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Title: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:07:26 PM Below you will find maps showing the state PVI and national PVI for each county. Eventually, I will add town maps for New England and wherever else is available. The color scheme is modified Atlas Swing, with colors darkening in 2.5 percentage increments, the darkest colors being D or R+30 or greater. Bellwethers, which I've defined as counties with state PVIs from D+1 to R+1 are in light grey or greenish grey, respectively.
The 50 state county maps are listed in the table below (working links to come as I add maps and anaylsis):
I have also made town PVI maps for the following states:
There is a separate ME-02 Town PVI Map (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244550.msg5238453#msg5238453) here. Other town maps may be forthcoming, though unofficial results in those states are usually reported first by county in those states, anyway. Nationwide maps of state and national PVIs are available here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244550.msg5238442#msg5238442). Interactive maps are also available on Carto.com (Nationwide PVI (https://cinyc.carto.com/viz/db6f3496-a601-11e6-8e8a-0ecd1babdde5/public_map), State PVI (https://cinyc.carto.com/viz/9153268c-a602-11e6-92b0-0ee66e2c9693/public_map)). The 2010 version of this project with maps for the states that held Senate races is available here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126829.0). Note that the color gradient is slightly different on those maps. Title: Alabama PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:07:59 PM Alabama
State PVI: () Alabama has one AL PVI bellwether county that has recently voted within 1 point of the state average two-party Democratic percentage for the last two elections - Colbert County in the northwest corner. It is home to Muscle Shoals, on the bank of the Tennessee River's Wilson Lake. National PVI: () Jefferson County (Birmingham) has voted in line with the national average over the past two elections. The vote in the county is very polarized, though, so using it as an early bellwether may not work, depending on which part of the county reports first. Marengo County (Demopolis) is also a national PVI bellwether. Note that Alabama's R+14 status has caused many relatively red counties in the state PVI map to turn blue. Those counties may be more Democratic than the state, but they're not that Democratic. You can clearly see Alabama's black belt - the string of (Atlas) red counties in the middle of the state. Title: Alaska PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:08:23 PM Alaska
State PVI: () Alaska has no County Equivalent state bellwethers. R+1.2 Ketchikan Gateway Borough comes close. This is probably all academic, though - Alaska doesn't report election results by County Equivalents, anyway. Alaska's largest city, Anchorage, is slightly more Democratic than the rest of the state (D+2.6). Note that the Wade Hampton Census area was recently renamed the Kusilvak Census Area. National PVI: () The Northwest Arctic (Kotzebue) and Dillingham Census Areas are national PVI bellwethers - at least for now. Bush Alaska has been trending away from Republicans recently, so their bellwether status might not hold for the 2016 election. Sitka is also a national PVI bellwether. Title: Arizona PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:10:11 PM Arizona
State PVI: () Arizona's largest county, Maricopa (Phoenix), is a state PVI bellwether, voting just 0.94 points more Republican than the state at large over the past two Presidential elections. Rural Navajo County, which stretches from part of the Navajo Indian reservation in the north to small towns like Winslow, Holbrook and Show Low in the center and to part of the Fort Apache Indian Reservation in the south, is an even better state PVI bellwether (R+0.49). Both counties are fairly diverse, though, so early returns might not be predictive. National PVI: () Pima County (Tucson) is a national bellwether in R+7 Arizona. Again, the county is fairly diverse, though, so early returns might not be predictive. Title: Arkansas PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:10:34 PM Arkansas
State PVI: () Arkansas has 6 AR PVI bellwether counties. All are pretty rural. Perhaps the most famous is Hempstead, which includes Bill Clinton's birthplace of Hope. Columbia (Magnolia), Arkansas (Stuttgart), Clay, Randolph and Carroll (Eureka Springs) Counties also fit the bill. National PVI: () The national PVI Arkansas map is much bluer, due to Arkansas's R+14 status. But there are still some red counties, largely along the Mississippi and surrounding its larger cities, Pulaski (Little Rock) and Jefferson (Pine Bluff). Arkansas has one national PVI bellwether county, rural Woodruff County. Title: California PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:10:55 PM California
State PVI: () If you want to predict how California will vote in a federal election, look to tiny Alpine and San Benito Counties. Those minnows tend to predict the margin in this very large state. National PVI: () San Bernadino County is a national PVI Bellwether - but is probably too large, diverse and late reporting to help prognosticators. Title: Colorado PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:12:21 PM Colorado
State PVI: () As Jefferson County in suburban Denver goes, so goes Colorado. Or you can try to project the state winner and margin by using tiny Ouray or larger Larimer Counties (Loveland, Fort Collins). Broomfield, near Denver, also tends to vote within 1 point of the two-party margin. National PVI: () Because Colorado is only a D+1 state (technically D+0.82), the national PVI map looks a lot like the CO PVI map, with the Democratic-leaning bellwethers being slightly less predictive. Ouray and Jefferson Counties are also national PVI bellwethers. They are joined by Las Animas County (Trinidad) in the southeast corner of the state. Title: Connecticut County PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:12:54 PM Connecticut
State PVI: () Counties don't matter much in Connecticut. Even election results tend to be reported by towns. But if you're aggregating town data, Middlesex (Middletown) and New London (New London, Groton) Counties tend to be most predictive of the state margin. National PVI: () D+7 Connecticut has no national PVI bellwether counties. Somewhat surprisingly, Litchfield County has an R+2.49 national PVI. All the rest of Connecticut's counties are more reliably Democratic than the national average. Title: Delaware PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:13:18 PM Delaware
State PVI: () Delaware only has three counties. None are DE PVI bellwethers. But you can see from the map that the state gets more Republican as you move south. National PVI: () Kent County, home to the state capital and Air Force Base in Dover, is a good national PVI bellwether, with a PVI of D+0.9, in this D+8 state. Title: Florida PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:14:07 PM Florida
State PVI: () Florida has three state PVI bellwether counties - rural Jefferson County in the panhandle, Volusia County (Daytona Beach) and Monroe County in the Florida Keys. National PVI: () Florida's R+2 status flips two light red counties into national PVI territory - Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties a.k.a Tampa-Saint Petersburg. Otherwise, the nationwide PVI map looks a lot like the FL PVI map. Title: Georgia PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:14:29 PM Georgia
State PVI: () Georgia's state PVI bellwethers are diverse, ranging from Atlanta-exurban Henry County (McDonough) to coastal McIntosh County to the more rural Meriwether and Screven Counties. It's not clear whether early results will be predictive, as racially polarized voting patterns tend to persist in southern states like Georgia. It's also not clear whether Henry County will maintain bellwether status as African-American voters move in from neighboring Clayton and DeKalb Counties. National PVI: () R+6 Georgia's national PVI bellwether counties are fairly small and clustered in the central part of the state - Sumter (Americus), Dooly, Peach (Fort Valley), Baldwin (Milledgeville) and Washington (Sandersville) Counties fit the description. Title: Hawaii PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:14:55 PM Hawaii
State PVI: () Hawaii only has 5 counties. None are state PVI bellwethers. But 4 of the 5 counties generally cast their votes withing 5 points on either side of the 2008-2012 two-party Democratic presidential percentage state mean. Only the leper colony of Kalawao County is significantly more Democratic than the state average. Hawaii is one state where the more urban areas (Honolulu County) are relatively more Republican than the more rural Neighbor Islands. National PVI: () All of Hawaii's counties are significantly more Democratic than average in this D+20 state. Given Obama's home state advantage in 2008 and 2012, it might trend a little bit more Republican this election, though. Hawaii was a D+8 state after the 2004 election. Title: Idaho PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:16:05 PM Idaho
