Talk Elections

Continued from "Era of the New Majority," the election night coverage of 2028 (mixing it up this time).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=202832.0

Yay! :D

SO PUMPED

Welcome to continuing coverage on CNN of Election Night 2028! Tonight marks the end of a long, hard-fought campaign to succeed Republican President Brian Sandoval, who chose, to great surprise and controversy, not to seek a second term in office. Massachusetts Governor Seth Moulton, the Democrat, is favored over Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, but how soon will we know who the next President is? Will Democrats increased their majorities in the Senate and House, or will Republicans snatch back seats? And will the GOP hang on to their clean sweep of Gubernatorial mansions from four years ago, discounting Vermont and New Hampshire?

Tonight will be hosted by CNN Senior Correspondent Anderson Cooper. Joining him will be Senior Political Correspondent Luke Russert, formerly of NBC, and former House Minority Leader Terri Sewell, our Senior Contributor, along with former Indiana Governor and 2020 Republican Presidential nominee, Mike Pence, CNN Roundtable Political Contributor.


Throughout the night we will also be tracking the Senate and Gubernatorial results, with periodic updates on House races and other races of interest.

Cooper: Well, we're getting close to 6 pm ET, which means we'll have our first poll closings in Indiana and Kentucky, as is tradition. Word from Boston, where the Moulton camp is holed up right now, is that they feel pretty good heading into tonight. These should be two safe states for Tom Cotton, of course, who also projected confidence. Anything anyone else wants to contribute?

Pence: Well, I think in my old home state of Indiana, you know, Senator Cotton is in a position of strength. I'm interested in observing how the downballot races go. We're in a position there, the Republicans, that is, where there's some competitive races. Obviously in the 2nd CD we're looking at Congressman Dvorak and defeating him, and then there's an open seat for my old office of Governor and Senator Young is going to be in a tight race. I think the GOP will pull this out, though.

Russert: I think this is the canary in the coal mine, guys. The Electoral College becomes more and more stacked for Democrats almost every cycle, it seems, and Brian Sandoval really drew an inside flush against a bad poker player four years ago. If Governor Moulton keeps things close in Indiana, and maybe even Kentucky, does that signal that he's in for not just a good night but a historic night?

Sewell: Two years ago was a historic night. I think if Democrats can maintain those gains, we're looking at a realigning election. I also want to point out that you've got a Senate race in Kentucky between Senator Guthrie and former Secretary of State Adam Edelen that could get interesting later on. Edelen is kind of a Bill Clinton-style Democrat, Southern white moderate, you know, and there's been a lot of memories of President Clinton over the last month.

Russert: Kentucky is a race to watch. Obviously I think Senator Andy Beshear had lightning strike there two years ago in terms of a perfect storm of circumstance and opponent, and Cotton will definitely carry this state. However, Kentucky Democrats are trying to hang on to that State House of Representatives and Guthrie isn't a Rand Paul or a Mitch McConnell in terms of somebody with a  profile. Speaking of which, we're going to have former Senator Paul on later tonight to talk about his Liberty Initiative and what he thinks about the future of the Republican Party, regardless of if Senator Cotton becomes President Cotton.

6 PM ET

Cooper: And the polls have closed in most of Kentucky and most of Indiana! We've got about an hour left in parts of these states but we can start putting some numbers and projections out now.

For Indiana we are declaring it "Too Early to Call." Governor Pence, you have any thoughts on your home state?

Pence: I think Too Early to Call is right, Anderson. Look, I don't think Senator Cotton will lose here, but the polls just closed and there are some interesting races going on. I think we'll see Cotton come through in the end here.

Russert: We are going to issue the same call on the Governor's race, between US Rep. Susan Brooks and former South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg - Too Early to Call. The Senate race, between former US Rep. John Broden and Senator Todd Young, the same - Too Early to Call.

Meanwhile, we can call the race in the 5th Congressional District already for Republican candidate State Representative Alice Hogue. Hogue is the projected winner here. We're also projecting House Minority Leader Luke Messer to easily win the 6th Congressional District. We have competitive races in the 2nd, 8th and 9th that are Too Early to Call. We think, based on the information we have, that all of the other incumbents should carry easily. Governor Pence?

Pence: Spot on, Luke.

At this time we also project that Senator Cotton will carry Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. The Senate race in Kentucky is likewise Too Early to Call.


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 0
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 8

Russert: A few calls to make in key House races as we approach 6:30 and more counts come in from around the country. In Indiana, in what is known as the Bloody 8th, it looks like US Rep. Kevin Dunkett will likely be reelected to a second term. Right now, with 38% of precincts in, he leads 54-44 in a rematch over former Vandenburgh District Attorney Phil Brice. It is still Too Close to Call next door in the 9th in a race between Rep. Eric Maleen and former State Rep. Terry Goodin. We can also project that US Rep. Adam Koenig has been reelected in Kentucky's 4th District. Other races are too Early to call or Too Close to Call.

Pence: This looks a lot like two years ago, when Congressman Maleen pulled through narrowly in the end. He seems to be winning similar margins in some of the rural districts he won last time, though turnout appears to be slightly lower. It'll be interesting to see if he holds on - this will be a nailbiter. You know, I know Eric Maleen, good guy. This is a race to watch in Indiana tonight.

Russert: More updates here for you. Indiana's statewide races are all still too early to call, and in Kentucky we are projecting again all incumbents in the US House in the Eastern Time Zone will carry. So far, in Indiana, it looks like US Rep. Ryan Dvorak has a pretty decisive lead in the 2nd, looks like he's about seven to eight points ahead with almost half of the precincts counted as we are just about to make some calls at seven. Really quick counting in Indiana tonight.

