|
Title: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2016, 01:52:58 AM 300 LV, July 7-12:
29% Trump 27% Clinton 26% Johnson 8% Others 10% Undecided http://www.y2analytics.com PDF link (https://doc-0k-14-docs.googleusercontent.com/docs/securesc/ha0ro937gcuc7l7deffksulhg5h7mbp1/j03e4nlfl5tq7602r18ndf3snmia163u/1469080800000/18317280022351463624/*/0B6-zXaKeceR4ZW5WZ21la0xNWlk?e=download) Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Dr. Arch on July 21, 2016, 01:53:48 AM Battleground Utah.
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2016, 01:53:59 AM Go, Johnson/Stein !
Nothing would be better if both trainwrecks Trump and Clinton got only 1/3 of the vote each ... :P Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2016, 01:54:37 AM BTW, Rep. Mia Love (R) leads 51-36-4 in the poll.
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Xing on July 21, 2016, 01:55:39 AM Maybe CNN was right to make UT only Lean R.
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Wisconsin+17 on July 21, 2016, 01:58:05 AM LOL
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2016, 02:01:32 AM Favourable ratings:
20-74 Trump 24-72 Clinton Both have a 99% name recognition. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Reginald on July 21, 2016, 02:04:04 AM lol:
Definitely Trump: 14% Trump, could change mind: 9% Trump, if I have to choose: 6% Definitely Clinton: 19% Clinton, could change mind: 5% Clinton, if I have to choose: 4% Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 21, 2016, 02:07:39 AM Maybe CNN was right to make UT only Lean R. UT-04 is a little bit left of the state as a whole. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Seriously? on July 21, 2016, 02:12:06 AM Johnson support is very weak there. Of the alleged 26%, 9% are firm, the other 17% is soft and, if history is any indicator with third parties, will likely collapse.
UT-4 is also the least Republican-leaning district in the state as far as Cook PVI goes (D+16), which points towards a Trump lead in the state, although a lot closer than it should be. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 21, 2016, 05:50:43 AM UT-4 is also the least Republican-leaning district in the state as far as Cook PVI goes (D+16), which points towards a Trump lead in the state, although a lot closer than it should be. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: SherlockHound on July 21, 2016, 06:54:09 AM It would make me so happy if Gary Johnson somehow pulls out a state.
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: RJEvans on July 21, 2016, 06:57:27 AM A Romney endorsement will do wonders for Johnson. It could deny Trump a precious 6EV.
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on July 21, 2016, 06:57:56 AM I can't take this election anymore. This entire cycle has been an outlier
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Skye on July 21, 2016, 07:54:05 AM Johnson at 26? That's super high. He hasn't gotten numbers like that in other Utah polls.
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Redban on July 21, 2016, 08:18:46 AM It would make me so happy if Gary Johnson somehow pulls out a state. Johnson at 26? That's super high. He hasn't gotten numbers like that in other Utah polls. I can't take this election anymore. This entire cycle has been an outlier A Romney endorsement will do wonders for Johnson. It could deny Trump a precious 6EV. This poll, I believe, represents one district in Utah (UT-04), not the whole state. Therefore, this poll doesn't bespeak anything about Johnson's chances in Utah, about Hillary's chances in Utah, or about Trump's vulnerability in Utah. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Skye on July 21, 2016, 08:38:51 AM It would make me so happy if Gary Johnson somehow pulls out a state. Johnson at 26? That's super high. He hasn't gotten numbers like that in other Utah polls. I can't take this election anymore. This entire cycle has been an outlier A Romney endorsement will do wonders for Johnson. It could deny Trump a precious 6EV. This poll, I believe, represents one district in Utah (UT-04), not the whole state. Therefore, this poll doesn't bespeak anything about Johnson's chances in Utah, about Hillary's chances in Utah, or about Trump's vulnerability in Utah. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Sir Mohamed on July 21, 2016, 09:21:56 AM LOL, Hillary could actually win here.
Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: pbrower2a on July 21, 2016, 09:26:45 AM No, Johnson could actually win here.
Don;t get me wrong -- I want Hillary Clinton to win. With his calls for violence, Donald Trump offends Mormons, a people who tolerate violence only when it is hunting, self-defense, or law enforcement. A Republican convention that sounds like a drunken brawl would offend Mormons. What will decide Utah? Whom does the Latter-Day Saint (LDS) hierarchy endorse? Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Senator Cris on July 21, 2016, 11:03:56 AM 2012 President:
Candidate / Utah-04 / Utah / Difference Romney / 67.2% / 72.6% / + 5.4% Obama / 30.2% / 24.7% / - 5.5% Others / 2.6% / 2.7% / 0.1% Applying that %s to the data of this poll: Trump: 29% --> 34.4% Clinton: 27% --> 21.5% Others: 34% --> 34.1% That's all without undecided. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: OneJ on July 21, 2016, 07:41:23 PM Go, Johnson/Stein ! Nothing would be better if both trainwrecks Trump and Clinton got only 1/3 of the vote each ... :P FYI, Stein is a train wreck herself. Anyways, I find it interesting that a state like Utah that was R+40 just 4 years ago is now a literal battleground. Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Lachi on July 26, 2016, 06:12:00 AM 29% Trump
27% Clinton 26% Johnson How in anyway is this a tie? Title: Re: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie ! Post by: Phony Moderate on July 26, 2016, 06:21:29 AM 29% Trump 27% Clinton 26% Johnson How in anyway is this a tie? MoE. But anyway, can Trump really be that bad if he's so unpopular in *this* state? Same can be said for Hillary too probably. |