State PVI: () Idaho has two state PVI bellwether counties - Kootenai (Coeur d'Alene) in the northern panhandle and Power, a rural county near Pocatello. It also is a lot more heterogeneous than Hawaii, with Blaine County, home of the ski communities in and around Sun Valley, voting extremely more Democratic than the rest of the state, and Mormon-heavy Madison (Rexburg - home of BYU Utah) and Franklin Counties voting more heavily Republican. National PVI: () Surprisingly for a deep-(Atlas) blue state, Latah County is a national PVI bellwether, with a PVI of D+0.06. Latah County is home to the University of Idaho in Moscow. Blaine County is the only other county with a D+ PVI in R+18 Idaho Title: Illinois PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:16:29 PM Illinois
State PVI: () Illinois has no state PVI bellwether counties. But because of the size and pro-Democratic tilt of Cook County, it has only two counties more Democratic than the state average - Cook and Rock Island. National PVI: () Illinois' D+8 status causes many Illinois PVI Atlas blue counties to turn red on the Nationwide PVI map, and creates a bunch of nationwide PVI bellwethers - from once reliably-Republican Chicago collar counties DuPage and Kane, to St. Louis-suburban Madison to the more rural Northern Illinois counties of Jo Daviess (Galena), Henry (Kewanee), Warren (Monmouth) and LaSalle (Ottawa/Lasalle/Streator/Mendota). These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Title: Indiana PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:17:42 PM Indiana
State PVI: () Unlike neighboring Illinois, Indiana has a number of state PVI bellwether counties, ranging from rural Starke County in the north to rural Scott and Crawford Counties in the South, to the more urban county of Vanderburgh (Evansville). Of the four counties, Vanderburgh was the least swingy from 2008 to 2012. National PVI: () Two Indiana counties qualified for national PVI bellwether status for the past two cycles, Chicago-exurban Porter (Valparaiso), and Lafayette's Tippecanoe. Both counties are home to universities - Valparaiso in Porter and Purdue in Tippecanoe. Tippecanoe had a much larger swing from 2008 to 2012 than Porter, which was almost dead even with the nationwide average in both cycles. Everyone's favorite Indiana bellwether county, Vigo (Terre Haute), has a nationwide PVI of D+1.4, and had a huge swing from 2008 to 2012. Vigo County has a track record of predicting the winner, but Porter County seems to have a better track record of predicting the nationwide margin, at least recently. Title: Iowa PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:18:13 PM Iowa
State PVI: () Iowa has 9 state PVI Counties - Bremer, Cedar, Boone, Webster, Jasper, Mitchell, Jones, Allamakee and Marshall. Most of those counties are very rural; only Marshall (Marshalltown), Jasper (Newton), Webster (Fort Dodge) and, arguably, Boone (Boone) have any towns of note. Marshalltown is known for its relatively large Hispanic population. Newton is the former home of Maytag. Of these 9 counties, Webster, Jones and Cedar were the least swingy - but Trump's anti-free trade rhetoric may play well in places like Jasper County this cycle. National PVI: () Iowa's PVI is only D+1, which makes the state PVI map look a lot like the national PVI map. As a result, the 5 slightly Republican-leaning statewide bellwether counties of Bremer, Cedar, Boone, Webster, Jasper also make the national PVI bellwether cut. They are joined by rural Winnebago and Union (Creston) Counties Title: Kansas PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:18:40 PM Kansas
State PVI: () Deep (non-Atlas) red Kansas has two state PVI bellwethers - Labette (Parsons) and Harvey (Newton) Counties. National PVI: () The national PVI map of R+12 Kansas turns to deep shades of Atlas blue, except in Wyandotte (Kansas City) and Douglas (Lawrence) Counties. As a result, there are no Kansas nationwide PVI bellwether counties. Title: Kentucky PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:19:11 PM Kentucky
State PVI: () Kentucky has 11 state PVI bellwether counties - from Floyd County in the Appalachian east to Bourbon (Paris), Nicholas, Montgomery, Powell and Woodford (Versailles) Counties in the Bluegrass to relatively rural Louisville-area Henry and Trimble Counties, to Fort Knox and Elizabethtown's Hardin County, Bowling Green's Warren County and relatively rural Henderson-area Union County in the west. All were fairly swingy, though, especially Floyd County, which went from giving Obama 49% of the two-party vote in 2008 to just 33% in 2012. National PVI: () Like Kansas, Kentucky has no national PVI bellwether counties. And, like Kansas, R+13 Kentucky only has two counties with a D+ nationwide PVI - Jefferson (Louisville) and Elliott. Title: Louisiana PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:19:34 PM Louisiana
State PVI: () Louisiana has one state PVI bellwether parish - Concordia Parish, in Eastern Louisiana along the Mississippi River. But because of racially polarized voting, early results may or may not reflect the final result. National PVI: () Two Louisiana parishes qualify as nationwide PVI bellwethers - Caddo (Shreveport) and East Baton Rouge (Baton Rouge). Both parishes trended Democratic compared to the national average from 2008 to 2012, and due to racially polarized voting, may not be good early predictors. Title: Maine PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:20:00 PM Maine
State PVI: () Hancock County, home to Bar Harbor and Acadia National Park, Sagahadoc County (Bath) and rural Oxford County are Maine's state PVI bellwether counties. Of the three, Hancock trended least, but had the highest PVI - but Oxford's trend was minor and even Sagahadoc's trend was only moderate compared to the state. National PVI: () Maine's D+5 tilt moves two statewide Republican-leaning counties into national PVI bellwether range - neighboring Penobscot (Bangor) and Somerset Counties. Penobscott is slightly closer to the nationwide mean at R+0.77. Title: Maryland PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:20:22 PM Maryland
State PVI: () Maryland has no state PVI bellwether counties. As you can see from the map, it is very polarized. National PVI: () Maryland has no national PVI bellwether counties, either. Title: Massachusetts County PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:20:59 PM Massachusetts
State PVI: () Massachusetts has one state bellwether county, Hampden (Springfield). This may be academic because, IIRC, Massachusetts results are often reported by town, and voting in Hampden County is polarized between the county's cities and suburbs. National PVI: () Despite Massachusetts' D+10 tilt, its (relatively) most Republican county, Boston-suburban Plymouth, is a nationwide PVI bellwether. It's still slighty (D+0.17) more Democratic than the national average, making Massachusetts a clean D+ PVI county sweep. Title: Michigan County PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:21:33 PM Michigan
State PVI: () Michigan's state PVI bellwethers run the gamut from Detroit-suburban Oakland to the Tri-Cities' Saginaw to rural Isabella (Mount Pleasant) and Goegebic County in the extreme western part of the Upper Peninsula. Isabella County is home to Central Michigan University and the Isabella Indian Reservation. Of the four counties, Oakland trended the least from 2008 to 2012 but also had the largest relative PVI. National PVI: () D+4 Michigan has 6 national PVI bellwether counties, ranging from Detroit-suburban Macomb County, to Eaton County, which contains some Lansing suburbs, to the more rural Shiawassee County (Owosso), in between Lansing and Flint. Two south Michigan counties, Calhoun (Battle Creek) and Van Buren also fit the bill, along with Menominee County in the Upper Peninsula. Of the 6 counties, Macomb and Shiawassee trended least. It's quite possible that Oakland County will be the best state bellwether while neighboring Macomb County will be the best national bellwether in Michigan for the 2016 election. Title: Minnesota PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:21:56 PM Minnesota
State PVI: () Minnesota has 5 state PVI bellwether counties. In the north, neighboring Beltrami (Bemidji) and Koochiching (International Falls) Counties are only slightly Democratic-leaning. Nicollet (North Mankato) and Rice (Faribault) in the south are similarly situated. Rural Fillmore County in Minnesota's southeast corner is slightly more Republican than average. Of the 5, Nicollet trended the least relative to the state from 2008 to 2012. () D+2 Minnesota has 4 national PVI bellwethers. They range from Dakota County (Eagan/Apple Valley/Burnsville) in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs to rural Houston, Chippewa and Traverse Counties. Of the four, Dakota and Chippewa trended the least relative to the U.S. over the past two cycles. Title: Mississippi PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:22:27 PM Mississippi