Sewell: Yeah, your state is doing pretty good, Governor.

Pence: Thanks.

Russert: Interestingly, we are still too close to call on the Senate race in Kentucky. Adam Edelen is only a percentage point or two behind Senator Brett Guthrie and the numbers out of Louisville are really good for Edelen, with him winning over 60% of the vote in Jefferson County, and so far good numbers in Fayette, where he's doing really well, too. Edelen has that rural touch, I think.

Pence: Just keep in mind that Beshear was ahead most of election night and had much better numbers in rural Kentucky than Edelen does. Guthrie is doing okay so far, but this is not what you want to see if you work at the NRSC when extrapolating out to some more competitive races. The fact that Guthrie has such a small advantage and that Indiana is too close to call... I'd be concerned with some of these early returns.

7:00 PM ET

Cooper: It's 7 PM on the East Coast which means we have our first big batch of poll closings, and we'll have some more at the half hour. Want to take us through, Luke?

Russert: In the Presidential race, CNN projects Vermont will be won by Governor Seth Moulton, who earns the state's 3 electoral votes. Right now we are calling Georgia Too Early to Call and we are doing the same in New Hampshire. We will not be making any calls in Florida until voting stops in the Panhandle in one hour.

Based on polling and fundamentals, we are going to call West Virginia for Tom Cotton, and we are also going to call South Carolina "Too Early to Call," though we believe Cotton should have the advantage there too.

Sewell: Crazy to think South Carolina could be competitive...

Pence: I think it'll swing Cotton soon enough.


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 3
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 12

Russert: We also have some calls to make in some down-ballot races in these states, too. In Vermont, CNN projects that Senate President Pro Tem Pat Leahy will be elected to a record tenth term in the United States Senate. He is already the longest serving Senator ever, and will break John Dingell's record for longest service in Congress if he lives until the expiration of this term.

Cooper: Amazing stuff.

Russert: We also project that Governor Chris Pearson of Vermont will be elected to a second two-year term, as will Governor Collin Van Ostern in New Hampshire. The Senate race in New Hampshire is still too early to call, though with 3% of precincts reporting the returns seem to heavily favor US Rep. Matt Woodburn over Senator Chris Sununu.

Meanwhile, we are going to project in West Virginia that Governor Evan Jenkins will be reelected to a second term in that office, while we are going to project that South Carolina's junior Senator Tim Scott will defeat Democratic Congressman Joel Lourie, based on available polling and race fundamentals. Georgia's Senate race, between Senator Rob Woodall and US Rep. Eric Stanton, is Too Early to Call.

Pence: Keep in mind that Georgia has a runoff provision if neither candidate clears 50%.

Cooper: We are getting close to the 7:30 hour and we have a few more calls.

Russert: At this time we are comfortable, with the information we have, on calling the Indiana Gubernatorial race for former South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg, our first Democratic pickup of the night in any race. Right, now, with 61% of precincts reporting and many parts of Indianapolis and Northwest Indiana still out, Buttigieg leads Susan Brooks 52-47, a deficit we doubt she can make up. The Senate and Presidential races are both still Too Close to Call, but Buttigieg outperformed both.

Sewell: Amazing that a young, openly gay candidate like Buttigieg would carry a conservative state like Indiana. Your thoughts, Mike?

Pence: Well, I think attitudes have changed somewhat, but Hoosiers really just... well, I think they looked at the quality of the candidates. Congratulations, Governor-elect Buttigieg. It's a tremendous job, I should know.

Russert: With the information we have in Kentucky, we are also calling the Bluegrass State's Senate race for incumbent Senator Brett Guthrie, who has held a narrowly lead persistently. Lightning didn't strike twice, it appears, but Edelen kept this close.

Pence: Really close. Republicans should be concerned about this.

Cooper: Should the GOP be concerned about Kentucky moving forward? A lot has been made of the decline of rural areas across the country and Kentucky is a state with two fairly large cities in Louisville and, increasingly, Lexington. Your thoughts?

Pence: Long term, it's hard to say. I think Kentucky is going to remain a GOP stronghold for a long time. Close calls like these need to stop, though, if the GOP is going to remain competitive across the map.

For reference, the gradients I'm using:

90% Incumbent Hold
70% Open Seat Hold
50% Open Seat Gain
30% Pickup w/ defeat Incumbent

You put that there just to annoy me, didn't you?

Your attention to detail is worth a medal.

Thank you, I appreciate that. Between this and my books I sometimes feel overwhelmed :P

I also wonder if I have undiagnosed OCD

Bump.

7:30 ET

Cooper: It is 7:30 PM here on the East Coast which means polls have closed in Ohio and North Carolina, two of the most important swing states in the country, and both have traditionally leaned GOP more so than many other swing states.

Russert: Ohio has trended Republican, which North Carolina has gone the opposite way, but yes.

Cooper: As of right now, we are calling both Ohio and North Carolina as "Too Early to Call."


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 3
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 12

I love this timeline so much! It is so enjoyable and words cannot state how much I appreciate your hard work and dedication to making it perfect (even though it's not exactly what I hope becomes of America LOL)!

Cooper: We also have calls to make in a few other races here. First, that House race we were watching in Southern Indiana, in the 9th - US Rep. Eric Maleen has been elected to a second term in the United States House. This was a target for the DCCC, so it appears that so far the GOP is not losing any ground it gave two years ago.

