Talk Elections

Why is Florida Democratic Party so terrible?

The party has lost just about every winnable race possible.

This has been discussed many times on this forum.

But the short answer is basically this:

1) The only solidly reliable democratic voting bloc are black voters. Hispanics lean Democratic oftentimes, but they are not as monolithic as the black vote.
2) Whites, as in most Southern States, are hyper-republican. The racial polarization in voting in the South is real.
3) As in many states, Democrats are crammed into urban centers, which creates vote sinks. Plus the gerrymandering favors the Republicans. That in turn, weakens the Democratic bench.
4) Perhaps more so then others, democratic leaning groups turn out less in midterm years in Florida. That is why Democrats lost two winnable governor elections in 2010 and 2014. The last time Democrats won a statewide executive office was in 2006, Alex Sink for Chief Financial Officer.  Very Democratic year.

That all being said, I see no reason that the Republican dominance in Florida will last into the next decade.

Yeah, a bitter, nasty three way GOP primary would have left the nominee short on cash and damaged, letting Fratrick Murphy win the seat.

Rubio was never going to be an easy knock out. For all of his weaknesses he is a fundraising machine and had enough money to bury any Democrat. It's a testament to Murphy's strength that this race is still pretty close.

Jeb Bush was a fundraising machine & Trump spend little n destroyed him. Ads are important for people with low name recognition & in close contests but no1 wins in such convincing fashion due to money.

Murphy has serious flaws. And Rubio is a strong performer among Hispanics as he looked way less racist & more understanding than any GOP Presidential candidate. He is also doing better among blacks than others probably. So his minority performance is giving him the edge.

But Feingold has shown that a strong progressive with guts, vision can be a real handful for the GOP!

As most of the non-western panhandle part of the state is trending slightly D, Miami-Dade is becoming very elastic with moderate and/or Hispanic Republicans. That's what Rubio is doing that no one expected: overperforming in Miami-Dade.

Presidential races do not equal senate races. It's far easier to bury someone in a senate race.

Rep. Murphy is a weak candidate who appeared strong. His scandals keep dragging him down and he looks and acts like a typical politician. The democrats have no bench in florida. they only have one person remaining: Rep. Gwen Graham.

For years Florida Democrats relied on support from the state's retirement community.  G.I./Silent generation were largely Democrat-voting, even in Florida (remember: Al Gore's strongest age demographic in FL was those aged +65).  The G.I./Silent generation olds have largely been replaced by Boomer olds, who are a much more Republican-voting constituency.  This "bottoming out" of Democratic support in the retirement community have made statewide races incredibly difficult for Democrats in the past few election cycles.