State PVI: () Polarized Mississippi has 5 state bellwether counties. The largest two are Forrest (Hattiesburg), home to the University of Southern Mississippi, and Lafayette (Oxford), which is home to the University of Mississippi. The other three are fairly rural - Attala (Kosciusko), Scott and Amite Counties. Of the 5, Attala and Forrest trended the least. National PVI: () Panola and Pike (McComb) Counties are Mississippi's national PVI bellwethers. Neither are particularly good ones, as they were both more than 2 points more Democratic than the national average in 2012. Their relative Republicaness in 2008 is what made them bellwethers after averaging. Title: Missouri PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:23:05 PM Missouri
State PVI: () Missouri has 4 state PVI bellwether counties - St. Louis south suburban Jefferson, Kansas City north suburban Clay, Buchanan (St. Joseph), the historic starting point of the Pony Express, and rural Iron Counties. Of the four, Clay and Buchanan trended the least from 2008 to 2012. Part of Kansas City is in Clay County. Unlike in Jackson County, that portion of KC's results are reported by the SoS with Clay County. The Jackson County part of KC reports its results separately to the SoS, and the Jackson County suburbs report separately. Suburban Jackson County is also a state PVI bellwether - though it is not shown separately on the map. National PVI: () Missouri has only 1 national PVI bellwether county - Ste. Genevieve, south of St. Louis along the Mississippi River. It's not a terribly good bellwether, though - it owes its bellwether status to being about 3.5 points more Democratic than the country in 2008 and about 3.5 points more Republican than the country in 2012. Title: Montana PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:24:06 PM Montana
State PVI: () Montana's 2 state PVI bellwether counties are large geographically but fairly rural. Park County (Livingston) includes the northern fringes of Yellowstone National Park. L-shaped Rosebud County includes as very small portion of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation. Perhaps because of that, Park is a more reliable state bellwether than Rosebud, trending much less over the past two cycles. National PVI: () R+7 Montana has no national PVI bellwether counties. As you can see, the state is somewhat polarized, with many deep (Atlas) blue counties in the flatter ranchlands of eastern Montana. Title: Nebraska PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:24:29 PM Nebraska
State PVI: () Sarpy County, home of Omaha's sy outh suburbs, is by far the largest of Nebraska's 4 state PVI bellwether counties. Accompanying Sarpy on the state PVI bellwether list are Dodge County (Fremont), Otoe County (Nebraska City) and very rural Burt County. Of the four counties, Sarpy and Otoe were the leas trendy over the past two cycles - but none are terribly trendy compared to the state. National PVI: () R+12 Nebraska has no national PVI bellwether counties. Only Thurston County has a D+PVI. The Winnebago Indian Reservation is coterminous with it. Title: Nevada PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:24:55 PM Nevada
State PVI: () As Washoe County goes, so goes Nevada. It has been trending Republican compared to the rest of the state over the past two cycles, though. Whether it will maintain its PVI bellwether status after the 2016 election remains to be seen, especially with Trump on the ballot. National PVI: () D+2 Nevada has no national PVI bellwether counties. Washoe County at D+1.35 comes closest. Title: New Hampshire County PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:25:19 PM New Hampshire
State PVI: () New Hampshire has no state PVI bellwether counties. This is largely academic on election day, though, since New Hampshire results are generally reported by town. Note how much more Democratic the counties along the Connecticut River valley are than the rest of the state. National PVI: () New Hampshire has no national PVI bellwether counties. In fact, New Hampshire's national PVI map looks a lot like the state PVI map because the state is only D+1. Title: New Jersey PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:25:43 PM New Jersey
State PVI: () New Jersey has two state PVI bellwether counties, Atlantic, home of the gambling mecca of Atlantic City, and Burlington County, which includes some of Philadelphia's New Jersey suburbs like Cinnaminson and Willingboro. Of the two, Atlantic trended slightly less than Burlington over the past 2 cycles. Donald Trump might underperform in Atlantic County this cycle, though, due to his failed Atlantic City casino ventures. National PVI: () Somerset County in Central Jersey was a national PVI bellwether over the past two cycles. It trended slightly more Democratic than the rest of the country from 2008 to 2012, though. Title: New Mexico PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:26:07 PM New Mexico
State PVI: () New Mexico has no state PVI bellwether counties. Dona Ana and Sandoval come closest, with PVIs of about D+1.8 and R+1.9, respectively. National PVI: () New Mexico's national D+4 shift causes four counties to move into national PVI territory: Colfax (Raton), Los Alamos, home of the national laboratory of the same name, Valencia, which includes part of an Indian Reservation and Albuquerque's southern exurbs, and Hidalgo (Lordsburg) in New Mexico's southwestern corner. Of the four, Valencia and Los Alamos trended least compared to the national average. It is not clear whether Los Alamos County will continue to be a be national bellwether because of its very high percentage of college educated residents. Title: New York PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:26:54 PM New York
State PVI: () New York has one state PVI bellwether - NYC suburban Westchester County. Unfortunately for potential prognosticators, it tends to report later than the rest of the state and is fairly diverse, making early returns unreliable. Only two counties outside of New York City are relatively more Democratic than the state - Albany, home to the state capital, and Tompkins, home to Cornell University. National PVI: () Despite its D+11 lean, New York has 7 national PVI bellwether counties. These range from NYC suburban Suffolk, Rockland and Orange to Binghamton's Broome County to snowy Oswego County on Lake Ontario to Seneca County, the birthplace of the women's rights movement and Otsego County (Oneonta), home to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. Of the 7, Seneca and Rockland were the most trendy compared to the rest of the country. The others were pretty spot on in predicting the national margin in both election years. Title: North Carolina PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:27:19 PM North Carolina
State PVI: () North Carolina has 7 counties that voted, on average, within 1 percent on either side of the 2008 and 2012 state presidential election result. Most are mid-sized counties. Nash County (Rocky Mount) cast the most total votes of the 7 in 2012, followed by Franklin (Louisburg), Lenoir (Kinston) and Watauga (Boone). Watauga County is home to Appalachian State University. Caswell, Chowan and tiny Hyde Counties round out the 7 state PVI bellwethers. Of the 7 counties, Hyde, Chowan and Franklin trended the least from 2008 to 2012 relative to the state. National PVI: () North Carolina's national R+3 tilt makes 5 slightly Democratic state PVI counties national PVI bellwethers. These counties are Wilson (Wilson), Chatham and Granville (Oxford) in the Raleigh-Durham area, and Martin and Gates in the Tidewater region. Chatham and Granville trended the least of the 5 PVI bellwether counties. Title: North Dakota PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:27:44 PM North Dakota
State PVI: () North Dakota has two state PVI bellwether counties, both rural counties in the northeast corner of the state - Pembina and Cavalier. From the map, you can see that with the exception of Sioux County (which is on the Standing Rock Indian Reservation) and Mountrail County (which is partially on the Fort Berthold Indian Agency), most of the D+ state PVI counties are in the eastern part of the state. National PVI: () No North Dakota counties are national PVI bellwethers in this R+10 state. Title: Ohio PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:28:11 PM Ohio
State PVI: () Ohio has 4 state PVI bellwether counties - Montgomery County (Dayton), Stark County (Canton), and Sandusky (Fremont) and Ottawa (Port Clinton) counties near Toledo. Montgomery County had the least trend of the 4 counties relative to the rest of the state. National PVI: () The national PVI map doesn't shift much from the state PVI map in R+1 Ohio. Montgomery, Sandusky and Ottawa Counties are also national PVI bellwethers. They are joined by Hamilton County (Cincinnati), Cleveland-exurban Portage County, home to Kent and its state university, and Toledo-area Wood County, home to Bowling Green and its state university. Of the 6 Ohio national PVI bellwethers, Hamilton had the biggest trend, trending Democratic compared to the rest of the country from 2008 to 2012. The other 5 had smaller trends in various directions. Portage trended the absolute least of the 6 counties. Title: Oklahoma PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:29:01 PM Oklahoma