Some other calls, however. Right now we are rating Ohio's Senate race as "Too Early to Call" as polls have closed but numbers are not trickling in. North Carolina's Senate seat as "Too Close to Call" as Senator Richard Hudson tries to fend off State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Jackson. We're also rating the Gubernatorial race in North Carolinas as "Too Early to Call" between Governor Pat McHenry and former Lieutenant Governor Don Davis. Any notes here, Luke?

Russert: Remember that the Tar Heel State has a habit of kicking incumbents to the curb, of both parties. Their Senate seats switch around quickly, and the Mansion has started to get that way recently, too. This is the country's prime swing state these days. I think Anthony Foxx on the ballot helps, but it'll be interesting to watch.

With that said, we have a big call up in New Hampshire. With 40% of the vote in and a 57-39 advantage, we are calling the US Senate race for US Rep. Matt Woodburn over US Senator Chris Sununu, the first Senate gain for Democrats tonight! An absolute pasting.

Pence: I think Governor Moulton being from right next door helps, but this is a state that swung hard right to President Sandoval four years ago and is swinging right back.

Russert: You made a big investment there eight years ago, Governor.

Pence: I did, but it's a tough state to crack, both in the primary and the general. I have a bunch of New Hampshire stories I could tell, really great people up in the Granite State, take politics seriously and love retail politics. It's really critical to engage the female vote, too. A lot of women, a lot of them angry, and you have to speak to those angry women.

Russert: Again, we are calling this race in favor of Congressman Woodburn. Chris Sununu has been defeated, the Democrats have their first Senate pickup of the night.

Sewell: For those of you at home, we're holding off on calling New Hampshire on the Presidential side for a little longer. Woodburn is outpacing Governor Moulton by enough, but the numbers in New Hampshire are good ones for the Moulton campaign.

7:48

Cooper: So what else are we watching tonight, Luke?

Russert: We have some interesting ones. We have, the big one, of course, the statehood referendum in Puerto Rico, the most direct that question has ever been presented. President Sandoval has campaigned for it recently and it has the support of the Democratic Party.

Cooper: What else?

Russert: For you election junkies out there, if you're watching state legislative and statewide races, we have some barnburners. Democrats want to sweep the North Carolina state offices tonight and have a young, hungry bench in place to do that. They're also protecting two state Houses they flipped two years ago in North Carolina and Kentucky - right now they look on track to keep both, and with a larger majority in North Carolina, but stay tuned. In some other state house races, it appears that Democrats are cruising to a slightly reduced majority in the New Hampshire state house, and there are two State Senate races outstanding up there, with a win in either giving them a majority in the New Hampshire State Senate for the first time in... oh, geez, I don't know how long. Decades. It's deadlocked now, was deadlocked ten years ago at the zenith of the Hillary landslide over Ted Cruz, and it's been almost twenty years since they had an outright majority.

Pence: I bet the Granite State's newly reelected Governor Van Ostern is watching those races carefully tonight.

Russert: In news that will probably not excite Democrats, Governor-elect Buttigieg in Indiana looks like he'll have total GOP control over the state house, as any gains the Democrats see in Indianapolis will be minor compared to their big wins two years ago, and statewide offices all currently see the GOP comfortably ahead.

Pence: We know how to win them in the Hoosier State.

Cooper: Don't get too comfortable, Governor, Senator Young is still not out of the woods. As of right now, Indiana's US Senate race is still "Too Close to Call" and former US Rep. John Broden has a very narrow lead, within less than 1% with 79% of the vote counted.

8:00 ET

Cooper: It's our biggest close of the night as the clock strikes 8:00 PM here on the East Coast. We have a flurry of calls coming at you, so hold on tight. Luke, take it away!

Russert: For states that have JUST closed, we can make the following calls:

We are Governor Moulton's home state of Massachusetts for Governor Seth Moulton, CNN projects Seth Moulton will win Massachusetts' 11 electoral votes. We are also projecting that Governor Seth Moulton will win Connecticut's 7 electoral votes and Rhode Island's 3 electoral votes. As of right now, CNN regards Maine's statewide vote as "Too Early to Call," but we can award Maine's 1st District to Governor Moulton as of right now.

Moving down the map, we can also call New Jersey, with 14 electoral votes, for Governor Moulton. CNN also projects that Governor Moulton will carry Maryland, with 10 electoral votes, and we project that Governor Moulton has won Delaware and the District of Columbia, each with 3 electoral votes. Next door, we have Virginia, a perennial swing state and bellwether - the Old Dominion, as of poll closing time, is "Too Early to Call." We are also going to put Pennsylvania, though it has not gone Republican since 1988, at "Too Early to Call." Remember that Brian Sandoval very nearly flipped both of these states four years ago, and they have been at the forefront of Senator Cotton's strategy.

Moving south, Florida has officially closed its polls in the panhandle and we can move it into the exciting category of "Too Early to Call." Alabama, with 8 electoral votes, we are projecting has voted for Tom Cotton. We are also projecting that Mississippi, with 6 electoral votes, has voted for Senator Cotton. Finally, we can project that Tennessee, and its 11 electoral votes, has voted for Tom Cotton.

Michigan, Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas will close their polls at 8:30 ET, and we should be able to safely project those pretty quickly.

Sewell: Also note that we have not called South Carolina yet but that call will be coming up in a few moments as we go around some downballot races first.


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 55
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 37

Russert: We also have a slew of calls to make on downballot races. Delaware's Governor race is Too Early to Call so we will go around the Senate here really quickly.

We are projecting that former Governor William Tong will win Connecticut's open Senate seat, a Hold for the Democrats. We are also projecting that incumbent US Senator John Sarbanes will hold on in Maryland without any issues, another Hold for Team D.

