Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Kingpoleon on August 20, 2016, 06:18:55 PM



Title: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Kingpoleon on August 20, 2016, 06:18:55 PM
Well?

Personally I think Beshear and Chandler would be the strongest possible candidates.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 20, 2016, 06:24:18 PM
Andy Beshear. Kentucky is gone for any other democrat.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Heisenberg on August 20, 2016, 09:28:56 PM
Lol, Beshear isn't going to beat Bevin, especially not if Hillary Clinton is president. And McConnell isn't going to lose either.
Agree, as usual. Bevin isn't losing, and Kentucky Democrats CANNOT win a Senate race. For downballot races, Andy Beshear and/or Ben Chandler.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: RFayette on August 20, 2016, 09:55:32 PM
The 2019 Kentucky governor's election will be primarily a referendum on Bevin.  If he does prove to be a disaster, any Democrat on the list could beat him with the right conditions, and I don't think it makes a big difference between 'em.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: IceSpear on August 21, 2016, 01:14:46 AM
None will have a prayer.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Xing on August 21, 2016, 01:37:06 AM
Beshear might come slightly closer than Conway did, but Bevin won't lose, even if his approval ratings are in the 20s come 2019.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: politicallefty on August 21, 2016, 03:29:30 AM
Kentucky is gone for Democrats at the statewide level. They might win the odd statewide race here or there (AG or SoS, etc), but Governor and Senator are basically out of reach now. I do wonder how Governor Steve Beshear would have done if he had run against McConnell in 2014.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: JMT on August 21, 2016, 08:56:17 AM
Andy Beshear is likely the best statewide candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs against Bevin in 2019 if he's looking very unpopular at that point. I know Kentucky is a deep red state, but Beshear's father did win the Governorship a few years back and Beshear and Grimes both won in 2015. I think Bevin is favored for reelection at this point, but I wouldn't say he is completely safe like some are saying. Beshear and Grimes may not want to risk losing their current posts and may run for reelection though, that is certainly a possibility.

I agree about Mitch McConnell, though. Federal races are far different from state / local elections, and McConnell has quite the political machine set up, so I think he has his seat for as long as he wants it.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: 136or142 on August 21, 2016, 07:58:22 PM
Louisville mayor Greg Fischer is also popular.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Miles on August 21, 2016, 09:58:47 PM
Mongiardo, assuming his base in eastern KY still votes for him.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 23, 2016, 09:52:47 PM
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 23, 2016, 09:59:02 PM
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 23, 2016, 10:02:42 PM
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.

I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 23, 2016, 10:07:06 PM
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.

I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.

Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you with each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 23, 2016, 10:14:46 PM
Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you which each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.

You have to see what's occurring on the ground to really understand Kentucky politics.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: heatcharger on August 23, 2016, 10:17:20 PM
I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.

Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you which each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.

I'm sure it's happened in Illinois in the past. Of course, Louisville and Lexington are nowhere close to the share of the state that Chicago is for Illinois.

He's right though because unlike a state like say Arkansas, where the areas that are growing in population are Republican strongholds, Kentucky's growing regions are in Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincy suburbs. Unfortunately, it's gonna take some time for those regions to offset the losses in coal country.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 23, 2016, 10:19:48 PM
Plus, in many Republican counties, the county seat actually is a Democratic stronghold. I guess Mason County or Harrison County are like this.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: IceSpear on August 24, 2016, 02:49:39 PM
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

lol


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Heisenberg on August 24, 2016, 07:04:23 PM
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

lol
It's Bandit. Never argue with that troll. Ever. You can't win with him.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Cynthia on October 29, 2016, 11:02:18 PM
Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.

I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.

Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you with each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.
IL in 2010. Not 2 counties, but close.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Donerail on October 30, 2016, 12:47:22 AM
ITT: "There is no chance of even a popular Democrat defeating a deeply unpopular Republican three years from now. Despite controlling the state house and two statewide offices Kentucky Democrats have no prayer of winning an election ever. One good GOP year in 2015 has forever doomed the party to minority status."

Anyway Miles has the correct answer.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: diptheriadan on October 30, 2016, 01:07:10 AM
Steve Beshear? He still could run for the Senate and House.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Suburbia on November 01, 2016, 06:40:49 PM
Adam Edelen would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat. He's charming, doesn't have so much baggage. Just because he lost his Auditor's seat last year, doesn't mean that his political career is over. Rick Santorum lost his 2006 Pennsylvania Senate race against Bob Casey and still ran for President in 2012. If Bevin doesn't do a good job, it's possible that Edelen could give Bevin a challenge.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Suburbia on November 01, 2016, 06:41:13 PM
Steve Beshear? He still could run for the Senate and House.

True. He could be the DNC chair in 2017 as well.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Skye on November 01, 2016, 07:45:39 PM
Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you which each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.

You have to see what's occurring on the ground to really understand Kentucky politics.

That's weird, I've never been on Kentucky and I seem to understand more about it's politics than you.


Title: Re: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 01, 2016, 07:48:21 PM
That's weird, I've never been on Kentucky and I seem to understand more about it's politics than you.

Then who's my state representative?