State PVI: () Oklahoma has 3 state PVI bellwether counties, all fairly rural - Craig (Vinita), Hughes and Seminole (Seminole) Counties. Craig County trended the least versus the state of the three. National PVI: () R+19 Oklahoma has no national PVI bellwether counties. In fact, it has no county with a national PVI less than R+9. It is as Atlas blue as Atlas blue states come. Title: Oregon PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:29:28 PM Oregon
State PVI: () Oregon has no state PVI bellwether counties. It is a pretty polarized state. National PVI: () Portland-suburban Clackamas County is a national PVI bellwether. It is not a particularly good one, owing its D+0.77 status to a slight Republican trend compared to the rest of the country from 2008 to 2012. Plus, Oregon's vote-by-mail system sometimes leads to misleading early results that don't predict the final margin. Title: Pennsylvania PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:29:50 PM Pennsylvania
State PVI: () There are 4 Pennsylviana state PVI bellwether counties - Northampton (Bethlehem/Easton) in the Allentown area, Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre region, Dauphin (Harrisburg) in the capital region, and Centre (State College), home to the main campus of Penn State University. Of the four, Luzerne and Dauphin trended least compared to the rest of the state. It will be interesting to see if Luzerne County will continue its bellwether status with Donald Trump on the ballot. National PVI: () Because Pennsylvania is only a D+1 state, the national PVI map looks a lot like the state PVI map. Luzerne, Centre and Dauphin Counties are also national PVI bellwethers. They are joined by Philadelphia-suburban Bucks, Berks and Chester Counties. Bucks, Berks and Chester all trended moderately Republican from 2008 to 2012, and may not be the best bellwethers, especially in this election. Luzerne and Dauphin Counties trended the least of the 6, just as they did among the state PVI bellwethers. Title: Rhode Island PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:30:17 PM Rhode Island
State PVI: () Rhode Island only has 5 counties. Not surprisingly, none are state PVI bellwethers - but Bristol County comes close at R+1.39. In fact, the state is pretty homogeneous - state PVIs only range from Providence's D+3.49 to Kent's R+5.12. National PVI: () Rhode Island is a D+11 state. All counties have a D+ national PVI. None are national PVI bellwethers. Title: South Carolina PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:30:59 PM South Carolina
State PVI: () Union County (Union) is South Carolina's sole state PVI bellwether county. It's not a particularly good one - it trended Democratic compared to the rest of the state from 2008 to 2012. National PVI: () R+8 South Carolina has 3 national PVI bellwether counties: Charleston, home to the city of Charleston and many of its suburbs, rural Calhoun County, south of Columbia, and even more rural McCormick County on the Georgia border. Of the three, McCormick trended least relative to the country over the past two cycles. Title: South Dakota PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:31:23 PM South Dakota
State PVI: () Four South Dakota counties are relatively decent bellwethers for the state. Codington (Watertown) is the largest. Part of the Sisseton Indian Reservation is inside the county, but it doesn't appear to be heavily populated. Beadle (Huron) is next largest - and home to the South Dakota State Fair. More rural Charles Mix and Aurora Counties are also on the list. The Yankton Indian Reservation comprises the southern half of Charles Mix County. Of the four, Aurora and Beadle trended least compared to the rest of the state, but not by much. National PVI: () R+9 South Dakota has no national PVI bellwether counties. With the exception of Clay County (Vermillion), home to the University of South Dakota, most of the D+ Atlas red counties are on Indian Reservations. Note that Shannon County has recently been renamed Oglala Lakota County. Title: Tennessee PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:31:49 PM Tennessee
State PVI: () Two rural Tennessee counties are PVI bellwethers - Grundy (Tracy City) and Overton (Livingston). Grundy County trended much less than Overton compared to the state over the past two cycles. National PVI: () Only one Tennessee county makes the national PVI bellwether cut - Hardeman County (Bolivar) in the western part of the state. It had a moderate Democratic trend compared to the country. Note otherwise how Atlas blue most of the counties are in this R+12 state. Only 4 counties have D+ national PVIs, including two of the largest, Shelby (Memphis) and Davidson (Nashville). Title: Texas PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:32:27 PM Texas
State PVI: () Texas has 5 state PVI bellwether counties. Tarrant (Fort Worth and suburbs) is by far the largest of the five - and the least trending. The second-largest bellwether county, Bell (Temple-Killeen), is home to the Fort Hood army base. The other three are much smaller - Bastrop County (Bastrop) near Austin, Waller County, near Houston, home to Prairie View A&M, a historically black college, and Atascosa County, near San Antonio. Exurban sprawl may eventually reach those three counties over the next few decades. National PVI: () Three Texas counties are national PVI bellwethers - Bexar County (San Antonio) is by far the largest, followed by Val Verde County (Del Rio), a Mexican border county that is home to Laughlin Air Force Base, and Kleberg County (Kingsville). Of the three, Val Verde trended least, but it has a relatively high PVI of D+0.95. Title: Utah PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:32:50 PM Utah
State PVI: () Weber County (Ogden) is Utah's sole state PVI bellwether county. It has a relatively high state PVI of +0.91, though, and a moderate trend. National PVI: () The ski county of Summit (Park City) is Utah's national PVI bellwether county. It's a terrible bellwether, though, with a huge Republican trend compared to the country from 2008 to 2012 - which is not so surprising with Romney on the 2012 ballot in his R+22 home state. Every Utah county has an R+ PVI. Title: Vermont County PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:33:11 PM Vermont
State PVI: () Vermont has no state PVI bellwether counties. This may be academic, anyway, since results are generally reported by town. National PVI: () Not surprisingly, D+16 Vermont has no national PVI bellwether counties, either. All counties have D+ Atlas red PVIs. Title: Virginia PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:33:34 PM Virginia
State PVI: () Two Virginia counties and three independent cities are state PVI bellwethers. Suburban Washington D.C. Loudoun County is by far the largest of the 5, and had the least trend. Rural Nelson County, in between Charlottesville and Lynchburg in central Virginia, is the other county on the list. The three independent cities are west-central Staunton, southwestern Radford and northern Virginia's Winchester. Winchester city also only had a slight trend; the trend in the other three municipalities was moderate. National PVI: () Because Virginia's PVI is even, Loudoun County, Nelson County and Radford city are also national PVI bellwethers. Again, Loudoun County trended the least of the three. Note that my state maps and dataset include both Bedford County and Bedford city. Bedford city was dissolved at some point after the 2012 election. The combined city and county have a state and national PVI of R+22. (Bedford City was R+8; Bedford County was R+23). Title: Washington PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:33:59 PM Washington
State PVI: () Despite being a fairly polarized state, three Washington counties qualify as state PVI bellwethers - Snohomosh (Everett/Lynwood/Edmonds), which contains Seattle's northern suburbs, Whatcom (Bellingham), on the Canadian border, and Grays Harbor (Aberdeen) on the Pacific coast. All three had minor trends, with Snohomish trending least but having the highest state PVI. Whatcom's state PVI was almost dead even. National PVI: () Island County (Oak Harbor), home to the Whidbey Island Naval Air Station, is a good national PVI bellwether. It has a R+0.1 PVI and only had a relatively minor trend compared to the rest of the nation from 2008 to 2012. Title: West Virginia PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:34:29 PM West Virginia