Florida's Senate race between Marco Rubio and US Rep. Evan Jenne is "Too Early to Call," as is the Senate race in Pennsylvania between Democrat Brendan Boyle and Republican Scott Perry, both US Representatives. We are VERY confident in projecting that US Senator Marthy Roby has been reelected comfortably in Alabama, a Hold for the GOP.

Not to be a shill, but are either of you two (or any other patrons and fans of EOTNM) interested in reading any of my novels?

Russert: Okay, now that we're through that, we've actually got TWO calls to make. Terri, why don't you take these?

Sewell: Thanks Luke. Because they're very fast down in the Palmetto State, we have enough of the vote in to safely call South Carolina and its 9 electoral votes for Senator Tom Cotton. This is looking to be a much narrower win than usual for a Republican, though - we're looking at a 52-47 margin.

Pence: Yikes.

Sewell: And in other bad news for the Cotton campaign, we are projecting that New Hampshire will lend its 4 electoral votes to Governor Moulton, who is steadily hanging on to a twelve-point lead in the Granite State, leading 55-43. We are also calling that Democrats have flipped the New Hampshire Senate and are projecting they will now hold the New Hampshire House with an INCREASED majority, which is a pretty big turn of events. A really good night for Democrats in the swingy Granite State!


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 59
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 46

How is New Hampshire still a swing state in 2028? You do know it will be trending HARD to the left over the next 12 years, right?

Gotta throw SOME suspense in for TNvolunteer hehe. I also think that quirky states stay quirky, but that's just me.

I would definitely consider reading your work FWIW

What are their typical subject matters?

Subject (i am, surely, one of the fans of EOTNM)?))

Responding to all above:

I mostly dabble in science fiction, with four novels (the first is free!) in an unfinished series (working on #5 next) and have two spinoffs in that universe coming out this fall. Also have an unrelated police procedural/thriller I wrote.

If interested I'll PM you the link to my author page on Amazon (I am 100% eBook). I'm not big on using my real name on Atlas since I am "a liberal who writes conservative books" like mil SF and dark police thrillers and many of my readers may be alienated by EOTNM even though it's not exactly a liberal's fantasy. My books are pretty grim, just like EOTNM.

By the way, the Democrats last controlled the state senate in 2010. At least, that's when they had their last President there.

Good timeline. I'm excited for a Moulton-Foxx administration, even if I might prefer it the other way around.

Russert: A few more calls to make here as we go around the country, folks.

So far, "Yes" is winning in the Puerto Rico statehood referendum by a six-point margin, 53-47. Some Puerto Ricans said a "simple majority" wouldn't be enough, but this looks a little more decisive than the 50+1. President Sandoval is, of course, in Puerto Rico tonight rather than in Little Rock with Senator Cotton. No love lost between those two.

Pence: I like the President, a lot, which you all know, but I think he could have handled that much better...

Russert: Mike, I'll let you take this next one.

Pence: With pleasure. In Indiana's 9th District, US Rep. Eric Maleen will be a Hold for the GOP as he has defeated Terry Goodin a second straight time. So far, all of the House races in Indiana the Republicans worried about are Holds.

We have a few other races we're watching as we go around the country. A big one in your home state, Terri, where in the 2nd District freshman Democrat Brian Crook is hanging on by a hair, currently ahead by only 3,000 votes. He has voted to the right of the Democratic caucus consistently in the House but he was at the top of every list of most vulnerable incumbents. Your thoughts, Terri?

Sewell: Congressman Crook is a talented politician, great on the stump, a real throwback to the old Blue Dog Democrat, definitely an interesting case as he's a conservative white Democrat who represents the really progressive black communities in Birmingham and the very, very conservative suburbs to the north and in the rest of Jefferson County. Will be interesting to see if he can survive 2030 if he holds on tonight and we see a hypothetical Moulton Presidency.

We also take you to Virginia's 2nd District, where right now Democrat Jon Bolivar narrowly leads Glenn Davis 50-49 in a tight race. Watch this one, because both Presidential candidates having a military back ground and both Congressional candidates having a military background is having an effect down-ballot here.

If PR votes to become a state, could resistance in the Senate ultimately result that in it not attaining statehood?

Cooper: For you real political junkies, we are also watching some more state house races. Again, we projected earlier that Democrats will Gain the New Hampshire Senate. So far, most state legislatures are staying pat - both Houses in Indiana will remain in Republican hands, Kentucky's House of Representatives will stay Democratic by a narrow majority again, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina will maintain monster Republican majorities. In a big blow to Democrats, including Governor Joe Schiavoni, it also looks like Republicans will hold the Ohio legislature at this time, albeit with a very narrow 50-49 majority in the State House as of right now. The Ohio Senate looks set to stay 18-15 barring any changes, as Republicans lead in all competitive races. Stay tuned for more information.

We have some intriguing races in the Atlantic region. Right now, we are projecting Democrats will Hold the Pennsylvania Senate, perhaps making some gains there, too. The Pennsylvania House of Representatives, currently Republican controlled, very close, is Too Close to Call. The North Carolina House of Representatives, currently narrowly held by Democrats, is also Too Close to Call. The North Carolina Senate is also Too Close to Call, although Republicans lead in 3 of the most competitive 4 races at this time, with very few precincts reporting.

Pence: It'll be interesting to see if Foxx on the ticket has much of a home state effect here.

Russert: I want to add that we are seeing Democratic pickups in Georgia tonight, with Republicans favored to hold both chambers in the State Legislature but with much narrowed majorities. We will have exact numbers later, the count in Georgia VERY slow this evening.

