020-cuomo-says-run-in-2018-107374


"I plan to run for reelection and that's it" seems to have been enough for Wikipedia to say that Cuomo has already declined to run for prez in 2020.  But I don't know.  Reading that answer as a whole, it sounds like a classic non-denial denial to me.

^Yeah, I wouldn't consider that a denial.

If Tulsi Gabbard were Senator Gabbard then she'd be a very strong contender for 2020, unfortunately she seems boxed in Hawaii with nowhere to go. Abercrombie losing in 2014 was probably the worst thing for her career considering she could've ran for Gov when he termed out. Hirono and Schatz aren't going anywhere so she is stuck.

Biden might run. https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/805923064382898177

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/joe-biden-predicts-he-will-run-for-president-in-2020-adds-that-he-is-not-yet-committed.html

The story on Biden

If you take that quote at face value, then he's already announced his candidacy.  :P

Biden is the only person Julian Castro would make sense for.

Gabbard is still incredibly young, so I think a 2020 presidential run would be an unwise career move for her. If Hirono decides to retire in 2024, she could easily win the Senate seat and she'd only be 43, or she can make a run for the governor race in 2022 when Ige finishes his second term.

Eh, maybe. I'm not as enthused for a Biden run as I was for 2016, but I could be convinced to support his candidacy.

A couple of pages ago in this thread, I noted how Booker, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar sneakily all did some campaigning in both Iowa and New Hampshire this past year either for Clinton or for other Democratic candidates.  Well, if we’re now going to take Joe Biden 2020 as a serious topic of conversation, I just tried searching for the places where he campaigned for Clinton this year.  One early primary/caucus state he campaigned in was Nevada:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/joe-biden-campaigns-hillary-clinton-nevada-candidates-during-las-vegas

Otherwise, he was stumping for Clinton in FL, NC, OH, PA, and WI this fall.  No Iowa or New Hampshire that I could find.  But I just did a quick Google search, so maybe it’s there, and I just didn’t find it.

I keep wondering why James Lankford is never talked about for the Republican nom? Can anyone explain?

Now that Ben is taking over HUD it should be watched closely as any story of HUD doing worse or better than now will be the fueling decision for Julian Castro

I love you Biden, but don't p*ss around with this now. You won't run in 2020, but you probably should have run this year. I love you, and you've been great, but now its time to ride off into (what is hopefully a fun and amusing) retirement.

It'd be helpful to hear audio of that, but it seems like typical Biden irony.

Has he done anything to indicate that he's interested in running?  The people I'm talking about in this thread are people who have done *something* to indicate that they might be interested in running.

In any case, with Trump presumably running for reelection in 2020, it's not even clear that the GOP nomination will be contested.  If it is contested, I'm guessing that it'll be someone from the "Liberty wing" of the party, with Justin Amash being the most likely.  Amash actually made multiple statements in the last year to indicate that he's interesting in running for president some day, and he's so far been chief critic of Trump within the Republican caucus in the House.  He tweets some criticism of Trump's comments or policies every few days, while all the other Congressional Republicans are playing nice (for now).