State PVI: () West Virginia has 10 state PVI bellwether counties to choose from. These range from Hancock (Weirton) in the north to Greenbrier (White Sulfur Springs) in the south, and counties in between, including Harrison (Clarksburg), Mason (Point Pleasant) and Randolph (Elkins). They also include the more rural counties of Nicholas, Lincoln, Summers, Pocahontas and Calhoun. Of the 10, Greenbrier, Randolph, Mason and Pocahontas trended least. National PVI: () R+13 West Virginia has no national PVI bellwether counties - or national D+ Atlas red counties. Title: Wisconsin PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:34:50 PM Wisconsin
State PVI: () Wisconsin's 4 state PVI counties range from Door County (Sturgeon Bay) - vacationland on Lake Michigan - to Dunn (Menomonie) and Buffalo Counties in the west to Forest County in northern Wisconsin. All four had moderate trends relative to the state over the past two cycles. National PVI: () D+2 Wisconsin has 10 national PVI bellwether counties - though most showed large Republican trends from 2008 to 2012 and aren't good national margin predictors. The ill-fitting counties are Brown (Green Bay), Chippewa (Chippewa Falls), Iron, Lincoln (Merrill), Oneida (Rhinelander), Pierce, Price and Wood (Wisconsin Rapids/Marshfield). The best fit is Racine, home to some of Milwaukee's southern suburbs. It has a PVI of R+0.06, and had a very small swing relative to the country over the past two cycles. Title: Wyoming PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:35:12 PM Wyoming
State PVI: () Wyoming has one state PVI bellwether county - Natrona (Casper). It has a R+0.55 state PVI and its trend was small to moderate National PVI: () R+22 Wyoming has no national PVI bellwether counties. It does, however, have a D+ national PVI county, Teton (Jackson), which is home to Grand Teton and part of Yellowstone National Parks. Title: Nationwide PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:35:34 PM CONUS
State PVI: () National PVI: () Title: Connecticut Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:35:56 PM Connecticut Towns
State PVI: () Connecticut has 11 state PVI bellwether towns. They range from Danbury in the western part of the state to Hartford-suburban South Windsor and Bristol (home of ESPN), to New Haven-suburban Woodbridge, Branford and Guilford to five towns in the eastern part of the state - Essex, Middlesex County and East Lyme, Groton and Stonington, New London County and Hampton, Windham County. 5 of the 11 state PVI bellwether counties are directly on the Long Island Sound shore. Of the 11, East Lyme, Stonington, Branford, Guilford, Woodbridge and Bristol trended the least compared to the state over the past two cycles. In general, as you can see from the map, towns in and around the Naugatuck Valley and, to a lesser extent, in the eastern part of the state tend to be relatively more Republican than the rest. National PVI: () There are 22 national PVI bellwether towns in Connecticut. They range from Danbury-suburban Bethel in Fairfield County, to New Milford, Warren and Barkhamsted, Litchfield County, to Hartford County's East Granby, Berlin and Southington, to Cheshire, Naugatuck, Bethany, North Haven and Madison, New Haven County. In eastern Connecticut, national PVI bellwether towns include Killingworth and Haddam, Middlesex County, Salem, Bozrah, Sprague, North Stonington and Ledyard, New London County, Brooklyn and Pomfret, Windham County and Bolton, Tolland County. The Foxwoods casino is in Ledyard. Of the 22, Bethel, Bozrah, Bethany and Pomfret had PVIs of less than 0.5 and trended least compared to the country over the past two cycles. Title: Massachusetts Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:36:17 PM Massachusetts Towns
State PVI: () The overall Massachusetts Town PVI Map shows the general Massachusetts trend - the Berkshires, parts of MetroWest Boston and towns in and around Boston, as well as Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and the larger old mill towns are generally more Democratic than the rest of the state. But the labels make the map hard to read and obscure some of the bellwether towns. As always, you can right click and select "View Image" to see a larger map, but here is a map labelled with just the 16 Massachusetts PVI bellwether towns. (Some county names are in ovals): () The 16 states that voted most in line with the state average over the past two elections are throughout the state. Four are suburbs of New Bedford or Fall River in Bristol County: Dartmouth, Fairhaven, Somerset and Westport. Another 5 are in suburban Boston counties: Milton, Norfolk County, Wellsely, Carlisle and (the unlabelled) Boxborough, Middlesex County, and Swampscott, Essex County. Four are in the Pioneer Valley near Springfield: Chicopee, Hampden County and Westhampton, South Hadley and Belchertown, Hampton County. The others are Harvard, Worcester County, Hancock, Berkshire County and tiny Gosnold, Dukes County, the smallest town in the state. Of the 16, Dartmouth, Fairhaven, Milton, Somerset and South Hadley trended least from 2008 to 2012, compared to the state, but had PVI's greater than 0.5. No towns met both super PVI criteria. National PVI: () Again, this nationwide PVI town map probably has too many labels to pick out the nationwide PVI bellwether towns, so I've included a map that just labels the bellwethers below. Note how, in deep (Atlas) red Massachusetts, dark blue state PVI counties become light blue and light blue PVI counties become Atlas red on the national PVI map. () There are 38 nationwide PVI bellwether towns in Massachusetts - too many to name. They include 4 suburbs of Springfield, 4 Cape Cod towns, two suburbs of Lawrence and Lowell, near the New Hampshire state line, and 10 Worcester County towns. Six towns had PVIs of less than 0.5 and minor trends: Blackstone, Chester, Grafton, New Braintree, Plymouth and Webster. Worcester County's Blackstone, in particular, sticks out with a PVI of D+0.41 and a virtually non-existent trend. Title: New Hampshire Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:37:06 PM New Hampshire Towns
State PVI: () Because New Hampshire is long and narrow, a map labeling all towns is way too busy. Thus, the above map only labeled the state PVI bellwether towns. Note that towns in white reported no results. 19 New Hampshire towns are state PVI bellwethers. These towns range from the shore town of Rye and Greenland in Rockingham County, to Barrington, Rochester and Farmington, Strafford County to Francestown and Wilton, Hillsborough County, Allenstown, Pembroke and Northfield, Merrimack County, Tilton, Belknap County, and Shelburne and Lancaster in northern Coos County. They also include Lyman, Landaff and Grafton, Grafton County, Newport, Sullivan County and Gilsum and Richmond, Cheshire County, along the Connecticut River. Of the 19, Rochester, Barrington and Wilton had PVIs of less than 0.5 points and trended the least. National PVI: () Because New Hampshire is a D+1 state, 9 state PVI bellwether towns are also national PVI bellwether towns: Shelburne, Rye, Grafton, Lyman, Rochester, Farmington, Tilton, Allenstown and Wilton. They are joined by 11 other national PVI bellwethers: Stratham, Epping, Ashland, Strafford, New Hampton, Goshen, Bow, Newbury, Bennington, Lyndborough and Temple. Of the 20 national PVI bellwethers, 5 stand out as having PVIs of less than 0.5 points and below-average trends: Epping, Grafton, Farmington, Bow and Temple. To make up for not labeling every town, a map labeling every town that cast 2,500 or more votes in 2012 is below: () Title: Rhode Island Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:37:27 PM Rhode Island Towns
State PVI: () Little Rhode Island has a lot fewer towns than the other New England states. Three of Rhode Island's 39 towns qualify as state PVI bellwethers - Bristol and Warren in Bristol County, and North Providence in Providence County. Of the three, Bristol had the smallest PVI and trend. Note that Rhode Island suburbs and rural areas are relatively more Republican than most cities. National PVI: () Rhode Island also has three national PVI bellwether towns: Foster, Smithfield and North Smithfield, all in Providence County. Of the three, North Smithfield had the smallest PVI and trend. Note how much Atlas redder the national PVI map is than the state PVI map. Title: Vermont Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:38:33 PM Vermont Towns
State PVI: () Again, because Vermont is long and narrow, I've only labeled the bellwether towns. Also, towns colored white reported no results. There are 20 Vermont PVI bellwether towns: Bethel, Brookline, Cabot, Hardwick, Marshfield and Sudbury with D+ PVIs less than 1 and Brandon, Chester, Eden, Fletcher, Hancock, Randolph, Shoreham, St. Albans City, Stockbridge, Tunbridge, Waterville, West Fairlee, West Windsor and Wilmington with R+ PVIs less than 1. Of the 20, 5 had PVIs less than 0.5 and minor trends: St. Albans City, Franklin County, Tunbridge, Orange County, West Fairlee, Orange County, West Windsor, Windsor County, and Wilmington, Windham County. National PVI: () Because Vermont is a D+16 state, it has only 7 national PVI bellwether towns: Lemington and Maidstone, Essex County, Waterford and Groton, Caledonia County, Addison, Addison County, Wells, Rutland County, and Vernon, Windham County. None are particularly good bellwethers, though. Waterford is the only one with a small trend, but has a relatively high PVI of D+0.75. Vermont is so Atlas red that only 7 towns have R+ PVIs: Addison, Lemington, Morgan, Norton, Orange, Searsburg and Stratton. Mitt Romney only won two towns - Morgan and Maidstone. Like for New Hampshire, a map showing towns that cast more than 2,500 2012 votes is below: () Title: Maine Town Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:38:56 PM **Experimental**