Sewell: Long lines throughout the state. Very exciting to see people participating.

Russert: Currently, both Houses of the Florida legislature are Too Early to Call, but Democrats appear to be in good position in both, with one seat in the Senate flipping the chamber and three in the House for a majority there. Wouldn't that be something.

It'll be an... interesting debate, I'm sure.

Agreed.
The arithmetic in the Senate would be difficult for statehood opponents I think. But who knows?

8:30

Cooper: Aaaand it's 8:30, which means polls have closed in an additional four states. Polls are now closed in Illinois, Missouri, Michigan and Arkansas.

At this time, CNN projects that Governor Moulton will win Illinois' 19 electoral votes, and we also project that Governor Moulton will carry Michigan's 15 electoral votes. Meanwhile, in one of our easiest projections of the night, we also predict that Senator Cotton will win his home state of Arkansas' 6 electoral votes with ease. Missouri is, as of right now, Too Early to Call. Mr. Cotton's running mate is, of course, Missouri's senior Senator Ann Wagner and he hails from the neighboring state. It will be interesting to see what happens here.

Pence: Yeah, keep in mind I did not carry Missouri eight years ago, and Missouri is a pretty conservative state. Should be interesting.

Russert: We are also changing our previous call in Ohio to "Too Close to Call," as Governor Moulton holds a narrow lead of less than 1%, with much of the state still outstanding. We are also projecting that Governor Moulton will win the statewide vote in Maine based on current reports, so we are moving the statewide 2 electoral votes to Governor Moulton. The 2nd District is, of course, still too close to call.


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 95
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 52

Russert: More calls across the board at the 8:30 hour here on the East Coast. Going from current poll closings first... we project that Senator Cheri Bustos of Illinois, Democrat, will be reelected, a Hold for Democrats. We also project that in Arkansas, former Governor Tim Griffin, Republican, will easily hold this open seat for the GOP.

Two big races in Missouri, meanwhile. In the Senate race we have a hot contest between Senator Scott Schaefer and the man he unseated six years ago, former US Senator Jason Kander. It is Too Early to Call. On the Gubernatorial side, meanwhile, Governor Eric Greitens faces off with State Senator Kendra James. Too Early to Call, but I think we can all agree Governor Greitens is favored to win here, too.

Some bad calls for the GOP around the country, meanwhile, as Senator Tim Ryan has been projected to Hold Ohio's Senate seat for the Democrats, while we are now projecting that Indiana Senator Todd Young has been defeated, I repeat, defeated by former US Rep. John Broden in a narrow contest. This is the second Senate Pickup for Democrats and CNN is now officially projecting that Democrats will Hold the United States Senate.

On the Gubernatorial side, some similar news as we are now projecting that former investment banker Mike Willem has defeated Governor Ken Simpler of Delaware by a narrow margin, and in North Carolina we are moving the race to Too Close to Call, Democratic Advantage as Don Davis appears to be largely ahead of Governor Patrick McHenry.

Pence: That's three Governor's mansions picked off by Democrats so far. Ouch.

Any thoughts, comments so far? Is this format working for everyone?

I will be on a hiatus from this for a little while with the long weekend and publishing my next book.

It works for me.....

Good election night so far! I can help you assemble a Cabinet when you're done, as that's fun for me. I understand some people on here don't like doing that, and so I would gladly help with that.

Good luck on that book, @KingSweden

Thanks! Doing my last read-through of the manuscript now.

I have an idea of another young Republican attorney: John Tyler Hammons. He's a former four year mayor of Muskogee. According to Wikipedia, he's a Assistant Attorney General of the Cherokee Nation. Maybe after a couple of years as Oklahoma Solicitor General, he could be a U. S. Attorney for a District and then get appointed to SCOTUS.

Russert: We have three more calls on the Presidential side here now, with a little more time gone by... At this time, we're calling Indiana for Senator Tom Cotton. A narrow win, but after several Democratic areas reported in it appears his 5 point lead will hold. Meanwhile, we're going to go ahead and call Virginia for Governor Moulton as Senator Cotton is not close to hitting the targets he needs to in Southern Virginia or the Richmond suburbs to win, and we are also calling Maine's 2nd district for Governor Moulton in a very narrow contest, where Moulton is ahead by just over 1% of the vote with the areas expected to be most favorable to Senator Cotton reporting in.


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 110
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 63

What's the projected margin in Virginia? Three to five points?

I'd have to imagine it's a little more than that. Probably more like six or seven points, after all this time/demographic shift. Left of the nation, I'd assume.

I do have to say I'm horrified of Chris Larson as Governor. Far left and vengeful.

Is he? I don't know much about him... that's gotten me into trouble with some picks over the time I've worked on this.

The Progressive left loves him, the mainstream/centrist left and the right hate him. So he could likely win a statewide primary.

The black community is against him though, or at least a lot of it. Called Lena Taylor "crazy" in the last election when she wouldn't bow to him and kiss the ring against Abele. Then due to that he got his pick Mandela Barnes (who he orchestrated to take out a moderate black Democrat in the assembly) to run against her and tried to pit Shorewood (white) against the rest of the district (black). Has tried to marginalize the black caucus in the capita (tried to open it up to anyone without their consent), has his own hand picked black candidates in the region that owe him favors, hasn't really done much for the community and has basically told them to get in line. The big reason why he's not liked though is a few years ago when a new district was formed (majority black but a majority white portion was added) he picked a white Democrat, campaigned only in the white areas and drove up turnout there which infuriated a lot of the black community.

Jesus! If only WA politics were so exciting, we just get EWA conservatives frwakimg out about busses/light rail and fruit loops in Seattle trying to out-Tumblr each other

Would be curious too, MJ, on your thoughts about Mandela Barnes' dumpster fire of a Prez run in this TL

9:00 PM ET

Cooper: Polls have now closed in a number of additional states and we will take you through the calls as they come in.

Russert: At 9 Eastern we are calling the following states: we are projecting that Governor Moulton will win New York's 28 electoral votes. We are also projecting that Governor Moulton will carry Minnesota's 9 electoral votes. At this time, we are projecting Wisconsin as Too Close to Call, with 10 electoral votes at stake.

A number of other states in the upper Midwest and plains have closed now, however. We are projecting that Senator Cotton will carry 3 electoral votes in South Dakota and 8 electoral votes in Louisiana. We are also projecting that Senator Cotton will win 6 electoral votes in Kansas as well as 7 in Oklahoma. Texas is Too Early to Call, Advantage Republican. Governor Moulton made an unprecedented push in that longstanding Republican state - if Texas is in danger, Cotton has no path. We are also projecting that Senator Cotton has won three of Nebraska's electoral votes, with two left Too Early to Call.


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 147
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 90

Would you like some help coming up with third party tickets?

Russert: Some more calls thanks to recent poll closings, though no big surprises here. In New York, we are calling the Senate race for Hakeem Jeffries picking up Chuck Schumer's vacant seat, and in Wisconsin, we are calling a hold for incumbent Senator Ron Kind. In Oklahoma, meanwhile, we are calling a hold for Senator James Lankford, and in South Dakota, a hold for former Senate leader John Thune, who surprised many by running for another term after the debacle two years ago and a decade atop the caucus. Interesting choice by the Senator here.

In terms of open races, Louisiana will head to a runoff in December between Major Thibaut, Democrat and Barrow Peacock, Republican. In the other open race being called right now, we have no big surprise in Kansas, where six-term Representative Garrett Love - who, we should add, is only 42! - is projected to easily hang on to retiring Republican Jerry Moran's Senate seat, and one of the longest active streaks of party shutouts in the country continues as Democrats cannot pick off a Senate seat in Kansas. It has been nearly a century.

Pence: One of the quirky things in Kansas is the rifts within the local GOP, you know, you saw this two years ago with Kobach coming back, with Derek Schmidt, the then-Governor, jumping into a Senate primary against a sitting Senator... some crazy things in the last few years there.

Sewell: And their Governor is a Democrat.

Pence: Yeah, Greg Orman. Was a Democrat, then an Independent, then a Democrat again. Interesting too in that a lot of people who would otherwise be Democrats run as Republicans so they can get elected, and a lot of the Democrats there are old-school conservatives to the right of the national party.

Sure! 3rd parties don't have much impact in this race but it'd probably be a good idea to get a feel on who'd run from where.

Russert: We have a few more calls to make around the country on some down-ticket races.

In North Carolina, we are projecting that Democrats will Hold the State House and Republicans will Hold the Senate, while Democrats are currently ahead in all statewide row officers, we are not ready to call any statewide races in the Tar Heel States. However, we are calling the first flipped House race of the night as Renee Ellmers has been defeated in her suburban Raleigh seat by Darren Jackson for a Gain of 1 for Democrats in the United States House of Representatives tonight.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, we are officially calling that Republicans will hold both state legislative houses narrowly, very narrowly. In Pennsylvania, we are now projecting a Democratic GAIN in the State House, meaning that Democrats will own a trifecta in the Keystone State after tonight, for the first time in twenty years.

We are also going to project that Republicans will Hold the Michigan Senate while Democrats will Hold the Michigan House, and that Democrats will Hold both houses of the legislature in Minnesota as well. Republicans are projected as of now to hold all legislative chambers in South Dakota, Kansas and Oklahoma, with Nebraska, of course, being a non-partisan unicameral chamber. Wisconsin is Too Early to Call, as is Texas.

Pence: It would be a disastrous night for Republicans if they lost either legislative chamber in Texas.

United States HoR: (D+1)

Democrats Gain:

NC-12 (Darren Jackson def. Renee Ellmers

KingSweeden, it should also be noted that Greg Orman was also a registered Republican at one point. He even donated to Todd Akin's Congressional campaign in 2006.

You know I thought I remembered him having been a Republican at one time but couldn't remember if that was the case and I was in a hurry. What an eclectic man.

He was, and the fact that he has spent time in both major parties is why there was so much question as to who he'd caucus with if he won. I believe he said he'd caucus in the majority, but if he decided control (imagine one man himself deciding control) he would give it serious, serious thought.

I remember that. Can you imagine McConnell and Reid both promising him the moon in return for his support?

We have that here too! Milwaukee is building a streetcar but he suburbs don't like it and tried to orchestrate two petitions (each failed spectacularly) and then tried to unseat the alderman who voted for it, even had a carpetbagger from Brookfield come to the south side, all lost too so we're safe! They always said we should spend that money on the buses instead, until the bus strike last summer where they said we really need to cut that funding (so basically bait and switch).


I imagine that's how it would play out. As of right now he's done in the Assembly. Got smacked by Lena Taylor and can't run for his old seat so he's done for awhile. I imagine he'll be back at some point though but with that devastating loss I don't think he gets far up the political chain.