Note: Trying to figure out PVIs for Maine towns is a bit more difficult than the rest of New England. Unincorporated Maine townships sometimes report results separately, and at other times with the nearest larger incorporated town. As such, I did not calculate PVIs for townships that only reported results for one cycle. Also, in order to show unincorporated townships, I am using a shapefile from the State of Maine. I was able to translate most of the results into that shapefile's list of town names, but am missing about 2000 votes statewide in the 2008 election. So caveat emptor on these maps. State PVI: Because even bellwether-only PVI maps are very busy in Maine, I'm posting two state PVI maps - one with no labels at all and one with most of the bellwethers and counties labeled (county labels are in ovals): () () Maine has 35 state PVI bellwether towns - far too many to name here. Limiting the analysis to super bellwethers - those towns with state PVIs of less than 0.5 and minor trends - leaves 4 super state two-party margin predictors: Portland-suburban Gorham, Cumberland County, Harpswell, Cumberland County (south of Brunswick on the coast), Surry, Hancock County, and Eliot, York County (on the New Hampshire border). National PVI: Again, there are two maps: () () Maine has a whopping 51 national PVI bellwether towns. As you can see from the map, a good number of them are towns along the York/Cumberland County and Oxford County border, ranging from Limington to Summer. Nevertheless, all these towns are too numerous to name. Limiting the analysis to super bellwethers - those towns with state PVIs of less than 0.5 and minor trends from 2008 to 2012 - leaves 10 super national PVI bellwethers: Durham and Sabattus (just east of Lewiston), Androscoggin County, Standish, Cumberland County (just north of state PVI super bellwether Gorham in the Portland area) Belgrade and Monmouth in Kennebec County, Wiscasset, Lincoln County, Lovell and Porter, Oxford County, Alton, Penobscot County, and The Forks Plantation, Somerset County. Like for New Hampshire and Vermont, below is a map of Maine towns that cast more than 2,500 votes in 2012: () Title: ME-02 PVI Map Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:39:46 PM **Experimental**
Because it may be competitive in 2016, I've calculated the PVIs for ME-02 (using the 2012 boundaries for 2008 data). Like with the main Maine maps, I've only calculated PVIs for towns with data from both cycles. ME-02 PVI () ME-02 has 34 towns that voted within one point of the two-cycle average of the CD the past two cycles. They range from Sweden to Poland to Moscow, and Caribou, Presque Isle and Fort Fairfield, and many towns in between. The others are too numerous to name, but most are on the map (except where labels would collide). Of the 34, only 3 had PVIs of less than 0.5 and a slight trend from 2008 to 2012 - Moscow, Somerset County, Avon, Franklin County, and Searsport, Waldo County. These towns could the best predictors of the ME-02 tally on election night. Title: Michigan Town Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:40:09 PM **Experimental**
Here are some Michigan town PVI maps. Note that the Census Bureau's County Subdivision shapefile divides cities that span county into two or more parts. Usually, Michigan reports results for those cities by county, but I found a few instances where they did not. Those towns are white on the map. Also, I had no 2012 results for Grosse Pointe Township. I'm not sure if it dissolved between 2008 and 2012. There are three Michigan maps for each PVI type: one of the Lower Peninsula "mitt", one of the Upper Peninsula, and a Southeast Michigan close-up, since a good portion of the state's population lives there. Michigan PVI: LP: () SE: () UP: () 62 Michigan towns qualify as Michigan PVI bellwethers. These range from Detroit-suburban Clinton, Clawson and Allen Park to Sugar Island on the U.P. Only 3 of these 62 qualify as super-bellwethers with a PVI of less than 0.5 and a minor trend: Marine City, St. Clair County, Crystal Township, Oceana County, and Plainwell, Allegan County. Marine City is not labeled and in white on the map because its PVI is so low (< D+0.01) that my mapping software rounded its PVI to 0. It is the white town on the upper far right of the Southeast Michigan map. National PVI: LP: () SE: () UP: () Michigan has 107 national PVI bellwether towns. Some, like Traverse City, are city fragments in only one county. In Traverse City's case, it's the less-populated part of the city in Leelanau County. Some of the more well-known national PVI bellwethers include the Grand Rapids suburb of Kentwood, Detroit-suburban Sterling Heights, and Escanaba, Ironwood and Sault Ste. Marie in the U.P. 25 of these 107 towns qualify as super national PVI bellwethers: Crystal Lake, Bedford, Potterville, Branch, St. Ignace, Monroe, Hastings, Sault Ste. Marie, Lyndon, Humboldt, St. Charles, Fraser, St. Clair Shores, Sterling Heights, New Haven, Perry, Sciota, Venice, Belvidere, Cheshire, Clayton, Flushing city, Flushing Township, Clement and Gibraltar. Title: New Jersey Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:40:32 PM New Jersey Towns
Like Michigan, I'm posting two New Jersey town maps, one statewide and one North Jersey closeup. State PVI: State: () North Jersey: () New Jersey has 23 state PVI bellwether towns. In North Jersey, these towns include Elmwood Park, Bergen County, Millburn, Essex County, Secaucus, Hudson County, Roselle Park, Union County and Phillipsburg, Warren County. They also include Jamesburg and South River, Middlesex County, Bradley Beach and Lake Como, Monmouth County and South Bound Brook, Somerset County in Central Jersey. Philadelphia-suburban Bordentown, Delanco, Delran and Lumberton, Burlington County, Haddonfield, Laurel Springs and Stratford, Camden County and Monroe, West Deptford and Westville, Gloucester County make the list, along with South Jersey's Wildwood, Cape May County, Commercial Township, Cumberland County and Carneys Point, Salem County. Only one of these 23 towns qualify as a super bellwether - Phillipsburg, Warren County, across the Delaware River from Easton, Pennsylvania. National PVI: State: () National: () 26 New Jersey towns are national PVI bellwethers, many in North Jersey. In North Jersey, these towns are Demarest, Lyndhurst, North Arlington, Ridgewood and River Edge, Bergen County, Livingston, Essex County, Califon, Hunterdon County, Boonton and Parsippany-Troy Hills, Morris County, Woodland Park (nee West Paterson), Passaic County and Summit and Westfield, Union County. Parsippany-Troy Hills' PVI is almost exactly even, turning it white on the map, but the township had a moderate trend from 2008 to 2012, making its PVI misleadingly low. In Central Jersey, Cranbury and Old Bridge, Middlesex County and Matawan and Tinton Falls, Monmouth County make the national PVI bellwether list. Philadelphia-suburban Berlin, Camden County and Elk Township, Franklin Township and Pitman, Gloucester County are on the list, along with 6 South Jersey towns: Somers Point and Ventnor City, Atlantic County, Cape May Point, Cape May County, Deerfield and Greenwich, Cumberland County and Woodstown, Salem County. Berlin, Camden County and Cranbury, Middlesex County are the only two super bellwethers of the 26. Title: Wisconsin Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 07:41:35 PM Wisconsin Towns