Nothing has soured me on the modern GOP more than suburban/rural politicians telling cities what they "can" do with their own tax dollars. It's probably what made my transition from R to D complete. Wish there were more pro-transit Republicans like you :P

Big screw up by me! As any astute reader of EOTNM knows, I sometimes blow past crucial details and contradict myself. I did so a few posts ago when I said Svante Myrick had been reelected - this is not his Senate class! Instead, it is Schumer retiring. Hakeem Jeffries wins in landslide after defeating fellow US Rep. Ruben Diaz Jr in a hot primary.

Also, Don Davis is running for Senate in MC, Jeff Jackson for Governor.

Russert: We have some more calls in the US House of Representatives, some BIG calls in Florida. Terri, take it away.

Sewell: CNN is now projecting several additional gains for House Democrats, where we start in Michigan's 1st District. US Rep. Justin Pennington has been defeated by former US Marine Major Taylor Miller for a Democratic pickup in Michigan's UP region, a major blow in an area where so far Tom Cotton appears to be doing quite well. In addition, we are going to call three races in Florida as Democratic pickups:

In Florida's 8th District, Travis Hutson has been defeated, I repeat, has been defeated by Daytona Beach real estate developer Tim Wilemon. We are also calling both open GOP held seats in Miami Dade for Democrats, as Mario Diaz-Balart in the 26th and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the dean of the delegation, in the 27th, both retired. We are now calling that Bartolomeo Crespo has won in the 26th, and Andy Ramirez has won in the 27th, both Cuban-American Democrats. Wow.

Russert: Really goes to show the changing loyalties of Cuban Americans in just the last ten years. The fall of the Castro regime a few years ago surely helped a lot too with some of the older anti-communists.

Pence: A note on all this, if we're seeing longtime Cuban machine districts falling to Democrats, if I'm the campaign of Senate Minority Leader Marco Rubio - my old running mate - right now, I'm worried. The numbers out of Miami-Dade are not good.

Russert: We will note that Republicans are running close in a few House districts across the Midwest in Southern Illinois and in Ohio. Keep your eye on some of these races as the night goes on to see if they flip any back.

United States HoR: D+5

Democrats Gain:

FL-8 (Tim Wilemon def. Rep. Travis Hutson)
FL-26 (Bartolomeo Crespo open seat gain)
FL-27 (Andy Ramirez open seat gain)
MI-1 (Taylor Miller def. Rep. Justin Pennington)
NC-12 (Darren Jackson def. Rep. Renee Ellmers)

Wow (South Florida). The title really fits the timeline, demographic shifts are extremely important for the timeline and how the country moves pretty leftward. Despite it not aligning with my preferred direction of the country, I really enjoy reading it as it is super detailed, and I enjoy all timelines, regardless of the events. Keep up the good work.

A lot of it fits with my personal analysis (I'm not super duper liberal myself, though I am a Democrat). I don't think we're gonna wake up tomorrow and have an ur-progressive country, but twelve years from now a lot of these shifts will have metastasized. There are definitely states that will begin moving rightwards in future years, though, so keep your eye on those...

Of course, you did, for example, have that Republican wave in Oregon in 2022. And yes, while many red avatars get all pumped about solidly liberal Virginia, North Carolina, etc. in the future, some refuse to accept that some states will trend the other way. I don't think we'll ever have a super-liberal or super-conservative country, states will change. Also, I know that it will be a while before you get to it, but I am also really looking forward to seeing your 2030 reapportionment!

Haha yeahhhh that might be a while. I have a million and one things going on at work/with novels and it's been a crazy summer in my personal life too. This is a side project, for sure

RIP Travis Hutson, bonafide Conservative :(

Do you think he'll ever actually run?

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Thanks for the bump!

9:30 ET

Cooper: It is now 9:30 here on the East Coast and we have some more calls to make. Polls have closed in Iowa, and we have some additional calls in uncalled states to make.

Iowa is, right now, Too Early to Call. However, we can project that Governor Seth Moulton will carry Pennsylvania. We are also projecting that Governor Moulton will carry the state of North Carolina, flipping it back after President Sandoval won it four years ago. We are also going to call Minnesota for Governor Moulton. A massive haul for the Governor, and putting him in striking distance of the Presidency.

Russert: Yeah, Senator Cotton would need to run the board in the remaining swing states to still have a shot at this. He'd need Florida, where he currently trails but it is Too Early to Call, Georgia is tight, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin are really tight... we can't project Moulton as the victor quite yet, but this doesn't look good for Senator Cotton.

Pence: Right now I'm hearing from Republican friends of mine... despair. They're really depressed about tonight, about how it's unfolding.


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 191
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 90

Surprised about Virginia and NC being called so early in the night. Did vote-counting become more efficient?

Heh I'd hope so...

Unrelated, but I have a hunch that President Sandoval isn't watching the returns from the White House. I've got a feeling that he's in front of the TV at his ranch in Nevada, a smile on his face, a beer in hand... and Former President Heinrich next to him.

Okay, probably not, but a guy can dream!

Comment about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out like they said they would negated by me going back and discovering that Sandoval is confirmed to be in Puerto Rico

Maybe in 2032, they'll be old chums?

Maybe! George HW Bush and Bill Clinton ended up on good terms, so why can't they?

edit: the whole thing about Sandoval and Heinrich hanging out together is a reference to this:
With the negativity in OTL 2016, that struck a chord with me. I read that during my binge read of your TL the day after the second debate in OTL and all the mudslinging within it.

Heh I'd forgotten about that until you reminded me further upthread. Sandoval seems to me like the kind of man who'd hang out with his predecessor and just shoot the breeze.

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Russert: Don't go anywhere, we have more calls in the Senate races coming to you now.