Wisconsin has over 1,900 towns, cities and villages. Some are double counted because the census database and (generally) the Wisconsin election results break up cities and villages that cross county lines. Because of the sheer number of municipalities, the state has over 100 state and national PVI bellwether towns. Labels clutter up the map, so I posted maps of the state with and without bellwethers. State PVI: Bellwethers Labeled: () No Labels: () Wisconsin has 142 state PVI bellwether towns or town fragments - far too many to name. What's noticeable is the lack of bellwethers in the Milwaukee metropolitan area, due to its polarization. Only Fox Point, Whitefish Bay and South Milwaukee, Milwaukee County qualify. Other notable state PVI bellwether towns include the city of Manitowoc in the county of the same name, the town (not the city) of Beloit, Rock County, and Middleton and Bristol, Dane County, near Madison. Note that there's at least one labeling error - Bloomfield village is not a bellwether - it likely didn't exist in 2008, making its calculated PVI zero, which fools the mapping software. The 142 state PVI bellwethers can be whittled down to 18 super bellwethers with a PVI of less than 0.5 and a minor trend from 2008 to 2012 compared to the state. In central and northern Wisconsin, they are the cities of of Alma, Buffalo County, Rice Lake, Barron County, River Falls, St. Croix County, and Waupaca in the county of the same name, the towns of Highland, Douglas County, Pine Lake, Oneida County, Oulu, Bayfield Couny, and Somo, Lincoln County and Exeland village, Sawyer County. In Southeast Wisconsin, Somers town, Kenosha County and Fox Point village, Milwaukee County qualify. The Madison-area super bellwethers are the towns of Lowville, Columbia County, Akan, Richland County, and Bristol, Dane County. The city of Manitowoc qualifies, as do West Salem village and Shelby town, La Crosse County, and the city of Tomah, Monroe County in the La Crosse area. I think the Census bureau has Somers town and Somers village, Kenosha County mislabeled on their maps. National PVI: Bellwethers Labeled: () No Labels: () Wisconsin has 159 national PVI towns or town fragments - again, far too many to name. The most prominent of them are West Allis and Wauwatosa, Milwaukee County, Dane and Vienna, Dane County and North Fond du Lac, Fond du Lac County. Only 17 super bellwethers remain after further filtering the results. The Madison area is heavily represented, with the towns of Fort Winnebago and Pacific, Columbia County, Jordan, Green County, Crystal Lake, Marquette County, Dayton, Richland County and Bradley, Lincoln County qualifying, along with the town of La Valle town and village of Rock Springs, Sauk County. Two Southeast Wisconsin towns are super bellwethers - the city of West Allis, Milwaukee County, and Darien village, Walworth County. Eau Claire-area towns Otter Creek and Tainter, Dunn County make the list, as do La Crosse-area Burns town, La Crosse County, Clifton town, Monroe County, and Chaseburg village, Vernon County. Rounding out the national super bellwethers are Sturgeon Bay town, Door County and Ripon city, Fond du Lac County, the birthplace of the Republican party. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on August 28, 2016, 11:14:51 PM As you can tell, this is still a work in progress. I have all the maps up, and #analysis for the first 10 states, Alabama-Georgia. That's it for tonight. The links to those states on the first page now work.
I'm going to try to finish the county map #analysis over the next two days or so, and then will work on town maps if anyone is interested. Because I pulled the data from literally 100 different sources and pasted it into a huge spreadsheet, there could be errors. Please tell me if something looks wrong. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on August 29, 2016, 10:43:55 PM I finished the #analysis for Hawaii-Mississippi. I also edited the Maryland map because it didn't show results for Baltimore City (both Baltimore County and Baltimore City showed the Baltimore County results on the map).
I haven't fixed the nationwide or Carto.com maps to reflect the Baltimore City results yet - I will wait to see if there are more obvious errors before doing so. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Intell on August 30, 2016, 03:04:54 AM Great Job!
Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Nym90 on August 30, 2016, 11:53:44 AM Wow, what an incredible project! Thanks for all of your hard work.
Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Bismarck on August 30, 2016, 10:11:59 PM Wow, what an incredible project! Thanks for all of your hard work. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on August 30, 2016, 10:42:30 PM I finished the #analysis for Missouri-Rhode Island. There are only 11 states left to analyze, probably tomorrow. Note that I had to update the North Dakota state PVI map due to a technical reason - the mapping software rounded the state PVI number to two decimal places, which created some color mismatches.
If you're wondering how the 2012 PVI bellwethers (I think Cook techinically calls them 2014 PVIs, not 2012) compared to the 2008 PVI bellwethers, I did a similar project for states with Senate races in 2010. That old thread is available here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126829.0). Unfortunately, TinyPic ate some of the images. I still should have them on my computer somewhere and will try to replace the broken links with new maps eventually. That's one of the reasons why I'm trying to list all of the PVI bellwether counties in the text in this thread - in case the Atlas gallery eats these maps, too. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on August 31, 2016, 09:41:38 PM The analysis is now done for every state.
I need to update the nationwide map to reflect errors, decide what type of nationwide analysis I want (probably listing the best-fitting national PVI bellwethers - though I'm open to other ideas), and start adding town maps. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Vern on August 31, 2016, 10:03:38 PM Great job man!
Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on August 31, 2016, 10:05:36 PM Great job man! Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 01, 2016, 08:51:41 PM Here is a map of the 106 national PVI bellwether counties - i.e. counties with PVIs of D+1 to R+1. Due to label collision avoidance, not all counties may be labeled, but I think they are either labeled or shown:
() We can try to pick the best of these bellwether counties by limiting them to PVIs of D+0.5 to R+0.5 with a trend of a point or less from 2008 to 2012 relative to the country. This leaves us with 9 potential Super PVI Bellwether Counties. You can see them on this map: () These counties, in order of PVI, are:
Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Senator Cris on September 02, 2016, 02:58:58 PM Wow, what a great job!
Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 03, 2016, 10:38:52 PM I added town maps for Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. Some of the maps are very busy with the town labels. You can always get a larger map by right clicking on the map image and selecting "View Image".
I noticed a typo in the "official" 2012 Vermont results on the state's website: Andover supposedly cast only 1 vote in 2012 after casting 317 votes in 2008. Obviously, that didn't happen. Atlas has the 2012 votes cast as 59% Obama 37% Romney, with 315 total votes cast. I used that for the Vermont town map, backing into the Obama and Romney actual votes cast. If anyone has the actual Andover tally, please post it here or PM me. Fortunately, Andover is such a small part of Windsor County that it shouldn't affect the county results much. I haven't updated the Vermont county or nationwide maps. I will eventually update the CartoDB map with all of the recent changes, though. The next town map will likely be of Maine, if I can sort out the differences in the townships that reported in 2008 and 2012 and sideline those that didn't report results for both years. After that, I might do Michigan and maybe New Jersey, if I can reconcile their results. These states are less critical than the 5 New England states I posted tonight, since their results are usually reported by county, not town, on election night. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Nym90 on September 06, 2016, 03:39:09 PM I show Norton as having voted for Obama in 2012 while Maidstone and Morgan were the only towns won by Romney. Norton has the most Republican PVI though, considering both 2008 and 2012.
Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 06, 2016, 03:51:56 PM I show Norton as having voted for Obama in 2012 while Maidstone and Morgan were the only towns won by Romney. Norton has the most Republican PVI though, considering both 2008 and 2012. You are correct. I must have been reading the wrong column on my spreadsheet. Thanks! I fixed the text. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 06, 2016, 11:48:45 PM I added an experimental town map for Maine. As I noted in the text there:
Note: Trying to figure out PVIs for Maine towns is a bit more difficult than the rest of New England. Unincorporated Maine townships sometimes report results separately, and at other times with the nearest larger incorporated town. As such, I did not calculate PVIs for townships that only reported results for one cycle. Also, in order to show unincorporated townships, I am using a shapefile from the State of Maine. I was able to translate most of the results into that shapefile's list of town names, but am missing about 2000 votes statewide in the 2008 election. So caveat emptor on these maps. The maps generally look like I would expect for Maine, so while there are probably some errors and omissions, they're probably not numerous. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 07, 2016, 05:17:30 AM Good to have an updated version. The one from 2010 was beginning to show its age.