In Iowa, we are projecting that Senator Pat Grassley will be reelected to a second term. Really incredible, this seat has been in his family for 48 years - longer than Senator Grassley has been alive. In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, we can now project that Democratic nominee Brendan Boyle will win and hold this open seat held by retiring Senator Joe Sestak.

We are also projecting in the state legislatures that Democrats will Hold both houses of the Illinois legislature, the legislatures in Wisconsin and Iowa are Too Early to Call.

YES!!! (not to Grassley holding the Iowa seat, but to updates on this thread)

Who was Grassley's opponent and what were the percentages? I'm guessing David Dawson if it's close(under four points). Otherwise Anesa Kajtazović, Monica Vernon, and Tyler Olson could hold him to a victory between four and seven percent.

Anesa is a House lifer in this TL with eyes on Ag Chairmanship whenever Tim Walz retires/is defeated. I'll get into the specifics when I do my full roundup on the EOTNM main thread, but his opponent was the handsome, charismatic young rising star Jim Lykam (sarcasm, but Lykam is the opponent). I don't think it'd be that close.

Edit: Holy sh*t Lykam is almost 80 at this point! Scratch that. Tyler Olson it is.

Sewell: We have two House calls to make, and these are... well, a little anti-climactic. We have two races with flips in Ohio, that cancel each other out.

Democrats are still sitting on five seats gained in the House so far as we go to Ohio, where freshman Democratic Rep. Lou Gentile in the 9th, based in the Mahoning Valley and rural Eastern Ohio, has fallen far enough back where CNN projects he cannot make a recovery, losing a rematch with former State Senator Don Berg from two years ago. Gentile ran the perfect campaign and appealed to this white working class region at the height of the Democratic wave but Cotton is seeing very strong numbers here and Gentile simply cannot recover.

However, the net gain remains at five because Democrats have just beaten six-term US Rep. Jim Hughes, whose district is based in the increasingly Democratic Columbus suburbs, with attorney George Parks taking out Hughes narrowly. We are seeing enough returns here to comfortably call this race for Parks, and it is thanks to strong Democratic margins in places like this that Seth Moulton is clinging to a perilously tight lead in Ohio right now, which we'll remind you is To Close to Call.

United States HoR: D+5

Democrats Gain:

FL-8 (Tim Wilemon def. Rep. Travis Hutson)
FL-26 (Bartolomeo Crespo open seat gain)
FL-27 (Andy Ramirez open seat gain)
MI-1 (Taylor Miller def. Rep. Justin Pennington)
NC-12 (Darren Jackson def. Rep. Renee Ellmers)
OH-6 (George Parks def. Rep. Jim Hughes)



Republicans Gain:

OH-9 (Don Berg def. Rep. Lou Gentile)

Damn. Sad to see Lou leave, he's really a great guy. Also extremely talented. At the same time, more than happy to see Hughes go. I forget what the OH-6 is supposed to look like, but I assume Parks is made up?

Roughly a East-West belt of counties from south of Franklin Co. to Zanesville. And yes, made up.

I just figured... that Eastern OH is a region that is going to swing super hard against Democrats long term, based on current patterns. At least from what I know, I could be wrong.

I mean, that's probably right. If Lou had Athens and a bit of the area around Youngstown, it might be a different story. He's a good fit for the district as is, but the trends do seem to be against him. (Fun Fact: Obama actually did better with Appalachian voters than Kerry did, so if it is a white man with positions comparable to Obama, maybe not? But that's not where the party's headed.)

If any Dem could hold the district, though, it would be Lou. His current seat in the State Senate is insane, by the way. It covers 9 full counties and a 10th in part. It was R+6 in '12, and Lou still got 52% of the vote--outperforming Obama by about 8%.

^^ sounds like he was the right pick for me winning that seat in '26, then.

Almost definitely yes. Keep up the good work!

Still really enjoying the timeline and the election night coverage! Thank you KingSweden!

Bump

Apologize for lack of updates, everyone - been crazy lately, in process of moving back to Seattle and I'm finally living with QueenSweden again after three months apart for work. This hasn't been in my list of priorities.

In the interest of getting this done... would y'all be okay with me just speeding this whole thing up? I hate not completing things I started, but... I kind of just want to dump a map and then do the regular through-line I typically do for elections.

Sure!

Do what you need to -- the end product will still be exceptional as always

You can speed this up, I'm okay with that.

Go ahead and show us a final map. Greatly appreciate all the little details you did work in.

It might take me a few days to get all the details together. Needless to say, my energy for this project has been... deflated by the events of the last few days.

It's a great althist now :P

Yes! I need hope that 2028 will be when Democrats *really* get things back on track for long term successs, if only in this timeline.

We need your TL now more than ever. (no pressure tho :P) I look forward to the continuation of EoTNM!

Your timeline, your decision

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Really hoping this gets concluded, even if it's rushed. I'm dying to know more!

Plot Twist: Seth Moulton wins the Presidency

In the next few weeks I'll try to find the time to at least do the map for this election and the Senate/Gov etc, then I can sketch out what I had in mind for the rest of the "Millennial Era".

Glad this is back.

The Final Map for 2028


Governor Seth Moulton/Senator Anthony Foxx - 421, 55.1%
Senator Tom Cotton/Senator Ann Wagner - 117, 42.7%

For a reminder, how many Senate (and House) seats does each party have? Or will they be posted in the main thread?

Project for another day, my friend ;) just wanted to get the maps posted for now.

Hopefully the first thing you mention is what the heck happened in Louisiana.

December runoff, as per usual

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