Also many of the images no longer work in that one. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 07, 2016, 11:37:12 AM Good to have an updated version. The one from 2010 was beginning to show its age. Also many of the images no longer work in that one. I fixed the images on the 2010 thread, so they should all work now. They are now hosted in the Atlas Gallery, so, in theory, they shouldn't break again. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 08, 2016, 09:50:27 PM I added a ME-02 Town PVI (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244550.msg5238453#msg5238453) map, showing that CD's bellwether for the CD vote. I also added a Town Maps for Michigan (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244550.msg5238456#msg5238456).
Michigan's map is also experimental. The census' County Subdivision shapefile cuts cities that span county borders apart. Some Michigan cities don't have results for both parts of some of those cities - though it is possible that nobody lives in there. I've run out of obvious states to do town maps for. New Jersey may be possible, because town data is available online (albeit in a crappy format). Are there any other states with publicly available town data? I have one more reserved post open after New Jersey. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 09, 2016, 06:58:09 PM New Jersey Town PVI Maps (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244550.msg5238457#msg5238457) are now up. I was able to reconcile all of the New Jersey town election data with the census shapefile map (except for federal votes not broken down by town). Thus, the New Jersey maps aren't experimental, like Maine, ME-02 and Michigan.
I'm almost out of states with readily available or reconcilable town data. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Indiana don't have easily found town data online; Ohio and Iowa break things down by precinct, but don't specify the town or municipality for each precinct. I think my next (and perhaps final) map will be of Wisconsin towns. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: cinyc on September 10, 2016, 03:01:02 PM Wisconsin Maps (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244550.msg5238459#msg5238459) are up, completing this project - for now. Like in Michigan, some Wisconsin municipalities cross county lines, and some have zero reported votes in some county parts.
I'd be happy to make close-up town maps for metro areas with or without labels, if anyone wants to see one. Title: Re: 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Post by: Heisenberg on September 12, 2016, 08:20:30 PM Great job, thank you very much!
Title: Minnesota Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on September 12, 2016, 11:39:26 PM Minnesota Town PVI Maps
I found one more state with town data: Minnesota. Note that to minimize data mismatches between vote results and shapefile town names, I used Minnesota's shapefile of 2010 MCDs instead of the census shapefiles. There are over 2,700 cities, townships and unorganized areas in that shapefile. Like for other states, cities that span counties are double-counted in this tally. Hassan Township was dissolved into the city of Rogers in between 2008 and 2012, but is on the map. Both it and Rogers' results are colored assuming a combined Hassan-Rogers tally for 2008. There are three maps for each PVI type - statewide with bellwether labels, statewide without labels, and one of the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area. Areas in white had no votes in 2008 and/or 2012. State PVI: () () () There are 141 Minnesota PVI bellwethers - far too many to name. Some of the more prominent ones include the main portion of the city of St. Cloud in Stearns County, the city of Rochester, home of the Mayo Clinic, North Mankato, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs of Edina, Eagan, Burnsville, Cottage Grove, Inver Grove Heights, White Bear Lake (both parts in Ramsey and Washington Counties), Shoreview and Spring Lake Park. 18 Minnesota towns qualify as super bellwethers, scattered throughout the state. In Southwestern Minnesota, they include the cities of Storden, Cottonwood County, Tracy, Lyon County, Slayton, Murray County, and Maynard, Chippewa County. They also include MSP-Suburban Eagan and Inver Grove Heights, Dakota County, the portion of Lake City in Wabasha County, St. Joseph, Stearns County, near St. Cloud, Skyline, Blue Earth County, near Mankato, Acton Township, Meeker County, the city of New London, Kandiyohi County, Clarissa, Todd County, Bricelyn, Faribault County, the city of Faribault, which is in Rice County, Onamia Township, Mille Lacs, County, Dalton City, Otter Tail County, Ball Bluff Township, Aitkin County and the Rainy Lake Unorganized territory, Koochiching County in extreme Northern Minnesota. National PVI: () () () Minnesota's PVI is only D+1.76. Thus, a handful of state PVI bellwether towns are also national PVI bellwether towns. There are 133 national PVI bellwether towns scattered throughout the state. Some of the more prominent ones include MSP-suburban Apple Valley, Woodbury, Plymouth, Shoreview, Gem Lake, Vadnals Heights, Coon Rapids and Anoka, and the Northern Minnesota city of Brainerd. Only 10 of these 133 minor civil divisions qualify as super bellwethers (with a PVI of less than 0.5 and a minor trend compared to the rest of the country). They include the aforementioned city of Brainerd, Crow Wing County and Balsam Township, Aitkin County, both in Northern Minnesota, the cities of Westbrook, Murray County, Brewster, Nobles County, and Russell, Lyon County, in Southwestern Minnesota, Hayward Township, Freeborn County (near Albert Lea), Oshawa Township, Nicollet County (near Mankato), Hanley Falls, Yellow Medicine County, and MSP-Area Oak Park Heights, Washington County and Gem Lake, Ramsey County. Title: Pennsylvania Town PVI Maps Post by: cinyc on October 11, 2016, 11:45:48 PM Pennsylvania Town PVI Maps
**Highly Experimental** I found some precinct-level data for Pennsylvania in the Harvard Election Results Archive, and was able to correlate the precincts with towns. Unfortunately, when the town data is aggregated to county data, some county results don't match Atlas or the official state tally. I don't know why (Missing Absentees? Faulty Data?) - so you should consider these maps highly experimental. When calculating state PVIs, I used the amalgamated total votes in the Harvard data, so compared to Atlas/Offical data, it could be slightly off. Anyway, here are the state PVI maps. I'm including insets of the Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Scranton-Wilkes-Barre Areas because most of the PVI Bellwethers are there. Since there already are 4 maps, I'll make a PVI Map with no labels only upon request. State PVI: () (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=16318) () () () 95 of Pennsylvania's over 2,500 townships, boroughs, cities and municipalities are state PVI bellwether towns. Many of those towns are in the Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton-Willkes-Barre and Erie suburbs. Only 9 of these 95 towns qualify as super bellwethers with PVIs of less than 0.5 and a low state trend from 2008 to 2012. Three are in the Pittsburgh suburbs: Monaca borough, Beaver County, Pulaski township, Beaver County and New Kensington city, Westmoreland County. Two are in Erie County: Girard township and Summit township. Two are in bellwether counties: West Pittston borough, Luzerne County, and Kulpmont borough, Northumberland County. Philadelphia-suburban Upper Providence township, Delaware County, and South Pymatuning township, Mercer County near Sharon, Pennsylvania and Youngstown, Ohio, round out the list. National PVI: () (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=16317) () () () 119 Pennsylvania towns are National PVI Bellwethers. Again, many are clustered in the Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Scranton-Wilkes-Barre suburbs. Of the 119 towns, 12 are super bellwethers. Three are in Southwestern Pennsylvania, near Pittsburgh: Baden borough, Beaver County, South Heights borough, Beaver County and Perryopolis borough, Fayette County. Two are in Western Pennsylvania near New Castle, Sharon and Youngstown, Ohio: South New Castle borough, Lawrence County and Hermitage city, Mercer County. Two are in the swing county of Northumberland in the Allentown-Bethlehem area: Mount Carmel township and Coal township. Three are in Central Pennsylvania, near Harrisburg: Shippensburg borough, Cumberland County, Port Carbon borough, Schuylkill County and Reilly township, Schuylkill County. Upper Gwynedd township, Montgomery County, near Philadelphia, and Elkland borough, Tioga County in North-Central Pennsylvania, round out the list. |